如何交易新的沃什美联储 | 鲍勃·希恩

美联储政策底线本质上是市场的一种预期：只要风险资产跌得足够狠，美联储就会出手干预，对吧？

The Fed put is essentially the market's assumption that if risk assets fall hard enough, the Fed's going step in, right?

大家当时都说，别担心，美联储会来救市的。

People were like, don't worry, the Fed's coming in.

每次市场大跌，大家就喊，别怕，赶紧买，赶紧抄底。

Every time there's a big sell off, don't worry, buy, buy, buy the sell off.

我觉得沃什一直在明确传递一个信号：那种时代已经结束了。

And I think Warsh has very much tried to signal that that's gone.

那种情况不会再回来了。

That's not going to be back.

我认为他彻底消除这种预期的力度是相当明显的。

I think the degree that he's removed it is meaningful.

我觉得这应该会改变投资者对美联储政策的整体看法。

And I think it's something that should change the way investors perceive kind of Fed policy.

如果我观察美联储，发现他们不再那么直白地传达意图，那我就会更快地降低风险敞口。

If I'm looking at the Fed and I'm like, okay, they're not going to be as direct about what they're trying to tell us, then I'm going to be a little bit quicker to cut risk.

现在的情况没那么清晰了。

Things aren't as clear as they should be.

我觉得这让人更倾向于采取防御性策略。

And I think that lends itself towards a more defensive posture.

最关键的一点是，现在市场上有两种交易思路，这也是我试图从市场反应角度来理解的方式。

Most important takeaways is that there are two trades now, and this is the way, like, I'm really trying to frame it in terms of the market reaction.

有一种是

There is the

福特的业绩指引不构成任何投资或产品的买卖建议。

Nothing said on Ford guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.

本播客仅作信息参考，节目中任何人的观点均为个人意见，不代表财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的立场。

This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.

我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队可能持有节目中讨论的公司基金或项目头寸。

Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.

一如既往，投资区块链技术存在风险，相关条款和条件适用。

As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, and conditions apply.

自己做足功课。

Do your own research.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

欢迎回到《前瞻指引》的又一期节目，今天很高兴请到Lighthouse Macro的鲍勃·希恩做客。

Welcome back to another episode of Forward Guidance, and excited to have a new guest on the show, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro.

鲍比，大概一年前吧，我就开始注意到你了。

Bobby, you kinda came onto my radar about maybe a year or so ago now.

你那时候在X平台上发了很多非常棒的内容。

Started to put out a lot of really good content on on x.

而且那时候，这些内容还没挂你的个人品牌Lighthouse Macro。

And I think at the time, it wasn't even under your your personal business on the Lighthouse Macro.

我当时就在想，这人是谁？

And I was like, who is this guy?

内容真不错。

This is some really good stuff.

所以，真该早点请你来节目做客了。

So, yeah, wildly overdue to get you on the show.

欢迎来到《Forward Guidance》。

And, yeah, welcome to Forward Guidance.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

能上这个节目真的很荣幸。

It's it's great to be on here.

Felix，你和《Forward Guidance》一直做得特别出色，邀请的嘉宾也都很棒，你们其实正在切入一个很多人还没跟上的宏观新阶段。

Felix, obviously, you and Forward Guidance do some great stuff, and and you have some great guests, and I think are kind of attacking that new era of macro that, you know, some people have been slow to get around to.

所以今天能来和你聊聊，我特别开心。

So I'm excited to be on here and chat with you today.

明白。

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

完全同意

100%.

我也是

Likewise.

我想先了解一下你的职业路径，你是怎么看待宏观经济学的？你最关注哪些关键点？

I want to just start off with just getting a bit of a better understanding of your career path, like how you think about macro, what are the key most important points that you look at?

对

Yeah.

你是怎么走到今天这一步，创办了Lighthouse Macro并做现在这些工作的？

Like how did you get to this point of launching Lighthouse Macro and what you do today?

当然可以

Yeah, sure.

我的职业道路算是比较非传统的，简单说就是自己开了一个宏观研究团队。

So I've taken a bit of a, I guess, a non traditional route to kind of running my own macro shop, let's call it.

我职业生涯一开始是在美国银行，负责一个投资组合管理团队。

I started my career at Bank of America and I was on a portfolio management team.

我们团队的职责是双重的。

We were kind of a dual mandate team.

也就是说，一方面我们管理一个大型宏观股票策略，管理规模大约是120亿美元。

What I mean by that is on one hand, we ran a large cap macro equity strategy that was had about a billion, billion 2 in assets.

这个策略本质上是纯多头，但以SMA形式提供给内部的投资经理使用。

And it was basically you run it like a long only, but it was offered in an SMA format to internal portfolio managers.

但它本质上是一个自上而下的股票策略。

But it was an equity top down strategy.

我刚加入团队时，那个领域其实并没有专门做宏观分析的人。

And we really didn't have a macro guy kind of in that space when I first joined the team.

其他团队成员更偏向自下而上的分析，但我们都很看重宏观视角。

Some of the other team members were kind of more bottoms up directed, but we really liked kind of the macro view space.

于是我逐渐成了团队里主要负责宏观观点构建的人。

I kind of took over as one of the premier macro guys in terms of, you know, formulating our views for that strategy.

不管是行业轮动，还是这方面的其他看法。

And, you know, whether that was sector waiting, or, you know, viewpoints of that regard.

但这个团队的另一部分还是一个多元资产团队。

But then the other part of that team was it was multi asset team as well.

所以我们还管理着各种机构性的多元资产组合，无论是高净值个人，还是机构客户，比如养老基金之类的。

So we also managed kind of institutional multi asset portfolios, whether it was high net worth individuals or, you know, institutionals, we had our pension funds and things of that nature.

所以，我把股票策略里的宏观视角，和多元资产类别的宏观视角结合起来——关注固定收益、大宗商品，甚至私募等方方面面。

And so really putting together both a macro viewpoint from an equity strategy standpoint, and then a macro viewpoint from multi asset class, where you're looking at fixed income, where you're looking at commodities, and kind of the whole gamut of things, privates even as well.

这让我职业生涯的起步特别棒，我觉得这种方式还挺独特的，因为很多搞宏观的人都是先做研究，之后才慢慢形成自己的投资框架。

So it was a really cool way to start my career and I think a pretty unique way to start my career because I think a lot of people in the macro space come into it from a research first standpoint and then kind of formulate and be like, here's my book afterwards.

我则是直接被扔进了火坑。

I got thrown into the fire, so to speak.

从很早开始，我就得用投资逻辑来支撑自己的观点。

And, you know, from early on, I had to, you know, back up my thoughts with an investment thesis.

我很幸运，团队特别支持我，信任我，给了我一个绝佳的早期机会，去检验自己的思维方式。

And I was fortunate to be on a team that really kind of nurtured that and they trusted me and it gave me like a really great kind of early opportunity to, you know, test the way I think.

当然，不是每次想法都对，但作为一个刚入行的年轻人，这种反馈特别宝贵。

And, you know, it's not always going to be right, but that's great feedback when you're a young guy in the industry.

我就是从那里起步的，后来大部分职业生涯其实都待在这个团队里。

And so I started there and that's been honestly the bulk of my career was on that team.

之后，我去了几家做宏观策略的公司。

And then after that, I actually went to a couple of macro shops.

我去了特拉汉宏观，和弗朗索瓦·特拉汉一起工作。

I went to Trahan Macro, where I worked with Francois Trahan.

我相信很多人对他都不陌生。

I'm sure a lot of people are familiar with him.

他后来自己创办了公司。

He started his own firm.

听说他现在应该在蒙特利尔银行了。

I think he's now actually at BMO.

不过我在特拉汉宏观刚起步的时候就加入了他的团队。

But I was with Truhan in the early days of Truhan Macro.

后来我暂时离开了岗位，重新回学校读书。

And then I actually stepped away and went back to school.

我一直都是花旗银行里那个特别迷数据的人，这么说吧。

So I had always been kind of the data geek, let's call it, at Bank of America especially.

我回去念书，专门学数据科学。

And I went back to school to learn data science.

我一直坚信，做判断得靠数据说话。

I'd always kind of been, I'm a pretty firm believer in trying to back up your beliefs with numbers.

我去了一家叫Brain Station的学校，专心打磨自己的数据科学技能，试着把这些方法用到宏观分析里。

And I went back to the school called Brain Station and really just kind of hone my data science skills and tried to impart that into a macro landscape.

之后我去了家叫Strom Capital Management的宏观对冲基金。

And then from there, I went to a macro hedge fund called Strom Capital Management.

他们做的是主观的全球宏观交易，但想引入数据驱动的分析，找一个懂这套方法的人，把数字真正用起来。

They do discretionary global macro, but they wanted to really bring in kind of a data driven analysis to that and, you know, have somebody who had had that skill set and put their kind of numbers around that.

所以这事儿特别适合我。

And so that was a great fit.

他是通过迈克·库尔贝尔找到我的，他是那里的投资经理，就是通过推特注意到我的，跟你找到我的方式一样。

Had found me from, Mike Koolbell is the PM there and he had found me from Twitter and, you know, just how you found me.

其实那里是找人的好地方，我该说是在X平台上。

It's a great place to find or X, I should say.

那里特别适合结识有宏观思维的人。

Great place to find kind of macro thinkers.

之后我去了Equalend，那是全球顶尖的融券数据公司。

And then the last stop for that was I was at Equalend, which is the kind of the premier place for short sale data in the world.

我主要是给他们的数据加上宏观视角来分析。

And so it was putting a macro spin on kind of their data that they had.

从贝莱德到各种小型养老基金，再到加州教师退休基金，全都用过他们的服务。

It was, you know, from everywhere from BlackRock to your smaller pension funds to your California Teachers Retirement Fund.

所有做空头头寸的机构都会经过那里。

And everybody who's running a short book ran through there.

那段时间我学会了把数据科学课程中学到的东西，跟宏观分析结合起来，跟那些使用这类数据的对冲基金沟通。

And it was really learning to take the data from that data science course and the data science schooling and put that with a macro and be able to talk to the hedge funds that were using that kind of data.

在整个过程中，包括我还在上学的时候，我就创办了Lighthouse Macro，就是想把自己的想法分享出来，找个地方谈谈我对数据的观察，跟大家交流。

And throughout this process, and back when I was at school, I started Lighthouse Macro and I kind of just wanted to put my thoughts out there and have a place where I could speak my mind about what I'm seeing within the data and share it with people.

我一直都很喜欢能把自己的宏观观点表达出来。

I think that's always been something I like is being able to kind of share my macro views.

没想到还真火了。

And it honestly took off.

刚开始收到了不少特别好的反馈。

I had some really great feedback in the beginning.

有几篇文章让我有了一点名气。

I got a couple pieces, got me, let's call it some notoriety.

后来还被邀请上了几个播客。

And I got asked to be on a couple podcasts.

我本来只是想想而已，没想到这事进展得比我预想的快多了。

And next thing you know, I was kind of thinking about it and I was like, hey, I think eventually I wanted to do this, but it's kind of happened quicker than I thought.

现在就到了这儿。

And here we are.

我直接就一头扎进来了，其实我们正式成立才一月份的事儿。

I've kind of dove right in and past, you know, we officially only formed in January.

所以算起来，也就是一月底才开始。

So it's been, you know, January, the end of January.

到现在差不多五六个月了。

So it's been about five, six months now.

这事儿挺让人兴奋的。

It's exciting.

我真正想做的，就是把那些经过验证、真金白银实测过的机构级研究，用更通俗易懂的方式带给普通人。

And yeah, really the goal of what I'm trying to do is bring kind of institutional quality research that has been proven and, you know, used on actual real dollars and bring it to people in a way that is a little more layman speak.

我尽量避免用太专业的术语。

You know, I try not to get overly, you know, technical with things.

有时候说起来简单，做起来还真不容易。

Sometimes it's a little harder, easier said than done.

简单说，这就是Lighthouse Macro的初衷。

But basically, that's what Lighthouse Macro is.

它旨在把我过去所有积累的东西——数据、宏观分析、实际投资——整合起来，分享给更多人。

It's trying to take that culmination of everything I've done, the data side, the macro side, the actual investing side, and bring it to people.

到目前为止，大家的反馈都非常好。

And so far, the feedback's been great.

很明显，这些经历把我带到了今天这个位置。

You know, clearly, it's it's ending me up here.

所以我特别高兴能在这里。

So I'm I'm excited to be here.

是的。

Yeah.

太棒了。

Awesome.

对，没错。

I yeah.

我记得当初有个帖子特别火，讲的是国债拍卖数据，那种思路真的非常独特。

I feel like I remember one of those initial threads that kinda went around was something related to treasury auction data that was just, like, very exceptional and and and unique thought.

我就是觉得，确实如此。

And I just, like yeah.

当你讲到自己背景的时候，那种更注重数据、从数据出发来思考宏观的方式，真的特别有道理。

It just really makes sense when you talk through your your background of that of, like, being a lot more data driven towards how you think about macro.

我觉得这正好可以引出一个很好的话题，就是你整体的宏观分析框架是怎样的。

And I think it it might lead into a a nice point to start this conversation here, which is just around how you like, what your overall macro framework is.

我发现你看待国债拍卖数据的方式特别独特，完全是基于实证和量化分析，而不是凭感觉。

Because I find very like, what was unique about the way you looked at, say, that Treasury auction data was it just felt like it was a lot more empirical and just quantitatively driven than, Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

有时候，人们谈宏观观点，就是那种‘哇’的感觉。

You know, sometimes, like, people's macro views are just like, wow.

比如有人会说一些话，但你其实不太清楚他到底在说什么。

You know, like, this person might say this thing, which, like you know, it's just I don't know.

有数据支撑的时候，才让人觉得踏实。

It's nice when there's actually data there.

所以我想听听你是怎么形成这套框架的。

So I want to hear about how you get to that point in your framework.

当然。

Certainly.

我完全同意你的看法，这正是我信念的核心：宏观领域信息太多，但很多时候感觉像是凭空想象，缺乏现实依据，就是看到个新闻标题，凭感觉下结论。

And, you know, I couldn't agree with you more and that's kind of like the focal point, let's call it, of what I believe in is that there's a lot in the macro space and I think you kind of just hinted at it that it feels like it's pulled from the stars a little bit not grounded in reality and a little bit like, Oh, I read this headline and I felt this way.

这对受众其实很不公平，我相信你和你的听众都会认同，很多人其实很想了解这些内容，也希望真正弄明白。

And I think that is a disservice to the end user because I think there's a lot of people, I'm sure you can agree, I'm sure your listeners can agree that there's a lot of people who like, who want to know this stuff and want to understand it better.

不管他们是活跃的交易者，还是经营生意的人，都有人希望理解那些影响他们生活的经济和宏观因素。

And whether they're even an active trader or just somebody running a business, like there's people who want to understand the economics, the macro of things that are affecting their lives.

但如果你只是凭自己的感觉，靠‘我看到这个新闻就怎么想’来解释，那就很难让人信服。

But it's a lot harder to, you know, give somebody that if you're kind of just pulling it out of your own feelings and you're in the, this is how I read this headline.

但如果你能用数据支撑观点，人们就会更有信心，知道你不是在瞎编乱造。

But if you can put numbers behind it, that is kind of going to give people that confidence that you're not just making stuff up, you know?

所以，我在Lighthouse Macro所做的，以及我思考问题的整个方式，就是力求每句话都有数据支撑。

And so basically, what I've done with Lighthouse Macro and what I've really tried to promote and kind of the entire way I think about things is I want to put data behind everything I say.

我想用数据来支撑每一个观点。

I want to put numbers behind it.

但我也清楚，历史上统计结果占优，并不意味着每次都会如此。

But I also want to be aware that just because statistics are in your favor historically does not mean it is going to happen every time.

所以我通常从两个方面入手。

So what I try to do is twofold.

一方面，我会用数据说明：未来大概率会怎样，对吧？

I try to put the data behind it, say, here's where the probabilities lie going ahead, right?

另一方面，也是更重要的一点——我收到过很多积极反馈，这让我确信大家真的需要这个：我会明确指出，我可能在哪些地方完全错了，对吧？

Here is, you know, what the data has historically showed us, but more so, and I think this is kind of the important part and the one part that I've gotten like really solid feedback on and it has kind of given me the confidence that people are looking for this is I try to always be like, here's where I could be definitely wrong, right?

数据能告诉你通常会发生什么，但也能提醒你：你的假设出错了，因为实际情况没发生，你设定的某个阈值或数值被突破了。

Data can tell you, you know, this is what usually happens, but it can also tell you, hey, your assumption on this was wrong because this didn't happen and you hit a threshold or a number.

所以，我看待宏观问题的整体方式就是：尽量根据概率行事，或者说，跟着数据和数学规律走，尊重历史统计所揭示的趋势。

And so, I guess the overall kind of way I approach macro is exactly that where I'm trying to play the percentages, let's call it, or play the probabilities, and you always want to kind of lean towards what the math, the data, the numbers have historically kind of shown you.

但同时，你也得保持可证伪性，给自己设定一个明确的节点：好了，我错了，该调整了。

But you also want to be falsifiable and have a point in time where you're like, okay, look, I was wrong and change the number.

我觉得我努力做到的一点就是意识到，我们没人能每次都对。

And I think one of the things that I try to do is be aware of that, like none of us are going to be right 100% of time.

我曾经在美银管理过一个真金白银投入的投资组合，团队里都是特别聪明的人。

I mean, I ran a portfolio at Bank of America with real money behind it and with some really smart guys.

前几天我还跟一位前联合投资经理一起吃了早餐。

I actually just had breakfast with a former co PM the other day.

我们聊了聊这个话题。

We were chatting about this.

我们那段时间表现不错，但也不是每次都能猜对。

Like, we had a good run, but we weren't right every time.

这根本不可能做到。

And it's not possible.

所以我觉得，这对任何投资领域都适用。

And so, I think that can be true for any part of investing.

但在宏观投资中，很多人不靠数据说话，就更容易说：‘哎，我这次错了。’

But I think in macro, when there's a lot of people who kind of don't put numbers behind it, it's a lot easier to then be like, Hey, I was wrong here.

但你知道，我已经带你过了一遍，其实早就有迹象表明我可能错了。

But you know, I walked you through what could have told me I was wrong beforehand.

这样你就可以以一个坦诚的态度去跟读者沟通。

And you can then go to your readers like an honest person.

我觉得这真的能帮上大忙。

And I think that helps out a lot.

所以我一直努力这样做事：把过往的情况摆出来，指出哪里可能出错。

And so that's really the way I try to approach things is being like, hey, here's history, here's where it could be wrong.

关键是对自己采取的方法保持诚实。

And just being honest about the approach.

我觉得在这个行业里，人们其实特别渴望这种态度，因为有些东西太玄乎了，让人觉得高高在上，遥不可及。

I think that people probably, you know, really desire for that in this industry where some things can feel so heady and kind of, you know, above them sometimes.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我非常感谢你这么做。

I appreciate that a lot.

好的。

Alright.

那咱们直接进入正题吧。

So let's get let's get into the the heat of things here.

当然。

Absolutely.

军事政策方面最近确实有不少动静。

Obviously, a lot going on in the military policy side of things.

新任美联储主席上任了。

We have a new Fed chair.

凯文·沃什接任了。

Kevin Warsh came in.

你之前写过一些关于会前铺垫和会后影响的内容。

You've been writing a bit about some of the lead up and the implications afterwards the meeting.

围绕你的观点，你提到认为美联储的‘保底机制’已经失效了。

And surrounding your thesis is you wrote about how you believe that the Fed put is dead.

能跟我详细说说，你是怎么得出这个结论的吗？会议之后你的想法有什么变化？这段时间你又有哪些新的认识？

Walk me through how get to that point and how you're thinking about it after the meeting and what you've learned since.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，所谓美联储的‘保底机制’，其实就是市场普遍相信：只要风险资产跌得够狠，美联储就会出手干预，对吧？

So I think what basically mean by that is that the Fed put is essentially the market's assumption that if risk assets fall hard enough, the Fed is going to step in, right?

这种情形过去确实一直存在。

And that has been true.

可以说，在上一任美联储主席任内，这种情况几乎从未改变。

I mean, it was basically true for the entire last Fed chair we had.

就连耶伦时期，大家也总说：别担心，美联储会来救市的。

And even Yellen, I would say some of it where people were like, Don't worry, the Fed's coming in.

每次市场大幅下跌，人们都劝你：别慌，趁机买入。

Every time there's a big sell off, don't worry, buy the sell off.

我认为沃什一直在明确传递这个信号：那种时代已经结束了。

And I think Warsh has very much tried to signal that that's gone.

不会再回来了。

That's not going to be back.

他想把货币政策带向一个与以往完全不同的方向。

He wants to, you know, take monetary policy more broadly in a different direction than it has been.

他在这方面一直表达得很清楚。

I think he's been pretty vocal about that.

如果你回溯一下他的履历，就会发现他一向敢于公开表达自己的观点，尤其是那种偏鹰派的立场。

If you kind of have studied any of his history, kind of going back, he's been more vocal about his beliefs and kind of his hawkish, let's call it views in general.

一旦把这种‘美联储看跌期权’的预期彻底打破，市场就不再只是盯着美联储利率了——过去大家只关注短期利率，但他同时还在扩大资产负债表。

And I think just taking that Fed put away just changes the dynamic from a purely Fed funds rate story, where a lot of people watch the Fed and they're watching the short end, but he's also building up that balance sheet.

当你同时改变这两个方面时，收益率曲线和宏观局势就变成了两个独立的故事。

And I think when you kind of change both of those parts of things, it makes the curve story and the macro story kind of two stories.

很长一段时间以来，这些因素都被混在一起，当成一个单一的故事来看待。

And I think for a long time, a lot of it was a one story kind of, you know, put together.

所以我认为，把美联储的救市承诺彻底放下，意味着那种每当风险资产大幅下跌就立刻出手干预的惯性思维，已经不复存在了。

And so I think retiring the Fed put as my thesis is, is that the reflex is generally kind of gone that you can just come in every time risk assets fall hard.

你以为只要进场买入，就万事大吉了，这种想法现在行不通了。

You can buy and you're going be fine.

别再觉得降息一定会来，流动性永远都会在那儿等着你。

You know, rate cuts are going to happen, liquidity is going to be there.

市场总会有人出来稳住局面，给价格托个底——这种预期，现在也慢慢消失了。

There's going to be a softer tone, something to put, you know, a floor, let's call it under prices.

过去十年，这种隐形的保护伞一直都在，实实在在地存在着。

And that backstop has kind of been real all through the last ten years, let's call it.

投资者早就把这一点算进了价格里。

And investors, you know, you kind of price that.

回想过去十年每次市场抛售，大家最后都会说：‘没事，利率马上会降，我们有救了。’

I think back to a lot of the sell offs, a lot of the sell offs over the past decade kind of followed up with people being like, Oh, it's fine.

利率一降，危机就过去了——这种依赖心理，现在不再成立了。

Rates are going to come down and we're going to be saved.

我觉得新任美联储主席和沃什的政策，以及他目前所传达的信号，都在一定程度上消除了这种预期。即便我可能没完全说对，它并没有彻底消失，但他消除的程度已经相当显著了。

And I just think that this new Fed chair and Warsh's kind of policies and what he's echoed so far, of remove that to a degree that even if I'm not fully right that it's fully gone, I think the degree that he's removed it is meaningful.

我认为这会改变投资者对美联储政策的看法，也会改变他们看待这些会议和降息的方式。

And I think it's something that should change the way investors perceive kind of Fed policy and the way investors should think about these meetings and these cuts.

所以，是的，我觉得这是一种令人兴奋的新动态。很多人可能不太习惯，尤其是那些年轻的交易员，或者你们播客里的一些听众，他们可能还没经历过那种没有这种预期的时期。

So, yeah, I think it's an exciting kind of a new dynamic that I think a lot of people maybe haven't been used to, especially some of like, you know, the younger traders or some of the people on your podcast haven't even been here kind of for a time when that wasn't the case.

所以我觉得这挺有意思的。

So I think it's just a pretty cool.

我觉得这是个很酷的机会，而且挺令人兴奋的，完全同意。

I think I say cool, but like an exciting opportunity to Totally.

可以学到不少新东西，也能更好地理解宏观环境，对。

To learn kind of new things and and understand kind of a new Mhmm.

从这个角度来看。

Macro regime in that regard.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

我不确定你有没有深入研究过这些数据，但我现在好奇的是，既然不再有某种形式的前瞻性指引了，比如会议后新闻发布会可能会减少。

I'm not sure you've been digging into the data here, but something I'm wondering about now is, okay, we have this implication of no more forward guidance in in some form or another, like, probably less conference press conferences.

对。

Yep.

甚至可能不再发布点阵图。

Potentially no dot plots.

总的来说，利率升降预期如何反映在收益率曲线上，将会变得动态得多。

Like, in general, it's gonna be a lot more dynamic for how rate hike or cut expectations get priced into the curve.

你对这种定价变化怎么看？特别是期货市场的定价？

How are you thinking about that in terms of, like, just sofa pricing?

你预计波动性会加大吗？

Like, do you expect more volatility?

从减少口头指引，到这些变化如何逐步影响市场定价，你觉得整个过程会怎么发展？

And, like, how do you how do you see the sequence of events from going from, like, less words to, like, how it gets priced into markets?

是的。

Yeah.

我本来想说，我之前做研究时看到过一个数字。

So I was going to say, I I I have a number somewhere that I was I was doing some research.

发言内容从三百四十字缩减到了一百七十字左右。

Like, the words got cut from, like, three forty to one seventy.

数字可能不完全准确，但确实大幅减少了。文字指引的缩减，就像你刚才说的，这是一方面，但同时也该引发其他变化。

I I might not be exact on that, but it got cut significantly, The actual guidance in terms of the words, which I think that is where you start as you just kind of said that, like, okay, that's one thing, but then that should signal other things.

没错，你正好说到点子上了。

And I think, yes, I think you just hit on it.

这确实会带来更大波动，因为少了那种安抚性的表态——你可以把它比作保龄球道两边的挡板，挡板少了，大家就更容易各执己见，市场上各方交易者都会进场。

That does, it should signal more volatility because less kind of reassurance, let's call it, I mean, if it's bumpers in a bowling alley or less kind of things around sending you down a path means that more opinions can come into it and there's traders on every side of that trade, right?

不确定性降低了，自然会有更多人持不同看法。

There's more people who are going to disagree because there is less certainty, so to speak.

市场从来就没有绝对的确定性，但我觉得这确实打开了大门，让结果的范围变得更广，不只是对会议，也不只是对点阵图。

Not that there's ever going to be certainty in the markets, but I totally think it opens up the door, let's so to speak, for a wider range of outcomes, not only for the meetings, not only for the dot plots.

比如沃什本人，我记得他就没参与点阵图投票。

I mean, Warsh himself, I think, you know, he abstained from a plot.

我记得我最近那篇文章里提到过，18位官员中有9位突然上调了对9月和12月加息的预期。

And we had, I think I was talking about this in my recent piece, even just the jump to nine out of the 18 officials, right, jumped up in terms of the hikes in September and December.

现在有更多人改变了自己的看法。

We more people now, you know, changing their tune.

我觉得，美联储发出的信息越是摇摆不定，市场就越能感受到这种波动。

And I think that kind of volatility in what you're hearing from the Fed only then, you know, it displays itself in the markets.

实际的市场结果也会变得更加不稳定。

You're going to get more volatility in the actual results.

我觉得这么说并不过分。

I think that's not necessarily a crazy thing to say.

这看起来是合乎逻辑的推论。

I think that seems like the logical step.

至少我是这么想的：这实际上为更多可能性打开了大门。

And that's where I think about it at least is that I think it just opens the door for more scenarios.

在我看来，这应该提醒交易员们要更谨慎一些，别那么笃定。如果美联储不再提前给出明确指引，那作为交易员，我手里还有一份我们发布的报告，我会觉得：既然他们不再清晰地告诉我们下一步怎么走，那我最好更快地降低风险，别把所有赌注都押在一个方向上。

And if anything that should, in my view, signal to traders that there should be a little bit more caution in terms of being so certain because if the Fed isn't going to guide you ahead, then if I'm a trader and I am, and we have a book that we publish alongside of our calls, but if I'm looking at the Fed and I'm like, okay, they're not going to be as guided forward and not as direct about what they're trying to tell us, then I'm going to be a little bit quicker to cut risk or I'm going to maybe not overly lean on one bet hitting.

所以我觉得这改变了整个局面，很多人应该也会这么想。

And so I think that changes the dynamic and I think a lot of people would probably think that way.

现在押对了可能赚得盆满钵满，因为最终结果还不明朗，如果你站在多数人相反的一边还猜对了，那收益会非常可观，对吧？

It can either pay off big now because the end result isn't so known that if you are right and you were on the other side of the majority of the trade, you're gonna hit it big, right?

但中间会有很多波动，因为现在各种评论员都在各自解读，而过去十年，一直都是美联储在明确告诉你：我们正在做什么，我们是怎么想的。

But you can also have all these fluctuations in between them because it's going to be kind of the talking heads takeover they did their own interpretations, whereas it's historically for the past decade, it's been the Fed that has basically walked you to, here's what we're doing and here's how we're thinking about it.

所以我觉得波动性会加大。

And so I think it will increase the volatility.

我觉得现在更需要去仔细琢磨他们那一百多句话里的意思，而不是像过去那样，信息量是现在的两倍甚至三倍。

I think it will increase the kind of the necessity to be able to parse the language of those 120 whatever words they use versus the double or triple that that it's been in the past.

但总的来说，这会让宏观领域的环境变得更加动态，而不是像以前那样，大家都清楚接下来会发生什么。

But yeah, I think mostly it just makes it for a more dynamic, let's call it landscape in the macro space rather than, you know, everybody knows what's going on.

美联储的‘救市承诺’确实，过去十年里，即使有这个保障，也不是每个人都能每次都猜对，但它至少给了我们一点确定性，而这种确定性，现在肯定没那么强了。

I think the Fed put, yes, not everybody's going to be right all the time, even in the past decade with the Fed put, but I think that gave you kind of a little bit of certainty that maybe is not as much there nowadays, for sure.

对。

Yeah.

我完全同意。

I couldn't I couldn't agree more.

所以很明显，一方面是因为美联储缺乏信息，导致大家更重视去解读这些内容。

So obviously, like, one side of the coin is the lack of information from the Fed leading to more importance in in parsing through it.

另一方面，我想知道，你对经济数据的使用有什么看法？

The other side of that as well is, I'm curious, how do you think about the utilization of economic data out of that?

比如现在，如果美联储的指引越来越少，你觉得像非农数据、CPI，甚至像乔尔的数据这类经济指标会变得更重要吗？

Like, if if we're getting to a point now where, yeah, there's gonna be less guidance, like, do you think it's gonna become do you think economic data releases like an NFP or a CPI or even just like Joel's data, stuff like that?

你是怎么看待这些数据的？

Like, how are you thinking about utilizing that?

你分析这些数据的方式有没有发生变化？

Is it Is it changing for how you look at those data sets?

还是说你依然只是拿到数据就直接反应，形成自己的判断，而不是等着看美联储怎么解读这些经济数据？

Or is it still just like, look, I'm gonna get the data in and react to it and form my view less so just like waiting to hear what does a Fed share think about that economic data?

这其实是个非常好的问题。

That's actually a really great question.

我觉得这恰恰是我目前在Lighthouse Network内部一直在思考的核心问题，也是我平时做研究的重点：这个数据集到底有多重要？

I would say like that's a lot at kind of the heart of what I'm internally like at Lighthouse Network, I'm trying to do right now is, and a lot of the work in general I try to do is like, how important is this data set, right?

或者，这次数据发布有多关键？

Or how important is this release?

我得说一句，对所有听的人而言，我从不在数据发布前一天布局交易，指望靠当天的波动获利，我的投资周期要长得多。

And I will say this, just for, you know, anybody listening, I'm not a guy who's going to I don't position the day before data release to get a trade off the day You know, I'm a little longer term than that.

我也没长到认为数据发布完全无关紧要的地步。

I'm not out so long that I do think there's a point where you're so long that the data releases don't matter at all.

我不是那种打算持有五十年的人。

And it's like I'm holding for fifty years.

我不是那个极端，但可以肯定的是，我绝不会靠这些数据发布做日内交易。不过，你刚才其实点醒了我，谢谢——我认为这确实改变了我们看待数据的方式。如果美联储不再频繁表达他们的看法，对吧？

I'm not that, but I just mean, I'm not day trading these releases by any means, but I do think, and you kind of led me here, thank you, but like, I do think it does definitely change how you should think about it because if the Fed isn't going to talk to you through their thinking as much, right?

那我们在解读数据时，就不该再那么依赖他们的表态了。

Then you should put less reliance on that as you're determining the data.

至少我是这么做的：不再过多关注Warsh或者其他委员会成员怎么看，而是纯粹从数据本身、从数字出发，直接根据事实来调整我的判断。

You should, the way at least I'm approaching it is that I should not necessarily take into account as much of what Warsh's view or anybody kind of on the committee is thinking about it and just look at it purely from a data, purely from a number standpoint, and just align myself that way.

随着时间推移，我觉得沃什这个人平时都吃些什么？

And then over time, I think, you know, Warsh, what does he eat?

才过去一周而已，还没到一个月，那些最初的讲话刚发生不久。他在这个职位上还很新，不是说年纪小，而是刚上任，慢慢我们会更清楚这些会议的运作和影响。

It's a month, not even, it's been a week since, you know, some of these original talks, but like he's so young in it or new in this role, not as a man, we will but over time kind of get a little bit of a better idea of the meetings and their impact.

但我觉得，现在这确实改变了我看待数据的方式。

But I think right now it does change how I come at the data itself.

我不再那么看重‘美联储正在关注这个数字’这一点了。

I don't put as much impact like, okay, I know that the Fed is looking at this number.

他们关注核心CPI，或者像过去那样关注PCE，这些我都清楚。

They're looking at core CPI or, you know, they're looking at PCE historically as they have.

所以我现在更多是拿这个数据、这个数字、市场的反应，去跟历史做对比。

And so it's just more of like a, okay, I'm going to test this data set, this number, this reaction to the number against history.

看看过去市场通常是怎么反应的。

And this is what markets have historically done.

现在要判断美联储到底在其中起了多大作用，确实有点难，因为他们好像已经把这部分影响给淡化了。这说起来挺有意思的，但同时也让事情变得更复杂了。

And then I think it's a little hard right now to be like, here is then that little piece of that, that the Fed effects, because I think they've kind of removed that part of it, which I mean, makes it exciting, but it does make it a little more difficult.

这确实改变了我对这些讲话的看法——我不再那么看重那些话了，哪怕总共就一两百个词，会议本身也很短。我觉得他已经暗示我们，这些话其实没那么重要。

And it definitely changes how I think about it just in terms of, I don't want to put as much, you know, onus on those words, even though there's only 120 of them, 150 of, you know, as short as the conferences might be, I don't want to put as much on what they're saying because he's kind of signaled to us, I think, that they aren't going to be the most important thing.

他未来也可能会变，对吧？

He could change, right?

这位美联储主席和以前的主席相比，似乎真的有不同的思路。

It seems like this Fed chair versus past Fed chairs, maybe he could have a different view.

他早就表达过自己长期的历史观点，但也明确说了，不再提供前瞻性指引，所以你们应该更关注当时、当天、那一刻的实际数据。

He's signaled his long term historical views for kind of a while, but he has signaled that there's no forward guidance and therefore you should rely on kind of what the actual data is that time, that day, that moment.

所以我觉得，现在更需要回归纯粹的数据分析和数据科学，至少在他任期的这个阶段，行为层面的解读没那么关键了。

And so I do think it comes back to then more just pure data study and data science and less of the behavioral side in the beginning of this kind of stretch of his tenure.

至少这是我目前的关注重点。

At least how I'm focusing on it.

完全同意。

Totally.

没错。

Yeah.

好吧。

So okay.

所以我们来看经济数据这边的情况，以及它是如何反应的。

So we have the the economic data side of things and how that reacts.

然后呢。

And then yeah.

我想聊聊市场反应到目前为止是怎么样的，以及你是怎么看的。

I wanna get into how the the market based reaction has gone through so far and how you're thinking about that.

很明显，我们有收益率曲线的短端和长端。

So obviously, we have, know, you the short end of the yield of the yield curve, the long end.

我知道你也在关注信用利差。

I know you've been looking also at, like, credit spreads

对。

Yep.

期限溢价。

Term premia.

整个市场环境，到目前为止你看到什么？要知道，这不只是在反映沃什的说法，更是在提前预期或消化这些信息。

That whole landscape, like, what are you seeing so far in terms of the reaction knowing that it has to it's not just, like, reflecting what Warsh says, but it's trying to anticipate or discount it.

没错，到目前为止，你在这一块看到什么趋势？

Like, yeah, what are you seeing in that landscape so far?

对，正是如此。

Yeah, exactly.

这其实是个特别有意思的话题，我一直在和业内不少人讨论，包括我在公开文章里提到的，也包括我平时尊重的那些人的私下交流。

So this has actually been like a really fun one and like one I've been talking with, kind of some people across the space, both, you know, publicly in my pieces, but also like, you know, conversations I have with people who I respect.

我觉得最重要的一个结论是，现在市场上其实有两种交易逻辑，这也是我目前看待市场反应的核心框架。

And so I think one of the most, let's call it like the most important takeaways is that there are two trades now and this is the way like I'm really trying to frame it in terms of the market reaction.

目前短期端的情况是，我认为短期内就会发生。

There is the front end right now and I think that is going to happen in the near term.

这就是短期端的反应，表现为收益率曲线变平，短期利率上升。

It's kind of the front end reaction, which is this bear flattener where you're getting the short end moving higher.

我觉得我们已经看到这种走势了。

And I think we've kind of seen that.

我之前聊过不少，最近几周短期利率上涨得比长期利率快，尤其是那些通胀数据公布之后，短期端的变动特别明显，市场动作也主要集中在短期端。

I think I've talked about that a decent amount where we've seen the short end kind of move up quicker than the long end in more recent weeks, and especially kind of after some of these inflation prints and things of that nature, where we're getting this short end move and a lot of the actions happening on the short end.

但你得把这和长期端的情况分开来看，我觉得长期端还是一个供给问题，一个期限溢价的问题。

But then I think that's you have to separate it from what's going on in the long end, which is I still think a supply story, a term premium story.

我觉得现在又重新出现了这种情况——期限溢价对长期利率的影响再次变得重要了。

I think we're bringing back kind of this new thing where term premium is going to matter to the long end again.

长期端主要看供给，短期端嘛，当然还是由美联储主导，这点一直没变。

I think the long end really answers to supply and the short end is it's still obviously, it's always going to answer to the Fed.

但现在的反应方式，跟过去相比，没那么好预测了。

But I think that the way that it is reacted to is not necessarily as known as it has been in the past.

所以短期端现在波动挺大，变动频繁，而长期端的走势会慢一些，至少在我看来是这样——我依然认为长期利率目前会上行。

So we are getting this short end volatility, we're getting this kind of moves on the short end and the long end is going to be a slower trade, at least in my view that long end, I still believe the long end moves higher right now.

不过我觉得接下来一个月左右，焦点还是在短期端。

But I do think that the short end is the focus, let's call it, for the next, you know, month or so.

我们目前看到的是一个趋平的走势，短期利率在上升，而长期利率相对没怎么动。

And I think eventually, so we're getting this flattener, so to speak, where you're getting the short end higher and the long end isn't moving as much or relative at least.

我认为接下来的一个月左右，甚至可能更久一点，这才是重点。

And I think that is probably the focus over, you know, the next month or so, maybe a little longer.

但我觉得，随着资产负债表缩减的指引逐渐退出，供应端的因素会越来越明显，最终会推高长期利率。现在很多人太关注政策的鹰派立场及其与通胀的直接关联了。

But I think eventually, with removing kind of this guidance with the balance sheet reduction and everything we're kind of getting on the supply side, let's call it, of things, that is going to be the force that eventually takes that long end higher and where I think some people are so focused on kind of the hawkishness and its direct relation to inflation.

但这个故事背后还有更多内容。

And I think that there's more to that story.

我觉得这里头藏着一个潜在的交易机会。

And I think that is where there's a potential trade.

而且我觉得，市场到时候一定会有所反应。

And I think that's where you're going to get some market movement.

另外，你刚才提到市场力量，那我也顺便谈谈股市吧。

I also think, you know, you asked about just kind of market forces, it's okay, I'm going take it to equities too.

从这个角度看，再结合我们目前的持仓，这其实是个久期问题。

I think kind of in that regard and, you know, where our book is right now and kind of in that regard, this becomes a duration story.

考虑到久期风险，我认为现在这个策略正在奏效。

And given the duration risk, let's call it, I believe, and it's paying off today.

我最后留意的时候，医疗和必需消费品这类防御性板块，应该会从这种模糊的环境中受益——现在情况不够明朗，信号也不清晰，大家还在琢磨收益率曲线的变化，对吧？

I think the last I checked, you know, healthcare and staples and kind of these more defensive sectors are going to be the beneficiaries of kind of this muddied water, this environment where things are less clear, less signaled, and where people are sort of getting a read through on this curve movement, right?

就像我刚才说的，短期利率现在动静挺大的。

Where like I just said, you're getting kind of a lot of action on the short end.

而长期利率，我觉得是个几个月后才显现的走势，不是几周或一个月内能看出来的。

And that long end, I do believe is a kind of a longer term story out months rather than weeks to a month.

所以我觉得这时候会出现资金轮动，当然，你听到的那些关于AI和科技股的抢购热潮，确实也会带来一些切换，这点大家都知道。

And so I think that is where you're going to get some rotation, not necessarily, I mean, yes, you're going to get some from, you know, everything you're hearing with AI and everything in that regard, that tech kind of scramble that everybody's well aware of.

但我觉得，光是期限结构本身，就能说明问题：防御型股票通常期限较短，而长期科技股则属于期限较长的品种。

But I think also just given the pure duration, you know, value defensives are shorter duration equities, longer term tech names are going to be your longer duration equities.

我们目前的看法和持仓都是：在市场试图找到新平衡点的时候，应该更偏向防御。说白了，大家正在努力理解这套新规则——我不确定该不该叫它‘噪音’，但现在的环境确实比以往更模糊、更难判断。

And we are of the belief and we are currently positioned that you want to be more defensive in this time while things are trying to kind of find their level, let's call it, where people are trying to read through this kind of noise or not, I don't know if it's noise is the right word, but kind of this whole new regime and dynamic where things aren't less, things aren't as clear as they should be.

这自然让我们倾向于采取更防御的姿态，配置更多短期限的股票敞口。

And I think that lends itself towards a more defensive posture, a more short duration kind of equity exposure.

所以总结一下，我觉得收益率曲线的变化其实包含两个层面，对吧？

And yeah, so I do think, you know, just to wrap it up, like the curve, I think it's two moves, right?

而且我觉得这不只是两个动作，而是两个不同时间点的两次变动。

And I think not only is it two moves, but I think it's two timings of two moves.

我觉得短期部分先动，这正是我们过去一两周所看到和正在经历的情况。

I think that you've got the short end move first, and that's I think what we're kind of witnessing and have witnessed over the past, let's call it week, two weeks.

而从更长期来看，几个月到几个季度的时间范围内，长期部分会反应供给变化，以及外部买家减少的影响。

And then I think longer term, you know, out in the months to couple quarters kind of timeframe is that long end kind of answering to supply, answering to kind of the lack of outside buyers.

关于外国买家入场，其实有各种不同的解读方式。

You know, there's a lot of different ways to view like the foreign buyers stepping in.

但总体来看，我的看法是，这类买家变少了。

And I think generally, my broader view is that there's less of them.

有些数据表面上支持另一种说法，比如有人会说，如果从某个角度去看，买家数量其实没变。

And the data backs up in some regards, I've seen some kind of tricky or, you know, funny math around like, Oh, if you look at it this way, then there's actually just as many buyers.

我不太认同这种说法。

I don't necessarily agree with that.

总的来说，我们可以看到，外国买家相比以往明显在减少。

I think broadly speaking, we can see that mostly foreign buyers are dropping off compared to what they have been.

从长远来看，长期限的供给问题会逐渐显现。

And I think longer term that supply store becomes a thing for long end.

所以，我的理解是，短期利率现在更重要，而长期利率会在未来一段时间内才开始发挥作用。

So yeah, that's kind of my sequencing, so to speak, is that the short end kind of matters now and the long end will matter in the longer term.

我觉得得先出现这种极度平坦的走势，之后陡峭化才会一波一波地出现。

So I think you got to get this bare flattener to start and then the steepener kind of comes in waves afterwards.

而且，就像我说的，这还会对股票持仓产生影响。

And then again, like, like I said, that's going to affect the kind of the equity position.

从风险角度看，我们正看到比特币和黄金同时下跌。

Think we were seeing it kind of on a risk perspective where you're getting kind of both Bitcoin and gold selling off.

黄金大概跌了3%，同时你还能看到这种风险脱钩的现象，我觉得这对一些交易员，尤其是年轻交易员来说特别明显。

I think gold sold off like 3% And the other you're kind of seeing this dislocation of risk that I think is probably unique to some people, especially like the younger traders.

但就连一些有经验的老手，像我们这些经历过多次周期的人，也发现现在的走势跟过去的历史规律不太一样了。

But even some of the old, you know, some of us who've been around for the block, you know, we're we're seeing these moves that don't necessarily correlate with history and and how you're doing it.

作为一个极度依赖数据的人，看到这些非传统的全新数据点，确实挺有意思的。

So it it it's from a data from a guy who is very data driven, it's interesting to get these new kind of data points that are not the standard, so to speak.

是的

Mhmm.

对

Yeah.

这个说法真的很到位。

That's really great framing.

我最近也在琢磨一件事，你刚才说的那些，其实本质上都是关于实际收益率变化的预期。

Something I've been trying to figure out as well is so so a lot of what you talked about there, I would just, you know, characterize as, like, expectations around changes in real yields.

另外还有一个重要方面，过去十年我们已经非常熟悉了，就是流动性变化，或者干脆说，是资产负债表的操作。

And then there's also this, yeah, then there's also this other big component that we've become really used to over the last decade, which is just like changes in, I don't know if you wanna call it liquidity or just basically balance sheet games.

最近几个月，还有不少储备管理方面的购入行为。

And there's a whole bunch of stuff over there that you have the the reserve management purchases been going on the last few months.

还有监管放松，比如商业银行能购买的国债额度放宽了。

You have this deregulation that's been going on in terms of, like, how many treasuries commercial banks can buy.

传统上，沃什一直想缩减资产负债表。

You have like, traditionally, Warsh wanted to decrease the balance sheet.

这些方面都挺让人好奇的。

There's all those aspects where it's like, I'm curious.

你怎么平衡你刚才说的那些实际交易，和另一套完全不同的东西呢？

How do you balance what you just talked about in terms of just this whole complex of real deals with, like, that whole other thing?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得，现在这整套玩法就是这么回事。

So I I I would say, like, that is kind of let's call it the game right now.

对吧？

Right?

如果你去问宏观领域里的大多数人，他们都会说，这才是关键所在。

And like, that is I kind of think if you ask like pretty much anybody in the broader macro space, like that is the call to get, so to speak.

这确实是个很难把握的点，但我觉得，你是在分析他用词的方式。

And that's like one of the harder spots, but I do think So that is where you're parsing kind of the language he uses.

接下来我要谈谈他的背景，他过去说过些什么，还有那些特别工作组之类的事情。

And then this is where I come to a little bit of his history, you know, and what he's talked about historically and, you know, these task forces and everything.