介绍：转折点 | 加密货币与传统金融的融合

只要它们只能在围墙花园内交易，你就某种程度上削弱了无许可系统和去中心化网络的威力，虽然不是完全削弱。

As long as they can only be traded behind a walled garden, you sort of undercut, not fully, but you sort of undercut the power of permissionless systems, decentralized networks.

对吧？

Right?

你削弱了智能合约和去中心化金融的可组合性。

You cut sort of undercut the composability of smart contracts and decentralized finance.

当你这么做时，就会显得有点别扭，有点怪异。

And when you do that, you make it a little awkward, a little weird.

在购买信贷或购买现实资产时，会遇到一些问题。

There there's there's some issues when buying a credit or buying a RWA.

你能拿它做什么？

What can you do with it?

什么也做不了，因为你哪儿都交易不了，没人能接收它，因为它仅限于合格投资者，而合格投资者数量并不多。

Well, nothing because you can't trade it anywhere because nobody can receive it because it's restricted to only accredited investors, and there's not a lot of accredited investors.

所以那里确实存在一些问题。

So there's some issues there.

我认为这个问题必须得到解决，但这属于监管问题，涉及到降低那种‘丝绒绳索’的门槛。

I think I think that needs to get solved, but that's a regulatory issue about lowering the the velvet rope, so to speak.

不过在反洗钱和了解你的客户方面，我们应该使用去中心化身份。

On the AML KYC, though, we should have decentralized identities.

如果我们能实现去中心化身份，那将带来巨大的好处。

If we can get decentralized identities, that will be a tremendous benefit.

而且坦白说，我们需要去中心化身份，因为我根本不认为我们能通过正式的、要求反洗钱和了解你的客户的监管体系来接入数十亿用户。

That and and frankly, we need decentralized identities because I just don't think we are going to onboard billions of people through a sort of regulatory apparatus that requires AML KYC formally.

这应该几乎通过去中心化身份以非正式的方式实现。

It should be done almost informally through a decentralized identity.

但一旦实现，我们就能最终获得所需的东西。

But once that happens, we finally get what we need.

我指的是什么？

And what do I mean by that?

让我如此兴奋的是这一点。

And what gets me so excited is this.

我们实际上已经具备了所有基础设施。

We actually have all the infra.

我们拥有所有程序。

We have all the programs.

我们所有的核心技术都已经准备就绪。

We have all of the core technology ready to go.

它们只需要资产、交易量和流动性来进行交易。

They just need assets and volume and liquidity to trade.

对吧？

Right?

因此，保险库产品已经优于基金。

So vault products are already superior to funds.

保险库本质上就是一个可编程的基金。

A vault is effectively just a programmable fund.

我记得小时候，我妈带回家一台全新的洗衣机，它很智能。

It's like I remember when when I was a kid and my mom brought home a, she she brought a a brand new, washing machine, and it was intelligent.

那是一台智能机器。

It was an intelligent machine.

对吧？

Right?

它会跟我们说话。

It would talk to us.

我的意思是，这虽然是个有点傻的比喻，但基金就是些呆板的纸张。

That's what a I mean, it's it's a silly analogy, but funds are dumb pieces of paper.

对吧？

Right?

我以前当律师的时候做过基金相关的工作。

I used to do fund work as a lawyer.

在我成为律师之前，我是一名律师助理。

And when I was before I was a lawyer, I was a paralegal.

我之所以选择成为公司律师而不是诉讼律师，是因为我在Crevasse, Swain and More当律师助理时，公司法部门的负责人对我说过，我永远忘不了，他说：诉讼律师是牧师，而公司律师是法律工程师。

And the reason I became a corporate lawyer instead of a litigator is because the head of corporate law at Crevasse, Swain and More where I was a paralegal, said to me, and I'll never forget this, he said, litigators are are ministers, and the corporate lawyers are legal engineers.

我说，这是我听过的最酷的事情。

And I said, that is the coolest thing I've ever heard.

我不知道那是什么意思，但这是我听过的最酷的事情。

I don't know what that means, but that is the coolest thing I've ever heard.

结果发现，根本没有任何工程可言。

Turns out, no engineering at all.

那纯粹只是搬纸张而已。

It was just pure pushing of paper.

所以当你看到所有这些复杂的法律结构时，比如基金管理员、基金载体，这些都只是合同。

So when you see all these complex complex legal structures, a fund administrator, the fund wrapper, all these these are just contracts.

它们在现实中并不存在，除非受托人、基金管理员或律师实际阅读文件并执行规则，否则什么都不会发生。

They don't actually exist in the world, and they're not nothing happens unless a trustee or a fund administrator or a lawyer actually reads the documents and enforces the rules.

这太过时了。

That is archaic.

我们现在有了可以编程执行这些操作的智能合约。

We now have smart contracts that can execute these things programmatically.

所以，你知道，这有很多好处，但我不想听起来太乐观。

And so, you know, there's a lot of benefits, but not to sound too bullish.

KYC 是一个大问题。

KYC is a big problem.

另一个问题，我会交给大卫来谈：我们总是谈论 T+1 是个问题，确实如此。

The other problem, and I'll I'll hand this off to David is t we always talk about how t plus one is a problem, and it is.

但事实上，T+1 也有不少好处，毕竟你支付 T+1 的成本，是为了获得信贷的延伸。

But, like, it is a problem that it has a lot of benefits to, namely being able you know, t plus one is the cost you pay for extending credit.

对吧？

Right?

在整个现有金融体系中扩展杠杆。

Extending leverage throughout the existing financial system.

如果不再有 T+1 结算，而整个现有金融体系完全迁移到去中心化网络，我们就必须想办法为买家提供杠杆和信贷，以确保这一过渡平稳进行，让他们不必在交易时就用抵押品全额付款。

And if there is no t plus one settlement, and the current financial system completely migrates over to decentralized rails, we do have to figure out how to provide leverage, how to provide credit to purchasers so that that transition is seamless and they don't have to buy everything on collateral at the point of sale.

那也很棒。

That's also great.

我认为我要补充的一点是，我同意马特和迈克说的全部内容，但我想补充的是，或许可以把讨论稍微拉回到比特币上，因为比特币已经融入传统金融体系一段时间了。

I think the thing I would add, and I agree with everything Matt and Mike said, but perhaps the thing I would add, and then I'll bring it back maybe the discussion a little bit to Bitcoin, because Bitcoin has been integrated into more traditional rails for a while.

有趣的是，这个过渡期并非没有摩擦。

And I guess the interesting thing is that this transition period doesn't come without friction.

我认为其中一个非常有趣、现在看来显而易见的现象是，当你开始引入一批新投资者，他们持有大量比特币时，比特币的交易方式就会开始发生变化。

I think one that was that has been very interesting and kind of now maybe patently obvious is that when you start to bring this new cohort of investors that now hold a sizable amount of Bitcoin, Bitcoin starts to trade a little differently.

因此，很多这类投资者希望他们的比特币资产能产生收益。

So like a lot of these folks want to get a yield on their Bitcoin holdings.

于是他们开始采用备兑看涨期权策略。

So now they're going to do, they're going to sell covered call strategies.

这种做法已经达到了一定程度，可以说它抑制了比特币的部分上行波动性。

And this has been done to an extent that I think it's fair to say that it has kept some of Bitcoin's upside volatility.

偶尔也会出现一些奇怪的情况，比如CME市场周一开盘跳空，或者某家对冲基金因涉及比特币的 exotic 投注而爆仓。

Now every once in a while you have weird things like CME market open gaps on Mondays or a hedge fund blowing up somewhere because they were doing an exotic bet that involved Bitcoin.

现在，比特币的交易方式已经与我们过去熟悉的模式不同了。

So now Bitcoin is trading in a different way than the one we were used to.

当然，去中心化金融和代币化的情况会有所不同。

And of course, things will be different for DeFi and tokenization.

但每当你引入如此庞大的参与者时，总会出现一些短期摩擦，这些摩擦会随着时间推移发生。

But whenever you bring such a large participant, you can always have these short term frictions that they can happen over time.

我觉得这完全没问题。

And I think that's totally fine.

我觉得这是游戏的一部分，市场会逐步化解这些问题。

I think that's that's part of the game and the market works those those out.

我还想说的是，传统金融领域的人们工作非常努力，但当他们的资产开始24/7交易时，他们根本不知道即将面对什么。

The other thing I like to say is that TradFi people, they work very hard, but they don't know what's coming at them when their assets all start to trade 20 fourseven.

他们都会像我们一样感到压力山大。

They're all going to be as stressed as we are.

这将会很有趣。

And that's that's going to be fun.

但我认为总体而言，我们确实面临这些摩擦。

But I think overall, I mean, we have all these frictions.

确实还有很多问题需要解决。

There's definitely a lot of problems to solve.

我觉得马特和迈克已经涵盖了其中很多问题。

And I think Matt and Mike covered a lot of them.

但我们现在至少已经为大多数问题制定了路线图。

But we are pretty much on our way to at least have a roadmap for most of them.

两三年前可不是这样。

That was not true two or three years ago.

是的。

Right.

如果你谈谈两三年前加密货币的监管环境，那是一个巨大的风险。

If you talk about the regulatory environment in crypto two or three years ago, that was a major risk.

那是一个很大的未知数。

That was a big question mark.

我们不知道会发生什么。

We didn't know what's going happen.

所以我觉得我们已经有了相当清晰的路线图，当然这些路线图需要一些时间来实施。

So I feel like we have pretty clear roadmaps that will obviously take some time to be navigated.

这让我觉得我们正处于一个非常有趣的阶段。

And that makes me think it's a very interesting phase.

那里有很多内容需要梳理。

So a lot to unpack there.

谢谢各位。

Thanks, guys.

我的意思是，最让我惊讶的是，KYC和反洗钱的排名竟然高于监管。

I mean, of all, I'm surprised that KYC AML was ranked higher than regulation.

我原本以为可能会反过来，这让我好奇你们是否都是山姆·奥特曼的World Network去中心化身份解决方案的粉丝。

I thought maybe it'd be maybe a bit the other way around, and then makes me wonder if you all are fans of Sam Altman's World Network decentralized identity solution.

但接着我想起来，大卫，你提到了一个关于比特币因不同类型投资者而形成的全新市场结构的观点。

But then I think, David, you brought up a point about this new market structure that Bitcoin is trading in because of the different types of investors.

你觉得这种情况还会继续变化吗？

Do you see this changing anymore?

我的意思是，纳斯达克和ICE最近取消了ETF产品25,000份期权合约的限制。

I mean, NASDAQ and ICE have recently removed 25,000 options contract limit on the ETF products.

有些人将此与最近的价格下跌联系起来。

And some people are relating that the recent downturns in prices.

你认为它们之间存在关联吗？

Are you seeing there's a correlation between them?

你觉得这个所谓的软性上限还会持续多久？

How long do you see this supposedly like new soft cap going on for?

是的，我觉得看到一些束缚逐渐被解除挺不错的。

Yeah, I think it's cool to see some of the shackles kind of getting cleared up a little bit.

另一个可能被低估的重要变化是，我认为CME将在几个月后开始交易加密货币，包括比特币期货2024年7月。

The other probably big one that I think it's not It might be a little bit understated is that I think the CME will start trading cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin futures 20 fourseven, starting in a few months.

这很有趣。

That's interesting.

我觉得加密货币正变得越来越像传统金融，但在某些方面，传统金融也在变得越来越像加密货币，我们正看到这两个世界以更顺畅的方式融合在一起。

I feel like crypto is becoming a little bit more TradFi, but in a few aspects, TradFi is also becoming a little bit more crypto, and we are seeing these worlds kind of getting mixed and interconnected in a more smooth fashion.

但我认为，是的，不，我认为市场结构将会改变。

But I think, yeah, no, I think the market structure will change.

我认为我们正处在一个不断变化的时期。

I think we're going through a period where it's changing.

它可能会发生更大的变化。

It's probably going to change more.

我认为这实际上可能是一个更长期的趋势。

I think actually, is still probably a much longer trend.

但当你开始看到加密货币被整合到401(k)退休计划等产品中时，你将吸引另一个非常不同且规模庞大的群体。

But the idea when you start to see crypto integrated, for example, into 401ks and things like that, you're going to bring another very different demographic that's going to be very large.

尽管价格趋于平稳，但加密货币领域，尤其是比特币领域，衍生品市场一直在快速增长。

There is the rise of derivatives that has been really growing in the Bitcoin space and the crypto more broadly, even though prices are kind of flat.

如果你观察期权市场的情况，就会发现加密货币中某些细分领域正在显著增长。

If you look into what's going on on, for example, options markets, there are certain sleeves that are growing very significantly in crypto.

所以，是的，不，我认为从这里开始，市场结构仍有很大的变化空间。

So yeah, no, I think there's still room for the market structure to change quite a bit from here.

这肯定会是几年令人兴奋的时光。

Definitely gonna be a few exciting years of that.

真好。

Lovely.

我提到了ETF，马特，你看起来很想说点什么。

I mentioned ETFs and Matt, you look like you were itching to say something.

我只是想回应一下这个问题：解锁更广泛的衍生品市场是比特币下跌的原因吗？

Well, I was just I was just jump on the question of like, has unlocking a broader derivatives market been the reason that Bitcoin is down?

我完全同意大卫的观点，市场结构确实已经改变，交易方式也不同了。

I definitely agree with David that it's changed the market structure and changed how things trade.

但比特币下跌的原因是人们在抛售比特币。

But the reason Bitcoin is down is because people are selling Bitcoin.

他们可能在抛售实物比特币，也可能在持有的比特币仓位上写入备兑看涨期权。

They may be selling physical Bitcoin, or they may be writing covered calls against Bitcoin positions that they hold.

这两者在本质上是一样的。

Those are functionally the same thing.

当你对持有的比特币头寸写入备兑看涨期权时，你实际上是在放弃比特币的上涨收益。

When you write a covered call against a Bitcoin position that you hold, you are selling away the upside of Bitcoin.

这在机制上等同于直接卖出比特币。

It is mechanically the same thing as selling Bitcoin itself.

因此，我认为期权市场的巨大增长确实改变了比特币的交易方式。

So I do think that the enormous growth of the options market has changed sort of the way Bitcoin trades for sure.

但价格下跌50%的原因是，2025年初持有比特币的人一直在卖出比特币并为其头寸写入看涨期权。

But the reason prices are down 50% is because people who held Bitcoin at the start of 2025 have been selling it and writing calls against their position.

这百分之百就是全部的故事。

And that's like, that's the 100% of the story.

我担心的是，我听到有人谈论纸面比特币这类说法。

And I worry I hear like talk of paper Bitcoin and these sorts of things.

不，其实就是人们在卖出。

No, it's like people are selling.

他们可能是通过期权进行卖出。

They may be selling through options.

他们也可能通过期货出售。

They may be selling through futures.

这都是一回事。

It's all the same.

归根结底，是人们在抛售他们的比特币，这就是价格下跌的原因。

It all boils down to people selling away their Bitcoin and that's why the price is down.

所以，这就是我想表达的简单观点。

So that was the simple point I wanted to make.

我认为是这样，也许人们总想把它搞得复杂。

I think that's yeah, maybe not people try to make it complex.

实际上很简单。

It's actually pretty simple.

价格下跌是因为人们在抛售。

Price is down because people are selling.

这正是我的意思。

That's that's what I mean.

是的，这没什么阴谋。

Yeah, there's no conspiracy.

没有什么魔法。

There's no like magic.

就是人们在抛售。

It's people are selling.

基差被压缩，因为散户没有采取杠杆多头头寸。

Basis is compressed because retail traders aren't taking on leveraged upside position.

这导致了实物抛售，因为基差是通过对冲或ETF抛售来抵消的。

And that translates into sale of physical because the way Basis is hedged out or sales of ETFs.

自10月10日以来，我们看到比特币ETF出现了1000万美元的净流出。

The outflows we've seen from ETFs since October 10, we've seen $10,000,000 of outflows in Bitcoin ETFs.

其中绝大多数来自此前进行基差交易、如今已不再进行该交易的对冲基金。

The vast majority of that is from hedge funds that were running the basis trade and are no longer running the basis trade.

但这并不是因为对冲基金不想保持敞口。

But it's not because the hedge funds don't want exposure.

这是因为交易的另一方——即创造基差的零售投机者——不再希望持有敞口。

It's because the other side of the trade, which was retail speculation that created the basis, doesn't want exposure.

这就是被市场挤出的部分。

That's what's been squeezed out of the market.

我认为重要的是让人们意识到，所有这些最终都归结为对比特币的需求。

And I think it's just important for people to realize that they're all they all boil down to demand for Bitcoin.

这才是最终的驱动因素。

That's like the ultimate driver.

所以，我们经历了比特币历史上最显著的净流出周。

So, I mean, we've had historic weeks of BTC outflow.

我认为目前连续五周都是净流出，过去十一次中可能有九次都是负值。

I think it's five net negative in a row right now, and probably maybe nine out of the past 11 have been negative.

正如你提到的，基差交易者的收益率正在收窄。

And then as you mentioned, the basis traders, those yields are compressing.

这几乎看起来像是一个自我强化的循环。

It almost seems like it's a reflexive cycle.

你对此有什么看法吗？

Do you have any thoughts on that?

你认为有什么能阻止它吗？

Do you see anything stopping it?

哦，当然有。

Oh, yeah, for sure.

对。

Yeah.

你那里有三类比特币ETF交易者。

You have there's sort of three groups of Bitcoin ETF traders.

他们是进行基差交易的对冲基金。

They're hedge funds running the basis trade.

他们是关注型投资者。

They're attention investors.

还有长期配置者，比如财务顾问、捐赠基金、主权财富基金、家族办公室等，他们购买比特币是着眼于未来十年。

And then they're long term allocators, financial advisors, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, family offices, etcetera, that are buying Bitcoin for the next ten years.

我们出现资金外流的原因是前两类投资者正在从市场撤资。

And the reason we've had outflows is those first two have been pulling money out of the market.

如前所述，基差已经收窄。

As mentioned, basis collapsed.

因此，那些通过购买ETF对冲基差的对冲基金，因为ETF受到监管且他们对此感到安心，正在赎回并平仓这笔交易。

So the hedge funds who hedge their basis by buying the ETF because it's regulated and they feel comfortable with it, have been redeeming as they unwind that trade.

关注型投资者已完全转向贵金属或人工智能，不再对加密货币感兴趣。

The attention investor has migrated entirely to precious metals or to AI, and they're no longer interested in crypto.

第三类是长期配置者，包括机构、家族办公室和财务顾问，他们仍在买入并持有。

The third component, which is the long term allocator, the institutions, the family offices, the financial advisors, they're still buying and holding.

这就是为什么我们看到大约1000亿美元中有100亿美元流出市场，因为长期配置者仍在持续买入并持有。

That's why we've seen 10,000,000,000 out of like $100,000,000,000 come out of the market, because the long term allocators are still buying and holding.

当我去拜访他们时，上周我刚在迈阿密出差，见了40位财务顾问。

When I go visit them, I was on the road last week in Miami, I met with 40 advisors.

他们都在进行配置，并且会继续配置。

They were all allocating, and they will continue to allocate.

所以，你知道，如果你能记住这三类群体——对冲基金、关注型投资者和长期配置者，他们会以不同的节奏行动。

So, you know, I really think if you keep in mind these three groups, hedge funds, attention, and long term allocators, they move at different paces.

而这可能就是我长期持乐观态度的原因，因为最后一类仍在积极买入。

And that's probably the reason I'm optimistic long term is that last one is still aggressively buying.

他们实际上是在逢低买入。

They're actually buying the dip.

他们正在增加配置。

They're allocating more.

如果你仔细分析资金流向，并思考哪些类别在使用哪些ETF，你就能从专注于长期配置者的人群中发现一些额外的收益机会。

You can see that if you really analyze the flows and think about which category is using which ETF, you can tease out some incremental wins on people who are focused on that long term allocator space.

但我认为这实际上正是市场上正在发生的事情。

But I think that's actually what's happening in the market.

我认为一个有助于理解这一点的指标，就是观察整体流动性趋势。

Think one indicator that helps contextualize that is just looking at overall liquidity trends.

我觉得今年我们看到了一些相当显著的现象。

I think this year we saw some pretty remarkable things.

比如，以比特币现货交易量为例。

So like, take for example, Bitcoin spot volumes.

比特币显然是一个流动性很强的资产，但其现货交易量实际上一直很低。

Bitcoin is obviously a very liquid asset, but its spot volumes have actually been very low.

所有这些趋势、这些重要的因素都意义重大，并且会影响价格。

And all this trend, all these things that matter saying, they're very meaningful and they impact the price.

但我们讨论的是，在流动性极低的情况下出现的这些下跌行情。

But we're talking about these down moves coming on very low liquidity.

就在昨天，比特币的交易额达到了60亿到70亿美元，这本该是比特币的周末水平，而不是一个普通的工作日。

Just yesterday, Bitcoin traded 6 to $7,000,000,000 That should be a weekend for for Bitcoin, not a regular weekday.

而这还不到比特币在十月之前通常交易量的三分之一。

And this is like a third of what Bitcoin would normally trade before the October.

另一方面，当我们经历一些主要的抛售时，比如二月初的2月5日崩盘，比特币的现货交易量异常高涨。

On the other hand, when we had some of those major sell offs, like for example, the early February, the February 5 crash, Bitcoin spot volumes were exceptionally high.

通常比特币每天交易额在60亿到80亿美元之间，但在那些日子里，比特币的日交易额达到了180亿到200亿美元。

We're talking about while Bitcoin usually has been trading $6 to $8,000,000,000 a day, during those days, Bitcoin was trading $18 to $20,000,000,000 a day.

因此，这让我感觉到在某些价格水平上存在较强的支撑。

So what this kind of gives me is a sense that there is some strong support around certain price levels.

我认为有些人将某些价格水平视为非常有吸引力的入场点。

And I think certain folks are seeing certain price levels as very interesting entry points.

大概6万美元这个水平是一个关键点。

Probably the 60 ks level is a big one.

每当比特币触及6万美元这个水平时，我们交易台上来自这些机构、长期、基本面驱动型投资者的交易活动量实际上会突然激增。

Whenever Bitcoin gets to that 60 ks level, even the amount of trade activity that we see at our desk from these institutional, longer term, fundamentally driven investors actually starts to become a little bit off the charts.

你也可以在整体交易量中看到这一点。

You can also see that in overall trading volumes.

所以我觉得，马特提到的这些基差交易者和很多关注型投资者，基本上已经退出了市场。

So feel like a lot of these basis trading, a lot of these attention investors that Matt mentioned, I think these guys are broadly out of the market.

感觉仓位普遍很轻。

It does feel like positioning is light.

当然，我们仍可能在某些地方积累了一些杠杆，尤其是在衍生品市场。

Of course, we can always have a few pockets of leverage, accumulated leverage, especially in the perks market.

但总体来看，仓位似乎较轻。

But overall, it does seem like positioning is light.

而且关键价格水平似乎有较强支撑。

And it also seems that there is relatively strong support at key price levels.

我的意思是，我不想做任何价格预测之类的事情。

That, I mean, I don't want to do a price call or anything like that.

我们显然可能朝任何一个方向走，但现在的走势看起来相当有趣。

We can obviously go one way or another, but it does feel like the setup now is rather interesting.

大卫保证我们不会跌破6万。

David guarantees we're not going below 60.

我就是这么听说的。

That's what I heard.

完全不是。

Not at all.

一点都不是。

At all.

我同意这一点，大卫。

I agree with that, David.

我还想补充一点，上涨空间可能也存在上限。

I would also add there's probably caps on the upside.

反之亦然，下跌空间可能也有限。

The reverse of that is probably also true.

我认为从市场行为来看，要突破80美元会很困难。

I think it'd be behaviorally hard to blow through 80.

而且，我认为在100这个价位，根据我的直觉，仍然存在大量愿意抛售的供应，至少在当前市场环境下是如此。

And then again at a 100, I think those are still levels with my gut feel is significant supply willing to sell, at least in this market environment.

我们讨论过这些投资者，或者说套利交易的收益率正在被压缩，但他们并不只是想持有比特币。

We talked about how these investors or the yield is being compressed on the basis trade, but they don't just want to hold Bitcoin.

这就是他们进行这类交易的原因。

That's why they do these kinds of trades.

ETF交易量占整个比特币交易量的百分比，随着时间的推移还在持续增长。

The volume that ETFs make up as a percentage of Bitcoin volume as a whole continues to grow over time.

这种对收益的需求，我们正看到其他提供收益的ETF，比如质押型的Solana ETF，未来可能还有以太坊ETF。

And this demand for yield, we're seeing other ETFs with yield, staked ETFs like Solana, maybe ETH coming in the future.

但即使是比特币，我们也看到通过做空期货、做多现货、即所谓的正向价差交易，来实现比特币收益的ETF。

But then even with Bitcoin, we're seeing ETFs in the form of Bitcoin yield through that same, you know, going short futures, long spots, you know, the contango trade.

如果这类ETF变得更加流行，是否会进一步改变这种市场动态，并可能形成这种软性上限？

If that ETF starts to become more popular, will that further change this market dynamic and possibly also put this kind of soft cap?

我的意思是，是的。

I mean, yes.

我想说，马克，你所描述的大部分情况并没有出现在公开报告的数据中，因为这些交易实际上发生在个人SMA和一对一的客户关系中。

I would say, Marc, most of that you're not seeing in public reported data because it's actually taking place in individual SMAs, individual one to one client relationships.

所以市场上已经存在大量这类活动。

So there's already a lot of that activity in the market.

我认为，这正是过去一年市场难以上涨的主要原因之一——有比链上数据显示的多得多的比特币，其上涨空间已经被卖出。

I think it's been one of the primary reasons it's been so hard to rally is there's much more Bitcoin than you can see onchain has sold away its upside over the last year.

如果这种趋势继续延伸到公开产品，而像Neos等公司正在积累真实资金流，那么也会产生相同的效果。

If that continues into public products and there are public products, folks like Neos and others that are accumulating real flows, it has that same effect.

对吧？

Right?

这并不是净需求。

Again, that's not net demand.

这是在卖出上涨空间。

That's selling away the upside.

所以我认为你会看到的。

So I think you will see it.

我认为你已经在看到了。

I think you're already seeing it.

你只是在公开基金里看不到，因为SMAs不被报告，对吧？

You just don't see it in public funds because SMAs aren't reported, right?

它们是私下的点对点关系。

They're private one on one relationships.

但这是在过去一年里迅速增长的大生意。

But that's big business that's really grown over the last year.

说句题外话，这就是为什么那些对比特币IPO理论持怀疑态度的人会查看链上数据，指出并没有多少比特币被卖出，但实际被通过期权叠加策略售出的量可能是这个数字的两倍。

For what it's worth, this is why you saw people who were skeptical of like the Bitcoin IPO theory, and they pointed onchain and said not that much Bitcoin has been sold, but probably two x what was sold was sold away in option overlay strategies.

而市场根本没有注意到这一点，因为底层的比特币根本不需要移动。

And the market just didn't see that because underlying Bitcoin doesn't have to move.

它实际上仍留在托管方，而期权则是基于它来发行的。

It actually stays at the custodian, and then the options are written against it.

所以这是市场中一个被低估的领域。

And so that's like a underreported corner of the market.

这是真实存在的。

That's very real.

这真是颇具讽刺意味，我们正在让这个本应透明的系统，在融入体系的过程中变得更加不透明。

It's, it's pretty ironic that we're making this transparent system more opaque as it gets more integrated into into the system.

所以，我认为应对这一问题的对策，是不是让那些寻求收益的投资者寻找其他来源呢？

So I guess what a counter measure to that be the same investors looking for a source of yield?

如果我们能更多地尝试受监管的产品，比如金库、PTC借贷，或者这些非中性对冲、非风险中性的替代性收益生成方式，或许会更好。

If we had, for instance, you know, if they were to experiment more with regulated products, maybe vaults, maybe PTC lending, you know, maybe these alternative options to generate the yield, maybe not at a, delta neutral way or risk neutral way.

但你觉得，这能抵消基差交易吗？

But you know, would this kind of counteract the basis trade, do you think?

我觉得这一切都说得通，马克。

I think this all makes sense, Marc.

不过，我们可能还需要市场更成熟一些。

We do probably need though, a little bit of market maturity here.

我觉得比特币信贷市场目前还是单边的。

I feel like BTC credit markets, they're still kind of still one way.

那种单边市场非常明显。

So very one way markets in that.

每个人都持有比特币。

Everybody has Bitcoin.

每个人都想借出自己的比特币。

Everybody wants to lend their Bitcoin.

但很少有人愿意以比特币作为负债。

Not a lot of people wants to have their liability in Bitcoin.

所以我认为我们需要更多的市场成熟度。

So I think we need a little bit more market maturity here.

但我认为方向是对的。

But I think the direction is right.

我非常兴奋的一点是，比特币信贷市场乃至整个链上信贷市场正在增加复杂性和更高层次的 sophistication。

I think one of the things I'm very excited about is this adding complexity and further sophistication of Bitcoin credit markets, perhaps overall onchain credit markets.

这并不一定非得是关于比特币的讨论。

This doesn't have to be a Bitcoin specific discussion.

所以我认为我们会越来越多地看到这种情况。

So I think this is something that we'll probably see more and more.

但人们之所以采用备兑看涨期权策略，是因为通过出借比特币所能获得的利率相对较低。

But the reason people do these covered call strategies is because the rates that they would get by lending their Bitcoin are relatively low.

所以，如果你去找主经纪商或借贷柜台，说‘我有大量比特币想出借以获得收益’，你得到的利率并不会很高。

So if you go to a prime broker, if you go to a lending desk and you say, Hey, I have all this amount of Bitcoin that I want to lend and get a yield, the number you're going to get is the rate you're going to get is not super high.

而通过执行看涨期权覆盖策略，你可能获得三到四倍，甚至五倍的收益率，具体取决于你的激进程度。

And you can get probably three to four, maybe five times, depending on how aggressive you are, of that rate doing call overlay strategies.

它们不是一回事，对吧？

They're not the same thing, right?

它们的风险特征非常不同。

They have very different risk profiles.

卖出看涨期权的叠加策略是一种更主动的策略。

Call selling overlaid is a much more active strategy.

这需要你持续监控，并随着时间推移逐步实现收益。

It's something that you have to monitor and kind of harvest that yield over time.

但历史上，它比单纯借贷比特币更具吸引力。

But historically, it has been more attractive than just simply lending BTC.

但我认为我们会达到那一步的。

But I think we'll get there.

我认为市场肯定会不断发展。

I think the market will definitely evolve.

我觉得这是对的。

Think that's right.

我认为，会减少备兑看涨策略需求的主要因素，是度过四年周期中的历史性下跌年份。

I think the primary thing that will shrink demand for the covered call overlay strategies is getting past the historic down year of the four year cycle.

我认为，随着我们进入年底，许多人会重新配置资金，他们开始关注你提到的‘反身性’这个词。

I think a lot of those people will look to reallocate as we move into the end of the year and they start looking for you mentioned the word reflexive.

我讨厌这么说太简单了，但人们投机我们会进入下一个牛市的反身性行为，我认为这些会逐渐收缩。

I hate that it's this simple, but the reflexive nature of people speculating that we'll be in another bull cycle, I think you'll see those compress.

我同意借贷市场很有趣，但收益率真的非常低。

And I agree that the lending market is interesting, but the yields are really, really low.

我认为这样说是公平的。

I think it's fair

去说。

to say.

你提到了这一点。

You you brought that up.

出于好奇，我想谈谈补贴底线。

And just for my curiosity, I want to open the subsidy floor.

你们认为四年周期已经终结了吗？

Do you all believe the four year cycle is dead?

你们仍然相信四年周期吗？

Do you all still believe in the four year cycle?

还是说，你们之所以相信四年周期，是因为你们相信其他人相信它？

Or do you all still believe in the four year cycle because you believe other people believe in the four year cycle?

我认为四年周期依然存在且有效，但每个周期的波动都变得不那么剧烈了。

I think the four year cycle is alive and well, but every cycle it gets less steep.

它的幅度更平缓了。

It is more shallow.

而这一次的熊市，我认为也不会有什么不同。

And the bear, this time around, I think will be no different.

我实在想不明白，像我们讨论的基差被清空这样的主要推动因素到底是什么。

I frankly am scratching my head about what the main catalyst is for like, for example, we're talking about the basis getting flushed out.

好吧。

Like, okay.

而且，方向性也仍然不太明确。

Well, directional is still out a little bit as well.

对吧？

Right?

而且除此之外，我觉得宏观状况在我看来和六个月前并没有太大不同。

And on top of that, I see macro conditions not they don't seem that much different than they were six months ago to me.

对吧？

Right?

我对以下这一点感到困惑。

And I'm scratching my head about the following.

我该怎么解释呢？

How do I explain?

我的意思是，这正是我过去一个月每天都要和机构交易对手讨论的内容。

I mean, this is what I have to talk about with institutional counterparties every day for last month.

比特币作为价值储存的论点成立吗？

Is the Bitcoin thesis on a as a store of value?

比特币作为价值储存的论点真的准确吗？

Is the Bitcoin thesis is that accurate?

它实际上是一种价值储存手段吗？

Is it in fact a store of value?

因为黄金在上涨，而比特币却横盘或下跌，我们总是得解释这一点。

Because gold going up, Bitcoin going sideways or down, we always have to explain that.

虽然我很想听听马特和大卫对此的看法，但就我个人而言，比特币目前的交易方式至少没有体现出作为价值储存和全球不稳定时期避风港的特征，这让我感到有些担忧。

And while I mean, I would love to hear what Matt and David think on this, but from my perspective, it is a little concerning to me that Bitcoin right now is at least not trading in a way that would ref reflect a store of value and and a safe harbor for for global instability?

我想稍微持不同意见。

I think I'll take a little bit the other side here.

但也不是完全不同意，只是稍微有点不同。

But not not not entirely, but but a little bit.

我通常开玩笑说，由于通货膨胀，四年周期变成了三年半周期，因为它并没有完全对应我们所设定的日历年。

I usually joke that due to inflation, the four year cycle became a three and a half year cycle, because it's actually not matching exactly the calendar years that we have mapped.

但说实话，我不相信四年周期会持续下去。

But no, my real belief is that I'm not a believer in the four year cycle sustaining.

我认为即使是上一个四年周期，我们也算是运气不错，因为那一年发生了大规模的宏观经济刺激。

I do think that even the last four year cycle, I think we kind of lucked out because you had a major macroeconomic stimulus that happened at that year.

我认为这一因素对比特币价格的推动作用，远比减半事件更重要。

I think that was a factor in driving the Bitcoin price orders of magnitude more important than the halving.

我过去曾做过一些分析，将减半事件与比特币每日交易量的百分比进行比较，而不是看比特币的存量，而是看交易量。

I've done some analysis in the past of the halving as a percentage of how much Bitcoin trades per day, not necessarily the amount of Bitcoin standing, but how much Bitcoin trades.

从资金流动的角度来看，这种对比更凸显了减半事件正变得越来越无关紧要。

And that comparison is even more dramatic at how fast the halving is becoming irrelevant from a flow standpoint.

当然，心理层面和市场心理也起着一定作用。

Of course, there's psychological aspects and market psychology has a role.

所以也许确实存在一些这方面的影响。

So maybe there is some of that.

但我认为这在一定程度上只是巧合。

But I think it's kind of a little bit of a coincidence.

而且我认为所有这些宏观趋势，正如马特之前提到的，确实存在一些市场结构问题，肯定有一些人在抛售，但也存在一些重大的宏观转变，对吧？

And I think all these kind of macro trends, I think a lot of to Matt's earlier point, there's definitely, I think, some market structure topics, there's definitely some folks selling, but there's also some big macro shifts, right?

在过去的六到十二个月里，宏观经济形势长期处于不确定状态。

Over the past six to twelve months, Macro has been uncertain for a long time.

也许变化不大，但我感觉存在很多不确定性，有很多变动的因素，对吧？

Maybe it has not changed much, but I feel like there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of moving parts, right?

有时我们担心的是，怎么说呢，美联储的独立性。

Sometimes we're concerned about the, I don't know, Fed independence.

有时我们担心的是地缘政治问题。

Sometimes we're concerned about a geopolitical issue.

有时我们担心财政政策。

Sometimes we're concerned about fiscal policy.

有时我们担心通胀和增长。

Sometimes we're concerned about inflation and growth.

有太多变动的因素，存在很多不确定性，它们轮流吸引着市场的注意力。

There's just too many moving parts where there's a lot of uncertainty and they're kind of taking their turns in grabbing the market attention.

所以我也认为，过去六个月宏观环境对比特币来说相对不利。

So I also think that the macro environment turned out to be relatively unfavorable for Bitcoin over the past six months.

如果不是这样，我们可能会看到完全不同的交易动态。

If that was not the case, maybe we would be seeing very different trading dynamics.

所以，我的意思是，我认为市场心理起着作用，很多人相信四年周期，这确实是一个现象。

So, I mean, what I want to say is I think market psychology plays a role and a lot of people believe in the four year cycle and that's a thing.

但我认为随着时间推移，我并不太相信四年周期。

But I think that over time, I'm not a huge believer in the four year cycle.

最后，我觉得我讲得太久了。

And just to finish, I feel like I'm talking for too long.

我认为比特币作为数字黄金的投资逻辑依然成立，但有时我们必须稍微耐心一点，因为比特币还是一种新兴的数字黄金。

I think Bitcoin's investment thesis as digital gold is still in place, but just sometimes we have to be a little patient because Bitcoin is an emerging digital gold.

它显然还没有达到那个阶段。

It's definitely not there.

我觉得这其实让我感到兴奋，因为这才是潜在的上行空间所在。

And what I would say is I'm actually makes me kind of exciting because that's where the upside is.

如果比特币的表现完全符合其成熟阶段应有的样子，那么上行空间就不会存在。

If Bitcoin behaved exactly as it should in its more mature phase, the upside wouldn't be there.

我记得五年前，当比特币还很早期时，很多人说：‘我不打算入场，因为我担心监管问题。’

I remember like five years ago when it was a bitwise, a lot of folks were like, oh, I don't want to get into this because I have regulatory bidders.

我说，好吧。

I said, fine.

当时比特币的价格是5060美元，我说：‘好吧，如果你想要等监管问题解决后再入场，那你可能得在五万到六万美元的价格买入比特币，而那时这听起来简直荒谬至极。’

And at the time, Bitcoin was traded at $5.06 ks and say, fine, if you want to wait for the regulatory concerns to be cleared out, you're probably going to buy Bitcoin at 50 to $60,000 each, which at that time sounded absolutely outrageous.

而我们现在就处在这个位置。

And that's where we are.

我认为，如果你非要等到比特币完全成熟、完全符合我们所有人对它的想象后再入场，那没问题，但你可能得花四十万或五十万美元，甚至更多才能买到一枚比特币。

And I think if you want to wait for Bitcoin to behave exactly as this asset that we all imagine it to be at its full maturity, fine, but you're probably going to pay 400 or 500 ks, maybe more per BTC.

所以，比特币没有像我们预期的那样规律地波动，我觉得这恰恰说明这种不对称的上行空间依然存在，值得兴奋。

So the reason why it's not zigging and zagging exactly as we think it should, I feel like it's one reason to be excited about this asymmetric upside still being in place.

我们还有很大的空间，是的。

We've got a lot of ground there, but yeah.

不，非常精彩的评论。

No, great commentary.

我再补充两点，因为实在忍不住想说，马克。

I'll add two thoughts because I can't resist Marc.

我知道你想让我们继续，但这真是我最感兴趣的话题。

I know you want to keep us going, but this is like my favorite thing.

我觉得每个人都希望比特币随黄金上涨，而且还要涨得更多，比如涨十倍，但这显然荒谬，因为如果真这样，大家只会持有比特币，黄金就永远不会再涨了。

I feel like everyone wants Bitcoin to go up whenever gold goes up, except for go up 10X more, which is of course insane because if that happened, you would only own Bitcoin and then gold would never go up.

所以这个逻辑其实站不住脚。

So the logic actually breaks in that argument.

我认为回答你问题的方式是：如果黄金不是在5000美元，而是处于盘整状态，我们还会质疑比特币作为价值储存手段吗？

I think that the way I would answer your question is if gold weren't at $5,000 if gold were like flattish, would we be raising any questions about Bitcoin as a store of value?

当然不会。

Definitely not.

所有长期趋势看起来都超棒，对吧？

All the long term trends look awesome, right?

它现在是65000美元，正遵循四年周期。

It's at $65,000 It's following the four year cycle.

主权财富基金正在购买它。

Sovereign wealth funds are buying it.

捐赠基金正在购买它。

Endowments are buying it.

所有基本面特征都是成立的。

All the fundamental characteristics are true.

那么你就可以单独思考一个问题：为什么黄金涨得这么多？

So then you isolate the question of why is gold up so much?

如果你看一下数据，黄金大幅上涨的原因非常清楚。

And the reason gold ups is so much is very obvious if you look at the data.

这完全是央行的购买行为，对吧？

It's all central bank buying, right?

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，央行购买量出现了上升。

Central bank buying uptick after Russia invaded Ukraine.

这一趋势一直持续，并在近年来进一步加速。

It's maintained there and accelerated in recent years.

实际上，在美国以外并没有基于零售端的购买行为。

There is no retail based buying out actually outside, at least in The US.

黄金ETF的资金流入非常疲软。

Gold ETF flows are very weak.

有一些对未来投机的预期，但主要是央行在购买。

There's some speculative future, but it's mostly central bank buying.

所以你所看到的实际上是各国央行在购买黄金。

So actually what you're seeing is central banks are buying gold.

因此价格就上涨了。

So the price went up.

央行在购买比特币吗？

Are central banks buying Bitcoin?

没有。

No.

对。

Right.

所以比特币正在经历它自己的周期，遵循四年周期的规律。

And so Bitcoin is doing Bitcoin things, which is following the four year cycle.

但其二十年来的基本逻辑依然非常稳固。

But the fundamental like twenty year thesis is still incredibly intact.

世界正在变得更加数字化。

The world is more digital.

比特币通过结算实现了自我托管。

Bitcoin allows self custody through settlement.

它在统计上优于黄金。

It has statistical advantages over gold.

它只是会没事的。

It'll just be fine.

你只需要保持独立。

You just have to isolate.

这种叙事上的矛盾之所以出现，是因为黄金价格上涨，而比特币却在遵循其正常的四年周期，目前处于下行阶段。

The reason there's this narrative violation is gold is up and Bitcoin is doing a following its normal four year pattern, which is down.

但你得问，为什么黄金会上涨？

But you have to ask why is gold up?

有一个非常具体的原因，今天这个原因不适用于比特币。

And there's a really specific reason that just today doesn't apply to Bitcoin.

所以我觉得会没事的。

So I think it'll be fine.

我觉得这是个绝佳的机会。

I think it's an incredible opportunity.

基本面远远领先于当前的价格。

The fundamentals are way ahead of where the price is right now.

所以我觉得会没事的。

So I think it'll be I think it'll be fine.

在六万美元以上，很难对比特币抱怨什么。

It's hard to complain about Bitcoin, you know, above 60,000.

对。

Right.

显然，很多人现在都处于亏损状态。

Obviously, lot of people are underwater.

他们很可能是在远高于这个价格时买入的。

They probably bought much higher than that.

但我还记得那些只能梦想比特币能涨到6万美元的日子。

But I remember the days when you could only dream it was going to be 60,000.

我的意思是，我们都经历过。

I mean, we all do.

对吧？

Right?

所以从这个角度看，它确实在保持价值。

So it is it is holding its value in that sense.

这是个非常好的观点，马特。

And that's a very good point, Matt.

我确实没看过那组数据，但那实际上能解释很多问题。

I I I haven't looked at that data, but that's actually that would explain a lot.

对吧？

Right?

如果各国中央政府都在购买黄金，那就能解释两者之间的全部或大部分差异。

If you've got central governments that are that are buying gold, then that that explains the entire or explains largely the the divergence between the two.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我现在对整个领域非常看涨。

I mean, I'm really I'm really quite bullish right now on the entire landscape.

不管价格是六万五、八万五还是一百万，关键是我们将看到，我日常关注的是帮助客户和合作伙伴减少对价格波动的过度关注，转而关注底层技术及其能做什么，以及如何将这些技术融入他们现有的业务中，从而彻底消除业务中一些最昂贵和官僚的环节。

And, you know, whether it's 65 or 85 or a 100, like the fact of the matter is, is that we are going to see what I what I focus on in my day to day is sort of moving my clients, moving our our our partners away from overly focusing on price action and focusing instead on the underlying technology and what the underlying technology can do and how they can fit the underlying technology into their existing businesses right now to completely obviate some of the most costly and bureaucratic parts of their businesses.

最近，我们一直在与结构性金融领域进行大量交流。

Lately, we've been talking a lot with structured finance.

结构性金融领域非常容易被颠覆。

Structured finance is ripe for disruption.

结构性金融几乎完全、甚至可以说是明显地应该在区块链上进行交易。

It is almost perfectly, almost like laughably obvious that structured finance should trade on blockchains.

对吧？

Right?

这是市场中一个隐蔽而 opaque 的角落。

It's this corner, opaque corner of the market.

结构化起来很困难，而大部分工作都是在支付律师费用，让他们弄清楚如何结构化这些产品。

It's hard to structure, and the majority of it is paying lawyers to figure out how to structure these things.

而律师们有个不为人知的秘密：他们只是从架子上拿出了之前用过五十次、一百次、五百次的法律协议，改改名字和一些数字，就完事了。

And the lawyers, the dirty little secret is they take the legal agreements off the shelf that they've used 50 times before, a 100 times, 500 times, change the names, change some of the numbers, and there we go.

但这拖慢了整个流程。

But it slows the process down.

而我们可以用链上技术自动化所有这些步骤。

And we can automate all that with onchain.

所以我对此非常兴奋。

So I'm really excited about it.

而比特币将作为这些结构化金融产品的抵押品。

And Bitcoin will serve as collateral in those structured financial products.

所以

So

对

Yeah.

百分之百

A 100%.

我非常喜欢

I love it.

是的

Yeah.

我总觉得，这可能是价格最低的时候了

I I tend to say this is probably the lowest the price.

价格最高、最多人不满的时候

The highest the price has been with the most number of people upset.

你知道吗

You know?

你看，如果稍微抽离一点来看，现在这种情况真的很奇怪。

Like, this is it's such a weird dynamic going on now if you just zoom out a little bit.

但我认为，迈克尔，你在结构性金融方面的观点非常好。

But I I think Michael, that's a that's a great point on structured finance.

我觉得这正是我们下周讨论的绝佳话题，可惜我们现在时间到了。

I think I think that's perfect for probably the topic that we'll discuss about next week because unfortunately, we're out of time now.

所以，说实话，这真的非常棒。

So, I mean, this has been great.

显然，我们还可以再聊一个小时。

Obviously, we could continue talking for another hour.

感谢大家的参与。

Thank you all for joining me.

如果有人想联系你们，他们可以在哪里找到你们？

If anybody wants to reach out to you, where can they find y'all?

我们先从大卫开始吧。

Let's start with David.

是的

Yeah.

我在Twitter上，账号是d Lawant，d l a w a n t。

I'm on Twitter, d Lawant, d l a w a n t.

你可以在那里找到我，也可以访问安克罗奇的网站：anchorage.com。

You can find me there, or you can also visit Anchorage's website at anchorage.com.

那里有很多内容，还有我们的Twitter账号@Anchorage。

There's a lot of stuff there and and and our Twitter account too at Anchorage.

对

Yeah.

我在X上，matthogan。

Same on x, matthogan.

拼写里有u，h o u g a n。

It's got the u in it, h o u g a n.

不。

No.

我不明白它为什么在那里。

I don't know why it's there.

你也可以在Bitwise Investments上找到我。

You can also find me on Bitwise Investments.

我写一份每周备忘录，叫做CIO备忘录。

I write a weekly memo called the CIO memo.

你可以搜索并订阅。

You can look it up and subscribe.

你可以在Twitter上找到我。

You can find me on Twitter.

Marc Cryptonia是我的加密货币昵称，拼写是m a r c r y p t o n I o。

Marc Cryptonia is my degen crypto handle, m a r c r y p t o n I o.

如果你知道怎么找，你也可以在Chain上找到我。

You can also find me on chain if you you know how to look.

所以，

So,

太棒了。

Love it.

你也可以在 Twitter 上找到我，用户名是 Marc Arjoon，也就是 X 和 LinkedIn。

And you can find me at Marc Arjoon on Twitter and I mean X and LinkedIn.

所以，谢谢大家。

So, thanks guys.

谢谢各位，别忘了下周继续收看。

Thanks everyone and be sure to tune in next week.