伊朗能源冲击即将冲击市场吗？| 每周回顾

每个人都一直在玩传土豆，从一个轮动转向另一个轮动，因为市场波动性非常高，相关性却很低。

Everybody's been playing hot potato from rotation to rotation thinking, you know, because dispersion has been very high and correlation low.

但我认为，真正的长期买入机会出现在市场出现某种一致性表现之后，因为仍有一些领域尚未被充分清理。

But where you where I think that the lasting buying opportunities come is after you see some more correlation to one type experiences in the market because there's still pockets that have not been properly flushed.

这首先从加密货币开始，然后转向软件行业，我们还看到了一些金属领域的变化。

It started with crypto, then it went to software, and we've seen some with metals.

但我认为还有很多供应需要消化，这需要一些时间。

But I just think there's a lot of supply to still be worked through, and it's going to take some time.

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This episode is brought to you by Coinbase.

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在交易之前，你应该了解究竟是谁在推动市场走势。

Before you place a trade, you should know who is actually moving the market.

这就是Arkham的用武之地。

That's where Arkham comes in.

Arkham是一个加密情报平台和交易所，让你能够查看真实的链上数据，了解哪些钱包在买入、卖出和转移资金，并直接基于这些信息进行交易。

Arkham is a crypto intelligence platform and exchange that lets you see real on chain data, which wallets are buying, selling, and moving funds, and then trade directly on that information.

Arkham的设计目标是让区块链变得易于理解，而不是呈现原始的交易数据。

Arkham was built to make blockchains human readable instead of raw transaction data.

你可以获得清晰的档案、可视化工具和自定义仪表板，揭示表象之下真正发生的事情。

You get clear profiles, visualizers, and custom dashboards that show what's really happening beneath the surface.

追踪钱包和资金流动正变得与技术分析或基本面分析同等重要。

Tracking wallets and fund flows is becoming just as important as technical or fundamental analysis.

链上情报也是交易者防范黑客攻击、跑路和诈骗的最有力工具之一。

On chain intelligence is also one of the best tools traders have to protect themselves against hacks, rugs, and scams.

通过Arkham交易所，你可以在一个平台上从洞察直接执行交易，这是全球首个由加密情报驱动的交易所。

With Arkham Exchange, you can go from insight to execution in one place, the world's first exchange powered by crypto intelligence.

访问Arkham，前往arkham.com，利用真实的链上洞察开始交易。

Check out Arkham and start trading with real on chain insight at arkham.com.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得现在有太多人被这些特定的叙事误导而抛售了。

I think there's just so much so many people sold offside on these certain narratives right now too.

比如，你提到的泰勒所说的经济重新加速，我们一直在讨论这个，你可以看到利率下调的定价变化。

Like, one the you're talking about, Tyler, about the economic reacceleration, which we've been talking about, and you can see, like, just the the pricing of cuts.

现在突然间，我们得等到九月才能看到降息。

Now suddenly, we're not getting a cut until September.

这简直是一个巨大的逆转。

That's just been a huge reversal.

是的。

Yeah.

泰勒，你怎么说？

What are gonna say, Tyler?

我只是想说，增长在周期末尾看起来总是不错的。

Well, I was just saying growth always looks good at the end of the cycle as well.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得是的。

I think yeah.

我想，是不是上周我们聊过这个？

I I think was it last week we talked about this?

就像，是的。

It's like Yeah.

需要注意的是，这也可能是周期末尾。

Caveat, this could also be end of cycle.

比如，如果

Like, if

你观察同样的情况

you look the same

在早期阶段。

in the early phases.

而且，就像

And, like,

如果你遭遇一次大的石油冲击，这通常是经济衰退的一个重要信号。

if you get a big oil shock, that is one of the biggest, like, ticking of the boxes for a recession.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你可能需要更新一下幻灯片，但我还有一个特别棒的。

And so you might have to refresh the the slides, but I got one last great one.

第59页。

Slide 59.

这是标普500平均股票。

This is the S and P average three stock.

作为平均股票，它们的三个月实际波动率与指数波动率的对比，这简直是我最喜欢的一只股票或最喜欢的一张图表，来自高盛。

As we average stock, their three month realized volatility versus the index volatility, which is is literally one of my favorite stocks or favorite charts from Goldman.

看看它现在在哪里。

And look at where it is.

它正处于峰值。

It's at the peaks.

所以你的平均股票波动幅度远大于指数，对吧？

So your average stock is moving a lot more than your index, right?

但上一次出现这种情况是在2009年，当时那中间出现了一个缺口。

But what happens last time you've seen this is 2009, There was a gap in that.

我认为这确实是经济周期后期的行为，因为我觉得散户正在参与认购期权交易。

And I think really it's such late cycle behavior because I think you have retail playing with call options.

他们现在玩的是认沽期权。

They play with put options now.

他们大量买入认沽期权，这增加了市场的整体波动性。

They're really long puts, which increases the overall volatility in the market.

我们会看看这是否像1999年那样走势。

And we'll see if it's a move like 1999.

我不确定。

I don't know.

但无论如何，这都是典型的经济周期后期行为。

But either way, this is highly late cycle behavior.

再加上信用利差和全球地缘政治的不安，全球增长周期结束时会发生什么？

And with the credit spreads, with the global geopolitical angst, what happens at the end of global growth cycles?

你面临全球地缘政治冲突。

You have global geopolitical conflict.

不仅如此，科技巨头还进行了巨额资本支出，这正是2000年泡沫顶峰时发生的情况——大量资本涌入，预期着无限增长。

Not only that, but you also have massive CapEx from the tech leaders, which is exactly what happened in 2000, the blow off top when you had this giant supply of capital just funds it expecting infinity growth.

所以我有点担心，如果你遇到信贷问题，另一个有趣的现象是，甲骨文今天发布了声明。

So I'm a little bit I'm I'm very concerned that if you get a credit one of the other interesting things is, like, Oracle came out today and they said

我正想提到这一点。

I was about to bring that up.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你可以说你可以

You could say you can

谈谈这个。

talk about it.

是的。

Yeah.

基本上就是，我们一直在讨论整个资本支出问题，尤其是甲骨文有多冒险。

Just that basically, they you know, we've been talking about the whole CapEx thing and especially how risky Oracle was.

还有一条新闻说他们要裁员大量员工来为资本支出融资，这简直再糟糕不过了。

And there was a headline coming out that they were going to lay off a bunch of folks to basically fund their CapEx, and it's like, it doesn't get any worse than that.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

来看一下，翻到第49页。

And look at this is a Go to slide 49.

抱歉，我这边资料有点多。

Sorry, I'm loaded with

图表。

charts.

是的。

Yeah.

首席信息官正在告诉首席执行官们放缓资本支出。

CIO is telling CEOs to slow their CapEx.

显然，支出已经达到了天文数字，这一点我不太清楚。

So clearly the spend has been astronomical, which I don't know.

我们看看它是否能继续下去，但特朗普可能会在这里自食其果。

We'll see if it could keep going, but Trump might screw himself here.

嗯，这张图表其实很搞笑，因为它写的是‘净公司’。

Well, this chart is actually hilarious because it says net companies.

再次强调，整个市场都在讲人工智能，资本支出的繁荣，以及经济中的任何事物都跟人工智能有关。

Again, the market is all AI and the boom in CapEx and anything in the economy is AI.

那么这张图表到底是什么意思？

So what is this chart?

你干脆用这张图替换掉吧，我超喜欢这张图。

You should just replace it with this love this chart.

半导体。

Semiconductors.

看，这是一点。

See This is one thing.

这可不是主街。

This isn't Main Street.

他们完蛋了，被甩在后面了。

They're fucking dead and left behind.

这是AI资本支出的繁荣。

This is AI CapEx boom.

市场的其余部分开始稍微回暖了。

The rest of the market's starting to pick up a little.

哦，你请说。

Oh, go ahead.

我本来在转向债券，如果你想聊这个，如果你有

I was switching to bonds, if you want to go there, if you have

我想再谈一件事，关于LNG的情况，然后我们再进入债券市场，因为我确实想把债券联系起来。

some talk I want about one more thing about the LNG situation and then let's go into bonds because I do want to tie in the bond.

但我想提一下LNG的情况，因为它与AI资本支出紧密相关，天然气将成为推动这一基础设施建设所需能源的主要资金来源之一。

But I wanted to bring up the LNG situation because it's so tied to this AI CapEx of natural gas is going to be one of the big, you know, funding drivers of the energy that's needed for this build out.

我们最近看到的是，目前很多关注点都放在石油市场用于战略储备上，但我认为应该更多关注LNG市场和天然气市场的情况，因为这里出口的大宗商品中有18%与LNG相关。

And what we've been seeing is that I think, you know, a lot of the attention right now is on oil markets for the stratiform use, but I think there should be a lot more attention on what's going on with the LNG market and the natural gas market because, you know, 18% of commodity flows out of here are LNG related.

特别是卡塔尔的LNG出口是推动亚洲市场的重要动力。

And specifically, Qatar's LNG exports are a huge driver towards Asian markets.

自今年3月2日起，卡塔尔的LNG设施就一直处于停运状态。

And the Qatar LNG complex has been offline since March 2 now.

他们受到了影响。

They got hit.

所以，泰勒，你提到的阿纳斯·阿尔哈吉，你说得对。

And so to your point, Tyler, you mentioned Anas Alhaji.

这是他发布的一份报告，他在报告中提到，要重新启动生产至少需要好几周时间。

This is from a report that he was put up and he was talking about how, you know, that's going to take multiple weeks just to start to restart production again.

所以问题不在于我们有这些液化天然气运输运费被困在海峡无法通行，而是它们现在根本就没有在生产。

So it's not even that we have these LNG transportation freights that are stuck and can't go past the strait, but they're not even producing right now.

卡塔尔的液化天然气设施已停止运行。

The LNG facility is offline at Qatar.

它遭到了来自伊朗的无人机、导弹或其他东西的袭击。

It's been it's been hit by drones or missiles or whatever it was from Iran.

因此，我认为，这方面的风险可能比我们现在讨论的石油风险要高得多。

So this is, I think, where there could be a lot higher risk than what we're talking about with oil right now.

而这直接关联到，比如，是的。

And that that feeds directly, like, if yes.

这些液化天然气直接运往亚洲，但会推高全球的液化天然气价格，进而直接影响到计算基础设施和人工智能建设所需的资本支出成本，你们可以看到这一连串的连锁反应。

This is going directly to Asia, but it's gonna lift LNG prices across the globe, and that feeds directly into the compute into the AI build out costs of these CapEx and kind of see the sequence of events here.

是的。

Yeah.

还有那个人——那位教授提到的另一件事，他说，如果你能袭击迪拜的海水淡化厂，就能让这座城市瘫痪不知多久。

There was another thing that that guy said, the professor, he said, if you can hit these water desalination plants in Dubai, and it will knock out the city for God knows how long.

他们只有一周的水量。

They only have a week's worth of water.

中东有很多我们平时想不到的供应链问题，这些问题可能会严重拖累全球经济。

So there's a lot of weird supply chain things in The Middle East that we don't think about that could really derail the global economy.

尾部风险绝对巨大，就像这样。

And the tail risks are absolutely enormous, just like this.

关于LNG这件事，我也在推特上讨论过，因为我在战前就对天然气股票非常看涨，一直在等待时机并准备买入。

The LNG thing, I was tweeting about this too, because I was actually getting super bullish on natural gas names pre prewar and waiting for and stocking them close to buying.

但出了这事之后，价格却依然没有变动。

Then we get this and they still haven't moved.

我觉得我持有多头仓位。

I think I'm very long.

但其中一个看涨的催化剂是，大家都清楚，美国的LNG出口能力正在上升。

But the one of the bull catalysts is you have this rise in everybody knows about it, but LNG export capacity in The U.

美国。

S.

我们天然气储备非常充裕。

Were super flush with natural gas.

天然气储量无穷无尽，我们一直在逐步提升向全球出口的能力。

There's endless amounts and we just have been slowly developing an ability to export it globally.

但由于LNG出口和全球贸易的增长，欧洲、日本、韩国等能源短缺的国家，其库存水平虽未达到历史最低，但相对于经济规模而言已降至自2022年俄乌战争以来的最低点。

But because of the rise in LNG exports and trade globally, all of these countries that are short energy in Europe, Japan, South Korea, etcetera, they've been running basically not record low, but maybe record compared to the size of the economy and basically lowest inventory levels since the twenty twenty two Russia Ukraine invasion.

这件事的许多方面都让人感到似曾相识。

So there's so many things about this that rhyme.

如果这种情况持续超过几天，这些国家的能源状况将非常不利。

If this lasts any prolonged period of time besides a couple of days, these countries are very offsides.

电力已经是美国、欧洲及其他发达国家CPI和通胀指标中最重要的组成部分。

And electricity is already the number one component of CPI and inflation measures around not just in The US, but in Europe and these other developed nations.

因此，这也是一个政治敏感议题。

So it's a political hot button as well.

我认为这对该行业非常有利。

Think it's really bullish for that sector.

其他附属因素比如煤炭，一旦价格上涨，人们就会转向成本更低的替代品，还有小麦和农产品，这些也依赖经由中东运输的化肥。

The other ancillary things are like coal, which once prices rise, people switch to lower cost things and wheat and agricultural goods, too, that rely on these fertilizers flowing through through the Middle East.

你知道吗，我的一个理论是，最讽刺的总是结果本身。

You know what is my one of my theories is the most ironic thing is always the the outcome.

特朗普在第一任期内能做的一件事，就是通过政策对股市进行集中式的霸凌。

And one thing that Trump could do during his first term was complete central centralized bullying of the stock market, through policies, etc.

他一开始也这么做了。

And he started doing that, too.

他们昨天提出的一个有趣想法是：我们会释放战略石油储备，并派出军舰护送船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，同时取代通常用于中东油轮的劳合社保险。

And one interesting thing they floated yesterday was like, you know, they said, we're going to release the SPR and we're going to figure out naval vessels to accompany people through the Strait Of Hormuz and also replace Lloyd's of London's insurance that they usually put on oil tankers through The Middle East.

我们会以国家名义重新做这件事吗？

Will we redo it as a country?

所有这些都被完全忽视了。

And all those things were just completely discounted.

因为大家都清楚，特朗普只是在胡说八道，他从不

Because everybody knows Trump just is a spewing he just spews bullshit and never it's

通常情况下，你会看到油价在类似这种释放战略石油储备的情况下回落。

Well, you normally, you'd see, like, oil get faded off something like that or SPR release.

确实会持续一个小时。

It does for, an hour.

然后你会想，等等。

And you're like, oh, wait.

特朗普做不到这一点。

Trump can't do that.

是的。

Yeah.

但即便如此，石油市场仍然定价为一种自满情绪。

But even then, the oil market still priced for complacency.

它仍然假设这个问题会很快自行解决。

It's still priced as if this resolves itself pretty quickly.

对。

Yeah.

在某种程度上，它仍然在持续稳定地上涨。

To a certain extent, it's still going up consistently in a straight line.

我觉得这对我来说是一个信号。

And I just think that's a sign to me.

它不像乌克兰那样，出现暴涨后又迅速回落。

It's not trading like, you know, Ukraine where it was a whoop and back back down.

而 Vault 控制者们正面临作为控制者的困境，这或许正是中心化体系崩溃的开端，这就是我想说的。

And the the Vault controllers are having problems being Vault controllers, which is a central maybe this is the boot the blow off top of centralization is what I'm saying.

如果你以为自己能掌控一切，最终生活总会回来咬你一口。

It's like, if you think you can control everything and that you inevitably life comes back at you and bites you in your ass.

我觉得所有这些事情正在同时发生，因为这是全球性的——你知道，战争，而大多数美国人并不真正想要它。

And I think all these things are colliding at the same time because it's global you know, war when most US people don't necessarily want it.

你知道，所有这些全球性的激励因素正在同一时刻相互碰撞。

You know, you have you have all these incentives colliding globally at the same exact time.

对我来说，这感觉就像我们在见证某种全球霸权力量的瓦解。

And it's just it's it feels to me like the end of this is a we're watching the end of some sort of global hegemonic power unwind.

这和自尊心有很大关系。

And it it has a lot to do with ego.

对吧？

Right?

因为当你强迫别人做他们不想做的事时，你就会逼得别人不得不回应。

Like because you're you're forcing it when a lot of people don't and you'll force other people's hands.

如果中国对台湾采取行动，会发生什么？

Like, what happens if China shakes Taiwan?

这看起来分明就是让你卷入第三次世界大战。

You're caught in World War III is really what it's looking like to me.

在总统任期初期，他看起来还算平和，似乎在重新制定某种全球性的社会契约。

In the beginning of the presidency, it looked like he was kind of copacetic and rewriting some sort of social contract for the globe.

但现在看来，情况正在恶化。

And now it seems to be devolving.

严重得多。

Big time.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这正好是一个很好的过渡，可以谈谈整个债券问题，因为我觉得这确实表明，当前的情况与以往的地缘政治事件完全不同。

I think I think that's a good segue into talking about the whole bond thing because I think it's it's really showing that this is, like, directly a different situation than previous geopolitical events.

而且，昆恩，你之前就一直在提醒这一点，说得对。

And to your props, Quinn, you you've been calling for this.

我的意思是，你看。

Is that, like, look.

如果伊朗遭到打击，债券的表现不会如你所愿。

When when if slash when Iran gets hit, bonds are not gonna act the way you hope.

它们不会成为安全港，我们已经看到债券出现了相当显著的抛售。

They're not gonna be that safe haven, and we've seen just a a pretty significant sell off in bonds.

人们想要美元，但没人想要债券。

People have wanted dollars, but nobody wants bonds.

所以我做了一些回溯测试，你可以看到，自空袭以来的头几天，通常情况下你会看到美国长期债券出现大幅上涨。

So I've been doing some back testing on this, and you can see, like, the first couple of days since the strike has been you know, typically what you see is this major rally in US bonds, the long end bonds.

而且你看到这种避险、安全资产的轮动，但这次却完全相反。

And and you see this, you know, just flight to safety, safe haven type of rotation, and it's been the complete opposite this time.

我们看到了美国长期债券的显著抛售。

We've seen a pretty substantial sell off in The US long bond.

你可以把它和以往的历史地缘政治事件做个对比。

And you can just look at it compared to previous historical geopolitical events.

通常情况下，确实会出现油价的上涨。

And typically what happens is that, yeah, you get, you know, certain increase in price and of oil.

当然，这具有通胀效应，但你仍然会看到债券市场出现避险轮动。

And of course, that is inflationary, but, you know, still it's you get this this flight to safeties safe haven rotation in bonds.

这种相关性在过去几十年的多个案例中都被证明是可靠的。

And you can see that's been a tried and true correlation for for multiple instances now over decades.

即使是像俄乌战争这样的事件，我们也看到了债券的上涨，尽管那是在2021年通胀之后。

Even ones like, you know, the Russia Ukraine war, we did see a rally in bonds even though that was post 2021 in inflation.

但这次，你看看右上角，或者大致位置，我们经历了债券的大规模抛售。

But this time, you look in the top right or where around is is we've had this major sell off in bonds.

所以我认为你能看出来。

So I think you can see it.

这不一样。

This is different.

这不仅仅是我们的感觉或直觉。

Like, it's not just our feeling or our vibes.

就像， Vault 控制者们在面对地缘政治事件中债券如此大幅抛售时，似乎也难以控制局面，这确实令人担忧。

Like, there is this, like the vault controllers are having trouble vault controlling if bonds are selling off like this in geopolitical events, and that's really concerning.

即使你单独来看，显然在这一轮行情之前，债券原本是在上涨的，人们说这是因为对人工智能的担忧之类的。

And even when you just isolate like, obviously, the lead up into this move, bonds are rallying off, you know, people were saying is because of, like, this AI fears or what have yous.

但即使你试图排除这种趋势因素，美国债券的抛售幅度相对于历史常态而言仍然非常显著，而通常在这种行情下，债券应该是上涨的。

But even when you just try to isolate for that momentum, it's still, a very significant sell off in in US bonds relative to historical norms, which is where it's typically at this rally.

所以，是的，我想昆恩已经相当清晰地指出了这一点，我想听听你现在对这个观点的看法。

So, yeah, I mean, perhaps Quinn, called this out pretty nicely, so I want to hear about how you're thinking about this thesis right now.

对。

Yeah.

简单提一下，泰勒提到的那个单个名称波动率图表。

Well, just to tie in real quick one thing Tyler pointed on that single name volatility chart.

我刚查了赤字占GDP的比例，如果这个交易 regime 的前两个类似情况是1999年、2007年和2008年，那么1999到2000年的赤字占GDP比例是2%的盈余，2007年是1%的赤字，而我们现在是6%。

I was just pulling up the deficit to GDP, if the last two corollaries of this trading regime was 1999, February 2007, 2008, The deficit to GDP in 'ninety nine, 2000 was 2% surplus, and the deficit to GDP in 'seven was 1% deficit, and we're at six.

所以，我实在想不通，完全无法理解。

So you're looking at I just can't, for the life of me, understand.

这个 regime 已经持续五年了。

The regime's been the same for five years.

自2021年以来，债券就一直表现不佳，情况始终如一。

Since 2021, bonds have not worked, and it's been the same thing.

这一点已经被反复强调了。

It's been highlighted.

市场一次又一次被提醒：解放日来了，债券不再是避险资产。

The market's been hit over the head with this Liberation Day, this, time and again that bonds are not a safe haven.

2022年，每一天都在狠狠地提醒你这一点。

2022 hits you over the head every single day.

为什么人们还在通货膨胀已经不再下降的时候争相购买债券？

Why do people keep rushing into bonds when inflation's done going down?

他们仍在使用所有能想到的手段。

They're continuing to use every trick in the book.

主流经济数据实际上正在升温。

Mainstream economic data is actually heating up.

我们假设战争结束，然后由于石油和大宗商品重新流入本已增加的主街资本支出，需求开始回升，因此经济增长。

Let's just say the war ends and then you get a demand pickup because oil and commodities are flowing again into already increasing CapEx in Main Street, and so growth increases.

与此同时，所有这些情况下，债券收益率却只交易在4%左右，这低于我们的赤字水平。

All of this you have, meanwhile, bonds yields are trading like 4%, which is below our deficit level.

它低于名义增长率。

It's below nominal growth levels.

我实在想不通，谁会去买债券。

I just can't, for the life of me, understand who would buy bonds.

整个AI叙事中，当人们读到这篇前瞻性虚构文章时，就把过去五年所有的数据点都抛到了九霄云外。

The whole AI narrative, everyone just threw every single data point of the last five years out the window when they read this forward looking fiction piece.

给Sattrini点赞，那篇论文是有史以来最成功的研究成果。

Props to Sattrini that got That's the most successful research piece ever published.

祖父母们都在读这些东西。

Grandparents are reading that shit.

但我真的搞不懂，为什么所有人都把所有基本面数据抛到脑后，反而推高了TLT。

But I just, for the life of me, don't understand how everyone just threw every single fundamental data point out the window and bid TLT.

它只是经历了一波冲高回落的走势，而我们现在就在这里。

It just had this blow off top that was a lower high, and here we are.

另外一点是，你不能说‘如果战争结束、一切安好，债券就是个绝佳买入机会’，因为事实并非如此——债券根本没有跟上通胀，收益率也没有随着大宗商品和其他因素的通胀压力而上升。

The other thing here too is you can't look at bonds and say, Oh, well, if the war stops and everything's fine, bonds are a great buy, because they're not, because bonds have not kept up with the inflationary Yields have not risen with the inflationary impulse of commodities and everything else.

它们一直非常平稳。

They've been very tame.

所以这纯粹是两头落空。

So it's just a lose lose.

我并不是说债券会在这里突然崩盘。

I'm not saying they're going to blow out here.

所以我实际上做空债券波动率和债券。

So I'm actually short bond volatility and short bonds.

但这实在太难看了。

But it's just ugly.

根本就没有理由持有它。

Like, there's just no reason to own it.

这可能是个奇怪的故事，但正是这篇Trini的文章引发了这场风波，因为它们涉及到了某种 regime 变化，你知道有些事情正在改变。

This this is probably a weird story, but that's a Trini piece that it it caused, this ruckus because they're sort of like regime changes and you know that certain things are changing.

我记得在2008年，我在一家叫KBW的公司工作，那是一家专门研究银行业的公司。

I remember in 2008, I was working at this company called KBW, which is a bank that just covers banks.

有一位名叫梅丽莎·罗伯茨的女士写了一篇文章，指出整个银行体系资本不足。

There's a woman named Melissa Roberts who wrote this piece about how the entire banking system was undercapitalized.

我想她写这篇文章是在2007年。

And it was like, I think it's 2007 when she wrote it.

文章一出，立刻引发巨大震动，各地的人都争相获取这篇文稿，因为它基本上是在说我们资本不足，正走向某种信贷事件。

And immediately it caused the biggest stir where people from all over were like, Oh my God, gonna get hands on this piece because it was basically saying we were undercapitalized and heading into some sort of credit event.

这是2007年初。

This is early in 2007.

从那时起，所有银行的净核销额就开始上升。

All the banks basically started like, net charge offs started going up from there.

它们开始大量发行股票，试图阻止这场信贷危机的发生。

They they started issuing, you know, equity left and right to try and, like, stop this credit crisis from happening.

当时有一些具有里程碑意义的文章，随后梅雷迪思·惠特尼也开始发布大量相关内容。

There was, like, seminal pieces that and then you got Meredith Whitney posting about all this stuff that started coming out after.

而整个向人工智能的过渡感觉有些类似，就像进入了一个新的市场格局，新的叙事不断涌现，人们纷纷跟进，试图把握现实的本质。

And this whole transition to AI feels somewhat similar where it's like new market regime, new narratives coming out, people are jumping on things and trying to grasp what reality is like.

与此同时，这背后其实正悄然瓦解着一场巨大的资本支出繁荣和私募股权泡沫。

At the same time, it's just like this giant CapEx boom and private equity bubble that's kind of unwinding under the surface.

我不知道，但我觉得是时候付账了，不过政府一直很容易用各种手段掩盖这些问题。

And I don't know, I think it's time to pay the piper, but it's been easy for the government to paper over these things.

所以，如果我们看到信贷收紧，或者信贷利差收窄、债券收益率下降，我可能会改变主意。

So I might change my mind if we see credit tighten or credit spreads come down and bond yields come down.

但正如你所说的，昆恩，此时此刻，这感觉像是一场代际变革，从各个角度来看，财政状况都糟透了。

But like you said, Quinn, at this point, it feels like a generational change where the finances are so bad from every single angle.

唯一还算不那么惨的，是消费者资产负债表已经部分去杠杆了。

The only thing that's not completely miserable is the consumer balance sheet is somewhat delevered.

但我们经济的一半人口，连下一笔工资都付不起。

But half of our economy, people can't even pay next paycheck.

所以这就像是完全失衡了。

So there's just like, you know, it's completely imbalanced.

我认为所有这些事情都到了该清算的时候了。

And I think all these things are it's coming home to roost.

我现在真不知道该往哪儿躲。

I just don't know where you hide out right now.

如果美元走强，黄金肯定会遭重创。

Like, gold is gonna get whacked if we see the dollar rally.

债券已经完蛋了。

Bonds are cooked.

股票市场，是的，就像我们一直讨论的那样，到处都是地雷。

Equities, yeah, like there's just endless minefields that we've been talking about.

你从昆恩那里开始，那就是那里

You go from a Quinn that's that's where

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这仅仅是美元的问题吗？

I mean, that's just dollars?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我认为这就是为什么国债收益率最终可能会下降，就像那样。

Well, I think that's why treasury yields might actually eventually go down just as like Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你会看到危机引发的行情，然后债券会小幅反弹。

You'll get the crisis move and then bonds will rally a bit.

但在前端，而不是后端，所有人都知道即将发生什么。

But on the front end, not the back end, everyone knows what's coming.

我们正进入一个需要避开废话的时期。

We're entering this period where you need to sidestep the bullshit.

我们知道另一端会是什么。

We know what's on the other end.

另一端将会到来的是政策制定者的干预。

What's on the other end is going to come, which is going to be intervention from policymakers.

但就像我本周写的‘解放日’一样，我说过：关注石油、关注天然气、关注大宗商品，关注债券，因为这些才是关键。

But just like Liberation Day, I wrote this week, I said, Watch oil, watch nat gas, watch commodities and watch bonds for the tacos.

不要关注股票市场，因为影响政策转向的指标在这里，美联储无法通过注入流动性来解决大宗商品危机。

Don't watch the equity markets because the meters here that will influence pivots in policy, the Fed can't do anything here to just put liquidity into a commodity crisis.

这就像解放一样。

This is like liberation.

这就像又一次新冠疫情。

This is like COVID once again.

因此，你必须关注这些其他市场，它们会促使白宫方面试图调整政策。

And so you have to watch these other markets that instigate an attempt to pivot from the fiscal White House side.

但与解放日不同，那时特朗普只需发推文说：结束了，你已经干掉了他们的前一百名领导人。

But unlike the Liberation Day where Trump can just tweet, It's over, you just killed their top 100 leaders.

所以当你想谈判时，我甚至不知道该找谁。

So when you want to negotiate, I don't even know who you call.

而现在，你面对的是一场全面的宗教战争，‘死亡美国’，基本上就是制造混乱，这一切都是你挑起的。

And now you have this whole religious war, death to America and basically just, I mean, raising hell, it's just you've instigated it.

打战争真的有一件事，那就是你继续战斗的意志。

There's a real thing in fighting wars, which is your will to keep fighting.

以及在那片土地上部署地面部队在政治上是否可行。

And how politically tenable it is to put boots on the ground there.

我个人认为这并非不可能，但我认为，这将是战争走向终结的开端，就我们的成功而言。

Like, I don't think that's out of the question personally, but I think, you know, would be the start of the end of the war in terms of our success.

但如果你是伊朗，你就想要一场战争。

But if you're Iran, you want one.

你希望美军地面部队进驻，因为那里的地形非常复杂，难以作战。

You want American boots on the ground because it's a very difficult terrain to fight.

那里是山区。

It's mountainous.

这带来了许多优势。

There's a lot of advantages.

你激怒了九千万人。

You just riled up 90,000,000 people.

普通伊朗人可能讨厌他们的领导人，但美国在中东入侵过的国家里，什么时候做过什么好事、好事或积极的事？

Like, The average Iranian, they might have hated their leader, but when has The US ever done anything good, nice, or positive to a country we've invaded in The Middle East?

你可能恨透了那个人，但我们入侵并摧毁的每一个国家，都从未给予过任何帮助。

You might hate the guts of the guy, but we've leveled and destroyed and never helped any country we've come in and invaded.

所以，我不认为事情像特朗普说的那样乐观，觉得我们随时都能结束这场战争。

So I don't think it's as sanguine as Trump's like, Oh, we can end this war whenever we want.

而赫格斯说，我们会坚持到底，直到结束。

And HEGS is saying, We're going to finish it till the end.

最好的情况是你迅速进入，迅速撤离。

Best case scenario is you have a very quick You get in, get out.

从那以后，中东一切保持平稳，事情恢复常态，但我不确定是否真的如此。

Everything stays copacetic in The Middle East from that point on and things go back to normal, which I don't know.

我觉得马其诺防线已经被跨越了。

I feel like the Maginot line is crossed.

我不是地缘政治专家。

Not a geopolitical expert.

但你能想象如果他们派地面部队进去吗？

But could you imagine if they put boots on the ground?

那将是一场代际性的第四次转折，我认为老一辈新保守主义的时代就此终结。

That would be the generational fourth turning where I think the boomer neocon thing would just be over.

我认为下一代已经厌倦了无休止的战争。

And I think the next generation is just sick of endless wars.

你能感受到下一代中，没人想要这种东西。

And you can kind of feel it in our next generations that no one wants this stuff.

大多数情况下，如果我坦诚地回顾过去，他们根本没有给我们信任政府的理由。

Most of it's just, if I'm being completely honest in hindsight, they haven't given us a reason to trust the government.

还有整个这件事，首先是爱泼斯坦文件，接着国会又就性侵案进行投票，这简直是极其恶劣的行为。

And and like this whole thing with, first of all, the Epstein files, and then you follow it up with this vote vote in congress about the sexual assault was one of the most egregious things.

这就像是我们正被一群恋童癖者领导着。

It's like, oh, we're just being we're being led by a bunch of pedophiles.

在社会中往上爬的唯一方式，就是人们必须对你做出妥协。

It's like the only way you get up in society is people have to have compromise on you.

这对我来说，就是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。

And that was just the nail in the coffin for me.

这是一个代际转折点，人们已经对这一切忍无可忍了——不管是什么样的激励机制把这些人推上了权力位置，现在都会瓦解。

Is the generational turning point where people are just fed up with I mean whatever incentives brought these people into power will unwind.

这其实是个很好的提醒，现在这一切都发生在中期选举前夕。

I mean, it's a good reminder that this is, yeah, all happening in the lead up to midterms right now.

而且，这是一项非常不受欢迎的政治决策。

And, like, this is a very politically unpopular policy decision.

共和党人在众议院已经完蛋了，现在可能在参议院也撑不住了。

Like, the Republicans are already cooked in the house, and and now they might be cooked in the senate too.

他们可能会被彻底碾压。

Like, they could get steamrolled.

如果美军真的投入地面作战，而三个月、四个月后还在打仗，我都不知道局势会变成什么样。

If if if boots go on the ground and they're still fighting in three, four months, like, I don't even know where these odds are gonna be.

这就是为什么我们的听众需要明白，所有人都要明白，这是一场政治精英阶层与普通大众之间的对抗。

This is why our listeners need to understand that, and and everybody, that this is a it's a political elite class versus everybody else.

这不是红蓝之争，因为在所有这些投票中，埃普斯坦事件在拜登任内也被掩盖了。

It's an it's it's not a red versus blue thing because in all these votes, the Epstein stuff, it was covered up under Biden.

在特朗普任内也被掩盖了。

It's covered up under Trump.

所有牵涉其中的人，无论是红党还是蓝党都有。

All the people implicated are red and blue.

投票反对公开性骚扰事件的国会成员，也既有红党也有蓝党。

The people who voted for not releasing sexual misconduct Congress are red and blue.

两党合作的

Bipartisan.

是的

Yeah.

现在这些政客每晚回家时都会说，至少现在大家不再讨论埃普斯坦文件了，虽然这依然是个烂摊子，中东又在牺牲孩子的生命，没人喜欢这样，

It's the number one thing that these guys are going home now at night and saying, Well, at least it's a shit show and we're losing kids' lives over in The Middle East again and no one likes it, but at least they're not talking about Epstein files anymore.

他们在谈论保卫美国

They're talking about defending U.

的

S.

霸权

Hegemony.

所以，这不过是另一个例证，说明我们必须停止党派和民众之间的内斗，因为愤怒应该指向我们的政策制定者。

So it's just another arrow in the cap of how we need to stop the infighting between parties and people because the anger needs to be directed towards our policymakers.

我真的不知道，如果没有一个新的政党，事情会如何收场。

I really don't know how it shakes out without a new party.

我原本以为民主党几年前就会分裂，因为当时他们已经出现分化。

I thought the Democrats were going to break apart a couple of years ago because they were splintering.

现在轮到共和党了。

Now it's the Republicans.

对于那些想要基本美国生活方式的普通温和派人士来说，已经没有容身之地了。

And there's just no home for your average, pretty moderate person anymore who wants basic American things.

政治在这里将根据人口结构进一步分裂。

Politics are just going to splinter here demographically.

一旦婴儿潮一代的影响力消退，情况就会变得惊人。

And as soon as the boomer vibe goes out, it's incredible.

这算是个个人的补充说明，我妈妈经常看新闻，但她只看主流媒体。

This is a side personal note, but my mom carries it down and she only watches mainstream news.

令人惊讶的是，她甚至不知道这两种叙事。

And it's kind of incredible how she doesn't even know both narratives.

她无法了解真实情况，因为根本没有真实的信息传达到婴儿潮一代那里。

She can't tell you real things because there's no real information getting to boomers.

有一对夫妇喜欢听播客，我很喜欢这一点。

There's a couple that watch podcasts, which I love.

但大规模来看，我认为在人口结构更替之前，很难突破这种局面。

But en masse, I think it's really hard to break through that until there's a demographic turnover.

我所想的是，目前还太早，无法下定论。

The thing that I And it's too early to say one way or the other at this point.

但现阶段，我对特朗普政府最大的疑问是：你们为何在2025年一整年不断抨击美联储，释放流动性，刺激市场，动用所有手段来推高、掠夺、欺诈市场，却在中期选举前十个月突然耗尽所有工具，任由局势崩盘——而那时你们恰恰最需要正面的评价和高支持率。

But probably the biggest question for the Trump administration that I have at this stage is, why did you spend all of 2025 berating the Fed, pumping liquidity, juicing markets, using every tool in the toolkit to pump, grift, scam, everything's markets, only to then be out of any tool and just blow it up in the ten months before the midterms at a time when you need positive reviews and approval ratings the most.

他们完全是因为傲慢、贪婪和过度自信，觉得‘马杜罗事件’很成功，因为我们抓到了一个3000万人口国家里离我们只有100英里的家伙。

They totally, one, it's hubris, it's greed, it's just overconfidence because, Oh, Maduro went well because we captured a guy in a country of 30,000,000 people, you know, 100 miles from our country.

所以我们就以为自己能推翻一个9000万人口、且被敌对国家包围的海外政权。

So we think we can go dismantle a 90,000,000 population regime on the other side of the world that surrounded by countries that hate us.

这简直荒谬，完全是傲慢。

Like that is ludicrous, like hubris.

但这实在太疯狂了。

But it's just wild.

我最大的疑问是，为什么他们在中期选举前一年如此激进地刺激市场、注入流动性，迫使美联储降息。

That's the biggest question I have is why did they go so gung ho pumping markets, pumping liquidity, getting the Fed to cut all of these things in the year before the midterms.

而今年他们却彻底搞砸了。

Now they're just absolutely shitting the bad this year.

确实如此。

It is.

你不禁怀疑，他们这里有什么计划吗？

You wonder, is there a plan here?

因为情况可能会恶化，但我觉得他们可能打算这么做：我们看到比特币反弹了，他们可能会推动《清晰法案》通过。

Because it might devolve, but what I think they're going to probably try and do is just We saw Bitcoin rallying and they're going get the Clarity Act through.

我不知道，也许他们觉得加密货币的大牛市能奏效。

I don't know, maybe they think a giant bull market in crypto works.

我已经看到埃里克·特朗普谈论过这件事，说银行拥有垄断地位。

I already saw Eric Trump talking about it and how banks have this monopoly.

你的意思是，这些说法都得打个折扣。

Mean, you got to discount all this stuff.

但到目前为止，整个骗局已经暴露了。

But at this point, the whole grift is up.

我认为就连他都失去了很多人。

I think even he's lost a lot of people.

我不知道接下来会怎样。

I don't know where it goes from here.

我的意思是，感觉就像冰面非常薄。

I mean, it's feeling very, very like the ice is thin.

是的。

Yeah.

这真难啊，老兄。

It's tough, man.

撇开现实生活中的市场波动指标不谈，这些指标因为对冲和其他因素而失真，但你无法为现实生活中的社会和政治波动购买看跌期权，因此也就没有时间衰减和股票回购。

The real life market volatility metrics aside get skewed because you have hedging and all this stuff, but you can't buy puts on real life societal and political volatility, and so you don't have the decay and the buybacks.

我最喜欢的唯一一句话是：你对社会的正直进行对冲。

It's My only favorite quote, you hedge societal upright.

是的。

Yeah.

随着中期选举的日期临近，所有趋势都朝着不利方向发展，这意味着绝望情绪加剧，干预结果的意愿和力量也随之增强，从而引发一些奇怪的现象。

As we get you have a dot on the calendar of midterms, and you have everything trending in the wrong direction, meaning desperation increases and, you know, force might and interest in affecting outcomes increases and it creates some weird stuff.

所以，正如你们在节目开头提到的，我认为今年能赚钱的机会主要是一到五天的短线交易，而且整体偏向做空。

So I just I mean, to your guys' message at the start of the show, you know, you don't I think the money to be made this year is like one to five day trades and largely short bias.

但真正愿意或能够这样操作的，可能只占投资群体的5%。

And if That's like 5% of investing community who actually wants to do that or can do that.

除此之外，现金可能是个不错的选择，因为如果所有人都涌向避险资产，就连黄金和金属这类传统安全资产也面临压力——美联储不降息，AI资本支出热潮正在消退，市场正疯狂追逐近期流动性与货币，这些领域也可能受到冲击。

Other than that, you know, cash is probably pretty good because if everyone's piled, even the safe havens, gold and metals where the Fed's not cutting and the AI CapEx boom is faltering and there's a dash for near dated liquidity and currency, even those areas could be challenged.

不错。

It's- Nice.

想象一下，我们只是逆势者，刚刚在这里标记了低点。

Imagine we're just the contra and we just marked the low right here.

确实如此。

Very, true.

明天早上会有一个公告，说一切都完美无缺，

Gonna get an announcement tomorrow morning that everything's hunky dory and

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一下，我们已经解决了所有全球性问题。

By the way, we solved all the global issues.

他正在和G一起波动。

And he's beating with g.

他是，你知道的，我们有了一个新的最高领导人。

He's you know, they we have a new supreme leader.

一切都很好。

Everything's good.

油价下跌了。

Oil drops.

马克，他说，人工智能最终成为了千禧年的生产力爆发。

Mark, he goes, AI turns out to be the productivity boom of the millennium.

是的。

Is the Yeah.

kind

Kind

我们错了。

we're wrong.

我真希望所有问题都能自行解决。

I'd love to I'd love for everything to resolve itself.

我要说一点。

I will say this.

我越来越常使用Claude了，这真的让我很紧张。

This is I'm using Claude more and more, and it's absolutely like, I'm really nervous.

而且这是我们对制度的很好评论。

I and this is our good, like, commentary on on institutions.

但我对那些刚毕业的年轻一代感到非常担忧，因为我现在用Claude，基本上三天就能完成原本需要15个实习生的工作。

But I'm so nervous about the new up and coming kids coming out of college because I'm doing, like I could have 15 interns right now with Claude basically doing like, three days.

疯狂。

Insane.

我现在用得太多了。

I use it so much right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我可以一下子提出20个想法，想做回测、随机回归之类的，都能立刻完成。

I can just run I can just have, like, 20 ideas I wanna back test and, like, do random regressions or what have you and just do it instantly.

太疯狂了。

It's insane.

所以我的社会评论是，我真的认为大学和教育体系需要一场系统性的改革。

So my social commentary is I really do think colleges, the educational profession needs a systemic rehaul.

也许大学生们已经在思考这些问题了，他们都在大学里成为AI专家，然后抢走我们的所有工作，这完全有可能。

And maybe they're thinking about this in college, and they're all becoming AI experts in college, and they'll take all our jobs, which is completely possible.

但有一部分孩子毕业时可能背负着债务。

But there's a contingent of kids that probably are coming out with debt.

我无法想象，作为一个高中生，现在还想着上大学去从事某种职业。

And I can't imagine being a high school kid thinking I'm gonna go to college to be whatever at this point.

你能想象那种感觉吗？

Like, could you imagine what that feels like?

你现在该进入哪个行业？

What industry do you go to right now?

大概你只能去搞人工智能了。

Guess you go to an AI.

我觉得你可以开一家主街小店，这种生意不需要太多专业知识，因为多年来没人这么做了。

I think you start a main street business that doesn't take a lot of expertise because no one's done that for years and years and years.

所有人都盯着金融市场，一切都过度金融化了。

Everyone's focused on financial markets and everything's over financialized.

不管人工智能是否成功，假设人工智能是最伟大的成功。

And whether AI works or not, let's say AI is the biggest success.

这正是我对所有末日论调最不满的地方。

This is my biggest beef with all the doom pieces.

如果人工智能是最伟大的成功，而10%的劳动力被裁员，那你肯定需要像罗斯福时代应对大萧条那样，让人民重新工作，而这将通过基础设施和实实在在的项目来实现。

If AI is the biggest success ever and 10% of the workforce is laid off, you're going to need some FDR style Great Depression know, Yeah, you're going to have to put the people to work and how that's going to be infrastructure and real things.

因此，在这个市场领域，所有人都在追逐金融化，导致真正实体领域的人才所剩无几，而大量资金将涌入这些实体领域。

So it's a part of the market where everyone's been chasing financialization and so there's not a lot of talent left in real things that you're going to have a flood of money going towards real things.

如果你是第一个朝这个方向迈进的人，市场自有其美妙的运作方式——看不见的手是最强大、也最常正确的力量。

If you're a first mover towards that, markets have a beautiful way of The invisible hand is the most powerful and oftentimes correct force out there.

我们总以为自己掌控一切，科技精英控制一切，生活在一个孤立的世界里。

We think we run everything and tech bros control everything and we live in this separate world.

但看不见的手已经存在了数百年，它最终总会修正一切。

But the invisible hand's been around for eons Last fixes a

一个哲学观点是，我不知道你有没有注意到，埃里克·韦恩斯坦最近一直在谈论这个话题，即科学本质上是如何转变的。

philosophical thought is, I don't know if you saw this, but Eric Weinstein's been talking about this a lot, which is how science basically turn.

然后你有了大量这些科学期刊。

Took then you had a lot of these scientific journals.

这关乎出版，事情越来越不注重突破，而更关注你能发表多少东西。

It was about publishing and things became less about breakthroughs and more about just how many things can you publish?

整个专业科学完全被扭曲了。

The whole professional science was completely perverted.

我认为与此同时，Teal 和 Eric Weinstein 是我们的朋友，他们谈到我们离开伍德斯托克之后，实体经济陷入了长期停滞。

And I think at the same time, Teal and Eric Weinstein are our buddies, they talked about how we left after Woodstock, there was secular stagnation in real things.

现在，从宏观角度来看，我们可能正在见证数字领域的泡沫顶峰，以及对原子、改变世界的真实事物——如核能和太空等——的投资重新兴起。

Now, maybe what we're really watching from a macro perspective is the blow off top in bits and a reemergence of investing in atoms, real things that change the world, nuclear and space, etcetera.

我认为这正是我们正在见证的事情。

I think that's really what we're watching here.

AI 只是大量软件的商品化。

AI is just the commoditization of a lot of software.

我们正在目睹所有投入这一领域的资本，见证了它的泡沫顶峰。

We're watching all the capital that went into this thing for we saw the blow off top of it.

而现在，这将有助于在未来二三十年甚至四十年重建真实产业，并让它们变得更高效。

And now that will help rebuild real things for the next twenty, thirty, forty years and make them more efficient.

这就是我的想法。

So that was my thought.

但我关于埃里克·韦恩斯坦的观点是我们意识到自己为何现在发生了转变。

But my point on the Eric Weinstein thing is the fact that we're aware of why we now moved.

我们只是转向了数字领域。

We just went to bits.

在那整个时期，我们一直在数字领域持续创新。

We kept innovating in bits for that whole period of time.

现在我们意识到，天哪，我们不得不重新投资于实体事物。

Now we realize, Oh my God, we're going to have to reinvest in real stuff.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

是的。

Yeah.

你们觉得呢？

Do you guys think?

伙计，腹肌，我们缺腹肌。

Dude, abs, we're short abs.

我同意。

I agree.

我认为有很多值得乐观的地方。

I think there's a lot of optimism to be had.

我的意思是，沃伦那件事真的很糟，对谁都没好处。

I mean, the Warren stuff sucks and that's just not good for anybody.

但就整个AI生产力而言，尽管外界充斥着悲观情绪，但与此同时，对于那些身处这些封闭社区之外的人——比如华尔街、大科技公司——只要开一个Twitter账号，启动一个AI代理，就能用和别人一样的工具大展身手。

But in terms of the whole AI productivity, think for all the doom that's out there, it's also at the same time never been easier for someone who's on the outside of some of these walled garden gated communities, Wall Street, big tech, fire up a Twitter account, fire up an AI agent, and you're off to the races with the same tools that everybody else has.

你不必再花几年时间在华尔街的邮件室里，试图挤进这个对普通人封闭的精英圈子。

You don't have to go spend years in the mail room on Wall Street trying to break in to this niche community that's super gated off from the average Joe.

所以，如果从这个角度看，机遇前所未有地平等，因为AI正在让智能民主化。

So I think the opportunity, if you look at it that way, never been The playing field's never been more level because AI is democratizing intelligence.

但也许我们正面临注意力持续时间短、延迟满足能力不足和雄心缺失的问题，这些都需要被解决。

But maybe there's a shortage of attention spans, ability to delay gratification and ambition that needs to be addressed.

但你可以学会的，你知道的。

But you can you can learn that, you know?

你可以重新学会。

You can relearn it.

我觉得你是能学会的。

I think you learn it.

希望你离开之后还能记得。

Hopefully after you leave it there.

是的。

Yeah.

刷了二十年的手机。

Scrolling for twenty years.

对，对，对，

Yeah, yeah, yeah,

是的。

Yeah.

把你的大脑从微波炉里拿出来，休息五分钟。

Take your brain out of the microwave for five minutes.

去外面待一会儿。

Spend it outside.

也许还有希望。

Maybe there's hope.

也许还有希望。

Maybe there's hope.

你知道吗？

You know what?

说到这个，有一条走红的推文说：他们把你这个拿走了。

On that note, was a viral tweet that said, They took this away from you.

是一群孩子一起骑着自行车从街上经过。

It was a bunch of kids riding a bike down the street together.

我当时就想，我还有这个。

And I was like, I still have that.

我在德克萨斯州仍然有这种体验，这还挺酷的。

I still have that in Texas, which is kind of dope.

我认为很多社交活动将会重新兴起。

I think there's going to be a reemergence of a lot of social things.

各种事情。

Things.

我对未来的真正人际互动持乐观态度。

I'm bullish on real human interaction going forward.

我也是。

Same.

太棒了。

Love it.

非常乐观。

Super bullish.

是的。

Yeah.

太棒了，伙计们。

Sweet, guys.

很好，一站式搞定，兄弟们。

Good Good one stop, stop, boys.

是的。

Yep.

我们会进行更多监控。

Be doing more monitoring.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是为什么这周感觉特别长，因为我们整个周末都在推特上盯着炸弹之类的新闻。

That's why this week felt so long because we were just on Twitter all weekend watching bombs and shit.

没错。

Exactly.

我觉得下周我要跟你们一起搞个油头造型。

I think I'm gonna do the slick back hair thing next week with you guys.

我们也应该搞一个这样的东西。

Should get one of these things going too.

看看那个约翰·库萨克。

Look at that John Cusack.

哇。

Wow.

天啊。

Damn.

加拿大的所有女士都表示赞同。

All the ladies in Canada just Yeah.

我得赶紧在这儿说一下，不然我要脸红了。

I'm I'm hitting that here before I start blushing.

是的。

Yeah.