AI放松时刻与Warsh的长期博弈 | 每周综述

《前瞻指引》中提到的任何内容都不构成买卖任何投资或产品的建议。

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.

好的。

Alright.

大家最近怎么样？

What's going on, everybody?

欢迎回到《前瞻指引》的又一期总结版。

Welcome back to another roundup edition of Forward Guidance.

这周就我们两个人。

Just the duo this week.

泰勒现在正在休假，忙着当爸爸，所以就让咱们这两个没孩子的人替他顶一下班。

Tyler is on summer dad duties on vacation right now, so we'll give him a break as the two guys without children.

所以，有时候你也得理解一下。

So, you know, sometimes you gotta do that.

我们想你了，泰勒。

We miss you, Tyler.

对了，奎因，你最近怎么样？

But, yeah, what's going on, Quinn?

没什么特别的，兄弟。

Not much, man.

又是一周飞快过去了。

Another week flying by.

真不敢相信下周就八月了。

Can't believe it's August already next week.

所以，这个夏季交易周确实不缺刺激。

So, yeah, no shortage of excitement for for a summer trading week.

那是肯定的。

That's for sure.

是的。

Yeah.

我知道。

I know.

我本来指望夏天能轻松点，但显然完全不是那么回事。

I was hoping for a chill summer, but it's like, definitely not that.

我们马上就会聊到。

We'll get into it.

好的。

Alright.

在开始之前，兄弟，我想快速提一下，今年秋天即将举行的数字资产峰会。

Before we get into it, dude, just wanna do a quick shout out, quick chill here about the Digital Asset Summit conferences coming up this fall.

我们第一次要去亚洲了。

We're going to Asia for the first time.

新加坡，一天的活动，正好和Token 24/89同时举行。

Singapore, one day affair right around token twenty four eighty nine happening at the same time too.

所以整个行业的人都会去那里。

So the whole industry will be there.

对，赶紧买票吧。

But, yeah, get your tickets.

那肯定会很精彩。

That's gonna be a great one.

伦敦的数字资产峰会我们十一月也会再办一次。

Got the Digital Asset Summit as well in London that we're doing once again in November as well.

所以记得留意一下。

So keep an eye out for that.

票应该再过几周就会开售了。

Tickets will be going up in a couple weeks, I believe.

所以一定要早点买，因为跟往常一样，这些票卖得很快，而且价格会随时间上涨。

So make sure you get in early because, yeah, as always, these things sell up pretty quickly and prices go up in time.

所以，赶紧行动起来，买张票吧。

So, yeah, get ahead of yourself and get a ticket.

应该会很好玩。

Should be fun.

那肯定会很开心的，兄弟。

That'll be a good time, man.

应该不错。

Should be good.

太兴奋了。

Stoked.

对，我从来没去过新加坡，所以能去看看挺酷的。

Yeah, I've never been to Singapore, so it'd be cool to see that.

不知道。

Don't know.

我不确定，你去过吗？

I don't if have you?

是的，我去过。

Yeah, I've been.

哦，那地方确实很棒。

Oh, It's a cool place for sure.

对。

Yeah.

那是个很酷的城市。

It's it's a cool city.

真不错，兄弟。

Nice, man.

好的。

Alright.

既然这个说完了，我们不如进入正题吧？

With that out of the way, why don't we get into things?

今天是周四录节目，我想聊聊现在大家热议的话题，新闻里都在说的那个天才少年。

So we're recording Thursday today, and I wanna talk about the the talk of the town, talk of the news right now around the wonder kid.

利奥·利奥·阿什伯纳。

Leo Leo pulled Ashburner.

又一次，伊卡洛斯飞得离太阳太近了。

Once again, Icarus flew a little too close to the sun.

对。

Yeah.

显然，过去几周我们一直在讨论AI交易的回调，现在这股风潮已经开始波及大盘了。

Obviously, we've been talking about the AI trade unwind over the last few weeks here, and it's obviously starting to hit the big dock.

是的。

Yeah.

昨晚开始有消息传出，他似乎在寻求筹集资金。

News started to come out that last night, I believe, he was looking to try to raise capital.

通常来说，如果你主要交易的市场处于下行趋势，而你又在试图筹集资金，那多半不是什么好事。

Typically, you know, if your if your main market that you're trading is in a downtrend and you're trying to raise capital, it's probably not for a good reason.

所以，已经有迹象表明，这情况可能就要来了。

So there's already a, yeah, hints of that coming down the pike.

然后今天早上又爆出消息，说他们基本上不得不清仓了所有公开市场的头寸。

And then this morning came out with news that, yeah, basically, they they had to basically sell off their whole public markets position.

我觉得他们的一些私募投资也卖了，比如Anthropic之类的。

I think some of their private marks too, like Anthropic and everything.

而且，一开始的消息说，买家只有一家。

And, you know, first off, it came out that it was just a single buyer.

结果你猜怎么着，传奇人物本人，肯·格里芬，Citadel的肯尼·格里芬，又进场了，对，在低位抄底了。

And lo and behold, the legend himself, Ken Griffin, Kenny Griffin, Citadel came in and, yeah, bought the lows once again.

老兄，我很好奇你的看法。

Man, I'm curious of your thoughts.

尤其是从市场从业者的角度来看，如果你看到一个主角式的人物出现，比如突然大家都盯着他的13F报告，试图跟单，然后出现洗盘，接着是强制平仓。

Like, especially from the market practitioner aspect, if you see a a main character develop, like, you know, suddenly everybody was tracking his 13 f's and tried to copy trade and, you know, you have that and then you have the washout and then the forced liquidation.

在我看来，这至少算是一个挺有意义的信号。

Feels to me like that's a pretty meaningful signal, at least.

我不知道能不能说市场会怎么走，但显然我们看到，随着那个大买家或大卖家退出市场，今天大家都重新进场了，出现了相当大的轮动，资金又流回了长期科技股之类的。

I don't know if I'd say that we're going to be, you know, obviously we saw the reversion higher as the big buyer slash seller was was taken out of the market and everybody coming back into the trade today, pretty big rotations back into long duration tech and everything.

是的。

Yeah.

这是低点。

It's the low end.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

嗯，宏观条件方面，我们之后会聊美联储和市场环境。

Well, the the macro conditions, which we'll talk about the Fed and environment after this.

但就这个例子来说，我觉得很明显会出现大幅均值回归。

But just as it pertains to this example, I think, obviously, you get a fat mean reversion.

我从周二就开始写，说这波抛售虽然不一定混乱，但量很大、很猛，我一直在从空头那边回补一些仓位。

I had been writing starting Tuesday that the selling had started to get pretty not necessarily disorderly, but high volume pretty aggressive and was covering things up a bit from the short side.

然后昨天早上，我特别惊讶盘面还是那么沉重，因为利率其实稍微降了一点。

Then yesterday I was very surprised in the morning how heavy the tape still was because you had rates sort of lower a little bit.

硫磺期货还在涨。

You had sulfur futures up.

我专门写了，这里面有很多说不通的地方，因为刚刚才出现这种特异的、大规模的股票抛售。

I specifically wrote, There's a lot of things about this that don't make sense because you just had this idiosyncratic, huge selling in equities.

我当时就把它归结为FOMC恐慌。

I just sort of drew it up as FOMC panic.

但利率市场并没有恐慌。

But the rates market wasn't panicking.

你知道，有几个大机构发出了看空信号，其中一个来自Citadel，虽然我觉得可能跟这个没关系，但他们在说可能会加息。

You know, you had a couple of these big calls, one of them from Citadel, which I suppose is unrelated to this, I guess, but saying rate hike could happen.

所以，我想确实有那种氛围，有些人觉得应该在会议前减仓避险。

And so I, I guess there is that vibe that some people thought to to de risk ahead of it.

不过，是啊，我们之前在节目里也聊过，几周甚至几个月前就在讨论，这些因素到底有没有被市场消化，对吧？

But yeah, man, it's you know, we've talked on the show about how much of this, you know, weeks and months ago it was like, is it priced in, right?

比如，这些资产是不是在合理价位交易？

Like, is are these things trading at fair value?

人工智能相关的交易是不是已经完全被市场认可了？

Is the AI trade fully appreciated by the market?

而我总是会指出，半导体资产类别和板块的波动，很大程度上是由那些三倍杠杆的散户ETF驱动的，这些ETF导致股票每天都要重新平衡，波动幅度在4%到7%之间。

And I would always you know, we'd point to the fact that how much of the semiconductor asset class and sector was being driven by these 3x retail ETFs that were causing rebalancing of basically every day the stocks moved four to 7%.

根本不存在1%的涨跌幅，因为如果有，那也会变成3%的涨跌幅，因为整个市场都是杠杆ETF。

There is no 1% day because if there was, it would be a 3% day because the market was all levered ETFs.

所以，当你退一步看，你会想，好吧，这波抛售已经发生了，对吧？

And so when you just take a step back and you're like, All right, that got flushed, right?

资产管理规模缩水了三分之二。

The AUM is cut by two thirds.

还有韩国那边，韩国那帮人搞的杠杆交易，明显是爆仓了。

You have Korea, the Korea degeneracy, that obviously margin call.

上周我们都看到了那些数据。

We all saw those stats last week.

然后还有这个情况，你知道，过去几年最成功的AI投资者之一，他当初成立基金的时候，大概也就几亿美元吧。

And then you have this situation, which you know, one of the most successful AI investors of the past few years who, you know, what he started fund at, like a couple 100,000,000 or something.

对，我记得好像是2.25亿美元。

Yeah, it was like $225,000,000, I think.

然后

And

他把它做到了几十亿。

ran it up to billions.

这些数字都特别大，完全脱离了基本面故事本身。

Like, these are huge, huge numbers that are completely separate from the fundamental story.

对吧？

Right?

比如那个三倍杠杆ETF的资产管理规模，从2530万美元涨到了1000亿美元。

Like the three x levered ETF AUM growing, growing from $25.30 to 100,000,000,000.

还有韩国的保证金交易那些事，就是这些情况。

The Korean margin stuff, this this stuff like.

是的，那确实很脱离现实。

Yeah, that that it's very detached.

但我觉得重要的是要认识到，我们当时是怎么走到那一步的，以及那个完美的叙事、完美的故事。

But what I think is important to recognize is like where we went with all of that stuff and the perfect narrative, the perfect story.

说实话，我很怀疑我们还能回到那个水平，因为那波上涨很大程度上是靠杠杆推动的。

Like, it would be very surprising to me if we got back up to those levels just given how much leverage induced that move.

要花那么多杠杆才能达到那个高度。

It took to get there.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且基本面故事也开始受到质疑，因为SK海力士的财报不及预期，这是整个板块第一次出现明显的业绩下滑。

And there was the the fundamental story too did also start to get into question because SK Hynix had their earnings miss, and is the first meaningful miss of that whole complex.

所以，我也不太确定。

So there was I don't know.

我其实挺相信反身性理论的。

I'm a I'm a fan of reflexivity.

我觉得，SK海力士第一次业绩不及预期，同时系统里的杠杆达到顶峰，再加上我们看到的那些市场博弈，这绝不是巧合。

Like, I don't think it's a coincidence that the same time that you get the first SK Hynix miss is also when you get the max amount of leverage in the system and also, like, you know, the sort of tape warfare that we saw here.

我也不清楚。

Like, I don't know.

上周还有传言说，利奥波德的公司正在四处找买家。

The the rumor mill was swirling that Leopold's firm was shopping around for for buyers as late as last week.

所以，你知道，如果鲨鱼闻到了血腥味，他们就会开始做空这些股票。

So, you know, if if if the sharks smell blood, they're gonna start to short those names.

你明白吗？

You know?

当然，SK海力士确实在基本面出了问题，所以股价被打压也说得通。

Obviously, you did have that fundamental aspect of SK Hynix missing, and it makes sense to see it to beat down.

但我也觉得，与此同时那些大空头在水下蠢蠢欲动、试图做空这些股票，这也不是巧合。

But I also don't think it's a coincidence that at the same time you had you had the sharks swirling in the waters trying to short these things.

而且，你知道，当一个大玩家成了众矢之的，市场总会去试探他的底线。

And, you know, When a big player has a target on their back, the market's always going to test them.

对。

Yeah.

这也进一步印证了那个观点：完全是价格驱动叙事，叙事再驱动价格，而不是反过来。在这种市场下跌、大幅抛售的情况下，大家会编出各种理由来解释，比如AI交易不行了、韩国人不行了、七大科技巨头要削减开支了，什么理由都有。

It also just reinforces the idea that it's totally price that drives narrative that drives price and not Because the other way in a situation like this, as the market's declining and selling off bigly, there's all these things being drummed up as the reason, like the AI trade, the Koreans, the Meg seven is going to slow spending like every possible.

所以每个人都想找出原因。

And so everyone's trying to put their finger on it.

结果后来发现，等等，原来是因为几十亿美元的大玩家在巨额杠杆清算。

Then it comes out that, wait, it was like these huge leverage liquidations on multibillion dollar players.

然后现在大家好像都觉得，哦，原来是这样啊。

And then it's like now it feels like everyone's like, Oh, that's what it was.

谢天谢地。

You know, thank God.

跟基本面一点关系都没有，完全没有。

It has nothing to do with the fundamentals, nothing to do.

好了，我们回来了。

You know, we're back.

所以说，市场就是这么反复无常，两边都一样。

So it's it's just the market can be so flippant in both ways.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得要回到之前的高点，差不多得翻倍才行，比如桑德斯得涨一倍才能回到历史最高点。

I think like 100% to get back, like what, Sandus needs a double to get back to all time highs.

要回到那个位置，之前积累的杠杆可真不少。

Like, that's a lot of leverage that got built up to get back there.

我觉得，再说一遍，自从我们开始讨论这个记忆交易以来，我一直在强调这一点。

I think like, again, I mean, I've been harping on this since we started talking about this memory trade.

比如时间跨度、风险控制、杠杆还是现货，这些都应该在进场前就计划好，清楚自己面对的是什么。

Like, time horizons, risk sizing, leverage or spot, like these are things that you should have preplanned before you get into the trade to know what you're working with.

而且，如果你有一年的时间跨度，那么当一个大玩家像这样被淘汰时，这可能是加仓的好时机，但别指望一周内就能回到历史高点。

And, you know, if you have a year long time horizon, obviously when, you know, a big player gets taken out like this, it's you know, it it might be a good spot to to put some in, but don't expect all time highs in the week.

我不确定会不会出现那种V型反转，直接回到原来的状态。

Like, I don't I don't know if, like, you you'll see that sort of V reversal right back into things.

但可能接下来就是小幅下跌，低波动率的震荡行情。

But, you know, maybe just some low bleeding, like low volatility chop from here on out.

显然，今天出现了均值回归，有些股票涨了20%，这部分已经结束了。

Obviously, you had the mean reversion today, some of these names up 20% and, you know, that part's done.

是的，我觉得接下来可能会在这里震荡一段时间。

And yeah, I could see it, you know, just kinda chopping around for a little bit here.

显然，我们还会遇到一些情况。

Obviously, there's like, we're gonna get into.

这里面涉及太多背景了，包括美联储当时的情况，我们得好好梳理一下。

There's so much context around this from what was going on with the Fed too that we need to to piece apart.

对，没错。

But yeah.

我也不确定。

I don't know.

说到底，还是看你做的是哪个时间周期，以及你具体怎么操作这个交易。

Again, like, it just matters what time horizon you're playing in and and how you actually are express the trade.

路径依赖太重要了。

Like, path dependency is so important.

你明白吗？

You know?

利奥波德的理论，我觉得没什么可质疑的，但他现在之所以被清仓，完全是因为他执行策略的方式出了问题。

Leopold's thesis, like, I I don't know if anything of it is in question, but he's been carried out now just because of the way he implemented that strategy and executed on it.

一年之后，他的判断可能完全正确，甚至超出预期，但他照样会亏钱。

You know, a year's time, he could be proven completely correct and then some, but still lose.

他确实是这样。

He was.

市场很难做。

Markets are hard.

他在很长一段时间里都被证明是非常正确的。

He was proven very extremely correct for a long time.

我是说，这确实不容易，老兄。

I mean, it's tough, man.

我觉得回顾一下最近这些吸引了叙事关注和时代潮流的交易也挺有帮助的。

I think it's also helpful to think back to these recent trades that have captured the narrative attention flows in zeitgeist.

想想金属和白银，甚至之前一段时间的石油，还有去年夏天到去年的加密货币，一旦造成了足够的伤害，消化期可能会相当长。

When you think about the metals and silver, even around oil for a bit there, even crypto last year, last summer, it can be a pretty long period of digestion once there's been enough damage.

如果你处于一个像半导体这类资产在过去几年里那样持续上涨的强劲牛市，那每次下跌都会被买入，每次下跌都会被买入。

If you're in an uptrending aggressive bull market like semis and these assets have been over the course of the past few years, you know, the dips get bought, the dips get bought.

但当你真正伤害并破坏了那个买家基础和反应机制时，我觉得这……

But when you when you really injure and damage that that buyer base and reaction function, I think it

可能会让人心理受创。

can Psyche.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我的意思是，也许最好的办法就是避开这个板块带来的心理创伤，像金属那样，放上六个月。

Can take so I mean, you know, maybe maybe maybe the brain it's best to just avoid the brain damage of the sector and for six months, kind of like metals.

如果你现在买入黄金，而之前从一月开始就把它搁置了六个月，那你的表现会比任何专门做金属交易的人都要好，因为你避开了那些震荡和让人头疼的行情。

If you're stepping into gold now after just shelving it for six months in January, you did better than any metal specific trader because you just avoided chop and you know, headache.

这种思维模式特别好，就是给股票代码设定一个冷却期。

That mental model is so good to, like, have a cool down period on tickers.

我以前也经常犯这个错，比如你在某只股票上赚了一笔，就会突然花更多时间和精力去关注它，试图更频繁地交易它。

Like, I've been plenty guilty of this before, you know, where if you if you make a bunch on a on a certain ticker, suddenly you spend more time attention on that ticker and you try to trade that ticker more often.

反过来也一样，可能你亏了一大笔，就想赶紧把它赚回来。

And then the opposite too, maybe you you lose a bunch and then you wanna make it all back.

然后你就想用同一只股票来挽回损失。

And then you try to do that using that same ticker.

其实不表达观点也没什么问题，对吧。

There's there's nothing wrong with just yeah, you don't need to express a view here.

你可以发个搞笑的推文或表情包，调侃一下Citadel和Leopold的事，然后先放一放，让它自己慢慢消化。

Can make a funny tweet, a funny meme about whatever happened with Citadel and Leopold, and then just side stash that for a little bit and then just let it sort itself out.

你不需要每天都当英雄。

You don't need to be the hero every single day.

你可以去看看别的板块，让它冷静一下。

It's it's you can go look at a different sector, let it cool down.

就像你说的，黄金就是这么回事。

Like to your point, that's exactly what happened with gold.

它涨了一波，然后进入了冷却期。

It had its run and then it had its cool down period.

而且，如果你在这些冷却期里试图抄底，尤其是当你处于弱势的时候，那可真不是个好策略。

And, yeah, if you if you just try to knife catch these things throughout those cool downs especially if you're coming from a place of weakness, it's a tough recipe.

对，完全同意，兄弟。

Yeah, totally, man.

好了，我们来聊聊美联储。

All right, let's talk about the Fed.

这周还有个大新闻。

Other big news this week.

当然，昨天凯文·沃什主持了第二次会议。

Of course, we we had the the second meeting from Kevin Warsh yesterday.

会议前的概率其实相当不确定。

Odds going into there were were pretty uncertain.

这绝对是我们现在所处的美联储新时代的一部分。

Definitely a part of the the new era of the Fed that we're in now.

我觉得会议前，暂停加息的概率大概在60%，加息概率在40%左右，结果确实暂停了，但附带了三次降息，这非常有意思。

I think going in there, odds are around 60% for a pause, 40% or so for a hike, and presented with with a pause, but with three descents, which is super interesting.

而且，你知道，凯文·沃什形容说，他要求来一场激烈的内部争论，结果还真就吵起来了。

And, you know, I think Kevin Warsh characterized it as he asked for a good family fight, and he got one.

所以我觉得这多少是刻意为之。

And so I think it's it's somewhat by design.

不过，我觉得这里有几个不错的观点。

But, yeah, I think there's a couple of good takes here.

这是尼克·蒂米罗斯昨天关于美联储会议的报道里提到的，还有他的看法。

This is just from Nick Timoros' piece on the Fed meeting yesterday and and his take.

另外，他还引用了美国银行的马克·阿巴纳的一些评论，他是一位非常出色的美联储观察人士。

And also from from then there, it looked like he he had a little commentary from Mark Abana, who's a really great Fed watcher from for the Bank of America.

他说，这是一次典型的央行信誉冲击。

And he said, this is a classic central bank credibility shock.

长期国债收益率和股市大约在下午三点同时转向，当时沃什还在讲话。

The long end and stocks turned together roughly 3PM while Warsh was still speaking.

投资者预计未来十二个月内会有近两次加息。

Investors are pricing nearly two increases over the next twelve months.

周三他们听到的是，这位主席是否有意愿落实这些加息，他们现在表示怀疑。

What they heard Wednesday was the chairman whose willingness to deliver them, they now doubt.

而且非常关键的是，这可能是个不错的切入点，但有三件事让投资者感到不安。

And and really importantly, this is might be a good place for us to start here, but there's three things that really unsettle investors.

简单说一下背景。

Like, just a bit of context here.

在最初发布的声明中，你知道，当市场只押注60%的概率会暂停加息时，显然会出现某种程度的 relief rally（缓解性反弹）。

On the initial statement that came out, you know, when the when the market's priced for only 60% odds of a pause, obviously, you're gonna see some sort of a really relief rally.

我们确实看到了。

We saw that.

但随后新闻发布会开始，我听了约瑟夫·王对它的复盘，他说昨天的新闻发布会简直是一场灾难。

But then when the press conference came in, I was listening to Joseph Wang's debrief on it, and he called it a disaster of a press conference yesterday.

不过我觉得，是的，显然我们面临更多的不确定性。

But I think, yeah, there's just obviously, we have a lot more uncertainty.

在这些不确定性中，你知道，甚至有一个问号：我们到底在用哪个通胀指标？

So of that uncertainty, there's, you know, just this question mark of what even inflation gauge are we using?

凯文·沃什被问及此事，以及美联储官方PCE指标依赖什么来衡量通胀，但他表示基本上留有余地，可以超越这个指标，因为他自己的视角更广泛，而且央行的总体战略声明——该声明阐述了如何论证和瞄准通胀目标，每年一月重新发布——可能会发生变化。

Kevin Warsh was asked about it and asked about what inflation measuring relies on from the Fed's official PCE gauge, but said that he left room basically to look beyond it when he said his own lens is broader and that the central bank's overarching strategy statement, which lays out how it argues and targets inflation, which are reissues each January, could change.

显然，你是个债券投资者，却连美联储到底盯着哪个通胀指标都不知道，这肯定会引发相当剧烈的利率波动。

Know, obviously, you're a bond investor and you don't know what inflation gauge the Fed is even trying to focus on, that's gonna cause some pretty meaningful rate volatility.

我们看到30年期国债确实大幅下跌了。

And we saw that the the thirty year bond sold off pretty meaningfully.

还有人问他，如果通胀降不下来，加息是不是唯一的解决办法。

And also asked whether higher rates were the remedy for inflation that won't come down.

他说财富效应可能是解决方案的一部分，但不愿承认这是主要手段，并暗示市场自身的紧缩已经替美联储完成了一部分工作。

He said that wealth could be part of the solution, but wouldn't say whether they're the main one and suggested the market's own tightening had done some of the Fed's work.

所以，是的，这给我们留下了很多需要梳理的东西。

So, yeah, loss for us to to piece apart.

挺有意思的。

Curious.

你对昨天的情况有什么总体看法？

What was your high level take on on yesterday?

对。

Yeah.

我想不起有哪次活动是这样的。

I can't remember an event.

嗯，我记不得有几次，不太是市场导向的，有时是政治性的，我在根本上完全不同意并反对活动后形成的共识。

Well, I can't remember some, less so markets oriented, sometimes political, where I fundamentally diametrically disagree and oppose the consensus coming out of the event.

我觉得沟通显然需要改进，因为如果你读过他的评论、文章，听过他过去几年的新闻发布会、演讲和谈话，你会觉得他在这篇演讲中试图传达的信号非常清晰。

I guess clearly the communication needs some work because if you've read his comments, his writings, listened to his press conferences and his speeches and talks over the last multiple years, You you'd like it was very clear what he was trying to signal throughout this speech.

第一，如果你回头看看你刚发的那篇文章。

One, if you look back at that article you just post.

长期利率上升的原因是他表示想要取消对长期端的资产负债表宽松政策。

He the reason the long end increased was because he said that he wanted to remove balance sheet accommodation for the long end.

他一开始就说，我向委员会和我们的工作组提出的一个核心问题是，美联储的资产负债表为市场和货币政策提供了多少宽松政策。

He said at the outset, he said, a core question I posed to the committee and our task forces is how much accommodation is the long end is Fed's balance sheet providing the market and monetary policy.

显然很多，因为收益率曲线创纪录地平坦，而且去年美联储的资产负债表又开始大规模扩张。

And it's obviously a lot because you have a record flat yield curve, and you've had Fed balance sheet growth that started again massively last year.

当他们扩大资产负债表时，规模翻了一番。

And when they expanded their balance sheet, they doubled it.

疫情期间，他们从未将资产负债表缩减到同等程度。

In COVID, they never unwound it to the same extent.

他们只是加息了。

They just hiked rates.

所以我们一直在讨论，要真正重新平衡货币政策和经济——目前经济极度失衡，只对科技和大型企业有利，而忽视了中小企业、中型企业和消费者——就需要让长期利率反映自由市场价格。

So we've been talking about this for a long time that to properly rebalance monetary policy and therefore the economy, which has been extremely imbalanced and just helpful to tech and large cap corporates over small business and medium and consumers, is you need to let the long end see free market prices.

所以他基本上是在说，他想让资产负债表从国债市场中撤出美联储的足迹，让收益率曲线的长端按公允价值定价。

And so he was basically saying that he wants to let the balance sheet remove the Fed's footprint from the balance, the treasury market and let the long end of the curve price to fair market value.

他刚说完这句话，长期利率就上升了。

And as soon as he said that, the long end yields rose.

而一旦利率上升，一方面会提高贴现率，压低估值，另一方面也会收紧融资条件。

And then when you do that, it restricts one, it's a higher discount rate, so it lowers valuations, but it also restricts financing conditions.

同时，你还看到信用利差扩大了。

And you also saw credit spreads widen.

所以对我来说，基于他所说的内容，市场走势完全合情合理。

So to me, the price action made perfect sense based on what he said.

至于其他那些说法，比如有人说他不想明确表示加息是主要工具，其实不是这样。

And those other things where people said, Well, he didn't want to say that rate hikes are the main tool.

如果让长期利率在没有美联储干预的情况下回到应有的水平，那长期债券收益率可能还要再涨50到75个基点，甚至100个基点。

Well, if they let the long end reprice to where it should be without Fed intervention, that's probably another 50 to 75, maybe 100 basis points higher in the long end of the bond market.

你肯定会看到股市回调，经济增长放缓，通胀也会跟着降下来。

You bet you're going to get a stock market correction, you're going to get lower growth and you're going to get lower inflation.

我觉得很明显，大家一开始都没听懂他的意思，但随着时间的推移，他们会明白的。

I guess clearly everyone just didn't understand him, but I think they will over time.

所以这也许是他沟通方式上需要改进的地方。

So maybe that's feedback for his communication.

但我最大的疑问不在于他昨天说了什么。

But I think that my biggest question is not around what he communicated yesterday.

我认为，根据我们目前掌握的信息，他表达得已经很清楚了。

I think it was very clear about based on everything we know to date.

不过我想质疑的是，当股市距离历史高点只差2%，等权重指数刚创了新高等等，这时候说狠话当然容易。

But where I would just question is like, again, it's easy to talk tough when stocks are 2% off all time highs, the equal age just made new highs, etcetera.

所以到某个时候，我觉得他没法一直这么鹰派。

So at some point, I don't think he'll be able to be this hawkish.

但他从来没排除过加息的可能性。

But I mean, he never ruled out rate hikes.

他只是想表达，但又没明说，他想先用缩表这个工具。

He just was trying to express without saying it that he wants to use the balance sheet tightening tool first.

而且我觉得他说得对，这确实能解决问题。

And I think he's right that that will fix things.

股市的上涨势头已经被压制住了。

It's already caused a dampening in stock market momentum.

信用利差也在扩大。

It's caused credit spreads to widen.

实际利率已经很高了。

Real rates are high.

这会拖慢经济。

This will slow the economy.

百分之百，这肯定会减缓经济。

100%, this will slow the economy.

它会拖慢房地产市场，也会抑制通胀。

It will slow the housing market and it will slow inflation.

这是必须做的。

That's what you have to do.

你得承受痛苦。

You have to take pain.

所以在我看来，他只是在绕圈子，就像想复述鲍威尔2022年8月那场‘会有痛苦’的演讲，但又想说得委婉点，不提‘痛苦’这两个字。

So to me, was just him trying to dance around, like him trying to say Powell's August 2022, there will be pain speech without and try to be a little cuter about it without saying there will be pain.

对。

But Yeah.

我觉得这已经很直白了。

It was pretty straightforward in my view.

我认为围绕这件事，有很多误读和误解。

I think I think there's a lot and a lot of misinterpretation and misunderstanding around it.

感觉这件事也牵扯了很多情绪在里面。

Seemed like there's a lot of emotion around it too.

对，确实有。

Yeah, there was.

大家看起来真的很生气。

People people just seemed really mad.

他们气疯了，兄弟。

They were furious, dude.

我能感觉到。

I could.

我当时就是挺惊讶的。

I was just like I was just surprised.

其实我在我的一些账户里还买了一些东西，因为，天哪，我好久没见过人们这么……

I actually was I actually in some of my accounts bought I just bought some things because, like, man, I have not seen people this.

那感觉就像——我看到一条推文，彭博社的Anna Wong，她是个非常中立、不偏不倚的人。

It was very it was like some I saw a tweet, Anna Wong from Bloomberg, who's like a very, I think, straight and narrow, like down the middle person.

她这个人呢，在政治上既不情绪化，也不会乱来。

Like she's she's not emotional or ridiculous in any political way.

她就是说，这和鲍威尔降息时长端利率上涨时的反应一模一样。

Just like, This is the same exact reaction as when the long end rose when Powell cut.

但愤怒的原因，只是根据你的政治立场不同而已。

But the outrage is just from different based on your political leaning.

对，这真的太奇怪了。

Yeah, it was so weird, man.

我当时就想，哇，我从没见过人们这样……这就像那种事情，一开始就一两个账号在嚷嚷，然后就开始发酵。

I was like, Wow, I've never seen people It was sort of one of those things that just snowballed of one or two accounts were chirping and beaming Yeah.

然后所有人都跟着起哄，因为这样显得很酷。

About And then everybody just piled on because it was the cool thing to say.

但等你刷时间线的时候，大家说的那些话根本就没道理。

But by the time you were reading your timeline, nothing that people were saying made any sense.

真的很诡异。

And it was weird.

确实挺奇怪的。

It was weird.

对。

Yeah.

我也不清楚。

I don't know.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你看，昨天所有波动都集中在两年期国债上。

Mean, like, when you look at so it's just looking at the two thirties, which is where all the action was yesterday.

其实坡度也没那么陡。

It's still, like, not that steep.

当然，之前市场对两年期利率的降息预期一度定价了不少。

I mean, obviously there was quite a bit of cuts priced into the €2 at one point.

所以当这个预期逆转时，自然就看到了明显的曲线平坦化。

So that obviously, you know, when you reverse that, you saw quite a bit of a flattening.

但现在很明显，就像你说的，三十年期国债是昨天波动最大的地方。

But now obviously we've seen, to your point about how the the thirties was where a lot of the action was.

这其实是Lighthouse Macro几周前在节目里展示的一张很好的图表。

This was actually a really good chart from Lighthouse Macro who's on the show a couple weeks ago.

他有些不错的观点。

He has some good stuff.

但仔细分析一下昨天收益率曲线的构成变化，我觉得这是看待这一切的一个很好的方式，因为你可以清楚地看到，是的。

But just piecing about the the compositional changes in the in the curve yesterday, which I think is a really good way to look at all of this because you can see just how yeah.

如果只看名义收益率，我觉得你会错过一些实际动态，因为你可以看到，短端比如两年期或五年期——五年期是这里期限最短的。

If you're just looking at the nominal yields, I think you miss a little bit of the action of what was going on because you can see, like, the the shorter end, the twos or the fives the fives here is the shortest duration on it.

而且你可以看到，影响更多的是TIPS收益率，因此，你知道，通胀预期上升了。

And you can see, like, a lot of what that affected was more so on on on the tips yield, and therefore, you know, higher inflation expectations.

显然，因为加息概率一度达到40%。

Obviously, because, you know, there was partly, you know, 40% odds of a hike coming in.

如果加息没发生，那就会导致短期通胀预期上升。

And if that's not happening, that's gonna lead to to short term higher inflation expectations.

但再看看三十年期国债的久期，情况就完全不同了。

But then you look at the the thirties duration, it's completely different.

你看，实际收益率是上升的。

You know, you saw higher real yields.

而且，也许你可以说，这正是市场开始质疑其可信度的地方。

And, you know, maybe you can make the argument that this is where some of that credibility questioning was brought in.

不过，同样地，我觉得一个合理的看法就是你刚才说的：多年来大家一直在讲，长期利率被人为压低，导致金融环境过于宽松，我们没有一个真正公允的长期贴现率。

But, you know, in the same vein, I think a reasonable way to look at this is what you're saying, which is that, look, like everybody has been saying for years how the long end has been suppressed, that it's leading to looser financial conditions, that we don't have a true fair value long term discount rate.

这其中很大一部分原因就是美联储的资产负债表以及他们一直在做的那些操作。

And a lot of that is because of the balance sheet and and what they've been doing there.

而且，如果现在有风声要取消这些操作，那很多原本支持这个想法的人，昨天反而对发生的事情感到相当不满。

And, you know, if there's if there's talk about removing that, there's a lot of people who would have been supportive of that idea that were actually quite upset about what was going on yesterday.

所以，是的，我确实觉得这有点让人困惑。

So I, yeah, I do find that a bit confusing.

对。

Yeah.

这就像经典的情况，每个人都不想要通胀，都希望美联储鹰派，直到这影响到你那些加了杠杆的资产持有，那时候所有情绪就爆发出来了。

It it was like classic, you know, everybody doesn't want inflation and and wants a hawkish Fed when until it affects, like, your levered, you know, asset holdings that you're you're then that's where all the emotion came out.

这真的很奇怪。

It was just weird.

也许有个合理的批评是：如果你真想这么做，为什么昨天不加息？

Maybe there's this valid criticism that like, Look, if you're really trying to do this, why didn't you hike yesterday?

因为那是不对的，但——

Because that's the wrong But the

对，原因就是——

reason Yeah.

你说吧。

Go.

好。

Yeah.

原因在于，前端利率实际上离正常运作环境下的水平并不远。

The reason for that is because the front end is actually not that far from where it should be in a normal operating environment.

回顾历史，短期利率通常比通胀率高0到50个基点，这是很常见的。

If you look back in history, it's pretty standard that the front end is anywhere from zero to 50 basis points above inflation.

如果你认为当前通胀率在3%到3.5%之间，而短期利率在3.5%到3.75%，那确实可能稍微宽松一点，但其他条件不变的情况下，真正的问题是长期利率太低了。

And if you think inflation is run rating in the three to 3.5 area right now and the front end is 3.5 to 3.75, yes, it might be a little loose, but all else equal, it's the back end that's way too low.

而长期利率低的原因在于美联储——这正是沃什在说的。

And the reason it's low is because the Fed and that's what Warsh is saying.

沃什在说：嘿，各位，听我说。

Warsh is saying, Hey, guys, look.

我们可以加息，因为我们确实想把通胀压下去，但我们不会做得太激进。

We could hike rates because we do really want to get inflation down, But we're not going to just go crazy here.

我们上任才四十天左右，就像他说的那样，我们要从最大的问题入手，也就是收益率曲线的长端，它应该往上走。

We're forty days in or whatever he said, and we're going to start with the biggest problem, which is the long end of the curve, which should go higher.

显然，他本应该把沟通做得更好，因为那些嚷嚷着信誉问题、喊着‘天哪，他控制不住长端了’的人……

And he obviously should have done a much better job communicating because the people that were crying out about credibility and, Oh my God, he's losing the long end.

我敢打赌，他开完那次会议后，下次FOMC会议时一定会说：‘嘿，委员会成员们，我告诉过你们这招会管用的。’

I would bet a lot of money that he walked away from that meeting and will walk into the next FOMC and say, Hey, committee, I told you this would work.

我们收紧了金融条件。

We restricted financial conditions.

那次讲话之后，远期通胀互换和盈亏平衡利率大幅下降，因为实际收益率飙升了，而我们甚至都没加息。

Forward inflation swaps and breakevens are falling precipitously after that speech because real yields cranked higher and we didn't even have to hike.

与此同时，股市下跌了5%，信用利差也在扩大。

Meanwhile, stocks are down 5%, credit spreads are wider.

他想要的一切都在发生。

Everything he said he wanted was happening.

所以我很难因此说，他的信誉全毁了。

So it's very hard for me to take that and say, Wow, his credibility is wrecked.

我当时一直在观察价格走势。

I was watching the price action.

我心里想，哇，这次会议之后，一切都在按他的预期发展。

I was like, Wow, everything's doing exactly what he wants from this meeting.

是的。

Yeah.

可能只是措辞上的问题，他把自己逼到了一个角落里，想维持那种既不说清楚又暗示点什么的沟通风格。

It might just be semantics around this corner he's pinned himself in around this communication style that he's trying to pursue, like not saying anything while also kinda saying things.

对，这方面确实有可以改进的地方。

Like, yeah, there's there's something there about that I I would say could be improved.

你看，从大方向来说，你想实现的很多事情，我是认同的。

Like, look, directionally, lot of the things that you're trying to achieve here, I agree with.

就这一点而言，短期利率不是这里该用的手段，达不到我们想要的效果。

Like, on that point, the short rate is not the lever to pull here to achieve what we need to achieve.

关键在于长期利率。

It's the long end.

得让长期债券收益率继续走高。

It's letting long term bond yields go higher.

这才是需要发生的事。

That's what needs to happen.

只是他们处理的方式可能有点问题，因为他既要假装不给前瞻指引，又得暗示说我们在关注某些方面。

It's just maybe the way they went around that was because he's trying to toe this line of pretending to not give forward guidance while also kind of saying, hey, we're trying to focus here.

我觉得这有点混乱。

I think that's a little messy.

我认为原因在于，你需要投票，需要委员会达成共识和批准才能做出这些改变。

I think the reason for that is because you need it's a you need to vote and you need committee, you know, consensus and approval to make these changes.

他不能直接过来说，明天我们就要对资产负债表做这个操作。

He can't just come in and say, Tomorrow we're going to do this to the balance sheet.

而且我们知道整个委员会，显然鲍威尔还在，他们都坚决支持资产负债表扩张，这在所有干预措施之前是从来没有过的事情。

And we know that the whole committee, obviously Powell's still there, they all are very dead set on balance sheet expansion, which never was a thing pre all these interventions.

所以他基本上是在试图引导市场接受他的观点，而没有得到委员会的批准和授权去直接说，我们就要这么做。

And so he was trying to basically steer the market towards his view without having the approval and sign off of the committee to go there and say, We are going to do this.

但他确实是在试图引导市场朝那个方向走，我觉得。

But he was trying to guide the market towards it, I think.

但他没有完全的能力去明确说那一定会发生。

But he didn't have the full ability to say that was definitively going to happen.

对。

Yeah.

是的，这是我的看法。

It's my Yeah.

或者说，猜测吧。

Guess or

现在也是个奇怪的时期，他想让那些工作组提供方向指引，显然他得先让这个过程展开，才能亮出自己的底牌。

It's this weird period too, where he has these task forces that he wants to let provide the guidance on where to go, and he obviously needs a way for that to play out before he can show his cards.

所以可能也有这方面的因素。

So maybe there's a bit of that too.

你知道，当有些账户——其中一个是经济学家克劳迪娅·萨默什么的——出现时，我就知道会有情绪反应。

You knew there was I knew it an emotional response when there was some accounts, one of them, an economist, Claudia Sommer, whatever.

哦，她可不太高兴。

Oh, was not stoked.

她是耶伦时代美联储最典型的代表。

She's the most classic representation of the Yellen era Fed.

对。

Yeah.