AI放松正在推动历史性市场轮动 | 每周回顾

然后你回去查他的过往记录。

And then you go back and search his history.

他几乎每年都在这么说。

He said that for every year, basically.

他们已经连续六十三个月高于目标了。

They've been sixty three months over Target.

你清醒点吧。

So get a grip, dude.

而且他在2024年还多次反复改变立场。

And also there's ones of him flip flopping in 2024.

这简直是个笑话。

It's just a joke.

但沃勒这件事恰恰说明了前瞻指引的问题所在。

But this Waller thing exemplified why forward guidance is a problem.

结果这条推文下面的评论区全在说：你根本不懂前瞻指引。

And then everybody getting in the comments of this tweet is like, You don't understand forward guidance.

反应机制和前瞻性指引是有区别的。

There's a difference between the reaction function and forward guidance.

我只是把它们都混在一起说了。

I just group it all together.

我明白沟通本身是好事。

I do understand that communication is good.

这本身没什么问题。

It's not bad.

但要是他们基于过时的、回头看的数据来沟通，那就跟点阵图一样会出问题。

But when they communicate based on backward looking way expired data, it goes to the same problem as the dot plots.

根本问题不在前瞻性指引、沟通方式，也不在点阵图。

The root of it is not the Forward Guidance, the Communication, or the dot plots.

真正的问题在于，世界上最有影响力的金融机构，其预测和数据质量糟糕透顶。

The root of it is the fact that the most powerful financial institution in the world has horrific forecasting and data.

市面上有几十家私营机构、模型和数据提供商，能以高得多的准确率做出远超他们的预测，这完全做得到。

There is dozens of private forecasters, models and providers that forecast this stuff a million times better with very high accuracy and it is possible to create.

这正是沃什想表达的意思。

And that's what Warsh is saying.

他说：各位，过去三年我们总在错误的时机转向宽松。

He's saying, Look, guys, the last three years we've pivoted dovish at the top of the exact wrong times.

经济、通胀和增长都已见顶时，反而转向紧缩。

Pivoted hawkish when the economy and inflation and growth were peaking.

这就造成了沟通上的问题，因为你总是在向市场传递错误的信息。

And then that creates a communication problem because you're always communicating to the market the wrong things.

沃勒的演讲，不出所料，推高了两年期利率。

And Waller's speech, lo and behold, topped the two year.

就像伊朗战争爆发前一天，两年期利率低了90个基点，他们还在谈降息——因为他们根本没法提供真正有效的前瞻性指引。

It topped the rates complex in the same way that the day before the Iran war, the two year was 90 bps lower and they were talking about cutting because jobs market they just have no ability to actually provide true forward guidance.

这难道就是问题的根源吗？

Is that the answer

但这才是症结所在吧？

of the beast, though?

这就像是记者报道新闻，谁的点击量最高谁就最吃香。

It's kind of like a reporter that reports on stories is like you get the most amount of clicks.

他们总是告诉记者要唱反调。

Like, they go tell reporters they're always contraindicators.

对吧？

Right?

这其实是整个体制的本性使然。

It it's it's kinda nature the nature of the institution.

引导最具影响力的金融市场。

Guiding the most the most powerful financial

没错。

Yeah.

债券市场才是关键。

The bond market moves.

我对此的疑问是，他说了，好吧。

Like, my my issue with it was that he was saying, okay.

如果明天真发生了，那我七月就去徒步。

If this happens tomorrow, I'm going for a hike in July.

要是债券市场对这个消息无动于衷，等上一阵子再反应，可债券市场会想：这是美联储理事在说话啊。

And, if the bond market stayed flat on that reaction and then waited to react, but the bond market's like, This is a Fed governor talking.

我得马上反应。

I'm gonna react.

所以两年期国债价格就跌了。

So the two year sells off.

具体跌了多少我不记得了，但幅度不小。

I don't know how much it was, but it's a good chunk.

收益率跟着往上冲，创了今年的新高。

Puts in the yield, puts in a new high for the year.

结果后来CPI数据出来了，发现根本没那么热，冷得吓人。

And then the CPI print comes out and it's like, oh, it was actually ice cold.

然后市场立马来了个大反转。

And then we completely reverse.

所以这就像是，好吧，没问题。

So it's like, okay, cool.

本来想压住波动，结果反而让两年期收益率的波动更大了。

Like by trying to stifle volatility, we actually just created more variance in the two year yield.

这到底给我们带来了什么实际好处？

Like, what did that really provide for us?

为什么不干脆等CPI数据出来，再让沃勒发个讲话，说其实没那么糟呢？

Like, why why didn't we just wait until the c prime print came out and then Waller could have a speech and say, oh, it was actually really not that bad at all.

所以我还是坚持主张按兵不动，别老用这种诱饵，反而加剧了波动。

So I'm gonna keep advocating for a hold instead of, like, dangling these carrots and actually increasing volatility.

这整个问题就在这儿。

Like, This is the whole thing.

你越想压制波动，就越把波动推到别处去。

You try to suppress volatility, you just transfer the volatility elsewhere.

关键是，不管什么时候，两年期收益率基本上一直走在美联储前面。

The point is that in all occasions, the two year yield has front run the Fed every single time basically forever.

两年期收益率之所以这样走，不是因为市场在听美联储的表态。

And the two year is not doing that because they're listening off just Fed.

是的，这确实复杂。

Yes, it's involved.

但两年期和短期利率市场的这种反应，是因为市场参与者能解读数据、理解数据、预测数据，并推断这些数据对未来意味着什么。

But the two year and front end rates market is doing that because of participants' ability to read the data, understand the data, forecast the data, and imply what that means going forward.

这就像美联储官员们在争抢关注和存在感。

It's like this vying for attention and relevance for these Fed members.

这完全没必要，也帮不上忙，反而让沃什的观点更明显了——任何在市场中公开表达过观点的人，都应该明白这一点，除了美联储似乎不懂。

It's just not needed and it's not helpful because it makes The other thing that's Warsh's point too, which anybody who's ever shared a view publicly in the markets, except I guess the Fed doesn't understand this.

只要你动用的是别人的钱，把你的观点押在上面，情况就不一样了。

But if you have money at play, you're running out of people's money, you're putting a view on the line.

大家都知道，一旦你被贴上‘鸽派’或‘鹰派’这类标签，就会产生锚定效应。

Everybody knows about the anchoring bias that takes place when you become labeled as doves or hawks or any camp or any view.

作为人，我们天生会抗拒那些可能挑战自己观点、迫使自己改变想法的信息。

You inherently as human beings refuse information that might challenge your opinion and cause you to change your mind.

你得不断与这种倾向抗争，才能保持开放的心态，可又不想轻易改变立场。

And you're constantly fighting that in order to be open minded and you want to stick to your guns.

所以沃什本周在证词中也提到，一旦你给自己贴上标签，就更容易变得偏颇，难以根据新信息调整观点。

And so that's what Warsh also talked about this week in his testimony is saying you become much more biased and unable to pivot and update your views with new information when you anchor yourself.

不，我就是鹰派。

No, I'm the hawk.

通胀是个大问题。

Inflation's a problem.

或者反过来，增长才是问题。

Or on the other side, growth is a problem.

我对其他观点并不开放。

I'm not open minded to things.

一旦你判断错了，就会颜面尽失，而他们每次发言几乎都错得离谱。

Then you have egg on your face if you're wrong, which they're wrong literally every time they talk.

他们真该闭嘴了。

They just need to stop.

很多播客主也会遇到这种情况。

It happens to so many podcasters too.

我们可能会改变主意，但至少思维还灵活。

We might flip flop, but we're intellectually malleable.

你确实得这样。

I mean, you have to be.

半导体股价涨了30%，而不是跌了30%。

Semis were up 30% and not down 30.

7月3号我们最后一期播客，标题是《AI交易见顶》，结果后面全崩了。

July 3, our last podcast, the title was, The AI Trade Peaked and then everything shit the bet.

我得给你们点个赞。

I to give you guys credit.

你们这次真说准了。

You nailed that one.

太棒了。

That's great.

是的。

Yeah.

我确实说过我要试着接住几把刀，也确实去试了。

I did say I was going try to catch some knives, and I did try to catch them.

所以，你看，我又一次在逻辑上保持了一致。

So I was, yeah, once again, intellectually consistent.

不过，昆恩可能比我讲得更到位。

But, yeah, Quinn Quinn probably nailed it better than I did.

我的意思是，上涨的时候我一点都没碰。

I mean, I didn't touch anything on the way up.

所以……

So

是的。

Yeah.

但我确实。

But I yeah.

好的。

Okay.

我得说，我还是稳稳盈利的，毕竟把价格推上去了，最后也基本脱身了。

I'll I'll say I'm still I'm still way in the green because of running it up and managing to mostly get out.

你知道的。

You know

是啊，老兄。

the Yeah, man.

没错。

Mean Yeah.

你们觉得这个怎么样？

What do you guys think of this?

我想听听你们对这个的看法。

I wanted to ask you on this.

每天，日本两年期国债收益率都在缓慢攀升。

So every day, the Japanese two year yield seems to just grind higher.

韩国央行加息了，那边赚钱太容易了，所以才导致了这种情况。

You had the the Bank of Korea raised rates, which caused because there's everyone's making so much money there.

那边通胀挺严重的。

There's inflation over there.

什么时候才会出现一次套利交易的逆转呢？

When is there going to be one of those, like, Carry Trade unwinds?

我其实有点担心，这些失衡太严重了，利率波动和汇市波动却这么低，按理说这种势头一旦反转，可能会引发全球性的动荡。

Because that's what I'm actually a little bit nervous of, where these imbalances are so big and you have rate vol and FX vol so low, you'd expect an unwind of momentum like this to have some global destabilizing things.

可眼下连一点苗头都没有。

And it there's not even a sniff of it.

对。

Mhmm.

收益率都涨得挺高了。

It's like yields are high.

今天房贷利率甚至创了新高。

I mortgage rates even hit like a new high today.

我挺惊讶的，会不会背后有什么政治因素，比如你要是把钱汇回去，我们就威胁要轰炸你。

And I'm surprised that maybe there's a back political thing where it's like, you can't repatriate your money anymore or else we're gonna bomb you.

也许真是这样，但面对这么多失衡和全球范围的追加保证金压力，我反而更担心会有人撑不住崩盘。

That could be it, but I would be a little bit more nervous with all these imbalances and margin calls, global margin calls, that something would unwind there.

你觉得这种情况真的会发生吗？

What are your thoughts on that happening?

我觉得得等到期权到期之后，才能看清哪里会出现裂缝。

I think you have to wait till after options expiration and then you'll see maybe where the cracks arise.

我完全同意。

But I totally agree.

日本那边有个新闻被忽略了，就是他们提到要让大型资产管理公司把资金调回国内。

The Japan situation headline that went under the radar was their talk about getting large asset managers to repatriate capital.

这消息是上周或者前周公布的，结果根本没人注意。

This came out last week or the week before, and it just totally flew under.

结果日元走强，美元兑日元下跌，日本国债收益率也大幅下滑。

It caused the USDJPY to fall as yen strengthened and it caused a massive drop in Japanese yield.

所以政策制定者都不想制造波动。

So nobody in policy wants to create volatility.

他们都想压住波动，但同时也要为自己的利益着想，必须采取行动。

They all want to stifle it, but they also are looking out for their best interests and they have to act.

韩国可能已经为日本央行本月末加息铺好了路，再加上最近这则资本回流的新闻，资金回流日本，日元走强，美元走弱。

So I mean, Korea, Japan, maybe Korea just laid the pavement for the BOJ to hike at the end of this month, and that, in tandem with this recent repatriation headline, flows back into Japan and strengthens the yen, weakens the dollar.

科技圈似乎在暗示，这里头有更大的问题，而纳斯达克会受到最严重的冲击。

Tech's kind of saying there's some bigger problems here at play and that would hit the NASDAQ the hardest.

我完全同意你的看法。

So I totally agree with you.

我现在并不买波动率。

I'm not buying vol here.

我目前只通过期货和现货操作，但说实话，我更愿意做波动率的买家，而不是卖家。

I'm I'm just playing everything via futures and spot, but I would rather be a buyer than a seller of vol for sure.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，也许我们现在才刚刚开始进入这个阶段。

I mean, yeah, you could just make the argument that maybe we're just in the early innings of this.

很明显，最先受到冲击的会是那些杠杆最高的群体。

And, like, obviously, the first thing that's gonna hit is, like, the people most levered.

我觉得这绝非偶然，目前承受最大压力的正是那些每天晚上都被平仓的韩国散户交易者。

I don't think it's a coincidence that, like, most of the pain has been in the Korean retail traders that are just getting liquidated every every night right now.

你再看看隐含相关性的图表，这是三个月的隐含相关性。

I mean, you look again at the at the chart of implied correlation, this is the three month implied correlation.

你会发现，上一次出现这种行情是在2024年夏天，那时候也正好有日元波动的情况。

And you can see, like, the last time we were in this regime was in the summer twenty twenty four, also around the time where there was, like, some yen volatility.

当时随着隐含相关性上升，市场才逐渐稳定，而我们现在还低于10。

And you saw the resolution as implied correlation went higher, we're still sub 10.

所以，也许合理的解释就是，我们才刚刚起步。

So, you know, maybe the argument is just that we're in the early innings of it.

我也感到很意外。

I'm surprised too.

我也不太确定。

Like, I don't know.

就是吧。

It just yeah.

可能是期权到期这类因素造成的，但也许可以说，事情还没完全明朗。

Maybe it's just the off options expiry type of thing, but, yeah, maybe you just make the argument that we just it hasn't fully resolved yet.

我也不太确定。

I don't know.

你得时刻保持警惕。

We need to keep you need to keep your head on a swivel.

一方面，正如你提到的，这个相关性指标的历史参照并不利于风险控制。

One, with this correlation stat that, as you mentioned, the historical analogs aren't aren't good for risk.

另一方面，这些平仓往往接连发生，彼此之间存在某种一致性。

But two, all of these unwinds tend to follow each other and there's some consistency between them.

如果你还记得去年十月，那会儿有文艺复兴基金的事。

If you remember back in October of last year, had the Renaissance.

我觉得他们一周内跌了百分之十到十五。

I think they lost like 10 or 15% in a week.

市场中性策略基金现在面临巨大的动量下滑问题。

There's a big momentum fall issue for the market neutral pods.

然后这种压力又逐渐蔓延到不同的资产类别。

And then they kind of rolled through different complexes.

加密货币遭重创，还有其他好几类资产也一样。

Crypto got nailed, a bunch of different things.

你现在就能看到这种迹象了。

You're kind of seeing that now.

一开始是Meg7，接着轮到半导体，现在又轮到韩国市场。

It started with the Meg7, now it's semis and now Korea.

这些都只是流动性紧张的信号，资本根本不足以支撑所有资产，直到出现大规模的轮动。

And those are all just signs of bad liquidity and there's not enough capital to support everything until you get in these huge rotations.

所以我要提醒你格外小心，因为随时可能触发更大的波动。

So I'd be very careful because there's a lot that could set it off.

往往当发生一件特别疯狂的事，比如韩国这边的情况，所有人都死死盯着它不放。

Oftentimes when there's one crazy thing going on, the Korea situation, everyone's just glued there.

就好像，天哪，房间里这么大一头大象，谁都能看见。

It's like, Oh my God, look at this elephant in the room.

可与此同时，还有另外三头大象你根本没留意——日元、伊朗，还有其他一堆问题。

Meanwhile, there's like three other elephants that you're not thinking about, which is the yen and Iran and all these other things.

所以我觉得真有外溢风险，因为基本面根本撑不住。

And so I think there is real risk of spillover because the underlying internals are just not positive.

当某个东西被推得太高太快，比如半导体、动量交易，所有热门股票一周内就能冒出两倍、三倍杠杆的ETF，就像韩国那样，大家觉得‘我们能搞定’。

And when you get something ran up a pole so hard, like semis, momentum, I mean, all of the levered ETFs, every hot stock now gets a 2x, 3x levered ETF within a week because and again, like Korea, Okay, we're fixing this.

我们加息，我们禁令，一切都能控制。

We're going to hike and we're going ban this.

可你们当初干嘛放任它发展？

You guys let it happen in the first place.

你们怎么能让老百姓整天玩三倍杠杆的投机产品？

Why are you letting your population just day trade triple levered things?

很明显，最后只会落得个惨淡收场。

Obviously, it's going to end in misery.

但话说回来，当这些东西被炒得太高时，可不是简单回调10%就完事了，抄底的人也不会马上进场——实际上，最后这40%的涨幅，大概全是杠杆型散户推上去的。

But yeah, when you get these things ran up the pole, they don't just pull back 10% and the dip buyers come in and no, the last 40% of these moves was probably all levered retail.

所以真正的价值投资者还得再等等，离他们入场还早着呢。

So the value buyers still have a long ways to go before they actually step in.

这通常不是那种普通的调整。

It's not just a routine pullback usually.

我也说不准。

So I don't know.

中期选举前，各方确实有动力维持市场高位，但也有另一种可能：他们心里清楚，咱们今晚就会听到特朗普又在胡说八道选举的事，也许他们干脆认输，把众议院让出去，提前把痛苦都消化掉。

There's also a lot of incentive to try and keep things elevated in the midterms, but there's also a world where they just know they I mean, we'll hear from Trump tonight to see whatever bullshit he's going to spew about elections, but maybe they just concede the House and try to front load the pain.

我觉得不太可能，但接下来几个月肯定够热闹的。

I doubt it, but yeah, it's going be a wild next few months for sure.

我想聊聊这个。

I wanted to talk about this.

这将是最后一个图表了。

This is going to be the last chart in there.

这是第44页。

It's slide 44.

你看到了吗？

You see it?

好的。

Okay.

摩根士丹利的价值指数。

So the Morgan Stanley value index.

我总觉得，价值股已经死了很久很久了。

And part of me keeps going back to, you know, value's been dead for god knows how long.

我在想，是不是因为过去二十年市场结构一直失衡——费用一降再降，佣金一砍再砍，把散户都引到Robinhood上，然后疯狂加杠杆、玩gamma挤压、炒期权。

And I'm just thinking if this is like all these market structure things have been it's been an imbalance of probably twenty years of, like, cutting fees, cutting commissions, getting retail to buy your Robinhood, then yoloing yoloing into, like, leverage, gamma squeezes, options.

也许这次，正是那些长期坚持买价值股的基金经理们等来的转折点——高增长泡沫终于退潮，真正有价值的企业重新回到舞台中央。

And what if this is the end of how it how all that leverage ends is, like, these poor guys, these active managers that have been buying value stocks for years, Finally, like, this is the where all that super high growth unwinds and value businesses come back into play.

然后所有的被动型ETF都在追逐那些被冷落了二十年的股票。

And then you get all the passive, you know, ETFs chasing all these things that have been beaten up for, I don't know, twenty years.

我觉得有点奇怪，你对这个怎么看？

It's like I don't What are what are your thoughts there?

在这个世界里，价值投资真的已经死了吗？

Is value dead in this world?

要是AI和廉价模型继续降价，价值型公司反而能提升利润率，那局面不就反转了吗？

What if if this AI and cheap, you know, models and what if what if the the models get cheaper and cheaper and now value businesses actually can grow margins, and it it switches the game?

我脑子里想的大概就是这些。

That's sort of what I'm thinking about here.

我觉得好像没人真正在讨论这一点，不过——

It's kind of I don't think anyone's really talking about that, but,

是的。

yeah.

我很喜欢这个观点。

I like that a lot.

我的意思是，如果我们真的进入一个知识变得丰富、效率开始逐步显现的阶段，那现在之所以看不到利润增长，是因为最前沿的模型太贵了，根本没法用于实际的智能应用。

I mean, if, yeah, if we're going towards a regime where knowledge is abundant and efficiency actually starts to trickle through, like, right now there's a difficulty in seeing that margin gain because the frontier models are so expensive for, like, actual intelligence.

如果你用便宜一点的模型，它们还是挺废的，动不动就胡编乱造。

And, like, if you use the cheaper models, they're still kinda useless and hallucinate like crazy.

对。

Yeah.

要是真到了那种模型能带来正利润的阶段，你就完全能看到这种效益慢慢渗透到各个领域。

If you get to a world where it's actually, like, margin positive, you could totally see it start to trickle through.

然后你就会想到，类似的情况以前也发生过，比如电信泡沫和互联网初期，那些打基础的公司几乎全倒闭了，但真正赚到钱的，都是在上面建应用的那些人。

And then, I don't know, I mean, you start to bring up the questions of, like, obviously, the analog here is during the telecom boom and everything and, like, the Internet, all the, you know, all the companies that were laying the groundwork all went bankrupt, but then everything that was built on top of it was that's where the value got captured.

是的。

And Mhmm.

这种说法早就被说得烂了。

You know, obviously, that's been talked about ad nauseam.

没必要深挖，但我觉得这确实是个不错的方向。

Don't need to get too deep into it, but I think it's a it's a decent enough a bet.

当然，几周前这主意还靠谱得多，但如果你一直押注动量轮动到价值股，我也不确定。

Obviously, it was a much better bet a couple weeks ago, but if you were, you know, long momentum to rotate in the value, but I don't know.

我之前也多次以为价值轮动要来了，结果却总是落空。

I've also been burned too many times of thinking here comes the value rotation, and then it's just like

就是本地的随机波动。

the local toss.

是的。

Yeah.

你看这张图。

I mean, look at this chart.

我的意思是，如果你拉长到过去二十年来看，情况一直都没变。

It's just like every I mean, if you zoom out to the last twenty years, it's the same thing.

哦，对啊。

Oh, yeah.

我知道。

I know.

我们现在甚至到了像1999年那样的低点。

It's even we're at the lows of two thousand like, 1999.

这挺有意思的，因为看起来像是双重测试——2020年有一次测试，现在又回来测试一次，然后开始往上走了。

Well, this is it's interesting because it almost looks like it like a double, you know, there's the test in 2020, there was a test and then you get the retest now and now it's coming out of here.

如果你放大看这里，可以看一下更长期的图表。

It's kind of, if you zoom out here, can send a longer term chart here.

你注意这个图表，如果把成长股和价值股的比率画出来，它和股市指数的相关性非常高。

The thing that you'll notice about this chart, you were to plot it, it's growth divided by value is extremely correlated to the stock market indices.

你会发现，价值股相对于成长股的大幅反弹，常常伴随着指数的下跌，而这背后也有其他原因，确实很有意思。

So what you'll notice is these big rips in value relative to growth are very often correlated to downward moves in the indices, which is a function too of Yeah, that's awesome.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，还有无数其他指标都显示，我们现在的情绪和疫情前、互联网泡沫时期的投机水平很接近。

I mean, there's a million and two sign like other indicators that say we're near kind of pre COVID and .com levels of speculation.

所以这完全说得通。

So this makes a ton of sense.

而且我觉得，这种高度相关性是因为标普500里头，巨头公司占了百分之四十多，半导体更是高达百分之二百。

And yeah, I think that it's very correlated because of the concentration in the S and P 500 is forty some percent Meg 720% semiconductors.

这根本不能代表真正的实体经济，也就是普通老百姓的生活经济。

Is not representative of a real Main Street kind of real life economy.

现在全都是科技股在撑着。

It's all tech now.

所以当我们讨论供应链各个层面都出问题的时候，这就有问题了。

So that's a problem when we talk about all of these problems plaguing every aspect of the supply chain.

大型云服务商面临现金流压力和资本回报的质疑。

You have Hyperscalers, cash flow problems and return on capital questions.

而半导体和内存厂商呢，利润率高达百分之八十，但接下来肯定会遭遇激烈竞争。

Then you have the semiconductors in memory who are printing 80% margins who you know are going to face severe competition.

我们说这些，已经不只是科技行业的问题了。

We talk about that, it's not just tech anymore.

这个泡沫跟2000年不一样的地方在于，2000年那会儿是个巨大的热潮。

Why this bubble is different than 2000 is in 2000, it was a huge boom.

而当时那种狂热情绪，带点更广泛的投机色彩。

And you had this like maybe a slightly more speculatively widespread made mania.

但这一次，由于这些公司已经壮大到成为指数中的核心成分，这个泡沫在规模和实质上都更大。

But in this instance, the bubble is more material and larger in magnitude because of the concentration that these companies have grown to become as part of the indices.

因此，从某种意义上说，它对整个股市的传染性更强，因为它们的权重实在太高了。

So it's more sort of contagious, if you will, in that way for the broader equity market because of how much they represent.

每个泡沫的表现形式都不一样，但像你提到的成长股和价值股之间的轮动，这些特征往往有相似之处。

So every bubble looks different, but there are some characteristics like this one you point on the growth versus value that tend to rhyme.

对。

Mhmm.

我想最后聊一聊伊朗局势又开始升温了。

I wanna finish off by talking about the Iran situation that's coming up again.

霍尔木兹海峡又封闭了。

Straits close again.

封锁又回来了。

Blockades are back.

炸弹又开始落下了。

Bombs are dropping again.

但他们真的很想谈妥。

They wanna deal so bad, though.

但他们真的想谈妥。

But they wanna deal.

但他们真的想谈妥。

But they wanna deal.

他们想谈妥。

They wanna deal.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

他们想谈妥。

They wanna deal.

但我觉得有必要提一下，这次我们回到这里时，全球原油库存的水平是这样的。

But I think it's worth mentioning that this time around that we're back here, this is where total global oil inventory is going into this round.

而且这次库存真的在下降，我们的原油库存几乎回到了零点附近。

And we're back to almost zero on the straight up form we use in terms of traffic again with inventories actually drawn down this time.

所以我不太清楚这里的计划是什么。

So I don't really know the plan here.

很明显，油价已经比低点高出十美元了。

Obviously, oil's already $10 above the lows.

但如果这种局面再次重现，库存又回到这个水平，那我觉得所有精明的石油分析师都忽略了一点：中国之前已经大量囤积了原油，在那段时间停止了进口，这才让他们在油价波动中得以自保。

But if if this is if we're back to this regime again with inventories where they're at and, like, you know, it seems like the big thing all the smart oil analysts miss was that China had already stockpiled a ton of oil and had stopped importing during that phase, and that sort of kept them safe in terms of, like, oil prices.

不知道这次会不会再发生同样的情况。

Don't know if that's gonna happen again.

但当我一看库存，再看眼下这形势，我真的说不准。

But when I just look at inventories and I look at this, I don't know.

感觉这次的风险要大得多。

It feels like feels like a lot more treacherous.

这次，就在大家都觉得油价不可能涨到两百美元的时候。

This time, right as when everybody's like, I I don't wanna see like, oil's not gonna be like $200.

过去几个月，我已经在这笔交易上栽过跟头了。

I've already been burned on that trade over the last few months.

感觉不太靠谱。

Feels sketchy.

我不清楚你们是怎么看待这个问题的。

I don't know how you guys are thinking about it.

实际上，现在还有充足的储备可以动用。

There's still ample reserves actually to draw down.

我不是说政府该照着这么做，但如果你是个想操控市场的石油主管，想在中期选举前稳住局面，眼下还是有储备可以释放，来支撑市场、压住油价的。

Not saying as a government you should do what they might do, but if you're a pumper in chief looking to manipulate markets and trying to sustain things into midterms, there is still functionally reserves to be drained that would support risk and keep a lid on oil.

不过，这场危机的另一点在于，由于乌克兰对俄罗斯的反击取得成效，情况正变得越来越复杂。

That said, the other thing about this crisis is that it's becoming actually multi pronged because of Ukraine's success against Russia.

他们现在对石油和天然气的炼化、运输和物流设施的打击频率，已经达到了我们在这场持续四年的冲突中从未见过的程度。

They are now hitting refining transportation and logistics for assets for oil and gas at an increasing rate that we have not seen yet in this whole multi year four year conflict.

这已经产生了实际影响，毕竟俄罗斯是全球顶级的成品油、石油和天然气供应国之一。

And that's having real ramifications because obviously Russia is a massive top three supplier of refined products and oil and gas to the rest of the world.

所以像委内瑞拉这样的国家正在增产，其他地区也在一定程度上起到缓冲作用。

So you have things like Venezuela ramping and other parts that are sort of helping to buffer.

我目前没有持有任何石油相关的头寸。

I don't have any positions in oil.

我倾向于认为，特朗普会出手干预，毕竟离中期选举这么近，他不能让局势失控。

I lean towards Trump going to Taco and needing to do something here to not let things get out of control this close in proximity to the midterms.

但我也不确定。

But I don't know.

我的看法是，他现在介入，是因为市场上其他地方已经到处是裂缝了。

I mean, I think he's in the business right now because of all the cracks everywhere else in the market.

我觉得他现在是在刻意制造波动，想借此遏制股市可能的下跌趋势。

I think he's sort of in the business here of manufacturing volatility to try and control the potential weakness coming in stocks.

我这么说是因为，如果你没制造问题，就不可能真正控制住它。

And the reason I say that is you can't control it if you didn't create it.

你知道吗，如果市场因为这个说法、财报表现，还有AI泡沫破裂这些因素而下跌，你是控制不了的。

You know, if the market's selling off because of this narrative and earnings and blow up of AI and all these things, you can't control that.

如果你通过伊朗制造了波动，你会发现你说了一大堆话，可根本没人听。

If you create the volatility via Iran, you notice you keep saying tons of things and no one's listening.

市场根本不在乎。

The market hasn't cared.

这对他来说倒是个麻烦。

It's sort of like a problem for him.

我觉得他这么做，是为了重新点燃市场的波动，然后过几周再把它压下去。

I think this is in a way to kind of drum up that vol again to then suppress it in a couple of weeks.

但看起来，这已经是连续第七天遭到袭击了。

But it does seem like I I think we're on the seventh straight day of attacks.

这明显是一场战争。

It's definitely a war.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我这儿没什么好的见解或交易建议。

I don't have any good insights or trades here.

想想石油，你已经从这波行情里赚到轻松的钱了。

Think oil, you got the easy squeeze money out of it.

是的。

Yeah.

如果非得选一个短期方向，我可能会押注下跌，但这根本不是值得下注的事。

I would probably bet lower if I had to pick in the short term, but it's not something betting on.

对，我觉得这已经

Yeah, I think it's

更像一个政治问题了。

more like a political issue now, it seems.

我的意思是，他们就困在这场战争里，我也说不清到底怎么回事。

I mean, they're just stuck in this, I don't know, like, yeah, in this war.

我的意思是，除非派地面部队去推翻政权，否则根本没法结束这场战争。

I mean, there's no way to end it unless you go You have to have boots on the ground regime change.

这种情况我们已经见过无数次了。

So I don't we've seen that a million times.

不管是面对比伊朗更强还是更弱的对手，你懂吧？

Even against stronger and weaker opponents than Iran, I mean or weaker opponents than Iran, you know?

这事儿就是没完。

It doesn't end.

是的。

Yeah.

我真的搞不懂这一切到底是怎么回事。

This is I I don't know what to make of all that.

第一次的时候，特朗普真是走了一步险棋，但我不知道现在还能不能做到，我原以为他能当这个霸主、掌控全局的人呢。

I think the first time around, Trump really threaded a needle, and I don't know if you can I thought he could play the hegemon, you know, ruler, you know, guy?

但这次我觉得他根本不想干这事，只是被迫无奈才出手，这可不像个有权力的样子。

But this one, I feel like he's kind of does not want this to happen, and he's reluctantly doing it now, which is not a a place of power.

你瞧，JD万斯现在上乔·罗根的节目，说的完全是跟特朗普相反的观点。

I mean, you got JD Vance basically going on Joe Rogan talking, you know, the opposite side of of of Trump now.

这形象可不怎么样。

And, it's not a not a good look.

我觉得这场战争并不受欢迎。

And I just I think it's not a popular war.

我不知道该怎么把这只放出的瓶子再收回去，你只能盯着信用利差，它才会告诉你真实的情况。

And there's I don't know how you put the genie back in this bottle, and you just gotta watch credit spreads because they'll they'll tell you what's really going on.

如果十年期国债收益率继续飙升，这事可能会彻底失控。

And if you get if you get the ten years spiking along, this this could end really badly.

是的。

Yeah.

现在最该做的就是保全资本，躲到波动小的地方去，这是我看法。

It was a now is the time for conservation of capital and be in be in places that are less volatile is is the way I see it.

除非隐含波动率明显下降，否则我建议别轻举妄动。

Until until you get a sign that implied vol is is kinda coming down, I don't think you can play.

如果你想交易，就低吸高抛。

If you wanna trade this thing, you buy the dips, sell the rips.

我敢打赌，一两天内就会来一场猛烈的逼空，现在这种动量行情简直就是典型的熊市表现。

I'm sure we're gonna have a vicious squeeze, which is so bear market in momentum here in, like, a day or two.

是的。

Yeah.

让大家觉得一切都没问题。

Get everyone and get like, everything's fine.

你懂的。

You know?

结果你直接被干趴了，因为Jane Street和Citadel来回猛调Delta值。

And then you just get your face ripped off because Jane Street and Citadel just whip the deltas back and forth.

砰。

Boom.

买卖盘都薄得可怜。

Books are so thin.

对。

Yeah.

然后你就这么听着。

And you just Yeah.

关于JD·万斯这件事，真的很耐人寻味。

It's it's fascinating on on the the JD Vance thing.

基本上，特朗普只要事情还撑得住，就谁的话都听，就是不听贝桑特。

It's basically like Trump listens to everybody but Besant as long as things as long as he can.

可一旦事情搞砸得太厉害，他才不得不听贝桑特的。

And then when he when they all fuck it up too far, then he has to listen to Besant.

等他听了之后，又回头想补救这一堆烂摊子。

And then they revert and try to make up for all this stuff.

但这种事，我一点都不觉得奇怪。

But I wouldn't put it past this situation.

这里面牵扯的是人，还有那起从土耳其传出的暗杀事件，你懂的，这些显然让他们吓坏了。

There's humans involved here and that assassination thing out of Turkey, You know, those have clearly

把他们吓坏了。

freaked them out.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，别觉得任何人不会因为生气就采取报复手段，干掉谁之类的。

And I mean, don't put it past any human to like take out, you know, be pissed and sort of revenge tactic.

一个理智的领导人，不可能干这种事。

Think like a level headed leader wouldn't do that.

他们在他还在土耳其的时候就发动下一次入侵，我一点都不意外。

You also wouldn't think I was shocked when they started their next incursion while he was in Turkey.

我当时就想，这也太疯狂了。

I was like, That's crazy.

人家就在隔壁国家，他居然直接开炸。

He's one country over and he's blowing them up.

我简直不敢相信。

I couldn't believe it.

然后你就看到那些关于换飞机的事了。

And then you saw these things about switching the planes.

现在外面的情况可真复杂。

It's a complicated time out there right now.

我的意思是，确实如此。

I mean, yeah.

在这场迷雾战争中。

In the fog war.

到底是谁？

Who the hell?

是的。

Yeah.

我不清楚。

I don't know.

我能提一下这件事吗？

Can I bring this up?

因为这又是一个典型的代际问题，我们通常都会谈到这个。

Because this is another I mean, we all usually end with, like, a generational thing.

我看了，确实。

And I watched yeah.

有两件事发生了：唐尼妈妈遇到住房问题，后来有位女性发言，直接把驱逐称为‘驱逐的暴力’。

Two things happened, which is mom Donnie had some housing thing, and he he had this woman speak and basically said they called it the violence of eviction.

如果你是那种，你知道的，听我说。

And, like, if you're a you know, listen.

我支持房租合理，让普通人住得起，这些我都认同。

I'm all for, you know, rents being okay for people to live and everything.

但如果你不交房租，我觉得被赶出去也是应该的。

But, like, if you don't if you don't pay your rent, I think you should be evicted.

而且说实话，如果没有这一条，整个系统根本运转不起来。

And I've also like, there's I just don't think the system works if you don't have that.

我一直在想，纽约现在做的这些事，我尽量保持开放心态，唐尼。

And I'm I guess what I'm wondering is, like, everything that New York is doing you know, I try to keep an open mind from him, Donnie.

他就说：‘哎，我也不太清楚。’

He's like, oh, I don't know.

可能吧，你知道的，那时候他们正处在生产率飙升的阶段。

Maybe, like, you know, they were in a productivity boom.

但现在他们却把纽约批得一无是处。

And but now they're just crucifying New York.

这人是在纽约以外长大的，那时候凯西·霍楚尔还禁止建数据中心呢。

This is someone who grew up outside New York where Kathy Hochul put on a data center ban.

所有数据中心都往德克萨斯跑。

All the data centers are going to come to Texas.

德克萨斯的财政盈余，本来是三千亿，现在要涨到五千亿了。

Texas is going to have, instead of the $30,000,000,000 surplus, we're going have a $50,000,000,000 surplus.

然后这些州都在搞这一套一套的。

And then you know, they're doing all these things in these states.

我就想不通，那儿的人怎么活得下去。

And it's like, I just don't know how people survive there.

这简直跟该做的完全相反。

It's almost the opposite of what you should do.

你们觉得这个怎么样？

What do you guys think of this?

我实在想不通，当政治这么分裂的时候，美国怎么还能维持在一起。

I just don't see how America stays together when the politics are so

分裂。

polarized.

只要选对地方，我对房地产非常看好。

I'm unbelievably bullish on real estate in the right places.

人口迁移才是关键。

Am the migration.

新冠疫情就像一个开端。

COVID was like.

如果问我，我觉得新冠疫情其实预示了未来人口流动的趋势，因为。

If you if you ask me, COVID was like training wheels of what the migration flows will look like into the future because.

在你提到的所有这些事情里，作为生意人，你根本没法接受——这本质上就是在取消财产权。

Of what all the things you're pointing out, I mean, as you're as a business owner, you can't you that's basically eliminating property rights.

说驱逐就是暴力，等于在说你其实并不真正拥有那栋公寓楼，他们可以住在那里，还不用付你房租。财产权，至少是美国区别于其他地方最根本的基石之一。

It's saying eviction is violence is saying like, oh, it's not you don't actually own that apartment building, you know, like, you know, they they can live there and they don't have to pay you like Property rights were one of the, if not the most fundamental thing to make in America differentiated in what it is.

这为整个体系奠定了基础。

That lays the groundwork for

那你根本不想知道加拿大这边正在发生什么。

You don't even want to know what's going up here in Canada then.

现在有人在讨论，你对自己拥有的房子到底有没有产权，尤其是建在原住民土地上的情况。

There is discussion on whether you have any property rights at all of houses you own because whether it's on First Nation land.

目前这方面还在反复争论中。

And there's, like, back and forth on that right now.

你家房子下面那块地，你到底有没有所有权？

Like, the house the land that your house is on, do you own that land?

这个问题现在正被广泛讨论。

That is a question that is being discussed right now.

那你还为什么要拥有任何东西呢？

Well, why would you ever own anything?

我的意思是

I mean

所以你才得去买啊。

Well, that's why you that's why you have to buy.

这正是我刚才说的。

That's why that's what I just said.

我的意思是

I mean

这不就是个巨大的骗局吗？

It's just a giant arb, right?

最后只会落得一场空。

Like, end up going.

这其实就是

It's it's

人们为什么要离开英国，横跨大洋去开拓新土地呢？

why people left England and went across the ocean to go settle a new land.

这其实才是世界历史的真相。

That actually is the history of the world.

人一旦和自然融为一体，就很难抽身了。

You get ingrained in nature.

真遗憾，我们长大的那些州，财政问题严重，可他们做的却恰恰相反。

It's sad to say those states that we grew up in, massive fiscal problems, and they're doing the exact opposite things.

你想想，当时情况那么糟，我以为痛苦够了，他们总该被迫改弦更张了吧，可结果呢？

Like, you had you had and I thought the pain would get bad enough where, you know, they would be forced to change where it's like, alright.

我们得减少监管，放开手脚建设，只有经济增长了，才能撑得起这些开销。

We gotta cut regulation and just, like, build because we need growth to pay for this stuff.

但我看这事根本没发生。

And I don't think it's happening.

事实上，情况反而越来越紧了。

In fact, it's like it's actually the vice is getting tighter and tighter.

对。

Mhmm.

能撑住的只有那些资本成本低、不需要花大钱养孩子的婴儿潮一代。

And the only people that can survive it are are kinda like boomers that have a low low cost of capital and don't need, you know, to pay for childcare.

但我真不明白，普通家庭怎么在那儿活下去。

But I don't understand how families survive there.

确实很不错。

I mean Very good.

看你得走了，费利克斯。

Looking at you gotta go, Felix.

我以为你挺难的，我以为你

I thought you had a hard I thought you

时间到了。

had a hard stop.

是的。

I do.

不过我刚看的最后一件事是。

But last thing I was just looking at.

对，我本来是想等你说完的。

Yeah, I was I was stopping for you.

你接着说。

You go.

谢了，兄弟。

Thanks, bro.

最后一件事，我刚注意到，迈阿密现在的气温比纽约和洛杉矶低一度。

Last thing is I was just looking at it's one degree cooler in Miami than New York and L.

啊。

A.

目前两地都是这样。

Right now both.

而且这儿也没发生山火。

And there's no wildfires here.

那里有大海。

There's ocean.

还有很多机会。

There's tons of start.

我的意思是，基于你们提到的这些原因，迟早会变得显而易见，根本不用犹豫。

I mean, there's going to be a point where for all these reasons you guys mentioned, it's just like it just becomes an absolute no brainer.

我的意思是，这事儿就是

I mean, it's it's

你们不是说迈阿密会有飓风，再过二十年就要被海水淹了吗？

a have You hurricanes and, like, isn't Miami just, like, underwater in twenty years?

那都是瞎说。

That's all No.

有一家新公司正在融资，真的。

There's a new company that it raises dude.

二十年前就有人这么说了。

Said that twenty years ago.

是的。

Yeah.

为什么所有这些——

Why would all these-

我真是被加拿大的宣传和恐惧情绪给骗了。

I'm falling for the Canadian propaganda, fear clearly.

他们跟你说这些，然后就会把你的房子收走，兄弟。

They tell you that, then they'd take your home, bro.

他们不希望你

They don't want you to

拥有。对，没错。

own Yeah, yeah, exactly.

这太荒唐了。

It's fucked.

你在这里买房，我们不会打扰你。

You can own a home here and we won't bother you.

甚至会对人开枪

Can even shoot people a

一天到晚。

day.

我想补充一点。

Just want to add.

事情会越来越离谱，直到某天爆发革命。

Things are going to get weirder and weirder and weirder until there's some sort of revolution.

我觉得这基本上就是我们正在走向的结局。

I think that's basically what

我们正朝着这个方向发展。

we're

局面终将发生根本性的转变。

getting to.

局势终将彻底改变。

The ball the ball is going to get transmuted somewhere.

疯狂预算就像骑自行车时的辅助轮，说白了，问题不在他身上。

Mad money is training wheels for like, you know, it's not the it's not him that is.

是钱的问题吗？

Money or what?

疯狂预算。

Mad money.

疯狂妈妈爸爸，老兄。

Mad Mom Daddy, bro.

疯狂曼尼。

Mad Manny.

对。

Yeah.

疯狂麦克斯。

Mad Max.

总之。

Anyways.

但如果你要创业，你会选择在那里起步吗？

But, like, if you're starting a company, would you ever start a company there?

不会。

No.

那里谁在搞创新呢？

Like, who's innovating there?

不会。

No.

这就是原因。

That's why yeah.

所有事都在奥斯汀，兄弟，跟你有关。

Everything's in Austin, dude, with you.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Alright.

我现在得走了。

Now I do have to go.

好的。

Okay.

行吧。

Alright.

那我们

Let's

走吧。

go.

和你们聊天真开心。

Always a pleasure, guys.

挺有意思的。

That was fun.

再见了，各位。

See you, boys.

保重啊。

Have a good one.