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前瞻指引中说的任何内容都不构成买卖任何投资或产品的建议。
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到《前瞻指引》的又一期综述节目。
Welcome back to another roundup edition of Forward Guidance.
在忙碌了几周之后，我们又回到了经典节目形式。
Back to one of the classic episodes after a busy few weeks.
最近我们有一些嘉宾节目加入，非常有趣。
We've had some recent guest episodes join us, which has been a ton of fun.
然后我去了新加坡一周，参加我们的DAS亚洲活动，那段时间非常愉快。
Then I was out across the world for a week for our DAS Asia in Singapore, which was a great time.
我们回来了。
We're back.
市场上有太多值得讨论的话题，所以能在这里做一期简单的回顾节目真是太好了。
There's a ton to talk about in markets, so it's it's good to just have a little bit of a catch up episode here.
奎因，你怎么样，兄弟？
Quinn, what's going on, man?
没什么特别的。
Not much.
我……
I...
说来有趣。
It's funny.
在迈阿密，现在……
In Miami, it's...
天气开始变得非常非常好。
The weather starts to get really, really solid.
九月之后，湿度开始下降，但九月还是每天下雨。
The humidity cracks come come this time after September, and it's like raining every day still in September.
我觉得这是夏天过后充电的好时机。
And I felt it was such a good post summer, you know, recharge the batteries.
而且我觉得这跟市场的活跃度刚好是同步的。
And it kind of coincided with the amount of activity, I think, in the markets.
我上周还写了篇文章，说我觉得从现在到年底，市场会越来越活跃。
And I wrote the other like last week, was like, I think things are going to start start to be more active from here on out in the rest of the year.
对，这周确实忙得不可开交。
And yeah, this week was no no shortage of of things to do.
感觉波动性终于开始回来了，市场又开始让人兴奋了。
It feels like volatility is finally starting to to come off and, get exciting again.
所以确实有很多话题可以聊。
So for sure, lots lots to talk about.
在开始之前，先快速打个广告。
Before we do, quick little shill hit here.
我们两个月内要办第二场会议了，想想都觉得不可思议，我们的活动团队真是太厉害了。
But, we have our second conference in two months, which is kind of insane to think about for our events team is how how crack they are.
我们要在11月10号和11号举办DAS伦敦会议。
But we're we're doing the DAS London, November tenth and eleventh.
我们俩都会去那儿。
We're both gonna be there.
肯定会特别好玩。
It's gonna be a ton of fun.
去年那场特别棒。
Last year's was awesome.
秋天的伦敦真的很美。
You know, London in the fall is just beautiful.
所以肯定会很精彩。
So it's, you know, it's gonna be great.
我们请到了一些很棒的嘉宾和演讲者，可能还会有一堆特别好的周边活动。
We have some great guests, some great speakers coming up, and probably a bunch of really great side events too.
来喝一杯吧，我敢肯定会有很多酒吧在办活动。
You know, come have a come have a a pint at one of the many pubs that I'm sure are gonna be hosting events.
那一定会是一段很棒的时光。
It's it's gonna be a great time.
非常高兴你能来，奎恩。
Stoked to stoked to have you there as well, Quinn.
一定会很棒的。
It's gonna be great.
是的，这次我不会像新加坡那样错过了，可惜了。
Yeah, I won't skip unlike Singapore, unfortunately.
那次实在太远了，但伦敦我已经准备好了。
That was just too far, but I am locked and loaded for London.
我超级兴奋。
I'm super excited.
太好了，是的。
Awesome, yeah.
肯定会有一场很棒的演讲。
Should be a good panel of talks for sure.
是的，我们接下来几周会公布议程。
Yeah, we'll have the agenda up in the next couple weeks here.
我们回头再聊这个。
We'll talk about that.
不过，对，11月10号和11号，记得买票。
But, yeah, November tenth, eleventh, get your ticket.
到时候见。
See you there.
到时候见。
See you there.
好的，Quinn。
Okay, Quinn.
我们到底该从哪儿开始聊呢？
Where the hell do we even start here?
这周通胀数据特别多，我觉得挺关键的，毕竟28号美联储就要开会了。
We had a lot of inflation data this week, which I think is pretty key knowing that we have this Fed meeting coming up on the twenty eighth.
CPI数据挺热的，这确实很有意思。
CPI came in hot, which is certainly interesting.
整体通胀数据很热，核心通胀也上涨了，这显然主要是由能源价格推动的。
Headline hot, also core up, which is obviously, you know, lot of the marginal driver here has been energy prices.
所以看到核心通胀也高于预期，这对通胀预期来说显然不是个好兆头。
So to see that core was also came in hot and above expectations is obviously not a not a great sign for inflation expectations.
不过，不管怎样，今天更甚的是，我们看到的PPI数据也非常热。
However, regardless of this, and even more so today, we got some PPI data that was also really hot.
这两天，债券收益率都大幅上升。
And both days, we saw bond yields rally quite significantly.
有一阵子，看起来美联储越来越可能在十月份加息，但后来这个预期又有所回落。
For a moment there, it looked like it's increasingly likely that the Fed is going to be pricing in a hike for October, but then it's come off the back a little bit.
所以，我首先想搞清楚的是，我该怎么解读今天的情况？
So yeah, first thing I'm trying to figure out personally is how do I read this day?
显然，通胀数据是商业周期中最滞后的指标之一，但看到价格走势与经济数据发布之间的对比，确实很有意思。
Obviously, you know, inflation data is one of the most lagged ones the business cycle, but it's quite fascinating to see the price action compared to this economic data release.
Quinn，我只是好奇你是怎么看的。
Just curious how you're thinking about it, Quinn.
是的，我觉得这周之所以这么有意思、这么好玩，是因为有很多股力量在同时起作用，从通胀数据带来的事件风险，到AI交易这种特殊的主题事件，再加上仓位调整，全都搅在一起。
Yeah, it's I think what's made this week so interesting and fun has been the number of crosscurrents at play, and everything from event risk with the inflation data to idiosyncratic thematic events with the AI trade and then positioning on top of it.
所以一开始，市场上到处都是创纪录的债券空头仓位。
So coming in, you've had weeks of record bond shorts all across the market.
而且这也不奇怪，毕竟这个交易已经连续两个多月让做空债券的人轻松赚钱了。
And why not if that trade has worked for going on two plus straight months of easy money for shorting bonds?
对，这里就有一个很好的例子，能说明那个仓位情况。
Yeah, here's a good one of that positioning.
它已经拉得很满了。
It stretched.
那张图真棒。
That's a great chart.
从图里可以看到，长端收益率先停止上涨，然后收益率曲线开始明显变平，接着短端也入了这波喘息。
So what you could see in the chart is that the long end stopped going up first, and then so the curve flattened, started to flatten pretty substantially, and then the front end you know, kind of joined in the reprieve.
这就为仓位调整铺平了道路。
That set the stage, you know, the positioning.
所以这个交易开始逆势而行，但持仓仍然非常长。
So the trade started to kind of countertrend and the positioning stayed very long.
然后我们看到了火热的通胀数据，市场明显没有准备好，这让我觉得奇怪，因为油价正逼近区间上限。
And then we had burner inflation data, which the market was very clearly offsides for, which was strange to me with oil pressing into the upper bounds of its range.
我们其实已经说了好几个星期，预期会有一个高通胀数据。
We had it and have been speaking on for weeks actually that we expected a hot print.
我们认为下个月可能还会加速。
We think actually next month could be another month of acceleration.
所以这是一个疯狂的震荡组合，市场没有准备好，最初的反应是：天哪，美联储需要更鹰派。
So it was this wild mix of whipsaw where the market was offsides and then, you know, the initial reaction was, Oh my God, the Fed needs to get more hawkish.
但随后AI交易崩盘或出现迹象，又变成：天哪，美联储要变得鹰派了。
But then combined with the AI trade imploding or showing signs of it, you know, then it was, oh my God, the Fed's going to have to get hawkish.
这会打击增长，而AI交易也在崩盘，所以也会打击增长。
That's going to hit growth and the AI trades imploding, so that's going to hit growth.
然后天哪，实际上我们需要避险，那就是债券。
And oh my God, actually, we need a flight to safety, which is then bonds.
然后这就引发了买盘，到了当天，PPI数据火爆得不行，你看着屏幕，收益率却在暴跌。
And then that, you know, sparked the bid that then, you know, clearly into the day, a smoking hot PPI, and you're looking at the screen and yields are, you know, getting decimated lower.
所以我觉得这就是原因。
So I think that's what it was.
我今天其实做空了一些长期国债，算是做个交易。
I actually shorted some of the long end today for a trade.
我可能会持有这一两周，因为我还是觉得经济还行。
You know, I might hold this for a week or two because again, I think that the economy is still okay.
我觉得他们不会让AI交易崩掉的。
I don't think they're going to let the AI trade implode.
他们会确保IPO顺利上市。
I think they're going to make sure and drop it gets out the door on the IPO.
总的来说，我觉得风险还是偏向上的。
I think in fight, you know, all in all, like the risks generally kind of skew still up.
我确实觉得收益率可能已经见顶了，但就短线来说，今天的仓位调整已经非常极端了。
I do think, you know, maybe the the peak is in probably for yields, but for scalp here, I think the the positioning rents got pretty extreme today.
不过，另一个是前端，昨天和今天涨得没那么夸张。
But yeah, it the other one was the sulfur, the front end, which yesterday and today it was up, you know, wasn't as dramatic.
但昨天我大力买入了前端，本来想持有几个月。
But yesterday I bought sulfur pretty hard and I wanted to hold that for like months.
结果收盘前我全抛了，因为几乎一整次加息的幅度都回吐了。
And then I ended up dumping it at the end of the day because the whole wick of like almost a full hike unwound.
这价格波动简直太疯狂了。
It was just insane price action.
债券市场的波动性确实让人震惊。
The the vol in bonds has been quite shocking.
我的看法也差不多。
I I view things very similarly.
我当时……
I was...
我持有一些TLT的看涨期权，本来想持有一段时间。
I had some TLT calls, and I was hoping to hold them for a while.
然后我今天早上醒来，我的期权费翻了一倍，我当时就想，天哪，我真是……
And then I woke up this morning and my premiums had doubled, and I was like, man, I just I got...
因为我的看法非常相似，就是说，好吧。
Because I I I view it very similarly, which is that, okay.
你看。
Look.
我也不确定。
I I don't know.
我觉得长期国债现在挺有投资价值的。
I feel like the long end's at a pretty good value here.
要想继续上涨，你得开始看到数据中出现明显的经济放缓，而这需要很长时间。
For any further rallying, you need to start to see a gross slowdown show up in the data, and that's gonna take a long time.
至于你提到的那个关于Anthropic的观点，我其实不太……
And to your point about, like, the the anthropic thing, like, I I don't...
感觉债券收益率要再往下跌，要么得发生一些非常结构性的变化，要么就得来一场全面的股市崩盘。
It feels like to go any lower here in bond yields, you need something very structural to occur, or you need, like, a all out equity crash.
两者之一。
I mean, one of the two.
而且我就是觉得，我不想赌这个。
And it's just like, I don't really wanna play that bet.
所以我还没有做空债券的交易，但我在长期国债上是持平的，感觉现在事情变化得非常快。
So, I mean, I didn't I didn't short bonds as a trade yet, but I'm I'm flat on on the on the long end, and it just feels like, things things resolve really quickly right now.
市场非常轮动，下跌也很快。
It's super rotational, super quick dip.
就像你说的关于Sofer，昨天看起来十月份是五五开。
Like, to your point about Sofer, yesterday was looking like fifty fifty for October.
现在又回到暂停加息了。
Now we're already back to a hold again.
就像，砰，砰，砰。
It's just like, bing, bang, boom.
嗯，我觉得那其实...
Well, I think that's actually...
我想提一下这个，我觉得这是你心里需要一直记着的一件很重要的事，那就是两周前，两到三周前，十月加息的可能性是70%。
I wanted to touch on that, which I think is a very important thing to be thinking about in the back of your mind, which is two weeks ago, two to three weeks ago, the chance of an October hike was 70%.
我当时觉得那是正确的，因为我的假设是通胀这个月会继续第四个月的加速，而且劳动力和经济数据仍然不错。
And I thought at the time that was that was correct based on my assumption that inflation was going to continue its fourth month of acceleration this month and the labor and economy data is still fine.
而且美联储在上次FOMC会议上显然非常非常鹰派，会议纪要也显示了这一点。
And the Fed obviously was very, very hawkish at the last FOMC and guided towards, you know, the minutes show that.
这个判断一直是对的，直到市场开始波动，然后他们派了四五个不同的美联储官员出来讲话，明确地引导市场不要预期十月加息。
That was correct until the market started wobbling and they sent four to five different Fed speakers out to talk the market explicitly talk the market off of October.
所以你可以把沃什关于前美联储主席允许美联储官员发表指引的言论当作是在作秀。
So you can throw out worse as grandstanding about previous Fed chairs allowance of Fed speaking for guidance.
完全是胡说八道。
Complete bullshit.
就像他，你需要从他身上看到多少次例子才能明白他是个变色龙。
Like he this is, you know, however many, you know, times of the examples you need to see from him that he's a shapeshifter.
而且他某种程度上不得不这样。
And he kind of has to be.
所以，这不是针对个人的，但就是实话实说，我非常反对前瞻性指引，直到我的老板拍我肩膀说，嘿，去帮帮市场吧，把你的那些干将派出去。顺便说一句，那些把市场从加息预期中拉回来的人是威廉姆斯和沃勒，对。
So I it's not like a personal thing, but it's just calling calling a spade a spade, which is, you know, I'm so against forward guidance until my boss taps me and says, Hey, go go help the market here and send out your admirals, which, by the way, the people who talked the market off of rate hikes was Williams, Waller Yeah.
鲍曼和杰斐逊。
Bowman, and Jefferson.
所以，就是那些最亲特朗普的人。
So, like, the most Trump aligned people.
核心人物。
The core.
而且，威廉姆斯也是纽约联储的。
And, like, Williams too being the New York Fed.
就像……
Like, the...
我不知道大家对美联储内部了解多少，但主席、副主席和纽约联储，那就像是核心据点。
I don't know how much people know about this on the Fed, but, like, the the chair, the vice chair in the New York Fed, that's, like, the stronghold.
就像，你……
Like, you...
他们一开口，你就得听。
When when they talk, you listen.
所以当威廉姆斯发表鸽派言论时，尽管他总体上就是鸽派的。
So when when Williams is being dovish, even though he's, you know, he tells dovish in general.
但不管怎样，他消息很灵通。
But, like, regardless, he's tapped in.
他不是那种……
He's not a...
他不是那种不了解形势的、边缘化的美联储主席。
He's not an outlier Fed president who doesn't really know what the pulse is.
他背后一直有私募股权的人，跟他说，嘿。
He's always had the PE guys in his back pocket, you know, saying, hey.
要鸽派一点。
Be dovish.
我们需要我们的持仓涨上去。
We need our bags up.
但我想强调的是……
But the thing I wanted to stress is...
好。
Okay.
所以我们这周迎来了通胀数据，我本来想大力买入利率，因为我预期数据会偏高。
So we go into this inflation print this week, which I wanted to buy rates hard because I was expecting hot.
结果确实如此。
That happened.
但没发生的是十月FOMC会议转向加息。
But what didn't happen is October FOMC flipping.
所以我们进场时，加息概率大概在20%到30%。
So we went in basically 20 to 30% odds of a rate hike.
现在呢，就像你说的，我们出来时加息概率还是30%。
And here we are, like you said, we came out with 30% odds of a rate hike.
所以尽管有两份火热的通胀数据，美联储的讲话，再加上AI融资交易的受挫和市场的波动，这些加在一起，足以让十月的加息预期彻底落空。
So despite two scalding inflation prints, the Fed speak probably combined with the dents in the AI financing trade and and, you know, the hiccup in the markets, that together was enough to take October off the table regardless.
而且我觉得这一点在接下来的几周里非常重要，因为你知道，那是最主要的增长风险，美联储加息会拖累经济，而通胀主要是由能源驱动的。
And I think that's very important here into the next few weeks because what's going to you know, that was the biggest growth risk, the Fed hiking to slowing economy, you know, inflation, you know, being largely energy driven.
如果美联储不打算在这种情况下加息，那十一月就没有会议，所以十一月没有会议，然后我们再看数据。
And if the Fed isn't going to hike into that, then you have November off, so no meeting in November, then we'll see what the data.
从现在到十二月之间有很多数据要公布。
There's a lot of data between now and December.
那我的问题是，接下来真正的威胁是什么？
Then what's kind of the boogeyman is my question.
所以我觉得未来两周非常关键，因为如果有30%……
So I think that's very pivotal for the next two weeks because if there's a 30...
十月加息概率在25%到30%之间，十一月没有会议。
25 to 30% chance of a hike in October, November's off.
十月就不重要了。
October doesn't matter.
就是说，他们说什么都无所谓了。
Like, and who cares what they say?
他们想怎么说就怎么说，风向一变就跟着变。
They say whatever they want, and it changes with the wind.
所以我觉得，从策略上看，这届政府和美联储的前瞻指引，基本上让十月份变得不那么重要了。
So I think very strategically, this administration with the, you know, the Fed speak forward guidance, they've basically made October not really live.
而且我认为，这对风险资产的走势有重要影响，因为在我看来，在当前这个水平上，要出现有意义的崩盘或持续抛售是非常困难的，嗯。
And that that, I think, has important ramifications for path on risk here because it's going to be very hard, in my opinion, for for a meaningful crash or sell off to continue from these levels given Mhmm.
因为美联储基本上按兵不动。
Given the Fed's kinda standing pat.
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我觉得这真的说明了经济现在走钢丝的程度。
I think it really goes to show how much of a tightrope this economy is on.
比如说，是的，总体增长很强劲，但实际上全靠AI这回事。
Like, yes, top line growth is strong, but it's literally just all this AI thing.
比如，如果几周前，我们看到了像刚才那样的债券市场相关性，也就是从加息作为基准情景，回到30%概率不再是基准情景，我会以为你会看到长期国债被抛售，因为你会想，天哪，我们不是在加息。
Like, if you rewind a few weeks ago and if we got this correlations in the bond market like we just saw, which is that, you know, we're going from a from a hike as as the base case back to this 30% odds being no longer the base case, I would have assumed you would have seen the long end sell off because it's like, oh my god, you know, we're not hiking into this.
就像，我们正在失去对通胀的控制，等等等等。
Like, we're losing control of inflation, yada yada yada.
但你看到的是完全相反的情况，即使我们……
But you're seeing the complete opposite where even though we're...
我们现在的基本假设又是暂停加息，但尽管通胀数据火热，长期国债今天还是疯狂上涨。
Our base case is now a pause again, the long end's still rallying like crazy today despite the hot inflation print.
感觉这一切都归结于这个AI的事情。
And it feels like it's because it all comes down to this this AI thing.
因为，经济的结构性力量仍然是……
Because, like, the the structural forces of the economy are still...
虽然说起来有点奇怪，但通胀压力并不大。
It feels weird to say, but not very inflationary.
比如，工资增长仍然不是那么强劲。
Like, wage growth is is still, like, not that strong.
它仍然低于通胀水平。
It's still below inflation.
所以这一切真的都取决于这个AI的事情。
So it all really rests on this AI thing.
然后你就看到了这个Anthropic的消息。
And then you get this anthropic news.
所以我们终于得到了一些……
So we finally got some...
我想是第三季度。
I think it was the q three.
我这里有个图表。
I have chart here somewhere.
所以我们看到第三季度的ARR有所下降，这带来了巨大的连锁反应。
So we got some some q three down the ARR there, which just has huge trickle down effects.
因为他们的ARR虽然还在增长，但增速低于预期，而且增速本身，也就是它的变化率，也在放缓，这对数据中心和核心企业产生了连锁影响。
Because, you know, their ARR is even though it's still increasing, the rate of change is lower than expectations and, you know, the rate of change itself, the derivative of it, is is slowing as well, that has trickled down effects on, you know, the the data centers, the COREs.
我们看到核心债券开始飙升，然后这对半导体和内存等产生了影响，等等。
We've seen the CORE bonds start to blow out, and then that has impact on the semis and and the memory, etcetera, etcetera.
而这就是推动这种顶层经济增长的核心动力。
And that's that's the core flywheel of what is driving this top line economic growth.
其他所有东西都挺糟糕的。
Like, everything else pretty much sucks.
所以我觉得很有意思的是，虽然几周前，如果我们预期暂停加息，长期国债会遭到抛售。
So it's very interesting to me that even though a few weeks ago, we would have seen a moment where if we're pricing in a pause, the long end would sell off.
但今天完全相反，因为市场热议的话题是，唯一支撑这艘船的东西开始出现裂痕了。
We've seen the complete opposite today because the talk of the town is the only thing keeping this ship afloat is showing dents in it.
如果这真的成为现实，那么经济大幅放缓在这里算是最好的情况了。
And, you know, if this really comes to fruition, like, a gross slowdown is kind of the best case scenario here.
嗯，这就是为什么我觉得理解这些细微差别很重要，也许要跳出框架思考，不要对市场发生的事情习以为常，因为我们总是谈论事情的反身性。
Well, that's that's why I think it's important to understand the nuances and think more, you know, maybe outside the box or whatever and not normal about what's going on in the market because we always talk about how reflexive things are.
其中一个反身性就是AI交易火爆，让经济保持热度，而其他一切都不行。
And one of those reflexivity is the AI trade booming, keeping the economy hot hot while everything else isn't.
这是目前市场上债务资本需求的第一大来源，其他所有东西都被挤出去了。
That is the number one source of demand for debt capital in the market right Everything else is crowded out.
所以这种对资本融资的需求推高了利率压力，这本身又加剧了长期国债的问题。
So that demand for capital financing is pushing up pressure on rates, and that itself is adding to the to the problems in the long end.
所以当那个AI交易开始崩的时候，他们获取资本的能力就受限了。
So when when that AI trade starts to crack, their access to capital is inhibited.
因此，与此同时，市场上未来会有多少私人AI相关债务供应的预期，也会同时减少。
Therefore, at the same time, the forward supply expectations of how much private AI related debt that will come to the market, that also gets reduced concurrently.
这样一来，供应减少了，收益率也可能因此下降。
So your supply then comes down and yields can kind of come off as a result of that, too.
所以我觉得这非常……
So I think it's very...
就像我说的，有很多交叉的潮流。
There's, like I said, a lot of crosscurrents.
然后奇怪的是，几乎反直觉的是，当融资市场的利率和债券收益率因为AI交易崩盘而得到缓解时，这实际上对经济的其他部分有帮助，因为它们之前因为高利率而被切断了资本获取的渠道。
Then strangely, almost counterintuitively, when that relief comes to the financing market rates and bond yields as a result of the cracked AI trade, that actually helps the rest of the economy because they've been strangled off from access to capital due to the high rates.
这就是为什么你会看到这些剧烈的轮动，过去两天或者三四天，等权重指数在飙升，而纳斯达克却在暴跌。
That's where you're getting these violent rotations where the last two days or three, four days, whatever, equal weight's been ripping while Nasdaq's been shitting the bed.
所以，是的，就是有很多事情在同时发生。
So it's, yeah, there's just a lot going on.
这些情况看起来不太健康。
These conditions are not that healthy to be seen.
这只能说明流动性低且在减弱，而这种剧烈波动通常预示着更大的事情发生。
You know, it just kind of says liquidity is low and waning and this violence is generally precedes bigger things.
你看，这就是你能看到的小盘股和大盘股之间的剧烈轮动。
I mean, look, this is just the you can see the aggressive rotation between small cap, large cap.
就像，你有太多相互交织的力量，突然之间，随着那些加息到来，小盘股……
Like, you just have so many crosscurrents, and suddenly, you just see as as those rate hikes come in, the small...
这大概还没有更新到最近几天反转的情况。
This is probably not updated since the last couple days of this reversal here.
但是，对，确实让人困惑。
But, like, yeah, it's it's confusing.
不可持续，也不健康。
Not sustainable, not healthy.
这一点是肯定的。
That's for certain.
我不知道。
I don't know.
怎么说呢……
I mean, what's...
你觉得这会怎么发展？
How do you see this playing out here?
就是说，你现在的基准预期还是美联储会放缓加息吗？
Like, are you still base case of a slowdown in the Fed?
比如说，如果他们再加一次息，那是不是就够了？我们是不是可以参考2018年第四季度的情况，那时候加了几次息，然后经济放缓，美联储很快转向，我们就进入了商业周期扩张的下一个阶段？
Like, you know, if if they get one one more hike, say, like, is that enough that we can just, you know, look at a q four twenty eighteen analog and saying that, we got a couple hikes and we saw the slowdown and then they pivoted quickly and we went on to the next phase of the business cycle expansion?
还是你觉得风险比这更大？
Or or do you see it as being riskier than that?
我觉得风险更大。
I think it's riskier.
实际上，我认为不需要再加多少次息，甚至可能根本不用再加，就能引发明年，也就是2027年将要发生的事情。
I mean, I actually don't think there needs to be many more hikes, if at all any, prevent or to instigate what is to come in next year, 2027.
所以我觉得，就像你说的，接下来几周经济数据大体上会撑得住。
So I think, like you said, generally the economic data will hold up for the next few weeks.
而且如果美联储不再进一步收紧，那很难说谁会先出问题，对吧？
And if the Fed isn't further restricting, then it's hard to pinpoint who's to say, right?
如果他们在十月份市场开始动摇的时候，面对极高的通胀数据还能把市场稳住，那市场凭什么会认为他们会在十二月突然变得特别鹰派呢？
If they came in and talked the market off October in the face of extremely hot inflation reports when things started to wobble, why would the market assume that they're going to go crazy, kind of super hawkish into December, too?
那会很奇怪。
It would be strange.
所以我觉得美联储的展望有点影响，但影响不是特别大，因为我认为裂缝已经蔓延到AI交易之外的各个领域，油价没有降下来，而且短期内也不会降。
So I think I think the Fed outlook kind of like it matters a little, but not a ton a ton because I think the cracks are becoming so pervasive outside of the the remit, the AI trade oil prices are not coming down and they are not going to come down for quite some time.
现在天然气也加入了。
You know, now natural gas has joined in.
所有大宗商品都在说通胀会持续一段时间。
All commodities are saying inflation is kind of going to be here for a bit.
所以问题大概是，虽然罗素指数积累了大量的空头头寸，但是否有足够的政策转向或基本面变化来重新点燃这个交易，让小型股和等权重板块突然也大涨？我其实看不到这种情况。
So the question, I guess, is like, yes, there's this huge short position built up in the Russell, but is there enough of a policy pivot or change in underlying conditions to reignite that trade in a meaningful way, you know, where all of a sudden the small cap equal weight parts of the economy are going gangbusters too, I don't really see it.
我更倾向于认为，这是一种缓慢减速的态势，你知道的，增长放缓，最终通胀也会放缓，在这种环境下，寻求缓解是个不错的选择。
I see more of a slowly decelerating kind of you know, slowing growth and eventually slowing inflation environment that, you know, for relief, I think is is a good play.
但这是不是新一轮牛市的重新启动呢？
But, you know, is this a new bull market that's going to be resuming?
我不太这么认为。
I don't really think.
我觉得，进入明年初，我们得面对很多结构性问题。
I think I think there's a lot lot of structural issues to to contend with as we head into early next year.
我觉得不管怎样，感觉收紧已经是板上钉钉的事了。
I mean, I think regardless, it feels like it's baked in the cake that there's some tightening going on.
而且我觉得有意思的是，这种收紧……
And I think what's interesting about that tightening is that it...
就像你说的，美联储手头的工具和他们的职责范围，跟实际需要的相差太远了，而且……
Like, to your point, the tools that the Fed have at their disposal and their remit are just so far removed from what's actually required and act...
而且真正精准的其实是能源价格。
And, you know, that actually has pinpoint accuracy that it's it's energy prices.
你知道吗？
You know?
柴油价格就是那样。
It's diesel prices where they're at.
我认为，目前这对经济来说是一种紧缩。
That's contractionary on the economy at this point, I would make the argument.
长期利率一直在那样走，房贷利率也一直在那样走。
You know, the long end doing what it's been doing, mortgage rates doing what it's been doing.
这些都在对经济产生累积性的影响。
These these are all having a ratcheting impact on the economy.
这其实是你那边，Tim，或者富达那边的一个好图表，它显示金融状况实际上已经开始更明显地收紧。
This is actually a good chart from your end, Tim or from Fidelity who just shows that, you know, financial conditions effectively have started to to ratchet a bit more aggressively here.
我觉得这是看待这个问题的一个好方法……
And I think this is a good way to look at the...
什么……
What's...
接下来一段时间，经济的前瞻性推动力会是什么。
Is the forward looking impulse coming into the economy over the next little while.
我觉得这就是为什么，虽然这些影响正在显现，但要传导到数据上还需要时间。
And I think that's why, like, this is coming, but it takes time to trickle into the data.
所以我不太想持有TLT的看涨期权，在这个过程中白白消耗权利金。
And that's why I'm, like, not really interested in sitting on TLT calls and just getting burned premium while this plays out.
我更愿意等着。
Like, I'd rather I'd rather just wait.
但我觉得现在经济确实在收紧，而且这和美联储加息关系不大。
But it feels to me like there's some genuine tightening happening now in the economy, and very little of it has to do with the Fed hiking.
都是其他因素在起作用，它们开始显现出……
It's it's all these other variables, and they're starting to play its...
显现出影响。
Play a way out.
但大家都在……
But, you know, everybody's...
我们俩确实都太关注美联储和美联储的恐慌了，但真正推动市场的是其他因素，而且这些因素现在非常强劲。
You know, we're we're both guilty of, looking too closely at the Fed and Fed hysteria for sure, but, like, really what's moving the market right now are these other factors, and they're quite powerful right now.
我觉得……
I think the...
这点非常重要，因为十年期国债收益率，即使在债券大涨之后，仍然在5%以上，而且已经持续了一个多月了。
That's a really important point because, you know, the the ten years, even after this huge rally in bonds, ten years above five and has been for, I think, over a month.
两年期和五年期收益率在4.5%和4.7%以上，持续的时间更长，因为主要是前端驱动的。
The two year and five year have been over four and a half, four, seven for for longer than that because, you know, it was really front end driven.
所以信用债，高收益信用利差已经连续几周大幅扩大。
So credit high yield credit spreads have been widening pretty substantially for for weeks on end.
超大规模数据中心和AI交易的信用利差也在扩大。
The hyperscaler and AI trade credit spreads have been widening.
完全正确，这些确实会收紧融资条件。
Totally, totally accurate in that those things do restrict financing conditions.
它们必须如此。
They just have to.
这就是数学上的必然。
That's just the math.
比如，如果建造成本高得多，那自然能建的就少了。
Like if money to build is way more expensive, you then by definition can build less.
这在经济上才划算。
That is economically attractive.
所以我觉得，就像你说的，总是有这些时期，存在相当明显的滞后，可能是一到四个月，而且你总会遇到那个警告信号。
So I think it's just always these periods that, as you said, there's a quite a meaningful lag, could be anywhere from one to four months, and you always get the shot across the bow.
我会把这波行情称为警告信号。
That's what I would call this move.
我觉得这波行情就是那个警告信号，一个明显的警示，表明去杠杆已经相当严重了。
I think this move is the shot across the bow, the warning sign where you've had degrossing pretty meaningfully.
大家都在观望，这到底是怎么回事？
People are kind of looking which way is this?
这是下一轮上涨前的盘整吗？
Is this the consolidation for the next leg up?
这是不是出货？
Is it distribution?
所以在中期选举和美联储会议这些提前预告得很清楚的事件之前，你看到的是去杠杆和去风险。
And so you're getting that degrossing, that de risking in front of some very well telegraphed events with midterms and FOMC.
所以预期这种情况是很正常的。
So it's pretty normal to expect that.
但在这之后，什么会改变呢？
But then on the other side of this, what changes?
收益率会不会因为什么好理由直接跌到4%？
Do yields just plummet to 4% for any good reason?
不会。
No.
信用利差会不会在没有经济重新点火的情况下自然修复？
Do credit spreads just naturally heal without any reignition into the economy?
不会。
No.
石油会神奇地降下来吗？每天有10艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡被击中。
Does oil magically come down with 10 tankers a day getting struck in the straight arm moves?
不会。
No.
我觉得那是在这波短期恐慌之后的事。
I think that's kind of after this short term hysteria.
一两周内，我们从“新云是最新最好的东西”变成现在英伟达出来给Core Weave兜底。
We went from in a week or two, it's like neo clouds are the newest, best thing, then now NVIDIA is coming out to backstop Core Weave.
变化太快了。
Happen so fast.
退一步看。
Just zoom out.
即使这里出现反弹，也别忽视表面之下情况依然不妙，而政策制定者能用的工具也有限。
Even if we get a bounce here, don't lose sight that things are still not not great under the hood, and and the tools to fix them from policymakers only go so far.
我喜欢那个“发令枪响前的警告”的比喻。
I like that analog of a shot across the Bauer starting gun.
比如，当我看到价格走势与数据发布的关联性发生变化，就像我们之前经历的那样……
Like, when I see price action correlation shift from data releases like we had in...
最近几天债券市场的表现，对我来说就像是，好吧。
With bonds last couple of days, that to me is like, okay.
这可能是转折点的开始，但我们已经看到了第一次脉冲，剩下的还需要时间。
This is the start of an inflection point in a little bit, but, you know, we've we've had the first pulse, and the remaining takes some time.
其实有一个债券交易员的观点特别好，我很喜欢那个高效市场炒作的说法。
There's actually a really good take from a bond trader account that I'm a big fan of efficient market hype.
他说，最近债券从低点反弹的感觉，就像2022年10月股市极度恐慌时，CPI数据火热后股市突然大涨一样。
And he was saying that this recent bond rally off lows feels like when stocks were in max fear and ripped off the hot CPI print in October 2022.
这让我觉得很有意思，因为这是类似的情况，只是从股市看多的角度反过来，就是CPI数据火热，但之前已经经历了一堆大幅加息。
And that was really interesting to me because it's it's a similar situation just kind of on the other side of things for bullish equity, which is that hot CPI print just after a shit ton of high rate hikes.
然后突然市场反弹，大家都懵了。
And then suddenly we rally, and everybody's confused.
现在的情况也类似，CPI数据火热，但债券却在上涨。
And this is similar situation where you have, like, the the hot CPI print, but bonds rally.
我觉得我们在这里震荡整理是很合理的。
And I think it makes a lot of sense for us to chop around here.
对，当然我不认为我们很快会看到十年期收益率跌破5%，但确实感觉有点风向变了。
Like, yeah, certainly don't think we're getting a a sub 5% tenure anytime soon, but it does feel like a little bit of a a vibe shift.
不管这是不是由AI交易和建设中的挫折引起的，感觉现在已经开始，你得重新调整你的预期，但也要把握好时机，不要为了等它一夜之间发生而白白消耗溢价。
And whether that was caused by the dents in the AI trade and build out or or what have you, it It does feel like it's starting now and you have to, you know, kind of recalibrate your priors, but also time it and not like burn premium waiting for it to happen overnight.
我在做超长期国债期货，这是……
I'm expressing ultra futures, it's...
你有时间。
You got time.
这将会是一个多日的短线操作。
And this is going to be just a multi day scalp.
但我觉得这是……
But I think it is...
同样引人入胜的是，在过去一周的这场动荡中，坦白说，其实主要就是AI。
What's also fascinating is through all this carnage of the last week, which frankly was really just AI.
有意思的是，罗素指数连续八周下跌，这八周真是连续跌下来的。
Like, it's it's pretty interesting to me how for eight weeks in a row, the Russell is down eight weeks in a row.
地区银行、房地产、餐饮，实体经济里每个行业都被狠狠打击了整整两个月。
Regional banks, housing, restaurants, every single sector in the real economy crucified for two straight months.
而且没人关心。
And no one cares.
根本没人鸟这事儿。
No one gives a shit.
我们一直在聊这个，但每次聊起来，别人就说我们是悲观主义者、是唱衰的。
We've been talking about it, and then when we talk about it, people are like, You're doomers, you're gloomers.
你们干嘛老提这个？
Why are you sticking up?
谁在乎呢？
Who cares?
那是别人，我在乎。
That's people and I care.
然后科技股跌个三四天，就感觉天要塌了。
Then we get three or four days of tech selling and it is just end of the world.
对，这恰恰说明了整个市场和文化上的情绪是什么样的。
Yeah, and that just shows you where where sentiment is broadly and culturally.
我觉得这里面有信号，因为按理说不应该是这样。
And I think there's signals in there because it probably shouldn't be that way.
之所以会这样，都是因为我们之前讨论过的政策和激励措施，但我就是觉得这很有意思。
It is that way because for all the reasons we've discussed policy and incentives, but I find that fascinating.
纳斯达克才跌了4%到5%，我们就在谈救助了。
You know, we're talking bailouts after the Nasdaq's off four or 5%.
我们到底得到了什么？
Like, what have we gotten?
我们是不是太脆弱了？
Like, how soft are we?
就像那句话说的，艰难时期造就强者，强者造就弱者，弱者又造就艰难时期。
Like, you know, Hard times create strong men, strong men create weak men, weak men create hard times kind of thing.
这对我来说真是太好笑了。
That's just funny to me.
你没看到那些散户在推特上哭天喊地，因为他们已经连续八周被套牢，然后再加上这四周的AI行情，就像……
You don't see all the mom and pops crying on Twitter because they've gotten hit for eight weeks, and then the four weeks of the AI, and it's like
世界末日了。
World's over.
那是因为那些All-In播客的AI大佬们都有直接联系到……
That's because the the all in podcast AI conglomerate bros all have a direct line to who...
这就是关键。
I mean, that's the thing.
确实挺糟糕的，但这也正好显示了激励在哪里，你应该尊重这些激励，因为它们非常非常强大。
It's like, it sucks, but, like, it also shows you where the incentives are, and you should probably respect those incentives because they're very, very powerful.
而且，如果那些大人物都在恐慌，他们才是能接触到关键人物的人。
And, like, you know, if if the big dogs are freaking out, like, they're the ones that have the ear of the right people.
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比如说，让我们...
I mean, like, let's...
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我很好奇，作为一个以前……
I'm curious to take as a as a previous...
作为一个搞债务的人。
Of a debt guy.
比如这些Core Web债券，显然情况很糟糕，但还不至于……
Like, these Core Web bonds, it's obviously been quite nasty, but it's not like...
我们还没到那种一夜之间就违约的地步。
We're we're not talking about default overnight type things yet.
虽然一直在飙升，但我很好奇你的看法：这只是在重新定价边际风险，还是更严重的事情？
Like, it's it's it's been surging, but I'm curious, like, your take of, you know, is this just repricing that marginal risk or is this something a bit more significant?
你怎么看？
What's what's your read?
我觉得大家都差不多，我是说，这张图走势很单一，所以如果你按技术面操作，应该会做得不错。
I think everyone is kind of I mean, this chart is one direction, so it looks like if you played this technically, you would be doing well.
但我的观点是，这些公司的组合……
But my view is that the combination of these companies...
有意思的是，全世界现在才在了解比特币矿工，以及他们的生意有多糟糕。
It's funny how the world is learning about Bitcoin miners here and how shit businesses Bitcoin miners are.
就像是，欢迎。
It's like, Welcome.
欢迎。
Welcome.
欢迎来到节目。
Welcome to the show.
我们早就一直在说这些商业模式有多糟糕，但真正的问题在于，它们极其资本密集。
We've been talking about how horrific these business models are for ages, but that's really what what's going on is they're extremely capital intensive.
而且你知道，如果一家公司市值50亿或100亿，却需要同样多的新资本来继续完成项目，那你要么得稀释股权，要么得发债，或者两者都做。
And you know, if you have a company that's worth 5,000,000,000 or 10,000,000,000 and needs that amount of money and new capital to continue to finish your your projects, like you're going to have to have to dilute or you're going to have to issue debt or both.
这就是正在发生的事情。
That's what's going on.
所以在这个阶段，虽然我绝不是这方面的专家，但我觉得，对于Core Weaver或Core Scientific这类质量较高的公司，债务大概率是能还上的，因为跟科技七巨头的市值相比，这些公司简直微不足道。
So it seems at this stage that and I by no means an expert on this stuff, but I would say that my general leaning is the debt on a Core Weaver or a Core Scientific or the higher quality ones is probably money good because companies are minuscule compared to the mag seven market cap.
如果英伟达或任何超大规模企业想给这些公司兜底，那就像你买一杯星巴克一样简单。
I mean, if Nvidia or any hyperscaler wanted to backstop these guys, it would be like you buying a Starbucks.
跟它们的资产负债表和市值相比，这些数字简直微不足道，所以它们完全可以做到。
It's like miniscule numbers compared to balance sheets and their market cap, so they could easily do that.
所以我觉得总有一天会发生这种情况，因为它们显然手里握着这些公司需要的宝贵资产，而超大规模企业可能只是在等它们跌到足够便宜。
So I think at some point that's probably what happens because they're clearly sitting on valuable assets that these guys need and the hyperscalers are probably just waiting for them to get cheap enough.
话虽如此，我可不想当股东。
That said, I wouldn't want to be an equity holder.
现在说这话容易，毕竟它们都深陷困境，所以别光凭这个就做交易。
I mean, easy to say that now when they're all deep in the hole, so don't don't trade off that.
但长期来看，当股东可能不是个好生意。
But like long term, probably not a good business to be equity holder in.
但买那些濒临倒闭的大公司的债务，如果假设这些公司能得到兜底，那很可能稳赚不赔。
But buying the debt on huge going out of business scares is probably money good if assuming these guys get backstopped.
这些公司大多数原本是比特币矿商，后来转型做AI了。
I mean, most all of these companies were Bitcoin miners that pivoted AI.
如果你看看他们所有的历史，他们几乎都以某种方式重组过。
If you check all of their history, they almost all restructured before in some way or the other.
所以在这个商业模式里，这很常见。
So this is very par for the course in this business model.
完全同意。
A 100%.
我觉得在这种情况下，股权和债权的区别非常重要。
I think the distinction between equity and debt is really important in this situation.
我前阵子听了一个Harley Bassman的播客，他也说了类似的话，他说，你看。
I I heard a podcast from Harley Bassman the other week who was saying a similar thing where he's like, look.
AI建设对债权人来说没问题。
Like, the AI build out will be fine for debt holders.
他们会拿回钱，政府会确保这一点。
Like, they will be money good, and the administration will make sure of it.
但那是……
But that's...
这对股权持有者来说毫无意义。
That does not mean anything for the equity holders.
比如，你完全可能看到一种情况，债务，你得明白你在资本结构中的位置。
Like, you you could totally see a situation where the debt the debt, you know, you gotta understand where you are in the capital structure.
如果你只是……
You know, if you're just...
如果你是纯粹的股权投资者，资本结构里有很多人排在你前面。
If you're a pure equity player, there's a lot of people higher up than you in the capital stack.
而且当我们像现在这样进行大规模基础设施建设时，这可能是非常值得考虑的一点。
And, you know, when you have such big infrastructure build outs like we're having right now, it's it's probably a pretty important thing to think about.
所以是的，感觉债务方面有不错的价值，或者至少可以用它作为信号，看看这些事可能会变得多激烈。
So, I mean, yeah, it feels like there's decent value there in in the debt or at least using it as a signal for how spicy these things could get.
但我认为在这里更关注债务而不是股权是正确的。
But I think it's correct to look closer at the debt than the equity here.
对，有趣的是，每个人都说政府兜底是看涨的催化剂。
Yeah, it's funny because everyone talks about government backstop is a bull catalyst.
这有点超出我们的时代了，08年和09年的政府担保并不是很看涨的催化剂。
That's a little bit before our time, the government backstops in 'eight and 'nine were not very bullish catalysts.
如果你以几分钱的价格买入债务，你会赚得盆满钵满，但如果你是股东——但巴菲特确实这么做了。
If you bought the debt for cents on the dollar and you made out like a bandit, but if you're equity holder- But Buffer did.
他进来救援，然后他们被救助，基本上他也被救助了。
He came in and rescued and then they got bailed out and basically he got bailed out.
但如果你是股东，一次又一次地承受回撤，不断被稀释，再被稀释，那么担保和救助并不是做多股票的理由。
But if you are the equity holder taking drawdown after drawdown, getting diluted, getting diluted, backstops and bailouts are not reasons to be long equity.
它们是买入不良债务的理由。
They're reasons to buy distressed debt.
所以我觉得，是的，确保你理解这两者的区别是对的。
So I think, yeah, it's right to make sure you understand those two differences.
你怎么看待间接敞口，如果我们模拟一下事件序列，比如，好，加息几次。
What do you think about like indirect exposure to, you know, if we go through this simulation of like, the sequence of events where it's like, okay, get a couple hikes.
对增长前景有些担忧。
There's some concern about the growth outlook.
突然之间，这些加息预期就被市场消化掉了。
Suddenly, those hikes get priced out.
你知道，也许你是中性的，也许一年后会有降息。
You you know, maybe you're neutral, maybe a cut from a year from now.
我也不确定。
I don't know.
然后还有AI巨头那种兜底的情况，这对债券来说又是好事。
And then you have this whole, like, backstopping situation in the AI conglomerate, which is, again, great for debt.
但股票方面我们真的不太清楚。
We don't really know about equity.
但那些释放出来的信号，我开始想的是，有哪些尾部风险的押注比这个更干净一些？
But those signals that get sent out, you know, what I'm starting to think about is what are the what are the tail end bets that are bit cleaner than that?
是黄金吗？
You know, is it is it gold?
还是说，我不知道，像加密货币和比特币这类东西，纯粹就是押注任何情况，不管怎样都行，就像我们看到斯科特·贝森特和财政部回购那件事一样。
Is it, I don't know, like crypto and Bitcoin and that sort of thing that is just like pure play on, you know, any sort of it doesn't really matter the stuffs like we saw this with with Scott Besson and the treasury buybacks thing.
就是说，不管那些回购的力度有多大，其实都没什么用。
Like, it didn't really matter how powerful those buybacks are gonna be.
而且，显然，事后我们也知道了，他……
And, obviously, we've learned in hindsight that he's...
今天就有一次国债回购，市场给了他400亿，他只拿了60亿。
You know, there's a treasury buyback today where the market offered him 40 bill, and he only took 6.
他现在对花钱这事儿挺抠门的。
Like, he's, you know, he's being pretty stingy with his purse strings right now.
但不管怎样，一开始消息出来的时候，信号都很明确，就是做多黄金，做多比特币。
But regardless, initially, it came out, the signals were all there, and it was, know, long gold, long Bitcoin.
我只是好奇，感觉那些会是更干净的押注，就是那种关联度刚好够，有顺风，但你不用太费劲去调整曲线。
And I'm just curious, like, it feels to me like those would be the cleaner bets is what are these ones where it's, like, just enough of a connection that there's a there's a there's a tailwind, but you don't have to you don't have to mid curve it as much.
所以从最高层面来看，就是那些供应最受限的东西，它们会受益于政府人为把需求推高到自然水平之上。
So at the highest level, it would be the things that are the most supply constrained from supply perspective that benefit from the demand induced from government pushing demand artificially above the otherwise natural place.
所以如果你想想AI交易里的大部分东西，比如超大规模数据中心之类的，政府兜底本来就是来支持它们的，因为相对于需求来说供应太多了，因为融资供应——债务和股权发行——超过了市场的自然需求。
And so if you think about most of the things in the AI trade, which are the hyperscalers and the data centers and these things, like a government backstop is by definition coming in to support them because there's too much supply relative to demand, because the supply of financing share debt and equity issuance is too great for the market's natural demand.
所以那些东西不会……
So those things would not...
除非你在市场恐慌时低价买入，那才是好买点。
I mean, unless if you buy them cheap in capitulations, then those are good buys.
提前买入的话，就不是好买点。
Preemptively, those are not good buys.
当那些公司被救助、获得融资并投入使用时，那些才是值得考虑的地方。
The things that then get that back when those companies then are rescued and get that financing and put it to work, those would be the places I would be thinking about.
所以是电力、大宗商品相关的东西，因为政府要这么做就得大量印钱。
So the power, the commodity related things, because the government to do this is printing significant amounts of money.
所以那些供应更固定的东西，比如电力、能源、资源、原材料，以及需要建设的公司。
So the things that have a more fixed supply, which could be power and energy and resources, input, raw materials, the companies that need to build.
所以我觉得所有这些东西，但那些大牌前沿实验室的名字，可能都不会幸免，因为首先，要等政府救助，你得先看到所有AI相关的东西的远期需求被重新定价下调，这是金融市场和融资活动受损的结果，等等。
So I think all those things, but the big flashy frontier lab names, but they probably all won't be insulated from because first, in order for the backstop to come, you need a rerating lower in the forward demand for all of these AI related things as a result of the impaired financial capital markets and financing activities, etcetera.
所以我不确定有什么是真正安全的。
So I don't know if there's really anything that's safe.
我想大概就是……
Guess I would just...
对，最干净的可能是货币贬值对冲。
Yeah, the cleanest would probably maybe also be then the debasement.
防止货币贬值的那种。
Debasement protection.
但话说回来，对，这交易挺棘手的。
But again, like, yeah, it's it's You dicey saw on the the deal
跟某样东西的相关性。
with the correlation to one thing.
对，我现在的想法就是，我一直在想，现在好像真的没什么安全的地方。
Like, that's kind of where I'm at is like, yeah, I've been thinking a lot about the fact that it doesn't feel like there's a lot of safe places right now.
对我来说，最干净的还是那些货币贬值对冲交易。
The cleanest to me does feel like those debasement trades.
但如果你遇到真正的市场大清洗，我们还没见过那种，到目前为止还只是比较干净的轮动，而且相关性也大多合理。
But, if you if you get a proper washout, which we have not seen yet, like, this has just been still kinda, I would say, clean rotations and, like, mostly logical correlations.
但如果出现一次相关性冲击，比如，是的，如果你做多黄金、做多比特币、做多这些抗贬值的东西，你还是会被打得很惨。
But if you get a correlation to one shock, like, yeah, you're you're still gonna get smoked if you're long gold, long Bitcoin, long these debasement things.
所以问题是，你是等着这一切都尘埃落定，然后再开始部署你的资金呢？
And so it's like, do you either just wait for it all to play out and then, you know, start to to dish out your capital?
还是说你就待在这些资产里，然后试着做点尾部对冲，不管是买债券还是做空一些超大规模科技股，比如那些AI建设相关的股票或者其他股票。
Or do you go and sit in those and maybe just try to tail hedge, whether it's, you know, bonds or just shorting some hyperscalers, like, you know, the AI build out stuff or equities.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我还在琢磨这个。
I'm trying to piece through that.
或者你就直接做多波动率之类的，但总得有个尾部对冲来应对相关性冲击的风险，同时还得知道未来几个月哪里会有超额收益。
Or do you just like, yeah, long vol or something like that, but some sort of tail hedge to match out that risk of a correlation shock, but knowing where the outperformance is gonna be over the next few months?
我觉得，有些时候如果你……事情会进展得很顺利。
I think that, there's windows where things will work well if you...
比如，我之前提到过，罗素指数已经连续下跌八周或者九周了。
Like, for example, I earlier I said the Russell has been down for eight weeks in a row or nine weeks in a row.
就是其中之一。
One of those.
这种情况非常罕见，极其罕见，可能罗素指数历史上只出现过一次。
That's a very rare occurrence, like extremely rare, like maybe one time in the history of the Russell Index.
所以就像我们说的，双速经济中，底层部分已经连续两个月被压制了。
So as we've said, like the two speed economy, the bottom K has been choked for two months straight.
很大程度上是超大规模企业发债带来的融资条件收紧直接导致的。
A big part is a direct result of the restrictive financing conditions brought on by the supply of debt capital coming to the market from hyperscalers.
现在这种情况有所缓解，你会看到那些板块有所表现。
That now is dampened and you're seeing those sectors.
如果你今天去看，所有上涨的板块，比如房地产、实体经济相关的东西、等权重指数，那些都是上涨的。
If you go look at watch this today, every sector that's green, housing, I mean, like real economy stuff, equal weight, like all those things that are green.
这里有一个窗口期，因为那些板块已经被抛售了两个月。
There's a window here where they've already been sold off for two months.
所以如果你要卖那些东西，可能不会在它们已经跌了20%、30%、40%，而且可能即将迎来反弹的时候卖。
So if you were going to sell those things, it's probably not going be after they're already down 20, 30, 40% and possibly at the precipice of some relief.
所以我觉得这里有个窗口期，你可以做这些交易，比如，如果我做多房地产股或者其他实体经济股票，AI交易对我来说无关紧要，除非AI交易崩了、利率下降，那反而可能帮到我。
So I think there's a window where you can play those trades where it's like, look, if I'm long a housing stock or some other real economy stock, the AI trades irrelevant other than possibly possibly helping if the AI trade blows up and rates fall.
那对这几个板块是有刺激作用的。
That's that's stimulative for for these sectors.
问题在于，除了这种交易，我们说的可能也就管用几个星期什么的。
The problem is like outside of a trade for, you know, we're talking like that might work for a couple of weeks or whatever.
但再过几个月，你就会想，好吧，这些股票已经反弹回来了。
But then you get into like a couple of months out and you're like, Okay, this stuff's rallied back.
AI那边已经接住飞刀了。
You know, knife's been caught in the AI.
但然后你又会想起来，哦等等，我们还在印5%的赤字呢。
But then you remember you're like, Oh, wait, we're still printing 5% deficits.
整个经济都靠AI撑着。
The whole economy is AI.
没有它，我们的增长率可能只有每年1%。
Without it, we'd be growing at like 1% a year.
实际工资已经连续七个月为负了。
Real wage has been negative for seven straight months.
底层一半的人，日子过得紧巴巴的。
Like the bottom half of the case, like strangled.
等等，其实经济并不好，实际增长前景也没那么好。
Wait, it's actually not a good economy and the actual real growth outlook isn't that good.
那你真的还想持有股票吗？
So do you really want to own any equities?
所以我觉得，你得在这些轮动窗口里好好琢磨琢磨。
So I think that's what you have to you have to bat around is in these windows of rotation.
我觉得抓住这些机会能赚不少钱，但心里也得清楚，短期可能不错。
I think there's a lot of money to be made playing them, but then also keeping in the back of your mind that it could be good in the short term.
但如果AI交易崩了，你知道的，经济很大程度上靠前10%的人拥有所有资产带来的财富效应，他们的消费占了总消费的一半以上。
But if the AI trade goes, then there's you know, we know how much the economy is driven by the wealth effect of, you know, the top 10% owning, you know, all the assets and their their spending driving over 50% of consumer spending.
所以，整个市场真的会暴露出它对这一整个支撑经济和财富的交易的依赖。
And so you can really be, the broader market can really show its exposure to the to this one whole entire trade that's propping up activity in the economy plus wealth.
所以其实离我们真正看到政策制定者出手，然后以任何形式大规模印钞、兜底救市，还有很远的距离。
So it's not like we're very far from sort of like any seeing the whites of the policymakers' eyes and coming in here and being able to, in any shape or form, materially print and backstop their way out of this.
我们离那一步还有好几个月呢。
We're many months away from that.
到时候肯定会来的，就像往常一样。
It'd have to get a lot It will come like it always does.
但在这种情况下，最大的错误总是以为它会来得快得多。
But, you know, that that the biggest mistake in these cases is always assuming it's going to be way much quicker.
什么，对，那个核心债券的到期收益率得达到多少，才会……而且我觉得还有一点，就是当我们讨论这种曲线形态的时候，比如在周期中最后一次加息的时候，大家经常讨论的一个问题是，在我们这样一个负债累累、而且高度偏向短期国债之类的经济体中，加息的影响到底是怎么传导到经济里的。
What, yeah, like what yield to maturity does that core bond have to get to before And that it's like, well, see, I think the other thing too, that's, you know, when you're talking about just this case shape thing, like whenever we get the last rates hikes in the cycle, this was something that got talked a lot about, which was just how does the impact of rate hikes actually impact the economy when we have such an indebted economy that is so tilted towards, like, t bills and that sort of thing.
我等这个图表等了好久了，Prometheus的Ahan终于做出来了。
I've been waiting for this chart for a long time to be made and, Ahan from Prometheus finally made it.
但这里有个关于MMP的争论，对吧，就是说，如果所有长期债务都锁定在低得多的收益率上，而且不需要再融资，比如你有个三十年房贷之类的，那加息实际上是不是对经济有刺激作用，其实无所谓。
But, you know, there's this whole like MMP debate thing, right, about like, are rate hikes actually stimulative to the economy if all this long term debt is fixed at much lower yields and doesn't have to be refinanced because you're in a thirty year mortgage or whatever, it doesn't really matter.
而且如果你处于收入顶层，你的货币市场基金实际上在赚更多的钱。
And then you're also, you know, in the top end of the case so that all your money market fund, you're actually just making more money.
我只是觉得终于能以图表的形式看到这个挺酷的，就是看每100个基点的加息或降息对NGDP百分比的影响。
I just thought it was cool to finally see this in in a in a chart format looking at, like, what does that change of a percentage of NGDP per 100 bips of of rate hikes or cuts or whatever.
你可以看到，自从债务开始膨胀，自从财政赤字达到5%以上成为常态，加息的影响就没那么强了。
And you can see, like, ever since death started to blow out, ever since, you know, a fiscal deficit of 5% and above became a normal thing, the the bite that a rate hike has is not nearly as strong anymore.
你可以说，大部分……
Like, you could make the argument that most of the...
你在经济或市场中看到的，尤其是像九月加息时的那种情况，大部分都是情绪。
Most of what you see in the economy or in markets, especially when a rate hike happens, like in September is vibes.
实际上，从机制上讲，它反而会导致整体净收入增加，我觉得这一点很重要，因为这关系到我们说的，如果大部分需要发生的或正在发生的金融约束收紧或放松，都不在美联储政策制定者的掌控范围内。
Like in reality, mechanically, you know, it actually leads to higher net incomes overall, which I think is a really important point because it gets to the matter of what we're saying that like, okay, if you have most of what needs to happen or is happening in terms of tightening or loosening of financial constraints are outside the purview of Fed policymakers for the most part.
而他们唯一有的工具，我不想说没用，但确实像这张图显示的，效果被削弱了。
And then the one tool that they do have is this kind of, I don't want to say useless, but like it's certainly dampened as we can see in this chart.
我不知道，这有点让……
I don't know, it kind of makes for...
是的，宏观本来就让人困惑，再加上这个，就更让人摸不着头脑了。
Even like, yes, macro is confusing, but let's add on this and it becomes even more confusing.
就是，这简直……
Like, it's just...
兄弟，我……
Dude, I'd...
这太难了，老兄。
It's hard, man.
不过，我个人不同意这个看法。
See, I don't agree with that notion personally.
我觉得它确实有净紧缩效应，但被其他一大堆干预措施掩盖了。
Think that it does have net tightening, but I think it's obfuscated by all of the other bajillion intervention measures they're doing.
对，如果我和你同意你说的，比如加息25个基点，那好吧，无所谓。
Yeah, if you and I agree with you saying like a 25 bips hike, like, Okay, whatever.
这能有多大作用呢？
Like, does that do much?
不，没什么用。
No, it doesn't.
如果你就此打住，那就完了，不，不会有什么效果。
If you stop there and it's done, no, it doesn't.
但如果你只加息25个基点，那真的起不了什么作用。
But it's really not going to do anything if you do a 25 basis points hike.
每两周干预一次来削弱货币，隔天干预一次来压低债券收益率，还有其他各种措施，直接干预期货市场来操纵价格。
Intervene once every two weeks to weaken the currency, intervene every other day to suppress bond yields, all this other stuff, intervene directly in futures markets to manipulate prices.
这些才是导致它不起作用的原因。
These are the things that are the reasons it's not.
它真正做的，我们之前也聊过很多次，就是导致资本账户失衡和经济失衡。
What it really does, and we've talked about this forever, is imbalancing of the K and the imbalancing of the economy.
就拿我们刚才说的“七巨头”来说，你看它们的图表，你会想，这玩意儿怎么会跌成这样？
For what we just said, mag seven, you look at the mag seven chart and you're like, what sell off like this thing?
哦，日线趋势才跌了1%，就这样，大家就都慌了。
Oh, it's down 1% in the daily trend, like whatever, and everyone's freaking out.
你会觉得好像发生了什么疯狂的事情。
You'd be thinking that there's something crazy happening.
与此同时，实体经济正在遭受重创。
Meanwhile, the real economy is getting crushed.
但有趣的是，这些波动、动荡和噪音的时期，还有那种“天哪，这是新情况，我简直不敢相信，深呼吸，退一步看”的感觉。
But it's funny, too, how these these these periods of volatility and turbulence and noise and oh my God, and this is new and I can't believe this and, you know, deep breaths, zoom out.
记住，在过去几年里，尤其是在2022年之后，我们经历过很多次这种极端的板块轮动市场。
And remember, many times in the last couple of years since we've been in this environment, really post 2022, many, many times we've had these extreme rotational markets.
我记得那些持续数周的时期，就像……
I mean, I remember these multi week stretch stretches where it's like.
罗素指数上涨，纳斯达克下跌；纳斯达克上涨，罗素指数下跌。
Russell up, NASDAQ down, NASDAQ up, Russell down.
就像这样反复拉伸橡皮筋，拉伸，拉伸，最终……
And it's just this like stretch the band, stretch the band, stretch the band, and eventually it so.
它们很奇怪。
They're weird.
它们确实很奇怪，不符合教科书里的常态，但就我们过去几年的经历而言，它们并不算太奇怪。
They're really weird and not normal for what you read in a textbook, but for what we've experienced over the last few years, they're not that weird.
关于债券，我还想说的是，我一直在思考的一个问题是——
And the other thing that I would just say about the bond thing that I've been sort of thinking about is.
每次这种‘债券是安全避风港’的说法重新出现时，我总是……
Every time this narrative of bonds being a very sound flight to safety comes back, I'm always...
没法……
Can't...
把它当作——
As being
就像，永久的‘抛售’只持续两天，然后就会出现那种‘天哪，我们是不是又回到60/40了’的感觉。
It's like, perpetual pawn balls get two days, and then there's this like, Oh my God, we're like sixtyforty.
我们回来了。
We're so back.
两周前，大家还在说‘趁热打铁’。
It was two weeks ago that everyone's like, Run it hot.
贝森特要出手干预了。
Bessence is going to intervene.
通胀要来了……
Inflation's going...
然后现在又变成债券是下一个“科技七巨头”交易了。
And then now it's like bonds are the next mag seven trade.
而且不久之前，很多市场下跌的时候，债券和股市是正相关的，收益率上升，股市下跌，美元也跌。
It's also not that long ago that many of the market declines coincided with positive correlation to bonds where yields up, stocks down, dollar down.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得没有任何相关性是永远安全或者永远不变的，因为这里面有很多很多很多都是仓位的问题，很多都是。
I don't think any correlation is assumed to be safe or assumed to stick in perpetuity because a lot, a lot, a lot of stuff here is positioning a lot of it.
而且这些仓位可能很快就被清掉，也可能很快反转。
And that can get unwound fast and it can it can revert.
它可能会来回震荡。
It can zigzag back and forth.
不要把一两天仓位的洗盘误认为是……
Don't confuse one or two day positioning rinses with.
话虽如此，我大体上认为收益率周期性的顶部已经出现了，我大体上是这么觉得的。
That said, I generally think the top and yield cyclically is in like I generally think that.
我也会这么说。
I would say that too.
但是你知道，我们已经大幅波动了。
But you know, we've moved hard.
我们可能会形成双顶。
We might double top.
我们可能会创出更高的高点。
We might make a higher high.
我们可能会形成一个略低的高点。
We might make a slightly lower high.
就像，有很多，比如
Like, there's a lot of, like
只是……
Just...
而且别以为这里会有4%的收益率。
And don't assume a 4% tenure here.
对。
Exactly.
至少一开始是这样。
At least right off the bat.
我是说，对。
I mean Yeah.
对，兄弟，你说得对。
Yeah, man, it's a good point.
我觉得大家都想回到2022年之前那种干净的状态，那时候有无限流动性支持，因为没有通胀，也没有地缘政治冲突。
Like, I think everybody wants us to return, you know, to the pre '22 era where it was clean, you had endless liquidity backstops because we had no inflation, we had no geopolitical conflict.
我们当时也没有这种真正的资源争夺战。
We, you know, we didn't have these real resources war.
然后我们就……
And, you know, we just...
尽管有各种奇怪的杠杆和缩写，但自2022年以来，我们一直处于流动性受限的环境中，他们只是勉强维持着运转。
Despite all the weird levers and acronyms, like we have been in a generally liquidity constrained environment since 2022, and they've just barely managed to keep it going along.
所以你只是……
So you just...
你在这个市场里看不到能带动所有股票的浪潮。
You can't see you can't see a tide lifting all boats in in this market.
这就导致了那些激进的轮动操作。
And that leads to these aggressive rotational moves.
然后那些专业基金公司就会进来，试图放大这些波动。
And then it leads to the pod shops that come in and try to exacerbate those moves.
而且这简直……
And it's just...
这压力大得要命。
It's it's stressful as fuck.
说实话，现在不容易，但这就是我们面对的市场。
Like, it's not easy these days, but that's the market that we have.
我相信大家都怀念2018年那种VIX低于10的日子，那时候每天都是缓慢上涨，但现在的情况已经完全不同了。
And I'm sure everybody's longing for a sub 10 VIX like back in 2018, where it was just slow grind up every day, but that's just not where we're at anymore.
我们现在就处在这个局面。
Here we are.
对，我觉得我最大的看法就是，接下来的几周，会有很多需要调整的地方。
Yeah, I think that's probably like my biggest view is that these over the next few weeks, I think there's just going to be a lot need.
我们需要非常灵活的心态，因为就在一周前，表面上看起来风平浪静。
There needs to be a lot of mental flexibility because what we just saw one week ago was at the surface, it seemed as calm as can be.
一切都在涨，AI股表现强劲，纳斯达克突破了，然后我们偏离高点，又跌回原来的区间，而韩国在三个月内第二次被清算。
Everything's ripping, AI is so backed, NASDAQ broke out, and here we deviate the highs and spit right back into the range and Korea just got liquidated as a nation for the second time in three months.
事情就这样发生了。
So that just happened.
还有几条特朗普的推文，让市场又开始追逐民调，诸如此类的事情。
A couple of Trump tweets that have the market chasing the poll again and all this stuff.
如果我们赢了中期选举，就会发5000美元的支票，然后等着看吧，他会发布一些民调，说他们领先，但实际上他们落后20个百分点。
And if we win in the midterms, 5,000 checks and then watch, he'll publish some poll that says they're winning when they're down by 20.
然后大家就会说，天哪，然后又信了。
And people will be like, Oh my God, and they'll be back and believing it again.
那大概就是一两周之后的事。
Then that'll be in a week or two.
表面之下其实一切都不太平。
Everything under the surface is not okay.
我们聊了四十七分钟都没提伊朗的石油，这大概是我过去两个月聊市场时创纪录的一次。
I mean, we've gone forty seven minutes here without talking about oil in Iran, which is maybe a record for me in any markets conversation over the last two months.
所以也许吧。
So maybe.
你怎么看？
What you think there?
不过没事，简单说说。
But no, okay, give a quick.
你在这件事上现在是什么看法？
Where are you at on that real quick?
局势肯定会再次升级。
There's absolutely going to be reescalation.
不过，如果要找一个最能操纵市场的时段，那大概就是中期选举前的两周。
But we're also in the like if there's a period of time to manipulate the markets the hardest, it would be the lead up in the two weeks to the midterms.
所以我是这么想的。
So I think Yeah.
我觉得你得做好心理准备，接受波动加剧和种种虚张声势的情况，对吧？
I think you have to be open to increasing volatility and a lot of charades, right?
各种遮掩手段层出不穷，但新闻情况简直糟透了。
I mean, lot of charades, but the news flow is horrendous.
真正有意思的是，西方媒体几乎没人报道正在发生的事。
The thing that is really interesting is it's like no one in the West is covering what's happening.
你只能去那些不太靠谱的非官方渠道找消息。
You have to go to dodgy third party.
你能信吗？
Can you trust it?
人们会问，你的信息是从哪里来的，你的新闻来源是什么？
People are like, Where do you get your information from in your news flow?
这就像是我能拿到的任何来源的精心挑选的组合，而且通常不会出现在任何头版上。
It's like an, you know, it's like a handpicked combo of like any source I can get, and it's usually not on the front pages of anything.
所以，是的。
So Yeah.
就像发生了什么，
Like what happened in
乌克兰战争，突然之间它还在继续，但你最后一次在新闻上看到它是什么时候？
the Ukraine war where like suddenly, you know, it's still happening, but when's the last time you saw that on the news?
这些事情都是周期性的，这关乎我们想把注意力引向哪里，但事情还在发生。
Like, you know, these things go in cycles and this is about where do we wanna point to hysteria, but it's still happening.
所以……
So...
这真的很有趣，因为我显然对此非常深入，但是……
And it's really interesting because I'm obviously very deep on it, but...
它有很强的观点。
It has strong views.
但我也很喜欢和那些不关心市场的朋友聊天，比如优步司机、服务员，还有那些做着与市场无关工作的人，听听他们的看法，因为我觉得……
But then I really enjoy, like, talking to, like, my friends who don't care about markets or like Uber drivers or, you know, waiters and waitresses and just people out and about that are doing jobs that are not related to markets and get their views because I don't think...
是的，这挺有意思的，因为新闻流和实际发生的事情并不完全匹配。
Yeah, it's just interesting because the news flow is not appropriately matched to actually the activity that's going on, I think.
他们为什么要在中期选举前两周做这件事？
Why would they do this two weeks before the midterms?
他们等了七个月，牺牲了大量的民调和支持率，却偏偏在两周前点燃这个，是的。
They've waited seven months and sacrificed immense amount of polling and approval ratings only to ignite this two weeks before Yeah.
这……
It
再给它一个月。
Give it one more Yeah.
一个月
Month
再多几条假推文、特朗普的头条新闻，我们就要进入中期选举了，到时候人们会说，算了，我们不干了。
And a couple more fake tweets, Trump headlines and we'll be rolling into midterms and people will be like, yeah, we're not gonna do it.
然后就像，好的，砰。
And then it's like, okay, boom.
惊喜。
Surprise.
我同意，有意思。
I agree with Interesting.
好吧，老兄。
Alright, man.
嗯，我想我们得聊到这儿了。
Well, I think we gotta leave it there.
不过，是的，很高兴能重新回到正轨。
But, yeah, great to be back in the swing of things here.
还有你在这里热衷的那些事。
And the stuff you're all about here.
是的，一如既往地精彩。
But, yeah, Great as always.
彼此彼此，兄弟。
Likewise, brother.
周末愉快。
Have a good weekend.
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