美联储沦为市场重估现实的背景噪音 | 每周回顾

就像这样，我刚看到一个标题说亚马逊要投资500亿美元给OpenAI。

It's like and so I see I just saw a headline that said Amazon's gonna invest 50,000,000,000 into OpenAI.

这些数字简直让人瞠目结舌，我觉得他们所有人就像在追逐《指环王》里的魔戒一样。

And and these numbers are just I mean, they're staggering to the point where it's like chasing the freaking ring from Lord of the Rings is is what I think they're all doing.

在我看来，大型科技股的泡沫就是这样被吹大的：如果AI真的如人们所预期的那样，而他们又在上面投入了难以置信的资金，这可能会成为科技巨头‘七巨头’泡沫的终结。

And I don't see you know, this is how blow off top tops kind of are made, in my opinion, in large cap tech is we could see if if AI turns out to be what it is and they're spending ungodly amounts of money to do it, this might be the end of the the giant large cap mag seven bubble.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一场要么成功要么彻底失败的局面。

It's it's a make it or break it situation.

这里还有几张图表，都是Claude用一条指令在三十秒内帮我做出来的。

Here's a couple other charts again that, like, Claude literally made all this for me in like thirty seconds off one prompt.

这太疯狂了。

It's insane.

而且我确实仔细核对过了。

And it is, like, I I double checked it.

这相当不错。

It's pretty good.

这是他们未来一年左右资金来源的变化情况。

This is how their funding sources are changing over the next year or so.

所以你可以看到，大部分资金原本都是来自运营现金流。

So you can see most of it was just being funded from from operating cash flow.

他们开始发行一些新债务，但现在我们简直是在大规模发行公司债券。

They started to do some new debt issuance, but now it's like we're ripping we're ripping new corporate bond issuance.

我们还在进行私人信贷融资。

We're doing, you know, private credit financing.

他们在另一个AI数据中心搞了一笔270亿美元的表外私人融资交易。

They had this, $27,000,000,000 private financing off balance sheet deal at a different AI data center.

他们正在动用现金储备。

They're they're drawing down on their cash reserves.

这简直太夸张了，我怎么强调都不为过。

Like, this is just a I can't say this enough.

我知道我们以前在节目中也说过类似的话，但这些所谓的‘七巨头’，曾经被视为自由现金流的机器，现在已不再如此了。

I know we've had these rants before on the show, but, like, these mag seven darlings of just, like, free cash flow machines are not like that anymore.

它们现在正在发生变化。

They're changing right now.

我认为，是的，你知道，Meta在公布最佳业绩后股价上涨了10%，因为他们的财报超出了预期。

And I think, yes, you know, Meta's up 10% after the best because their earnings just surprised by the upside.

但我认为，从2026年及以后的前瞻指引来看，这标志着它们商业模式的根本性转变。

But I think the the forward guidance guidance here for 2026 onward is just a very fundamental shift in their business models.

而且，是的，需求依然存在，所以这是它们的债券发行。

And, yeah, there's still demand for so this is their bond issuance.

它们还有很大的空间。

Like there's a lot of runway.

这次发行被超额认购了四倍。

This thing was four times oversubscribed.

但再说一次，它们的自由现金流利润率正在收窄。

But again, their free cash flow margin is compressing.

他们曾经拥有30%以上的自由现金流利润率，我都不知该怎么说了，但现在却正在跌至零。

It's like they have a 30 plus percent free class, I can't speak, free cash flow margin, and now it's going down to nothing.

他们的长期债务正在急剧上升。

Their long And term debt is just surging.

就像这个

Like, this

这太疯狂了。

is crazy.

还有溢价。

There's the premium.

溢价会被压缩。

The premium's gonna get smushed.

对吧？

Right?

即使如此，我也看不到在AI成功的前提下，有什么能改变这一点。

Even and and that's I don't see what changes that in a world where if AI works.

天啊，想想这件事还真有点荒谬。

Like, God, it's kind of wacky to think about.

不仅如此，我不知道你有没有注意到这一点。

Not only that, but I don't know if you noticed this.

我本身也不是个重度社交媒体用户，但当你思考人工智能对社交媒体的影响时，人们可能会直接关掉它。

Not even a big social media user, but when you think about the ramifications of AI on social media, people are just gonna turn it off.

我知道那个人不是真实的，依我看来，你多少能察觉出来，也许现在越来越难分辨了。

Like, I know that that person's not real and you can kind of tell in my opinion, maybe it's better and better.

但你看看推特上，现在人们回复你，明显是某个AI代理在操作。

But like, There's like, I don't know if you You'll see on Twitter, people respond to you now and it's clearly some AI agent.

比如，嘿，关注我一下。

It'd be like, Hey, hit me back with a follow.

我刚关注你了。

I just followed you.

这些情况你如果是个聪明的普通人，多少能看出来，但也许将来这种情况会改变。

It's all these like, you can kind of tell if you're a human, if you're smart, but maybe that changes eventually.

但我认为，所有这些平台的问题在于，人工智能会扰乱每个人。

But I think that's the problem with all these platforms is that AI can disrupt everybody.

而且我认为每个人都会直接关掉它们。

And I think everyone's gonna just turn it off.

我觉得这就是所有社交媒体乱象的最终结局。

I think that's the end game on all the social media nonsense.

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我认为确实正在出现一种趋势。

I do think there's a growing trend.

实际上现在有一些产品叫做基础手机或者功能机，它们就像过去的手机一样，人们正在购买它们。

There's actually these products called, like, basic phones or, like, dumb phones where they're it's it's like what phones used to be and people are buying them.

或者还有一些专门的设备，可以把你的手机锁起来，让你拿不出来。

Or there's these actual devices where you lock your phone up and you can't get it out.

人们会买这些东西，因为根本不可能把手机放下。

Like people buy these things because it's so impossible to put your phone down.

这让我想到费利克斯·沃姆皮对标普500为何便宜或估值合理的解释，原因在于其成分公司的构成。

The thing I this triggers in my mind is Felix Warmpie's workaround why the S and P five hundred is cheap or fair valued because of the composition of companies.

我在推特上发了一些内容，他回复了我。

And I put something out on Twitter and he responded.

我们当时在讨论这个问题。

We were kind of talking about it.

但我对这个观点最大的可能异议是，在七十年代，七八十年代的某个时候，标普指数主要由石油公司主导。

But my biggest, maybe disagreement with that view is that in the seventies, there's a point in the eighties seventies or eighties where, you know, the S and P was Meg seven was oil companies.

那时你也可以这么说，成分构成是石油公司，市盈率是合理的，因为当时利润率更高，但这种成分构成一直在变化，经过无数年的技术革命——铁路、互联网、电力等等——市盈率都曾达到顶峰，因为利润最终会被竞争稀释。

You at that time could also say, the constituency mix is oil companies and the multiples are justified because there's a higher, but that constituency mix has always changed and price to earnings multiples over many, many years through every single technological boom, railroads, Internet, electricity, everything have reached a maximum because profits get competed away.

当你思考这种成分构成时，这些企业的本质已经与过去大不相同了。

And when you think about that constituency mix, these businesses are fundamentally changing from what they were.

因此，说像Meta这样的公司，没有资本支出、营业利润率高达80%，纯粹是轻资产的科技软件业务，它的市盈率只是一个水平。

So saying that like the PE is cheap of a company of a meta that had no CapEx and 80% margins, operating margins, and was purely capital light tech business software is one PE multiple.

但一家在资本支出后没有自由现金流、属于重资本、硬基础设施且目前负债累累的企业，它的市盈率则是另一个水平。

But a company that has no free cash flow after capital expenditures and is a cap heavy, you know, hard infrastructure business that's levered now is a different PV multiple.

你不能看着这些公司就说：它们是同一家公司，估值理应相同。

You can't look at cards and be like, it's the same company, valuation is equally warranted.

是的，所以

Yeah, so

你从一个增长型行业，变成了纯粹的公用事业。

the- You go from a growth industry to just, you you become a utility.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这是完全不同的，仅凭这个指标，对吧？

So it's a completely different and just by that metric, right?

比如快进到未来，因为它们都在不断增加这些。

Like just fast forward this because they're all increasing these.

所以这些数字只会变得更糟，对吧？

So these numbers are only going to worsen, right?

从现金流的角度来看，它们并没有改善。

They're not improving from a cash flow perspective.

所以把这一点推演到2026年或2027年。

So play that forward to '26 or '27.

我们已经到了2026年、2027年、2028年。

We're in '26, 27, '28.

仅凭这一事实，整个市场25到30倍的市盈率就更难成立了。

The multiple just on that fact alone becomes harder to justify at a market wide, seven wide 25 to 30 PE.

如果你看第39张图表，我觉得这非常有趣，因为大家都谈论所谓的科技股，比如标普指数与其他股票的对比。

And if you go to chart 39, I thought this was really interesting because everyone talks about like mags, you know, the S and P versus the rest.

但等权重指数的倍数也达到了历史最高水平。

But equal weights also at all time high multiples.

如今，罗素指数在最近的上涨后，已达到2024年特朗普当选时的市盈率和账面价值高点。

Now the Russell with this Russell's recent move, it's at twenty twenty four Trump election PE highs and book value, principal high.

所以市场上几乎没有便宜的东西。

So nothing in the market that's cheap.

也许某些能源板块，或者一些特定行业还有机会。

Maybe some energy, maybe some specific sectors.

但如果你仔细看，整个股票市场几乎没有什么是便宜的。

But if you look at the right, there's pretty much nothing in the equity world that's cheap.

不过，如果出现美元货币危机，发生类似魏玛德国那样的印钞潮或收益率曲线控制，情况会怎样呢？

To play contra to that, though, what happens if there is some currency crisis with the dollar and you do get a Weimar Germany type money printing event or yield curve control.

那么，我们已经在黄金身上看到了这种现象。

Then Well, we're seeing it with gold.

就是这样。

That's what happens.

这就是为什么人们转向稀缺性，因为我们突然意识到，所有这些软件产品不再稀缺了。

That's why people are going for scarcity because suddenly we've realized all these software things, they're no longer scarce, scarce

是的。

Yeah.

随便吧。

Whatever.

现在每个人都想寻找他们知道具有持久价值的东西。

Now everybody's reaching for something that they know is durable.

发生的情况是，名义收益会上升，因为在魏玛德国时期出现了恶性通胀，收益会上涨，但这并不会改变市盈率，因为如果通胀率为10%，且利润率没有下降，那么收益每年仅因名义增长就会上升10%。

What happens is nominally earnings go up because inflation in Weimar, you had crazy inflation, so earnings go up, but that doesn't change the price to earnings because if there's 10% inflation and earnings and there's no profit margin hit, earnings appreciate 10% a year just nominally.

但这并不意味着市盈率应该飙升。

But that doesn't mean the multiple should go to the moon.

事实上，市盈率从未这样上涨过。

Like, the multiples never have done that.

是的。

Yeah.

我非常希望

I would love

能看到一张回溯一百年的长期图表，因为在我看来，各个行业在那种背景下可能享有溢价，然后变得过度，接着某些行业会被彻底摧毁。

to see a longer term chart going back a hundred years because, I mean, industries probably have premiums in that backdrop, and then they get egregious, and then certain get absolutely decimated.

但我想表达的是，如果债务贬值，由于政治原因，持有债务这个概念就会瞬间消失。

But I guess what I'm trying to say is, like, if debt loses value, the idea of, like, owning debt just goes, know, poof because of political reasons.

你唯一还能用来保全面子的投资去处就是股票。

The only place you have left to put your money to save face is equities.

那就是唯一的选择。

That's the No.

唯一

Only

替代货币和价值储存手段就是生产这些资产的公司。

Alternate currencies and stores of values are companies that produce them.

是的。

Yes.

因为实际上黄金矿企就是主权性的。

Because in effect gold miners are the sovereign Yeah.

实际上黄金矿企就是主权性的——

Effectively gold miners are the sovereign-

我认为这里的重点是，我们来看看2022年发生了什么。

I think the point here is like, let's just look at what happened in 2022.

2022年，当我们遭遇高通胀时，每个人都需要一种可以持有的对冲工具。

In 2022, when we got the high inflation, everybody needed something that they could hold on to hedge.

他们涌向黄金股，因为它们是自由现金流机器。

They went into max seven because they're free cash flow machines.

这本质上是一种对抗通胀的对冲手段。

And it was basically like a hedge against inflation.

我认为就像

And I think like

2022年？

In '22?

是的。

Yeah.

它们反弹得相当强劲。

They came back pretty strong.

2023年和2024年，但2023年，是的。

In '23 and '24, but tech- '23, yeah.

彻底崩盘了。

Obliterated.

一开始确实被彻底击垮了，但随后又显著反弹了。

It did get obliterated at first, but then it came back pretty significantly.

一旦人们意识到，好吧，考虑到当前的利率水平，我可以持有这个不断产生自由现金流的资产类别。

Once people realised that, okay, with rates where they are, I can hold onto this asset class that is just spinning off free cash flow.

然后它们强势回归。

And then they came back ripping.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但我认为这种情况不会重演，因为它不再产生自由现金流了。

But I think that's not gonna repeat itself because it doesn't have the free cash flow anymore.

或者股票回购。

Or buybacks.

是的。

Yeah.

或者股票回购。

Or buybacks.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一台通过股票回购产生自由现金流的机器。

It's a buyback free cash flow machine.

就像人们说的，这简直就是新的国债。

Like, it was like, why would it this was the new T bills, like people were saying.

我觉得我不想要持有债务。

It's like, I don't wanna own debt.

我会选择七只股票，但我觉得这不可持续。

I'm gonna go on max seven, and I don't think that's repeatable.

所以现在我们在金属领域看到了这种情况。

So now we're seeing it in metals instead.

另一个加剧这一趋势的因素是劳动力市场，你知道，两大关键点：他们正用所有自由现金流回购股票，而所有被动资金都在流入七只龙头股。

Well, the other the other fuel to throw on that fire is if the labor you know, the two big things, oh, they're just buying back every last one of their stock with all their free cash flow and all the passive flows are flowing in a mag seven.

劳动力市场已经连续六个月左右在裁员了。

Well, the labor market has been shedding jobs for like six months straight now or whatever it is.

那么，这是否会变成一个净效应？我们看到储蓄率在下降，这意味着人们的可支配收入在减少，储蓄也在减少。

So is that now going to become a net, you know, and we're seeing the savings rate dip, which means people are going into their, disposable income more and saving less.

那么，这是否正在改变被动资金对七只龙头股的推动作用？

So is that actually turning in terms of the passive flow boost to mag seven?

因为如果股票回购和来自401(k)的新增被动资金同时转向下行，那就得小心了。

Because if buybacks and all the new passive flow from four zero one k contributions are actually both turning over at the same time, like, look out.

是的

Yeah.

这真是个令人担忧的想法。

That's that's a scary thought.

是的

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们在这里想表达的是，英伟达连续六个月下跌绝非偶然。

I mean, I I think all we're saying here is that, like, the fact that NVIDIA has been chopping for six months is not a coincidence.

是的

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

这涉及到大量的分布或积累，时间会告诉我们答案。

It's a lot of distribution or accumulation, we will find out over time.

从微观市场结构来看，看看这个。

The on the market structure from a micro perspective, check out this.

这是第44页幻灯片。

This is slide 44.

今天早上，我们看到了一场疯狂的波动率飙升。

Today, we we saw, like, an insane vol spike in the morning.

这张截图是我几乎在VIX达到峰值时截取的。

This I took this snapshot literally almost at the peak of, you know, where the VIX was.

九日VIX上涨了33%。

And the nine day VIX was at up 33%.

如果你看一个月的隐含相关性，它上涨了77%。

If you look at implied correlation one month, that was up 77%.

这些系统性交易者，市场结构之所以这么混乱，是因为我想知道SPY收盘在哪里？

So these systematic guys, this is what's so messed up about the market structure is like, I think spies closed, where did they close?

今天下跌了20个基点。

Down 20 bips today.

但由于这些系统性量化投资者——你可以称他们为系统性投资者——采用同质化操作方式，导致日内波动剧烈，但最终却只下跌了20个基点。

But like, you have this because of this homogeneous way, these systematic quant investors, you could call them I think they're more systematic investors, manage, there's insane intraday vol, but then we end up down 20 bps.

而且感觉什么都没发生。

And it feels like nothing really happened.

但如果你深入看一眼，其实非常疯狂。

But if you look under the surface, it was wild.

而且这种事情正变得越来越频繁，我认为这是一个信号。

And and this stuff is happening more and more, and it's a I think it's a sign to me.

这就像你去做心电图，你的心跳看起来很正常。

It's like, you know, if you will go to, like, an EKG, your heart's going, normal.

但现在我们的情况是，我觉得我们正在经历一场心脏病发作，却没人真正把这些数据串联起来。

And now now we're going, and it's getting like I feel like we're having a heart attack here, and no one's really, like, adding it up.

这太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

我刚才在看白银。

Like This I was just looking at silver.

今天白银一度下跌了20%，呃，不对，是下跌了12%，但现在收盘只跌了80个基点。

It was it was down 20 per or sorry, 12% in one day today, and now it's closing at just down 80 basis points.

这简直太荒谬了。

Like, it's just absurd.

等等，让我把话说完，我有个想法。

This is and finish your thought, I have something.

你提到这个真是太讽刺了。

It's hilarious you bring this up.

我觉得，他们针对的是各种资产，我们正在试图理解这个现实。

Well, I think it's like the they're across assets, we're trying to figure out a reality.

如果你看看，就像你说的，金价飙升得很高，日内股市波动率也很高，但他们却一直在压制债券和外汇的下跌。

If you look at, like you said, gold fall, super high, but and then intraday equity vol, super high, yet they keep stifling bond and and FX fall.

所以，其他所有资产都在努力寻找一种平衡，围绕着我们将采用何种新体系作为价值储存手段。

And so everything else is trying to find some sort of equilibrium around the world of of what new system we're gonna use for stores of value.

我只是越来越感到不安。

And and it's just I I'm getting increasingly nervous.

唯一还没

The only thing that hasn't

你应该。

You should.

信用利差已经收窄了。

Worn out is credit spreads.

信用利差仍然很低。

Credit spreads are still low.

债券波动率仍然很低。

Bond volatility is still low.

这主要是对政策制定者而言，还有地缘政治和贸易问题，西方世界的贸易至今尚未受到影响。

And this is to to the policymakers and, you know, geopolitical trade you know, the Western world of trade has not been bothered by it yet.

我们还没看到套利交易平仓。

We haven't seen the carry trade unwind yet.

我其实听说迈克·盖伊说他会来。

I actually have Mike Mike Guy had said he's gonna come on.

我一直在推特上和他交流。

He's I've been talking to him on Twitter.

而且，你知道，他明显非常看空，认为我们会崩盘。

And, you know, he's obviously super bearish, thinks we're gonna crash.

而你知道，我呢，我觉得这就像魏玛德国。

And, you know, me, I'm like, oh, this is Weimar Germany.

我们会一路暴涨到无限高。

We're gonna just melt up and to infinity.

你们俩在一起一定会非常精彩。

You two together is gonna be incredible.

因为有趣的是，我看到的是

Because what's the funny part is I see what

他完全不同。

he's so different.

是的。

Yeah.

但我觉得很难想象还有两个人在观点上比他们更截然不同。

But, like, I could not think of people two people more different in their views.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我确实尊重这一点。

And I actually respect it.

我很欣赏他的观点，我认为他理解宏观局势。

Like, I really like his And I think he gets the macro.

只是他的最终结论是世界末日。

It's just that his end result is the world's ending.

而我的观点是，政府总会用印钞来救助市场。

And mine is the government's will always bail it out with paper.

所以这里有个假设。

So here's a hypothesis.

我和我的朋友聊过，他是我的信贷专家。

I was having a conversation with my buddy who's my credit plug.

我们曾经一起工作，他在一家大型信贷基金公司。

We used to work together and he's at a big credit fund.

他评论说，最差的CCC级信贷交易也在完成。

He was commenting on how the shittiest of all credits, CCC hooks are getting done.

任何有活力的公司都能通过审核。

And any company with a pulse is getting through.

我们聊到了他即将迎来的财报季，以及他所覆盖的一些不同行业。

And we were talking about his earning seasons coming up and some of the different sectors he covers.

我只是提到，现在有这么多独特的现象正在发生。

I was just remarking how there's so much idiosyncratic stuff going on.

你在伊朗和委内瑞拉面临地缘政治风险。

You have geopolitical risk in Iran and Venezuela.

任何有石油专长的人，都被牢牢锁定在能源领域。

That's just anybody who has oil expertise is just locked into the energy space.

人工智能带来了潜在的资本支出热潮问题，正在浮出水面，影响着Meg七、超大规模云服务商，这些都需要所有人关注。

You have AI with the potential CapEx boom issues coming to surface, hitting the Meg seven, hitting the hyperscalers, these whole problems that's requiring everybody's attention.

人工智能的软件层面，是不是已经死了？

The software side of AI, which is like, is it dead?

它会被压垮吗？

Is it going to get crushed?

所有人都关注那里。

Everyone's focused there.

由于事情太多，市场每个角落都吸引了目光和关注。

There's eyes and attention on every single part of the market because there's so much going on.

我觉得，泰勒，你向我解释的那样，每个人都困在试图理解自己的板块里，宏观层面正以一种梦游般的方式被忽视，而在我看来，当前发生的一切对股市都不利。

I kind of think that like Tyler, what you're explaining to me, everyone's so locked in trying to figure out their sector that the macro here is kind of going unnoticed in a sleepwalking way where everything that's going on is not good for equities, in my opinion.

没有一个是好的。

None of it.

所有这些短暂的波动飙升都被压制下去了，就像维克的空头头寸达到了2024年我们经历Volmage以来的最高水平。

All these little vol spike teases that get hammered down, it's like Vic's shorts are at highs, most recent to 2024 when we had Volmage.

这里有许多糟糕至极的事实模式。

There's so many fact patterns here that are just terrible.

我认为大多数人最好离开市场三个月，只在你关注的资产出现重大变动时才关注通知，因为我确实非常看空。

I think most people are probably best off just leaving the markets for three months and keeping notification when you just get some big thing happen in the assets you watch, because I do think I'm really negative.

这并不意味着，人们会想，哦，好吧，他现在是2000%的极致空头。

Like that doesn't mean, you know, people think, oh, okay, he's, you know, he's a 2000% max short right now.

不，你得在操作方式上保持策略性。

It's like, no, you have to be tactical with how you're playing it.

时机至关重要，但我确实认为，三个月内将酝酿出巨大的风险并浮出水面。

And timing is huge, but I do think there's huge risk brewing that will come to the surface in three months.

而这种观点，你可以持有现金。

And that's a view you can have cash.

我知道，我们都讨厌法币，但在短期内，现金作为一种仓位，或者对于期货来说，确实如此。

I know, you know, we all hate Fiat, but for short periods of time that, you know, cash is a position or so for futures.

就我而言，我认为实际的降息幅度会比目前预期的更多。

If if in my case, I think that, you know, there's going to be more cuts than currently expected.

所以我的情绪就是，我不知道会从哪里开始崩盘。

So that's just my sentiment is like, I don't know what's going to be the crack.

没人知道，但风险正在酝酿中。

No one knows, but it's brewing.

我猜在未来三个月内，会发生某个重大事件。

And my guess is in the next three months, there's some ball event.

我认为我和你处于同样的境地，最让我感到棘手的是信用利差。

I think I probably am in the same seat where the one thing that's so tricky to me is the the credit spreads.

我知道这种情况通常会在最后出现。

And I know that that usually comes at the end.

我一直在观察一切崩溃的迹象，我记得2008年那时我就坐在那里。

And I what I'm watching for the to for everything to break is I think I remember this in 2008, which was when I was sitting there.

我觉得黄金上涨，然后油价出现了超级飙升。

I think gold rallied and then oil went on this super spike.

嗯。

It just Mhmm.

彻底爆发了。

Blew out.

我认为当油价爆发时，也拖垮了债券市场。

And I think when oil blew out, that blew out the bond market.

然后，你知道，大家都开始担心了。

And then, you know, everyone got worried.

他们变得稍微更鹰派了。

They got a little more hawkish.

信用利差扩大了。

Credit spreads blew out.

如果我要 pinpoint 这个情况，这可能就是操作手册。

That could be the playbook if I was gonna, you know, put my finger on it.

但我认为在此之前，我们会看到收益率曲线控制。

But I think before then, we get yield curve control.

我们会看到战略石油储备的释放。

You get SPR release.

政府会采取各种干预措施，试图阻止这场末日，因为情况更糟。

You get all sorts of things government intervention wise to try to stop that, you know, Armageddon because this is worse.

所有的失衡都比2008年严重了十倍。

All the imbalances are 10 times worse than they were in 2008.

很明显，世界正在分崩离析。

Like, the world is breaking apart, clearly.

社会契约正在瓦解。

Social contract unraveling.

这是最糟糕中的最糟糕，就像堵住堤坝上的一个洞，另一个地方又漏了，你只能这边堵那边补，手忙脚乱。

It's it's it's the worst of the worst, and they just it's like putting, like, your your hole in the dike and then another one leaks, and you're, like, going like this, and you're going like this.

这其实就是婴儿潮一代体系的崩溃。

It all you know, this is this is the the boomer system's unraveling here.

事情正在急剧恶化，这太可怕了。

It's so forth turning, and it's it's scary.

我不该拿这个开玩笑。

I shouldn't, like, laugh about it.

但你知道，也有可能出现对等的结果，那就是人工智能真正实现。

But, you know, the probability is that you could also have the equal outcome that AI comes to fruition.

我们会迎来一场生产率的爆发。

We have a productivity boom.

这是一场21世纪的工业革命。

This is a twenty first century, you know, industrial revolution.

如果他们能将债券波动率保持在低位，这也是有可能的。

That's very if they can keep the bond vol low, that's also a possibility.

但如果这种生产力的提升也导致大规模白领裁员呢？

But then what do do if that productivity boom makes for mass white collar layoffs too?

就像，你知道的？

Like, there's just you know?

这太疯狂了。

It's it's crazy.

信用利差现在被过度讨论了，因为信用利差现在是同步指标。

The credit spreads thing is over discussed now because credit spreads now are coincident indicators.

它们不再是领先指标，因为主权国家的杠杆问题并非由信贷引发。

They're not leading indicators because when the leverage problems at the sovereign, it's not caused by credit.

经济中并没有信贷问题，因为他们用各种手段掩盖了每一个裂缝。

There's no credit issues in the economy because they paper over every crack.

所以所有企业都没问题。

So all the corporates are fine.

就像我们刚才说的，他们都把债务期限延长了。

Like we just said, all of them have termed out all their debt.

他们能够进入资本市场，因为许多企业的信用评级甚至高于其背后的主权国家。

They have access to the capital markets because a lot of corporates are better credits than than the underlying sovereign.

所以信用利差这个问题，如果你画一张标普指数和信用利差的图表，就会发现它们是同步的。

So the credit spread thing is if you just plot a chart of the S and P and credit spreads, it's coincident.

并不是领先指标。

It's not leading.

只是在之后才会出现停滞。

It's only that it seizes up after.

而且很多风险现在也转移到了资产负债表外的私人信贷市场。

And a lot of the risk is off balance sheet now too in private credit markets.

就像我之前提到的Meta，他们那笔270亿美元的数据中心交易，就是通过私人信贷进行的，不在资产负债表上。

Like, to my point earlier about Meta, like, their $27,000,000,000 data center deal, that's off balance sheet in private credit.

这在公开市场上并没有被定价

It's not, like, it's not being priced in in public

信用利差。

credit spreads.

泰勒，上周五晚上有个公告，当时Blackhawk说他们的一个信贷基金遭受了20%的折价。

Tyler, sides received is the Friday night announcements from last week when black when Blackhawk's like, oh, our one credit fund is took a 20% haircut.

这感觉有点奇怪。

It's like, oh, that's weird.

就这一个。

Just that one.

大幅下跌。

Blowout.

是的。

Yeah.

只是

It's just

关闭

off

它并不体现在公开的信用利差上。

it it it's not in public credit spreads.

是的。

Yeah.

这世界真奇怪，老兄。

It's a weird world, man.

我觉得是的。

I I think yeah.

这世界真奇怪。

It's it's a weird world.

在某些方面，我其实非常乐观，因为有些事情正在发生变化。

In in some ways, I'm, like, really optimistic because things are some things are changing.

比如，这周我和朋友聊过这件事。

Like, we're finally I said this to my buddy this week.

他说，我终于感觉到了，即使这里有很多痛苦，但对下一代来说，第一次有了一些希望的曙光。

He's like, I finally feel like even if there is a lot of pain here, that there is some green light for the next generations for the first time in a while.

我不确定这是否是一种奇怪的熊市。

I don't know if it's a weird Bear.

你拥有的真是件怪事。

Bizarre thing you have.

我只是觉得，当你看到资产类别的疯狂波动时，比如如果你抓住了黄金的走势，那就是。

I just think like when you see crazy moves in asset classes, like if you caught the gold move, like that's That

太棒了。

was sick.

这终于意味着，如果你有资本，就能领先于巨额通胀。

That's finally like, you know, you stay ahead of massive amounts of inflation if you have capital.

困难的部分在于，如果你没有资本。

The hard part is like if you don't have capital.

那就是社会问题所在，是的。

That's like where the social Yeah.

合同

Contract

这就是全部了。

That's the whole thing.

我觉得社会动荡在好转之前会变得更糟。

Like, I think the social unrest is gonna get worse before it gets better.

但我认为，只要你保持清醒，就能看到隧道尽头的光。

But I think if you keep your wits about you, you can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

只是在那之前，情况会变得更黑暗。

It's just it gets darker first.

是的。

Yeah.

始终做一个乐观的人，以观察的心态对待一切，不要固守某种观点，这样你就能在各种环境中获利。

Just be an optimist at all times and approach everything in an observant mindset and don't get married to views and then you can profit from all the environments.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，现在主题板块有多令人兴奋这一点很重要，难怪上周人们还说：天啊，他们一次都没提到比特币或加密货币。

Mean, I think just the point about how exciting thematic sectors are right now is important and why like Last week people were like, Oh man, they didn't mention Bitcoin or crypto once.

这是因为当前整个市场都死气沉沉。

It's like, because it's a completely dead market right now.

但现在有太多有趣的事情正在各个领域同时发生，无论是做多还是做空。

And there's just so much interesting stuff happening right now in so many different sectors, long and short.

比如，你现在完全可以做一个Delta中性的组合，做空软件股，同时做多金属。

Like, you can you can run a Delta neutral book right now and short software and long metals.

这样你甚至不用承担Delta风险，就能迎来一个超棒的月份。

And like, you had a sick month without taking delta exposure.

现在有很多类似这样的机会。

And like, there's a lot of different opportunities like that right now.

你甚至可以持看空立场。

And you can be you can be negative.

你可以对大盘指数持看跌观点，同时仍然保持多头和空头头寸。

You can be bearish on beta on index and still have long, still have shorts.

对于交易员来说，现在真是有很多有趣的行情。

Like, there's just a lot of fun action right now if you're a trader.

是的，这是一个非常微妙的市场。

Yeah, it's a very nuanced market.

我做空了大型科技股，它们一直横盘，而金属和其他资产却大幅上涨。

I've been short big tech and it's been flat and then the metals and everything else has popped off.

但我不知道下一次行情会怎样，说实话，我认为下一次操作是所有资产一起下跌，因为相关性需要重新活跃起来，我觉得。

But don't know what the next I think my honest take is I think the next trade is it all down together because correlations need to see some life, I think.

但这可能要两个月后才发生，而在那之前还有很多交易机会可以赚钱。

But that could be in two months from now and plenty of money trading to be made before then.

我的意思是，今天很不稳定。

I mean, today was dicey.

你看到所有资产都在下跌。

Like you saw everything down.

金属下跌，股市也下跌。

Metals down, equities down.

这很难，是的。

Well, it's hard Yeah.

你必须

To

我不知道。

I don't know.

你必须非常清楚自己所处的环境以及资金流向，因为历史上，一旦出现风险规避日，市场反而会上涨。

You have to be really cognizant of the environment you're in and where the money's been flowing because, historically, if you get a risk off day, right, has been rallying.

但当你看到白银的交易量与SPY相当时，就不可能再把它视为去杠杆过程中的避险资产了。

But when you look at these charts of silver trading as much volume as SPY, there's no way that's a safe haven in a deleveraging move anymore.

所以我认为，你只是需要保持清醒，因为过去你认为存在的相关性或避险流动，在当前环境下，你真正需要关注的是人们没有去的地方，因为我现在没带在身上。

So I think, you know, you just need to be cognizant because the correlations you might have thought once were there or the flights to safety, it's like you really in this environment need to be focusing on where people aren't because I don't have it with me.

我下周一可以给你看。

I can show it next week.

但对冲基金和所有主经纪商的总杠杆水平都达到了历史高位。

But the gross leverage levels across hedge funds, across all the prime desks are at record highs.

净头寸处于2025年的高位，因为在2024年时人们的持仓要长得多。

Net is at the 2025 highs because was much higher levels in 'twenty four where people were running much longer.

但总杠杆率持续上升。

But gross just keeps scaling up.

因此，对冲基金的总杠杆率达到了历史最高水平。

So you have hedge fund gross leverage at all time highs.

VIX空头也达到了历史最高水平。

You have VIX shorts at all time highs.

目前还没有哪个资产类别是人们还没大量涌入的，对吧？

There's not really an asset class that people haven't piled into yet, right?

因为你会想，哦，比特币和加密货币该回调了吧？

Because you want to say, Oh, Bitcoin and crypto are due, right?

根本没有持仓。

There's no positioning.

现在全是冷漠，这很好。

It's all apathy now, which is great.

但这是否意味着它会突然爆发呢？

But does that mean it's going to pop off?

我不知道，因为其他所有东西都已经爆发过了。

I don't know, because everything else has popped off already.

所以你在这类轮动中持有多头仓位已经太久，我觉得，迟早蒸汽会泄掉。

So you're kind of getting so long in this tooth, I think, of these rotations before steam just comes out.

关于这一点，一个有趣的思维实验是，当比特币真正开始急剧上涨时，SPAC的数量变少了。

You know what's an interesting thought experiment on that is when Bitcoin really went on kind of a parabolic rise, there was less SPACs.

那些追逐核能AI基础设施的酷炫机器人或热门主题也变少了。

There was less cool robotics or cool themes that chase nuclear AI infrastructure.

这仅仅是被供应稀释了。

It was just diluted by supply.

首先，你有山寨币的稀释。

First, you had the altcoins diluted.

你知道，这真的毁了一切，因为除了少数几个山寨币，我认为它们普遍来说根本没什么用。

You know, that really ruined everything because, like, I I mean, besides a handful of altcoins, I don't think they do anything, like, generally speaking.

比如，不会。

Like No.

我的意思是，他们可能有个很棒的点子。

I mean I mean, they they probably have a great idea.

但是，就像

But, like

做任何事。

do anything.

你可以说

You can just say

不会。

No.

比如，我觉得Aave算一个小的，对我来说，这说得通。

Like like, I think Aave is a small like, that to me, that makes sense.

就像是你出借。

It's like a you you lend.

你会获得利息。

You get interest.

是的。

Yeah.

但那是Aave协议。

But that's Aave the protocol.

Aave代币与它没有任何关联。

Aave the token has no association with it.

这就是问题所在。

That's the issue.

你有——另外，泰勒，我们先统一一下认识。

You have- Also, Tyler, let's just level set too.

MicroStrategy这个币、这个代币、这个股权也什么都不做。

MicroStrategy, the coin, the token, the equity doesn't do anything either.

对。

Yeah.

嗯，是的。

Well, yeah.

我的意思是，这公平。

I mean, that's fair.

但那是一种套利。

But that was an arbitrage.

那是一种从公开市场到私人市场的套利，持续了相当长一段时间。

That was a public to private market arbitrage for however long period of time.

我认为在供应量和ATM管理上出了问题。

And I think it was mismanaged on the supply of it and the ATM.

这导致了 treasury 公司的繁荣，它们过度向市场供应。

And that caused this boom in treasury companies that would oversupply the market.

我的意思是，它们向市场过度供应了前沿理念。

My point being is that they oversupplied the market with frontier ideas.

而现在，要让这些前沿理念更进一步，唯一的方式就是更多的M2增长、更多的货币印制，以及你需要一个叙事。

And now the only thing to get the frontier ideas going to the next level is, you know, more m two growth, more money printing, and you need a narrative.

你需要一个准入机制的改变。

You need an access change.

比如，能让比特币动起来的可能是某项立法，或者像软银这样的公司宣布他们打算购买X、Y、Z。

Like, what would get Bitcoin moving is like a piece of legislation or, I don't know, some soft bank saying they're gonna go buy x, y, z.

但现在，它的走势在各种主题间来回切换，比如太空，然后因为大量太空概念投机，这个主题就被过度供给了。

But right now, it moves from theme to theme, which is like space, and then that gets oversupplied because you do a bunch of space specs.

而且，就连这个都还没发生呢。

And then, you know, that even hasn't hasn't even happened yet.

但当SpaceX上市时，所有其他太空概念股都会被彻底击垮，因为每个人都想分一杯羹。

But, like, when SpaceX comes to market, that all the other space docs are gonna get annihilated because everyone wants a piece of that thing.

你知道，我的意思是，现在黄金市场，你开始看到所有加拿大券商都在说：‘那个空缺了十五年的机会，我们有个绝佳的资源给你。’

And, you know, it should my my point being is that, like, now gold, you're starting to see all the Canadian brokers just, oh, that hole that was there for like fifteen years, we got a great resource for you.

这简直就是典型的银行家做派。

It's just like the classic banker.

他们会编造任何东西，把垃圾包装成珍馐美馔端到你面前。

They will make up anything serve you shit and put it on a platter.

抱歉，我粗俗了。

Excuse my French.

但，这就是我们正在讨论的

But, like, that That's that's what we're

这就是为什么商品价格如此具有均值回归特性。

like, that's where, like, commodities are so mean reverting.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这是一个非常好的观点。

I think I think it's a really good point.

我的意思是，多年来，加密货币一直是投机者炒作前沿概念的唯一选择。

Like, I mean, I've seen this now in in people were for for years, crypto is the only game in town for degenerate speculation on frontier ideas.

但现在你有了太多选择。

And now you have so many options.

而且其中一些最好的，没错。

And and some of the best, like Yeah.

我认识的链上加密交易者，没人再交易加密货币了，因为这个游戏被操纵了。

On chain crypto traders I know, none of them are trading on crypto anymore because the game is rigged.

你要么在和风投对抗，要么在和内部消息对抗，或者其他什么。

You're either fighting a VC or insider knowledge or what have you.

而且你甚至不知道自己在交易什么。

And and you don't even know what you're trading.

你交易的是那些没有任何资产支撑的山寨币。

You're trading these altcoins with no claims on anything.

而我可以进入公开市场，交易航天股或金属之类的资产，是的。

Whereas I can go into public markets and trade space stocks or or metals or yeah.

比如这些不同的行业，至少我知道自己玩的是什么游戏，而且它确实有真实的东西在支撑。

Like all of these different sectors and at least at least I know the game I'm playing that it actually has something real that I'm moaning.

所以，为什么我不这么做呢？

So like, why wouldn't I do that?

比特币，我觉得我们可能更接近价格底部而不是顶部，我的看法是，我们正在接近底部。

Crypt Bitcoin will like, people we're might we might be closer to the we probably I mean, we're approaching probably closer, in my opinion, to the price bottom than the top.

我认为

I think that

我有点同意这个观点。

I kind of agree with that.

黄金可以提前布局这些情况，因为黄金在动荡中反而繁荣。

Gold can front run these things because it's gold prospers in a shit storm.

我认为真正没人谈论的最明显的事情是：美联储受到特朗普干预、市场恐慌以及独立性丧失的威胁。

And I think really what's going to me, the most obvious thing that no one's talking about is, okay, there's the threats of Fed Trump influencing the Fed, the scare and the lack of independence.

但你告诉我，当真有那么一天，他让美联储像莫兰希望的那样降息时，比特币不会动吗？

But you're telling me Bitcoin's not going to move when he actually gets the Fed to be cutting like Moran wants?

你告诉我，当他完全掌控了美联储委员会，开始实施低于中性水平25、50、75甚至100个基点的降息时，比特币会像一具僵死的动物一样纹丝不动？

You're telling me when he's got the board taken over and they're doing 25, fifty, seventy five, 100 bps below neutral, you're telling me Bitcoin's just going to sit there like a limp dead animal.

不会。

No.

当这种情况真正发生，再加上可能随之而来的额外财政刺激时。

Like when that actually happens on top of additional fiscal stimulus that's likely to come.

这完全是2021年的环境重演。

That's 2021 environment all over again.

当然还会有另一天。

Like there is another day For sure.

可能不会。

Might not be

由DATs引领，但

led by DATs, but

我在这里明确看空比特币。

I'm definitely on bearish Bitcoin here.

是的，没错。

Just yeah.

你要么就得等待上涨的机会。

It's either you have to wait for the upside game.

所以，说到底，你要么就买一些现货，然后六个月别去看它。

So I mean, really what you do is you either just buy some spot and don't look at it for six months.

或者你可以尝试在其他市场进行战术性交易。

Or you go try and tactically trade other markets.

要么就是这样，要么那样，但目前战术性交易加密货币简直毫无意义，等时机到了它又会变得令人兴奋。

Like it's one or the other, but tactically trading crypto right now is just like a, it's a, it's a pointless game and it'll be exciting again.

等到时候到了，我自然会重新兴奋起来。

And then I'll be excited about it when it's time.

但与此同时，你要么就保持基础持仓，耐心等待，去做点别的事情。

But in the meantime, it's either you just like have your base allocation and wait and go do other stuff.

没错。

Exactly.

要待在那个最善待你资本的市场里。

Want to be where the, you know, be in the market that's treating your capital the best.

我觉得这些水平，看看过去三年，其实就是同样的回撤。

I do think these levels, you just look the last three years, it's really just the same drawdown.

如果你在这些33%的回撤点买入，未来十二个月内你肯定会大赚。

And if you bought these minus 33% drawdowns, you'd be printing at some point in the next twelve.

每个人都想用外汇杠杆或者买入长期看涨期权，或者玩那些疯狂衰减的结构，简直让人想把眼睛戳出来，因为亏损的衰减太严重了。

It's just everyone wants to be on like forex leverage or long calls or like crazy decaying structures that like just make you poke your eyeballs out because you're bleeding so much decay.

看看这个。

Check this out.

这让我有点紧张。

This makes me a little bit nervous.

我刚找到这张图表，第45页。

I just found this chart, slide 45.

这是两年期盈亏平衡通胀率。

This is the two year breakeven inflation.

我觉得这和石油有很大关系。

I think it has a lot to do with oil.

但美联储无法在两年后通胀飙升时放松政策。

But what the Fed can't do is ease when you're getting a spike in, you know, inflation two years out.

我认为他们确实密切关注这些指标，这大概就是为什么首次降息预计会在七月左右到来。

And I think they do watch these things quite and this is probably why the first cut is supposed to come in, like, July.

但在2025年全年，我们实际上看到两年期盈亏平衡通胀率有所下降。

But for all of 2025, we've actually seen the two year breakeven go lower.

而且，你知道，它显然与石油高度相关。

And, you know, it's it's very correlated with oil, obviously.

但如果石油价格在这里飙升，我认为这会严重打乱美联储的宽松计划。

But if oil breaks out here, I think that really puts a wrench in Fed easing plans.

所以，我猜你最终可能会采取某种收益率曲线控制措施，以抑制债券市场。

So you you're probably you're probably gonna end up with some sort of yield curve control to keep the lid on the bond market is my guess.

如果石油价格出现超级飙升，你就必须控制债券市场，疯狂印钞，并设法让沙特阿拉伯增产并释放战略石油储备。

Is it at that point, you get a super spike in oil, you gotta just contain contain the bond market and just print ungodly amounts of money and try and, you know, get Saudi Arabia to pump and release the SPR.

所以，接下来几个月我们可能就要面对这种情况。

So that's probably what we're going to head into here in the next couple

这就是我的观点。

of So this is my point.

当这种情况发生时，目前市场只是虚张声势而已。

It's like, when this happens, right now the market's It's more bark than bite.

每个人都在口头上对美联储的独立性表示担忧，但市场却明确表明并非如此。

Everyone's shitting their pants about Fed independence verbally, but the market would tell you very much otherwise.

长期利率处于控制之中，比如期货等等。

Long ends in control, know, so for futures, etcetera.

我坚信，在未来十二个月内，无论以何种方式，他们都会在通胀预期上升的情况下放松货币政策。

My belief very strongly is there will be a time that they easing monetary policy, whatever which way, into rising inflation expectations in the next twelve months.

而当他们——

And that is a point where they're-

想想这些轮动吧。

Think about those rotations.

这简直就是2021年的重演。

It's 2021 all over again.

当时通胀率达到7%，鲍威尔却上台说，我们需要降息。

It's when inflation was 7% and Powell went up there and said, We need to be cutting rate.

我们需要进行量化宽松。

We need to be doing QEs.

他们还在进行量化宽松。

And they're doing QEs still.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

所以这正在回归。

So this is coming back.

毫无疑问，它终将回归。

It's undoubtedly coming back at some point.

我认为现在是时候看看最后一部分了，因为今天确实有提到特朗普计划提名美联储主席。

Well, I think that's a good spot to look at the the last section of there is actually a Trump mentioned today that he's planning to nominate the Fed chair

下周。

next week.

这简直每周都在发生。

This, like, every week.

他每周都说，但理论上，这正是正在发生的事。

He says it every week, but, theoretically, is what's happening.

下周将宣布美联储主席人选。

Going to announce the head of the Fed next week.

无论如何，上周我们也在聊这个，节目的好朋友安迪·康斯坦特在我的一条推文下回复了他最新报告中的一张图表。

Anyway, last week we were talking about this too a little bit and Andy Constant, good buddy of the show, replied to one of my tweets with with this chart from his latest report.

我觉得这很好地帮助我们理解这里可能发生的情况，因为再次强调，如果鲍威尔留任，而库克也无法被解雇，那么在只有四位投票支持降息的委员、鲍威尔和库克都留任的情况下，任何降息决定都需要更明确的数据支持，而不仅仅是市场当前定价所预期的那样。

I thought this was just a a good way to contextualize what what could happen here because again, like we're talking about, if Powell stays on and then Cook, they can't fire her, with only four voting Doves and Powell and Cook both in place, the scenario will need clear data to support rate cuts more than priced.

要说服市场进行大幅降息，这很难。

That's a tough sell for a lot of cuts.

如果只有一人留任，比如鲍威尔因为某些原因离职，但库克留下，他们仍然可能更容易实现想要的降息。

If only one of them stays, so say Powell decides to move on because of whatever happens, but Cook stays on, they'll still probably be able to, it'll be a bit easier to get the cuts that they want to get.

但要想真正大胆地大幅降息，以应对更高的通胀，并且——要知道，我认为美元会走弱，因为全球经济正在重新加速——当美元走弱时，你再进一步降息。

But to really get, to really rip it and and cut into higher inflation and, know, say say the dollar is going lower because rest of the world economies are reaccelerating, like I, like I think they're gonna happen, lower dollar and then you cut into that lower dollar.

要想真正有底气进行比当前市场定价更多的降息，他们必须让这两个人都离开。

To really have the conviction, they got the cuts that are more than what's priced in the market right now, you need you need both of them gone.

你需要能够解雇库克，并且让鲍威尔离开。

You need to be able to fire cook and you need to be able to have Powell out of there.

所以我认为在未来几周内密切关注这一点将非常重要。

So I think it's gonna be really important to keep an eye on this over the next couple weeks.

这张图表很棒。

This is a great chart.

而且它

And it's

安迪，老兄。

Andy, man.

这位巫师。

The wizard.

我想我们会深入探讨中间这部分。

We're going to get into that middle block, I think.

我只是觉得鲍威尔想玩这个游戏，但根本没有任何空间。

I I I just don't there's I think Powell wants to play this game, but there's zero.

他根本没有理由留下来。

There's so, so little reason why he should stay.

如果是他，赶紧滚蛋吧。

Like, get the hell out of Dodge if you're him.

我只是觉得他们会把利率降下来。

I just they're going to get rates lower.

他们会把利率降下来。

They're going to get rates lower.

我的意思是，他们甚至不惜制造政府停摆，几乎篡改通胀数据来达成这个目的。

I mean, they went as far as forcing a government shutdown and nearly fudging inflation data to attempt it.

他们会这么做的。

They're going to do it.

什么？

Like, what?

这肯定会发生。

It's going to happen.

这真是个疯狂的时代，老兄。

It's wild times, man.

我们今天到处奔波。

We were all over the place today.

是的。

Yeah.

有很多事情需要思考。

A lot of stuff to think about.

有很多事情要

A lot of stuff to

思考。

think about.

很多事情

Lot a lot of stuff

要思考，这一路并非一帆风顺。

to It's think about, not without its bumps along the way.

我的意思是，你知道，肯定会有一些剧烈的波动，但他们的利率会下降。

Like, you know, there's gonna be some crazy turbulence, but they're gonna get rates lower.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

好了，各位。

Alright, gents.

又完成一个。

Another one done.

一如既往地棒。

Great as always.

周末愉快。

Have a good weekend.

周末愉快，伙计们。

Have a good weekend, boys.

注意保暖。

Stay warm.