美联储正失去宽松倾向，而人工智能支撑经济 | 尼尔·达塔

劳动力市场还行。

The labor markets are okay.

没崩盘，通胀还高于目标，股市也基本处在高位。

They're not falling apart, and inflation's above target, and the stock market's basically at highs.

如果你是央行官员，面对这三件事，你只会朝一个方向走。

So if you're a central banker and you have you're faced with those three things, there's only one direction you're gonna be pushing yourself towards.

对吧？

Right?

现在来看，美联储更该关注通胀，因为其他方面似乎没什么可权衡的。

Right now, it just makes sense for the Fed to focus more on inflation because it doesn't look like there's much of a trade off to focus on anything else.

这是我们职业生涯中见过的最大一波资本开支热潮。

This is the biggest capex boom we've seen in our careers.

如果这波热潮放缓，我们之前看到的股市上涨很可能也会跟着消失，进而影响消费支出。

If that slows down, then the equity market appreciation that we've seen also probably goes away, which will in turn have ramifications for consumer spending.

我能说的就一点：等它放缓的时候，那就是个宏观问题了。

All I can tell you is that when it slows down, that will be a macro issue.

本节目中的任何前瞻性陈述均不构成买卖任何投资产品或金融工具的建议。

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.

本播客仅供信息参考，节目中所有嘉宾的观点仅代表其个人意见，并非财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的立场。

This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.

我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队可能持有节目中讨论的公司基金或项目头寸。

Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.

和以往一样，投资区块链技术存在风险，具体条款和条件适用。

As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply.

请自行做足研究。

Do your own research.

好的。

Alright.

大家最近怎么样？

What's going on, everybody?

欢迎回到《前瞻性指引》的又一期节目。

Welcome back to another episode of Forward Guidance.

今天和我一起的嘉宾是尼尔·达塔，他是复兴宏观的经济学家，也是我最欣赏的经济学家之一。

And joining me today, Neil Dutta, one of my favorite economists out there, Renaissance Macro.

尼尔，很高兴你再次做客节目。

Neil, great to have you back on the show.

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

谢谢邀请我，费利克斯。

Thanks for having me, Felix.

再次见到你真好。

Good to see you again.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我也是。

Likewise.

感觉经典的宏观分析又开始变得重要了。

Feels like classical macro starting to matter again.

我们今天录的是5月12日，星期二。

We've got, we're, we're recording today, Tuesday, May 12.

刚公布了相当强劲的通胀数据，突然间大家又开始猜测这会把我们带向何方。

We just had a, a pretty spicy inflation print and suddenly people are starting to speculate on where that leads us.

现在是不是该重新考虑加息之类的问题了？

And, you know, is it, is it time or not to start thinking about rate hikes and all of that nature again?

接下来我们会全面聊聊这个话题，听听你是怎么想的，帮你带我们理清思路。

So we're going to get into all of it and how you're thinking about it so you can guide us through.

不过，咱们先从美联储的双重目标说起吧，但首先还是聊聊今天这份通胀数据。

But yeah, why don't we just start with, we'll dig into how this all nets out for the Fed's dual mandate, but let's just start with this inflation print that we got today.

你对这份数据的整体看法是什么？主要的结论有哪些？你是怎么解读的？

What are what's your high level takes from it, your takeaways, and how are you thinking about it?

有意思的是，你提到传统宏观分析又回来了，但我觉得今天的数据其实影响没那么大。

Well, it's interesting because you mentioned that the traditional macro matters again, but I thought what was interesting about today's data is how little it actually mattered.

其实今天利率上涨，跟通胀数据关系不大。

I mean, the reason why rates are up today has very little to do with inflation data.

我觉得主要还是受石油市场影响，中东局势推高了油价，这种压力传导到了金融市场，导致长期利率上升。

I think it has primarily a lot to do with oil markets, and we know that oil markets are, well bid because of what's going on in the Mideast, and that is releasing into the financial markets in the form of higher longer term interest rates.

而这也正是股市下跌的原因。

And that in turn is why equity markets are down.

对吧？

Right?

所以某种程度上，这真跟通胀数据没多大关系。

So in in some respects, you know, the, it doesn't really have much to do with the inflation data.

假设今天通胀数据出得温和一些，比如反过来，数字更低，你觉得长期利率会因此下降吗？

I mean, if you had a benign print on inflation today, like, let's say that was a counterfactual where the, inflation number was, somewhat more benign, do we really think that longer term rates would be down today?

不会的，因为根本原因还是油价。

No, they wouldn't be because it has primarily to do about oil.

不过话说回来，我觉得真正关键的是，过去几个月能源价格上涨，正在挤压家庭开支，这才是核心问题。

Now, when you look at the So I think, you know, for me, I think what's important, frankly, is that the rise in energy prices, that we've seen over the last couple of months is squeezing households, and I think that's the main story.

所以现在很多人在讨论实际工资正在下降的问题。

So there's a lot of discussion about how real wages are coming down.

我通常怎么看呢？就是看综合周收入指数——也就是就业人数乘以每周工作时长再乘以时薪，过去三个月这个指标一直是负的。

The way I like to look at it is basically when you look at the index of aggregate weekly perils, which as you know is the kind of sum product of jobs times the work week times hourly earnings, That's basically negative over the last three months.

这种现象非常少见。

That's a very unusual phenomenon.

这恰恰说明家庭财务状况正承受着压力。

So it kind of just speaks to this idea that household balance sheets are under pressure.

具体来看通胀数据，这次确实有点特别，主要是住房部分的影响。

Specifically, looking at the inflation data, obviously, this was a little bit quirky because, of the shelter component.

记得十月政府停摆过，当时劳工统计局把住房成本直接记为零，这个影响到四月才逐渐消除。

Remember that we had a government shutdown in October, and so, that effect, when the BLS basically assumed zero for shelter, that unwound in April.

但我认为更关键的是，今年剩下的时间里，租金大概还会继续回落。

But I think the broader story is that rents probably keep cooling through the remainder of the year.

只是回落的速度不会像之前那么快了。

They won't be cooling as fast as they had been.

但有趣的是，也有一些领域的情况稍微好一点。

But what's interesting also is that there are some areas that look a little better.

对吧？

Right?

比如跟关税有关的部分。

Like, so tariff related stuff.

对吧？

Right?

家居用品的价格是下降的。

Household furnishings were down.

确实有些因素可以提，但我认为现在这些都已经不重要了。

So there are some things you can point to, but I just don't think it matters anymore.

我的意思是，归根结底，劳动力市场还算稳定。

I mean, at the end of the day, you know, the, the labor markets are okay.

没出现崩盘，通胀还是高于目标，股市也基本处在高位。

They're not falling apart, and inflation's above target, and the stock market's basically at highs.

所以如果你是央行官员，面对这三件事，你唯一会努力的方向就很明显了。

So if you're a central banker and you have you're faced with those three things, there's only one direction you're gonna be pushing yourself towards.

对吧？

Right?

我说这很严峻，并不是说前景没有风险，或者未来情况不会变。

So I think that's really mean, that doesn't mean that the outlook isn't without risks or that things may not change later.

但如果你只看股市、失业率和通胀，而眼下金融状况和劳动力市场都没大问题，那你就只能全神贯注于通胀这一块了，而这显然不太乐观。

But, you know, if it's really just about equities, unemployment, and inflation, the fact that you don't really have to worry about, financial conditions or the labor market right now means that you all have a laser focus on the inflation piece of it, and that doesn't look good.

我想说的是，真正推动局势发展的，其实跟大家总在争论的那些CPI细枝末节关系不大。

I guess, yeah, I mean, it's a good point around what's been driving so much is really not all that closely related to just the super granular fine points of CPI data that everybody loves to debate.

就在我们开始之前，还聊过住房等价租金的事，你想想，十月份有政府停摆，现在核心CPI又跳升了。

I mean, we had a little back and forth even just before this talking a bit about owner's equivalent rent and it's like, okay, to your point, like, it's like we had this thing in October, the shutdown, and then now we're seeing this higher core CPI print.

然后大家就开始抠字眼，琢磨这个住房等价租金上涨到底意味着什么。

And then people get into the semantics of, okay, what does it actually mean to see that OER is going to go higher?

你说得对，这些细节对大局的影响远没有那些更宏观的力量来得大，但美联储还是会关注它们，因为其他方面都还说得过去。

You're right that it's like that doesn't really move the mark nearly as much as some of these bigger forces at play, but it does bring forth that just be you know, the Fed will look at these things because everything else is sort of okay.

所以当你细细推敲的时候，我觉得正如你所说，他们的政策倾向明显偏向更鹰派的方向。

So then when you go through with a with a fine tooth comb, it feels to me like, to your point, is that we're skewed to the upside in terms of their their hawkish tilt.

你还会认同这个框架吗？不管真正重要的是什么？

Like, do you still agree with that framework that regardless of really what matters?

对美联储来说，关键在于这些数据正在上升，核心CPI也在走高。

Like what matters to the Fed is that, okay, look, like these numbers are heading higher, core CPI is heading higher.

当然，整体数据还受到能源因素的影响，这进一步强化了鹰派立场。

Obviously there's the energy story on headline, and it makes for the stockish tilt.

你还是认同这个观点吗？

Like, do you still agree with that, that idea?

我不确定我同不同意有什么关系。

Well, I don't know that it matters whether I agree with it.

我的意思是，他们本来就是朝这个方向走的，对吧？

I mean, that's the direction that they're going, right?

我的工作是告诉客户，我觉得接下来会发生什么。

Job is to try to tell our clients what I think will happen.

而且我觉得，你知道，核心通胀在这里有加速的迹象吗？

And I think, you know, is core inflation accelerating here?

我的意思是，我觉得今年前三个月的情况不太好。

I mean, I think we had the first three months of the year were bad.

不过最近几个月稍微好了一点。

The last couple of months have been a bit better.

但这并不意味着情况已经好转了。

That doesn't mean that it's good.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，我觉得这才是关键所在。

I mean, so I think that's what's important.

而且我认为通胀数据的核心在于那个临界点。

And I think the inflation data, it's all about the threshold.

也就是说，通胀数据要达到什么程度，才会让美联储改变对当前局势的看法？

Like, what is the threshold that will get the Fed to think differently about the world as it is right now?

而这个门槛，这个标准已经提高了。

And that threshold, that bar has gone up.

所以即使我不觉得核心通胀真的在这里加速了，但至少相比第一季度，它也没回落到目标水平。

And so even if the like, I don't necessarily think that core inflation has accelerated here, but at least relative to q one, but that doesn't mean that it's running at target.

我觉得这最终才是关键。

And I think that's ultimately what matters.

对吧？

Right?

当你听美联储内部那些更鹰派的人说话时，他们真正关心的其实不是通胀的走势。

So when you, you know, when you listen to the the more hawkish elements on the FOMC, it's really not about, the trajectory necessarily of inflation.

当然，通胀走势多多少少还是有影响的。

I mean, of course, that matters to some extent.

但你仔细听，他们真正想表达的是什么？

But if you listen to them, what are they really saying?

通胀已经多年高于目标水平了，对吧？

It's been many years that inflation's been above target, right?

所以我觉得，某种程度上，这根本就不是关于近期的数据走向。

So, I think if you're so it's not even about the near term data flow to some extent.

我的意思是，这些数据当然重要，但可能没大家想的那么关键。

I mean, as I say, it matters, but maybe not as much as people think.

说实话，对我而言，这又回到了我们一直讨论的问题：要想有变化，就得看到经济中有某个环节出现断裂。

And, you know, look, for me, this is really we're back to where we've been, which is in order for something to change, you need to see something in the economy break.

但目前我们还没到那一步。

And we're not there yet.

所以现在谈权衡，美联储更关注通胀是合情合理的，因为根本看不出转向其他目标有什么必要，对吧？

So when we talk about the trade offs, right now it just makes sense for the Fed to focus more on inflation because it doesn't look like there's much of a trade off to focus on anything else, right?

如果失业率再次上升，或者就业数据走弱，GDP数字也低于预期，那时候讨论的重心才可能改变。

So if the unemployment rate begins to go up again or you get some weaker employment data or GDP numbers come in weaker and that begins to shift the conversation, then that's something we can talk about that.

但那目前更多还是预测，而不是现实情况。

But that's still very much a forecast more so than a present day reality.

是的，完全同意。

Yeah, yeah, 100%.

你能不能给我们更新一下劳动力市场的最新情况？因为感觉这一直是美联储评论的重点。

Catch us up on what's been going on in the labor market because it feels like that was obviously the main focus of of a lot of Fed commentary.

我知道过去六到八个月你一直密切关注这个领域。

I know you're pretty closely focused on it over the last six to eight months.

感觉我们现在进入了一个新阶段，劳动力市场的平衡点和质量都变了，导致非农数据经常很低，甚至出现负值。

It feels like, you know, we were in this new regime where just the the breakeven rate of the quality of the labor market was such that we were getting, you know, some pretty low numbers on the NFP, even some negative numbers.

这引发了很多猜测：现在的劳动力市场到底有多稳固？

And that led to a lot of speculation of like, how solid is this labor market right now?

是不是有什么地方正在崩塌？

Is is is something falling apart here?

还是说，这只是美国当前劳动力市场新形态的自然表现？

Or is it just the nature of this new regime of of a labor market that we're in in The US?

美联储又该怎么应对这种情况？

And how does the Fed react to that?

过去六到八个月，大家的讨论都偏向更宽松的立场，就是围绕这些话题展开的。

And it led to a lot of discussion over the last six to eight months that was really focused on more of those dovish inclinations.

但感觉最近我们开始意识到，其实情况也没那么糟。

But it feels like we've had this shift where suddenly we're starting to realize that, you know, things are actually pretty okay.

你之前其实也提到过这一点。

You already mentioned that in some ways.

我们很想听听，过去六个月到底发生了什么变化？为什么现在你觉得劳动力市场没那么令人担忧了？

We'd just love to hear a bit about like what happened there in the last six months and what's shifting now that you think that we don't have to worry as much about the labor market?

这个我也不敢肯定。

Well, I don't know that.

怎么说呢，相比市场普遍预期，我对就业市场可能更谨慎一些。

I mean, I guess relative to consensus, I'm probably a little bit more cautious on the job market.

但数据就是数据，它怎么说我们就怎么看。

But, you know, the data are what the data are.

我觉得现在就说劳动力市场在加速回暖还为时过早，但很明显，它至少没比三四个月前更差了。

And, you know, I think it's probably premature to say that labor market conditions are accelerating, but I think it's pretty clear that they're not getting any worse relative to where they were maybe three to six months ago.

这一点很重要。

And I think that's important.

你刚才提到了盈亏平衡点。

Now you mentioned the breakeven rate.

而且说实话，这些数据里头有很多东西真的很难琢磨清楚。

And again, there's a lot in the data that's just very hard to kind of game out.

过去六个月，非农就业人数平均每月大概在五万到六万之间。

You know, non farm payrolls over the last six months are running, like, I think, 50 to 60,000 on average per month.

但你再看家庭调查数据，情况要差得多。

And then you look at the household survey, it's a lot worse than that.

那真正的盈亏平衡点到底在哪？

So what's the real breakeven rate?

也许它就在中间某个位置。

Maybe it's somewhere in the middle.

对我来说，最能说明劳动力市场紧张的信号，费利克斯，就是工资增速在加快。

You know, for me, I think it's you know, the surest sign of a tight job market, Felix, is accelerating wage growth.

明白吗？

Okay?

对我来说，如果你想讨论美联储真的偏向鹰派，那最可能的表现就是工资增长开始加速。

I mean, that to me is if you wanna talk about the Fed really kind of leaning into a hawkish bias, I think that's how it would happen is that wage growth would begin to perk up.

幸运的是，我们目前并没有看到太多这方面的迹象。

And, you know, fortunately, we're not really seeing much evidence of that.

所以工资增长仍然相当缓慢。

So wage growth is still quite sluggish.

如果你看平均时薪，一般来说，大概在百分之三点五左右。

If you look at average hourly earnings, you know, generally speaking, they're running, like, around three and a half percent.

如果你看就业成本指数，也差不多是这个水平。

You know, if you look at the employment cost index, it's kind of in that ballpark.

所以我不会说劳动力市场很紧张，这大概就是我最主要的看法。

So I wouldn't say that labor market conditions are tight, but and I think that to me is probably the main conviction I have.

我还想说，积极的一面是，就业的覆盖面明显扩大了，对吧？

I would also say that, you know, on the plus side, the breadth of employment has clearly improved, right?

六个月前，我们还在说，整个增长就靠医疗行业，别无他选。

I mean, six months ago, we were talking about, well, the entire thing is health care and that's it.

不过，你也看到劳动力市场整体上有所扩张。

But, you know, you've seen some broadening out of the labor market, growth.

我觉得特别值得注意的是，非住宅建筑领域的贡献非常强劲。

And I think what's been really notable is just how strong the contribution has been from, you know, the nonresidential construction piece.

对吧？

Right?

你看非住宅建筑，确实在增长。

So when you look at nonresidential building, it's up.

再看非住宅专业承包商，也在上升。

If you look at nonresidential specialty trade contractors, they're up.

还有重型和土木工程建筑，也在上涨。

If you look at heavy and civil engineering construction, it's up.

涨得还挺明显的。

It's up quite a bit.

也就是说，除了医疗行业之外，工资数据的加速增长很大程度上要归功于这些领域。

I mean, that's responsible for a lot of the acceleration in the payroll data outside of healthcare.

所以我觉得，数据中心的建设在一定程度上为就业带来了推动作用。

So I think it's one of these areas where the data center build out is providing a tailwind to employment to some extent.

在制造业中，这种影响虽然弱一些，但也看得出来。

And you see it to a lesser degree in manufacturing.

但对我来说，最值得注意的，还是商品生产领域中某些细分行业的明显反弹。

But that's, to me what's been the most notable is this kind of rebound in sort of specific areas of goods producing employment.

你说得很有道理，这让我忍不住想了很多。

I think you bring up a good point, which just has me reflecting that.

就连鲍威尔上次或上上次的记者会上，也被问到这个问题，就是在这个不断出现供应链冲击的世界里，你怎么去应对或预测经济？这些冲击有时是正面的，但大多数时候都是负面的。

I mean, even Powell got asked about this, I think, in his last press conference or the one before about just, you know, how do you manage or forecast the economy in this world where we just get these rolling supply shocks, whether, you know, positive, they've been mostly negative.

你先是遇到关税问题，接着又是政府停摆。

But, you know, you've had the tariff thing, then you've had these government shutdowns.

现在又加上伊朗局势紧张、能源市场动荡这些地缘政治风险。

And then now we have geopolitical risks in Iran war, energy shock.

说实话，我也不太清楚。

Like, I don't know.

我简直难以想象，现在想搞清楚数据里到底哪些是真话有多难。

I just imagine it's a frigging nightmare to try to understand even like what's what's true in the data these days.

所以，你提到的工资增长确实是其中一个关键的可靠指标。

So, I mean, obviously, you mentioned wage growth is one of those true factors that you look at.

但我很好奇，在这么多突如其来的异常冲击下，你还会看哪些指标来弄清实际情况？

But I'm curious, like, what else do you look at to figure out what the hell's going on despite all these idiosyncratic shocks that keep happening?

说实话，我总是试着拿自己的判断和市场共识做对比，因为客户付我钱，很大程度上就是希望我能做到这一点。

Well, I mean, I, you know, for me, I think I'm always trying to benchmark myself relative to consensus because I think that's ultimately why clients pay me to the extent that that happens.

但认真说，根本没人会跑来问我：你觉得今年GDP会怎么走？

But in all seriousness, I mean, it's really about no one's going around asking me, like, what do you think GDP is gonna do this year?

对吧？

Right?

大家关心的，始终是你的观点跟共识有多接近。

Like, it's all about benchmarking to consensus.

所以年初的时候，就像你知道的，大家对经济重新加速增长都特别乐观。

And so going into the year, there was a lot of enthusiasm, as you know, for, like, the growth reacceleration story.

不过呢，得看你说的‘重新加速’到底指的是什么。

Now, when, you know, it depends what you have, what you mean by reacceleration.

实际上，实体经济的增速并没有明显加快，对吧？

Like, there's not much of a reacceleration in real economic activity, right?

你看过去两个季度，剔除联邦政府支出后的GDP，大概就在1%到1.5%之间徘徊。

Like, if you look at the last two quarters and you just look at GDP net of federal government, it's running about one of one and a half percent.

去年第四季度GDP偏弱，是因为政府停摆，而今年第一季度只是把这部分补回来了。

So you had a weaker GDP in q four because of the shutdown, and that kind of, unwound in q one.

现在回头看，我们手头还有不少调查数据可以参考。

And if you look at where we are right now, you have survey data to kind of go on.

比如说，ISM的数据现在怎么样？

Like, what is, like, the ISM data?

市场PMI指标又传递了什么信号？

What is the market PMI numbers telling us?

还有NFIB的小企业调查，最近有什么变化？

What is, you know, NFIB small business?

如果经济真的在加速，你难道不觉得商业情绪应该有更明显的回升吗？

You know, if things were really accelerating, wouldn't you see expect to see business sentiment be rising in a more appreciable way?

但实际情况并不是这样。

That's not actually happening.

对吧？

Right?

所以，一个简单的判断方法就是，看看这些综合的PMI数据，能推算出GDP增长大概是什么水平。

So, you know, a simple rule of thumb is trying to take, like, some of these composite PMI data points and kind of, you know, what does this imply for GDP growth?

目前来看，大概在2%以下。

It's something it's slightly below 2%.

所以，从实际经济活动的数据来看，我确实没看到明显的加速迹象。

So, you know, I don't see much of an acceleration in the data, at least in terms of real economic activity.

不过，正如我们之前说的，通胀确实有上升，但那并不是大家年初时真正期待的那种加速。

Now, there's been an acceleration, as we talked about earlier, in inflation, but that's not the kind of acceleration people are really, talking about when, when we were going into the year.

当时大家对退税抱有很大期待，觉得能带动消费之类的。

There was this sort of enthusiasm around tax refunds, and that's gonna get spending going and so forth.

而且我觉得，消费者支出的风险平衡正在一点点变得更糟。

And, you know, I think the balance of risk around consumer spending is probably getting a little bit worse at the margin.

他们的钱是花出去了，

I mean, are spending dollars.

但没真买到多少东西。

They're not necessarily getting stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我想深入聊聊消费者现状，毕竟油价一个月翻倍，汽油价格涨到这个地步，关键问题是：普通家庭到底能扛多久？

I want to double click on that into the state of the consumer because when you get oil double in a month and gasoline going where it's at right now, the big question is, okay, how much buffer can the average consumer weather of this sort of situation?

你刚才提到，收入其实是在下滑的。

And going into that, like you mentioned that incomes have been coming lower.

看起来支出还凑合，但绝对谈不上强劲。

It seems like, you know, spending has been pretty okay, but but, you know, definitely not strong.

这就引出了一个问题，也就是储蓄率最终会落在什么位置，以及这能为应对像能源价格大幅波动这样的冲击提供多大的缓冲空间。

And then that brings forth the question of where that nets out in terms of a savings rate and then how much buffer does that provide to something like a pretty substantial energy shock.

我很想知道你是怎么计算这个平衡点的，以及当你考虑到汽油价格近期翻倍等情况时，你是怎么看待这个问题的。

And I'm curious how you net that and how you think about when you just add in, yeah, doubling of gasoline or whatever it got to recently.

我觉得首先要搞清楚我们现在的处境，因为关于消费者实际有多强劲，市面上存在很多误导性的说法。

Well, I mean, I think it's important to just kind of think about first, like, where you are, because there's a lot of this in my there's a lot of like misrepresentation around how strong the consumer actually is.

比如，看到某个数据点，就觉得……哦，看这个指标。

Like, get, you know, oh, look at this data point.

其实挺强劲的。

It's, like, really strong.

你看那个数据指标。

You know, look at that data point.

确实很强。

It's really strong.

消费者信心指数出现了惊人的反弹。

You know, consumer confidence rebounded miraculously.

如果你看整体的GDP数据，再看看过去一年左右商品的名义消费支出，就看名义值。

When you look at, like, the aggregate, like, sort of GDP data and you look at just nominal spending on goods over the last, you know, year or so, just nominal.

对吧？

Right?

如果你看商品的名义消费，过去一年大概涨了百分之三点五。

Like, if you look at nominal goods consumption, it's up about three and a half percent over the last year.

这是名义上的增长。

That's nominal.

这是价格乘以数量的结果。

That's price times quantity.

这并不理想。

That is not great.

我的意思是，商品领域出现这样的结果并不算好。

I mean, you know, that is not a good outcome for goods.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以我觉得，当我们谈论物价上涨时，得明白这并不是由需求拉动的通胀，对吧？

So I think people need to think about, like, what kind of when we talk about, like, price inflation, like, this is not demand driven price inflation, right?

这主要是由供应冲击造成的。

This is a function of supply shocks primarily.

我觉得，对家庭部门来说，名义支出的基准其实并不牢固。

Like, so the nominal spending anchor, I think, for the household sector is not particularly strong.

这大概就是我想表达的主要观点。

Like, so that's, I think, my main point.

如果你看过去两个季度的实际消费支出，实际增速已经低于2%了。

When you look at real consumer spending over the last two quarters, it's it's running below 2% in real terms.

我们现在就是这个情况。

That's where we are right now.

对吧？

Right?

那为什么有人觉得，尽管油价上涨，经济反而会加速呢？

So what's the argument that, oh, despite higher oil prices, we're gonna accelerate into that?

这听起来有点荒谬。

I mean, it seems a little ridiculous.

我们不如从最基本的原则开始思考。

So I think think it's like, like, let's think about first principles.

过去两个季度，实际消费基本上一直低于2%，而且名义收入增长也疲软。

And, you know, real consumption is basically running slightly below two over the last two quarters, and we have weaker income growth in nominal terms.

再加上这次价格冲击，实际收入肯定会受到挤压，进而抑制消费支出。

And we have a price shock on top of that, which means that real incomes are going to get squeezed, which in turn should weigh on consumer spending.

也许人们在动用一些储蓄缓冲。

Now, might be drawing down some of their buffers.

但现在的储蓄规模，已经不像几年前疫情时期那样充裕了。

Now, they don't have as much of that as they did maybe a few years ago when we still had this sort of pandemic era excess savings.

而且，这种状态也不可能无限持续下去。

And, yeah, I mean, there's a limit to how how long that can go.

而且价格在这些水平上维持得越久，人们就越会觉得这是永久性的，从而不得不重新调整他们已经消耗掉的储蓄。

And the more that prices stick around at these levels, the more people begin to believe that it's permanent, in which case they have to readjust their savings, which they've drawn down.

一旦发生这种情况，就会拖累消费支出。

And when that happens, it'll weigh on consumer spending.

所以我也说不准。

So I don't know.

我觉得吧，我们总在说市场已经反映了增长放缓的预期。

I feel like, you know, we talk about, you know, have the markets feel priced in a growth shock.

说实话，这现在几乎成了套话。

Like, I don't know that I mean, that's sort of the standard boilerplate right now.

我们确实已经把通胀冲击算进去了。

It's like we've priced in the inflation shock.

但增长放缓的冲击还没被定价。

We haven't priced in the growth shock.

不过说实话，我不确定这到底对不对，因为如果你看看一篮子消费类公司的表现，情况并不乐观。

Again, like, I don't know whether that's actually accurate because if you look at a basket of consumer companies, it doesn't look good.

你去看看住宅建筑类股票的走势图。

I mean, pull up a chart of homebuilding stocks.

情况糟透了。

It looks like horrible.

家居建材零售商的走势也不乐观。

Home improvement retailers don't look good.

就像XRT指数，对吧？

Like the XRT, right?

零售业的ETF表现也不怎么样。

Like the retail ETF doesn't look good.

很明显，市场正在逐渐押注消费支出正在放缓。

So there's clearly the markets are pressing a little bit into this idea that consumer spending is slowing.

我觉得这当然很重要，对政策制定者来说尤其如此，因为如果人们买得少了，企业就没必要生产那么多东西。

And I think obviously that matters, I think, for policymakers because if people are buying less stuff, that means that businesses don't need to produce as much.

如果生产需求下降，对劳动力的需求也不太可能像以前那么强劲。

And if they don't need to produce as much, their labor demand shouldn't be as strong as it's been.

所以我就这么说。

So it just that's what I say.

这种热情其实更多是账面价值的反映。

Like, lot of this enthusiasm I mean, it's just a mark to market.

我不觉得我们已经摆脱困境了，或者类似的情况。

I wouldn't say that, you know, we're out of the woods or anything like that.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

完全正确。

A 100%.

这让我想到，消费者实力的分布其实很值得思考，因为这马上会引出那个被反复讨论的K型经济问题。

It does bring up I wonder a lot about the distribution of that consumer strength because, you know, it quickly brings up the question of this whole K shaped economy thing that's been talked endlessly about.

但我很好奇，你怎么看这个观点：K型的底部，也就是我们刚才说的那部分，才是真正挣扎的群体。

And but I am curious about what your thoughts are on the premise that, look, the the lower shape the lower part of the K is the one that's really struggling, which we just talked about.

但K形的上半部分，你知道，股票每周都创历史新高。

But the upper side of the K, you know, stocks are at all time high every single week.

只要股市保持高位，K形的上半部分就会持续消费，支撑经济，让实际消费保持强劲。

And as long as equities are high, that upper quadrant K is going to keep spending and keep the economy afloat and keep real consumer spending pretty solid.

你是怎么看待这个观点的？

Like, how do you think about that premise?

说到底，经济学也是一样。

I mean, it's like anything else with with economics.

你把两个经济学家关在一间屋子里，大概能听到六种不同的看法。

You put two economists in a room, you're likely to get like six opinions on the matter.

我觉得明尼阿波利斯联储做过一项研究，这个特别值得跟观众分享，他们系统梳理了关于K形经济的各种文献，用了好多不同数据源。

You know, look, the the, I believe the Minneapolis Fed, and, you know, this this would be great to share with your viewers, they did a whole, like, survey of the literature of, you know, the K shaped story, looking at all different data sources.

结果呢，其实并没有定论。

And lo and behold, it's sort of inconclusive.

数据并不完全支持K形分化这个说法。

It doesn't really show Like, some data sources do show a K-shaped.

其他一些数据源则看不到这种现象。

Other data sources, you don't see that.

所以我能理解，为什么大家会觉得这是真的，毕竟股市这么高。

So, I mean, it makes sense to me why people would think that because the stock markets are high.

我的看法是，眼下数据中很可能存在一个非常明显的股市财富效应。

All I would say, I mean, view is that there is probably a very strong equity market wealth effect going on in the data right now.

如果你看过去一年的实际可支配收入增长，大概也就1%左右，甚至可能更低。

If you look at disposable income growth over the last year, it's basically been about, you know, maybe 1% in real terms, if not a little lower than that.

而实际消费则维持在2%上下。

And, and real consumption's been around two.

这就出现了一个缺口。

So there's a gap.

所以，我们的储蓄率正在下降。

So we, you know, the savings rates being drawn down.

储蓄率下降的一个原因，可能是人们把资产当作一种低风险的收入替代来源，因此愿意从中花钱。

One reason why it might be getting drawn down is because people look at their wealth, as a sort of low risk form of, income substitution, and so they spend out of it.

所以我觉得这确实是个风险。

And so I think that that's a risk.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这种现象很容易被现在那些分析GDP增长、讨论AI对经济拉动作用的人忽略掉。

I mean, that's and that to me is something that goes, like, sort of undetected by these sort of, like, GDP accounting things that people are doing lately around, like, what is the tailwind from AI to the economy?

也许AI带来的实际增长没大家想的那么大，因为很多增长其实是靠进口设备、芯片这些东西拉动的。

Oh, maybe it's not as much as people think because a lot of the growth leaks are brought in the form of imported equipment and chips and things like that.

但这种说法却忽略了AI对企业盈利的巨大推动，以及随之而来的股市上涨，尤其是在美国。

But that kind of ignores the the huge boon this has been for corporate earnings and, in turn, equity market prices, particularly in The US.

而这种影响会部分传导到消费支出，也在一定程度上支撑了州政府的财政收入。

And that flows through, to some extent, into consumer spending and, to a lesser extent, into state government finances.

你看看加州的情况就知道了——那里几家科技公司一旦限制性股票期权行权，就会直接计入个人所得税的预扣基数。

Like, look at what's going on in California because you have a handful of tech companies that are, you know, whenever the restricted stock units vest, that counts towards the income tax withholding tables, right?

所以这实际上在给州政府财政输血，反过来又维持了经济增长的势头。

So that's juicing state government finances, which is in turn keeping that driver of growth afloat.

对吧？

Right?

所以它的影响远不止这些简单的GDP核算方式那么简单。

So it has a lot of kind of I think it has far reaching implications beyond just you know, these sort of simple, you know, these sort of GDP accounting things.

是的。

Mhmm.

没错。

It just yeah.

我觉得这正在形成一种全新的正向循环。

I mean, it feels like there's just this emerging new flywheel of sorts.

简单来说，是股市带动经济，还是经济带动股市？

You know, maybe one simple way to put it is is the stock market the economy or does the or or vice versa?

因为我们现在说的这种循环就是，经济增长强劲，主要是因为AI数据中心建设带来了巨额投资。

Because you have this flywheel that we're kind of hinting at right now, which is that growth is strong because there's just this huge amount of investment coming in for the AI data center build out.

而这也推高了股价，如果你认同这种逻辑的话。

And then that leads to, you know, higher equity prices, higher max seven prices, if you believe in that line of thinking.

更高的股价让消费者觉得自己更富有了，尽管大部分财富其实都体现在股票上。

And then therefore higher equity prices means that consumers feel good about their wealth, even though a lot of it is in equities.

于是他们继续花钱。

And then they go and keep spending.

只要AI数据中心的建设还在继续，这个循环就会一直维持下去。

And, you know, the circle just continues as long as this AI data center build out occurs.

而数据中心的建设也推高了GDP中的投资部分。

And then, you know, that data center build out is leading to a higher investment component in GDP.

同时还创造了大量建设相关的工作岗位。

And it's also leading to jobs for the build out of it.

我听说现在水管工是最抢手的职业，全是因为数据中心建设需求太大了。

You know, I heard that like plumbers are the most sought after jobs right now because of all the need for that for data centers.

那你怎么看这个良性循环呢？

Yeah, just how do you think about that flywheel?

这算是一种新现象，还是说本来就是世界运转的常态？

It feels like, is that a new thing or is that just, you know, kind of how the world works?

不，我的意思是，我这辈子从来没见过这么大规模的资本开支热潮，这比90年代末的情况还要夸张得多。

No, mean, it's something I've never, I mean, this is the biggest CapEx boom we've seen in our careers, This goes beyond what we saw in the late 90s.

所以我觉得这很重要。

So I think it matters.

说实话，我也不知道这波热潮什么时候会结束，我不是搞AI数据中心的专家。

I mean, look, I have no idea when this I'm not an AI data center expert.

我只能告诉你，一旦这波增长放缓，就会变成一个宏观问题。

I mean, all I can tell you is that when it slows down, that will be a macro issue.

这一点我毫不怀疑。

There's no doubt about it in my mind.

而且我还觉得，有些人被这种想法迷惑了，觉得‘哦，反正也就只给GDP添了半个点而已’。

And there's also, and I think I think to the extent that, you know, people are being seduced by this idea that, oh, well, you know, it's only adding half a point to GDP.

所以等它停下来，也不会有什么大不了的。

Therefore, when it goes away, it's not going to be that big of a deal.

不，这种说法我完全不信。

No, like, don't I don't believe that for a second.

我的意思是，如果这放缓了，我们之前看到的股市上涨也很可能随之消失，进而影响到消费支出和其他方面。

I mean, you know, it's because if that slows down, then the equity market appreciation that we've seen also probably goes away, which will in turn have ramifications for consumer spending and the rest of it.

这有点像说——虽然不完全一样——住宅投资只占GDP的6%，但很多增长都外流了，因为我们得进口大量石膏板和木材，所以对GDP的拉动没那么大。

So it's almost like saying, I mean, this isn't exactly the same thing, but it's like saying, well, residential investment is 6% of GDP, but a lot of the growth leaks abroad because we have to import all the drywall and lumber And in so maybe it's not as big of a juice to GDP.

但话说回来，这在很大程度上本来就是推动消费和信贷增长的动力，对吧？

Of course, that was also what was driving consumer spending and credit to a large extent, right?

这其实有点像一个金融加速器的模式。

It's sort of a financial accelerator type model.

我觉得这些影响完全可以用简单的GDP核算恒等式来解释。

And I think those things can be well captured by kind of simple GDP accounting identities.

所以我对这个问题更担心一些。

So I'm a little bit more concerned about it.

我知道有人会说，如果没有AI，我们早就陷入衰退了。

I mean, I think, you know, people do make the argument that in the absence of AI, we'd be in recession.

我不觉得有这么夸张。

I wouldn't go that far.

但我们真能说，如果没有AI，经济增长会一样吗？

But are we really trying to argue that in the absence of AI growth would be the same?

当然不可能。

Like, of course not.

那会弱得多。

It would be a lot weaker.

会更弱。

It would be weaker.

如果你说利率会更低，所以房地产会更好，那你觉得这对整体增长意味着什么？

And I think that I mean and that's if you're saying interest rates would be lower and that's why housing would be better, like, what do you think that means in the aggregate than for for growth?

很明显，实际经济表现会因此更疲软。

Obviously, real would be softer as a result.

所以我觉得，一旦这股势头放缓，就会变成一个宏观问题。

So I think when this thing, you know, slows down, I think it's going be a macro issue.

至于这什么时候发生，我也没法预测。

And, you know, I don't have any insight as to when that might happen.

但你知道，超大规模云服务商的资本支出增速，明年肯定不会像今年这么快了。

But, you know, certainly, like the growth rate of hyperscaler CapEx isn't going to be rising as quickly next year as it as it is this year.

所以，这一点未来值得好好想想。

So, you know, that's something to think about going forward.

是的。

Yeah.

说到这个，再看看这些因素怎么影响GDP里那些不太常规的部分，尤其是进出口。上周贸易数据出来的时候，我仔细看了下，发现进口猛增，明显跟AI有关，大量进口芯片嘛。

On that note of how these dynamics affect the funkier components of GDP, especially export and imports, it feels was just looking at the balance of trade data last week when it came out and it's just really interesting to see, okay, imports are surging because it's related to the whole AI thing and bringing in chips.

另一方面，出口也在飙升，这似乎跟伊朗局势和能源冲击有关——现在美国石油出口对全世界来说突然变得更有吸引力了。

And on the other side as well is that exports are surging, and it seems like that is also related to the Iran war and and the energy shock where suddenly that US oil exports are are a lot more attractive to the to the rest of the world right now.

所以，眼下这两股力量似乎都在同时起作用。

And so you have these two levers, it feels like, that are going on.

我很好奇，你是怎么看这个情况的？

And it's just, yeah, I'm curious how you think about that.

因为现在很容易只盯着消费和投资这两个GDP组成部分，咱们节目之前也一直这么聊，但眼下进出口这边其实正发生着一些非常不寻常的事。

Because it could be tempting to just, you know, really focus on, I mean, like we've been doing in the show already, on the consumer side and the investment side of GDP, but there are some really wild things happening, it feels like right now in the import and export components.

我很好奇你怎么看这个问题。

So curious how you think about that.

嗯，这确实挺有意思的。

Well, I mean, well, it's interesting.

政府一直大力宣传我们出口了更多能源，还说这就像一支庞大的船队源源不断驶向墨西哥湾。

I mean, the administration has been touting a lot about the fact that we're exporting more energy and why that's, think called it like a giant conga line of a flotilla of ships coming to The Gulf.

石油是全球性商品，我们出口越多，对美国消费者未必是好事，因为这会缩小WTI和布伦特原油之间的价差。

The extent that oil is a globally traded commodity, it's not necessarily the best thing for US consumers that we're exporting more oil because obviously that will close the gap between WTI benchmark and Brent crude prices.

对吧？

Right?

如果我们成了边际出口国，那就意味着油价会上涨，这显然不是什么好事。

So then if we're the marginal exporter, then that means that prices are going higher, and that's not necessarily the best thing.

所以，我不觉得美国能源出口增加是件好事。

So I don't necessarily view the rise in energy exports out of The US as a good thing.

我觉得这反映了很多国家的无奈，因为他们没法从传统渠道——比如中东和霍尔木兹海峡——获得石油了。

I think it's a sign of desperation on the part of a lot of countries because they can't get the oil from their traditional sources, you know, which is through the Middle East, the Strait Of Hormuz.

对吧？

Right?

所以我不会把这当成好事，而这最终会以更高的油价形式回到美国，把消费者的钱转给了石油生产商。

So I wouldn't characterize it as a good thing, and that's coming back to The US in the form of, higher gas prices, which, you know, rotates money, away from US consumers to oil producers.

当然，这个问题在于，在理想情况下，这些钱本该很快循环起来，对吧？

And and the and the problem, of course, with this is, you know, in a perfect world, the money would kind of recycle very rapidly, right?

比如你多花在油钱上，能源公司马上就开始钻井，一切都很完美。

Like, would, you know, you spend more at the pump, and then the energy company starts drilling wells right away, and so it's all good.

但显然，现实世界并不是这样的。

But obviously, that does not happen in the real world.

我的意思是，如果你看看能源公司的资本支出计划，依然相当保守。

I mean, if anything, you know, capital spending intentions for, you know, if you look at energy companies, still pretty muted.

他们现在的资本管控比十年前严格多了。

I mean, they have a lot more capital discipline now than they did maybe ten years ago.

所以真正承受痛苦的是消费者，而生产商的回报却要等到很久以后。

And so really the pain is felt by consumers upfront and the payoff from the producers is something that's further out in the future.