美联储被困，油价推高通胀 | 每周回顾

我认为我们现在所处的环境，许多宏观因素将受到中东战争局势的影响。

Think that we're in a in a place where a lot of the macro is gonna be driven by what's happening with the war in The Middle East.

随着事态持续，我认为这会对全球经济造成真正的危机。

So as this goes on, I think it's a real crisis for the global economy.

我认为这使得全球衰退变得非常、非常可能。

I think it makes a global recession very, very probable.

因此，这种负面冲击使货币政策变得困难。

So this negative shock, I think, makes monetary policy difficult.

利率远高于零，所以我不会指望美联储。

Rates are very far above zero, so I wouldn't look to the Fed.

我们可能获得更多流动性的来源是商业银行。

Where we could get more liquidity is from the commercial banks.

除非劳动力市场出现显著恶化，否则你可能会看到美联储至少需要暂停六个月的行动。

You're kind of looking at, like, a minimum sort of six month pause on Fed action unless you get a very significant deterioration in the labor market.

所以这对我来说，给风险资产的价格和估值倍数设定了上限。

So what this kind of does to me is put a lid on risk asset prices and multiples.

是的，我觉得政策制定者某种程度上被困住了。

Yeah, I kind of think policymakers are trapped in a way.

我们总是倾向于提前预想结局，因为每一次危机最终都以严重的货币贬值和印钞事件收场。

We always have a tendency to fast forward the end result because every single crisis has ended with a great debasement and printing event.

每一次危机也都需要某种灾难性的情境才能让我们走到那一步。

Each one also takes some sort of catastrophic circumstance to get us there.

感觉事情正朝着错误的方向发展，但我很好奇，你们觉得在十一月之前还有足够的时间来扭转局势吗？

Feels like things are going in the the wrong way, but I do wonder, like, you guys feel like there is enough runway to steer this ship around before November?

没有。

No.

关于前瞻指引的任何言论均不构成购买或出售任何投资或产品的建议。

Nothing said on forward guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.

本播客仅用于信息目的，节目中任何人的观点均为其个人意见，并非财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的观点。

This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.

我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队可能持有节目中讨论的公司基金或项目头寸。

Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.

一如既往，投资区块链技术涉及风险，条款和条件适用。

As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply.

自行做研究。

Do your own research.

好的。

All right.

大家下午好。

Afternoon, everybody.

欢迎来到下午的前瞻性指引环节。

Welcome to the afternoon forward guidance track.

这是我们首次举办专门的前瞻性指引环节。

This is the first time that we've done one of these dedicated forward guidance tracks.

因此，这将是了解宏观与加密货币交汇点所有内容的一站式平台。

So this is gonna be the one stop shop for all things at the intersection of macro and crypto.

我们今天下午的安排非常充实。

We've got a jam packed afternoon ahead of us here.

首先来个前瞻指引汇总。

Starting things off with a forward guidance roundup.

非常高兴能与我的另一位汇总主持人共同出席，他们是Lecquer Capital的Quinn Thompson和Monetary Macro的Joseph Wang，他经常参加这类活动。

Super excited to be joined by my fellow roundup co hosts, Quinn Thompson of Lecquer Capital and Joseph Wang of Monetary Macro, who is a a regular participant on these.

所以，是的，我们先从这个开始。

So, yeah, we'll start with that.

正如我所说，今天下午的安排非常充实，我特别期待下午即将进行的嘉宾对话——我将与美联储理事斯蒂芬·莫兰进行一场 Cornerstone 火炉边谈话，时间就在下午4点左右。

We have a jam packed afternoon, like I said, is super excited for the upcoming guest with a with a Cornerstone fireside chat that I'll be having this afternoon with the Federal Reserve Governor, Stephen Moran, right here around 04:00.

所以，是的，咱们赶紧开始吧，各位。

So, yeah, let's let's get this thing started here, guys.

Felix，到目前为止会议很不错。

Good conference so far, Felix.

干得漂亮。

Nice work.

作为Blockworks新任内容负责人，我想说，这无疑是迄今为止规模最大的DAS了，看来你确实做得很棒。

As the newly appointed head of content at Blockworks, I'd say, you know, it's the largest DAS yet, so you've got to be doing something right.

恭喜。

Congratulations.

这位朋友，你们可能看不到，但这场会议真的非常棒。

This guy I know you guys can't see it, but this has been an awesome conference.

我们请到了非常出色的演讲者。

We have really awesome speakers.

正如菲利克斯提到的，稍后还会有美联储理事登场。

And as Felix mentioned, sitting Fed governor coming on later as well.

这场会议真是太棒了。

So this has been an amazing conference.

恭喜大家。

Congratulations, guys.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢大家。

Thanks, guys.

看到你们来回讨论，真的非常有趣。

It's, it's been really interesting to see you know, there's been talking back and forth.

实际上，我们现在正在和坐在观众席上的詹姆斯·塞弗尔交谈，他是彭博社的。

Actually, we're just talking with, James Safer who's in the crowd on Bloomberg.

他谈到了当前市场，尤其是加密行业中的二元性：机构群体有多么兴奋，而零售群体又有多么——我不想说完全沮丧——两者之间的这种差异。

He's talking about the the dichotomy in in markets right now, especially in the crypto industry between how excited the institutional crowd is versus how, I don't wanna say fully depressed the retail crowd is and just that distinction.

但当你在这里时，这确实是真的，我们正创下这场会议的销售纪录，而詹姆斯也在谈论ETF领域正在发生的事情。

But it really is true when you're here and, you know, we're hitting these record sales of this conference and, you know, James is talking about what's going on in the ETF side of things.

现在有太多事情在发生。

There's a lot going on.

所以我们现在会更深入地探讨这个交汇点，但我想先从宏观形势的共识开始。

So we'll we'll get a lot more into that intersection right now, but I do wanna just start off with level setting on how we're all thinking about the macro situation.

最近当然有说不完的话题。

Definitely no shortage of things to talk about these days.

约瑟夫，我们先从你开始吧？

Joseph, why don't we start with you?

你目前对宏观形势怎么看？

How are you thinking about your current macro outlook right now?

我认为，我们现在所处的阶段，许多宏观因素将受到中东战争局势的直接影响，尤其是通过推高能源价格。

Well, I think it's we're in a, in a place where a lot of the macro is going to be driven by what's happening with the war in The Middle East That affects us directly most directly through high energy prices.

对吧？

Right?

布伦特原油价格现在大约在每桶100美元左右。

So Brent is around a $100.

价格一直在飙升，而这场战争如果持续更久，价格还可能进一步上涨。

It's been surging, and depending on how long this war can go on, it could go even higher.

据我从能源分析师那里听到的，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭是一个非常严重的场景。

From what I hear from energy analysts, the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz is something that is a very severe scenario.

正如我们都知道的，全球约20%的原油通过这条海峡运输。

As we all know, about 20% of the world's crude flows through that.

此外，还有天然气、化肥以及其他相关产品。

In addition, you have natural gas, fertilizers and other things as well.

因此，随着事态持续，我认为这会对全球经济造成真正的危机。

So as this goes on, I think it's a real crisis for the global economy.

我认为这使得全球衰退变得非常、非常可能。

I think it makes a global recession very, very probable.

至于事态如何发展，很难说清楚。

And how that goes on, it's it's hard to know.

桌上有三方参与，各方利益和立场不同，因此这是一个难以解决的问题。

You have three people at the table, so how that and everyone has their different interests, their different perspectives, so it's it's a difficult problem to solve.

所以，我想先澄清一下，在这场事件发生前，美国劳动力市场似乎正在走弱。

So I would just level set by saying that heading into this event, it would seem to me that The US labor market was weakening.

我们看到失业率持续上升。

We had unemployment rate that was steadily rising.

上一份报告中出现了显著的岗位流失，因此我们的状况并不强劲。

We had job losses, notable job losses on their last report, so we were not in a very strong position.

当然，GDP增长也被下调了。

And of course, GDP growth that was revised lower.

因此，这种负面冲击我认为使货币政策变得困难。

So this negative shock, I think makes monetary policy difficult.

我认为它给全球经济带来了巨大的下行风险，并正在波及各个市场。

And I think it creates a lot of downside risk to the global economy and is rippling through markets.

例如，我们在利率上就能看到这一点。

We see it in rates, for example.

目前市场已部分定价了美联储加息的可能性，股市下跌，美元走强。

Now there is some probability of Fed hikes being priced in, equities have declined, the dollar has strengthened.

这是一幅混乱的图景。

It's a messy picture.

奎因，你脑子里在想什么？

Quinn, what's going on in your head?

是的。

Yeah.

你们如果留意的话，过去几周早就知道我的立场了。

You guys, if you pay attention, have known for the last bunch of weeks where I stand.

所以我尽量避免重复之前说过的内容。

And so I try not to regurgitate anything.

其中一个最有趣的点是，过去几周我做了一些研究，考察了历史上在失业、经济放缓以及其他促使美联储介入以支持流动性和市场的情况下的降息周期和美联储干预。

Probably one of the most interesting points, I was doing some research over the last few weeks on historical cutting cycles and Fed intervention during periods of, job losses, economic slowdowns, other catalysts that would instigate the Fed to step in to support liquidity and markets.

过去曾出现过类似的能源危机和油价飙升。

There is precedent for these energy crises and oil price spikes in the past.

你通常不会看到在这些情况下加息，这令人惊讶，因为当前市场实际上仍定价了某种程度的加息预期，这完全逆转了过去十二个月的市场共识——即特朗普将主导美联储、削弱其独立性，并无论好坏都强制推行降息。

You tend to not see hikes into them, which is surprising because the market currently is actually pricing in some level of expectation of hike, is complete reversal from market consensus over the last twelve months that Trump was gonna command the Federal Reserve and, you know, overtake its independence and and enforce cuts with or without good reason.

但我猜我们今天下午会了解更多关于这一策略的信息。

But I guess we'll learn more today and this afternoon about that strategy.

但2001年和2008年确实有过先例，对于熟悉市场的人来说，这些时期显然不是持有风险资产的好时机。

But there is precedent in 2001 and 2008, actually, which don't strike anyone who's familiar with markets as reasonably good times to be owning risk assets.

当联邦基金利率降至2.5%至3%左右，而通胀仍处于2%至3%左右的水平时，你就已经接近中性利率了。

And when you get down to this kind of 2.5% to 3% level in the federal funds rate, when inflation is running in the two to three ish range, you're kind of at neutral.

而在那种情况下，进一步降息的触发因素通常是连续四到八个月出现严重的负就业增长。

And the the the catalyst needed for further Fed rate cuts in those times tended to be about four to eight months of severely negative job losses.

所以想象一下每月超过五万个岗位流失。

So think like over 50,000 jobs losses per month.

在股市方面，从高点到美联储开始进一步采取紧急降息措施时，跌幅大约在20%到40%之间。

On the equity market side, anywhere from 20 to 40% from peak to where they started taking that additional emergency leg down lower in rates.

所以我认为，无论哪种情况，今年都会非常动荡。

So we're set up either way, I think for a pretty eventful year.

即使你放眼远超一个月期的波动率指数，乃至三个月和六个月的隐含波动率，我也认为波动性在短期内不会降温。

I don't think volatility is gonna cool down anytime soon if you go out even beyond front month volatility indices and implied vols even on a three and six month basis.

这其实是一个缓慢而稳定的稳步上升过程。

It's really a just slow and steady grind up.

所以如果你看看这些图表，它们并没有显示出任何缓解或不确定性减弱的迹象——相反，随着海峡持续关闭，约瑟夫提到的对全球经济的拖累持续存在，我认为这种不确定性正与日俱增。

So if you look at those charts, they don't say anything to point to de escalation or calming of the uncertainty that's, I would say, increasing day by day as the strait stays closed and this drag that Joseph mentioned on the global economy persists.

所以是的，我认为今年整体投资股市是非常糟糕的决定。

So yeah, I I think it's a very bad year to be invested in the stock market as a whole.

某些领域，比如能源、大宗商品和农业，我认为表现会不错，但总体而言，对于那些仅仅持有标普500指数（其中40%是七巨头股票）的人来说，前景相当不明朗。

There will be pockets, energy, commodities, agriculture that I think do well, but overall, it's it's dicey for people who just own S and P five hundred, which is 40% Mag seven stocks.

是的。

Yeah.

在过去几周里，让我感到特别有趣的是，再次认识到中央银行应对石油冲击或这种供给侧冲击是多么困难，我不知道该说它们‘准备不足’，但确实面临巨大挑战。

I feel like something that's been really interesting to me over the last couple of weeks is just once again, learning the lesson of how, I don't know if I wanna say ill equipped, but how difficult it is for central banks to react to something like an oil shock, a supply side shock of that nature.

而如今，我们又一次陷入这种局面，尤其是那些单一目标的中央银行——除了美联储之外，比如欧洲央行，有趣的是，这些也正是受伊朗局势及其影响最直接的经济体的中央银行。

And once again, here we are in another one of these situations and especially single mandate central banks, you know, basically ex federal reserve, you know, you look at the ECB and those ones, and interestingly enough, those are also the central banks of the economies that are the most acutely affected by the Iran war and what's going on there.

其中许多央行，比如欧洲央行，由于只专注于单一目标，正在预期大幅降息。

And a lot of them, you know, it's like the ECB for example, is pricing in a lot of cuts because they only have that single mandate.

它们没有像美联储那样的双重目标——即最大就业和物价稳定。

They don't have the dual mandate of maximum unemployment.

它们仅以通胀目标为唯一准则。

They're just solely at the discretion of inflation targeting.

因此，当出现石油或供给侧冲击的初期时，它们会迅速加息，但随后必须面对一个关键问题：何时该转向降息？

So, you know, as you get one of these initial shocks of oil, of a supply side shock, they basically ramp up their hikes, but then comes forth the follow-up discussion that needs to be had of when does that flip, right?

而这里最难的部分就在于，要理解这种高企状态究竟会持续多久。

That's the whole hard part here of trying to understand how long is all gonna stay elevated.

因为如果这些水平维持足够长的时间，你确实会开始看到对经济增长前景的负面影响发生逆转。

Because if it stays elevated at these levels for long enough, you do start to see the flip in terms of its negative growth prospects.

约瑟夫，我想知道你是怎么看待这个问题的。

Joseph, I'm curious how you're thinking about that.

我们之前谈到过，目前这些央行所定价的短期利率走势可能严重偏离了实际状况。

You know, were talking earlier about just how potentially offside the short end of the curve is right now in terms of the hikes price in some of these central banks.

正如你提到的，全球前端市场已经出现了巨大的动荡。

So like you mentioned, there's been tremendous carnage in the front end across the world.

例如，在英国，由于石油冲击，你可能现在正看到几次加息，这很大程度上是因为，正如你所说，费利克斯，英国央行和欧洲央行都是单一目标的央行，因此当油价上涨时，它们会做出反应。

It's been particularly pronounced in The UK, for example, where you're now probably seeing a few rate hikes due to the oil shock, and that's largely due to, like you mentioned, Felix, the the Bank of England and the ECB are single mandate central banks, and so they see oil prices go up and they're reacting to it.

在美国，情况则不同。

In The US, it's a diff it's different.

正如你提到的，美联储是双重目标的央行，既要实现充分就业，又要保持价格稳定。

Like you mentioned, there's there's a dual mandate central bank, full employment, price stability.

正如昆恩提到的，美联储会忽略这些能源价格冲击。

Now, like Quinn mentioned, the Fed would look through these energy price shocks.

我们过去也遇到过这种情况。

So we've had them in the past.

在2003年伊拉克战争期间，能源价格曾出现大幅飙升。

In the two thousand and three Iraq invasion, we had a tremendous surge in energy prices.

当时美联储选择忽略这一冲击，而‘忽略’并不意味着一定会降息，而是指不会加息。

The Fed at that time looked through it, and looking through it means not necessarily that they will be cutting, but that they wouldn't hike.

当时我们仍在从互联网泡沫破裂中恢复，经济相当疲软。

At that time, we were still coming off the .com bust, so the economy was quite weak.

因此，当时美联储选择忽略能源冲击，在对局势有了更明确的判断后，开始大幅降息。

So at that time, the Fed looked through the energy shock and began, once they had more certainty as to the situation, began to cut pretty aggressively.

这是正确的决定，因为军事行动开始后，油价迅速暴跌，所以选择忽略是正确的。

And that was the right call because after the military action commenced, oil prices basically imploded very quickly, so it was right to look through it.

上世纪90年代初的‘沙漠风暴’行动也出现过类似情况，油价大幅上涨，但美联储选择忽略，而油价冲击只是暂时的。

Similar thing happened in the early 1990s, Operation Desert Storm, tremendous surge in oil prices, Fed looked through that, and then the oil price shock was temporary.

因此，一种看待这个问题的方式是：这大部分属于央行基础常识，货币政策具有滞后性。

So one way to think about this is that if you're most of this is Central Banking 101, monetary policy acts with a lag.

所以，假设你关注能源价格并对此作出反应，但你对利率所做的任何调整可能要等到十二个月后才会真正影响经济。

And so let's say that you look at energy prices, you react to it, maybe whatever you do with interest rates doesn't really affect the economy until say twelve months later.

而到那时，这场石油冲击可能已经结束了。

And so by that time, maybe this whole oil shock shing would be over.

因此，这是他们不愿作出反应的原因之一。

And so that's one of the reasons why they wouldn't react.

所以，你在市场上看到的情况是，人们实际上在定价时已经考虑了一定程度的加息可能性，这在我看来非常不可能，也让我感到惊讶。

So what you see in the market where you're actually pricing in some degree of some probability of hikes, I think it's very unlikely and surprising to me.

我认为，市场是在听到沃勒理事的评论后开始将这种预期纳入定价的。

My sense is that the market began to price this in after hearing comments from governor Waller.

沃勒理事在CNBC上接受了一次采访，他表示，如果能源冲击持续时间长且稳定，他就无法忽视它。

So governor Waller was on CNBC, and he did an interview suggesting that, you know, you he can't look past look through energy shocks if it's long and sustained.

因此，他暗示美联储可能不得不为此采取行动，但我认为这种情况发生的概率很低。

And so suggesting that maybe the Fed would have to act on behalf of that, I think that's a low probability thing.

但这种观点似乎正在推高短期收益率。

But it is a perspective that that seems to be driving yields higher in the front end.

我个人认为，我的观察是，前端定价通常与股市价格紧密相关。

I personally would think that my observation is that oftentimes pricing in the front end is closely linked to the equity prices.

因此，如果我们继续看到股市下跌，我认为市场会更加关注增长问题，正如费利克斯所指出的那样，并开始预期美联储受其就业目标的制约。

So if we would continue to have declines in the equity markets, I think the market will begin to focus more on growth, as Felix noted, and will begin to price in the Fed being constrained by its employment mandate.

因此，随着局势发展，今年可能会有几次降息。

And so probably get a few cuts this year, actually, as the situation unfolds.

奎恩，你怎么看？

What do you think about that, Quinn?

是的，我倾向于同意。

Yeah, I tend to agree.

我认为，无论这场战争何时平息，我之前提到的一个关键观点是，当前风险资产正处在一个负收益环境中，因为每一天，市场上许多人或许还在庆祝特朗普为促成停火谈判而推迟的五天，但事实上，这五天意味着霍尔木兹海峡仍处于关闭状态，每一天的拖延都会给全球经济、给那些石油和天然气短缺的亚洲和欧洲国家带来更大的问题。

I think regardless of how soon the war subsides, one of the biggest points I was speaking about this, I view there being a negative carry environment on risk assets here, because every day, many in the market maybe celebrated this five day delay that Trump enacted to negotiate a potential cease fire, but in reality, that's five additional days that the strait is not open, and every day that goes by creates a bigger and bigger problem for the global economy, for Asian and European countries who are short oil and gas.

我认为，即便今天就结束，你仍然会面临未来两到三个月的通胀数据，这些数据将显示通胀居高不下，从而阻止美联储提前降息。

I think regardless, if this ends today, you still have two to three months of inflation prints beyond today that show elevated inflation that will prohibit preemptive interest rate cuts.

此外，美联储的反应是滞后的，因为通胀数据有一个月的延迟，而美联储的会议又在数据公布之后才举行。

And on top of that, the Fed is delayed, so they meet, you know, the inflation reports are month delayed and the Fed meets after that.

所以，除非劳动力市场出现显著恶化，否则你基本上是在预期美联储至少会暂停六个月的行动。

So you're kind of looking at like a minimum sort of six month pause on Fed action, unless you get a very significant deterioration in the labor market.

因此，这对我来说意味着给风险资产的价格和估值倍数以及风险溢价设定了上限，因为即使没有战争，流动性状况也已经非常严峻，而这基本上束缚了美联储更前瞻性介入的能力。

So what this does to me is put a lid on risk asset prices and multiples and risk premiums, because the liquidity picture is just very dire without the war, and this basically puts handcuffs on the Fed Fed's ability to to step in more preemptively.

因此，依我之见，无论他们今年晚些时候采取什么措施，都注定会滞后于支持经济增长和资产价格的时机。

And so kind of by definition, in my view, they will be late to supporting growth and asset prices in whatever they do later this year.

我认为这种对央行反应的描述非常到位，因为我一直在思考地缘政治冲击下货币的表现。

I think that framing is great around what central banks are reacting, because I've been thinking a lot about how currencies have been acting in light of this geopolitical shock.

你知道，大西洋一侧是美国，它主要依赖能源且拥有储备货币地位，而另一侧则是众多对伊朗局势更为敏感的国家。

You know, if you have on one side of the Atlantic Ocean, The US, which is largely energy dependent and a reserve currency, and then on the other side of the Atlantic, you have all these countries that are much more acutely exposed to what's going on in Iran.

基于这两个因素，我认为我们应当会看到美元继续走强。

My assumption with those two vectors is that I feel like we would see, and we should see a continued dollar rally.

而当你将这一点与过去六个月市场的主流叙事对比时，你会发现，当时的大趋势是货币贬值交易，黄金等贵金属价格飙升。

And when you compare that to where the market has been for the last six months, you know, the big narrative has been the debasement trade, and we've seen precious metals rally like crazy.

你知道，很多人希望比特币也能加入这场涨势，但至今并未明显表现出来，我想知道你们如何看待这一头寸的演变——之前大家普遍认为美元会持续缓慢走弱，无休止地下跌。

You know, I think a lot of people hope Bitcoin would join that rally and haven't seen it as so much, but I'm curious how you all are thinking about that positioning leading up into it, where it just felt like everybody was assuming the dollar would just continue to grind lower, bleed lower endlessly.

但如今，当我看到美元走强的这些潜在顺风时，我觉得这对许多押注于货币贬值的人而言是一个艰难的环境，因为他们的仓位已经完全建立在贬值预期之上。

But now when I look at these potential tailwinds in terms of dollar higher, I feel like it's it's a tough environment for a lot of those people, a lot of that positioning that's all baked into this idea of of debasement.

这种情况似乎可能逆转。

It feels like it can reverse.

而且我们已经看到，黄金下跌了30%。

And you know, we've seen that, like gold is down 30%.

比特币相对而言表现得相当稳健，但我很好奇你们如何看待这种敞口，以及它如何应对这些货币变化。

Bitcoin's been honestly holding up quite well relatively, but I'm curious how you guys are thinking about that exposure and how it reacts to these changes in currencies.

是的，关于这一点，实际上几周前在一月底，我们讨论金属行情时，让我感到非常有趣的一点是，黄金波动率飙升到了仅在2020年3月新冠疫情和2008年全球金融危机期间才见过的水平。

Yeah, just on that one, actually couple weeks ago in late Jan, when we were talking about the metals run-in the podcast, one of the things that just struck me as very interesting was the gold volatility rose to a level only seen in March 2020 COVID and two thousand and eight GFC.

黄金波动率之高，以至于除了灾难性的经济危机之外，从未见过如此水平。

The level of gold volatility was such that it had never been seen outside of a catastrophic economic crisis.

而你坐在那里，一切看起来都挺正常的，对吧？

And you're sitting there and everything seems fine, right?

当时是1月，金属的经济加速交易是主流叙事，行情火热，所有这些情况都在发生。

As it was January, metals are Economic reacceleration trade was the narrative and run it hot, all these things.

你看着这一切，心想：天啊，这真是太罕见了。

And you're looking at this, you're like, man, this is such a rarity.

我不得不相信它。

I kind of have to trust it.

我们之前讨论过，而转眼两个月过去，现在看来，一场更广泛的经济危机的要素正在酝酿。

We've talked about like, and, you know, here we are fast forward two months and it looks like there's the ingredients brewing for, for a broader economic crisis.

这说明了一点，也与黄金之前的走势相符，那就是它有能力提前反应。

So what that kind of says, and it jives with previous moves in gold is that it has the ability to front run.

它是唯一一种能够真正提前规避因人们极度恐慌、寻找储藏财富和价值之地而引发的灾难性后果的资产。

It's kind of the only asset that can actually front run the, the carnage due to, you know, people like very spooked and looking for a place to, to put their, their store of wealth and value.

但与此同时，还有一种普遍共识，即抛售美元、抵制贬值，于是全球国际股市都被推高了。

But then, you know, alongside that was sort of this, you know, sell America dollar debasement devaluation kind of consensus idea as everyone bid up global international equities.

我们还提到过，彻底逆转这种交易头寸的一个绝佳方式，就是发动一场战争，让全世界各国都依赖你的武器、保护和防御来维持其主权。

And one of the things we also mentioned was what's one phenomenal way to basically reverse positioning of that trade is start a war where every country in the world, you know, relies on your weaponry and protection and defense to, sustain their sovereigns.

而事实正是如此，随后出现了一次大规模的抛售。

And and that's kinda what happened and and saw a big flush.

至于黄金，如果你仔细想想，过去一年乃至多年里，真正为黄金的牛市趋势奠定底部的最大的黄金积累者，是各国央行、主权机构以及那些担心货币贬值的人。

And gold for that matter, you know, if you think about it, the largest accumulators of gold over the last year, multi years that have really set the floor beneath the bullish trend have been central banks, sovereigns, and people sort of afraid of currency debasement.

但当战争爆发时，情况就逆转了——这变成了一场对稀缺资源的争夺，你几乎必须卖出黄金和法币，去囤积能源、农产品、粮食等，以保障本国人民的需求。

Flip that on its head when you have a war, it becomes a struggle and fight for scarce resources, and you almost basically need to sell your gold and fiat to accumulate energy, agricultural commodities, food, etcetera, for your for your population.

此外，美元走强还带来了机械性的反向资金流动。

And on top of that, you had the mechanical inverse flows from the dollar rising.

因此，这形成了一场完美风暴，使得原本过度拥挤、以散户为主的金属交易头寸遭受了重创。

So it was kind of a perfect storm that set up for an over position kind of retail heavy crowded metals trade to get rents.

但从长期来看，我们都清楚这场风暴之后会发生什么。

But secularly, we all know what comes on the other side of this.

我认为，从多年周期来看，金属交易还远未结束。

I don't think the metals trade is over from a multi year basis.

当我想到货币时，我认为有几个主要驱动因素。

So when I think of currencies, I think you have a few drivers.

第一，当然是短期利率差异。

One, of course, is differences in short term interest differentials.

在这方面，就像费利克斯之前提到的，非美元汇率的反应要强烈得多，因为它们的央行是单一目标制。

Now on that end, like Felix mentioned earlier, you have a much stronger reaction in non dollar rates because they are single mandate central banks.

这本应导致美元走弱。

That would have argued for a weaker dollar.

但与此同时，你还看到了巨大的避险资金流入，我认为这股力量整体上压倒了其他所有因素，使美元走强。

But you have also this huge flight to safety flow that I think on net is overpowering everything and making the dollar stronger.

所以我们学到的是，例如，如果你在中东有很多资金，那些大型金融中心，你知道，把资金放在美国比放在那里更安全。

So what we've learned, for example, if you have a lot of capital in The Middle East, those large financial centers there, you know, it's not as safe as having it in The US.

如果你在欧洲有资金，嗯，那里边境仍有一场战争，而且如果这场能源危机持续下去，他们的经济增长前景非常糟糕。

And if you have capital in Europe, well, they still have a war on the frontier there, and they have pretty bad growth prospects if this energy crisis continues.

所以我认为美国正受益于这些大量的避险资金流入。

So I think US is benefiting with a lot of these safe inflows.

现在，黄金也确实让我感到惊讶。

Now, gold really is surprising to me too.

我认为我同意昆恩的观点，很多原因是因为市场上存在大量投机和动量交易。

I think I agree with Quinn, I think a lot of it is because there was a lot of speculation and momentum in it.

我原本以为，如果有地缘政治风险，黄金表现会更好，但黄金实际上与股市走势高度一致，表现得像一种风险资产，这告诉我，背后有大量的投机资金流入，也许当他们在投资组合的其他部分亏损时，不得不通过出售黄金来筹集流动性。

I would have expected if you had geopolitical risk that gold would do better, but gold is really much trading in line with equity, so it's trading like a risk asset, and that tells me that it is because there is a lot of speculative flows into it, and maybe as they have losses in their other poor parts of their portfolio, they may have to raise liquidity by selling their gold.

我想换个话题，谈谈金融体系正在发生的各种变化，从美联储的动态开始，这些变化如何影响银行监管，又如何波及数字资产行业，比如《天才法案》和《清晰法案》的进展。

I want to shift gears here and talk a bit about some of the evolving landscape of changes in terms of the financial system, starting with what's been going on at the Fed and how that's trickles down into banking regulations, how that trickles into the digital asset industry of what's going on with the Genius Act and the Clarity Act.

因为感觉现在有许多有趣的交叉力量正在汇聚，其中一些已经获得批准，比如《天才法案》已经立法，而另一些如《清晰法案》则尚未通过。

Cause it feels like there's a lot of very interesting crosscurrents coming here together that are, you know, some of it approved, you know, Genius Act is in law, others like Clarity Act are not.

我们还看到美联储方面持续的进展，特别是在银行去监管方面。

We're also seeing continued developments on the Federal Reserve side of things in terms of bank deregulation and what's going on there.

我们已经看到了‘精简主账户’的推出，这使得更多机构能够在无需提供准备金利息的情况下，获得对美联储支付系统的更多接入权限。

We've seen the introduction of skinny master accounts, which are allowing more further access to the Fed wire system without being able to, without the necessity to offer things like interest on reserve balances.

所以，当你把所有这些因素结合起来，再考虑到凯文·沃尔什被提名为美联储主席，这一切就显得意味深长。

So it just feels like you pair all that together, and then you have what's coming in of Kevin Walsh being nominated to become the chair of the Federal Reserve.

在我看来，我们正缓慢步入一场重大制度变革，如果你回顾2008年之后的情况，那时银行监管非常严格，商业银行一直在挣扎，你得费尽力气才能让他们开始放贷。

And it just feels to me like we're slowly walking into a major regime change over the next, you know, if you just think about what's been going on post eight, where we've had heavy bank regulation, commercial banks have just, you know, been fighting, you know, you have to fight tooth and nail to get them to start loaning.

因此，美联储曾是唯一的玩家，但现在，去监管的趋势正在兴起。

So the Fed has been really the only game in town, but now you're starting to get deregulation.

你开始看到数字资产支付网络在支付系统中的进一步创新应用。

You're starting to see further innovation in terms of use of digital asset rails within that whole payments network.

我很好奇，也许可以请在座曾任职于纽约联储的约瑟夫谈谈，你是如何看待整个网络的演变，以及你从中获得了哪些洞察？

I'm just curious, maybe starting with the ex Fed Bank of New York in the room here, Joseph, of how you're thinking about the evolution of that entire network and how you're deriving an insight from it.

这看起来像是一个很好的恢复过程。

It looks like it's a great restoration.

你正试图将金融体系恢复到金融危机之前的状态。

You're trying to restore the financial system to what it was before the great financial crisis.

在金融危机之前，正如所说，金融市场的规模很小，银行的规模则大得多。

So before the great financial crisis, as said, was very small, very small footprint in the financial markets, the banks were much larger.

因此，银行受到的监管较少，更容易创造信贷、参与市场运作，从事诸如做市等大量活动。

So banks were less like less more likely regulated, and so they were more easily able to create credit to make markets to participate in a lot of things that yeah, market making and so forth.

现在，他们的一项重大计划似乎是让凯文·沃尔什入主，试图适度缩减美联储的资产负债表。

Now, one of their grand plans, it seems, is for Kevin Walsh to go in and try to slim down the Fed's balance sheet a little bit.

随着美联储退出，他们将需要商业银行接替美联储的角色，继续为市场提供流动性。

Now as the Fed retreats, they're going to need the commercial banks to step in and take the Fed's place to continue to provide liquidity into the market.

因此，这是通过放松银行监管来实现的。

And so that's being done by loosening bank regulations.

因此，我们最近听到了很多这方面的新闻。

So we've been hearing a lot of news to that end.

如果你看一下银行业在过去几个月内实际发放的贷款和租赁，它们确实显著增长了。

And if you look at the actual loan ins and leases created by the banking sector, they really have grown significantly over the past few months.

因此，银行信贷创造正在激增。

So you do have bank credit creation surging.

其中一部分，你必须平衡的是，私人信贷领域似乎出现了收缩，因为那里存在一些问题。

Part of that, you have to balance that by it seems like you have some contraction in the private credit sector, since they have some problems there.

但我认为整体计划是，他们也称之为重新私有化金融体系，正如贝松部长所描述的那样。

But I think the overall plan is to I think they describe it as well, Secretary Besson describe it as reprivatizing the financial system.

因此，他们将让银行介入并更积极地提供流动性，相应地缩小美联储的作用。

So they're going to basically make banks step in and be more active in providing liquidity, and and that should, correspondingly shrink the Fed's role.

我认为这可以促成一个更具活力和更健康的市场，而像稳定币和GeniusSAS这样的工具也可能对此起到补充作用。

I think that can make for a more dynamic and healthier market, and maybe things like the stablecoin and GeniusSAS could supplement that as well.

大家好。

Hey all.

我是Blockworks的联合创始人迈克尔·拉波利托。

Blockworks co founder Michael Lapolito here.

短暂休息一下，聊聊我们刚刚推出的Blockworks投资者关系服务。

Quick break to talk about something we've just launched, Blockworks Investor Relations.

随着市场向机构资本转变，投资者希望获得更多的透明度、标准化和更高水平的专业性。

As the market shifts toward institutional capital, investors want more transparency, more standardization, and a higher level of professionalism.

但传统的投资者关系模式缓慢、手动，且不适应加密货币的运作方式。

But the traditional IR model is slow, manual, and not built for how crypto works.

如果你在链上构建业务，你的数据已经是实时的，你的业务也已经是透明的，挑战在于将这些转化为清晰可信的投资者故事。

If you're building on chain, your data is already live, your business is already transparent, The challenge is turning that into a clear, credible story for investors.

这正是Blockworks IR要解决的问题。

That's exactly what we're solving with Blockworks IR.

它是一个单一平台，整合了实时分析、品牌化投资者门户和一对一的咨询服务，帮助你传达真正重要的信息。

It's a single platform that brings together real time analytics, branded investor portals, and hands on advisory support so you can communicate what matters.

如果你是一家链上企业，希望提升你的投资者策略，请访问 blockworks.com/investor-relations 了解 Blockworks 投资者关系服务。

If you're an on chain business looking to level up your investor strategy, check out Blockworks Investor Relations at blockworks.com/investor-relations.

在你下单交易之前，你应该知道究竟是谁在推动市场。

Before you place a trade, you should know who is actually moving the market.

这就是 Arkham 的用武之地。

That's where Arkham comes in.

Arkham 是一个加密货币情报平台和交易所，让你看到真实的链上数据——哪些钱包在买入、卖出和转移资金，并直接基于这些信息进行交易。

Arkham is a crypto intelligence platform and exchange that lets you see real on chain data, which wallets are buying, selling, and moving funds, and then trade directly on that information.

Arkham 的设计初衷是让区块链变得易于理解，而不是呈现原始的交易数据。

Arkham was built to make blockchains human readable instead of raw transaction data.

你会获得清晰的档案、可视化工具和自定义仪表板，揭示表象之下的真实动态。

You get clear profiles, visualizers, and custom dashboards that show what's really happening beneath the surface.

追踪钱包和资金流动，正变得与技术分析或基本面分析同等重要。

Tracking wallets and fund flows is becoming just as important as technical or fundamental analysis.

链上情报也是交易者防范黑客攻击、跑路和诈骗的最有效工具之一。

On chain intelligence is also one of the best tools traders have to protect themselves against hacks, rugs, and scams.

通过 Arkham 交易所，你可以在一个平台上从洞察直接执行交易，这是全球首个由加密货币智能驱动的交易所。

With Arkham Exchange, you can go from insight to execution in one place, the world's first exchange powered by crypto intelligence.

访问 Arkham，前往 arkham.com 开始基于真实链上数据的交易。

Check out Arkham and start trading with real on chain insight at arkham.com.

你如何看待这一点，

How do you think about that,

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，当前货币和财政政策中最被低估的方面之一，就是收益率曲线极度平坦的不均衡状态。

Think probably one of the most, underappreciated aspects of current monetary and fiscal policy is the sort of unevenness in the the record, low steepness levels of of the yield curve.

历史上，十年期国债减去两年期国债的利差一直保持显著的正斜率。

So, historically the two's, ten year minus two year yield has a very positive slope.

但就在过去一年，我们刚刚转为正值，这对银行业来说是一个巨大的负面信号。

We just recently over the last year went positive, which is a huge negative for the banking sector.

造成这一现象的一个重要原因是，在应对新冠疫情时，美联储显然将利率降至零，并大幅扩张了资产负债表。

A big reason for that was during COVID response, obviously Fed cut rates to zero and then expanded their balance sheet tremendously.

然后在2022年和2023年，他们逆转了这一趋势，停止了资产负债表的扩张，同时大幅加息。

And then when they reversed that through 2022, 2023, they unwound They kept the balance sheet support and basically hiked rates.

这导致了2024年中小企业陷入衰退，这也是纳斯达克和科技股相对于小盘股大幅跑赢的原因之一。

And what that did was started a recession in 2024 for small and medium sized businesses, and hence one of the reasons why Nasdaq and tech have so drastically outperformed small caps.

过去几年，这种政策造成了巨大的不平等和财富差距扩大，贝森特及其团队对此非常清楚。

It's caused this huge inequality and wealth gap to expand over the past few years, Bessent and team are well aware of this.

正如约瑟夫所说，他们的政策是缩减美联储的资产负债表、减少其市场影响、逐步减持资产——这一过程在鲍威尔任内已经启动，目的是缩短资产负债表的久期，从而让长期收益率上升，自然形成一种缓冲机制，减缓经济和财政支出的增速，之后再降低短期利率，更好地支持主街经济。

And their policy is to shrink, as Joseph said, the Fed balance sheet, their footprint, unwind holdings, that process has already started under Powell to reduce the duration of the balance sheet, and then that allows long end yields to rise, and then kind of puts a natural governor and slow down on the economy and fiscal spending, and then you can lower the front end interest rates and help Main Street more.

我目前对这一政策调整最大的担忧是油价飙升，这使得美联储暂停了这一再平衡进程。

The biggest concern I have in just that policy adjustment at the moment is that oil price spike that has put the Fed on hold kind of pauses that rebalancing.

他也用过类似的说法，比如货币政策的某种大规模再平衡。

Think he uses a word like that as well, like some sort of great rebalancing of monetary policy.

因此，长期收益率已经上升，但由于油价飙升，短期利率却未能下降。

And so long end yields have risen, but because of the oil price spike, you haven't gotten the front end to go down.

所以我认为，约瑟夫，你提到了这一点，但我担心我们可能尚未充分意识到的经济增长放缓会持续下去，而真正需要美联储降息来发挥作用，以持续平滑经济的重新加速。

So I think, Joseph, you mentioned it but concerned with a growth slowdown here that we might not have been exposed to over the last few years to continue, and you really need the Fed rate cuts to come into effect to keep smoothing the economic reacceleration back out.

我认为让市场感到震惊的一件事是，当沃什被提名时，人们开始审视他的一些历史观点，其中一些

I think one thing that really freaked out a lot of the market was when Warsh was nominated and folks are going through some of his historical opinions and some

包括已经持续数月表现疲软的天然气市场。

of them include the gas market that has been struggling for many months now.

我的意思是，纳斯达克指数自十月以来基本处于横盘震荡，所有人都屏息以待，试图弄清楚下一轮边际流动性潮会从何而来？

I mean, the NASDAQ, the Qs have been just chopping sideways basically since October and everybody's just holding their breath, trying to figure out, okay, where does the next marginal liquidity boom come from?

到目前为止，我认为我们还没有在舞台上发现任何这样的来源，但这种担忧持续存在。

And so far, I don't think we've identified any of them yet on the stage, but there is this continued concern.

所以我很好奇，也许从你开始，约瑟夫，要实现这种边际流动性状况的改善，需要什么条件？或者你认为潜在的突破口在哪里？毕竟，比特币就在场内，指数已经横盘六个月，七巨头实际上在这期间还出现了显著下跌。

And so I'm just curious, maybe it's starting with you, Joseph, what would it take or where do you see the potential for the first lever to come for any sort of marginal improvement to that liquidity situation when you have, you know, Bitcoin on the floor, the indices have been chopping sideways for six months, the mag sevens have actually been bleeding underneath that quite significantly.

我们究竟在哪里能看到这种改善的可能，

Where do we see that even coming from,

如果有的话？

if at all?

首先，

First off,

我认为这不会来自美联储。

I don't think it will come from the Fed.

美联储看待这个问题的方式是，在进行资产负债表操作之前，会先使用主要工具，即短期利率。

So the way that the Fed looks at this is that before you go into balance sheet operations, you start with your main tool, which is short term interest rates.

因此，当短期利率降至零且无其他选择时，才会开始释放资产负债表操作。

So first, when short term interest rates are cut to zero and you have nowhere else to go, then you start unleashing the balance sheet operations.

而目前利率远高于零，所以我不会指望美联储。

And right now, rates are very far above zero, so I wouldn't look to the Fed.

我们可能获得更多流动性的来源是商业银行。

Where we could get more liquidity is from the commercial banks.

就像你之前提到的，菲利克斯，银行去监管一直在持续进行。

Like you mentioned earlier, Felix, there's been an ongoing effort for bank deregulation.

看起来拟议的巴塞尔最终方案也将提供一些资本缓解。

It looks like the proposed Basel endgame is going to also offer some capital relief as well.

我们已经看到银行在扩大资产负债表、创造信贷。

And we have been seeing banks expand their balance sheet in creating credit.

所以无论这些资金是否流向加密货币或其他资产，这种情况都在发生。

So so that is happening whether or not that flows to crypto or other assets.

这一点很难确定，但我认为银行系统正在创造比过去更多的流动性，而这部分可能是放松监管努力的成果。

Now that's that's hard to know, but I think the banking system really is creating more liquidity than than it has been in the past, and part of it could be the bearing of fruit of the deregulation efforts.

是的。

Yeah.

政策调整的另一面是减少美联储的影响力，缩短其资产负债表期限，使经济更加私有化并实现更高效的资本配置，这会导致庞氏骗局和由流动性驱动的零售资产表现不佳。

The the other side of the policy adjustment to reduce the Fed's footprint and reduce the duration of its balance sheet and make the economy more privatized and run with efficient capital allocation is that the Ponzi schemes and liquidity driven retail assets don't perform as well.

我们已经看到这种情况持续了数月。

We've seen that for many months now.

正如你所说，费利克斯，我不太清楚近期会有什么重大催化剂。

As you said, Felix, I don't really know what the big catalyst would be in the near term.

我认为，能让这一市场部分表现良好的最乐观情景，是出现一个短期的波动事件，比如比我们此前经历的更剧烈的清算或崩盘式下跌，从而促使政策制定者更快地介入并提供流动性支持。

I would say the most bullish picture I could paint for that part of the market to do well would be an immediate term volatility event that is a large liquidation or of crashier type of decline than what we've seen that would instigate more rapid policymaker intervention and liquidity support.

但即便如此，考虑到当前的通胀前景，这是否真的会有帮助也不确定。

But it's not even clear that that would be that helpful given the inflation outlook at the moment.

所以，我觉得政策制定者某种程度上被困住了，我们总是倾向于提前预想最终结果，因为每一次危机最终都以严重的货币贬值和印钞事件收场，但每一次也都需要某种灾难性的、通常是意想不到的情况才能推动我们走到那一步。

So, I kind of think policymakers are trapped in a way, and we always have a tendency to fast forward the end result because every single crisis has ended with a great monetary debasement and printing event, but each one also takes some sort of catastrophic, usually unforeseen circumstance to get us there.

也许正是新冠疫情改变了这种条件反射式的反应模式，因为疫情来得如此短暂，政府决定全面封锁，然后立即采取应对措施。

And maybe it was COVID that really altered that Pavlovian reaction function because it was so short that the government decided to shut everything down, and then they also decided to respond immediately.

而以往的银行危机、储蓄与贷款危机等过去事件，响应都要慢得多，但现在看来，反应速度似乎变得越来越快。

Whereas, you know, previous banking crises, savings, thrift, savings and loan crises, like previous events were much more delayed response, but it seems like it's gotten quicker and quicker.

因此，尚待观察的是，更糟糕的美联储和贝桑财政部在紧急应对措施上会处于何种位置。

So it remains to be seen where a worse Fed and a Besant Treasury kind of sits in terms of their emergency response measures.

还有另一件事，我们也可能面临财政扩张，对吧？

One other thing, we could also have fiscal expansion, right?

这也是一种持续存在的推动力。

That's also an ongoing provider.

我们可能需要某种重大事件来推动它发生，就像你提到的那样。

We're probably going to need some kind of big event to get that going, like you mentioned.

此外，取决于中期选举的结果，明年和后年这可能会变得更加困难。

And also, depending on how midterm elections play out, that may become more difficult next year and the year after.

这似乎很难。

So that seems to be difficult.

我也很难看到大规模的财政行动，尽管这确实是另一条途径。

It's hard for me to see big fiscal action either, though that that is another avenue.

是的。

Yeah.

我正想说，财政方面的举措被严重低估了。

Was just about to say, I feel like the fiscal one is understated by a long shot.

我的意思是，我们将在十一月迎来中期选举。

I mean, we have the midterms in November.

如果你现在看聚市场（Poly Market）的赔率，当前政府的前景并不乐观。

If you look at poly market odds right now, they're not very good for the current administration.

我预计他们会大力推动，试图改变这些赔率。

I would imagine that there's going to be a huge initiative to try to change that, change those odds.

没有什么比白送钱更受选民欢迎的了。

And there's nothing voters love more than free money.

所以我不知道，我只是觉得肯定有什么办法，但你看我们现在，你明白吗，当油价上涨时，这可能是最不受欢迎的事情之一。

So I don't know, just, I feel like there's gotta be something, you know, but here we are, we're, you know, probably one of the least popular things around is when you see gas prices increase.

所以感觉事情正朝着错误的方向发展，但我确实好奇，你们觉得在十一月之前，还有足够的时间来扭转局面吗？

So it feels like things are going in the wrong way, but I do wonder, like, do you guys feel like there is enough runway to steer this ship around before November?

没有。

No.

但这个答案和努力尝试是不一样的。

But that is a different answer than trying.

我们在2026年展望报告中反复强调的一个核心主题是，当你在今年积极参与市场投资时，要时刻牢记：每一次选举和每一个事件，都是有史以来最重要、风险最高的版本。

One of the, the number one theme we wrote about in like our 2026 outlook that you should keep top of mind when investing in active in the markets this year is every election and every event is the highest stakes version of that event ever in history.

但这次选举不同，我们知道上次特朗普输掉中期选举后发生了什么，我们也清楚当前的赌注有多高——比如弹劾程序、他卸任后所遭遇的一切。

But this election, when we know what happened last time Trump lost the midterms, we know the increased stakes and what's on the line in terms of, you know, impeachment proceedings, what they did to him, you know, after office.

显然，这次中期选举所承载的利害关系远超普通选举，它关系到他的政治遗产、个人命运、财富安全，甚至他的家人。

It's quite clear that this these midterms carry more than just your average in terms of stakes, what it means for his legacy, him personally, his wealth, his safety, you know, all these things, his family.

因此，最明确的赌注就是：随着这一事件临近，由于极度的绝望和高风险，市场波动性必将加剧。

So you have to the most clear thing to bet on is rising volatility into that event due to the level of desperation, high stakes.

当民调数字下降时，这种情况只会加剧。

And that only increases when the polling numbers are going down.

你必须变得越来越疯狂。

You have to get crazier and crazier.

我不是在评价正在发生的事情时这么说的。

I don't mean that in my assessment of what's happening.

我只是说，为了尝试，会采取越来越极端、越来越激进的措施，比如关税刺激、退税支票，或者一些我如果在台上提出来，可能会被称作阴谋论末日论者的东西。

I just mean more kind of larger and larger, more radical and radical things to do to try, whether that's tariff stimulus refund checks or, you know, other measures that I'll probably get called a conspiracy doomer if I bring up on stage.

但这些措施一定会发生，因为对掌权者来说，选举结果至关重要。

But they will happen because the selection matters a lot to the people in charge.

所以我不认为局势在掌控之中，也不认为它会得到控制，但我认为会有很多试图掌控局势的尝试。

So I don't think it's under control, and I don't think it will be, but I think there will be a lot of attempts to control things.

通常，在生活的各个方面，当你用尽全力、紧握方向盘、指节发白时，事情反而会越来越偏离你的控制，这可能就是我们在这里看到的情况。

And it's usually when, you know, in all aspects of life, when you try to grip the steel steering wheel the hardest in white knuckle, it goes less and less your your way, and that may be what we see in this case.

是的，各位。

Yeah, guys.

我的意思是，有很多说法认为古巴是下一个目标，如果民调数据持续令人失望，他们可能会冒险采取更多行动。

I mean, there's a lot of suggestions saying that Cuba is next, and maybe if the poll numbers keep keep disappointing, they'll they'll gamble on more more excursions.

我长期以来一直密切关注特朗普政府，也长期关注特朗普总统。

So I I've been watching the Trump administration for very closely for a long time, and I've been watching president Trump for a long time.

他现在所做的事情，恰恰与他长期以来反复强调的关于对外战争等立场相反。

And what he's doing right now is kind of the opposite of what he's been repeating for for a very long time about foreign wars and so forth.

这让我感到惊讶，现在我觉得自己真的不太理解他在做什么。

So this has surprised me, and now I feel like I I don't really understand what he's doing.

这尤其糟糕，因为正如昆恩提到的，而且他也从亲身经历中清楚知道，当民主党控制众议院时，他的日子会非常艰难，推行他的议程也会异常困难。

And this is especially bad because as Quinn mentioned and and as he, of course, knows from direct experience, when the Democrats control the house, life is gonna be very difficult for him, and it's gonna be very difficult for him to do his agenda.

所以，他现在所做的一切对我来说真的说不通，老实说，我不太确定到底发生了什么，但看起来这并没有帮助到他。

So what he's doing right now really doesn't make sense to me, and so I honestly, I I'm not really sure what's going on, but it doesn't seem like it's helping him.

好吧，这里只剩下几分钟了，但我最后想探讨的问题是，在我们今天所处的这个充满动荡的世界背景下，新闻头条不断剧烈波动。

Alright, just a few minutes here left, but the last question I'm trying to think about is within the context of where we sit today within the surround world, there's a lot of whipsawing of headlines.

我只是想理解并剖析你们两人各自的分析框架，看看如何在如此多的噪音中提取出真正的信号，并据此采取行动，判断我们是否真的已经渡过难关，局势正在好转。

And I just wanna understand and unpack both of your frameworks for how to actually derive a signal from amongst all that noise and how to action that signal to understand, okay, we're actually in the clear, things are improving.

如果这种情况发生，这会如何改变你当前的宏观经济学框架？

And, and if that happens, how does that flip your current macroeconomic framework?

你知道，如果我们讨论美元走强，当你在这一框架中确认了信号的来源，这会如何改变你的观点以及改变的力度？

You know, if we're talking about dollar higher, if you get that confirmation in that framework of actual deriving the signal, how does that flip your views and how aggressively?

或者你觉得，由于此前已经对市场造成了如此严重的冲击，以至于现在这些影响已经基本被市场消化了？

Or do you feel like there's already been this so much damage from the straight up for me who's been closed that it's sort of baked in already at this point?

我认为，这就像你把东西放进烤箱，放得越久，就越被烤熟了。

I think, yeah, it's like something you put in the oven and the longer it sits in there, the more baked in it gets.

所以，如果我们一个月后仍处于同样的情境下，那可能就真的已经定型了。

So if we're talking about the same circumstances in a month, like, it's probably really baked.

但如果局势 somehow 能够缓和并结束在海峡，那关键就在于海峡本身。

But, if it somehow were to deescalate and end in the strait, it's really about the strait.

其他所有因素都重要。

Everything else matters.

中东的石油和能源资产也很重要。

The oil and energy assets in The Middle East matter.

但关键是海峡，因为化肥、石油、天然气等关键物资都从那里流出。

But it's about the straight and that's where the critical supplies of fertilizer, oil, gas, etcetera, are flowing from.

卡塔尔液化天然气之类的事情已经造成了一些持久的损害。

There's already been some lasting damage with the Qatar LNG and things like this.

但确实，我会关注市场，因为那些需要人们相信这些胡言乱语才能实现其议程的人，正在放出大量无稽之谈。

But yeah, I would watch the market because it's just a lot of nonsense coming out of the people who need the nonsense believed for their agendas to work.

正如我之前所说，你看看各类资产的隐含波动率，它们根本没有下降。

You, like I said earlier, you look at implied volatilities across asset classes, they don't go down.

它一直在直线上升。

It's just straight up.

所以如果你看两三个月后的市场，这基本上意味着市场在说：别以为这事已经解决了，因为人们正在为不确定性和波动性支付溢价。

So you go two, three, four months out, that's basically the market saying, don't think this is resolved because people are paying up for uncertainty and volatility.

这在股票和其他资产上都成立。

This is true across equities and other assets.

还有石油市场，我认为它最受关注，因为它的影响最直接，而且价格真的没有丝毫松动。

And also the oil market, I think that has commands the most eyeballs because it's the most immediate impact and it really hasn't budged.

这对经济健康运行、流动性及市场稳定来说仍然过高。

It's still way too high for the economy to be functioning healthily and liquidity and markets to be sound.

我正在密切关注的一个领域，也是我最看好的投资方向，是农业领域。

An area I'm watching really closely because it's probably the trade I'm most bullish on is the agricultural space.

如果你回顾历史上每一次能源价格飙升，都会随之出现——我知道这听起来很疯狂——但确实引发了粮食短缺、粮食通胀，以及谷物、玉米、小麦等整个农业领域的价格波动。

So if you look at every single one of historical energy price spikes, there's ensuing again, you know, this sounds crazy, but food shortages, food inflation, grain, corn, wheat, all across the agricultural space.

在这一事件发生前，人们可能并未充分意识到，美国农业生产成本与农民实际获得的作物价格（即收入）之间的差距达到了历史最大水平。

Heading into this event, which probably wasn't really well appreciated, was the largest gap in farming production costs in The US and what farmers are receiving for their crop prices, so their revenues.

有史以来最大的差距。

Largest gap.

过去几年，破产案例持续增加，去年农场破产数量上升了46%。

Over the last years, bankruptcies have been rising, farm bankruptcies were up 46% last year.

一旦发生这种情况，生产就会停滞，企业倒闭，融资成本上升。

And when that happens, you shut in production, people go out of business, financing costs rise.

因此，现在农民们正面临无法负担化肥价格飙升的困境。

And so, this is coming at a time where these farmers can't afford fertilizer price spikes.

那么，小麦、玉米、大豆等的价格是多少？

And so, what's the cost of wheat, corn, soybeans, etcetera?

这是燃料的成本，是化肥的成本。

It's the cost of fuel, It's the cost of fertilizer.

这是劳动力的成本。

It's the cost of labor.

这是融资的成本。

It's the cost of financing.

所有这些成本都在上升，移民减少、燃料短缺、化肥短缺，而且利润率创下新低，必须提高。

And all those things are going up, less immigration, fuel shortages, fertilizer shortages, and record low margins that need to rise.

我认为这会带来很多连锁反应。

I think there's a lot of knock on effects.

因此，关注这些受冲击最严重的领域，将非常有趣，可以判断这究竟是全面缓解，还是只是不太容易在社交媒体上传播的情况

And so watching these areas that are most acutely affected, think are going to be really interesting to really say if it's all clear versus just, this is less tweetable

解决方式。

resolution.