构建于抵御每次崩盘的投资组合 | Jared Dillian

《前瞻指引》中说的任何内容都不构成买卖任何投资或产品的建议。

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.

好的。

Alright.

大家最近怎么样？

What's going on, everybody?

欢迎回到《前瞻指引》的又一期节目，今天很高兴请到了贾里德·迪利安，他是《每日暴跌》的编辑，也是我们节目的常客。

Welcome back to another episode of Forward Guidance, And excited to be joined today by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and a regular guest of the show.

贾里德，你能来上节目总是太好了。

Jared, always great to have you on the show.

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

今天是黑色T恤日。

Today's black T shirt day.

我很高兴地宣布。

I'm happy to announce.

对。

Yeah.

大热天的，穿黑T恤还有什么比这更好的呢？

In the heat of the summer, what's better than just wearing a black T shirt apparently?

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

太好了。

Awesome.

你看。

Well, look.

对。

Yeah.

每次请你来节目都特别好。

Always always good to have you on the show.

我记得上次你来的时候是和你的搭档托尼·格里尔一起，我这边是奎因。

I think the last time you joined were with your with your man Tony Greer, and on my side was Quinn.

不过今天就是一对一，挺好的。

But, yeah, just a one on one today, which will be great.

而且我知道你有一本新书要出了，这是你的第七本书了。

And, yeah, I know that you have a a new book coming out, your your seventh book.

所以，跟我们说说吧，这本书是关于什么的？

So, yeah, feel free to tell us what what's it about?

什么时候出版？

When's it coming out?

还有，你为什么要写这本书？

And why why'd you write it?

好的。

Okay.

这本书叫《了不起的投资组合》，9月8号出版。

So the book is called The Awesome Portfolio, and it comes out September 8.

现在就可以预购了。

You can preorder it now.

通常亚马逊是最方便的预购渠道。

Best place to preorder it is Amazon, typically.

这大概要追溯到七年前了。

I was back this was, like, seven years ago.

我当时在研究投资组合。

I was doing some tinkering with portfolios.

你知道，我一开始是从股票和债券入手的。

And, you know, I started with stocks, and I started with stocks and bonds.

我最初用的是60/40的投资组合。

I started with, like, a sixty forty portfolio.

然后我开始往里面加东西。

And then I started adding stuff to it.

我当时就想，我往里面加了黄金，结果波动性大幅下降，又加了现金，波动性也大幅下降。

I was like, I added gold to it, which brought down the volatility considerably, and I added cash to it, which brought down the volatility considerably.

然后我继续调整，最后搞出了一个组合，20%股票、债券、黄金、现金和房地产。

And I kept tinkering with it, and I came up with this portfolio that was 20% stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate.

结果我发现，这个组合的夏普比率是我能想到的所有资产类别线性组合中最高的。

And what I found was this thing, had the highest Sharpe ratio of any linear combination of asset classes I could come up with.

就是，它的夏普比率特别高。

Like, just has a huge sharp.

所以从1971年开始，我选1971年是因为那基本上是你第一次能持有黄金的时候。

So since 1971 and the reason I picked 1971 is that's one that's the first time you could hold gold, basically.

从1971年到现在，它每年的回报率差不多正好是9%。

Since 1971, it has returned just about exactly 9% a year.

对吧？

K?

而且那个夏普比率，我想说，大概是0.6左右吧。

And the sharp, I wanna say, is, like, point six or something like that.

而且它的波动性只有80/20投资组合的一半。

And it has half the volatility of an 8020 portfolio.

这才是真正了不起的地方。

And this is the really remarkable thing.

从回撤来看，这个组合最糟糕的回撤是下跌12%，那是在2022年。

In terms of drawdowns, your worst drawdown ever with this portfolio was down 12%, and that was in 2022.

第二糟糕的是下跌9%，那是在金融危机期间。

The second worst was down 9%, which was the financial crisis.

金融危机时它只跌了9%。

It was the only down 9% in the financial crisis.

第三、第四和第五大的回撤都是下跌1%。

The third, fourth, and fifth biggest drawdowns were 1%, down 1%.

所以你有这样一个东西，它的波动性大约是股市的一半，回撤极小，年回报率9%。

So you have this thing which gives you about half the volatility of the stock market, has minimal drawdowns, returns 9% a year.

而股市自1971年以来的年回报率是11%。

Now the stock market since 1971 has returned 11% a year.

对吧？

K?

所以你在收益上让出了2%，但波动性被压得死死的，回撤也几乎消失了，而且这个组合你根本不用天天盯着看。

So you're giving up 2% in terms of performance, but your volatility is just smushed, the drawdowns disappear, and you have this portfolio that you don't have to look at it ever.

是不是？

Right?

如果你有这个组合，你知道最差也就是一年亏12%，那就没必要老看手机了。

If you have this thing, you know the worst you can do is 12% a year, there's no reason to look at your phone.

也没必要担心它。

There's no reason to worry about it.

比如传统投资智慧就是买指数基金，定投，然后长期持有。

Like if the conventional wisdom investing is you just buy an index fund and you dollar cost average and you hold it forever.

但你知道，标普500从2007年到2009年跌了57%。

Well, you know, the S and P 500 was down 57% from 2007 to 2009.

如果你有一百万，最后只剩四十三万，你肯定吓得裤子都掉了。

Like, if you had a million bucks and you ended up with 430,000, you are crapping your pants.

就是说，你会很难受。

Like, you're miserable.

对吧？

Right?

所以在那种情况下，90%的人都会扛不住。

So in those situations, 90% of people are going to puke.

他们就会在最低点割肉，然后就不再复利了。

Like, they're just gonna they're just gonna liquidate the lows, and then they're gonna stop compounding.

或者就算你是那10%能扛住的人，你也会真的难受好几年，直到回到之前的高点。

Or let's say you're in the 10% that doesn't puke, you're gonna be you're literally gonna be miserable for years until you get back to the high watermark.

对吧？

Right?

所以我提供的这个投资组合，说白了就是让你开心。

So what I'm offering with this portfolio is literally just happiness.

你只是稍微牺牲一点收益而已。

Something you just give up a little way in terms a little bit in terms of performance.

其实也没差多少。

It's really not that much.

而且你持有的这个东西基本上能年年稳步增长，持续很多年。

And you have this thing that basically grows in a straight line for years and years and years.

所以，嗯。

So Mhmm.

好的。

Okay.

我想我的第一个简单问题是，想理解一下激励机制，为什么几乎每个注册投资顾问都会推荐60/40的投资组合，或者如果你年轻的话，推荐80/20，而不是推荐像这样的东西，如果它的风险调整后回报更好的话。

I guess my first simple question is to understand the incentive structures of why pretty much every RIA in offers and and recommends a sixty forty portfolio or an eighty twenty if you're young or something like that as opposed to something like this if it has a better risk adjusted return.

比如，是因为行为因素吗？

Like, is it behavioral?

是因为其中20%是现金，而他们不对现金收取费用吗？

Is it the fact that 20% of it in cash and they don't collect fees on cash?

还是说，你觉得是什么原因，你知道，这里有一种很美的简洁性，我只是好奇为什么你认为这种简洁性没有被接受。

Or, what like, what do you think is the reason why, you know, there there's beautiful simplicity here, and I'm just curious why you think that that doesn't get embraced.

我觉得有几个原因。

Well, I think there's a few reasons.

第一，我觉得很多人根本不知道这个策略，写这本书的目的就是让大家了解它。

One, I think just a lot of people don't know about it, and that's the point of the book is to educate people about it.

我觉得大多数人都不了解。

I think most people don't know.

我还觉得，20%的黄金配置听起来让人害怕。

I also think that 20% gold sounds scary to people.

你懂吧？

You know?

大多数人会说，就算要配黄金，也就配个3%或5%，黄金太吓人了。

Most people say, you know, to the extent that you have any gold at all, it should be like 3% or 5% or gold is scary.

它波动大。

It's volatile.

它就是个让人害怕的东西。

It's this, you know, very scary thing.

就是，你不想持有太多。

Like, you don't wanna hold too much of it.

我的意思是，对我来说，60%或80%的股票，我觉得有点吓人。

I I mean, to me, 60 or 80% stocks, I think, is kinda scary.

就是，那让我害怕。

Like, that scares me.

我不明白为什么大多数人不怕。

Like, I don't know why it doesn't scare most people.

所以我觉得这是原因之一。

So I think that's part of it.

还有现金部分，大多数人会说20%的现金太多了。

And I think the cash part of it, like, most people say 20% cash is way too much.

对吧？

Right?

就是，它会拖累业绩。

Like, why it's it's a drag on performance.

关于这一点，我想说的是，在七十年代末、八十年代初，那时候货币市场基金能有15%的收益，那实际上是这个投资组合里表现最好的资产。

You know, the one thing I'll say about this is back in the late nineteen seventies, early nineteen eighties, when, you know, you could get a money market fund for 15%, that was actually the best performing asset in the Awesome Portfolio.

所以，现在现金能给你4%到4.5%的收益。

So and I mean, right now, cash is giving you four, four and a half percent.

其实也不算太差，而且还能降低投资组合的波动性。

It's really not that bad, and it dampens the volatility in the portfolio.

另外，现金也让你有机会在未来买到更便宜的东西。

Also, cash is an opportunity to buy something cheaper in the future.

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果你有一百万美元，其中20万是现金，你去劳德代尔堡度假，找个房地产中介看公寓，然后找到了你梦想中的公寓，你就可以直接付首付。

So if you have a million dollars and $200 of it is in cash, and you go on a vacation to Fort Lauderdale, and you get a real estate agent, and you're looking at condos, and you find your dream condo, you can just put down the down payment.

现金就是一种选择权。

It's cash is an option.

它是一种购买东西的选择权。

It's an option to buy something.

对吧？

Right?

所以这就是为什么我喜欢手头留很多现金。

Like, that's why I like having a lot of cash around.

我觉得20%是最合适的。

I think 20% is perfect.

嗯，是的。

So Mhmm.

对，就像你提到的，你一直在讲这个风格的投资组合，而且已经讲了好几年了。

So, yeah, as you mentioned, you've you've been talking and developed this this style portfolio for for quite a few years now.

我很好奇，为什么现在才真正出这本书呢？

I'm curious about why why now for actually releasing the book?

是不是跟我们现在所处的市场环境有关？你知道，自从2021年以来，债券表现一直不太好，这对60/40投资组合确实很不利。

Like, is it about where we are in terms of, you know, obviously since don't know, 2021 bonds have, you know, kind of sucked, which has really, you know, been detrimental to the sixtyforty portfolio.

而且，你也可以说股票估值非常高，可以说是很贵了。

And, you know, you can make the argument that equities are wildly highly, like richly valued.

是不是因为你对当前市场状况以及过去几年的走势有一些看法，所以才写了这本书？还是说你有其他想法？

Is it some sort of perspective on where we're at and you know, how the past few years have gone that made you write it, or or what do you think?

其实，我觉得这本书的出版时机并不理想。

Well, actually, think the timing is not ideal for this book.

我其实更希望是在股市大跌的时候出版这本书。

I would really like to be releasing this book when the stock market is crashing.

对，没错。

Like Yeah.

是的。

Right.

那样的话，这本书的论点会更有说服力，因为你知道，除了2022年那次不算太严重的熊市、疫情，还有可能2011、2012年之外，市场已经连续上涨了十八年。

Then I think there would be a much stronger argument for it because, you know, peep like, look, like, with with the exception of 2022, which was not that bad of a bear market, and the pandemic, and maybe 2011, 2012, the market's been going up for eighteen years, you know.

所以，在过去十八年你能获得11%甚至15%以上的回报时，你很难有理由去投资这个“精彩组合”，你会觉得，我看不出有什么问题。

And so, like, there is no compelling reason to invest in the Awesome Portfolio when you're making 11% plus, maybe 15% over the last eighteen years, and you say, I don't see what the problem is.

就是说，问题在哪儿呢？

Like, what's the problem?

就是说，为什么股市会这么吓人？

Like like, why is why is the stock market so scary?

我业余时间给《理性》杂志写稿。

I write for, Reason Magazine in my spare time.

我算是个自由撰稿人。

I'm like a freelancer.

我给他们写文章。

I I write articles for them.

最近我在写一篇关于某事的文章。

And I was doing an article about something recently.

我和编辑聊到了指数基金。

We were talk I was talking with my editor about index funds.

她说，你可以投点安全的东西，比如指数基金。

And she's like, well, you could go into something safe like an index fund.

然后我突然意识到，大家真的觉得指数基金是安全保守的选择。

And I'm and and then it hit me that people really think that index funds are the safe conservative alternative.

就是标普500指数。

It's the S and P 500.

它的市盈率是16倍。

It's got a ball of 16.

每天波动大约1%。

It moves around 1% a day.

1929年的时候，曾经下跌了89%。

You have in in 1929, you had an 89% drawdown.

对吧？

Right?

股票市场其实一点都不安全，但因为过去十八年一直在涨，大家都觉得它很稳健。

Like, there's there's nothing safe about the stock market, but since it's gone up for eighteen years, everybody thinks it's actually conservative.

你知道吗？

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

说得太好了，完全正确。

A 100% well said.

好。

Alright.

所以，就像你提到的，这是你的第七本书了。

So, yeah, as you mentioned, this is like your your seventh book.

你写金融方面的书已经有一段时间了。

You've been writing finance books for a while.

我不知道。

I don't know.

感觉我几乎认识你那些重要的观点，所以这里可能有一个逆向的视角。

It feels like almost I I know your big sentiment guys, so maybe there's a contrarian perspective here.

但你看。

But look.

我们现在就处在一个人工智能泛滥、AI写作泛滥的时代。

Like, we're in the age of AI AI slop, AI writing.

你知道，金融推特上的注意力比金鱼还短，但你还在坚持写金融书籍。

There's you know, FinTwit has an attention span of a goldfish, and you're still you're still writing finance books.

我很好奇，你现在怎么看这个行业？

And I'm curious, like, what's your perspective on that industry these days?

而且，是什么驱使你继续写这些书，尤其是在大家都转向短视频内容的情况下？

And, like, what what drives you to continue to write these books when you know, seems like everybody's trying to go towards short form content basically?

出版行业有趣的一点是，书越来越薄了，对吧？

Well, the interesting thing about the publishing industry is that books are getting shorter, Okay?

你知道，我2011年写的第一本书有13.5万字。

You know, my first book in 2011 was a 135,000 words.

《Awesome Portfolio》只有5万字。

The Awesome Portfolio is 50,000 words.

大多数书，我觉得，十年前或二十年前，平均大概有8.5万字。

Like most, you know, the average book, I would say ten, twenty years ago was about 85,000 words.

现在已经降到大约七万五或七万字了。

That's gone down to about 75 or 70.

人们的注意力越来越短。

Attention spans are getting shorter.

大家出版的书也越来越短。

People are publishing shorter books.

你知道，另外我想说的是，我其实只有两本金融书，如果把《街头怪人》也算进去的话，可能有三本。

You know, I and the other thing I'll say is, you know, I only have really two financial books, maybe three if you count Street Freak.

那是我写的一本短篇小说集。

This is a short story collection that I've written.

我还有两本散文集。

I have two essay collections.

我其实写了很多，但基本上只有两本金融书。

I've done a lot of, know, I actually haven't I only have two finance books basically.

就这样，没什么好担心的。

Like that, no worries.

但是，是的，我的意思是，现在当作家真的很难，因为让人读书真的是一件很麻烦的事。

But, yeah, I mean, to be an author today is really hard because it is just a pain in the ass to get people to read books.

对。

Yeah.

真的就是这样。

Like it really is.

我的意思是，就算是我，家里也有一个图书馆。

I mean, like even for me, like I have a library in my house.

我有一把羊皮椅子。

I have like this sheepskin chair.

那是我读书的椅子。

It's like my reading chair.

我有一摞书，大概一英尺高，都是我想读但还没读的，因为我忙，大家也都忙。

And I have a stack of books like a foot high that I wanna read that I haven't gotten to because I'm busy and everybody's busy.

但现实是，我们并不忙。

And the reality is we're not busy.

我们只是把所有时间都花在刷推特上了。

We're just spending all our time scrolling Twitter.

对吧？

Right?

这可不是在好好利用我们的时间。

Which is not a use good use of our time.

你明白吗？

You know?

明白。

Mhmm.

对。

Yeah.

百分之百。

A 100%.

我完全一样。

I'm in the I'm in the exact same boat.

对。

Yeah.

有意思。

Interesting.

好的。

Alright.

那这样，我们会在下面的描述里放上链接，9月8号。

Well, look, we'll have the we'll the link in the in the description here, September 8.

去预购吧，应该会很棒的。

Go preorder it, and, yeah, it should be great.

而且，我们也很想聊聊市场以及现在的情况。

And, yeah, we'd love to chat about markets and what's going on there.

我们来谈谈美联储吧。

Let's talk about the Fed.

上周凯文·沃什的会议至少可以说是很有启发性的，尤其是他的新闻发布会。

Kevin Warsh meeting last week was illuminating to say the least, especially his press conference.

你对美联储现在的看法是什么？尤其是在这个似乎正在发生的关键转变上。

What what's your perspective on the Fed right now in in this pivotal shift that seems to be happening?

我觉得大家对美联储会议的主流看法是，沃什犯了个错误。

So I think the conventional wisdom around the Fed meeting is that Warsh made a mistake.

这损害了美联储的信誉。

It was a loss of Fed credibility.

债券市场表现不佳。

The bond market isn't behaving.

长期国债收益率暴跌。

The long end is cratering.

我的看法完全相反。

I had the complete opposite view.

我认为这完全是故意的。

I think this was completely intentional.

百分之百是故意的。

A 100% intentional.

我觉得如果沃什，我觉得沃什知道如果他保持利率不变，收益率曲线会大幅陡峭化。

I think that if Warsh I think Warsh knew the curve would steepen a lot if he kept rates the same.

对吧？

Right?

我百分之百相信这一点。

I I I a 100% believe that.

沃什一直说他想减少美联储在货币政策中的作用，让市场自己来处理。

Warsh has said all along that he wants to reduce the role of the Fed in monetary policy and let markets take care of it.

所以他就说，好吧，管他呢。

So he says, okay, screw it.

就是说，我们不会对利率采取任何行动，看看市场会怎么做。

Like, we're not gonna do anything with rates, and we'll see what the market does.

而且他知道市场会怎么做。

And he knew what the market would do.

市场就直接把长期端给砸了。

It just trashed the long end.

长期利率被彻底打爆了，而这实际上正是他想要的货币政策效果。

The long end got obliterated, and that actually that actually is the monetary policy he was looking for.

比如说，如果他加息，收益率曲线会变平，那反而会刺激经济。

Like, if he hiked rates, the curve would have flattened, which actually would have been stimulative.

对吧？

Right?

房贷利率会下降，对经济有好处。

Mortgage rates would have come down, and it would have been good for the economy.

但这次的效果正好相反。

This had the opposite effect.

它立刻产生了紧缩效应。

It had an immediate tightening effect.

你看，长期利率上升，十年期利率上升，房贷利率也上升，马上就产生了紧缩效果。

Like, you know, long term rates went up, ten year rates went up, mortgage rates went up, and it has an immediate tightening effect.

所以这实际上是在收紧货币政策。

So it actually tightens monetary policy.

这还有个额外的好处，就是能让特朗普不再对联邦基金利率指手画脚，因为我觉得特朗普没那么懂收益率曲线的这些门道。

It also has the added benefit of getting Trump off his back about the Fed funds because I don't think Trump is sophisticated enough to understand the dynamics of the yield curve.

我觉得特朗普在意的就是联邦基金利率的表面文章。

I think all Trump cares about is the optics of Fed funds.

而且，我最近还看到一些东西。

And, also, I've seen some stuff recently.

天哪。

Gosh.

有个叫埃德·布拉德福德的，在推特上，挺有名的。

There's this guy, Ed Bradford on Twitter, full key.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

他挺厉害的。

He's great.

是的。

Yeah.

他贴了一段美联储官员的引文，然后他把关键部分涂掉了，就像是从哪弄来的。

And he posted this quote from a Fed official, and he, like, whited it out, like, it came from.

但基本上，这样做的目的是降低短期利率。

But, basically, the objective of this is to lower short term rates.

对吧？

Right?

就像，他在通过收益率曲线的长端收紧，这样将来他就能降低短期利率。

Like, he's tightening with the long end of the yield curve so that in the future he can lower short term rates.

比如，如果你现在想做多陡峭化交易，我觉得未来六到十二个月收益率曲线会变陡。

Like, if you wanted to be long and steepener right now, I mean, I think the curve is gonna steepen for the next six to twelve months.

你知道，我觉得情况会是这样。

You know, I I think that's what it's gonna look like.

所以我认为联邦基金利率会降到百分之三，而且长期利率会保持在高位。

So I think I think you'll see Fed funds come down to three, and, you know, I think the long end stays pretty high.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

你说的很多我都同意。

I agree with a lot of that.

所以这种陡峭化的方式，我很好奇。

So the style that that steepening, I'm curious.

比如，你显然看到三十年期国债成了大家关注的焦点，它确实大幅下跌，收益率也突破了2022年的高点。

Like, do you do you see obviously, the thirty year was the talk of the town and that really sold off and, you yields are hitting you know, took out took out the highs in the yields from 2022.

你觉得这是不是已经见顶了，而大部分陡峭化来自比如说两年期收益率下降？

Do you see that as sort of peeking out and most of the steepening coming from say the two year yield coming lower?

我觉得不是。

I think it no.

我觉得两者都有。

I think it's both.

我觉得两者都有。

I think it's both.

而且有趣的是，你知道，债券收益率到了5.30%。

And you know what's funny is, you know, bonds got to $5.30.

你知道吗，我觉得现在聊的时候，它们大概是5.18。

You know, I think they're $5.18 right now as we're talking.

所以实际上长期端这边有一点反弹。

So there's actually been a little bit of a rally in the long end.

十年期国债收益率已经降下来了。

Tens of bond yields have come down.

我的意思是，你看，我对很多事情都感到很困惑。

I mean, look, like, I'm very confused about a lot of things.

过去三四天，股市简直疯了一样。

The stock market has just gone bananas over the last three or four days.

我觉得部分原因是所谓的“利奥波德技术面”。

I think part of that is what I would call Leopold technicals.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

对。

Right.

所以基本上，就是在他抛售投资组合之后的清理反弹。

So, basically, the cleanup off of him puking his portfolio.

所以我觉得，这波反弹有一部分是来自那个。

So I think I think part of it is the bounce from that.

我觉得还有一部分是特朗普在伊朗战争上又搞了个幺蛾子。

I think part of it is another taco out of Trump with the Iran War.

我的意思是，我们有很多疲软的数据，但没人提。

I mean, we got, you know, we've had a lot of weak data which nobody is talking about.

上次的非农数据很差，CPI疲软，PPI疲软，PCE也疲软，今天刚出来的JOLTS数据也不怎么样。

The last payroll number was bad, CPI was soft, PPI was soft, PCE was soft, We just got a soft jolts number today.

我觉得过去一个月左右的数据真的都不太强，你知道吧。

Like I would say the data going back about a month has really not been strong at all, you know.

所以有人跟我说，你看，如果把AI从GDP里剔除，GDP实际上是负的。

So and people have said to me, look, like if you take AI out of GDP, GDP is actually negative.

对吧？

Right?

我不确定这是不是真的。

I don't know if that's true.

我从来没算过这个数字，但别人是这么跟我说的。

I've never done the numbers on that, but that's what people have told me.

所以，谁知道呢，走着瞧吧。

So, know, we'll see.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，我是说，就算从这个角度看，我们上周确实拿到了GDP数据，而且有很多，怎么说呢，净出口的波动。

I think, I mean, even in that vein, yeah, we did get the GDP data last week, and there's a lot of, I don't know, next net exports whipsawing.

但你知道，消费者数据相对强劲，但这也跟你提到的其他一些更前瞻或者正在下降的指标相比，显得有点滞后，尤其是在现在这个时点。

But, you know, it was it relatively strong to con the consumer numbers, but that's also, like, wildly lagging versus some of the other points that you mentioned that are a bit more forward looking or are are are trending lower at a moment where yeah.

比如，显然，上次会议没有加息，但市场仍然定价九月加息的可能性至少是50%。

Like, obviously, we didn't get the the hike at this past meeting, but the market's still pricing in at least a a 50% odds of a hike in September.

你觉得这种情况会发生吗，还是说你觉得，随着长期利率现在收紧，加上一些数据开始转弱，等到九月份的时候，我们可能就不需要加息了？

Do you do you see that happening, or do you think that, you know, with with the long end doing this tightening right now and some of this data starting to roll over that by the time we get to September, we might not need that hike?

我觉得两种情况都有可能。

I think I think both.

首先，我觉得沃什根本不会加息，不管怎样。

I think first of all, I don't think Warsh is gonna hike, period.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

不管数据怎么样，我都觉得沃什不会加息。

I don't like I don't like no matter what the data is, I don't think Warsh is gonna hike.

而且，我也确实觉得数据会配合，你知道的。

But also, I do think the data is going to cooperate, you know.

所以，我就是这么布局的。

So, I'm positioned that way.

你知道，我做多SOFR和两年期国债。

You know, I'm long SOFR and twos.

所以，我就是这么布局的。

So, like, I'm positioned that way.

不过，是的，我是说，你知道，现在，我上次看的时候，我看了彭博上的那个曲线屏幕，市场仍然定价到明年六月会有1.7次加息。

But, yeah, I mean, you know, right now, the last time I looked, I looked at the warp screen on Bloomberg, and we still have 1.7 hikes priced in out to June of next year.

我觉得实际数字是零，你知道，甚至是负的。

I say the number is zero, you know, or negative.

对吧？

Right?

就像，我觉得这个预期会消失。

Like, I I think it's going away.

所以……

So

除了如果曲线平坦化并且利率下降，那会有些刺激作用之外，你觉得试图让曲线变陡还有什么作用？

What else do you think is the role of trying to steepen the curve other than, obviously, like, if it if it flattens along and comes lower, that's somewhat stimulative.

但你觉得它还有其他作用吗？

But do you do you see it contributing to other roles?

一个很明显的作用是，陡峭的收益率曲线对银行很有利，你知道，就它们的净息差而言。

One being, obviously, a steep yield curve is great for banks to you know, in terms of their their NIM.

我在想这个，还有这个想法，好吧。

I I think about that and this idea of, okay.

如果沃什和美联储试图退出作为流动性边际提供者的角色，把这一角色转向商业银行，让它们在放贷上更自由，再加上放松监管的想法。

If if Warsh and the Fed is trying to get out of the game of of being, you know, the marginal provider of liquidity and moving that towards commercial banks to be more, you know, free on free on lending, that paired with this idea of deregulation.

你觉得这些是观察市场边际流动性来源的重要因素吗？

Like, you think those are important components to look at here for for where the marginal liquidity is coming into the market?

我的意思是，这是另一回事。

I mean, is that is another thing.

这对银行有好处，而且，你知道，如果你看XLF的图表，它正处于高位。

It is good for banks and, you know, if you look at a chart of XLF, it's on the highs.

摩根大通也处于高位。

JPMorgan is on the highs.

所有大银行都在高位。

All the big banks are on the highs.

根据我的经验，如果银行股表现强劲，整个市场很难下跌。

And my experience is it's kinda hard for the whole market to sell off if banks are strong.

真的想不出有什么情况下股市大幅回调而银行股还在高位的。

Like, can't really think of an instance where you've had a significant correction in stocks where banks are on the highs, you know.

但通常它们之间相关性很高。

But usually pretty correlated.

我真的觉得沃什和鲍威尔、耶伦、伯南克、格林斯潘，以及几乎所有其他美联储主席，从沃尔克甚至更早开始，都存在深刻的哲学分歧。

I really just think I just think there's just profound philosophical differences between Warsh and Powell and Yellen and Bernanke and Greenspan and pretty much any other Fed chair going back to Volker, you know, or before then.

就像沃什，你看，

Like like, Warsh I mean, look.

他希望减少FOMC会议的次数。

Like, he wants fewer FOMC meetings.

我不知道他具体想要多少次。

Like, I don't know how many he wants.

比如现在我们有八次会议，可能以后会改成六次或者四次。

Like, right now, we have eight, so maybe we go to six or four.

他就是想让美联储在货币政策上少管点，让市场自己多出力。

Like he just wants a diminished role of the Fed in monetary policy and for the market to do all the heavy lifting.

对吧？

Right?

所以他基本上就是在明说我们一直都知道的事，因为我们一直都知道美联储是尾巴，市场才是狗。

So basically what he's he's saying explicitly kind of what we knew all along because we've always kind of known that the Fed was the tail and the market was the dog.

你知道，我们总是先定价美联储的动作，然后美联储最后都会按市场说的做。

You know, like we would price in a Fed move and then the Fed inevitably would do what the market says.

沃什就是这么直说的，对吧？

Like Warsh just said that explicitly, right?

所以，你知道，我觉得他当美联储主席的头几周，那就是我们必须做出的调整。

So that's, you know, that's the I would say the first couple of weeks he was Fed chair, that was the adjustment we had to make.

不过，你知道，市场会慢慢适应的。

But, you know, the market will get used to it.

没事，会好的。

Little it'll be fine.

对。

So Mhmm.

你觉得财政部在这里的角色和职能是什么？

What do you think about the role and function of of treasury here?

显然，贝森是支持沃什上任的。

Obviously, you know, Besson was rooting for Warsh to get in.

他们认识很久了，而且有意思的是，上周美联储会议之后，我们还看到了那种直接的日元干预。

They've known each other a long time, and it's it seems quite interesting that on the back of last week's Fed meeting, we also got this, you know, outright yen intervention.

这好像是财政部近三十年来第一次明确出手，他们卖出了欧元，而且和日本央行配合得很紧密。

I think the first outright explicit move from the Treasury in something like thirty years, they they sold euros and and were closely aligned with with the BOJ.

感觉这可能是和货币当局协调一致的行动，或者你怎么看这件事，以及在一个不那么活跃的美联储背景下，财政部的一般职能？

It feels like that might be a concerted effort with monetary authorities, or how do you think about that and just the general function of of treasury in light of a less, active Fed?

你知道吗，我真希望我知道这个问题的答案。

You know, I I wish I knew the answer to that question.

说实话，跟你一样，你问之前我都没想过这个问题。

I literally like you I haven't thought about it till you asked it.

日元确实便宜。

The yen is is cheap.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，单从购买力平价来看，日元就是便宜。

I mean, just just on a purchasing power parity basis, the yen is cheap.

我那帮傻侄子都跑去日本买宝可梦卡，四个人吃顿饭才花三十美元。

I have my stupid nephews going to Japan to buy Pokemon cards and, like, eating dinner for four for, like, $30.

就是便宜。

Like, it's cheap.

我的意思是，美元非常强势。

I mean, the dollar is very strong.

就算比去年春天跌了10%，美元依然很强。

Like, even even down 10% from last spring, like, the dollar is still very strong.

你知道，丹尼斯·加特曼以前常说，干预压低自己的货币总是有效的，但干预支撑自己的货币从来都不管用。

You know, Dennis Gartman used to say that intervening against your currency always works, but intervening on behalf of your currency never does.

因为最终你会有这些外汇储备，你花它们来支撑你的货币，最后储备耗尽，你就完蛋了。

Cause inevitably you have these FX reserves and you're spending them to support your currency and eventually run out of reserves and you're screwed.

对吧？

Right?

现在，我是说，日本有大量的储备，现在美国财政部也加入了。

Now, I mean, Japan has copious reserves and now Treasury is jumping in.

是的。

Yeah.

但是，你知道，我有一个朋友，他其实已经去世了。

But, you know, I had a I had a friend who actually passed away.

他是个非常聪明的市场专家，在中国工作了好几年，也在日本工作过。

He was a very smart markets guy and, he worked in China for a number of years and Japan.

他的长期观点是，美元兑日元最终会涨到2.50。

And his long term view was that dollar yen was going to $2.50 ultimately.

我倒不觉得会那样，因为就像我说的，日元已经很便宜了。

I don't I kinda don't see that happening because like I said, like, it's already very cheap.

而且贝森，你知道的，他在外汇干预上有赚钱的历史。

And Besson, you know, has a history of making money on FX interventions.

对吧？

Right?

他在阿根廷就赚过钱。

He made money in Argentina.

对吧？

Right?

比如，买比索，卖比索，赚了几十亿美元。

Like, bought the peso, sold the peso, made a few billion dollars.

对吧？

Right?

他可能在日本也会做同样的事情。

Like, he'll probably do the same thing in Japan.