本轮加密市场的Alpha机会藏在哪里？

前瞻指导里说的任何内容都不构成对任何投资或产品的买入或卖出建议。

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

今天超级激动，能请到我行业中一些最喜欢的资产配置者，来聊聊在这个谨慎乐观但可能刚开始的牛市中，阿尔法在哪里。

Super excited today to be joined by some of my favorite allocators in the industry here to talk a bit about where the alpha is in this cautiously optimistic, but potentially early bull market that we have going on here.

我们何不轮流介绍一下自己？

Why don't we go on a line here?

大家随意介绍一下自己就好。

Just feel free to introduce yourself.

可以提一下你们的基金类型和你们关注的重点，我们就从你开始吧，Arthur。

Maybe you mentioned your your style of fund and what you focus on, and we'll start with you, Arthur.

我是Arthur。

I'm Arthur.

我是Defiance Capital的创始人兼CEO。

I'm the founder and CEO of Defiance Capital.

我们是加密货币流动性基金，从2020年开始投资这个领域。

We are crypto liquid funds that's been investing in the space since 2020.

典型的流动性风险投资风格，我们买入那些我们认为很有潜力的热门币种，然后……

Classic liquid venture style, we buy the crypto of the ad that we think have a lot of promising potential and...

长期持有。

Stay in for the ride.

对。

Yep.

你好。

Hi.

我是Rajiv。

I'm Rajiv.

我是Framework Ventures的普通合伙人。

I'm a GP at Framework Ventures.

我们是一家总部位于旧金山的投资公司，主要做早期风险投资和一些流动性代币投资。

We're an SF based investment firm that mostly does early stage venture and some liquid token investing.

我是Smac。

I'm Smac.

我是Compound的合伙人。

I'm a partner at Compound.

我们是一家以研究为导向的投资公司，主要做早期风险投资，最近也开始关注公开股票和代币。

We are a thesis driven research centric investment firm, typically early stage venture and more recently spending time on public equities and tokens as well.

所以，我们是一家总部在纽约的综合性基金，大约三分之一的资金与加密相关。

So, generalist fund based in New York, probably a third of the fund is crypto related.

太棒了。

Awesome.

不如我们聊聊新兴领域有哪些，以及什么比较有趣吧？

Why don't we get into where the emerging sectors are and what's interesting?

显然，第一个就是AI，过去一年里AI确实有很多亮点，

Obviously, the first one is AI has obviously been the the...

而现在这种热度开始转向加密货币领域。

You know, a lot of excitement there over the last year and starting to see that shift towards excitement in crypto.

而且很明显，AI和加密货币的交集是……

And obviously the the intersection of AI and crypto is...

那里有很多的兴趣和兴奋。

There's there's a lot of interest and excitement there.

所以很想听你们谈谈这个特定的细分领域，你们三位怎么看，怎么思考那里的阿尔法和机会集？

So just love to hear a bit about, that specific niche sector, how the three of you are are are about it, how are thinking about the alpha there and the opportunity set?

Arthur，你先来吧？

Arthur, why don't you go ahead?

所以我觉得初始阶段，从2023年开始，我觉得有些挣扎。

So I think the initial phase, I think since 2023, I think there was a bit of struggle.

有很多生搬硬套的加密与AI主题。

There was a lot of force fitting of a crypto and AI theme.

但我觉得在过去一年里，开始看到越来越多有道理的东西。

But I think over the past one year, start to see more and more things that make sense.

我觉得这可能不是一个广为人知的事实，但最大的开源AI代理框架Hermes的开发者，实际上是由新闻……

I think this is probably not a very well known fact, but the developer of the largest open source AI agent framework, Hermes, is actually built by news...

Nous Research 其实在加密 AI 那边也在做一些东西。

Nous Research that was actually kind of building something on a crypto AI side as well.

而且我觉得现在他们也被认为是非常正经的 AI 团队了。

And I think that now they are, like, being considered very legitimate AI team as well.

所以这些就是一些例子。

And so those are one of the example.

我们还看到了像 Venice AI，它基本上就是加密版的 OpenRouter，可以在上面路由推理请求……

We also saw, like, Venice AI, which is essentially like a crypto version of open router where you can route inference on a...

通过它来实现隐私保护。

With privacy focus through it.

而且我觉得这个项目确实发展得很快。

And I think that that actually has been really taking off.

当然，如果跟 OpenRouter 比的话，它的 token 规模和推理量还没那么大，但增长曲线简直是火箭式的。

I think that obviously if you compare them to open router, like, the the token span and inference is still not as big, but the growth chart is still a hockey stick.

所以我觉得这些就是我们目前看到的一些典型例子。

So I think that this is some of the prime example that we are seeing right now.

所以我觉得有几件事。

So I think there's a few things.

一是AI显然在改变公司的运营方式。

One is that AI is obviously transforming the way that companies operates.

我们看到了一些以前在早期公司中看不到的运营杠杆，他们可以在不大量招人或花更多人力成本的情况下取得更多进展。

So we are seeing sort of operational leverage that we haven't seen previously, sort of for early stage companies where they are able to make a lot more progress without needing to hire a lot more people or potentially spend on headcount.

在加密货币方面，我们尤其对融资机会感到兴奋。

On the crypto side, I think in particular, we've been really excited about financing opportunities.

我们认为加密货币对资本形成非常有利。

We think crypto is really good for capital formation.

随着AI资本支出的扩张，很多不同领域都需要融资。

And sort of with the whole AI CapEx build out, there's lots of different areas that that need to be financed.

我们的投资组合公司之一，USDA AI，正在做中端市场的集群融资。

One of our portfolio companies, USDA AI, is doing like mid market cluster financing.

所以如果你想...

So if you, you know, want to...

如果你是一家有前途的初创公司，甚至是上市公司，想买价值1.5亿美元的GPU，你可以去找他们，可能获得更有吸引力的利率，而且首付要求比别处更低。

If you're you're a promising start up or even a public company, and you want to buy, you know, a $150,000,000 worth of GPUs, you can go to them and potentially get more attractive rates with like less of a down payment relative to what you might see elsewhere.

我，我...

I I...

我们自2016年起就一直在投资传统的人工智能和机器学习。

So we've been investing in traditional AI and ML since 2016.

所以对我们来说，当我们看待加密加AI，或者说...

And so for us, one of the things that when we look at kind of crypto slash AI or the...

或者说这两者重叠的地方时，很大程度上取决于那里的开发者水平。

Or where that overlap is happening, a lot of it comes down to, like, the talent level of the builders there.

所以我觉得有趣的是，我们开始看到加密的一些核心理念，比如无需许可，逐渐渗透到这些AI系统和AI叙事中。

And so I think what's kind of interesting is we've seen some of the overarching ideals of kind of crypto start to permeate more into these AI systems and this this AI kind of narrative, which is a lot around permissionlessness.

所以对我们来说，我们认为如果加密AI今天要在效率上竞争，那可能不是最合理的地方。

And so to me, I think we think that if crypto AI is going to compete on efficiency today, that's probably not the place that makes the most sense.

至少今天是这样，未来可能会改变，但我认为背后有很多社会趋势让加密相关的东西更有吸引力。

At least today, I mean, maybe that's not true in the future, but I think there's a lot of kind of underlying societal trends that that make the things behind crypto more appealing.

这主要跟协调有关。

And that's kind of around coordination.

我觉得有些经济模式可能会不一样。

I think some of the economic models could be different.

另外，跟中心化的AI以及那些前沿实验室做的事情相比，加密领域的这种无需许可的特性也很不同。

And then again, like permissionlessness compared to the, you know, centralized AI and and some of the centralized frontier labs and what they're doing.

我想补充一点，通常所有的加密AI项目默认都会强制加密和保护隐私。

I think one thing I would like to add a little bit is, like, usually, all the crypto AI project kind of enforce encryption and privacy by default.

我认为这是很大的不同，相比之下，那些AI项目目前还处于先做再说、不太在意隐私的阶段。

And I think that's a big difference compared to all the AI project where they are really in a stage where they just do everything first and then don't really care about the privacy.

我觉得……

I think that the...

总的来说，世界会越来越关注这一点，我觉得他们会发现……

In the the world in general, think, is gonna care more and more about this, and I think that they will found...

他们会发现加密AI项目里已经有现成的解决方案了。

They will find a solution that already exists in all the crypto AI project.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

当人们提到这种想法时，我总是有些犹豫，就是……

I'm always hesitant when I hear people talk about this idea of...

加密货币从来就不是为人类使用而设计的。

You know, crypto was never, you know, it was never built for humans to utilize.

有一种……

You know, there's there's this...

我不确定这是不是事后强行套上的想法，就是未来加密货币会被AI代理使用。

I don't know if it's just like force fitted in in retrospect, this idea of, okay, crypto is actually gonna be used by AI agents into the future.

我很好奇你们三位怎么看待这个前提。

Curious how the three of you think about that premise.

这只是后见之明，还是确有其事？

Is that just sort of, you know, hindsight bias or is there something there?

我觉得这...

I think it's...

我一直觉得，加密货币特别擅长处理协调问题，还有经济激励方面的东西。

So I've always thought, like, crypto is especially good at coordination and then kind of, like, economic incentives.

而且随着区块链变得更高效、性能更好，我觉得有...

And as Blockchains have got more efficient or more performant, I think there's...

我要说的观点是，在加密AI这边，机器对机器的交易和通信很酷，可能你用信用卡进行中心化系统交易，然后让代理互相交流，但要做这些交易确实有个最低门槛。

The argument, I would say, on the crypto AI side is cool machine to machine transactions and communication, maybe centralized systems that you use a credit card and you can have agents talk to each other, but there's some minimum floor to actually do those transactions.

而我认为加密AI的论点就是，好吧。

And I think the argument for crypto AI is, okay.

行。

Cool.

我们能不能把做这个的实际成本压低到一个更有竞争力的水平，让中心化提供商都没法比。

Can we smush the actual cost of doing this towards a level that's more competitive that a centralized provider can't compete with.

我觉得这能不能实现还不好说，但对我来说，这归根结底还是协调的问题，比其他都重要。

I think that's TBD on if that is actually possible, but to me it it comes back to like coordination more so than anything else.

这正是加密货币历史上特别擅长的地方。

Like, that's especially what crypto has been historically good at.

还有就是它的全球性和无需许可的特性。

And then also, like, the global nature of the permissionlessness.

我觉得大家就像Arthur说的，越来越关心隐私，关注数据放在哪里，由谁掌控。

I think people are, like Arthur said, much more concerned about privacy and kinda, like, where their data sits and who owns it.

对，我认为现在确实有一股趋势，就是在抵制那些前沿实验室和传统AI模式。

And, yeah, I think there's there's definitely an underlying trend of pushback on these kind of frontier labs and AI, like the traditional AI model.

所以我确实觉得，加密货币在这些领域有机会。

So I I do think there's, like, opportunity for crypto somewhere in the...

在这些细分领域里。

In those wedges.

本期节目由Fidelity Crypto赞助，这是一个内部打造的平台，秉承同样的严谨态度。

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto, a platform built in house with the same discipline.

Fidelity在所有事情上都秉持这种态度。

Fidelity applies to everything.

所以你可以放心投资加密货币，享受由行业领先的安全保障支持的免费加密货币。

So you can invest in crypto with confidence, free crypto backed by industry leading security.

请访问 fidelity.com/crypto 开始使用。

Get started at fidelity.com/crypto.

加密货币由 Fidelity Digital Assets NA 提供，不受 FDIC 或 SIPC 保护，并且存在重大损失的风险。

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC, and includes risk of significant loss.

Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC。

Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC.

NYSE SIPC 成员。

Member, NYSE SIPC.

我们最近一直在琢磨的一个想法是，鉴于市面上出现的所有这些智能体集群。

One idea we've been toying with recently is, like, sort of with all of these agent swarms that have been out there.

分布式无许可账本的概念可能会变得非常有趣。

The idea of, like, a distributed permissionless ledger becomes potentially very interesting.

你可以想象，无论好坏，如果一堆智能体需要相互通信，并需要确保消息的持久性或可用性，区块链实际上可能很有意义——无论是将其塞入具有高数据可用性的东西中，还是使用持久文件存储。

You can imagine for better or worse, you know, if a bunch of agents need to communicate with each other and need to make sure that their messages are durable or available, Blockchains actually might make a lot of sense whether you're cramming it into something with high data availability, whether using persistent file storage.

我觉得如果有人去爬我们的Weaver File Coin，看看这些智能体集群是不是已经在用它了，那会是个很有趣的实验。

I think it would be a very interesting experiment for somebody to like crawl our weaver file coin and see if like any of these agent swarms are already using it today.

我觉得……

I think that...

这个我倒没有特别强烈的看法，但显然这事有两面性。

I don't have a strong view on this, but I do think that there's obviously a two sided argument.

有人说AI智能体会比人更容易利用这些区块链支付和交易。

So people say that, AI agents are just gonna be able to use all this, like, blockchain based payment and, like, you know, transaction a lot more easily than human.

然后你……

And then you...

当然，也有人说直接用API就行了。

Obviously, people say that you can also use the API.

那有什么不同呢？

What's the difference?

我认为无许可的特性意味着恶意的AI智能体更容易利用它。

I do think that the permissionless nature means that it's easier for a rogue AI agent to exploit.

所以说，这未必能带来最好的局面。

So it doesn't really bring the best scenario.

但你想一下，如果AI Agent失控了，它会用银行API还是金融科技API呢？

But when you think about it, like if an AI agent go rogue, is he going to use a bank API or a fintech API?

它会用加密货币吗？

Is he going to use crypto?

我觉得毫无疑问会是加密货币。

I think it's definitely going to be crypto.

所以我觉得潜力真的很大。

So I think that there's just so much possibility.

我觉得不能轻易下结论，但我想，这种无需许可的特性加上AI，它们将会……

I think you cannot write off, but I think I think that the permissionless nature, combined with the AI, like, they're just going to be...

会带来很多我们难以预料的可能结果。

Going to create a lot of, like, the possible result that we are not able to foresee.

但我觉得这里确实有文章可做，只是现在下结论还为时过早。

But I think that there's definitely something that can be done here, but I think it's still too early to see.

我还想补充一点：如果你认为未来会是更多本地模型或小型模型，而不是所有事情都靠那些巨型前沿模型来做，更多的计算或推理会在分布式版本上完成。

I think also just like one other point around this is if you think the future is gonna be more local models or smaller models, not everything being done in in these, like, massive kind of frontier models and more of the work or more of the inference gets done at distributed versions of that.

我不确定...

You know, I don't...

至于加密货币公司或项目能否从中捕捉到价值，我觉得还是个开放的问题。

Whether or not there's value to be had there captured from crypto companies or projects is, I think, an open question.

但从方向上看，这是...

But directionally, it's...

我觉得这又回到了加密早期的一些核心信念，就是分布式网络和一定程度的隐私。

I think it is, again, like, in the ideals of some of the early kind of core beliefs of crypto around, you know, distributed networks and privacy to some extent.

所以...

So...

不过还是未知数，价值捕捉在这些事情上总是个开放的问题。

I mean, TBD though, the value capture is always like an open question with a lot of these things.

好的，我想从现代加密基金如何配置资金的角度来看隐私问题，并以此作为切入点。

Alright, I want to look into privacy, but through the lens of the modern crypto fund allocating towards it and using that as a jumping off point.

因为你们三支基金就代表了这种哑铃式的结构，既有风险投资、流动性较差的部分，同时也在积极布局流动性较好的那一边。

Because, I mean, the three of your funds kind of represent this idea of this barbellness of, you know, you have the venture book, the more illiquid book, and then you also are actively on the liquid side of things.

而且那...

And that's...

挺有意思的是...

It's quite an interesting...

看看那些做得好的加密基金，依然在这里持续配置的，似乎这种哑铃式的布局是个不错的位置。

You know, when you just look at the form factor of what crypto funds have done well and still here and are still allocating, it seems like that barbell is a nice place to live at.

然后你把这个放到最近真正火起来的隐私叙事的背景下，有意思的是，很多机会资产都是任何人都能在市场直接买到的。

And then you put that into this privacy narrative that's really taken hold recently and what's interesting there is that a lot of the opportunity set there are assets that anybody can go buy in the market.

比如Zcash已经存在很久了。

You know, like Zcash has been around for ages.

我们也看到NEAR的意图开始逐渐活跃起来。

We've seen near near intents start to go off.

当然还有一切跟零知识证明相关的项目。

There's obviously, you know, anything related to to the zero knowledge proof world over there.

这些资产你今天就可以去市场上买。

So, you know, those are assets that you can go out there and buy on the market today.

但要大规模配置的话，情况就比较棘手了，不像通过风投基金那样可以轻松建仓，不用太担心流动性。

But allocating in size is a difficult situation there compared to the allocation through a venture book where you can size into it very easily and not be as worried about liquidity.

当然，在流动性事件发生时你还是得操心，但嗯，拿那个案例来说，我很好奇你们三位是怎么看我们为什么最终走到这种风格，这似乎是当今加密货币领域的最佳选择。

Obviously you have to worry about it at the liquidity event, but yeah, using that case study there, I'm curious how the three of you think about why we've ended up in this style that seems to be just the best way to go in crypto these days.

我们先从你开始吧，Arthur。

Let's start with you, Arthur.

我觉得这从来不是什么大问题，对于……

I think that this has never really been a big issue for...

如果你有坚定的信念的话。

If you have held conviction.

我觉得我们看到有人能够积累，比如，如果他们愿意，可以在很长一段时间内积累某个协议的几个百分点。

I think that we have seen people being able to accumulate, like, I think a few percent of any protocol if they want over a long period of time.

而且我觉得，考虑到现有的执行工具，这真不是什么问题，除非你是超过5亿或10亿美元以上的规模。

And I think that given the execution tools available, I don't think it's really an issue except if you are like more than 500,000,000 or a billion dollars and above.

但也就是这样了。

But that's it.

我觉得这也是为什么历史上很多人喜欢风投，因为你不需要太操心这些。

I think that, you know, that's that's why I think historically a lot people just like venture because you don't have to think about it that much.

一旦你开始进入执行层面，你就要和市场做市商竞争，那就更多是关于交易的了。

And then once you start to go into the execution part, you start to compete the market makers and then it's a lot more trading ish focus.

但实际上，对于那些人来说……

But I actually think that for people who are...

因为我认为，归根结底，做风投你是在为结果的不确定性承担风险。

Because I think that ultimately for venture, you are underwriting the volatility of the outcome.

只是你不会每天都看到这种波动。

It's just that you do not see the volatility on a day to day basis.

我觉得这更多是……

I think that it's just for a lot more...

那些在流动性方面进行配置的人，他们必须愿意在建立仓位的阶段，不去过多关注日常的波动。

The people who are allocating it on a liquid side, they just have to be willing to not pay attention to the day to day volatility as much while they are building the position.

所以我觉得在建立任何仓位的时候，我们基本上会预算最终入场价有5%到10%的浮动。

So I think that we basically budget for like five to 10% variance in terms of our final entry price when we are building any position.

退出的时候也一样。

Also for exit as well.

我觉得有时候更容易接受自己不会把握得太准，因为你并不是在...

I think that sometimes that it's easier just to think that you're not going to time it too well because you're not...

你的目标不是短线交易，去追逐每天的市场波动。

Your age is not in a short term trading the day to day market movement.

所以给自己留个5%到10%的预算吧。

So just budget yourself for like a five to 10%.

我觉得10%可能有点多了。

I think 10% is probably a bit too much.

我们通常希望把浮动控制在5%以内。

We usually want to get like between 5% variance.

是的，但如果你能接受5%的偏差，建仓应该不会有什么问题。

But yeah, think that if you're okay to pay 5% stipendages, you shouldn't really have an issue building a position.

这基本上就是我们一贯的做法。

And that's that's generally been our approach.

我们看待事物的方式是，不管是流动性资产还是风投那边的，我们投资的标的都追求风投式的回报。

I mean, the way we look at things is like regardless of whether it's a liquid asset or or sort of on the venture side, we are looking for venture style outcomes for things that we invest in.

这通常意味着愿意长期持有资产，经历一些波动，同时希望能收获资产的凸性回报。

And that often means being willing to hold an asset over a very long time horizon and sort of realize some of the volatility and hopefully convexity sort with the asset.

我觉得，逐步建仓总是有挑战的，尤其是流动性不太好的时候。

I think, sizing into assets is always a challenging thing, especially if the liquidity is not great.

团队可能愿意也可能不愿意走场外交易。

The team may or may not be willing to OTC.

现在市场里拥挤交易也多了，某些东西很快就会变成共识。

There's also a lot more crowding these days in the market where things become a consensus a little bit more quickly.

我觉得大家……

And I think people...

或者说现在在场的基金和市场参与者，对什么有效、什么无效，什么真正值得投、什么不值得，都更有辨别力了。

Or the funds and and market participants that that that are here are a bit more discerning around like what is working, what isn't, what actually like makes sense to invest in and what doesn't.

所以，当你对某件事感到兴奋时，价格可能会快速变动，因为很可能其他人也在做类似的研究。

So the price is sort of when you get excited about something can move very quickly because it's very likely other people are doing sort of similar homework.

所以，很大程度上，我们只是要对上涨空间感到自在并理解它，至少对我们来说是这样。

So a lot of it is just being comfortable and understanding, at least for us, what the upside case looks like.

和Arthur类似，如果我们的买入价格有一些波动，我们也能接受。

And similar to Arthur, like, you know, if there's some variance sort of like in our entry price, we are okay with that.

我们...

We've...

所以，从历史上看，

So historically,

我们主要只做私人风险投资，种子轮和种子前轮。

we were primarily only kind of private venture seed and pre seed.

我觉得几年前有一个时间点，我们说，嘿，我们仍然对这个资产类别和技术感到兴奋，但在早期投资方面，我们没能遇到足够多我们能同意投资的创始人。

I think there was a point a couple years ago where we said, hey, we're still excited about the asset class and the technology and we're not meeting enough founders that we could get to a yes on in terms of like early stage investing.

于是我们说，嘿。

And so we said, hey.

我们应该花更多时间在流动性方面，主要是为了接触到这个资产类别，而且如果你只是定期做私人早期投资和种子阶段的投资，可能一年也就做四到五笔交易。

We should be spending more time on the liquid side mostly as a function of wanting exposure to the asset class, which, again, if you're kind of periodically only doing private pre seed and seed stage, like, maybe we only do four or five transactions a year.

所以这取决于...

And so it's...

像这个资产类别发展得比那快多了。

Like, the asset class moves faster than that.

所以我们改变了想法，我觉得这也跟整个市场的成熟有关，就是说，今天可投资的资产可能比五年前或十年前更多了。

And so we shifted kind of the belief, and I think part of this is just like the overall market maturing as well is, okay, I think there's more probably investable assets today than there were five or ten years ago.

正因为如此，我觉得改变对这个资产类别的看法很重要。

And because of that, I think shifting how you think about the asset class matters.

但在规模方面，我们...

But on the sizing side, we...

再说，即使考虑结构，对我们来说，就是觉得很酷。

Again, like, even when we think of structure, for us, it was very much cool.

我们觉得合适的规模是多少，按照Rajiv说的，我们的观点是这些应该是风险投资级别的回报，不管它们是不是流动性资产。

What do we think is, like, the proper size that we could own assets to Rajiv's point where our view is these should be venture style returns whether they're liquid assets or not.

所以，我们认为多大规模的投资能够合理地部署并产生那样的回报，同时避免只是跟随市场趋势呢？

And so, like, what is the size that we think we could reasonably deploy and generate those type of returns and and do it in a way that's not kind of beta?

因为在加密货币领域，另一个问题是，它很容易变成一种杠杆化的市场相关资产类别，这有点……

Because I think that is the other thing in crypto is, like, it can just turn to a levered beta asset class, which is...

这对我们来说就不太有意思了。

Which is, like, kind of not as interesting to us.

所以我们的观点是，好的。

And so our view is, okay.

不错。

Cool.

我们还能创造超额收益吗？

Can we generate alpha still?

并且，多大规模适合这样做呢？

And, like, what's the size appropriate to do that?

这很大程度上取决于这些资产的交易量，以及我们实际想持有哪些资产。

And a lot of it does come down to the volume of these things traded, like, what assets we actually wanna own.

然后呢，对，我……

And then, yeah, I...

波动性太大，我觉得这有点像，如果我们想慢慢建仓，有耐心的话，你得相信波幅会双向波动。

The the vol is so high that I think there's a little bit of, okay, if we wanna build a position over time, if you have some patience, like, you kinda have to believe that the volatility is gonna work both ways.

但当然啦，有时候有些资产就是一直猛涨，你得接受这一点，我觉得。

But, yeah, obviously, sometimes you see these assets just trend super hard and you kinda have to be comfortable with that, I think.

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你们怎么看这个问题？

What do you guys what do you guys think about this?

Rajiv，你说到的这种分散化很快就导致了拥挤退出，因为只有少数资产突然被大家追捧，而其他大量资产的基本面不够强。

You know, Rajiv, like, what you're saying about this idea of dispersion leads to crowding outness really quickly because there's only a handful of assets that, you know, suddenly everybody latches onto because there's just a plethora of assets out there that their fundamentals aren't as strong.

所以直觉上你会觉得分散化对主动管理型基金经理是好事，因为只要你有选择性并持有了正确的资产，你就可以去找你的有限合伙人说，看，这是我们创造的阿尔法。

So intuitively you would think dispersion is great for active managers because as long as you are selective and in the right assets, you can go to your LPs and say, like, look at this alpha that we are generating.

这不一定只是加了杠杆的贝塔，我们不只是……

You know, it's not necessarily just levered beta where we are just...

所有东西都在同时上涨。

You know, everything is going up at the same time.

但你说得对，这种拥挤效应也可能会很难管理。

But to your point, the crowding out of it can also be difficult to manage.

我很好奇，感觉这是我们进入的第一个牛市周期，而这次市场的分化明显更大。

I'm curious, it feels like this is the first bull cycle that we going into where there is significantly more dispersion.

不再是所有资产一起涨或者一起跌。

It's not just everything all up, all down.

你们三位是怎么应对这个情况的？

How are the three of you guys managing that?

好，我先说吧。

Yeah, I can start.

我觉得部分在于时机确实很重要，尤其是当大家的想法都很相似的时候。

I think some of it is like, you know, timing does matter if everybody has very similar ideas.

你怎么把握时机，可能就会有点影响。

Sort of how you time it probably matters a little bit.

时机体现在很多方面。

Timing comes in a bunch of forms.

这取决于你怎么考虑入场时机。

It comes around how you think about entry.

也取决于你的时间跨度是什么样的。

It comes about what your time horizon kind of looks like.

有些东西可能在短期内看起来非常有吸引力，并且最终成为共识和拥挤的交易，但从长期来看，可能不那么共识。

There's things that might look really attractive and end up being really consensus and crowded over a short period of time, but over a longer period of time maybe are are are a little bit less consensus.

所以我觉得这就是我们看待这个问题的一些方式。

So I think that's sort of some of how we have looked at it.

我觉得我们还在观察这一切会如何演变。

I think I think we're still sort of seeing how all this is gonna evolve.

感觉和之前的周期截然不同，还有很多东西需要学习。

It feels very different than previous cycles, and there's still a lot to learn there.

我觉得，这事儿本就不该轻松。

I mean, I I would say, like, it shouldn't be easy.

我认为在过去，加密货币市场并不是一个高度复杂的领域，不像……

I think that's like something that in the past for crypto, it was kinda like not a high level of sophistication, not...

当时几乎就是资本大量涌入，所以有那么一段时间赚钱挺容易的。

There was, like, almost this influx of capital, and so there was a period where it was kinda easy.

随便扔个飞镖，不管买什么都会涨。

You could just throw a dart and no matter what you bought, it went up.

我觉得这种成熟化就好比说，好吧，行。

And I think the maturation is a little bit of, okay, cool.

现在要更早地发现两个优质资产，并且合理配置它们的仓位，难度变高了。

It's becoming more difficult to get two assets early, size them accordingly.

这很大程度上是因为市场变得更专业了，但我觉得你也必须……

Mostly a little bit of that is sophistication, but I think, like, you have to you have to...

在我看来，部分问题在于，我们是否相信……

In my view, part of it is, okay, do we believe...

我们相信未来十二个月、十八个月、二十四个月之后，宏观上会是什么样子？

Like, what are the high level things we believe the future looks like twelve months from now, eighteen months from now, twenty four months from now?

尤其是加密货币，我觉得它的变化节奏似乎更快。

And I think crypto especially, almost seems to happen quicker.

所以，你可以有一个明确的观点，比如‘我们想持有这类资产’，然后确定大概什么时候退出。

So, like, you could have a view of, hey, we wanna own this asset class, and here's probably where we would like to exit it.

这个周期比公开股票或其他资产类别要快得多。

And that cycle is much quicker than kind of public equities or or other asset classes.

因此，所有的操作可能在三个月或六个月内就完成，你必须能够坦然地说‘好的’。

So, like, all of the moves can happen in three months or six months, and you have to be comfortable saying, okay.

这仅仅是因为拥挤导致的吗？

Is this just crowding out?

是因为我们坚信的那个趋势来得更快了，还是说相信的人变多了？

Is this, like, is the thing we believe happening quicker or are more people starting to believe it?

所以我觉得还有一点就是，一旦我们建仓之后，需要看到什么信号才该退出？

And so I think a little bit of it is, you know, what would we need to see once we've entered the position of, like, when should we be exiting?

所以我其实觉得现在反而是最好的时机……

So I actually think this is the best time to...

对我们来说这几年尤其如此，因为作为主动管理者，我们需要的是波动性。

For us in the recent years because, you know, for active managers, we want dispersion.

而这正是我们赚钱的地方。

And this is what we are getting paid for.

所以我觉得今年在市场上，我认识的那些流动性基金里，超过80%……

So I think that this is also a year that where I think on the street, I think probably more than 80% of the liquid funds I know...

我认识的那些做加密货币的对冲基金和流动性基金，表现都超过了比特币和以太坊等。

Hedge fund liquid funds I know on crypto, they outperform Bitcoin, ETH, and so.

因为我觉得年初至今它们还是下跌的，而我认识的大多数加密货币基金年初至今都是上涨的，涨幅在20%到100%之间。

Because I think year to date, they are still down and I think year to date, most of the crypto funds I know is up, like, from 20 to a 100%.

这也是一个很好的理由，说明为什么你应该找个专家来帮你管理投资组合。

And and this is also a good way for us to justify why, you know, you should get an expert to manage the book for you.

我觉得这是一个非常健康的现象。

And I think that, yeah, this is an extremely healthy phenomenon.

而且我觉得这也体现了市场对良好基本面的奖励速度有多快。

And I think that it's also kind of how fast the market have rewarded, like, the good fundamentals.

我觉得以前可能更多是由订单簿的仓位来驱动的，比如Hyperliquid，它成为共识标的已经超过一年了。

I think that, you know, previously there was a little bit of a more of like a order book positioning driven like, oh, like Hyperliquid, it was been a consensus name for more than a year.

以前，当某个币在加密圈里成了共识，往往就开始表现不佳，到达顶峰。

And previously when the name become very consensus in crypto, it tend to start, you know, not doing well and peak.

但这就像是，我觉得……

But this is like, I think...

而且，显然这取决于市值，HYPE作为一个市值很大的币已经有一段时间了，它非常共识，但仍然在继续上涨并跑赢大盘。

And also, obviously it depends on market cap, hype has been like a huge market cap coin for like quite a while and it's very consensus and yet it's still continuing to go up and outperform.

所以我觉得这实际上非常健康。

So I think that's actually very healthy.

就像它……

Like it's...

一个资产在聪明钱中成为共识，并不意味着它就不能再跑赢了。

Just because an asset is consensus among the smart money doesn't mean it can't outperform anymore.

只要它拥有强大的基本面，未来有着巨大的增长空间。

And as long as it has great fundamentals, great growth ahead.

所以我认为这是我四五年前就开始梦想的事情，现在终于实现了。

So I think this is something that is kind of like what I've dreamed about since, like, four or five years ago and finally play out.

当然，我们希望有更多像 Hyper Liquid 这样的项目可以去投资。

Obviously, we wish that there's a lot more projects like hyper liquid that we can invest in.

但我觉得这其实是非常鼓舞人心的。

But I think that this is like a incredibly encouraging.

我觉得市场还没有到完全机构化的程度，但确实能看到市场参与者的专业度在提升。

I don't think that the market is like very institutional yet, but I think that you do get more sophistication in terms of the market participants.

而且我觉得市场也在出现分化，很多散户已经不再满足于一年赚50%到200%了。

I think that you're also getting some bifurcation where a lot of the retail, they are not happy with making, let's say, 50 to 200% in a year anymore.

他们真正想要的是十倍二十倍的回报，而且他们知道在这些所谓的中市值、聪明钱投资的币里是得不到的。

They really want their 1020x and they know that they can't get it in all this so called mid cap, like a smart money coin.

他们都跑去极左曲线了，也就是那些像 meme 币之类的，支付100k的滑点去追那些市值两三千万或者五千万的项目。

They all go down to the extreme left curve and which is all the meme coin stuff like they're paying the 100 ks shithers to like $23,000,000 or like 50,000,000 market cap.

而所有那些资金量大、不太愿意参与这种游戏的人，我们都会聚集到大币种或者基本面好的中市值项目上。

When all the, you know, people with size that don't really bother to play this game, we all just like congregate to like either do the majors or you do the mid cap good fundamentals.

所以我觉得这样会形成更多的聪明钱共识。

So I think you get a lot more, I think that consensus in terms of smart money.

我觉得这非常健康，我希望这种情况能继续下去。

And I think that's been very healthy and I would love for this to continue to play.

我希望每年都能跑赢比特币，这样我才能募集更多资金，等等。

I would love to outperform Bitcoin every year and that's how I will be able to, like, you know, like, raise raise more money and etcetera here.

我想补充一点，就是你至少得试着想一想，或者推演一下，我今天买的东西，未来的边际买家会是谁。这又回到了Rajiv说的，你在看一个东西，觉得基本面在向好，看起来不错。

I would say, like, one other point is I think you have to also at least try to think about or model out who, like, who will be the marginal buyer of the things that I'm buying today, which, again, to Rajiv's point, like, you're looking at something and you're seeing, oh, the fundamentals are inflecting and, you know, this thing seems good to me.

我觉得，这种想法被市场消化吸收的速度，现在比过去快多了，以前如果你……

I think there is, like, the the the speed at which that idea usually compresses is much quicker today than it was in the past where if you...

你看到某个东西，觉得基本面在逐渐向好。

You're seeing something that you think, hey, the fundamentals are lining up.

我觉得它长期来看会有一些大趋势让它受益。

I think there's general trends that this will benefit from over time.

比如，那个……

Like, that...

我觉得你确实得有个想法，比如，先买一点，然后深入研究，再慢慢加仓，因为现在机会稍纵即逝，比以前快多了。

I think you do have to have an idea of, like, hey, let me own some of this thing and then do more work on it and size into this over time because it just happens way quicker than it used to.

我觉得我还想补充最后一点，就是无论是加密货币还是股票，现在可能都是做长线策略的黄金时代。

I I think one one last point I wanna add is like, for both crypto and probably equity, this is probably the golden age of a long shot strategy.

我觉得这……

I think that use...

通常，在过去，当你做长期投资时，你通常会期望在交易的一边赚钱。

Usually, historically, when you do long shot, you usually expect to make money on one side of your trade.

比如你的另一边就是想要保持中性，但你知道，在牛市中做空通常都会亏钱。

Like your other side is just like, you know, you want to be delta neutral, but you know, you are usually gonna lose money on like, on a short side if you are like in a bull market.

但我觉得今年在股票和加密货币市场，你其实可以在做多和做空上都赚钱，因为有些项目真的不行了，快要倒闭了。

But think this year in both equity and crypto, I think you can actually make money both on a long leg and a short leg because there are some projects that are really not making it and like getting close to shutting down.

你做空这些，你实际上会每六个月就看到它跌50%，然后……

And you're shorting those, you actually gonna keep getting like a 50% down every six months and then...

对，你可以继续做空它。

Yeah, you can actually keep shorting it.

当然，你要平仓然后再做空。

Obviously, you close the trade and re short it again.

但是……

But...

或者，你甚至可以做跨行业的操作。

Or, like, you can even do a cross, like, industry kind of thing.

比如你做多股票做空加密货币，或者反过来做多加密货币做空股票。

Like, you're long equity short crypto or you're, like, long crypto short equity.

然后很多这样的基本面逻辑真的在兑现，它们就一路趋势上涨。

And a lot of these, like, fundamental thesis really playing out and they they just keep trend all the way up.

比如，没人预料到国债会一直跌。

Like like, nobody expected the treasury to, like, keep dropping.

就像，人们……

Like, people...

比如，你看技术面，它简直超卖得离谱。

Like, if you look at technical, it's so fucking oversold.

你应该，比如，停一下。

You should, like, stop.

不对。

Nope.

它就是一直往下跌，一直往下跌。

It just keep going down, keep going down.

基本面驱动太强了。

Like, the fundamental driver just so strong.

它盖过了所有那些仓位驱动的因素。

It can't overpower all the positioning driven, like, factors.

对我们这些做基本面的人来说，也挺意外的，基本面驱动的效果居然能这么明显地推动价格走势。

And it's kinda like for all these, like, fundamental guys, we were surprised how well the fundamental driver has been paying out to drive the price action as well.

你们觉得在这种情况下，比特币还是那个合适的基准吗？

Do you guys think that Bitcoin is still the correct benchmark amidst this?

你可以看到各个板块之间的分化特别大。

I mean, you can just see so much sectoral dispersion.

我一直在想，虽然比特币一直是表现和阿尔法的基准，但它现在还是那个基准吗？

I always wonder, like, obviously it's it's been the benchmark in terms of alpha and up performance, but is that is that still correct?

对我们大多数LP来说，这仍然是最好的基准，因为他们还是把它看作同一个领域。

It is still the best benchmark we have for most of the LP because they still see this as the same space.

你当然可以试着创建一个指数，比如CCI 30或者彭博加密货币指数之类的，但我认为这些并没有那么受欢迎。

You can obviously try to create an index like the CCI 30 or the Bloomberg crypto index, all this thing, but I don't think they just gained the popularity.

而且，因此，对于做规模的基金来说，这仍然是最好的基准。

And also, therefore, a locator that do size, this is still the best benchmark they have.

所以我觉得，不管怎样，

So I think for better or worse, I

是的。

think Yeah.

它仍然是大多数人最关心的基准。

It's still the benchmark that most people care about the most.

没人会高兴当……

I mean, nobody's gonna be happy when...

还有绝对回报。

And also absolute returns.

绝对回报和比特币的超额表现都要看。

Both absolute returns and Bitcoin outperformance.

在我看来，人们只关心这两件事。

That's the only two things people care about in my view.

你们怎么看？

What do guys think?

我没有特别强烈的看法。

I don't have a super strong view.

我觉得跟同行做基准对比也挺合理的。

I think like benchmarking relative to peers is also like a pretty reasonable thing.

而且，我觉得聪明的LP们在这方面做得挺系统的。

And, smart LPs I think do that in a pretty systematic fashion.

对，我觉得那可能是真的。

Yeah, think that's probably true.

尤其是在ETF时代，比如说，如果我是LP，我可以去买iBit，那为什么还要...

Especially in the age of ETFs where it's, hey, if I'm an LP and I can go buy iBit for example, like, why why...

那还有什么必要去投一个跑不赢那个指数的基金呢？

What's the point of allocating to, like, a a fund that doesn't outperform that?

所以我觉得这有点像...

So I think it's like a bay...

算是一个最基本的底线吧。

A bare minimum kind of baseline, I think.

然后，怎么说呢，还可以讨论一下加密货币是不是在变成...

And then, I don't know, you can get into is crypto becoming...

就是说，它是不是越来越不像一个独立的资产类别了？

Like, is it becoming less of its own thing?

所以你应该看看其他那些在公开股票市场或者科技指数里交易的深度科技类资产，或者其他类似的东西。

And so you should look at some of the other kind of deep tech style assets that trade in public equities or technology indices or things like that.

但是，对吧，那...

But, yeah, that...

这就是我目前的想法。

That's kinda like where I sit today.

最后这个话题，我们快要结束了，但特别说回风投这一块，显然大多数...

Last topic here as we wrap up, but speaking specific to the venture side of things, obviously most...

过去大概六年左右，大多数支票都集中在种子阶段的投资上，这取得了一些成功，但也不是全都成功。

The concentration of most checks over the last six years or so have been written in the seed stage of things and that's had some success and it also hasn't.

而到了行业现在这个阶段，什么是产品市场契合，哪些是关键用例，已经变得相当清楚了。

And now, you know, the phase that the industry is at, it's becoming quite clear what has product market fit, what are the key use cases.

我觉得接下来要解决的下一个问题是，好，我们是不是要开始给后期阶段投资了？

And I feel like the next question to solve there is, okay, do we do we go start to fund the later stages?

我们是更侧重增长阶段，而不是种子阶段呢？

Do we focus more on the growth side versus the seed stage side?

还有，你知道的，那些已经证明有产品市场契合的现有协议和公司，你是不是...

And you know, some of these existing protocols and companies that have shown product market fit, Do you...

你们怎么看待未来几年在种子阶段和增长投资之间的侧重点？

How do you guys think about the the concentration between seed stage versus growth investing for this for the next couple of years here?

亚瑟，你先来？

Arthur, wanna start?