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这可能是目前市场上最明显的阶梯式下跌走势了。
This is the most obvious stair step walk down market right now you could possibly see.
这种事你根本编都编不出来。
You can't even make these things up.
简直让人难以置信。
They're so difficult to believe.
这在多个方面都形成了完美的风暴。
It's this perfect storm on so many fronts.
当像关税这样的决定是单边的时，你可以逆转它，然后像塔可这样的事情就能好转，但当你引入实物资产时，就不再是单边决策了。
When it's a unilateral decision like tariffs, you can reverse it and TACO and things work out, but when you introduce assets that are physical, it's no longer a unilateral decision.
塔可就没那么管用了。
Tacos don't work so well.
-这正是交易和应对石油供应冲击时最困难的部分。
-This is the whole difficult part of trading and navigating a supply oil shock.
最初阶段对央行来说极其鹰派。
The initial onset is super hawkish for central banks.
那个转折点在哪里？是应该加息，还是美联储必须降息，而且要迅速降息，因为全球正面临衰退？
Where is that pivot point between should maybe hike here to, oh, the Fed needs to cut and like, we need to cut fast because there's a global recession.
我们正站在即将演变为需求崩溃的悬崖边上。
Like, we are right on the precipice of that turning into demand destruction.
在开始之前，提醒一下，Blockworks的顶级机构会议——数字资产峰会，今年三月将重返纽约。
Before we get started, a quick reminder that Blockworks' premier institutional conference, the Digital Asset Summit, is returning to New York City this March.
今年参会的资产管理规模超过4.2万亿美元，有150位演讲者和750家机构参与。
This year represents more than $4,200,000,000,000 in assets under management with a 150 speakers and 750 institutions attending.
演讲嘉宾包括SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯、CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格、美联储理事史蒂文·莫兰以及Tether首席执行官保罗·卡多尼奥，还有无数其他高管、资产管理人、监管者和塑造行业的核心加密基础设施建设者。
Speakers include SEC chair Paul Atkins, CFTC chair Michael Selig, Fed governor Steven Moran, and Tether CEO Paolo Cardonio, alongside countless other executives, asset managers, regulators, and the core crypto infrastructure builders shaping the industry.
如果你想了解2026年数字资产的真正机构级视角，数字资产峰会就是发生这一切的地方。
If you want serious institutional grade view of digital assets in 2026, Digital Asset Summit is where it happens.
使用代码FORWARD200可享受200美元优惠，详情请访问blockworks.co/events。
Use code forward 200 for $200 off and head to blockworks.co/events for more details.
在FORWARD指南中提及的任何内容均不构成购买或出售任何投资或产品的建议。
Nothing said on FORWARD guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.
本播客仅用于信息参考，节目中任何人的观点均为其个人意见，而非财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的观点。
This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.
我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队可能持有所讨论公司基金或项目的头寸。
Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.
一如既往，投资区块链技术存在风险，条款和条件适用。
As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply.
请自行做研究。
Do your own research.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到《FORWARD Guidance》的又一期汇总节目，本周只有我们两人搭档。
Welcome back to another roundup edition of FORWARD Guidance saying it's just the duo this week.
我们的朋友泰勒病得很重，不是持仓问题，而是身体不适。
Our boy Tyler is down bad, not in positions, but in sickness.
他得了严重的流感、病毒，或者类似的东西。
He's got a nasty flu or virus or something.
所以没能参加。
So couldn't quite make it.
所以我们很想你，泰勒。
So we we miss you, Tyler.
所以这周就我们两个人了。
So it's just us two this week.
昆恩，最近怎么样？
What's going on, Quinn?
最搞笑的是，他前几天发消息说他生病了，还希望挺过去。
The funniest thing was in his message when he was telling us the other day he's sick and he's hoping to bow through.
他说：‘不过话说回来，我瘦了八磅。’
He's like, well, on the bright side, I lost, like, eight pounds.
这简直就是中年男人会说的话。
That's, like, such an middle aged, like, man thing to say.
是的。
Yeah.
他下周会来。
He's gonna be showing up next week.
我们本来想说他现在在用司美格鲁肽。
We were gonna say he's on the Ozempic now.
他卧床不起，但他却说，是的。
He's bedridden, but but he's like, yeah.
至少我瘦了八磅。
At least I lost eight pounds.
那天应该也没那么糟吧，我想。
Must not be too bad that day, I guess.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
你得当心
You gotta watch out for
那个爸爸肚腩啊，老兄。
that dad bod, man.
没错。
Exactly.
现在啊，老兄，真是疯狂的一周。
Now, man, crazy week.
又是新的一周。
Another week.
又是另一周，没错，另一周在监控情况，试图搞清楚到底发生了什么。
Another, yeah, another situation monitoring week, trying to figure out what the hell's going on.
深陷战争迷雾中。
Stuck in the fog of war.
你知道的，就五分钟，你听到一种说法，五分钟后又听到完全相反的说法。
You know, it's for five minutes, you know, you you hear one thing and then five minutes later, you hear the complete opposite.
真的真的很难搞清楚到底发生了什么。
It's really, really hard to figure out what the hell's going on.
你知道吗，就在过去几天里，比如你，你之前还在说，哦，我们不会布雷。
You know, like, just over the past couple days, you for example, you know, you have one you have a round talking about, oh, we're gonna you know, we're not gonna lay mines.
然后美国，他们却在布雷，或者即将布雷。
And then The USA, we, they're laying mines or about to lay mines.
然后五分钟之后，他们又说其实不会布雷。
And then five minutes later, they're saying that that they're actually not gonna lay mines.
接着又说我们实际上摧毁了一大批水雷。
And then they're saying that we actually destroyed a bunch of mines.
现在伊朗又说他们从来就没布过任何水雷。
And then now Iran's saying that they have never put any mines.
所以这就是战争迷雾啊，SIOPs 很强大。
So FOG of war men, SIOPs are strong.
真的很难搞清楚到底发生了什么。
Really hard to figure out what the hell's going on.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为我在Substack和其他地方一直传达的主要信息是，每个人都应该敞开心扉，接受更广泛的可能性，质疑一切——你听到的每一句话、我们说的每一件事，全部都要质疑。
I think my main message that I've been saying in Substack and different things is just everybody should open their minds to a much wider array of possibilities and question everything, everything you hear, everything we're saying, everything.
因为过去一年，尤其是自从特朗普最近上台以来，大家都已经习惯了市场对他每一句话的反应。
Because over the last year, really since this last start of this recent Trump presidency, everyone's just grown accustomed to the market movements off his every word.
随着他对自己掌控市场能力的自负和信心不断增强，公众对他具备这种能力的普遍看法也随之上升。
And as his hubris in confidence and ability to control the markets at his fingertips has risen, so has general sentiment as to his abilities to do so.
股市是前瞻性的，其定价基于市场情绪、盈利流向等因素。
Stocks are forward looking, they're priced off sentiment, earnings flows, things like that.
当像关税这样的决定是单方面做出时，你可以逆转它，事情最终会顺利解决。
When it's a unilateral decision like tariffs, you can reverse it and TACO and things work out.
但当你引入需要实际持有、用于特定目的的实物资产时，如果这不再是单方面的决定，那么‘Taco式’的解决方法就不再有效了。
But when you introduce assets that are physical, required to be owned in hand for whatever purpose, and it's no longer a unilateral decision, Tacos don't work so well.
我只是觉得每个人都真的、真的、真的需要对一切保持怀疑态度，问问自己：特朗普会不会说任何话，除了‘战争快结束了，我们赢了’？
I just think everybody really, really, really needs to take everything with a grain of salt because ask yourself, is Trump ever going to say anything besides the war's almost over, We won.
这是一次巨大的成功。
It's a great success.
但实际上，所有这些都不是，但在美国你永远听不到这种说法。
It's everything but those, practically speaking, but you will never hear that from anybody in The US.
事情就是这么运作的。
That's just how these things work.
所以去看看数据，看看你每天看到的新型油轮被炸的视频。
So look at the data, look at the videos you're seeing of new tankers bombed every day.
看看正在发生的实际情况，而不是人们说什么，从那里得出你的真相，因为这正是关键所在。
Look at the actual stuff happening and not what people are saying and derive your truth from that, because that's a big part of these.
需要社会凝聚力。
Need social cohesion.
你需要政治上的认可才能做这些事，而他们实际上并没有这种认可。
You need political approval to be able to do these things, which they arguably don't really have.
他所说的话通常都是胡说八道，但这次会升级一个档次。
It's always malarkey, usually, with what he's saying, but it's it's it's gonna be taken up a notch
因为这类事情。
with these types things.
在战争中，战争和宣传之所以密不可分，是因为双方——无论是伊朗还是美国——都有其原因。
In war, like, there's a reason that war and propaganda go hand in hand in glove, like, for both sides, like, for Iran and The US just as much.
我认为现在尤其重要的是，确实如此。
And I think it's it's exceptionally important right now to yeah.
当这些头条新闻出现时，你试图监控局势，就需要深入挖掘，弄清楚这些信息究竟来自哪里。
As those headlines come across and you're trying to monitor the situation, like you need to drill down and figure out, okay, where is this coming through?
源头是什么？
What's the source?
什么时候出现的？
When did it come?
这是十二小时前的噪音吗？
Is this noise from twelve hours ago?
这是否改变了当时发生的事情？
Is this a change to what happened then?
是的，现在你不能轻易相信任何传言。
Yeah, you can't just take things for word right now.
我确实意识到自己也有这样的问题，而且我也承认这一点。
And I'm definitely cognizant and guilty of that.
我一直在提醒自己要放慢节奏，不要对新闻标题做出即时反应，因为一件事可能刚说这样，五分钟之后却完全相反。
I've been trying to remind myself just to slow down and not react to headlines because, know, one thing could be saying one thing and then five minutes later it's the complete opposite.
所以，你真的必须放慢脚步，努力在纷乱的信息中交叉验证，弄清楚真相。
So yeah, you really just got to slow down, try to really triangulate through the noise and figure it out.
即便如此，这仍然非常困难。
And even then, like it's very difficult.
就像，我们如今正处于一场迷雾战争之中。
Like it's just, yeah, we're in the fog war now.
而战争中最重要的组成部分之一，就是让平民支持你的行动。
And one of the most important components of war getting your civilians to try to support you in that endeavour.
归根结底，这关乎政治上的意愿。
Like it's, at the end of the day, it's about political appetite for it.
因此，这些领导人必须努力动员他们的支持者，真正去支持这一行动。
So it's very important for these leaders to try to rally their bases to actually try to support it.
那就是他们的想法所在。
That's where their head is at.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这种‘什么都不会发生’的说法所带来的后果，就是对那些试图从战略和批判性思维、第一性原理角度分析这些问题的人产生蔑视或嘲讽，说什么‘你是个地缘政治专家’。
I mean, the other thing is just like what this nothing ever happens mantra has produced is this like disdain or poking fun at people who try to dissect these things from a strategic and critical thinking lens and first order principles and, Oh, you're a geopolitical expert.
哦，你现在成伊朗政治专家了，诸如此类的挖苦。
Oh, now that you're an Iran politics expert and all of these jabs.
但要为所有这样做的人点赞，因为你们没有轻信表面信息，而是在认真思考什么是可能的。
But kudos to everyone doing that because you're not taking stuff at face value and you're actually thinking through what is possible.
哦，上周特朗普在那条推文里——或者说是哪一天来着，我都搞混了——他说我们俘获了‘直海峡’。
Oh, Trump last week in that tweet or was it whatever day, I'm losing track, he said, We captured the straight.
是的。
Yeah.
他说：‘我们俘获了霍尔木兹海峡。'
He said, We captured the straight of Hormuz.
人们正在推高纳斯达克的2%。
People are bidding up NASDAQ 2% of this.
如果你有疑问或不确定，就像费利克斯说的，放慢脚步，花上十到二十分钟，用AI、Claude、GPT或Gemini等工具来回探讨，思考一下这里有哪些可能性？
If you have questions, you're uncertain, like Felix said, slow down and spend ten, twenty minutes with AI, with Claude and GPT and Gemini or whatever your tool is, and just bounce things back and forth and realize what are the possibilities here?
因为这已经打开了一整罐蠕虫，不再只是由个人随意决定的事情了。
Because it's a whole can of worms that's been opened and it's no longer just at the discretion of one individual.
嗯。
Mhmm.
是的。
Yeah.
这太重要了。
It's huge.
好的。
Alright.
既然这个重大前提已经澄清了，让我们来探讨一下我们是如何思考这些问题的。
Well, with that huge caveat away, let's try to pontificate on how we're thinking about things.
也许直接梳理一遍会更有帮助。
Might be useful to just walk through.
我们上星期四做了记录，之后发生的事情按时间顺序来看。
Know, we recorded last week on Thursday and what's been happening since sequentially.
我认为其中一个重要事件是周五发布的下降报告。
And I think a big one there is is the drop report that came out on Friday.
这是一个相当有趣的报告。
And it was it was pretty interesting one.
根据各方面来看，情况非常糟糕。
By all accounts, very bad.
我理解的方式是，是的。
I I I would say the way I digested it is that yeah.
我的再加速理论确实受到了这股水流的冲击。
My my reacceleration thesis is definitely that the water through through that.
还有就是油价翻倍了，这肯定会扼杀任何再加速的理论。
And then also just the fact that oil doubled, like, just that's that's gonna kill that's gonna kill any sort of reacceleration thesis.
所以，好吧。
So okay.
这就被排除了。
It's like that's that's off the table.
然后你尝试从那里继续推进和迭代。
And then and then you try to move and iterate from there.
我想知道你从这次下跌支撑和市场反应中得出的结论是什么。
I'm curious what your takeaway was from that draw support and how the market reacted.
我知道我们都一直在密切关注债券，但债券对这次长期最具有衰退特征的下跌支撑毫无反应。
I know we've both been looking pretty closely at bonds and bonds did not care that we had the most recessionary draw support in a long time.
是的。
Yeah.
在第36页幻灯片上，我觉得是这一页，我有两个图表，觉得很好地总结了这一点。
On slide 36, I think it is, I just have two diagrams that I thought summarize it pretty well.
第一个是，我认为左侧的要点是，趋势明显向下，而且一直如此。
The first is, I think the takeaway on the left side there is just that the trend is obviously down and it's been this way.
目前没有任何政策表明你应该反向操作劳动力市场的下行趋势。
There's nothing from policy right now that says you should fade the downward trend in labor.
这根本不是人工智能导致的失业。
This is just not AI job losses.
正如你所说，油价翻了一倍，汽油价格、屋顶材料、食品价格都涨了。
Now, like you said, oil doubled, gas prices, roofing, food prices, roofing.
我三周前就预订了接下来几次旅行的航班，当时对机票价格之高感到震惊。
I booked a bunch of flights for my next bunch of trips three weeks ago before this happened, and I was shocked at how expensive flights were.
我当时想，天啊，汽油都涨到60美元了。
I was like, Damn, gas is like $60.
他们到底在干什么？
What are they doing?
我现在都不想看了。
I don't even want to look now.
右边的图表是高盛对潜在就业增长趋势的估算，我认为它整合了除非农数据之外的其他指标。
Then the chart on the right is this underlying trend job growth estimate from Goldman that incorporates other metrics, I think, besides just NFP.
我想指出的一点是，你之前看到负值下滑至七月，那是关税影响、一次性关税效应和经济衰退担忧造成的，其中很大一部分源于巨大的不确定性，而我们现在面临的不确定性甚至更严重，因为未来走向不再由一个人决定。
The one thing I'd like to point out here is you had the dip down in negative into July of the sort of like tariff trend, one time tariff effects and recession scares, which a lot of it was in a huge uncertainty scare, which we're experiencing almost worse now because there's more uncertainty because it's not up to one person what happens from here.
然后你看到这里出现了反弹，对吧？
Then you see this rebound, right?
从七月到一月的反弹以及就业增长的趋势，背后有几个原因。
The rebound there into January and the trend of job growth was a couple of things.
显然，有资本支出法案和OBB资本支出激励措施。
Obviously, the CapEx bills, OBB CapEx incentives.
你可能还提前享受了今年即将实施的其他税收激励政策。
You had probably front running of some of the other tax incentives hitting this year.
另一个重要因素是美联储降息。
And then obviously the other big one was the Fed cuts.
美联储在去年下半年迅速实施了一系列降息，从而刺激了经济活动。
The Fed jammed through a bunch of rate cuts in the second half of last year, and that bounced things.
而我们现在面临的情况是，这种提振作用很可能因多种原因逐渐减弱。
Here we are with that very likely petering out for multiple reasons.
第一，美联储政策大幅回撤；第二，由于汽油、石油和大宗商品价格极高，需求遭受重创。
One, the Fed policy getting shifted way back, and two, a huge demand hit from super high gas, oil and commodity prices.
所以
So
从经济角度来看，情况非常棘手。
it's super dicey from an economic standpoint.
顺便提一下债券，我们一直认为债券是极其糟糕的投资，你可能会想，在宏观投资中，要做得好，
Just to touch on bonds, which we've been harping on as just atrocious investments for a while, is you say to yourself, it's a classic thing in macro to be good at investing.
你必须同时把握住十个真相。
You have to hold like 10 truths at once.
一个真相是，经济衰退的可能性确实大幅上升了。
One truth is, yeah, the odds of a recession just went up huge.
但另一个真相是，市场却创下了历史新高。
And then the other truth, though, is, well, the markets are at all time highs.
税收收入、资本利得和政府收入，全部创下历史新高。
Tax receipts, capital gains and revenues to the government, all time highs.
我们正看到创纪录的糟糕就业增长，而赤字仍高达5.5%。
And we're seeing record bad recessionary job growth and the deficit is still at 5.5%.
当这些情况恶化时，他们不得不刺激经济，试图赢得中期选举，做各种事情，结果赤字却急剧扩大。
So when those things go down and they have to stimulate and they try to win the midterms and they do all these things and the deficits just blow out.
所以无论他们做还是不做，都陷入困境：如果不试图刺激市场，赤字会扩大；如果试图刺激市场来提振经济，赤字同样会扩大。
So they're screwed if they do and screwed if they don't, because the deficits blow out if they don't try and pump the markets and the deficits blow out if they do try and stimulate to pump the markets.
债券就在这里，仿佛在说：‘天哪。’
That's where bonds are just sitting here like, Oh, crap.
是的，我觉得这将会很有趣。
Yeah, I think it's going be interesting.
从当前的水平来看，我认为这个交易策略是：30年期国债收益率为4.9%。
The trade from right here, I would say, levels, I mean, the thirty years at 4.9.
所以这不仅仅是一次快速的波动。
So this isn't just a rapid move.
从短期来看，这一点可能没那么明显，但从长期来看，情况很严峻，因为与此同时，日本和欧洲等全球市场正因能源短缺而面临压力，而它们在进入这场危机时的库存水平已处于历史低位。
It's a little less obvious here, I would say, in the immediate term, but secularly, it's tough because you're also going to have the pressure from global yields from Japan Europe who are short energy into this crisis at a time when they went into the crisis with record low inventory levels.
我最近也在写这个话题。
I was writing about that, too.
日本、韩国和欧洲的天然气库存已降至2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最低水平。
Japan, South Korea and Europe were carrying the lowest natural gas inventory since the start of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
这种事你根本编不出来。
You can't even make these things up.
简直让人难以置信。
They're so difficult to believe.
这在多个层面上都形成了完美的风暴。
It's this perfect storm on so many fronts.
而且，债券正处在风暴的核心。
And yeah, bonds are right at the heart of it.
你要明白，你不必非得参与其中。
Just know you don't have to take it.
如果你不想对债券做出判断，说实话，我现在态度更模糊了。
If you don't want to take a view on them, which I don't know, I'm more mixed now.
我 definitely 看跌，但我不确定这是否是目前资本的最佳用途。
I'm definitely bearish, but I don't know if it's the best use of my capital at this point.
但你知道，你只是在等待那一天，就像解放一样，届时所有风险资产都抛售，而债券也不再安全。
But you know, you're just waiting for that day like liberation where where you get, like, all risk off and bonds are not safe.
是的。
Yeah.
关于这一点，我最近一直在思考的是，我认为2020年之后，长期债券已经转变为风险资产，因为主要买家变成了国债基差交易对冲基金。
Well, you know what I've been thinking lot about on that point is that I think post 2020, what's happened is that long bonds have transformed into a risk asset because the marginal buyer has been treasury basis trade hedge funds.
当这些交易员被清退并去杠杆时，他们需要平仓。
And when, when those guys get carried out and get degrossed, they need to unwind things.
因此，他们在抛售债券。
And so they're selling bonds.
所以这非常值得思考，我的意思是，我们已经多次讨论过这个问题，但如今每次发生危机时，债券都会被牵连，因为主要买家现在是对冲基金的基差交易员。
So it's really interesting to think about, I mean, we've been, we've talked about this so many times, but anytime there's a crisis these days, bonds get caught up because the marginal buyer is hedge fund basis traders now.
而他们必须平掉这些头寸，或者被强制平仓，诸如此类。
And and they need to close out those positions or get liquidated or what have you.
所以美国国债的趋势已经转变为风险资产。
So treasury bonds have trend been transformed into a risk asset.
而现在，是的，当你遇到那种‘解放日’式的平仓时，它就会像整个轮动中的其他资产一样被卷入其中。
And now, yeah, when you get like the liberation doll liberation day style unwinds, it gets caught up just like with everything in in in the the rotation.
过去六年里，所谓的避险效应根本就没有出现过。
The safety has not happened, like, at all in the last six years, really.
没错。
No.
我之所以无法看空黄金，就是因为美联储现在正在实施量化宽松，每年有五千亿美金的储备管理购买。
And and I can't this is why I can't get bearish on gold either because, I mean, one, the Fed's doing QE now, dollars 500,000,000,000 a year of reserve management purchases.
这个市场仍在被打压。
This market's still getting clapped.
我都不想想象到今年年底或未来二十四个月内，QE会飙升到什么程度。
I don't even want to envision what QI is going to ramp to by the end of this year or next twenty four months.
收益率是其中一个重要因素，因为正如你所说，这是最糟糕的情况——至少当你持有黄金时，黄金还会按自己的节奏上涨、上涨、再上涨。
Yields are a big part of that because, yeah, like you said, it's the worst of all worlds because at least when you're in gold, gold does its thing, trends up, trends up, trends up.
当所有风险资产都抛售时，它们就像其他一切一样变成一个项目，经历下跌日，但随后又被抄底。
Then when all risk pukes, becomes a line item just like everything else and it has its down day, but then it gets scooped up.
这只是一个去杠杆化的问题。
It's just a deleveraging thing.
债券趋势下行，持续下行，抛售吧。
Bonds are trend down, trend down, puke on that.
它们在之后会小幅反弹，然后继续下行。
They rally a little bit after, and then just keep trending down.
它们简直太糟糕了。
It's just like They're horrible.
风险回报比太差了。
Terrible risk for reward.
是的。
Yeah.
我们来谈谈黄金吧，因为我觉得这和我对石油及整个事件序列的思考有关。
You know, let's talk about the gold thing for a little bit because I think that ties into how I'm thinking about the sequence of events here on oil and everything.
对我来说，这就是我的想法：直接形式以及由此衍生的一切，正在极度暴露欧洲和亚洲市场，而美国则相对不受影响。
And for me, this is how I'm thinking about it, which is that straight form is and everything that flows out of it is acutely exposing European and Asian markets as opposed to The US.
这只是一个我一直在研究的图表，展示了能源对本国再利用的依赖程度。
So this is just one chart that that I've been been playing around with that just shows the the energy dependency on the home reuse.
你可以看到，这主要集中在亚太地区和欧洲。
You can see it's largely Asia Pacific and Europe.
美国基本上实现了能源自给自足。
Like America is largely energy independent.
此外，如果他们真的需要，还可能存在对该能源产品的出口禁令。
And then there's also the potential of like an export ban on that energy product if they really need to.
我对美国其实并不太担心。
I'm really not that worried about The US.
我更担心的是欧洲和亚洲。
I'm worried about Europe and Asia.
因此，如果这种情况持续下去，我担心的是它们的货币以及陷入即将来临的衰退的风险。
And therefore, I'm worried about their currencies and their exposure to an imminent recession if this continues.
所以，如果当前这种直接的公式持续下去，将导致亚洲和欧洲市场严重短缺这些至关重要的资源。
So, okay, if straight up formulas continue to stay closed like it is right now, that's going to lead to major shortages of of these very important pieces of resources towards Asian and European markets.
这将使它们成为最先受到经济衰退冲击的地区。
That's going to lead to they're probably going be the first to be hit with a recession.
因此，它们的货币相对于美元将走弱。
Therefore, their currencies are going to weaken relative to the US dollar.
与此同时，当所有人都在寻求美元这一避险资产时，我们已经讨论过，对美元的避险需求依然存在。
At the same time that everybody is trying to do this flight to safety thing to the dollar, we've we've talked about how there's still that flight to safety to the dollar.
只是没有人愿意持有与美元相关的长期资产，但对美元本身的需求依然强劲。
It's just nobody wants to own duration related to the dollar, but there's still that demand for the dollar itself.
因此，美元资金流入。
So that comes in.
美元仍然是储备货币，并且拥有能源独立和出口禁令的对冲优势。
There's still the reserve currency and they have this hedge of energy independence and export bans.
它们能够预测并对冲自身在这方面的风险，而欧洲和亚洲则无法做到。
They can predict, they can hedge themselves from any sort of exposure to this compared to Europe and Asia.
所以我是这么想的，我现在对美元极度看涨。
So the way I'm thinking about it is that I'm extremely bullish the dollar here.
我认为，当你将这与美元的持仓情况对比时，美元可能会大幅上涨。
I think I think it could severely rally when you contrast that with with positioning of the dollar.
正如我上周所说，每个人都押注美元走跌。
Everybody, like I said last week, everybody's in on these dollar bearish trades.
而欧洲和亚洲的暴露程度最高。
And and Europe and Asia are the most exposed.
因此，你用像欧元这样的货币篮子来体现这一点，目前欧元市场预期加息。
So then you you you show that with a basket of the Dixie index of currencies like the Euro is pricing in a hike right now.
我觉得这简直是荒谬至极。
I think that's the most absurd thing ever.
是的，这是个好观点。
Yeah, that's a good point.
我的意思是，我不确定。
Like, I don't know.
欧元现在完全走反了。
Like, the the euro is is completely offside here.
随着这种情况发生，人们意识到欧元可能即将陷入衰退，我们确实需要促使欧洲央行降息。
And and as that occurs, and the realization hits that actually the euro could be in an imminent recession, that that euro, like, we we need to press the cuts at the ECB.
美元将疯狂上涨。
Dollar's gonna rally like crazy.
所以，回到黄金，我是这么想的：我预计美元会出现剧烈上涨，而黄金可能会被牵连，尽管从中长期来看，我对黄金极度看涨，因为在危机中没人想持有国债，但短期内它还是会受到牵连。
So so to bring it all towards gold and how I'm thinking about it is that I could see a really, like, violent dollar rally, and I think gold would get hung up in there even though on a medium term basis, I'm absurdly bullish gold because nobody wants to own treasuries in a crisis, I think initially it would get caught up with that.
所以，就是这样。
So that's Mhmm.
对。
Yeah.
挑挑这里面的毛病吧。
Poke some holes there.
不。
No.
我刚才在回复你的一些推文，我的意思是，我和你处境一样。
I I I was replying to some of your tweets with my I mean, I'm in the same boat.
我原本预期周一、周二会出现反弹，确实反弹了，但我持有一些黄金类资产，结果反弹得并不明显。
I don't I was playing for a bounce in the Monday, Tuesday and we got the bounce, but I was in some, you know, I was in like some golden stuff and it didn't bounce too much.
幸运的是，我更多地配置了天然气、石油股和农产品大宗商品，我对这些领域非常看涨。
Luckily, I was heavier in like nat gas, oil equities and in the agriculture commodities, which I'm really bullish on.
但确实，很难与美元对抗。
But yeah, it just it's just hard to fight that dollar.
如果你看第39页，它清楚地展示了那个时间点。
If you go to side 39, it shows basically the point in time.
这张图表很好地呈现了美国何时
Nice chart of when The U.
成为这种石油货币的过程，因为人们常常忘记，我们是全球最大的天然气和石油生产国。
S.
成为这种石油货币的过程，因为人们常常忘记，我们是全球最大的天然气和石油生产国。
Became this petro currency because, I mean, people do forget we're the largest producer of natural gas and oil.
所以在这种情况下，这是一个巨大的优势。
So it's huge, huge advantage when it comes to these situations.
而且，你知道，这种状况在2010年代和2020年代发生了变化，我们开始出口多于进口。
And, you know, that changed over the course of, you know, the 2010s and the 2020s, where we started to export more than we imported.
但如果你看我认为真正有趣的地方，那就是现在是中期选举年，因为去查看第38页，就在前一页，它显示了美国。
But if you go to the thing that I think where it starts to become interesting is the fact that it's like a midterm year, because go to 'thirty eight, the one right before, and this shows U.
美。
S.
平均汽油支出。
Average gasoline spending.
因此，作为整体，我们对能源短缺具有相对于世界其他地区的免疫力。
So while we're immune as an aggregate from these energy shortages relative to the rest of the world.
但当你深入分析时，美。
When you dive down, U.
美。
S.
汽油支出占家庭收入的平均比例。
Averages gasoline spending as a percentage of household income.
所以，你知道，这对低收入群体简直是毁灭性的打击。
So, you know, it just smokes the lower class.
你可以将这一点应用到所有正在涨价的基础商品上，比如食品和农产品，以及所有能源。
And you could apply this to every base commodity that's inflating, like food and agriculture commodities, all energy.
因此，政府将面临一个极其艰难的困境，他们必须解决这个问题，因为这将像关税一样，最沉重地打击同一群人。
So the administration is going to have a really tough, tough dilemma on their hands whereby they're going to need to figure this out because it's going to hit the same people in many senses that the tariffs hit the hardest.
回想一下2025年，当主街迎来他们的时刻时，主街整整六天成为了焦点。
Flashback to 2025 when Main Street had their day for It was Main Street's turn for six days.
看看罗素小盘股。
Look at the Russell small caps.
它正被彻底碾压。
It's getting absolutely cremated.
而如今，我们又回到了2026年，恰好是主街再次迎来六天高光时刻的时候。
And once again, here we are in 2026, literally the same time when Main Street had their turn for another six days.
所以过去两年里总共只有两周。
So that's two weeks in total over the last two years.
不过，你关于美元的观点我明白了。
But no, your point is taken on the dollar.
想想看，就说今天吧，你看到黄金一整天都在持续下跌。
Think like, I mean, even today you saw how gold just just leaked all day.
它一直在下跌。
It just leaked.
我觉得流动性也很差。
And I just think liquidity is really bad, too.
所以，如果你是任何一个国家，比如中国、日本，或者所有这些能源短缺的国家，你就得卖你能卖的东西，而不是你本来想卖的。
So if you're if you're any country, you're China, you're Japan, you're all these nations short energy, you need to sell what you can, not necessarily what you want to.
如果你囤积了大量黄金，但你的国家即将面临粮食和能源短缺，那你很可能需要减持一部分黄金。
If you just amass a bunch of gold holdings, your country's about to face a food and energy shortage, You probably need to rotate a little of those.
如果你翻到第41页，我觉得关于亚洲市场的这部分内容相当有意思。
If you go to slide 41, thought this was quite interesting in terms of Asian markets here.
台湾的未平仓保证金水平在左侧达到了历史纪录。
Taiwan, their outstanding margin debt level on the left is just record.
你几乎可以将台湾半导体指数图表与这个数据对比，它曾一跃成为全球市值前五。
You could probably plot a Taiwan semiconductor chart up against this, and that thing catapulted into the top five market caps globally.
但就最近的抛售而言，这些保证金并未真正减少。
But in terms of the recent sell off, that margin hasn't really unwound.
而右侧则是韩国的杠杆股票押注，同样包括未平仓保证金贷款。
Then on the right is the Korean leveraged stock bets, outstanding margin loans as well.
我非常确定美国也存在同样的趋势。
So I'm pretty sure this trend is the same in The US.
这种主题是——你可能会深入探讨——对冲市场中，没有人真正去杠杆。
It's this theme of, and you're probably going to get into it, the hedge market where no one's actually degrossing.
每个人都只是买入看跌期权来对冲，因此所有人都自称已经对冲了风险。
Everyone's just buying puts protection, so everyone's quote unquote hedged.
但问题是，看跌期权已经数周没有带来任何收益了。
But the problem is puts haven't made any money for weeks.
所以市场正在下跌。
So the market's going down.
每个人的多头仓位都在下跌。
Everybody's longs are going down.
他们不断亏损、亏损、亏损，但期权却没赚到钱，因为波动率太高了。
They're bleeding, bleeding, bleeding, but no puts are making money because the vol is so elevated.
你是在极高的水平买入的，而时间价值正在迅速耗损，期权正在不断贬值。
You bought them at extremely high levels and your theta's burning and they're just decaying.
这真是最大的痛苦，因为没人从他们的看跌期权中赚到钱。
This is truly max pain because no one's making money on their puts.
没人真正去杠杆，所以他们仍然严重做多。
No one's actually degrossed, so they're still massively long.
然后今天我说了点东西，这是目前你所能见到的最明显的阶梯式下跌行情。
And then eventually, I said something today, this is the most obvious stair step walk down market right now you could possibly see.
但最终，这种情况不可能永远持续下去。
Eventually, it doesn't just stay that way forever.
最终，人们明白了，好吧，糟了。
Eventually, people get the hint and say, Okay, crap.
是的。
Yeah.
看，这是看跌期权和看涨期权偏斜的图表。
Mean, so here's that chart of a put and call skew.
当市场如此偏离时，你不可能让所有人都从看跌期权中赚钱。
You can't let everybody make money on puts when it's this offside.
就是不行。
It's just, you can't.
这不符合市场的逻辑。所以，我的意思是，我一直想弄清楚该怎么理解这一点。
That's not how markets So yeah, I mean, here's, I've been trying to figure out how to think about it.
比如，上周我谈过即将到来的三月期权到期日，以及它可能成为一个关键节点——就像吉姆·卡斯坦常说的‘弱势窗口’，尤其是在三重巫指期间，市场上已经存在大量对冲行为。
Like I, last week I talked a bit about this March OpEx coming and how that could be a point of, you know, like Jim Carsten always calls it a window of weakness, especially around the triple witching where there's just there's just so much hedging out there already.
现在这些期权的未平仓合约实在太多了，而且看跌期权的持仓占比极高。
There's just so much, yeah, just open interest on all these options right now and it leans so put heavy.
很难出现这种自我强化的平仓，人们经常争论，我们到底处于正Gamma环境还是负Gamma环境？
It's hard to get that reflexive unwind, you know, and people will often debate whether, okay, are we in a positive or negative gamma environment?
因为，如果你处于负Gamma环境，交易商的卖出行为会进一步引发更多卖出。
Because, know, if you're in a negative gamma environment, then selling begets selling by dealers.
但如果处于正Gamma环境，他们就会在下跌时买入。
But if it's positive gamma, they'll buy the dip.
我不确定。
It's I don't know.
我还没看清楚目前整体情况到底如何。
I I haven't seen a clear read on on where that all stands.
但我觉得，单从看跌期权偏斜来看，事实就是每个人都想要看跌期权，却没人愿意平仓。
But I think when you just look at put skew here, it's just the fact is that everybody wants puts and nobody wants to de gross yet.
他们只是希望可以兑现这些看跌期权的价值。
And they're just hoping that they can monetize these puts.
但因为人人都持有，而且他们是在隐含波动率很高的时候买入的，所以没人能获利——这让我想起2022年，当时大家都持有股票，股市几乎下跌了30%？
But since everybody has them and they bought them with implied vol where it is, which is elevated, like, nobody's It reminds me a lot of 2022 where everybody kept like equities went down almost, what was it, like 30%?
但没人真正赚到钱，因为大家都被数据坑了。
But nobody really made money because everybody just got screwed on data.
是的。
Yeah.
几周前我就说过，我觉得早在二月上中旬就该开始退出了。今年年初我用了一些看跌期权敞口，最近我一直极度看空，而且这种看空情绪还在不断加剧。
Was saying a couple of weeks ago, I think it was early to mid Feb to start getting out of I was using some put exposure early in the year, and I've been fucking bearish as all bears can get recently, and it's just been increasing.
但曾经有一段时间，我看到看跌期权偏度上升，买入波动率也在上升，于是我通过买入看跌期权来对冲风险，虽然并不总是这么做。
But there was a point in time where I was seeing this put SKU rise, I was seeing the buy vols rise, and I was buying protection via puts, often not always into that.
在某个时刻，你可能会极度看空，想要保护仓位，脑子里充满各种想法。
There's a moment in time where it's like, you might be super bearish, you might want to protect, you might have all these things in your head.
你只是觉得：我需要看跌期权，因为它们能在下行时给我提供很好的保护。
You're just like, I need puts because they're going to provide me some great protection on the downside.
我甚至可能因此赚钱。
I might even make money.
但当你仔细看事实和数据时，就会发现：等等，考虑到隐含波动率和这些期权的成本，这些期权需要一个即刻且巨大的价格波动才能奏效。
And but when you look at the facts and the data and it's like, hold on a second, I need like with implied vol and the cost of these things, these these options, need like an immediate and massive move.
否则，你会在所有情况下都亏钱，只能对自己说：我必须违背通常有效的做法。
Otherwise you lose like every scenario and you sort of have to just say to yourself, I have to go against my normal, like what might normally work.
波动率太高了。
Vol is too expensive.
你不知道时机何时会真正兑现，不如直接全部转为现货。
You don't know when timing is going to actually play out and just switch everything to spot.
我认为人们越早这么做，结果就越好，因为再次强调，如果你一直在做空这个市场并进行轮动，这周就有好几天，我以为当期货上涨时我的仓位会大幅亏损，但我的账户居然还是盈利的。
I think the sooner people have done that, the better they fare because, again, if you've been shorting this market and rotating, there's multiple days this week where I thought I was going be down pretty good when futures were green and my book was still up.
知道吗，等等，因为你是
Know, Wait, as a because you're
是因为隐含波动率一直保持在高位吗？
because the implied vol stayed elevated?
不是，只是因为我做空了正确的东西。
No, just because I was shorting the right things.
当软件股见顶时，我转仓到软件股做空，然后在周一退出了半导体仓位，转而买入软件和防御性股票，比如沃尔玛和好市多。
Rotated into software shorts when they peaked out, then I got out of my semis on Monday, rotated that in a software and defensive like Walmart, Costco.
但作为交易员，有时你清楚自己的判断是对的，在本该输的日子，你反而赢了。
But there's times as a trader when you know your views right, when the days you should lose, you still win.
而在本该赢的日子，你会大获全胜。
And the days you should win, you win big.
然后情况也会反过来。
And then it goes in reverse, too.
你必须留意这种信号。
And you have to listen to that.
比如当情况反过来时，你会想：天啊，我不该亏这么多的。
Like it goes in reverse where you're like, Man, I shouldn't be down this much.
我觉得我没错得这么离谱。
I don't think I'm this wrong.
但等等，我确实错了。
But wait, I am.
市场看起来根本没动，但我的仓位却被清掉了。
And it doesn't even look like the market's moving, but my positions are getting cleaned.
这大概就是买看跌期权时的感觉吧。
Like, that's what it probably feels like to be in puts.
我两种情况都经历过，但作为交易员，你得留意这种情况：有时候你会想，等等，我不该涨这么多，可我确实涨了。
I've been in both places, so but but it's just like a thing as a trader that to look out for where it's like some days you're like, Wait, I shouldn't be up this much, but I am.
这很有趣。
That's interesting.
或者相反的情况，你得对此保持敬畏。
Or the opposite, and you have to kind of respect that.
但说实话，外面的行情真是疯狂。
But yeah, man, it's been just wild out there.
在下单前，你应该知道究竟是谁在推动市场。
Before you place a trade, you should know who is actually moving the market.
这就是Arkham的用武之地。
That's where Arkham comes in.
Arkham是一个加密货币情报平台和交易所，让你看到真实的链上数据，了解哪些钱包在买入、卖出和转移资金，然后直接根据这些信息进行交易。
Arkham is a crypto intelligence platform and exchange that lets you see real on chain data, which wallets are buying, selling, and moving funds, and then trade directly on that information.
Arkham 的设计旨在让区块链变得易于理解，而不是呈现原始的交易数据。
Arkham was built to make blockchains human readable instead of raw transaction data.
你可以获得清晰的个人资料、可视化工具和自定义仪表板，展示表面之下的真实情况。
You get clear profiles, visualizers, and custom dashboards that show what's really happening beneath the surface.
追踪钱包和资金流动正变得与技术分析或基本面分析同等重要。
Tracking wallets and fund flows is becoming just as important as technical or fundamental analysis.
链上情报也是交易者防范黑客攻击、跑路和诈骗的工具之一。
On chain intelligence is also one of the tools traders have to protect themselves against hacks, rugs, and scams.
通过 Arkham 交易所，你可以在一个平台上从洞察直接执行交易，这是全球首个由加密情报驱动的交易所。
With Arkham Exchange, you can go from insight to execution in one place, the world's first exchange powered by crypto intelligence.
前往 Arkham 网站，使用真实的链上情报开始交易，网址是 arkham.com。
Check out Arkham and start trading with real on chain insight at arkham.com.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
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我喜欢这种做法。
I I I like that approach.
我的意思是，是的。
I mean yeah.
我想看一下几个图表，说明这一切如何融入宏观经济背景中。
I I wanna walk through a couple charts to just tying in how this all could move into the economy in the macro context.
所以，交易和应对石油供应冲击的难点在于，初期对央行来说非常鹰派。
So this is the whole difficult part of trading and navigating a supply oil shock is that the initial onset is super hawkish for central banks.
你可以看到SOFR曲线，我们已经完全撤销了任何有意义的降息，未来一年内几乎没有任何降息预期。
And you can see the SOFR curve is like we have we have completely unwound any sort of meaningful cuts and there's hardly anything baked into here for for the next year or so.
如果油价低于100美元，那就意味着2%到2.5%。
And if oil's below $100 that makes the 2 to 2¢.
正如你在这里看到的，油价初期上涨显然是通胀性的。
It's largely, you can see this here, is the initial on ramp of oil prices is of course, inflationary.
你在整体CPI中也能看到这一点。
And and you see that in in headline CPI.
油价上涨时，整体CPI也随之上升。
It it as oil goes up, headline CPI goes up.
当油价下跌时，整体CPI也会下降。
As it comes down, it comes down.
你知道，核心CPI在一定程度上与之脱钩。
You know, core CPI stays somewhat independent from that.
但一旦油价突破100美元，我相信，肯定有十位不同的经济学家会拿出十种不同的经济模型来告诉你，什么时候会转向需求萎缩。
But then once you get past a $100, you know, I'm sure, I'm sure 10 different economists can have 10 different economic models to tell you when that turns to demand destruction.
但再回头看上一次，你看，这显然是个经典案例：当时油价大幅飙升，突破了120美元，而应对高价格的最佳方案，就是高价格本身。
But just again, looking back at this previous one, see, oh, wait is a classic example where we had the huge oil spike, it went above 120 and then what's the best solution for high prices, high prices.
你直接看到了彻底的破坏和经济衰退。
You just got this absolute destruction and recession.
然后突然间，你把这和他们的SOFR曲线结合起来，就会想：你在开玩笑吧？
And then suddenly, you know, you pair that with what their SOFR curve is and you're like, are you kidding me?
现在我们几乎没定价任何降息，而这种情况却有可能发生，因为你知道，布伦特原油今天刚刚收盘突破了100美元。
We're barely pricing one cut right now when this is the possibility because, you know, Brent oil just closed above a $100 today.
我们正站在转向需求破坏的边缘。
Like we are right on the precipice of that turning into demand destruction.
我认为欧洲和亚洲市场已经非常接近需求破坏了，就像我之前说的，但我们确实正站在边缘。
I think it's already pretty close to demand destruction in European and Asian markets, like I was saying, but like we're, we're right on the precipice.
因此，你必须想办法弄清楚，那个转折点在哪里——是美联储可能应该加息，还是美联储必须降息，而且我们需要迅速降息，因为全球正在陷入衰退。
And so you have to try to figure out how does, where is that pivot point between, oh, the Fed might, should maybe hike here to, the Fed needs to cut and like, we need to cut fast because there's a global recession.
这我不知道，你怎么看这个问题呢？
And it's, I don't know, like how do, yeah, how do you think about that?
我觉得是这样。
I think that.
好吧，如果你推演一下，会发现只有两种选择：按兵不动。
Okay, so if you play this through and you're like, all right, the two options are stand pat.
我们知道他们不会加息。
We know they're not hiking.
我们知道他们不会加息。
We know they're not hiking.
他们并没有减少。
They're not reducing.
所以两个选择是维持现状，面对短期的通胀压力。
So the two options are stand pat into a near term inflationary thing.
这有点像关税，对吧？
It's sort of like tariffs, right?
关税在短期内推高了通胀，但因为对需求造成了巨大冲击，这种影响已经逐渐消化了。
Tariffs were near term inflationary and it's kind of worked through because it hit demand so hard.
所以也许可以借鉴这一点。
So maybe use that.
我想不确定性在于这种情况会持续多久。
I guess the uncertainty is how long this lasts.
所以如果你的基准是无所作为或在此情况下降息，我认为这是其中一面。
So if your baseline is do nothing or cut into this, I think that's one side of it.
但你还需要考虑财政政策，因为这里最奇怪的是，我们谈论着整个环境，说着衰退，说着就业增长为负，但政府却仍在创纪录地支出，赤字规模达到危机甚至大萧条级别的水平。
Then you also have to look at fiscal because the really weird thing here is we're talking about all of this environment and we're saying recession, we're saying we're in a negative job growth atmosphere, but the governments are still spending record emergency recession, depression level deficits.
我们过去赤字占GDP的0%到3%，现在却达到了5%到6%。
We used to spend zero to 3% deficit to GDP, and we're now at five to six.
这是在衰退之前的情况。
That's pre.
然后在衰退期间，零到三的赤字会飙升到六，之后又收缩回三。
Then those zero to threes blow out to six in a recession and they contract back to three.
而我们现在正处于五到六的水平，并且还要继续下去。
Here we're at five to six and we're going into this.
这在利率方面也是如此。
That's kind of on the rate side too.
由于财政方面带来了如此大的名义增长缓冲，今天的利率可能有一个更高的底部，因为即使他们什么都不做，也可能具有刺激作用。
There's probably more of a floor in rates today when you have that big of a nominal growth buffer coming from the fiscal side, because it might be that if they even do nothing, it's stimulative.
我认为我们需要看看财政方面的应对措施，因为还有什么比说‘我们必须保护美国’更能赢得中期选举的选票呢？
I think that we need to see what the fiscal response is, because what's a better midterm vote buyer than saying, We had to protect The U.
美。
S.
从伊朗以及这些迫在眉睫的威胁来看，我们知道这给你带来了困难，因此给你2000美元补贴每天上下班的油费，或者每周50美元用于杂货等开销。
From Iran and all these immediate threats, and so we know it's caused you hardship and here's $2,000 for your gas bills to and from work every day, or here's $50 a week towards groceries, things like this.
所以，如果你把财政政策和这些措施结合起来，通胀问题就会变得真正严重。
So if you pair the fiscal with it, that's when things really the inflation really, really becomes problematic.
但到目前为止，如果财政和货币方面都没有任何应对措施，你可能应该押注需求萎缩会更快到来。
But so far, if no responses from fiscal and no responses from monetary, you probably should bet on the demand destruction coming sooner.
但即使像这样，市场上有很多关于石油期货市场可能发生的投机行为的猜测，比如他们一直在抛售近月合约之类的，这实际上几乎让情况更糟，因为通过压低价格延长了需求萎缩到来的时间，只是让整个过程拖得更久。
But even things like, I mean, there's a lot of speculation around potentially may be happening in oil futures market, like if they have been selling front month and things like that, that actually almost makes matters worse because it prolongs the time from the ultimate demand destruction by lowering prices, and it just sort of drags this whole thing out in a way.
所以我认为，存在一种情况，即利率和债券在一段时间内只能归入‘太难处理’的类别。
So I think there's a world where you put rates and bonds for a moment in just the too hard category.
我认为唯一可能说得通的策略是收益率曲线陡峭化，因为无论你做不做，长期通胀都会让你陷入困境。
The one thing that I think could make sense is a steepener because you're kind of screwed in long term inflation if you don't and screwed if you do.
所以，我不知道。
So like, I don't know.
我认为我更倾向于支持收益率曲线陡峭化，但在这里采取明确立场确实更困难，我觉得。
I think that's I would lean towards a steepening effect, but taking outright views here is it's tougher, I think.
是的，我觉得债券就是死钱。
Yeah, I think I think bonds bonds are dead money.
这很有趣。
It's interesting.
我总觉得，从消费者角度来看，我们正进入一个更加脆弱的阶段。
I sort of feel like we're in a much more vulnerable spot from from the consumer perspective going into this.
我觉得目前的财政刺激力度并不强。
Like, I I don't view the fiscal impulse that strong right now.
再看看过去四年左右每一次重大的能源石油冲击，每次出现重大能源供应冲击后都会出现衰退，只有2022年例外。
And then, okay, you look at every major energy oil shock over the past four years or so, like anytime we see a major energy supply shock, you get a recession after, except for 2022.
甚至连那件事也可以说是文字游戏。
And even that is like semantics.
2022年没发生衰退的原因，我们在录音前就讨论过，就是你看就业市场，职位空缺数都创了历史新高。
Like the reason why that didn't happen in 2022, we were talking about this before we hit record, but is okay, you look at the jolts market, job openings, all time highs.
再看看劳动力市场有多火热。
You look at just the, yeah, how hot the labor market was.
你看看涌入的移民，人口增加意味着更高的GDP增长。
You look at all the immigration coming in, more population equals higher GDP growth.
就像疫情期间，有这么多人堆着刺激支票。
Like you had all these people stacked up with COVID stimi checks.
每个人的个人储蓄率都高得离谱。
Everybody's, you know, personal savings rate were ridiculous.
每个人都手头宽裕。
Everybody was flush with cash.
会从RRP中抽走资金。
Gonna drain money from the RRP.
是的。
Yeah.
当然了。
Oh yeah.
然后，RRP里有高达两万亿美元的资金可以被抽走。
And then, and then the RRP was, yeah, 2,000,000,000,000 in the RRP that they could drain out.
所以那才是流动性缓冲。
And so that was the liquidity buffer.
就像所有条件都恰到好处，我们才勉强避开了2022年的衰退。
Like you just had the stars aligned and we barely avoided a recession in 2022.
而我们现在的情况完全相反。
And we have the complete opposite situation.
就像我们之前讨论的，提款支持数据表明劳动力市场状况非常非常糟糕。
Like, like we talked about, the draw support shows us that the labor market is in a really, really bad spot.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
你再把现在的储蓄率和2022年相比，情况也更糟。
You pair that with where savings rates are now versus in 2022, also in a way worse spot.
我知道没有流动性工具。
I know no liquidity facilities.
没有。
No.
是的。
Yeah.
尽管你在2022年提到了那些因素，我们仍然遭遇了三月的银行业危机，没有任何流动性支持。
No liquidity we still got the March banking crisis despite all of that stuff you mentioned in 2022.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我们现在的情况正好相反。
So so we're in the opposite now.
更不用说，让我们干脆彻底悲观一点吧。
Not to mention I don't let's just let's just go full doomer here.
但你看，人工智能数据中心的建设，你可以说这是最近电子商务增长表现不错的部分原因。
But like, look, you look at the AI data center build out, which you could say is the reason why e comm growth has been doing pretty well recently.
其中很大一部分资金来自中东的大型主权财富基金。
A lot of that gets funded from these big sovereign wealth funds in The Middle East.
他们现在不会在这些项目上花钱了。
They're not going to be spending money on that right now.
他们没钱了。
They're broke.
其中一个，是的。
One of the yeah.
他们真的没钱了。
They're they're broke.
那些建设的一大驱动力是氦气的需求。
There's one of one of the big drivers of of that build out is the demand for helium.
直通形式公司是全球最大的氦气分销商之一。
And the straight to form use is one of the biggest distributors of helium in the world.
它目前停摆了。
That's offline right now.
是的，偶尔会有油轮通过，但卡塔尔的液化天然气没有，氦气根本就没有。
Like, yeah, the odd oil tanker is getting through, but LNG from Qatar isn't, helium isn't like at all.
建造这些东西需要燃料。
You need fuel to build all these things.
你需要电力和能源，以及天然气来为它们提供动力。
You need the power and energy, natural gas to power them.
你需要外国资本来为它们融资。
You need the foreign capital to finance them.
你需要信贷市场保持开放，以便这些公司能够发债。
You need the credit markets open so these companies can issue.
这里有很多潜在的崩盘风险。
There's a lot of potential unraveling here.
我同意。
And I agree.
所以我同意你的观点，财政刺激力度更弱，并不理想。
So I agree with you that the fiscal impulse is flatter, is not great.
这正是我的观点，我们仍在维持5.5%的赤字，但财政刺激却为零。
And that's kind of my point, is we're still running 5.5% deficits and the fiscal impulse is nil.
想象一下，如果我们把赤字降到正常可持续的3%，财政刺激就会像砍掉经济的脑袋一样。
Imagine if we went to normal sustainable deficits at three, the fiscal impulse would be like, cut the economy's head off.
所以这仍然倾向于黄金优于债券的观点，而且黄金可能会进一步大幅下跌。
So that's kind of towards the gold over bonds thesis still, and they're probably going to be an even bigger dip in gold.
但这只是把问题推迟了十年、十五年，一再拖延，直到最终你进行某种地缘政治操作，结果却不如预期。
But is just ten, fifteen years of kicking the can further and further down the road until finally you do some geopolitical maneuver and things don't turn out the way you want.
然后突然间，所有第二层、第三层的连锁效应都暴露出来了。
And all of a sudden it exposes all the second, third order effects.
天哪，真是吓人。
It's like, holy crap.
你知道，什么事都不会发生，直到
You know, nothing ever happens until like
所有事情一起爆发。
it all happens.
全都来了。
All does.
我认为还有一件事值得补充讨论，那就是战略石油储备的使用。
And I think another one to add on to that we should talk about is the SPR usage.
你确实发了一条有趣的推文，提到等等。
You actually put out a funny tweet talking about wait.
我想我确实保存着。
I think I actually have it.
等一下。
Hold on.
让我找一下。
Let me pull it up.
是的。
Yeah.
他们告诉我说，公司想知道这些图片之间的区别。
The tell me that corporate wants the difference between these pictures.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
拜登在中期选举期间从战略石油储备中释放了两亿桶石油。
Biden and draining 200,000,000 barrels of oil from the SPR out of midterms.
特朗普也在释放。
Trump draining.
公司让你找出这张图片和这张图片之间的不同。
Corporate wants you to find the differences between this picture and this picture.
这两张图片是一样的。
They're the same picture.
没什么不同。
There's no difference.
我的意思是，两者都是为了应对战争。
I mean, both to combat a war.
是的。
Yeah.
而且实际上，这场战争在某种程度上本是可以预防的，所以你本可以更有准备。
And and and and and and in effect, like, this war was almost more preventable in a way, so you could have been more prepared.
他们几个月前就知道要这么做。
They've known for months they were going to do this.
油价几个月来一直维持在60美元。
Oil was $60 for months.
那他们为什么没有释放战略石油储备呢？
Why weren't they aping oil?
这就是关键。
That's the thing.
特朗普为了攻击拜登而政治化了这件事，所以他不敢重建储备，因为他不想让油价上涨。
Trump politicized it so much by going after Biden for doing this, so he couldn't rebuild it because he didn't want oil price to go up.
而现在，他不得不释放储备，而且他确实应该这么做。
And now, like, he has to draw it down, and he should.
这是一件好事。
And it's a good thing.
他们正在这么做。
Like, they're doing this.
这正是它的用途。
This is what it's for.
但这让他们陷入了困境。
But that puts them in a bad spot.
我想我会开个玩笑，因为这回到了我们的主题：嘿，大家，不管你站在左、右、蓝、红哪一边，都清醒点吧，认清这是人民对抗政治精英统治阶级的问题。
I think I will say I'm making a joke about this because it goes back to our theme of like, Hey, everybody, you know, left, right, blue, red, whatever side you're on, you know, come to your senses and realize it's people versus the political elite ruling class.
所以他们本质上都是一样的，同出一辙。
So they're all the same, you know, of the same breed.
但我会说，对美国来说，这还没到那么紧急的地步。
But I will say it's it's it's a it's a bit it's not as emergency for The U.
美国。
S.
与其他地方相比，接下来可能发生的某种情况是出口限制。
As it is other places, because what probably happens next of some flavor is an export restriction.
而我们正身处其中。
And we're swimming in.
想想看，对吧？
Think about that, right?
我们是全球最大的生产国。
We're the largest producer globally.
我们的能源出口量大于进口量。
We export more than we import of energy.
想想这对依赖我们能源出口的盟友意味着什么。
Think of what that does to our allies who rely on our energy exports.
特朗普说，我必须赢得这次中期选举，所以得限制出口，以压低我们的石油和天然气价格。
Trump says, Well, I need to win this midterm so bad, I need to restrict exports to keep our oil and gas prices down.
这是一种实物商品。
It's a physical commodity.
在某些短期情况下，通过限制出口可以缓解价格压力，因为你不能把欧洲那边没运过去的汽油在这里烧掉。
You can, in some shorter term instances, remove price pressure by restricting exports because you can't burn a gallon of gas over in Europe that sits here.
但他已经向所有中东国家承诺提供保护，而这些国家正遭受伊朗的轰炸，现在他陷入了深深的困境。
But he's sitting in some deep, deep crap with his allies because he already promised protection for every Middle East country, they're getting bombed by Iran.
他正在将韩国和日本的防御资产撤出，转而部署到中东，而且可能还限制他们从美国进口能源。
He's removing defense assets from Korea and Japan to be put in the Middle East, and potentially he's restricting their energy imports from The U.
美。
S.
顺便说一句，就在他刚达成关税协议后，就试图让他们签署更大的能源进口协议。
Oh, by the way, right after he just, the tariff deals, tried to get them all to sign bigger energy import deals.
这简直是一团乱麻。
It's just an absolute cluster.
这些做法对他的支持率和人际关系都没有任何好处。
None of it bodes well for his approval, his relationships.
这就是为什么我如此强烈地提醒大家要谨慎，因为今天我发的那条推文，已经列出了当前所有的选择，他必须止住损失。
It's just that's why I'm kind of like really, really, really I'm just really expressing caution because that other tweet I had today, I laid out these these these options at hand and he's got to stop the bleeding.
几周前我就通过一条推文预见了这种情况。
Saw this coming with a tweet I wrote a few weeks ago.
我说过这种累积，就像打扑克时的沉没成本谬误。
I said this buildup, it's like when you're playing poker, the sunk cost fallacy.
一旦他开始在中东集结这些资产，你就知道事情会变成这样，不管那到底是什么。
Once he started this buildup of assets in The Middle East, you knew it was going to happen, whatever that was.
这是自我强化的，因为如果他把所有东西都撤回来，就会显得软弱，而他已经深陷一场无法取胜的战争，现在骑虎难下。
It was self reinforcing Because or if he just pulled it all back, he was going to look weak and he went pot committed into an unwinnable war and now backup is against the wall.
他的中期选举支持率每天都在急剧下滑。
His approval ratings in the midterm odds are plummeting every single day.
每一天都在下滑。
Every single day.
是的，
Yeah,
已经没救了。
it's cooked.
没救了。
Cooked.
而且汽油价格还在上涨。
And gas prices are rising.
所以现在他在某种程度上就像一只被逼到角落的动物，必须迅速采取行动。
So he's like a cornered animal right now in terms of And he needs to act swift.
他需要清除这些。
He needs to cull this.
他需要加速终结。
He needs to accelerate the end.
他需要了结这一切。
He needs to finish it.
这才是必须发生的事。
That's what needs to happen.
这就是为什么我总觉得，从《解放日》来看，他并不害怕直接撕掉创可贴。
That's why I'm kind of like, it's almost like and we know from Liberation Day, he's not afraid to rip the Band Aid off.
所以我不知道那意味着什么。
And so I don't know what that means.
我不知道会是什么样子。
I don't know what it's going to look like.
这可能只是在伊朗境内掀起滔天巨浪。
It could just be like raising absolute hell across Iran.
可能会有一些疯狂的举动，但这就是他必须做的。
Could be some crazy stuff, but that's what he needs to do.
因此，我认为在这个关键窗口期保持谨慎是明智的——他需要停止某些事，同时必须做一件大事。
And that's why I think it's prudent to exercise caution in this window where he needs it to stop and he needs to to do something big.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，没错，补充一点是，到目前为止，他几乎用尽了所有手段，但布伦特原油价格仍高于100。
I mean, yeah, just to add on to that is he's almost every tool in the toolbox has been used at this point, and Brent's still above a 100.
比如，你看到斯科特·贝松正在前月期货上出价。
Like, you have you have Scott Besson hitting the bid on the front month futures.
这只是一个展示战略石油储备（SPR）的图表。
You have like, this is just to show a chart of the SPR.
你正在以每天1.72亿桶的速度消耗储备。
Like, you you're drawing it down by a 172,000,000 barrels.
从实际角度来看，这就是战略石油储备的底部了。
For all intents and purposes, you this is the bottom of SPR.
它们不可能再降低了。
They can't go any lower.
换句话说，最低限度基本上不可能降到零。
Like, the the lower end, it's it's basically impossible to go to bring it to absolute zero.
所以你可以说，好吧。
So you can say, okay.
我们已经宣布，战略石油储备实际上已经完全耗尽。
We have announced that the SPR is basically fully emptied.
再结合国际能源署对其他国家的表态，他们表示：
And you and you pair that with what the IEA is saying for the rest of the countries here is that look.
考虑到全球其他所有国家计划释放的石油总量，目前短缺的石油大约只够支撑二十天。
With with the whole rest of the world and what they're planning to release, you get about twenty days of coverage in terms of what oil is missing.
如果你假设霍尔木兹海峡约两千万桶石油的缺口是真实存在的。
If you just assume the $20,000,000 or so the 20,000,000 barrels are missing from Hormuz.
显然，这并不完美，因为还有一些油轮正在通过。
Obviously, that's not perfect because there are some tankers coming through.
但无论如何，你看，情况就是这样。
But regardless, it's like, look.
这就是我们目前所处的状况。
This is this is where we're at.
我不太想展示这个。
Didn't wanna show that one.
但你确实看到了这种情况发生。
But you you have that happening.
还有《琼斯法案》，他们正试图在那里寻求一些豁免。
You have the Jones Act that they're trying to do some exemptions there.
像这样，剩下的手段已经不多了。
You like, there's not many more tools left here.
还有一个出口禁令，但就像你刚才说的，这会带来一连串意想不到的后果。
There's the export ban one, but like you just described, that leads to a whole other bunch of unintended consequences.
所以你有这一切，而油价仍然高于每桶100美元。
So you have all of that and we still have oral above a $100.
这并不理想。
It's not great.
唯一的办法是他们必须非常迅速地结束这种情况，因为你知道，再有十天的完全封锁，我们就陷入非常糟糕的境地了。
Like the only way, they have to end this really, really quickly because, you know, another ten days of the straight closed and we're in a really, really bad spot.
我的意思是，问题到底出在哪里？如果有人在看，请回复并给我们反馈。
Like, I mean, where is the question I'm trying to figure out, and if people are watching, please reply and give us your feedback.
特朗普的叔叔在哪？
Where is uncle for Trump?
我们该讨论的是叔叔，而不是塔可，因为他到底在哪？
We should be talking about uncle and not Taco, because Where does he?
不是说，哦，明白了，你们 guys。
It's not like, Oh, got you guys.
我只是在开玩笑。
I'm just kidding.
没有关税。
No tariffs.
哦，我只是在开玩笑。
Oh, I'm just kidding.
我们不是在打仗。
We're not fighting a war.
哦，我只是在开玩笑。
Oh, I'm just kidding.
我们没在搞铜带那一套。
We're not doing the copper bands.
所有这些花招，他就是说：不行。
All of these shenanigans, he's just like, No.
但每一个，他都在展示自己的止损点，以及他无法再承受痛苦的位置。
But every single one, he's showing his stop loss and where he can't take the pain anymore.
但这一次角色反转了。
But this one's a role reversal.
我的意思是，你得想象他们现在正在与伊朗进行秘密接触，恳求谈判之类的，因为这事儿不是塔可，是叔叔。
I mean, you got to imagine they're back channeling with Iran right now and begging for talks or something because because it's uncle, it's not Taco.
就像一切都在他眼前崩塌，他将会变得绝望。
It's like everything is imploding in front of his eyes and he's going to be desperate.
他可能在谈话，因为他是个元老级人物，对吧？
Might be talking because he's a legacy guy, right?
所以，如果这种情况再延续一周、两周，中期选举已经过去，剩下的只是挽回颜面。
So there's a point where this extends another, let's say, week, two weeks where midterms are gone and it's just salvaging face.
这并不好。
It's not great.
他手里没有好牌。
He doesn't have the cards in his hand.
在你杀死一个国家的前100位领导人，把他们打回中世纪，而这个国家有九千万人口之后，你还发推文。
Tweets after you kill the top 100 leaders of a country and ruin, you know, send them into the Middle Ages and there are 90,000,000 people in a country like.
这简直是一团糟，老兄。
It's a it's just it's a cluster, man.
这太残酷了。
It is so brutal.
实际上，我记得你回复过Thickey的推文，他是一位出色的加密交易员，他曾谈到，如果你是一个大鲸鱼，并且暴露了你的仓位规模、清算水平和止损点，市场就会来试探你。
There's actually there's a great I think you replied to the tweet from from Thickey, who's a great crypto trader, and he was talking a bit about how, look, markets, if you if you're a big whale and you show your your sizing, your your liquidation level, your stop loss, the market will test you.
加密交易员对此非常清楚。
And, like, crypto traders know this very well.
这些仓位水平总是会被试探。
Those position levels always get tested.
在过去几年里，通过解放日等事件的实证，市场和全世界，以及特朗普的对手们，现在都知道他的清算水平和止损点在哪里。
And through the past few years, through empirical evidence of Liberation Day and stuff, the market and the rest of the world and and Trump's enemies know where his liquidation levels and stop losses are at now.
所以他们知道该在哪里施压和试探，这一点你已经看到了。
And so they know where to press and prod, which is that you know, you've seen it.
比如，伊朗方面已经发布声明，说我们要把价格推到200美元，因为我们知道那是你的止损点，那是你的清算水平。
Like, they've they've the the Iran side has put out proclamations of like, look, we're going get all to 200 bid like, because we know that's your stop loss and that's your, that's your liquidation level.
一旦价格跌到那个水平，股市就会被彻底击垮。
And it's going to like, if you get all to that level, equities are going to just get absolutely decimated.
所以我们就要施压了。
So we're we're gonna press it.
我们会在市场上施压，看看能不能逼你止损出局。
We're gonna press you in the market and see if we can get you and run your stops.
这确实是个艰难的处境。
And that's a tough that's spot to be.
菲利克斯，想象一下，一周或两周后，市场下跌了25%，油价涨到了152,100美元。
Felix, put yourself in put yourself in your shoes a week, two weeks from now, and the market's down 25% and oil's at $152,100 bucks.
而特朗普在推特上疯狂发帖。
And Trump's tweeting everything possible.
美联储的杰罗姆降息了。
Fed, Jerome, cut rates.
你当时会怎么想？
What are you thinking?
他们今天已经这么做了。
They already did that today.
是的，直道是开放的。
Yeah, the straight is open.
所有人都愚蠢又盲目。
Everyone's stupid and blind.
他们根本看不见。
They can't actually see.
与此同时，什么都没发生。
Meanwhile, nothing's happening.
你处于这种境地，而伊朗方面会说：伙计，你试图谋杀我们所有人，占领我们的国家，杀害我们和我们的家人，强迫我们九千万人民屈从于你的意志。
You're in this situation and Iran's like, Dude, you tried to murder all of us and take over our country and kill us and our families and our sons enforce your will upon our nation of 90,000,000 people.
哦，对了，这还是一场宗教战争，诸如此类的事情。
Oh, by the way, it's a religious war and all these things.
伙计，他们根本不关心标普500指数。
Dude, they don't care about the S and P 500.
他们根本不在乎。
These could care less.
令人难以置信的是，人们竟如此麻木，以为一切全靠推文来决定。
It's mind boggling how complacent assuming that everything just kind of hinges on the tweets notice.
顺便说一下，如果我没想到某种真正的解决方案——这种情况是可能存在的——我接下来几周可能会错上百万次，你知道的，你可以改变说法，但前提是，当你把这一切推演下去时，你会想：如果我是他们，战争中一个极其重要的方面就是战斗意志，是生存的意志。
You know, disclaimer, like if there's a real resolution that I'm not thinking of and which there could be and I'm probably going to be wrong a million times in the next few weeks and you know, I you can change tune, but but the setup is when you play these things out and you're like, if I'm in their shoes, like this big, big, big aspect of wars is will to fight like will to survive.
而我们一点都没有。
Like we have none of it.
没人愿意待在那里。
Like, no one wants to be there.
但他们却拥有全部。
And they have all of it.
这是他们的土地。
This is their land.
这是他们的人民。
This is their people.
这是他们的家人。
This is their family.
他们会战斗到最后一刻，只为生存并
And they're going to fight till the bitter end and just survive and
是的。
Yeah.
制造破坏。
Wreak havoc.
他们不需要技术。
And they don't need technology.
他们不需要人数。
They don't need numbers.
他们只需要几个躲在海岸边的人，带着一些无人机，就能把那片区域牢牢封锁。
All they need is a couple of guys hiding on the beach coast with some drones, and they can can keep that straight closed.
谁在乎护航舰呢？
Like, who cares about escorts?
他们只需要扔出一架无人机就行了。
They they can just chuck a drone out.
他们根本不需要导弹。
They don't need missiles.
害，这事儿吧，对，就是这样。
Like, this just yeah.
这这这……我都说不出啥了。
It's it's it's it's it's I don't know.
我都哑口无言了。
I'm I'm speechless.
就比如说
Like
对
Yeah.
这这根本就是个圈套。
It it's it's it's a setup.
说实话，我都不敢相信这些事会凑到一起，这简直是天凑巧了的糟心事全撞一块儿了。
Like, honestly can't believe some of the things that and how perfect of a storm it is.
我正在写这方面的内容。
I'm writing about this.
我可能会明天发布，所以时间上应该正好赶上这件事。
I'll probably release it tomorrow, so it'll be probably good timing with this.
但还有农业方面的内容。
But the agricultural stuff.
这是一直以来我关注了好几个月的事情，像经典的宏观派人士，尤其是我，我总是太早介入，得学会克制一些。
And this is this is something I've been following for for many months and like classic macro people and especially me, I'm I'm like early and need to kind of restrict stuff.
所以我经常写下一些想法，拼凑出一篇文章，然后让它在书架上放上几个月，直到看到某些事情发生、新闻动态升温或出现势头，因为我太了解自己了。
So I often will write ideas and kind of put put a piece together and then like, let it just sit for months on the shelf until I see something or see news flow pick up or see traction because I just know myself.
我总是太早，然后又错了。
I'm early and then I'm wrong.
然后就会想，糟了，通常接下来
Then it's like, shit, and then usually
几个月后才真正上演。
plays it months later.
是的
Yeah.
所以我实际上有一篇关于农产品的文章搁置了两个月，因为
So I actually had a piece shelved for like two months on agricultural commodities because
一个
one
持续出现的新闻线索是经济衰退对农民造成了冲击，因为关税严重打击了小企业、美国中部地区等。
of the piece of news flow that has been consistent is the recession hitting farmers because tariffs really screwed, you know, small small businesses, Middle America, etcetera.
农民正经历着近年来最严重的衰退之一。
Farmers are in the worst recession, one of the worst recessions they've ever faced in recent history.
美国的农场破产数量
Bankruptcies across farms in The U.
正在
S.
同比上升超过40%。
Are up over 40% year over year.
我的意思是，这太惊人了。
I mean, that's astronomical.
而且任何住过或访问过美国的人都知道，我们这儿的食物质量很差。
And as anybody knows that ever has lived or visited The U.
我们吃的食物简直一塌糊涂。
S, you eat our food here and it's garbage.
所以我们本来就存在食物质量的问题。
And so we already have like a food quality issue.
但不管怎样，农民们正遭受重创。
But anyways, farmers are getting crushed.
其中一个主要原因在于，他们的生产成本与收入之间的差距从未如此之大。
And a big reason behind that is there's never been a bigger gap between their production costs.
比如种子、化肥、燃料这些生产玉米、大豆和小麦的主要成本，与他们实际收到的售价——小麦、玉米、大豆等的售价——之间的差距。
So seeds, fertilizer, fuel, those main things to produce corn and soybeans and wheat versus the prices they're receiving versus the selling price of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.
而这个差距巨大无比。
And that gap is massive.
所以他们正在大把大把地亏钱。
So they're losing money hand over fist.
因此，这些情况自我修正的方式就像高价格能治愈高价格一样。
And so how these things correct themselves, just like the cure for high prices is high prices.
低价格能治愈低价格，结果所有人都倒闭了。
The cure for low prices is low prices and everybody goes out of business.
没有了供给，然后就出现短缺，供给和需求也是有周期性的。
There's no supply and and then there's a shortage and supply moons and things work on cycles, too.
所以如果你做一些周期分析——这正是我的论文主题——就会发现，这种情况很快就要发生了。
So if you do like some like cycle analysis, was my thesis, like, Okay, it's happening soon.
这些经济衰退和破产正在打击农民。
These recessions, bankruptcies are hitting farmers.
农民们完蛋了。
Farmers are screwed.
唯一的解决办法就是提高价格。
The only cure is high prices.
而且除此之外，我还看到一些技术派、长期图表分析者谈论农产品如何跟随石油和能源等市场走势。
And then on top of that, I saw a number of these technical, long term chartist guys talking about how agricultural commodities follow oil and energy and all this stuff.
而就在这个时候，你却引发了可能对这个行业最具破坏性的供应冲击，而此时所有这些脆弱性都已经存在了。
And then here you go instigating one of the potentially most disruptive supply shocks for the industry at a time when all of this tender is already there.
我之所以指出农产品与其他商品不同的关键在于，有一个重要的春季播种季节——当问题解决后，石油可以重新开采，一切就恢复正常了。
And the thing that I just point to in why agricultural commodities are different is there's a key spring planting season where, you know, when this resolves, oil starts pumping again, it's all good.
我们补充库存，然后继续前进。
We refill and you go on.
但如果问题在七月或八月才解决，而你已经错过了春季播种期，农民们又没有化肥来种植这些作物，你就不能说：‘哦，我现在就种，一切都会好起来的。’
But if this resolves in August or July and you're past the spring planting season and no one has their fertilizer for these crops, you can't just say, Oh, I'm going to plant now and everything's be good.
实际情况是：天气不答应，那就只能等明年了。
It's like, Well, the weather says otherwise, so wait till next year.
所以，眼下正酝酿着一个非常棘手的局面。
So like, there's a really dicey situation setting up.
我之所以更喜欢这个观点，是因为你看到过多少条相关的推文呢？
The reason I love it even more is because how many tweets do you see?
关于小麦、大豆、玉米和糖，根本没人讨论。
Anywhere about wheat, soybean, corn and sugar, like no one's talking about it.
每个人都盯着石油，关注第一波影响，追逐那种每交易日30美元、120美元波动的价格变动。
Like, everybody's focused on oil, focused on the first order, like chasing these like 30, dollars 30, dollars 120 vol day like price moves.
然后你再看看这边，就会发现这个商品即将进入牛市。
And then you just look over here and you're like, This this commodity was about to enter a bull market.
它几乎没什么动静。
It's barely moved.
哇，这真是一个巨大的冲击。
Oh, wow, that's that's a pretty big disruption.
我在这整个商品板块上持有多头头寸。
I'm really long that whole complex.
你好好想想。
Like, just think.
如果你回顾一下乌克兰和俄罗斯历史上类似的地缘政治冲突，涉及这种供应链时，就能看到这些资产在几个月内上涨了50%到300%。
And if you go back to Ukraine, Russia in the historical geopolitical conflicts like this where this supply chain is involved, you can see 50% to 300% price increases in months in these assets.
而且它们现在简直困得要死。
And they're sleepy as hell.
它们通常一个月只波动百分之一左右。
They normally move like one percent a month.
但当你遇到这种情况时，顺便说一句，很多期货头寸仍然是空头，这些资产就麻烦了。
But when you get these situations, oh, by the way, a lot of futures positioning is still short, these assets, it's bad.
所以我觉得会有大量连锁反应，你根本无法预估，而且这些影响已经开始显现，但人们却毫无准备。
So I just think there's a lot of knock on effects that you can't even begin to solve for, and they're starting to show through the woodwork and people just aren't prepared.
我的意思是，除非你把所有情况都推演一遍，看看它们在哪里冒出来，否则根本不可能知道连锁反应会是什么。
I mean, it's impossible to know what the knock on is going to be until you start playing through everything and and seeing where they show up.
但确实如此。
But yeah.
哦，没错。
Oh, yeah.
这影响巨大。
It's huge.
把私人信贷加入我们刚才说的所有内容中，再加入私人信贷的崩盘。
Mix in the private credit to everything we were saying, mix in the private credit meltdown.
每个私人信贷基金都冻结了。
Every every private credit fund gated.
天哪。
Dude.
然后，没错，你再撒上一点私人信贷的 Tinder，随时准备点火。
And then, yeah, you sprinkle in the the Tinder of private credit ready to just light a match under.
全都冻结了。
It's all gated.
没人能取回他们的钱。
No one can get their money back.
是的。
Yeah.
天啊，到底发生什么事了？
It's like, dude, what's going on?
我是说，认真的，到底发生什么了？
Like, seriously, what's going on?
我的意思是，我们太疯狂了，我得发一条推文，内容是整个全球经济，然后有个人托着它，就只是
I mean, we taking crazy I got to put out this tweet where it's just the whole global economy and then somebody holding it up and it's just
这太蠢了，老兄。
It's an idiot, dude.
不，不，不，是抬高的看跌期权偏斜。
No, no, no, elevated put skew.
老兄，认真的，这太疯狂了。
Dude, seriously, it's crazy.
在过去三个月里，我们有十次机会在190美元时卖出英伟达。
We've had the chance to sell NVIDIA 10 times in the last three months at 190.
当人们连饭都吃不上、连车都开不起的时候，你觉得他们会关心下一个AI创新吗？
You think people are gonna care about the next AI innovation when they can't put food on the table or drive to work?
就像，是的。
Like, it's like Yeah.
事情变了。
Shit changes.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这是一个世界，
It's a world that the
世界正在人们买入看跌期权。
world is the world is on people buying puts.
对。
Yeah.
你上周谈到的那个设置和
And what you talked about last week with the setup and the
欧佩克，对。
OPEC, yeah.
但我们亏损得太严重了。
But we're bleeding so heavy.
我们每天在指数上损失一点五点，而且这还是在所有人都对冲的情况下。
We're losing a point and a half a day on the indices going into and that's with everybody hedge.
当对冲到期滚动时会发生什么？
What happens when the hedges roll?
情况太糟糕了。
It's so bad.
人们听到这个会想，嗯，过去几天我的推文已经说明了一切，没人会感到惊讶。
People are going to listen to this and like, I mean, no one's going be surprised because of my tweets the last few days.
我一直很直言不讳，但我真正想做的是揭示一些我深信不疑的事情。
I've been pretty vocal, but I'm really just trying to shine a light on something that I mean, yeah, I'm I believe in it heavily.
这个问题真的很糟糕，我觉得。
The work is I just think it's really, really bad.
我认为这会给很多人造成巨大伤害，而这些人本不该承受这样的损失。
I think it's it's going to cause a lot of damage to a lot of people who unfortunately, like, shouldn't, you know, be exposed to the damage.
是的
Yeah.
没错
Exactly.
好吧，老兄
Alright, man.
我们就说到这儿吧
We can leave it at that.
这可真是够悲观的了
That was that was some good dooming.
希望三月的时候，我明天醒来就能看到解决方案
Hopefully, March I would love to wake up tomorrow to a resolution.
我不知道
I don't know.
嗯
Well
是的。
Yeah.
我想是的。
I I think so.
我只是也不喜欢这种观念：赢得选举和投票的是这种暴力和战争。
I just also don't love the idea that what wins elections and votes is this violence in this war.
有一段时间，我觉得尽管婴儿潮一代和新保守派仍掌权，主导着舆论、趋势和决策，但我们正在背离这种趋势。
And it felt for a while there that we were While the boomers and neocons are still in power, sentiment and trends and decisions, right, we're kind of moving against that.
我们之前相当放手。
We were pretty hands off.
我们正在从中东撤出。
We were moving from The Middle East.
趋势更倾向于和平的事物。
The trends were more towards peaceful things.
只是感觉我们在这么短的时间内，在新保守主义和好战立场上倒退了这么多。
It just feels like we've taken such a step back in such a short period of time in terms of the neocon, war hawking.
我两年没看到林赛·格雷厄姆的名字了，现在他出现在每一场采访中。
I didn't see Lindsey Graham's name for two years, and now he's on every interview.
他无处不在。
He's all over your feet.
让这个家伙滚蛋。
Get this guy
他们正在引入康多莉扎·赖斯。
out They're of bringing in Condoleezza Rice.
他们正在请来鹰派的全明星人物。
They're bringing in the all stars of Warhawks.
但我搞不懂，因为选民群体正在变年轻。
I don't get it, though, because the electorate is moving younger.
我们正接近一个关键时期，婴儿潮一代在选民基础中的影响力正在衰退。
We're approaching the peak years where boomers are losing power of the voting base.
我不明白。
I don't understand.
我实在想不通，就像我上周说的，特朗普和这个政府去年使出了所有手段——欺诈、诈骗、投机，只为刺激市场，结果今年却爆发了彻底的危机？
For the life of me And like what I was saying last week, where Trump did and this administration did every single maneuver, fraud, grift, scam to pump markets last year only to have absolute crisis appear this year?
我真的不知道发生了什么。
I just don't know what's going on.
我实在想不通，完全不明白。
For the life of me, don't understand.
有什么东西变了。
Something changed.
我不知道是什么。
I don't know what.
我的意思是，是的。
I mean yeah.
让观众自己去解读吧。
Leave it up to the audience for interpretation there.
是的。
Yeah.
我们会在你意识到之前，及时停止这种阴谋论的兔子洞，幸运的是泰勒在这里。
We'll we'll stop the the conspiratorial rabbit hole before you know, luckily Tyler's here.
我们本来就已经在剪掉一些片段了。
We we would already been cutting segments out.
就留给观众去解读吧。
Leave it as an interpretation.
就是这样。
There you go.
好吧。
Alright then.
我们很快再见。
We'll see you soon.
再见。
See you.
把最好的想法留在评论区。
Put best ideas in the comments.
是的
Yeah.
没错
Exactly.
奇怪的事情
Weird stuff.
是的
Yeah.
周末愉快
Have a good weekend.
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