为何这个经济体系拒绝崩溃 | 大卫·塞瓦ntes

目前最大的宏观驱动因素就是人工智能基础设施建设，纯粹是因为涉及的资金规模太大了。

The biggest macro driver right now is the AI build out simply just because of the numbers involved.

我的意思是，资本支出差不多达到一万亿了，而且这个数字还在不断攀升，政府赤字和AI建设都在推高它。

I mean, we've got basically a trillion in CapEx and that number just seems to keep going up, between the government deficits and the AI build.

这简直就是一笔巨款在经济中疯狂涌动。

I mean, it's just a pile of money gushing through the economy.

有这么大的资金量，我实在想不通经济怎么会陷入衰退。

It fight it very hard to see how the economy goes into recession, those kinds of numbers.

政府赤字就是私营部门的盈余。

Public deficits are private sector surpluses.

所以，不管怎样，这笔钱也正在源源不断地流入经济体系，对吧？

So one way or another, that money is fighting its way through the economy as well, right?

在油价冲击之前，通胀压力就已经在广泛蔓延和加剧了。

The inflationary impulse was broadening and expanding even before the oil shock.

当市场已经充分定价了加息预期，我实在不明白为什么加息不会发生，或者至少不会有人讨论加息。

I don't see how hikes don't happen or at least talk of hikes when they get priced that don't happen.

关于前瞻性指引的任何发言，都不构成买卖任何投资或产品的建议。

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.

本播客仅供信息参考，节目中任何人的观点仅代表其个人意见，并非财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的立场。

This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.

我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队可能持有节目中讨论的公司基金或项目头寸。

Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.

一如既往，投资区块链技术存在风险，具体条款和条件适用。

As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply.

请自行做足研究。

Do your own research.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

欢迎回到《前瞻性指引》的又一期节目。

Welcome back to another episode of Forward Guidance.

本周我们邀请到的嘉宾是来自Pinebrook Capital的常客大卫·塞万提斯。

And joining me this week is a repeat guest, David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital.

David，每次你来参加节目都特别棒。

David, always great to have you on the show.

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

嗨，费利克斯。

Hey, Felix.

很高兴能再回来。

Glad to be back.

已经好几个月没见了，时间过得真快，能回来真好。

It's been it's been a few months or it's been a while, but, good to be back.

自从我们上次聊天，这个世界发生了太多变化。

A lot, a lot's changed in our world since we last chatted.

是的。

Yeah.

我们还在打仗，诸如此类的事情，总之现在事情太多了。

We we're at war among other things, but, yeah, A lot going on.

是的

Yeah.

对

Yeah.

经济和市场总是在‘已经结束了’和‘又回来了’之间反复摇摆，感觉特别明显。

It's a constant, oscillation between it's so over and we're so back, it feels like, both in the economy and markets.

但不管怎样，市场还在持续上涨，大家都急得抓狂，搞不懂到底发生了什么，是什么在推动这一切。

And, regardless, markets still keep going higher, and everybody's pulling their their hair out trying to figure out what the hell's going on and what's driving this thing.

希望接下来的一个小时左右，我们能开始解答这个问题。

So hopefully in the next hour or so, we can start to answer that question.

没错

Yeah.

咱们先从最核心的说起。

Let's just start from the top line.

你现在整体的宏观框架是什么？

Like, what's your what's your overall macro framework right now?

你觉得最重要的是什么？

What do you think is most important?

你最感兴趣、最期待的是什么？

What are you most excited about and interested at?

我觉得目前最大的宏观驱动因素是人工智能的基础设施建设，主要原因就是涉及的资金规模太大了。

I would say the the biggest macro driver right now is the AI, build out, and that's just because simply just because of the numbers involved.

我的意思是，现在资本支出已经接近一万亿美元了，而且这个数字还在不断攀升。

I mean, we've got basically a a trillion, you know, CapEx, and it that number just seems to keep going up and up.

现在连谷歌都开始进入资本市场，为自己的人工智能建设融资，这本身就是时代趋势的体现。

And, you know, now that now we're, you know, you know, Google Google tapping the capital markets, to fund its next chapter of its own, you know, AI build out is just kind of a sign of the times.

我不觉得这已经到顶了。

I wouldn't say it's anywhere.

这还处于高峰期，但只要趋势在继续，就不可能被忽视。

It's a peak, but, you know, if things are things are moving and that it can't be ignored.

这规模实在太大了。

It's just it is just so big.

再把这和我们依然庞大的政府赤字结合起来，政府赤字加上AI建设。

And then you kind of combine that with, our still large, government deficits, you know, between the government deficits and the AI build.

这简直就是一大笔钱源源不断地涌入经济，而且还在不断膨胀。

I mean, it's just a pile of money gushing through the economy, and it just it just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你回顾一下过去几年大型云服务商AI建设的发展轨迹，第一阶段主要靠他们自身的自由现金流，也就是不拿去回购股票，而是转投资本支出。

And it feels like the second you know, if you just think about the trajectory of that AI build out in the hyperscalers over the last couple of years, like, the first phase has been mostly just funded from their free cash flow that they had that, okay, instead of, like, throwing it into buybacks, we're gonna use that for for capital expenditure.

当时大家也都接受了。

And people are okay.

现在这一阶段快结束了，他们手头的自由现金流已经用得差不多了。

Now we're now we're at the end of that rope and okay, we've we've used up all that free cash flow.

所以接下来，就得转向债务市场融资了。

So, okay, now we're gonna start to tap the debt markets.

这种情况其实从去年年底到今年年初就已经开始了。

And that was happening back in, you know, December, January, February, and and that was going on.

然后，你知道的，当时有很多预测者觉得，好吧。

And then, you know, you had a lot of prognosticators thinking, okay.

嗯，你知道的，事情到这儿就该结束了。

Well, you know, that'll be it.

现在我们已经到了开始发债的阶段，这时候大家就会更敏感地关注这种融资方式的可持续性。

You know, we're we're we're getting to the point now we're issuing debt, and that becomes a lot more sensitive to how sustainable it is.

接着回到你刚才提到的点，昨天市场上有消息说，谷歌实际上要发行800亿美元的股票来融资。

And then to your point, yesterday, we get news on the tape that, Google is actually issuing this $80,000,000,000 equity raise.

所以现在我们要讨论的是股权稀释，以及通过发行新股来为这次大规模建设筹集资金。

So so now we're talking about equity dilution and and and issuing of shares to raise capital for this build out.

对。

Yeah.

我挺好奇的，你是怎么看待这件事的？

I'm curious, like, how do you how do you think about that?

这释放的信号有多大？

Like, how large of a signal is that?

尤其是在股票估值方面，如果谷歌在发新股、稀释股权，那说明他们的股权价值应该挺高的。

And especially in relation to equity valuation, I mean, if if Google's issuing shares and diluting their stock, I imagine that means that their their equity value is pretty rich.

你怎么看这个问题？

How do you think about that?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得更关键的是，不只是股权价值本身，而是推动这个价值背后的原因。

I I think what's, you know, backing out a little bit, it's not just the equity value, it's what's driving the equity value.

和其他几次狂热时期不同，我不太想用‘泡沫’这个词，但确实是一种狂热。

And, you know, unlike other, episodes of exuberance, I hate to use the word bubble, but, exuberance.

对。

Yeah.

以前主要是市盈率扩张，现在呢，是市场对盈利增长的预期在扩张。

You know, you know, there was a lot of, you know, PE expansion, and now we have, you know, earnings expansion expect earnings expectation expansion.

我的意思是，这些公司的盈利其实挺扎实的。

I mean, the earnings are solid.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

但现在大家都在讨论，说盈利预期可能存在泡沫，这些预期是否现实，最终能不能实现。

But, you know, there's talk about there's a bubble in in earnings expectations and and whether or not those expectations are realistic and, you know, whether or not they'll pan out.

不仅大家会问这些预期能不能实现，更关键的是，它们能不能赶在人工智能下一步建设之前兑现？

Not only will they question do they will they pan out, but will they pan out in time to fund the next step of the AI build out?

也就是说，这些计划里其实已经考虑到了技术过时的问题，对吧？

Meaning, yeah, there's obsolescence that's kind of factored factored into these plans, right?

我不是搞技术的，但我听到的说法是，五年左右就可能过时。

And, you know, look, I'm not a tech person, but I'm hearing I'm hearing numbers like five years thrown around.

所以，这些建设不仅在进行中，随着时间推移，设备还得不断更新换代。

So not only, you know, is this build out happening, but as time passes, things become obsolete, upgrades, need to happen.

那盈利增长的速度，能不能跟上设备替换的节奏？

And, you know, is is the earnings capture gonna be take place at a fast enough clip to, you know, to weather the replacement cycle?

我们什么时候才能不再为那些实际上已经过时的东西继续融资？

You know, where where are we still gonna be, you know, financing things that have are are functionally obsolete?

我认为这才是更关键的问题。

That's I think that's the bigger question.

还得再看看。

That's to be seen.

我觉得这事儿还得过个两三年才会明朗。

You know, that's that's that's a couple years out, I think.

我们现在还处在人工智能建设的早期阶段。

We're still there earlier innings of the AI build out.

这算是明天的问题，但我觉得最值得关注的是，这些收益到底能以多快的速度到账，能不能赶在设备更新周期前到位。

So that's kind of tomorrow's problem, but I would say that's kind of the big thing I would be looking at is, you know, at what rate do these, earnings come in, and do they come in in time to to, you know, stay in line with the replacement cycle.

对。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

我想深入聊聊人工智能建设带来的第二层影响，具体来说有两个方面。

I wanna double click on the second order effects there of this this AI build out, and specifically two things.

第一点，就是这些已经陆续公布的盈利数据。

One, which is these earnings that have been coming in.

上个季度，盈利增长明显加速了。

You know, this last quarter just saw a huge acceleration in earnings growth.

即使在这么高的预期下，我们还是频频超预期，这真是个非常出色的季度。

And even on those lofty expectations, we are still beating, you know, left, right, and center is is a pretty exceptional quarter.

企业利润率也在加快上升。

We're seeing corporate profit margins accelerate too.

所以我想知道，你是怎么看这个现象的？

So I'm curious how do you think about that?

第二点，是关于AI基础设施的建设。

And then the second one as well is this AI data build out.

你觉得这对制造业会有什么影响？

How do you think about that in terms of impacting, like, the the manufacturing sector?

因为就在昨天，我们刚公布了PMI数据，54。

Because, you know, just yesterday, we got the PMI numbers 54.

所以我们还在进一步加速。

And so we're we're accelerating further.

过去几个月的扩张势头非常显著。

The past few months have been really meaningful expansion.

我正在琢磨是什么在推动这一趋势。

And I'm trying to figure out what's driving that.

这仅仅是受益于人工智能数据中心的建设吗？

Is that just a direct beneficiary of this AI data center build out?

所以，我很好奇，你怎么看盈利增长的加速，以及它对美国制造业的影响？

So, yeah, just curious how do you think about the earnings acceleration and then what it's doing to the to the manufacturing sector in The US?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得比起盈利增长，我更关注利润率的提升。

So I I think the, you know, the bigger thing I'm focused on versus earnings is profit margin expansion.

我们一直在不断上调利润率的预期上限。

That is, you know, we're at, you know, we we keep raising the ceiling on profit, profit margins and profit margin expectations.

这件事我两年前就开始写了，当时我注意到生产力即将迎来一波大增长。

And that's something I kind of started writing about two years ago, when I was looking at the incoming productivity boom.

这是自九十年代以来，我们第一次看到这种与经济周期同步的生产力提升。

This is this is the first procyclical productivity boom that we've had since the nineties.

我俩前几期聊过这个观点，但现在看来，这个逻辑依然成立。

I think you and I covered it a couple of sessions back, but the thesis still holds.

说白了，现在各种有利因素凑在一起，形成了完美的风暴，推动了生产力的爆发，而这种趋势正体现在利润率的提升上。

And that thesis is, you know, we we have kind of the the the the perfect storm of things, positive things that are giving us this this, productivity boom, and we're seeing it manifested in profit margins.

只要利润率继续上升，哪怕只是保持稳定，这个投资逻辑就依然有效，因为最终，利润率反映的是企业的真实经济状况，以及它们在AI建设上的实际回报。

So I think as long as, you know, the profit margins keep expanding or at minimum, you know, hold hold their own, then, you know, then this this trade is still on because, ultimately, the the the profit margins re reflect the the economics, the underlying economics of of the enterprise and the of of what they're doing with with the AI build out.

与其盯着营收或净利润的增长，我觉得利润率才是预测未来更可靠的指标。

So, you know, instead of looking at the top line growth or bottom line growth, I think the profit margin has more signal versus other metrics for the forward look.

至于制造业的后续影响，很多人以为AI建设会直接推动美国的再工业化，或者带来制造业的复兴。

So, in terms of what's the second round effects on manufacturing, you know, I think a lot of people have been assuming that, you know, the AI build out is gonna, you know, kind of force this, you know, re industrialization or, you know, or manufacturing renaissance.

我们确实看到了一些迹象，但我认为真正的驱动力并不是AI建设本身。

And we've been seeing that, but I don't think the driver is the AI build out.

原因在于，我们用来支撑AI建设的那些关键资源，供应上有点跟不上。

And the reason is we're somewhat supply constrained on the things that it takes to to do the AI build out.

真正推动工业制造复苏或增长动力的，其实是库存补货周期。

What's been driving the the the industrial manufacturing renaissance or, you know, impulse growth impulse is really a restocking cycle.

这不过是新冠疫情引发的供应链冲击的余波。

That is an echo of the prior supply, change shock from COVID.

当时因为不确定性，企业疯狂补货，结果后来又不得不慢慢消耗库存，整个经济都经历了这种波动。

So, you know, we had a lot of inventory bullwhips where, because of uncertainty, you know, firms would restock, and then they'd have to, you know, wear down their inventories.

这种一波接一波的库存波动，影响了整个经济。

And it was this kind of bullwhip type effect, through the economy.

我觉得我们终于熬过了最后一波库存消化，现在这波是全面的制造业补货潮。

And I think we kind of got finally got through the last of the inventory drawdowns, and this is really more a manufacturing restocking across the board.

除了疫情，还有关税的影响，虽然很多政策已经调整了，但经济里还是留下了不少扭曲。

So I think part of that is also, you know, that on top of COVID, then we had the tariff, the theme of the tariffs, and I know a lot that's been walked back and, you know, there's still a lot of distortions that remain in the economy.

制造业现在正努力追赶，补足库存，想在经济中重新站稳脚跟。

And I think the manufacturing, impulse is trying to catch up, so to speak, and restock and try to, you know, get a level foot on on the economy.

这种补库存的动态，我想知道你有没有想过，在我们现在这种长期通胀的环境下，它会呈现出什么特点？

That, that restocking dynamic, I'm curious if you've thought about how it how it presents itself during a secular inflationary regime like we're in these days.

说实话，我们好多年都没达到2%的通胀目标了。

I mean, we haven't been at the 2% target in a lot of years now.

你总是不断遇到新的供应冲击，我猜那些做决策的经理们都会想：还是谨慎点好，干脆提前囤货，因为我不确定六个月后货还能不能拿到，更不知道那时候价格会涨到什么地步。

You keep having these supply shocks that keep happening that I I imagine these, these managers who are making these decisions are like, well, I'm gonna air on the side of caution and and pull forward my inventories because I one, I don't even know if the inventory is gonna be there in six months, I and don't know what the price of that inventory is gonna be like in six months.

谁知道又会冒出什么突发状况。

We know we could have this random new shock.

所以，好吧。

So okay.

我还是选择提前拉动需求，毕竟你看看，就连鲍威尔上一次会议，或者倒数第二次会议，他们一直在问他：你看，

I'm just gonna pull forward demand because I feel like with these rolling you know, even during the, I think Powell's last meeting or maybe the second last one, they kept asking him, like, look.

这些供应冲击一个接一个，根本停不下来。

Like, we keep having these rolling supply shocks that keep happening.

我们连一个正常的基准都找不到了，感觉就像这样。

It's like we don't even know we don't even have a normal baseline anymore, it sort of feels like.

所以我猜这对制造业影响挺大的，得不断提前拉动需求，这才让经济一直保持强劲，毕竟我们总在看到这种补库存和其他相关现象。

So I imagine that has, like, a pretty sensitive impact on the manufacturing sector where it's just like we need to keep pulling forward demand, and it keeps it keeps the economy strong because, you know, we keep seeing these restocking, these other dynamics.

你怎么看这个？

What do you think about that?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这现在不是问题，反而是常态了。

So I I think that's that's now a feature, not a bug.

我几个月前写过一篇相关文章，过去二十多年，我们的供应链一直以效率最大化为导向。

And, you know, it's something I wrote about a few months ago where, you know, for the past twenty plus years, our supply chains have been defined by optimization.

我们追求的是准时制库存，尽量减少库存积压。

We wanted to optimize everything just in time inventory.

谁也不想把资金压在库存上，囤太多货。

You you don't wanna be tying up working capital and holding large inventories.

但现在，这些冲击好像永远停不下来。

Now with, you know, these shocks that just seem to never stop.

现在是从优化转向韧性。

Now there's a shift from from optimization to resiliency.

所以如果你是运营经理，你要做的不仅仅是确保能拿到原材料，还得有缓冲库存，需要备货，这会占用更多营运资金，增加库存需求，等等。

So if you're if you're an operations manager, what you're looking to do is not just make sure that you have access to materials for your your inputs, you you have buffer stocks, you need to have extra, and that raises working capital, demands, that raises, you know, inventory requirements and on and on.

对，确实有提前采购的因素，但我认为这在现阶段是常态，因为从优化转向韧性不是一夜之间就能完成的，你也不能投了大笔钱进去又马上掉头。

So yeah, there's an element of pulling forward, but I think it's kind of a for now a permanent thing because this this shift into from optimization to resiliency, it doesn't you just it doesn't happen overnight, you know, and and you can't put a lot of money into the into doing this and then shift on a dime.

我觉得我们正处在一个过渡期，韧性会越来越成为企业供应链管理中的重要考量。

Think there is a transitional period that we're going through and resiliency isn't gonna factor in more into how firms manage their their supply chain.

对。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

我完全同意。

I I totally agree.

请继续。

Go ahead.

我只是想补充一点，这确实会对生产率和利润率产生长期影响。

I was just gonna I was just gonna add that that that does, you know, that does have long term impacts on on productivity, profit margins.

对吧？

Right?

如果你的营运资金被占用，又因为这些持续的冲击无法优化资本结构，那肯定会影响盈利能力。

If you're if you have, working capital tied up and, you know, you're you're not you're not optimizing your capital structure because of of these, of of these persistent shocks, then that will lead to into profitability.

但我认为还不至于到要大规模搞过度冗余运营的地步。

But I don't think it's it's we're at the scale where, you know, we're gonna be running, know, super redundant, operational, you know, efforts.

这只是一个需要关注的趋势，我觉得这是个新特点，而不是问题。

So it's just something to watch, but that I think that that's a new that's a new feature, not a bug.

没错。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

完全同意。

100%.

所以，很明显，企业在这类供应冲击中表现得非常坚韧。

So, yeah, obviously, we've characterized that the corporations are extremely resilient in in navigating these supply shocks.

我们来聊聊消费者是怎么应对的。

Let's talk about how the consumer is navigating it.

当我看到汽油价格在过去几个月里飙升时，我自然会想，这对普通消费者的支出肯定产生了不小的影响。

Because when I see something like gasoline skyrocketing over the last couple months, like it has been, I I imagine there's some pretty meaningful second order impacts on on the average consumer.

但美国人的韧性依然很强。

But, you know, American exceptionalism is still long and strong.

你经常写这方面的内容，我很好奇，你是怎么看消费者能持续应对这种压力，还照样每周正常消费的？

I mean, you write about this a lot, I'm just curious to hear about how you're thinking about just that consumer resilience to navigate something like this and still be out there spending every week.

这到底是怎么做到的？

Like, how is that working?

是的。

Yeah.

有几点值得考虑。

So so there's there's there's a couple of things, to consider.

一方面，我上周刚写过这个现象：千禧一代的父母正在为成年子女的生活开销提供支持。

One is, and I wrote about this, like, just last week, is the idea that, you know, the boomer cohort, of consumers are funding a lot of their adult children's, lifestyles and expenses.

比如家庭度假，去坐邮轮，或者去意大利、法国旅行——在经济条件较好的家庭里，很多时候这些大额开销其实是父母在买单。

So whether it's things like, you know, the family vacation, you go on a cruise, on a cruise liner, or you take that trip to Italy and France or whatever, lot of, you know, a lot of cases, especially at the upper K part of the economy, as they call it, You know, you have that phenomenon of, you know, someone else is paying for the the big ticket vacation.

更实际一点的是，很多老年人还在帮子女带孩子。

And then more prosaically, you have you have things like, you know, boomers helping out with childcare.

当你三十出头、刚组建家庭的时候，最大的开支肯定是房贷和住房，但另一个大头，我自己也经历过，就是育儿费用。

What are a lot of lot you know, your big expense buckets when you're, let's say, you know, you're early to mid thirties starting family, you know, it's your your obviously, your your your mortgage, your housing, but another big expense, and I can say this, I went through it myself, is childcare.

托育费用实在太贵了。

Childcare is crazy expensive.

如果孩子上的是蒙特梭利这类高端幼儿园，那更是天价。

And if you got them, like, in a Montessori school or whatever, forget about it.

真的非常昂贵。

It's it's it's really, expensive.

我觉得很多老年父母都在帮子女承担这类开销。

And I think a lot of, a lot of boomer parents are helping their kids out with things like that.

这样一来，他们的收入就能腾出来应对其他开销，比如油价上涨之类的。

And that kind of frees up, frees up the the income statement for other things like, you know, you know, the increase in gas or or or whatever.

所以我觉得，大家总在讨论高收入群体的消费信心依然坚挺，这没错。

So I I think that's that's, you know, we all focus on or there's a lot of talk about how the upper k the upper k part of the, consumer sentiment is fine.

但被忽视的是，这种隐蔽的、很难追踪的财富转移。

Everybody else is struggling, but I think what's neglected in that discourse is this kind of stealth, and very hard to document, wealth transfer.

而且这种转移很难统计，因为根本没什么税务记录。

And and, you know, it it's it's it's hard to document because, you know, no no one's there's tax implications.

对吧？

Right?

如果你直接给成年子女送钱，那确实有税务问题。

If you if you're gifting money to your to your adult kids, then there's tax implications.

我记得上限是一万三千美元。

I think it's 13,000 is the max.

所以如果你在这些方面花了不少钱，那税务问题就躲不掉了。

So if you're if you're spending, you know, decent money on all these other things, then you got tax implications.

没人会报告这些事，但你总会听说，也看得见。

No one's gonna report this stuff, but you hear about it, and you and you see it.

然后我想，这又回到一个问题：支撑美国消费者的关键是什么？我记得有个数据，但忘了具体数字，不过应该有很大比例的人已经没有房贷了。

And then I think that's also going back to, you know, what's keeping the American consumer afloat is, know, you I forgot what the what the percentage is, but I think it's a pretty high percentage of people that don't even have a mortgage anymore.

当你想到这一点，你会发现，过去房贷曾是你生活中最核心的开销。

Then when you think about that, you know, more of your you held your more you know, your mortgage was kind of your defining, you know, life expense.

现在有百分之四五十的人——我也不确定具体数字。

And when you've got, 40 or 60%, I don't know what the number is.

这个比例肯定在百分之四十到六十之间。

It's somewhere, I know it's somewhere between 4060%.

当相当一部分人连房贷都没有了，手头就宽裕了，不仅能花在别的地方，还能帮衬成年子女，或者做其他安排。

When you've got, you know, a large part of the population that doesn't even have a mortgage that frees up spending for other things, and not just other things, but also for the adult for the adult children or for the, you know, for for whatever.

这一点值得考虑。

So there is that element to consider.

最后，储蓄率和财富效应之间，其实是有联系的。

And finally, you know, there's a court there's a relationship between, you know, saving savings rate and and wealth effects.

所以，说实话，我们一直处在这种状态。

So, you know, we've had this effectively.

除了新冠疫情那段时期，美国经济自2009年以来就一直在增长。

I outside of COVID, The US has been in an economic expansion since 2009.

对吧？

Right?

那股市呢？这期间涨了多少？

And the stock market has done a what?

标普500从2009年到现在涨了三倍，纳斯达克和QQQ可能涨得更多。

300% since 2009 on the S and P, probably higher for, the Nasdaq, the QQQs.

如果人们通过股市和401(k)退休账户变得越来越富有，那很多关于消费下降的评论其实不太对劲，因为它们完全没考虑到财富在这段时间里大幅增长和广泛扩散的事实。

So if if if, you know, as people have gotten wealthier, through the stock market and their four zero one k's and etcetera, etcetera, You know, I I think the a lot of the commentary about, the the the fall in spending rate is I think it's misplaced because it it it doesn't consider this this huge rise in in the wealth that's being created and distributed.

不过话说回来，财富分配呢？底层50%的人有炒股吗？

Now the distributional, you know, does the does the bottom 50% own stock?

几乎没有，就算有，也少得可怜。

Not not a lot, if if any at all.

但对于前50%的人来说，情况就完全不同了。

But, you know, for the upper 50%, that's a different that's a different story.

不管他们是直接持有股票，还是通过退休账户持有，其实都没什么区别。

And whether or not it's in, you know, direct equity holdings or retirement accounts, it really doesn't matter.

说到底，还是同一块蛋糕。

It's still the same pie.

这仍然是你的净资产，你的财富。

It's still your your net worth, your wealth.

当人们感觉更富裕时，就会少存钱、多花钱。

And when people are well feel wealthier, they're gonna save less and spend more.

我觉得现在支撑消费的有三根支柱：一是婴儿潮一代的父母在帮衬，二是财富效应，三是很多人已经还清了房贷。

So I think we've got these kind of this three legged barstool of of of that's that's pro consumption with whether it's the boomer parents helping out, it's the the wealth effect, and a lot of people just don't have a mortgage anymore.

他们早就把房子贷款还清了。

They paid off their houses.

这些虽然是不同的议题，但都关系到消费支出的资金来源，不管怎么说，尽管通胀导致实际工资下降，这些因素依然在起作用。

And those are separate, you know, conversations, but at the same time, they are all relevant to how how the consumption expenditure is being funded regardless of, you know, you know, because of inflation, there's been a decline in real wages.

你知道，还有很多其他因素需要考虑。

You know, there's all these offsets to consider.

我觉得我刚才说的那三个主要因素，才是真正推动这一切的原因。

And I think those three big ones I just mentioned are are are really, you know, driving it.

你看，像高端消费、体验型服务这类现象就很明显。

I mean, you see you see things like, you know, higher end consumption, you know, ex experiential experiential, providers.

比如拉斯维加斯的Sphere场馆，那个大型演唱会场地。

For example, Sphere, you know, the the the Sphere in Las Vegas, the concert venue.

对吧？

Right?

这可是高端产品。

You know, this this is a premium product.

他们独家运营，别无分号。

There's only they have they have a monopoly.

全世界就这一个Sphere。

There's only one Sphere in the world.

你要是想去那里看场演出，票价少说三四百美元，要是大牌演出，可能还要贵得多。

And, you know, you you try to go to a show there, it's 3 or $400 a pop, if that maybe be much higher, depending on the act.

但说实话，普通人不会为这种东西花钱。

But, you know, people aren't paying for things like that.

总有一部分人，有能力承担这样的开销。

It's some there's a group of people that, you know, can afford to do that.

他们去拉斯维加斯，花大价钱在像Sphere这样的地方消费，这种现象在整个经济中都存在。

They go to Las Vegas, and they spend a lot of money on things like the spear, and that's across the economy.

这可不是拉斯维加斯独有的情况。

That's not just unique to Las Vegas.

总有人在花这笔钱，而钱总得有来源。

But so someone's spending it, and it's got it from somewhere.

我觉得，这笔钱的来源就是我刚才说的那三个方面。

And I think that somewhere is those three things I mentioned.

对。

Yeah.

这真的很有趣，因为上周我们发布了PCE数据，一下子在金融圈引发了热议。

That's that's really interesting because, yeah, like, last week, we got this PCA PCE data that seemed to have set ablaze FinTwit in terms of discourse.

我想再深入说说这个数据，当时储蓄率跌到了极低水平，可能创了几十年新低，低于3%。

And, yeah, it's I wanna, I wanna characterize it a bit better and further too, because during that data, okay, we saw the savings rate hit like a, I don't know if it was a multi decade low, but very, very low, like below 3%.

收入增长却非常疲软。

Income growth was very lackluster.

但消费却超过了收入。

Consumption was above incomes.

这里面显然有个没被完全说清楚的动态，就是高消费的资金到底从哪儿来的。

So, you know, there's some sort of dynamic there that's going on that isn't being entirely captured in terms of what's funding the higher consumption.

听起来你觉得，刚才提到的那几个来源，其实没在数据里充分体现出来。

It sounds like you think it's those buckets that you just mentioned that don't get characterized as well in that data.

但与此同时，我也看到一些数据，信用卡违约率正在明显上升。

But at the same time, you know, you have I saw some data points about just like credit card delinquency rates are accelerating pretty meaningfully.

所以我有个问题想请你再展开说说：既然收入增长这么弱，是不是你前面说的那些资金来源太强了？比如财富效应——不是靠收入流，而是千禧一代继承的财富，还有老一辈资产升值带来的富裕感，让他们觉得自己很富足。

And so I just have this question I'd love for you to unpack further, which is that, okay, are you saying that in light of the fact that income growth is pretty lackluster, these other buckets are just so strong, like to your point about wealth and, and, you know, it's it's not it's not so much the the flow of income, but rather just this wealth that has been built up by boomers that has been passed over and, you know, just how rich they feel because their their equity asset portfolio is going up higher.

也许他们能拿这个去贷款，之类的做法。

Maybe they can take loans off of it and then that sort of thing.

但你的意思是，这些因素比收入增长乏力要强得多，所以消费者依然信心十足，尽管表面上看这种状态似乎难以为继。

But you're saying those dynamics are just so much more overpowering than something like lackluster income that it still leads to a confident consumer, even though it looks on the surface like it may not be sustainable.

你是这个意思吗？

Is that what you're saying?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你想想看。

I mean, I mean, think about it.

有人确实在花钱。

I mean I mean, someone is spending the money.

对吧？

Right?

而且这些钱总得有个来源。

And and, you know, it it's coming from somewhere.

我觉得吧，主要是因为之前提到的那个‘隐形婴儿潮财富转移’，这其实很难通过具体的流动性或事件来衡量，比如老年父母去世后的遗产继承。除此之外，这类数据真的很难获取。

I I think be because, you know, the the main one that I mentioned about the, you know, the the the stealth boomer wealth transfer, that that's really outside of an actual, you know, liquidity or event where, you know, elderly parent dies and there's an estate transfer outside of that, it's it's really hard to get data on that.

就像我刚才说的，没人会详细报告他们给成年子女花了多少钱。

Like I said, those are no one's a report much money they're spending on their kid on their adult kids.

所以，这里面确实存在不少推测的成分。

So, that it's it's so there's an element of conjecture.

我没有太多数据来支撑这个观点，但根据我身边的例子来看，我觉得这种现象是真实存在的。

I don't have a lot of data to back it up, but, you know, anecdotally, I think it's there.

我们在社交媒体上能看到，现在四十多岁还跟父母或者公婆、岳父母一起去度假，好像成了一种潮流，对吧？

We see it, you know, we, you know, on social media, you see a lot of there's a there's it's kind of a thing now, right, to to, you know, be in your forties and still be going on vacation with your parents, or your in laws or or whatever.

我小时候可不是这么想的，我觉得完全不想这样。

You know, when I was growing up, I was kinda like, no.

我不想长大以后还跟爸妈一起出去玩。

I don't wanna go to I don't wanna be an adult and go go on vacation with my parents.

但现在看来，大家的心态确实发生了一些转变。

And now it's kind of there's a a shift in cultural attitudes.

我敢说，这部分原因确实跟资金支持有关。

And I'm sure part of that's driven by the the funding aspect.

免费度假，为什么不呢？

Hey, free vacation.

干嘛不呢？

Why not?

你懂的。

You know?

不过，确实如此。

So but yeah.

你明白的。

You know?

但不仅如此，如果你回头想想我之前说的AI支出和联邦赤字的问题。

But but and and not only that, though, but if you think about the going back to what I mentioned about the the the AI spend as well as the federal deficits.

政府赤字其实就是私人部门的盈余。

You know, public deficits are private sector, surpluses.

所以不管怎样，这笔钱最终都会流入经济体系中。

So one way or another, that money is finding its way through the economy as well.

对吧？

Right?

政府在花这笔钱。

The government's spending it.

它会慢慢流入私营经济领域。

There's you know, it's it's making its way to the private economy.

当然，分配问题确实存在，谁拿得多、谁拿得少，但从宏观总量来看，这其实不重要。

You know, the the of course, there's distributional issues and who gets what, but that that's a that's from a macro macro aggregate standpoint, it's really irrelevant.

分配问题更多属于政治经济范畴，但从纯粹经济角度看，根本无关紧要。

The the distributional issues are more political economy and, but in terms of pure economy, it doesn't really matter.

这些数字是真实存在的。

Those numbers are there.

数额非常庞大。

They're massive.

规模巨大。

They're huge.

明白了。

Alright.

所以综合来看，很明显，如果我们继续维持当前的财政赤字，再加上AI建设的持续推进，以及消费者依然强劲的支出，‘衰退’这个词现在根本毫无现实依据，根本不该出现在我们的语汇里。

So with all that said, pretty clear that, you know, if you just if you continue with the fiscal deficits that we have with the the AI build out that's going on, this this resilient consumer, recessions are still just a word that, has no warrant to be in the vocabulary right now.

这还是你的看法吗？

Is is that still your view?

因为你长期以来一直这么看，而且在大家都高喊衰退的时候，你却准确预测了局势。

Because that's been your view for a long time, and you've nailed it during moments where everybody was screaming about recession.

我想把这一点说清楚。

I I wanna make that clear.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

这确实是关键因素之一。

That's really a a big part of it.

我的意思是，这些赤字规模堪比二战时期。

I mean, these are World War two stop deficits.

上一次我们有这么大的赤字，还是里根时期军备扩张的时候，那时候赤字大概也就百分之三四。

I mean, the last time we had deficits this size, I mean, you know, during the Reagan the Reagan, military build out, I think our our deficits were, like, maybe three or 4%.

那时候人们还觉得这已经够夸张了。

That was kind of like, know, people were just, you know, a gas at that.

现在我们看到的是百分之七，自二战以来就没见过这么高的数字。

Now we're looking at 7%, and we haven't had that since World War II.

在这么庞大的资金持续注入经济的情况下，想让经济陷入衰退实在太难了。

It's just really hard to put an economy into recession while those kinds of, you know, numbers are being pumped with the economy.

这简直像是硬生生给经济打强心针，说白了就是人为刺激。

It's like it's like, you know, it's it's it's forced, it's it's forced forced, forced meth methods to the economy, so to speak.

这真的太难了。

It's just it's hard.

我真的很难理解，这么大的数字下，经济怎么还会陷入衰退。

I just don't I I I find it very hard to to see how an economy going to recession, those kinds of numbers.

现在确实会有突发冲击。

Now shocks shots are a thing.

但我们对这些冲击的承受能力还算不错。

But we've weathered the shocks, you know, relatively well.

我们挺过了2022年的利率冲击。

We weathered the, you know, the, rate shock of '22.

我们也扛住了贸易战。

We weathered the, the the the tariff war.

现在我们正在应对这场局部战争和油价冲击，但其实影响没那么大了，甚至可以说冲击越来越小。

Now we're weathering the, kinetic war and the, you know, you know, the the oil the oil price shock, which isn't even that much there's gonna be even that much of a shock anymore.

所以，经济确实很有韧性。

So, yeah, the the economy is is resilient.

消费者也很有韧性。

The consumer is resilient.

而且，说实话，任何经济终究都会有个临界点，但到目前为止，劳动力市场一直挺得住。

And, yeah, I mean, look, there's always a tipping point at some point, but the labor market, you know, so far has held up.

还有另一点，劳动力市场之所以收缩，是因为总统的移民政策。

And that's another thing too is is, you know, the the labor market has been has has been shrunk because of the president's immigration policies.

通过减少劳动力供给，失业率自然就被压低了。

So, know, with by shrinking the labor market, you kind of mechanically put downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

国家经济研究局，就是那个负责判定经济周期时间点的机构。

And one of the, the NBERs, National Bureau of Economic Research, they're the business cycle dating people.

他们判断经济衰退时，非常看重劳动力市场的下滑情况。

One of the things that they weigh very heavily is, you know, a decline in the labor market.

但我们现在根本不可能出现符合衰退标准的劳动力市场大幅下滑。

And we just are not gonna get a decline in the labor market at a magnitude that would be consistent with recessionary conditions.

这种现象根本不存在。

It's just not there.

实际上，我们现在几乎已经达到了充分就业的状态。

I mean, we we're at we're we're effectively at full employment.

尽管经济上发生了这么多事，今年年底失业率降到4%的可能性还是很大的。

There's a there's a good there's a good chance that employment could, you know, get down to 4% by the end of the year, despite what's everything that's been happening in the economy.

把这些因素综合起来看，真很难说我们会陷入衰退，毕竟失业率还在下降。

So when you put all that together, you know, and, and it's really hard to say, wow, we're going into recession, but employment unemployment's falling.

这完全说不通。

It's just it's it's it's incongruent.

你不可能一边说要衰退，一边又看到失业率在下降。

You you can't have a know, we're going to recession, but unemployment's falling.

完全正确。

100%.

就是这么个情况。

It's just it's it's just like yeah.

不好意思。

Sorry.

对。

Yeah.

你请说。

Go ahead.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

我只是想深入了解一下，美联储的双重目标是如何影响这一情况的。

I I just wanted to dig into how the the Fed and the Fed's dual mandate starts to impact that.

因为如果回溯到一月份，市场当时已经定价了相当明显的降息预期，而这些预期很大程度上依赖于劳动力市场的不确定性——也就是你刚才提到的移民等因素。

Because if we rewind back to January, there was a pretty meaningful amount of rate cuts priced into the curve, and a lot of that depended on this potential mystery the labor market because of the dynamics that you just mentioned around immigration and everything.

那时候就业数据确实不太理想，还有些负面修正，诸如此类的情况。

Know, we were getting some pretty lackluster jobs prints, you know, some negative revisions, all that stuff.

你必须非常敏锐地关注移民政策的变化及其对劳动力市场盈亏平衡点的影响。

And you really had to have a really keen eye to this dynamic of of the evolution and the impact of this change in immigration and how that's impacting, like, the breakeven rate for the labor market.

那时候，市场预期会有多次降息。

So at that time, there's quite a few rate cuts priced in.

后来爆发了伊朗战争。

Now and then you have the Iran war.

来了这么一记重击。

You have that shock.

再看今天，劳动力市场明显强劲多了。

And fast forward to today, we have a meaningfully stronger labor market.

我们更清楚了，就像你刚才说的，当时经济可能已经处于或接近充分就业，现在又遇上油价冲击，通胀加速。

We had better clarity on the fact that, okay, we were actually, like you just said, probably at maximum or full employment, and now you have an oil shock and accelerating inflation.

转眼到了六月初，市场预期反而变成了加息。

Suddenly, here we are in June early June, and we have rate hikes priced to the curve.

你怎么看这个转变？

How are you thinking about that?

对。

Yeah.

我是说，我其实已经思考这个问题有一段时间了。

I mean, I mean, I've been thinking about that for a while.

你知道的，3月1号的时候我就说过，年底前不会有降息，而且这事儿就到此为止。因为通胀压力在油价冲击之前就已经在扩散和扩大了。

You know, back March 1, called none, you know, none and done, that, you know, that we were not gonna have any, rate cuts, you know, by year end, because the inflationary impulse, was broadening and expanding even before the oil shock.

所以，现在很明显，虽然有供应链的问题，但经济中有一部分领域承受着很大的价格压力，这和石油能源没关系。

So, you know, right now, obviously, there's the the supply chain part, but there's a part of the economy that has a lot of price pressure that has nothing to do with, you know, oil energy.

所以，按照美联储一贯的框架，他们通常会忽略油价的影响，哦，抱歉。

So, you know, typical Fed framework is is, you know, they they look through oil, oh, I'm sorry.

他们选择忽略供应链冲击带来的影响。

They look through supply chain shocks.

他们的态度就是，好吧。

They're just like, alright.

这些都是一次性的事件。

These these are one offs.

它们可能会推高物价水平，但在那次性冲击过后，整体趋势并不会改变。

They might raise the price level, but the trajectories is after that one off, it's it's unchanged.

所以啊，最终通胀还是会回归常态，咱们又能过上安稳日子了。

So, you know, you know, it'll it'll mean revert, and we'll be, you know, happy days again with respect to inflation.

但到了深冬时节，情况根本没往这个方向走。

But that wasn't happening, by late, late winter.

抱歉，应该是去年年底，今年一月初。

I'm sorry, late last year, early January.

我记得一月份的月环比数据是0.42。

I think January, we came in at point four two month over month.

那时候我们就已经察觉到通胀压力在抬头了，比实际冲突早了整整两个月。

So we started seeing, you know, seeing the inflationary impulse building up, you know, two months before the actual invasion.

一月份本来就不稳定，历史上总有新年调价这一说。

You know, January is always kind of a kind of a a wild card because there is an element historically of New Year new prices.

对吧？

Right?

如果你是个商家，想借着通胀的名义涨价，那不就是顺水推舟嘛。

So if you're if you're a vendor and you, like, you play the inflation card, you know, you it's like, hey.