#227 沃伦·巴菲特随笔集

所以他意思是，听着，只要我们拥有的这些企业能产生一些现金流，我就不会完全出售它们。

So he's saying, listen, I'm not selling any of the businesses that we own completely assuming that they generate some cash.

即使我能卖掉它们，把钱转投到别的地方，我也不这么做。

Even if I could sell it, take that money and switch it to something else.

他说，实际上他觉得这样做在财务上是一种惩罚，他们愿意在金钱收益上做出让步。

And he says that it's actually he feels that it it penalizes like he they're willing to take a hit on the money aspect.

我一会儿会给出一个不同的观点，马上告诉你。

I'm gonna provide an alternative view on that and I'll give you that in one second.

他说，你们应该充分了解查理和我共同持有的一种态度，这种态度损害了我们的财务表现。

He said you should be fully aware of of one attitude Charlie and I share that hurts our financial performance.

无论价格如何，我们对出售伯克希尔所拥有的任何优秀企业都毫无兴趣。

Regardless of price, we have no interest at all in selling any good businesses that Berkshire owns.

只要我们预期这些表现不佳的企业至少能产生一些现金流，我们也非常不愿意出售它们。

We are also very reluctant to sell subpar businesses as long as we expect them to generate at least some cash.

玩纸牌游戏那样的管理行为——注意那个小钩子——不是我们的风格。

Gin rummy managerial behavioral behavior, see there's that little hook, is not our style.

我们强调，这里的评论指的是我们控制的企业，而不是股票。

We emphasize that the comments here refer to businesses we control, not stocks.

所以他要说的是，听好了。

And so he's saying, Listen.

你必须意识到，因为他正在对那些与他们合作投资、或可能投资伯克希尔的人说，即使这会损害我们的财务表现，我们也会这么做。

This is you gotta be aware because he's talking to to people that are investing with them and people that may potentially invest in Berkshire that we're gonna do this even if it hurts our financial performance.

然而，随着时间推移，如果你意识到这一点，这种做法实际上可能并不会损害他们的财务表现，因为这一政策很可能为未来收购更多企业创造机会。

However, when you realize this as time goes on, this might actually not hurt their financial performance because this this policy probably provides opportunities to buy more businesses in the future.

所以，如果你用一生的时间建立了一家企业，比如家族企业，你可能花了四十年，现在想为它找个归宿。

And so if you've spent your whole life building your business, are you and say it's a family business you spent maybe four decades and you wanna find a home.

有人真的在乎它。

Somebody actually cares about it.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是一家你无比热爱的企业。

So this is a business that you absolutely love.

你用一生去建设了这个企业。

You spent your whole life building this.

你把大量的生命和精力都投入进去了。

It's you gave all so much of your life energy to it.

你愿意把它卖给一个会转手倒卖的人吗？

Are you gonna sell it to someone who's gonna flip it?

还是愿意卖给像巴菲特这样有良好记录的人？

Or are you gonna sell it to somebody who's demonstrated a track record like Buffett has?

他说：我会收购。

Of, hey, I will buy.

我会让你和你的家人至少保留20%的股权，类似这样的条件，我记不清具体数字了。

I'll let I want you your family retain at least 20% ownership, something like that maybe I forgot what the number is now.

条款已经变了。

It's changed.

但你会有切身利益，继续经营它，而我们则完全不干涉，但你现在手头有了现金。

But you'll have some skin in the game and then you keep running it and we just leave you the hell alone, but now you have the cash.

所以，再次说，也许从短期来看，这会影响他的财务表现，但从长远来看，它为他打开了更多机会，而如果没有这项政策，这些机会可能根本不会出现。

And so again, maybe on a short term, it hurts his financial performance, but in the long term, it opens up so many more opportunities that if he didn't have this policy may not be available to him.

我觉得这是一个值得思考的有趣观点。

Think that's an interesting idea to think about.

这是另一个例子，你知道，我已经完成了230多本传记的撰写，这是我们正在做的项目。

It's another example of that fact that, you know, I'm what, 230 something biographies into this project that we're doing.

创始人和投资者在接近生命尾声时，不可避免地想要帮助下一代。

Founders and investors inevitably, they wanna help the next generation when they get close to the end of their life.

他们可能在事业巅峰时期并不愿意分享自己的秘诀。

They may not be sharing their secrets while they're in their prime.

但当他们走到生命尽头时，他们会说：嘿，这就是我学到的一切。

But when they get to the end, they say, hey, this is everything I learned.

我花了五十年时间打造了这家企业。

I spent five decades building this business.

我要把这一切写进书里。

I'm gonna put in the book.

读这本书。

Read the book.

我刚刚又重读了我之前在《创始人》第104期做的笔记。

I just talked to I just reread my highlights from I think it's founders number one zero four.

这是宜家创始人的传记。

It's the the biography of the founder of IKEA.

他17岁就创办了宜家。

He starts IKEA at 17 years old.

明白吗？

Okay?

他74年后去世。

He dies seventy four years later.

他为此工作了70年。

He worked on it for seventy years.

在他的一生中，无数次有作家来找他。

And all over and over again throughout his life, he was approached by authors.

嘿，我们来写一本传记吧。

Hey, let's write a biography.

让我们合作吧。

Let's collaborate.

他说：不行。

He said, no.

他最终同意了，因为他们说：你的经验将造福未来的创业者，而创业精神早已融入你的血脉，这就是他同意的原因。

He finally agreed to do this one because they said, your lessons will benefit future generations of entrepreneurs and his entrepreneurship wouldn't was in his blood and that's why he agreed to do it.

因此，书中提到，尽管我们仍不愿谈论具体的股票，但我们乐于畅谈我们的商业投资理念。

So it says though we continue to be unwilling to talk about specific stocks, we freely discuss our business investment philosophy.

这里的情况也是一样。

Same same situation here.

我从本·格雷厄姆那里受益匪浅，他是金融史上最伟大的导师。

I benefited enormously from the intellectual generosity of Ben Graham, the greatest teacher in the history of finance.

我认为，将我从他那里学到的东西传递下去是恰当的，即使这会为伯克希尔创造新的、有能力的投资竞争对手——就像本的教导曾为他本人所做的一样。

And I believe it appropriate to pass along what I learned from him even if that creates new and able investment competitors for Berkshire just as Ben's teachings did for him.

沃伦在几十年间反复提及并警告我们的是，商业领域普遍存在大量欺诈、谎言和欺骗行为。

Something Warren talks about and kind of warns us from over multiple decades is the fact that there's a lot of fraud and and and lying and just deceit in in business in general.

事实上，我刚刚重读了爱德·索普自传中的划线部分，他也是这么说的。

And this is gonna in fact, I just reread my highlights from Ed Thorpe's autobiography, and that's what he said.

让我读一段来自这本书《全市场之人》的内容。

Let me read something from this is from the book, A Man of All Markets.

实际上有两期播客。

There's actually two podcasts.

如果你们没听过的话，我在档案里已经读过两遍了。

I've read this twice in the archive if you haven't listened to it.

爱德·索普绝对是天才。

Ed Thorpe's a genius by far.

在我研究过的所有人中，他是最接近掌握人生真谛的人。

He's the person that out of every single person I've studied, he's the closest that has come to mastering life.

他说，在我五十多年的投资生涯中，金融媒体几乎每天都在报道的欺诈、骗局和造假行为从未停止过。

So he says the fraud, swindles, and hoaxes, a flood reported almost daily in the financial press have continued unabated during the more than fifty years of my investment career.

所以这正好说明了你为什么一定要读这本书。

So that that that tells you why you wanna read the book right there.

关键是，他在这五十多年的职业生涯中一直勤勉工作。

It's the fact that he worked at his careers over fifty years.

他写下这本自传，是为了提炼五十年职业生涯中的经验教训。

And he writes an autobiography to distill the lessons of a fifty year career.

自十七世纪市场诞生以来，骗局、欺诈和狂热以及大规模的金融非理性行为就一直存在。

Hoaxes, scams, and manias, and large scale financial irrationalities have been with us since the beginning of markets in the seventeenth century.

所以爱德是在告诉我们：这种事情已经持续了数百年。

So that's Ed telling us, hey, this has happened for hundreds of years.

未来也还会继续发生。

It will continue in the future.

他提到，好的进攻就是玩那些你拥有优势的游戏。

He talks about, hey, good offense is playing games where you have an edge.

这才是赚钱的方式。

That's how you make money.

但你也需要良好的防御，否则别人会把你的钱拿走。

But you need a good defense too or else people are gonna take your take that money from you.

现在我们来看看巴菲特是怎么说的。

And so now we get to Buffett just talking about this.

我们对那些模糊不清的会计方法非常警惕，因为这往往意味着管理层想隐瞒某些事情。

We're very suspicious of accounting methods that is vague or unclear since too often that means management wishes to hide something.

用笔偷走的钱比用枪抢走的还要多。

More money has been stolen with the point of a pen than at the point of a gun.

查理和我都对那些用华丽预测来吸引投资者的首席执行官管理的公司持怀疑态度。

Charlie and I tend to be leery of companies run by CEOs who woo investors with fancy predictions.

这些管理者中，少数人会证明自己具有先见之明，但其他人则可能是天真的乐观主义者，甚至是骗子。

A few of these managers will prove prophetic, but others will turn out to be congenial optimists and even charlatans.

不幸的是，他之所以提醒我们这一点，正是出于警告。

Unfortunately, and here's why he's telling us this as a warning from him to us.

不幸的是，投资者很难提前知道他们面对的是哪一类人。

Unfortunately, it's not easy for investors to know in advance which species they are dealing with.

因此，他给了我们三个建议，以避免被欺骗。

And so he gives us three ideas as a way to avoid getting ripped off.

给投资者的三条建议。

Three suggestions for investors.

首先，警惕会计制度薄弱的公司。

First, beware of companies displaying weak accounting.

当管理层在显而易见的方面走捷径时，很可能他们在幕后也采取了同样的做法。

When management takes the low road in aspects that are visible, it is likely that they are following a similar path behind the scenes.

厨房里很少只有一只蟑螂。

There is seldom just one cockroach in the kitchen.

第二，难以理解的脚注通常表明管理层不可靠。

Second, unintelligible footnotes usually indicate untrustworthy management.

所以，这意味着如果你使用大量术语，试图隐藏什么，你就应该用清晰简单的语言表达。

So it's talking about you should be able to to speak clearly and simple language if you're you're using a lot of jargon, if you're you're trying to to hide something essentially.

如果你无法理解某条脚注或其他管理层的解释，通常是因为首席执行官不希望你理解。

If you can't understood a footnote or an or other management explanation is usually because the CEO doesn't want you to.

安然公司对某些交易的描述仍然让我感到困惑。

Enron's descriptions of certain transactions still baffle me.

最后，要对那些大肆宣传盈利预测和增长预期的公司保持警惕。

Finally, be suspicious of companies that trumpet earnings projections and growth expectations.

企业很少能在平静无波、毫无意外的环境中运营——这一点非常重要，因为盈利从来不会平稳上升。

Businesses seldom operate, and this is such an important point, businesses seldom operate in a tranquil no surprise environment and earnings simply don't advance smoothly.

查理和我不仅不知道今年我们的企业明年会赚多少，甚至连下个季度能赚多少都不知道。

Charlie and I not only don't know today what our businesses will earn next year, we don't even know what they will earn next quarter.

我们对那些经常声称自己知道未来的首席执行官持怀疑态度，如果他们一贯能实现自己设定的目标，我们更是难以置信。

We are suspicious of those CEOs who regularly claim they do know the future, and we become downright incredulous if they consistently reach their declared targets.

总是承诺达成目标的管理者，终有一天会忍不住编造数字。

Managers that always promise to make the numbers will at some point be tempted to make up the numbers.

另外两处在不同页面上的重点内容，实际上讲的是同一件事。

Two more highlights on separate pages talk about really about about the same thing.

你必须认识到，没有捷径可走，质量至关重要，就像史蒂夫·乔布斯那句名言所体现的：你必须识别并只与高质量的人合作。

The fact that you have to have you have to only you have there is no shortcut around quality and quality such as people such echo that Steve Jobs quote, but you got to identify and only work with high quality people.

然而，高素质人才的供给非常有限。

And the the the supply of high quality people, unfortunately, is extremely small.

因此他说，查理和我知道，正确的员工能让几乎任何团队管理者显得出色。

So he says, Charlie and I know that the right players will make almost any team manager look good.

我们认同奥美公司创始人大卫·奥格威的经营理念，他也是我的个人偶像之一。

We subscribe to the philosophy of date of the founding genius of Ogivy and Mather, David Ogivy, another one of my personal heroes.

如果我们都招聘——这是奥格威的一句名言，沃伦也十分认同——

If each of us hire this is an Ogivy quote that that Warren subscribes to.

如果我们每个人都雇佣比自己能力差的人，那么我们最终会变成一家矮子公司。

If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs.

但如果我们每个人都雇佣比自己更优秀的人，我们就会变成一家巨人公司。

But if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants.

后来他谈到了他们保险公司GEICO卓越的管理，而我想到的是李小龙的一句名言：砍掉不必要的部分。

And so later on he talks about the fantastic management that is in their their insurance company Geico and really what I thought about this is the idea here is a Bruce Lee quote, hack away the unessential.

他们正是这样做的。

And so that's what they've done.

他们已经为托尼扫清了所有障碍。

They've removed any obstacle for Tony.

他们即将谈论或提到的那个人，他们会移除一切障碍，那些别人必须关注的琐事，这是因为伯克希尔拥有这家公司。

The guy they're about to talk to or talk about, they remove any obstacle, the unimportant things that other people have to focus on and that's because Berkshire owns the company.

因此，它指出，我坚信GEICO的故事展示了伯克希尔模式的优势。

So it says, I believe the GEICO story demonstrates the benefits of Berkshire's approach.

查理和我从未教过托尼任何东西，也永远不会教。

Charlie and I haven't taught Tony a thing and never will.

但我们创造了一个环境，让他能够将全部才能投入到重要的事情上。

But we have created an environment that allows him to apply all of his talents to what's important.

所以，也许我们也应该在自己的生活中这样做。

So maybe we should do that same thing in our own life.

我们应该创造一个环境，让自己能够将全部才能投入到重要的事情上。

We should create an environment that allows us to apply all of our talents to what's important.

砍掉那些不重要的东西。

Hack away the unessential stuff.

有很多琐碎的工作，一堆不重要的事情。

There's a bunch of busy work, bunch of unimportant things.

事实上，我写过一本很棒的书，叫《塔克西多公园》。

In fact, there's a fantastic book I did, Tuxedo Park.

这本书是关于阿尔弗雷德·李·卢米斯的传记，他被称为那个最迷人却无人知晓的人。

It's the biography of Alfred Lee Loomis, who is known as like the the most fascinating guy no one's ever heard of.

我从这本书中学到的一个非常有趣的教训是：扔掉待办事项清单。

And the the the main lesson I took away from that book is something that was really interesting, ditch the to do list.

阿尔弗雷德只会专注于当前最重要的一件事，并且直到这个问题解决为止，完全忽略其他可能重要但没那么重要的任务。

Alfred would only focus what is the single most important thing I need to work on and he would work on that until that problem is solved at the exclusion to other maybe important but less important tasks.

这个理念是，如果你始终只解决最重要的问题，你就会取得进展。

And this idea is like if you're only if you're always just solving the most important problem, you're gonna make progress.

所以，总之，就是这样。

So anyways, that's it.

这只是一个随机的想法。

That's a random thought.

让我回到这一点。

Let me go back to this.

所以，查理和我从未教过托尼任何东西，也永远不会教，但我们创造了一个环境，让他能够将全部才能投入到重要的事情上。

So it says, Charlie and I haven't taught Tony a thing and never will, but we have created an environment that allows him to apply all of his talents to what's important.

他不必把时间和精力花在董事会会议、媒体采访、投资银行家的演示或与金融分析师的会谈上。

He does not have to devote his time or energy to board meetings, press interviews, presentations by investment bankers, or talks with financial analysts.

此外，他根本不需要花哪怕一分钟去考虑融资、信用评级或华尔街对盈利的预期。

Furthermore, he never he never he need never spend a moment thinking about financing, credit ratings, or Wall Street expectations for earnings.

由于我们的所有权结构，他也知道自己的运营框架将在未来数十年内持续存在。

Because of our ownership structure, he also knows that his operational framework will endure for decades to come.

这个运营框架。

That this operational framework.

在这种自由的环境中，托尼和他的公司能够将几乎无限的潜力转化为相匹配的成就。

In this environment of freedom, both Tony and his company can convert their almost limitless potential into matching achievements.

再回到我之前提到的想法：你应该开设一门完整的大学课程，专门分析沃伦股东信中的教诲。

And to go back to this idea where I said that you should have an entire college level course of just analyzing the teachings in Warren Shareholder Letters.

这是两段话。

This is two paragraphs.

在这两段话中，他给了我们一个很好的想法。

And in two paragraphs, he gives us a great idea.

这些就是你想让业务更强壮时需要做的事情，而这也是如何确保让你的业务变弱的方法。

It's like these these are the things you need to do if you wanna make your business stronger and this is how you can guarantee to make your business weaker.

所以，我先给你一个概览，然后读给你听如何让业务更强壮。

So I'm gonna give you the overview first and read it to you how to make your business stronger.

第一，让客户感到愉悦。

One, delight customers.

第二，消除不必要的成本。

Two, eliminate unnecessary costs.

第三，持续改进你的产品。

Three, continuously improve your product.

非常简单。

Very simple.

如何让您的业务变弱。

How to make your business weaker.

第一，对客户漠不关心。

Number one, treat customers with indifference.

第二，容忍臃肿和浪费。

Number two, tolerate bloat and waste.

每一天，以无数种方式，我们每个企业的竞争地位都在变强或变弱。

Every day in countless ways, the competitive position of each of our business grows either weaker or stronger.

如果我们取悦客户、消除不必要的成本，并改进我们的产品和服务，我们就会增强实力。

If we are delighting customers, eliminating unnecessary costs, and improving our products and services, we gain strength.

但如果我们对客户漠不关心或容忍臃肿，我们的企业就会萎缩。

But if we treat customers with indifference or tolerate bloat, our businesses will wither.

每天，我们行为的影响都是微不足道的。

On a daily basis, the effects of our actions are imperceptible.

但累积起来，它们的后果是巨大的。

Cumulatively though, their consequences are enormous.

我认为任何尝试过健身或去健身房的人都会明白，你去健身房练一天，回家照镜子，什么变化都没有。

And I think anybody that's that's tried to like get in shape or go to the gym, they realize like you go to gym one day, you work out, you go home, look in the mirror, nothing's changed.

但你每天都坚持这么做。

But you do that every day.

然后六个月后、一年后、两年后，你才开始看到成果。

And then six months later, a year later, two years later, that's when you start to see the results.

对吧？

Right?

沃伦在这里说的也是同样的道理。

It's the same thing what Warren's talking about here.

每一天，不是在衰退就是在成长，不是变强就是在变弱。

Every day, it's either withering or growing, getting stronger or weaker.

但你不会在短时间内看到这些行为带来的后果。

But you're not gonna see those consequences of those actions for sort of for quite some time.

当我们的长期竞争优势因这些几乎难以察觉的行动而提升时，我们就称之为扩大护城河。

When our long term competitive position improves as a result of these almost unnoticeable actions, we describe the phenomenon as widening the moat.

所以这是他著名的说法之一：拓宽护城河。

And so that's one of his famous phrases, widening the moat.

他希望你想象你的企业就像一座城堡。

He wants you to picture like your business is a castle.

护城河显然是环绕城堡的水，使敌人更难攻占你的城堡。

The moat is obviously the water that encircles it that makes it harder to to lay siege to your castle.

其实你可以把它理解为企业维持竞争优势的能力。

Really just think about it's the bit your business's ability to maintain competitive advantage over your competitors.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以我们把这种现象称为拓宽护城河。

So it says, we describe this phenomenon as widening the moat.

你的企业正在变得更强、更持久，而做到这一点对于我们在十年或二十年后拥有理想的企业至关重要。

So your business is getting stronger, it's getting more durable, and doing that is essential if we are to have the kind of businesses we want a decade or two from now.

从短期来看，这非常好。

When short term this is so good.

当短期与长期利益发生冲突时，拓宽护城河必须占据优先地位，他特别强调了‘必须’这个词。

When short term and long term conflict, widening the moat must, and he emphasizes that word, must take precedence.

现在他提到，伯克希尔·哈撒韦最初实际上是一家位于新英格兰的纺织公司，他为此投入了二十年的资金，最终还是不得不关闭它。

So now he's writing the fact that Berkshire Hathaway literally started as a textile company in New England, and he threw money at it for twenty years, eventually has to close it down.

在关闭了这家真正赋予公司名称的纺织企业二十年后，这是他的总结。

And so this is his takeaway after closing the the actual textile firm where the the company gets his name from after twenty years.

根据我自己的经验以及对其他企业的大量观察，我认为，优秀的管理记录更多取决于你进入的是哪艘船，而不是你划船有多努力。

My conclusion from my own experience and much observation of other businesses is that a good managerial record is far more a function of what business boat you get into than it is on how effectively you row.

当然，在任何企业中，无论是好是坏，智力和努力都会起到相当大的作用。

Though intelligence and effort help considerably of course in any business good or bad.

如果你发现自己身处一艘常年漏水的船，与其花精力去修补漏洞，不如把精力投入到换一艘船上来，抱歉，我说的是修补船体的漏洞。

Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching links or leaks rather, excuse me.

这让我想起，我读过马克·安德森的东西。

This reminded me, so I read Marc Andreessen.

他有一个博客存档。

He has a blog archive.

如果你回溯到第50位创始人，我可以找到我链接的那篇。

If you go back to founders number 50, can see I linked to it.

你可以免费下载这个PDF。

You can download the PDF for free.

我觉得它大概有180页左右。

I think it's like a 180 pages something like that.

免费提供这份资料真是太棒了。

It's amazing that it's free.

你可以看到，这就像一位在创建初创企业方面极具天赋、并深入分析过商业历史的人。

You can and essentially it's like somebody that's really gifted at building startups and has analyzed business history.

他只是想分享他认为最重要的观察结果，这些或许能对你的旅程有所帮助。

Just think these are the most important observations that I have that may help you on your journey.

你也可以收听，这应该是第50期节目。

And you can also listen to think it's episode number 50.

但其中一点值得注意的是，马克认为自己拥有一个相当独特的视角，他会问：什么才是最重要的？

But one of the things that pops out is Mark felt that he had a rather unique perspective where he would ask, you know, what's most important?

在这三者中，哪一个最能预测一家企业的成功？

What what out of these three things, what is most predictive of businesses of a business' success?

是你所处的市场吗？

Is it the market that you operate in?

是你拥有的团队吗？

Is it the team you have?

是你的产品吗？

Is it the product?

所以他说，他在自己的博客存档中，为每一个因素都做了论证。

And so he says, he he and what he does in the the his blog archive, he makes the case for each one.

但他强调，你必须选一个，他说，是市场。

But he's like, you have to pick one, it he's like, it's the market.

即使市场的需求很强，市场本身也会逼出你的产品。

A market will even if there's strong demand in the market, it will pull product out of you.

这与沃伦所说的话不谋而合。

And so that is an echo of what Warren is saying.

听好了，如果你正身处一艘常年漏水的船里，比如在二十世纪七八十年代的美国想做纺织生意，你必须跳下这艘船。

Like, listen, if you're in a chronically leaking boat, if you're trying to build a textile business in the nineteen seventies and '80 in America, you gotta jump out of that boat.

不管你有多有天赋，你都赚不到多少钱。

It doesn't matter how gifted you are, you're not gonna make lot of money.

所以他继续说，当一个行业的基本经济状况正在崩溃时——这正是对纺织业的描述。

And so he continues when an industry's underlying economics are crumbling, which is a description of the textile industry.

对吧？

Right?

在那个历史时期，优秀的管理或许能减缓衰退的速度。

At that point in history, talented management may slow the rate of decline.

但最终，基本面的恶化会压倒管理者的才华。

Eventually though, eroding fundamentals will overwhelm managerial brilliance.

所以我想读给你听一句话。

And so it's just one line I wanna read to you.

我想让你了解一些背景情况。

I wanna give you some context of what's happening.

他在说，他和查理其实不太喜欢期权，比如股票期权这类东西。

He's talking about like they're him and Charlie don't really like options, like stock options, businesses.

他们曾经投资过一些地方，那里的薪酬体系就是这样。

They've bought somewhere that's like the the the compensation.

这里更大的观点是，你必须务实且灵活。

And the point the larger point here is that you have to be pragmatic and flexible.

他的意思是，听好了，这是我们看待这个问题的方式，但我们甚至也投资过那些使用期权且确实有效的公司。

And his point is like, listen, this is the way we think about this, but we've even invested in businesses where they have it and it actually works.

所以他提到，我们的结论是，我们不会只是坐在那里说：‘这生意在运转，但你用的是和我们不同的理念，所以我们得改掉它。’

And so he says, he's like, our conclusion is like, we're not just gonna sit there and like, the business is working, but you're using a different you're using a different philosophy than us, so let's just change it.

他说，这毫无道理。

He's like, that doesn't make any sense.

所以他讲，如果没坏，就别修。

So he says, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

与其追求绝对的纯粹，不如接受现实。

It's preferable to purity at any price.

所以他觉得，我有这些想法，而我对这些想法完全安心。

So he's like, I have these ideas and These are what I'm perfectly comfortable with.

但再说一遍，如果没出问题，就别去修它。

But again, it's if it's not broke, don't fix it.

我宁愿选择这个选项，而不是追求纯粹。

I'd rather choose that option and you have to purity.

你必须完全按照我所相信的、我认为正确的方式去做。

You have to follow exactly what I what what I believe and what I think is right.

我之所以把这一点提出来，是因为我曾经看到过一句最喜爱的格言，当我读到这一部分时，它突然浮现在我脑海里：商业就像自然。

Really, the reason I brought this to your attention is because one of my favorite quotes I've ever come across, it it popped into my mind when I got to this section and it says, business is like nature.

它并不关心你是否通过错误的推理得出了正确的答案。

It doesn't care if you arrive at the right answer from the wrong reasoning.

然后这简直太棒了。

And then this is just fantastic.

这是我见过的最喜爱的理念之一。

This is one of my favorite ideas I've ever come across.

我认为纳瓦尔·拉维坎特是那个真正让我明白这一点的人。

I think Naval Ravikant was the one that really put into words with me.

但读他的书时，他说：听着，你应该找到让你感觉像在玩的工作。

But reading the books, he put he says, listen, you should find work that feels like play.

对吧？

Right?

这是对这一点非常简单的描述。

That's a very simple way of describing it.

当你阅读这些传记时，你会意识到，我们这个时代最成功的创业者中，有很大一部分人都是找到了让他们感觉像在玩的工作的人。

And when when you read these these biographies, you realize, oh, a lot of people that there's a high correlation between the most successful entrepreneurs of our time all time and people that found work that felt like play.

他们并不觉得自己在工作。

They don't feel like they're working.

他们只是在玩。

They're just playing.

他们对此着迷，并且几十年如一日地做着自己痴迷的事情。

They're obsessed with it and they do and they're doing something they're obsessed about for multiple decades.

这就是他们能取得惊人成果的原因。

That's why they get these crazy results.

大多数人首先找不到像玩一样的工作，然后就放弃了。

Most people first don't find work that feel like play and most people quit.

他们会经营一家公司两年，卖掉它，再启动另一家，如此反复。

They'll run a business for two years, sell it, start another one, and then repeat over and over again.

有些人天生就是这样。

Some people are built that way.

你知道，如果你觉得这不是你，那你得做真实的自己。

You know, if you feel that's like like, I'm not, you know, it's like, you gotta be who you are.

我认为，查理·芒格会告诉你，要追随你自然的倾向。

Follow your natural drift, I think is what Charlie Munger would tell you.

但毫无疑问，最卓越的成果来自于那些长期坚持同一项事业的人。

But the the greatest results undoubtedly come from people that stick with the same business over an extremely long period of time.

沃伦说，要真正做到这一点，唯一的方法就是设计一个你真正享受的工作环境。

And Warren says, like, the only way to do that is to to to design something on a work environment that you actually enjoy.

因此，这种安排体现了几个非常简单的理念。

So says this arrangement embodies a very a few very simple ideas.

查理和我精心设计了公司和我们的工作，让我们能和喜欢的人一起做喜欢的事。

Charlie and I have carefully designed both the company and our jobs so that we do things we enjoy with people we like.

这是一个简单却强大的理念。

That's a very simple but powerful idea.

即使我们完全得不到报酬，查理和我也会为目前这份轻松的工作感到欣喜。

If we were not paid at all, Charlie and I would be delighted with the cushy jobs we hold.

我的一些亮点之一就是沃伦总能说出绝佳的金句。

And so some of my highlights is the fact that Warren just has fantastic one liners.

我认为我不需要再对这些金句做进一步解释。

I don't think I need to elaborate on them.

如果你在听这个，你足够聪明，完全可以自己领悟。

If you're listening to this, you're smart enough to do it yourself.

而且我真的说，我遇到的这类金句多得惊人。

And there's just I mean, it's amazing how many I come across.

这三个俏皮话分别出现在三页不同的地方。

These are three on three different one liners on three different pages.

如果你无法判断一个人站在哪一边，那他就不站在你这边。

If you can't tell whose side someone is on, they're not on yours.

我们能承受亏损，但无法承受哪怕一丝一毫的声誉损失。

We can afford to lose money, but we can't afford to lose even one shred of reputation.

在球场中央，有大把的钱可以赚。

There's plenty of money to be made in the center of the court.

他花了大量篇幅谈论企业文化。

He spent a great deal writing about corporate culture.

这非常有趣。

It was very interesting.

实际上，在书的末尾有一个完整的章节，详细阐述了巴菲特或伯克希尔的企业文化。

There's actually an entire section at the end of the where he goes into detail about Buffett's or just in Berkshire's corporate culture.

在这一章节中，查理·芒格给出了对巴菲特体系最出色的概述。

And in that section, Charlie Munger gives like the best overview of the Buffett system.

我看看能不能在网上找到它的链接。

I'll see if I can find it linked somewhere online.

我确实引用了它，所以我会找找看。

I I do quote from it, so I'll see if I can find it.

但通读整个章节是值得的。

But reading the whole section is is worth it.

但这只是其中一个例子。

But this is just an example of that.

他说，文化会自我传播。

And he says, cultures self propagate.

官僚程序会催生更多的官僚主义。

Bureaucratic procedures beget more bureaucracy.

好好想想这一点，就像你做什么就会得到更多一样。

And really think about that, it's like you get more of what you do.

所以文化会自我传播。

And so culture self propagate.

这让我想起查理在伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会上说过的话，他说：听好了，我没法给你一个公式，因为我根本不用任何公式。

This is oh, this is this is gonna remind me something I heard Charlie say in a in a at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, he says, listen, can't give you a formula because I don't use one.

商学院会给你一堆根本不管用的公式。

Business schools will give you a bunch of formulas that don't work.

所以这是巴菲特在1985年写到的，指出避开那些明显错误却非常流行的观点更好。

And so this is Buffett writing in 1985 about the fact that it's better to avoid theories that are clearly wrong but very popular.

在二十世纪七十年代初，大多数机构投资者在决定买卖价格时，认为企业价值只具有微不足道的相关性。

Most institutional investors in the early nineteen seventies regarded business value as as of only minor relevance when they were deciding the prices at which they would buy or sell.

现在看来，这简直难以置信。

This now seems hard to believe.

然而，当时这些机构深受顶尖商学院学者的影响，他们正在宣扬一种新出炉的理论。

However, these institutions were then under the spell of academics at prestigious business schools who were preaching a newly fashioned theory.

股票市场完全有效，因此计算企业价值甚至进行独立思考，在投资活动中都毫无意义。

The stock market was totally efficient and therefore calculations of business value and even thought itself were of no importance in investment activities.

我们对这些学者深表感激。

We are enormously indebted to those academics.

在智力竞赛中，无论是桥牌、象棋还是股票选择，有什么比对手被灌输‘思考是浪费精力’这种观念更有利的呢？

What could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest, whether it be bridge, chess, or stock selection, than to have opponents who've been taught that thinking is a waste of energy.

因此，巴菲特在这一部分的反例是，他和儿子在内布拉斯加买了一块农场，并在纽约大学附近购买了一些商业地产。

And so Buffett's counterpoint in this section, he buys a farm with his son in Nebraska, and he buys some commercial real estate by NYU in New York.

他本质上想说的是：别听他们的。

And he just essentially, what he's saying is like, listen, don't listen to them.

我给你举两个例子。

I'm gonna give you two examples.

这并不复杂。

This is not complicated.

做起来不容易，但并不复杂。

It's not easy to do, but it's not complicated.

别把它搞得过于复杂。

Don't overcomplicate it.

所以，他实际上是在给我们讲述两个关于基本面的故事。

So it's really he's he's giving us two stories of fundamentals.

我要告诉你他的要点。

I'm gonna tell you his takeaways.

我不必去细读他买纽约大学地产或农场的具体价格之类的信息。

I don't have to read through like the price he paid for the NYU or the farm or anything like that.

所以他说，听好了，我讲这些故事是为了说明投资的某些基本原则。

And so he says, listen, I tell these tales to illustrate certain fundamentals of investing.

记住，他谈的是买农场和买纽约大学旁边的商业地产。

Remember, he's talking about buying a farm and buying commercial real estate next to NYU.

第一，你不需要成为专家也能获得令人满意的投资回报。

Number one, you don't need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns.

但如果你不是专家，就必须认清自己的局限，并采取一种肯定能 reasonably 起效的策略。

But if you aren't an expert, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course that's certain to work reasonably well.

关注你所考虑资产未来的生产力。

Focus on the future productivity of the asset that you are considering.

在这种情况下，就是内布拉斯加的农场和纽约的房地产。

So in this case, it's a farm in Nebraska and real estate in New York.

如果你对资产未来收益的粗略估算感到不安心，那就别做。

If you don't feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset's future earnings, then don't do it.

干脆放弃，继续往前看。

Just forget it and move on.

所以他会说，你认为这个资产能产生多少现金流？现在他要讲，有些人并不这么做。

And so he's like, what is the cash that you think this thing's gonna throw off in the Now he's gonna say, some people don't do this.

有些人说，我花一百万美元买下的。

Some people say I bought it at for a million dollars.

我不关心它能产生多少收益。

I don't care what it makes.

我知道两年后，或者我觉得两年后，我能以两百万美元卖出去。

I know in two years from now or I think in two years from now, I'll sell for 2 millions.

所以他就会说，这是投机。

And so he's like, that's speculation.

这不是投资。

That's not investing.

如果你关注的是拟购资产的价格变动，那么你就是在投机。

If you instead focus on the perspective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating.

这本身并没有什么不妥。

There is nothing improper about that.

然而，我知道自己无法成功投机，也对那些声称能持续成功投机的人持怀疑态度。

I know however that I am unable to speculate successfully and I'm skeptical of those who claim sustained success at doing so.

我不确定这是否是我读过的那本书中的一个重点，还是我听他提到的，但他谈过自己更偏好投资而非投机的原因，因为他觉得投机就像参加派对时必须在午夜前离开，但房间里却没有钟表。

So I don't know if I don't know if I can't remember if this is a highlight in this book I read or if it's something I heard him say, but he talked about his the reason he prefers investing over speculation is because he feels speculating is like he feels there it's like dancing at a party and you have to leave by midnight, but there's no clocks in the room.

所以他的观点是，你无法预测你所投机的对象何时会停止上涨并转向下跌，从而让你血本无归。

And so his point is like you can't predict when you're you're the spec what you're speculating on is just gonna cease in increasing in value and is gonna go in the other direction and wipe you out.

他说，所有抛硬币的人中，有一半会在第一次抛掷中赢。

So he says half of all coin flippers will win their first toss.

但这些赢家如果继续玩下去，都不会预期自己能获得利润。

None of those winners has an expectation of profit if he continues to play the game.

而且，某项资产在近期价格上涨，绝不是——他特别强调，还用斜体标出这个词——购买它的理由。

And the fact that a given asset has appreciated in the recent past is never and he emphasized he italicizes this word, is never a reason to buy it.

事实是，某项资产近期价格上涨绝不是买入的理由。

Fact The that a given asset has appreciated in the recent past is never a reason to buy it.

对于我的两项小额投资，我只关心这些资产能产生什么收益，完全不在意它们每日的估值波动。

With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations.

这是我最喜欢的一句话。

And this is one of my favorite sentences.

他一遍又一遍地重复这一点。

He repeats this over and over again.

赢得比赛的是那些专注于赛场的选手，而不是那些眼睛死死盯着记分牌的人。

Games are won by players who focus on the playing field, not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.

我认为这是他的第五个观点。

This is his fifth point, I think.

形成宏观观点或听取他人对宏观经济或市场走势的预测是浪费时间。

Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time.

事实上，这样做很危险，因为它可能会模糊你对真正重要事实的洞察。

Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important.

当我听到电视评论员预测市场下一步走势时，我会想起米基·曼特尔那番尖锐的评论。

When I hear TV commentators opine on what the market will do next, I am reminded of Mickey Mantle's scathing comment.

除非你坐进播音室，否则你不会知道这游戏有多简单。

You don't know how easy this game is until you get into the broadcasting booth.

于是他在这里结束了这一部分。

And so he wraps up the section here.

我的两次购买分别发生在1986年和1993年。

My two purchases were made in 1986 and 1993.

至于之后几年——也就是1987年和1984年——经济、利率或股市会如何变化，这些对我做出投资决策毫无影响。

What the economy, interest rates, or stock market might do in the years immediately following, so it'd be 1987 and 1984, was of no importance to me in making those investments.

我记不清当时新闻头条或专家们都在说什么了。

I can't remember what the headlines or pundits were saying at that time.

无论外界如何喧嚣，玉米会在内布拉斯加继续生长，学生也会源源不断地涌入纽约大学。

Whatever the chatter, corn would keep growing in Nebraska and students would flock to NYU.

所以，正是在这里，这个组织真正受益——抱歉，是这个组织真正受益，因为十多年后，他重新回顾了这个相同的观点。

And so this is where this the the organization is benefit excuse me, the organization is book really benefits because over a decade later, he revisits that same idea.

我就读一段话。

And I'm just gonna read one paragraph.

这确实是他刚才试图教给我们的这一课的总结。

It's really the summary of what he just this lesson he was just trying to teach us.

我对这个总结的概括是：不要成为当下的囚徒，要有自己的思考。

And my summary of the summary is don't be prisoners of the moment and do your own thinking.

在我们共同合作的五十四年里，他和查理从未因为宏观经济、政治环境或他人观点而放弃一个有吸引力的收购机会。

In the fifty four years we have worked together, him and Charlie, we have never foregone an attractive purchase because of the macro or political environment or the views of other people.

事实上，我们在做决策时从不考虑这些因素。

In fact, these subjects never come up when we make decisions.

好的。

Okay.

所以这是一个广为人知的理念，但我觉得很重要——以防有人不了解，也为了提醒那些已经知道的人，这是他引入‘市场先生’概念的铺垫。

So this is an idea that's widely known, but I think is important in case some people don't know it and in case you do, it's important to to revisit and it's his introduction to to his mister market idea.

这是他从本·格雷厄姆那里学到的理念。

This is the idea he learned from Ben Graham.

因此，它说，当我们进行投资时，我们应把自己视为一名企业分析师，而不是市场分析师、宏观经济分析师，甚至不是证券分析师。

So it says, when we when we're investing, we view ourselves as a business analyst, not as market analyst, not as macroeconomic analyst, and not even a security analyst.

最终，我们的经济命运将取决于我们所拥有的企业的经济命运，无论我们的所有权是部分的还是全部的。

Eventually, our economic fate will be determined by the economic fate of the businesses that we own, whether our ownership is partial or total.

我的朋友和老师本·格雷厄姆很久以前描述了一种对待市场波动的心理态度，我认为这种态度最有利于投资成功。

Ben Graham, my friend and teacher long ago, described the mental attitude towards market fluctuations that I believe to be the most conducive to investment success.

他说，你应该想象市场报价来自一个极其随和的家伙，名叫市场先生，他是你私人企业的合伙人。

He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named mister Market, who is your partner in a private business.

他每天都准时出现，并报出一个价格，他要么以此价格买下你的股份，要么卖给你他的股份。

Without fail, mister Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

他这里真正想表达的是，我认为这主要是关于控制你的情绪。

And really his main point here is I think the main points of controlling your emotions.

尽管你和他共同拥有的企业可能具有稳定的经济特征，但市场先生的报价却完全不是这样。

Even though the business that the two of you may have that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, mister Market's quotations will be anything but.

很遗憾，这位可怜的家伙患有无法治愈的情绪问题。

For sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems.

有时，他情绪高涨，只看到影响企业的有利因素。

At times, he feels euphoric and can only see the favorable factors affecting the business.

在这种情绪下，他会报出一个很高的价格，因为他担心你会买下他的股份。

When in that mood, he names a very high price because he fears that you will snap up his interest.

在其他时候，他情绪低落，只看到企业与世界未来的种种麻烦。

At other times, he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble of ahead for both the business and the world.

在这种情况下，他会报出一个很低的价格，因为他感到恐惧。

On these occasions, he will name a very low price since he is terrified.

市场先生还有另一个可爱的特点。

Mister Market has another endearing characteristic.

他并不介意被忽视。

He doesn't mind being ignored.

如果今天他对你的报价你不太感兴趣，明天他会带着新的报价回来。

If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow.

交易完全由你决定。

Transactions are strictly at your option.

在这种情况下，他的情绪越躁郁，对你就越有利。

Under these conditions, the more manic depressive his behavior, the benefit, the better for you.

这是他提出的另一个重要观点。

This is another important point he makes.

市场先生的存在是为了服务你，而不是指导你。

Mister Market is there to serve you, not to guide you.

真正有用的是他的钱包，而不是他的智慧。

It is it is his pocketbook, not his wisdom that you will find useful.

如果某天他情绪特别愚蠢，你可以选择无视他，或者利用他。

If he shows up someday in particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or take advantage of him.

但如果你受了他的影响，那将是灾难性的。

But it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence.

事实上，如果你不确定自己比市场先生更懂且更能评估你的业务，那你就不该参与这个游戏。

Indeed, if you are if you aren't certain that you that you understand and can value your business far better than mister market, you don't belong in the game.

正如扑克牌里说的：如果你玩了三十分钟还不知道谁是傻瓜，那傻瓜就是你。

As they say in poker, if you've been in the game thirty minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.

然后他继续阐述这个观点：你的商业哲学中有一部分不会是财务方面的，而本就该如此。

And then he continues on about this idea where some part of your business philosophy is not going to be financial and that's the way it should be.

正如我们之前提到的，我不在乎能不能多赚几个百分点，我不会出售我拥有的企业。

As we referenced this earlier, it's like, don't care if I can get a couple more percentage points, I'm not selling a business that I own.

查理和我共同持有的这种坚定态度，显然融合了个人与财务的考量。

A determination to have and to hold which Charlie and I share obviously involves a mixture of personal and financial considerations.

对一些人来说，我们的立场可能显得非常古怪。

To some, our stand might seem highly eccentric.

查理和我长期以来一直遵循大卫·奥格威的建议：趁年轻时培养你的独特之处。

Charlie and I have long followed David Ogilvy's advice, develop your eccentricities while you're young.

这样，当你老了，人们就不会觉得你疯了。

That way when you get old, people won't think that you're Gaga.

当然，我们的立场看起来一定很奇怪。

Certainly, our posture must seem odd.

对许多在这一领域的人来说，公司和股票仅仅被视为交易的原材料。

To many in to many in that arena, both companies and stocks are seen only as raw material for trades.

然而，我们的态度符合我们的个性以及我们想要的生活方式。

Our attitude, however, fits our personalities and the way we want to live our lives.

温斯顿·丘吉尔曾说过，你塑造了你的房屋，然后它们反过来塑造你。

Winston Churchill once said, you shape your houses and then they shape you.

我们知道我们希望以怎样的方式被塑造。

We know the manner in which we wish in which we wish to be shaped.

所以我非常喜爱这个观点。

So I just love that idea.

你的商业哲学中总会有一部分不关乎财务，而这正是应有的样子。

Some part of your business philosophy will not be financial and that's the way it's supposed to be.

好的。

Okay.

这看起来可能有点奇怪，因为这里只有一句话。

So this must seem might seem a little odd because it's just one sentence here.

事实上，我觉得我有义务向你们说明，因为我并不是在简单地朗读这本书。

Really, what I feel is my obligation to you is like, I have to jot down because I'm not, like, I'm not just reading this book.

对吧？

Right?

我现在读的每一本书，都会带着过去四年我们所研读的数百本书的视角来看。

I'm like, every book I read now is seen through the eyes of the hundreds of other books and stuff we've been studying for the last four years.

所以他谈的是套利，关注活跃市场，但他对这些并不感兴趣。

And so he's talking about, like, arbitrage and and paying attention to, the active market and just he's not interested in that.

我想摘出一句话，然后告诉你我脑海中浮现的想法。

And so I just wanna pull out one sentence, and then I'll be to tell you the idea that popped in my mind.

它说，这并不是查理和我希望度过余生的方式。

It says, this is not how Charlie nor I wish to spend our lives.

辛辛苦苦致富，只是为了整天盯着行情屏，这有什么意义呢？

What is the sense in getting rich just to stare at a ticker tape all day?

如果你不喜欢整天盯着行情屏，我想补充一点，

If you don't, and I wanna add, if you don't like staring at a ticker tape all day.

有些人可能确实喜欢这么做。

Some people probably like doing that.

对吧？

Right?

所以让我想到的是，我正在读这一整段，当然，我只会为你摘出那一句话，那就是你可以两者兼顾。

And so the the thought that pops to my mind is I'm reading this whole section, which again, that's the only sentence I'm gonna pull off for you, is that you can do both.

意思是，第一，弄清楚你想要如何度过你的一生，因为这正是他刚刚说的。

Meaning, one, figure out how you wanna spend your life because that's what he just said.

赚钱的意义何在？

What's the point in getting rich?

首先，他说，那不是我们想度过人生的方式。

That's for first, he said, that's not how we wanna spend our lives.

如果我们做的是自己不想做的事，那赚钱还有什么意义？

What's the point in us getting rich if we're doing something we don't wanna do?

所以你的目标是两者兼顾。

So you the goal is to do both.

第一，弄清楚你想要如何度过你的一生。

One, figure out how you wanna spend your life.

第二，找出如何在做这件事的同时变得富有。

And two, find out how to get rich doing that.

前几天我和一个朋友进行了这样的讨论。

This is a discussion I was having with a friend the other day.

通常来说，重要的不是你做什么。

It's it's not it's usually not what you do.

而是你怎么做。

It's how you do it.

如果你看看几乎任何领域，比如我刚才在对话中想到的例子：有些房地产经纪人赚不到钱，而有些则赚了几百万。

If you look at almost any you have, like, the example I used in this in this conversation that just came to mind is, you know, you have realtors that make no money, and you have realtors that make millions.

有些播客创作者赚不到钱。

You have podcasters that make no money.

有些播客创作者却赚了数亿美元，最终会有人靠播客成为亿万富翁。

You have podcasters that make hundreds of millions of dollars, and eventually, there'll be a billionaire off of podcasting.

有些投资者赚不到钱，而有些则赚得盆满钵满。

You have investors that don't make any money and investors that make a ton.

不是你做什么。

It's not what you do.

而是你怎么做。

It's how you do it.

所以对我来说，不是这样的。

So to me, it's like, no.

让我们弄清楚如何同时做到这两点。

Let's figure out how to do both.

让我们弄清楚我想怎样度过我的一生，然后这才是真正困难的问题。

Let's figure out how do I wanna spend my life and then figure out and then that's actually the hard question.

对吧？

Right?

一旦你专注于这一点，我该如何通过做这件事变得富有？

And then from there, once you're focused on that, how can I get rich at doing that?

然后这一部分，我给自己留的笔记，这是一个提醒：好点子很稀少，一旦找到，就要重注押上，不要卖出。

And then this section, the note I left myself, this is a reminder that good ideas are rare when you find one bet heavily and don't sell.

当我们持有那些拥有卓越管理团队的杰出企业时，我们最理想的持有期限是永远。

When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding management, our favorite holding period is forever.

我们仍然认为，放弃一个既可理解又持久卓越的企业股权通常是愚蠢的。

We continue to think that it is that it is usually foolish to part with an interest in a business that is both understandable and durably wonderful.

这类企业资产实在太难替代了。

Business interests of that kind are simply too hard to replace.

找到一个你真正理解且持久卓越的企业很难。

It's hard to find a business that that you understand and it is durably wonderful.

好的。

Okay.

因此，关键在于专注于少数高质量的决策，而不是以为自己足够聪明，能做出数百个正确的决定。

So this is the idea that it's really important to focus on a few high quality decisions as opposed to thinking that you're smart enough to make hundreds of good decisions.

他说，查理和我早就决定，在投资生涯中，要做出数百个明智的决策实在太难了。

So he says, Charlie and I decided long ago that in that in an investment lifetime, it is too hard to make hundreds of smart decisions.

因此，我们采用了一种策略，只需要我们在极少数时候保持明智，而不需要太过聪明。

Therefore, we adopted a strategy that required our being smart and not too smart at that only a very few times.

我们现在每年只追求一个好点子。

We'll now settle for one good idea a year.

我会告诉你们为什么杰夫·贝佐斯得出了和沃伦这里相同的结论。

And I'm gonna tell you why this is Jeff Bezos arrived at the same conclusion that Warren's arriving at here.

我们采用的这种策略排除了遵循标准的分散投资教条。

This strategy we've adopted precludes our following standard diversification dogma.

因此，许多评论家会说，我们的策略比更传统的投资者所采用的策略风险更高。

Many pundits would therefore say the strategy that our strategy must be riskier than that employed by more conventional investors.

我们不同意。

We disagree.

投资组合集中，意味着你的大部分资产集中在少数几家企业。

Portfolio concentration, meaning most of your assets in a handful of small businesses.

对吧？

Right?

这会提高投资者对企业的思考深度，也要求他在买入前对企业的经济特征有充分的信心。

Raises both the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the comfort level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into it.

所以，如果你把所有鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里，你肯定会死死盯着那个篮子。

So it's again, if all of your eggs are in one basket, you damn sure are gonna watch that basket.

这正是他在这里要表达的观点。

This is this is the point that he's making here.

所以在《发明与 wonder》这本书里，呃，我想是创始人部分的第155页。

So in the book Invent and Wonder Invent and Wonder, excuse me, I think it's founders number one fifty five.

这本书汇集了杰夫·贝佐斯所有致股东的信件。

It's all Jeff Bezos' shareholder letters combined.

第二部分是对他一些最佳演讲的编辑整理版。

The second section the second section is like edited transcription of some of his best talks.

他是这么说的。

This is what he says.

我需要八小时的睡眠。

I need eight hours of sleep.

我思考得更好。

I think better.

我更有精力。

I have more energy.

我的情绪更好。

My mood is better.

想想看。

And think about it.

作为一名高级管理人员，你真正拿薪水是做什么的？

As a senior executive, what do you really get paid to do?

你的职责是做出少数几个高质量的决策。

You get paid to make a small number of high quality decisions.

如果我每天做出三个好的决策，那就足够了。

If I make, like, three good decisions a day, that's enough.

而且它们应该达到我所能达到的最高质量。

And they should be just as high quality as I can make them.

沃伦·巴菲特说，他一年能做出三个好的决策就很不错了。

Warren Buffett says he's good if he makes three good decisions a year.

我真的相信这一点。

And I really believe that.

于是沃伦谈到了何时需要分散投资，何时不需要。

And so then Warren gets into when diversification is needed and when it is not.

因为有时这是一种明智的策略。

Because sometimes it's a smart strategy.

所以他将讨论哪些类型的投资类别适合这种情况。

And so he's gonna talk about like what what kind of investment classes would fit into that.

一些投资策略需要广泛分散投资。

Some investment strategies require wide diversification.

如果单笔交易存在重大风险，应通过将该投资作为众多相互独立的承诺之一来降低整体风险。

If significant risks exist in a single transaction, overall risk should be reduced by making that purchase one of many mutually independent commitments.

所以他会说，这确实是风险投资家的道路。

So he's gonna say this is really the path of venture capitalists.

如果你相信自己的收益将远超损失，你可以有意识地进行高风险投资。

You may consciously purchase a risky investment if you believe that your gain considerably will considerably exceed your loss.

如果你能投入到一系列相似但不相关的机遇中，大多数风险投资者都会采用这种策略。

And if you can commit to a number of similar but unrelated opportunities, most venture capitalists employ this strategy.

另一种需要广泛分散投资的情况是，当一位投资者并不了解特定企业的经济状况，但仍相信长期持有美国产业符合他的利益时。

Another situation requiring wide diversification occurs when an investor who does not understand the economics of specific businesses, nevertheless believes it's in his interest to be a long term owner of American industry.

这位投资者应当持有大量股票，并且分批进行购买。

That investor should both own a large number of equities and space out his purchases.

所以他是在问，最广泛的分散投资形式是什么？

So he's saying that what's the widest form of diversification?

你通过指数基金持有整个市场。

You own the entire market through an index fund.

他说，如果你这样做的原因是，不了解投资的普通投资者实际上能够超越大多数投资专业人士。

And he says, if the reason you wanna do this is because know nothing investors can actually outperform most investment professionals.

悖论的是，他指出，你对投资了解不多，并不意味着你笨。

Paradoxically, and he's saying that that, like, just because you're you don't know much about investing, right, that doesn't mean you're dumb.

这真是对这一部分的绝佳总结或结论。

And this is such a good summary or conclusion to that one section.

这更像是一段话。

It's a paragraph rather.

讽刺的是，当无知的资金承认自己的局限时，它就不再无知了。

Paradoxically, when dumb money acknowledges its limitation limitations, it ceases to be dumb.

所以如果你知道，嘿，我没有什么独特的技能。

So if you know, hey, I'm not I'm not I don't have some unique skill.

我没法像沃伦那样挑选一堆股票和企业。

I can't just pick a bunch of stocks and businesses like Warren can.

那我就直接买指数基金吧。

So let me just buy the index.

于是，他现在给了我们另外两个例子。

And so then this is his now he's he just gave us two other examples.

对吧？

Right?

而这就是他选择的道路。

And now this is his chosen path.

我在这段话下面记下的笔记是，大多数创始人都属于这一类，因为只要你需要一个成功的企业——也就是你拥有的企业——就能让你变得极其富有和成功。

And the note I jotted down right under this is that most founders fall into this category because if you just need one successful business, the business that you own, to make yourself wonderfully rich and successful.

对吧？

Right?

另一方面，如果你是一个有所专长的投资者，能够理解商业经济，并找到五到十家定价合理的公司——他仍然从投资者的角度在讨论。

On the other hand, if you are a know something investor, able to understand business economics and to find five or to 10 sensibly priced companies, so he's still talking about from a investor's perspective.

即使对于创始人来说，可能也只需要一个。

Even for a founder, it could just be one.

对吧？

Right?

即使杰夫·贝佐斯再也没在亚马逊之外做过任何投资，他依然极其富有。

If if Jeff Bezos never made another investment with Amazon, he's still fabulously wealthy.

尽管你知道，他确实投资了不少其他项目。

Even though, you know, he does he invests in quite a few other things.

所以他说，你只需要五到十家定价合理、拥有重要长期竞争优势的公司。

So it says, you just need five to 10 sensibly priced companies that possess important long term competitive advantages.

传统的分散投资对你来说毫无意义。

Conventional diversification would make no sense to you.

这只会损害你的收益并增加你的风险。

It is apt simply to hurt your results and increase your risk.

我不明白，为什么一个这样的投资者会选择把钱投到他排名第二十的企业，而不是简单地把钱加到他最看好的企业上。

I cannot understand why an investor of that sort elects to put money into a business that is his twentieth favorite rather than simply adding that money to his top choice.

他最了解的企业——这也是大多数创始人所处的类别。

The businesses he understands best this is the part that most founders fall into.

他最了解、风险最低且盈利潜力最大的企业。

The businesses he understands best and that present the least risk along with the greatest profit potential.

这应该是你的首选。

That is his should be your favorite.

你最了解的企业。

The business you understand best.

用先知梅·韦斯特的话说，好事过多，也可能美妙无比。

In the words of the prophet Mae West, too much of a good thing can be wonderful.

事实上，我认为沃伦所谈的这些经验教训，核心就在于专注。

And really, the way I think about all these lessons that Warren is talking about, like, he's essentially his his his main lesson is focus.

如果你回顾创业史，集中精力的重要性显而易见。

If you go through the history of entrepreneurship, the importance of concentrating and focus is obvious.

这一点一再重复出现。

It repeats over and over again.

然而，却有一个非常常见的错误。

And yet, there's a mistake that's very common.

我刚刚和一位朋友聊过。

I've just talked to I was just talking to a friend of mine.

他刚为一家初创公司筹集了一大笔资金，可他满嘴说的都是NFT和加密货币。

He just raised a bunch of money for a startup, And all he wanted to talk about was NFTs and crypto.

于是我问他，你对这些东西了解得挺深的，你花了多少时间在上面？

And so I asked him, I was like, how much time are you like, he sounded rather to me, sounded rather knowledgeable on this stuff.

我问他，你到底花了多少时间在这些事情上？

And I was like, how much time are you spending on this?

他说：我不知道。

And he's like, I don't know.

每周花十到十五个小时阅读和学习这些内容。

Like, ten, fifteen hours a week reading about it and learning about it.

就我个人而言，我觉得这些话题挺有意思的。

And personally, I think these subjects are interesting to talk about.

它们展现了对未来独特的设想。

They bring up unique visions of the potential future.

但我只是告诉他：你知道这有多疯狂吗？

But I just told him, was like, you know how crazy that is?

别想着你每周花了十个小时在这上面。

Like, essentially don't think about it as like I'm spending ten hours a week on this.

一个月下来，你花了四十个小时研究与你的业务毫无关系的东西。

So in a month, you're spending forty hours researching something that's not has nothing to do with your business.

一个正在成长但尚未盈利的业务。

A business that's growing but not yet profitable.

这对你来说有意义吗？

Like, like, does that make any sense to you?

所以我跟他说，听着。

And so I told him, was like, listen.

我完全无法想象，史蒂夫·乔布斯、杰夫·贝佐斯、恩佐·法拉利、埃德温·兰德和大卫·奥格威在创业初期，每个月会花四十个小时去研究与自己业务无关的东西。

I couldn't for the life of me, I could not imagine a Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, and Enzo Ferrari, and Edwin Land, and David Ogilvy spending forty hours a month when they're at the early days of building their business on something not related to their business.

我说，听着，如果你想投资这些领域，更聪明的做法是找到真正懂行的人，然后把钱交给他去投资。

I was like, listen, if you wanna invest in those things, find the smart move is find somebody that's really into it, and then just give them your money to invest.

但你真觉得，每个月把四十小时的注意力从你的业务上转移开，不会付出任何代价吗？

But you really think you're not paying any penalty for diverting forty hours of your attention away from your business a month?

如果你相信这一点，那你简直疯了。

You're insane if you believe that.

但这种无法专注的问题非常普遍，尤其是在今天。

But this inability to focus is endemic and especially in sit in today.

我认为这自古以来就存在于人类身上。

I think it's been with humans forever.

但尤其是在现在，我们每天都会被推送数以百万计的干扰信息。

But especially in, this where we're just served up multiple, like millions of distractions every day.

但在创业历史中，这种情况却并不普遍。

But the place where it's not endemic is the history of entrepreneurship.

这一点非常清楚。

It's very clear.

你必须先集中精力。

You gotta focus first.

如果你想做其他所有事情，那就等以后再做。

You wanna do all this other stuff, do it after.

等以后再说。

Do it later.

你绝对不能在一开始就这么做。

You definitely can't do it at the beginning.

这在我看来简直疯狂。

That's just crazy to me.