#282 杰夫·贝佐斯致股东的信

杰夫却说，不是这样的。

And Jeff's like, no.

我们才刚刚起步而已。

We haven't even barely begun.

他说，现在的互联网还处在1908年胡利洗衣机的阶段。

He says we're in the nineteen o eight Hurley washing machine stage of the Internet.

你得看看那段视频，才知道有多搞笑。

You have to watch the video to understand that it was actually hilarious.

这段话真的特别激励我。

This is the paragraph that just fires me up.

因为我对播客也有同样的感受。

If you real because I feel this way about podcasting.

如果你真觉得这还只是刚刚开始，那你就是非常乐观。

If you really do believe it's the very, very beginning, then you are incredibly optimistic.

我相信，未来还有更多创新等着我们，远多于我们已经走过的路。

I do think there is more innovation ahead of us than there is behind us.

我们现在还处于非常非常早期的阶段。

We are very, very early.

结果证明，杰夫说得完全对。

And Jeff turned out to be dead right.

我愿意花十八分钟把这段视频看完。

I would spend the eighteen minutes to watch the video.

真的太棒了，简直无可挑剔。

It's absolutely it's just fantastic.

你能看到我们在思考。

You see us thinking.

这就像是2003年的杰夫·贝索斯，他根本没想到自己有多正确，也完全没意识到前方等着他的公司会迎来怎样的创新与突破。

It's just the the Jeff Bezos of 2003, like, he had no idea how correct he was and the innovation and inventing that laid before him for the company that he was building.

确实如此，顺便说一句，他现在的样子完全不一样了，好吧。

Absolutely and he looks completely different, by the way, Alright.

那我们再回到这一点上。

So let's go back to this.

在线销售相比传统零售，是个讲究规模的生意。

Online selling relative to traditional retailing is a scale business.

这其实又回到了他的核心观点。

So this goes back to his main idea.

听好了，只要你上网做生意，就可以做得很小，也可以做得极大。

Listen, if you're on the Internet, you can be really small or really big.

他很明显是打算做到最大的那个。

He obviously is like, we're gonna be the biggest.

这就是为什么在线销售这么特别。

Online and this is why.

在线销售相比传统零售，属于高固定成本、低可变成本的规模型业务。

Online selling relative to traditional retailing is a scale business characterized by high fixed cost and relatively low variable cost.

这就让中间规模的电商公司特别难做。

This makes it difficult to be a medium sized e commerce company.

再来看2001年的股东信，我们就能看到这个想法——感觉所有事情都是连在一起的。

So moving on to the 2,001 shareholder letter, we see this idea, we feel everything is connected.

这封备忘录是我写给自己的。

The note is simple to myself.

重复这个循环。

Repeat this loop.

重点关注成本优化。

Focus on cost improvement.

这其实是个很老的道理，你我都懂的。

So this is a very old idea, something you and I have learned.

创业史上到处都是这样的例子，所有创业者都在反复强调一件事：盯紧成本。

History of entrepreneurship is full of people that just keep telling you all the founders keep telling you over and over again, watch your cost.

盯紧成本。

Watch your cost.

我常想起一句话，记不清是安德鲁·卡内基还是他的合伙人克莱·弗里克说的。

The maxim that I always think of I can't remember if it was either Andrew Carnegie or his partner, Clay Frick.

各位，一定要盯紧成本。

Gentlemen, watch your cost.

他们在整个组织里反复强调这一点。

That is what they preached up and down their organizational structure.

注意控制成本。

Watch your cost.

注意控制成本。

Watch your cost.

注意控制成本。

Watch your cost.

聚焦于降低成本。

Focus on cost improvement.

这是杰夫在提醒你。

This is Jeff telling you.

为什么这这么重要？

Why is it so important?

他一再强调节俭和保持低成本结构的重要性。

He brings up the the importance of frugality and having a low cost structure over and over and over again.

专注于降低成本，让我们有能力降价，从而推动增长。

Focus on cost improvement makes it possible for us to afford to lower prices, which drives growth.

增长之后，固定成本分摊到更多销量上，单位成本就降低了，这又为进一步降价创造了条件。

Growth then spreads fixed costs across more sales, reducing cost per unit, which makes possible more price reductions.

顾客喜欢这样，股东也受益。

Customers like this, and it's good for shareholders.

请期待我们不断重复这个循环。

Please expect us to repeat this loop.

接着，他开始总结他们取得的一些成果和增长。

Then he starts to summarize some of the gains and growth they had.

我挑出一句话，因为他说这是最重要的一点，也是他最常重复的一句话。

Gonna pull out one sentence because he says this is the single most important thing, and it is probably what he repeats the most.

最重要的是，我们始终坚定不移地以客户为中心。

Most important, we stayed relentlessly focused on the customer.

然后他转入下一段内容。

Then he jumps into the next paragraph.

全心全意关注客户。

Obsess over customers.

他才不在乎你是不是觉得他老说重复的话。

He does not he he does not care if you think he repeats himself.

他就是会这么说。

He does.

而且他是故意的。

And he does that intentionally.

他一遍又一遍地强调这些观点，就是在告诉你，什么对他来说最重要？

He is telling you with the frequency in which he he repeats these ideas, what is important to him?

我特别喜欢这一点。

I love this.

全心全意关注客户。

Obsess over customers.

直到七月，亚马逊主要依靠两大客户体验支柱：商品选择和便捷性。

Until July, Amazon had primarily been built on two pillars of customer experience, selection and convenience.

我们新增了第三个客户体验支柱：持续不断地降低价格。

We added a third customer experience pillar, relentlessly lowering prices.

他又用上这个词了——持续不断地降低价格。

So now he's using that word again, relentlessly lowering prices.

他是想说，我们之所以能提升客户体验，是因为商品选择更多、更方便了，直接把你要的东西送上门，不用你开车去店里，也不用排队，其他都省了。

He's like, listen, we were able to improve the customer experience because we have more selection and it's more convenient if we just ship you what you want and say you drive it to the store or waiting in line, everything else.

那他是怎么想到要持续不断地降价的呢？

Now, where did he get the idea to relentlessly lower prices?

如果你听过第179期节目，那是我读完杰夫的传记《一切皆商店》的时候，那应该是我第二或第三次读这本书了，故事你早就知道了。

If you listen to episode one seventy nine, which is when I read Jeff's biography, which is called The Everything Store, I think that was the second or third time I read it, you already know the story.

这个想法源于杰夫一生中最重要的一次会议之一。

This came as a result of one of the most important meetings that Jeff had in his entire life.

据我回忆，是好市多的创始人吉姆·西纳戈尔跟杰夫约了喝咖啡。

It is when Jim Synagogle, the founder of Costco, met with Jeff for coffee, if I remember correctly.

他们其实是在巴诺书店里的一家星巴克见面的，这挺讽刺的，因为当时我所在的公司正是亚马逊的主要竞争对手。

They actually meet for coffee inside, like, a Starbucks inside of a Barnes and Noble, which is funny because I was obviously one of Amazon's main competitors at the time.

所以我打算读几段《一切皆可购》里的精彩内容。

And so I wanna read a bunch of highlights from The Everything Store.

这简直太棒了。

This is absolutely fantastic.

我特别欣赏吉姆·西纳戈尔的思维方式。

I love the way Jim Senegal thinks.

很多人都在问，你为什么没做一期关于好市多的节目？

I wish so many people are like, why haven't you done an episode on Costco?

可惜的是，目前还没有关于吉姆·西纳戈尔的书或传记。

I can't there's no books on no biographies on Jim Synagogue, unfortunately.

等哪天他出一本自传，我就立刻做一期播客。

And the day it releases, I wish you'd write an autobiography, is the day I make the podcast.

这里只是简单交代一下，他们俩其实有很多相似之处。

So it says it's just giving some background on the fact that they have a lot a lot alike.

就像贝佐斯一样，西纳戈尔多年来多次拒绝了收购要约，其中甚至包括山姆·沃尔顿的提议。

Like Bezos, Senegal have rejected multiple acquisition offers over the years, including one from Sam Walton.

塞内加尔常说，他根本没有考虑过退出，他是在为公司打造长远未来。

And Senegal like to say he didn't have an exit strategy that he was building a company for the long term.

贝索斯认真倾听，又一次从这位更有经验的零售前辈身上汲取了关键经验。

Bezos listened carefully and once again drew key lessons from a more experienced retail veteran.

你和我此刻正在做些什么呢？

What are you and I doing at this exact same moment?

这正是贝索斯当时所做的事情，完完全全一样。

It is exactly, exactly what Bezos did.

他痴迷于研究和学习那些走在自己前面的人。

He was obsessed about studying and learning from people that came before him.

在这个案例里，吉姆·塞内加尔显然比当时的贝索斯更成功、更富有——当然，现在情况已经不一样了。

And in this case, Jim Senegal is way more successful and way more wealthier, obviously, that's changed now, than Bezos was at the time.

贝索斯认真倾听，又一次从这位更有经验的零售前辈身上汲取了关键经验。

Bezos listened carefully and once again drew key lessons from a more experienced retail veteran.

那杰夫又是怎么做的呢？

And what does Jeff do?

他可不是随便说一句‘这想法不错’就完了。

He doesn't just, oh, that's that's a nice idea.

他会把这想法拿过来。

He takes that idea.

学到一个新点子，就回公司死磕到底，一定要落实到位。

He learns a new idea, goes back to a company, and relentlessly implements it.

西内加尔把好市多的模式详细讲给了贝佐斯。

Sinegal explained the Costco model to Bezos.

核心就是留住顾客。

It was all about customer loyalty.

普通的好市多仓库里，商品大概只有四千种。

There are some 4,000 products in the average Costco warehouse.

每样东西都堆得满满的，价格还低得惊人。

There are copious quantities of everything in there, and it's all dirt cheap.

好市多大批量采购，所有商品一律加价14%，哪怕明明能卖得更贵。

Costco buys in bulk and marks up everything at a standard across the board 14%, even when it could charge more.

这个想法是贝索斯的。

That's an idea that Bezos has.

他在商品种类、便利性和价格上都碾压了对手。

He's beating them on selection, convenience, and prices.

当人们说，嘿，我们价格比他们低那么多，

When people say, hey, you know, we're we're beating them on on prices by such a large margin.

不如再涨一点吧。

Let's increase it a little bit more.

他却说，不行。

He's like, no.

synagogue 的盈利主要来自年度会员费。

Synagogue goes into the fact that their most all their profit comes from the annual membership.

这跟 Prime 的模式简直一模一样。

It's gonna sound a lot like what Prime turns into.

对吧？

Right?

吉姆告诉他们，会员费是一次性支出，但每次顾客走进店里，看到一台比别处便宜两百美元的47英寸电视时，这种价值就被重新强化了。

Jim told them the membership fee is a one time pay pain, but it reinforced its but its value is reinforced every time customers walk in and see a 47 inch TV that's $200 cheaper than anywhere else.

后来，吉姆也明白了这一切是如何环环相扣的。

And then Jim also realized how it all connects.

好市多的低价带来了巨大的销量，公司再利用自身的规模优势，向供应商争取最优惠的条件，从而提升了每单位商品的毛利金额。

Costco's low prices generated heavy sales volume, the company then used its significant size to demand the best possible deals from suppliers, thus raising its per unit gross profit dollars.

你可能会问，吉姆，你为什么要教潜在的竞争对手呢？

And you have to ask, Jim, why are you educating a potential competitor?

吉姆说，因为我从前辈那里受益过，他们把想法分享给了我。

And Jim says, because I benefited from people that came before me that gave me their ideas.

十年后，当吉姆终于准备退休时，他依然清楚地记得那次对话。

A decade later and finally preparing to retire, Senegal remembers the conversation well.

我觉得杰夫看到后，觉得这招也能用在自己的生意上。

I think Jeff looked at it and thought that was something that he could apply to his business as well.

他从不后悔向一个后来变成强劲对手的创业者传授经验。

He does not regret educating an entrepreneur who would evolve into a ferocious competitor.

吉姆是这么说的：我们一直毫不客气地借鉴任何好点子。

This is what Jim said: I've always had the opinion that we have shamelessly stolen any good ideas.

结果就是：贝索斯把2001年那次咖啡谈话中学到的经验，彻底用上了。

And then this is the result: Bezos took the lessons he learned during that coffee in 2001 and applied them with a vengeance.

和塞内加尔会面后的星期一，贝索斯在高管会议一开始就说，他决心要做出改变。

The Monday after the meeting with Senegal, Bezos opened an S team, that's his executive team meeting, by saying he was determined to make a change.

据在场的几位高管回忆，他说公司的定价策略一团混乱。

The company's pricing strategy, he said according to several executives who were there, was incoherent.

亚马逊嘴上喊着低价，但有些商品的价格反而比竞争对手还高。

Amazon preached low prices, but in some cases, the prices were higher than competitors.

就像沃尔玛和好市多一样，贝索斯认为亚马逊也该实行天天低价。

Like Walmart and Costco, Bezos said Amazon should have everyday low prices.

正因如此，只要亚马逊能在价格上保持竞争力，就能靠无限的商品选择和顾客不用出门、不用排队的便利性赢得市场。

This is why, if Amazon could stay competitive on price, it would win the day on unlimited selection and on the convenience afforded to customers who didn't have to get in the car to go to a store and wait in line.

那年七月，由于那次务实的会议，亚马逊宣布将图书、音乐和视频产品的价格下调20%到30%。

That July, as a result of the cynical meeting, Amazon announced it was cutting prices of books, music and videos by 20 to 30%.

也就是在那时，他们开始意识到飞轮效应。

And this is when they started identifying the flywheel.

他们开始看清那个在股东信里提过好几次的循环。

They started identifying the loop that has been mentioned a few times in the shareholder letter.

到目前为止，更低的价格带来了更多顾客访问，顾客多了，销量就上升，也吸引了更多支付佣金的第三方卖家入驻平台。

So far, lower prices led to more customer visits, more customers increased the volume of sales, and attracted more commission paying third party sellers to the site.

这让他们能更好地分摊固定成本，刚才他提到过这一点。

That allowed Amazon to get more out of fixed cost, which he just referenced.

对吧？

Right?

我们本质上是个固定成本很高的企业。

It's like, we are a large fixed cost business.

在线销售是个规模很大的生意。

Online selling is a large excuse me.

让我念一下。

Let me read it.

让我别歪曲他的意思。

Let let me not butcher his point.

我得回溯一下去年的情况。

I'm gonna go I had to let me go back in the previous year.

在线销售是一种规模型业务，特点是固定成本高，可变成本相对低。

Online selling is a scale business characterized by by high fixed costs and relatively low variable costs.

对吧？

Right?

他又回到了这一点。

And he goes back to this.

这使得亚马逊能更充分地利用固定成本，比如仓储中心和运行网站所需的服务器。

This allowed Amazon to get more out of fixed costs, like the fulfillment centers and the servers needed to run the website.

更高的效率又让它们能进一步降价。

This greater efficiency then enabled it to lower prices further.

他们认为，只要推动飞轮的任何一个环节——也就是杰夫和他的管理团队。

Feed any part of this flywheel they reasoned, that is Jeff and his executive team.

对吧？

Right?

他们就是这么想的，而且完全想对了。

This is their thinking behind this, and they were dead right about this.

只要推动飞轮的任何一个环节，整个循环就会加速。

Feed any part of this flywheel they reasoned, and it should accelerate the loop.

接下来事情就变得特别惊人了。

And this is where it gets really crazy.

如果你相信杰夫在那次与吉姆·塞内加尔的会面中学到的理念帮助亚马逊渡过难关并发展壮大，再看看亚马逊在那次会议前后的巨大差异——它能撑过接下来的二十年，全靠这些理念。

If you believe the ideas that Jeff learned in that meeting with Jim Senegal helped Amazon survive and then grow, and you look at the difference between where Amazon was before the meeting and where it is as a result of the fact that it was able to survive for the next twenty years.

这些理念值多少钱？

What is the value?

这些理念的经济价值到底有多大？

What is the economic value of those ideas?

这就是为什么研究创业史如此重要。

This is why studying the history of entrepreneurship is so valuable.

确实如此。

It is exactly.

《穷查理宝典》里有一句话，完美概括了你我正在领悟的道理。

There's a line in poor Charlie Charlie's Almanac, the wit and wisdom of Charlie Munger, that summarizes exactly what you and I are learning.

在《穷查理宝典》里写道：三十美元的史书里，藏着价值数十亿的智慧。

And in poor Charlie's Almanac, it says, there are ideas worth billions in a $30 history book.

这就是我们知道自己走在正确路上的原因。

That is how you and I know we're on the right track.

我是在录音棚里录下这些的。

I record this in a recording booth.

我现在真想一脚踹开门。

I feel like kicking the door right now.

这些想法让我充满能量，因为它们对每个人都是可及的。

This fills me up with so much energy because it's attainable for all of us.

这些思想的集合。

The collection of these ideas.

当然，具体怎么执行还得靠我们自己，但真让人惊讶的是，这么多创业者愿意无私分享他们的经验，让我们从中学习。

Obviously, the application execution is on us individually, But it's crazy how generous so many these entrepreneurs are with letting us learn from their experience.

这真让人热血沸腾。

It gets you alright.

我得冷静一下。

I'm gonna I gotta calm down.

好了。

Alright.

接下来是2002年。

Going to 2,002.

我太喜欢这个了。

I love this.

至少在我看的这本书里，他们给这些观点都起了标题。

So the the at least in the book that I'm reading, they title all these.

书里说，对客户有利的，对股东也有利。

And it says, what's good for customers is good for shareholders.

我写了‘杰夫反复强调这一点’，一遍又一遍。

I wrote Jeff Repeats This over and over again.

他说，这其实挺有意思的，因为这里只有一段话。

And he says, this is really interesting because I there's only one paragraph here.

但很多内容都让我先读一读这段话。

But a lot of what came to let me read the paragraph.

我觉得先读这段话，再跟你说我为什么想到亨利·福特。

I think reading the paragraph first and then telling you why I thought of Henry Ford.

我来念给你听。

Let me just read it to you.

我们最令人兴奋却鲜为人知的特点之一，就是被严重误解了。

One of our most exciting peculiarities is poorly understood.

人们说，我们决心同时提供世界级的客户体验和最低的价格。

People say that we are determined to offer both world leading customer experience and the lowest possible prices.

但对一些人来说，这个双重目标看起来自相矛盾。

But to some, this dual goal seems paradoxical.

这事儿发生在我和塞内加尔聊完一年后。

So this is a year after talking to Senegal.

他说，我们要做到价格最低，同时提供世界一流的客户体验。

He says, hey, we're gonna do lowest prices possible and world leading customer experience.

我之所以想到这个，是因为我刚重读了一遍亨利·福特的自传。

The reason I think that popped to mind is because I just I just reread Henry Ford's autobiography.

那是第266期节目，你可以在第266期的节目笔记里找到。

That's episode two sixty six, and you can look in the the show notes of episode two sixty six.

书里说，亨利·福特的企业理念，或者他最看重的东西，其实可以用五个字概括：最低成本，最大服务。

It said, like, you could distill Henry Ford's, like, his his philosophy on company building or what was important to him down to five words, maximum service at minimum cost.

在这本自传里，还有一个观点和杰夫说的非常相似——亨利·福特也强调，我不想生产廉价但低质的产品。

And also in that autobiography, which is a very similar theme to what Jeff's saying that he's trying to do here, there's something also very similar to this philosophy with Anne Henry Henry Ford's autobiography, he's like, listen, I don't wanna make a low quality cheap product.

我想生产的是便宜但高品质的产品。

I wanna make a high quality cheap product.

或者更准确地说，我不想做那种廉价又低劣的东西。

Or maybe a better way to put that is like, I don't wanna make a low quality inexpensive product.

我想做出高品质又实惠的产品。

I wanna make a high quality inexpensive product.

现在杰夫进一步说明，他是从吉姆那里学到这一点的。

So And now Jeff goes into more detail about, hey, I learned this from Jim.

我们会提供每日低价。

We're gonna have everyday low prices.

他回到会议中，告诉团队：我们要像好市多和沃尔玛一样，只要我们能跟上他们的价格，就能实现每日低价。

He goes back to the meeting, tells his s team, hey, we're gonna be just like Costco and Walmart, because if we can match the prices, these we're gonna have everyday low prices.

我们在价格上能跟他们持平。

We can match them on price.

但我们在便利性和商品种类上会超越他们。

We're gonna beat them on convenience and selection.

对吧？

Right?

你看他们愿意付出多少努力，来确保真正落实贝索斯所说的这个原则——我们要用实际行动证明，这对我们来说真的很重要。

And so look at the the amount of work they're willing to do to make sure they're actually matching the this goal where Bezos is saying, hey, we're gonna organize around this principle, and we're gonna show with our actions that's important to us.

我们的定价目标不是只对少数商品进行短期打折，而是每天提供低价，并覆盖我们整个产品线。

Our pricing objective is not to discount a small number of products for a limited period of time, but to offer low prices every day and apply them broadly across our entire product range.

为了说明这一点，我们最近做了一次价格对比，对象是一家知名大型书店连锁。

To illustrate this point, we we recently did a price comparison versus a major well known chain of book superstores.

我们没有特意挑选一组书来跟他们比价。

We did not handpick a choice choice group of books against which we wanted to compare.

对吧？

Right?

他说，相反，我们用了他们公布的2002年全年最畅销的100本书的清单。

So he says, instead, we we we use their published list of their 100 best sellers for the year 2002.

于是他们说，行吧。

So then they say, okay.

你们把全年最畅销的书列出来。

You you put out this this is your best selling books for the year.

一共100本，我们就去这些店核对价格。

100, we're gonna go to these stores.

我们会把这所有的书都买下来。

We're gonna buy all these books.

我们会去你们店里看看买这些书要花多少钱，然后我们也会在我们这边做同样的操作。也就是说，我们亲自走访了他们的门店，对这100本书逐一标价。

We're gonna see how much it costs us to buy it at your store, and then we're gonna do the same thing on So it says, we priced all 100 titles by visiting their stores.

我们花了六个小时，跑了他们四家不同的大型书店，才把清单上的100本书全部找齐。

It took us six hours in four of their different superstores to find all 100 books on their list.

所以你看，这些明明是他们最畅销的书，

So right there, it's like, wait a minute, these are your best selling books.

我却得跑四家店才能凑齐全部100本。

I had to go to four different bookstores just to get all 100 of them.

对吧？

Right?

而你们只要坐在电脑前，几分钟就能搞定。

Where you could just sit down in front of your computer and do this way faster.

我们把所有价格加起来发现，在他们的店里，这100本畅销书总共要花1561美元。

When we added everything up, we spent we discovered that at their stores, these 100 best selling books cost $1,561.

在亚马逊上，同样的100本书总共只要1195美元，省了366美元，相当于23%。

At Amazon, the same books cost 1,195 for a total savings of $366 or 23%.

2003年那封信其实很短。

2,003 is a really short letter.

它讲的全是长期思维，核心是说，你得从客户的长远利益出发来设计体验。

It's all about long term thinking and it really is talking about, hey, you need to design your customer experience with their long term benefit.

要心里想着客户长期的好处，而不是眼前能赚多少钱。

The long term benefit of the customer in mind, not the money that you'll make in the short term.

他说这听起来反直觉，也很少见，还举了个特别贴切的例子，说明为什么这么做特别难。

And he's saying this is counterintuitive and rare, and he gives a perfect example to illustrate why it's so difficult to do that.

我们在设计客户体验时，始终考虑的是长期的用户利益。

As we design our customer experience, we do so with long term owners in mind.

我们让客户可以自由评价产品。

We we empower customers to review products.

这些评价，现在大家都知道了。

So the the reviews, obviously, knows this now.

当时我们认识这位销售人员。

This was a rep that we knew at the time.

你可以写评价。

You could do a review.

比如你上亚马逊买东西，商品页面上要是有一两条差评，或者一堆差评，你可能就干脆不买了。

Like, you're going to Amazon to buy something, and they on their own the sales page could be a bad review or, you know, like, a bunch of bad reviews, and so you don't buy them.

所以我们收到一些商家的投诉，他们甚至怀疑我们是不是搞清楚自己到底在做什么生意。

So it says, we received complaints from a few vendors basically wondering if we understood what business we're in.

你卖东西才能赚钱。

You make money when you sell things.

你们为啥要在网站上允许差评呢？他们这么问。

Why would you allow negative reviews on your website, they said.

以我个人为例，我确实因为看到差评或冷淡的评价，而改变过在亚马逊上的购买决定。虽然差评短期内影响了销量，但帮助顾客做出更好的选择，最终对公司是有利的。

Speaking as a focus group of one, I know I've sometimes changed my mind before making purchases on Amazon as a result of negative or lukewarm customer reviews Though negative reviews cost us some sales in the short term, helping customers make better purchases decisions ultimately pays off for the company.

这一点特别重要，因为他认为客户利益和股东利益根本不存在冲突。

And that is so important because he feels there is no misalignment between customer and shareholder interest.

只要你始终把客户放在第一位，长期来看，股东自然会得到回报。

If you always take care of the customer, then the shareholders will be rewarded over the long term.

他在股东信里多次引用本·格雷厄姆的话，不是那本书，是股东信。

He quotes Ben Graham a bunch in this book as well, or not the book, in the Shareholder Letters.

从长远来看，只要你坚持这么做，股东和客户的利益就是一致的。

On that time scale, the interest of shareholders and customers are aligned, if you do this over a long period of time.

对吧？

Right?

今年，广受关注的美国客户满意度指数给亚马逊打了88分，这是任何服务行业有史以来的最高分。

This year, the widely followed American Customer Satisfaction Index gave Amazon a score of 88, which is the highest customer satisfaction score ever recorded in any service industry.

美国客户满意度指数的一位代表说，如果分数再往上走，他们都要流鼻血了。

A representative of the American Customer Satisfaction Index was quoted as saying, if they go any higher, they will get a nosebleed.

杰夫接着说，我们还在继续努力提升。

And then Jeff says, we are working on that.

而且，这态度就是这么毫不掩饰地极致。

Again, unapologetically extreme.

他的标准高得离谱。

He's got ridiculously high standards.

他已经是顶尖的了。

He is already the best.

亚马逊在这项指数上已经创下了所有公司中的最高分。

Amazon already got the highest score out of any company on this index ever.

可他还说，行吧。

And he's like, okay.

我还是想做得更好。

I still wanna be better.

明白了。

Okay.

然后他写了一封致股东的信。

So then he's got a shareholder letter.

这部分简直太厉害了。

This is this part is incredible.

这一切关键在于做决定。

It's all about making decisions.

真正重要的是判断力，以及为什么数据有时反而会带你做出错误的选择。

Really, on the need for good judgment, and why data may actually lead you to make the wrong decision.

这也解释了他为什么强调‘漫无目的探索’的重要性。

And this is also why he talks about the importance of wandering.

他说，自己这辈子最棒的决定，都不是靠数学算出来的。

He says like the best decisions he's ever made in his life were not math driven.

而是靠直觉、靠感觉做出的选择。

They were like intuitive taste, or like gut based decisions.

他一开始会跳过那段‘有数据的话，做决定其实很简单’的说法——但后面他补充说，当你在创业时，千万别等数据齐全，别非等到90%有把握才行动，那样你根本跟不上节奏。

He starts out, I'm gonna skip over the part where he's like, you know, if you have data, making decisions is really easy, but usually when you're building a company, and he says this later on, he's like, listen, if you wait for all the data, if you wait to get 90% sure, like, you're just going to move too slow.

你得学会在只有所需数据七成的情况下，照样做出果断的判断。

He's like, you're going have to get used to being really good at making decisions with maybe 70% of the amount of data that you actually need.

所以他讲，不是所有重要的决定都能靠数学方式来解决。

So he says, Not all of our important decisions can be made in a math based way.

有时候我们几乎没有历史数据可以参考，这时候就得主动做实验来获取信息，对吧？

Sometimes we have little or no historical data to guide us, and proactive experimentation as a means to get data, right?

而主动实验往往根本没法做，不现实，或者干脆就等于决定要往前走了。

And proactive experimentation is impossible, impractical, or tantamount to a decision to proceed.

这些决策最关键的因素，其实是判断力。

The prime ingredient in these decisions is judgment.

他借此引出，为什么自己要大幅降价。

He uses that as an opening to describe like why is he significantly lowering prices.

我们决定年复一年地持续、大幅度地为顾客降价。

We have made a decision to continuously and significantly lower prices for customers year after year.

这是一个典型的、无法靠数学计算做出的重要决策。

This is an example of a very important decision that cannot be made in a math based way.

所以他解释说：除了极少数情况，短期内销量的增长根本不足以弥补降价带来的损失。

And so he explains: With rare exceptions, the volume increase in the short term is never enough to pay for the price decrease.

然而，我们对需求弹性的量化理解，只限于短期。

However, our quantitative understanding of elasticity is short term.

我们可以估算降价这一周、这一季度会带来什么影响，但最关键的是——

We can estimate what a price reduction will do this week and this quarter, But we and this is the most important part.

但我们无法用数字准确预测，持续降价在五年、十年甚至更长时间里会对公司产生什么影响。

But we cannot numerically estimate the effect that consistently lowering prices will have on our business over five five years or ten years or more.

我们的判断——他特别强调了‘判断’这个词——我们认为，坚持不懈地把效率提升和规模经济带来的好处以更低价格返还给客户，能形成一个良性循环，长期来看，会带来远超以往的自由现金流，也让亚马逊变得更有价值。

Our judgment, and he italicizes the word judgment, our judgment is that relentlessly returning efficiency improvements and scale economies to customers in the form of lower prices creates a virtuous cycle that leads over the long term to a much larger dollar amount of free cash flow, and thereby to a much more valuable Amazon.

有没有人知道，为什么这么少的企业能真正理解这一点？因为基于数据的决策，大家容易达成共识。

Any hints on why so few businesses get this correct: Math based decisions command wide agreement.

而基于判断的决策，自然会引发讨论，也常常充满争议。

Judgment based decisions are rightly debated and they're often controversial.

我们会从客户出发，倒推回去做决定。

We will start with the customer and work backwards.

在我们的判断里——这个词又出现了——这才是创造股东价值的最佳方式。

In our judgment, there's that word again, in our judgment, that is the best way to create shareholder value.

接下来这位股东转向思考：你怎么决定什么时候该开拓新业务？

The next shareholder is goes into his thinking about, hey, like how do you decide when to like build new business?

你怎么决定要进入哪个领域呢？

Like how do you decide what to go into?

你可以这么想，他问了这个问题，贝佐斯，你到底什么时候要开实体门店？

And really you could think about, he's gonna give us, he's asked the question, hey, Bezos, when are you actually gonna go into open physical stores?

对吧？

Right?

这是2006年的事。

This is in 2006.

我想总结一下这一点。

And this goes back to I would summarize this.

他说，我对做那种没什么特色的普通商品生意完全没兴趣，这个我们刚才已经聊得很透了。

He's like, I have no interest in building an undifferentiated commodity business, which you and I just discussed in length.

因为我刚读完彼得·蒂尔的《从0到1》，书里核心观点就是，普通的商品生意根本赚不到钱。

Cause I just read Peter Thiel's book, The Main Theme of Zero to One is the fact that undifferentiated commodity businesses don't make any money.

书里明明白白写着，别去搞这种生意。

It explicitly says in that book, don't build one.

这是第278期，如果你还没听过的话。

That's episode two seventy eight, if you haven't listened to it yet.

我经常被人问，你们什么时候开实体店？

I often get asked when are you going to go open physical stores?

实体店网络的潜在规模确实让人兴奋。

The potential size of a network of physical stores is exciting.

对吧？

Right?

实体零售是个老派又复杂的行业，已经有很多人做得很好了，而我们还没想出能为客户带来真正独特体验的实体店方案。

Physical world retailing is a cagey and ancient business that is already well served, and we don't have any ideas for how to build a physical world store experience that's meaningfully differentiated for customers.

贝索斯特别看重差异化。

Differentiation is something that Bezos is obsessed with.

他上一封致股东的信里最有趣的一个观点就是，他认为差异化就是生存之道，这需要你持续投入精力，因为世界总想让你变得平庸。

One of the most interesting themes in his last shareholder letter is the fact that he feels differentiation is survival, And it's a con it's something you have to put a constant amount of energy into because the universe wants you to be typical.

所以十五年前，杰夫就说过：我对做那种毫无特色的普通商品生意毫无兴趣。

And so Jeff, you know, fifteen years ago said, Hey, I have no interest in building an undifferentiated commodity business.

我不会贸然进入这个领域。

I'm not going to jump into this.

你知道，这是个巨大的市场。

You know, this is large market.

在找到差异化的方法之前，我照样能赚不少钱。

I can make a lot of money until I figure out a way to differentiate.

十五年过去了，他依然坚持‘差异化就是生存’这个观点。

And fifteen years later, he's still using the fact that, hey, differentiation is survival.

这真是个绝妙的箴言。

That's such a fantastic maxim.

他始终强调差异化的重要性，以及如何打造新业务。

Still the importance of differentiation and how he thinks about building new businesses.

在一些大公司里，由于需要极大的耐心和培育，从零开始孵化新业务往往很难。

In some large companies, it might be difficult to grow new businesses from tiny seeds because of the patience and nurturing required.

亚马逊的文化却格外支持那些潜力巨大的小业务。

Amazon's culture is unusually supportive of small businesses with big potential.

我认为这就是我们的竞争优势所在。

And I believe that's a source of our competitive advantage.

另一件事，我不确定他是否明确说过这句话，但他肯定认同这一点。

Something else I don't know if he ever explicitly uses this sentence, but this is definitely something he would agree with.

耐心本身就能成为竞争优势。

Patience can be a competitive advantage.

我们公司里有很多人亲眼见证过数个百万美元级别的初创项目成长为十亿美元的企业。

We have many people at our company who have watched multiple $10,000,000 seeds turn into billion dollar businesses.

这种亲身经历，加上围绕这些成功所形成的氛围，正是我们能从零开始创办新业务的重要原因。

That firsthand experience and the culture that has grown up around those successes is a big part of why we can start businesses from scratch.

这种文化要求这些新业务必须具备高潜力、创新性和独特性。

The culture demands that these new businesses be high potential and that they be innovative and differentiated.

这个词又出现了。

There's that word again.

所以它们必须具备高潜力、创新性和独特性，但并不要求一出生就规模庞大。

So they have to be high potential, innovative, and differentiated, but it does not demand that they be large on the day that they are born.

接下来这一部分讲的是一群传教士。

And then this next section is on a team of missionaries.

这是他核心观点之一。

It's one of his main themes.

他说，听好了，传教士是真正在做产品，而且做得更好。

He says, listen, missionaries build, they just build better products.

他们做事不是为了钱，而是出于真心的投入。

They actually care for non financial reasons.

我读这段话，是因为这对我也特别重要。

I'm reading this because this is also very important to me.

阅读啊，说白了是我一辈子的热爱。

Reading is, you know, a lifelong passion of mine.

这可能是我这辈子最重要、也坚持得最久的爱好。

It's maybe the most it is the most important hobby I've ever developed and the longest running hobby that I've had.

把阅读当成一种强制的冥想。

Think about reading as forced meditation.

我觉得书籍是对抗注意力持续时间变短的良方。

I think books are the antidote to, like, shorter attention spans.

在我看来，除了书籍和播客，其他任何媒体都很难比它们更值得花时间。

I don't think there's a better use of my time in any form of media besides books and podcasts.

我觉得这两者结合在一起，效果特别强——你可能在自己生活中也体会过。

I think that the combination of both, just the amount like, if you if you in my own, like, life, you may have experienced as well.

我上大学时学到的东西，跟自己通过书籍和播客学到的相比，还不到百分之一。

It's, everything I learned in college is compared to, like, what I've learned from books and podcasts on my own is less than 1%.

我觉得它们真的特别重要。

I just think they're extremely important.

我很喜欢他说亚马逊最初从卖书起步，因为他们是阅读的传道者。

I love the fact that he says that Amazon, you know, started with books because they were missionaries for reading.

而且他的想法确实更出色。

And then he just has better ideas.

听杰夫讲话时，他总在引用那些启发他的书。

When you hear Jeff's talk, he's constantly referencing the books that he is learning from.

我刚听了他的一场演讲，好像是在《大卫·鲁宾斯坦访谈》之类的节目里。

I just heard a talk, one talk he gave, I think it was like The David Rubenstein Show or something like that.

那时候他已经很有钱了，可以说是世界上最富有的人，可他还在引用书籍。

And he's already the rich at that point, he was like the richest person, quote unquote, in the world, and he's referencing books.

对吧？

Right?

他有无穷的资源，完全可以请任何人给他一对一授课。

He has infinite amount of resources, could hire anybody to give him one on one teaching.

对吧？

Right?

或者他可以向世界上任何人学习，但他还是愿意花二十美元买本书，从中获得极大的价值。

Or he could learn from anybody in the world, and yet he can still pick up a book that's $20 and and that get that he finds valuable in his life.

他后来提到这一点是有原因的，他在说改进一本书有多难。

There's a reason he talks about this later on that anything that is he's talking about how hard it is to improve the book.

我本来没打算讲这一点。

I wasn't gonna read this point.

我只是觉得这挺有意思的，突然就想起来了。

I just thought this was interesting, but it just came to mind.

任何东西如果在五百年间基本保持原样、抗拒改变，那它就不太可能被轻易超越。

Anything that has persisted in roughly the same form and resisted change for five hundred years is unlikely to be improved easily.

他说，你永远也超越不了这本书。

He's like, you could never outbook the book.

我们人类确实会适应，但更重要的其实是阅读的价值。

So we humans cope, but the larger point here is really the importance of reading.

不管是谁，都有时间——无论是听有声书，还是用Kindle，或者看纸质书，读书都该是你的必备技能。

No matter everybody has time, whether it's an audiobook, whether it's, you know, Kindle, doesn't matter, a physical book, they have to be part of your repertoire.

我们人类和工具是共同演化的，我们改变工具，工具也反过来改变我们。

We humans co evolve with our tools, we change our tools, and then our tools change us.

几千年前发明的书写，是个了不起的工具。

Writing invented thousands of years ago is a grand whopper of a tool.

我毫不怀疑，它彻底改变了我们。

And I have no doubt that it changed us dramatically.

五百年前，古腾堡发明的印刷机，让书籍的成本大幅下降。

Five hundred years ago, Gutenberg's invention, the printing press, led to a significant step change in the cost of books.

纸质书带来了一种全新的协作与学习方式。

Physical books ushered in a new way of collaborating and learning.

最近，像电脑和手机这样的网络工具也改变了我们。

Lately, network tools, like computers and cell phones, have changed us too.

它们让我们越来越倾向于碎片化获取信息，我觉得还让我们注意力更难集中了。

They shifted us towards information snacking, and I would argue towards shorter attention spans.

他整个观点就是，他们做Kindle的初衷就是这个。

His whole point is like that why they were trying to make the Kindle.

他其实是想让更多人读书，让人的注意力能更持久一些。

This you should he's trying to get more people to read, right, to have a longer attention span.

我听过最好的关于阅读的描述，好像是一个图书管理员说的。

The best description of reading I ever heard was from I think she was a librarian.

我之前提过好几次了，但现在想不起来了。

I've mentioned this a few times, and I can't remember.

该把她的名字记下来，回头再找找看。

Should write down her name and go find it again.

她说，阅读就像一种强制性的冥想。

But she said reading is forced meditation.

没人会把刷社交媒体称为强制性的冥想。

No one is going to ascribe spending time on social media as forced meditation.

如果我们的工具让信息碎片化变得更方便，我们就会越来越偏向碎片化阅读，远离深度阅读。

If our tools make information snacking easier, we're going to shift towards information snacking and away from long term reading.

Kindle 是专门为深度阅读设计的。

Kindle is purpose built for long form reading.

我们希望，Kindle 能在多年间慢慢引导我们，走向注意力更持久的世界。

We hope Kindle may gradually and incrementally move us over years into a world with longer attention spans of or with longer spans of attention.

他写这些话的时候是2007年。

He's writing this in 2007.

这么多年过去了，谁都不会说我们现在注意力更持久了，对吧。

There's no way that I think anybody's gonna argue that we have longer attention spans now, you know, many years later.

只要 Kindle 能够对近年来泛滥的信息碎片化工具起到平衡作用，因为这些工具实在太让人上瘾了。

Provided they would the Kindle would provide a counterbalance to the recent proliferation of info snacking tools, because the info snacking tools are very addictive.

它们确实能带来短暂的快乐，但你刷了一个小时社交媒体之后，绝不会觉得：‘哇，这真棒。’

You know, very they're they can be short term pleasurable, but no one's gonna after you scroll through social media for an hour, you're not like, oh, that was so great.

但如果你读了一本特别好的书，花一小时沉浸在一个杰出作家和深刻思想的世界里，你会感到充满能量。

As opposed to, like, if you read a really great book and you spend an hour with just an amazing writer and amazing mind, you're energized from that.

对吧？

Right?

我意识到我刚才的语气有点过了。

I realized my tone here.

其实读完之后我才明白，虽然这严格来说不是一本传统意义上的书，但我是用读纸质书的方式在看这些股东信，读完之后整个人都振奋了。

Like, when I got done, I know this is technically not a book, even though I'm reading it in a book form, these shareholder letters, I was filled with energy.

我忍不住想，这简直是送给全世界、送给未来一代代创业者的一份厚礼——杰夫花了那么多时间，投入了大量编辑和写作，把二十多年来的经验浓缩成这些信件。

I was like, I cannot believe this is like a gift to the world, a gift to the future generations of entrepreneurs, that Jeff took the time, you know, how much editing and writing went into, and distilling all these experiences of twenty plus years of shareholder letters.

这简直是个奇迹。

Like, it is such it's a miracle.

这不仅仅是因为他传递给我们的那些宝贵的知识和智慧。

And it's not just for the the information, the valuable knowledge and wisdom that he transfers to you and I.

更重要的是，他花时间静下心来，专注地思考自己要说的话，不被其他事情打扰。

It's the hours put into sitting there and really thinking about what he's saying and not thinking about anything else.

这真的太棒了。

It's just absolutely fantastic.

我意识到，我的语气在这里有点像传教士。

I realize my tone here tends towards the missionary.

看来我的语气确实就是这样。

I guess my tone does too.

我可以向你保证，这完全是发自内心的。

And I can assure you it's heartfelt.

我很庆幸这一点，因为传教士式的人往往能做出更好的产品。

I'm glad about that because missionaries make, or excuse me, missionaries build better products.

接下来我们来看下一年，这一切都是从终点倒推开始的。

Moving to the next year, this is all about working backwards.

为什么呢？

Why?

他在讲，从客户需求出发逆向思考，实际上能让你在长期中成为更出色的从业者。

He's talking about why working backwards from the customer needs will actually make you a more skilled operator over time.

这一点特别有意思。

This was very interesting.

我喜欢他讲解的方式：先提出一个主题或观点，反复提及，但每次表达都不一样，再层层推进，让你慢慢理解得更深。

Because I like how he'll introduce a topic, introduce an idea, he'll repeat it, but he repeats in different ways, and then he builds on it, so you have a deeper understanding over time.

这些信里的内容写得非常出色，思路也特别清晰。

This is very, very well written and very clear thinking in these letters.

在全球经济动荡的背景下，他写这些是在2008年金融危机之后，但我们根本的做事方式始终没变。

In this turbulent global economy, he's writing this after the great financial crisis in 2008, our fundamental approach remains the same.

我们会埋头苦干，专注长期目标，始终把客户放在第一位。

We will stay heads down, focused on the long term, and obsessed over customers.

长远的眼光能放大我们现有的能力，让我们去尝试那些原本根本不敢想的事。

Long term thinking levers our existing abilities and lets us do new things we couldn't otherwise contemplate.

它支持创新过程中必要的试错与迭代，让我们敢于探索未知领域。

It supports the failure in iteration required for invention, and it frees us to pioneer in unexplored spaces.

如果你追求即时满足，或者那种虚无缥缈的快感，大概率会发现前面已经人满为患。

Seek instant gratification or the elusive promise of it, and chances are you will find a crowd there ahead of you.

长期主义，这简直太棒了。

Long term or this is excellent.

长期视角与以客户为中心的理念相辅相成。

Long term orientation interacts well with customer obsession.

只要我们能识别出客户的真实需求，并进一步确信这个需求既重要又持久，我们的方法就允许我们耐心投入多年时间，去真正交付解决方案。

If we can identify a customer need, and if we can further develop conviction that the need is meaningful and durable, our approach permits us to work patiently for multiple years to avoid, or excuse me, multiple years to deliver a solution.

从客户需求倒推，和那种依赖现有技能去推动业务机会的思路正好相反。

Working backward from customer needs can be contrasted with a skills forward approach, where existing skills and competencies are used to drive business opportunities.

那我先停在这里。

So I'm gonna pause right there.

为什么笔记里说，如果你从客户的需求倒推，这实际上会迫使你……

Why is the note saying, hey, if you work backwards from the customer's needs, this is actually gonna force you.

长期来看，这会让你成为更出色的经营者。

It will make you a more skilled business operator over time.

因为他会说，如果我们从后往前推，那就得先考虑客户最需要什么。

Because he's like, well, if we have to work back, we start with what's best for the customer.

我们可能暂时还没有能力做出这个产品。

We might not have those skills to build the thing.

这根本不重要。

That's irrelevant.

我们会去学习掌握这些技能。

We will go out and learn them.

他说，大多数企业用的都是他所谓的‘以技能为导向’的方法。

And he's saying most businesses, they use what he's calling a skills forward approach.

意思就是，我现在有什么本事，就用这些本事。

Meaning this is the skill set I have now.

然后看看能抓住哪些机会。

Let's see what opportunities I can pursue.

他说，不，咱们倒着想，兄弟。

He's like, no, let's ask backwards, dude.

用技能导向的方式，就是用现有的技能和能力去推动业务机会。

With a skills forward approach, where skills and competencies are used to drive business opportunities.

技能导向的做法是说，我们特别擅长做某件事。

The skills forward approach says, we're really good at x.

那我们还能拿这个擅长的事做点什么别的？

What else can we do with x?

如果你只靠这一种方式，公司就永远不会被迫去学习新技能。

If you use that exclusively, then the company employing it will never be driven to develop fresh skills.

久而久之，现有的技能就会过时。

Eventually, the existing skills will become outmoded.

从客户的需求倒推回来，往往要求我们掌握新能力，开拓新领域。

Working backward from customers' need customer needs often demands that we acquire new competencies and exercise new muscles.

别管一开始有多别扭、多不自在。

Never mind how uncomfortable and awkward feeling those first steps might be.

从客户的需求倒推回来——我现在说的是我自己，或者是在写信给自己。

Working backwards from the cut this is me talking now, or me writing to myself.

从客户的需求倒推，会让你逐渐成为一个更有能力的经营者。

Working backwards from the customer's needs will make you a more skilled business operator over time.

这同样非常棒。

This is also fantastic.

这又回到了节俭的重要性，始终避免浪费渗透到公司各个角落，保持低成本结构的重要性。

Goes back to the importance of frugality, the importance of always importance of not allowing waste to permeate throughout your company, the importance of having a low cost structure.

我们选择的客户体验路径，要求我们必须拥有高效的成本结构。

The customer experience path we've chosen requires us to have an efficient cost structure.

对股东来说，好消息是，我们在这一方面还有很多提升空间。

The good news for shareholders is that we see much opportunity for improvement in that regard.

所以，有个故事。

So there's a story.

我得打断一下自己的故事。

I'm gonna interrupt my own story.

另一本书里提到，杰夫这个人特别有意思，你跟他说他生意上出了问题，他反而特别兴奋。

Another book where it talked about Jeff's crazy because you would tell him something bad about his business, and he would get excited.

这就是原因。

And this is why.

因为他觉得，问题其实就是机会和流程优化的切入点。

Because he sees that problems are just opportunities and workflows.

所以他说，既然我们选择了这样的客户体验路径，就必须建立一个高效的成本结构。

So he's like, hey, we're if the customer experience path, we have to have an efficient cost structure.

对股东来说，好消息是我们在这方面还有很多提升空间，因为我们知道，成本还能再降。

The good news for share for share owners is that we see much opportunity for improvement in that regard, saying, hey, we know we can we can lower cost.

我们可以让成本结构更加高效。

We can have a more efficient cost structure.

无论看哪里，我们都能发现日本制造企业常说的‘浪费’。

Everywhere we look, we find what experienced Japanese manufacturers would call Muda or waste.

所以，我们到处都能看到浪费。

So everywhere we look, we find waste.

我觉得这特别让人振奋。

I find this incredibly energizing.

我把这看作是潜力。

I see it as potential.

多年来，我们在变动和固定生产率上持续提升，资本支出也变得更高效、更快速、更灵活。

Years and years of variable and fixed productivity gains and more efficient higher velocity and flexible capital expenditures.

他这里有个脚注，简直太棒了。

He's got a footnote here that's absolutely fantastic.

最近在配送中心，我们的一位卡赞专家问我：我支持保持配送中心干净，但你们为什么要打扫呢？

At a fulfillment center recently, one of our Kazan experts asked me, I'm in favor of a clean fulfillment center, but why are you cleaning?

为什么不直接从源头上杜绝脏乱呢？

Why don't you eliminate the source of dirt?

杰夫说，我当时感觉就像《空手道小子》里的主角。

And Jeff says, I felt like the karate kid.

这个词，如果你不知道的话，我也是刚查的。

And that term, in case you didn't know, I had to look it up myself.

这叫改善，我可能发音不太准，应该是‘改善’。

It's kaizen, most likely pronouncing it incorrectly, maybe kaizen.

这是个日语词，意思是持续改进、越来越好。

It is a Japanese term meaning change for the better or continuous approve improve.

我特别喜欢《从优秀到卓越》里的一句话，就是我们几周前在第278期节目里聊过的那本书，它和杰夫刚才说的完全契合。

One of my favorite sentences from Zero to One, the book you and I just talked about on episode two seventy eight a few weeks ago, is going to relate to exactly what Jeff is saying here.

这是2009年给股东的一封信。

This is a 2009 shareholder letter.

他说，2009年的财务成果，是十五年来不断优化客户体验的累积成果。

He says, the financial results for 2009 reflect the cumulative efforts of fifteen years of customer experience improvements.

杰夫这句话就说到这儿。

That's the end of Jeff's sentence.

接下来是彼得的话。

This is the beginning of Peter's.

如果你只盯着短期增长，就会忽略掉最重要的那个问题。

If you focus on near term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking.

十年后，这家企业还会存在吗？

Will this business still be around a decade from now?

再往后跳一两年，他提到亚马逊会成为一个创新的发源地。

Skipping ahead by a year or two, he's talking about the fact that Amazon, it will be a place of invention.

我们会打造一些前所未有的新业务，真正有突破性的企业。

We will build new businesses, innovative businesses that no one else has done before.

他把这叫做创新的力量。

He calls it the power of invention.

其实我就从这一整年的内容里挑了寥寥几句。

Really, I just I there's only a few sentences I pulled off from this entire year.

其中一段，他开始谈AWS，也就是亚马逊云服务，现在这已经是规模庞大的业务了，你想想，要是它独立出来，估值得有多高。

One of it, he talks about he starts talking about AWS, Amazon Web Services, which is now this gigantic, you know, who knows how much the business would be worth if it was actually outside of Amazon.

这业务价值极高。

It's very valuable.

我记得上一次股东信里，他也专门提到了AWS的增长。

I think in the last I think the last shareholder talks about like the growth of AWS specifically.

我记得它增长得特别快，但具体多快我有点忘了，现在每年的收入已经达到了五百亿美元左右，大概就是他写那封信时的数字。

I think it was like something I forgot the how fast it grew, but now it's up to like $50,000,000,000 a year or whatever it was when he wrote that letter.

这才是关键所在。

This is the main point.

亚马逊云服务的价值是显而易见的。

The value of Amazon Web Services is undeniable.

也就是说，从客户的角度来看，它的价值无可置疑。

Meaning, from the customer's perspective, the value is undeniable.

我会用我自己的方式来思考这个问题，毕竟我自己也懂，这其实是个值得问自己的好问题。

I think about this in my terms, so know enough myself, it's a good question to ask yourself.

我的产品所提供的价值，是不是也无可置疑？

Is the value my product provides undeniable?

接着，他引用了一句特别精彩的话。

And then he's just got a fantastic quote.

他在谈那些为顾客而创造的全新业务。

He's talking about all these other businesses that they're inventing on behalf of the customer.

我太喜欢这段了。

I love this.

最具革命性和变革性的发明，往往都是那些赋能他人、激发他们创造力去实现梦想的创新——他特意加了斜体强调‘他人’，也加了斜体强调‘创造力’。

The most radical and transformative of inventions are often those that empower others, and he italicized that, others to unleash their, italicized that too, creativity to produce their dreams.

我来读一遍，这次不打断自己。

I'm gonna read that without me interrupting.

最具革命性和变革性的发明，往往都是那些赋能他人、激发他们创造力去追求梦想的创新。

The most radical and transformative of inventions are often those that empower others to unleash their creativity to pursue their dreams.

接下来，他专门写了一封致股东的信，谈到了内在驱动力的重要性。

Moving ahead, he's got a entire Shareholder Letter dedicated to the importance of being internally driven.

这一部分简直太棒了。

Now, this section was fantastic.

我之前读的时候加了一些重点标注。

I added some highlights from the previous time that I read it.

不过我记不清了，刚才找的时候觉得这真让人惊讶。

What I don't remember though, when I looked for it, I put this is wild.

这让我想起查理·芒格说好市多的做法违背人性。

It reminds me of Charlie Munger on Costco being against human nature.

我猜是因为他们明明可以提价却选择不这么做，但我翻遍笔记也没找到相关记录。

My guess is the fact that they could improve or increase prices and they don't, but I couldn't find that anywhere in my notes.

我当时到底在引用什么，现在也记不太清了。

I'm not entirely sure what I was referencing there.

所以书中提到，亚马逊的动力来自于取悦客户的渴望，而不是压倒竞争对手的冲动。

So it says, our energy at Amazon comes from a desire to impress customers rather than the zeal to best our competitors.

以客户为中心的一个优势——或许有点微妙——是它能激发某种主动精神。

One advantage, perhaps a somewhat subtle one, of a customer driven focus is that it aids a certain type of proactivity.

当我们表现最佳时，从不等外界逼迫才行动。

When we're at our best, we don't wait for external pressures.

我们会主动提升服务，提前增加功能和福利，而不是等到不得不做。

We are internally driven to improve our services, adding benefits and features before we have to.

我们会提前降价、提升客户价值，而不是等到被迫为止。

We lower prices and increase value for customers before we have to.

我们在被迫之前就主动创新。

We invent before we have to.

这些投入源于对客户的关注，而不是对竞争的回应。

These investments are motivated by customer focus rather than by reaction to competition.

他举了一个这样的例子。

And so he gives an example of this.

他说，我们建立了一个自动系统，用来发现哪些客户体验没有达到我们的标准。

He says, We built an automated system that looked for occasions when we've provided a customer experience that is not up to our standards.

一旦发现，系统就会主动给客户退款。

And those systems then proactively refund customers.

最近有一位行业观察者收到了我们发来的自动邮件，内容是：我们注意到您在观看亚马逊视频点播的《卡萨布兰卡》时遇到了视频播放问题。

One industry observer recently received an automated email from us that said, We noticed that you experienced poor video playback while watching the following rental on Amazon Video On Demand.

对此我们深表歉意，并已为您退款2.99美元，期待再次为您服务。

Casablanca, we are sorry for the inconvenience and have issued you a refund for the following amount: $2.99 We hope to see you again soon.

他因为这突如其来的主动退款而感到惊讶，后来还专门写文章分享了这段经历。

Surprised by the proactive refund, he ended up writing about the experience.

亚马逊发现我观看视频时画质很差，就主动给我退了款。

Amazon noticed that I experienced poor video playback, and they decided to give me a refund because of that.

真没想到。

Wow.

这才是真正把客户放在第一位。

Talk about putting customers first.

这正是他的核心观点。

And this is his main point.

主动这么做成本更高，但能让人惊喜、开心，还能赢得信任。

Doing it proactively is more expensive for us, but it also surprises, delights, and earns trust.

几年后，在2014年致股东信的开头，他列出了自己希望长期持有的企业应具备的特质。

And a few years later, at the beginning of the 2014 shareholder letter, he gives the characteristics that he looks for in businesses that he wants to keep forever.

一个理想的企业至少要有四个特点：客户非常喜欢它。

A dreamy business offering has at least four characteristics: Customers love it.

它有能力发展成非常庞大的规模。

It can grow to a very large size.

它的资本回报率很高。

It has strong returns on capital.

而且能经得起时间考验，几十年都稳得住。

And it's durable in time with the potential to endure for decades.

一旦找到这样的机会，就赶紧定下来。

When you find one of these, get married.

我们现在和三个这样的长期伙伴幸福地绑在了一起：Marketplace、Prime 和 AWS。

We are now happily wed to what I believe are three such life partners, Marketplace, Prime, and AWS.

这又多了三个大赢家。

And so those are just three more big winners.

但要做到这些，你得不断试错，因为真正的大赢家能撑得起无数次失败的尝试。

But a lot of that is like you have to do a lot of experimentation, and the reason you need to do that is because the big winners pay for many experiments.

就算这三大业务是靠一百次失败才换来的，那又有什么关系。

It does not matter if it took them a 100 failed experiments to get these three giant businesses.

所以他反复强调，在商业世界里，你必须敢于冒险。

So he talks a lot about why you have to be bold in the world of business.

我就在这段上面写了，这一点特别重要，一定要记住。

And I just wrote right above this section, this is so important to remember.

超额回报往往来自挑战主流看法。

Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom.

但主流看法通常是对的。

And conventional wisdom is usually right.

如果一件事有10%的概率带来100倍的回报，那你每次都应该赌。

Given a 10% chance of a 100x payoff, you should take that bet every time.

但你十次里头有九次还是会错。

But you're still going to be wrong nine times out of 10.

我们都明白，要是总想一击制胜，肯定会经常三振出局。

We all know that if you swing for the fences, you're going to strike out a lot.

但同时，你也可能打出几记本垒打。

But you're also going to hit some home runs.

不过，棒球和商业的区别在于，棒球的结果分布是有限的。

The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution.

只要你挥棒，不管打得有多好，最多也只能得四分。

When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most returns you can get is four.

在商业里，偶尔你上场一击，就能拿下一千分。

In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs.

这种回报的长尾分布，正说明了大胆行动有多重要。

This long tail distribution of returns is why it's important to be bold.

大赢家的收益足以抵消无数次尝试的代价。

Big winners pay for so many experiments.

于是他在某一年的股东信里，专门用了一整封信来阐述抵御‘第二天’这个理念。

So then he dedicates one of his shareholder letters, one year of shareholder letters, this idea of fending off day two.

他问：杰夫，‘第二天’会是什么样子？

And so he says, Jeff, what does day two look like?

这个问题是我最近一次全员会议时收到的。

That's the question I got at our most recent all hands meeting.

几十年来，我一直提醒大家：我们还处在第一天。

I've been reminding people that it's day one for a couple of decades.