#286 沃伦·巴菲特与查理·芒格

即使在你认为他们本应拥有很大影响力和控制权的情况下，也是如此。

And this is even in situations where you figure, hey, they they should have a lot of influence and control here.

他说，查理和我曾担任过一些公司的董事会成员，那时我们是最大的股东之一。

And he says, listen, Charlie and I have been on boards of companies in which we were among the largest shareholders.

即便如此，我们也很少能改变他们的行为。

And even then, we had very little luck changing their behavior.

因此，我们认为，如果你购买了某家公司的股票，最好别指望能改变其行动方向。

So we think that if you buy stock in a company, you better not count on being able to change the course of action.

接着，他们又回到理解人类行为的重要性，并略微谈及为何如此多的创始人和投资者都如此。

And then they go back into the importance of understanding human behavior, and then they touch a little bit on why so many founders and investors have it.

比如，他们热爱历史。

Like, they love history.

他们喜欢研究历史。

They like studying history.

他们发现这对自己的职业生涯非常有帮助。

They find it very useful for their careers.

巴菲特说，如果你要经营企业，真的应该理解人性。

Buffett says, you really should understand human behavior if you're gonna run a business.

芒格说，一旦你掌握了这些理念，就必须不断实践。

Munger says, once you have the ideas, of course, you must continuously practice.

说得对。

Amen.

这正是你我反复讨论的话题。

Something you and I talk about over and over again.

一旦你掌握了这些理念，就必须不断运用它们。

Once you have the ideas, of course, you must continuously practice their use.

如果你不实践，就无法表现良好。

If you don't practice, you can't perform well.

一个明智的人在学习重要技能时，不会停止，直到他真正精通为止。

A wise man engaged in learning some important skill will not stop until he is really fluent in it.

所以，我们再多谈谈这个观点：如果你要经营企业，理解人性真的非常重要。

So more on this idea of it's really important if you're going run a business to understand human nature.

再次强调，这些都是这些观点。

Again, this is all these ideas.

这些观点并不在同一页面上。

These are not on the same page.

所以你知道它们对他们很重要，因为人们重视的东西，他们会反复提及。

So this is how you know it's important to them because what what's important to people, they will repeat.

因此，这其实是一个关于模仿的故事，我读到这段时给自己留下的批注。

And so this is really, it's a it's a story about imitation is the note that I left myself when I read this.

但不是的。

But no.

查理即将告诉我们的是一个关于人性的故事。

What Charlie's about to tell us, he's telling us a story about human nature.

这非常有趣。

That's very fascinating.

如果你想想他们在金融行业所拥有的宏观视角，你知道，这个行业充满了恐慌、泡沫、繁荣与衰退。

And if you think about, like, their bird's eye view that they've had in the, like, the finance industry, which, you know, it's been full of panics and bubbles and booms and busts.

对吧？

Right?

这简直太棒了。

This is just absolutely fantastic.

所以查理·芒格说，我最喜欢的一个故事是关于德克萨斯州的一个小男孩。

So Charlie Munger says, one of my favorite stories is about the little boy in Texas.

老师问全班：如果围栏里有九只羊，有一只跳出去了，还剩几只？

The teacher asked the class, if there are nine sheep in the pen and one jumps out, how many are left?

所有人都答对了，只有这个小男孩说：一只都不剩了。

And everybody got the answer right except this little boy who said, none of them are left.

老师说：你不懂算术。

And the teacher said, you don't understand arithmetic.

他说：不，老师。

And he said, no, teacher.

你不懂羊。

You don't understand sheep.

巴菲特接着补充说，总是让我惊讶的是，高智商的人会盲目地模仿。

And Buffett adds on to the story by saying, it always amazes me how high IQ people mindlessly imitate.

然后巴菲特用他称之为‘三个I’的概念来描述这种现象。

And then Buffett describes this phenomenon by this idea he calls the three I's.

他说，你会看到我所说的自然演进过程，即‘三个I’。

And so he says, you get what I call the natural progression, the three I's.

创新者、模仿者，和傻瓜。

The innovators, the imitators, and the idiots.

所以跳过一段，让我们回到他们反复强调的这个观点。

So skipping ahead, let's go back to this idea that they repeat over and over again.

花大量时间思考、阅读、形成自己的见解，并屏蔽外界的干扰。

Spend a lot of time thinking, reading, formulating your own thoughts, and mute the world.

巴菲特说，我们不读别人的观点。

And so Buffett says, we do not read other people's opinions.

我们想要自己思考。

We want to think.

我们想要获取事实，然后独立思考。

We wanna get the facts and then think.

这真是一个令人震撼的领悟，因为你永远无法预知，当你在阅读时，某个时刻会突然豁然开朗，或者与你之前脑海中某个想法产生共鸣，而你当时可能并没有完全意识到它有多重要。

This was such a, like, a mind blowing realization because you never know when, like, when you're reading something, when it just it's gonna suddenly click or, like, kinda interact with maybe an idea that was previous in your mind or you didn't weren't necessarily like completely understood how important it was.

当我阅读巴菲特的股东信时，当然，那是很多年前的事了。

When I was reading Buffett shareholder letters, and then obviously this is like years ago.

所以这大概是2019年左右吧。

So this is probably like in 2019 maybe.

在听查理·芒格讲话时，他们不断提到一个叫亨利·辛格尔顿的人。

And listening to Charlie Munger speak, they kept bringing up this guy named Henry Singleton.

我当时就想：这到底怎么回事？

And I was like, what the heck is going on here?

在我看来，巴菲特和芒格研究过的人，无论是在世的还是已故的，他们研究过的不同企业、创始人、管理者和首席执行官，可能比任何人都要多。

You know, in my opinion, Buffett and Munger have studied the people living and maybe people who've ever lived, they've probably studied more different businesses and more company founders and managers and CEOs than almost anybody else.

对吧？

Right?

他们从巴菲特还是个孩子时就开始了，几乎已经持续了一百年。

They've been at it since even Buffett's case since he was a little kid, and he's been doing almost for a hundred years.

对吧？

Right?

但他们却一直提到亨利·西蒙森。

And yet they kept bringing up Henry Singleton.

亨利·西蒙森，他们说，查理·芒格曾表示，亨利·西蒙森是你见过的最聪明的人。

Henry Singleton, they're like, hey, this guy was Charlie Munger says Henry Singleton's the smartest person you ever met.

芒格说，他在商业上的回报简直荒谬得离谱。

Munger said that his returns in business were utterly ridiculous.

巴菲特说，商学院不研究这个人，简直是一种罪过。

Buffett said it's literally a crime that business schools don't study this guy.

而研究他之所以困难，是因为你真的必须这么做。

And the reason it's hard to study him is you actually have to.

因为关于他的资料非常少。

Like, there's not a lot written about him.

我做过两期关于他的节目。

I've done two episodes on him.

但在第十期节目中，有一本书叫《遥远的力量》，是西蒙森的得力助手写的。

But episode one ten, there's this book called Distant Force, which is written by Singleton's, like, right hand guy.

这本书详细记录了他们共同打造的Teledyne公司的发展历程。

And it's really the history of the company Teledyne that they built together.

但最让我感到惊异的是，我不知道为什么，

But what was so remarkable and just made I don't know why.

当我开始了解西蒙森时，他如何安排自己的时间这一点突然让我豁然开朗。

It just clicked when I started reading about Singleton is, how he spent his time.

但这一切的重点是，那本书里有一段话深深打动了我：你必须付出必要的努力，才能真正信任自己的判断，否则这一切都无从谈起。

But the point of all this is, like, there's a description in that book that really resonated with me that you have to do the work necessary to be able to trust your own judgment or none of this is gonna work.

所以我要读一段来自《遥远的力量》的引文。

And so I'm gonna read a quote from Disenforced.

这是第十期节目。

This is episode one ten.

我即将重新阅读这段内容，并收集所有其他相关信息。

I'm about to reread this and collect all the other information.

事实上，许多听众给我发来了关于辛格尔顿的非常有价值的信息，比如他们在公共图书馆找到的旧新闻报道等。

In fact, bunch of listeners actually sent me a really valuable information about Singleton, like old press articles and stuff they found in like public libraries and stuff.

但我想要读这段，因为我真的认为这正是巴菲特在这里表达的意思。

But I wanna read this because I really think this is exactly what Buffett is saying here.

在继续之前，让我先重新读一遍巴菲特的话。

Let me reread Buffett before I get there.

对吧？

Right?

他说：听着，我们不读别人的看法。

He's like, listen, we don't read other people's opinions.

我们想要独立思考。

We wanna think.

我们想要获取事实，然后自己思考。

We wanna get the facts and then think.

在很多方面，辛格顿就是巴菲特之前的巴菲特。

In many ways, Singleton was Buffett before Buffett.

对吧？

Right?

所以书中提到，亨利经常谈论他经营公司的理念，以及他每天坐在办公室里、常常在苹果二型电脑上工作时想出的各种财务策略。

So it says, quite often, Henry simply talked about his philosophy of running a corporation and the various financial strategies that came that he came up with as he sat in his office each day, often working in his Apple two computer.

他是一位杰出的战略家，提出了许多富有创意的想法，这些想法有时与当时盛行的大公司管理方式背道而驰。

He was a brilliant strategist, and he came up with many creative ideas ideas that were sometimes contrary to the currently accepted methods of managing a large corporation that prevailed in those days.

让我震惊的一件事是，亨利·辛格顿与信息论的发明者克劳德·香农是朋友，香农是一位通才，是世界上罕见的全才之一，没错，就是克劳德·香农。

One of the things that blew my mind was the fact that Henry Singleton was friends with Claude Shannon, the inventor of information theory, a universal genius, one of the rare universal geniuses that the world has seen, right, in Claude Shannon.

而克劳德·香农实际上曾担任泰利丹公司的董事和顾问。

And Claude Shannon was actually on the board of Teledyne and an advisor.

所以当亨利外出、在通过收购构建他的企业集团时，他实际上需要能够随时求助。

So when when Henry would go out and when he was building his conglomerate trying to buy through acquisitions, he would actually have to be able to tap.

想象一下，你可以随时给克劳德·香农打电话，说：嘿。

Imagine being able to, like, call up Claude Shannon and be like, hey.

你对这项新技术有什么看法？

What do you think about this new technology?

这对我来说简直太疯狂了。

It's just crazy to me.

不管怎样，这是香农说的。

Anyways, this is what Shannon said.

你看看这个。

Check this out.

香农在谈论西尔万，观察他如何工作。

He all Shannon is talking about Singleton, observing Singleton, how he works.

他说，他总是努力找出最佳的策略。

He says, he always tries to work out the best moves.

也许他不喜欢多说话，因为下棋的时候，你不会告诉别人你的策略。

And maybe he doesn't like to talk too much because when you're playing a game, you don't tell anyone else what your strategy is.

那这个策略又是从哪里来的呢？

And where did the strategy come from?

巴菲特现在在我手中拿着的这本书里说，他的策略来自他坐在房间里思考。

The same place that Buffett now in this book that I'm holding in my hand is saying came from him sitting there in a room thinking.

西格蒙特显然博览群书，就像巴菲特一样。

Singleton was obviously extremely well read, just like Buffett as well.

让我再回到巴菲特的话题。

Let me go back to Buffett.

我要第三次重复这句话。

I'm gonna repeat this for the third time.

我们不读别人的观点。

We do not read other people's opinions.

我们想要自己思考。

We wanna think.

我们想要获取事实，然后独立思考。

We wanna get the facts and then think.

现在，我们已经深入书中的许多页，他们又回到了这个主题。

Now, we're many pages deep in the book, and they go back to this theme.

默认说不，保持日程空闲，以便真正地思考。

Default to no, keep an open calendar so you can actually think.

成功人士与非常成功人士的区别在于，非常成功的人几乎对所有事情都说不。

The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say no to almost everything.

芒格就是巴菲特。

Munger that was Buffett.

芒格说，沃伦和我都有异常空闲的日程，我们非常不愿意再添加新的承诺。

Munger says, both Warren and I have amazingly open calendar, and we're very reluctant to put new commitments in there.

我喜欢灵活性，这对我很有效。

I like flexibility and has worked for me.

因此，巴菲特对此非常重视，就在他们讨论这一点时，我认为他已经拥有了大约80家不同的企业。

And so Buffett takes this so seriously that, you know, at this, at the point they're talking about this, I think he owned like 80 different businesses.

因此，每隔几年，他都会给旗下企业的经理们写一封信。

And so he would actually, every few like years, he would write the managers of his business a a letter.

这一切都围绕着巴菲特无情地守护自己的时间。

And it all it's all about the fact that Buffett ruthlessly guards his time.

这封信的内容是这样的。

This is what the letter says.

请拒绝——这是巴菲特写的。

Please turn down this is Buffett writing.

对吧？

Right?

这封信是发给伯克希尔所有子公司的首席执行官和经理们的。

This is to all of the the CEOs and the managers of all the subsidiaries in Berkshire.

请拒绝所有邀请我演讲、捐款等的请求。

Please turn down all the proposals for me to speak, make contributions, etcetera.

有时，这些要求你作为中间人的请求会附带一句：‘问问也没坏处。’

Sometimes these requests for you for you to act as an intermediary will be accompanied by, oh, it can't hurt to ask.

如果你直接拒绝，对我们双方都会更轻松，他指的就是立刻说不。

It will be easier for both of us if you just say no, and he means no right away.

作为额外的请求，请不要建议他们改写信或给我打电话。

As an added favor, don't suggest that they instead write or call me.

把大约80家企业乘以那种周期性的想法——‘我觉得他对这个会感兴趣’，你就能明白为什么干脆果断地拒绝更好。

Multiply 80 or so businesses by the periodic, oh, I think he'll be interested in this one, and you can understand why it's better to just say no firmly and immediately.

接着他们谈到了创业史中的一个核心主题：节俭的重要性，保护你拥有的资源，无论拥有多少财富都不要挥霍。

And then they touch on a main theme in the history of entrepreneurship, the importance of frugality, guarding the resources that you have, not spending foolishly no matter how much money you have.

查理和我一直非常推崇量入为出，如果你能做到这一点，你就有望在未来获得更多的收入。

Charlie and I have always been big fans of living within your income, and if you do that, you'll hope you'll have a whole lot more income later on.

芒格说，如果你想致富，你就必须理解你的收入。

If you Munger says, if you wanna get rich, you've got to understand your understand your income.

你必须明智地投资那些你没有花掉的钱。

You've got to intelligently invest the money that you haven't spend spent.

这样，钱就能为你更长久地工作。

The money will work for you for a longer period of time.

你必须储蓄。

You have to save.

所以我其实发现，我打算重读他的传记，而且我也另外买了一本关于他的书。

And so I actually found, I'm gonna reread his biography, and if I I got another book on him too.

我其实是通过巴菲特发现这个人的，巴菲特和芒格经常从历史上谈起的另一位企业家。

I actually found this guy because Buffett it's another entrepreneur that Buffett and Munger talk about from history.

他叫詹姆斯·J·希尔。

It's this guy named James J Hill.

我早在第96期节目里就介绍过他。

And I covered him all the way back in episode number 96.

他可能是历史上最伟大的铁路建设者之一。

And he's one of the, maybe the greatest railroad builder in history.

他有一句话，经常在工作中重复提及。

And there's something that he's he talks about and he would repeat in his work.

你知道，这大概是19世纪，让我想想，应该是19世纪中后期，他说了这句话。

You know, this is eighteen hundreds, probably, let's see, mid to late eighteen hundreds when he says this.

他说，如果你想知道自己一生是注定成功还是失败，其实很容易就能弄清楚。

And he said, if you wanna know whether you are destined to be a success or failure in life, you can easily find out.

这个测试很简单，而且绝对可靠。

The test is simple and it's infallible.

你能存下钱吗？

Are you able to save money?

如果不能，就退出吧。

If not, drop out.

你会失败的。

You will lose.

你可能不这么认为，但只要你活着，就一定会失败。

You may think not, but you will lose as sure as you live.

成功的种子并不在你身上。

The seed of success is not in you.

于是他们花了一些时间讨论债务的危险，债务是一种让真正富有的人破产的简便而常见的方式。

So then they spend some time talking about the dangers of debt, that debt is a is an easy way, a common way for really rich people to go broke.

芒格说，聪明人破产有三种方式：酒精、女人和杠杆。

Munger says, smart men go broke in three ways, liquor, ladies, and leverage.

巴菲特说，每当一个聪明而富有的人破产时，通常都是因为杠杆。

Buffett says whenever a bright and rich person goes broke, it's usually because of leverage.

任何一系列正面的数字，无论多么令人印象深刻，一旦乘以一个零就会化为乌有。

Any series of positive numbers, however impressive the numbers may be, evaporates when multiplied by a single zero.

历史告诉我们，杠杆往往会产生零结果，即使是由非常聪明的人使用也是如此。

History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeros, even when it's employed by very smart people.

你会注意到的一件事是，这仍然是巴菲特在说。

One of the things you will find this is still Buffet talking.

你会注意到的一件事，这一点很有趣但人们往往忽视：对于大多数企业和个人而言，生活往往会在你的最薄弱环节将你击垮。

One of the things you will find, which is interesting and people don't think of enough, with most businesses and with most individuals, life tends to snap you at your weakest link.

你可能会遇到这样的人，他们的整体表现非常出色，但他们有一个弱点，也许是酗酒，也许是容易被轻松获利所诱惑。

You can have somebody whose aggregate performance is terrific, but if they have a weakness, maybe it's with alcohol, maybe it's susceptibility to taking a little easy money.

真正让你崩溃的，正是这个薄弱环节。

It's the weak link that snaps you.

在金融市场中，薄弱环节常常就是借来的钱。

And frequently in the financial markets, the weak link is borrowed money.

因此，这个观点的另一面是，他们一再告诉你：要正视债务，对杠杆保持极度谨慎。

And so the other side of the coin of this idea is like, they they tell you over and over again, we gotta be real with debt, be real careful with leverage.

他们会强调，你的企业应该拥有成山成山的现金。

They will preach the fact that you should try your business should have mountains and mountains of cash.

现金就像氧气一样。

Cash is a lot like oxygen.

绝大多数时候你察觉不到它的存在，但一旦缺失，你就只会注意到它。

You don't notice it 99% of the time, but when it's absent, it's the only thing that you notice.

我们拥有最大的财务灵活性，以应对各种风险和机遇。

We have maximum financial flexibility to face both hazards and opportunities.

巴菲特说，我们把大部分现金持有在美国国债上，避免其他仅多赚几个基点的短期证券。

Buffett says, We keep our cash largely in US Treasury bills and avoid other short term securities yielding a few more basis points.

有人告诉我，这不属于我的领域，所以我也不确定，但有人说，他们现在手上有1000亿美元的现金，以无风险利率赚取4%的收益。

Somebody sent me, and this is not my world, so I don't know, but somebody said that they, right now, they have a 100,000,000,000 in cash earning 4% risk free.

我们认同投资作家雷·德沃的观察：更多资金是在追求收益的过程中损失的，而不是在枪口下。

We agree with investment writer Ray DeVoe's observation, more money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun.

他们为什么这么说？

And why do they say that?

因为现金确保了你的生存，这是我们反复讨论的话题。

Because cash ensures you're for survival, something you and I talk about over and over again.

你必须坚持足够长的时间，才能等到好运降临。

You have to stay in the game long enough to get lucky.

巴菲特说，明智的做法是安排好你的事务，以便无论别人多么愚蠢，你第二天依然能继续参与游戏。

Buffett says, It pays to conduct your affairs so that no matter how foolish other people get, you're still around to play the game the next day.

芒格说，我不是受害者。

Munger says, I am not a victim.

我是一个幸存者。

I am a survivor.

然后他们开始就人际关系给出建议。

And then they start giving advice on just interpersonal relationships.

你这一生会遇到各种人，包括一些糟糕的人。

You're going to like people you're gonna deal with bad people throughout your life.

这是不可避免的。

That's inevitable.

但你无法控制他们的行为，除了显然可以避开他们，你可以控制自己的反应。

But how you can't control what they do, other than you can avoid them, obviously, but you can control your reactions.

于是，巴菲特在中间提到：这是我一生中听到过的最好的建议之一。

And so then Buffett, in the middle of this, he talks about, hey, this is some of the best advice I ever got in my life.

他说：四十年前，汤姆·墨菲——前Cap Cities和ABC的首席执行官——给了我一生中最好的建议之一。

And so he says, forty years ago, Tom Murphy, who was the former CEO of Cap Cities and ABC, gave me one of the best pieces of advice I've ever received.

他说：沃伦，你总可以告诉某人明天再滚蛋。

He said, Warren, you can always tell someone to go to hell tomorrow.

你并没有错过机会。

You haven't missed the opportunity.

只是先搁置一天。

Just forget about it for a day.

如果你明天还是这么想，那时你再告诉他们，但不要在愤怒的瞬间口不择言。

If you feel the same way tomorrow, then you could tell them, but don't spout off in a moment of anger.

而这是我个人从查理·芒格那里学到的关于人性最重要的基本洞察之一。

And then this is one of the most important fundamental insights into human nature that I've learned personally from Charlie Munger.

他说：听着，每个人都认为世界是由贪婪驱动的。

And he's like, listen, everybody thinks that the world is driven by greed.

但世界并不是由贪婪驱动的。

But it's the world is not driven by greed.

而是由嫉妒驱动的。

It's driven by envy.

如果你能从生活中消除嫉妒，你的生活会好很多。

And your life will be a lot better if you can just eliminate envy from your life.

所以查理说，我听过沃伦说过好几次，我想他是从沃伦那里学到的。

And so Charlie says, I've heard Warren say half a and I I guess he learned this from Warren.

我听过沃伦说过好几次，驱动世界的不是贪婪，而是嫉妒。

I've learned I've heard Warren say half a dozen times, it's not greed that drives the world, but envy.

巴菲特说，我们的经验是，嫉妒才是真正驱动人们的东西。

Buffett says, our experience is that envy is what really drives people.

你给某人发200万美元的奖金，他们可能会很高兴，但直到他们看到下一个人拿了210万美元，他们就变得痛苦了。

You can give someone a $2,000,000 bonus and they're happy until they see the next guy got $2,100,000 and then they're miserable.

芒格解释了为什么这种想法如此荒谬。

And Munger illustrates why this is so ridiculous.

如果你已经生活富足，而别人比你更快地变富，那又怎样呢？

If you're comfortably rich and someone else is getting richer faster than you, so what?

总有人会比你更快地变富。

Someone will always be getting richer faster than you.

这根本不是什么悲剧。

This is not a tragedy.

在你所能想到的任何人类活动中，总有人会做得比你更好。

Someone else is always going to be doing better at any human activity you can name.

让我回到这个我全心相信的观点：时间是最好的过滤器。

Let me go back to this idea, something that I believe with my whole heart that time is the best filter.

巴菲特说，詹尼·安吉内利可能是汽车公司菲亚特的前董事长。

Buffett says Gianni Anginelli, maybe, is the former chairman of the car company Fiat.

所以他说，詹尼曾经告诉我，当你变老时，你会拥有你应得的声誉。

So it says Gianni once told me one time told me, when you get older, you'll have the reputation that you deserve.

你可以在某些时候欺骗某些人，但不可能永远骗下去。

You can fool some people some of the time, but not forever.

我相信公司也是如此。

I believe the same is true for companies.

现在我读到这句话时，这大概是第三或第四次了吧？

And now when I read that, that's probably like, what, the third or fourth time?

我认为这是我第四次读到这个特别的亮点时，突然有了新的感悟：他说，随着时间推移，你无法欺骗人们。

I think the fourth time I've read that particular highlight, something else just jumped at me, where he says, hey, you know, with time, you can't fool people.

你可以在某些时候欺骗某些人，但不可能永远骗下去。

You can fool people some of the time, but not forever.

随着时间推移，你将拥有应得的个人声誉，你的公司也会拥有应得的声誉。

Over time, you're gonna have a the the personal reputation that you deserve, and your company will have the reputation you deserve.

巴菲特在他的书中提到一个非常精彩的观点，他描述了什么是真正的品牌。

Buffett says something in his book that's that's fantastic, where he describes what an actual brand is.

他说，品牌是一种承诺。

And he says, a brand is a promise.

所以我不确定为什么，但刚才我重读这一部分时，这个想法突然跳入了我的脑海。

So I'm not sure why, but when I reread that section just now, that's the the idea that jumped that popped in my mind.

于是查理进一步补充说，要为自己和你的企业建立声誉，最好的方法是反向思考。

And so then Charlie adds to this, the best way to get a reputation for yourself and your business is to actually work backwards.

他要引用索尔·普莱斯的话。

He is going to quote Sole Price.

索尔·普莱斯，巴菲特和芒格都是索尔·普莱斯的粉丝。

So Sole Price, Buffett and Munger are both fans of Sole Price.

我做过一期关于他的节目。

I did an episode on him.

那是第107期。

It's episode 107.

我会说，索尔·普莱斯是有史以来最具影响力的零售商。

My I would make the argument that Sole Price is the most influential retailer to ever live.

山姆·沃尔顿、Trader Joe、吉姆·辛纳加、家得宝的伯尼·马库斯、杰夫·贝佐斯。

Sam Walton, Trader Joe, Jim Synagogue, Bernie Marcus from Home Depot, Jeff Bezos.

他们都在自己的业务中运用了索尔·普莱斯的理念，或是其变体。

They all used ideas in their business, variations of Sole Price's ideas in their business.

所以芒格说，你应该先决定不想从事哪种生意。

And so we have Munger talking about like, okay, well, you should decide what kind of business that you do not want.

对吧？

Right?

索尔·普莱斯曾说，商业上的成功来自于明确哪些生意你完全可以不碰。

So it says Sole Price used to say success in business came from deciding which business you could intelligently do without.

他列了一份自己不想做的生意清单。

He had a list of businesses that he did not want.

他不想做那些开空头支票的人的生意。

He didn't want business from people who wrote bad checks.

他也不想做那些占着停车位却不怎么买东西的人的生意。

He didn't want business of people who clogged up his parking lot without buying very much.

他精心设计了一套系统。

He carefully invented a system.

他提出了这个想法，大家都知道好市多吧？

He's the one that came up with the the idea, like, everybody knows Costco?

好市多的这个理念就是索尔·普赖斯的想法。

That Costco idea is Sol Price's idea.

这个理念实际上是被吉姆·塞内加尔实现的，而吉姆是索尔·普赖斯的门生。

It was just actually brought to life by Jim Senegal, which is Sol Price's mentee.

吉姆年轻时确实为索尔·普赖斯工作过。

Jim, when he was really young, actually worked for Sol Price.

他非常钦佩索尔。

He greatly admired him.

事实上，我为第107期节目读过的那本索尔·普赖斯的传记，是由吉姆·西纳agogue撰写的序言或前言。

In fact, the autobiography excuse me, the biography of Soul Price that I read for one episode one zero seven, Jim Synagogue wrote the the forward or the introduction of that book.

他说，当人们采访他时，总会说：‘你认识索尔长达五十年，直到他去世，你一定从他身上学到了很多。’

And he says, like, when people would interview him, it's like, oh, you you knew Soul for fifty years before he died.

你一定从他身上学到了很多。

You must have learned a lot from him.

他就像说，不。

He's like, no.

不。

No.

我没学到多少东西。

I didn't learn a lot.

我学到了一切。

I learned everything.

从他那里学到了一切。

Everything from him.

这就是查理在谈论的内容。

So that's what Charlie's talking about.

他就像说，嗯，他只是设计了一种商业模式。

He's like, well, he just designed a business.

你知道，有多少商家会让你付会员费才能购物？

You know, how many businesses do you have to pay a membership fee to shop at?

我知道这极其罕见。

Like, I know it's that's extremely rare.

但他为什么这么特别呢？

But why is he or unusual.

他为什么要这么做？

Why is he doing that?

因为他正在设计自己的生意，通过避开自己不想要的东西来获得自己想要的。

Because he's designing a he's he's getting to the business he he wants by avoiding things he does not want.

而这个会员费，作为进入门槛，淘汰了查理在这里提到的很多问题。

And that membership fee, that barrier to entry eliminates a lot of things that Charlie's talking about here.

他不想要那些停车却不怎么买东西的人带来的生意。

He didn't want business business of people who clogged up his parking lot without buying very much.

他精心设计了一套系统，把这些人挡在门外，通过决定哪些东西自己少了反而更好，并主动避开它们，从而取得了成功。

He carefully invented a system where he kept those people out and succeeded by deciding what he would be better off without and avoiding it.

这是一种非常好的思维方式，但并不常见。

This is a very good way to think, and it is not common.

然后，巴菲特开始谈论一个他反复强调的观点。

And so then Buffett goes into something that he repeats over and over again.

事实上，我收到过的最好的礼物之一是父亲节时我妻子送我的一个杯子，上面写着‘沃伦·巴菲特的智慧’。

In fact, one of the best gifts I've ever gotten is for Father's Day, my wife got me this mug, and it says like the wisdom of Warren Buffett.

上面只有巴菲特的脸，以及他所说的几句名言。

And all it is is Warren's face with a bunch of quotes that he said.

我每天都会多次用浓缩咖啡把这个杯子倒满，然后阅读这些话。

And all I do is like fill up this cup multiple times a day with with espresso and then read.

对吧？

Right?

我最喜欢的一点是，这些观点虽然在书里和播客里都有，但这个实物却让它们变得鲜活，每天都能提醒我。

And one of my favorite things is because it's like these ideas are in the book and they're in the podcast, and yet this like physical item brings that out and it's like serves as like a reminder every day.

这个咖啡杯上有一句他的话是：我做过的最好的事，就是选对了榜样。

And on one of the things that he says on this this coffee mug is the best thing I did was to choose the right heroes.

这正是他和芒格反复强调的一点。

This is something that him and Munger repeat over and over again.

我先快速读一下这一段，然后告诉你芒格也说过的话。

I'm gonna read this section real quick and then tell you something Munger also says.

拥有正确的榜样非常重要。

I think it's very important to have the right heroes.

仔细选择你的榜样，然后弄清楚你钦佩他们哪些方面。

Choose your heroes carefully and then figure out what it is about them that you admire.

接着，你就去思考如何做到同样的事情。

Then you figure out how to do the same thing.

这并不是不可能的。

It is not impossible.

我确实看过沃伦在股东会上说这段话的片段。

And then I've actually seen clips from Warren saying this at the shareholder meeting.

然后查理补充说，你也别把榜样的选择局限在活着的人身上。

And then Charlie adds, you also should not relegate your selection of heroes to the living.

那些伟大的已故之人，显然是这个播客的主要主题之一。

That the eminent dead, obviously a main theme of this podcast.

对吧？

Right?

已故的杰出人物提供了最优秀的榜样。

The eminent bet dead provide some of the best models around.

他们还给出了更多关于职业和工作的建议：你真的应该设法让自己处于一个能从事自己极度感兴趣的工作的位置。

And then they have some more advice for our career, for our work that you really should try to maneuver yourself, get yourself in a position where you can do work that you have an intense interest in.

如果你听过我关于保罗·格雷厄姆文章的三部分系列，第275、276和277期。

If you listen to my three part series of the about Paul Graham's essays two seventy five episode two seventy five, 76, and two seventy seven.

这也是他写作的核心主题。

This is the main theme of his writing as well.

你最应该做的大事是，每天都享受生活。

The big thing you wanna do is you wanna enjoy every day.

所以，你希望拥有一份你热爱的工作，并与你喜爱、钦佩且信任的人共事。

So you want to have a job that you love, and you wanna work with people that you like, admire, and trust.

芒格说：在我整个一生中，我从未擅长过任何我不非常感兴趣的事情。

Munger says, in my whole life, I have never been good at something I wasn't very interested in.

这根本行不通。

It just doesn't work.

没有任何东西能替代强烈的兴趣。

There is no substitute for strong interest.

他们还谈到了聪明人和成功人士常犯的一个错误：因为他们在某一领域取得了成功，就认为自己的知识可以迁移到其他领域。

They also talk about a very common mistake that smart people make, that successful people make is because they were successful in one domain that they connect, that knowledge actually transfers to other domains.

最好的例子是，我经常说，亨利·福特是我最钦佩的企业家之一——从职业角度，而不是个人角度。

The best example of this is like, I always say, you know, Henry Ford's one of the the his Henry Henry Ford's one of the entrepreneurs I most admire professionally, not personally.

我非常欣赏他的公司经营理念，但如果你读一读关于亨利·福特的资料，就会看到这个例子。

And I I really like his philosophy of company building, but you see this illustration if you read about Henry Ford.

他擅长打造福特汽车公司，但他却认为自己能掌控员工的道德观念。

Like, he was a master at building the Ford Motor Company, but then he he thought, like, he could control, like, the morals of his, like, his employees.

他还觉得，自己能想办法阻止第一次世界大战爆发。

He thought he could, like he he could figure out a way to stop World War one from happening.

他有很多这样的失败经历，总以为自己可以做到这些事情。

He had all these things where he failed spectacularly at, where he thought, okay.

嗯，我从自己的商业经验中获得了一些知识，认为它们能应用到这个领域，但事实并非如此。

Well, I I have some kind of knowledge I derive from my business, and it's applicable to this domain, and it definitely wasn't.

巴菲特说，认为因为我们赚了很多钱，就能在每个话题上给出更好的建议，这根本说不通。

Buffett says, for us to think that because we made a lot of money, we're gonna be better at giving advice on every subject, well, that just doesn't make sense.

这太荒谬了。

That's crazy.

我对那种在某一领域非常成功，就开始认为自己应该告诉全世界该如何行事的人非常怀疑。

I'm very suspect suspect of the person who is very good at one business who starts thinking they should tell the world how to behave on everything.

他们开始反复重复这个观点。

They start repeating this idea.

你真的应该努力去寻找、合作并只与一流的人交往。

You really should try to be seeking out and working with and associating only with first class people.

芒格说，我们的基本准则一直都是：我们不与混蛋打交道。

Munger says our basic rule has has always been that we do not deal with assholes.

我曾拒绝过一些原本不错的商业交易，只是因为我讨厌必须与之合作的那些人。

I have turned down business deals that were otherwise decent deals because I didn't like the people that I'd have to work with.

你必须避开那些完全是毒瘤的人，这种人很多。

You have to you want to avoid other people who are total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.

你应该与一流的人交往，然后他们会回归到最重要的资产。

You want to associate with first class people, then they go back into the more most important asset.

经营企业最重要的资产之一是热情。

One of the most important assets in running a business is passion.

这非常有趣。

That's very interesting.

假设书中的虚构人物向你提出一个假设性问题。

Let's say that you wanna they're asked hypothetical question by a fictitious character in this book.

所以这个问题是：假设我想雇一个人。

So that question says, let's say I wanna hire somebody.

有哪些重要的事情需要考虑？

What is important to think about?

巴菲特说，你要关注一些合乎逻辑的因素，比如热情、对经营业务的兴趣，以及诚实。

Buffett says, you look for the logical things, passion, an interest in running the business, honestly, Honesty.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

他们是热爱这份事业，还是热爱金钱？

Do they love the business or do they love the money?

这是第一道筛选标准。

This is the first filter.

他们是热爱这份事业，还是热爱金钱？

Do they love the business or do they love the money?

这是第一道筛选标准。

This is the first filter.

我是说真正的热情。

I mean real passion.

如果性格是管理金钱时最重要的个人资产，那么在商业中，热情才是。

If temperament is the most important personal asset in managing money, In business, it's passion.

这也解释了为什么杰夫·贝佐斯说，传教士才能做出最好的产品。

It's also why Jeff Bezos says that missionaries make the best products.

传教士，而非雇佣兵。

Missionaries, not mercenaries.

他说雇佣兵只是为了钱而参与其中。

He says mercenaries are in it just for the money.

传教士真正关心企业正在做什么。

Missionaries actually care about what the business is doing.

这家企业为世界提供了什么服务？

What service is that business giving to the world?

你希望招聘那些与你完全志同道合的人，像你一样看待它，把它当作一项使命。

You want to try to hire people that are complete in alignment with you, and look at it like you do, like it's a mission.

他们还花大量时间谈论公司文化。

They also spend a lot of time talking about company culture.

你必须非常有意识地构建企业的文化，一旦文化形成，就几乎不可能改变。

The fact that you have to be very intentional, how you build the culture at your business, that once the culture is in place, it is nearly impossible.

你还不如干脆另起炉灶，而不是试图改变文化。

You're better off just starting a different company than trying to change the culture.

所以它说，我们努力为他们——也就是他们企业的经理和首席执行官们——营造一个环境，就像我们自己经营企业时希望得到的一样。

So it says, we try to provide an environment for them, meaning the managers and the CEOs of their businesses, which is exactly like we'd want if we were running a business.

我们希望自己经营企业，按照自己的方式来。

We would like to run our own business in our own way.

所以他们会说：嘿，我们尽量不去打扰他们。

So they're like, hey, we try not to mess with them.

对吧？

Right?

我们只和A级人才合作。

We're only working with a players.

A级人才不喜欢被微观管理。

A players don't like to be micromanaged.

如果我得事无巨细地管着他们，那我当初为什么要买下这家公司呢？

And if I had to micromanage them, why did I buy the business to begin with?

这毫无意义。

That doesn't make any sense.

我们绝不会让伯克希尔变成一个被委员会、预算汇报和多层管理充斥的庞然大物。

We will never allow Berkshire to become some monolith that is overrun with committees, budget presentations, and multiple layers of management.

相反，我们计划将公司运作成一系列独立管理的中型和大型企业，其中大多数决策都在运营层面做出。

Instead, we plan to operate as a collection of separately managed medium sized and large businesses, most of whose decision making occurs at operating level.

我们所拥有的所有企业都以极高的自主性进行运营。

All of the businesses that we own are run autonomously to an extraordinary degree.

在大多数情况下，我们长期拥有的重要企业的管理者从未去过奥马哈，甚至彼此从未见过面。

In most cases, the managers of important businesses we have owned for many years have not been to Omaha or even met each other.

我们适应他们的方法，而不是反过来。

We adapt to their methods rather than vice versa.

然后巴菲特谈到了他自己的策略。

So then Buffett talks about, like, his own strategy.

比如，巴菲特的‘秘诀’是什么？他的竞争优势是什么？

Like, what is Buffett's stink like, what is his competitive advantage?

对吧？

Right?

他并不是在试图成为什么，而是在做自己。

He is trying to be a like, not trying to be.

他就是这样做的。

He does this.

他是一个企业的收购者。

He's a buyer of businesses.

我认为，巴菲特的股东信是世界上见过的最杰出的内容营销案例。

I would argue that Buffett shareholder letters is the greatest single example of content marketing that the world has ever seen.

我在第227期节目中更详细地讨论过这个话题，那期节目是关于沃伦·巴菲特的随笔，其中提到他写了一封信，表达自己对收购某人企业的兴趣。

I talk about this more on episode two twenty seven, which is the essays of Warren Buffett, where it talks about, like, he he publishes a letter that he shows that he was interested in buying this person's business.

他实际上公开了自己写给企业主、希望收购其企业的那封信。

He he actually publishes the letter that he sent the buy the the person he the owner of the business.

我觉得这简直就是产品差异化的典范课程。

I feel it's like a masterclass in product differentiation.

因此，他谈到了自己是如何思考和定位自己的。

And so he touches on how he thinks about this and how he positions himself.

因此，他表示，我们长期明确的目标是成为企业的首选买家，尤其是那些由家庭创建和拥有的企业。

And so he says, our long avowed goal is to be the buyer of choice for businesses, particularly those built and owned by families.

实现这一目标的方法是配得上它。

The way to achieve this goal is to deserve it.

这意味着我们必须信守承诺，避免对收购的企业加杠杆，给予管理者异常的自主权，并在任何情况下都持有这些收购公司。

That means we must keep our promises, avoid leveraging up acquired businesses, grant unusual autonomy to our managers, and hold the purchase companies through thick and thin.

我们的实际行动与言辞一致。

Our record matches our rhetoric.

大多数与我们竞争的买家走的是另一条路。

Most buyers competing against us follow a different path.

对他们而言，并购只是一种商品。

For them, acquisitions are merchandise.

当我们遇到真正关心企业未来的所有者时，我们具有明显的优势。

We have a decided advantage when we encounter sellers who truly care about the future of their businesses.

因此，如果你真正关心你的企业及其未来，它对你来说就不是一件商品。

So if you truly care about your business and the future of it, it's not a merchandise to you.

这不仅仅是一次大规模的退出。

It's not just a big, you know, a big exit.

而是你真的在乎。

It's like you actually care.

如果你要出售你的企业，你会关心自己离开后企业会怎样。

Like, if you are gonna sell your business, like you care what happens what happens after you leave the business.

所以巴菲特会说，如果你是这样的人，当然，看看我们的业绩记录，伯克希尔一定是你的首选。

And so Buffett's like, well, if you're one of those people, of course, but Berkshire would be if you look at our track record, Berkshire would be your first choice.

所以相反的情况也往往成立。

So it says the reverse is apt to be true also.

当一位所有者拍卖他的企业，完全不关心后续发展时，你经常会发现这家企业为了出售而被刻意包装过。

When an owner auctions off his business, exhibiting a total lack of interest in what follows, you will frequently find that it has been dressed up for sale.

因此，巴菲特的意思是，如果一个人真的在乎，那他很可能打造了一家出色的企业。

And therefore, what Buffett's saying, it's not a high quality like, if somebody truly cares, most likely they truly they built a, like, a wonderful business.

有些人只是想创办、扩张然后出售。

Somebody's just in it to start, scale, and sell.

他们可能根本不在乎。

They probably don't give a shit.

因此，这类企业的长期前景非常值得怀疑，巴菲特对收购这样的企业毫无兴趣。

And so therefore, the long term prospects of a business like that are very suspect, and Buffett's not interested in buying those kind of businesses.

我在为第二十九集阅读安东尼·波登的传记时，有一句话特别打动我，当我读到下一句时，它立刻浮现出来。

There is a great line in the Anthony Bourdain biography that I read for episode two nineteen that jumps out at this next when I read this next sentence.

它说，人生不是为其他事情准备的绿 room。

It says, life isn't a green room for something else.

去追求吧。

Go for it.

巴菲特说，我们一生只活一次。

Buffett says, we're here on the earth only one time.

所以，你应该做自己享受并充满热情的事情。

So you ought to be doing something that you enjoy as you go along and you can be enthusiastic about.

然后我们有两句很棒的名言。

Then we have two great quotes.

第一个是巴菲特说的。

The first one is from Buffett.

当问题出现时，无论是人员问题还是业务运营问题，行动的时机就是现在。

When a problem exists, whether it's in personnel or in business operations, the time to act is now.

芒格说，聪明的人会在重大且不断扩大的问题初期就采取行动。

Munger says, Wise people step on big and growing troubles early.

书中多次提到芒格能够迅速做出决策的能力。

There's several times in the book that Munger talks about his ability to make decisions very rapidly.

我们之前听过巴菲特说，芒格拥有他所见过的最出色的三十秒思维能力。

We heard Buffett say earlier that Munger has the best thirty second mind that he's ever encountered.

因此，他的观点是，他们心中对感兴趣的业务已经有了明确的构想，清楚自己想要的是什么样的东西。

And so, and to his point, it's like they have an idea of the businesses that they're interested in, they're in their mind, the characteristics of the stuff they're interested in.

所以，即使他接到一个电话，十几秒内就会说：不行。

So even like, he'll get a phone call, and within like fifteen seconds, like, nope.

然后他就直接挂断电话。

And he'll just like hang up the phone.

他觉得，这毫无意义。

He's like, there's no point.

我知道我不想要这个生意。

I know I don't want this business.

我们在这个世界上时间有限，没必要浪费。

There's no point us like, we have limited time on this earth.

我不会花十五分钟只是礼貌地敷衍你，而明明我三十秒就能直接说不。

Like, I'm not gonna waste, sit here and just be polite for fifteen minutes just to give you a no that I can give you an a no in thirty seconds.

所以芒格说，不要花时间跟那些你明知想法愚蠢的人争论。

And so Munger says, spend no time arguing with people whose idea you know to be stupid.

我认为，你我反复讨论的这些故事中，一个主要主题是：未来的机遇对你来说是不可预测的。

I think a main theme that comes up again and again, these like stories that you and I go over is the fact that future opportunities are unpredictable to you.

你只能相信某些东西。

Like, just have to trust in something.

当然，要尽最大努力做好眼前的事。

Obviously, do as good job as you can with whatever's in front of you.

但如果你一直坚持下去，不断进步，就会解锁一些你根本无法预测的机会。

But like, there's going to if you keep going along and you keep getting better, that's going to unlock opportunities you can't possibly predict.

我觉得巴菲特和芒格的思维中有一种贯穿始终的理念，就是关于这一点的。

And there's a thing I I feel like there's a current running through the thinking of Buffett and Munger that that talks about this.

他们说，我们其实并不太看重详细的长期规划。

It's like, listen, we're not really big into master plans.

我们知道我们想拥有出色的企业。

We know we wanna own wonderful businesses.

我们知道我们想在公开市场上持有这些优秀企业的股份。

We know we wanna, you know, own pieces of wonderful business in public markets.

但本质上来说，我们不会执着于僵化的长期规划，而是会持续应对场上的实际情况。

But essentially, like, instead of going deep in this inflexible master plan, like, we're just gonna keep reacting to the game that's on the field.

所以芒格说，我非常不信任长期规划。

And so it says, Munger says, I have a deep distrust in master planning.

从来就没有过什么长期规划。

There has never been a master plan.

任何想要制定详细计划的人，都会被解雇，因为计划一旦形成就会脱离现实，无法应对新情况。

Anyone who wanted to do a master plan, fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn't cover the new reality.

巴菲特说，我们确实有一些优势，其中最大的优势是我们没有战略计划。

Buffett says, we do have a few advantages, perhaps the greatest being that we don't have a strategic plan.

因此，我们不需要遵循既定的方向，而可以简单地决定什么对我们的股东最有利。

Thus, we feel no need to proceed in an ordained direction, but can instead simply decide what makes sense for our owners.

查理和我从不坐在一起讨论行业的未来。

Charlie and I don't sit around and talk about the future of industries.

我们没有报告，也没有团队。

We have no reports or staff.

我们只是审查收到的信息，寻找那些具有持久竞争优势且价格合理的公司。

We just review what comes in and look for companies with a durable competitive advantage at an attractive price.

所以，好好想想这一点。

And so think about that.

这其实是一个相当简单的计划。

That is a rather simple plan.

我们只是会审查收到的任何信息。

We're just gonna review what comes in.

我们不断有人主动来推销他们的企业，向我们提出收购请求。

We constantly get people offering to sell our like, have inbound requests to to buy their businesses.

我们就会审查一下。

We'll just review it.

这是一家具有持久竞争优势且价格有吸引力的公司吗？

Does it is this a company with a durable competitive advantage and attractive price?

如果是，那我们就买下来。

If it is, okay, we'll buy it.

如果不是，我们就坐着不动，读书、思考，把钱攒起来。

And if it isn't, we'll just sit on our ass and we'll read and we'll think and we'll pile up money.

如果你的业务只有这两种模式，其实很难亏钱。

It's really hard to lose if if the that's the two different modes that you have in your business.

对吧？

Right?

这又回到了试图改变他人想法的徒劳之中。

This goes back into the futility that people just the futility of trying to change other people's minds.

不如干脆选择与不同的人合作，你知道，人们总是做他们想做的事。

Better to just select different people to work with, that, you know, people just do what they want to do.

巴菲特说，我和查理在说服那些我们认为在做不明智之事的正直聪明人士改变其行为方面的历史记录并不好。

And Buffett says, I'd say that the history that that Charlie and I have of persuading decent, intelligent intelligent people who we thought were doing unintelligent things to change their course of action has been poor.

当人们想做某事时，他们就会去做。

When people want to do something, they want to do something.

我们不会试图改变别人。

We don't try to change people.

这效果不好。

It doesn't work well.

我们接受人们本来的样子。

We accept people the way they are.

然后查理分享了一条他认为在经营企业时非常有价值的智慧。

And then Charlie passes on bit of wisdom that he thought was very valuable in running a business.

这来自一个名叫卡尔·布劳恩的人，他是一名工程师和企业家。

It's from this guy named Karl Braun, was an engineer and an entrepreneur.

它说，实践比仅仅在下达命令前思考理由，甚至比向命令接收者传达这些理由更为明智。

And it says, practices are wiser than not only thinking through reasons before giving orders, so orders to people in your company, but also communicating these reasons to the recipient of that order.

没有人比卡尔·布劳恩更清楚这一点，他以卓越的技能和诚信设计了炼油厂。

No one knew this better than Karl Braun, who designed oil refineries with spectacular skill and integrity.

他有一个非常简单的规则：你必须明确告诉谁、在哪儿、何时以及为什么要做某事。

He had a very simple rule: you had to tell who was to do what, where, when, and why.

如果你写的沟通内容遗漏了对为何要下达该指令的解释，布劳恩很可能会解雇你。

If you wrote a communication leaving off your explanation of why the addressee was to do what you what was ordered, Braun was likely to fire you.

因为布劳恩深知，当想法背后的原因被细致地阐明时，这些想法才能最有效地被理解。

Because Braun knew well, Braun well knew that ideas got through best when reasons for the ideas were meticulously laid out.

人们必须知道为什么——这正是查理在告诉我们的话。

People have to know why is what Charlie's telling us.

或者更简单地说，就是要始终告诉对方为什么。

Or even simpler way to think about that is always tell the other person why.

查理刚刚告诉我们，对于那些你明知其想法愚蠢的人，你不该花时间与他们争论。

Charlie just told us that there's no that you should spend no time arguing with people whose idea you know to be stupid.

在这方面，还有另一句精彩的话。

There's another great line in this regard.

你不必参加每一个你被邀请的争论。

You do not have to attend every argument that you're invited to.

接着他们谈到了查理的猩猩理论，我非常喜欢这个理论。

So then they talk about Charlie's orangutan theory, which I absolutely love.

我第一次接触到这个理论，其实是读了凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆的自传。

The first time I was introduced to this theory is actually I read the autobiography of Catherine Graham.

这显然是第152期节目。

It was obviously episode one fifty two.

她提到，在她的情况中，沃伦·巴菲特帮助她学习如何经营企业，而她认为沃伦就是她的‘猩猩’。

And she talked about that in her case, her the way she like Warren Buffett was helping her learn how to run her business and that she she thought that Warren was her version of the orangutan.

因此，芒格的猩猩理论是这样的。

And so Munger's orangutan theory is this.

如果一个聪明人走进一间房间，面对一只猩猩并阐述他的想法，猩猩只会坐在那里吃它的香蕉。

If a smart person goes into a room with an orangutan and explains whatever his or her idea is, the orangutang just sits there eating his his banana.

对话结束时，那个阐述观点的人会变得更有智慧。

And at the end of the conversation, the person explaining comes out smarter.

聪明人向猩猩阐述想法时，会提升他们的决策能力。

There's something about smart people explaining ideas to an orangutang that makes their decision making better.

这种想法是，仅仅通过表达，就能迫使你整理思路。

And it's this idea that you're just speaking this is actually forces you to organize your thought.

它能让你的思维更加清晰。

It clarifies your thinking.

这非常有帮助。

It's very helpful.

记得书的开头他们说过，重复是学习之母。

Remember at the beginning of the book, they said, repetition is the mother of learning.

查理·芒格反复提到这个观点：致富极难，但大多数人在致富后却很可能把财富搞砸。

Charlie Munger goes back to this idea that it's so hard to get rich, and yet most likely when you get rich, you're going to mess it up.

就是别搞砸了。

Just don't mess it up.

芒格说，问题不在于致富。

The problem is not getting rich, Munger says.

而在于保持清醒。

It is staying sane.

不知为何，巨大的成功往往会扭曲人的思维。

For whatever reason, extreme success war is tends to warp people's minds.

他们承受不了。

They cannot handle it.

我特别喜欢这一部分，因为它谈到，就像我们说过的，历史不会重复，但人性会重复，历史书中有些理念值数十亿美元。

And then I absolutely love this section because it talks about like, know, we talked about this like history doesn't repeat, human nature does, that there's ideas in history books that are worth, you know, billions of dollars.

我马上要读一段给你听。

I'm about to read you something.

对吧？

Right?

这听起来像是沃伦·巴菲特今天说的。

That sounds like Warren Buffett said it today.

我们刚刚从零利率环境走出来。

We just went from the zero interest rate environment.

利率正在上升。

Rates are going up.

估值正处于波动之中。

Valuations are, you know, being in flux.

但我即将读给你的这段话，是他1994年说的。我最近有段奇怪的经历——我经常在推特和领英上分享我读过的书里的重点内容。

And yet, what I'm about to read you, he said in 1994, I just had a weird experience where, you know, I share a lot of, like, highlights and stuff from books I read on Twitter and on LinkedIn.

我发了这条推文，马斯克还回复了我。

I tweeted this out, and Elon Musk responded back to it.

他基本上同意巴菲特在1994年从这本书里说的那些话，而这些话今天依然同样准确。

Basically agreeing with what Buffet said, again, in 1994 from this book, but is just as accurate as today.

巴菲特说，每一家企业的价值、一块农场、一栋公寓或任何其他经济资产的价值，100%都受利率影响。

Buffett says the value of every business, the value of a farm, an apartment, or any other economic asset is 100% sensitive to interest rates.

这是因为你在投资时，本质上是现在把钱转移给别人，以换取未来预期会返回的一系列现金流。

That's because all you're doing when you're investing is transferring money to someone now in exchange for a stream of money, which you expect to come back in the future.

利率越高，这种现值就越低。

And the higher the interest rates are, the less that present value will be.

利率之于资产价格，就像重力之于苹果。

Interest rates are to asset prices, sort of like gravity is to an apple.

当利率较低时，资产价格所受的引力作用就很小。

When interest rates are low, there is little gravitational pull on asset prices.

这是一句疯狂的话。

Intra this is a crazy sentence.

对吧？

Right?

我希望自己没明白这一点。

And I wish didn't understand this.

你知道，也许我之前没意识到这件事对我的生意来说相当重要。

You know, maybe I wasn't like something that was relatively important to like my business.

对吧？

Right?

但真神奇，我只希望自己能明白。

But it's just amazing where I just wish I understood.

我真希望早点明白这一点。

I wish I understood this before now.

因为如果你在1994年就明白了这一点，并且知道整个过程中利率在高和低之间来回波动，你本可以在这段从高利率到低利率、再从低利率回到最高利率的转变中大赚一笔。

Because if you understood this in 1994 and you knew that this entire time, you could have profited heavily off of this transition back and forth between high interest rates to low interest rates and now from low interest rates to highest high interest rates.

所以，这些想法真的能让你的钱包鼓起来。

So that's like there's like ideas really will put money in your wallet.

这只不过是一种思考方式。

It's just a way to think about it.

所以我打算重复一下第二段，因为我刚才打断了。

So I'm gonna repeat this second paragraph because I interrupted it.

但这非常有趣，我会在最后告诉你重点。

But this is very fascinating, and I'll tell you the punch line at the very end.

利率之于资产价格，就像重力之于苹果。

Interest rates are to asset prices sort of like gravity is to Apple.

当利率较低时，资产价格所受的引力作用很小。

When interest rates are low, there is little gravitational pull on asset prices.

这就是重点。

This is the punch line.

利率驱动着经济宇宙中的所有事物。

Interest rates power everything in the economic universe.

他们反复提到的另一点是，永远要追求高质量。

Another thing they repeat is the importance always go for quality.

卓越的企业如此稀少。

Wonderful businesses are so rare.

所以，如果你进入了一家卓越的企业，就不要离开。

So if you get into a wonderful business, do not leave it.

这种机会实在太难得了。

It is just a rare thing to happen.

如果你长期处于一个卓越的生意中，即使进入时支付的价格略高，只要你长期坚持，最终也会获得极佳的回报。

If you are in a wonderful business for a long time, even if you pay a little bit too much going in, getting into the business, you will get a wonderful result if you stay in that business for a long time.

巴菲在职业生涯早期并没有真正理解品牌的力量。

Buffy talks about early in his career, he did not really understood the power of brands.

这就像一种奇怪的抽象概念。

It's like this weird abstraction.

对吧？

Right?

这种认知源于他多年前收购喜诗糖果的经历。

It came from his purchase of See's Candy many, many years ago.

他意识到，品牌具有极高的价值。

He's like, oh, brands are extremely valuable.

品牌非常强大且极具价值。

They're they're value they're they're extremely powerful and valuable.

因此，这为未来其他盈利性投资奠定了基础。

And so this leads to other investments, profitable investments in the future.

因此，他说，通过观察喜诗糖果的运营，我获得了关于强大品牌价值的商业教育，这让我对许多其他盈利投资有了新的认识。

And so he says, additionally, through watching See's Candy in action, I gained a business education about the value of powerful brands that opened my eyes to many other profitable investments.

这正是我认为巴菲特是史上最伟大的沟通者之一的原因，因为他能把相对复杂的事情讲得简单明了，运用幽默，用故事与我们交流。

And this is an example of why I think Buffett's one of the world's greatest communicators that has ever lived, because it can communicate things that are, you know, relatively complex, make them simple, uses humor, talk tells talks to us in stories.

但这真的非常有趣。

But this was really interesting.

我想我以前在任何其他书里都没听过这种说法。

I don't think I've heard this before anywhere in any other book too.

他还谈到，有时候你不必那么精确，有些时候进一步分析其实是在浪费时间。

And he talks about like, there is sometimes there's there's like, you can be inexact and there's just times when further analysis is actually a waste of time.

这听起来很疯狂，因为他在这里提到的投资金额巨大。

And it sounds crazy because of the giant numbers that he is throwing out here in this investment.

但他会讲这个故事，我想你最后会明白的。

But he'll tell the story, I think it'll make sense to you at the end.

对于像中石油这样的投资，我的反应就像看到一个体重在三百到三百五十磅之间的人一样。

With something like PetroChina, my reaction is similar to seeing somebody who weighs somewhere between three hundred and three hundred fifty pounds.

我不确定他们具体有多重，但我知道他们很胖。

I might not know how much they weigh, but I know that they're fat.

这正是我所关注的。

And that's all I'm looking for.

判断一个机会是否在财务上很‘肥’。

Knowing if an opportunity is financially fat.

无论 PetroChina 的估值是 950 亿美元还是 1050 亿美元，她讨论的是它的真正价值。

And whether PetroChina weighed $95,000,000,000 or a $105,000,000,000, she's talking about the true valuation of it.

如果是 950 亿还是 1050 亿，其实差别不大。

If it's ninety five or one zero five, right, it did not make much difference.

为什么差别不大呢？

Why didn't it make much difference?

因为当时它的市值只有 350 亿美元。

Because at the time, it was selling for $35,000,000,000.

进一步细化分析只会浪费时间。

Any further refining of analysis would have been a waste of time.