#374 稀有的杰夫·贝佐斯访谈

从杰夫·贝佐斯第一封致股东的信开始，他就一直强调组建顶尖团队的重要性。

From day one in his very first shareholder letter, Jeff Bezos emphasized the importance of having the very best team.

他写道，我们在招聘上设下高标准，这一直是，也将会继续是亚马逊成功最关键的因素。

He wrote, setting the bar high in our approach to hiring has been and will continue to be the single most important element of Amazon's success.

杰夫对人才的重视，就像史蒂夫·乔布斯同年一次采访中说过的那句话。

Jeff's focus on talent is just like this quote from Steve Jobs that actually happened in an interview that very same year.

1997年史蒂夫接受采访时说，我一直很清楚该和哪些真正聪明的人打交道。

Steve gave this interview in 1997, and Steve said, I think I've consistently figured out who the really smart people were to hang around with.

你必须找到出类拔萃的人。

You must find extraordinary people.

生活中大多数事情，普通水平和顶尖水平之间的差距，最多也就两倍而已。

The key observation is that in most things in life, the dynamic range between average quality and best quality is at most two to one.

但在我关注的领域，我发现普通人能做成的事，和顶尖人物能做成的事，差距能达到五十倍甚至一百倍。

But in the field that I was interested in, I noticed that the dynamic range between what an average person could accomplish and what the best person could accomplish was 50 or 100 to one.

所以，你理应去追逐最顶尖的那批人。

Given that you're well advised to go after the cream of the cream.

你最好组建一支专注于顶尖人才的团队。

You're well advised to build a team that pursues A plus players.

而Ramp正是这么做的。

And that is exactly what Ramp did.

Ramp拥有业内最顶尖的技术团队。

Ramp has the most talented technical team in their industry.

想成为Ramp的工程师，几乎难如登天。

Becoming an engineer at Ramp is nearly impossible.

在过去十二个月里，他们只录取了申请者中0.23%的人。

In the last twelve months, they hired only point 23% of the people that applied.

所以当你使用Ramp时，实际上是在让一群顶级技术人才和最优秀的AI工程师，全天候为你自动化并优化公司的所有财务运营。

So when you use Ramp, you now have access to top tier technical talent and some of the best AI engineers working on your behalf 20 fourseven to automate and improve all of your business's financial operations.

他们所有这些功能都整合在一个平台上。

And they do this all on a single platform.

你用得越久，公司效率就越高。

The longer you use Ramp, the more efficient your company becomes.

这很重要，因为山姆·沃尔顿在他的自传里说过，只要你运营高效，就算犯不少错也能翻身；但如果你效率太低，哪怕再聪明也照样倒闭。

This is important because as Sam Walton said in his autobiography, you can make a lot of different mistakes and still recover if you run an efficient operation, or you can be brilliant and still go out of business if you're too inefficient.

Ramp 能帮你打造一个高效运转的组织。

Ramp helps you run an efficient organization.

在那次访谈快结束时，史蒂夫·乔布斯还提到，一小群顶尖人才能轻松碾压一大群普通员工。

In the end of that interview, Steve Jobs added, he said a small team of a plus players can run circles around a giant team of B and C players.

从客户的角度看，一支顶尖团队到底是什么感觉？

From a customer perspective, what does a team of A plus players sound like?

我读到过一条客户评价，说：用 Ramp 就像有个队友，你根本不用盯着他，事情他全安排得妥妥的。

It sounds like this customer review that I read, which said, Ramp is like having a teammate who you never need to check-in on because they have it handled.

Ramp 让你在一个平台上就能搞定所有财务运营的优化需求。

Ramp gives you everything you need to optimize all of your financial operations on a single platform.

Ramp 的网站做得太棒了。

Ramp's website is incredible.

去 ramp.com 了解一下，他们能怎么帮你的企业，别辜负了历史上那些伟大创业者的心血。

Make history's greatest entrepreneurs proud by going to ramp.com to learn how they can help your business today.

这就是 ramp.com。

That is ramp.com.

杰夫·贝佐斯最近在DealBook峰会上接受了安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金的采访，那场对话让我特别振奋，听完后我直接把采访稿打印了出来，一打出来有整整45页。

Jeff Bezos just did this interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the DealBook Summit, and the interview gave me so much energy that I actually printed out after I finished listening to it, I printed out the transcript, and it's, like, 45 pages long when you when you print it out.

我像读 podcast 里分析的每一本书那样，仔细翻看了整份文稿。

And I actually went through the transcript just like every book that I cover on the podcast.

里面全是我的笔记、重点标记和下划线。

So I have all my notes, my highlights, my underlines in there.

然后我决定按主题重新整理我的提纲。

And then what I decided to do is I rearranged my outline in order by topic.

如果你听完完整的采访——我强烈推荐你这么做——你会发现同样的主题在采访的不同部分反复出现。

So if you listen to the full interview, which I highly recommend that you do, you're gonna see the same topics appear in different parts of the interview.

我想先聊一聊贝佐斯说过的我最喜欢的一句话，因为他是我最敬佩的在世企业家之一，他说：‘退休这事儿真没劲。’

So I wanna start with one of my favorite things that Jeff Bezos said because Jeff is one of my favorite living entrepreneurs, and he says that retirement is lame.

他们聊到他提到自己其实特别不擅长退休这件事。

And they start talking about the fact that he says, the this retirement thing I've turned out to be extremely lame at.

所以他离开了亚马逊。

So he left Amazon.

他一直都在搞蓝色起源，但现在又回亚马逊工作了。

He was always working on Blue Origin, but now he's back working at Amazon.

他会详细讲讲他在那儿做些什么。

He's gonna talk a lot about what he's doing there.

但他提到一件事，特别有意思。

But he said something that was very fascinating.

他说了打造一家能超越你生命的公司有多重要，接着还会谈为什么他对人工智能如此看好，还用了一个特别贴切的比喻来形容他眼中的AI。

The importance of building a company that can outlast you, and then he's gonna talk about why he is so bullish on AI, and he's got a great metaphor for what he thinks AI is.

所以索尔金问贝索斯：亚马逊就像是你的孩子。

So Sorkin asks Bezos, he says, Amazon is your baby.

你当初放下了它。

You stepped away from that.

那感觉是怎样的？

What did it feel like?

贝索斯说了一番特别有意思的话。

And Bezos says something that's very fascinating.

他说，即使亚马逊还只是个小公司的时候，我就一直想着要打造一家能超越我生命的公司。

He says, even when Amazon was a tiny company, I always had it in my mind that I wanted to build a company that would outlast me.

所以我一直用这个视角来看待它，想着怎么让它像年轻人一样成长起来，最终独立地走向世界。

So I've always been thinking about it in that framework and how it could kind of grow into a young adult and be set off into the world successfully and independently.

那种感觉，就像父母送孩子去上大学。

I felt like a parent sending your kid off to college.

你希望孩子已经成长为一个独立的人，能够独自闯荡世界。

And you're hoping that you've created this independent young adult who can go off into the world.

你不想让他一直依赖你。

You don't want them to be dependent on you.

如果他还依赖你，那就是你失败了。

If they are, you fail.

我想在这里停一下，因为看到这里的时候，我根据杰夫说的话，想到了两点。

And so I wanna pause right there because when I got to this section, there's two things I thought about based on what Jeff was saying.

第一个来自Spotify的创始人丹尼尔·埃克。

One comes from Daniel Ek, the founder of Spotify.

另一个来自史蒂夫·乔布斯。

The other comes from Steve Jobs.

今年早些时候，我真有机会和丹尼尔·埃克共进晚餐，那场对话是我今年最棒的，不，是唯一一场让我印象深刻的。

And so earlier this year, I actually got to have dinner with Daniel Ek, and it was one of the best it it was I would say, not one of.

那是我今年收获最大、最有启发的一次交谈。

It was the best and most impactful conversation that I've had all year.

结果我像个傻瓜一样，居然没专门做一期节目讲讲这事。

And like an idiot, I didn't make an episode about it.

其实我只要给丹尼尔发个消息，说：嘿，

In fact, if I just texted Daniel, was like, hey.

咱们重新聊一次吧。

We should run that back.

我先看看他有没有兴趣，要是有，我一定好好做笔记，再做个专题节目。

So I'll see if he's up to doing that, and then I'll make sure I take notes and and make an episode about it.

因为我觉得丹尼尔无疑是当今最令人钦佩的创业者之一，我们能从他身上学到的东西太多了。

Because I think Daniel is one of the obviously, one of the most impressive living entrepreneurs, and there's just a ton that we can learn from him.

但在我和丹尼尔的那次对话中，他谈到了Spotify的创业历程，说了一番特别有意思的话。

But during the conversation that I did have with Daniel, he was telling about the history of Spotify, and he said something that was very fascinating.

他打了个比方，说一家公司就像孩子一样会成长。

He has this metaphor that a company ages like a child.

凡是当过父母的人都知道，孩子小时候，他们的行为和性格几乎就是父母的翻版。

And anyone that has kids knows that when your kids are really small, their behavior and their traits is really just a reflection of you.

而随着孩子长大，我现在正经历着和我12岁女儿的这段时期，真的挺不容易的。

And yet, as they age, I'm going through this right now with my my 12 year old daughter, it's kind of hard to deal with.

但孩子越长大，就越不像父母的复制品，他们自己的个性会慢慢显现出来。

But as they age, they become less of, like, a copy of you, and they have more of their like, their own, like, distinct personality emerges.

等他们到了18岁，那些特质已经完全来自他们自己的经历，和父母的控制或影响彻底分开了。

And so by the time they're 18, they have traits that are performed by their own experience, and they're completely separate and independent of the control or even the influence of their parents.

丹尼尔说，公司的发展也是同样的道理。

And Daniel x said a company is the same way.

公司刚成立时，就是创始人本人，完全依赖创始人。

At the beginning, the company is the founder and is wholly reliant on the founder.

但现在 Spotify 已经 18 岁了，它发展出了一系列创始人根本无法预料的技能和特质，这些全是公司自身经历中自然长出来的。

But now that Spotify is 18 years old, it's developed all these skills and traits that the founder, one, could not have predicted and has have emerged from within the company, from its own experience.

创始人的责任，其实是确保公司能独立生存并茁壮成长，不再依赖任何一个人。

And it's actually the job of the founder to make sure that the company can survive and thrive independent of any one person.

所以听到贝索斯在访谈里用类似的比喻，我觉得特别有意思。

So it was very interesting for me to hear Bezos use a similar metaphor in this interview.

他甚至说，他一直思考过一个框架：公司如何能像年轻人一样成长起来，然后顺利独立地走向世界。

I mean, he even says, I I thought about it in a framework, how a company could grow into a kind of a young adult and be set off into the world successfully and independently.

我脑子里立刻冒出第二点，还特意加了双下划线。

The second thing that popped to my mind and I I double underlined.

这一点对我来说特别重要。

It was really important to me.

贝索斯当时谈的就是这个。

Bezos was talking about.

他说，从一开始，我就一直想打造一家能超越我的公司。所以当史蒂夫·乔布斯知道自己时日无多时，他正在和沃尔特·艾萨克森一起撰写那本传记。

He's like, listen, even at the very beginning, I always wanted to build a company that would outlast me and so, when Steve Jobs knew he was dying, he was working on with Walter Isaacson on that that biography.

他提到的一句话特别有意思，听起来和贝索斯说的非常像。

And he said something that was very fascinating, and it's gonna sound a lot like what Bezos is saying.

乔布斯说，我不喜欢那些自称创业者的人——他们真正想做的，不过是创办一家初创公司，然后套现上市，赚一笔就走人。

And so Steve says, I hate it when people call themselves entrepreneurs, when what they really trying to do or what they're really trying to do is launch a startup and then sell or go public so they can cash in and move on.

他们不愿意花力气去打造一家真正的公司，而这才是商业中最难的事。

They're unwilling to do the work it takes to build a real company, which is the hardest work in business.

只有这样，你才算真正做出了贡献，延续了前人的事业。

That's how you really make a contribution and add to the legacy of those who went before you.

你要打造一家能在一二十年后依然有影响力的公司。

You build a company that will stand for something a generation or two from now.

沃尔特·迪士尼、休利特和帕卡德，还有创建英特尔的那些人，都是这么做的。

That's what Walt Disney did, and Hewlett and Packard, and the people who built Intel.

他们创办公司，是为了让它长存，而不仅仅是为了赚钱。

They created a company to last, not just to make money.

这正是我希望苹果成为的样子。

That is what I want Apple to be.

所以史蒂夫一直坚持要打造一个超越他自身的苹果，而杰夫在这段采访里说的，也正是同样的意思。

And so Steve was very adamant about building Apple to last beyond him, and Jeff is saying the exact same thing here in this interview about Amazon.

那我们再回头看看杰夫在这段关于亚马逊的讲话。

And so let's go back to what Jeff's saying in this Amazon.

他说，我希望亚马逊在我离开后依然能继续运转。

So he says, so I want Amazon to go off without me.

顺便说一下，我目前还在亚马逊。

I'm still at Amazon, by the way.

我还没有完全退出。

I haven't left fully.

在后面的采访里，他说你永远不会真正停止当一个家长。

You never stop being a parent later on in the interview.

他说得特别有意思。

He says really funny.

他说，我都六十岁了，爸妈还老为我操心。

He's like, I'm a 60 year old man, and my parents are still worrying about me.

所以他讲，我的心还在亚马逊。

So he says, my heart is at Amazon.

我的好奇心也留在亚马逊。

My curiosity is at Amazon.

我的爱也在那里。

My love is there.

整场采访中，杰夫一直在强调好奇心的重要性。

So throughout this entire interview, Jeff will constantly talk about the importance of curiosity.

他还提到自己总是跟着好奇心走。

He will mention how he follows his curiosity.

我最近刚在几个大会上做过演讲，其中一个大会是给已经退出的创业者办的。

I just gave a talk, a few talks at these conferences, and one of the conferences were for post exit founders.

那些创业者已经成功套现了，现在正琢磨下一步该做什么。

So founders that have already had a successful exit, and they're trying to figure out what to do next.

但当你单独和他们聊天时，很多问题都差不多，他们总说：我真的不知道接下来该做什么。

And then when you have conversations with them one on one, in private, a lot of the same questions come come up where they're like, I just don't know what to do.

我下一步该怎么做？

What should I do next?

你有没有什么建议，帮我决定接下来该专注什么，或者该创办什么样的公司？

Do you have any insight into how I should choose what I work on next or what my next company should be?

我的回答其实很简单。

And my answer is like very simple.

非常简单，就跟杰夫刚才说的一样。

It's very simple and similar to what Jeff is saying here.

你就跟着自己内心的好奇心走。

So so you just follow your innate curiosity.

保罗·格雷厄姆写过一篇特别棒的文章。

There is this great essay by Paul Graham.

我觉得是《创始人》系列的第314期。

I think it's episode three fourteen of Founders.

这篇文章叫《如何做出卓越的工作》。

It's called How to Do Great Work.

我现在想读一段原文，因为我相信杰夫在这次访谈中说的正是这个意思，这也是我一生中亲身实践的。

I wanna read an excerpt from it right now because I believe this is what Jeff is saying in this interview, this is certainly what I've done in my own life.

我这一辈子都痴迷于创业、历史、播客和阅读。

And I've been obsessed with entrepreneurship, history, podcasts, reading for my entire life.

《创始人》这个节目本质上就是我的人生事业，它只是把我从小到大一直着迷的那些古怪热情收集在一起罢了。

That's exactly what Founders is, is this is my life's work, it's just a collection of these weird passions that have grabbed hold of me, you know, since I was a child.

在这篇名为《如何做出卓越的工作》的文章里，它说：好奇心是最好的指引。

And so in this essay called How to Do Great Work, it says curiosity is the best guide.

你的好奇心从不骗你，它比你更清楚什么值得你关注。

Your curiosity never lies, and it knows more than you do about what's worth paying attention to.

如果你问一个先知，做出卓越工作的秘诀是什么，而他只用一个词回答，我敢打赌，这个词一定是‘好奇心’。

If you asked an oracle the secret to doing great work and the oracle replied with a single word, my bet would be on curiosity.

整个过程其实就是和好奇心跳的一支舞。

This whole process is kind of a dance with curiosity.

后来，当杰夫跟你我聊起他如何安排时间、哪些事情让他兴奋时，你就明白了，他只是在跟自己的好奇心共舞。

And so later on, when Jeff starts telling you and I about how he's spending time, what's exciting him, you realize that he's just dancing with his own curiosity.

我们再回来看杰夫。

So back to Jeff.

他说，现在我花了很多时间在亚马逊，因为我能帮上忙，而且这件事特别有意思。

He says, right now, I'm putting a lot of time in at Amazon because I can help and it is super interesting.

于是，安德鲁·索尔金接着问了一个问题。

And so though, Andrew Sorkin asks the follow-up question.

你在亚马逊具体做些什么？

What is it that you're doing at Amazon?

杰夫说，是人工智能。

AI, Jeff says.

差不多95%都是跟AI有关。

It is 95% AI.

我们实际上正在内部开发上千个应用场景。

We're literally working on a thousand applications internally.

你得记住，这简直说到我心坎里了。

You have to remember this is this just sings to my soul.

我喜欢这些事情随着时间慢慢串联起来的样子。

I love how all these things connect over the time.

我马上给你解释清楚我的意思。

I'll explain to you what I mean in one second.

你得记住，现代人工智能是一种通用的支撑技术。

You have to remember, modern AI is a horizontal enabling layer.

它能提升方方面面的效率。

It can be used to improve everything.

它会渗透到每一个领域。

It will be in everything.

这最像当年的电力。

This is most like electricity.

所以我想在这里停一下。

And so I want to pause there.

他刚说，人工智能最像电力。

He just said AI is most like electricity.

这就像一层套一层，一个想法里面藏着另一个想法。

This is like going to be an inception, like an idea inside of an idea.

明白吗？

Okay?

我很久以来一直特别着迷于研究贝索斯。

I've been obsessed with studying Bezos for a long time.

我想就在这里暂停一下，我们说到这儿。

And I'm going to pause where we're in this interview.

我想回过头去看看他那场TED演讲。

I want to go back to this TED Talk he gave.

他二十年前做了那场TED演讲。

He gave this TED Talk twenty one years ago.

五年前我就记过杰夫·贝索斯那场TED演讲的笔记，所以刚才我又翻了出来。

I took notes on Jeff Bezos' TED Talk five years ago, and so I went and pulled him up.

他的TED演讲叫作‘电力隐喻’。

His TED Talk is called the electricity metaphor.

这是这场TED演讲的简介。

This is the description of the TED Talk.

人们常把互联网的繁荣与泡沫比作淘金热，但亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯说，它更像电力行业刚起步的时候。

It says the .com boom and bust is often compared to the gold rush, but Amazon founder Jeff Bezos says it's more like the early days of the electric industry.

我来念一段我当时看这场TED演讲时做的笔记。

So I'm gonna read you some of my notes from this TED Talk.

这场演讲是杰夫·贝佐斯谈互联网未来的电力隐喻。

The TED Talk is Jeff Bezos on the electricity metaphor of the web's future.

他说这话的时候是2003年。

He's saying this in 2003.

明白吗？

Okay?

贝佐斯说，互联网太不可思议了。

Bezos says, the Internet is so incredible.

要找到一个恰当的比喻真不容易。

It is hard to get the right analogy for it.

我们如何应对事物、对未来的预期，很大程度上取决于我们怎么归类它们。

A lot of how we decide how we react to things and what to expect about the future depends on how we categorize them.

他刚经历的互联网泡沫繁荣与破裂，人们很容易拿它来比作淘金热。

The tempting analogy for the boom and bust of the Internet that he just went through.

明白吗？

Okay?

互联网的热潮，常被比作淘金热。

Of the Internet is the gold rush.

所以，在TED演讲一开始，他就把互联网热潮和淘金热拿来对比分析。

And so at the beginning of the TED talk, he starts to compare and contrast the Internet rush and the gold rush.

他说，好吧。

And he says, okay.

这两者确实都真实发生过。

Well, both of those were very real.

当时出现了巨大的繁荣。

Huge there was huge boom.

随后又迎来大萧条，还有大量的炒作。

There was a huge bust and lots of hype.

太多人放下了手头的工作，去参与淘金热和互联网热潮，现在你也能看到同样的情况发生在人工智能领域。

So many people left what they were doing to join both the gold rush and the Internet rush, and you see this obviously now with AI as well.

这就是为什么我觉得他二十一年前说的这些观点至今仍和他当前的工作紧密相连，实在太有意思了。

So this is the point of why I'm taking these ideas that he said twenty one years ago, and he's still connecting it with what he's working on today, which I thought was very, very fascinating.

在淘金热期间，人们直接跳下船就走。

In the gold rush, people literally jumped ship.

旧金山港里停着六百多艘被遗弃的船。

San Francisco Harbor was clogged with 600 abandoned ships.

有商人把这些船改造成旅馆。

Entrepreneurs turned the ships into hotels.

你想听点更离谱的吗？

You wanna hear something wild?

很多年前了，大概六年前吧。

Many years ago, probably six years ago.

好像是《创始人》节目第33集左右。

It's like, I think episode like 33 of Founders or something like that.

我读过李维·斯特劳斯的传记。

I read Levi Strauss' biography.

后来李维跑去旧金山创业了。

And Levi wind up going and building his business in San Francisco.

他自传里有个特别离谱的故事，正好被杰夫提到，人们管那些人叫疯狂的创业者。

And there is a crazy story about what Jeff is referencing in Levi Strauss' autobiography that they call them wildly entrepreneurs.

他们是真正不达目的不罢休、特别会就地取材的创业者。

We're really relentlessly resourceful entrepreneurs.

他们会把那些废弃的船改造成用途。

They would take the abandoned ships.

对吧？

Right?

人们把船丢在港口，自己跑上岸，拼命去淘金。

The people just left the ships in the harbor, ran, got to shore, and ran off trying to get gold.

这些极具创造力的企业家把船拖上岸，改造成仓库或者旅馆。

And these wildly entrepreneurs pulled them ashore and remade them in in the into either warehouses or hotels.

我特别喜欢那时候人们那种不达目的不罢休的韧劲。

And I just love that the relentless resourcefulness that you saw back then.

所以杰夫，回到那个TED演讲，他说，这个类比到这里就开始不一样了。

So then Jeff, back to the TED Talk, says, this is where the analogy starts to diverge.

淘金热一结束，就真的结束了。

In a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.

但有一个更好的类比，能让你保持极度乐观，那就是电力行业——他刚才提到的那个。

Therefore, there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic, and that analogy is the electric industry, which he just referenced.

他说，互联网的类比，应该就是电力行业。

He he's gonna say the Internet, the metaphor for the Internet is the electric industry.

二十一年后，他说人工智能的类比同样是电力行业，原因就在这儿。

Now twenty one years later, he's gonna say the analogy for AI is also the electric industry, and this is why.

互联网和电力行业有很多相似之处。

There are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.

它们都是横向的、基础性的平台，贯穿众多不同行业。

They are both thin, horizontal enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.

它们本身并不是某种具体的产品。

It is not a specific thing.

两者都能作为强大的能源传输方式。

They both can be used as incredible means of transmitting power.

两者也都是传输信息流的绝佳工具。

They both are an incredible means of communicating information flows.

我想重点谈的是电力革命中的家电黄金时代。

The part of the electric revolution I want to focus on is on the golden age of appliances.

换句话说，他讲的是在基础平台搭建好之后，接下来会发生什么。

So in other words, he's talking about what comes after the horizontal enabling layers are made.

他说，真正让世界准备好迎接家电的杀手级应用——而这种应用在电力出现之前根本不存在——就是电灯泡。

And he says the killer app that got the world ready for appliances, which did not exist before electricity, right, was the light bulb.

但他们在为世界布线的时候，并没有想着家电。

But they were not thinking about appliances when they wired the world.

他们并不是把电引进家里。

They weren't putting electricity into the home.

他们只是把照明引进了家里。

They were putting lighting into the home.

没人说：‘我想用电。’

No one said, hey, I want electricity.

他们说的是：‘我想有灯光。’

They said, I want lighting.

我觉得这一点特别值得停下来想一想。

And I think that's an important part to pause and think about.

没人说：‘我想用电。’

Like, no one said, I want electricity.

他们说的是：‘我想有灯光。’

They said, I want lighting.

他们想要的是你的产品能带来的东西。

They want what your product enables.

就像没人会说，我想拥有AI。

Just like no one's saying, hey, I want AI.

他们想要的是AI现在能实现的功能——归根结底，任何新技术不过就是让人把事情做得更好一点。

They want what is now possible with AI, which is, again, just a better way to do something is all a new technology is anyways.

所以他回头谈到了家用电器。

So he's Jeff goes back and talks about the appliances.

家用电器得益于电力革命所打下的坚实基础设施。

Appliances benefited from the heavy infrastructure that was laid down by the electric revolution.

互联网得以建立在电力革命留下的庞大基础设施之上，就像现在的AI，也是站在互联网多年积累的成果之上。

The Internet got to stand on top of all that heavy infrastructure that was put in place because of the long distance phone network, like all the AI is now sitting on top of all the work done for the Internet.

关于早期互联网的这部分，他是在2003年说的，那时候互联网能发展起来，是因为它站在了长途电话网络所铺设的基础设施之上。

So this this part about the early Internet, remember he's saying this in 2003, it gets to stand on top of all the heavy infrastructure that was put in place during because the long distance telephone network.

我之前试着跟我12岁的女儿解释，说我以前管互联网叫‘上网’。

I was trying to explain to my 12 year old daughter that I used to call the Internet.

我还特意上了YouTube，给她放了当年登录AOL时那个提示音。

I even went on YouTube and played her the sound that it would make when you sign on to, like, AOL.

她完全无法理解。

She just had no concept.

那时候上网还得拨号连接。

They used to have to call.

互联网是个需要主动去使用的工具。

That the Internet was a thing that you had to actually access.

它不是像现在这样，24小时在线，随时在你手里。

It wasn't on 247 and, you know, in her hand all the time.

回到杰夫说的，家电黄金时代的初期。

So back to what Jeff is saying about the beginning age of the golden age of appliances.

那时候还没人想到要装个关机键。

They hadn't yet invented the off switch.

那个功能是后来才出现的。

That came much later.

他们那时候连电源插座都没发明出来。

They hadn't invented the electrical outlet either.

这事儿简直让我惊呆了。

This thing blew my mind.

我会在下面放一个TED演讲的链接。

They I'll leave a link down below for the the TED talk.

我强烈推荐你们去YouTube上看一下。

I would highly recommend watching it on YouTube.

在电力刚普及的年代，人们都是把电器插到灯座上用的。

In the early days of of electricity, they plug appliances into the light socket.

那时候根本没什么开关，也没有电源插座。

There was no such thing as an off switch, and there's no such thing as an electrical outlet.

杰夫的TED演讲里就有这些照片。

And there's pictures of this in Jeff's TED talk.

简直难以置信。

It's absolutely nuts.

所以他在2003年谈互联网时的核心观点，我觉得现在用在AI上也一样——我们还处在摸索这项技术的阶段。

And so his point about the Internet that he was making in 2003, and I think that what he's making the point about AI today is that we are still in the figuring this technology out phase.

再回到这一点上。

So back to this.

如果你把互联网比作淘金热，那现在你肯定觉得挺沮丧的。

If you think of the Internet in terms of the gold rush, you'd be pretty depressed right now.

最后一块金子早就被挖光了。

The last nugget of gold would be gone.

但创新不一样，根本不存在什么‘最后一块金子’。

With innovation, there isn't a last nugget.

每出现一个新事物，都会带来两个新问题和两个新机会。

Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.

接下来是我从杰夫的TED演讲里最后要读给你们听的一段话。

And this is the last thing I'll read to you from Jeff's TED Talk.

如果你真相信这还只是刚开始，那你就会无比乐观。

If you really do believe it's the very beginning, you're incredibly optimistic.

在这场与安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金的对话中，杰夫一直说，如今绝对是人类历史上最令人兴奋的时代。

Throughout the this conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Jeff kept saying, like, today's by far the most exciting time to be alive in human history.

所以他讲，如果你真相信这还只是刚开始，那你就会无比乐观。

So he says, if you really do believe this is the very beginning, then you're incredibly optimistic.

我觉得我们前方的创新，远多于已经走过的路。

I do think there's more innovation ahead of us than there is behind us.

我们还处在非常非常早期的阶段。

We are very, very early.

而且在2003年，互联网泡沫破灭后说这话，确实挺有争议的。

And again, saying that in 2003, after the the the dot com bust, you know, was controversial.

但站在今天的视角回头看，我们知道他当时说得完全没错。

But from our vantage point today, we knew he was absolutely correct about this.

在继续之前，我想快速再强调一下，这部分最重要。

And so real quick before I move on, I just think this is the most important part to repeat.

有一个更好的比喻，能让你保持极度乐观，那就是电力行业。

There's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic, and that analogy is the electric industry.

互联网和电力行业有很多相似之处。

There are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.

它们都是那种跨多个行业的薄层、通用型基础平台。

They are both thin, horizontal enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.

两者都能高效地传输能量，也都能完美地传递信息流。

They both can be used as incredible means of transmitting power, and they're both an incredible means of communicating information flows.

现在，我们暂且跳出这场TED演讲，回到杰夫·贝佐斯最近的这次采访。

So now we're going to jump out of the TED talk back into this latest rare Jeff Bezos interview.

他要讲一个类比，说明为什么他认为AI正经历着和当年催生AWS一样的转折点。

He's going to draw this analogy of why he thinks the same thing is for AI by of this trip that inspired him to create AWS.

他说，很多年前，我去过卢森堡的一家啤酒厂。

So he says many, many years ago, I went to a brewery in Luxembourg.

事实上，那次旅行正是促成AWS创立的微小契机之一。

In fact, this trip was one of the tiny catalysts for founding AWS.

那家啤酒厂有三百年的历史，他们对自己的传统非常自豪，还建了个博物馆。

The brewery was 300 years old and they were very proud of their history and they had a museum.

博物馆里有一台发电机。

And in that museum was an electric power generator.

它已经有百年历史了。

It was 100 years old.

当他们想用电来提升啤酒厂的效率时，根本就没有电网。

When they wanted to improve the efficiency of their brewery with electricity, there was no power grid.

记住这一点。

Keep that in mind.

那时候根本不存在电网这回事。

There was no such thing as a power grid.

所以他们只能自己建发电站。

So they had to build their own power station.

自己发电。

So they made their own electricity.

那时候，每个人都是这么做的。

And at that time, that's what everybody had to do.

如果一家酒店需要电力，就得自己配备发电机。

If a hotel wanted electricity, they had to have their own electric generator.

我看着这个，突然意识到，现在的计算方式就是这样。

And I looked at this and I thought, this is what computation is like today.

每个人都建自己的数据中心，但这肯定撑不了多久。

Everybody has their own data center and that's just not going to last.

这根本说不通。

It makes no sense.

未来你会像用电一样，按需购买计算能力。

You are going to buy compute off the grid.

这就是AWS。

That is AWS.

其实我们亚马逊内部早就这么做了。

We were already doing it internally at Amazon for ourselves.

像电力、计算，还有现在的AI，这类基础层服务都会变成通用的基础设施。

These kind of horizontal layers like electricity and compute and now artificial intelligence, they go everywhere.

你根本想不出有任何应用是不能被人工智能变得更好的。

There is not a single application that you can think of that is not going to be made better by AI.

我特别喜欢这一段。

And then I love this part.

我很喜欢杰夫在这里说的话。

I love what Jeff says here.

他说，我们现在正同时身处多个黄金时代。

He says, we're in multiple golden ages at once.

他说，现在这个世界真是精彩极了。

So he says, the world is so interesting right now.

我们现在正同时身处多个黄金时代。

We're in multiple golden ages at once.

他指的是太空、人工智能，还有机器人技术。

So he's calling he's talking about space and AI and also robotics.

他说，我认为这可能是人类历史上最非凡的时刻。

He says, I think there's never been a more extraordinary moment to be alive.

我们真是太幸运了。

We are so lucky.

这段话里，听他讲这些的时候，能明显感觉到他特别激动。

This section, when he's talking about this, you can see he's very excited.

我读过关于埃德温·兰德的很多内容，他不仅是宝丽来的创始人，也是乔布斯的偶像，他有一句特别棒的座右铭。

One of my favorite things that I ever read about Edwin Land, Edwin Land, obviously, the founder of Polaroid and Steve Jobs' hero, and he has this great motto.

他说，乐观是一种道德责任。

And he says optimism is a moral duty.

从这次访谈里很明显能看出来，杰夫是个乐观的人。

And it's obvious in this interview that Jeff is optimistic.

他对自己能参与这些新技术的研发感到无比兴奋。

He's excited about getting the opportunity to work on all these new technologies.

现在他开始谈到蓝色起源公司了。

And so he's talking now he starts talking about Blue Origin.

有两句杰夫说的话，我特别喜欢，一直反复在心里念叨。

And there's two lines that I heard Jeff say that I actually love, and I repeat over and over again.

这个观点是说，不是人拥有想法，而是想法选择了人；你不是在选择自己的热情，而是热情在挑选你。

It's this idea that people don't have ideas, that ideas have people, and that you don't choose your passions, they choose you.

所以他谈到，为什么蓝色起源这么重要？

And so he's talking about, you know, why is Blue Origin so important?

为什么他愿意为它投入这么多心血？

Why is he dedicating so much misfortune to it?

他说，你听好了。

He's like, listen.

我从十几岁开始就在想这件事了。

I've been thinking about this since I was a teenager.

事实上，我高中校报上还登过一篇关于我太空计划的文章。

In fact, there's an article in my high school newspaper about my space plans.

我那时候就跟所有人说，我的计划里就包括我现在还在做的——把所有污染工业都移到地球之外。

I would tell everyone, and those plans included what I'm still working on, which is trying to move all polluting industry off of Earth.

这可不是天方夜谭。

This is not fantastical.

这件事一定会发生。

This is going to happen.

我们必须降低进入太空的成本。

We need to lower the cost to access space.

我们可以创造条件，让下一代或者下下一代能把污染产业移出地球。

We can set up the preconditions where the next generation or the generation after that will be able to move polluting industry off of Earth.

如果你想大量使用能源和排放污染物，那就得在地球外面做。

If you want to use large amounts of energy and large amounts of pollutants, you need to do that off of earth.

他解释了为什么这件事如此重要。

And he talks about why this is so important.

我们必须发展这种高能耗的文明，人均能源消耗还得不断上升。

We have to have this energy intensive civilization and use ever more energy per capita.

只要能把这些活动移到地球外，我们就能享受更多能源带来的好处，又不污染地球。

And we'll get all the benefits of using more and more energy without polluting the planet if you can move it off of Earth.

太空中有无限的能源，无限的原材料。

Space has infinite energy, infinite raw materials.

所以他意思是，我们必须能接触到这些资源。

So he's saying that, like, we have to have access to them.

这正是我在蓝色起源公司努力要做的事。

That's what I'm trying to do at Blue Origin.

当时还有一场特别有意思的讨论，因为他们提到，他面试过蓝色起源的首席执行官。

And there was a really fascinating discussion because they were talking about the fact that he hired he was interviewing a CEO from Blue Origin.

安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金说，嘿。

And Andrew Ross Sorkin says, hey.

你面试戴夫·林普当首席执行官的时候，他问你，蓝色起源是爱好还是生意？

When you were interviewing Dave Limp to be the CEO, he asked you if Blue Origin was a hobby or a business.

贝索斯回答说，这是个生意。

And Bezos responded like, it's a business.

现在还谈不上多赚钱，但我觉得他说的这句话，可能是整个采访里最让我惊讶的地方。

It's not a very good business yet, but I think this is one of the wildest things I think he says in the entire interview that surprised me the most.

从财务回报的角度来看，我觉得这会是我参与过的最赚钱的生意，只是需要时间。

I think from a financial returns point of view, I I think it's going to be the best business that I've ever been involved in, but it's going to take a while.

然后对方接着问，规模会比亚马逊还大吗？

And so the follow-up was like, bigger than Amazon?

贝索斯说是的。

Bezos says, yes.

亚马逊头十一年都在亏钱。

We lost money at Amazon for eleven years.

汤姆·布罗考曾经采访过我，聊的就是亚马逊亏损的事。

Tom Brokaw interviewed me one time about Amazon's losses.

他说，贝索斯先生。

He said, Mr.

您连利润（profit）这个词怎么拼都不知道吗？

Bezos, can you even spell profit?

我说，知道，P-R-O-P-H-E-T（先知）。

And I said, yes, p r o p h e t.

接下来我们要聊的，是我觉得到目前为止最棒的一个问题，因为大家想想贝索斯刚才说了什么。

And so then we get what I feel is the best question so far, because think about what Bezos just said.

你知道吗，蓝色起源现在还不是一个赚钱的生意，但从我个人的投资回报来看，我觉得它将来会成为我参与过的最成功的生意，比亚马逊还厉害。

You know, it's Blue Origin not a very good business yet, but I think from one at one point, from my financial returns point of view, it's going to be the best business that I've ever been involved in, bigger than Amazon.

所以接下来这个问题问得特别好。

And so this follow-up question was excellent.

你是怎么做到有底气去创办一个需要如此大规模投入的企业的？

Where do you think your confidence comes from to create a business that requires such scale?

大多数人总想看清前方的路再行动。

Most people want to be able to see where they're going.

亚马逊也好，航天事业也罢，你根本看不到终点在哪儿。

The case of Amazon, in the case of Space, you cannot see where you're going.

这个问题问得太到位了。

This is excellent.

贝索斯说，我的一个观察是，人类天性总是高估风险、低估机会。

Bezos says, one observation I would have is that I think it's generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity.

所以我觉得，所有创业者都应该警惕这种人性的倾向。

And so I think entrepreneurs in general would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature.

你可能高估了风险，而机会其实比你想象的要大得多。

The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive.

你说这是自信，但也许这不过是意识到人类有这种偏见，然后刻意去纠正它。

You say it's confidence, but maybe it's just trying to compensate for that, accepting that that is a human bias and trying to compensate against it.

另一个我想说的是，眼光太短浅，反而会让自己真的走不远。

The second thing I would say is that thinking small is a self fulfilling prophecy.

接着，索尔金又问了一个跟进的问题。

So then Sorkin asked a follow-up question.

你觉得你是从哪儿学会这些的？

Where do you think you learned this?

这话要是出自一位睿智的长者，一点都不奇怪。

This is something a wise old man would say.

我记得1999年你在《60分钟》节目里，他们问你，亚马逊到底能不能成。

I remember watching you on sixty minutes in like 1999, and they were asking you whether this whole thing, whether Amazon could work out or not.

你说你从不担心它会失败。

And you said it's not a fear that it can't work.