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我问查理·芒格他对杰夫·贝佐斯的看法，他告诉我贝佐斯极其聪明。
I asked Charlie Munger what he thought of Jeff Bezos and he told me that Bezos was ferociously intelligent.
在这本书中，巴菲特称贝佐斯为奇迹创造者。
In this book, Buffett calls Bezos a miracle worker.
贝佐斯与芒格和巴菲特的一个共同点，从第一天起就存在。
And something that Bezos had in common with Munger and Buffett is from day one.
在他第一封致股东的信中，杰夫·贝佐斯强调了组建最优秀团队的重要性。
In his very first shareholder letter, Jeff Bezos emphasized the importance of having the very best team.
他写道：在招聘中设定高标准，一直是，并将继续是亚马逊成功的最重要因素。
He wrote, Setting the bar high in our approach to hiring has been and will continue to be the single most important element of Amazon's success.
贝佐斯对人才的重视，正如同史蒂夫·乔布斯在1997年同一场采访中所说的那句话。
Bezos' focus on talent is just like this quote from Steve Jobs that happened in an interview that Steve gave the very same year in 1997.
史蒂夫说：我一直清楚地知道该和哪些真正聪明的人交往。
And Steve said, I think that I've consistently figured out who the really smart people are to hang around with.
你必须找到非凡的人。
You must find extraordinary people.
关键的观察是，在生活中大多数事情上，平均水平与最佳水平之间的差距最多只有两倍。
The key observation is that in most things in life, the dynamic range the dynamic range between the average quality and the best quality is at most two to one.
但在我对这个领域感兴趣时，我发现普通人的成就与顶尖人物的成就之间的差距达到了50倍甚至100倍。
But in the field that I was interested in, I noticed that the dynamic range between what an average person could accomplish and what the best person could accomplish was 50 or 100 to one.
因此，鉴于这一点，你最好去寻找最顶尖的人才，组建一支专注于A+级人才的团队。
So given that, you're well advised to go after the cream of the cream and to build a team that pursues the A plus players.
而这正是Ramp所做的事情。
And that is exactly what Ramp did.
Ramp拥有其行业中最具才华的技术团队。
Ramp has the most talented technical team in their industry.
成为Ramp的工程师几乎不可能。
Becoming an engineer at Ramp is nearly impossible.
在过去十二个月里，他们只录取了申请者中的0.23%。
In the last twelve months, they've hired only 0.23% of the people that applied.
这意味着，当你使用Ramp时，你实际上是在让顶级技术人才和最优秀的AI工程师为你24/7工作，自动化并优化你公司所有的财务运营。
This means when you use Ramp, you now have top tier technical talent and some of the best AI engineers working on your behalf 20 fourseven to automate and improve all of your business's financial operations.
而且他们在一个单一平台上完成这一切，这意味着你使用Ramp的时间越长，你的公司就会变得越高效。
And they do this on a single platform, which means the longer that you use Ramp the more efficient your company becomes.
这一点非常重要，因为山姆·沃尔顿在他的自传中说过：如果你运营一个高效的组织，即使犯了很多不同的错误，你仍然可以挽回；但如果你效率太低，即使再聪明，也可能倒闭。
That is very important because as Sam Walton said in his autobiography, you can still make a lot of different mistakes and still recover if you run an efficient operation or you can be brilliant and still go out of business if you're too inefficient.
Ramp帮助你打造一个高效的组织。
Ramp helps you run an efficient organization.
在这次采访的最后，史蒂夫·乔布斯补充了一点。
In the end of that interview, Steve Jobs added one thing.
他说，一小群A+级别的员工能轻松超越一支由大量B级和C级员工组成的大团队。
He said that a small team of A plus players can run circles around a giant team of b and c players.
从客户的角度来看，拥有一支A+团队意味着什么？
From a customer's perspective, what does having a team of a plus players sound like?
它就像我读到的这条客户评价：Ramp就像有一位队友，你根本不需要去跟进，因为一切都已经安排妥当。
It sounds like this customer review that I read, which said that Ramp is like having a teammate who you never need to check-in on because they have it handled.
Ramp的网站令人惊叹。
Ramp's website is incredible.
今天花点时间访问网站，预约演示并体验一下这个产品。
Take the time today to visit it and set up a demo and check out this product.
你绝对不会后悔的。
You won't regret it.
前往 ramp.com，让历史上最伟大的企业家为你感到骄傲，了解他们如何帮助你的企业今天就取得进展。
Make history's greatest entrepreneurs proud by going to ramp.com and learn how they can help your business today.
那就是 ramp.com。
That is ramp.com.
我还想向你们介绍另一个工具：Vesto。
One more tool that I want to tell you about is Vesto.
我的很多朋友都在使用 Vesto，以便在一个视图中查看他们公司所有的银行账户。
A lot of my friends are using Vesto to see all of their company's bank accounts in one view.
Vesto 帮助你通过一个仪表板连接并管理所有企业银行账户。
Vesto helps you connect and control all of your business bank accounts from one dashboard.
我认识 Vesto 的创始人本，和他深入交流过，我还主动提出帮他引荐其他可能受益于使用 Vesto 的朋友。
I know the founder of Vesto, Ben, spent a bunch of time with him, and I've offered to help him by introducing him to other of my friends that could benefit from using Vesto.
我确实给一位朋友打了电话，他告诉我：大卫，你让我见谁我都愿意，但我得提前告诉你，我们拒绝了超过90%的软件推销。
And I actually called one of my friends and he told me, David, I will meet with anyone that you want me to, but I have to tell you upfront that we say no to over 90% of the software that we were pitched.
但一周后我收到回音，他说本和Vesto很棒，他们已经签约了。
And yet a week later I hear back and he said that Ben and Vesto are great and that they signed up.
于是我问他：你能请你的团队用自己的话解释一下，他们从Vesto中获得了什么好处吗？
So I asked him, can you please ask your team to explain the benefit they get from Vesto in their own words?
他们说：它让我们能够在一个平台上，通过单点登录查看所有银行账户和贷款账户。
They said, It provides us the ability to view all of our bank accounts and loan accounts on one platform with a single sign on.
相比需要登录20家不同的银行，现在在一处就能管理用户权限，方便多了。
It makes it much easier to grant access to users in one place as opposed to 20 different banks.
于是我发消息问：在使用Vesto之前，你们是怎么做的？
So I text back, What did they do before Vesto?
他的回复是：我们有20多个不同的银行登录账号，分散在五位会计师手里。
This is his response: We have 20 plus different bank logins across like five accountants.
我们实际上使用了21家银行，每家银行都有账户和贷款，都需要多人访问和查看。
We literally use 21 banks, so every bank has an account and a loan that multiple people need access and views to.
只是登录并查看所有信息就要花上几个小时，而且还要在不同的标签页之间切换。
Just to log in and see everything would take hours and be in all different tabs.
如果你有多个账户和多个业务，请访问 vesto.com 预约创始人本的演示，并告诉他你是大卫介绍的。
So if you have multiple accounts and multiple businesses, go to vesto.com and schedule a demo with the founder Ben, tell him that David sent you.
这是带字母 V 的 vesto。
That is vesto with a V.
所以是 vesto.com。
So vesto.com.
链接也会在节目笔记中提供。
The link will also be down in the show notes.
希望你喜欢这一集。
I hope you enjoy this episode.
这一集其实就是我快速梳理芒格和巴菲特的诸多最佳理念，整个过程我非常享受。
It really is just me ripping through a bunch of Munger and Buffett's best ideas very rapidly, and I had a lot of fun doing so.
今天我想和你们聊的这本书是《未加修饰的巴菲特与芒格：伯克希尔股东大会三十年的投资与商业洞见。'
So the book that I want to talk to you about today is Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meetings.
这本书由亚历克斯·莫里斯选编，他在书出版前好心寄给我一本。
It was selected and arranged by Alex Morris, and Alex was kind enough to send me a copy before the book was released.
他有一个非常聪明的想法。
He had a really smart idea.
从1994年左右开始，所有的伯克希尔股东大会都被直播了。
Since I think 1994, all of the Berkshire meetings or Berkshire meetings have been broadcast.
这些会议都被录制并播出，任何人都可以观看。
They've been recorded and broadcast, so anybody can watch them.
所以他花了三十年时间，观看了每一届会议，做了大量笔记，然后为你们和我整理出了这样一个工具——在我看来，这就像一本参考手册。
So he went through like thirty years, watched every single meeting, took copious amounts of notes, and then what he created for you and I, really, the way I think about this is it's a reference tool.
他没有按年份分类，而是按主题分类。
So he separated it not by year, but by topic.
你可以拿起这本书，通过目录找到你感兴趣的主题，比如：‘我想了解主题X。’
So you can pick up this book, you know, through the table of contents and say, Oh, okay, I want to learn about subject X.
然后直接翻到那一页，就能看到某年某时刻，他们对这个主题说了什么。
You go right to that page and it'll show, you know, this year at this timestamp, this is what they said about that.
所以我从头到尾按时间顺序读完了这本书，就像我一贯做的那样，做了大量笔记、划了重点，还补充了背景信息——当我阅读这些笔记和划线时，我会思考它们与你我之前讨论过的379期节目以及我们研究过的数百位历史上的企业创始人之间的关联。
So, I read the book all the way through in chronological order and did what I always do, which is just take a copious amount of notes and underlines and then add context like when as I'm reading these notes and highlights, how it relates to the other, you know, three seventy nine episodes that you and I have gone over and the hundreds of History of Scales founders that you and I have studied.
我想先从查理·芒格谈起，他谈到通过追随好奇心和强烈兴趣来创造属于自己的幸运。
I want to start out with Charlie Munger talking about the importance of creating your own luck by following your curiosity and your intense interest.
查理说，沃伦说自己很幸运找到了GEICO，但并不是每个21岁的年轻人都会跑到华盛顿特区，去敲打空置建筑的门，只为探索自己好奇的事物。
And so Charlie says, Warren says he was lucky to find GEICO, but not every 21 year old was going go down to Washington DC and start knocking on the doors of empty buildings to try to find something out that he was curious about.
因此，我们也通过保持好奇心和追求智慧，为自己创造了幸运。
So we also made our own luck by being curious and seeking wisdom.
巴菲特对此做了补充。
Buffett adds to this.
如果你享受自己正在做的事情，你很可能比每天早晨咬紧牙关去上班的人取得更好的结果。
If you enjoy what you're doing, you are likely to get a better result than if you go to work with your teeth clenched every morning.
我最喜欢的是，他们反复表达类似的观点——显然，他们强调重复的重要性，因为重复具有说服力。
My favorite, they say variations of the same ideas, obviously they repeat the importance of repetition is persuasive.
但他们表达这一点最让我印象深刻的方式，是芒格说：如果你想要在某个领域出类拔萃，对这个领域的强烈兴趣是必不可少的。
But my favorite way that they ever said this is Munger said, Intense interest in any subject is indispensable if you're going to excel in it.
事实上，有一位名叫纳瓦尔·拉克希曼的人说过一句非常精彩的话，完美呼应了巴菲特和芒格在这里所表达的观点。
In fact, there's a great quote from this guy named Naval Robicant that really echoes a lot of Buffett and Munger's ideas what they're saying about here.
尤其是在无限杠杆的时代，我认为这个观点的重要性变得更加突出。
And especially in the age of infinite leverage, how important I think that idea only becomes more important.
这绝对是我在人生和事业上所押注的核心理念。
It's definitely something I'm betting my life and career on.
但纳瓦尔说，如果你不是百分之百投入，那么另一个百分之百投入的人就会超越你。
But Naval said, if you're not a 100% into it, somebody else who is a 100% into it will outperform you.
他们不仅仅会略微超越你。
And they won't just outperform you by a little bit.
他们会大幅超越你，因为我们现在所处的是思想的领域。
They'll outperform you by a lot because now we're operating in the domain of ideas.
复利效应真正起作用，杠杆效应也真正起作用。
Compound interest really applies, and leverage really applies.
所以我觉得这极其重要。
So think it's really important.
再说一遍，如果你享受你正在做的事情，你得到的结果会比每天早上咬牙切齿地去上班好得多。
Again, if you enjoy what you're doing, you're going get a better result than if you go to work with your teeth clenched every morning.
还有另一件非常重要的事，芒格谈到过这种优势。
There's another thing that's really important, and Munger talks about having the benefit.
他和巴菲特都受益于家庭中可以效仿的榜样。
Both him and Buffett had the benefit of role models that they could emulate inside of their family.
芒格说，我认为我们之所以受益，是因为我们来自一些令人钦佩的人所在的家庭，我们往往也会在家庭之外识别出其他令人钦佩的人。
Munger says, I think we're helped because we came from families where there were some admirable people and we tended to identify other admirable people outside of the family.
所以在家庭内部，巴菲特经常重复一句格言，他强调选择正确榜样的重要性。
So inside the family, you know, there's a maxim that Buffett will repeat, and he talks about the importance of picking the right heroes.
在家庭内部，想想巴菲特与父亲的关系，他非常亲近父亲，称父亲为自己的英雄；芒格也非常亲近父亲，但他还提到他的祖父——芒格法官。
So inside the family, think of Buffett's relationship, the fact that, you know, he was very close with his father, called his father his hero, Munger was very close with his father, but he also talks about his grandfather, Judge Munger.
我认为对查理生活态度产生重大影响的一点是，他观察到，家人后来也常讲述故事，说芒格法官的明智判断和财务实力，帮助整个芒格家族度过了大萧条。
And one of the things that I think had a really big impact on the way Charlie conducted his life was the fact that he observed, and they were told stories of later on in family as well, that Judge Munger's sound judgment and then also financial strength really helped the Munger, the entire Munger clan survive the Great Depression.
他能够提供工作机会，也能救助一些家庭成员，芒格谈到他对祖父的钦佩时，你能感受到，他希望自己在家庭中也能扮演同样的角色。
He was able to provide jobs, he was able to bail out some family members, and Monger talked about just how, like, you get the sense of, when he talks about his admiration for his grandfather, that that's the role that he wanted to play inside of his own family as well.
另一个有趣的观点，而我在这里显然想做的是，因为这本质上是近500页芒格和巴菲特亲口所说的内容。
Another interesting idea, and what I obviously want to do here is because this is essentially 400, almost 500 pages of Munger and Buffett in their own words.
几乎没有任何其他评论或补充内容。
There's almost no other commentary or anything else.
所以我将直接快速梳理这些观点，因为这和我之前做的完全不同——我之前已经做了大约十期节目，都是关于巴菲特和芒格的传记。
So I'm just gonna rip through ideas, because this is very different from, you know, I've done what, 10 episodes, something like that, between all the biographies of Buffett and Munger.
所以我想在这里逐个快速呈现一个又一个观点。
And so what I wanna do here is just rip through idea, after idea, after idea.
因为我认为，巴菲特和芒格最令人钦佩的技能之一，就是他们能够创造一些短语，让他们的想法既容易理解，又令人难忘，而且他们还通过讲述简短的小故事来实现这一点。
Because one of the, I think, really skills, the most admirable skills that Buffett and Munger both have, is they may, they're able to coin phrases that make their ideas, one, easy to understand, and two, memorable, and they do, they also do this by telling short little stories.
所以我将快速梳理大约一百个我觉得最有趣的观点。
So it's gonna rip through, you know, maybe a 100 different ideas that I found most interesting.
尽管到目前为止我已经读过几乎所有能找到的关于芒格和巴菲特的书，但他们用不同的方式来描述相同的观点。
And even though I've read almost every book that I've found on Munger Buffett so far, they use different ways to describe the same ideas.
所以在本书中，这些观点对我来说其实是全新的——比如后来查理提到，你应该尽可能多地研究商业史，应该阅读你能找到的每一本传记。
So they were actually new to me in this book, where later on, Charlie, you know, talk about the fact that you should study as much business history as possible, that you should be reading, you know, every biography you can get your hands on.
芒格读过的传记比我还多。
Munger's read more biographies than I have.
他们提到这一点的原因之一是，芒格以一种不同的方式——至少对我来说是新的方式——表示：你应该选择一个极端的例子，然后问这里到底发生了什么。
One of the reasons they mentioned this is because Munger states this in a different way, or at least a way that's new to me, he says you need to you should pick an extreme example and ask what the hell happened here.
所以这是他们反复强调的一点。
So that's something that they repeat over and over again.
这就是一个例子。
This is an example of this.
沃伦说，我在学习商业知识方面，很大程度上要感谢查理。
Warren says, I owe a great deal to Charlie in terms of learning a lot about businesses.
我也花了一生的时间观察企业，探究为什么有些成功，有些失败。
I've also spent a life time looking at businesses, seeing why some work and why some don't.
正如瑜伽·贝拉所说：‘你只要多观察，就能看到很多东西。’
As Yogi Berra said, You can see a lot just by observing.
这基本上就是查理和我长期以来一直在做的事情。
That's pretty much what Charlie and I have been doing for a very long time.
他们谈到，支配世界的不是贪婪，而是嫉妒。
They talk about the fact that greed doesn't run the world, that envy does.
要克服嫉妒，第一，你必须治愈自己；第二，你应当渴望配得上任何降临在你身上的成功。
And the one way to, one, you have to cure yourself of envy and two, you should want to have, you want, you should want to deserve any success that comes your way.
同样，这一点源自他们从家人那里学到的东西。
And again, this comes from something they learned from a family member.
因此，查理·芒格告诉我们，你真的应该塑造自己，成为一个配得上所获成就的人。
So Charlie Munger is telling us that you really should build yourself into a person that deserves what you get.
于是查理说，我有一位伟大的祖父。
And so Charlie says, I had a great grandfather.
他去世时，牧师在追悼会上说：没有人嫉妒这位男子的成功，因为他赢得公正，使用明智。
When he died, the preacher gave the talk and he said, None envied this man's success so fairly won and wisely used.
这是一个非常简单的理念。
That is a very simple idea.
我们希望别人认为，我们的成功是赢得公正、使用明智的。
We want to have people think of us as having won fairly and used wisely.
然后，这里还有一个我特别喜欢的想法。
And then here's another idea that I absolutely love.
如果你真的留心观察，就能在平行行业中发现机会。
That if you're actually paying attention, right, you can spot opportunities in parallel industries.
他们谈到，我们竟然完全错过了谷歌，他们怎么会这么说呢？
And so they were talking about, I cannot believe how we absolutely missed Google and why would they, like, why would they even say that?
因为他们在GEICO使用了谷歌的广告，而这些广告是他们能找到的最有效的广告，后来他们意识到，这些广告对谷歌来说几乎没有任何成本。
Because they were using Google's ads at GEICO, and it was the the most effective ads that they could possibly find, and then they realized, hey, these ads cost Google almost nothing.
这就是芒格所说的话。
So this is what Munger says.
我真觉得自己像个傻瓜，没能更早地认识到谷歌在广告上的潜力。
I feel like a horse's ass for not identifying Google better and more on ads.
我们其实有一些洞察，因为我们当时在GEICO使用谷歌广告，并看到了实际效果。
We had some insights because we were using Google Ads at GEICO and we were seeing the results produced.
我们每点击一次支付10美元，而对谷歌来说，这个点击的边际成本几乎是零，而且我们看到这些广告确实对我们有效。
We were paying $10 a click for something that had a marginal cost to Google of exactly zero And we saw that the ads were working for us.
我们在GEICO亲眼见证了谷歌广告的效果有多好，却只是坐在那儿无所作为。
We could see at GEICO how well Google advertising worked, and we just sat there sucking our thumbs.
当我想到这一点时，我并没有想到沃伦、查理、GEICO或谷歌。
So when I, when I thought of that, I didn't think of Warren or Charlie or or or GEICO or Google.
我记得有个人叫杰·古尔德，我对他产生了些许痴迷，因为我总是对那些登顶行业巅峰、备受敬仰的人感到着迷。
I remember so there's this guy named Jay Gold, who I became slightly obsessed with, because I'm always fascinated by, you know, people that reach the top of the profession, who they admire.
有一次，洛克菲勒被问到：‘你认识的最伟大的商人是谁？’
And so Rockefeller was asked one time, like, who's the greatest businessman you know?
他毫不犹豫地回答：‘杰·古尔德。’
And he said without hesitation, Jay Gold.
科尼利厄斯·范德比尔特，当时美国最富有的人，曾在七十年代说，年仅三十多岁的杰·古尔德是美国最聪明的人。
Cornelius Vanderbilt, he was the richest man in America, was in the seventies, he said that Jay Gould, who was in his thirties at the time, was the smartest man in America.
于是我读了很多关于杰·古尔德的传记，当时他正在铁路行业赚取巨额财富。
So I read a bunch of biographies of Jay Gould, and Jay was Jay was making a ton of money in the railroad industry at the time.
通过关注铁路行业及其周边发生的事情，他实际上发现了一个巨大的商机——电报行业。
And by paying attention to what was happening in the railroad or next to the railroads, he actually spotted a massive opportunity, and that was in the telegraph industry.
所以我想读一下我做的关于杰·古尔德这一集的 transcripts。
So I want to read from this transcript of this episode on Jay Gold I did.
所以它说，杰对电报业务非常感兴趣。
So it says, Jay was keenly interested in the telegraph business.
当时电报和铁路是相辅相成的，因为电报公司沿着铁路轨道架设线路，而这些铁路轨道正是他拥有的。
Now telegraphs went hand in hand with railroading because telegraph companies strung their lines alongside the railroad tracks, the railroad tracks that he owned.
于是他开始研究当时垄断电报行业的公司——西联汇款。
So he started looking into this monopoly, the telegraph monopoly of the day, which was Western Union.
杰难以相信他们赚了这么多钱。
Jay could not believe how much money they made.
西联汇款简直就是一台印钞机。
Western Union was a money machine.
杰非常渴望得到它。
Jay coveted it.
他说，我宁愿当西联汇款的总裁，也不愿当美国总统。
He said, I'd rather be the president of Western Union than the president of The United States.
我非常喜欢这个想法。
So I absolutely love that idea.
你可以发现那些与你当前所处行业并行发展的产业中的机会。
You can spot an opportunity in these industries that are running parallel to the one that you're already operating in.
这是沃伦·巴菲特的一句名言，但也绝对是查理·芒格会反复提到的话。
This is a great line from Warren Buffett, but could definitely be something that Charlie Munger says over and over again.
他说，这个世界 overwhelmingly 短期导向。
He says, The world is overwhelmingly short term focused.
我的朋友何南，Altos Ventures 的创始人，让我注意到了他发的这条推文，我觉得非常有趣。
So my friend Ho Nam, who's the founder of Altos Ventures, he made me aware of this tweet that he wrote, and I thought it was really interesting.
他正在读一本书，书里引用了名叫安迪·泰勒的人的一句话。
He was reading this book, and in the book, there's this quote by this guy named Andy Taylor.
安迪·泰勒实际上是接手了企业租车公司的人，他把公司的营收从8000万美元增长到了240亿美元。
So Andy Taylor's actually one that took over Enterprise Rent A Car, and he grew it from 78,000,000 in revenue to 24,000,000,000 in revenue.
有人问他：是什么让你做到了这一点？
And he was asked, like, what allowed you to do that?
他用一个词回答了：专注。
And he replied with one word, focus.
他继续说：我不是房间里最聪明的人，但我拥有大多数人无法达到的专注能力，而且我能长时间保持专注。
He continues, I'm not the smartest person in the room, but I have the ability to focus at a level that most people can't, and I can focus for very long periods of time.
他在这个事业上工作了三十八年。
He worked on that business for thirty eight years.
他继续说：我从未对这种专注感到厌倦。
He continues, I never tired of that focus.
我从未对购车感到厌倦。
I never tired of buying cars.
我从未对租车感到厌倦。
I never tired of renting cars.
我从未对服务感到厌倦。
I never tired of service.
我从不感到无聊。
I don't get bored.
大多数首席执行官都没有足够的专注力，去将一生中的四十年时间反复投入到同一件事上，并且做到极致。
Most CEOs don't have the attention span to dedicate four decades of their life to doing the same thing over and over and over again and doing it really, really well.
所以，回到巴菲特的那句话，这个世界 overwhelmingly 是短期导向的。
And so obviously going back to the Buffett quote, the world is overwhelmingly short term focus.
如果你想获得优势，就反其道而行之，做和世界相反的事。
Well, you want an edge, you just do the opposite of what the world does.
现在，我要一遍又一遍地重复这句话，因为这可能是我最喜欢的，也是书中我最钟爱的一句话。
Now, I'm going to repeat this over and over again, because it's probably my favorite, it is my favorite line in the book.
你要选一个极端的例子，然后问：这里到底发生了什么？
Know, you pick an extreme example and ask, What the hell happened here?
他们之所以不断这样做，是因为芒格和巴菲特脑子里都装满了商业历史的知识，他们总是引用自己掌握的理念，并通过故事向你和我解释这些理念，通常是以某个创始人或某家公司的故事为载体。
So they're constantly, because, you know, Munger and Buffett both have this encyclopedic knowledge of business history in their heads, they're constantly referencing ideas they have, and they explain the idea to you and I through stories, and usually through the stories of an individual founder or an individual company.
因此，这里有一个例子，说明了投资并尽可能与有才华的狂热者合作的重要性。
And so here's an example of the importance of investing in, and partnering if you can, with talented fanatics.
这是芒格。
This is Munger.
我总是引用国家现金出纳机公司的早期历史。
I always cite the early history of National Cash Register.
它是由一位狂热者创立的，他买下了所有专利，拥有最优秀的销售团队和最佳的生产计划。
It was created by a fanatic who bought all the patents, had the best sales force, and had the best production plans.
他是一位非常聪明的人，对收银机业务充满热情且全心投入。
He was a very intelligent man and passionately dedicated to the cash register business.
在收银机发明之际，他的出现简直是天赐良机。
And it was a godsend to retelling when cash registers were invented.
想想看。
Think about that.
曾经有一段时间，你知道，盗窃行为——我认为除了组织销售和记录账目之外，收银机还大幅减少了员工在收银台偷钱的情况。
There was a time where, you know, the amount of theft, I think the primary, in addition to like organizing your sales and keeping track of it, but I think it drastically reduced the amount of theft that would happen at the actual cash register for your employees stealing from you, in other words.
如果你读过约翰·亨利·帕特森撰写的年度报告，他是国家现金出纳机公司的CEO，任何傻子都能看出，这是一位才华横溢的狂热者，且恰好处于有利位置，因此投资决策显而易见。
If you read an annual report prepared by John Henry Patterson, who he's describing, who was the CEO of National Cash Register, any idiot could see that this was a talented fanatic who was very favorably located and therefore the investment decision was easy.
我们手头有1904年的NCR年度报告。
We have the NCR Annual Report from 1904.
帕特森不仅告诉你他的收银机价值是售价的二十倍，还直言如果你敢跟他竞争，那你就是个傻瓜。
Patterson not only tells you why his cash register is worth to people about 20 times what he's selling it for, but he also tells you that you're an idiot if you want to go into competition with him.
另一个通过故事精彩阐述的观点是：如果你无法信任自己的判断，那么这一切都无从谈起。
Another idea that's explained beautifully with a story that none of this works if you cannot trust your own judgment.
所以巴菲特说，你不能指望别人替你做这些事。
So Buffett says, You can't expect anybody else to do this.
这一切都要靠你自己。
For you.
没人会主动告诉你那些绝佳的小投资机会。
People are not going to tell you about wonderful little investments.
你必须自己去发现它们。
You have to find them yourself.
当我1951年1月第一次造访GEICO时，离开后，那一年剩下的时间里，我跑去拜访了顶尖的保险分析师。
When I first visited GEICO in January 1951, I left, and then the rest of the year I went down and would visit leading insurance analysts.
我以为自己发现了一个了不起的宝贝。
I thought I'd discovered this wonderful thing.
所以我去拜访了那些专门研究保险股票的投资机构，想了解他们的看法。
So I went to see these great investment houses that specialize in insurance stocks, and I wanted to know what their opinion was.
他们告诉我，我根本不懂自己在说什么。
And they told me that I didn't know what I was talking about.
你不能四处寻找别人来认同你。
You can't look around for people to agree with you.
你也不能指望别人甚至明白你在说什么。
You can't look around for people to even know what you're talking about.
你必须自己独立思考。
You have to think for yourself.
能够脱离群体、保持独立判断，是一种你需要具备的品质。
An ability to detach yourself from the crowd is a quality that you need.
我给自己留下的另一条笔记，一个我极其喜爱的观点。
Another note that I left myself and really an idea that I absolutely love.
总有一些事情让我感到震惊，我认为这得益于我阅读传记和广泛研究历史。
There's just always, it's it's always shocking to me, and this I think I got obviously the benefit of reading biographies and studying history in general.
机会总是藏在显而易见的地方。
There's just always opportunity hiding in plain sight.
所以想想最近几周的情况。
So think about the last, like, I think, last few weeks.
杰里·琼斯是第76个人。
So, Jerry Jones was the seventy sixth person.
对吧？
Right?
在杰里·琼斯之前，有75个人在购买达拉斯牛仔队时都说了不。
75 other people before buying the Dallas Cowboys said no.
对吧？
Right?
杰里·琼斯是第76个，他答应了，花了1.4亿美元，如今这笔投资价值100亿美元，还不包括他拥有球队这三十年来衍生出的其他所有收益和机会。
Jerry Jones was the seventy sixth, and he said yes, he paid 140,000,000 today, that's worth $10,000,000,000 not including all the money, know, and opportunities that came from that, in the three decades that he's owned the team.
在我做关于莱昂·赫斯的那期节目前一周，情况也是一样。
The week before I did the episode on Leon Hess, same thing.
literally，就像莱昂·赫斯一样，那个家族企业最终以530亿美元的价格出售，而这一切始于莱昂·赫斯说：‘你们这些炼油商扔掉的这种产品，我要拿它来做生意。’
Literally, like Leon Hess, that family company just sold for like $53,000,000,000 and it starts with Leon Hess saying, Hey, that product that you as a refiner is throwing away, I'm going to make a business out of that.
就像萨姆·扎穆里建立他的香蕉帝国一样。
In the same way that Sam Zamuri built his banana empire.
对吧？
Right?
如果我没记错的话，他成了路易斯安那州最富有的人。
Became the richest person in Louisiana, if I'm not mistaken.
他当时说：‘你们因为两天内卖不掉这些香蕉就扔掉它们。’
From saying, hey, you're throwing away those bananas because you can't sell them in two days.
我可以在两天内把它们卖出去。
I'll just sell them in two days.
然后自然地从这一点发展出了一门生意。
And then obviously building a business from that.
但令人震惊的是，如此多的机会就藏在显而易见的地方。
But it's shocking the amount of opportunity that's hiding in plain sight.
沃伦指出，他所投资的许多项目，包括他一些最大的成功案例，其信息都是公开可得的。
And Warren makes the point where a lot of the things that he's invested in, some of his biggest wins, they were publicly available information.
所以他谈到一个例子，这是他在三十年前说的，但他提到：可口可乐有什么复杂的？它的税前利润达到30亿美元，比几年前更好了，这完全归功于可口可乐。
And so he's talking about one, this is, know, he said this thirty years ago, but he goes, what is complicated about Coca Cola where $3,000,000,000 pre tax better off than a few years ago because of Coca Cola.
关于这个产品、它的分销系统、财务状况，或者任何其他方面，我所知道的，成千上万甚至数百万人其实早就知道了。
There's nothing I know about the product, its distribution system, its finances, or anything really that hundreds of thousands or millions of people don't already know.
但他们就是没有采取任何行动。
They just didn't do anything about it.
另一个非常重要的观点，我见过几次，约翰·洛克菲勒显然是第一个例子，约翰·马龙是另一个例子，但类似的情况在你我讨论过的众多传记中屡见不鲜。
And then another idea that think is very important, and I've seen it a few times, John Rockefeller is obviously the first example of this, John Malone is another example of this, but there's been tons of examples that from the biographies that you and I talk about.
这个观点是，你可以真正去深入了解某个行业，比任何人都更透彻。
This idea that you can, you can go and actually know more about an industry than anybody else.
沃伦谈到他的一些尽职调查工作，实际上，他并不是只坐在奥马哈的办公室里，尤其是在他职业生涯早期。
And Warren's talking about some of the due diligence and really like he went out, he wasn't just sitting in his office in Omaha, especially in his early career.
他走出去，主动去挖掘信息。
He went out and tried to dig for information.
我喜欢这个想法：嘿，我认为在这个案例中，煤炭行业存在机会。
And I like this idea of saying, Hey, I'm going to, I think there's an opportunity in this case, the industry is coal.
我认为这个行业中存在机会。
I think there's opportunity in this industry.
所以我要去了解这个行业里的每一家主要公司。
So I'm going to learn about every single major company in this industry.
我提到洛克菲勒是因为在早期的炼油行业，他有一个叫做‘秘密盟友’的策略。
The reason I brought up Rockefeller about this is because in the early refining industry, he had this thing called secret allies.
他确实没有坐在克利夫兰的办公室里，后来当他们搬到纽约时，他亲自去拜访了每一位其他的炼油商。
And what he'd went, he literally, and the same thing, he wasn't sitting in his office in Cleveland, and then later on when they moved to New York, he went and met every single other oil refiner.
他们最终成立了类似‘美国炼油协会’这样的组织来联合起来。
They wind up creating, I think it's called like the Refinery Association of America, something like that, to band together.
然后他会查看每一位竞争对手的账本。
And then he would see the books of every single one of his competitors.
而且，这还给了他诸多优势。
And two, they gave him a bunch of advantages.
显然，他能判断出，这个人是个重要的玩家。
Obviously one, he could figure out, okay, this guy's a serious player.
他确实经营着一家不错的公司。
He's actually running a good business.
这个人太差劲了。
This guy sucks.
他迟早要破产。
He's gonna go out of business.
他显然知道哪些公司是他想收购的。
And he obviously knew which ones he wanted to buy from this.
所以我觉得这是一个非常有趣的想法。
So I think it's a really interesting idea.
这是巴菲特版本的这种做法。
This is Buffett's version of that.
当我23岁的时候，我对煤炭行业产生了兴趣。
When I was 23 years old, I got interested in the coal business.
我会去拜访八到十家煤炭公司的首席执行官。
I would go out and see the CEOs of eight or 10 coal companies.
我会问他们很多问题，但每次我都会在最后问两个问题。
I'd ask them a lot of questions, But there were two questions I'd always ask at the end.
如果他们必须把所有钱都投到除自己公司之外的另一家煤炭公司，并离开十年，他们会选哪家？为什么？
If they had to put all of their money into any other coal company except their own and go away for ten years, which one would it be and why?
第二个问题是，如果他们必须做空等量的某一家煤炭公司，他们会选哪家？为什么？
Then the second question, if they had to sell short in the equivalent amount, one coal company, which would it be and why?
这听起来很像洛克菲勒的例子。
It sounds a lot like the Rockefeller example.
就像是，哦，我看了你们的账本，了解了这家公司的运营有多出色，你们是我最强大的竞争对手。
It's like, Oh, I see your books, I see how well this company is run, you are my most formidable competitor.
在很多情况下，这会演变成他收购对方，然后对方成为他的合伙人，因为他会给他们标准石油公司的股票。
Or in many cases, you know, turns into one of his, like he'd buy and they'd turn into partners because he'd get, he'd give them the standard oil stock.
所以这说明，从经济角度来看，我对煤炭公司的了解可能比这些经理中的任何一个都更深入。
So it says, I would know more about the coal companies from an economic standpoint than any one of those managers probably would.
我还要再提一下洛克菲勒，因为巴菲特和芒格的思维方式与洛克菲勒有很多相似之处。
I'm going to mention Rockefeller again, because there's a lot of similarities between the way Buffett and Munger think, and the way Rockefeller did.
当我去查理·芒格家与他共进晚餐时，他确实说他认为洛克菲勒是有史以来最伟大的企业家。
When I went to Charlie Munger's house and got to have dinner with him, he actually said that he thought Rockefeller was the greatest entrepreneur of all time.
所以巴菲特说，我们像他一样，非常重视拥有充足的现金储备。
So Buffett says, We do he talks about the importance of having a fortress of cash.
我们喜欢手握大量资金，以便能够迅速而大规模地行动。
We do like having a lot of money to be able to operate very fast and very big.
我们知道这样的机会不会经常出现。
We know we won't get those opportunities frequently.
当然，在未来二三十年里，会有两三次机会像下金雨一样，你只需要走出去就行。
Certainly, in the next twenty or thirty years, there'll be two or three times when it'll be raining gold and all you have to do is go outside.
所以书中后面，临近结尾时，芒格和巴菲特推荐了一堆书，芒格特别推荐阅读罗恩·彻诺所著的洛克菲勒传记《巨人的时代》。
So later in the book, at the very end, Munger gives Munger and Buffett give a bunch of book recommendations, and Munger heavily recommends reading Titan, the biography of Rockefeller written by Ron Chernow.
听听这个，这和沃伦刚才说的非常相似，你知道的，未来二三十年里会有两三次机会像下金雨一样，你只需要走出去就行。
And listen to this, this is very similar to what Warren was just saying, you know, two or three times it'll be raining gold and all you have to do is go outside.
书中写道，现在我们来读《巨人的时代》。
It says, it is this is now reading from Titan.
如果不认识到洛克菲勒始终带着充足的现金投入战斗，就无法理解他令人惊叹的崛起。
It is impossible to comprehend to comprehend Rockefeller's breathtaking ascent without realizing that he was always that he always moved into battle backed by abundant cash.
无论是在经济低迷时坚持度过，还是在繁荣时乘势而上，他始终保留着丰厚的储备，仅仅因为他的资金库更雄厚，就在许多竞标中胜出。
Whether riding out downturns or coasting on booms, he kept plentiful reserves and won many bidding contests simply because his war chest was deeper.
保持充足的现金储备，是他不断收购竞争对手和其他炼油商的方式。
Keeping a fortress of cash is how he kept buying out his competitors and other refiners.
他还提出了另一个观点：重要的不是你获取信息的速度，而是信息的质量。
And then he has another observation that it's not the speed at which you get the information, it's actually the quality.
也就是说，你最应该优先关注的是你所获得信息的质量。
Like, you actually getting your top priority should be the quality of the information that you get.
他在1994年就说了这番话。
He's saying this in 1994.
想象一下，当他发表这番评论时的世界，与今天相比，存在着巨大的差异，而这个问题在如今更加突出。
Imagine like the, I mean, the vast difference between, you know, the world when when he's making this comment, that this problem is so much more pronounced now.
再说一次，我个人认为，人们的注意力持续时间正在变得越来越短。
And again, my my own personal opinion on this is that attention spans just keep getting shorter and shorter and shorter.
所以，如果你真的有能力长时间专注于某件事，我认为这种优势在未来会变得越来越有价值。
So if you do have the ability to focus on something for a very long time, I think that advantage just keeps getting more and more value in the future.
但沃伦说，信息的传播速度对我们来说其实没有任何影响。
But Warren says, the speed of information really doesn't make any difference to us.
真正有价值的是对信息的处理，以及最终做出判断。
It's the processing and finally coming to some judgment that has some utility.
而这一切都与快速获取信息无关。
And none of that involves anything to do with quick information.
关键在于获得优质的信息。
It involves getting good information.
我非常欣赏另一个观点，那就是建立一个适合自己天性的企业的重要性。
Another idea that I absolutely love is the importance of building a business that is natural to you.
我读过迈克尔·戴尔的两本自传。
I have I read both of Michael Dell's autobiographies.
它们非常出色。
They're excellent.
我很快就会制作关于它们的节目。
I'm going make episodes on them soon.
在第二本自传中，他有一个我特别喜欢的观点，那就是戴尔的经营理念完全符合他希望如何度过自己时间的方式。
And in the second autobiography, one of my favorite ideas that he had was, you know, this idea of Dell was completely natural to how he wanted to spend his time.
他实际上从中获得了能量。
And he actually got energy.
所以，当他的组织中其他人感到精疲力尽时，迈克尔·戴尔却能持续下去，因为他觉得自己设计的这家公司完全契合了他想如何度过时间的方式。
So where other people in his organization would burn out, Michael Dell was able to keep going because it's like this I designed a business that is completely natural to how I want to spend my time.
沃伦·巴菲特谈到，经营企业有多种不同的方式。
And so Warren Buffett is talking about, you know, there's there's a different bunch of different ways to run your business.
他谈到，投资也有多种不同的方法。
He was talking about there's a bunch of different ways to invest.
他在比较和对比自己与彼得·林奇的投资方式。
He was he was comparing and contrasting the way he wants to invest with Peter Lynch.
我会跳过大部分内容，但我只想直接讲重点。
And I'll skip over most of the parts, but I just want to get to the punchline.
他说，在投资方面，通往成功的路不止一条。
He says, I've said on investing, there's more than one way to get to heaven.
如果我试着用彼得的方式去做，我不会做得那么好。
I would not do as well if I tried to do it the way Peter does it.
而他如果试着完全按我的方式去做，也未必会做得更好。
And he probably would not do as well if he tried to do it exactly the way I do it.
所以，建立一个完全契合你自身、符合你如何安排时间的商业模式，这种理念是什么？你真正的公司经营理念又是什么？
So that idea of building a business is completely natural to you and how you want to spend your time, and how you want to actually organize, like what is your actual company building philosophy?
你真正想做什么？
What do you want to do?
我认为这是你应该花大量时间去思考，然后长期不断打磨的事情。
I think it's something you should, you know, spend a lot of time thinking about and then of course refining over a long period of time.
芒格，我最喜欢这本书的一点是，他讲了很多精彩的故事，这些故事本身就非常清晰且令人难忘。
Munger, one of my favorite things about this book is there's just great, you know, stories that Munger tells that really are self explanatory and memorable.
这里有一个例子：伯克希尔有一位重要的股东，其父亲最初积累了这部分股份。
And here's one: Berkshire has a substantial shareholder whose father accumulated the original position.
父亲去世后，留下了一笔庞大的遗产。
And when he died he left a very large estate.
其中几乎全部资产都集中在两只证券上：伯克希尔和另一家杰出公司。
Practically all of it was in two securities: Berkshire and one other outstanding company.
一家银行担任联席受托人，银行职员说：‘你必须分散投资。’
A bank was a co trustee, and the bank officer said, You've got to diversify this.
这是一笔非常庞大的遗产。
It was a very large estate.
这位年轻人说：‘你知道吗？如果我父亲跟你有同样的想法，他可能早就当上银行的信托官，而不是留下这么一大笔遗产了。’
And the young man said, Well, you know, if my father believed the way you do, he might have been a trust officer in a bank instead of leaving this large estate.
这体现了他们反复强调的主题：他们的建议是，你真正应该做的是找到或打造一家卓越的企业，一旦做到，你的整个家族几代人都会富裕。
And this goes with their reoccurring theme, the advice they have is like, You really should be trying to find a wonderful business or build a wonderful business, and if you do that, you'll have your entire family for generations will be wealthy.
因此他们说，如果你看看美国财富是如何积累起来的，你会发现，都是由那些发现了卓越企业的人创造的。
And so they said, if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country, they were built by someone who identified a wonderful business.
可口可乐是个很好的例子。
Coca Cola is a great example.
世界上没有五十个可口可乐。
There aren't 50 Coca Colas.
一个真正出色的企业在长期来看，能很好地抵御经济波动和竞争。
A really wonderful business is very well protected against the vicitudes of the economy over time and competition.
我们谈论的是那些能够抵御有效竞争的企业。
We're talking about businesses that are resistant to effective competition.
所以当他们说，‘你看看这个国家的财富是怎么积累起来的’时，我立刻想到了这一点。
So when they're like, Hey, if you look at how the fortunes in this country were built, that that popped out into my mind.
对吧？
Right?
然后第二个想法是，我们说的是那些真正能抵御有效竞争的企业。
And then the second thought second thing, we're like, hey, we're talking about businesses that are really resistant to effective competition.
所以这两点接连快速出现。
So those two things coming one after another in short order.
我想到了迈克尔·布隆伯格。
I thought of Michael Bloomberg.
对吧？
Right?
有多少人说过，我打算打造一个击败布隆伯格的公司。
How many people have said, I I started a Bloomberg killer.
而这个人五十年后依然在印钞。
And the guy fifty years later is just still printing cash.
有趣的是布隆伯格的自传。
And what was fascinating is Bloomberg's autobiography.
我觉得这是《创始人》节目第228集，大概在那儿。
I think it's episode two twenty eight of Founders, somewhere in there.
这是我读过最喜爱的书之一，因为他的风格毫不掩饰地极端。
It's one of my favorite books I've ever read because, you know, he's unapologetically extreme.
但有趣的是，他获得了巨额财富，身处华尔街，却只是想：好吧，我接下来该做什么？
But what was fascinating is, you know, he had this huge windfall, and he's on Wall Street, and he's just like, okay, well, what am I gonna do?
那我的下一站是什么呢？
Like, what's my next act here?
他决定，书中有一处他详细向读者阐述了自己的决策过程，思考着接下来该做什么——显然，他接下来要做的就是创办彭博社。
And he decides, there's actually a line where he's talking the reader through his decision making process, figuring out, you know, what's the next thing I'm gonna do, which obviously is the next thing he's gonna do, is Bloomberg.
他意识到，实际上，这个国家大部分的财富并不是来自纯粹的投资，而是来自企业家。
And he realizes, like, actually most of the great wealth in the country was not through just pure investing, it's the entrepreneurs.
你知道，我特别喜欢尼克·斯利普说的那句话，这是我最喜欢的一句话之一。
You know, I love that line from Nick Sleep, one of my favorite lines ever.
他说，最伟大的投资者根本就不是投资者。
It's like, the greatest investors aren't investors at all.
他们是从未套现的企业家。
They're entrepreneurs who never sold.
你知道，彭博至今仍持有他公司的全部股份。
You know, Bloomberg still owns all of his company.
因此，彭博在自传中写道：尽管极少有巨额财富是通过投资获得的。
So Bloomberg writes in his autobiography, Although few of the great fortunes have been made in investing.
所以从约翰·D·洛克菲勒
So from John D.
到山姆·沃尔顿，再到比尔·盖茨，巨大的财富积累都源于创办拥有实际产品的公司，在现实世界中创造就业、创造价值并帮助他人。
Rockefeller to Sam Walton to Bill Gates, great financial success comes from starting businesses with concrete products in the real world, building jobs, creating value, and helping people.
因此，我认为彭博正是巴菲特和芒格在这里所表达观点的完美例证。
And so I think Bloomberg is a perfect example of what Buffett and Munger is saying here.
如果你看看这个国家的财富是如何积累的，它们都是由那些发现了一个绝佳商业机会的人创造的。
If you look at how fortunes were built in this country, they were built by someone who identified a wonderful business.
这是查理·芒格反复强调的一个观点。
Something Charlie Munger repeats over and over again.
这也是我时刻都在思考的一个理念。
And this is an idea that I think of all the time.
我所有决策都试图以此为依据，因为我从查理身上学到了这一点。
And I try to make all my decisions through this just because I learned from Charlie.
事实上，我刚刚和一位朋友通电话，他也在努力做决策。
In fact, I was on the phone with a friend of mine, and he was trying to make decisions too.
我当时就想，你得想想你的其他选择。
And I was like, you just gotta think of, like, your alternatives.
你应该把每一个决定都通过机会成本来衡量。
Like, you should be running every single decision through opportunity costs.
芒格说，所有聪明人都应该主要从机会成本的角度思考。
Munger says, All intelligent people should think primarily in terms of opportunity costs.
有一本很棒的书，我觉得是《创始人》第二百八十六期。
There's a great book, I think it's episode two eighty six of Founders.
这本书叫《我只想知道我会死在哪里，这样我就永远不会去那里》。
It's called All I Want to Know Is Where I'm Going to Die, So I'll Never Go There.
我觉得是《巴菲特和芒格：非同寻常的常识》之类的书名。
I think it's Buffett and Munger, Uncommon Common Sense, something like that.
我忘了具体的副标题，但这是我做过的最喜爱的几期之一。
Forgot the actual subtitle, but of it's my favorite episodes I've ever done.
如果你只能读一本关于巴菲特和芒格的书，那我会选这一本。
If you could only read one book on Buffett and Munger, that's the book I would read.
我想从那本书中引用芒格的一句话：人生中的决策都关乎机会成本，聪明的人会从个人机会成本的角度思考。
And I wanna pull a line out of that book that Munger says, Decisions in life are all about opportunity costs, and wise people think in terms of personal opportunity costs.
换句话说，真正重要的是你的其他选择。
In other words, it's your alternatives that matter.
我们所有的决策都是这样做出的。
That is how we make all of our decisions.
因此，将机会成本作为决策的筛选标准，我认为是最强大的理念之一。
So this idea of using opportunity costs as a filter to make decisions, I think is one of the most powerful ideas.
下一页的内容对我来说非常真实，它与机会成本息息相关。
This next page, this is real to me, this is related to opportunity costs.
查理·芒格。
Charlie Munger.
我们通常不喜欢小仓位。
We ordinarily don't like small positions.
巴菲特。
Buffett.
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我们喜欢重仓投入。
We like to go in heavy.
如果我们想通过股市投资一家企业，我们会投入大量资金。
If we wanna invest in a business through the stock market, we want to put a lot of money in.
我们不相信这种一点一点、分散投资的做法。
We do not believe in a little of this and a little of that.
巴菲特继续说：如果我们发现一个想投入五亿美元的项目，我们甚至会更高兴，如果能投入三四十亿美元。
Buffett continues, If we find an idea that we want to put $500,000,000 in, we probably would be even happier if we could put 3 or 4,000,000,000 in.
好的投资机会太稀少了，一旦找到，就不该吝啬投入。
Good ideas are too scarce to be parsimonious with once you find them.
芒格用一句话完美总结了这一整段内容，这正是他的风格：投资的全部秘诀在于找到那些安全且明智的、无需分散投资的地方。
And Munger perfectly summarizes this entire section in one sentence as he is prone to do, The whole secret of investment is to find places where it's safe and wise to not diversify.
再过几页，他们继续写道：查理和我，当我们研究一家企业时，总会把它与几十家其他企业进行对比。
A few pages later they continue this: Charlie and I, when we read about one business, we're always thinking of it against a screen of dozens of other businesses.
这完全是自动发生的。
It just happens automatically.
但这就像棒球球探在考虑一名球员与其他球员之间的对比。
But it's just like a scout in baseball thinking about one baseball player against an alternative.
你的球队人数是有限的。
You only have a given number on the squad.
一个人可能跑得快一点，另一个人可能打得更好一点，诸如此类。
One guy may be a little faster, one guy can maybe hit a little better, that sort of thing.
但你心里总是在以某种方式优先排序和选择。
But always in your mind, you are prioritizing and selecting in some manner.
我个人认为，应用这一点的最佳方式就是再次大量阅读。
My own feeling about the best way to apply that is to just read everything in sight again.
他们脑子里积累了丰富的商业历史知识。
So they have this historical business knowledge in their head.
我自己的说法，我很喜欢这个，就是查理·芒格的描述。
The way I would put it, I love this, is Charlie Munger's description.
他说这句话时已经95岁了，接下来我要读给你们听。
He's 95 when he says this is what I'm about to read to you.
这是查理·芒格对李录的评价。
And this is Charlie Munger on Li Lu.
芒格说，李录非同寻常。
And Munger says, Li Lu is not normal.
他是中国的沃伦·巴菲特。
He is the Chinese Warren Buffet.
他非常有才华。
He is very talented.
在九十五年里，我只把芒格家族的钱交托给一位外人来管理过一次。
In ninety five years, I have given Munger family money to an outsider to run once.
九十五年里只一次，那就是李录。
Once in ninety five years, and that is Li Lu.
他取得了巨大的成功。
And he has hit it out of the park.
这要求非常苛刻。
It is pretty picky.
但一旦我有了李录，如果拿他来做比较，记住用机会成本作为筛选标准，我还可能选谁呢？
But once I have Li Lu, if I am comparing to him, remember using opportunity cost as a filter, who else am I going to pick?
顺便说一句，这是一种很好的决策方式，我们就是这样做的。
By the way, that is a good way to make decisions and that is what we do.
如果我们有一件事可以做得更多，那我们就对任何不如这件事的事情都不感兴趣。
If we've got one thing we can do more of, we are not interested in anything that is not better than that.
这大大简化了生活。
That simplifies life a great deal.
因此，通过机会成本来提升你的决策能力，他们经常提到阅读历史的重要性与价值。
And so one way to refine your ability to to make decisions through opportunity costs, they're constantly talking about, you know, the importance and the value of reading history.
如果你从未看过一场棒球比赛，也从未见过任何统计数据，你就不会知道一个打击率0.300的球员是不是好球员。
If you never watched a baseball game and you never seen a statistic on it, you wouldn't know whether a 300 hitter was a good hitter or not.
你必须建立一种思维图景，作为你判断的参照基准。
You have to have some kind of mosaic there that you're thinking is implanted against.
如果你这么做，你对美国商业历史的发展就会有相当清晰的认识。
You'll have a pretty good idea of what happened over time in America in American business if you do so.
他说，我希望有这些材料，一直追溯到过去。
He says, I'd like to have that material going all the way back.
我会回去阅读上世纪三十年代关于特定公司的《财富》杂志文章。
I'll go back and read Fortune articles from the nineteen thirties on a specific company.
我喜欢了解很多历史背景，以便在脑海中理解企业是如何随着时间演变的。
I like a lot of historical background on things just to get it in my head how the business has evolved over time.
我不知道你能不能听到，但我一直在翻页，而他们说的都是同样的内容。
And I don't know if you can hear that, but I keep flipping pages and they keep saying the same stuff.
在决定是否要做某件事时，把它和你拥有的最佳机会进行比较。
When deciding whether to do something, compare it with the best opportunity you have.
下一页：我们所做的一切都回归到机会成本。
Next page: Everything we do comes back to opportunity costs.
有很多精彩的语句。
There's a bunch of great lines.
我认为这些内容中的大多数甚至不需要解释。
I don't think most of these even need explanation.
我们喜欢和那些对事业充满热情的人合作。
We love working with people who are just plain nuts about their business.
最好的做法是从别人的错误中学习。
The best thing to do is learn from the other guy's mistakes.
乔治·巴顿曾经说过，为国捐躯是一种荣耀。
George Patton used to say, It's an honor to die for your country.
确保这份荣耀属于别人。
Make sure the other guy gets the honor.
他们不断强调的一件事是保护自己免受风险，因为他们看到太多人因为滥用杠杆而破产，因此避免自我毁灭显然至关重要。
One thing they're constantly preaching to protect yourself against, they saw so many people go broke because they abused leverage, so avoiding the self destruction is obviously very important.
你需要重点保护自己，避免因市场的疯狂、价格波动而被击垮，而在我看来，最好的教学方式就是这些故事。
Big thing you want is to protect yourself against the insanity and market prices and volatility wiping you out, and the way they teach this, in my opinion, best way to teach this is these stories.
芒格说，我的一个孩子认识一个人，他有一栋价值二百五十万美元的房子和五百万元的证券，但他却无法仅靠证券的收益过上自己想要的舒适生活。
So Munger says, One of my children knew a man who had a two point five million dollars house and $5,000,000 worth of securities, but he couldn't live as comfortably as he liked on the income from his securities.
于是他养成了捡拾轻松钱财的习惯。
So he got in the habit of picking up easy money.
他持续卖出由账户担保的裸卖权。
He kept selling naked puts secured by his account.
随着时间推移，他既失去了那五百万美元的证券，也失去了那栋房子。
And in due time, he didn't have the $5,000,000 of securities and he didn't have the house.
现在他在一家餐厅工作。
And he now works in a restaurant.
巴菲特和芒格都反复强调的两种错误是：那些容易被忽视的错误，比如当你明明知道有绝佳机会时却不去买入，以及过早卖出。
Two things that Buffett and Munger both repeat is these mistakes that tend to be hidden, which is not buying when you know you have a great opportunity, and then selling too early.
所以芒格说，我们历史上最严重的错误都是遗漏型错误。
So Munger says, the mistakes that have been the most extreme in our history are mistakes of omission.
这些错误不会体现在我们的财务数字中，而是体现在机会成本上。
They do not show up in our figures, They show up in our opportunity costs.
换句话说，我们有机会，几乎就要行动了，但最终却没有。
In other words, we have an opportunity and we almost do it, but they don't.
他给我们举了一个例子，这个错误让他个人损失了两亿美元。
And so he gives us an example of this that cost him $200,000,000 personally.
我年轻的时候，有人让我买300股贝尔里奇石油公司的股票。
When I was younger, I was offered 300 shares of Bellridge Oil.
任何傻瓜都能看出，这笔投资不可能亏钱，却有很大机会赚钱，所以我买了。
Any idiot could have told you there's no possibility of losing money and a large possibility of making money, so I bought it.
三天后，那人给我打电话，想再卖给我1500股。
The guy calls me back three days later and offered me 1,500 more shares.
但这次，因为他资金有限，我必须卖掉一些别的东西才能买下这些该死的贝尔里奇股票。
But this time, because he was limited on money, I had to sell something to buy the damn BellRidge.
没多买些股票的这个错误，让我损失了两亿美元。另一个以幽默方式讲述的观点是，他们刻意追求精简的总部、低成本结构，人员配置极度精简。
That mistake of not buying more shares has cost me $200,000,000 Another idea told in a funny way is this idea that, you know, they prioritize having essentially like a lean headquarters, low cost structure, really deliberately understaffed.
所以芒格说，曾经有人在某次收购案中传唤我们的人员编制文件。
And so Munger says, somebody once subpoenaed our staffing papers on some acquisition.
我们不仅没有人员编制文件，连员工都没有。
Not only did we not have any staffing papers, we didn't have any staff.
这让我想起，乔布斯重返苹果时，正卷入一场诉讼。
And so that reminded me, Steve Jobs, when he came back to Apple, was going through some kind of lawsuit.
我想可能是和谷歌有关吧。
Think it was with probably, like, with Google.
也可能是和微软有关。
Might have been with Microsoft.
但他们调取了所有员工的记录。
But they subpoenaed all of, like, the the employee records.
其中一名员工正在和苹果的一名律师交谈，对方问：‘你们的员工档案在哪里？’
And one of the employees is talking with one of Apple's lawyers, and they're like, Where's your employee file?
于是他打开一个文件，里面只有一张纸。
And so he opens a file, it's like one piece of paper.
那人就去找史蒂夫，问：‘我们的年度评估在哪里？’
And so the guy goes to Steve and he's just like, Where's our annual reviews?
就是说，那些东西都去哪儿了？
Like, where's all this stuff?
他回答：‘我真不明白，我为什么要给你年度评估？’
He's like, I don't believe like, why would I give you an annual review?
这太荒谬了，我一直在给你反馈。
It's ridiculous, I give you feedback all the time.
所以这个想法是，真正质疑这些决策，比如你真的需要这个流程吗？
And so this idea is like, really question the decisions, like do you need this process?
你真的需要这个人吗？
Do you need this person?
我们真的有必要做这件事吗？
Do we actually need to be doing this?
史蒂夫觉得年度评估是最愚蠢的事，因为我就在不断给你反馈。
Steve thought annual reviews was the dumbest thing ever, because like, I'm giving you feedback constantly.
我为什么要等12个月，一年才给你一次反馈？
Why would I wait for 12 you know, once a year to give you feedback?
这完全说不通。
It didn't make any sense.
但我喜欢这个想法。
But I love this idea.
当时我们根本没有人员编制文件，也没有任何员工。
It's like, we didn't have any staffing papers, and we didn't have any staff.
再说一遍，我就是喜欢这一切的简洁性。
Just again, like, I just love the the simplicity to all this.
巴菲特说，当我们1986年收购斯科特和费尔策公司时，它已经被第一波士顿公司卖给了三十多位合伙人。
Buffett says, when we bought the Scott and Feltzer company in 1986, it had been shot by First Boston to more than 30 partners.
我在报纸上读到了这件事。
I read about it in the paper.
于是我给拉尔夫·谢亚写了一封信。
So I sent a letter to Ralph Shea.
我从未见过或联系过这个人，但我心想，赌一把21美分——或者当时一张平信邮票的价格吧。
I had never met or talked to the guy, but I figured I'd gamble 21¢ or whatever a first class stamp cost.
我说，我们愿意以每股60美元的价格收购。
And I said, we'll pay $60 a share.
如果你认同这个想法，周日来芝加哥见我吧。
If you like this idea, I'll meet you in Chicago on Sunday.
如果你不喜欢这个想法，就把这封信撕掉。
And if you don't like the idea, tear up this letter.
拉尔夫见了我，我们达成了交易，以每股60美元的价格支付。
Ralph met me, and we made the deal, and we paid $60 per share.
实际上有一位叫吉姆的人，我很久以前读过他的传记，沃伦确实收购了他的公司。
So there's actually a guy named Jim I read his biography a long time ago, and Warren actually buys his company.
在吉姆·克莱顿的自传中，他讲述了与沃伦·巴菲特谈判的经历。
And in Jim Clayton's autobiography, he talks about what it was like to negotiate with Warren Buffett.
到那时，吉姆·克莱顿已经让他的儿子凯文担任克莱顿家居的首席执行官。
And by this time, Jim Clayton had let his son Kevin become the CEO of Clayton Homes.
因此，书中提到巴菲特告诉克莱顿家居的首席执行官，他想收购这家公司，愿意以每股12.5美元的价格收购。
So it says Buffett told Clayton, the CEO of Clayton Homes, he wanted to buy the company and would pay $12.5 a share.
凯文表示，他的董事会会考虑每股17美元的报价。
Kevin said that his board would give consideration to an offer of $17 per share.
巴菲特回应后，凯文回复说董事会有兴趣考虑每股15美元的价格。
Buffer responds +1 Kevin replied the board was interested in considering $15 per share.
巴菲特回应12.5美元，凯文表示董事会愿意接受每股13.5美元。
Buffett responded with $12.5 Kevin said the board will accept $13.5 per share.
巴菲特再次提出12.5美元，然后抛出了这个决定性的话。
Buffett responded with $12.5 and then hit him with this closer.
他说，即使这一切现在都属于巴菲特了。
He says, even if all this is Buffett now.
即使所有资本和股市都停摆，你依然可以信赖我的12.50美元报价。
Even if all the capital and stock market shut down, you can still bank on my $12.50 price.
而巴菲特正是以这个价格收购了这家公司。
And that is the price that Buffett bought the company for.
接着，巴菲特谈到了相信自己判断的重要性——你真的不应该去询问他人的意见，也不该在意别人在买卖你的股票时的看法，无论你是想投资、收购公司，还是做其他与公司相关的决策，即使别人持不同意见。
And then Buffett talks about the importance of being able to trust your own judgment and really shouldn't really be asking other people's opinion or being paying attention to people when they're buying or selling your stock or if you wanna make an investment or buy a company or do something with your company and other people disagree.
每天都有人卖出几股伯克希尔的股票，也有人买入几股。
It says every day somebody sells a few shares of Berkshire and somebody buys a few shares.
他们很可能对公司的估值持有不同的看法。
And they're probably coming to differing opinions on the valuation.
这对我们来说根本无关紧要。
It really doesn't make any difference to us.
我们根本不关心别人怎么说。
We don't pay any attention to what people say.
你不应该根据别人的看法来做决定。
You really should not make decisions based on what other people think.
杰夫·贝佐斯有一个很好的评论，他说即使亚马逊的股价像石头一样暴跌，他依然清楚亚马逊的基本面。
So there's a great comment about from Jeff Bezos about he knew the fundamentals of Amazon, even when his stock was dropping like a rock.
这就是他说的话。
And so this is what he said.
我看着股价从113美元跌到6美元，但同时我也在关注我们所有的内部业务指标：客户数量、每单位利润。
I watched the stock fall from $113 to 6, But I was also watching all of our internal business metrics, numbers of customers, profit per unit.
尽管股价下跌，但关于业务的每一件事都在迅速变好。
Every single thing about the business was getting better and fast, even as the stock was dropping.
这是一个固定成本的业务。
It's a fixed cost business.
因此，我可以看出，从内部指标来看，当业务达到某个规模时，我们就能覆盖固定成本，公司就会盈利。
And so what I could see is that from the internal metrics, it is that at a certain volume level that we would cover our fixed costs and the company would be profitable.
然后是一些关于保持事物尽可能简单、始终聚焦核心要务的重要观点。
And then a bunch of lines on the importance of keeping things as simple as possible and really just keeping the main thing the main thing.
我们没有人力资源部门，没有法律部门，没有投资者关系部门，也没有公关部门。
We have no human relations department, no legal department, no investor relations, no public relations.
我们完全没有这些部门。
We don't have any of that.
我们有一群顶尖人才在经营业务，我们只需要他们把钱寄到奥马哈就行。
We've got a bunch of all stars out there running businesses and we just ask them to mail the money to Omaha.
另一件事，我们对管理者通常的做法是找到那些击球率四成的球员，然后不告诉他们该怎么挥棒。
Another thing, the important thing we do with managers generally is to find the 400 hitters and then not tell them how to swing.
这是我最喜欢的一点，它让我想起了诺瓦克·德约科维奇。
And then this is my favorite one, it reminds me of Novak Djokovic.
我们有一些员工，他们根本不需要工作赚钱，但他们的工作量却超过了全球95%甚至更多的人。
We have a number of people working for us that have no financial need to work at all and they probably outwork 95% or more of the people in the world.
他们这么做是因为他们纯粹热爱击球的感觉。
And they do it because they just love smacking the ball.
我不看网球比赛，但我热爱任何形式的卓越表现。
Now, I don't watch tennis, but I do love excellence in every form.
2018年，《金融时报》对诺瓦克·德约科维奇进行了一次采访。
And there is a 2018 interview in the Financial Times with Novak Djokovic.
我回去重读了那篇采访，因为他提到：我之所以能维持这个水平，是因为我喜欢打网球。
And I went back and I read the interview, because he says: I can carry on playing at this level because I like hitting the tennis ball.
这很简单，我会继续做下去、继续打下去，因为我热爱它。
It's as simple to I'm going to keep doing this and keep playing this because I love it.
击打网球这个简单的动作，才是最重要的事。
The simple act of hitting the tennis ball, which is the main thing.
对吧？
Right?
我一直坚持把最重要的事放在首位。
I kept the main thing the main thing.
我其实真的很喜欢。
I actually love it.
有趣的是，当时在《金融时报》采访我的人接着问了。
The interesting part is that the the person interviewing me in the Financial Times follows up.
有没有网球运动员不喜欢这样？
Are there tennis players who don't?
德约科维奇说：哦，有的。
And Djokovic says, oh, yes.
确实有些人动机不纯。
There are people out there who don't have the right motivation.
我能看出来，但我不会评判。
I can see it, but I don't judge.
所以你回头看看，2018年的时候，他拿过多少个大满贯。
And so you go back and you can see how many majors did he have, you know, twenty eighteen.
他说：我不太确定，大概在网球历史上总大满贯数里排第五、第六吧。
He was like, I don't know, let's say fifth or sixth or something like that in total majors in all of tennis history.
然后你快进十年，甚至更短，比如五年，他就成了世界第一。
And then you fast forward, you know, a decade or even less, what, half a decade, and he's number one.
我之所以能继续以这个水平打球，是因为我喜欢击打网球。
I can carry on playing at this level because I like hitting the tennis ball.
接下来这段引语实际上融合了两个观点：设计一个符合你本性的业务，以及让自己易于沟通。
This next quote is really a combination of two ideas: the importance of designing a business that's natural to you and making yourself easy to interface with.
在我经营这家企业之前，我曾有过合伙关系。
Before I ran this, had a partnership.
我有一群很棒的合伙人。
I had a great group of partners.
本质上，我喜欢一个人安静地做自己的事。
And essentially, I liked to be left alone to do what I did.
我希望年终时根据成绩表来评判我，而不是对每一拍都指手画脚，更不要以不恰当的方式质疑我。
I liked to be judged on the scorecard at the end of the year rather than on every stroke and not second guess in a way that was inappropriate.
我希望身边有理解我所处环境的人。
I liked to have people who understood the environment in which I was operating in.
其中最重要的一点是，巴菲特告诉他的合伙人他喜欢做什么、想如何安排时间、想怎样经营自己的事业。
And one of the most important things is Buffett told his partners what he liked to do, how he wanted to spend his time, how he wanted to just run his business.
他们一遍又一遍地这样做。
They do this over and over again.
然后你可以决定：嘿，我想不想成为股东？
And then you can decide, Hey, do I want to do I to be a shareholder?
我想不想和这些人合作？
Do I want to partner with these guys?
他们反复提到的一点是，在他们全资拥有的企业中，除非会彻底耗尽大量资金，否则他们不会出售这些企业。
And like one thing that they bring up over and over again is in their wholly owned businesses, unless it's gonna completely drain a bunch of money, they're not gonna sell them.
即使他们可以说：‘我们以前赚15%，现在只赚5%了，不如卖了它，然后用这笔钱去赚15%。’
Even if, you know, they could say, oh, we're we used to make 15%, now we make five, let's sell it, and then we can take that money and we can make 15%.
他们觉得，这不过是我们的个性使然，是我们经营企业的方式。
They're like, this is just the quirk of us, how we want our how we want to run our businesses.
但我认为，向别人说明这些，让你自己更容易被理解——讲清楚什么对你重要、你真正喜欢做什么——这非常重要。
But I think telling people that, making yourself easy to interface with about what's important to you, what you actually like to do, is I think very, very important.
另一个他们反复强调的绝佳想法是：好消息会自行处理，所以只告诉我坏消息。
Another great idea that they repeat is that good news takes care of itself, so just tell me the bad news.
我不需要知道好消息。
I don't need to know the good news.
它会自行解决，确保不要让问题积压。
That'll take care of itself, and make sure you don't let problems fester.
你应当立即处理所有问题。
You ought to jump on everything.
查理一生都在督促我，确保我主动解决浮现出来的不愉快问题，而当其他一切都顺利时，这并不容易做到。
Charlie has pushed me all my life to make sure that I attack unpleasant problems that surface, and that's sometimes not easy to do when everything else is going fine.
当我拖延时，是查理一次次推我行动。
When I procrastinate, Charlie has been the one that jabs me into action.
他做了许多你不知道的服务。
He's performed a lot of services that you don't know about.
他们不断强调与尽可能优秀的人合作的重要性。
They're constantly talking about the importance of working with the best people you possibly can.
再说一遍，我对这个问题的看法是：永远永远不要忘记人类的差异性。
Again, the way I think about this is never ever ever forget the dynamic range of humans.
因此，在许多情况下，你应当为人才支付过高的薪酬，因为如果他们真的才华出众，几乎不可能支付得过高。
So in many cases, you want to overpay for talent, because if they're truly talented, it's almost impossible to overpay for talent.
这方面最典型的例子是苹果收购NeXT，你可以认为他们花了5亿美元重新聘请史蒂夫·乔布斯，结果却得到了世纪良机。
Greatest example of this is when Apple buys NeXT, you can think of that as, hey, they spent half $1,000,000,000 to rehire Steve Jobs and they got the deal of a century.
他们说：巨额资金并不会让我困扰。
They say, Large sums don't bother me.
我不介意为出色的表现支付高额报酬。
I do not mind paying a lot for performance.
最终，如果你找到了一位出色的管理者，你就应该给他非常优厚的报酬。
In the end, if you get a great manager, you want to pay him very well.
当他们达成你设定的目标时，你应当为他们提供丰厚的奖励。
You want a big carrot out there for them if they achieve the results that you've set out.
再过几页，又提到你必须非常谨慎地设计。
And a few pages later, picks up on you have to be very careful how you design.
你想奖励公司里的优秀人才，但设计激励机制时要小心。
Like you want to reward great people in your business, be careful how you design this incentive structure.
他说，你不应该只以利润作为奖励标准。
He says you don't want to award profits alone.
他提到，GEICO 的广告支出大约是这个数字，而今天这个数字可能更高。
So he's talking about the fact that GEICO spends like, this number is probably even higher today.
他们每年在广告上的花费大约是8亿美金左右。
They spend like, you know, 800,000,000 a year in advertising or something like that.
所以，如果GEICO的员工薪酬只与短期利润挂钩，那么短期内提高利润的最佳方式是什么？
And so it's like, well, if people working in GEICO, if we say your individual compensation is just tied to short term profits, what's the best way short term to increase our profits?
那就是：我们干脆削减广告投入。
It's like, we're just going to pull back on advertising.
他说，这是你能做的最愚蠢的事。
And he says, it'd be the dumbest thing you could do.
你不应该只根据利润来奖励。
You don't want to award on profits alone.
你一停止广告，业务就会开始慢慢萎缩。
You just quit advertising, and then you'll start shrinking the business a little.
因此，关于这部分，我脑海中浮现出两个想法，这些想法其实并不常被提及。
And so there's two actually ideas that popped to my mind about this section that are, you know, I don't hear repeated very much.
大卫·奥格威曾提到，广告实际上是一种生产成本。
And so David Ogivy, he talked about that advertising is actually a production cost.
这是我逐渐认识到的：广告应被视为产品的一部分，应作为生产成本而非销售成本来对待。
This is what he I have come to regard advertising as part of the product, to be treated as a production cost, not a selling cost.
因此，当经济困难时，你不应削减广告投入，就像你不会削减产品中任何其他必要成分一样，前提是你需要通过广告来销售产品。
It follows that it should not be cut back when times are hard any more than you would stint on any other essential ingredient in your product, assuming that you need to advertise to sell your product.
如果真是这样，那么广告就是一种真正的生产成本。
If that's the case, then advertising is an actual production cost.
现在，伊齐·夏普对这一点的应用最为出色。
Now, Izzy Sharp had the best application of this.
伊齐·夏普是四季酒店的创始人。
Izzy Sharp was the founder of Four Seasons.
他提到，在他的生意中，一个优势是他的竞争对手在打造酒店品牌时，都做着同样的蠢事。
And he talked about the fact that one of the benefits in his business is that his other competitors building hotel brands, they all did the same shit.
当经济衰退时，他们会自动削减广告预算。
When there was a pullback in the economy, they would automatically pull back their advertising budget.
而他会保持广告投入，甚至在能力范围内增加广告支出。
He would either maintain or if he could extend and spend more on advertising.
因此，在经济低迷时期，他趁机抢占了大量市场份额，因为他的竞争对手在削减广告开支时，他却意识到必须采取完全相反的策略。
So he wound up picking up a bunch of market shares in financial downturns because his competitors wind up cutting back their advertising costs when he realized he needed to do the exact opposite.
我认为，在几页之后，芒格虽然没有明确想到伊齐·夏普，但如果你分析伊齐·夏普通过这类决策所做的事情，就能明白他为何是一位出色的管理者。
And I think a few pages later, Munger didn't have Izzy Sharp in mind, but really if you analyze what Izzy Sharp is doing by making decisions like that, that's how you know he was a great manager.
所以芒格说：我认为几乎所有优秀的企业，都会在某些时候愿意让今天的业绩看起来比实际情况更差一些，以换取明天的更好表现。
So Munger says: I think almost all good businesses have occasions where their managers are willing to make today's results look a little worse than they would otherwise to help tomorrow.
而这一点的重要性在于，你真的能从行为中看出，大多数企业实际上管理得非常糟糕。
And again, the importance of this is you can really see in the behavior the fact that most businesses are actually poorly run.
即使你认为，在这个例子中，即使是《财富》500强的CEO们，他们在这一群体内的表现差异也相当明显。
Even you would think they talk about in this example that even the variance, like think about the Fortune 500 CEOs, The variance in performance even in that subset.
对吧？
Right?
坦率地说，美国企业经理人的才能差异巨大。
There's an enormous difference, frankly, in the talent of American business managers.
财富500强的首席执行官们，并不像奥运田径队成员那样被选拔。
The CEOs of the Fortune five hundred are not selected like the members of the Olympic track and field team.
你不会像在美国奥运队那样获得统一的顶尖素质。
You do not have the uniformity of top quality that you get with the American Olympic team.
你会遇到一些非常出色的人，但也会遇到很多平庸之辈。
You get some very, very terrific people, but you also get a lot of mediocrity.
我认为这就是为什么芒格总是说：找到优秀的人，然后留住他们。
And I think that's why Munger's always saying, listen, find great people and stick with them.
实际上，巴菲特对此也有自己的说法。
Really, Buffett has his own version of this.
对吧？
Right?
他不是在谈论自己，但芒格用巴菲特作为例子，巴菲特说，真正杰出的管理者是无价之宝。
He's not talking about himself, but Munger uses Buffett as an example, where Buffett says, Really outstanding managers are invaluable.
我喜欢芒格在这里说的话。
And I love what Munger says here.
他说，你不应该抱着每棵树下都藏着其他认股权证的念头去寻找。
He goes, you should not be looking for other warrants on the theory that they're under every bush.
根本就不存在什么其他认股权证。
It's like there is not other warrants.
然后他们给你一些建议。
And then they give you some some advice.
我非常喜欢这一点。
I I love this.
他们在挑选管理者来经营企业时，会谈到这一点。
They talk about, you know, when they're picking managers to run their businesses.
我们不喜欢那些突然宣称自己能成为强力击球手的班乔击球手。
We don't like banjo hitters who suddenly proclaim that they could become power hitters.
所以我的朋友布伦特·贝肖尔经营着一家在某些方面非常类似于伯克希尔的公司。
So my friend Brent Beshore runs a company very similar to, in some ways, to Berkshire.
他曾经与巴菲特和芒格都共处过一段时间。
He's he's spent time with both Buffett and Munger.
布伦特收购了许多私营公司，并永远持有它们，有时他不得不为这些公司寻找新的首席执行官。
Brent buys a bunch of private companies, keeps them forever, and sometimes he has to find new CEOs for these companies.
有一次，他和查理·芒格共进晚餐，只是问了问：我该怎么解决这个问题？
And so one time he was having dinner with Charlie Munger, and was just asking, like, how do I solve this problem?
这是我最喜欢的故事之一，因为这恰恰体现了芒格思维的简洁性。
And it's one of my favorite stories because it's just like the simplicity of Munger's thinking.
于是布伦特问：那你如何招聘优秀的首席执行官呢？
And, you know, Brent was like, well, how do you hire great CEOs?
芒格对布伦特的回答大致是：我们找一个以前干得不错的人，然后请他为我们做同样的工作。
And Munger's response to Brent was something like, we find somebody that did a good job before and ask them to do the same job for us.
布伦特接着问的问题是：但是，那关于招聘有潜力的年轻人呢？
And the follow-up question, Brad's follow-up question was something like, yeah, but what about, you know, hiring for potential or youth?
芒格说，我们不这么做。
And Monger's like, we we don't do that.
就这么简单，再简单不过了。
Just like, it couldn't be any more simple.
我们找到了一个出色的CO。
You we found somebody who was a great CO.
太好了。
It's like, great.
过来，为我们当个出色的CO吧。
Become a come over here and be a great CO for us.
但我就是喜欢这个想法。
But I just love that idea.
好吧。
It's like, okay.
或者你可以说，我知道自己在冒险，试试看那个击打香蕉球的球员，也许他能成长为强力击球手。
Or you could say, I'm a ban you know, try to take the chance on the banjo hitter, maybe the banjo hitter can transform into the power hitter.
但大多数时候他们并不会。
But most times they don't.
所以我特别喜欢蒙格，再次强调，这种理念简单而优美。
So I just love mongers, again, beautiful simplicity on that.
然后我想，这正是说明如何传达想法才能让人铭记的完美例子，对吧？
And then again, I think this is the perfect illustration of how do you communicate ideas so they're memorable, right?
你可以说，嘿，你真的应该以一种能让生活和事业经受住考验、真正生存下来的方式去组织它们；或者你也可以这么说：嘿，你可不想在人生的某个时刻把自己泡进一桶啤酒里。
And you could say, hey, you you really should be organizing your life and your business in a way that, they can withstand, that they will actually survive, or you can say, Hey, you don't want to drive yourself into a vat of beer at one point in your life.
那这意味着什么？
So what does that mean?
如果你是伯克希尔的股东，那么在100年里有99年，你的回报可能会因为我们过于保守而受损。
Saying that if you're a shareholder in Berkshire, your returns in ninety nine years out of 100 will probably be penalized by us being excessively conservative.
但在那100年里，有1年我们会挺过来，而其他人却不行。
And one year out of 100 will survive when other people don't.
1962年我设立办公室时，在墙上贴了七样东西。
When I set up my office in 1962, I put seven items on the wall.
我去了图书馆，做了金融历史页面的复印件。
I went down to the library, right, and I made photocopies of pages from financial history.
其中一篇是1901年5月发生的北方太平洋铁路逼空事件。
One was a story that happened in May 1901 when the Northern Pacific corner occurred.
哈里曼试图控制北方太平洋铁路，而詹姆斯·J.
Harriman was trying to get control of the Northern Pacific Railroad, and James J.
希尔作为最大股东，试图保住控制权。
Hill, was the largest stockholder, was trying to retain control.
在1901年的那份报纸上，整个市场都彻底崩盘了，因为北方太平洋的股价一天之内从每股170美元飙升至1000美元，交易以现金进行，因为空头急需股票。
And in that paper, in 1901, the whole rest of the market was totally collapsing because Northern Pacific went from $170 a share to $1,000 a share in one day, trading for cash because the shorts needed it.
在那篇报道的顶部，有一个小新闻，我至今仍挂在办公室里：一位纽约的啤酒酿造商因收到追加保证金通知，驾车冲进了一大缸热啤酒中自杀。
And there was a little item at the top of that paper, which I still have hanging up in my office, where a beer brewer in New York committed suicide by driving into a vat of hot beer because he received a margin call.
他很可能知道，一天之内股价从170美元涨到1000美元、导致保证金追缴，这种事几乎是不可能的。
He probably knew how impossible it was that in one day a stock could go from $170 to $1,000 to cause a margin call.
但他最终还是掉进了热啤酒缸里，而我从不希望自己落得同样的下场。
But he ended up in a vat of hot beer, and I've never wanted to end up in a vat of hot beer.
我和芒格共进晚餐时，有一件有趣的事。
There is something interesting when I had dinner with Munger.
他说的一件事特别令人费解。
One of the most fascinating things he said it was so odd.
他认为，富有又受人爱戴是非常不寻常的，这违背了人性。
He thought it was very unusual to be so wealthy and loved that that goes against human nature.
他和巴菲特显然都非常富有，但同时也深受人们喜爱。
The fact that him and Buffett, everybody obviously knows they were super rich, but they were also really beloved.
我对这一点有自己的看法，当时我并没有想到要问他，但后来突然冒出来一个想法：为什么会这样呢？
And my own theory of this, and I didn't think about this to ask him at the time, but it popped to my mind, was like, why would that be the case?
我其实认为，这是因为分享知识所带来的益处。
And I actually think it's because there's the benefits of teaching.
他们并没有把自己六七十年职业生涯中积累的知识据为己有。
You know, it's not like they hoarded the knowledge that they of their six or seven decade career.
他们写信给股东，谈论股东大会，人们还为此写了书。
They wrote about their shareholders, they talked about the AGM, they you know, people wrote books on it.
你可以随手拿起来想，哦，芒格和巴菲特找到了一些非常好的点子。
You could just pick it up and be like, Oh, you know, Munger Buffett found some really good ideas.
我应该把这些点子拿过来用一用。
I should probably take them and use them.
而且这样做还有其他好处，而且是多次这样做。
And there's also other benefits as well, where by doing this, this is multiple times.
我其实读过一本叫《我在卖给沃伦·巴菲特之前学到的东西》的书。
I actually read a book called What I Learned Before I Sold to Warren Buffett.
我觉得这本书的名字大概是这样。
I think that's the title of the book.
他是一个赫尔兹伯格钻石家族的第三代传人。
It's a guy that third generation of Helzberg diamonds.
你知道，他拥有一个非常繁荣的家族私营企业。
And, you know, he had a very prosperous, privately held family business.
当他意识到可能是出售企业的合适时机时，他心中只有一人选。
And when he realized it's probably the right time to sell the business, he had one person in mind.
巴菲特。
Buffett.
你为什么说是因为他参加了会议。
Why do you have a because he went to the meetings.
他阅读了股东信。
He read the shareholder letters.
我相当确定他是个股东。
I'm pretty sure he was a shareholder.
我从这些教导中受益良多。
It's like, I benefited so much from all the teaching.
所以他们实际上在讨论，一开始是芒格，然后巴菲特也加入进来，谈到他们因为建立了这样的追随者群体而获得了这么多机会。
And so they're actually talking it starts out with Munger and Buffett chimes in about the fact that they have all this opportunity by the fact that they built this following.
我认为他们是通过最好的方式建立了这个追随者群体。
And I think they built the following through the best way.
就是说，嘿。
It's just like, hey.
我会坐在那里，通过我的日常工作学习所有这些东西。
I'm gonna sit there and learn all this stuff through my day to day job.
我会转身把这些分享给你，希望你也能从中受益。
I'm gonna turn around and, like, share it with you, and you can hopefully benefit as well.
所以芒格说，我们经常收到一些别人根本不会卖给别人的东西。
So Munger says, We get offered things by people who would not sell to anyone else.
这真的很特别，而且发生过很多次。
That is really peculiar, and it has happened a lot.
巴菲特插话了。
Buffett chimes in.
这种事情确实发生过，但都是一些不重要的案例。
It's happened and not important ones.
当我听到ISCAR这家公司时，那是家金属切削工具公司，我以前从未听说过ISCAR或它的创始人。
When I heard from ISCAR, that's the metal cutting tools company, I had never heard of ISCAR or its founder.
他的名字叫伊顿·韦尔弗海默，我想是这么发音的。
His name is Eaton Werfenheimer, I think is how you pronounce it.
他基本上告诉我，他只想把公司卖给伯克希尔，或者不想卖给任何人。
He basically told me that he wanted to sell to Berkshire and or he didn't want to sell to anybody else.
我们见面后就达成了交易。
We met and we made a deal.
他们反复提到的一点是，他们是被个别机会驱动的。
Another thing they repeat is the fact that they are individual opportunity driven.
事实上，拿破仑有一句名言与此相关。
In fact, there's great line in Napoleon that is related to this.
但他们说的是，你知道，刚开始的时候，我们根本不知道自己在建造什么，对吧？
But they're talking about, you know, when they started, it was like, We didn't know what we were building, right?
我们只有一家糟糕的纺织厂。
We just had a lousy textile mill.
并不是查理和我坐下来制定了什么计划。
It isn't like Charlie and I sat down and worked out some plan.
我们会经营这家愚蠢的纺织业务二十年，然后最终不得不关闭它，再去做别的事情。
We'll run this dumb textile business for twenty years, and then we'll finally have to fold it, and then we'll do this, that, and everything.
我们只是不停地一步一个脚印地往前走。
We just kept putting one foot in front of the other.
拿破仑对待生活也是同样的方式。
Napoleon approached his life the same way.
他说，我几乎没有几个真正明确的想法，原因在于我不固执地试图控制环境，而是顺应它们，它们迫使我一直改变主意。
He says, I had very few really definitive ideas, and the reason for this was that instead of obstinately seeking to control circumstances, I obeyed them, and they forced me to change my mind all the time.
大多数时候，我并没有明确的计划，只有项目。
Most of the time I had no definitive plans, only projects.
巴菲特继续说：我们的合作关系也是如此。
Buffett continues: Our partnership was the same way.
我们与人们坐下来交谈，在我这边，我会递给他们一张小纸条。
We sat down with people, and in my case, I handed them a little sheet of paper.
它明确了基本规则。
It laid the ground rules.
我想确保我们达成了一致。
I wanted to be sure that we were on the same page.
你不需要阅读合伙协议。
You don't have to read the partnership agreement.
我绝不可能会占你便宜。
There's no way in the world I would take advantage of you.
如果你觉得我会那样做，你就根本不该在这里。
You shouldn't be here if you think I would.
但我希望你和我站在同一立场，用我衡量自己的标准来衡量我。
But I do want you to be on the same page and be measuring me by the same yardsticks that I measure myself.
所以我已经重复过了。
So I already repeated this.
我喜欢这个想法，因为它融合了多个要点——关键是让自己容易相处，也就是直接告诉别人什么对你重要，然后与那些仅凭一个握手协议你就能安心合作的人共事。
I love that idea because it combines really a number of things, but really being easy to interface with, right, making yourself easy to interface with by just telling people what's important to you, and then working with people where you would be comfortable with just a handshake agreement.
如果你还在怀疑人类情绪波动范围的重要性，巴菲特被问到他做过的最好的投资是什么。
And then in case you were doubting the importance of never ever ever forgetting the dynamic range of humans, Buffett is asked what's the best investment he ever made.
听听他的回答：最好的投资就是让查理成为我的合伙人。
Listen to his response: The best investment was getting Charlie to be my partner.
另一个绝佳的主意：最大化公司花在为顾客创造奇迹上的时间，同时减少或消除阻碍这一目标的行政负担或流程。
Another great idea: maximize the amount of time that your company spends on making magic for your customers, and minimize or eliminate overhead or process that get in that way.
我们真正让公司的管理者能够100%的时间都专注于思考什么对他们的业务最有利。
We really free up our managers of our business to spend 100% of the time thinking about what is good for their business.
理想情况下，他希望伯克希尔旗下企业的管理者们所做的就是这些。
Ideally, what he wants the managers of the Berkshire businesses to be doing.
全身心投入于对业务真正重要的事情上，从而消除经营企业时常常出现的干扰。
Spending all their time focused on what counts for the business, and eliminates the distractions that often come in with running a business.
他说，我猜大多数上市公司的首席执行官至少浪费了三分之一的时间在各种根本无法为业务增添价值的事情上，很多时候反而还拖了后腿。
He says, I would guess that CEOs of most public companies waste a third of their time at least on all kinds of things that really don't add a thing to the business, and in many cases subtract from the business.
我们允许他们将100%的时间都集中在真正重要的事情上，这在美国企业中是极为罕见的。
We allow them to spend a 100% of their time focused on what counts, and that is a rare occurrence in American businesses.
如果你有一个工具，能实际计算出你的公司有多少百分比的时间真正用于为顾客创造奇迹或改进产品，而不是花在那些无关紧要的行政负担、流程和事务上，那将非常有趣。
It'd be very fascinating if you have a tool that can actually calculate, like, what percent of your company's time is actually focused on making magic or improving things for your customers as opposed to, you know, all this overhead, these processes, these things that actually don't matter to the customer.
我从未听说过或见过有人把这一点作为衡量指标，但我认为这真是个极好的想法。
I've never heard of or seen anybody tracking that as a metric, but I should think this is a really good idea.
我想回到他提到的这个想法，他说有这种唾手可得的机遇。
I wanna go back to this idea where he says, you know, there's this low hanging fruit.
也许不算唾手可得，因为你得懂得如何分析它。
Maybe not low hanging fruit because you have to know how to analyze it.
但确实存在大量公开信息，如果你有良好的判断力，能够做出不同的解读，就能从中获利。
But they, you know, there's a bunch of public information that if you have good judgment and you have, like, you can interpret differently and you can profit from this.
所以他在21世纪初投资了大约4亿美元进入中石油。
So he winds up investing 400,000,000, I think, in PetroChina in the early two thousands.
几年后他卖出这笔投资，赚了35亿美元的利润，但我只想强调一下他是如何思考这个问题的。
He's gonna sell this for a few years later for a $3,500,000,000 profit, but I just wanna pull out some the way he was thinking about this.
这些信息明明就白纸黑字地写在一份任何人都能拿到的报告里。
It was right there in black and white in a report that anybody could get.
我们只是坐在办公室里阅读这些报告，就能把4亿美元投出去，现在价值已经涨到12亿美元了。再次说明，当他最终卖出股票时，赚了35亿美元。
We just sit in an office and read those things, and we were able to put $400,000,000 out that now is worth $1,200,000,000 So again, he gets like $3,500,000,000 when he winds up selling the stock.
中石油的年报一发布，我就读了。
The PetroTrano annual report came out and I read it.
这正是我唯一做过的事。
That's the only thing I ever did.
我从未接触过管理层，没读过经纪报告，也没问过任何人的意见。
I never contacted management, read a brokerage report, or asked for anybody's opinion.
我得出结论，它的价值是1000亿美元，而售价只有350亿美元。
I came to the conclusion that it was worth $100 B and it was selling for $35 B.
和管理层交谈有什么意义呢？
What is the sense of talking to management?
当我应该买入股票时，进一步细化分析纯粹是浪费时间。
Any further refining of analysis would be a waste of time when what I should be doing is buying the stock.
这就像有人走进门，体重在三百到三百五十磅之间。
It is like somebody that walked in a door and they weighed somewhere between three hundred and three fifty pounds.
我可能不知道他们确切的体重，但我知道他们很胖。
I might not know how much they weigh, but I would know that they were fat.
这正是我所寻找的。
That's all I'm looking for.
一种在财务上很臃肿的东西。
Something that is financially fat.
芒格说过一句话。
There's a line that Munger says.
这句话不在这本书里。
It's not in this book.
但他在这本书里有一个很有趣的说法，我念给你听。
He's actually got a funny way to say it in this book I'm gonna read to you.
但我一直在不断思考这一点。
But it's something I think of constantly.
他说，在商业中，我们常常发现，成功的系统会近乎荒谬地最大化或最小化一个或少数几个变量。
And he says, in business, we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables.
他在这本书里有一句精彩的话。
He has a great line in this book.
他说，我认为对绝大多数人来说，专精是一种很好的策略。
He says, I think it's a great strategy for the great mass of humanity is to specialize.
没人想去一个一半是肛肠科医生、一半是牙医的医生那里。
Nobody wants to go to a doctor who's half proctologist and half dentist.
于是他们引用了IBM前首席执行官兼董事长托马斯·沃森的话，他说：我不是天才，我只是在某些方面聪明，而且我会一直待在这些领域里。
And so they quote the former CEO and chairman of IBM, Thomas Watson, where he says, I'm no genius, I'm just smart in spots, and I stay around those spots.
所以他们在谈论能力圈。
So they're talking about circle competence.
其实，我对此的理解是，他们讲的是极端专注所带来的效应倍增。
Really, way I think about it is like they're talking about the multiplication of effects of extreme, extreme focus.
我来谈谈我最欣赏的美国企业家之一。
I talk about one of my favorite entrepreneurs in America.
当我说出这个名字时，人们总会感到惊讶，因为我觉得这简直太好笑了。
People are surprised when I say this because I just think it's hilarious.
他只接受过一次采访，而且我觉得那次采访已经是两三年前的事了。
And he's only done like one interview, and I think the interview is like two or three years old.
他叫托德·格雷夫斯。
It's guy named Todd Graves.
明白吗？
Okay?
托德·格雷夫斯是这家叫Raising Cane's餐厅的创始人。
Todd Graves is the founder of this place called Raising Cane's.
托德·格雷夫斯卖鸡块。
Todd Graves sells chicken fingers.
他就只做这一件事。
That is all he does.
但他恰好做得比世界上任何人都好，二十多年来一直保持极致专注，如今身价高达一百亿美元，而他卖的只是他妈的鸡块。
He just happens to do it better than anybody else in the world, And he has done that for twenty five years with extreme levels of focus, and he's worth $10,000,000,000, and he sells fucking chicken fingers.
我特别喜欢的一点是，如果我将来要卖鸡块，虽然我不会这么做，但听了他那次采访后，他说的每一点都跟我设想的一模一样。
And one of the things I absolutely love when if I ever sold chicken fingers, and I'm not going to, based on what he said in this one interview I heard from him, he's like, that's exactly the way I would do it.
我非常喜欢他的思维方式，他对生意的理解。
I loved everything about his mentality, the way he thought about his business.
他的理念与我读过的无数伟大创始人传记中描述的，以及我们在这档播客里讨论过的那些传奇创业者惊人地相似。
It is unbelievably similar to countless of, you know, history's greatest founders that I've read biographies of and that you and I have just have talked about on this podcast.
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
他只是把这用在了鸡块上。
It just he applied it to chicken fingers.
所以他在那次采访中说的一句话，我特别喜欢。
And so he said one thing in that interview I actually love.
他说：我相信专注于一件事，并把它做得比任何人都好。
He goes, I believe in doing one thing and doing it better than anyone else.
我经常遇到一些人，有时是那些我读过的人，有时是我实际见过的人，他们都只投资和深耕一个行业。
I run into people all the time, and sometimes it's people I read about, sometimes it's people I actually meet, that they invest and build in only one industry.
他们长期坚持这样做，如果你追踪这个行业里每一个伟大的公司或杰出人物，他们 somehow 都参与其中。
And they do that for a long time that if you track every great company or every great person in that industry, somehow they're in that deal.
我认为这是一种智慧的体现。
And I think that's a sign of wisdom.
有一句很棒的话，我觉得是巴菲特说的：如果你对某件事是否在你的能力圈内有疑虑，那它就不在。
There's a great line where, I think it's Buffett that says, if you have doubts about something being in your circle of competence, it isn't.
我认为这需要自律，以及长期的智慧和自控力。
And I think it takes discipline and, you know, wisdom and self control over a long period of time.
在托德·格雷夫斯的那次采访中，他们接到了大量来自人们的电话。
In that interview that Todd Graves did, they're taking, like, all these phone calls from people.
人们打电话进来或录制视频，提出各种问题。
Like, they're calling in or making videos, they're asking questions.
我只是觉得，我特别喜欢你做的事。
It's just like, I love what you do.
这种情况一再发生。
This happens over and over again.
这真是太了不起了。
It's it's remarkable.
这是人性的一部分。
Part of human nature.
我特别喜欢你做的事。
I love what you do.
我很喜欢，我自己也有这种感受。
I love it's like I I get this myself.
就像，我喜欢你做的这件事。
It's like, I love what you do x.
你有没有想过做Y呢？
Have you ever thought about doing y?
我就想，如果我做Y，那就意味着我花在X上的时间会变少。
And I'm like, if I do Y, that means I do I spend less time on X.
但你刚刚还说，你喜欢我做X。
And you just said you love that I do X.
所以他一直说，我喜欢你做的这件事。
And so he kept going, he's like, I love what you do.
为什么你不考虑在菜单里加点甜点，或者做得辣一点，或者做其他这些事呢？
Why don't you do, you know, add dessert to the menu, or make it spicy, or do all this other stuff?
托德在采访中表现得非常讨人喜欢。
And Todd, was very likable, comes off very likable in the interview.
她不是。
She's No.
菜单今天就是这样。
The menu is the way it is today.
我开业那天就是这样的。
That was exactly how it was the day I opened.
他谈到了极致专注的好处，甚至体现在他能在快餐窗口多快地完成车辆服务上。
And he talks about the benefits of extreme focus, it goes down to even how fast he's able to turn cars over in the drive through.
当你只有五个门店时，这可能只会带来微小的差异。
And that may make make a tiny difference when you got five locations.
但他有六百到八百家门店。
But he's got like 600 or 800.
这会产生巨大的差异。
It makes a massive difference.
在一个运转良好的业务中，这种差异会随着时间推移不断扩大。
And in a business that's working, that difference only expands over time.
再说一遍，我相信专注于一件事，并把它做得比任何人都好。
Again, I believe in doing one thing and doing it better than anyone else.
我确实有个朋友，非常擅长新业务创建，尤其专注于科技和人工智能，他见过一个年轻人，是某位航运大亨的孙子。
I actually had a friend of mine who's really good at new business creation, heavily focused on technology and AI, and he met with a guy who was like the grandson of like a shipping magnet.
那个人说：‘我想做你正在做的事。’
And the guy's like, oh, I wanna do what you wanna do.
我朋友就直接问：‘你为什么会觉得这可能呢？’
And he's just like, why would you think that's possible?
你看到我试图去购买油轮了吗？
It's like, do you see me trying to go buy oil tankers?
这到底是什么情况？
Like, what is going on here?
如果我插手你的领域，你肯定会碾压我。
If I jumped in your game, you would kick my ass.
那你为什么觉得反过来就不成立呢？
Why do you think this the reverse is not true?
人类本性中有一个非常有趣的特质，就像我们是否能看清自己一样。
It has a very fascinating quirk to human nature to It's like, I don't know if we can see it in ourselves.
也许需要别人来告诉我们真相在哪里。
Maybe other people have to tell us where the case is.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我只是觉得，这可能也跟我性格有关。
I just and maybe it's also, like, prone to my personality.
所以这些话才会在书中被删减掉。
It's why these lines chip out in the books.
我只是喜欢做一件事，一遍又一遍地重复做。
It's just like, I just like doing one thing and doing it over and over and over again.
这深深触动了我的内心。
It just speaks to my soul.
所以这真的很有意思。
So this is really interesting.
你看到他们对互联网乃至技术的看法是如何随时间变化的。
You see their take on the Internet over time, and really technology.
我接下来要读给你的内容，并不是关于互联网的。
This isn't what I'm about to read to you is not really about the Internet.
我认为，就我们的目的而言，我们不应当这样去思考这个问题。
I don't think that for our purposes, like how we should be thinking about this.
所以他们在2000年时这样说，当时他们很明显地意识到：天啊，我们拥有的某些生意会被互联网摧毁。
So they say this in 2000, and they're talking, and it was obvious to them, like, oh shit, we got some businesses here that we own, that are gonna get wrecked by the Internet.
因此，对我们来说，对我和你而言，当我读给你这段内容时，别去想百科全书、报纸或者互联网。
And so, for us, for me and you, I think like when we're I'm gonna read this to you, but don't think about know, encyclopedias or the newspaper or Internet.
真正重要的是，我们要明白，所有技术本质上都是做某件事的更好方式，而且通常更优、更便宜。
It's like really, what we want to know is like, what is all technology is a better way to do something, and usually it's better and cheaper.
那么现在正在发生什么？
So what is happening now?
当前有哪些行业正在兴起？
What are the businesses that are happening now?
哪些行业会因为当今新技术的出现而衰退？
Which ones will decline as a result of the new technology that is created today?
我认为对此正确的回应应该是像通用汽车的创始人比尔·杜兰特那样。
And I think the proper response to this is to be like Billy Durant, the founder of General Motors.
我会向你们解释我的意思。
And I'll explain to you what I mean by that.
这是来自2000年会议的内容。
So this is from the two thousand meeting.
巴菲特说，十五年前，印刷版百科全书是教育年幼孩子，以及当我们想查阅某个主题时教育我和查理的最好工具。
Buffett says, fifteen years ago, print encyclopedias were the best tool for educating not only young children, but for educating me or Charlie when we wanted to look something up on a subject.
那是1985年。
That was 1985.
效果非常好，对吧？
Worked fabulously, right?
他们拥有《世界图书百科全书》。
And they owned the World Book Encyclopedias.
这是一个出色的产品，但这也正是为什么你要把技术看作只是做某件事的更好方式。
It was a marvelous product, but it requires this is again why you think of technology as all technology is is a better way to do something.
所以，在1985年，我想要学习时，就会拿起《世界百科全书》。
So for me to learn back then, you know, in '85, I'm picking up the World Book Encyclopedia.
它花了多少钱？
What does it cost?
它是怎么送到我手里的？
Like, how did that get to me?
《世界百科全书》需要砍伐树木、运营造纸厂、装订和印刷，还要配送一箱70磅重的UPS包裹。
The World Book Encyclopedia requires chopping down trees, operating paper mills, binding and printing, and delivery of a 70 pound UPS package.
它以一种延续了四五百年的方式被制作出来，是当时将信息从编撰者传递给使用者的最佳方法。
It was put together in a way that for four or five hundred years was the best technique for taking that information and moving it from those who assembled it to those who wanted to use it.
然后，互联网出现了。
Then the Internet came.
我们支付费用，接着他们就会说，好吧，互联网显然会摧毁这一切。
We pay, and then they talk about, okay, the Internet is going to destroy that, obviously.
你知道，维基百科是免费的。
You know, Wikipedia, it's free.
你可以随时使用它。
You can use it anytime you want.
那只是冰山一角。
That's just like the tip of the spear there.
然后他们提到，曾经在书中谈论过，仅仅推广一份报纸，也就是《水牛城新闻报》。
Then they talk about the fact that they were at one point in the book, talk about, you know, just promoting a single newspaper, which is the Buffalo news.
他们每年能赚四千万美元的利润，却无法将这些利润再投资到业务中。
They were making like 40,000,000 a year in profit that they could not reinvest in the business.
所以他们每年白白流失四千万美元的现金流，这些钱后来被其他企业拿走了。
So it was just shooting off 40,000,000 a year in cash flow that they were then taken by other businesses.
我们在《水牛城新闻报》上，要将发行收入的相当大一部分支付给投递员，还要额外支付给区域经理，支付卡车配送费用，以及巨大的印刷设备费用，诸如此类。
We pay a significant percentage of our circulation revenue at the Buffalo News to our carriers, and we pay additional money to district managers, and then we pay for trucks to deliver the product out, and we pay for huge printing presses, and all that sort of thing.
人们砍伐树木，只为给我们提供原材料，以便在水牛城传递关于水牛城公牛队周日比赛的消息。
And people chop down trees in order to give us the raw material to transmit information in Buffalo about what the Buffalo Bills did on Sunday.
现在你有了互联网，它的边际成本几乎为零，并且可以即时传递信息。
Now you have the internet that has virtually no incremental unit cost and can deliver the information instantaneously.
与现在大多数其他传递娱乐和信息的方式相比，它的成本低得惊人。
It is incredibly low cost compared to most of the other methods of conveying entertainment and information now.
他们在2000年的时候说了这些话。
They're saying this in the year 2000.
我们被问到是否担心互联网会损害我们的某些业务。
We were asked if we're afraid the internet would hurt some of our businesses.
答案是肯定的。
The answer is yes.
所以，即使众所周知，巴菲特和芒格并不是特别出色的技术投资者——当然，苹果的投资除外——即使他们并没有在这些互联网股票上赚到很多钱，他们显然也看得很清楚。
So even if famously, you know, Buffett and Munger are not great technology investors, I guess, you know, the Apple investment not notwithstanding, you know, even if they they didn't make a lot of money in all these Internet stocks, they clearly saw what which like, they saw it very clearly.
互联网将摧毁我们的报纸业务和《世界百科全书》业务。
Like, the internet is going to destroy our newspaper business and our world book encyclopedia business.
但再说一遍，这里的重点是，那么今天的情况又是什么呢？
But again, what is the the point here is, is like, okay, what is like this today?
如果你已经意识到自己可能正身处这样一个行业，那么正确的应对方式是什么？
And then if you've identified that maybe you're you're in a business like that now, What is the proper response?
在我看来，正确的应对方式应该是像比利·杜兰特那样。
And the reason proper response, in my opinion, is to be like Billy Durant.
我这话是什么意思呢？
So what do I mean?
如果你回溯历史，认真思考美国汽车工业的发展，我认为这个行业中最重要的两位创始人——他们甚至改变了我们的地理格局——就是亨利·福特和比利·杜兰特。
If you go back and you actually think about the American automobile industry, I I would argue the two most important founders in the history of this industry that that, you know, changed our geography, for God's sake, was Henry Ford and Billy Durant.
比利·杜兰特是通用汽车的创始人。
Billy Durant was the founder of General Motors.
让我感到有趣的是，比利·杜兰特在创立通用汽车之前在做什么。
Now what was interesting to me is what Billy Durant was doing before he founded General Motors.
他创建了一家极为成功的马车制造公司。
He created one of the most successful horse carriage manufacturing companies.
当他意识到汽车时代即将来临的时候，那是在福特真正解决大规模生产汽车问题之前的十几年，对吧？
And as soon as he realized the car was coming, and this is at a time, this is before, this is a decade and a half before Ford actually solved the problem of how to mass produce cars, right?
所以他很早就看到了，对吧？
So he saw this early, Right?
他心想，等等，汽车虽然当时在底特律路上可能只有几百辆，而且大多数都是手工制造，跑不了多远，但他立刻转型了。
He's like, wait a minute, the car, even though I think there's like a couple 100 on the road in Detroit, and most of them, all of them were handmade, most of them didn't go very far, he immediately switched.
他认为，汽车会不断改进，人们终将解决这个问题。
He's like, the car, they're gonna improve the car, they're gonna figure this out.
我要退出马车行业了，因为这项新技术已经出现了，他立刻投身到了汽车业。
I'm getting out of the horse carriage business because this new technology has come around, and he immediately jumped into the automobile business.
所以我才说，如果你正在从事一个行业，而你意识到某项技术即将以更优、更便宜的方式取代你当前的业务，那么你应该效仿比利·杜兰特的做法，投身于这个看似不可能的新趋势。
That's why I said, if you can if you are in a business, you're identifying one, maybe you're in one, where technology is going to do what you're doing today, better and cheaper, the move is to do what Billy Durant would do, which is to jump into that oncoming phenomenon that was impossible.
没有任何一个人能阻止汽车这一趋势的到来。
It was impossible for any one person to stop the phenomenon of the automobile.
我猜测，如今正涌现出大量新技术，许多行业和企业都将因此受到严重冲击。
And I would guess there's a ton of industries and businesses that are going to be severely diminished as a result of all the new technology that's coming out right now.
巴菲特和芒格教给我一件事：学习不是死记硬背信息，学习是改变你的行为。
One thing that Buffett and Munger taught me is that learning is not memorizing information, learning is changing your behavior.
因此，有很多例子表明，他们识别出了极其优秀的人才，却过早地抛售了。
And so there's multiple examples where they identify a supremely talented person, and they sell way too early.
我想到了两个这样的例子：巴菲特认识英特尔的创始人罗伯特·诺伊斯，也见过沃尔特·迪士尼，他毫无疑问地意识到这些人的非凡才能。当时，爱荷华州有一所叫格林内尔的大学，罗伯特和巴菲特都担任该校董事会主席。
So two examples of this that popped to mind is Buffett knew Bob Noyce, founder of Intel, and met Walt Disney, and knew without a doubt how talented these people So they were sitting there's a college in Iowa called Grinnell, and both Bob and Warren Buffett were sitting on the board of this the chairman of the board of trustees of Grinnell College.
该大学捐赠基金的投资决策由董事会，特别是巴菲特来做出。
And the investment decisions of that endowment were made by the board of trustees, specifically Buffett.
格林内尔大学实际上购入了英特尔初创融资的10%私募股份。
And Grinnell actually buys 10% of the private placement that was the initial funding of Intel.
他说：我们在格林内尔大学购入了英特尔原始发行的10%股份。
He says, We bought 10% of the original issue at Grinnell.
现在这是巴菲特在说话。
This is Buffett talking now.
负责这个投资委员会的天才——也就是他本人——几年后还是把股份卖掉了。
The genius who ran that investment committee, which was him, managed to sell it a few years later.
他说：我不会告诉你他的名字，那就是我自己，也没人能靠算出这些股份现在的价值而获奖。
He says, I won't give you his name, which is him, and there's no prize for anybody who calculates the value of those shares now.
另一个有趣的地方是，学习不是死记硬背信息，而是真正改变你的行为。
What is also fascinating, so again, learning is not memorizing information, learning is actually changing your behavior.
你知道诺伊斯有多有才华，多么尊重他，却还是卖得太早了。
You knew how talented Noyce was, how much you respected him, and you sold too early.
他也做过类似的事，而且人们常说要直面自己的错误，这样未来才不会再犯，因为错失的收益实在太大了。
He also did this, and again, they talk about the importance of rubbing your nose in your own mistakes, so you avoid doing that in the future because the amount of gains they gave up.
你知道的，贝尔里奇石油公司，他说价值两亿美元。
You know, the oil the Belridge Oil Company, he said it was 200,000,000.
想想看，错失了谷歌，即使广告已经起效；错失了英特尔，即使你认识鲍勃·诺伊斯；而最过分的，可能就是迪士尼了。
If you think about, you know, missing out on Google, even though the ads are working, increase in Intel, even though you knew Bob Noyes, and then maybe the most egregious of all is Disney.
你知道，你错失的可能是数百亿美元，具体数额取决于当时他们能投入多少资金。
You know, you're talking, I don't know, maybe hundreds of billions of dollars depending on how much money they had and they could have put into it at that time.
但我之所以提到这个，是因为巴菲特在1966年见过沃尔特·迪士尼之后，买进了迪士尼的股票。
But the reason I bring this up is because Buffett bought Disney stock after meeting Walt Disney in 1966.
他以每股31美分买入，股价涨到48美分时就卖出了。
He paid 31¢ a share and sold when the stock went to 48¢ a share.
他们还把杰夫·贝佐斯识别为一位才华横溢的狂热者，一个极其聪明的人，他们非常欣赏他。
Another person they identified as a talented fanatic, as somebody as ferociously intelligent, was they loved Jeff Bezos.
你知道，他们谈到他所取得的成就真是非凡。
And, you know, they talk about the fact that it's remarkable what he's done.
他们很早就看到了他的才华，当然，可能不是在IPO之前或期间，但他们从未采取行动。
They saw how talented he was relatively early on, obviously, maybe not at the IPO or before that, and they never acted on it.
他们从未购买过一股股票。
They never bought a single share.
巴菲特非常喜欢贝佐斯，所以我只想读几段他关于贝佐斯的评价。
Buffett loves Basil's, so I just wanna read a couple of things that he was he said about him.
一个人在两个截然不同的行业里，几乎同时从零开始，建立起一个非凡的经济机器，这确实令人惊叹，更何况他还面对着拥有大量资本和其他资源的竞争对手。
It's really remarkable one person who built an extraordinary economic machine in two really different industries, almost simultaneously, from a standing start at zero, while facing competitors with lots of capital and everything else.
像杰夫·贝佐斯在亚马逊那样，同时在零售业和云计算领域做到这一点，真是不可思议。
To do it in retailing and to do it in the cloud like Jeff Bezos has done at Amazon is really incredible.
事实上，我从一开始就关注亚马逊，我认为杰夫·贝佐斯所做的事情近乎奇迹。
The truth is that I watched Amazon from the start, and I think what Jeff Bezos has done is something close to a miracle.
我对他能力的评价非常高，非常高，非常高，我不是在结巴。
I had a very, very, very, I'm not stuttering.
他说了三次，或者写了三次，或者说了三次。
He said it three times, or he wrote it three times, or he said it three times.
我第一次见到杰夫时，就对他能力评价极高，但我低估了他。
I had a very, very, very high opinion of Jeff's ability when I first met him, and I underestimated him.
我喜欢他们看待和描述技术不断变化本质的方式。
And I love the way they think about or describe, you know, the constant ever changing nature of technology.
我认为沃尔特·迪士尼做得特别出色的一点是，只要你坚持得够久，就会碰上好运。
I think one of the things that Walt Disney did spectacularly is you just stay in the game long enough to get lucky.
其他人可能真的会发明一种技术，极大提升你产品的市场需求和公司价值。
Someone else can actually invent a technology that will drastically increase the market for your products, the value of your company.
他们谈到这一点，巴菲特也清楚，很久以前有人发明了电视，后来又发明了有线电视。
They were talking about, and Buffett knows this, was saying somewhere way back somebody invented television, and then they invented cable.
所以，一个在1941年打击率能达到0.406的棒球运动员，年薪是2万美元。
So a baseball player who could bat four zero six in 1941 was worth $20,000 a year.
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