#90 查理·芒格（《穷查理宝典》）

他说他欣赏这两家店，因为它们都是经久不衰的机构，而且商品定价公道。

So he says he admired both stores because they were durable institutions and because their merchandise was fairly priced.

在我父亲眼里，持久性始终是最宝贵的品质。

Durability has always been a first rate virtue in my father's eyes.

明白了。

Alright.

现在这段是巴菲特讲查理的健忘事儿。

So now this is Buffett on Charlie's absent mindedness.

我来读个挺有趣的故事。

So I'm gonna read this story is rather humorous.

我看了都忍不住笑。

I chuckled.

他能一心一意专注于一件事，完全忽略其他所有事情。

The scenario I left myself is he has the ability to focus on one thing at the exclusion of everything else.

这简直是一种超能力。

That is a superpower.

我从查理身上看到的另一个特质，我也想学，虽然我还没完全做到。

Again, else that I I found in Charlie that I want to adopt myself that I had like, I'm I have imperfectly adopted this trait into my own life.

我觉得在今天这个信息时代，口袋里随时有上百万个干扰源，专注力真的是一种超能力。

And I think especially today in the information age, when there's a million distractions sitting around our pocket, that the ability to focus is a superpower.

随着信息时代继续发展，这种能力只会变得越来越重要。

And I think it's actually gonna become more and more important as the information information age progresses.

现在是沃伦·巴菲特在说。

This is now Warren Buffett.

他说，有一次和查理一起去纽约参加所罗门兄弟的董事会。

He says, was in New York City with Charlie to attend a Solomon Brothers board meeting.

我们刚从大楼出来，站在人行道上，讨论刚才会议的内容。

We'd come out of the bill building and we were standing on the sidewalk discussing what had transpired at the meeting.

至少我以为我们是在聊天。

At least that's what I thought we were doing.

突然间，我意识到自己已经自言自语好一会儿了。

For suddenly, I realized that I'd been talking to myself for some time.

我四处张望找查理，结果看见他正上了一辆开往机场的出租车。

I looked around for Charlie only to see him climbing into the back of a taxi cab headed off to the airport.

连句再见都没有，什么都没说。

No goodbye, no nothing.

人们以为是查理的眼睛让他漏看东西。

People thinks it's Charlie's eyes that caused him to miss seeing things.

很多年前，查理因为白内障手术的并发症，失去了一只眼睛的视力。

Charlie lost his vision in one eye many years ago due to complications from a cataract surgery.

但问题不在他的眼睛。

But it's not his eyes.

而是在他的脑袋。

It's his head.

我曾经陪他等过三组红绿灯，身后一片喇叭声，他却还在分析路口的复杂问题。

I once sat through three sets of traffic lights and plenty of honking behind us as Charlie discussed some complex problems at an intersection.

当然，你不能专注到堵住交通，但我认为，能屏蔽干扰、专心于最重要的事，这想法太棒了。

So obviously, you don't you don't wanna focus on something to where you're holding up traffic, but I think the ability to eliminate distractions and focus on what is the most important is a fantastic idea for us.

这真是再好不过的建议了。

This is some some perfect advice.

找出你最擅长的事，然后一直坚持下去。

Find out where you're best at and keep and keep pounding away at it.

这一直是查理对待生活的基本态度。

This has always been Charlie's basic approach to life.

这是比尔·盖茨对查理的评价。

This is Bill Gates on Charlie.

他是我见过的思维最开阔的人。

He is truly the broadest thinker I've ever encountered.

查理能用简单的话把复杂的道理说清楚。

Charlie has the ability to capture knowledge with simple descriptions.

谈到子女的智力时，他称之为基因彩票。

When discussing the when discussing the intelligence of offspring, he refers to the genetic lottery.

谈到那些为股票期权辩护的风险投资人时，他说他们跟妓院里的钢琴师没什么两样。

When discussing venture capitalists who defend stock options, he deems them no better than the piano player in a whorehouse.

谈到效率和成本加成合同的负面影响时，他总爱说，连骡子都知道什么时候该放慢脚步。

When discussing the deleterious effects on efficiency and cost plus contracts, he likes to say even the mule knew when to slow down.

我觉得这正是芒格如此擅长教学的原因。

I think that's what makes Munger such an effective teacher.

这些话题听起来可能有点枯燥，对吧？但那可不是他全部的风格。

It's not like those are all I mean, some people might consider this a kind of like dry subject matter, right?

当他加入这些典型的芒格式比喻时，你就会忍不住笑出来。

When he adds in these like these Munger isms, you laugh.

当你在笑、在享受的时候，反而更容易把东西记下来。

And then when you're laughing or you're entertained, you're more likely to learn.

我觉得这是个特别聪明的做法。

I think it's a really smart idea.

而且我想，这种做法至少有一部分是源自富兰克林。

And I think again, one that he got from at least in part from Franklin.

明白了。

Alright.

现在来看一些芒格的名言。

So now here's some Munger quotes.

我觉得这正好印证了我刚才说的——找到你最擅长的事，然后持续深耕。

I think it hit hits on what, what I've just said about finding what you're best at and keep pounding away at it.

我很喜欢这句话，简直可以当人生座右铭。

I love this as like a life motto.

把一个简单的想法当真，认真对待。

Take a simple idea and take it seriously.

他经常提到，很多伟大的企业就是这样诞生的。

He talks a lot about how some of the great businesses were, were, were created by doing that.

他们抓住一个简单的想法，把它做到极致。

They took a simple idea and they took it to its extreme.

他们把它看得无比严肃。

They took it deadly seriously.

好了。

All right.

再来看另一句名言。

Another quote.

这是一段话。

This is a, like a paragraph.

会稍微长一点。

It's gonna be a little longer.

我们的经验一再证实了一个长期存在的观点：人生中只要抓住少数几次机会，果断地大规模行动，做一些简单而合乎逻辑的事，就往往能极大改善一生的财务状况。

Our experience tends to confirm a long held notion that being prepared on a few occasions in a lifetime to act promptly in scale and doing some simple and logical thing will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime.

那些持续探索、耐心等待、并以充满好奇心且擅长分析多重变量的头脑去观察的人，通常会遇到少数几个明显可见的重大机遇。

A few major opportunities, clearly recognizable as such, will usually come to one who continuously searches and waits with a curious mind that loves diagnosis involving multiple variables.

而你所需要做的，就是当机会来临时，敢于押上重注——用过去因谨慎和耐心积累下来的资源。

And then all that is required is a willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favorable using resources available as a result of prudence and patience in the past.

这真是个不错的框架。

That's that's a good outline.

这基本上就是伯克希尔的做事方式。

That's a good description of basically the Berkshire's MO.

我们不会去分散投资。

It's we're not gonna diversify.

我们会做足功课。

We're gonna do our homework.

所以我们会对所投资的领域了如指掌。

So we're gonna know a lot about our subject matter.

当机会来临时，大多数时候我们手里都攥着一大笔现金。

So when the opportunity does come, most of the time we're be sitting on our ass on a lot of cash.

但一旦机会出现，因为我们已经做了充分研究，它会非常明显。

But when the opportunity does come, because we've already put in the work, it's gonna be clearly recognizable.

一旦我们发现了一个巨大的机会，就不会说：‘哦，那就买一点点吧。’

It does not, so we've identified a huge opportunity, which means we're not gonna like, oh, we're buy a little part.

不，我们会全力以赴，尽可能多地投入。

No, we're gonna go all in as heavy as we can.

我们之所以能如此重仓投入，是因为过去一直谨慎管理资源，让它们慢慢积累起来。

And the reason we can go heavy all in to such a degree with our resources because we were responsible with those resources and allowed them to accumulate over time.

下一页。

The next page.

哦，这个想法是他从一个叫约翰·缪尔的人那里学来的。

Oh, this is the idea he's learned from this guy named John Muir.

那把商业看作一个生态系统呢？

What about thinking about business as an ecosystem.

我觉得把自由市场经济比作生态系统，这个角度特别有帮助。

So this is, I find it quite useful to think of a free of a free market economy as a sort of equivalent of an ecosystem.

就像动物在各自的生态位中繁荣生长，那些专注细分领域的人也能做得非常好，尤其是在互联网时代，这一点更明显。

Just as animals flourish in niche in niches, people who specialize in some narrow niche can do very well, even more true in the age of the internet.

在商业中，这句关于我刚才提到的这个观点的话，是我最喜欢的之一。

In business, this is this is one of my favorite quotes about his idea that I was just referencing.

在商业里，我们常看到，成功的模式往往极端地放大或压缩某一个或几个关键变量。

In business, we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one of the few one or a few variables.

这个想法很简单，但有人把它做到了极致，比如好市多的折扣仓储模式。

Simple idea taking very seriously, like the discount warehouses of Costco.

我也很喜欢这个想法。

Oh, I like this idea too.

我们应该把想法当成工具来看待。

We should be thinking about ideas as tools.

还有芒格提出的思维模型网络，他经常提到，我这儿就先给大家介绍一下。

Plus Munger's lattice work of mental models, which he talks about a lot, but I'm gonna introduce you to here.

查理喜欢把一个人的想法和做法比作工具。

Charlie likes the analogy of looking at one's ideas and approaches as tools.

当有更好的工具——也就是新的想法和方法——出现时，还有什么比换掉旧的、没那么有用的工具更好的呢？

When a better tool, an idea and approach, comes along, what could be better than to swap it out for your old, less useful tool?

沃伦和我经常这么做，但大多数人却总是死死抱着那些过时、没用的工具不放。

Warren and I Warren and I routinely do this, but for most people, for but most people forever forever cling forever cling to their old, less useful tools.

你不是你的想法。

So you are not your ideas.

如果冒出一个新想法，能证明你原来的某个想法是错的，或者能改进它，那就干脆扔掉它。

And if an a day idea comes along that that proves one of the ideas wrong or can improve on it in any way, just just ditch it.

你不是你的想法。

You're not your ideas.

查理的这套思维模型为他提供了一个分析框架，帮他把复杂投资问题中那些混乱不清的要素，梳理成清晰的基本原则。

So says his, meaning Charlie, his model supply the analytical structure that enables him to reduce the inherent chaos and confusion of a complex investment problem into a clarified set of fundamentals.

这些模型中特别重要的例子，比如工程学里的冗余备份系统。

Especially important examples of these models include the redundancy backup system model for engineering.

这就是他所说的留出巨大缓冲空间的理念。

So that's his idea of having a giant buffer.

还有数学里的复利模型。

The compound interest model for mathematics.

这个我们已经聊过了。

We've already discussed that.

物理学里的临界点与转折时刻模型，他称之为‘洛拉帕卢扎’，指的是多种有利因素同时发生、相互叠加的情况。

The breakpoint tipping moment model from from physics, he calls that Lollapalooza, when you have a bunch of different a bunch of different things happening usually in your favor.

这种时候，你可能一夜暴富，但有时候，它们也可能反过来把你拖垮。

That's how you get really wealthy or in some cases they can move against you.

但我们来聊聊对你有利的情况。

But let's talk about in your favor.

这种情况下，你的收益会呈非线性增长。

That has your compounds your benefits nonlinear.

他把这个叫做临界点或转折时刻，这个概念是从物理学研究中借鉴来的。

So he calls that that's stolen from his study of physics, is the break point tipping moment.

这种思维方式也被马尔科姆·格拉德威尔在他几年前出版的《引爆点》一书中推广过，讲的其实是同一个道理。

It's also called like you know what, just way to think about this, it was popularized last couple of years by Malcolm Gladwell's, his book, The Tipping Point, same thing here.

还有生物学中的现代达尔文综合模型。

And then the modern Darwinian synthesis model from biology.

他还深入研究了心理学中的认知偏差模型。

And then he also studied the cognitive misjudgment models from psychology.

这仅仅是芒格思维网格体系的基本框架，他对此有过大量阐述。

So that's that's just the basic, basic, basic outline of Munger's lattice work of mental models, which he expounds on quite a bit.

接下来我再稍微多讲一点这个内容。

So I'm gonna talk a little bit more about that.

之前，这里引用了PIMCO的比尔·格罗斯的一句话，他是固定收益领域的传奇人物，也是查理和沃伦的朋友。

Before, they have a quote here from Bill Gross of PIMCO, legendary fixed income expert, friend of Charlie and Warren's.

他说，芒格和巴菲特并不是唯一靠非商业模型取得卓越成功的顶尖投资者。

And it talks about like the, the, he says, Munger and Buffett aren't the only elite investors who use non business models to superb success.

他提到，摆在我书桌咖啡桌上的书，不是我自己的，也不是关于投资的，而是好几本历史学家写的书。

So he talks about the book that rests on my library coffee table is not any of my own or or one on investing, but several books by historians.

他说，要预测未来，没有比历史更好的老师了。

He says there's no better teacher than history in determining the future.

一本三十美元的历史书里，藏着价值数十亿美元的答案。

There are answers worth billions of dollars in a $30 history book.

所以同样地，我们也该去读历史。

So same thing, should be studying history.

明白了。

Okay.

这是查理的建议：自己学习，只有自学的人才真正自由，这也是查理的核心原则。

So this is Charlie's advice test is learn for yourself, only the autodidacts are free, and Charlie's guiding principles.

查理 painstakingly 建立了自己一套 largely 自学的体系。

Charlie painstakingly created his own largely self taught system.

说他是自学成才，这绝不是夸张。

The self taught statement is no exaggeration.

这是查理说过的一段话。

So this is a quote from Charlie.

他说：直到今天，我从未上过任何化学、经济学、心理学或商业课程。

He says, To this day, I've never taken any course anywhere in chemistry, economics, psychology, or business.

这跟我上周说的是一回事，我对正规教育挺怀疑的——凡是自己主动想学、出于内心渴望去钻研的东西，我都能学会并记得住。

This is what I was talking about last week, where I'm rather skeptical of institutionalized learning because anything I've sought out and wanted to learn myself because of what my own innate desire, I I've learned and remembered.

但如果是老师逼着我为了分数或者混学分去学的，那根本就是左耳进右耳出。

Anything somebody like a teacher made me do for a grade or to to get out of a class, like it just goes in one ear and out the other.

那种学习基本没用。

It's largely useless.

所以他说，他的清晰洞察是靠艰苦努力换来的。

So he says, his clarity is hard won.

这是他一生研究人类行为模式、商业体系以及众多其他科学领域所积累的成果。

The product of a lifetime of studying the patterns of human behavior, business systems, and a myriad of other scientific disciplines.

查理把准备、耐心、自律和客观视为他最核心的行事准则。

Charlie counts preparation, patience, discipline, and objectivity among his most fundamental guiding principles.

我们再回过头来看看，如何让自己成为一个真正有实力的人。

So go back to this idea of making yourself a formidable individual.

这些又是我们需要收入囊中的品质。

These are more traits that we want to put in our toolbox.

耐心，这方面我是一点都没有。

Patience, which I don't have any of.

准备这件事，我倒是稍微好那么一点。

Preparation, I do somewhat better on that.

自律和客观，是他最重要的行事原则。

Discipline and objectivity among his most fundamental guiding principles.

这些都是一个人特别该具备的品质。

Those are all great traits for a human being to have.

无论群体压力、情绪冲动，还是‘这次不一样’的流行说法，他都不会偏离这些原则。

He will not deviate from these principles regardless of group dynamics, emotional itches, or popular wisdom that this time is different.

只要始终坚持这些原则，就会形成芒格最广为人知的特点之一——很少买卖股票。

When faithfully adhered to, these traits result in one of the best known Munger characteristics, not buying or selling very often.

芒格和巴菲特都认为，成功的投资生涯，关键就取决于那么几个决定。

Munger, like Buffett, believes a successful investment career boils down to a handful of decisions.

所以，当查理看中一家公司时，他会重仓投入，并且通常会长期持有。

So when Charlie likes a business, he makes a very large bet and typically holds that position for a very long period.

查理管这叫‘坐着不动’的投资法，还特别提到它的种种好处。

Charlie calls it sit on your ass investing and cites its benefits.

你付给经纪人的费用更少了。

You're paying less to brokers.

你听到的胡言乱语也更少了。

You're listening to less nonsense.

如果真能成功，税务系统还会每年额外给你一到三个百分点的收益。

And if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per year.

所以，这一点在巴菲特的股东信里也详细讲过。

So again, that's another idea that was covered at length in the Buffett shareholder letters.

哦，原来如此。

Oh, okay.

股东信里还提到过另一点。

Another thing that that was covered in the shareholder letters.

巴菲特和芒格对护城河特别专注。

Buffett and Munger are laser focused on moats.

明白吗？

Okay?

那什么是护城河呢？

So and what's a moat?

查理把一家公司的竞争优势称为护城河，就是它抵御竞争的无形屏障。

Charlie refers to a company's competitive advantage as its moat, the virtual physical barrier it presents against incursions.

优秀的企业都有很深的护城河，而且会不断加宽，确保长期保护。

Superior companies have deep moats that are continuously widened to provide enduring protection.

在这方面，查理会仔细分析那些长期来看会不断侵蚀大多数企业竞争力的力量。

In this vein, Charlie carefully considers competitive destruction forces that over the long term lay siege to most companies.

几乎每一家公司，说实话，历史上所有的公司最终都会因为这些因素而衰落。

Almost every company is going to I mean, I would say every company in history is eventually going to wither away because of this.

只是有些公司能撑得久一点罢了。

Just some companies last a little longer than others.

芒格和巴菲特对这个问题格外关注。

Munger and Buffett are laser focused on this issue.

在他们漫长的职业生涯中，他们有时痛切地认识到，很少有企业能跨越几代人持续生存。

Over their long business careers, they have learned sometimes painfully that few businesses survive over multiple generations.

明白了。

Okay.

我刚才有点把自己绕进去了。

So I kind of just tripped over my own point there.

因此，他们努力寻找并投资那些有望突破这些严峻挑战的企业。

Accordingly, they strive to identify and buy only those businesses with a good chance of beating these tough odds.

所以，你可以这样理解护城河：假如我有两千亿美金，我该怎么跟这家公司竞争？

So one way to think about a moat is if you gave me, you know, $20,000,000,000, how could I compete with that company?

他们常举的例子就是可口可乐。

And the one moat they always reference is is Coca Cola.

因为可口可乐在饮料行业占据绝对主导地位，就算你给某个初创公司两千亿美元去挑战它，大概率也很难成功，至少现在不行。

Because of their dominant position in in in the beverage industry, even if you gave somebody a startup $20,000,000,000 to compete with Coke, they probably wouldn't be successful, at least not right now.

当然，最终它也会衰落，迟早会有别的公司，或者一系列公司取而代之，但这条路实在太难走了。

Eventually, obviously, will wither away and another company or maybe a series of companies will take their place, but it's extremely hard to do so.

所以，根本不存在永远不倒的企业。

So again, there's no such thing as indestructible company.

只是有些企业更难被撼动罢了。

We just, some are harder to attack than others.

他们要找的就是那种极难被攻破的企业，如果把护城河这个比喻推到极致，那就是——企业周围围着一道巨大的护城河，像座固若金汤的城堡。

And so they're looking for ones that are extremely hard to attack, and they're hard to attack if you use the, take the metaphor to its logical conclusion because they have a giant moat outside their castle.

明白了。

Okay.

查理说，他讲究极致的耐心，再加上极致的果断。

So Charlie says he practices extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness.

这是芒格说过的话。

That's a quote from Munger.

如果我们把我们最重要的那十五个决策去掉，我们的业绩也就普普通通了。

If you look at our top 15 decisions or excuse me, if you took out our top if you took our top 15 decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record.

靠的不是瞎忙活，而是惊人的耐心。

It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience.

你一直坚持自己的原则，等机会一来，就毫不犹豫地全力出击。

You stuck to your principles and when our opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.

手里攥着大把现金，干等着，总比有些处境强多了。

There are worse situations than drowning in cash and sitting, sitting, and sitting.

我记得我还没这么多现金的时候，那种日子我可不想再回去了。

I remember when I wasn't a washing cash, and I don't wanna go back.

这是查理给我们的建议。

This is Charlie's advice to us.

为品质多花点钱，也要学会从建设性的批评中吸取教训。

Pay up for quality and learn from constructive criticism.

他说，如果看See's Candies这个案例，这是他们最成功的投资之一。

He says if you if See's Candies well, this is one of their most successful investments ever.

我记得他们买下这家公司时，大概花了两千万到三千万美元，但从那以后，光是利润就累计超过了十亿美元。

I think they paid like, I don't know, 20 let's say 25 or 30,000,000 for them, and they've made in like profits that accrued since then, I think over $1,000,000,000 from See's Candies.

这简直就是印钞机。

It prints money.

真没想到，一家糖果公司能赚这么多钱。

It's outstanding how much money a candy company can make.

当年我们买See's Candies的时候，要是他们多要一百万美元，我和沃伦就直接走了。

So if See's Candies, when we were buying it, had asked for a $100,000 more, Warren and I would have walked.

我们当时真是傻得可以。

That's how dumb we were.

用这种方式回顾过去的决策，挺有意思的。

That's interesting way to analyze your past decisions.

哎，那可真是蠢透了，对吧？

Like, oh, that was really stupid, right?

所以他说，伊拉·马歇尔说，你们简直疯了。

So it says, Ira Marshall said, you guys are crazy.

有些东西你真得愿意多花钱，比如优质的企业和人才。

There are some things you should pay up for, like quality businesses and people.

你低估了品质的价值。

You are underestimating quality.

我们听了批评之后，改变了主意。

We listened to the criticism and changed our mind.

这对任何人来说都是个很好的教训。

This is a good lesson for anyone.

能够虚心接受批评，并从中学习。

The ability to take criticism constructively and learn from it.

如果你从喜诗糖果身上学到这些间接的教训，那可以说，伯克希尔正是建立在建设性批评之上的。

If you take the indirect lessons we learn from C's, you could say Berkshire was built on constructive criticism.

接下来这一页，他提到一个想法，就是说同样的情况。

Now on the very next page, he has this idea of like, say same line of this.

你得从错误中吸取教训，对吧？

You have to learn from your mistakes, right?

这可是一个一百亿的错误。

And this is a 10,000,000,000 mistake.

这挺有意思，因为我老是重复我最喜欢的一句话：人类擅长抽象思考，尽管生活中很多至关重要的东西都是抽象的。

And this is interesting, because it, I always repeat this, this favorite quote of mine, that humans score in the abstract, even though there's a lot of things that are abstractions that are extremely important in our, in our lives.

所以他说，伯克希尔历史上最严重的错误，都是错失良机。

So it says, the most extreme mistakes in Berkshire's history have been mistakes of omission.

我们看得到，但没采取行动。

We saw it, but we didn't act on it.

这些错误影响巨大，让我们损失了数十亿，可我们还是不断重犯。

They're huge mistakes, and we lost billions, and we keep doing it.

差点错过买C家糖果的机会后，我们又多次犯了类似的错误。

After nearly making a terrible mistake not buying C's candies, we made similar mistakes many times.

这些机会成本不会体现在财务报表上，但我们已经为此损失了数百亿美元。

These opportunities cost these opportunity costs don't show up on financial statements, but they've cost us many billions.

这就是我说的人类擅长抽象思考的意思。

That's what I mean about human scoring the abstract.

由于错失机会这种错误看不见，大多数人根本不会留意。

Since mistake since mistakes of omissions are, since mistakes of omission aren't visible, most people don't pay attention to them.

那查理和沃伦是怎么做的呢？

So what did Charlie and Warren do?

我们故意把错失机会的教训摆在眼前，时刻提醒自己。

We rub our noses in mistakes of omission.

刚才这段对话，来自伯克希尔的一次年度股东大会。

This whole exchange here was from a, from one of the Berkshire's annual meetings.

他们当时刚讨论完，因为股价在他们想买和能买之间涨了一点，结果错过了沃尔玛的股票。

They were just they had just gone discussing failing to buy Wal-Mart stock at the time, because the price had gone up a little bit from the time they wanted to buy and the time they could buy.

到那天为止，这个错误已经让他们损失了超过一千亿美元，现在可能更多了。

And that mistake as of that day, which might be even more now, was it cost them over $10,000,000,000.

我想打断一下查理·芒格的智慧分享，说说我一直强调的观点：书籍才是最初的链接。

So I wanna talk I wanna interrupt the wit and wisdom of Charlie Munger with this idea I've talked about many times that books are the original links.

它们把一个人的思想传递给另一个人，如此延续下去。

They they lead us from one from other people to from one person to another, so so on and so forth.

在巴菲特和芒格的著作里，提到了好几位作者和人物，我一看到就立刻买了他们的书，接下来几周打算沿着这个方向继续深入。

So there's several books and people profiled in the work of Buffett and Munger, that are now like I've immediately started buying the books, and gonna like stay down this path for a little bit in the next few weeks.

我们先从沃伦·巴菲特的股东信开始，里面多次提到查理·芒格，也谈到大卫·奥格威。

So we started with Warren Buffett's shareholder letters, talks a lot about Charlie Munger obviously in that, talks about David Ogrevy.

上周我读了大卫·奥格威，这周轮到芒格。

So I did David Ogrevy last week, did Munger this week.

下周我要读吉姆·克拉顿的那本书，就是沃伦读过他传记的那位。

Next week I'm doing the book of Jim Clayton, the guy where Warren reads his biography.

我买的是那本书，然后还收购了他创办的公司。

That's the book I bought, and then buys the guy's company.

显然，这本书我们非读不可，对吧？

Well, that obviously is the book we need to read, right?

他从这本书里学到了这么多，深受触动，以至于我最后花了上亿美元买下了这家公司。

If he was so, he learned so much from it and so compelled that I wind up buying the company for a couple $100,000,000.

查理还通过这本书向我介绍了好几位人物。

Charlie's also introduced me to several people in the book.

其中一位我想现在就跟你们说说，他叫亨利·西蒙森。

One of them is this guy I wanna tell you about right now, this guy named Henry Singleton.

他的故事收录在一本叫《局外人》的书里。

And he's profiled in this book called The Outsiders.

我简单跟你们讲讲西蒙森的事，真的特别吸引我。

Let me just run down his his tell you a little bit about Singleton real quick, because I have to find it fascinating.

人们称他为商业和棋艺双料大师。

They call him a business and chess master.

西蒙森是泰莱公司联合创始人，长期担任这家总部位于洛杉矶的多元化集团的首席执行官。

Singleton was co founder of Teledyne, and chief executive of the Los Angeles based conglomerate for three decades.

他先就读于美国海军学院，后来转学到麻省理工学院，拿到了电气工程的学士、硕士和博士学位。

He attended the Naval Academy, then transferred to MIT, where he received a bachelor's, master's, and PhD degrees in electrical engineering.

他是个极其出色的棋手，离特级大师水平只差100分，还能闭着眼睛下棋。

An enormously skilled chess player, he was only 100 points below the grandmaster level and could play without looking at the board.

从1963年到1990年掌管公司期间，Teledyne为股东带来了高达24%的年均复合回报。

From 1963 to 1990, when he was running the company, Teledyne returned an astounding 24% compound annual return to shareholders.

而同期标普500的回报率只有8%。

A this is a period when the S and P returned 8%.

他在1972到1984年间，回购了Teledyne高达90%的流通股份。

He repurchased 90% of Teledyne's outstanding shares primarily between 1972 and 1984.

作为管理者和资本配置者，西蒙森的成就在现代商业史上几乎无人能及。

Singleton built a record as a manager and capital allocator with few peers in modern business history.

查理和巴菲特一样欣赏西蒙森，他不禁问：像这样的人才和业绩，我们真的学够了吗？

Sharing Buffett's admiration for Henry Singleton, Charlie wonders, given the man's talent and record, have we learned enough from him?

当查理提出这个问题时，我就想：好吧，我得好好读读这本书里讲他的部分，因为他明显在说，这人把人生玩得太明白了。

So when Charlie asked that question, I was like, alright, I need to read the the part of this book because he's explicitly saying, like, this guy is so skilled at life.

我们该花更多时间去研究他才对。

We should be he's worthy of more study.

对吧？

Right?

接下来是沃伦·巴菲特对西尔弗曼的评价。

And then this is a quote from Warren Buffett on Singleton.

亨利·西尔弗曼拥有美国商业史上最佳的运营和资本配置纪录。

Henry Singleton had has the best operating and capital deployment record in American business.

就算把一百个顶尖商学院毕业生的成就综合起来，他们的成绩也比不上西尔弗曼。

If one took the 100 top business school graduates and made a composite of their triumphs, their records would not be as good as Singleton's.

接下来几周，大家留意一下关于西尔弗曼的播客。

So keep an eye out for a podcast in the future next few weeks with Singleton.

这是查理谈如何致富，以及如何抵御通胀。

This is Charlie on how to get rich and then also a defense against inflation.

那怎么才能致富呢？

So how to get rich?

一位年轻股东问查理，该怎么走他的路，查理回答说：我们经常收到这些来自有抱负的年轻人的问题。

A young shareholder asked Charlie how to follow in his footsteps, and Charlie brought down the house by saying, we get these questions a lot from the enterprising young.

这是个非常聪明的问题。

It is a very intelligent question.

你看到一个年纪大了却很富有的人，就会问：我怎么才能像你一样，但更快一点？

You look at some old guy who's rich and you ask, how can I become like you except faster?

接下来是他给出的回答和建议。

And then this is his his answer, his advice.

每天都要努力比早上醒来时更聪明一点。

Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.

认真负责地做好你的本职工作。

Discharge your duties faithfully and well.

一步一个脚印，你自然会进步，但不会是突然爆发式的。

Step by step, you get ahead, but not necessarily in fast spurts.

但你要通过为爆发做好准备来培养自律。

But you build discipline by preparing for fast spurts.

一天一寸，慢慢来，硬扛过去。

Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day.

归根结底，只要你活得够久，大多数人最终都会得到他们应得的。

And at the end of the day, if you live long enough, most people get what they deserve.

而他应对通胀的办法就是这个。

And then this is his defense against inflation.

他的建议是，你得减少对物质的依赖。

And his idea for us is you need to reduce your material needs.

大多数人会因为通胀而发现回报越来越低。

Most people will see declining returns due to inflation.

如果你担心通胀，最好的应对方式之一就是别给自己添太多不必要的需求。

One of the great defenses if you're worried about inflation is to not have a lot of silly needs in your life.

你其实不需要那么多物质东西。

You don't need a lot of material goods.

这话两百年前本杰明·富兰克林也早就说过。

So that could easily been said two hundred years prior by Benjamin Franklin.

哦，这倒挺有意思。

Oh, so this is interesting.

如果你听过了我做的所有创始人播客，那我之前提过好几次这个人了。

I've if you've listened to every single Founders podcast I've done so far, you, I've mentioned this guy a few times.

他是好市多的创始人。

He's the founder of Costco.

他叫吉姆·西内加尔。

His name's Jim Senegal.

芒格基本上最欣赏的、不属于伯克希尔的公司就是这家。

Munger, basically if he's, I think the business he most admires that's not part of Berkshire.

也就是说，除了可口可乐、GEICO这些公司之外，他最看重的就是好市多。

So like outside of Coca Cola and GEICO and the rest of these is Costco.

吉姆是好市多的联合创始人之一。

And Jim is one of the co founders of Costco.

让我念一下这段话。

Well, let me just read this.

这是芒格对西内加尔的评价。

So this is Munger on Senegal.

你根本想象不到，好市多的仓储运营有多高效、多精细。

You wouldn't you you just wouldn't believe how efficient and sophisticated Costco's warehouse operation is.

吉姆·塞内加尔是个极其出色的商业操盘手。

Jim Senegal is a fabulous business operator.

他就像卡内基、洛克菲勒，或者詹姆斯·J·希尔那样的人物。

He's like a Carnegie, a Rockefeller, or a James J.

希尔。

Hill.

我先停一下。

Let me pause there.

你没听过詹姆斯·J·希尔？

Never heard of James J.

希尔。

Hill.

芒格好几次提到过他。

Munger mentions him several times.

刚找到他的传记。

Just found his biography.

刚买了他的传记。

Just bought his biography.

所以这个也得提一提。

So that's gonna come up too.

我觉得他是过去一个世纪最顶尖的五大零售商之一。

I consider him to be one of the top five retailers of the past century.

那我为什么买詹姆斯·希尔的传记呢？

And why did I buy James Hill's biography?

因为芒格——我特别敬佩的人——把他和卡内基、洛克菲勒并列提及。

Because he Munger, who I admire, just put him in the same sentence as Carnegie and Rockefeller.

所以我们必须研究他。

So we have to study him.

我们别无选择。

We have no choice.

这根本不是我说了算的事。

It's not even my decision.

我们别无选择。

We have to.

就像我认为他是过去一个世纪五大零售巨头之一一样。

Just as I consider him to be one of the top five retailers of the past century.

他确实厉害到这个地步。

He's that good.

他每周工作八十个小时，为整个团队树立了极佳的榜样——关于敬业精神、诚信、忠诚，还有自律。

He works eighty hours a week and sets a terrific example for his entire organization in terms of work ethic, integrity, loyalty, and selfishness.

他不仅是务实的领导者，更是道德上的楷模。

He's a moral leader as well as a practical leader.

这些都不是小节。

These are not minor virtues.

在好市多，我们就有一位活生生的山姆·沃尔顿。

We have our own living, breathing breathing Sam Walton at Costco.

所以我觉得芒格，他以前是——我不确定现在是不是了——但以前确实是好市多的董事会成员。

So I think Munger, he used to be I don't know if he still is, but he used to be on the board of Costco.

我之所以提到吉姆·塞内加尔，是因为如果你听我的播客，就会知道这个人。当年我写《一切皆可购》那本书，讲亚马逊和贝佐斯的时候，贝佐斯说，他和塞内加尔的那次会面彻底改变了他的人生。

And the reason I I say if you listen to my podcast, know who Jim Senegal is because when I covered The Everything Store, the book on Amazon and Jeff Bezos, Bezos said that his meeting with Senegal was life changing.

他们是在2000年或者2001年见面的。

They met in like 2000 or 2001.

我觉得应该是2001年，互联网泡沫破灭之后。

I think it was 2001 after the dot com bust.

他们大概是在星巴克碰面，或者一起喝杯咖啡，反正就是那种场合。

They they I think they met at like a Starbucks or met for coffee or whatever the case is.

吉姆直接跟贝佐斯讲了自己在商业上积累的经验。

And, you know, Jim just laid out to Jeff what he's learned about business.

没过多久，贝佐斯就开始特别热衷于降低成本。他有一句名言，说世界上只有两种企业。

And shortly thereafter, Jeff had a passion for trying to reduce he says like the Jeff has this quote where he's like, there's two types of businesses in the world.

一种是想办法怎么多收钱，另一种是想办法怎么少收钱。

One's to try to figure out how to cost charge more and one that figures how how to charge less.

我们要做后者。

We're gonna be the the latter.

这个想法直接来自吉姆·塞内加尔。

That comes directly from Jim Senegal.

亚马逊Prime的模式跟好市多非常像，好市多的利润主要来自会员费。

The idea Amazon Prime looks extremely similar to Costco makes almost all their money on their membership program.

所以，这些想法是杰夫·贝佐斯借鉴来的，而且他这么做完全合理，因为他很聪明。

So again, these are ideas that Jeff Bezos stole rightfully, because he's smart.

他当然会研究过去的那些企业家。

He's gonna obviously study entrepreneurs of the past.

在他之前已经有人成功了，他会吸取那些真正有价值的想法。

People have been successful before he was, and take the ideas that that that are valuable.

明白了。

Okay.

刚才我跟你说的这些内容，还有我展开讲的那些，都来自这本书的前半部分。

So now, the the the all everything I just read to you and just expounded on came from like the first half of the book.

这本书的前半部分就像一堆零散的想法，全是他的点子。

The first half of the book is like this weird like collection of just ideas he has.

后半部分则是好几场大型演讲。

The second half is all these giant talks.

我说的是整整两三百页的大部头内容。

And I'm talking like 300, 250 pages of a giant book here.

所以很明显，不可能把所有内容都读完，我就挑一些我特别喜欢的引文和观点分享一下。

So I I mean, obviously, it would be impossible to read them all, but I'm just gonna pull out some quotes and ideas that I that I really like.

其中有些话，我其实以前听过。

Some of these I've actually heard.

先听演讲，再读文字，感觉特别好。

And it was nice to to have heard the speech first and then read it after.

我觉得这样帮我更好地理解了内容。

I think it it helped in my understanding.

首先，他在1986年哈佛的毕业典礼上发表了一次演讲。

But first, the the he's giving a commencement speech at Harvard in 1986.

我觉得这段话特别有意思。

And I just thought this paragraph was interesting.

它说，大多数毕业演讲者都会给出一套通往幸福生活的指南。

It says, most graduation speakers choose to lay out a prescription for attaining a happy life.

对吧？

Right?

每个人上台都会跟你分享他们学到的经验。

So everybody go gets up there and they give you their advice on what they've learned.

但查理用逆向思维，在演讲中有力地提出了相反的观点：他告诉你毕业生该怎么做才能陷入痛苦。

Charlie, using the inversion principle, he recommends in the speech, compellingly makes the opposite case by setting forth what a graduate may do to reach a state of misery.

所以他的核心理念就是‘反过来想，总是反过来想’。

So he's like, this idea if you wanna find out his idea of invert, always invert.

他不是问‘我该怎么解决这个问题？’

And so instead of saying, how do I solve this problem?

而是反过来想：我该怎么避免它？

Like how do I work backwards?

比如说，他举了个例子，如果你的目标是帮助印度人民，对吧？

Well, it talks about like the example I think he uses is like, if you wanna learn, like if your goal is, okay, I wanna help the people of India, right?

那你就反过来想，哪些行为会伤害到印度人民？

Start with what are the actions I would take if I want if to that would hurt the people of India, right?

这样你就能用完全不同的角度看待同一个问题，然后避开这些做法。

And it makes you think about the same problem in a vastly different way, and then avoid those actions.

所以他是在告诉我们，生活中哪些事情绝对不能做。

So he's doing this to he's telling us what to avoid in life.

他特别强调要保持清醒。

And one of this is he he's really big on staying sober.

他说，我年轻时最要好的四个朋友，个个聪明、正直、幽默。

So he says, the four closest friends of my youth were highly intelligent, ethical, humorous types.

他们家境良好，人缘也不错。

They favored they were favored in person and background.

但其中有两个人早早去世了，酗酒是其中一个原因。

Two are long dead with alcohol a contributing factor.

第三个还活着，但活着跟死了也没啥区别。

And a third is a living alcoholic, if you call that living.

虽然每个人容易上瘾的程度不同，但成瘾往往悄无声息地发生——那些让人沉沦的束缚起初轻得根本感觉不到，等你意识到时，已经再也挣脱不开了。

While susceptibility varies, addiction can happen to any of us through a subtle process where the bonds of degradation are too light to be felt, and they until they are too strong to be broken.

可我活了六十多年，还没遇到过谁因为害怕和逃避这种隐蔽的毁灭之路而让生活变得更糟的。

And yet, I have yet to meet anyone in over six decades of life whose life was worsened by fear and avoidance of such a deceptive pathway to destruction.

所以他是在提醒我们：别喝酒，别碰毒品。

So he's telling us, hey, don't don't drink and don't do drugs.

再来聊聊查理总结的那些让人痛苦不堪的生活准则。

Charlie's, more on Charlie's keys to a miserable life.

他一会儿要讲的，我想大概有三四条吧？

So he's gonna give us, I think there's what, three or four of them here?

第一条，别守信用。

First, be unreliable.

他还是在说，如果你想过得痛苦，就照这些做法去做。

So again, he's saying, if you want a miserable life, these are the traits you should do.

显然，我们不想错过你的人生，所以我们要反其道而行之。

Obviously, we don't wanna miss your life, so we're gonna be doing the opposite.

首先，做个不可靠的人。

First, be unreliable.

别信守你答应过要做的事。

Do not faithfully do what you have engaged to do.

只要你能把这一条养成习惯，就足以抵消你所有美德的总和，不管它们有多了不起。

If you only if you will only master this one habit, you will more than counterbalance the combined effects of all your virtues, howsoever great.

那我先停一下。

So let me pause there.

这话可真够狠的。

That's a hell of a statement.

光是不可靠，就能让你错失人生中很多机会。

Just being unreliable will foreclose many opportunities in your life.

你再优秀都没用。

It doesn't even matter how great you are.

他在说，如果你不可靠，没人会信任你，也没人愿意跟你合作。

He's saying that if you're unreliable, no one's gonna be able to trust or work with you.

所以，你将来根本别想得到任何好处。

Therefore, you're not gonna reap any benefits in the future.

如果你喜欢被人不信任、被排除在最优秀的人才和社交圈之外，那这套方法正适合你。

If you like being distrusted and excluded from the best human contribution and company, this prescription is for you.

只要养成这个坏习惯，你就会永远当寓言里的那只兔子，只不过不是被一只优秀的乌龟超过，而是被成群结队的平庸乌龟超过，甚至还有一些拄着拐杖的平庸乌龟。

Master this one bad habit, and you will always play the role of the hare in the fable, except that instead of being outrun by one fine turtle, you will be outrun by hordes and hordes of mediocre turtles, and even some mediocre turtles on crutches.

你明白吧，他把这个很重要的观点，跟那个经典的龟兔赛跑寓言联系起来，用乌龟和兔子的画面来呈现。

See what I mean about, like, he's taking this really important idea, but that visualization of the turt the the classic fable, the turtles and hare, or turtle and hare, whatever you wanna call it.

我读到这儿的时候，脑子里就浮现出小时候看过的那种卡通画面，对吧？

Now, and when I'm reading, I picture that that like cartoon I watched when I was younger or something like that, right?

然后他还加了‘平庸的乌龟’这一层意思。

And then he adds mediocre turtles.

你能想象，如果你不可靠，会是什么后果吗？

Could you imagine if you're unreliable?

你再聪明、再有能力都没用，只要你不靠谱，那些你都觉得不如你的人，反而在生活里比你过得好。

Doesn't matter how smart you and capable you are because you're unreliable, you're gonna have people that you deem less skilled than you actually do better in life?

这简直就是个人版的地狱。

That's that's like a a little version of personal hell.

对吧？

Right?

更别说那些连拐杖都用上的平庸乌龟了，因为你不靠谱，他们照样能把你甩在后头。

But then the idea that you're gonna have mediocre turtles on crutches because you're unreliable, they're still kicking your ass.

我的第二个痛苦秘诀是：只从自己的经历中学习，完全忽略别人通过经验总结出来的智慧和教训。

My second prescription for misery is to learn everything you possibly can from your own experience, minimizing what you learn vicariously from the good and bad experience of others living in debt.

他在说，别去研究那些顶尖或最差的人是怎么做的。

So he's talking about, you know, don't worry about studying what the best and worst of whatever people figured out.

只相信你自己亲身体验到的东西。

Do it only on firsthand experience.

看看你单靠这个能走多远。

See how far you get.

这就能解释他为什么读这么多传记了，因为他不想经历这些。

That's for a good key on why he reads so many biographies, because I he doesn't wanna do this.

这种做法必然导致痛苦和平庸的成就。

This prescription is a sure shot producer of misery and second rate achievement.

人这一辈子只有一次机会。

We only get one shot at life.

你难道不想发挥自己真正的潜力吗？

Do you not wanna ever tap into the potential that you have?

你就觉得：没事，当个二流的也挺好。

You're just like, no, no, I'm cool being second rate.

只要看看周围，就能清楚看到不从别人错误中学习的后果。

You can see the results of not learning from others' mistake by simply looking about you.

这让我想找个词来形容……

This is gets rather what's the word I'm looking for?

他批评人类的这些观点，其实挺有争议的。

This is, like, controversial where he criticizes humans.

对吧？

Right?

所以他讲，只要环顾四周，就能看到不从他人错误中学习的后果。

So he says, you can see the results of not learning from others' mistakes by simply looking about you.

人类常见的灾难中，有多少缺乏原创性啊。

How little originality there is in the common disasters of mankind.

酒后驾车致死、鲁莽驾驶致残、染上无法治愈的性病、原本聪明的大学生沦为邪教洗脑的行尸走肉、因重复前人明显错误而倒闭的企业、各种群体性愚行，诸如此类，不一而足。

Drunk driving deaths, reckless driving maimings, incur incurable venereal diseases, conversion of bright college students into brainwashed zombies as members of destructive cults, business failures through repetition of obvious mistakes made by predecessors, various forms of crowd folly, and so on and so on.

所以他的意思是，如果人类真的能学会从别人身上吸取教训，或者我们真去培养这种能力，就不会有人一再犯前人早就犯过的错误了。

So he's saying if people were actually if the standard default condition of human beings would actually capable of learning from other people, or we were, or we, we actually tried to obtain that skill, you wouldn't have people making mistakes that other humans have made in the past already.

回避间接经验的另一个方面，就是忽视前人最出色的工作成果。

The other aspect of, of avoiding vicarious wisdom is the rule of not learning from the best work done before yours.

曾经有个人，尽管起步艰难，在解析几何上也遭遇重重困难，却依然刻苦钻研前辈们的成果。

There was once a man who assiduously mastered the work of his best predecessors despite a poor start and a very tough time in analytical geometry.

最终，他自己的研究引起了广泛关注，他说：‘如果我看得比别人更远，那是因为我站在了巨人的肩膀上。’

Eventually, his own work attracted wide attention, and he said of his work, if I've seen a little farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants.

那么，他这话到底想告诉我们什么？

So what is he telling us right there?

他想告诉我们两点。

He's telling us two things.

要学会反过来想，永远反过来想，因为这正是他演讲的核心。

Invert, always invert, because that's the whole point of the speech he's doing.

第二点，要向前辈学习。

And two, learn from your predecessors.

向他们学习。

Learn from them.

一个普通人，如果能吸取过去成功与失败的经验，并用在自己生活中，往往比那些天赋出众却不懂借鉴的人走得更远。

You don't, you could take an average person that has the knowledge of what worked and didn't work in the past, and that applies to their life, will get further than the per, than the brilliant person that doesn't.

我给你的第三个痛苦建议是：一旦在人生的战场上遭遇第一次、第二次或第三次重大挫折，就干脆躺平，放弃挣扎。

My third prescription to you to you for misery is to go down and stay down when you get your first, second, or third severe reverse in the battle of life, meaning you quit.

一点小小的困难，你就直接放弃了。

A little bit of adversity, you just gave up.

因为世上的逆境太多了，就算再幸运、再聪明的人，迟早也会被困在痛苦里，无法脱身。

Because there's so much adversity out there, even for the lucky and the wise, this will guarantee that in due course, you will be permanently mirrored in misery.

我给你的最后一个建议，是别忽视一个我小时候听过的故事：有个乡下人说，‘我要是知道我会死在哪儿，我就永远不去那儿。’

My final prescription for you for a life of fuzzy thinking and infelicity is to ignore a story they told me when I was very young about a rustic who said, I wish I knew where I was going to die, then I'd never go there.

现在他讲的其实是约翰尼·卡森，就是那位老牌主持人，这个故事正是关于‘逆向思考’的，源自卡森的启发。

So now he's he's talking about he's actually Johnny Carson, like the old this is this is a lesson about inverting that you learned from Johnny Carson.

因为卡森当年也做过一场非常相似的演讲。

So because Carson gave a speech very similar.

我本该从这里开始讲的。

I should have said this beginning.

卡森的演讲和芒格在这场毕业典礼上的发言几乎一模一样。

Carson gave a speech very similar to the one Munger's giving at this commencement address.

卡森的做法是，不直接研究怎么达成目标X，而是反过来问：怎么才能避免出现非X？

So this is what Carson did was to approach the study of how to create x by turning that question backward.

也就是说，他通过研究如何制造非X，来理解如何创造X。

That is by studying how to create non x.

伟大的数学家雅可比也有和卡森完全相同的思维方式，他以不断重复一句话而闻名。

The great the great mathematician Jacobi had exactly the same same approach as Carson and was known for his constant repetition of one phrase.

反过来想，总是反过来想。

Invert, always invert.

正如雅可比所知，很多事情的本质就是，许多难题只有倒过来思考才能解决。

It is in the nature of things, as Jacobi knew, that many hard problems are solved only when they are addressed backward.

在我看来，作为一个传记迷，查尔斯·达尔文如果按1986年哈佛毕业生的排名，大概只算中等水平，但他如今却成了科学史上的名人。

In my opinion, as a certified biography nut, that Charles Darwin, would have ranked near the middle of Harvard grad Harvard School graduating class of 1986, Yet he is now famous in the history of science.

所以他是在问：这到底是怎么发生的？

And so he's he's he's asking like how did this happen?

就像我刚才说的，你遇到这样一个人。

Like you have somebody this is what I was just saying.

你有这么一个人，按毕业时的排名来看，也就是个中等水平。

Like you have somebody that's average in terms of like where they would have appeared in a graduating class.

但正是他的思维方式，才让他脱颖而出，最终取得了非凡的成就。

Yet because of their approach, actually is what led to like the differentiation, what led to their outside success.

所以，达尔文的成就很大程度上归功于他的工作方式，这种方式完全违背了我所有关于痛苦的准则，尤其是他始终优先关注那些与自己已有的、费尽心血建立的理论相矛盾的证据。

So it says Darwin's result was was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority and attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard won theory he already had.

相比之下，大多数人一开始就能快速得出结论，之后更会强化这种倾向，把新出现的、与自己观点相悖的信息扭曲掉，以确保原有的结论不受动摇。

In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact.

这又回到了他的工具思维——把想法当成工具来看待。

So it goes back to his tool, thinking about ideas as tools.

有些人会觉得，这个想法已经成了我身体的一部分。

Some people are like, this idea is now a part of me.

我不能放弃它，因为我是个好人，所以这个想法一定是对的。

I can't, like, I'm a good person, so I, this idea is good.

但与此同时，新的信息一直在涌来。

Meanwhile, there's new information coming in.

查尔斯会毫不犹豫地丢掉旧的想法。

Charles would just get rid of his old idea.

芒格也是这样做的。

So would Munger.

而他说，大多数人并不是这样做的。

And he's saying that most people don't.

他们总是排除那些与自己观点相悖的信息，好让原先的结论始终不变。

They're, they, they, get rid of disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact.

他们成了菲利普·威利所描述的那种人。

They become people of whom Philip Wiley observed.

他们已知的和永远学不会的东西之间，连一分钱都塞不进去。

You couldn't squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.

如果你忽视客观性，那你不仅忽略了达尔文的教训，也忽略了爱因斯坦的启示。

If you minimize objectivity, you ignore not only a lesson from Darwin, but also one from Einstein.

爱因斯坦说过，他成功的理论都源于好奇心、专注力、毅力和自我批判。

Einstein said that his successful theories came from curiosity, concentration, perseverance, and self criticism.

所以如果你不进行自我批判，那本质上就是拒绝抛弃自己的错误想法。

So if you don't engage in self criticism, I mean, that's essentially like getting rid of your bad ideas.

他所说的自我批判，指的是去检验并彻底推翻自己深爱的那些观点。

And by self criticism, he meant testing and destruction of his own well loved ideas.

好的。

Okay.

我刚才又把我的观点重申了一遍。

So I just walked over my point again.

行了。

Alright.

我们继续往下说。

Let's move forward.

接下来这个演讲讲的是世俗智慧、思维模型之类的。

So this next talk is about worldly wisdom, mental models, etcetera.

他说这让我能开始谈世俗智慧了，这是一个我特别感兴趣的话题，因为我觉得现代教育体系很少能有效地传授这方面的内容。

So he says that enables me to start talking about worldly wisdom, a much broader topic that interests me because I think all too little of it is delivered by modern educational systems, at least in an effective way.

他一直在批评学术界。

So he constantly criticizing academia.

他说学校根本没在真正教你东西。

He's saying it's not really teaching you.

他教你专精某一件事，但实际上你应该从不同领域和学科中汲取知识。

He's teaching you how to master like one thing when you should take be learning from different domains and different subjects.

他把这叫做学术界的割裂化。

He calls it like the balkanization of academia.

就像那句老话：手里只有锤子的人，看什么都像钉子。

It's like the old saying, to to the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

当然，整骨师行医的方式就是这样的。

And of course, that's the way the chiropractor goes about practicing medicine.

但这种思维方式和处事方式简直是灾难性的。

But that's a perfectly disastrous way to think and a perfectly disastrous way to operate in the world.

你必须掌握多种思维模型。

So you've got to have multiple mental models.

其中一种你必须学会的思维模型是概率。

One of the mental models you have to learn is probability.

如果你不掌握这种基础却有点反直觉的概率数学，那你这一生就会像一个独腿的人参加踢腿比赛一样惨。

If you don't get this elementary but mildly unnatural mathematics of elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through life, then you then you go through a long life like a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.

你这是在给其他人巨大的优势。

You're giving a huge advantage to everybody else.

所以你得好好学概率。

So you have to study probability.

他还有更多建议要告诉我们。

He's got more advice for us.

凡事都要从为什么开始。

Always start with why.

他提到的那封信或指令，是讲博朗公司的事，以及他从那里学到的东西。

If you wrote a letter or directive in the bra he's talking about the the Braun company and what he learned from them.

如果你在博朗公司写信或下达指令，让人做件事却不说明原因，你肯定会丢工作。

If you wrote a a letter or directive in the Braun company telling somebody to do something and you didn't tell them why, you would get fired.

你可能会问，这为什么这么重要？

You might ask why is this so important?

说到底，这还是心理学的一个原则。

Well, again, that's a rule of psychology.

你也要研究心理学。

You have to study psychology as well.

如果你总是告诉别人原因，他们就会更理解，觉得更重要，也更愿意配合。

If you always tell people why, they'll understand it better, they'll consider it more important, and they'll be more likely to comply.

即使他们不明白你的理由，你也更有可能得到他们的配合。

Even if they don't understand your reason, you'll be far more likely to comply.

有一本书是查理特别喜欢的，作者是罗伯特·西奥迪尼。

So from one of the books, one of Charlie's favorite books is by Robert Cialdini.

书名叫《影响力：说服的心理学》。

It's called The Psychology of Influence of Persuasion.

我很久以前读过这本书。

I read it a long time ago.

其实我读过两遍。

I think I read it twice, actually.

书里有个例子，讲的是他们在办公室做的一项实验，排队用复印机的时候。

And there's a a in a the book that actually illustrates this where they do an experiment where there's a long line of like the photocopy machine in the office.

如果你说：‘我能插个队吗？’

And if you ask, hey, can I get ahead of you?

就这句话而已。

That's all.

就是简单问一句：‘我能插个队吗？’

It's just like, hey, can I cut you in line?

他们一般会拒绝。

They'll say no.

但如果你说：‘嘿，我能插个队吗？’

But if you say, I Hey, can I get ahead of you?

然后再加上一个理由。

I have then you tell the reason why.

理由是什么其实根本不重要。

It doesn't even matter what the reason is.

比如说：‘我五分钟后有个会。’

Maybe it's like, Oh, I have a meeting in five minutes.

大多数人其实都会让你插队。

Most people will will let you cut ahead of them.

他们甚至还做过实验，直接说：‘我能插个队吗？’

And then they even tested it by saying, Hey, can I cut you in line?

我得去复印东西。

I have to make copies.

但这根本算不上什么正当理由。

But that's not really a reason.

只要对方明白了你的原因，人们就更愿意配合。

But the fact that they understood why, people are will more willing to comply.

这就像一种挺奇怪的人类心理小技巧。

It's like a weird, you know, hack of human psychology.

明白了。

Alright.

这些就是查理最推崇的一些观点和模型。

So these are ideas and models that Charlie likes most.

另外，我们还从大卫·奥格威那里学到，如果一则广告在一个国家有效，它在其他国家也大概率会有效。

And then also an indication where we learned from David Ogivvy that if an ad works in one country, it'll probably work in others.

这大概就是奥格威发现广告能在多个国家都起作用的原因。

This is probably why Ogivvy found that ads worked in multiple countries.

所以，备份系统的工程思维是一个非常强大的理念。

So it says the engineering idea of a backup system is a very powerful idea.

我之前稍微提过这一点。

I mentioned this a little bit earlier.

还有工程里的断点概念，这也是一个非常有力的模型。

The engineering idea of breakpoints, that's a very powerful model too.

临界质量这个概念，源自物理学。

The notion of a critical mask our mass, that comes out of physics.

它同样是一个非常强大的模型。

It is also a very powerful model.

接下来最可靠的模型来自生物学和生理学，毕竟，我们所有人都是由基因决定的，本质上非常相似。

The next most reliable models are from biology and physiology because after all, all of us are programmed by our genetic makeup to be much the same.

就像一个使用工具的人必须了解工具的局限一样，人使用自己的认知系统时，也得清楚它的边界。

And so just just as a man working with a tool has to know its limitations, a man working with his cognitive apparatus has to know its limitations.

我称之为误判心理学的东西，是特别值得学习的。

The psychology of misjudgment, as I call it, is a terribly important thing to learn.

所以他接着问：为什么误判心理学这么重要，值得深入研究？

And so he continues, like, why is the psychology of misjudgment so important to study?

他说，那些极其聪明的人，正是因为忽视了这一点，才犯下荒唐透顶的错误。

He says terribly smart people make totally bonkers mistakes by failing to pay heed to it.

事实上，过去两三年里，我就在几件重要的事情上吃过这种亏。

In fact, I've done it several times during the last two or three years in a very important way.

你永远不可能彻底摆脱犯傻的错误。

You never get totally over making silly mistakes.

还有句来自帕斯卡的话，我一直觉得是思想史上特别精准的洞察。

There's another saying that comes from Pascal that I've always considered one of the really accurate observations in the history of thought.

帕斯卡说，人的头脑，同时既是宇宙的荣耀，也是宇宙的耻辱。

Pascal said, the mind of of man at one and the the mind of man at one and the same time is both the glory and the shame of the universe.

说得太对了。

And that's exactly right.

它拥有巨大的力量。

It has this enormous power.

但它也有许多常见的故障，常常导致得出错误的结论。

However, it also has these standard malfunctions that often cause it to reach wrong conclusions.

它还让人极易被他人操控。

It also makes man extraordinarily subject to manipulation by others.

比如，希特勒的军队中大约有一半是虔诚的天主教徒。

For example, roughly half of the army of Adolf Hitler was composed of believing Catholics.

只要心理操控得当，人类会做出的事，真是令人惊讶。

Given enough clever psychological manipulation, what human beings will do is quite interesting.

接着，他会再次提到这个观点，就是把经济比作生态系统。

Then, he's gonna touch on this idea again, where he's gonna repeat himself, the economy as an ecosystem.

就像动物在各自的生态位中繁荣生长一样，那些在商业领域专注某一方向并因此变得非常出色的人，往往能发现别人无法获得的绝佳商机。

Just as animals flourish in niches, similarly, people who specialize in the business world and get very good because they specialize frequently find good economics that they wouldn't get any other way.

这是芒格谈沃尔顿，他提过好多次。

This is Munger on Walton, which he mentions a bunch of times.

他非常敬重沃尔顿。

He holds him in high regard.

他说，想想沃尔玛从阿肯色州的一家小店起步，对抗拥有品牌、声誉和数十亿资产的西尔斯，这事儿挺有意思。

And he says it's quite interesting to think about Walmart start starting from a single store in Arkansas against Sears with its name, reputation, and all of its billions.

一个住在本顿维尔、身无分文的人，是怎么超越西尔斯的？

How does a guy in Bentonville, Arkansas with no money blow right past blow right by Sears?

而这一切都发生在他有生之年。

And he does it in his own lifetime.

事实上，他创业时已经年纪不小了，那时他开第一家店就已经挺老了。

In fact, during his own late lifetime, because he was already pretty old by the time he started out with just one little store.

我记得他开第一家沃尔玛的时候，大概四十二四十五岁左右。

I think he was like 42 or 45, something like that when he oh, sorry, the first Walmart.

他在连锁零售这一行里，比谁都更拼命、也做得更出色。

He played the chain store game harder and better than anyone else.