“我不再假装了”——我对财务与财务规划分析的坦诚看法 – Sarah Schlott

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这里是Data Rails为您带来的《FPNA今日谈》。

From data rails, this is FPNA today.

欢迎收听《FPNA今日谈》，我是主持人Glenn Hopper。今天我们的嘉宾是Sarah Schlott，一位FP&A顾问、战略建模师，也是现代金融领域最直言不讳的声音之一。如果您读过她的文章，就会知道她从不拐弯抹角。她曾在高速发展的SaaS企业和私募支持的公司领导财务工作，从零开始重建预测系统，并挑战了企业财务中最神圣的惯例。

Welcome to FPNA today. I'm your host, Glenn Hopper. Today, we're joined by Sarah Schlott, an FP and A advisor, strategic modeler, and one of the clearest voices in modern finance. If you've read her writing, you know she doesn't pull any punches. She's led finance inside high growth SaaS and PE backed companies, rebuilt forecasting systems from the ground up, and challenged the most sacred rituals in corporate finance.

在本期节目中，我们将深入探讨FP&A领域存在的问题及其解决方案。Sarah，欢迎来到节目。

In this episode, we're digging into what's broken in FP and A and how to fix it. Sarah, welcome to the show.

非常感谢邀请我，哇，这个介绍真是...我不知道该感到紧张还是特别开心。我读过很多评论说这个节目形式像团体治疗，那我们就开始这场'治疗对话'吧。

Thanks so much for having me and wow. What an intro. I don't know if I should be intimidated or really happy about that. So, you know, I've read a lot of comments that this format feels like group therapy. So let's let's get into the therapy discussion.

我可能会成为你遇到过最糟糕的治疗师。

I'm gonna I'm gonna be the worst therapist you've ever had. It's gonna be

可能我也是。

Probably me too.

在为节目做准备时，我阅读了你的大量文章。我知道你从临时账单员一路成长为现在的战略财务领导者。能否请你分享一下你的职业历程，谈谈这段经历如何塑造了你对优秀财务领导力的理解？

So Well, when we were doing background for the show, obviously, read a a lot of your writings. And I know you've had this rise from billing temp, right, like, all the way up to now being the strategic finance leader. So with that in mind, I'm wondering if you can kinda walk us through your background and your journey and talk about how the path that you've carved out, how that shaped your view of what good finance leadership really looks like.

好的，这个问题信息量很大。这是一段漫长而艰辛的旅程，期间经历过很多次碰壁。

Yes. Well, there's a lot there. That's kind of a loaded question. It's been a long laborious journey with a lot of like head banging against the window. Right?

最初我出于生计压力接受了临时账单员的工作，意外加入了一家正处于高速成长期、寻求私募投资的初创公司。数据、流程、人员——每件事都至关重要，但整个体系从头到尾都问题重重。不幸的是所有责任都落在我头上，而我倾向于极端负责。回想最初几年，更多是害怕犯错而非真正理解问题所在。

But I started in in a billing temp role really just looking for work kind of out of desperation. When I was dropped right into the middle of a startup company that was in a high growth phase looking to become PE backed. So data, processes, people, it all mattered and none of it was working beginning to end. But unfortunately my name was on everything and I I tend to take more of an extreme ownership. And I think back then in those first few years, it was more about not wanting to be wrong than it was, okay.

不，等等。这就是我想要引领的方式。因此很自然地，当收入未达标是因为我负责开票时，我就是那个被问责的人。正如我之前提到的，问题在于没有人掌握干净的数据。

No. Wait. This is the way that I wanna lead. And so naturally, when revenue missed because I was a billing tent, I was the one that got the questions. And as I was kinda mentioning before, problem is that no one had clean data.

于是我开始深挖，跨部门追踪数字，理清下游影响，同时也分析哪些数据和流程传递到我这里时可能导致了交接的混乱。结果发现通常是流程早期就出了问题，而非人员失误。这种好奇心很自然地转化成了掌控力——我不只是修正公式或流程，而是重构了企业自上而下和自下而外的自我认知方式。

So I started digging, tracing the numbers across the silos, figuring out downstream impacts but also what data and processes were coming to me that maybe made that baton handoff kinda clunky and messy. And it turned out that it was usually a process break long before it was a people break. And then so naturally that curiosity, it turned into control. Right? I wasn't just fixing the formulas or fixing the process, but I was reworking how the business saw itself from the top down and the bottom up.

这就是我现在典型的领导方式——带着更强的好奇心介入：我们为什么要追踪这些数字？哪些环节的断裂导致无法标记早期预警信号？更重要的是对齐和转译，确保我们追踪的指标和调控手段真正契合端到端的业务流程，而非仅遵循自上而下的指令。

And that's typically how I lead now by stepping into more of a aggressive curiosity. Why are we asking in trying to track these numbers, but what is breaking along the way that's not making it possible to flag these early indicators? Right? More about alignment and translation and making sure that the numbers that we're trying to track as well as the levers that we're trying to pull really fit the process of the business end to end and not just like a top down directive.

没错。结合当下技术发展来看很有意思——虽然我最初说的是中小企业领域，但实际上任何规模企业都可能存在流程缺陷。现在到处都在鼓吹自动化，想着'能不能加点AI让它更好'。但糟糕的流程自动化后只会更糟，难道不该先修复流程本身吗？

Yeah. And it's interesting now with where technology is. I started to say in the SMB space, but really this is you can have bad processes at in any size company, but there's so much push towards automation. And can you sprinkle some AI on this and and make it better? But, you know, if you have a bad process, are you gonna automate a bad process, or are you gonna go back and fix the process first?

就像你作为开票临时工的经历——虽然处于组织最底层，却要为继承的烂流程担责。但这正是我们的学习契机：看到基层员工如何被置于糟糕境地，用错误数据作答。所以首要任务是修复流程，毕竟自动化和数据质量都建立在清晰流程基础上，一切都始于优质数据和干净流程。

So I think, like, you understood. I mean, in being a billing temp, you're, like, the lowest person in the order there, but you're being held accountable and responsible for it for a bad process that you inherited. But that's we learn from that and see where, wow, this is where the junior person here is is put in a a terrible spot and ask questions with with bad data. So there's one fix your processes because, you know, I I think automation and data kinda go together in in clean process. Then it it all starts with good data and clean processes.

但如今随着自动化预期越来越高，必须采取自下而上的方式——理解团队每个成员的工作内容、方式及低效环节，识别所有障碍点。

But now, though, the expectation that we automate more and more of this, you've gotta go back and do that sort of bottoms up, not the top down. You've gotta understand what everybody on your team is doing and how they're doing it and where those inefficiencies are, identifying those roadblocks and and all that.

正是。这已成为我处理财务乃至管理的自然方式。如果不理解基层现状（正如你所说），就是在把员工逼入绝境。他们不仅重复着垃圾进垃圾出的错误流程，还要在毫无支持的情况下承受为自身职责辩护的压力，最终因这种权力拉锯产生更糟的结果——而不是全员达成共识，理解自身工作如何影响下一环节，以及数据如何最终支撑决策。

Yep. And for me, that became just a natural way that I kind of approach finance and even management. If you're not understanding the the bottom up to your point, you're putting people in very impossible situations. And so now not only are they repeating those bad processes and it's garbage in garbage out, but now they feel all this tension and pressure to try to defend their role or defend their practice without having any support. And then now you're getting bad, you know, outputs because just of that tension and that power struggle rather than everyone being on the same page and understanding what's coming to them, but also how they impact the next person and then how that data all flows back up to making the decisions that we're all trying to understand.

是啊。你传递的接力棒根本没人愿意接，当你进入这个......

Yeah. And you're I mean, you're passing the baton that nobody wants when they get into and you're

我们以前常开玩笑说——绝无贬低销售的意思——这就像早期财务和销售的互动方式：销售填完订单表，跳过若干栏，把纸揉成一团扔过隔断墙，我们财务只能疑惑'桌上怎么多了个东西？'。所以无论是自动化还是业务增长，首要任务都是理顺这些基础环节。

We used to make this joke, and this is nothing against sales, but it's kind of like how finance and sales in the beginning of my career interacted. We we would make this joke that sales would just take an order form, they'd fill it out, they'd skip a bunch of spaces and then they'd crumple up the piece of paper and throw it over the cubicle wall. And we're just kinda like, did something land on our table? Right? And so you gotta fix all of that first, whether it's automation, but really even if you're just trying to grow, you gotta kinda button it up a little bit.

没错。考虑到你曾嵌入开票运营、HR和营收团队经历过高增长混乱期——关于流程优化，特别是在高速增长阶段，财务运营即将崩溃的早期预警信号有哪些？比如哪些迹象表明当前模式已达极限？

Yeah. And then with another part of your background, it's it's one thing if it's business as usual and everybody's kinda working at the same pace, but you've been embedded in billing ops, HR, and revenue teams all during that kind of that high growth chaos period too. So, I mean, thinking about processes and how you went through that, I mean, what are some maybe from both, but I'm thinking more in that that high growth era. What are some early signals that financial operations are really about to break? We've kinda hit our our max of what we can do right now.

是的。所以，我的意思是，这与第一条评论相辅相成——当房间里的人要么过于沉默，要么争论不休时。对吧？如果他们太安静，说明没人真正在使用这个模型。他们根本不在乎数据从何而来。

Yeah. So, I mean, it it kinda goes hand in hand with the first comment when everyone in the room either is too quiet or there's too much arguing. Right? If they're too quiet, then that means no one's really using this model. They don't really care where the numbers are coming from.

你没能让他们认同。他们就是不感兴趣。所以某个环节出了问题。但如果他们争吵太多，也意味着你的流程是反向构建的。数据流动不正确。

You haven't created buy in. They're just not into it. So something's broken somewhere. But if they're arguing too much, it also means that you your process was built backwards. Your data is not flowing correctly.

大家对数字应该是多少、如何得出这个数字、使用什么时间节点都没有共识。对吧？财务计划与分析部门说订阅用户数是X，而销售部门却在摇头——你们在说什么？那是上季度的数据了。

There's not alignment on what the number should be, how the number's getting there, what timing you're using. Right? You can have FP and A say your subscriber count is x and then sales is sitting there shaking their heads. What are you talking about? That was last quarter's number.

对吧？所以对我来说主要的先行指标就是：如果讨论不足或争吵过多，都意味着某个环节存在错位。

Right? So that's kind of the main leading indicator for me is if there's not enough talk and also if there's too much fighting. There's misalignment somewhere.

没错。这种错位可能存在于数据本身，可能在数据字典里，比如KPI的定义方式、如何确定真实数据源，也可能存在于流程中。通常这两者是相互关联的——糟糕的数据伴随着糟糕的流程。

Yeah. And that misalignment could be in the data itself. It could be in in the data dictionary, how the KPIs are defined, what identifying those sources of truth, or it could be in the processes. Or usually, the two go hand in hand and they're sort of linked together, bad data, bad processes.

正是。我把财务部门视为更像瞭望塔的角色。我们是运营者，不是记账员。对吧？

Exactly. And I look at finance as more of a, you know, like a watchtower. We're an operator. We're not record keeping. Right?

确实需要确认计算是否正确？历史数据是否准确？但真正关键的是要把这些数字转化为对业务的理解。如果这两者不能协同，就会出现错位，引发争吵。而这实际上会造成团队间的内耗，进而形成信息孤岛，筑起隔阂之墙。

There is an aspect of do we have the math right? Do we have the historicals right? But really you've gotta be able to translate those numbers into understanding the business and if those aren't working hand in hand, then you're gonna have misalignment. You're gonna have these arguments. And what that really creates is this internal turmoil against teams that then turn into silos, then put walls up.

这时你们不仅在对抗某个指标或增长目标，更是在互相争斗。在这种环境下没有人能取得进展。

And now you're not just fighting against a metric or an object a growth objective. Now you're fighting against each other, and no one's getting ahead in that environment.

是啊。在这种环境下，我以前总喜欢躲进我的模型里——尤其是在担任领导职务之前——觉得这太疯狂了，不如回到电子表格里预算模型的舒适区。回想刚进入财务领域时，这就是我的第一反应。因为我是从财务计划与分析这条线成长起来的，不是审计或注册会计师那条路。

Yeah. And then in those kind of environments is where I used to always like to just retreat into my models and just all the chaos has got know, before especially before being in a in a leadership role, it's like, well, this is insanity. Let me just go find the comfort of of my budget model in in spreadsheets. And when I think about first coming into finance, that was the first thing I thought of. Because I I came up through FP and A, not through, you know, audit and CPA and all that.

我热爱构建模型，喜欢整合历史数据与内部信息，运用最佳驱动因素，甚至引入外部变量，深入挖掘模型价值——当然在数据质量差时很难做到。我记得你写过一篇文章，关于你提交过最糟糕却最准确的预测，听起来很矛盾。能详细说说当时的情况吗？为什么在那个案例中准确性反而成了错误目标？

I loved building the models, and I loved, you know, bringing in all the historical and internal and, you know, having all the best drivers and then even pulling in external factors and really just digging into those models, which it's harder to do when you don't have great data. But I know you've written about I I love the piece you wrote about the worst forecast you ever delivered was also your most accurate, which sounds like how could that possibly be the case. So maybe walk us through that. What happened and and why was accuracy the wrong goal in that case?

是的。首先我认为，关键在于我深刻理解自己是从基层一步步成长起来的，更像是一个实际操作者——那些会使用模型、试图调控各种杠杆的人，而非像你那样拥有深厚财务规划与分析背景的建模专家。这就像同一枚硬币的两面。当我刚开始构建模型时，总担心公式用得不对。

Yeah. So I think first, just having a solid understanding that I have come up kind of through the ranks and through more of an operator who would be using that model, who's trying to manage those levers, right, rather than someone who just has extensive knowledge in building kind of like from your background through FP and A. Right? So it's kind of like the other side of the same coin. So when I started building models, there was always this intimidation that I wasn't getting the formula right.

我没有用最花哨的Excel格式或最炫酷的代码公式，总觉得自己落后于某些恐惧。但我能带来的是一种更具变革性的东西——那就是实操者的视角。所以当我说最精确的预测反而失败时，是因为虽然数学计算正确、格式精美、配色规范、仪表盘完善，但模型既没有讲述业务故事，也没有标记先导指标。没人能对明年数据或可调控的杠杆发表意见，自然没人认同这个模型——那些假设根本不符合团队实际运作方式。

I wasn't using the flashiest Excel formatting or the flashiest code or formulas, and I felt behind some of my fears, but what I was able to bring to the table was something that was more transformative and it's that operator side. So when I say that my most accurate forecast was also the one that failed, it was because while the math was right, the formatting was beautiful, it had all of the color codes that you expect, It had the nice dashboard, the nice roll up. There wasn't anything that really told the story or, like, flagged the leading indicators. No one really had a say in our next year numbers or what levers they could drive and have impact in and so no one bought into the model. And the assumptions didn't reflect how the team actually operated.

我当时建模的所有杠杆业务部门根本不信服，因为我没和部门主管或团队进行压力测试。所以即便数学精确，这个教训让我在转型实操者的头几年开始思考：他们需要什么？他们看到了什么？脱节点在哪里？

So I was modeling all of these levers that the business just couldn't believe in and I hadn't pressure tested it with the department heads or with the teams. And so it's really even though the math was accurate, it was that exercise that kind of started to lean more into my first couple of years working as an operators. What do they need? What are they seeing? Where's the disconnect?

我的错误在哪？驱动正确计算的假设错在哪？只有当他们在模型里看到自己的影子，感受到掌控权并真正抓住它时，你得到的才不是个仅数学正确的模型，而是真正可用的模型。

How am I wrong? How are the assumptions wrong that's driving the correct math? And then once they can see themselves in it and can see their ownership and take hold of that ownership, then now you have a model that works rather than just a model that has correct math.

确实。我知道你合作过私募支持的公司，私募团队是我共事过最优秀的财务分析师，但他们也有这个通病——把地图当成实际地形。我也常犯这错误：过度沉迷模型却忘了业务实质。这曾让我很困扰，有次担任CFO时，同一投资集团总派我去接手那些持有期过长的私募项目——虽非彻底重组，但四五年都没达成预期增长或EBITDA目标，我得去收拾残局。

Yeah. And I know you've worked with private equity backed companies and, you know, private equity groups have been some of the best financial analysts I've ever worked with, but they have that problem that I think I default to this too where you can confuse the map for the terrain, and you can get so lost in the model and focus so much on the model that you forget that operational side of it as well and and sort of the reality. And that was always really tough for me because I had a a role when as a CFO where it was the same investor group would put me into companies that maybe they weren't full turnarounds, but they were long in the tooth for private equity investments. They were four or five years in and and nothing you know, not getting the growth they were supposed to, not getting the EBITDA numbers they were supposed to hit. So they'd bring me in to try to fix that.

那时压力极大，私募方不断要求建模展示改进方案，在小公司里这几乎占据全部时间，以至于你容易忽略执行端的人。最后很可能做出他们想看的模型，想着'具体落实以后再说'——这绝对会酿成大祸。

And it was very hard at that point, you have so much pressure from private equity to model and show the improvements you're gonna make that it takes so much of your time because these were these were smaller companies that I was with where you you can forget the people on the other side, and it's very easy to build that model that is what they wanna see and then think, oh, we'll just figure out how to make this work later. And that's that's a recipe for disaster.

绝对是灾难配方。而且是对留守者的灾难——也许对交易完就套现走人的CFO不算什么，但总监、经理和团队主管们只会觉得：'这目标怎么可能达成？'

It it is a recipe for disaster. And I tell you, it's a recipe for disaster for the people who are left behind. Right? Maybe it's not disastrous for the CFO who's taking a net exit as soon as this deal is finished, but then for everyone like your director and your managers and your team leads, we're all left with, how are we gonna hit this? This is impossible.

我们被束缚在根本无法支撑的计划里。如果当初征求过意见，我们本可以更有创意地提出'有条件同意'而非直接否决。但现实是，我们总默认'收入增长20%+运营费用仅增5-10%'就是神奇数字，这太脱离实际了。

And we're beholden to a plan that we really can't support and had we been asked, we probably could have been a little bit more creative on not a no, but a yes if. Right? And we don't do enough yes if. We just kind of assume that, you know, a 20% growth on revenue and a only a five to 10% growth on operating expenses is the magic number, and that's just not that's not reality.

这引出你写的另一个观点。想到我们投入年度预算和运营计划的时间精力就疯狂——当流程正确时，需要反复协调各部门：销售定目标、市场算预算...

Yeah. And that goes into something else you've written about. And I'm it's crazy to me because I think about how much time and effort goes into the annual budget, the annual operating plan, and going back and forth. And when you do when you do it right and you get everybody's all the department heads, you get their input, and everybody you know, sales has their target. Marketing has figured out their budget.

整合所有环节后，我们说：'这就是行动纲领，预算基于这些经济预期。'虽然你试图考虑所有影响因素，但...

You're rolling it all together, and everything is sort of tied together. And and we say, okay. This is what we're gonna do. This is what we're basing the budget on, and this is what we think the economy is gonna do. You can try to think of everything in the world that could impact your budget.

你终于敲定了这个计划，结果新冠疫情爆发了，或者全球金融危机来了，又或者你误判了市场走向和经济趋势。

You finally get this plan finalized, and then COVID happens or the or the global financial crisis or just you read the tea leaves wrong with where the market where the economy is going.

或者你失去了最大的客户，或者CEO突然不想招人，结果到了第四季度，他又想把原计划里的人都招进来。这就是时机问题。

Or you lose your biggest customer or the CEO doesn't wanna hire and then all of a sudden, you know, it's q four and he wants to hire everyone that was originally in the plan. It's just timing.

是啊。所以你说得对——我同意那个迈克·泰森的名言：'每个人在挨拳头之前都有个完美计划'。但你有力论证了大多数年度运营计划到第二季度就名存实亡，特别是在今年这种要围绕关税或全球变数做计划的情况下，我完全赞同。

Yeah. So you made and and I agree. It's it's that Mike Tyson quote where, you know, everybody has a plan till they get punched in the mouth. But you make the strong case that most annual operating plans are DOA by q two. And I agree with that, especially with this year trying to make a plan around tariffs or, you know, what whatever the global changes that could happen.

但在这种环境下，即便我们认为一切都会保持不变、市场不会波动，既然知道这种情况，财务计划与分析团队应该做些什么来保持相关性和敏捷性？而不是像现在这样，才能制定出可执行一年的有效方案？

But in an environment like that or even if we think all things are gonna remain equal and we're you know, and it's not volatile, knowing that that's the case, what should FP and A teams be doing instead of the what we're doing now to kind of stay relevant and agile and have something that works that they can manage to for the next year?

我认为有几个关键点。从我的视角看——我的实战经验让我形成了不同观点——我是个深入前线的人。

I think a few things kind of flow into this. Right? And from my vantage point, I just I have a different perspective and my experience has given me that perspective. I'm in the trenches kind of person. Right?

我理解自下而上规划的必要性，也明白收入目标和EBITDA目标存在的意义。真正的关键在于搭建两者之间的桥梁。我在财务建模时更倾向于充当这个桥梁，而不是完全自下而上或自上而下。你必须找到平衡点。所以我总说年度计划已死——在快速成长的企业里，往往公司还没批准计划，它就已经不适用了。

So I understand the need for bottoms up, but I also understand why the revenue targets are there or why the EBITDA targets are there. It's really you need to be able to bridge the two. And I tend to approach finance in-depth P and A and my modeling more from being that bridge rather than a 100% bottoms up or a 100% top down. You've got to find where's that convergence. And so when I write online that the annual plan is dead, I've been part of fast growing organizations where the annual plan doesn't even make sense before we've gotten corporate to sign off on it.

但我们还是得提交，所有人的绩效奖金却与之脱钩。我们心知肚明会严重偏离目标。这不是反对年度计划本身——我们需要基准线，需要框架结构。

But we've already submitted it and everyone's objective and bonus is not tied to that. And we already know we're gonna miss it and probably significantly. And so it's not so much anti annual plan. I know we need a baseline. We need that structure.

我们需要满足合规要求。但不能固步自封，如果二月份假设就失效了，我们必须保持灵活调整的能力。SaaS公司和高增长企业早就教会我：必须持续重新预测。令我震惊的是，居然不是所有企业都采用滚动预测，不是所有模型都能根据'好/更好/最好'的假设切换不同场景。

We need that compliance spot box checked. But we can't freeze ourselves in time and when we build on assumptions that stop being true by February, we're not remaining flexible enough to move and adjust and pivot with the business. SaaS companies and high growth companies taught me that early on. We always reforecast it. It's crazy to me that that not everyone has a rolling forecast and not everyone builds their model to be able to shift or have different scenarios based on good, better, best assumptions.

这种机制本应容易实现，非SaaS或非高增长企业也完全可以采用更多滚动预测。这样团队就不会被过时的数字束缚。传统财务因此沦为没人想搭理的监督者，模型变成每月折磨人的电子表格——大家开会前恨不得撞墙。这根本不是计划，而是强迫所有人假装半年前的决定在宏观微观剧变中仍然合理。

That seems like something that's so easy to incorporate and companies that aren't just SaaS based or aren't just high growth could do a little bit more of the rolling forecast. And then suddenly what you see is that teams aren't held to numbers that no longer reflect their actual constraints. So finance in the old scenario becomes the enforcer that no one wants to talk to, nobody believes in, and your model is just kind of a spreadsheet guilt trip practice every month. People like bang their heads on their desk before they walk into the meeting and and that's not that's not planning at that point. That's that's kind of making everyone pretend that what you guys decided on six months ago still makes sense and everything on a macro and micro level, it's it's just changing too quickly.

所以必须推进滚动预测，构建具有内置灵活性的模型基础架构，并绑定运营实际。千万别强行套用自上而下的数字——那才是真正的死胡同。

So you've really gotta be able to roll your forecast forward, build models that have like that flexibility built into well, just the nuts and bolts of it. Right? And then tied to operational reality. Don't force a top down number. That's where you really get stuck.

是的。这取决于企业所在的位置、规模、发展阶段，以及是上市公司还是私营企业。我记得有好几种情况，私营企业严重依赖银行融资，附带严格的条款。所以我们会根据预期制定年度计划，但提交给银行的却是另一套——我们会调整出一个‘留有余地’的预算，标明这是达成条款的最低要求。上市公司做预算时同样如此，你不能让数字落空，所以也会有保守预估的倾向。

Yeah. And it's depending on where the business is, size, growth stage, whether they're public or private, I can remember in in several situations where private company heavily leveraged bank financing with serious covenants. So we would go through and we would make our annual plan based on what we thought it was gonna be, but we that's not what we would submit to the bank. We would then turn it around and make another budget for the bank that was sandbagging and was this is the minimum we need to hit our covenants, and we would turn that over. But then similarly on public company, if you're making a budget, you can't miss your numbers, so you're gonna have a tendency to sandbag then.

但问题来了：当存在两套预算版本时，你该如何制定员工目标和奖金标准？或者如果你处于创业阶段，缺乏数据支撑，一切都在等待转折点，这种情况下规划变得极其困难——融资阶段不同，预测一年已属不易，更遑论三五年后的规划路径。你甚至无法确定资金和招聘规模。制定这种计划非常棘手，通常只能从商业战略和目标倒推，或者依赖历史数据。

But then, you know, what what are you gonna base everybody's objectives and and bonuses on out of that when you have two versions of the budget? Or if you're in a a startup phase in a business and you don't have data and everything is you're just waiting for that inflection point, it gets really tricky to think, you know, depending on where you are in in financing, projecting one year is hard enough, let alone three or five years out what you're gonna do, and then your plan for how you're gonna get there. And then you don't know what your funding's gonna be and what your hiring's gonna be. It's very tricky trying to come up with this plan. I mean, you you start with the business strategy and the business goals and you back into that, or you take historical data.

这类计划很容易偏离现实基准，全看制定预算的初衷是什么。

It's just it can easily get swayed away from what any kind of reality is based on what the purpose of that plan and budget are.

没错。这正是我质疑高层管理的地方——CFO、董事会、投资人。我们需要坦诚对话：现实情况究竟如何？我们能做什么？

Right. But then that's where I challenge upper management, you know, CFO, board, investors. To be honest, right, let's let's have some real candor in our discussions. What is reality? What can we do?

我并非主张通过保守预估来制造超额完成的假象。但如果高层强行要求40%增长，而现有销售渠道根本无力支撑，再怎么祈祷也无济于事。你必须对自身、产品、流程、团队有足够信心，真正理解业务运行规律，才能向上传递可信的、基于现实的增长目标。

And I'm not saying that we need to sandbag just so that we can over perform at the end of the day. But if it's coming from the top down that we need to grow by 40% and your current sales pipeline doesn't support that, there is no amount of praying and worshiping idols that will get you there. Right? So you have to be confident enough in yourself, confident enough in your product, your process, your business, the team that you say you trust to be able to understand how your business is breathing and how it can perform and then communicate that confidently up and land on goals that are based. Right?

基于现实且具备支撑基础的目标。

Based on reality and able to be supported.

你刚才提到杠杆思维。在你看来，制定预算时是否真会聚焦于‘要实现30-40%销售增长，就需要分解到各市场、渠道、销售人员数量等具体指标’？

You mentioned levers earlier. So to your mind, when you're budgeting, do you really is that your primary focus of, okay, we're gonna increase sales by 30 or 40%? Well, let's look at this is, you know, whatever the metric is. We're doing this by market, this by channel, this by a number of salespeople we have. So let's build that in.

要实现30%增长，就必须招聘特定规模的销售团队——别忘了他们还需要90天适应期。

If you wanna grow by 30%, we need to drive by hiring this many sales headcount. By the way, they have a ninety day ramp up or whatever it is.

正是。或许我在SaaS领域从事财务规划的经历有些优势——这个行业天生就注重颗粒度。要实现X收入增长，意味着需要Y规模管线，我们会一直拆解到在线营销转化率，再反推需要多少开拓型销售、多少成交型销售。

Exactly. And, you know, it's it's maybe a little bit of an unfair advantage because I've always lived in a SaaS world, you know, while I was growing up in FP and A. And it just naturally naturally, it's that's how SaaS tends to build It's it's very granular down to the lever and exactly what you just said. If we need to grow revenue by x, that means the pipeline needs to be y and we're gonna go all the way down to how our marketing is converting online and then roll it up from there. How many hunters, how many closers, all of that.

确实。能获得这种颗粒度数据的行业很幸运，毕竟很多传统企业无法追踪网站点击率，也没有HubSpot这类工具来监控营销线索和交易进度，难以进行类似深度分析。

Yeah. And it is great to be in a sector that you can get that level of granularity because there's so many businesses out there too where you don't you don't have the click throughs on the website and deals that you can track in HubSpot or, you know, whatever based on, you know, marketing leads or or whatever. So it it can be harder to in other sectors to to drill down like that too.

是的。而且，你知道，我在网上对我的某些评论收到了很多反对意见，实际上我非常重视这些反馈。明白吗？因为我认为我的网络存在或我所写的内容不仅让我保持与时俱进，挑战我自己的思维，而且当有人质疑我时，这帮助我从不同角度看问题。所以我知道并非每家公司或行业都有能力像我描述的那样深入分析。

Yes. And, you know, I've got a lot of pushback online about some of my comments and actually I I highly value them. Right? Because I consider my online presence or what I'm writing and not only keeps me relevant and challenges my own thoughts, but when when I have people who challenge me, it helps me see things from different perspectives. So I know that not every company or industry has the ability to drill down the ways that I'm describing.

但与其简单地说我们做不到，我会反过来挑战公司说，好吧。那我们怎样才能做到？比如，什么更重要？是拥有一个精确的数学模型，还是拥有一个我们可以用来操作的模型？而且，哦，这也是我们董事会使用的。我们不会为这个人准备一个版本，为那个人准备另一个版本。

But rather than just saying we can't do that, I then challenge companies to say, okay. Well, how can we? Like, what is more important? Be having an accurate math model or having a model that we can use to operate with And, oh, it's what we use for the board too. We're not carrying one version for this guy and one version for this guy.

我们实际上是在推动现实。

We're we're really driving reality.

你提到这个时很有趣。我立刻回想起一家公司，那里有一个很长的销售周期，B2B业务，非常个人化的销售周期，你会把某人招进来，他们会待很长时间，但进展非常缓慢。这家公司的销售主管不让他的团队使用CRM系统。所以我们得到的，你知道，我现在在做引号手势，‘管道报告’。但如果我看不到那个管道，你在说什么呢？

It's funny when you mentioned that. I immediately had this flashback to a company where it was a long sales cycle, b to b business, very personal sales cycle, and you'd get somebody in, and they would be there for a long time, but it took forever. And the head of sales at this company would not make his team use the CRM. So we would get you know, I'm doing air quotes now, pipeline reports. But if if I can't go see that pipeline, what are you talking about?

你知道，我不知道交易在哪里。我不知道百分比，或者我无法基于任何东西。当你没有从跟踪一切的系统中获得统计数据，而是依赖人时，这是一个真正的挑战。你必须让这种认同感超越财务团队。它必须是自上而下的。

You know, I don't know where the deals are. I don't know what percentage or I can't base it on anything. And that is a a real challenge when you don't have the stats that you can get from systems where you're tracking everything and you're relying on people. You've gotta have that buy in beyond just the finance team. It's gotta be top down.

我们有这些系统。我们要使用它们，因为我们需要那些数据。

We have these systems. We're gonna use them because we gotta have that data.

是的。而且更深层次的是，你必须理解团队和个人，他们的奖励系统是什么样的。他们是回避型的还是像追逐金胡萝卜型的？因为这让你知道这不是操纵，而是我们如何能达成一致。明白吗？

Yes. And deeper than that too, you have to understand within teens and individuals what is their reward system look like. Are they avoiding or are they like the golden carrot? Because then that lets you know it's not a manipulation, but it's a how can we create alignment. Right?

所以如果你有一个像追逐金胡萝卜型的顶级销售，那么你能给他们什么让他们投入或承担你的目标？你给他们什么？例如，在一家公司，我们试图改变整个市场进入策略，从单一的固定价格，销售每次遇到低价竞争者时都会大幅降价，我们想要一个‘好、更好、最好’的定价平台，但销售团队就是不买账。明白吗？

So if you have someone that is really just like a golden carrot type of producer, then what can you give them to have them lean in or or carry your objective? What do you give them? For instance, in one company, we were trying to change our entire go to market strategy with instead of like one flat rate that sales went and heavily reduced every single time they got up against an ankle biter. We wanted a good, better, best pricing platform and sales did just, they just did not buy into this. Right?

对他们来说，这太麻烦了。他们必须更多地倾向于基于解决方案的模型。明白吗？他们就是不想那样销售。所以我做的是，我把顶级销售拉到一边，不是销售总监，而是销售业绩最好的人，我给她看了一下她现在的佣金。

They it was too much work. They had to do more of like a lean into a solutions based model. Right? And they just did not want to sell that way. And so what I did is I pulled aside the top performer, not the sales director but the top sales performer and I kind of gave her a view of here's your commission right now.

你一直在获得线索，你比公司里其他任何人都更擅长成交，这是你现在的佣金。对你来说可能足够了。但如果你按照‘好、更好、最好’的定价模型来划分你已经卖出的客户，这是你的佣金，大概是三倍的佣金。明白吗？就在那一刻，她突然想成为财务的传道者了。明白吗？

You land leads all the time, you close them better than anyone else in the company and here's your commission. That's probably enough for you But here would be your commission based on the customers that you've already sold to if we split them on the good, better, best pricing model and it was like three x commission. Right? And that right there was the single most, it was like she was she was now wanted to be an apostle of finance. Right?

她当时就说，伙计们，看看这个。我们需要遵循这个新策略。有时候只需要这样一句话就够了，对吧？你不能只是告诉人们你想让他们做什么。

She was just like, guys, look at this. We need to follow this new strategy. And sometimes that's all it takes. Right? You can't just communicate what you want people to do.

你必须用他们能理解的语言说明这对他们有什么好处——因为当他们为自己表现得更好时，也就为公司表现得更好。

You have to communicate in their language why it's good for them because when they perform better for themselves, they perform better for the company.

没错。我很喜欢你这么说，因为这让我想起——节目老听众都知道——我之前在节目里讲过这个故事，它完美印证了你刚才的观点。我首次担任CFO是在一家外饰快洗车公司，私募基金背景，发展迅猛，我们必须达成极其严格的指标。为了激励员工——包括各分店经理、区域经理等——我们制定了与营收和EBITDA目标挂钩的利润分享计划。

Yeah. I love that you said that because it reminds me, and regular listeners to the show will know, I've I've used this story before on here, but it just it really drives home that same point you just made. My first CFO role was a car wash company, an exterior express car wash company. And we were private equity backed, and we were growing quickly, and we had very, very strict targets that we had to hit. And one of the ways that we wanted to motivate our employees, the the managers of each of the units and the regional managers and all that as well, we had a profit sharing plan that was based on revenue and EBITDA targets.

洗车经理们都是蓝领出身，精通机械、管道和电路，但大多没上过会计课程。刚开始实行基于EBITDA的利润分享时，他们根本不懂这个术语。但我每月都会去分店，带着他们逐条分析损益表。当他们看到达成甚至超额完成EBITDA目标对收入的实际影响后——三四次辅导下来，你简直以为我是在和高盛分析师对话。这再次证明我们财务规划分析人员不能只待在财务的象牙塔里。

And car wash managers are blue collar. They're excellent at mechanical, plumbing, and electrical, but they've most of them have never taken an accounting course or anything. But when we started with the the profit sharing that was based on EBITDA that they didn't know what that meant, but we would I would go to the units, and I would go through their unit p and l with them every month. And because they saw the impact to their bottom line, if they were able to hit their and and exceed their EBITDA targets, you would think I was talking to a Goldman Sachs analyst after after the third or fourth visit that they saw the results from it. So and that that just is another reminder that we in FP and A, we can't just stay in that ivory tower of finance.

我们必须走出去沟通，与其他业务部门建立伙伴关系，真正改善他们的工作体验。

We've gotta get out there and talk. We've gotta partner with the other business units and and be a a partner to them and make their lives better.

对。虽然并非每个FP&A岗位都有时间或权限这么做，但组织里必须有人——无论是总监还是CFO——不能只与高管层或部门负责人交流。至少在建模前后都要与团队主管沟通。这是我始终坚持的'团队优先、自下而上'的工作方式。

Yeah. Yep. And, you know, not every role within FP and A has the time for that or even the, you know, green light to do that, but someone within the FP and A organization be it the director or the CFO, someone needs to be talking to more than just the c suite and even more than just the department heads. You need to at least talk to team leads before you start building your model and then even after. I just don't know any other way because this has always worked so well for me to be team forward and work from a bottoms up kind of solution.

是的。财务人员总想成为成本会计、收入确认等领域的专家，但如今我们更需要拓宽业务知识面。不能再说'我只是个记账的，不管卖什么产品'这种话了。

Yeah. And in finance, we wanna be a mile deep and understand everything about everything from cost accounting to revenue recognition and everything that we need to know and to be domain experts. But more and more seemingly every day, we need to have a breadth of knowledge too about the business. We can't just say, I'm a bean counter. It doesn't matter what widgets we're selling.

通过与各部门沟通理解业务，无论是预算编制还是月度波动分析都会更高效。你曾写过'多数差异分析都是变相的法务会计'，我深以为然——如果不深挖数据本质，就只是在报数而非创造价值。只有像法务会计那样追根溯源，发现费用动因与损益表其他项目的关联，才算真正发挥作用。

And having being able to get out and talk to those other groups understand them makes when we do our job, whether it's budgeting or even doing our our flux analysis every month. And I I love one of the things you've written about is that most variance analysis is forensic accounting in disguise. And I I love that because if you're not digging in in that kind of level to understand it, you're just reporting numbers. You're not adding value to them. So if you do that level of forensic accounting and you really understand what's driving them and you find correlations or whatever it is, what's driving this expense, and how does it impact the rest of the p and l or or whatever the other financial statements?

这个法务会计的比喻太精妙了。能否详细说说团队在做差异分析时，应该重点关注哪些方面而非事后计分？

But I love that comparison to forensic accounting. And I'm wondering if you could expand on that a little bit and maybe highlight what teams should focus on instead of that just retroactive score keeping when you're doing your variance analysis?

当然。FP&A职能固然需要数学技能，但我几乎每个回答都在强调：必须理解业务流程和人员。具体到差异分析——我并非反对差异分析本身...

Yeah. FP and A as a function, of course, you've got to have those math skills there. But I've I've kind of reiterated through almost every single answer to this is that you have to understand the process people in the business. And so when I look at specifically the question of variance analysis, I'm not anti variance analysis. Right?

这确实有用。这正是我们的目标所在，也是我们追踪进展的方式。但当你开始理解业务后，就能提出这样的问题：问题是否出在上游环节？我们能否在它影响损益表或审计前实时发现？

It's it's useful. This is this was the goal. This is how we track to that. But when you can start to understand the business and then ask the question, like, was this broken upstream? Could we have caught this real time before it showed up on the p and l or an audit?

要开始深挖先行指标。如果你每周追踪销售渠道或转化率，发现转化指标下滑——这会在平均销售周期的时间范围内反映在损益表上。比如平均销售周期是三个月或一年，转化率开始下降时，这就是损益和收入即将出问题的先行信号？所以我通常会建立展示这些关键...应该说这些精细调控点的仪表盘。

Start to try to dig into leading indicators. If you're tracking your pipeline or your conversion throughout the week and you notice that your conversion metrics drop, well, that's gonna show up on a p and l within the timeline of your average sales cycle. Right? So if your average sales cycle is three months or a year and your conversion starts to drop, that's the leading indicator that downstream your your p and l and your revenue is gonna have a problem? So I typically tend to build dashboards that show those main I should say those detailed levers.

对吧？是那些真正会产生影响的指标，而非人人都在看的高层KPI。我们要更深入些，把那些先行指标也纳入监控。

Right? The ones that are really going to cause an impact, not just the high level KPIs that everyone runs, but we go a little more granular and and try to get those leading indicators in there.

没错。因为这样才能找到真正关键的调控点——财务规划与分析的核心职责就是不断追问'为什么'，直指问题根源。找到根源后，你就不再是治标，而是在创造实质影响。

Yeah. Because that's where you're gonna find those levers that that's really our our job in in FP and A is to keep asking why and get down to that root cause, and you identify the root cause, then you're not treating symptoms. You're treating you're actually making an impact.

对。但我想强调的是：作为FP&A分析师或职能部门，我们必须这样做，因为如果只关注计算层面，迟早AI会取代这部分工作。就像我们从纸笔计算到计算器，再到Excel，最终AI将接管大量运算。

Right. And here's here's the thing that I challenge with that and the reason why as FP and A analyst or organization function, we we need to do that is because at some point, if all you're worried about is the math, AI is gonna do that for you. Right? Like we used to do it on paper and then we did it on a calculator and then Excel. Well, eventually, AI is gonna do a lot of that math.

所以如果你的唯一价值是输入正确公式，就该思考五年后自己的定位。真正的价值在于成为懂业务的合作伙伴，是连接数字与业务的桥梁，而不仅是数字本身。

So if if your only value add is that you get the right formula in there, then you need to think about how are you positioning yourself within your role five years from now. And it's really gonna be that value add. Right? That partner that understands the business and is the bridge to the number, not just the number.

正是这样我们才能摆脱'成本中心'的标签。我们是在为业务创造真实价值——像法医侦探般破解难题，寻找提升利润的方法。

Yeah. And that's where we shed the moniker of of cost center. You know? This is are adding real value to the business. We're being that forensic investigator that is solving the case and figuring out how to add more money to the bottom line.

坦白说这样更有意思。我不想每月扮演恶人给大家发'体检报告'——有几次我差点因此离职。后来我深入思考：作为运营者我需要什么，就该提供什么。

And quite frankly, it's more exciting. I'm sorry but I don't wanna just feel like the bad cop every month and and give everyone like their test results. That, I mean, I almost quit several roles because it felt that way. And so that's that's really where I dug in and say, okay. Well, as an operator, I needed this, so let me provide that.

这样我们才能共同构建可信、可追踪、可讨论的体系，而不是陷入无谓争论。

Right? And maybe together, we are now building something that we believe in and can follow and can understand and have discussions about rather than arguments.

完全同意。今天的财务规划与分析由DataRails为您呈现——全球首屈一指的FP&A解决方案。DataRails是专为Excel用户打造的人工智能财务规划分析平台。

Yeah. Absolutely. FP and A today is brought to you by DataRails, the world's number one FP and A solution. DataRails is the artificial intelligence powered financial planning and analysis platform built for Excel users. Users.

没错。你可以继续使用Excel。但不必再为每个预算、月末结算或预测而焦头烂额，你将享受到数据整合、高级可视化、报表和AI功能的天堂，更有颠覆性的洞察力为你即时提供答案，几秒钟内就能生成你的业务故事。了解为何超过一千家财务团队使用DataRails来揭示他们公司的真实故事。不要取代Excel，而是拥抱Excel。

That's right. You can stay in Excel. But instead of facing hell for every budget, month end close, or forecast, you can enjoy a paradise of data consolidation, advanced visualization, reporting, and AI capabilities, plus game changing insights giving you instant answers and your story created in seconds. Find out why more than a thousand finance teams use data rails to uncover their company's real story. Don't replace Excel, embrace Excel.

更多信息请访问datarails.com。我之前提到过，当情况变得艰难时，人们很容易退回模型思维。我认为无论AI和其他工具如何发展，我们所有人——也许下一代人会改变这种状况——Excel始终是我们的舒适区。

Learn more at datarails.com. I mentioned earlier that when things get tough, it's easy to retreat into a model. And I think all of us, it doesn't matter what AI and what tools are out there. I I think our happy place, our comfort zone, and maybe this will change with the next generation. I don't know.

但Excel有其局限性。我们DataRails和FDNA团队至今仍热爱Excel，但有些系统和工具能更快完成我们在Excel中的工作，而且不会出现公式崩溃等问题。我知道你曾用Excel做过1亿美元的预测，并记录了首先出现的问题。我很想听听这个故事。

But Excel is just the place. And we love Excel here at at DataRails and FDNA today as as well. But it there are limits to what it can do, and there are systems and tools out there that can do what we did in Excel much faster, and we're we we don't have the problems with breaking formulas and all that. But I I know you ran a $100,000,000 forecast in Excel and wrote about what broke first. I'd love to hear that story.

那么你是否确定了那个临界点——在那种情况下Excel的最大使用速度和最大承载极限？

And then did you identify kind of where that tipping point is of the sort of do not the max speed, max use of Excel in that case?

是的。其实关键不在于企业规模。我见过Excel在700万、2000万甚至1亿美元时崩溃。问题在于我们超出角色或工作本身的便利性需求时——这种情况在中小企业比拥有更大团队的大型机构更常见。

Yeah. I mean, it's not so much about the the size of the business. Right? In in a situation like that, I've seen Excel break at 7,000,000, at 20,000,000, at a 100,000,000. It's it's when we start to out of just ease for the role or for the job, and I think this happens more in SMB than in a larger organization that has the larger team.

但我们起初只是简单地将所有输入输出数据塞进一个Excel表格来保护它们。虽然Excel功能强大，能处理大量数据，但当我们试图在其中进行数据清洗、整理和格式化，以获取所需的输出或计算结果时，它很容易崩溃。对吧？当我们担心版本控制时，两个人同时打开Excel并更新，我们根本不知道哪个才是最终的最终版本。

But we start to protect all of our inputs and outputs by kind of just throwing it into one Excel sheet. And while Excel is massive, it can handle a lot of data. When we try to also throw in where we're cleaning our data, where we're organizing our data, where we're formatting it so that we can get the outputs or the calculations that we desire from that, it can break really easily. Right? When we're worrying about version controls, two people opening up in Excel and both updating it and we don't know which is the final final final version.

所以我们不断调整假设，然后要在一行数据里追踪并调和三种不同假设造成的混乱。对吧？这正是Excel开始崩溃的地方——当链接过多时，你会失去版本控制，且整个表格里埋藏了太多逻辑。在我看来，模型应该像承包商盖房子那样构建。

So we're tweaking assumptions and then we're chasing down and reconciling the chaos between three different assumptions on one line now. Right? And so that's really where Excel starts to break. When you have too many links, you lose your version control and there's just too much buried logic throughout. And model is really, in my opinion, needs to be built kind of how a contractor would build a house.

你必须铺设清晰的水管和电路系统，这很合理对吧？如果另一个水管工或电工接手，你最不想听到的就是‘天啊他们为什么这样布线’。层次分明、可中途调整、易于追踪，所有复杂的数据清洗和格式化都应该在Excel之外完成。

You have to lay down clear plumbing and electrical. That makes sense. Right? If another plumber comes in or another electrician comes in, the last thing that you wanna hear is, oh my god, why did they structure it this way? Cleanly layered, adjustable mid conversation, easy to follow, and all of your complex data cleans and data formatting need to happen outside of Excel.

Excel本质上不能承担整个财务规划与分析职能，它真的只适合作为输出工具。

Excel can't essentially be the entire FP and A function. It's it's really just that output.

是的。你说过——我觉得说得很对——问题不在Excel，而在于脆弱性。这让我想起纳西姆·塔勒布提出的‘反脆弱’。不确定你是否指这个，但什么才是非脆弱模型呢？

Yeah. And you said I I thought well said that Excel isn't the problem. Fragility is. It really made me think of what Nassim Taleb, the antifragile. I don't know if that was a reference to that, but what is a non fragile model?

如果你正在构建，你知道，没关系，我们会在Excel中处理这部分业务，你是如何连接并打下基础，以确保模型不会脆弱？

If you're building, you know, it's okay, we're gonna do whatever this part of the business in Excel, how are you wiring it and and laying that foundation so that you have a non fragile model?

所以我采用模块化构建。由于我注重团队协作，有时这些模型可能会有很多工作表标签。我不会让它超过50个标签，但模块化意味着你可以拆分部分内容，让其他人处理，仍能将其整合回模型中。对吧？而且它能正常运行。

So I build very modular. And because I am team forward, sometimes those models can there can be a lot of tabs. I will not let it go up to 50 tabs, but modular does mean that you can break off pieces of it, have someone else work on it, and you can still you you can still plug it into the model. Right? And it work.

但对我来说真正的压力测试是把它交给最终用户或新分析师，让他们操作一番而不会出问题。那样你就创建了一个可行的模型。对吧？如果交给别人时标签不清晰，有外部链接指向无人知晓是否需要更新的工作簿，他们根本不理解假设如何在模型中流动以及在哪里修改这些假设，那你其实只是制造了一团乱麻。对吧？

But really the the kind of stress test for me is handing it either to the end user or to a new analyst and let them play around with it and nothing breaks. Then you've created a model that works. Right? If you hand it to someone and it's not clearly labeled, there's outside links that are to workbooks that no one knows if you should update them or not, they really don't understand how the assumptions are flowing through the model and where to go to change those assumptions, then you you've really just created a mess. Right?

我们常听到这种说法：如果莎拉明天被公交车撞了，公司里有人能使用这个模型吗？如果答案是否定的，那我的工作就没做好。

And we we always hear that term, if Sarah got hit by a bus tomorrow, could could someone here use the model? And if the answer to that is no, then I've not done my job.

对，对。我也经常用这个说法。当我要求所有员工为他们所做的工作创建标准操作程序（SOP）时，也会基于此——回到你最初关于流程的陈述。因为有时从员工角度梳理SOP，再从领导视角审视，你会意识到：'我完全不知道完成这个任务需要跨越这么多障碍'，这又回归到流程问题，进而关联到数据——我们正在构建一个叙事链呢，莎拉。

Yeah. Yeah. I use that all the time too. And that's what I always also would base when I asked all my employees to create a an SOP for what they the work they did going back to your initial process statement. Because sometimes just mapping out the SOP from the employee's perspective and then looking at it from that leadership perspective, you can recognize if you realize, I had no idea all the hoops you have to jump through to perform this task, it gets back to that process, which gets back to the data, which we're we're building a narrative here, Sarah.

我觉得我们做得不错。

I think we're doing a good job.

嗯，不仅如此，你看，你处于高层。对吧？作为C级高管，你与实际业务运作已经相当脱节。不是说你不了解产品或员工，但你并不真正清楚他们端到端的运作方式。

Well, you know, it's not only that too, but, like, you're at the top. Right? And you're so far like, you're c suite. You're so far removed by how the business actually functions. Not that you don't understand your product or your people, but you don't really know how they're functioning end to end.

如果你对此太过疏离，就根本不会意识到：也许我们不需要新增整个销售团队，真正需要的是引入一两个销售运营人员。对吧？让他们在订单发送到履约前进行审核，这样无需再雇五个人或十个人来达成营收目标，实际上只需雇佣两人。这种改变能切实减轻相关人员的负担，他们因更快乐、更健康而在组织中表现更佳。

And if and if you're so far removed from that, you're really not gonna understand that, hey, maybe we don't need to add a whole new sales team. Maybe we just really need to bring in one to two people to do sales ops. Right? So they're checking the order forms before sending it to fulfillment, and instead of hiring five other people to hit that revenue number or 10 other people, you're really only hiring two. Like, then the conversation becomes real for people who needed that burden lifted off of them, and so they're performing better because they're happier and healthier in your organization.

但若不理解我们讨论的这些交接环节，你就看不到这些节省。对吧？所以这不仅关乎我个人，更关乎员工——但对企业的实际产出是：当你直面真正问题而非贴膏药式地凑数字时，能省下大笔资金。

But you've now created savings that you wouldn't have seen if you didn't understand those handoffs that we're talking about. Right? So it's not just for me, it is about the people, but the output for the business is you save a whole lot of money when you look at the real problem rather than trying to, like, Band Aid fix just to get to a number.

我这儿还有一长串问题要问，所以想继续推进。不过在进入下一轮提问前，我必须提一下——我认为你最好的帖子之一是关于日历漂移的，即模型中时间错位的问题。这种现象反复出现，无论是招聘时间与成果产出的错位，还是为达成目标调整模型导致的时间轴变动。请结合你的经验谈谈日历漂移，举例说明它在实际业务中的表现，以及你推荐的解决方案。

I have, like, a laundry list of other questions here, so I wanna move on. However, before we move to the next round of questions, I have to bring up I I thought one of your best posts was the one on calendar drift, the idea of misaligned timing in models because that you see it time and again, whether it's timing of when you hire people versus when this result happens or things just get shifted around based on when you're tweaking a model to hit a number or whatever. But walk me through your experience with calendar drift and maybe some examples of how it shows up in in real businesses and what your recommended fix on that is.

是的。所谓日历漂移更多是时间定义上的错位。它可能出现在收入确认的各个环节——招聘日期对不上、甚至佣金发错季度。比如有个案例：财务计划与分析部门按‘我们Q3招人’做预算，打算把招聘成本均摊到三个月。对吧？

Yeah. So calendar drift is more of just a misalignment in the definition of timing. And it can really show up everywhere in your revenue recognition, misaligned hiring dates, and even like commissions paid in the wrong quarter. And so there was this one situation where FP and A is budgeting based off a, hey, we're gonna hire in q three So we're gonna take that hiring cost and we're just gonna smooth it out overall three months. Right?

明白。这同样适用于收入端，比如销售部门招聘新代表时说的‘我需要3-4个月适应期’这种场景。

Alright. I mean, this could be revenue too. This could be sales. This could be hiring new sales reps and the ramp up time. And sales says, hey, I I need three to four months.

好，那具体是多久？三个月还是四个月？人力资源部是在月末两周集中招聘，还是均匀分布在整个季度？

Okay. Well, when exactly? Do you need three months? Do you need four months? With HR, are you hiring like the last two weeks or are you hiring evenly throughout the month?

这些细节在外人看来或许微不足道，但我称之为日历蠕变——正是那种积少成多的致命问题。这里差两周，那里差一周，成本超支和收入缺口就这么累积起来了。归根结底还是沟通艺术：必须追问具体时点。

And those little things outside looking in maybe seem like not that big of a deal, but it's really I call it calendar creep. It's one of those areas where you really can die a death by a thousand cuts. Two weeks here, a week there, those costs and revenue misses, they add up. So it really just comes down again to communication and asking the right question. When exactly?

当你说Q2时具体指什么？是从Q1开始招聘以确保Q2到岗？还是Q2才启动流程？这些时间差在模型里会产生重大影响。

When you say q two, what exactly do you mean? Are you starting to hire in q one so that you can fill those spots in q two? Or are you starting the process in q two? Right? Like, it's even those timing misses that that mean mean a big deal in your model.

完全同意。特别是存在叠加效应时——就像你举的销售团队例子：新人何时入职？适应期多长？

Yeah. Absolutely. Because especially when things build on it. I think your example of the like, hiring salespeople is like, well, when do they come on? What's their ramp period?

我们要推动营收增长，就必须明确是1月还是3月启动。确实如此。

So we're trying to drive revenue. We need to know, is it January or is it March? And yeah.

没错。如果1月到岗，那需要多长招聘周期？三周、四周还是五周？所有这些时间差都必须充分讨论并达成共识。

Right. Right. And if and if they're coming on in January, how long do you need to source for that candidate? Are we talking three weeks, four weeks, five weeks? I mean, all of those little timing differences, you you gotta talk through and really make sure that you understand it.

你提到的关键点在于：不能简单套用假设，而要注重沟通。你说过‘语言而非模型才是CFO的战略武器’，这个认知突破很重要——人们总想通过技术专精来晋升，但真正的安全区其实是回归模型做 forensic accounting（法务会计）。而向管理层、员工、投资者或董事会传达洞察的叙事能力，才是这个职位的核心。

Yeah. And you mentioned the real key there being not just taking assumptions and putting them in, but communication. And you've said that language, not models, that's the real strategic stack for CFOs. And it's that's a big unlock for people to understand because I think people love moving up by being that technically proficient and getting more and more insights, but the that safety place is going back to the model and going back to, let me figure this out, and let me dive in and be this forensic accountant and and figure all this out. But the storytelling part of being able to convey your findings to the management, to employees, to investors, to the board, whoever, is is very important part of the job.

这种能力未必与生俱来，也不同于建模技能。根据你的经验，如何从信息式汇报升级为战略式沟通？财务领导者该如何把握‘地图与地形’的关系——既基于模型洞察，又能实现最佳传达效果？

And it's one that, you know, maybe doesn't doesn't come naturally. It's not the same it's not from the same skill set as it is to build the models. So I'm wondering, in your experience, what makes that financial communication how do you get to that strategic instead of just informative approach? And what do finance leaders need to keep in mind, again, back to that map versus the terrain of, okay, we have these insights that are in our models. Now I need to communicate them for for max results.

是的。我认为这源于一种心态，即你不仅仅是为了提供数字而存在。作为财务规划与分析（FP&A）或首席财务官（CFO）专业人士，你应该理解数字，也应该理解业务。这又回到了沟通的问题上。你应该成为两者之间的桥梁。

Yeah. I think it comes from just having the mindset that you aren't there just to provide numbers. You as an FP and A CFO professional should understand the numbers and you should understand the business. And that kinda goes back to the communication. You should be the bridge between that.

因此，不仅仅是说我们的收入达到了目标的X，息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）达到了目标的Y。在我们之前的对话中，当你开始深入探讨原因时，解决方案就会自然浮现。如果你把自己定位为一个不羞于提出建议的领导者，比如‘如果我们这样做，结果会是那样’，那么情况就会不同。我个人很难不发表自己的意见，我觉得这就是我的天性。

So rather than just saying our revenue was x to goal, our EBITDA was y to goal. When you start to, in our previous conversations, drill into the whys, then solutions start to present themselves. And if you establish yourself as a leader who is not bashful about saying, hey, if we did this, the outcome would be that. And I personally have a hard time not giving my opinion. I think that's just how it was created.

但对于那些可能有些害羞或胆怯的人来说，企业中没有人能像你一样，既能从宏观的30,000英尺视角，又能从细节视角来看待业务，因为你掌握了数据。你应该在整个视角中寻找答案和解决方案。其他人可能只看到自己的小圈子。在财务领域，我们处于独特的位置，能够看到发生了什么、将会发生什么，以及我们在哪些方面造成了滞后或错位，然后你才能开始提出建议。

But for those who maybe are a little bashful or timid about that, there's no one else in the business who sees the business from, like, both the 30,000 foot view and, like, the detailed view because you have the numbers. Like, you should be looking for your answers and solutions within that entire view. Right? Everyone else is kinda just seeing their silo. In finance, we're positioned uniquely to be able to see what happened, what will happen, what are we doing that's creating a lag or a misalignment, And then you can start to offer suggestions.

所以，这就是我在整个方面的立场——传达你所看到的。你必须接受有时你的意见会被采纳，有时不会，但提出意见仍然是有价值的，因为你掌握了全局。

So that's kind of where I am in in that whole aspect is communicating what you see. And you have to be okay with sometimes your conversation lands and sometimes it doesn't, but it's still valuable to offer it because you have the whole picture.

是的。就像你之前说的，你不仅仅是作为一个‘坏警察’给大家发成绩单，管理层聘请战略CFO的原因不仅仅是传递那些事后数字，而是提供战略洞察。他们不一定要采纳。CEO不一定要接受其他高管团队的建议，但这就是你存在的意义。

Yeah. And like you said earlier, you don't you're not just there being the bad cop giving everybody their report cards, but the reason that management brings on strategic CFO is not just to pass on those those postmortem numbers. It is to give that strategic insight. They don't have to take it. The CEO doesn't have to take the counsel of any of the rest of the c suite, but that's why you're there.

不仅仅是传递信息。但协作决策可能会很混乱，这取决于你所在的公司。但如果你遇到过这种情况，或者你有什么方法可以引导整个高管团队理解FP&A的真正价值，而不仅仅是把我们视为裁判或成绩单发放者？

It's not just to be passing through information. And but collaborative decision making can be chaotic, and it is it depends on the company where you are. But if you ever had a situation or or what's your approach where you have to kinda guide the full executive team towards understanding the real value of FP and A and not just seeing us as the referee or or report card issuer?

是的，这很难。我想说我100%的时间都能从那个角度领导，但现实是并非每个人都愿意倾听，也并非每个人都和你有同样的看法，这没关系。如果我身处一个觉得自己无法贡献的组织，我知道那时我并没有发挥出最佳水平。所以那大概就是我该把所有事情都收拾妥当，然后交给别人的时候了。

Yeah. That's a hard one, and I I would like to say that a 100% of the time, I I get to lead from that perspective. But the reality is is that not everyone is open to listening and not everyone sees it the way that you do and that is okay. I'm in a position where if I'm in an organization where I don't feel like I'm contributing, I know then that I'm not giving my best work. And so that's probably about the time that I will ensure that everything is wrapped up in a nice little bow and then I'll hand it over to someone else.

通常，我交接的那个人对公司来说会是一个不错的选择，因为他们成本更低。但公司必须真正决定是否需要这种战略伙伴关系，因为这是不同的角色。CFO应该是战略性的。FP&A分析师则取决于你的需求，可以只是输出数据，也可以是战略性的。

Typically, the person that I hand it over to, it's it would be a win for the company at that point anyway because they'll be less expensive. Right? But you have to really, as a company, decide if you want that strategic partnership or not because those are different roles. CFO should be strategic. An FP and A analyst, you know, depending on what you want could either be just that output or it could be strategic.

如果你想担任战略角色，那么再次强调，这需要对自己和组织保持绝对的诚实。如果你们不匹配，没关系，还有很多其他公司会需要你。

And if you wanna be in a strategic role, then again, it goes back to brutal honesty with yourself and with the organization. And if you're not aligned, that's okay. Many other companies will be.

是的。从和你的交谈中，我能看出你对这个问题有非常清晰的见解和思考，我想这一定是因为你花时间写作。作为一个自己也写过几本书的人，我知道写作是真正厘清自己观点的一种方式。但我好奇的是，起初我以为这很罕见。但当你想到我们在财务领域所做的这种叙事和额外层次时，确实有一部分人会倾向于写作，这是有道理的。

Yeah. You know, from talking to you, I can tell that you you've developed very clear insights and and thoughts about this, and I I have to think that that comes from taking the time to write on this. And as someone who's written a couple books myself, I know that that can be a way to really crystallize your own views. But I'm wondering, like, at first, I thought this would be a rarity. But when you think about that storytelling and that extra level that we're we're doing in finance, it does make sense, I think, for a a portion of us to lean towards writing.

但我想知道是什么促使你开始公开写作，跟我聊聊这段历程，以及为何你认为你的信息现在能引起如此强烈的共鸣。

But wondering what made you start writing publicly, and tell me about your journey there and and why you think your message is resonating so strongly now.

是的。首先，我认为产生共鸣是因为我们正目睹各个领域都在发生转变——人们开始冒险将自我展现到网络上。新冠疫情确实加速了这个趋势，对吧？社交媒体的大规模普及。

Yeah. Well, I mean, first of all, I think it's resonating because we're just seeing a shift, think, in every vein where people are taking risks and they're putting their self, you know, online. I think COVID really helped to push that forward. Right? The social media forward.

我开始写作主要是因为厌倦了反复目睹这样的场景：聪明人在会议室里默许团队推行某些方案却无人质疑。我们可能说着技术正确的话，但没人指出'这不符合实际业务逻辑'。我不断看到企业因未能理解各种细节因素如何影响高管层关注的核心指标而业绩不达标，更困惑为何要因团队不认可的方案而惩罚他们？

And I started mainly writing because I was tired of sitting in the room time after time watching smart people nod quietly that something was being pushed or communicated in a team and it was just it went unchallenged. So like we would say something technically correct, but no one would call out that, hey. That's not really how the business works. And I I kept seeing organizations miss their numbers because they didn't understand the depth and the details of how all these different lepers play into that main lever that the CC suite was looking at. And the disconnect of why are we punishing teams for a full cast they didn't believe in?

为何要假装差异分析具有战略意义？为何将人力编制视为简单的报表项目而非能助力达标、甚至可智能调配的真实人力资源限制？当我开始说'我受够了伪装'这样的话时，人们产生了共鸣——这就是坦诚的力量，对吧？

Why we're pretending variance analysis is strategic? And why is headcount treated like, you know, just simple line item and calculation rather than real human constraint that can be used to hit our metrics and we can even be smart about it? It started to resonate with people when I started to say things like I'm done pretending. Like it's candor. Right?

正如我之前提到的，这种公开表达在持续进行的月度/季度复盘中也对我有帮助。如果我的观点不够完善，同行会反馈'或许可以换个角度'或提出补充。通过在线分享想法，我也收获了大量精彩反馈。现在我们形成了一个互助社群，而非仅仅竞争同一个职位。

And like I mentioned before, it's it's helpful in an ongoing March or March review for me too. Right? If if I put something out there and it's not really landing well, my counterparts will let me know that hey, there's maybe another way to look at this or yes and. And by putting my ideas out online, I get a lot of great ideas back too. And so now we become a community rather than just all trying to compete for the same role.

我们可以通过思想共享，共同将财务规划与分析（FP&A）提升到更具战略性的高度。

We can kind of use each other's mind share to collectively rise FP and A up to a more strategic level.

这个观点太棒了。我知道观众们也很欣赏你的见解。虽然我常问嘉宾这个问题，但今天想为你调整一下——因为你似乎不惧挑战某些'神圣不可侵犯'的领域。对于当前深耕FP&A领域、熟悉行业态势的专业人士，我通常让他们预测未来三到五年的发展。但我想问你：你认为未来三五年内，哪个被视为神圣的财务流程或思维模式会彻底消失？

I love that. And I know our audience is appreciating your insights on that as well. So I ask guests this question a lot, but I'm gonna I'm gonna twist the question a little bit for you because I I feel like you're you're not scared to take aim at some some sacred cows. So, you know, I I always for people who are really tuned in and and working in FP and A right now and and kinda know where the landscape is, I always like to ask the guests to get their crystal ball out and picture where we'll be in the next three to five years. But I'm gonna ask you, what is a sacred finance process or mindset that you think will just abandon entirely in the next, I don't know, three to five years?

我认为我们已深入讨论过要提到的两点。其一是将年度预算奉为全年金科玉律的做法。我们需要基准线没错，但滚动预测配合业务认知能让我们实时调整。相比固守年度预算，灵活的滚动预测模型将更具价值。其二与之相关的是自上而下的指令式管理。

I think we've we've kind of talked about both of the things I'm gonna mention here and I think we've talked about it in great detail. One is the annual budget being like this golden idol that we use throughout the rest of the year. Again, let's have a baseline, but with rolling forecast and knowing your business, you can shift as all of the changes start to happen in real time. So I think rolling forecast and flexible modeling will be it'll be more helpful than the holding ourselves to an annual budget. The other aspect that I would say is kind of that and it goes along with the annual budgeting, is that top down directive.

我们必须诚实地呈现从A到B的路径，而非仅因董事会和投资者要求就承诺达成B。既要问责团队，也要真实透明地展示实现路径及强行跳跃到B的代价——这对人员、流程和产品意味着什么？因为总有取舍存在。

Like, I think we need to be honest about how we get from a to b rather than just promising b because the boarder and the investors want them. You know, holding ourselves accountable and our team accountable, but also giving true visibility and true honesty about how we get there and what that means if we jump straight to b. Right? Like, what does that mean for our people process and product? Because there is always a trade off.

简言之，我们需要更诚实地对待数字及其影响方式，而非仅仅汇报数字本身。

So just just getting more honest about the numbers and how to impact them rather than just reporting on them.

没错，超爱这个环节。好的，现在进入节目固定环节，我们要向每位嘉宾提出两个经典问题。第一个是：关于你，有什么是大多数人不了解的事？

Yeah. Love it. Alright. We're at the time of the show where we have our our two boilerplate questions that we ask everyone. And the first one is, what is something that not many people know about you?

如今很少有人知道我的内心其实充满艺术细胞。我曾是创作型歌手，在亚特兰大周边的小酒吧和咖啡馆驻唱多年，试图把音乐作为全职事业——就像个迷你版琼尼·米切尔追随者。

Not many people today know that I am creative at heart. So I was a singer songwriter. I played in little bars and coffee shops around Atlanta for several several years. I was I was trying to do that as a full time job. I was like a a mini Joni Mitchell wannabe.

这段经历深刻影响了我。写歌和现场演出让我始终注重最终效果：音色把控、节奏安排、词曲传达的感染力。这种思维至今仍在工作中延续——团队优先、结果导向、注重信息传递效果，以及如何激发变革创新。

And I think for me, you know, because I wrote songs and played live shows, a lot of what I did was with the end in mind thinking about tone, timing and how how my songwriting landed. And I don't think that that ever truly left. So it's a lot of people first, team first, what's the outcome, how is the message gonna land, and how do we incite change and innovation through that. I I've kind of carried that into my work life. And that's how I kind of lean into the creative side.

真棒。现在还偶尔演出吗？

That's great. That's great. Do you still play out at all? Or

已经不演了。我把音乐火炬传给了弹吉他的儿子。小女儿特别喜欢听我弹唱，说实话这确实是我希望投入更多时间的领域，等将来一定会重拾起来。

I don't. I've passed that torch onto my son who plays guitar. Now I miss it. My smallest kid, she loves when I sing and and when I play guitar. But honestly, it's one area where I wish I had more time and eventually, I'll make more time for it.

明白。接下来是观众最爱的环节：你最喜欢的Excel函数是什么？为什么？

Yep. Yep. Alright. Everybody's favorite question. What is your favorite Excel function and why?

这大概是我说过最引发争议的观点——特别是对新一代财务分析师们。毫无疑问是INDEX MATCH函数，甚至优于XLOOKUP。

I think this is my most controversial thing I've talked about ever, especially with modern FP and A analysts. Right? The new guys. Index match, hands down, even over x lookup.

确实，INDEX MATCH在这里是高频答案。前几天刚有人给出相同回答，很多从业者都在用它。

Yeah. That's the index match is actually a pretty popular answer here. There's a lot of a lot of people out there using that and love it. So actually, I was just talking to someone the other day and that that was the same answer they gave. Yeah.

我专门写文章对比过INDEX MATCH和XLOOKUP。结果年轻分析师们几乎都在用这个答案调侃我的年龄，那是我第一次在社交平台感受到火力——原来这里也会遭遇围攻啊。

I so I wrote about it and actually challenged index match against, like, x lookup. And the amount of analysts who were younger than me, it's pretty much calling me out for my age with that answer. I was kind of like shocked. I think it was the first post where I was really like, oh, okay. I I can be attacked here.

对吧？这个话题意外暴露了我的软肋。

Right? Like, there's some vulnerability here. That was the one.

好吧，如果这能让你感觉好些的话。我在2007年2月首次担任首席财务官，这大概能让你猜出我的年龄。即便如此，我依然不畏惧使用VLOOKUP函数。可见我深入接触财务模型已是多年前的事了。

Well, I'll if it makes you feel any better. So I had my first CFO role back in 02/2007. So that's giving you an idea of how old I am. So I'm still not scared to use VLOOKUP. So that's how long it's been since I've been deep in models.

所以你

So You

知道吗，我发现自己会本能地开始输入VLOOKUP，然后不得不删除换成

know, I I use, I think, instinctively start to type VLOOKUP, and then we'll have to delete and put in

XLOOKUP。好的，这次对话非常愉快。不过在结束前——我们也会把信息放在节目备注里——听众们该如何联系你、关注你的文章并与你建立联系呢？

an x. Alright. Well, this has this has been great. Before you go, though, and we'll put it in the show notes as well, but how can our listeners get in touch with you, follow your your writing, and and connect with you?

最简单的方式是通过领英，搜索Sarah Schlatt就能找到我。我经常在那里发布短评。如果想看更详细的文章，可以访问sarahgschlatt.com。

Sure. I think the easiest place is LinkedIn. Just search Sarah Schlatt. And because I do like many blurbs there. And then if you want to see the writings where I go into a little bit more detail, that's at sarahgschlatt.com.

当然，如果你是正在寻找业务与财务数据间桥梁的创业者，可以访问schwattco.com，那里详细介绍了我们的服务内容。

And of course, if you're a founder who's looking for the bridge between your business and your numbers, you can check us out on the schwattco.com. That gives you a little bit more of what our services and offerings are.

太棒了。Sarah，非常感谢你参加节目，这次交流非常愉快，很高兴我们能进行这次对话。

Love it. Well, Sarah, thank you so much for coming on the show. Really enjoyed it and and glad we got to do this.

谢谢邀请，这是我的荣幸。

Thank you for having me. It's it's been a pleasure.