附加：为什么租金管制不起作用（更新）

嘿，你好。

Hey there.

我是史蒂文·杜布纳。

It's Steven Dubner.

是的，我们突然闯入了你的《魔鬼经济学》播客频道，带来一集特别节目。

And, yes, we are busting into your Freakonomics Radio feed with a bonus episode.

2019年，我们发布了一期关于一个问题及其可能解决方案的节目。

In 2019, we put out an episode about a problem and a possible solution.

问题是租金上涨，尤其是在沿海城市。

The problem was rising rents, particularly in coastal cities.

提出的解决方案是租金管制，即限制房东可收取租金的法律。

The proposed solution was rent control, laws that put a limit on what landlords can charge.

你可能会觉得这似乎是个合理的解决方案，但几乎所有经济学家都基于大量研究认为，租金管制带来的害处多于好处。

You can see why that might seem to be a sensible solution, but nearly all economists agree based on volumes of research that rent control does more harm than good.

自从我们制作了那期节目后，这个问题变得更严重了。

Since we made that episode, the problem has gotten worse.

根据哈佛大学住房研究联合中心的一份报告，全国租金上涨了26%，而在纽约等城市，涨幅甚至更高，纽约已成为租金危机的典型代表。

According to a report from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, rents have risen 26% nationally and even more in cities like New York, which has become the poster child for the rent crisis.

因此，政策制定者再次回到了租金管制的想法上。

And so once again, policymakers have returned to the idea of rent control.

就在本月，拜登政府敦促国会通过立法，要求拥有50套以上房产的房东将年租金涨幅限制在5%以内，否则将失去联邦税收优惠。

Just this month, the Biden administration pushed congress to pass legislation that would force landlords with more than 50 units to cap annual rent increases at 5% or risk losing federal tax breaks.

所以我们认为，现在是重新审视2019年那期关于租金管制及其为何无效的节目的好时机。

So we thought it was a good time to revisit that twenty nineteen episode about rent control and why it does not work.

我们已根据需要更新了相关数据和事实。

We have updated facts and figures where necessary.

一如既往，感谢收听。

As always, thanks for listening.

我相信你已经知道这一点了，但我还是再说一遍。

I'm sure you know this already, but let me say it anyway.

城市在全球范围内变得越来越受欢迎。

Cities have become really popular all over the world.

美国及全球人口中居住在城市的比例持续上升，且这一比例预计还会进一步扩大。

An ever larger share of The US and global population lives in cities, and that large share is expected to get even larger.

随着对城市生活的需求增长，住房供应往往难以跟上，这导致了——你也知道——价格的上涨。

As demand for city living grows, the supply of housing often can't keep up, which results in, and you know this too, a rise in prices.

在美国，中位数租金自20世纪90年代以来翻了一番，远超通货膨胀率。

In The US, median rent has doubled since the nineteen nineties, outpacing inflation by quite a bit.

在许多城市，这使得现有居民难以留下，也让想搬来的人望而却步。

In many cities, this makes it hard for people who already live there there to stay and hard for people who'd like to move there.

我敢肯定你听说过伦敦、香港、西雅图和旧金山等城市令人震惊的房租故事。

I'm sure you've heard the horror stories about rents in cities like London and Hong Kong, Seattle, and San Francisco.

纽约市的住房问题如此严重，甚至催生了一个新的政党。

The problem is so bad in New York City that it inspired a new political party.

我代表的是房租太高了党。

I represent the rent that's too damn high party.

人们每天工作八小时，每周工作四十小时，有些人甚至还得打第三份工。

People are working eight hours a day and forty hours a week because some are third job.

纽约像许多城市一样，随着时间的推移实施了各种经济适用房政策。

New York, like many cities, has over time put in place various affordable housing policies.

一种历史悠久的做法是某种形式的租金管制。

One time honored tradition is some form of rent control.

这可能意味着限制房东可以收取的最高租金，或限制租金上涨的幅度。

That might mean setting a price cap on what a landlord can charge or limiting the amount the rent can be raised.

以下是斯坦福大学经济学家丽贝卡·戴蒙德的说法。

Here's the Stanford economist Rebecca Diamond.

从经济学角度来看，它能为居民提供保障，防止被排挤出自己的社区。

From an economics point of view, it provides insurance against getting priced out of your neighborhood.

租金管制似乎正迎来一个高潮。

And rent control seems to be having a moment.

它已经在许多地方存在了。

It already exists in a number of places.

美国最昂贵的城市几乎都实行了租金管制。

The most expensive cities in The US, they almost all have rent control.

而且这种需求正在蔓延。

And the appetite is spreading.

当房价和租金上涨时，你会看到租金管制在政治上频频出现。

You see rent control popping up politically when housing prices and rents are going up.

今天在《魔鬼经济学》广播节目中，我们来探讨租金管制的效果如何？

Today on Freakonomics Radio, how well does rent control work?

与许多涉及多方利益和复杂激励机制的复杂问题一样，答案取决于你问的是谁。

As with many complicated issues that have multiple actors and crossed incentives, the answer depends on whom you ask.

我支持住宅租金管制和租金监管。

Well, I'm in favor of residential rent control and rent regulations.

如果你从零开始设计一个最有效的租金监管体系，它会是什么样子？

If you were starting from scratch and you were designing the most efficient rent regulation system, what would that look like?

除了轰炸之外，我知道没有比租金管制更有效的摧毁一座城市的方法了。

Short of bombing, I know of no way to destroy a city that was more effective than rent control.

这里是《魔鬼经济学》广播节目，这档播客探索一切事物的隐秘面，由主持人史蒂文·莱维特主持。

This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with your host, Steven Dubner.

大多数

Most

经济学家认为，租金管制是一个糟糕的主意，几乎任何形式的价格管制都是如此。

economists say that rent control is a bad idea, as is just about any form of price control.

他们相信，当供需关系能够自由地通过价格作为调节机制达到自然均衡时，市场运作得最好。

They believe that markets work best when supply and demand are allowed to find a natural equilibrium with price acting as the referee.

以下是这样一位经济学家。

Here's one such economist.

我叫爱德·格莱泽，是哈佛大学的弗雷德和埃莉诺·格莱泽经济学教授，我教授微观经济理论和城市经济学。

My name is Ed Glaeser, and I am the Fred and Eleanor Glimp professor of economics at Harvard, where I teach both microeconomic theory and the economics of cities.

埃德，你有一分钟时间说服别人租金管制是个糟糕的主意。

Ed, you have one minute to convince someone that rent control is a terrible idea.

开始吧。

Go.

好吧。

Alright.

他们已经浪费了我五秒钟。

So they they've already squandered five of my seconds.

这并不公平。

It's not particularly fair.

这不是分配稀缺住房的好方法。

It's not a good way of allocating scarce space.

这不是帮助弱势群体的好方法。

It's not a good way of helping the downtrodden.

这种方式冻结了城市，使其无法适应变化。

It's a way that freezes a city and stops it from adjusting to changes.

这种方式将人们固定在公寓里，阻止了城市固有的流动性。

It's a way that freezes people in apartments and stops the motion that is inherent in cities.

所以，至少这是基本的经济学观点。

So that's a baseline economic take, at least.

让我们从租金管制的简要历史开始，来剖析这个问题。

Let's try to unravel this issue, starting with a brief history of rent control.

租金管制在第二次世界大战期间变得非常普遍。

Rent controls really became ubiquitous in World War two.

当时的思路是，国家正在为争取世界自由而付出生命，而一些处境优越的人却通过提高租金来获取额外收益，这似乎很不公平——尤其是当那些租客的子女正在海外为美国作战时。因此，租金管制被视为一种在二战期间让美国更公平的方式。

And the idea here was the nation was, you know, laying down its life to try and, you know, bring bring freedom to the world, and it seemed wrong that some people who are well placed should earn some form of of extra bonuses by being able to raise up rents on people maybe whose sons and daughters were off fighting for the for The US elsewhere, and rent control was seen as being a way of somehow or other trying to keep America being a a bit fairer during World War two.

在这一时期，许多地方都引入了租金管制。

Now lots of places introduced rent control during this period.

战争结束后，大多数地方取消了它，因为当初的理由不再那么紧迫，但一些城市保留了下来。

After the war, most of them got rid of it because that cause seemed to be a little bit less pressing, but some cities kept it.

而纽约无疑是至今仍保留租金管制的最著名城市。

And New York, of course, is the most famous place that still has it.

格莱泽本人就是在纽约长大的。

Glaeser himself grew up in New York.

你知道，我生命中的头十年都住在租金稳定型公寓里。

And, you know, I lived in a rent stabilized unit for the first ten years of of my life.

我的意思是，当时纽约市约有72%到74%的家庭是租房的。

I mean, something like 72, 74% of New York City's households were renters in those days.

事实上，二十世纪七十年代中期，纽约的住房并不算贵，因此可负担性在当时并不是像今天这样突出的问题。

And indeed, you know, the mid nineteen seventies was an era in which New York's housing didn't, you know, didn't seem that expensive, and so affordability just wasn't the same issue that it was today.

现在让我们快进三十年，这些城市取得了巨大成功，但它们没有建造足够的住房来满足新增需求，面临沦为只有富人才能负担的精品城镇的风险，人们迫切希望这些城市不要将所有贫困居民挤出，不要变成围绕特权和富人构建的单一文化，而租金管制似乎至少是一条解决途径，但它是一种非常粗糙的手段。

Now flash forward thirty years, the cities have been enormously successful, they haven't built enough to accommodate the new demand, they risk becoming boutique towns affordable only to the wealthy, and people are desperate to see that those cities don't, you know, push out every poor resident, that they don't become monocultures built around the privileged and the rich, and rent control appears to be at least one avenue for doing it, but it's a very blunt instrument.

有多粗糙呢？

Just how blunt?

几十年来的经济学研究都描述了租金管制的弊端。

There are decades worth of economic research describing the downsides of rent control.

第一篇重要的论文是1946年由米尔顿·弗里德曼和乔治·斯蒂格勒撰写的。

The first major paper was written in 1946 by Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

以下是弗里德曼的观点。

Here's Friedman.

租金管制是一项旨在帮助住房租户的法律，它确实帮助了当前的租户。

Rent control is a law that supposedly is passed to help the people who are in housing, and it does help those who are in current housing.

但租金管制的效果是造成住房短缺，使其他人难以获得住房。

But the effect of rent control is to create scarcity and to make it difficult for other people to get housing.

这种短缺是从哪里来的？

Where did this scarcity come from?

一方面，如果对租金设定了上限，开发商建造新房的动机就会减少。

For one, developers had less incentive to build new housing if there was a ceiling placed on what they could charge.

弗里德曼还指出，租金管制会导致住房分配的混乱和任意性。

Friedman also argued that rent control created a haphazard and arbitrary allocation of space.

埃德加·奥尔森在1972年的一篇论文中也表达了类似观点，发现租金管制导致经济学家所说的住房过度消费。

This was echoed in a 1972 paper by Edgar Olson, which found that rent control led to what economists call an overconsumption of housing.

假设你在1955年租了一套纽约的公寓。

Let's say you rented an apartment in New York in 1955.

你有三个年幼的孩子，于是租了一间三居室。

You had three small kids, you rented a three bedroom.

这套房子完全符合你和正在成长的孩子们的需求。

It was perfectly matched for the needs of you, with your kids growing up.

孩子们在七十年代初搬出了家。

They moved out of the house in the early seventies.

到了八十年代末，也许你的丈夫或妻子去世了，你独自一人住在纽约的一套三居室公寓里。

By the late eighties, maybe your husband or wife actually died, and you're living on your own in a three bedroom apartment in New York.

但天啊，你会搬出去吗？

But my goodness, would you ever move out?

你的租金只是市场租金的一小部分。

Your rent is a fraction of what the market rent is.

我最喜欢的一个关于这个的故事，出自肯·奥莱塔的《街道铺满了黄金》，他引用了世界著名烟商纳特·谢尔曼的话，这位第五大道的知名人物说，你知道，他付的租金——我忘了具体是多少。

One of my favorite stories about this, and this is quoted by Ken Oletta's, The Streets Were Paved With Gold, He cites Nat Sherman, the famous tobacconist to the world about this big shot on 5th Avenue, who said that, you know, he pays, I forget what it was.

这里写着，一套六居室的公寓，每月仅355美元。

$355 a month for a six room apartment, it says here.

这难道不令人惊叹吗？

Isn't that amazing?

请记住，这是几十年前的事了，简直是天大的优惠。

So it's keep in mind, it's a few decades ago, it's an unbelievable deal.

但令人愤慨的是，他接着说，我觉得这很公平，因为我很少使用它。

Now what's outrageous about this is he then says, I think it's fair because I use it so rarely.

对吧？

Right?

这意味着他从这套公寓里获得的价值非常少。

Which means that he's not getting very much value out of it.

但令人震惊的是，有很多纽约人非常渴望拥有这套公寓，他们能从中获得多得多的价值。

But the crazy thing about this is there were lots of New Yorkers who would love to have that apartment and who would get a lot more value out of it.

1997年，爱德华·格莱泽对纽约市的租金管制进行了自己的分析，试图确定其经济低效的程度。

In 1997, Ed Glaeser did his own analysis of rent control in New York City, trying to determine just how economically inefficient it was.

他与合作者埃尔佐·卢特默发现，‘这种卧室资源的错配导致消费者每年损失的福利可能超过5亿美元，这还不包括因住房供应不足带来的社会损失。’

He and his coauthor, Erzo Luttmer, found that, quote, this misallocation of bedrooms leads to a loss in welfare, which could be well over $500,000,000 annually to the consumers of New York before we even consider the social losses due to undersupply of housing.

格莱泽的研究还激励了一代新的经济学家进一步深化关于租金管制的文献。

Glaeser's work has also inspired a new generation of economists to further the literature on rent control.

历史上，人们在论证租金管制时更依赖理论。

Historically, people relied much more in theory in making their arguments about rent control.

这是丽贝卡·戴蒙德再次提到的。

That's Rebecca Diamond again.

她是爱德·格莱泽的前学生。

She's a former student of Ed Glaeser's.

即使没有大量数据，你也可以对租金管制可能对住房市场造成的影响做出一些相当简单的理论预测。

Because even without a lot of data, you can make some pretty simple theoretical predictions about what rent control might do to a housing market.

但有些事情是单靠理论无法告诉你的。

But there are some things that theory alone cannot tell you.

租金管制文献中最大的开放性问题之一是，那些获得租金管制的租户会发生什么？

One of the biggest open questions in the literature of rent control is what happens to those tenants that get rent control?

实际上，租户从中受益了多少？

Really, how much are the renters benefiting?

因为他们才是租金管制的潜在最大受益者。

Because they're the potential big winners of rent control.

要衡量这一点，你真的需要掌握所有获得租金管制的人的居住地数据，以及他们是否决定留在该租金管制住房中，还是搬去别处。

And to measure that, you really need to have data on where everybody lives who gets access to rent control, and whether they decide to stay in that rent control department or go somewhere else.

而经济学家通常使用的传统数据来源很少追踪人口迁移。

And traditional data sources that economists work with very rarely track migration

租金管制扩展对租户、房东和不平等的影响：来自旧金山的证据。

Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality, Evidence from San Francisco.

首先，你能谈谈这些数据吗？

First, if you would talk about the data.

是的，我们有一些非常棒的数据。

So, yeah, we have some really cool data.

传统的数据集可以获取收入和收入分布等信息，但不会包含他们的迁移情况。

So traditional datasets, you can get things on the distribution of earnings and income, things like that, but you won't also see their migration.

因此，我们拥有这种你可以称为行政数据的信息，它追踪了人们的住址历史。

So we have this, you could call administrative data, which tracks people's address histories.

这些迁移数据是从哪里来的？

And where did these migratory data come from?

我们从一家名为Infutor的公司购买了这些数据。

We bought them from a company called Infutor.

他们是一家从事身份管理的公司。

They are a company that works in identity management.

因此，他们拥有每个人的地址历史记录，这些记录是从多个不同来源收集并整合而成的，这对需要跟踪最新地址的私营部门和企业非常有用。

So they have this history of addresses for everyone, which they collect from a number of different sources and stitch them together, which is very useful for the private sector and firms that need to keep track of up to date addresses.

但从研究角度来看，这些数据非常令人兴奋，因为它们规模庞大且细节丰富。

But from a research perspective, it's super exciting data because it's so big and so detailed.

借助这些关于个体租户的令人兴奋的数据，戴蒙德和她的同事们着手衡量旧金山租金管制的长期影响。

Armed with this super exciting data on individual tenants, Diamond and her fellow researchers set out to measure some of the long term effects of rent control in San Francisco.

他们特别利用了该市租金法律的一项变更。

They made particular use of a change in the city's rent laws.

旧金山虽然有租金管制，但并未适用于该市许多较小的公寓楼。

San Francisco had rent control, but it didn't apply to many of the city's smaller apartment buildings.

而这一豁免基本上被认为是：这些是小规模的房东。

And the exemption was basically thought of as, well, these are mom and pop landlords.

他们没有市场支配力。

They don't have market power.

他们不是公司。

They're not corporations.

所以我们不需要对他们的租金进行监管。

So we we don't need to regulate their rents.

然后报纸报道说，这些较小的多户住宅建筑正越来越多地被企业实体收购，因为这才是房地产市场中真正能赚钱的地方。

And then newspapers reported that those smaller multifamily buildings were increasingly purchased by, you know, corporate entities because that's really where you could make your money in the housing market.

这导致了1994年的一次全民公投，全市居民投票决定是否取消这项针对小型多户住宅的豁免，从而将租金管制扩展到不仅大型多户住宅，也包括小型多户住宅。

And that led to a vote in 1994 where everyone in the city got to vote about whether we could remove this small multifamily exemption, and that would then expand rent control not just to the large multifamily housing stock, but also the small multifamily housing stock.

这项提案确实通过了。

And that indeed passed.

所以你们有了这项很棒的新法律——至少对你们这些研究者来说很棒，它让你能清晰地标出政策实施前后的变化。

So you've got this awesome new law, awesome for you guys, at least, as as researchers that lets you mark before and after.

这是一个完美的自然实验，有对照组，再加上这些出色的数据集。

It's a perfect little natural experiment with a control group, and then you've got these wonderful datasets.

然后你们把所有这些数据整合起来进行分析，得出了以下结论。

And then you mash up all of these data together and analyze it, and you find the following.

你们的论文得出结论，其中一项发现是：租金管制将租户的流动性降低了20%，并减少了少数族裔从旧金山迁出的情况。

Your paper concludes that, among many things, quote, rent control limits renters' mobility by 20% and lowers displacement from San Francisco, especially for minorities.

那我们先从这一点开始。

So let let's start with this.

租金控制使租户的流动性降低20%具体是什么意思？为什么这很重要？

What does it mean exactly that renters mobility is lowered by 20%, and why is that important?

我们研究的是那些获得租金控制的租户是否选择留在他们新获得租金控制的公寓里。

So we look at whether the renters who get access to rent control choose to remain in their newly rent controlled apartment.

我们发现，相对于没有获得租金控制的对照组租户，他们留在原处的可能性高出20%。

So we find that they're 20% more likely to remain there relative to our control group renters who don't get access to rent control.

这看起来完全不出所料。

So that seems totally unsurprising.

对吧？

Yes?

是的。

Yes.

我更倾向于把这个结果看作是对我们数据质量和可靠性的验证，说明我们这里确实有值得研究的东西。

I I more see that result as a validation that our data is good and high quality, and we have something to work with here.

好的。

Okay.

此外，您提到租金管制降低了人们从旧金山搬离的情况。

Further, you write that rent control lowers displacement from San Francisco.

这具体是什么意思？

What does that mean exactly?

因此，我们不仅要看您在获得租金管制后是否留在原公寓，还要看您是否留在整个旧金山市。

So we can look at not just whether you remain in the actual apartment you lived in when you got access to rent control, but whether you remain in San Francisco as a whole.

我们发现，租金管制对您是否实际居住在旧金山产生了显著影响。

We find rent control has a dramatic impact on whether you actually live in San Francisco or not.

因此，它阻止了这些租户完全离开这座城市，我认为从租金管制倡导者的政策角度来看，这正是他们所谈论的防止租户被驱逐出城市的目標之一。

So it prevents those renters from leaving the city as a whole, which I think from a policy perspective of rent control advocates, that's one of the goals they talk about as preventing displacement from the city.

然后您写道，尤其是少数族裔的驱逐现象减少了。

And then you write that especially from minorities, that displacement is lowered.

对。

Right.

因此，当你观察那些在租金管制实施时 already 居住在城市中的第一批租客时，可以明显看出它对少数族裔的帮助更大。

So when you look at that first cohort of renters that already lived in the city at the time of rent control, it is definitely helping minorities more.

它尤其在防止他们被驱逐方面发挥了作用。

It's preventing displacement of them, especially.

此外，你提到，那些容易受到租金管制影响的房东，会将出租住房供应量减少15%，方式包括将房屋转为公寓出售、卖给自住业主，或重新开发建筑。

Furthermore, you write that landlords who are susceptible to rent control, quote, reduce rental housing supplies by 15%, either by converting to condos, selling to owner occupants, or redeveloping buildings.

所以现在情况开始变得稍微复杂一些。

So now it starts to get a little more complicated.

你能谈谈现在谁开始受益、谁开始受损吗？

Can you talk about who's now starting to win here and who's starting to lose here?

因此，当房东首次得知实施租金管制时，他们能迅速意识到自己的租金收入将低于原先预期。

So obviously, when the landlord is first notified about rent control, he or she can quickly deduce that his or her rental stream is gonna be lower than previously expected.

就像其他任何企业主一样，他们可能会考虑调整自己的经营策略。

And just like any other business owner, they might think about changing their business strategy.

因此，如果出租公寓不再那么有利可图，他们可能会决定，将公寓转为出售给自住业主的产权公寓或许更值得。

So if renting out their apartments is no longer very profitable, now they may decide, maybe it's worthwhile to convert to condos and sell off the apartments to owner occupants.

这将是一种弥补部分损失收入的方式。

And that would be a way to recover some of this lost income.

或者他们还可以选择拆除旧建筑，新建一些房产，然后将这些新房作为公寓出售或出租。

Or another thing they could do is say, knock down their old building and build some new construction, and either sell those as condos or rent them out as apartments.

这两种选择都能让他们避免支付租金管制带来的税负，帮助挽回部分损失，这对房东有利，但却会削弱租金管制的目标，因为现在可供租金管制的租赁住房将变得更少。

Both of those options would avoid them having to pay this tax of rent control, help recoup some of their losses, which is good for the landlords, but is gonna undermine the goals of rent control because now we're gonna have less rental housing out there available for rent control.

因此，你可以开始看到，租金管制可能在实现一个狭隘的短期目标——让特定群体的现有住房更便宜的同时，却牺牲了让城市整体更可负担的长期目标。

So you can start to see how rent control may be accomplishing a narrow short term goal, making existing housing more affordable for a select group of people at the expense of the long term goal of making a city more affordable generally.

当你实施租金管制时，突然被纳入租金管制的房东会损失大量收入。

When you pass rent control, the landlords of the property suddenly getting covered by rent control are losing so much money.

他们不再愿意以新的市场价格出租公寓，因此减少了市场上的租赁住房供应。

They no longer really wanna rent their apartments out at the prevailing new prices, so they decrease their supply of rental housing to the market.

如果供应减少，价格就会上涨。

And if there's less supply, that's gonna drive up prices.

好的。

Okay.

所以让我确认一下我理解得是否准确。

So let me just make sure I have it pretty straight.

你发现证据表明租金管制会加剧绅士化，而绅士化的一个组成部分就是低收入租户的驱逐。

You find evidence that rent control increases gentrification, one component of which is the displacement of low income tenants.

另一方面，你也发现证据表明，低收入人群，包括少数族裔，至少那些已经处于租金管制单元中的人，更有可能从租金管制中获益。

On the other hand, you also find evidence that low income people, including minorities, at least those who are in rent control units already, they're likely to disproportionately benefit from rent control.

所以，如果我是一个经济适用房倡导者，我可能会说，好吧。

So if I'm an affordable housing advocate, I might say, oh, fine.

我确信你这位斯坦福教授收入不错，或许还有住房补贴或优越的生活条件。

Fancy Stanford professor who I'm sure has some kind of great income and or housing subsidy and or situation.

我不在乎一些房东遭受损失。

I don't care that some landlords are suffering.

我不在乎这项政策产生了你不喜欢的某些后续影响。

I don't care that the policy is having some downstream effects that you don't like.

我需要确保低收入人群不会一夜之间面临50%的租金上涨。

I need to make sure that low income people aren't gonna get a rent increase of 50% overnight.

那你如何回应这个观点？

So how do you respond to that argument?

当你考虑这些最初的租户时，这就是租金管制对低收入租户——那些已经住在住房里的人——带来好处的最佳机会。

So when you think about those initial tenants, that's the best bet you're gonna get for the benefits of rent control to to low income tenants, the people that are already in the housing.

但即使我们发现这些租户更有可能留在他们的公寓里，当我们回头看十年、十五年之后，1994年的居民中仍有部分留在那里的比例已经下降到大约10%。

But even though we find that those tenants are much more likely to stay in their apartment, when we look, you know, ten, fifteen years later, the share of those nineteen ninety four residents that are still there is down to, you know, 10% or so.

所以，90%的最初租户已经不再住在那个最初的公寓里。

So 90% of them no longer live in that initial apartment.

而真正需要的是下一波想住在城市里的低收入租户。

And it's that next low income tenant that wants to live in the city.

这位低收入租户将很难找到一个负担得起的住房选择，因为现在可租的住房会更少。

That low income tenant is gonna have a very hard time finding an an affordable option because now there's gonna be less rental housing.

当这位低收入租户想要搬入时，他们将面临比没有租金管制时更高的价格。

The prices that that low income tenant are gonna face when they wanna initially move in are gonna be higher than they would have been absent rent control.

我很想知道，你觉得你在旧金山的发现对其他城市有多大的普遍适用性？

I'm curious how generalizable you think your findings from San Francisco are for other cities.

我猜测，租赁住房供应的实际减少或对租户的好处，会因城市而异。

I would suspect that the actual quantitative loss of rental supply or benefits to the tenant will depend a little bit city to city.

但我认为，房东很精明，会努力避免在投资上亏钱，这是一个非常普遍的结论。

But I think the qualitative takeaway that landlords are savvy and are gonna work hard to not lose money on their investments, I think is a very general point.

对于那些原本就对租金管制持理论反对意见的经济学家来说，戴蒙德的研究提供了实证证据，基本印证了同样的观点。

For economists who already felt confident in the theoretical arguments against rent control, research like Diamond's provides empirical evidence that essentially tells the same story.

是的。

Yes.

租金管制确实有一些受益者，但受损者更广泛，影响也更持久。

There are some winners in rent control, but the losing is more widespread and longer term.

但从相反的角度来看，实证证据又如何呢？

But how about empirical evidence from a reverse angle?

也就是说，不是当一个城市像旧金山那样引入或扩大租金管制时，而是当它取消租金管制时。

That is not when a city adds or expands rent control like San Francisco did, but when it gets rid of it.

因此，大卫·奥托及其合作者研究了1994年马萨诸塞州剑桥市取消租金管制的情况。

So there's other work by David Autor and coauthors that looks at the removal of rent control in Cambridge, Massachusetts in 1994.

到20世纪90年代初，剑桥是马萨诸塞州为数不多仍保留租金管制的地区之一。

By the early nineteen nineties, Cambridge was one of the few remaining rent control strongholds in Massachusetts.

房东们多年来一直试图废除它，但房东的数量远少于租客，因此任何试图修改地方法规的尝试都被投票否决了。

Landlords have been trying to get rid of it for years, but there are a lot fewer landlords than there are tenants, so any attempt to change a local law was voted down.

最终，反对租金管制的一方想出了一个成功的策略。

Finally, the rent control opponents had a winning idea.

将这个问题提交到全州公投，这样可能减少对那些租金低于市场价的城市居民的同情。

Put the issue up on a statewide referendum where there might be less empathy for all those city dwellers with below market rents.

公投举行时，剑桥市近60%的选民反对，但在全州范围内，该提案获得了通过。

When the referendum was held, nearly 60% of the voters in Cambridge were opposed, but statewide, it passed.

于是，剑桥开始取消租金管制。

And so Cambridge began to deregulate its rents.

几年后，一组麻省理工学院的经济学家研究了取消租金管制的影响。

Years later, a trio of MIT economists examined the effect of removing rent control.

好的。

Okay.

关于这个话题的经典论文，是由戴维·奥托、帕朗·A.

So the classic paper on this has been, written by David Autor, Parang A.

帕塔克以及克里斯·帕尔默撰写的。

Pathak, and Chris Palmer.

还有埃德·格莱泽也参与了相关研究。

Ed Glaeser again.

该研究指出，当住房不再受租金管制约束后，房东们对这些房产进行了投资升级。

It showed that when units were brought out of rent control, their owners invested in them.

所以他们提升了这些房产单元的品质

So they upped the quality of the units.

高端住房的供应量也随之增加了

There was more of a supply of higher end housing.

他们发现那些原本受租金管制的公寓经历了大规模的翻新改造

They find that the rent controlled apartments experience a lot of renovation.

房东们投入了大量资金翻修公寓，这也让这些公寓的居住吸引力大幅提升

The landlords renovate a lot, and that drives up the desirability of living in those apartments.

此外，他们发现这还对附近未受租金管制的公寓楼产生了外溢效应。

Also, they find that that creates spillovers onto the nearby apartment buildings that they themselves weren't rent controlled.

因此，邻近的公寓在租金管制取消后变得更有价值。

So neighboring apartments became more valued as a result of the end of rent control.

而最新的研究显示，犯罪率下降了，尤其是在剑桥取消租金管制后，街头犯罪显著减少。

And the most recent paper has shown that crime has gone down, particularly street crime has gone down right after the elimination of rent control in Cambridge.

因此，租金管制似乎对社区产生了负面影响。

So it looked like rent control had negative externalities on the neighborhood.

那么，经济学研究对我们关于租金管制的了解说了什么？

So what does economic research tell us about rent control?

至少有两个结论，如果我理解得没错的话，它们实际上是相互矛盾的。

There are at least two conclusions, which if I'm reading it right, sort of work against each other.

第一个结论是，租金管制并不能长期帮助很多人，部分原因是它限制了可负担住房的供应。

The first conclusion is that rent control doesn't help many people for very long, in part because it constrains the supply of affordable housing.

第二个结论是，仅仅取消租金管制本身，并不会直接导致更多可负担住房的出现。

The second conclusion is that just getting rid of rent control does not, in and of itself, lead to more affordable housing.

事实上，一个解除管制的住房市场很容易导致住房更加不实惠。

In fact, a deregulated housing market can easily lead to less affordable housing.

波士顿-剑桥地区是众多不仅面临可负担住房短缺、而且面临整体住房短缺的地区之一。

The Boston Cambridge area is one of many places experiencing a steep shortage in not just affordable housing, but housing overall.

所以，即使你认为租金管制是可负担住房问题的主要成因，取消它也未必就是解决方案。

So even if you accept that rent control is a big contributor to the affordable housing problem, getting rid of it isn't necessarily a solution.

你可以理解为什么政治家和政策制定者会感到困惑。

You can see why politicians and policymakers are confused.

在一些州，租金管制立法已经失败。

In some states, rent control legislation has failed.

例如，马萨诸塞州的倡导者已经放弃了推动全州范围的租金管制，但其他州却在加大力度。

Advocates in Massachusetts, for instance, have dropped their push for statewide rent control, but other states are doubling down.

加利福尼亚州现在将租金涨幅限制在5%加上通货膨胀率，最高涨幅为10%。

California now caps rent increases at 5% plus inflation with a maximum increase of 10%.

今年11月，加利福尼亚州选民将就33号提案进行投票，该提案将赋予地方当局更大的权力来控制租金。

And this November, California voters will decide on proposition 33, which would give local jurisdictions more power to control rents.

丽贝卡·戴蒙德在她的研究被用于这些租金管制辩论中有一些经验。

Rebecca Diamond has some experience with seeing her research used in these rent control debates.

看到我们的研究结果如何被政策制定者和媒体在争论的双方都加以利用，这很有趣，因为我们的某些结果确实显示租金管制看起来不错，而其他结果则让它显得糟糕。

It was interesting to see how our results were used by policymakers and the media on both sides of the of the fight because indeed some of our results are like, rent control look good, other ones make them look bad.

你必须通读整篇论文并全面考虑所有内容才能做出决定，但这篇论文对于这场讨论来说具有很强的政策相关性。

You gotta read the whole paper and take it all into account to make a decision, but it was a very policy relevant paper for that discussion.

我想知道你能否告诉我们一些关于租金管制的政治维度的信息。

I'm curious what you can tell us about the the political dimensions of of rent control.

我可能错了，但我认为租金管制通常得到民主党人的支持，而共和党人则普遍反对。

I may be wrong, but I I believe that rent control is generally supported by Democrats and generally opposed by Republicans.

我认为把所有民主党人都说成支持租金管制是一种简化。

I think it's a simplification to say all Democrats support rent control.

但我认为在短期内，你可以看到租金管制的好处。

But, I think in the short run, you can see the benefits of rent control.

比如，租户能立即受益。

Like, the tenants right away benefit.

更难看到的是那些需要很长时间才能显现的间接影响，你很难明确指出这些影响。

What's much harder to see are these indirect effects that take a long time, and it's harder to put your finger on that.

这些损失分散在各处，每一点都很少，走在街上或与选民交谈时很难察觉到吗？

The losses are spread everywhere a little bit and harder to to see walking down the street or talking to your constituents?

确实有一些穷人能从中受益，而且这种好处非常切实可见。

There certainly are some poor people who can benefit, and it's a very tangible benefit.

对吧？

Right?

这并不是某种需要你信任市场的复杂机制。

It's not some complicated thing which requires you to trust in the market.

它非常直接明了。

It's just sort of very clear.

如果你认为左派的许多人本来就不信任市场，那么跟他们说市场会带来一些负面影响，听起来就像资本主义的玄学；而他们现在能清楚看到的是，雷太太的租金因为这项法规不会上涨。

And if you think that people on the left, many of them, just don't trust markets to begin with, then, you know, saying there's gonna be some negative market effect to them, that sounds like capitalist hocus pocus, whereas what they can see right now is that Mrs.

雷太太的租金因为这项法规不会上涨。

Ray's rents won't go up because of their regulation.

经济学家往往相信他们的模型，认为这就是最终结论，相信我。

Economists tend to believe their models and say, you know, end of story and and believe me.

对吧？

Right?

这是维基·比恩。

That is Vicki Been.

但社区并不一定非要相信经济学家，因此经济学家需要更好地回应社区所面临的真正担忧。

But communities don't necessarily have to believe economists, and so economists need to do a better job of responding to the very real fears that communities have.

比恩曾担任纽约市住房保护与发展局的专员。

Been used to be commissioner of the New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development.

现在她是纽约大学的法学教授，并担任富尔曼房地产与城市政策中心的主任。

Now she's a law professor at New York University, and she directs the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy.

富尔曼中心启动了一项名为‘不是你祖母时代的租金管制’的项目，试图探讨：如果你从零开始，设计一个最有效的租金监管体系，它会是什么样子？

The Furman Center has embarked on a project that we call not your grandmother's rent control to try to figure out if you were starting from scratch and you were designing the most efficient rent regulation system, what would that look like?

广告后，我们来谈谈那会是什么样子？

Coming up after the break, what would that look like?

你需要进行全面的审视。

You really need to have a holistic look.

那商业物业的租金管制呢？比如纽约那些空置的店铺？

And what about rent regulation for commercial properties, like all those empty storefronts in New York?

首先，我是个愤怒的纽约人。

First and foremost, I'm a angry New Yorker.

正如我们一直听到的，经济学家普遍反对租金管制。

As we've been hearing, economists are generally opposed to rent control.

它会奖励一些人，但方式相当武断。

It rewards some people, but fairly arbitrarily.

它惩罚了许多其他人，而且通常对改善整体住房获取帮助不大。

It punishes many others and generally doesn't do much to improve overall access to housing.

尽管如此，大多数人并不像经济学家那样思考，甚至不相信他们，这就是为什么许多政界人士和公众认为租金管制是个好主意。

That said, most people don't think like economists or even believe them, which is why many politicians and members of the public think rent control is a great idea.

嗯，我支持住宅租金管制和租金监管。

Well, I'm in favor of residential rent control and rent regulations.

那是大卫·艾森巴赫。

That is David Eisenbach.

他在哥伦比亚大学教授历史。

He teaches history at Columbia University.

早在2019年，他曾参加纽约市公共倡导者特别选举，竞选全市性公职。

And back in 2019, he ran for citywide office during a New York special election for public advocate.

纽约市大约有340万个住宅单元，其中近100万个受到租金管制。

There are, in New York City, about 3,400,000 apartment units, nearly 1,000,000 of which are rent stabilized.

纽约的租赁市场本身就非常昂贵，就像旧金山等其他实施租金管制的城市一样。

And New York's rental market is incredibly expensive as it is in many other cities with regulated rents like San Francisco.

经济学家认为，整体房价高昂是租金管制的直接后果。

Economists argue that overall high prices are a direct consequence of rent regulation.

艾森巴赫怎么看？

What does Eisenbach think?

我不同意。

I disagree.

我的意思是，旧金山和纽约的房地产价格高昂有很多原因。

I mean, there's the there are a lot of reasons why real estate in San Francisco and real estate in New York are high.

把这归咎于租金管制绝对不对。

Blaming it on rent stabilization is definitely not it.

取消租金控制或租金稳定政策的后果，将是大量人口立即被驱逐，明白吗？

The consequences of getting rid of either rent control and or rent stabilization would be the immediate displacement, okay, of a a big portion of the population.

在现阶段，这只会是残忍的行为。

And that would just be cruel at this point.

我不明白，哪怕是从纯粹的经济角度出发，任何人怎么还能为这种做法辩护，从人性角度更是说不通。

I don't know how anybody could justify, even somebody looking at it purely in economic terms, how anybody could justify that in just in human terms.

你真要把高房租归咎于租金控制？

You're gonna blame the high rents on rent control?

得了吧。

Come on.

好吧。

Okay.

所以艾森巴赫不相信关于租金控制的经济研究。

So Eisenbach does not believe the economic research on rent control.

他相信什么呢？

What does he believe in?

首先，我是一个愤怒的纽约人，走在纽约的街道上，看到一家又一家空置的店铺，感觉我的城市正在衰亡。

Well, first and foremost, I'm a angry New Yorker who walks around the streets in New York and, sees empty storefront after empty storefront and just feels like my city is dying.

纽约的一些商业租金和住宅租金一样飙升。

Some commercial rents in New York have spiked along with residential rents.

然而，在曼哈顿的一些地区，多达20%的零售空间要么空置，要么即将空置。

Still, in some parts of Manhattan, as much as 20% of retail space is either vacant or soon to be vacant.

我了解到有一项名为《小企业就业生存法案》的提案。

And I found out that there is this bill called the Small Business Job Survival Act.

它最初是在20世纪80年代提出的。

It was initially submitted back in the nineteen eighties.

我想，为什么我不竞选公职，推动这项法案呢？

And and I figured, why don't I run for office pushing this bill?

于是我以这个政纲竞选公共倡导者。

And so I ran for public advocate on the platform.

我们会通过这项法案。

We're gonna pass this bill.

它将拯救纽约市的小企业。

It's gonna save small business in New York City.

我们应该说明，艾森巴赫并没有赢得选举。

We should say that Eisenbach did not win the election.

他在17名候选人中排名第十三，但他因谈论那些空置的店铺而获得了相当多的关注，这些空置店铺让许多人感到不安。

He came in thirteenth in a field of 17, but he did get a fair amount of attention for talking about all those empty storefronts, which have upset a lot of people.

《小企业就业生存法案》主要有两项条款。

There are two major provisions of the Small Business Job Survival Act.

第一，它规定任何在纽约市拥有商业租赁合同的租户，房东都必须提供为期10年的续租要约。

One, it guarantees a 10 lease renewal offer from the landlord to the tenant for any tenant with a commercial lease in New York City.

第二，如果房东和租户无法达成协议，他们将进入具有法律约束力的仲裁程序。

Number two, if the landlord and tenant cannot come to an agreement, they go to legally binding arbitration.

而该仲裁员将确定一个公平的市场租金，并在下一个十年租约续期时适用。

And that arbitrator then will pick a fair market rent, which will then be charged in the next ten year lease renewal.

这项提案的反对者称之为商业租金管制。

Opponents of this proposal call it commercial rent control.

但这项法案，即《小企业就业生存法案》，绝对不是租金管制。

But this bill, the Small Business Job Survival Act, is absolutely not rent control.

它并没有对租金上限做出限制，而这才是租金管制的定义。

It doesn't put a limit on how much rent can be charged, which is the very definition of rent control.

这是一种具有法律约束力的仲裁。

It's legally binding arbitration.

完全不同。

Much different.

还有其他城市在房地产领域有类似的小企业就业保护措施，并且运行良好吗？

Are there other cities that have this kind of small business jobs protection on the real estate front that works well?

这将是独一无二的。

It's going to be unique.

艾森巴赫输掉了选举，但市议会仍在继续辩论旨在控制商业租金的立法。

Eisenbach lost his election, but the city council has continued to debate legislation that would rein in commercial rents.

我很想知道，我们之前讨论过的经济学家——斯坦福大学的丽贝卡·戴蒙德和哈佛大学的爱德华·格莱泽——对商业租金管制有什么看法。

I was interested to know what the economists we've been speaking with, Rebecca Diamond of Stanford and Ed Glaeser of Harvard, what they thought about commercial rent regulation.

我也非常感兴趣，但我对这个话题几乎一无所知。

So I'm also very interested in that, and I also know almost nothing about it.

我从未见过任何关于这方面的研究。

I've never seen any work on it.

你可以很容易地讲出这样一个故事：某种形式的租金管制威胁，会在短期内加剧空置问题。

You can easily tell a story where the threat of some form of rent control, makes a vacancy problem worse in the short run.

例如，我现在不想把店面租给低端租户，即使他们能填补空位，因为租金管制法会让我被锁定，从此和这个租户绑定。

So for example, I don't want to rent right now to a lower end tenant who could fill my space, because I'll be locked in by the rent control law, and I've got that tenant forever.

所以我只能耐心等待一个信誉良好的大公司租户，因为这道法律的阴影一直悬在我头上。

So that means I'm gonna really hold out for a blue chip tenant, because I have this thread of this law over my shoulder.

那么，我认为空置的店铺是个问题吗？

So do I think vacant empty storefronts are problems?

当然。

Sure.

我的意思是，我们可以从城市主义者的角度来讨论这个问题，认为这些空置店面很不美观。

I mean, we can talk about it from a perspective of merely as an urbanist, where we think it's unattractive to have these things.

但作为经济学家，我也对此感到不安，对吧？

But I'm also disturbed by it as an economist, right?

因为你知道，有人拥有可出租的空间。

Because you know, someone's got space to sell.

也有人想要租用这个空间。

There are people who wanna buy that space.

为什么这笔交易没有发生呢？

Why isn't the transaction happening?

对吧？

Right?

这说明市场有些失灵了。

It's sort of a the the market is going awry.

而市场为何出现偏差的答案，并不显而易见。

And the answer to that, of why the market is going awry, is not immediately obvious.

当然，关于纽约为何有如此多的店面空置，有许多理论解释。

There are, of course, plenty of theories as to why so many storefronts in New York are vacant.

以下是曾担任住房官员、并在纽约大学研究房地产市场的维基·比恩。

Here again is Vicki Been, the former housing official who studies the real estate market at NYU.

我认为，关于商业租金管制如何运作以及它可能如何干扰有效市场，存在很多疑问。

I think there are a lot of questions about how commercial rent regulation would work and how it might interfere with an efficient market.

我现在担心的是，我们似乎正处在零售业整体转型的动荡期，这主要是因为互联网零售的兴起。

One concern that I would have right now is we seem to be in the middle of a upset of a transition in retail in general, right, because of the availability of Internet retail.

许多事情都处于变动之中。

A lot is in flux.

但有两点证据反对这种观点：其一是，许多这些店面过去经营的是服务类业务，而我认为美甲店还没被亚马逊取代。

But there are two points of evidence against that, one of which is that many of these storefronts formerly held services, and I don't think a nail salon has been made obsolete by Amazon just yet.

其次，根据纽约房地产委员会最新报告，至少在这些区域，挂牌租金仍然高得离谱。

And secondly, the rents, the asking rents, at least according to the most recent Real Estate Board of New York report, in many of these areas are still sky high.

并不是说在这些每平方英尺租金高达304,100美元的区域完全没有需求。

It's not like there's no demand for for areas where you're charging $304,100 dollars per square foot to rent these these areas.

从长远来看，无论是房东还是租户，经济上的动力都是让这些单元被租出去，让租金重新流向房东。

In the long term, all of the economic push for both the landlords and the tenants is to get those units occupied and get the the rent payments again flowing to the landlord.

无论是小型还是大型房东，通常都被排除在关于房地产市场的公共讨论之外。

Landlords, whether small or large, are often left out of public discussions about property markets.

如果他们没有被排除在外，通常也被描绘成反派角色。

And if they're not left out, they're usually drawn as villains.

维基·比恩在思考她称之为‘不是你祖母那一套的租金管制’的项目时，正试图改变这种状况。

Vicki Been, in thinking about the project that she calls not your grandmother's rent control, She's trying to change that.

我认为你真正需要关注的是，如何确保房东获得合理的回报？

I think the thing that you really, need to focus on is how can I ensure that the landlord is getting a reasonable return?

是的。

Right?

否则，人们会把钱投到别处，建筑也就无从谈起了。

Because otherwise, people will take their money and put it elsewhere, and you won't get building.