人工智能转向新型贷款

来自《金融时报》的早上好。

Good morning from the Financial Times.

今天是2月27日，星期五，这是您的《金融时报》新闻简报。

Today is Friday, February 27, and this is your FT News briefing.

奈飞已退出与华纳兄弟探索的争夺战，一些科技公司无法直接购买半导体，因此转向租赁方式。

Netflix is walking away from the battle for Warner Bros Discovery, and some tech companies can't buy semiconductors outright, so they're turning to rentals.

此外，投资者正在寻找一种规避人工智能波动的变通方法。

Plus, investors are using a workaround to dodge AI volatility.

因此，为

So planning for

未来做规划极其困难。

the future is incredibly hard.

所以投资者正在寻找任何形式的保障。

So investors are looking for insurance of whatever kind.

我是马克·菲利皮诺，以下是您开启一天所需的新闻。

I'm Marc Filippino, and here's the news you need to start your day.

看来在收购华纳兄弟探索公司的竞购战中，我们有了胜者。

It looks like we have a winner in the bidding war to take over Warner Bros Discovery.

奈飞周四晚间表示，不会提高其收购该公司的报价。

Netflix said late on Thursday, it is not going to sweeten its offer to buy the company.

这一退出决定为派拉蒙在争夺这家传奇好莱坞电影公司的控制权中取得胜利铺平了道路。

That decision to bow out paves the way for Paramount to triumph in its battle to take control of the storied Hollywood studio.

就在当天早些时候，华纳兄弟宣布派拉蒙每股31美元的报价优于奈飞的提案。

It comes after Warner Bros earlier in the day declared Paramount's $31 per share offer to be, quote, superior to Netflix's proposal.

这对派拉蒙来说是一次惊人的逆转。

It's a stunning turnaround for Paramount.

去年，派拉蒙首次就收购华纳兄弟提出了意向。

It first approached Warner Bros last year about a takeover.

这引发了一场持续数月、激烈残酷的竞购战。

That kicked off a months long and brutal bidding war for the company.

派拉蒙最新的报价将涵盖应付给奈飞的28亿美元终止费。

Paramount's latest offer would cover the 2,800,000,000 termination fee owed to Netflix.

而且，哦，是的，这笔交易涵盖整个企业，包括CNN、HBO和其他有线网络。

And, oh, yeah, the deal is for the entire business, which includes CNN, HBO, and other cable networks.

这一消息公布后，奈飞股价在盘后交易中大幅上涨。

Netflix shares soared in after hours trade on the news.

人工智能军备竞赛催生了一种新型贷款方式。

The AI arms race has sparked a new kind of lending.

科技公司选择租赁用于训练大型语言模型的芯片，而不是直接购买。

Tech companies are leasing the chips that train their large language models instead of purchasing them outright.

它们有点像汽车贷款，车辆本身作为抵押品。

They kinda work like a car loan where the vehicle is used as collateral.

这帮助它们筹集到维持竞争力所需的巨额资金，投资者也对此表示欢迎。

This helps them find the huge sums needed to remain competitive, and investors like it too.

接下来为我们详细解读的是我们的美国信贷记者米歇尔·陈。

Here to explain more is Michelle Chan, our US credit correspondent.

你好，米歇尔。

Hi, Michelle.

嘿。

Hey.

你好。

Hi.

谢谢你能邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

很高兴你来。

Good to have you.

这种贷款是怎么开始的？

So how did this type of lending start?

它是从哪里来的？

Where did it come from?

是的。

Yeah.

这实际上始于人工智能军备竞赛，以及在人工智能发展中保持竞争力所需的巨额资金。

It really begins because of the AI arms race and how much money is required to stay competitive in the AI development.

芯片非常昂贵，而且每天都在变得更贵。

Chips are extremely expensive, and they're getting more expensive day by day.

因此，企业通常不希望它们出现在资产负债表上，而是希望采用一种更轻资产的运营模式。

So corporate usually don't want them to be on their balance sheet and they want to find a more asset light model to be able to operate.

他们不是购买芯片，而是租赁芯片，像有些人租车一样，支付稳定的月租金。

Instead of buying chips, they are leasing them and they are paying like a stable monthly rent on the chips just like how some people are leasing their cars.

所以他们会把这些芯片归还。

So they give these chips back.

是这样吗？

Is that right?

租赁期结束时？

When the rental time is up?

不一定。

Not necessarily.

他们有时只是把这些芯片在二手市场上转售，这也带来了一个很大的疑问：几年后这些芯片还会值多少钱。

They sometimes just resell these chips in the second hand market, and this is also a big question mark of how much these chips are going to be worth a few years later.

我们稍后可以深入探讨这一点。

And we can get into that in a little bit.

在那之前，这种交易对贷款方和借款方有哪些优势？你能给我们一些最近的例子吗？

Before we do, what are some of the advantages of this kind of deal for lenders and borrowers, and can you give us some recent examples?

当然。

Sure.

对于贷款方来说，这非常简单。

For lenders, it's really simple.

你获得的收益高于直接向这些公司放贷。

You get higher yields than lending to the companies themselves.

这些贷款由科技公司支付的租金作为担保。

So these are loans that are secured by the rent paid by the tech companies.

因此，你通常能获得比向XAI等公司放贷更高的回报，因为这里多了一层风险。

So you usually get higher returns than lending to XAI, for example, because there is an additional layer of risk involved.

因此，私募股权公司和私募信贷基金正纷纷进入这个领域。

So private equity firms and private credit funds are really getting into the game.

阿波罗是这一领域的重要参与者，上个月，他们刚刚为xAI完成了35亿美元的融资方案。

Apollo is a big player and last month, they just closed a 3,500,000,000.0 financing package for xAI.

基本上，他们向基础设施基金提供了贷款，该基金设立了一个实体来购买芯片，然后将这些芯片租赁给埃隆·马斯克的xAI。

Basically, they lent money to an infrastructure fund and the infrastructure fund set up a vehicle to buy the chips, and the chips are being leased to Elon Musk's x AI.

这样一来，埃隆·马斯克就不必自己购买所有芯片，仍能通过租赁方式享受使用最新、最先进芯片的好处。

And this way, Elon Musk don't have to buy all the chips himself, and he can still enjoy the benefit of using the most updated and the most advanced chips through leasing.

当然。

Sure.

让我问你一个问题。

So let me ask you this.

如果我是一家科技公司，并且违约了，会发生什么？

If I'm a tech company and I default, what happens then?

没错。

Right.

这是个非常好的问题，因为这正是贷款方所担忧的风险所在。

This is a really good question because this is something that lenders are betting against.

他们非常有信心，这些科技公司未来有能力支付租金，而这些贷款由芯片的租金支付作为担保。

They are very comfortable that these tech companies would be able to pay rent down the road, and these loans are secured by the rent payment under the chips.

因此，如果一家科技公司违约，你基本上就得想办法卖掉这些芯片。

So if a tech company defaults, basically, you'll have to find ways to sell the chips.

问题是，没人知道几年后这些芯片会值多少钱。

And the problem is no one knows how much these chips are going to be worth a few years down the road.

这不像汽车，汽车还有二手价格的历史数据可以参考。

It's not like a car where there are probably history of how much a secondhand card is worth.

AI芯片太新了。

AI chips is so new.

没人知道它们在二手市场会值多少钱，也不知道将来是否真有人想要它们。

No one knows how much they're going to be worth in the secondhand market and whether actually someone would want them down the road.

所以，这目前是市场上的一个巨大问号。

So this is a big question mark in the market right now.

所以听起来，这对投资者来说可能非常有风险。

So it sounds like this could be really risky for investors.

他们本质上是在赌科技公司会继续支付租金，一切都会好起来。

They are essentially betting that tech companies would continue to pay rent and everything will be alright.

但如果它们不支付，情况可能会非常危险。

But if they don't, it could be very risky.

这是福克斯的米歇尔·陈在纽约的报道。

That's the Feet's Michelle Chan in New York.

谢谢，米歇尔。

Thanks, Michelle.

谢谢。

Thank you.

美国科技股昨天再次出现抛售。

US tech stocks saw another sell off yesterday.

纳斯达克指数最多下跌了1.9%。

The Nasdaq fell as much as 1.9%.

尽管英伟达周三发布了强劲的财报。

That's despite a blockbuster earnings report from NVIDIA on Wednesday.

由于这家芯片制造商对收入前景缺乏明确性，加剧了投资者对科技巨头在AI基础设施上支出的担忧。

A lack of clarity on the chipmaker's revenue outlook added to investor concerns about big tech spending on AI infrastructure.

好的。

Okay.

因此，科技行业的这种持续波动显然让华尔街感到担忧。

So this ongoing volatility in the tech sector is clearly worrying Wall Street.

而我们刚刚从米歇尔和投资者对英伟达的反应中听到，部分担忧在于AI的进步。

And part of the concern, as we just heard from Michelle and investor reaction to NVIDIA, is about advancements in AI.

投资者正在质疑这是否会使得一些软件过时，但华尔街已经做好了对冲准备。

Investors are questioning whether that'll make some software obsolete, but Wall Street's got a hedge.

接下来为我们解释的是Feet的乔治·斯特尔。

Here to explain is the Feet's George Steer.

你好，乔治。

Hi, George.

你好。

Hello.

那么，投资者正在考虑哪些策略来应对我们正在目睹的软件股抛售？

So what kind of strategies are investors looking at to protect themselves from the software sell off that we're seeing?

他们之所以不得不寻找一些小众的交易方式，是因为

Well, the the reason they're having to look for niche kinds of trades in the

过去几周软件板块持续抛售的不可预测性太强了。

first place is because the rolling sell off in the software space that we've had over the past few weeks has been so unpredictable.

市场的不同部分因子栈博客、推特谣言等各种通常投资者不会太在意的消息而急剧下跌。

Different parts of the market have sold off very aggressively off the back of sub stack blogs and Twitter rumors and all sorts of things that ordinarily investors might not pay as much attention to.

因此，为了保护自己免受市场利用个股极度波动的影响，而标普500指数本身却徘徊不前，这是因为美国软件股抛售，而市场其他部分却在上涨。

So in order to kind of protect themselves from the markets kind of trying to exploit how individual stocks have become incredibly volatile, while the S and P 500 itself is kind of treading water because Us software has sold off other parts of the market have climbed.

所以交易员们现在正试图利用这种差异，采取各种奇特的策略。

So traders are trying to exploit that kind of disparity right now, and they're doing all sorts of funky things.

其中一种策略被称为分散交易，

And one of those things is called dispersion trades,

也就是，你知道，

which, you know,

你刚刚描述的。

you just described.

没错。

Exactly.

再给我举个具体的例子，说明这种操作是怎么进行的。

Give me a little bit more of an example of how one of these things would work.

你知道的，从纸面上看是什么样子？

You know, what does it look like on paper?

它涉及卖出像标普500或纳斯达克100这样的指数期权，或者买入这些指数中的不同股票的期权。

It involves selling options on an index like the S and P five hundred or the Nasdaq one hundred or buying options on different stocks in those indices.

所以你可能会赌英伟达在未来一周会有很大波动。

So you might bet that Nvidia is gonna move around a lot in the next week.

但正如我之前所说，由于指数本身并没有像其成分股那样剧烈上下波动。

But as I said before, because the index itself isn't jumping up and down like crazy or anywhere near as much as companies within it.

这种分散交易让你能够利用或套利这个差距。

This dispersion trade allows you to kind of exploit or arbitrage that that gap.

这是一种巧妙的小技巧，过去几周越来越受欢迎。

It's a clever little technique that has become increasingly popular over the past few weeks.

是的。

Yeah.

有多受欢迎？

How popular?

我们在哪里看到这种需求？

Where are we seeing this kind of appetite?

通常，采用这类策略的是对冲基金，比如分散交易。

So typically, would be hedge funds who employ these kinds of strategies, dispersion trades.

但过去几天里，我和我的同事蕾切尔交谈过的一些人提到，财富管理者和更传统的资产管理人也在关注。

But people that my colleague, Rachel, and I have spoken with over the past few days, we spoke with someone at SocGen, for example, who said wealth managers and more traditional asset managers.

他们现在也开始利用这种分散交易，来应对自年初以来我们所见到的不可预测的软件股抛售。

They're also now looking to use these dispersion trades to kind of protect themselves against the the unpredictable software sell offs we've seen basically since the start of the year.

有趣的是，与其直接大规模抛售或做空这些股票，他们却转向了这种分散交易，尽管这些股票确实很脆弱。

It's kind of interesting that they're turning to these dispersion trades instead of just selling these stocks wholesale or shorting them if they are this vulnerable.

他们为什么选择使用分散交易呢？

How come they're turning to dispersion trades instead?

我肯定他们也在这么做。

I'm sure they're doing that too.

他们会做空市场的某些部分。

They'll be shorting certain parts of the market.

投资者不太可能完全抛售大型软件公司的股票，因为目前只是存在一种风险，即这些最大的公司未来某天或许可能受到人工智能的影响。

It's unlikely that investors have totally sold out of big software companies because at the moment, there's just a risk that the biggest players might one day perhaps potentially, hypothetically be impacted by AI.

我猜测投资者认为现在就完全退出这些股票还为时过早。

I imagine that investors think it'd be premature to completely move out of those stocks.

所以我推测，其中确实包含了一些做空操作，而分散交易或其变体则是在这些更常规策略的基础上叠加使用的。

So I imagine there was some shorting involved and that the dispersion trade or variations of it are being used on top of those more vanilla types of strategies.

对。

Right.

所以这是一种补充性策略。

So it's a it's a supplementary strategy

而不是

rather than

一种替代。

a replacement.

这只是

It's just

另一种对冲波动性的方法。

another another way to hedge against volatility.

但它真的能保护他们吗？

But will it actually protect them?

嗯，我认为是的，这是当前市场环境下很好的一种获利方式。

Well, I I imagine, yes, it's a good way to exploit the market environment at the moment.

这很有道理。

It makes sense.

这就是为什么这么多人在这么做。

That's why so many people are doing it.

我认为风险在于，未来几周内可能会突然出现某个其他催化剂，导致整个市场同步抛售，在这种情况下，VIX指数——衡量标普500指数隐含波动率的指标——会急剧飙升，从而

The risk, I guess, is if some other catalyst in the next few weeks comes out of the blue that causes the entire market to sell off kind of in unison, in which case, such a scenario, the VIX index, measures the S and P five hundred's implied volatility, that would jump massively, and that would

彻底破坏分散交易。

ruin the dispersion trade, basically.

《金融时报》美国市场记者乔治·斯特尔。

The Feet's US markets correspondent, George Steer.

谢谢，乔治。

Thanks, George.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

今年一月，传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特将伯克希尔·哈撒韦的管理权交给了更为低调的副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔。

Back in January, legendary investor Warren Buffett handed the reins of Berkshire Hathaway to his more low profile vice chair, Greg Abel.

本周六，阿贝尔将首次撰写致股东的信件。

On Saturday, it's Abel's turn to pen his first letter to shareholders.

这封信历来备受关注。

The note has historically been very closely watched.

那么，在公司新任首席执行官的带领下，我们该关注什么？

So what are we looking for under the company's new CEO?

维多利亚·克雷格是《金融时报新闻简报》周一版的主持人。

Victoria Craig is the host of the Monday edition of the FTN News briefing.

她现在加入我们，来讨论一下。

She joins me now to discuss.

你好，维多利亚。

Hi, Victoria.

嗨，马克。

Hey, Marc.

那么，我们明天期待看到什么？

So what are we expecting to see tomorrow?

这是个好问题，因为艾贝尔并没有太多公开表达过他对伯克希尔的愿景。

Well, it's a good question because Abel hasn't really been very vocal about his vision for Berkshire.

因此，这封致股东的信将是我们首次直接听到他本人的声音。

So this shareholder letter is gonna be really our first opportunity to hear directly from him.

正如你所说，这一传统不仅受到华尔街投资者的关注，也受到全国各地企业高管和散户投资者的关注。

As you said, this is a tradition that isn't just tracked by Wall Street investors, it's executives and also mom and pop investors across the country too.

我们都会关注阿贝尔计划如何配置伯克希尔庞大的投资组合。

We're all going to be watching for how Abel plans to deploy Berkshire's vast portfolio.

其中一个问题是，阿贝尔是否真正参与了伯克希尔去年年底对 Alphabet 超过40亿美元的投资。

And one question has been whether Abel was actually involved in Berkshire's more than $4,000,000,000 investment in Alphabet late last year.

我认为这里重要的是要记住，巴菲特因其非常务实的投资策略而深受喜爱，而大多数情况下，这意味着避开像炫目的科技投资这类项目。

I think it's important to remember here that Buffett was beloved for his very common sense investment strategies, and for the most part, that meant steering clear of things like flashy tech investments.

因此，这个问题的答案实际上可能表明，公司在对快速增长的科技公司进行重大投资方面是否存在一些转变。

So the answer to this question really could signal whether there's a bit of a shift at the company when it comes to big bets of fast growing tech companies.

用‘深受喜爱’来形容人们对巴菲特的感情可能都算轻描淡写了。

Beloved might be an understatement with how people feel about Buffett.

我的意思是，他们对他简直着了迷。

I mean, they were fanatical about him.

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Absolutely.

人们非常爱戴他。

People loved him.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们收到的不只是这封信，还有其他一些重要的更新。

So it's not just the letter we're getting, but a couple of other important updates too.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

这封信将与公司的年度报告和第四季度财报一同发布。

So this letter is gonna be released alongside the company's annual report and its fourth quarter earnings.

因此，这将让我们了解伯克希尔在巴菲特今年卸任前最后一个季度的表现如何。

So that's gonna give us a sense of how Berkshire performed under the last quarter of Buffett's leadership before he stepped aside this year.

还有一点很重要，那就是巴菲特仍然担任伯克希尔的董事长，并且他表示计划继续每天来办公室上班。

It's important to remember too that Buffett has stayed on as chairman of Berkshire, and he said that he plans to continue showing up at the office every day.

他仍然持有伯克希尔A类股票的相当大一部分，因此拥有很大的影响力。

He also still holds a significant portion of Berkshire's Class A shares, so that gives him a lot of sway.

所以我认为，尽管他不再参与公司的日常决策，但他仍然是伯克希尔活跃的存在。

So I think, although he's not making day to day decisions at the company, he is still an active presence at Berkshire.

我们的姐妹播客《Behind the Money》做了一期精彩的节目，探讨了伯克希尔哈撒韦背后的狂热崇拜，以及格雷格·阿贝尔接任前的继任规划。

Our sister podcast, Behind the Money, did a great episode on the fanaticism behind Berkshire Hathaway and the succession planning leading up to Greg Abel's appointment.

我们会在节目说明中提供该节目的链接。

We'll have a link to that in the show notes.

维多利亚·克雷格将在下周一早晨第一时间出现在这个播客频道中。

Victoria Craig will be in your ears first thing Monday morning right here on this podcast feed.

非常感谢你，维多利亚。

Thanks so much, Victoria.

总是很愉快。

Always a pleasure.

谢谢，马克。

Thanks, Marc.

点击我们节目笔记中的链接，您可以免费阅读这些故事的更多内容。

You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes.

这是您的每日《金融时报》新闻简报。

This has been your daily FT News briefing.

请下周回来收听最新的商业新闻。

Check back next week for the latest business news.

本周的《金融时报》新闻简报由朱莉娅·韦伯斯特、索娜·哈森、菲奥娜·西蒙和维多利亚·克雷格制作。

The Feet news briefing was produced this week by Julia Webster, Sonja Hutson, Fiona Symon, and Victoria Craig.

我是您的主持人兼编辑马克·菲利皮诺。

I'm your host and editor Marc Filippino.

我们的节目由亚历克斯·希金斯和凯莉·加里负责混音。

Our show is mixed by Alex Higgins and Kelly Garry.

本周我们得到了米凯拉·廷德拉、彼得·巴伯、迈克尔·莱洛、大卫·德席尔瓦和加文·卡勒曼的帮助。

We had help this week from Michela Tindera, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David D'Silva, and Gavin Kallmann.

我们的执行制片人是托菲·福赫茨。

Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz.

《金融时报》全球音频负责人是切丽尔·布姆利，我们的主题曲由Metaphor Music创作。

The Feet's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley, and our theme song is by Metaphor Music.