FTS Betslip Mindset Podcast Episode 3 – Goals & Money

欢迎来到FTS投注单播客的思维系列。

Welcome to the FTS Betslip Podcast Mindset Series.

FTS投注单播客这一系列节目的目标，是为你积累一套实用的思维建议，方便你随时随地收听，助力你的投注和交易之路。

The aim of these episodes of the FTS Betslip Podcast is to build up a library of sound mindset advice that you can access anywhere and use to help you on your betting and trading journey.

如果你是第一次接触这个思维系列，建议你回头补听一下之前错过的节目。

If you are new to this mindset series of podcasts, then please make sure you go back and catch up on any previous episodes that you may have missed.

每期节目都配有对应的图文博客文章。

Each cast will also have a written blog version to go alongside it.

你可以在我们的网站 ftsincome.co.uk 上找到。

That is on our website ftsincome.co.uk.

部分节目还会在FTS Income频道发布配套的YouTube视频。

And some of the episodes will also have an accompanying YouTube video on the FTS Income channel.

记得订阅这个频道，别错过任何有帮助的视频内容。

So please make sure you subscribe to that so that you don't miss any of the informative videos.

祝你顺利，希望陪你走过一段盈利的投注与交易旅程。

Good luck and I hope to take you on a profitable journey with your betting and trading activities.

如果喜欢这些播客，麻烦在你常用的平台留下一个评价。

One thing, if you do enjoy these podcasts, please consider leaving a review on your podcast listening platform.

大家好，欢迎来到心态系列的第三期，这期我们聊聊目标和与目标相关的资金问题，看看该怎么入手，怎么制定计划。

Hello and welcome to episode three of our mindset series and this one I want to talk about goals and money around those goals, looking at do we get into this and having a plan.

大多数刚进入这个领域的人，根本毫无准备。

Most people who go into this game are completely and utterly unprepared.

赌博，尤其是在英国，很大程度上还是一种消遣活动。

Gambling, particularly in The UK, very much a recreational activity.

很多人只是把它当玩儿，但确实有一部分人想从这种消遣心态转变过来，认真把它当成事业，想真正做好，还想靠它赚钱——可他们还是用玩儿的心态在做。

So I think people have played at it, but obviously there's a core of people who want to take it from that recreational sort of approach to this is what I want to do and I'd actually like become quite good at it and I'd like to earn some money at it, but they still maintain that recreational approach.

所以我们得好好想想，该怎么转变，先从最简单的一点开始：设定目标。

So we need to look at how we do that, how do we go about, and one area just to start simply is having goals.

无论做什么事，目标都是成功最基本的前提。

It is a fundamental area to success in pretty much anything that we want to do.

在我准备成为成功的体育博彩交易员时，我花了很多时间去设想未来：我想过什么样的生活，想达到什么状态。

When I was preparing to become a successful sports betting trader, I looked at a long way ahead where I wanted to be, what I wanted my life to look like.

当然，资金也很重要，我需要赚多少才能维持下去，但真正让我走上正轨的，是提前规划好目标和每一步的行动，这种以过程为导向的思维方式，才让我最终取得了成功。

The finances obviously plays a part, what I need to make to be able to do it, but it was just planning out goals and steps along the way that got me into a process orientated approach, which enabled me then to make a success of it.

设定目标时，第一件事就是要现实，别光说‘我想成为成功的交易员’，这比‘我想赢两百万英镑’好一点，但还是不够具体。

So when we're setting goals, the first thing, obviously, they've got to be realistic, they've got to become realistic, I want to become a successful trader, better, it's better than, I wanna win £2,000,000.

‘我想成为成功的交易员’到底意味着什么？不同人对‘成功’的理解完全不同，得弄清楚自己到底想要什么。

What does I want to become a successful trader, better, what does that actually mean, and what is involved in being a success for different individuals will have different interpretations.

接下来你要去研究，怎么才能实现它？你具体要做什么？如果你觉得这事儿三个月、六个月、一年就能搞定，那你想得太简单了——这是一门需要持续学习、不断打磨的本事。

You need to then research what's behind that, how do you make that happen, what are you gonna do to make it happen, and with all these things, if you think it's gonna take one month, six months, twelve months, I'm afraid you're miles out, It's one of these sort of disciplines that is continual learning, continual working on it.

我觉得，至少得花三到五年，才能真正精通，站稳脚跟。

I'd say it's three to five years minimum to become really proficient at it and get yourself going.

就像读大学一样，我一直这么看——把交易当成一所‘投注交易大学’，用这种态度去对待。

Just like university degrees, how I've always sort of looked it, sort of going to to, if you like, a betting trading university using it like that approach.

前提是，你从今天开始，就认真对待，按正确的方式去做。

And that's if you start today and you look to do it properly.

如果目标只是‘我想赚一大笔钱’，却没有实质内容支撑，最后肯定撑不住。

Having goals like, I just wanna win a load of money because there's no substance behind them, it all tends to fall apart.

但一旦你明确了这一点，比如说我们的目标是成为一名成功的交易者，同时还要围绕这个设定生活目标，比如多陪陪孩子，改善和配偶的关系。

But once you've got that, so let's, for example, say our goal is I want to become a successful trader better, and we're gonna have life goals around that, I wanna spend more time with my children, wanna I have a better relationship with my spouse.

当然，也会有一些财务方面的目标。

I, you know, of course, there'll be some financial goals.

我希望每年能去度假两次，费用就靠交易或者投注来解决，不管哪种方式都行。

I'd like to go on holiday twice a year, paid for through trading or betting, whatever it may be.

把这些目标一一建立起来。

You build those goals up.

你要不断回顾它们，这就是你要做的事。

You're reviewing them all the time, and that's what you do.

如果我们来看这个目标——成为一名成功的交易者，那你到底怎么定义‘成功’呢？

If we look at that goal, I want to become a successful trader better, what are you defining as successful?

这个定义对你来说一定是独一无二的。

It will be completely unique to you.

接下来你需要评估自己目前具备哪些技能、有哪些经验，打算专注哪个领域，每天能抽出多少时间，资金状况如何——这一点特别关键，还有，你有哪些短板？

You then need to look at what skills do you have now, what experience do you have, what sport are you gonna focus on, what time do you have available, really important, what funds do you have available, again really important, What weaknesses do you have?

你得诚实地面对自己的弱点，看看哪些地方出了问题，然后有针对性地去改进。

You've really got to be honest with what your weaknesses are, where things have gone wrong in different areas, and look to build those up.

我曾经有个月份打高尔夫打得特别好，那时候你总是爱练自己擅长的部分——因为打得顺，就一直重复那些好球。但这样一来，短板反而永远赶不上。你必须专门去练那些弱项，这一点在交易上也一样。

Know, it's I was a great month when I played golf in, you tend to practice the bits that you do well, so you, because you're hitting good shots, you tend to practice the bits you do well, but then your weaknesses never catch up, you've got to practice your weaknesses and work on those as well, and this game is no different.

如果你的弱点是记账混乱、Excel用不好，或者老下一些莫名其妙的注，那就得专门去改。你不去解决的每一个小问题，都会拖你的后腿。

If your weaknesses, things like record keeping, Excel, not having, or having silly bets, you've got to work on those weaknesses because every time, everything part of that that you don't work on is gonna hold you back.

实现这个目标的过程中，可能会遇到哪些障碍？

What threats are there to you achieving this goal?

比如，如果你总在聊天群里跟风，或者完全依赖某个荐股人，万一他突然消失了，你该怎么办？

So obviously, a couple of simple ones would be if you're a member of a chat group or a rely on a tipster and he disappears, what does that mean for you?

如果你只用bet365下注，结果账户被封了，那又会怎样？

If you're betting only with bet365 and they close your account, what does that mean for you?

这些都算是潜在的风险。就拿FTS这个平台来说，过去几年我们一直在努力做一件事：即使我不在，用户也能继续正常操作，而不是非得靠我一个人撑着。

So all those sort of things are threats, certainly with a view to FTS, we've tried to make over the last couple of years, the site so that if I'm not about, people can continue what they're doing rather than being solely reliant on me.

我觉得这一点特别关键，你也应该认真考虑一下。

And I think that's really important and something that you should look at.

这会对你的家庭造成什么影响？

And how will it impact your family?

如果你有年幼的孩子，周末还得去盯足球、赛马或者网球这些比赛，这会怎么影响你的家庭生活？

You know, if you've got young kids at a weekend and you need to trade football or racing or tennis or whatever it may be, how will that impact your family life?

所以在设定目标之前，这些因素都得考虑进去——怎么实现目标，需要调整什么，需要提前规划什么，所有这些都得融入到你的计划里。

So all those things all go into the pot really before we start of our goals, how do we make it happen, what do we need to change, what do we need to plan out for, and they've got to fit in to to be a plan.

然后你可以根据这些目标和这些问题的答案，制定出一个计划，而真正难的，是坚持执行，不偏离计划。

And then you can draw out a plan from these goals, from answering these questions, you draw a plan out, and then obviously the hard bit is you've got to stick to it and not deviate from it.

我跟很多合作的人会做同一件事：连续一百天坚持同一个流程，每天不管有没有比赛，都记录交易、检查所有事项——就算当天没足球赛，也照样走完整个流程，确认一遍，今天没机会，那就按流程来。

And one of the areas that I do with a lot of people that I work with is doing the same thing for a hundred days, following a process, collecting your trades for the day, regardless, you know, if there's days that there's no football, you still go through that process, check everything, right, there's nothing today, you just follow that process.

我和其他全职做这个的人常说，这份工作其实挺枯燥的。

A lot of what I do and other people who do this full time will tell you is very boring.

很多内容真的非常无聊。

A lot of it is really boring.

所以这就引出一个问题：你为什么还要做这个？

You know, and that comes down then why are you doing it?

我不是为了刺激才做这个的。

I don't do it for excitement.

我对自己交易有明确的目标、清晰的计划，这些都是我想要实现的。

I've got clear goals, clear objectives, clear plans for my trading that I want to do.

其中一些显然是财务方面的目标。

Some of them are obviously financial.

还有一些是成就层面的，比如我给自己设定的心理目标：学习交易不同的市场，探索新的数据分析方法等等。我一直在给自己设目标，比如从手写记录转向用Excel，这对我来说就是个大跨越，诸如此类的事情。

Other ones are levels of achievement, things that I I sort of mentally set myself to achieve, learning to trade a different market, learning other ways to go about how I analyze my data and things like that, so I'm setting myself goals all the time, you know, moving into Excel was a big thing for me from pen and paper over the years, so all those sort of things.

所以当你有了这些目标之后，接下来该做什么呢？

So once you've got that, it's then what do you do?

每天早上一开机，你第一件事是做什么？

So first thing in the morning, what do you do when you turn your computer on?

你有没有制定好一个可以执行的计划，能连续一百天重复执行，定期复盘表现，找出需要改进的地方，然后不断循环这个过程？

Do you then sit down, have you built this plan that you can execute and you can just repeat it for one hundred days, review your performance, things you need to improve, in effect doing the process again, and then we go again.

你会严格执行这个计划吗？

Do you execute that plan?

你现在能不能明确地说：这就是我要做的，我要坐下来，坚持一百天，我已经经历过这些了；如果还没做到，那就从今天开始。

Are you in a position now to say, this is what I'm gonna do, I'm gonna sit down, I'm gonna do it for one hundred days, I've been through all that, if not, start today.

如果你被推特、电报、孩子、食物，或者任何其他事情分散了注意力，这些都会大大降低你成功的可能性。

If you are distracted by Twitter, Telegram, kids, food, whatever it may be, all of that is gonna diminish your chance of success.

你需要为自己建立一套做事的体系，如果没有这套体系，我可以肯定地告诉你，你只是在赌博，迟早会全线崩溃。

You need to build a structure for what you do, and without a structure, I can assure you that you're betting trading, eventually the whole thing will cave in.

因为一旦你建立了这套体系，你就会变得注重过程，而注重过程正是成功的关键之一。

Because when we build that structure, we become process orientated, and being process orientated is one of the keys to success.

这最终会带你走向成功。

That will lead to success.

凭一时兴起随意下注，偶尔才执行一下自己的流程，却因为去酒吧玩了几天就抛在脑后，或者跟着聊天室里的建议跟单——

Randomly selecting bets on a whim, only doing what your process a few forgetting it for a couple of days because you were off down the pub or whatever it may be, following bets in a chat room.

过去十五年里，我加入过数百个聊天室，经常有人跟我说：你来看看这个人，看看那个人。

It's sort of one of the things I've really I've joined over the last fifteen years hundreds of chat rooms where people have sort of said to me, I'll get in here, have a look at this guy, have a look at that.

我觉得这简直荒谬透顶，如果你不是全天候盯着，那根本就是胡闹。

And I find it absolutely mad because if you're not monitoring it twenty four seven, it's it's it's nonsense.

因为你如果坐在电影院里看场电影，出来发现那人发了四注全中，你却错过了这四场赢的；等你睡觉时，他又半夜发了两注，又赢了；第二天他一早发三注，你跟着下注，结果全输了。

Because if you wanna sit in the cinema and watch a movie, and then you come out and see that guy's posted four bets and they've all won, and you've missed those four winners, and then you go to bed and he's posted a couple overnight and they win, but he gets up next post three, and you put those on because you're about, and then they lose.

这种做法根本毫无规律可言，再厉害的人也不可能做到每次下注都赢。

There's no consistency to that at all, and no one's good enough at all, no matter what people tell you.

没人能一直稳赢，不管别人怎么说。

No one's good enough just to keep having winners every time they post.

于是你就陷入了这种循环。

So you end up in this cycle.

我知道有些人用过付费服务，他们曾问我：你觉得这个怎么样？

I know people have sort of had paid services where they've sort of said to me, what do you think of this?

我觉得这完全说不通——如果你完全依赖别人发的单子，这正是我们一直对聊天室保持谨慎的原因：除非每个人都能赶上每一条建议，否则根本没法靠这个经营你的投注生涯。

And I've got it makes no sense to me because you if you're relying solely, it's one of the reasons why we've sort of held off with chat room things, it's because unless everybody can get on every single bet, it's not a way to run your betting career.

你或许会觉得参与聊天室很有趣，有说有笑，气氛热烈，但归根结底，这取决于你的目标是什么。

Whilst you might enjoy the fun of it and the banter and the excitement of it, again, that comes down to what are your goals?

如果你只是想凑个热闹、玩一玩，那没问题；但如果你真想认真做好，我不认为这种方式能带你走向成功。

If you wanna be part of something and play around with it, fine, but if you wanna do it properly, I don't think that they are the way for success.

归根结底，成功的路子是你得为自己打造一套能长期使用的系统，而不是依赖别人。

Ultimately, way to success is for you to build something for you that you can use and take forward, which isn't dependent on other people.

要想赚钱，就得设定现实的目标，搞清楚自己到底想达成什么、期待什么，目标要专业，期望要合理，这才是最有效的做法。

So to be profitable, we need to set realistic goals, understand the objectives and expectations to achieve them, professional goals, clear objectives, modest expectations, that is what will work best.

能赚钱的赌客都明白，根本不存在百分百确定的事，我们之前聊过连输的最长记录，想追求100%稳赢的投注，纯粹是在浪费精力。

Profitable bettors understand that there's no certainty, we've talked about longest losing runs, and trying to achieve sort of bets with 100% certainty is a complete and utter waste of energy.

这根本做不到。

It cannot be done.

你得找到一种适合自己、能长期用下去的投注方式，这才是真正关键的目标。

You've got to find a method of betting that is compatible to you, and that is one of the real key goals.

你平时喜欢赌什么赔率？

What odds do you like to be playing?

这些都跟你的目标和整体策略息息相关。

Know, all this comes into your goals and your approach.

你打算怎么下手？

How are you gonna go about it?

你平时喜欢投注什么赔率？

What odds do you wanna play at?

哪种投注方式更适合你？

What form is compatible to you?

投注、交易、固定赔率，比如直接用FTS Ultimate这种工具。

Betting, trading, fixed odds, you know, just putting them on on, like, FTS Ultimate.

FTS Ultimate和FTS Advanced是两种完全不同的产品。

FTS Ultimate, FTS Advanced, two very different products.

用FTS Ultimate的话，你周五早上起来，九点半前就能把所有事情搞定。

FTS Ultimate, you can, in effect, get up Friday morning, have everything done by 09:30.

整个周末都不用再操心了。

You don't need to look again at the weekend.

FTS Advanced则是每天都要更新。

FTS Advanced sheets out every single day of the week.

你得花时间研究，从这些表格里选一种方法，到时候就得花更多时间坐在电脑前，但如果你真这么做了，而且做得对，这笔时间投入也值得。

Need to work on that, you need to focus on it, what method out of these sheets am I gonna use, and that's where you'll be sitting a lot more time at the computer, but hopefully you get paid for that time if that's the road you go down, if you do it properly.

所以，找到既能盈利又适合你的平衡点，这才是我们真正追求的，每个人的情况都不一样。你看聊天室里，甚至在我们FTS平台上，大家表面上都在做同样的事。

So getting that balance between what is profitable forward, what suits you, what we're striving for, it will be different for everyone, again, think, even in chat rooms, even on our FTS itself, people all trying to do the same.

但每个人的情况都不一样。

It will be different for everyone.

几年前我曾有个很理想化的想法，觉得大家都该走同一条路，但后来我真正明白了，这套方法必须是你自己独有的，需要时间去打磨。

I had a great sort of utopian idea, everybody just do the same years ago, and I've really come to appreciate that it's got to be unique to you, excuse me, over a period of time.

我们的目标应该是建立一套理性、稳定、能长期坚持的交易方式。如果把这种稳定性当作成功的标准，而不是追求‘对错’，你会轻松很多。很多人交易时特别在意自己是不是对的——我之前说过，那场对话里提到过两个半目标——但如果你把重点放在坚持流程上，而不是非要赢钱或证明自己正确，你的情绪波动就会少很多，表现也会提升，利润自然会随之而来。

Our objective should be to operate sensible, consistent trading approach that we can sustain, and if we make that as a measure of success as opposed to being right, people love to being right when they're trading, I said there'd be over two and a half goals there, but if we make having a process consistent approach above being right or winning money, that you'll go through less emotional up and downs, your performance will improve, the money then comes out the end of it.

一旦你调整目标，转向更实际、可实现的方向，建立稳定的交易体系，你的情绪波动就会大幅减少，水平也会稳步提升。

Once you taper your objectives to achieve a different achievable objective, develop a consistent trading approach, you'll start to go through a lot less emotional turmoil and you will get better.

当然，谈到目标、规划和我们想做的事，不可能不提钱，因为大多数人入行都是为了赚钱。

And of course, we can't talk about goals and planning and what we're trying to do without talking about money because most people get into this for money.

但我们得说清楚，赚钱不应该是你的首要目标。

What what we've gotta say is that shouldn't be the first goal.

我想赢一百英镑，我想赚大钱，我花了两百镑买这个服务，必须把本钱赚回来。

I wanna win £100, I wanna make grand, I've paid £200 for this service, I need to win that back.

因为如果你抱着这种想法，那干脆就别做了。

Because if you're thinking like that, you probably shouldn't be doing it at all.

在这个以过程为导向、目标明确的交易方式中，利润自然会到来，百分之百如此，我坚信这一点，也确信它行得通。它能帮你更好地应对起伏，就像我说的，一旦你真正融入这个过程。

The money comes out at the end of this process orientated, goal driven, objective based approach, 100%, that is what I believe, that is how it will work, and it enables you, as I say, to cope with the ups and downswings a lot better when you get yourself into that process.

但显然我们得谈钱，因为除了纪律和对交易本质的误解之外，资金管理是投注交易中最关键的一环。

But obviously we need to talk about money because one of the key elements of betting trading, other than the discipline and sort of lack of understanding of what's involved, is money management.

你知道的，所有跟赌博相关的网站都会强调这一点。

And, you know, every website to do with gambling has it.

和往常一样，你只该用亏了也不心疼的钱去下注。

As always, you should only have a bet with money that you can afford to lose.

我们从不希望任何人承受财务压力。管理资金时，你得清楚自己爆仓的风险，但也得接受一个事实：没有风险，你根本不可能有进展。

We don't lose putting anybody under any financial pressure, and then managing your money, you need to understand your risk of going bust, but also embrace the fact that without risk, you genuinely aren't gonna go anywhere.

一旦涉及真金白银，人的思维就会受影响，有时甚至变得极度非理性。

When real money is involved, it does affect people's thinking, sometimes to the extent of being insanely irrational.

但如果你从一开始就搭建好目标体系和交易流程，你在交易生涯中成功的几率就会大得多。再加上合理管理资金，不再把每一场比赛或赛马的结果当成生死攸关的事，那你离成功就已经走得很远了。

But once you're set up from the start, you've got a goals processed or in to the approach, you have a much higher chance of succeeding in your trading life, and then if you can get your money management alongside that, take you away from sort of living on every football or horse result as if your life depended on it, you will be a long, long way to being successful.

归根结底，还是心态决定资金管理的效果，这才是真正影响我们的关键。

And it will ultimately come down to the mentality of money management, That will be the thing that affects us.

举个例子，你有一千英镑，说好每点下注十镑，可一旦本金降到五百镑，你开始慌了，干脆放弃，那这五百镑就等于白扔了。你不仅少了本金，还失去了翻盘的机会，各种负面想法会接踵而至，脑子里全是乱七八糟的念头。

So when we talk about that, if you've got a thousand pounds and you say, I'm gonna have a 100 bank, that's £10 a point, but if it gets down to £500 and you're panicking and you give up and you move on, you've written that £500 off, you've now got style again, you've got £500 less, you haven't given yourself chance, and all these things will come on top and there'll be thought process in your head.

当然，谁都经历过，今天又亏了二十点，状态真差，诸如此类的事谁没碰上过。

Of course, we all have them, oh, I've had a bad day today, I've lost another 20 points, whatever it may be.

这种事迟早都会发生。

These things will happen.

所以从一开始就得把基础打牢。

That's why we've gotta get set up from the start.

我觉得所有外部压力，归根结底都来自资金问题，而这些问题的根源，其实是你一开始就没安排好。

But I do think it's all all the sort of external pressures and things come from the financial side, but it all stems from not being set up properly in the first place.

说到资金管理上的错误，最常见的是根本没计划，这种事我天天都能看到。

So when we look at mistakes people make in money management, they range from absolutely no plan at all, and I see this day in, day out.

有些人就是这样，看到推特上有个聊天群，随手就进去下了三十镑，完全没考虑过后果。

People are just, again, you know, oh, there's a chat room on Twitter, I'll join that, I'll have £30 on there.

赢了几把，突然就亏了三百镑，然后又去找另一个推特聊天室。

They win a few, then all of a sudden they're £300 down, and then they find another chat room on Twitter.

根本没有任何计划，一味追输，下注还用马丁格尔或者斐波那契，这完全是误解了赌博的本质——输了一次，下一次赢的概率并不会更高。但人们就是死撑，最长的连输期该来的时候自然会来，你靠调整下注大小是控制不了的。

There's just no plan at all to obviously chasing losses, stakes like Martina or Fibonacci, and that's just understanding gambling that there's no higher probability that a win will follow a loss, but people persist, longest losing streak will occur when it occurs, you can't control it with your staking.

当你彻底变成一个只靠希望赌运气的人时，结果就会在你最需要的时候出现，把你从深渊里拉出来。

It's when you sort of become a pure hopeful gambler, then the results are gonna fall at the right time to get you out of the hole.

我常这么说：在赌博里，亏钱的从来不是资金，而是人。

One of the ways I sort of describe it often is rarely does a bank fail in gambling, people do.

假如说有10%的人能在博彩中赢钱，我觉得这个比例比1%高，但远没到99%那么夸张，我估计大概在90%左右。

And if, let's say, there's 10% of people win at punting, I think it is higher than the 99%, but let's say it's 10%, I think it's higher than the 1%, rather than the other 99 losers, I think it's probably ninetyten.

我敢说，那10%赢钱的人，早就做好了资金全部亏光的心理准备。

I will hazard that that 10% are prepared to see a bank go all the way.

大多数人根本撑不到那一步，尤其是在体育博彩上，早就放弃了。

Most people pack up well before that stage, particularly in sports punting.

赌场赌博有点不一样，有人坐在赌桌前，被那种氛围吸引，玩轮盘赌，输得精光，还总想着马丁格尔策略——连出了八次红色，下次肯定该黑色了。其实根本不是这么回事，纯属胡扯。

Casino gambling is slightly different, people will sit at casino gambling, put roulette tables, get sucked in by the ambiance of it and go broke, and again, wait to see those martingale strategies, we've had eight reds, it must be black, of course it mustn't, it's nonsense.

但事情还有另一面。

And then there's the flip side to that.

如果你一直赢呢？

What if you've been successful?

你加入了一个系统，表现特别好，一开始下注十英镑，连续几个月大获成功，觉得这简直是自切片面包以来最棒的发明，于是马上把注码提得太高太快，结果不可避免的连输期来了。

So you've joined something, done really well, you've started off at 10 pound steaks, you've had a couple of really good months, and you think this is the best thing since sliced bread, all of a sudden you put those stakes up too high and too quickly, and the inevitable bad run comes along.

从那以后，亏损远远超过了之前赚到的收益。

And from then, the losses far outweigh the gains that you've made.

所以你从一开始就得把这一切都规划好：你的目标、你的计划，怎么来对待自己的赌博，不是别人的。

So you've got to have all this built in at the start with your objectives, your goals, your plans to how you're gonna approach your gambling, your gambling, not anybody else's.

这个播客里你最该记住的一点就是：你自己的行动。

The one thing you've gotta get in from this podcast, it is what you do.

地球上其他人怎么做根本不重要，重要的是你怎么做。

It does not matter what any other human being on this planet does, it is what you do.

所以资金管理，必须用你负担得起的钱。

So bank management, it must be a bank money you can afford.

我跟人聊的时候总说，稳扎稳打才是最靠谱的，所以我宁愿用小注码搭配大资金，这样不管遇到什么波动都能扛得住。

Saying I use a lot on on talking to people is bomb proof, so we wanna have, you know, I'd rather stake smaller with a bigger bank so we can absorb anything throwing at us.

学会坚持留在游戏中，这一点极其重要，但往往被严重低估。

Learning that ability to stay in the game is so important and underestimated.

你必须制定一套系统、合理的方法来逐步提高注码。

You've got to have a plan to increase those stakes in a methodical, logical manner.

有了稳定的下注策略，好时候资金自然增长，而这套体系也足以让你扛过低谷期。

Then you can use your consistent approach to betting and you'll start to see that grow in the good periods and it's built to sustain the downturns.

我们之后会做很多期关于下注策略和变注法的节目，比如凯利公式，但先简单说说我是怎么管理固定赔率资金的——这问题我被问过很多次。

We'll be doing many podcasts on staking and variable staking, Kelly, but I'm just gonna quickly run through how I approach fixed odds banks, something I've asked many times.

靠着这套方法，我曾把五百英镑或一千英镑的资金，做到五位数，甚至六位数的规模。

It's seen me turn banks of £500 or a thousand pound into high 5 figures, in some case, 6 figures.

我用这套方法已经十二年了，从来没怎么改过。

I've operated this now for twelve years, never really changed.

我总是从小额起步，比如五百、一千五，具体操作上我会用我们的FTS终极表格，当然，我习惯搭配三个互补的系统，这部分等我们聊投资组合搭建时再详细说。

I've always started with relatively small amounts, 500,000, 1,500, and how I do it, I I use our FTS Ultimate Sheets, obviously, but I like to have three complementing systems, and I'll cover that in a separate area episode when we talk about putting portfolios together.

我的意思是，我不喜欢那些会输出大量重复结果的系统。

But by that, I mean I don't like I don't like systems that are gonna throw out all the same bits.

所以我用的这些系统，在价格和风险上是互补的，但不会推荐同样的比赛。

So I have they're complementary in price and and risk, but they're not gonna throw out the same matches.

我会通过回测和前瞻测试，找出历史上最大的回撤幅度。

I work out the biggest draw down that there's been through back and forward testing.

关于前瞻测试，我们后面再详细聊。

Again, we'll talk about forward testing.

我会根据系统的历史赔率和胜率，估算可能出现的最长连输期。如果回到网站上的那个表格，我会看5000场这个数据，因为我打算长期坚持做5000场以上的投注。所以我关心的是，在这个平均水准下，5000场里最坏能遇到多大的连输，然后把这个亏损点数乘以三到四倍。

I look at the estimated losing run for the price and strike rate my results are showing, and I look at that, if we go back to the table that's on the website, I look at the 5,000 number because my intention is to be in it for 5,000 plus bets, so I'm looking at what's the worst losing run I could encounter at this sort of average at 5,000, and then whatever that drawdown has been in points, I will multiply it by three or four.

如果某个系统的预计连输期更长，我会参考我们的连输表格，几乎肯定会乘以四，并且往上取整。

If I'm embedding a system with a longer estimated losing run, going to our losing run table, then I will almost certainly do it at four and round it up.

当然，我们没法百分百保证这个数字一定够用，但对我而言，它一直很管用。

Of course, we cannot definitively say that will be enough, but it's worked out for me.

我对自己的系统研究很有信心，就算实际回撤达到两倍，我也没问题——因为我已经按三到四倍的最大回撤做了准备。而且我每年都会定期回顾几次表现，随时调整。

I'm confident in my system research that even if I hit twice the drawdown, you know, I've still got, I've planned for three, four times the max drawdown, and I would have revisited that, you know, obviously you're reviewing performance every couple of times a year.

我重新检查了这个阶段，想弄清楚原因，这也是我经常提到的：我们怎么找出问题出在哪里。

I've revisited that stage to find out why, and again, that's something I talk about, how we identify why something is failing.

举个例子，假设我有1000英镑可用，我有个系统，最大回撤是23个点，投注赔率大概在2到2.5之间。

So for me, let's say, just in put it back in numbers, if I have a thousand pound available, I have a system with a drawdown of and the most it's lost is 23 points, betting prices around two to 2.5.

所以我预计可能会遇到连续输10到14场的情况。

So I know I could expect a losing run of sort of ten, twelve, 14 bets.

也就是说，我的最大回撤是23个点。

So my drawdown's 23.

我会把这个数字乘以三。

I'm I would multiply that by three.

我的投注赔率在2到2.5之间，所以预期胜率不会太低。

I'm betting two to 2.5, so I do expect a fairly high win rate.

23乘以3，就是把最大回撤乘以三，得到69。

23 times three, so I'm taking my biggest drawdown times it by three, twenty three times three sixty nine.

我会往上取整到最近的25，所以最终定为75。

I'm gonna round that up to the nearest 25, so I've rounded up to 75.

所以我现在有75个点在运作。

So I've got 75 points in play.

1000除以75，就是13.33英镑。

1,000 divided by 75 is £13.33.

我向来喜欢取整数。

So for round I'm I'm always a rounder.

我从不用13块33这种数字。

I would never use thirteen thirty three.

我会往上或往下取整。

I'd round up or down.

最接近的整数就是13英镑。

So nearest pound is 13 pound.

所以这个系统，如果我搭建的话，其实是三个小子系统组成的。

So for that system, if I built it, I've taken three little subsystems.

它们的赔率都差不多在2到2.5之间。

They're all around two point to 2.5.

我回溯和前瞻测试时，最大回撤在2到2.5之间。

The biggest drawdown I've got in testing backwards and forwards for, you know, got to test stuff forward is two to 2.5.

把这个数乘以369，然后向上取整到75。

Multiply that by three sixty nine, round it up to 75.

我那一千英镑的本金除以75，差不多就是13英镑。

My thousand pound bank divided by 75 is 13 in round numbers.

所以我的初始投注额就是13英镑。

So my starting stakes would be £13.

接下来我得有个增长计划。

And then I need a plan for growth.

对吧？

Right?

我该怎么让这笔钱增长呢？

How am I gonna grow this?

对我来说，用固定赔率的方式很简单。

And for me, it's simple with fixed odd stuff.

一旦你有了这个投资组合，如果你只用一个系统，也可以这么做。

Once I've got that portfolio, you can do this with a single system if you've got single system.

当我的资金增长50%时，我就把投注金额也提高50%。

As my bank increases 50%, I increase my stakes 50%.

我一开始的资金是1000英镑。

So I started with a thousand pound.

资金增长50%后，就是1500英镑。

My bank increase 50 would be £1,500.

1000加50%，就是加500，总共1500。

A thousand plus 50%, a thousand plus 500, 1,500.

一旦达到这个数额，我的投注额就会提高到19.5英镑。

Once I reach that number, my stake would go up to 50%.

我最初的投注额是13英镑。

So my thousand pound stake was £13.

50%的增长就是6.5英镑。

50% is that £6.50.

所以当我的资金达到1500英镑时，我的投注额就会涨到19.5英镑。

So my stake would go up to £19.50 once my bank got to £1,500.

不过我会往上凑整，直接定为20英镑一注。

Again, I would round up, I would round that up to £20 stakes.

你当然也可以往下凑，降到19英镑。

You could return it, round it down to 19.

别忘了，我之前把13英镑往下凑了，所以手里一直有点余地。

Remember, I rounded the £13 downwards, so I had a little bit in hand anyway.

现在我又开始押20英镑了。

So now I'm betting £20 again.

我的资金还是1500英镑，没变。

My bank is £1,500, exactly the same.

接下来我目标是22.5英镑，也就是1500加五成。

I'm aiming then for $22.50, £1,500 plus 50%.

然后我就再重复一遍这个过程。

Then I do the same process again.

我唯一不做的就是，这点你可以自己决定：当我有1500英镑时，我又开始下注20英镑，结果前几把全输了，资金又跌回了1500以下。

The only thing that I don't do, and you can make your own decision on this, is if I've got that £1,500, I'm now betting £20 again, and the first few bets lose, so I dropped back down below that.

你知道，我一开始只有一千英镑。

You know, I've now got I started started with a grand.

现在涨到了一千五。

I've got it up to 1,500.

我把注码提到了20英镑。

I've put my stakes up to £20.

最近碰上了一段连败。

I've now hit a little bad run.

因为总共输了五点，我的资金已经降到一千四了。

My bank's gone down to 1,400 because I've lost five points net overall.

我会把注码降下来吗？

Do I put my stakes down?

我从来不会。

I never do.

我不想在每次下注20英镑的时候全输光，然后才想着：哎，得把赌注降下来，因为现在老输。

I don't want to do all my losing at £20 and then go, I need to adjust my bank back down because I'm losing here.

我从不这么做。

I don't do that.

最近我看到一篇文章，有个人说他们就是这么做的，还推荐这种做法。

I saw an article just recently where somebody said that that's what they do, and they sort of advocated it.

我个人觉得，这可不是实现增长的正确方式。

I don't think that's the way to growth personally.

你不能总在高注码的时候输个精光，然后指望用小注码把钱赢回来。

I think you can't do all your losing at the top end and then try and win it back at smaller stakes.

那样只会让你花更长时间才能翻盘。

It's like just gonna take you longer.

要接受波动是常态，我们一开始就已经把所有准备工作都做足了，信心十足，能扛得住这段低谷。

Accept that there's variance, we've done all the setting up in the start, so we've got, we're pretty confident we're bond proof, so we can sustain that run.

我们已经赢到了1500英镑，所以对我来说，赌注就保持在20英镑，绝不往下调。

We've won money because we've got up to 1,500 pounds, so for me, I keep my stakes up at 20 pounds, I do not put it back.

2015年的时候，我在伯明翰的一个房间里，面对大约40个人，现场演示了这个方法——我把500英镑变成了37,500英镑，每一场投注都给他们看了。那是三年前的事，当时我在播客里说过，如果你觉得一年、半年就能做到，那简直是疯了，真正需要三到五年。

Now, I showed a live example of this to somebody in 2015, well, to a group of people in a room in Birmingham, about 40 people to be fair, where I turned £500 into £37,500, I showed them every bet, and that was three years, so I turned £500 into £37,500 three years ago, back at the start of the podcast when I said, if you think you can do it in one year, six months, you're mad, three to five years.

但这三年里，有整整十三个月，我的资金账户纹丝不动。

But in that three years, there was thirteen months where the bank didn't move.

我从500英镑一路涨到一万零一百二十英镑左右，然后就卡在那里，整整十三个月没动。

So I shot up from £500, shot up to like $10.12 grand.

之后才又从一万零一百二十英镑冲到了三万七千五百英镑。

It then just stayed $10.12 grand for thirteen months, and then it shot up from $10.12 grand to 37,500.

那一年多时间里，我每场投注都照常下，账户却一直在上下波动，起起落落。

So there was over a year where the I put every bet on where the bank just bubbled up and down, bubbled up and down.

我坚信，当我们说那99%的人时，指的就是他们——看到进展这么慢，早就放弃走了。但你慢慢会发现，赢的周期和输的周期总会交替出现，根本不存在什么一成不变的节奏。按天、周、月来衡量完全没意义，真的毫无意义，这是我死磕的观点之一：有人总爱晒月度战绩，我也干过这事儿。我们之所以在意，是因为被社会训练成了时间导向的生物——工资按月发，假期按周安排，一切都按这个节奏来。但这些对长期投资来说，完全无关紧要。大多数人就是一看到这个月亏了，或者连着两个月不顺，立马就放弃了。

I am convinced when we talk about the 99%, that's where 99% of people would have packed up and walked away as the progress was slow not being made, but you'll tend to notice your winning cycles over time, losing cycles, nothing is ever uniform, days, weeks, months as measurements are absolutely pointless, you know, it is completely and utterly pointless, another sort of hill I'll die on, people posting monthly results, and I've done this, we like it because we're time orientated, you know, we get paid monthly, we do our holidays weekly, it's all how we're conditioned, you know, how we're sort of socialized again, it is completely and utterly irrelevant, but that's when most people are, I've lost this month, I'm giving up, it's had a bad couple of months, I've given up.

你得真正进入过程导向的思维，坚持做下去。

You've just got to get into this process orientated and keep doing it.

刚起步的时候，就坚持做同一件事一百天，把基础打扎实。

Do the same thing for a hundred days when you're setting yourself up, set yourself up properly.

明确的目标，周密的计划，合理的资金管理。

Proper goals, proper plans, proper money management.

接下来我们会深入聊下注策略、资金管理、系统搭建这些内容，但先从这个方法入手是个不错的选择，别一上来就用那种高风险的下注方案。

We're gonna go into things like staking, money management, building systems in a lot more detail, but that is a good way to start and not that staking plan.

肯定有人不这么做。

There'll be people who don't do that.

对我而言，这套方法非常有效。

For me, it's been highly successful.

它有清晰的增长路径。

It's got planned growth in it.

它有坚如磐石的起步资金，让我能坦然面对连败，有了这个基础，才能稳步向前。

It's got bomb proof starting banks so I can accept the losing runs, and from there, you can drive yourself forward.

好了，这期就到这里。

So that's the end of this episode.

去好好想想你的目标，问问自己到底想达成什么，哪些地方是你独有的优势，你需要做些什么，你的长处和短板是什么，擅长哪些运动，具体押注什么，怎么操作，这会怎样影响你的家庭——把这些都想清楚。如果你真打算玩固定赔率投注，我刚才给你的那些内容，就是关于起步资金和搭建系统的实用指南。

Go away, look at your goals, look at what you want to achieve, ask yourself the questions, what is unique to you, what is it that you need to do, what are your strengths, what are your weaknesses, what skills have you got, what sport you're gonna focus on, what are you actually gonna bet, how are you gonna do it, how will it impact your family, go and answer all that, and then if you're gonna get into fixed odds betting, I've given you a bit there for plan towards starting bank, how to go about setting it up.

去看看网站上最长连输记录的表格，这样你就能做好准备，顺利应对了。

Look at the longest losing run table on the website, and you can get yourself set up and through.

祝你好运，我很快会带来下一期内容。

Best of luck, and I'll be back with another episode soon.