FTS Betslip Mindset Series Episode 1

欢迎来到FTS投注单播客心态系列。

Welcome to the FTS Betslip Podcast Mindset Series.

FTS投注单播客这一系列节目的目标，是为你积累一套实用的心态建议，方便你随时随地收听，助力你的投注和交易之路。

The aim of these episodes of the FTS Betslip Podcast is to build up a library of sound mindset advice that you can access anywhere and use to help you on your betting and trading journey.

如果你是第一次接触这个心态系列，建议你回头补听一下之前错过的节目。

If you are new to this mindset series of podcasts, then please make sure you go back and catch up on any previous episodes that you may have missed.

每期播客都会配套一篇文字博客文章。

Each podcast will also have a written blog version to go alongside it.

你可以在我们的网站 ftsincome.co.uk 上找到。

That is on our website ftsincome.co.uk.

部分节目还会在FTS Income频道发布配套的YouTube视频。

And some of the episodes will also have an accompanying YouTube video on the FTS Income channel.

记得订阅这个频道，别错过任何有帮助的视频内容。

So please make sure you subscribe to that so that you don't miss any informative videos.

祝你顺利，希望陪你走过一段盈利的投注与交易旅程。

Good luck and I hope to take you on a profitable journey with your betting and trading activities.

如果喜欢这些播客，麻烦在你听的平台留下一个评价。

One thing, if you do enjoy these podcasts, please consider leaving a review on your podcast listening platform.

大家好，欢迎来到第一集，这一集我们聊聊期望值。每次看到新人进入这个领域，我都特别惊讶。

Hello and welcome to episode one, and episode one is all about expectation, and I think one of the things that amazes me when people come in to this game.

他们完全被钱驱动。

Obviously, they're so money driven.

满脑子想的都是：我能赚多少？

Everything is about how much money that can I get in?

我打算快速赚一大笔，这感觉太棒了。

I'm gonna make a load of money really quickly, and this is great.

他们幻想着靠下注就能买法拉利，可对赔率和真实期望值却一无所知，根本没准备好面对必然出现的波动和连败。

Look how much money I'm gonna bet my way to Ferrari, that they have no, the expectations are off the charts, they have no real clue about the odds involved, or the true expectation of how things play out, and this just sees them ill equipped mentally to deal with the variants that will come along and the sort of inevitable poor runs.

于是他们加入某个服务，刚开始赢了点钱，一遇到连输就立马觉得：这全是骗人的，直接放弃，钱就这么没了。

So they dive into a service, know, they might win a little bit and then it hits a losing run, they decide, oh, that's a load of rubbish, they give up, That money's lost now.

再也回不来了。

It's not coming back.

他们东拼西凑再弄点钱，又开始别的项目，结果就陷在了不断亏钱、原地打转的怪圈里。

They cobble together some more money, start something else, and you just end up on this hamster wheel of, you know, losing money and not going anywhere.

每次你选择放弃，其实都是在把之前亏掉的钱彻底认栽。

And every time you're giving up, you're you're just basically writing off that money that you've lost previously.

对我来说，问题核心在于规划不当，但更根本的是，人们对事情该怎样发展抱有不切实际的期待，再加上人类天生想掌控一切的欲望——我们都觉得自己能左右结果，可实际上根本控制不了。一旦发现无力掌控，人就会改变想法，把责任推给各种借口，然后转身去试别的。这种模式在人性中反复出现，尤其在涉及金钱时表现得最明显，这也直接引出了赌博和交易那套复杂的游戏规则。

And for me, it all comes down to, obviously, some bad planning, but the the initial expectancy of how things should play out, coupled with the human desire we have to be in control, we all like to think that we have control over things we have no control over whatsoever, we like to think that we can make things happen, and when that lack of control becomes apparent, we as humans change our thinking, we blame anything and everything, and then we just move on to something else, and this tendency repeatedly shows itself in human nature, no, never more so that particular money is involved, and that then leads into obviously the complex world of betting and trading.

我们总以为自己能掌控输赢的节奏，但在体育博彩或交易中，和轮盘赌不一样，我们根本没有确切的概率。比如轮盘赌有38个数字，你押一个数字，就只有一个数字对你有利，其余37个都对你不利，这个37比1的概率是清清楚楚的。

We believe we can control or have expectancy on how the wins and losses should play out, and one of the big issues in sports betting or trading, as opposed to say a situation like a roulette wheel, is we have no true odds, so on a 38 number roulette wheel, we know if we bet one number, we have one number running for us, and we have 37 numbers against us, and we can determine truance from that 37 to one.

你是不是真懂这些概率在现实中意味着什么，其实不重要，至少眼下，我们至少能明确地说：我只有一个数字，而对手有37个。

Whether we have an understanding of what that looks like in real life is irrelevant, we for the minute, but we've we've got we can put a number on it and go, there's one number for me.

37个数字都跟我作对。

There's 37 numbers against me.

但赌场只肯赔你35比1。如果你玩赌场游戏，一定要搞清楚赔率。

Then the casino is only gonna pay me out 35 to one, if you are gonna play casino games, really important that you understand the payouts.

从长远看，我赢一个数字的概率是37比1，但赌场只给我35比1的回报。

So we know long term, I've got a thirty seven one chance of winning my number coming in, but the casino are only gonna give me 35 to one.

所以我们其实是在输。

So we are we're on a loser.

不管别人怎么跟你说轮盘赌能赢，确实有人声称自己赢过，比如发现轮盘有偏差之类的，但现代轮盘赌的数学原理和设计机制决定了，你根本赢不了。

No matter what people tell you about roulette, and there are people who tell you can they win, and there are people who have won over time when they've been able to look at wheels that aren't balanced correctly and things, but the actual maths and the way roulette wheels are built these days, you can't win.

体育博彩、足球博彩的赔率，不管是什么类型，本质上都只是主观判断。

The difference with sports betting odds and football betting odds, football trading odds, whatever it may be, is they are always only perceived odds.

这根本不重要。

It doesn't matter.

任何人说不一样，那都是从根本上错了。

Anybody tells you any different is wrong, know, fundamentally wrong.

不管这些赔率来自哪里，它们都只是人们的主观看法。

No matter where those odds come from, they are still only a perception.

不管是宾利的收盘赔率，反映了一大群人的共识，还是我随便说个‘我觉得二比一’，这都是我的主观判断，不管是哪家机构的赔率，来源根本不重要。

So whether it is pinnacles closing line and lots of people perception of all those lots of people, or whether it is me saying, I think top number two to one, that is my view, that is my perception, whether it's bet three, six, five, it does not matter where they are.

在体育博彩里，无论你看到什么赔率，它们都只是主观看法。

It is only using those odds is a perception, wherever you see them in sports betting odds.

这就导致了我们在面对这些事件时，因为它们都只是主观判断，根本没有确定的答案，再加上我们不懂背后的数学原理，也不清楚事情会怎么发展，结果就很容易想错，就这么简单。

And that leads to us then when we can move into these events because they are only perceived and there's no definitive answer to put on them, and we don't understand the maths, because we don't understand that maths and how things may play out, we end up just thinking wrong, simple as that.

最简单、最常见的例子就是抛硬币。

You know, the easiest and most used example is a coin toss.

这个例子非常好理解。

So it is really easy to explain.

我们知道，一个普通的硬币有两面。

We know a standard coin has two sides.

正面和反面出现的概率完全一样。

It has exactly the same of flipping a head or a tail.

它甚至可能连续出现一百次正面。

It could return 100 heads on the trot.

你不停地抛，不停地抛，结果还是正面朝上。

We can flip it and flip it and flip it, it just keeps coming up heads.

每一次抛掷都是独立的，不会影响下一次，但最终，反面总会出现。

One event doesn't affect the next event, but eventually it will flip tails.

它不可能一直都是正面，因为数学上根本不允许这种情况持续下去。

It cannot possibly remain heads forevermore because the maths will not allow it.

你翻得越多，就像你下的注越多，这些连赢的走势最终都会显现，结果也会越来越接近五五开。

And the more we flip it, the more we flip it, just like the more bets we have, the more that these runs will play out, but the closer you will get to a fifty fifty outcome of heads and tails.

如果你只翻五次，完全可能五次都是正面。

If you flip five times, you could get five heads.

如果你翻五千次，结果就会慢慢接近五五开。

If you flip 5,000 times, you're gonna start to get close to fifty fifty.

如果你翻五百万次，那结果几乎就是精确的五五开了。

If you flip 5,000,000 times, you're gonna get really close to fifty fifty.

你做得越多，真实的概率就越会显现出来。

The more you do it, those true odds will play out.

比如说，你和朋友打赌猜正反面，他连赢了十次，你就一直押反面。

But people who, you know, people, let's say you were having a bet with your mate, heads and tails, and he won 10 times on the trot, just call him tails 10 times.

你可能会觉得他能控制结果。

You think he's got some control over it.

你会想，算了，我再也不这么干了。

You think, well, I'm not doing that anymore.

好像有什么神秘的力量在起作用。

There's something mystical going on.

你得明白，这种事情就是会发生，本来就是这么运作的。

You've just got to understand that these things can happen and that is how these things play out.

要想在体育博彩、交易、赌博——不管你怎么叫它——赢钱，其实很简单，你得有优势，而这个优势，永远都只是你感知到的。

To win at sports betting, trading, gambling, whatever we wanna call it, and I don't get too bogged down by names, quite simply we need an edge, and that edge again will only ever be perceived.

比如看足球比赛，假设胜率是50%，那赔率应该是2.0，100除以2.0就是50%。但如果你发现某种方法，能在这类赔率下赢55%的场次。

So if we look at football and a sort of 50% outcome, we would want to say let's bet at teams of two point nought, those I'll just reconcile with a percentage of 50%, 100 divided by two point nought, it's 50%, but you might be winning or found a a method that wins at those odds 55% of the time.

那你就有了优势，因为你赢55次，只输45次。

So you have an edge because now you're not losing you're you're winning 55 bet, you're only losing 45.

每打100注，你实际上就多赢了5注，净赚5%。

So every 100 bets, you're in effect winning 5%, winning that five bets extra in the middle.

但即便如此，在这个赔率下，你还是会输掉45%的投注。

But at those odds, you are still gonna lose 45% of your bets.

所以平均下来，每一百注你会输掉四十五注，而这些输注什么时候出现，你完全无法控制。

So on average, every 100 bets, you're gonna lose 45, and you have absolutely no control over how those 45 losing bets will fall.

你可能一上来就连输八注，大多数人遇到这种情况都会放弃，错过后面的赢局，因为他们想不通：‘在这样的赔率下，我怎么可能连输八次？’

It may be that you lose your first eight bets that you place, And people will normally do that, give up, and will miss the winning sequence that comes and move on, because your expectancy, and this is the bit the expectation is, how can I possibly lose eight bets at those odds?

这怎么可能发生呢？

How can that possibly happen?

其实这只不过是数学在正常发挥作用罢了。

When all it is is actually the math's playing out.

这一点非常重要，因为你下注越多，迟早都会遇到这种连输的情况。

It's really important to understand that because the reality is, the more you bet, the more likely at some stage you will hit those runs.

你一定会遇到连输的阶段，但同时你也知道，这种状态不可能一直持续下去。

You'll definitely hit such a run or losers, but also that it cannot possibly continue.

事情不可能一直赢，也不可能一直输，但大多数人一遇到连败就逃了，根本没给自己等到赢局的机会。就像我开头说的，那笔钱已经没了，再也拿不回来了，你又拿另一笔钱重新开始，反复循环，资金池就这么越来越小。

Things do not win all the time, things do not lose all the time, but most people run away when that bad run comes, don't give themselves chance then to hit the winning periods, and as I say at the start, you're writing that money off, that's lost, you're not gonna get it back now, and you start with another pot of money, and you keep repeating it, and it's just an ever diminishing pot all the time.

如果你不理解这些原理，不从一开始就调整好预期，那你就真的没有任何成功的可能。

And failing to understand those principles, and understand and manage your expectations at the start will genuinely see you have no chance of success.

当我跟那些带着最初预期进入这个游戏的人聊天时，真的很难让他们明白：我到底该期待什么？

Really struggle when I talk to people who move into this game with their initial expectations, what is it that I am expecting to do?

如果你指望能有更好结果，那其实是在骗自己。

So, you're fooling yourself if you expect better outcomes of that.

55%的胜率，赔率2.0，这已经非常好了，别管Twitter或社交媒体上那些说法。

55% at two point naught is fantastic, no matter what you see on Twitter and social media, those sort of things.

当然，如果我们下注的赔率不同，比如去赌赔率4.0的足球比赛，市场预期胜率就是100除以4，也就是25%。

Obviously, if we bet at different odds, if we're betting at bigger odds, if we're trying to bet, you know, football matches at four point naught, the the market expectation, 100 divided by four is 25%.

你可能赢27%，还是有优势，但你会输掉73%的注。

You might be winning 27%, still got an edge, but you're gonna be losing 73% of your bets.

一百注里，你有七十三注会输。

73 bets out of a 100, you're gonna lose.

突然间，你的连输记录很容易就达到十五、十六，甚至十七注。

All of a sudden, now your longest losing run could be fifteen, sixteen, 17 bets really easily.

如果你不理解这一点，不调整好自己的预期，那迟早会撑不住。

And if you don't understand that and that expectation, then you are going to struggle.

这其实是一个根本原则，很多人一进入投注就容易被误导，短期内你可能表现得不错。

So it is a real fundamental principle and you may do, I think people get fooled when they move into betting things, you may do better over a short period.

比如说我们还是拿赔率2.0的足球比赛来说，你可能前10场全赢，一场不落，但输不会一直持续，赢也不可能永远持续，迟早会回落。

You may, you know, let's say we'll go back to our football teams at two point zero, you may win a 100% of the first 10 bits, you may win all of them, but just as things can't keep losing, you cannot keep winning like that, and it can't possibly continue, so it will be a downturn.

所以很多人加入预测服务，一开始导师连胜几场，看起来特别厉害，结果一连输四五场，立马就觉得这人不行了，再也不跟了——其实这不过是正常波动在起作用。

So again, people join, let's say they join a tipping service, and the guy gets off to a flying start, and then he has four or five, oh, he's rubbish, he's gone, I'm not doing him anymore, where in effect, all that happens is that is natural variance playing out.

当这些连输的情况出现时，大多数人要么放弃，要么怀疑自己，因为他们根本不知道该期待什么。

And most give up or doubt themselves when these runs come, these losing runs, because they have no idea what to expect.

他们从来没去想过，到底该期待什么样的结果。

They have not looked at what to expect.

他们总以为某件事会一直赢下去，我说这话的时候都觉得荒谬，指望一件事永远赢，反过来，觉得一件事会永远输，那更是疯了。

They've got this expectancy that something will win forever, and as I say those words, it's madness, the expectancy that something will win all the time, and conversely, the expectancy that something will lose all the time is absolute mad.

我在足球投注里看到的最大误区之一，就是有人看到某支球队连胜，就以为这种势头能永远持续。

And one of the biggest foibles for me in football betting that I see is people see things win a 100% of the time and think that they will continue forever.

不可能的，这根本办不到。

They won't, it cannot.

热刺本赛季每场比赛上半场都进了球，但别忘了，这可是热刺的上半场进球。

Tottenham have scored in 100% of their games in the first half this season, back at Tottenham first half goal.

一般来说，顶级球队的比赛上半场进球率大约在76%左右。

Football matches in general run about seventy six percent first half goals for the top teams.

所以指望这种100%的纪录能一直持续，那简直太傻了。

So to expect 100% to continue is nuts.

关键是找对热刺的赔率下注，别以为他们能每场都进，其实他们做不到，没有任何球队能做到。

It's all about betting Tottenham at the right odds and not expecting that they're gonna score a 100% of the time because they don't, and no other team does.

所以我会反过来考虑这注怎么下。

So I would be looking at the other side of that bet.

如果真能每场都进，赔率迟早会反映出来，赔率会一路暴跌，到时候就一点价值都没有了。

And if it was a 100% of the time, the odds would reflect it eventually, the odds would come right down and there'd be no value there.

足球队进球越多，相关的赔率就会随之调整，这就是一个根本性的区别。

So as a team scores more goals in football, the odds for them doing so changes, and that's one of the fundamental differences.

轮盘赌的赔率是固定的，但体育赛事的赔率会变，可能一天一变，一场一变，取决于实际情况。如果热刺连续进球，市场就会开始反向操作，压低赔率，让人越来越难赢。

The roulette wheel odds can't change, the odds in sports events change, they can change from day to day, they can change from event to event based on what's happening, and then obviously if Tottenham were on a run of scoring goals, the market would start to oppose that and lower the odds so that people would struggle to win.

关键是要能理清这些逻辑，对市场可能出现的情况有合理的预期，然后才能继续下去。

And it's just being able to work your way through that and have any expectation of what can happen in that market that you can then proceed.

足球投注者、交易员——我主要做足球投注——还有其他运动的投注者，常常陷入这种‘百分之百’的思维陷阱，这种想法太不靠谱了，根本没可能成功。

But football bettors, traders, and I do football betting mostly, imagine bettors of other sports, use this sort of 100% thinking and things to control their betting, and it's so ill thought out that genuinely they've got no chance of success.

作为人类，我们总觉得自己能掌控一切，喜欢操纵局面，试图消除任何失败的可能性。

As a species, we're just a human species, we like to think we have control, we like to control situations, and we like to try and manipulate things to eliminate any chance of failure.

在投注时，以为能控制胜率、左右结果走向，这完全是自欺欺人。足球比赛的结果本质上是随机的，最终都会回归均值。我们真正该做的，是顺势而为，抓住上涨趋势，避开下跌阶段，一路上寻找微小的优势机会。

So in betting to feel that we could control the strike rate and the way results will fall is a nonsense, football results can and will fall perfectly randomly, they will all tend to head back to a mean, and really what we wanna do over time is we wanna ride the up trends, manage and omit the down trends, and find pockets of edge along the way.

足球始终会是全球最可预测的运动之一。

Football remains and will remain one of the most predictable sports on the planet.

我觉得随着越来越多资金涌入，它可能会变得更加可预测。

I think with the money coming into the game, it'll probably get even more predictable.

人们对预期缺乏基本理解，总以为只要开始做某件事，就能大赚一笔，还妄想控制输赢的节奏——我见过几百次了，结果无一例外：人们在连输几场后就放弃了。

So this lack of understanding sort of about expectancy, the expectation of, oh, I'm gonna start doing this and I'm gonna win a load of money, and the willingness to try and control our runs of wins and losses, all it ever leads to, and I've seen it hundreds of times, all it ever leads to is people giving up on a losing run.

他们完全不懂背后的数学原理，结果就盲目地用各种过滤系统来剔除亏损，以为这样就能解决问题。典型的例子就是，我经常看到有人做半场比分让球，分析自己两个月的战绩时发现：半场1比1的比分他压了八次，结果七次都输了。

There's a complete lack of understanding of the maths behind it and as a result, for the way we bet on FTS people over to filter back fit systems to remove losses, thinking that's the answer, and a typical example, see numerous examples of this when I'm looking at people's systems, is let's say perhaps a better who lays the halftime correct score, and in analyzing his results, you know, he's done whatever, two months, and analyzing his results, sees that the halftime correct score, like Betsy's been having eight of them, or when it was one one at half time, and he's laid that eight times, and seven of them have lost.

他们就凭这个随便做个判断，心想：‘我在这项1比1的比分上连输几次，那我就干脆避开它。’

And they just make a base, a judgment from that and go, oh, well, I've lost on the one one, so I'm gonna omit that.

于是就把这个比分从考虑范围里剔除了。

So they take that score line out of the equation.

你真正该做的，反而是坚持这个选项，甚至反着来，因为这种情况不可能一直持续下去。

What you should actually be doing is probably, you know, sticking with that, doing the opposite because it can't possibly continue like that.

你知道，七八成的比赛下半场都会进球，如果某个比分的出现频率远低于这个比例，迟早会反弹回来。

You know, 78, 79% of games have a second half goal, so if a particular score line is falling well below that, at some stage it has to move the other way.

我们根本不会逆着思维去想，总以为能掌控局面，觉得把1比1的比分去掉就能解决问题。

But we're not thought to think against the grain, we're not thinking, again, think we can control that, we can take the one ones out, and that deals with that problem.

我们从小就没被训练成这样去思考。

We're not wired or socialized into thinking.

其实你应该继续坚持，因为趋势终会反转，这正是体育博彩和交易中成功的关键之一。

Actually, just keep going with that, because it will spin round, and that is one of the key elements of success in sports betting and trading.

这正是我能在这一行坚持这么久的原因——但你得从一开始就摆正预期，真正做足功课，搞清楚自己想赌什么、可能发生什么，在下注前就先想明白可能出现的结果，这样你才能在心理上做好准备，应对接下来的起伏。每个人都会经历顺境和逆境，提前想清楚，才能让你走得更稳。

It's the reason why I've stuck around so long, but you've got to have your expectation right at the start, so you've got to really do your work before you get involved in this game and go, this is what I wanna bet, what could happen, and understand what could happen before you put a bet down, and that then will mentally prepare you better for what is ahead and the ride you will go on, and we all go on good and bad rides, that will mentally prepare you better through that journey.

你以为随便加入一个博彩服务、荐号师，或者别的什么，就能立刻开赢，而且永远赢下去？这简直荒谬透顶。可现实中，赌徒们天天这么想，遍布整个博彩行业，无一例外。

To think you can just join a service, a tipster, whatever it may be, and you're gonna start winning straight off the bat, and you're gonna keep winning forevermore, and when you don't give up and walk away, frankly, it's just ludicrous, and it is something that betters repeat day in, day out, right across, you know, the whole of the betting industry, whatever it may be.

我坚信这个游戏是可以赢的，我知道它能赢，但你得先摆正心态，做好准备，清楚地知道可能发生什么。只要你能做到这一点，成功的机会就大得多。

I'm a firm believer in this game can be beat, I know it can be beat, but you've got to have your expectation before you start on a level sort of field, ready to go and understand what can happen, and if you do that, then you've got a fantastic chance of being successful.