FTS Betslip Mindset Series Episode 2

欢迎来到FTS投注单播客心态系列。

Welcome to the FTS Betslip Podcast Mindset Series.

FTS投注单播客这一系列节目的目标，是为你积累一套实用的心态建议库，方便你随时随地收听，助力你的投注和交易之路。

The aim of these episodes of the FTS Betslip Podcast is to build up a library of sound mindset advice that you can access anywhere and use to help you on your betting and trading journey.

如果你是第一次接触这个心态系列，建议你回头补听一下之前错过的节目。

If you are new to this mindset series of podcasts, then please make sure you go back and catch up on any previous episodes that you may have missed.

每期节目都配有对应的博客文章，供你参考。

Each cast will also have a written blog version to go alongside it.

文章都在我们的网站 ftsincome.co.uk 上。

That is on our website ftsincome.co.uk.

部分节目还会在FTS Income频道发布配套的YouTube视频。

And some of the episodes will also have an accompanying YouTube video on the FTS Income channel.

记得订阅这个频道，别错过任何有帮助的视频内容。

So please make sure you subscribe to that so that you don't miss any of the informative videos.

祝你顺利，希望接下来的旅程能让你在投注和交易中收获丰厚回报。

Good luck and I hope to take you on a profitable journey with your betting and trading activities.

如果喜欢这些播客，麻烦在你听的平台留下一个评价。

One thing, if you do enjoy these podcasts, please consider leaving a review on your podcast listening platform.

欢迎来到心态系列的第二集，今天我们要聊的是正确的思维路径——搞清楚你为什么这么做。

Welcome to episode two of our mindset pods, and in this one I wish to discuss the right mental pathway, looking at your why.

你做体育交易，到底想得到什么？

What do you want to gain from being a sports trader?

要做到这一点，你得先改变自己的思维方式。

To do this, you've got to change the way you think.

你要围绕目标来规划自己，设定短期、中期和长期目标，然后明确每一步该怎么做。

You've got to look at setting yourself up around a goal based focus, so short term goals, medium term goals, long term goals, and what you need to do to get there.

你做的每一件事，都应该基于你的目标、优势、偏好，以及你手头的时间和资金。

Everything that you do should be set around you, your goals, your attributes, your strengths, preferences, time and money that you have available.

让我觉得特别惊讶的是，很多人明明知道什么适合自己，却偏偏忽略目标，盲目跟风别人的做法，这在投注和交易圈里特别明显。

I think one of the things that amazes me human behavior wise is how people sort of disregard goals and what suits them and get carried away on waves of what other people are doing, and that really is visible in the betting trading community.

我们得开始转变思维，去思考什么才是真正该关注的、该做的，而不是被外界灌输的那些东西。

I think we've got to start the process of changing your thinking to what we should be looking at, what we should be doing, rather than what we have been socialised into.

我多次提到过，我们其实都被社会环境塑造了，生活中的方方面面都如此，比如我们所处的圈子、成长方式、人生经历、为人父母、童年经历、外界的期待，还有体育方面，我们必须把这些因素重新梳理，让它们和体育、体育交易中的真实情况对齐，而不是和我们主观的期待保持一致。

I've talked many times about I'm a great believer in we're socialised into situations, in all things in life, and that comes through mixing in groups, how we were brought up, our own life experiences, parenthood, childhood, expectancy levels, and in sports what we've got to do is pull those all back in, and get them to line up with what happens in sports and sports trading, as opposed to what we expect to happen.

我觉得首先得明白，每个人都会输。

I think obviously the first thing is that everybody has losers.

没有谁在投注和交易中从来没输过。

There's not one person alive who doesn't have losers at trading and betting.

不管你交易什么，结果都一样。

It doesn't matter what they trade.

可能是赛前的赛马投注。

It could be pre race horse racing.

也可能是半场进球的让球盘。

It could be laying half time market goals.

也可能是网球交易、外汇交易、比赛结果盘口。

It could be trading, tennis trading, forex trading, match markets.

只要是走这条路的人，谁都逃不开输的时候。但我们这个圈子里，很多人只晒赢钱的截图，吹捧什么‘圣杯’策略，只讲盈利，甚至伪造截图，假装在Bet365上赚得盆满钵满。你很容易就被带偏了，因为你脑子里想的是怎么快速赚钱，而不是‘我该怎么做’，总觉得能捞一笔快钱——但其实根本不存在什么快钱。

Everybody who goes down this path has losers, and we do live in a sort of community in gambling where people promote, they frown the holy grail, people post only green screens, people only talk about winnings, people complete and utterly scam screenshots and make it look like they're winning fortunes off bet365, and it's quite easy just to get drawn in that because the process that you're thinking of is money first rather than what do I need to do, or I could get some quick money here, and there's no such thing as quick money.

你一旦信了，事情就出问题了。

You you buy into it and that's when it goes wrong.

根本不存在每笔交易都百分百准确这回事。如果我们回看第一集网站上的期望值表格，就能看到你预期的连输区间。

There is no such thing as getting all your trades 100% correct, and if we go back to episode one where we've got the expectancy table on the website version, you can see your expected run of losers.

今天早上我看了一个数据，有十到十二场比赛，主队热门的赔率都低于1.5。

I was looking at something I do this morning, and I had 10 or 12 matches where the home favorite was priced underneath 1.5.

十二场里只赢了一把，输了十一场，其中有八场是连续输的，赔率都在1.5以下。

I had one winner in twelve, eleven losers in 12 matches, eight of them on the bounce at odds of 1.5 or below.

要是我公开推荐这些，别人肯定觉得我完全不懂行。

Just imagine if I was tipping those up, people would think I was absolutely clueless.

但总体来看，这一组比赛算下来，我净赚了大约五十个点。

But overall, over the section of matches, it had won about 50 points.

你一定会遇到输的时候。

But you will experience losers.

市面上到处都是鼓吹‘不输’的营销，谁跟你说这种话，那他就是在骗人。

You know, there's loads of marketing centered around not losing, and and anybody who tells you that is telling you lies.

你知道吗，就像我说的，社交媒体上全是绿幕剪辑，YouTube上有成千上万的视频，只展示赢的交易，让人觉得这事儿特别简单。

You know, as I say, social media green screens, hundreds of thousands of YouTube videos that only ever show positive trades, making it look straightforward.

我个人不觉得体育交易或博彩有多难。

I personally don't believe that sports trading, betting is that difficult.

真正拖后腿的，是人们的信念和预期。

It is people's beliefs and expectations that let them down.

我们必须把这些错误的观念一一打破，你才能成为盈利的体育投注者。

We must undo all those really to make you a profitable sports bettor.

还有一件事，属于正确心态的一部分，就是害怕错过机会。

Another thing along the sort of right mental pathway and one of bit is fear of missing out.

在这个圈子里，人们对别人在做什么过度关注，在我看来，这是体育博彩最大的问题之一。

The obsession in this community, betting tradie community, with others and their actions, for me is one of the most significant flaws in sports betting.

你得清楚自己想要什么，设定目标，我们后面会专门做一期讲目标，怎么定，怎么落实，才能真正实现它。

You should be looking at what you want, have goals, and we'll do an episode on goals, how you will do it, and what you can implement to make this happen.

你得回顾自己过去的行为，很多听这个播客的人，其实已经尝试了好几年想成功交易，但一直没做到。

You've got to identify your behavior in the past, and Lots of people who listen to these podcasts have been trying to trade successfully for a number of years and perhaps not managing it.

你得回头看看自己过去都做了些什么，我经常遇到一种情况，最近在FTS网站上也提到过：要是能杜绝那些愚蠢的投注就好了。

You've got to look at what you've done in the past, and one of the big things that I get, and we had it recently on the FTS website, is if only I could cut out having the stupid bets.

我信得过的系统确实赢了，可一旦没轮到它开注，我就忍不住去别处找机会下注。

A system I believed in and it won, but when I didn't have any bets in that, I went and found bets elsewhere.

这种行为必须彻底改掉，你要找到触发它的根源，从头到尾搞清楚：为什么会这样？该怎么应对？建立一套机制把它彻底排除，到时候你就会发现，其实做得到。

That's just a behavior that just needs cutting out, and you need to find the triggers that make that happen, go right back to sort of root and branch, what makes that happen, how can I deal with it, put a structure in place around that to remove it, and you will find that you can do it?

但害怕错失机会，过分关注别人在做什么，对我来说，是体育博彩中最致命的缺陷。

But the fear of missing out, the obsession with others and their actions, for me, is one of the most significant flaws in sports betting.

你得搞清楚自己想要什么，打算怎么做，能落实哪些方法，把所有干扰都砍掉，专心打磨自己的系统和交易风格。

You've got to look at what you want, how you do it, what can you implement, cut out all that noise so you can master your system, master your trading style.

我的交易方式未必适合别人，你得找到真正适合自己的方式：想花多少时间投入？想成为什么样的交易者？然后把过去那些坏习惯一一纠正。

How I trade may not suit other people, so you've got to master how you want to trade, how much time do you want to be involved in it, what sort of trader do you want to be, and undo all those sort of previous bad habits.

这才是最难的部分。

And that's the hard bit.

我觉得体育博彩和交易本身并不复杂，最难的其实是甩掉过去那些根深蒂固的坏习惯。

Whilst I think that sports betting and trading isn't overly complicated and difficult, the hard bit is undoing all your previous bad habits.

詹姆斯·克利尔写过一本叫《原子习惯》的好书，想了解如何养成好习惯的人可以从这本书入手。

There's a great book by James Clear called Atomic Habits, which can be a good start for people who want to look at sort of habit forming and how to get into good habits.

但更重要的是摆脱那些坏习惯，它们才是拖累你、让你产生误解的根源，我称之为在投注和交易生涯中留下的心理创伤，影响了你对输赢的看法和后续的决策。

But it's undoing those bad habits because they're what's held you back and given you misconceptions and what I call a sort of scarring in your life, betting trading life, about the outcome of trades, trades, and how to go on and do it.

你一定会遇到低谷，必须训练自己应对它们，同时也要学会抓住并最大化那些好日子。别以为职业投注者有什么神秘天赋，所有成功者——比如彼得·韦伯、安迪·里奇曼、史蒂夫·威廉姆森、西科夫、我、还有板球领域的马克·艾弗森——靠的都是苦干和长时间的积累。

You will have downturns, and you've got to train yourself to be able to handle them, and you must be able to handle there and maximize the good days, you've gotta accept there's no mystical power which sports bettors have, it is all down to hard work and putting the hours in, the people you see to see win, Peter Webb, Andy Rich man, man, Steve Williamson, Sykoff, me, Mark Iverson at Cricket, and others, it's down to hard work and putting the hours in.

你不可能一夜之间成为外科医生。

You would not expect to become a surgeon overnight.

觉得随便学点东西就能变成年入数千英镑的赢家，这种想法简直荒谬，你凭什么这么想？

This ludicrous notion that you can pick up something and become a multi thousand pound winning sports trader is madness, why would you possibly expect that?

你得认清现实，搞清楚自己能做什么，看清当前的位置，然后规划一条清晰的路径：起点在哪，终点在哪，中间该怎么走？

That's something that you need to get in check, need to understand what's possible, understand where you are now, and plot the pathway, so I've got a clear starting point, I've got an end point here, what is my path way gonna be to get there?

这条路不会是泡在那些满嘴胡话的投注群里。

And it will not be hanging around in betting communities where people are talking nonsense.

也不会是看到新系统就买，只因为害怕改变。

It won't be buying every system because you're scared of moving out.

你不能今天玩足球博彩，明天就转去赛前交易，后天又跑去玩板球交易。

It won't be jumping from football betting one day to pre race trading the next to cricket trading the next.

你得下定决心，我就要这么做。

You've got to go, that's what I'm gonna do.

要坚定立场，专心做一件事。

Nail your colors to a mast and give something.

你知道吗，你必须花时间去积累。

You know, you've got to put the hours in.

我说过，那些赢钱的体育博彩者都有共同点：他们有纪律，有自己信得过的系统。我知道有些人可能不太相信这套，但FTS上有很多资源能帮到你。

Know, as I say, the sports bettors who win all have the same qualities, they have discipline, a system they believe in, and I understand that can be an issue for people not really having faith in it, but we've got plenty of stuff on FTS that can help you with that.

然后就是能每次都一致地执行你的交易，别去碰那些你不该碰的单子。

Ability then to execute your trades consistently every time, and as I said, not diving into trades that you shouldn't have.

你能连续一百天、两百天、三百天都这么做吗？

Can you do the same thing for 100, two hundred days, three hundred days?

2021年我办过一个暑期训练营，当时和大家一起完成了为期一百天的挑战。

I did a summer school in 2021 where I did a one hundred day challenge with people.

我现在带了一个小组，大概已经进行了五十四、五十五天，正在完成一个一百天的挑战，这是我的一个导师小组，就是想让大家坚持做同一件事一百天，他们表现得非常好。

I'm taking a group, we're about fifty four, fifty five days in now, through a one hundred day challenge, one of my mentor groups, just trying to get them all to do the same thing for one hundred days, and they're doing really well.

这真的很有用，你能做到吗？写日记，记下每天的进展，是的，我坚持下来了。

It's a really good thing, can you do that, diarize it, get a written diary, yes, I stuck to it.

当你掌握了这项技能，学会接受输钱的日子和亏损，也能为赢局感到高兴，即使在系统连续亏损最久、最深的时候也不放弃，这才是真正的进步，这才是正确的方向。我知道这些都会给你带来挑战，有时候你会觉得‘我受不了输’，或者怀疑自己，但只要你有一套清晰的操作流程，就能引导自己走上正确的思维路径。

When you've mastered that skill, and you've learned to accept your losing days and your losses, and you can celebrate your wins, and then you can continue with your system, even on its longest losing run, and deepest hold of not quit, that's when you are progressing, that's when the right path, I know these things will all provide obstacles for you, there will be times when you go, I can't handle losing, or you doubt yourself, but if you've got a process around what you do, you'll get yourself onto the right pathway of thinking.

别去管别人在做什么。

Do not worry what anybody else does.

专心关注你自己的行动，努力改进那些薄弱的环节。

Worry what you're doing and try and work on the bits.

在这一百天的过程中，并没有什么神奇的魔法。

As you go through that process of a hundred days, there isn't a magic power.

我们没有藏什么你不知道的秘密交易技巧，关键在于你如何管理自己。所以第一步，是进入正确的心理状态——你不可能每场都赢，亏损是必然的，我们从第一期就清楚了，根据你下注的赔率，亏损的预期是多少。

There's no secretive trading technique that we've got that you haven't, it comes down to how you manage you, so the starting point is getting into that right mental pathway, you can't win all the time, you will have losses, we know the expectancy of those losses depending on what odds we're betting at from episode one.

现在，我们来制定一个切实可行的计划。如果我现在是刚听这个播客的新手，我会问自己：我的目标是什么？我每天有多少时间可以交易？我想交易什么？我到底想达成什么？我的时间线又该怎样安排？

Now let's get a plan in place for us, so now if this was me listening to this podcast starting out, I'd go and say, what actually are my goals, what time have I got available to trade, what is it I want to trade, what am I actually looking to achieve, and what's my time line for that?

一旦你把这些都梳理清楚，奇怪的是，你就会自然而然地走上正确的中间路径。

And once you start to plot all that out, funny enough, you start to get yourself on the right middle pathway.

你开始建立起一套框架，来支撑你的交易生活，而不是随便跟风社交媒体上的东西、邮箱里的广告，或者别的什么。

You're starting to get a structure in place to build your trading life around, rather than jumping on willy nilly onto things that you may see on social media or get in your email box or whatever.

所以，我会建议你从这期节目开始：去仔细看看你的交易策略——我常对人说的那句话——检查你的策略、你的体育博彩交易目标，反思你现在的思维方式，记下要点，问问自己：我能改吗？能做得更好吗？

So that's what I would do from this episode, because I wanna keep these short and a bit more sort of punchy and action, go and look at your setups, words I always say to people, and look at your setup, look at your goals with regard to sports betting trading, look at how you think now, make some notes on it and go, can I change that, could it be better?

找出那些可以改进的地方，然后开始搭建属于你的系统。

Identify the areas that could be better, and start to put a structure in place.

在下注之前，先为你要做的事建立一套清晰的流程。

Before we even place bets, start to put a structure in place around what it is that you want to do.

祝你顺利，第三期节目很快就会回来。

Best of luck with it, and we will be back with episode three soon.