太空计算 | 头脑风暴 第113期

欢迎来到第113期头脑风暴。

Welcome to episode 113 of the Brainstorm.

我们亲临现场，正在为ARC年度假日派对做准备。

We're here in person, getting ready ahead of ARC's annual holiday party.

好时光。

Good times.

但在那之前，让我们聊聊Netflix的大收购，是否可能。

But before that, let's talk about Netflix, big acquisition, whether Potentially.

或者说，潜在的竞争近在眼前。

Or potentially, competition at hand.

然后埃隆一直在不停发推文谈论太空数据中心，以及IPO、融资轮次的传闻，所有相关事宜。

And then Elon's been tweeting nonstop about space based data centers and rumors of IPO, funding round, and everything that goes into that.

尼克，由你开始吧。

Nick, kick us off.

发生什么事了？

What's going on?

是的。

Yeah.

Netflix已对华纳兄弟公司提出收购要约。

So Netflix has put in a bid for Warner Brothers.

据报道，报价为每股27.75美元，采用现金加股票的形式。

It is reported to be at $27.75, a mix of cash and stock.

此次交易对公司估值720亿美元，企业价值达827亿美元。

It values the company at $72,000,000,000 and an enterprise value of 82,700,000,000.0.

收购主要针对华纳兄弟影业。

It's focused primarily at the Warner Bros.

包括制片厂、影视库以及HBO/HBO Max平台。

Studio, the library, HBO slash HBO Max.

我甚至不确定现在该怎么称呼它。

I'm not even sure what it's called.

它的名字已经改过好几次了。

It's changed a few times.

自从这个消息传出后，我们也知道派拉蒙是另一个潜在竞购方。

And since that news came out, we also knew that Paramount was the other potential bidder.

董事会决定接受Netflix的报价，但从上周末到这周，派拉蒙发起了攻势。

The board decided to go with the Netflix bid, but over the weekend into this week, Paramount has gone on the offensive.

他们现在提出了恶意收购要约，直接向股东提出每股30美元全现金报价，不仅包括Netflix想要的制片厂、片库等所有资产，还包含电视网络部分。

They've put now in a hostile bid, so they're going directly to shareholders with a $30 all cash bid for not just the studios, the library, everything that Netflix wants, but also a part of their deal is the networks as well.

因此CNN等一批在Netflix原收购方案中将被剥离的资产——按该方案股东本可获得每股2至3美元的剥离资产价值——

So CNN and a bunch of other assets that were gonna be spun off in Netflix's version of their bid, in which shareholders would have gotten anywhere from 2 to $3 in value of that spin off.

派拉蒙想以每股30美元的价格全盘收购，这将使估值超过1000亿美元。

Paramount wants it all for $30 that puts the valuation a 100,000,000,000 plus.

现在这场收购战愈演愈烈，

And so now we have this game going on, dogfight.

有传言称Netflix可能会提出新报价。

There's rumors Netflix might come out with a new bid.

我们静观其变，但这对流媒体市场、影院业务和电视网络都将产生重大影响。

We'll see what happens, but I think very big implications for the streaming market, for theatrical, for the networks.

这里牵涉甚广。

A lot is at play here.

这可能是史上最大规模（即便不是最大）的娱乐产业收购案之一。

This is one of the largest, if not the largest entertainment acquisitions of all time.

我们

We'll

凡是收购时代华纳或华纳的公司，最终都浪费了资源。

open Every it company that buys Time Warner or Warner, it turns out to have squandered resources.

这种情况已多次发生。

And it's happened multiple times.

比如AT&T收购案、AOL与时代华纳合并案。

There's AT and T, there's AOL, Time Warner.

这次又会重蹈覆辙吗？

Is this the same game again?

作为Netflix或派拉蒙，花这么大价钱收购真的能获得预期收益吗？

Like if you were Netflix or Paramount, is either of these companies actually gonna do well out of paying this much for this?

是的，我认为这确实取决于你对内容库的信念。

Yeah, I think it really it falls or it centers around your belief in the library.

我想，如果你看到估值正攀升至1000亿美元范围，你必须坚信华纳一个多世纪以来建立的电影内容库——包括《哈利波特》、《权力的游戏》，应有尽有。

I think if you're looking at the valuation and it's creeping up into the $100,000,000,000 range, you have to have a firm belief that the library of content that Warner has built over a century plus of film making, which is Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, I mean you name it, they have it.

DC宇宙，那里有太多内容知识产权了。

The DC Universe, there's so much content IP there.

你

Do you

拥有完整的IP用于商品化和所有相关权益吗？

own the full IP for merchandising and all of that?

是的，获得内容所有权附带的一切权益。

Yes, get everything that comes with owning the content.

我认为如果你坚信这一点，就能解锁其价值，就像迪士尼收购漫威并将其打造成庞大特许经营权那样。

And so I think if you have a strong belief that you can take that and unlock it, a la when Disney went out and purchased Marvel and turned it into this massive franchise.

迪士尼支付了，我想是40亿

Disney paid, I think, 4,000,000,004

十亿。

billion.

是的。

Yes.

这是20倍。

This is times 20.

那么接下来呢？

Well, then what?

你已经有了大约20部漫威电影，所以只需要再来两部《哈利·波特》系列就够了。

You got, like, 20 Marvel movies, so you just need about two Harry Potters.

没错。

Right.

然后关键问题在于：如何解锁商业变现这一环？

Well and then the big question is, how do you unlock the monetization side of the equation?

你可以学网飞说，我们要拍新的《哈利·波特》电视剧，放在平台上，然后向订阅用户每月多收一两美元。

You can be Netflix and say, oh, we're gonna make a new Harry Potter TV show, and we're gonna put it on Netflix, and we're gonna charge a dollar or 2 more to our subscribers.

或者你也可以效仿迪士尼的做法，就是制作大量独立电影，在影院上映，然后每部电影赚取十亿美元。

Or you could, you know, do what Disney did, which was create a ton of individual films, put that out into theaters, and then make a billion dollars a film.

现在Netflix不想走院线路线，或者他们想缩短影院独家放映窗口期，所以这笔交易的盈利模式将与迪士尼收购漫威时大不相同。

Now Netflix doesn't want to go the theatrical route or they want to shorten the exclusivity window for theaters, so the monetization on this deal is going to look very different than the Disney, Marvel purchase.

我们正处于这个新时代，Netflix不仅要与派拉蒙、Disney+竞争，还要与《堡垒之夜》、睡眠时间竞争。

And we're in this new age where Netflix is not really just competing with Paramount, with Disney plus, they're competing with Fortnite, with Sleep.

要知道，消费者一天中任何时候的注意力焦点在哪里，Netflix就认为他们需要在哪里参与竞争。

You know, wherever a consumer's eyeball is at the end of the day or during the day is where Netflix is considering that they compete.

所以他们想要所有这些IP。

So they want all of this IP.

他们想把这些内容全部整合到Netflix平台上。

They wanna roll it into just the Netflix platform.

他们认为HBO和HBO Max会作为独立附加订阅服务保留一段时间。

Think they'll keep HBO and HBO Max as a separate add on subscription for some period of time.

但我认为核心问题在于：如何利用并变现这个庞大的、可以说尚未充分开发的内容资源库？

But I think the idea is really how do you leverage and monetize this massive, what would arguably be under monetized library of content?

因为可以很公平地说，华纳旗下的HBO一直是个表现平平的订阅服务。

Because it's pretty fair to say that HBO under Warner has been a subpar subscription.

我认为如果你查看不同的预估数据，他们在总电视收视份额中大约占1%到2%。

I think if you look at, and there's different estimates out there, they have anywhere from one to 2% of total TV timeshare.

所以从消费者支出的角度来看，这次收购并没有带来大量的观看时间。

So it's not a huge amount of time that you're buying with this acquisition in terms of consumer spend.

在订阅方面，我认为华纳如果只看HBO Max的话，大约有1.2亿订阅用户。

And the subscription side, I think Warner, if you were to just look at HBO Max, it's about a 120,000,000 subscribers.

据估计这些用户中有75%同时订阅了其他服务，所以你并没有获得大量新观众或更多注意力，而是获得了这个庞大的内容库。

75% is the estimate of those subscribers that also subscribe to So you're not gaining a ton of new eyeballs, you're not gaining a ton of more attention, you're gaining this massive library of content.

你认为他们会接手HBO然后宣布说，你知道吗？

Do you think they would take HBO and then say, Do you know what?

Netflix现在只提供广告支持版本了。

Netflix is now only ad supported.

而HBO实际上将成为我们的付费平台。

And HBO is actually our paid for platform now.

也许Netflix仍保留订阅服务，但价格会低得多。

And maybe Netflix still has a subscription, but it's much lower.

他们基本上将整个Netflix转变为广告支持层级。

And they basically turn all of Netflix into the ad tier.

而HBO则成为高端平台，提供更优质的电影等内容。

And then HBO is the premium kind of like place where you get some of the more premium movies and stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

并且需要付费。

And you pay for it.

他们更多的电影内容——带广告的电影体验很糟糕，但带广告的剧集内容相对好些。

And more of their movie content, gets like movie content with ads is pretty bad, show content with ads is not as bad.

所以他们这样定位：这边是付费的电影剧场内容，那边是大型长视频服务。

Like, and so they position it that way where they have kind of like theatrical and movie here paid for and then big long service.

对。

Yeah.

我认为这是思考他们如何通过市场分层来释放附加价值的绝佳方式。

I think that's a great way to think about how they unlock added value in terms of price segmenting the market.

如果能持续推动Netflix高端版（无广告版）每隔几年涨价1-2美元，就能迫使更多人重新考虑并转向8-9美元/月的广告版，而高端版价格正从20美元逐步涨至25-30美元。

If you can continue to drive Netflix premium, so no advertising up at a dollar or $2 every couple of years, you are going to force more people to reconsider and move into the ad tier, is priced at 8 or $9 a month, whereas your premium's going from 20 to 25 to 30.

虽然从直接货币化角度看广告收入较低，但他们能在间接层面（广告业务）获得高利润增长，预计可带来10-15美元的增量收入。

And that advertising, while it's lower from a direct monetization standpoint, what they'll be able to drive on an indirect side, so the advertising business, one, it's very high margin for them, it will be incrementally, and then you can drive anywhere from 10 to $15.

因此净算下来，广告货币化几乎与高端订阅收入持平，这将成为全新的业务线。

So on a net basis, that advertising monetization is almost at par parody with your premium subscription, and it's a whole new business line for you.

你无需从消费者身上榨取更多钱——我认为长期策略是通过市场分层让广告业务占比逐步提升，即便达不到50%，也可能成为主流。

You don't have to, you know, force more dollars out of your consumer, And I think that is the idea over time is to price segment the market such that advertising becomes, if not 50% of total subs, but maybe even the majority.

作为消费者，我讨厌

As a consumer, I hate

你谈论的这个方向。

the direction you're talking.

你是因为

You it because

电视广告历来质量不佳。

ads on television have historically been bad.

实际上，当人们说讨厌广告时，我经常思考这个问题。

I actually I think about this a lot when people say, I hate advertising.

我认为大多数人说这句话时，想到的是他们在观看线性电视时反复看到的汽车广告和保险广告。

I think what most people think of when they say that is the reoccurring car commercial and the insurance commercial that they see time and time again when they watch linear television.

但当你看到谷歌和亚马逊的广告时，你甚至意识不到那是广告。

But when you're seeing Google advertisements and Amazon advertisements, you don't even know.

对吧？

Right?

就像他们能够驱动的流量规模

Like the amount of traffic that they're able to drive

我绝对能认出YouTube视频前的贴片广告。

I definitely know when there's a pre roll ad before my YouTube video.

不喜欢那样。

Don't like that.

忘掉横幅广告，我不是在说那些。

Forget forget ban I'm I'm not talking about banner ads.

我指的是，比如亚马逊上的赞助商品，或者你在AdWords上投放的广告。

I'm talking about, you know, like call it, you know, just sponsored products on Amazon or when you're paying for If AdWords on

产品植入，我没问题。

product it's placement, I'm good.

让所有人都...

Have everyone

回到肥皂剧时代，我们又开始卖肥皂了。

Back to soap operas, we're selling soap again.

没错，正是这样。

Yeah, Exactly.

我相信当广告规模化且个性化时，不会像传统线性电视广告那样让人感到侵扰。

I have faith that advertising at scale when it's personalized doesn't feel as intrusive as what we've historically been used to in linear television.

我不知道。

I don't know.

感觉就像是连谷歌也这样。

It feels it's like even Google.

在AI出现之前，他们就已经到了搜索结果第一页全是广告的地步。

It was like before AI came around, it's like they were at the point where the whole first page of results was ads.

有位作家科里·多克托罗，他称之为互联网的'粪化'。

There's a writer Corey Doctorowe, he calls it the in shitification of the internet.

这个观点是说，当你建立一个平台时，你会为消费者和企业提供巨大价值，因为你只是想抢占市场份额。

And the idea is that like as you're building a platform, you offer great value to the consumer, great value to the enterprises because you're just trying to take share.

然后你会达到一个临界点，起初你仍在提供价值，但很快就开始用广告和其他东西污染它。

And then you get to a point where first you start kind of like still offering great value to the, no, you'd start basically polluting it with ads and everything else.

接着你开始试图从企业那里榨取更多，把所有东西都拉进你的垄断体系。

And then you start trying to extract also from the enterprises as well and kind of pull it all into your monopoly.

于是用户体验就变得越来越差。

And so it just makes the user experience worse and worse and worse.

那么这是否意味着Netflix也需要开始'粪化'了？

So is this a point of is is Netflix needing to in shitify?

我认为他们

I think they

想要这样做，而且他们并不认为自己在劣化平台。

want to and they don't believe they are shitifying the platform.

我认为他们相信自己能提供令人愉悦的广告体验。

I think they believe that they can deliver a pleasant ad experience.

事实上，我相信大多数消费者对广告非常宽容，特别是当另一种选择是必须支付两到三倍费用时。

That again, I actually believe most consumers are very tolerant of advertising, especially when the other option is, well I have to pay two to three times more.

虽然这不是最愉快的体验，但如果处理得当且有品味，我认为大众是可以容忍的，历史上也确实如此。

And again, it's not the most pleasant experience, but when done right and tastefully, I think it can be tolerated en masse, which it has historically been.

我们每天被数百条广告轰炸，可能只注意到其中几条，而这些被注意到的要么特别好，要么特别差。

We are okay with, We're bombarded with hundreds of ads every single day, and you notice maybe a few of them, and the ones you do notice are either really good or really bad.

那些特别差的广告会破坏整个市场的

And the really bad ones spoil the whole market for

成功完成这次收购后，Netflix是否必须转而争取更多体育赛事版权之类的合作来充实其广告支持层级？

the rest Successfully of completing this acquisition, does this mean Netflix will have to turn around and do more sports rights kind of sign ups and stuff to populate their ad supported tier?

我认为是的。

I think so.

我认为体育内容一直是阻碍更多广告资金流向线性CTV或流媒体的主要障碍，而Netflix一直在争取不同的体育赛事版权。

I think sports have been the major hurdle as to why we haven't seen more advertising dollars flow linear CTV or streaming, and Netflix has been going after different sports rights.

他们已经拿下了WWE的版权——如果你认为那算一项运动的话。

They've gotten WWE, if you consider that a sport.

实际上，所有由大型科技公司运营的主要流媒体平台，正是那些获得新体育赛事版权的玩家。

All of the major streaming platforms that are run by big tech companies are actually the ones getting these new sports rights.

其一，因为体育版权协议——如果你觉得这很昂贵，看看过去二十年间每项体育赛事版权的费用总和增长了多少。

One, because the sports rights deal if you think this is costly, look at the amount of dollars that each individual sports rights, like, on an aggregate basis has gone up over the past two decades.

比如，NFL的版权费正逼近数百亿美元大关。

Like, we're talking about the NFL is encroaching on tens of billions.

每次这些合同重新谈判时，你都在为联盟本身增加数十亿美元的价值。

Every single time these contracts are renegotiated, you're adding billions of dollars of value to the to the league itself.

如今，当广播电视衰落、剪线潮迫使这些公司转向流媒体时，只剩下少数几家拥有健康现金流和资产负债表的公司能真正竞标体育版权了。

And now when you have broadcasts in decline and cord cutting forcing these companies to move into streaming, there's only a few companies left with balance, you know, cash flow and balance sheets to be able to actually bid for sports rights.

所以Netflix，甚至不是他们主观上想要这么做。

So Netflix, it's not even that they're going to to to want to.

实际上这将会自动落入他们手中，因为他们只需要与亚马逊和苹果竞标，而且你知道，他们会在这方面具有竞争力，因为

It's actually just gonna fall into their lap because they're only gonna have to bid against Amazon and and Apple, and it you know, they'll be competitive in that because

那迪士尼呢，ESPN不是正试图

What about, like, Disney, ESPN is trying to

每月收费35美元吗？

charge $35 a month?

嗯，这就像

Well, it's like

他们与他们竞争。

they they compete against them.

这就像OpenAI说我们只需要竞争，但我的观点是，这就像你必须...这是万亿级别的。

That's like OpenAI saying we only need to compete But against my point is it's like you had to It's a trillion dollars.

是啊。

Yeah.

那些是

Those are

糟糕的例子，好吧，你只需要

terrible examples in the well, you only have

与他们竞争。

to compete against them.

更多是在总量上，竞争减少了。

It was more of a in aggregate, there is less competition.

还有更多。

There are more.

这是激烈的竞争，但不是数十家公司竞标。

It's fierce competition, but it's not tens of companies bidding.

目前可能只有四五家。

It's maybe four or five at this point.

我们还有大约九分钟。

We have about nine minutes.

我们要不要转到SpaceX的话题？

Do we wanna switch to SpaceX?

你想做最后的总结吗？

You wanna make a final point?

不。

No.

我想说这个故事还远未结束。

I would say this story is far from over.

他们的恶意收购要约已经提出。

Their hostile bid is out there.

我们还不清楚最终会偏向哪方。

We don't know exactly where this is going to lean.

这事可能会在法院拖上一年甚至更久。

It may end up in the courts for a year plus.

所以毫无疑问，我们未来很可能还会再讨论这件事。

So definitely, we'll we'll probably talk about this again in the future.

所以希望在那之前，我们的Netflix能保持价格合理且无广告。

So And hopefully, our Netflix remains reasonably priced and ad free until then.

我对此表示怀疑。

I doubt it.

还有，你说过如果我们能把它视为一项运动，艾米莉亚，我当时就觉得，好吧。

Also, you said you said you said if we can consider it a sport, and, Emilia, I just thought I was like, okay.

也许就像如果是运动，孩子们必须能参与才行。

Maybe it's like if it's a sport, kids have to be able to do it.

而且WWE没有儿童联赛。

And there's not a WWE Kids League.

嗯，我认为

Well, I think

我打赌肯定有。

I bet there is.

真的有吗？

Is there?

某个地方。

Somewhere.

我是说，我知道体育有明确的定义，但我觉得如果一项活动不能下注，可能意味着结果是预先决定的。

I mean I know there's a true definition of sport, but I think if you can't bet on it, that means maybe the outcomes are predetermined.

嗯，通过预测市场，你可以对

Well, with prediction markets, you can bet on

任何事下注。

anything.

确实。

True.

但我

But I

认为从流媒体平台的角度来看，一项运动只需要有自然中断，可以插入广告就行。

think from context of the streamer perspective, a sport just has to be something that has natural breaks in it in which you can insert ads.

就像NFL之所以价值连城，不仅因为它是NFL，还因为它的节奏非常缓慢。

As in, the NFL is incredibly valuable, not just because it's the NFL, but It's because it's so slow.

比赛中有太多可以插入广告的暂停时间。

There's so many breaks in the action that allow for ad insertions.

所以足球的商业价值相对较低。

So why soccer is, like, less valuable.

是啊。

Yeah.

但球场周围不是有那些漂亮的广告牌吗？

But you have all those nice placards around the field.

对。

Yeah.

好吧。

Alright.

转到SpaceX的话题。

Moving to SpaceX.

太空数据中心。

Space based data centers.

除了欧盟事务外，埃隆一直在不停地发推文。

Elon has been tweeting nonstop aside from the EU.

你们应该给自己一些肯定，因为是你们最先爆出这消息的，他是在回应你们。

And you should give yourselves some credit because you helped break the news because he was responding to you.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

不是的。

No.

我们...他...不是的。

We well, he No.

他确实提供了更多信息，但之前就有关于Round和可能进行IPO的传闻。

He he he gave more information, but there is there were rumors of Round and a potential IPO.

所以我当时就发了推文：如果你在随便想SpaceX值多少钱的话...然后附上了我们和Daniel（如果他不在场的话）以及Mach三十三做的估值链接。

And so then I tweeted out, if you're randomly thinking about how much SpaceX is worth, And I put the link to the valuation that we did with Daniel, if he's not here, and Mach thirty three.

但现在我们得更新这个估值了，因为之前没把太空数据中心算进去。

But now we've got to update it because that did not include space based data centers.

这完全是由星链、D2C业务驱动的，再加上一点火星前景和火星账面价值的考量。

That was entirely driven by Starlink, d to c, and and then a little Mars outlook and book value of Mars.

所以我们有了一个全新的探索方向。

And so we've got a whole new avenue to explore.

我们还有更多工作要做。

We have, like, more work to do.

埃隆的态度是：'这是你们应该做的额外工作'。

And Elon was like, this is more work you should do.

而我们回应：'是的，我们可能确实需要在这方面做更多工作，因为他计划向轨道发射100吉瓦的计算能力'。

And we're like, yes, we probably need to do more work here because he's planning on launching a 100 gigawatts of compute into orbit.

按照他的说法，在2029或2030年前完成。

According to him, by '29 or '30.

你能为我和听众们详细解释一下吗？

And can you break this down for for me and the listeners?

因为他提到了电磁炮、互联卫星，还有向地面传输千兆比特级数据这些概念。

Because he's talking about rail guns and interconnected satellites and sending, you know, gigabits of data down to the ground.

能不能给我们解释一下？因为在我看来这简直像科幻小说。

Like, explain this to us because to me it seemed like sci fi.

确实有点像科幻小说，但从概念上讲，现在的OpenAI、XAI、谷歌、微软和Meta都在投入数百亿美元建设地球上的数据中心，仅限于地球。

It is a little bit like sci fi, but conceptually the idea is that right now OpenAI and XAI and Google and Microsoft and Meta are all out there trying to spend tens of billions of dollars extending into the hundreds of billions of dollars to build data centers on Earth, just on Earth.

在某些地区（比如美国大部分地方）建设基础设施很困难，要为其接入电力更是难上加难。

And it's hard to build things in some geographies, like most of The US, and it's really hard to build things and attach power to them.

因此，当你试图高效部署这数百亿美元时，就会遇到规模扩张的限制。

And so, as you're trying to efficiently deploy this tens and then hundreds of billions of dollars, you run into scaling constraints.

比如天啊，我们需要收购这么多土地，还要找涡轮发电机为数据中心供电。

Like, gosh, we need to acquire all this land, we to find turbine generators to power our data centers.

而埃隆的观点是：我拥有最便宜的运载工具可以把设备送上太空。

And Elon's looking out and saying, I have the cheapest launch vehicle to launch things into space.

在太空中，你实际上可以获得大量始终朝向太阳的太阳能板表面积。

If you go in space, you actually can have like a lot of surface area of solar panels that are always facing the sun.

然后你可以在上面连接计算机。

And you can attach a computer to them.

而且实际上，如果你不把它们装箱或做得太密集，就不会有太大的散热问题。

And hey, actually if you're not boxing them or doing too much density, you don't have that big a cooling issue.

所以与其一点一点艰难地拼凑数据中心，不如直接把数据中心发射到有无限空间和无限能源的地方去。

And so, instead of dealing with all of this painful bit by bit putting together data centers, let's just loft the data centers where there's infinite real estate, infinite power.

至于月球元素，就像刚开始时离开地球很困难一样。

And then the moon element is just if you're starting it's like getting off Earth sucks.

就像他们说的，这就像个重力井。

It's like a gravity well, as they say.

但如果你在月球上，重力会小很多。

But it's like if you're on the moon, less gravity.

你不需要火箭发动机推进。

You don't need rocket engine propulsion.

你可以用其他推进方式把东西送入地球轨道。

You could use a different form of propulsion to get stuff into Earth orbit.

如果你在那里有机器人，是个无人工厂，那在某种程度上你就从根本上脱离了地球经济。

And if you've got robots up there and it's a lights out factory, then it's like you fundamentally separate from the Earth economy in in a certain way.

所以这有点科幻。

So that is a little sci fi.

你需要一个能在月球上工作的乐观机器人。

You need a working optimist robot that's going to work on the moon.

你需要建立一个月球基地。

You need to establish a moon base.

那里还有很多工程和技术问题需要解决。

You need to there's a lot of engineering and stuff to go on there.

但就太空计算所需的要素而言，他已经整合了许多关键部分，并且显然制定了极其雄心勃勃的计划来实现它。

But in terms of the elements to do space based compute, he has a lot of the ingredients together and has extraordinarily ambitious plans to do it, apparently.

所以总结这一切的关键点就是。

And it's like, so takeaway of all of this.

SpaceX已经在轨的卫星数量超过了其他所有机构的总和。

It's like SpaceX already has more satellites in orbit than everyone else.

然后大家都表示：好吧。

And everyone's like, okay.

未来会有大约4万颗星链卫星。

There's gonna be, like, 40,000 Starlink satellites.

这就像是，好吧。

It's like, okay.

现在我们要讨论的是百万级别了。

Now we're talking a million.

这就像是，为什么没有数百万颗卫星呢？

It's like, why aren't there millions of satellites?

对吧？

Right?

所以这完全是轨道上物体数量级的根本性差异。

So it's like a fundamentally different order of magnitude number of things in orbit.

另一方面，我认为中国在过去五年里一直在太阳能领域占据主导地位。

The other is it's like I think this is China's been crushing solar for the past five years.

我不想称之为低谷，但可以说太阳能正处于幻灭的低谷期。

This is I don't wanna call it the bottom, but it's like solar was in a trough of disillusionment, I would say.

是啊。

Yeah.

这大概就是那个时代的终结了。

It's like this is probably the end of that.

嗯。

Mhmm.

就像埃隆说的，好吧。

It's like Elon's like, okay.

我们要放手一搏，我猜他们肯定会建的。

We're gonna go for it, and I'm assuming that they're gonna build it.

我估计应该不会建在中国。

Probably not in China would be my assumption.

所以你看，当埃隆决定做这类事情时，资本就会跟进，然后其他玩家也会纷纷成立公司。

And so then, you know, when Elon's goes after something like this, capital follows and then company creation follows from a bunch of other players.

对吧？

Right?

Optimus身上也发生过同样的事。

Same thing happened with Optimus.

就像曾经有过人形机器人公司，但埃隆表态后，

It's like there were humanoid robot companies, but then Elon's like, okay.

我们开始跟进，现在确实有了。

We're going after it, and now there's Yeah.

你知道的，这类公司有数百家。

You know, hundreds of these.

所以太阳能是好的。

So solar, it's good.

我认为它在地球上也会产生相应的影响。

I think it'll have terrestrial it'll it'll have terrestrial implications as well.

没错。

Right.

我认为这是另一个正面的外部效应。

And that's another, I think, positive externality.

我们我们只剩几分钟时间了。

We only we only have a few minutes left here.

我有个问题。

I have one question.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

星链是低地球轨道。

Starlink is low Earth orbit.

这些会部署在哪里？

Where would these sit?

我认为它们会部署在低地球轨道，或者按我的假设是中地球轨道。

I think they would sit in low Earth orbit as well as my assumption or mid Earth orbit.

没错。

Yeah.

我认为关键

I think the key

是的，没错。

It's a yeah.

它们必须是太阳同步轨道。

They have to be sun synchronous.

对吧？

Right?

所以它们始终朝向太阳。

So they're they're, like, always facing the sun.

所以

So

更远。

further.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

所以它们的位置会更高些。

So they would be further up.

没错。

Right.

因为你肯定不希望它们像星链卫星那样频繁坠落。

Because you wouldn't want them also coming crashing down as often as Starlink.

嗯，这要看情况

Well, it depends

取决于你希望这些芯片的折旧周期是三年还是延长到七年——这是个关键问题。

if you want your depreciation cycle for these chips to be three years or if you wanna extend them out to seven Big question going on.

我是说，从SpaceX的角度来看，这也是净收益。

I mean, net, it's also from a SpaceX perspective.

是的，你有更多的发射机会。

Yeah, you have a lot more lofting.

仔细想想，我们曾以为它只是一家带宽公司。

If you think about it, we thought of it as just a bandwidth company.

他们向地球销售带宽。

They're selling bandwidth to earth.

他们利用这些资金建造更多火箭。

They're using the capital to build more rockets.

最终，他们会将资本输出到火星并建造些东西。

Ultimately, they're gonna export the capital to Mars and build something.

我们曾假设月球会是服务地球轨道卫星业务的更佳地点，因为从月球脱离所需的能量更低。

Well, we did hypothesize that the moon would be a better place to service Earth orbit satellite operations because it's lower energy to get off the moon.

事实证明这正是他们调整计划的方向——关于服务地球的部分。

Turns out that's the direction they're shifting the plan in terms of servicing Earth.

现在他们不仅销售带宽，还将向XAI等人工智能公司出售代币。

And now they're not just selling bandwidth, but they're gonna sell tokens to the likes of XAI and other AI companies.

因此可以说他们实际上正在尝试启动一条独立的业务线，这将需要发射更多卫星。

And so they have effectively a separate business line they're trying to launch, so to speak, And that will require launching a lot more satellites.

因此他们将会有更多发射理由，这很棒因为他们正在建造如此出色的运载火箭。

So they'll have a lot more reasons to launch, which is great because they're building such an amazing launch vehicle.

而且他们的服务还将面临一种全新的需求曲线。

And they'll have a whole other kind of like demand curve to hit with their service.

那么也许最后一点要说的是。

And so then maybe last point here.

而且，布雷特，我想你发推提到过并得到了回应，就是这最后——我不想说最后。

And, Brett, I think you tweeted this out and got a response, which is this is the final I don't wanna say final.

这是这些公司最终的融合。

This is the ultimate convergence of the companies.

对吧？

Right?

特斯拉在生产芯片。

You've got Tesla making chips.

SpaceX在发射和制造卫星，而XAI在这里天然就是个客户。

You've got SpaceX launching and manufacturing satellites, and you've got XAI as a natural customer here.

而X平台就是你能了解这一切的地方。

And X is where you find out about all of it.

X平台是XAI的一部分。

X is part of XAI.

不过无聊公司暂时没位置，除非你要在月球上挖洞。

So No spot for The Boring Company though, unless you're digging holes on the moon.

这个嘛...或许吧。

Which which maybe.

有可能。

Maybe.

可能更适用于火星。

Maybe maybe more for Mars.

在火星上，你需要无聊公司。

For Mars, you need The Boring Company.

要不我们简单做个总结？

And maybe we'll just do you wanna do a quick ledger?

你们选好市场了吗？

Do you have a market picked out?

没有。

No.

哦，天哪。

Oh, man.

我们真的在账本环节上掉链子了。

We're really dropping the ball on the ledger element here.

好吧。

Okay.

但尼克说我有一个。

But Nick said I've one.

好的。

Okay.

走，我有

Go I've

找到了一个。

got one.

2027年，Databricks有45%的概率会在该年宣布IPO。

2027, 45% chance that Databricks announces its IPO in 2027.

这算是一个市场吗？

Is is this a market?

我刚查到的。

I just looked it up.

你刚刚查了

You just looked

一下。

it up.

概率是45%？

It's on 45%?

是的。

Yeah.

我想。

I think.

可能是50%吧。

It it might be 50%.

可能是之前或者他们说的是在那一年？

It can be before or they're saying in that year?

在那

In that

一年他们正式宣布IPO，我没看合同，我猜是提交了S1文件。

year they officially announced their IPO, which I didn't look at the contract I assume it's file on S1.

是的。

Yes.

不是。

No.

我要说是的。

I'm going yes.

好的。

Alright.

我想下期节目我们可以回顾一下维斯塔潘的精彩表现，真是惊心动魄。

I think our next episode let's look back Verstappen's so close.

哦，没错。

Oh, yes.

对我来说那简直太刺激了。

Was so through for me.

确实很棒。

It was great.

是的。

Yes.

好吧。

Alright.

事实证明F1比赛其实有点无聊。

F one is kind of boring as it turns out.

他们的排名从不变化。

They never change spots.

这这这观看体验太糟糕了。

It's it's it's terrible viewing experience.

你得早上6点或4点就起床。

You have to wake up at 6AM or 4AM.

这场比赛是早上8点。

This race was at 8AM.

时间还挺完美的。

It was kind of perfect.

是的没错。

It's yes.

NFL有周日比赛而F1的赛程时间很怪

This is NFL has Sundays and f one has odd hours

分散在一周里。

throughout the week.