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大家好，欢迎收看Game Theory播客的休赛期前瞻系列，我和Bryce Simon会逐支分析联盟全部30支球队这个夏天需要做些什么。
Hello, and welcome to the Game Theory podcast offseason preview series where Bryce Simon and I break down all 30 teams and what they have to do this summer.
今天我们要聊的是多伦多猛龙队，他们接下来的休赛期特别值得期待。这是一支出色的篮球队，我在常规赛就准确预测他们会直接晋级季后赛，结果真的做到了。
Today, we're gonna talk about the Toronto Raptors, a fascinating off season ahead for the Raptors, a wonderful basketball team who I correctly predicted in the regular season would make the playoffs outright, and they did.
多伦多猛龙队真是一支了不起的球队。
What a great basketball team this Toronto Raptors team is.
说实话，我真的很享受看猛龙队打球。
I truly think that I enjoyed watching the Raptors.
这不是随便说说的。
This is for real.
我觉得今年我看猛龙队比赛的兴致，比看联盟里其他任何球队都要高，因为他们身上有种特别古怪又独特的味道。
I think I genuinely enjoyed watching the Raptors more than any other team in the league this year, just because they were funky and weird on some level.
整个赛季他们一直带着伤病作战，但还是硬撑了过来。
They dealt with injury throughout the year and kind of worked through that.
更别说，在NBA里，真正比多伦多更适合打季后赛系列赛的地方，实在屈指可数。
But then on top of it, there are so few places in the NBA that I think are cooler than Toronto for a playoff series.
这个球迷群体对球队的支持特别狂热。
That fan base gets behind that team so aggressively.
我超喜欢多伦多猛龙队的那种氛围。
I love everything about the Toronto Raptors vibe.
布莱斯，说说你对多伦多猛龙队的看法，你觉得他们未来会怎样？
Bryce, tell me about the Toronto Raptors and what you think about where they're headed.
对。
Yeah.
我不会像你这么夸张，但我同意，他们每年的表现都挺稳的，我们也不是每年都会特意挑出来，说今年非得重点聊他们。
I won't go quite as far as you, but I agree that they were probably every year, it's not like we sit down and go, hey.
今年本来也没打算把他们作为重点话题。
This is the team we should really push on the podcast this year.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这都是自然而然的，这个赛季猛龙队就是那种会让人主动关注的球队之一。
I feel I feel like it just happens organically, and Toronto was that team or at least one of that those teams this season.
他们可能是我今年最关注的三四支甚至前五支球队之一。
They were probably one of my top three or five watches.
说实话，萨姆，这还得从夏季联赛说起。
And, honestly, Sam, it goes back to Summer League.
我记得开车回家的时候，一直在想猛龙队在夏季联赛里的防守强度，那种感觉跟其他所有球队都不一样，反复在脑子里过了一遍。
I remember driving home and just thinking about that Raptors summer league defensive intensity and just how it was different than just about every other team there and just going through it in my head.
明白了。
Okay.
到了NBA，他们会是什么样子？
What's this gonna look like in the NBA?
他们的阵容到底长什么样？
What's their roster look like?
这些球员真的会全身心投入吗？
Are are all of these guys going to buy into it?
这种风格对科林·默里·博尔斯和贾马尔·谢德这些人来说，简直再合适不过了。
This is going to be perfect for Colin Murray Boyles and Jamal Shedd and all of those.
我觉得那时候在夏季联赛里做这件事的是查基·赫伯恩，对吧？
I think it was Chuckie Hepburn, right, that was doing it at Summer League.
所以这事儿还真是发生了。
So it it really was.
我觉得斯科蒂·巴恩斯有了很大突破。
I think Scottie Barnes took a leap.
对我来说，斯科蒂·巴恩斯的表现让我重新评估了他的潜力——当然，你们要是觉得我错了，我也愿意听，但我现在觉得他在未来争冠球队里的地位已经提升了，而且他在季后赛里也延续了这种状态。
I think Scottie Barnes, for me, and people can just tell me I'm wrong, I'll listen to it, I think I moved Scottie Barnes up in terms of what I think he can be in terms of the hierarchy of a championship caliber team in his career, and he continued his play into the playoffs.
科林·默里·博尔斯是我选秀前特别看好的球员，山姆，但我当时也在想，这在NBA能行得通吗？
Colin Murray Boyles was a guy I loved in the pre draft process, Sam, but I was like, okay, what's this look like in the NBA?
你能把进攻组织起来吗？
Can you figure out the offense?
所有这些问题。
All of that.
但最终他证明了，你可以做到，而且他的防守实在太强了，强到其他问题都显得不那么重要了。
Ultimately, what he's shown is that you can and that the defense is so good it may not matter.
他在防守端真的太出色了。
Like, he's just so good on the defensive end.
我得赶紧说一句，我觉得斯科蒂·巴恩斯完全该入选最佳防守一阵。
I will quickly say here, I think Scottie Barnes should have been first team all defense.
我知道这话题不是为这个设的，但我对这次投票结果不认同。
I know that this isn't what these are about, but I disagree with that voting.
我觉得咱们俩都把他排在了最佳防守一阵。
I think we both had him first team all defense.
保罗和默里·博尔斯，我觉得他迟早也能达到那个水平。
Paul and Murray Boyles, I think, is a guy that will eventually get there.
说了这么多，我不知道该从哪儿说起，但至少我想问一句：到底怎样才能让球队真正成为总冠军级别的竞争者？
With all of that said, and this I I don't know where we wanna start, but I at least wanna say, I do still wonder, like, what's the next move to ultimately get them to title contenders?
现在的阵容就够了吗？还是说，得做个所谓的交易，把那个头号得分手给弄来？
Like, is this the roster that does it, or is there some sort of, quote unquote, consolidation trade to get your number one scoring option?
斯科蒂·巴恩斯可能是队里最好的球员。
Scottie Barnes may be your best player.
我现在就听一下。
I'll listen to that now.
但我不觉得斯科蒂·巴恩斯是能让你在那个级别真正竞争的头号得分手。
But I don't know that Scottie Barnes is your number one scoring option to really compete at that level.
那么队里有这样的人吗？还是得去交易换来这样的球员？
And so is that guy on the roster, or do you have to go acquire that player?
是的。
Yeah.
斯科蒂·巴恩斯在首轮系列赛里场均拿24分6篮板8.6次助攻。
Mean, Scottie Barnes goes for twenty four six rebounds, 8.6 assists in that series in the first round.
简直不可思议。
Just unbelievable.
投篮命中率51%，三分球命中率38%。
51% from the field, 38% from three.
他其实没怎么投三分。
Didn't take a ton of threes necessarily.
罚球命中率80%，每场比赛能站上罚球线八次。
80% from the line, getting to the line eight times per game.
他比常规赛时表现得更加积极了。
You know, he just was way more aggressive even than what we've seen in the regular season from him.
尤其是对克利夫兰那几场，他这么积极地冲击罚球线，我以前还真没见过。
Particularly that ability to get to the foul line against Cleveland, I thought was something we hadn't seen him do wildly aggressively.
你想想，他整个职业生涯场均也就四次罚球左右。
Like, if you look at him throughout his career, he averages like four rebound or four free throws a game.
对吧？
Right?
可这次对克利夫兰，他每场都能八次站上罚球线，这会不会让他以后更敢冲、更敢往内线硬打？
And to get there eight times a game in that series against Cleveland, I wonder if that will maybe unlock something in his aggressiveness and willingness to just get downhill all the time.
咱们走着瞧吧。
We'll see.
但愿如此。
I hope so.
不过我们一边聊多伦多猛龙队，一边翻看这份数据表，得感谢我们的制片人安德鲁·克劳迪奥，这些资料都是他做的。
But just pulling up the sheet here as we talk through the Toronto Raptors, shout out to Andrew Claudio, our producer, for making these things.
我最关心的是，他们会不会成为交易明星球员的潜在主力？
My big question here for them is, A, are they a looming threat for a star trade?
他们有没有可能促成一笔交易，把球星集中到一起，就像你刚才说的那种方式？
Is there any way that they could go and find a star deal that consolidates in the way that you said?
其次，他们长期的财务状况有多关键？
B, how important is their financial situation long term?
这个夏天，他们是不是必须想办法摆脱一些合同，腾出长期的薪资空间？
Do they need to find a way to get long term cap relief this summer from some of these deals on their books?
R。
R.
J。
J.
巴雷特的合同，他们要么让他到期自然离开，要么也可以考虑跟他续约。
Barrett, they could just have him expire if they want to or they could try to extend him.
对吧？
Right?
他们对巴雷特确实有好几种选择。
Like, they have a lot of options on the table for Barrett.
布兰登·英格拉姆下赛季后有个四千万美元的球员选项。
Brandon Ingram has a $40,000,000 player option after this season.
他会选择执行这个选项吗？
Does he look to opt into that?
看他季后赛的表现，他大概率还是该执行这个选项。
Based on how he played in the playoffs, he should probably look to opt into that.
但他要是等到明年夏天成为自由球员，会不会拿到一份更长期的合同呢？
But could he go out and get a longer term deal from somebody next summer by waiting, by hitting free agency?
对吧？
Right?
雅各布·皮尔特签了份巨额合同，但我怀疑他是不是长期中锋的合适人选。
Jakob Pirtle is on this massive contract and I'm not sure he's the long term answer at center.
他才是让人最担心的那一个。
He's really the one that there's concern about there.
更别说，这支球队最让人眼前一亮的就是阵容深度和替补席的表现。
And on top of it, what was so fun about this Raptors unit was how deep they were and how awesome their bench was.
在我看来，替补席上最关键的两个人是贾马尔·谢德和桑德罗·马穆卡什维利。
To me, the two critical guys within that bench unit were Jamal Shedd and Sandro Mamoukaleshvili.
桑德罗有个280万美元的球员选项，但我真不觉得他最后会执行这个选项。
Sandro has a player option for 2,800,000 that I can't imagine he's going to exercise at the end of the day.
贾马尔·谢德今年可以签续约合同，如果你想把他再留一年的话。
And Jamal Shedd's extension eligible this year if you want to lock him in for another year.
所以我一直在想，他们到底有什么打算。
So I'm trying to figure out what the plan is here.
你该怎么为球队的长期成功做规划？
How do you go about setting up this organization for long term success?
我觉得这个夏天，可能重点会放在减轻一些财务压力上。
And I feel like this summer really might end up being more of a summer where, like, maybe you try to, like, ease some financial burdens here or there.
也许你可以考虑交易布兰登·英格拉姆，他刚打完一个常规赛全明星赛季，但季后赛表现并不理想。
Maybe you look at moving Brandon Ingram coming off of a regular season all star year, but not a great playoff run at the end of the day.
也许你可以考虑交易RJ·巴雷特，而不是跟他续约。
Maybe you look at moving RJ Barrett instead of extending him.
也许你可以考虑交易埃曼努埃尔·奎克利，我觉得他这个赛季表现非常出色，只是季后赛期间不幸受伤了。
Maybe you look at moving Emmanuel Quickley, who I thought had an awesome year and just unfortunately wasn't healthy for the playoffs.
然后好好想想，围绕斯科蒂·巴恩斯打造球队，我们最好的出路到底在哪里？
And try to figure out, okay, what is our best pathway toward top end success building around Scottie Barnes?
因为我觉得你说得对，虽然我很喜欢这支球队，但以现在的阵容，他们不可能赢得总冠军。
Because I think that I agree with you that while I love this team, I don't think they can win a title as presently constructed.
他们至少还需要再补一个真正的核心球员，才有资格在东部争顶。
They probably need one more real guy at least to compete at the top of the Eastern Conference.
是的。
Yeah.
当你仔细看他们的账面时，真的很有趣，我的直觉告诉我，显然得围绕斯科蒂。
That's what it's really funny whenever you kind of just look at their books because my gut says, obviously, Scotty.
毫无疑问。
No question.
对吧？
Right?
还有那个年轻球员科林·默里·博尔斯，我觉得贾马尔·谢德对他们来说非常关键。
And then, you know, like the young guy in Colin Murray Boyles, I would I think I just think Jamal Shedd is very valuable to what they do.
所以这个人是必须留下的。
And so that's a player you need to keep on the roster.
那个能终结对手投篮的人，会特别有意思。
The man who kill his feely thing will be really interesting.
但说真的，我本能觉得应该留下RJ·巴雷特，可他现在合同最短。
But then it's like, so my gut says I would want to keep RJ Barrett, but he's the one on the shortest deal now.
对吧？
Right?
就剩一年了。
With just one year left.
续约他的话，我觉得没问题。
And extending him, I would be okay with that.
但现在你真的有好几个球员签了长期大合同。
But, man, now you really have multiple guys locked into long term money.
除非你有把握能摆脱皮特尔的合同，或者布兰登·英格拉姆、IQ之类的，不然我真不敢轻易把这笔钱锁死。
And so unless you're sure that you can get off of the Pirtle deal or Brandon Ingram or IQ or whatever, it just would make me a little bit nervous to lock that in.
所以我还是觉得，你得送走其中一个。
And so I do still think that you gotta move one of those guys.
对我来说，我会选BI或者IQ。
I think for me, it would be BI or IQ.
我觉得RJ巴雷特还是想留着，但最终还得看能从他们身上换来什么价值。
I think I would wanna keep RJ Barrett as part of this, but it all depends on what the value is as well in terms of what you can get back for those guys.
然后
And then
另外还得看RJ自己想不想续约。
And the other it depends on what RJ wants to do extension wise.
当然。
Sure.
没错，完全同意。
No, absolutely.
如果RJ愿意签每年两千万的合同，因为他真的很想留在多伦多，而且他在赛后采访中一直说得特别清楚。
If RJ's willing to do 20,000,000 a year because he really wants to stay in Toronto, and he was so clear in all of those post game press conferences and everything.
我觉得他在离队访谈里也说过，老实讲，我就想留在这儿。
And I think in his exit interview even, was just like, Look, I'll just be honest, I want to stay here.
我特别喜欢这儿。
I love it here.
如果他愿意为了留下而稍微少拿一点，那我确实想留下他。
And if he's willing to take a little bit less to stay, he's probably someone that I would like to keep.
但如果他一心只想最大化收入，那我可能就不想留他了。
If he wants to maximize his value, he's probably someone that I don't want to keep.
关键就看这场谈判了，但我其实并不清楚他们双方心里到底怎么想，对吧？
It really comes down to that negotiation where I want to like, I don't have access to knowing, like, what those two what the push pull of that situation is, you know?
是的。
Yeah.
然后我觉得另一个方面是，他们队里那些年轻球员的情况，比如格雷迪·迪克，你现在对他有什么打算？
And then I think the other aspect is just kind of like the young players on their roster in terms of where are you at with Grady Dick at this point?
对吧？
Right?
因为我觉得，如果你不打算让他上场、不把他放进轮换阵容，那今年夏天就是该处理他的时候了，我不太清楚他们到底怎么想。
Because I think this would be a summer if you're not going to play him and have him in your rotation, and I I don't know what their plans are.
我觉得现在就该把他交易出去，因为他还没到受限制自由球员的阶段。
I think this is the summer to trade him because he's not headed into restricted free agency.
你知道吧？
You know?
这么一来，其他球队能完整拥有他一年，之后才进入受限制自由球员市场。
Like, a team would get a full year of him and then hit restricted
你打算拿格雷迪换什么？
What free are you getting for Grady?
我觉得你不太可能换来更多东西，反正我不觉得有球队愿意用首轮签换格拉迪。
Like, you're probably not getting more I don't I don't know that there's a team that's giving up a first round pick for Grady.
不会。
No.
肯定不会。
No.
我觉得你也拿不到太多，但至少能甩掉他今年那七百万的薪资。
I don't think you are either, but but you get off the $7,000,000 this year.
对吧？
Right?
现在你们队离奢侈税线还差八百万，对吧？
For a team that currently, what, you're seven you're $8,000,000 from the tax.
你明白我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
所以这七百万对某些球队来说就很有吸引力了，只要能把他的合同处理掉。
So, like, that $7,000,000 could become valuable to them if they can just offload him.
现在他们有了完整的非税中产特例，还不用突破奢侈税线，不管他们离税线有多近。
And then now they have their full non tax MLE without going over the tax or however close they're
我觉得这肯定是首要考虑的事。
going get think that's first definitely thing.
没错。
True.
我同意你的看法。
I agree with you.
我觉得他们最好还是考虑在赛季末把格雷迪交易出去。
Like, I think that they should probably look to move Grady at the end.
如果你能交易掉格雷迪，就能用那个空间留住桑德罗，因为你可以匹配其他球队给他的报价。
Like, if if you can move Grady and now you can match you can, like, retain Sandro because of that, because you can match what other teams are trying to give him.
雅各比·沃尔特在季后赛里确实有过一些亮眼的表现。
You know, like Jacoby Walter had some good moments in the playoffs.
虽然我们现在离那一步还远得很，但到时候你还会拿到一个选秀签，再引进一个年轻球员。
And then you I know we're not there even close to it yet, but then you have this draft pick that you're also going to be bringing in another young player.
所以我只是在想，咱们其实挺喜欢格拉迪·迪克的。
So I do just wonder if, hey, we we like Grady Dick.
虽然换来的回报不算好，但也许我们可以把这七百万的薪金空间用起来，毕竟我们已经要用这个选秀权引进另一个年轻球员了。
We're not getting great value back, but maybe we could use that $7,000,000 in cap space and we're already bringing in another young player with this draft pick.
不如趁这个休赛期就让他走人吧。
We're better off letting him move this off season.
我觉得你打算送走格拉迪·迪克，这完全没错。
So I think it's 100% right that you look to move Grady Dick.
这七百万的薪水，必须得从账面上清理掉。
I think that that is just 7,000,000 has to be removed from their books.
说不定有人愿意免费接手他。
It's possible that I think somebody would take him for free.
我觉得肯定有人会说，行啊，我就用个特例把他收下。
I think somebody would be like, yes, I'll just take him into an exception or something like that.
我同意这个看法。
I agree with that.
对。
Yes.
我觉得他作为二年级球员，能力已经足够让球队愿意接手了，毕竟最后总有人会愿意承担的，这也不是没可能。
I I I think He good enough as a second year player to where I think somebody would do that at the end of the day, but, like, it's not impossible.
他们得搭上一个不太好的次轮签才行。
They're gonna have to add, like, a bad second round pick to do it.
没错。
Yeah.
他这表现，真是……
He's still gosh.
唉，真是的。
Dang.
他常规赛虽然打了好多场，但上场时间根本没达到我预期的水平。
His regular season even he played a ton of games, but the minutes weren't even what I thought.
有点奇怪的是，他的三分球命中率远不如我当初预期的那么出色。
You know what's been weird about him is he hasn't been as prolific from the three point line as what I thought he was gonna be.
你明白吧？
You know?
就算在第二年，大家更看重的是他在持球突破方面的成长，而不是三分球命中率。
Like, even in year two, it was more kind of how much he had grown attacking off the bounce than it was his three point shooting.
所以我觉得，如果一支球队有空间可用，而且那七百万美元不会让他们触碰到奢侈税或硬帽线，他们很可能免费签下他。
So I think I I will say I think a team would take him for free if they had the exception, if that $7,000,000 wasn't going to be impactful to them in terms of butting them up against the tax or an apron or something like that.
也许布鲁克林就是个例子，他们虽然没薪金空间，但税后还有余裕，不过他们早就规划好了所有资金，只是还剩一点点没用完。
You know, maybe it's even Brooklyn just once their tax, you know, they have enough caps, not tax, but once their cap space is, you know, they already have plans for all of it and they still have some left.
但你也可能是对的。
But you might be right.
这可能是个情况，你得……我觉得最多只需要一个次轮签，但……
It it might be something where you have to I I don't think it'd take more than, a second or something, but
关键就在于，这个数字实在太大了。
It's just a it's a big number is the thing.
不是，不是，不是
It's not not not It's not
没什么影响。
nothing.
只是缩小了球队的市场空间。
Just reduces the market for teams.
如果我是布鲁克林这边，说到底可能也会考虑，但真不是我的优先事项。
If I'm in Brooklyn, I probably am interested in doing it at the end of the day, but it's not a priority for me either.
我觉得这事他们夏天末尾做会更容易些，但为了留得住桑德罗，他们可能得早点行动——毕竟他们没有桑德罗的鸟权。
And I think it's one of those things where they'd probably have an easier time doing it at the end of the summer, but they probably need to do it a little bit earlier in order to have the space to potentially retain Sandro because they do not have Sandro's bird rights is the thing.
桑德罗是非鸟权自由球员，因为他去年夏天签的是两年合同。
Sandro is a non bird free agent because he signed a two year deal last summer.
作为非鸟权自由球员，要留下他，就得用全额中产特例，不管是纳税人还是非纳税人版本。
Non bird free agents, you need your full number at the taxpayer mid level or the non taxpayer mid level to retain him.
我觉得他拿不到全额1500万的合同。
I don't think he'll get the full 15 or anything.
我同意。
I agree.
我同意。
I agree.
但我认为他的薪资会超过纳税人中产条款的水平，那个大概在七百万左右。
But I do think he gets more than the taxpayer mid level, which is set to be like seven or so.
所以，如果你是多伦多猛龙队，就得提前留出空间，才能给桑德罗每年一千万左右的合同。
So yeah, it's a situation where if you're the Toronto Raptors, you need to have the flexibility earlier on to be able to pay Sandro 10 a year or something like that.
我觉得合适的方案应该是三年三千万，差不多这个范围。
And I think that's where it should come in, is it should just be a three year, 30,000,000 deal for Sandro, somewhere in that ballpark.
在NBA里，一个顶尖的替补内线就值这个价，而他正是这种球员。
That's what a really great backup big man is worth in the NBA and that's what he is.
关于这一点，我想说一下。
So here's what I'll say to that point.
空间例外条款是九百四十万。
The room exception is 9.4.
所以我觉得你不得不给到一千万，因为有多少球队最后都会遇到薪资帽超限的问题？
So I think you will have to go 10 because the three, four how many of our teams end up cap spate?
你是说，湖人队不会用他们的阵容空间签下他？
Like, you're telling me the Lakers wouldn't sign him to their room exception?
我的意思是，
You know, like
对。
Yeah.
活塞队如果选择走奢侈税线路径，其实也能用阵容空间签下他。
The the Pistons could sign him to their room exception if they went the cap space route.
再说，篮网队在处理完其他签约后，照样能腾出空间，我觉得这些球队都会感兴趣，毕竟桑德罗这种球员，灵活性和技术都摆在那儿。
The again, the Nets could do this after doing all of their other biz like, I think all of those teams would be in the market because this is the type of player Sandro is, right, in terms of his versatility, his skill, all of that.
所以我觉得，你可能得超出阵容空间的报价才行，更别提那些愿意动用其他薪资空间的球队了。
And so I do think you would probably have to beat the room, not to mention the teams that would be willing to use.
我同意你的看法。
I'm with you.
我不觉得他会拿到全额非税中产，但三年三千万左右，这个价位我觉得挺合理。
I don't think he gets a full nontax MLE, but three for 30, something like that, that rings true for me.
他要是拿到非税中产特例，也不算离谱，对吧？
It wouldn't be crazy if he got the non tax MLE, would it?
得看在哪个队。
In the right spot.
我觉得有球队可能会直接说，
I could see a team just saying,
是的，我觉得更可能是1000万左右。
Yeah, I think it's going to be more like 10.
我也这么觉得。
I think so
我也觉得。
too.
我就直说了啊。
I'm just going say that.
我觉得更可能是三年三千万，或者三年三千三百万这样，而不是非税中产特例的三年五千万。
I think it's going to be more like three years, 30,000,000 and maybe three years, 33, something like that, as opposed to three years, 50 for the non tax MLE.
我觉得三年大概在三千万到三千五百万之间。
I think it's probably more like between thirty and thirty five for three years.
但他今年场均拿了11分5篮板2助攻，投篮命中率52%，三分39%，罚球75%。
But man, he averaged eleven five and two this year, shooting 52, 39, 75.
他表现真的非常出色。
He was really good.
他是NBA里最出色的第六人之一。
He's one of the best six men in the NBA.
论替补大个子，他是今年联盟里Top 2或Top 3的存在。
Head of cases, one of the two or three best bigs off the bench in the NBA this year.
你必须留下他，因为以你现在的阵容配置，他的存在对轮换灵活性太关键了。
It's just that you have to keep him because he's such a critical piece for you in terms of lineup flexibility with the specific roster construction that you have.
所以在我看来，你得把布雷迪交易出去，才能立刻获得非税中产的资格。
That's why to me, you have to move Brady to be able to have access to the non taxpayer immediately.
一定要确保这一点。
And just make sure that you have that.
对。
Yep.
然后他们还有詹姆斯昂·巴特尔，我觉得他们得想清楚，这人到底适合打什么角色。
And then do they have Jameson Battle who I think they should just figure like, I don't know what type of rotation player.
留着他吧。
Keep his yeah.
他合同还剩两百五十万，而且不是保障的。
He's he's a non guaranteed deal at 2 and a half million.
你就留着他就行。
You just keep him.
说实话，他简直就是为他们量身定做的格雷迪替代者。
Like, he is a really, really good like, honestly, to me, he's the replacement for Grady for what they want Grady to be.
这事儿再简单不过了。
So it's just the easiest thing in the world.
如果真需要裁掉特雷斯·杰克逊·戴维斯的球队选项，或者乔纳森·莫博的球队选项，那也完全可以操作。
And if you need to get rid of the Trace Jackson Davis team option and the Jonathan Mobo team option, you can do those things.
猛龙队的关键数字是，他们为12名球员预定了1.9亿美元的薪资。
The key for the Raptors, the key number here is that they have 190,000,000 slated for 12 players.
如果你裁掉莫博和特雷斯·杰克逊·戴维斯，薪资就能降到大约1.85亿，给10名球员，再算上阵容成本，还能腾出250万美元的空间。
You can drop that number down to about 185,000,000 for 10 players if you get rid of Mobo and Trace Jackson Davis, and then you can add in $2,500,000 of room when you start including the roster charges.
对吧？
Right?
12个人的话，薪资大概能压到1.875亿左右，离第一豪税线还差1500万。
So 12 players, you can down to 187.5 ballpark, and that's about 15,000,000 away from the first apron.
差距非常小。
It's very, very close.
这时候交易格拉迪就很重要了，因为你离第一豪税线差1500万，还没算第19顺位新秀的合同呢。
That's where moving Grady comes in because if you're 15,000,000 away from the first apron, that doesn't include your nineteenth overall pick at that point.
所以在我看来，交易格拉迪才是解开这一切的关键。
So that's why moving Grady to me is the key that unlocks a lot of this.
我觉得他们应该不难拿到非税中产特例，但最后大概率得用它来续约桑德罗。
I think that they can pretty easily get access to their non taxpayer mid level, but they're probably gonna have to use it to re sign Sandro at the end Yeah.
其中
Of the
所以我觉得这都是一些细节，属于球队阵容上比较小的调整。
So I think that that's kind of the minutiae and you know, the smaller, I guess, moves of the roster.
但这可不是小动作。
It's not small moves.
这些是他们必须做的关键调整。
Think they're important moves that they need to do.
至少，我觉得你得这么做。
Like, I think at the very least, you do that.
就算别的都不做，你至少也得考虑一下。
Like, if nothing else like, even if you say, you know what?
对。
Yeah.
那就先搁置，明年再试一次。
Let's go back into next year and let's try this out again.
你知道，雅各布，是吧。
You know, Jakob Yeah.
他的合同就是那样了。
His his his contract is what it is.
也许你觉得CMB还没准备好当首发中锋。
Maybe you don't think CMB is ready to be the starting center.
对吧？
Right?
也许你更喜欢他去年末和季后赛时的角色，就是让皮特尔先上。
Maybe you like the role that he was in the at the end of the year and into the playoffs where you just you start Pirtle.
你知道他拿这么多钱打二十分钟有点亏，但你觉得这样安排对科林·默里·博尔斯和马穆凯勒·伊什菲利更有利。
You know he's gonna be overpaid for playing twenty minutes a night, but you like that for Colin Murray Boyles and for my Mamoukele Ishfili.
而且你希望看到斯科蒂可能……
And you wanna see maybe Scottie is.
也许我又低估他了，让他专心打进攻，其他人都围绕他来配合。
Like, maybe I'm shortchanging him again where he can just be the offensive guy and these other guys fit in around him.
我不讨厌这个想法，但你至少得先做完我们刚才说的那些事，然后再决定：现在是不是该考虑交易了？
I don't hate that, but you at least have to do all of the other things that we just talked about first, and then you make that decision of, okay, are now are we trying to trade?
我们是不是该把其中两个人打包，换一个更厉害的球员之类的？
Are we trying to consolidate two of these guys for, you know, you know, one player that's a bigger score or whatever?
对。
Yeah.
在谈外部引援之前，咱们先把RJ巴雷特的事说完。
So before we move to outside help, let's just finish on RJ Barrett.
RJ现在可以签续约合同了，他也明确表示想留下来。
Because RJ is extension eligible and he's been very clear he wants to stay.
你愿意为留下RJ开出什么价格？
Is there a number you're willing to do for RJ to keep him?
好吧。
Okay.
我纠结的是，萨姆，他愿意降薪吗？
So here's what I'm struggling with, Sam, is like, is he gonna be willing to take a pay cut?
因为我觉得我的报价至少不是加薪的水平。
Because, like, I feel like my number's closer to at least not a pay raise.
说实话，我的数字更接近2500万。
My number is more like 25, to be honest.
2500万也是我一开始想到的数字。
25 was the initial number I thought of as well.
我是不是
Am I
说实话，如果坦率一点，我宁愿再低一点，但我觉得他不可能接受低于2500万的报价。
Honestly, I would like to go a little bit less than that if I'm being real about it, but I don't think there's any chance he's doing less than 25.
我觉得给他2500万没问题。
I think I would give him 25.
如果能用四年签个1亿的合同，我觉得可以考虑。
If I could do four for a 100, I think I would do that.
是的。
Yeah.
如果我能给75块拿三个，我觉得这会是我的提议——如果你真想留下，我们愿意为你提供三个名额，75块。
If I could do three for 75, I think that would be my, Hey, you want to stay, if you're that committed to staying, we're willing to do three for 75 for you.
但关键是，如果你这么做了，依我看，就几乎非得把皮特尔交易出去不可了。
But the key is that if you do that, then it becomes almost imperative to move Pirtle, in my opinion.
我一直在跟萨姆讨论这个问题。
I've been trying to workshop, Sam.
有这个可能。
Is there Yeah.
根本不可能让他留在名单上，明知道他拿得太多，还让他干我们刚才说的那种活儿吧？
There's no world where you can just keep him on the roster knowing that he's going to be overpaid and just letting him play the role we just talked about?
皮特尔？
Purdle?
能不能让他先留两三年，看看情况？
Can you let it play out for a couple years where that
可以，但那样的话，你可能就得把奎克利或者英格拉姆中的一个送走了。
You could, but it probably then you have to move one of Quickley or Ingram.
季后赛结束后，我完全愿意聊聊布兰登·英格拉姆的交易。
I'm totally game to talk Brandon Ingram trades after this post season.
我觉得我们确实该好好讨论一下这个事。
I think that's a completely reasonable conversation for us to have.
但问题是，要是把普里德尔、英格拉姆、巴雷特和奎克利全留下，他们合起来年薪一亿二千万，再加上斯科蒂·巴恩斯的四千五百万，这账就很难算了。
But yeah, I think that it gets hard to keep all of Purdue, Ingram, Barrett, and Quickley when they're making a combined 120,000,000 before you get to Scottie Barnes making 45,000,000.
你懂我的意思吧。
You know what I mean?
对。
Yeah.
到那时候，光是拿个冠军已经不够了。
So it's not good enough to win a title at that point.
而且差距也没小到哪儿去。
It's just not all that close either.
所以我想问一下。
So here's my question here.
你会考虑通过交易来摆脱皮特尔的合同吗？
Do you try to move assets to get off of the Pirtle deal?
我觉得这并不是他们想做的事。
I think that that would not be their preference.
你会考虑交易英格拉姆吗？比如，RJ 能够差不多替代英格拉姆的作用，还能顺便换回一些即将到期的合同，顺便搭上一点资产价值。
Do you try to move Ingram thinking like, all right, RJ can do a reasonable facsimile of what Ingram does and we could maybe get expiring money for Ingram with maybe a small amount of asset value.
我觉得奎克利还是值得留的，我真的很欣赏他上赛季的表现。
Quickley I think is still I really liked Emmanuel Quickley's season last year.
我觉得他上赛季被严重低估了。
I thought he was really, really underrated this past year.
他场均16分6助攻，投篮命中率45%，三分37%，罚球82%。
He averaged 16 points, six assists, shot 45, 37, 82.
他有时候可是球队进攻的核心推手。
He was a real driver of offense for them at times.
我觉得他打得特别出色。
I thought he was really good.
归根结底，我觉得他拿三千万年薪还是太高了。
I still think he's probably overpaid at 32,000,000 at the end of the day.
没错。
Sure.
我有点想，是不是换英格拉姆最简单？
I kinda wonder if Ingram is the easiest route.
越聊越觉得，如果你想避免损失资产价值，换掉英格拉姆可能是最合理的做法。
More that we talk about this, I think that, like, moving Ingram might be the most sensible play here if you wanna not have to give up asset value.
如果你动作快，说不定真有球队愿意白拿，不过我不太确定。
Like, if you move quickly, I think there might be a team that would take quickly for free, but I'm not sure about that.
我觉得他的合同还剩差不多一亿，大概是九千七百五十万左右。
I think he's still probably That contract has close to 100,000,000 left, something like that, 97 and a half million.
这笔交易现在还亏了两千多万，所以还是得搭上一个有價值的首轮签。
I think that deal is still probably $20,000,000 underwater, so that would still require a first round pick of value.
皮特尔这笔合同亏得太厉害了，我都在想，有没有球队愿意为了他接下第19顺位。
The Pirtle deal is just really underwater, and I do wonder if a team would even take 19 to take Pirtle.
我觉得可能只有孟菲斯这样的队才会拼命囤积资产。
I think it would have to be Memphis or something like that, that's just really trying to accumulate asset value.
他们现在阵容名额都紧张，我不确定他们今年能不能消化皮特尔加上一个选秀权。
They even have a roster crunch right now that I don't know that they're going to be able to swing Pirtle and a pick this year.
你觉得有哪支球队会适合得到布兰登·英格拉姆吗？
Is there a team for Brandon Ingram that makes sense to you?
感觉我们每年都在聊这个。
Feel like we do this every year.
确实差不多每年都会提一回。
We kind of do.
太阳队又立刻浮现在我脑子里，他们一向喜欢捡那些被低估的资产。
The the Suns immediately came to mind to me again as a team that could be buying on, like, distressed ish assets.
就算英格拉姆上赛季进了全明星，但以他2800万的合同，季后赛后也算个被低估的资产了。
And I do think Brandon Ingram at $2.80 is like a semi distressed asset after the playoffs even though he made the all star team this past year.
我觉得太阳队有可能这么做，但他们就算有罗伊斯·奥尼尔和格雷森·艾伦，也很难真正把这笔交易搞成，毕竟我还是觉得这安排不太合理。
That's a team that I could see doing it, but they don't really have like the easiest way to functionally make that work even with Royce O'Neil and Grayson Allen because I still don't think that that makes a ton of sense.
对吧？
Right?
猛龙队接手年薪3600万、还带球员选项的杰伦·格林，这完全说不通。
It doesn't make sense for the Raptors to take back Jalen Green making 36,000,000 and then having like a player option.
到头来，这跟布兰登·英格拉姆的情况差不多，只是更差的球员。
It's kind of the same boat as Brandon Ingram at that point, just the worst player.
所以我觉得，迈阿密更可能是在找更好的球员，而不是这种。
So, like, I I think Miami's probably like more hunting for better players than this.
归根结底呢？
At the end of the day?
快船队会不会觉得这事儿有点意思？
Like, could the could the Clippers see this as, like, an interesting
他们倒是提出来了。
they came up.
我本来觉得薪资是个大问题，但后来想想，他们其实有办法解决资金问题。
I assumed that the money would be tough, but I kinda clicked on, them getting to the money.
三点半
Three:thirty
如果猛龙队再次用三个首轮签换来科怀·伦纳德，就像当初换英格拉姆那样，会怎么样？
What if the Raptors did Ingram in three first round picks for Kawhi Leonard again?
然后又像上次一样，全押在伦纳德的一年合同上。
And just like went all in on one year again with Kawhi.
这次换成斯科蒂，再加上队里其他所有球员，他们再次放手一搏。
And this time it's Scottie and it's all the it's all the, like, you know, other guys on the team and they just like went for it again.
这对我来说简直太搞笑了。
That'd be hysterical to me.
但在我看来，多伦多更该往这个方向考虑。
But that like, to me, that's more where Toronto should be looking.
对我来说，最该签给他们的球员其实是贾伦·杰克逊 Jr.
The guy that made the most sense in the world for them to me was Jaren Jackson Jr.
他们本该对贾伦发起猛烈追求的。
They should have gone really aggressive after Jaren.
我觉得他们至少是真下本了。
I think I've read that they like, definitely went for it at least.
所以我不清楚他们到底有多拼。
So I don't know how aggressively.
不过呢，
But, like
我得说一点。
I will say this.
我知道科怀的健康状况一直是个问题，也知道大家总在谈那些理想化的设想，但那个阵容真的会特别精彩。
Like, I I know Kawhi's health is whatever and always a question, and I know we have all the aspiration stuff, but that roster would be a ton of fun.
那个猛龙队，如果你把
Like, that that Raptors, that's a really good Raptors roster if you put
科怀加上，
Kawhi.
还有斯科蒂、科怀、CJB、谢德，
Quickly, Scottie, Kawhi, CJB, Shedd.
你可能得送走几个年轻球员，但这个阵容确实很有意思。
You probably have to move a couple of these younger guys, but that's a really fun roster.
我在想，还有哪些球队会需要这种半场进攻的支援呢？
I mean, just trying to think of other teams that could use the half court offensive help.
活塞队会考虑签下他吗？
Is there any way the Pistons would consider him?
说实话，他确实经常被提到，这点没错。
Mean, yeah, he's always a name that comes up for sure.
我一直以来的顾虑是他和凯德在场上位置重叠，不过我想说，他并不适合勇士队的进攻体系。
I mean, I my my hesitation has always been him and Cade kind of working in the same space and all of that, but I was going to say he doesn't fit how Golden State plays offense.
感觉不太合适。
Don't feel like.
确实不合适。
No, doesn't.
对。
Yeah.
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说实话，这个想法我真没怎么想通。
It's not one that totally tracks for me, be honest.
我觉得他们确实需要得分点，但我觉得这招行不通。
I think they could use the scoring, but I don't think that that works.
我的意思是，如果芝加哥没抢到某些球员，会不会考虑把英格拉姆放进他们的薪金空间里？
I mean, like, could like, if Chicago misses out on some guys, could they look to do Ingram into their cap space?
我确实想过几个可能性，比如芝加哥，还有布鲁克林，得看他们还想怎么操作。
So I thought about a couple of those, like Chicago, even Brooklyn, depending on what else they're wanting to do.
但他们已经拥有迈克尔·波特 Jr. 了。
If well, they already have Michael Porter Jr.
所以布鲁克林这边，其实没那么合适。
So no, Brooklyn doesn't make as much sense.
芝加哥的话，倒是有这个可能。
Chicago, maybe.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，Bryce和Graham以前在新奥尔良和布兰登·英格拉姆一起打过，这正是我特别提到芝加哥的原因。
I mean, like, look, here here's the piece that, like like, Bryce and Graham was with Brandon Ingram in New Orleans is why I brought up Chicago specifically.
所以，如果芝加哥真要这么做，具体要看你们拿出了什么筹码，我觉得让年轻球员有个这样的评分体系，其实没什么坏处。
So here would my here would be my pitch for Chicago to do this, depending on what you gave up asset asset wise, is I don't think having a score like that would be bad for, like, the young guys on your roster.
至少能帮他们更自然地参与比赛，不至于硬塞给他们超出当前能力的角色。
Like, just helping you be competitive in games and not forcing those guys all into roles that maybe are a little bit more than what's what they're ready for.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
So Yeah.
比如说，假设他们选中了凯莱布·威尔逊。
Like, this would take a little let's just say they draft Caleb Wilson.
对吧？
Right?
这样一来，凯莱布·威尔逊和莫迪斯就不用非得当球队头号得分手了，我觉得这俩小伙子现在还没准备好担这个责任。
Like, now Caleb Wilson and Modis, like, aren't having to be the primary number one scoring options on a team when I don't think either of those guys are ready for that role at, you know, right now.
所以布克可以当主要得分手，其他人就能去适应更适合他们的角色。
So BI can be, you know, the number one scoring option, and those guys can continue to slot into roles that might be a little bit better for them.
这对我来说，就是给芝加哥最合适的建议。
Like that would be my best pitch for it for Chicago.
我只是不清楚他们怎么在人数上凑得出来。
I just don't know how they even get there number wise.
我的问题是，
I mean, here's just my question.
如果你是多伦多，会用第15顺位换布兰登·英格拉姆吗？
If you're Toronto, would you do number 15 for Brandon Ingram?
而芝加哥直接把英格拉姆拿过来，
And Chicago just takes Ingram into
哦，对，
Oh, yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
他们有薪资空间。
They have the cap space.
对。
Yeah.
这还用说吗。
Duh.
这太荒谬了。
That's stupid.
是我的错。
My fault.
不好意思。
Sorry.
十五号。
15.
这还挺有意思的。
It's kinda interesting.
这比我原来想的要有趣一点。
It's a little bit more interesting than what I thought.
我总觉得，要是让我直说，我觉得这事我真受不了。
I feel like I should automatically say I think I think that would be hard for me to stomach.
边聊边想，我发现自己有点紧张，怕最后说出来的看法，会跟他们这个休赛期该怎么做、我预感会发生什么扯上关系。
I'm a little bit nervous where I'm ending up on this as we talk through it because I'm afraid what I'm gonna end up saying about what they should do this off season, what I think is gonna happen.
我不喜欢这样会让球队在26-27赛季变得更差。
I don't love that that makes them worse in 2627.
我真的不喜欢这样。
I don't I don't love that.
确实如此。
It does.
这会让球队在26-27赛季变弱。
It makes them worse in 2627.
这话说得没错。
It's accurate.
芝加哥这边根本找不到合适的人选来换回去，这种问题。
Chicago just doesn't really have a guy to send back, this kind of issue.
他们肯定不会把莫迪斯送出去。
They're definitely not sending back Modus.
说实话，我觉得他们也不会把埃森热送到多伦多，换这种交易。
I don't think they would send back Essenge, to be honest, to Toronto in a deal like that.
对我来说，这并不能解决我的顾虑，不过我知道还是有人挺喜欢埃森热的。
That won't remove it for me for what it's worth, but I know some people still like Essenge.
我一直在想，要是他们失去了桑德罗，能不能用贾伦·史密斯加个15号签，换英格拉姆之类的？
Was kind of wondering, is there a way that if they lose Sandro, is it Jalen Smith in 15 for Ingram in maybe a second or something?
对，这搭配挺合适的。
Yeah, that'd be a good fit.
如果真这么操作，这算是个合理的替代方案。
That would be a reasonable replacement if they did.
不过贾伦·史密斯和桑德罗还是不太一样的。
But Jalen Smith is a little bit different than Sandra.
没错。
He is.
他更擅长运球、传球和投篮。
He's a lot more dribble, pass, shoot.
对。
Correct.
能快速组织进攻。
Can operate quickly.
贾伦的打法没那么复杂，就是
Jalen's more simple than that in terms of let's
接球就投。
take quick
中投跳投。
stick and pop.
桑德拉·韦切尼的全面技术更强。
Sandra Vecenie has the more all around skill.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Right.
至少在进攻端是这样。
Offensively at least.
这就是多伦多的情况。
And that's the thing with Toronto.
他们特别想要那种能运球、传球、投篮的球员。
They really want under Darko dribble pass shoot guys.
我觉得英格拉姆的去处其实比我想的要多得多，至少从目前这个角度看是这样。
Think that there are more landing spots for Ingram than what I thought at the very least having gone down this road.
如果波特兰没抢到他们想签的那些人，会不会反而有机会呢？
Is there a chance that if Portland misses out on some of their guys, that maybe that could be a swing for them?
问题是，他们得送出去霍利迪或者格兰特，但这也不太合理。
The problem is that they'd have to send back probably Holiday or Grant and that doesn't really make sense either.
谢恩·夏普，也许有可能，但是——
Shane Sharp, I guess potentially, but-
我其实正想提德鲁，觉得他挺适合多伦多的。
I was actually going to bring up Drew as a sneaky interesting fit for Toronto though.
是的。
Yeah.
但适合做什么呢？
But for what?
我觉得这两队之间没什么互补性。
Don't think there's much synergy between those teams.
没错。
No.
我只是说，如果波特兰决定喜欢BI的话——
I was just saying if Portland decided they liked BI
我马上想到的一个方案是：如果你不想明年倒退，能不能用布兰登·英格拉姆换扎克·拉文，再加点资产？
Here's the one that I thought of immediately was, if you don't want to take a step back next year, could you do Brandon Ingram for Zach Levine and some sort of asset value?
我一直在想莱文的情况。
Steven I wondered about Levine.
克莱
Clay
是的，因为莱文的薪水更高，所以代价也更大。
Yeah, because Levine makes more, so it's going to cost more.
这可不是一对一的简单交换，我觉得英格拉姆的交易还没到亏本的地步。
This is not just a one for one deal because I don't think the Ingram deal's completely underwater.
那能不能用莱文加点其他东西去换英格拉姆？
So it's like, could you do Levine and something for Ingram?
对。
Yeah.
至于多伦多这边，你的想法是不退步，但长远来看能甩掉这笔薪资。
And then the idea for Toronto is just you don't take a step back, but then you're gonna get off that money long term.
这样能提前一年摆脱这笔合同。
You get off the money a year earlier.
但再说一次，他们还要额外承担八百万。
But again, that's 8,000,000 that they're taking on in addition.
就算你用英格拉姆和格雷迪·迪克来换莱文，按资产价值对冲一下，把钱摊平，对吧？
Even if you do Ingram and Grady Dick for Levine in some sort of asset value, and even out the money, right?
因为这样就能把账面差额拉得差不多了。
Because that gets the money pretty close.
但你还是跟之前差不多，依然得再凑出六七百万。
You're then still kind of in the same position that you were and you still have to find probably like 6 or 7,000,000.
到那时候，你可能还得从账上再腾出五百万左右。
You'd have to find like 5,000,000 probably off of your books at that point.
普雷斯顿，杰克逊·戴维斯和莫博能帮你接近目标。
Preston Which is, I mean, Jackson Davis and Mobo get you close.
普雷斯顿，那只有两千五百万，因为你得用阵容费用来填补空缺。
Preston That only is 2 and a half because you then replace it with roster charges.
说得对，没错。
True, fair.
我觉得有点意外，想签下英格拉姆的球队比我以为的要多。
There are more teams for Ingram than what I expected, I guess is my point.
你看看市场上那些快速达成的交易，对吧？
But you look around the market for Quickly deals, right?
其实对身材偏小的后卫，球队的兴趣没那么高，这才是我想说的重点——奎克利的薪资离英格拉姆差得没那么离谱。
And there's just not a ton of interest in smaller guards, or there's not as much interest in smaller guards rather, I guess is my point, where Quickley is not making crazy less than what Ingram is.
英格拉姆的薪资已经涨到四千万了。
Like, Ingram is up at 40,000,000.
奎克利目前是三千二百五十万。
Quickley is at 32 and a half million.
另外得提醒一下，奎克利合同里还有两百五十万的非保障激励条款，这些会算进奢侈税线里。
And also an important note for Quickley too, by the way, is that because he has 2 and a half million in unlikely incentives, those incentives count against the apron.
虽然这些激励条款大概率拿不到，也不会计入工资帽，但它们确实会影响奢侈税线的计算。
So even though they're unlikely and they're not likely to be paid at the end of the day and they don't count against the cap, they do count against the aprons potentially.
所以如果你的球队快触到奢侈税线了，签下奎克利反而会让操作变得更复杂。
So if you're closing in on apron numbers, it actually makes it a little bit trickier to try to be able to make those work with Quickly.
我真的很喜欢奎克利。
So I really like Quickly.
如果我是奎克利，而且我是多伦多队，我大概不会太乐意把他送走。
If I'm Quickly, I'm probably not super excited about moving him if I'm Toronto.
如果能免费处理掉皮特尔的合同，我巴不得马上这么做。
I would love to move the Pirtle deal if I could do it for free.
皮特尔这笔合同的盈亏平衡点在哪？
Is there a breakeven point for the Pirtle deal?
如果只要甩掉1900万就能摆脱皮特尔的合同，你会这么做吗？
If you could just move 19 to get off of the Pirtle money, would you do it?
不会。
No.
这正是我想说的，萨姆，我现在觉得，任何让我停留在原地，甚至可能让球队在26-27赛季变弱的交易，我都提不起兴趣。
And this is what I'm saying now, Sam, is I find myself going I I don't like the idea of making any of these moves that I feel like are just keeping me either at the same spot or maybe potentially making me worse in 2627.
如果我是多伦多队，我完全不认同这种做法。
I I don't like that if I'm Toronto.
我不太愿意看到得把19号绑定在他身上。
I I don't love the idea of moving of having to attach 19 to him.
对。
Mhmm.
这大概是最容易处理的捆绑方案了，我的问题是——
This is this the easiest tie I guess here's my question.
现在是不是最适合把他交易出去的时机？毕竟这个数字在续约生效前还算低。
Is this the easiest time to move him because that number's a little bit low before the extension number actually kicks in?
所以，先说清楚，杰克布·佩尔的续约条款，给不太了解的人解释一下。
So key so Jakob Perl's extension for people who don't know.
他下赛季薪资是1950万美元，2027到2028年涨到2730万，2028到2029年是2950万，然后2029年的3000万只有500万有保障。
So he's at 19,500,000 next season, then is at 27.3 in 2027, '28, 29.5 in '28, '29, and then has a $5,000,000 guarantee for twenty nine point three zero.
没错，你们看的各种网站上都写他薪资是2730万，但关键在于，这数字其实只有500万是真正有保障的。
Yes, he's listed at 27,300,000 on your various websites that you look at, but the key is that that number is only guaranteed for 5,000,000.
所以，这本质上其实是个大约8000万美元、为期三年的合同，对吧？
So this is really a three year deal for ballpark $80,000,000 right?
或者也不是，我记得大概就是八千万左右。
Or is it No, it's right around 80,000,000 if memory serves.
可能七千八百万吧。
Maybe like 78
对，或者说是
Yeah, or
是的，没错。
yeah, yeah.
再加上五百万。
Plus the 5.
所以没错，三年八千万，关键在那五百万。
So yeah, three years 80, plus the 5 is the key.
我觉得现在把他交易出去可能更容易，因为现在的薪资数字还比较低。
I think it is probably easier to move him just because the number is low right now.
球队都不太愿意接手超长年限的合同。
The teams are not excited about taking on super long term money.
要想摆脱他，肯定得搭上不少资产价值。
It's definitely going to cost asset value to get off of him.
不管你怎么安排这笔交易，哪怕是个大交易，比如说换成卡瓦伊·伦纳德之类的，假设卡瓦伊的交易对象不是布兰登·英格拉姆，而是奎克利和皮特尔，那你至少得加一个选秀权才能接手皮特尔的合同，说不定还得更多。
Whatever context you put them in a deal, even if it's a bigger deal, let's say that they go do Kawhi Leonard or something, let's say the deal for Kawhi is not Brandon Ingram, let's say it's Quickly and Pirtle, You're going to have to add in one extra pick to take on the Pirtle money at least, if not more than that.
所以要解释清楚这一点，简单来说，如果皮特尔现在进入自由市场，我觉得他大概能拿到一份三年的中产合同。
So the easiest way to explain this too is so Pirtle, if he hit the open market right now, Pirtle probably gets a full mid level, I would say, for three years.
对吧？
Right?
我可能会低一点，但差不多吧。
I would go a little bit lower, but sure.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得他是个首发中锋。
I think he's a starting center.
他可能是NBA里排名倒数十名左右的首发中锋，但确确实实是NBA的首发中锋。
He's probably a bottom 10 starting center in the NBA, but he's a starting center in the NBA.
这些球员都能拿到中产合同。
Those guys get mid levels.
我只想说，我担心他正在快速下滑，我对皮特尔的顾虑就在这儿。
Here's all I'd say is I worry that he's aggressively My worry with Pirtle is he's aggressively trending down.
这算是我唯一的顾虑了，不过也对。
So that would be my only hang up, but sure.
明白。
Yeah.
假设他的合同现在大概超了三千万美元，大致这个数。
So let's say that he's probably $30,000,000 underwater, that contract, ballpark.
到了这个金额，价值已经超过一个首轮签了。
At that number, it's more than a first round pick.
甚至比第19顺位还高。
It's more than number 19.
差不多快到第19顺位了，我觉得值一个半到两个首轮签。
It's probably closing in on 19 It's somewhere between two first round picks and one first round pick to me.
如果我是多伦多，我绝对不会把两个首轮签搭上把他送走。
If I'm Toronto, I'm definitely not getting off of Pirtle attaching two first round picks to him.
这主意太糟了。
That's a terrible idea.
但要是真要挑一个首轮签来交易，其实还是有几种方式，让我愿意放走皮特尔的，我觉得。
But once you start trying to figure out the one first round pick, there's at least some There are some constructions where I could part with Pirtle at that price point, I think.
对我来说，我更愿意留着他。
I think for me, I would rather just hold onto him and
这说法挺合理的，说实话。
It's a fair enough call, honestly.
我完全理解。
I totally get it.
尤其是如果我觉得他还能当首发，哪怕他只是NBA前30的中锋。
Especially if I think I can even get starter even if if he's a top 30 center in the NBA.
如果我能让他首发，上场二十分钟，跟CMB和梅穆·卡拉什维利轮换，我觉得我现在就该留着他，先撑过这两年再说。
Like, if I can if I can start him and play him twenty minutes and, you know, whatever, and and he has a rotation with CMB and and Memu Kalashvili, I think I'm just gonna hold on to him for now and hope that I can get through two years with him.
而且，如果几年后我能把他当成三千万美元的到期合同来交易，那也不错。
And then if I can use him as $30,000,000 of expiring money in a deal in a couple years from now.
我知道这么做风险不小，萨姆。
I understand there's a lot of risk with that, Sam.
我理解那些持不同意见的人。
I understand people who disagree.
说实话，我确实会这么想。
Like, I I truly would.
我觉得还是保留我的资产更好。
I think I would rather just keep my assets.
我的选秀权情况挺干净的，我很喜欢这一点。
My draft pick situation is is pretty clean, I like that.
如果非得交易谁，对我来说，应该是BI或者IQ。
And if I'm moving anybody for me, I think if I'm moving anybody, it's BI or IQ.
我们越聊越觉得，除非有特别吸引我的选项出现，否则我不会在常规赛开始前就带着这套阵容加上第19顺位签上场。
Like, I think that's kind of and the more we've talked about it, I I don't know that I'm not unless something comes to me that I really like, I don't know that I just don't go into the regular season with this roster plus pick 19.
总的来说，Bryce，我也觉得是这样。
Ultimately, Bryce, I think that's where I landed too.
我也这么想。
I think so.
最可能的结果是，他们会交易掉格雷迪·迪克，用掉第19顺位签，留下萨兰德罗，可能续约谢德，也可能续约巴雷特，最后就带着这套阵容进入下个赛季。
Most likely outcome here is that they move Grady Dick, they use 19, they retain Salandro, maybe you extend Shedd, maybe you extend Barrett, and you really just move into the team or move into the next year with this team at the end of the day.
我觉得这正是我会做的。
I think that's what I would do.
然后到了交易截止日，再重新评估一下。
And then obviously you revisit at the deadline.
我觉得这大概没错。
I think that's probably right.
Bryce，关于猛龙队我们就聊这些，对吧？
Bryce, I think that's all we got on the Raptors, right?
就这些——
That's-
不，咱们得聊聊第19顺位。
No, we got to talk pick 19.
对啊，我们有第19顺位。
Oh, we have pick 19.
我真是糊涂了。
I'm an idiot.
我们有个首轮签，就在这里。
We have pick we have a first round pick here.
第19顺位有没有适合多伦多猛龙队的球员？
Is there a guy that makes sense for the Toronto Raptors at pick 19?
明白了。
Okay.
那我们到底想找什么样的球员？
So what what are we looking for here?
我觉得，要是能挑个正值巅峰的控卫就挺好的。
Like, I feel like prime point guard were pretty good.
内线球员，你觉得怎么样？
Big man, are we feeling good?
我觉得咱们可以再补一个侧翼，萨姆。
To me, I I think I would wanna add another wing to the room, Sam.
是的。
Yeah.
不是最理想的。
Not the best
我不反对。
I'm not opposed.
我在季后赛里特别看好雅各比·沃尔特。
I really like Jacoby Walter in the playoffs.
我觉得他确实有几场表现不错。
I thought that he had some positive moments.
卡梅隆·卡爾不可能掉到这儿，但如果他根本不在这个顺位范围了，咱们能达成共识吗？
Cameron Carr's not gonna fall there, but I would take If Cameron Carr is just, like, not in this range anymore, would we agree?
我觉得这已经是最低档了。
I think top like, I think that this is, like, the bottom end.
如果卡梅隆·卡尓排在第19位，我一点都不意外。
It wouldn't stun me if Cam Carr got the 19.
我觉得卡梅隆·卡尓对他们来说会是绝佳选择。
I I would love Cam Carr for them.
我觉得卡梅隆·卡尓在防守端的风格——那种干扰力、运动能力和臂展，正好契合他们的需求。
I think because I think what Cam Carr, like, does defensively also would fit well with them in terms of, like, the disruption and the athleticism and the length and all of that.
所以我觉得他真是个不错的人选。
So I think that would be a a really good name
对他们来说确实很合适。
for them.
我对卡梅隆的防守能力没那么看好，跟很多人看法不一样。
I'm less enthusiastic about Cam's defense than some people seem to be.
哦，不会吧。
Oh, no.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
我想说清楚一点。
I I I wanna be clear.
我也是这么想的。
Like, I I am as well.
我只是觉得，对于一支喜欢抢断、制造干扰的球队来说，卡姆确实挺合适。
I just think that it for a team that does like to play in passing lanes and be disruptive and all of that, I think Cam does
他确实做得不错。
those does well.
他确实擅长这些。
He does those things.
我和卡姆·卡爾防守体系里的大多数人完全不同。
I I am very different than most people on Cam Carr's defense as well.
我只是说，对这支队伍来说，这些特点可能很合适，我觉得他们应该会看重他的一些能力。
I'm just saying for this particular team, I think it could fit like, I think that they could value some of those things that he does.
对我来说，关键是要找一个至少有投篮能力的人。
I think the key for me is I want somebody who can shoot at least I has potential to
我同意。
would agree with
这对我来说是个非常重要的考量。
That's a really critical step for me here.
我觉得他们到最后其实对谁都没那么挑剔，只要这名球员至少有投篮潜力就行。
I kind of think that they're just open to whoever falls at the end of the day as long as that player at least has potential to shoot to me.
像杰登·昆坦斯这样的人也很有意思。
Even somebody like Jaden Quaintance, that would be really fun.
身高六英尺九寸，臂展惊人，防守能力超强，而且非常积极。
Six foot nine, incredible length, unbelievable defender, super aggressive defender.
你能想象他和科林·默里·博尔斯、斯科蒂·巴恩斯一起打球吗？
Can you imagine him and, like, Colin Murray Boyles and Scottie Barnes?
我知道大家总说想要能投篮的人，但一个防守极其积极的球员对我来说真的很有价值。
I know that it's just said, like, I want someone who can shoot, but, like, wildly aggressive defender makes a ton of sense to me.
我觉得像本内特·斯特尔茨这样的后卫，也完全值得考虑。
I mean, some of the guards I think you can make a case for Bennett Sturz.
克里斯蒂安·安德森也完全可以入选讨论范围。
I think you can make a case for Christian Andersen.
如果顶尖后卫中有人掉到后面，那他们完全有理由选他。
I think that you could certainly make a case for if any of the top end guards fall.
拜隆对他们来说会是个有趣的选择，因为他在大一的时候就展现出了他们看重的防守特质。
Bylon would be kinda interesting for them insofar as in his freshman year, he showed some of the defensive aspects that they tend to like.
到了大二，他就没怎么表现出来了。
In the sophomore year, he really didn't.
我对这三位后卫都没意见，比如凯姆·卡爾。
I don't mind any of those three guards, Cam Carr.
我觉得这个思路挺合理的。
I think that makes sense to me.
我是说，克里斯·塞纳克这个人怎么样？
I mean, like, the idea of Chris Cenack?
我正想说这个呢。
That's what I was gonna say.
塞纳克，如果你觉得他能拉开空间的话。
Cenack, if you think he can space the yeah.
这完全是个长期工程。
It's just such a project.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得他现在离能打NBA比赛还差得远呢。
Like, I think he's, like, nowhere near being able to play NBA minutes right now.
我这边的想法是，咱们刚才聊过， basically 就是沿用现在的阵容。
So my thing with that would be we just talked about them essentially running it back with this roster.
如果你留着皮特尔、CMB，还有斯科蒂，我觉得问题不大。
If you run it back with all of Pirtle, CMB, I think and Scottie, obviously, I think you're okay.
嘿。
Like, hey.
先搁置一年，把情况摸清楚，明年再回头看进展如何。
Take a year, figure this out, and then we'll revisit this and see where it's at next year.
就算只有19胜，我也不觉得这有什么不好。
I I I wouldn't hate that even at 19.
那如果埃蒙达到那个阶段了呢？
What about Eamon if he got to that point?
总的来说。
Just in general.
听我说
Look,
我觉得Eamon根本没可能
I think there's no chance Eamon
哦，这样啊。
is Oh, okay.
说实话，这真让我震惊。
Yeah, that would blow my mind to be honest with you.
我觉得有人会认为Eamon的潜力更接近那个水平，而不是我预测的选秀顺位。
And I say that it's somebody who has Eamon much closer to that range than where I think he's gonna get drafted.
我个人觉得他不在乐透区，但我也觉得他不会掉出去。
I do have him outside of the lottery on my board personally, but yeah, I don't think he falls.
我能想象球队确实会喜欢他。
I can see a world where they like him for sure.
就是个能运球、传球、投篮的大个侧翼。
It's just like a big dribble pass shoot wing.
19号位选内特，是个潜在的高风险高回报的选择。
At 19, I would love Nate Aiming at 19, is a potential upside swing.
就我个人而言，我觉得他该在第14顺位。
I have him at 14 for what it's worth.
我觉得14顺位至少还算合理，毕竟……
I just I thought 14 was at least close enough to at least like, hey.
他会不会掉下去呢？
Is there a potential drop?
但听起来，NBA球队对他的评价似乎
But it sounds like maybe the NBA is
比我认为的乐透区位置要高一些。
a little bit higher on this on
比我觉得他会去的地方要高。
him than
他可能会在乐透区被选中。
think he's gonna go on the lottery.
是的。
Yeah.
我只是觉得，像卡里姆·洛佩兹这样的球员，我们并不看好他。
I I just think a name like Karim Lopez, a guy we don't do or don't like for them.
如果他能投篮，我会更看好他。
If he could shoot, I'd be a lot more enthusiastic.
对。
Yeah.
你能看出他年轻，身材高大又强壮。
Because you can see the youth and he's big and physical.
但他真的不擅长防守。
It's just like he really doesn't guard.
是啊，投篮能力确实是个大问题，得慢慢培养。
Yeah, the shooting is just going to be a project.
说实话，我觉得塞纳克比洛佩兹更有潜力。
I like Senac more as a upside swing for them than Lopez, to be honest.
我同意他们的看法。
I would agree for them.
没错。
Yep.
是的。
Yeah.
在我看来，问题可能出在控卫上。
To me, it's probably the guards.
可能更应该是菲隆，奥科里也是个挺有意思的选择。
It's probably more Phylon, Okorie would be another one that would be kind of fun there.
但他们已经有奎克利和谢德这两个出色的控卫了，对吧？
But again, they have two really good guards in Quickley and Shed, right?
所以你是打算让他们抽到那个我特别希望他们选的人吗？我觉得本内特·斯特尔斯特别适合他们，因为你完全可以让他和谢德一起上场。
So are you going to play like The guy that I would love to fall to them and the guy that I think makes a lot of sense for them is Bennett Sturts Because I think you could play Sturts and Shed together.
我觉得克里斯蒂安·安德森和谢德没法一起打。
I don't think you can play Christian Andersen and Shed together.
我不太想让科里和谢德一起上场。
I wouldn't love playing a Corey and Shed together.
我倒是好奇，斯塔茨个头够不够大，投篮技术够不够好，能不能让这套组合行得通。
I do wonder if Sturts is just big enough and just skilled enough as a shooter to where you could make that work.
是的。
Yeah.
对，我同意。
No, I agree.
没错，我觉得斯塔茨挺适合他们的。
Yeah, I think STERTS would make a lot of sense.
普雷斯顿，我们还没聊到戴伦·斯温。
Preston We haven't talked Dalen Swain.
戴伦·斯温在各方面可能最符合他们这些年看重的特质。
Dalen Swain probably ticks the most boxes in terms of what they've valued over the years.
就是能运球、能传球、能投篮，身材高大的侧翼球员。
It's like dribble, pat, shoot, wing with size.
Preston，是的。
Preston Yeah.
对我来说，如果你不打算续约RJ·巴雷特，或者在那边做点别的调整，那我觉得——虽然我以前从来没拿RJ·巴雷特当过参考对象，但这么一说，我发现他们的打法确实有相似之处，至少在我看来，他们在NBA层面的表现可能会很像。
And to me, if you weren't gonna extend RJ Barrett and maybe make a move there or something like that, it's a very, like I mean, if I've never used RJ Barrett as a comp for him, but now that I say it, like, I think that there's some similarities there in their games or at least how I think their games are gonna portray at the NBA level.
当然不是说必须一对一找替代者，不过我觉得选个侧翼确实挺合适的。
Not that they have to draft one for one replacements, but yeah, I think swing could make sense for sure.
是的。
Yeah.
我喜欢这个想法。
I like it.
好吧。
Okay.
你让我选一个，我倒是觉得Sturts对他们来说最有可能。
I mean, you made me pick one guy, I kind of like Sturts for them of the most likely outcome.
对我来说，Dalen Swain比Bennett Sturts更有潜力。
I think Dalen Twain is a better prospect for me than Bennett Sturts.
但我觉得斯特鲁特有可能在第19顺位被选中，而且他的风格很符合我心目中球队需要的类型。
But think Sturte has that combo of probably being available at 19 and being a pretty good fit for what I would like to see them have on the roster.
对。
Yep.
我挺喜欢这个选择的。
No, I like that.
我觉得塞纳克也是个不错的选择，尤其是如果他们打算留下雅各布·珀特尔和马穆克·卡拉什维利，给新秀一年时间适应联盟的话。
I think Senak is a good call as well, especially if they're keeping Jakob Pertle and Mamouk Kalashvili and can just give them a year to integrate into the league.
是的。
Yeah.
我们对以赛亚·埃文斯和里奇·桑德斯这些球员没兴趣。
And we're we're not in on, like, the Isaiah Evans, Richie Saunders.
我本来就想提一下。
So I was gonna bring it up.
对我来说
Like, to me
我觉得这价格对这两个人来说太高了。
I think I think this is too high for those guys.
没错。
Exactly.
我本来想说的是，如果他们想换位置，比如有人掉到他们不想选的位置，而另一方却愿意为了某种原因往上换，那如果他们最后能在二十七八顺位左右，艾萨亚·埃文斯和里奇·桑德斯会是两个非常不错的选择。
So all I was going to say is if they wanted to trade back, like if somebody was falling that they didn't want to take, that somebody was willing to trade up for for whatever reason and they wanted to go back, Isaiah Evans, Richie Saunders, I think would be two really good names if they ended up back in the mid to late twenties.
还有一点值得注意的是，艾伦·格雷夫斯目前对这个计划还没有明确态度。
Well, the other thing worth noting too is Alan Graves is not committed to the process one way or another.
这是在录音时的情况。
At time of recording.
我对格雷夫斯并不特别看好。
I'm not a massive Graves fan.
说实话，我也说不准。
I can like I don't know.
但我能想象，这种情况也有可能行得通。
Like, I can see a world where this is a situation where that works.
他大学时打的是更积极的防守。
A more aggressive defense, he played a much more aggressive defense in college.
他能投一点篮。
He can shoot a little bit.
我对格雷夫斯的评价没这么高，所以让我在这里选他，我真有点难下决心。
I just don't have this high of a grade on Graves, so it would be really hard for me to take Graves here.
但我觉得，如果把他当成四号位，他确实具备高智商、位置型身材这些猛龙队一向看重的特点，虽然说这球员风格有点特别。
But I do think that he ticks a lot of the high IQ positional size at the four, if you think he's a four, kind of a weird player, frankly, boxes that the Raptors have tended to value.
我能理解这种看法。
I can see that, would say too.
我能想象这种情况确实可能发生。
Can see a world where that's the spot.
当然。
Sure.
不，我觉得这么说挺有道理的。
No, I think that makes sense.
如果他留着，考虑到球员数量，我觉得最后大概会排在他前面三十名左右。
If he stays in and with the amount of players I guess it depends on like, I probably are gonna end up with the top 30 on him.
如果他留下，而其他人走了，我猜他大概就在三十名上下。
If if he stays in and then other guys leave at my guess is I end up with him right around 30.
所以。
So
是的。
Yeah.
如果让我猜的话，我大概会把他排在二十八到三十名之间。
Like, I will probably have him somewhere 28 to 30, if you made me guess.
不过，我对他的评价比有些人要低一些。
But again, I'm lower on him than some people seem to be.
从理论上讲，他具备控球、传球、投篮这些能力，虽然他实际运球并不算好。
He ticks a lot of the boxes in terms of theoretically dribble pass shoot, even though he doesn't really dribble that well.
他移动中投篮一般，但站定后投篮还挺准的。
Doesn't shoot it really off movement, but can shoot from a standstill pretty well.
他在防守上很积极，擅长切断传球路线，手眼协调能力出色。他在圣克拉拉打的是那种积极逼抢、快速回防的体系，这和多伦多的做法不一样，但你能看出，球队可能会看重他带来的这些特质。
Defensively, aggressive, gets into passing lanes, really good hand eye coordination, played in aggressive show and recover scheme at Santa Clara that you can it's different than what Toronto does to be clear, but you can see a world where they would value what he brings, think.
说实话，我觉得这可能是格雷夫斯目前最符合他特点的定位了。
This is probably ticks the most boxes spot for Graves that I've been able to think of so far, to be honest.
没错，我觉得说得通。
No, I think that tracks.
我觉得这对他们来说非常合适。
I think that makes a lot of sense for them.
明白了。
Okay.
布莱斯，跟大家说说你在哪里能看得到你的内容。
Bryce, tell the people where they can find your work.
跟大家讲讲现在的情况吧。
Tell the people what's going on.
好的。
Yeah.
我在 Twitter 和 Blue Sky 上的 Motor City Hoops，还有他们的 Substack 账号上发内容，正在做一系列关于活塞队休赛期自由球员和潜在交易目标的分析。
At Motor City Hoops on Twitter, on Blue Sky, Motor City Hoops Substack, where I have a series looking at off season free agents and potential trade targets for the Pistons.
内容虽然以活塞队为主，但其实是对球员的详细拆解。
It it's a little bit Pistons focused, but it's a breakdown of players.
即使是猛龙队的球迷，也可能觉得有意思。
Even Raptors fans might be interested in.
接下来一个月，你们可以持续关注我的更新。
You can check that out as I go throughout the next month.
另外，还有 Game Theory 的 Substack，那里有各种视频分析、选秀专题，所有你需要的选秀内容都在那儿，还有休赛期前瞻、季后赛现场直播等等。
And then, obviously, the Game Theory Substack where you can see all sorts of video breakdowns and draft shows and all of the draft content you need on the Game Theory Substack, along with here are off season previews and live shows covering the playoffs and everything else.
去 The Athletic 看吧。
Go to The Athletic.
帮个忙，去 The Athletic 支持一下我。
Keep me employed over there.
我们过几天再回来。
We will be back in a couple of days.
我觉得这个可能周五才会发布，所以这个周末可能就没法更新这些季前预览了。
I think this might go up on Friday maybe, so not sure that we'll have the weekend with these off season previews.
但gametheorycmv.substack.com才是你获取所有选秀内容的最佳渠道。
But gametheorycmv.substack.com, that is the best place to get all of the content you need for the draft.
那里已经发布了大量我们节目最后提到的球员详细分析。
We have so many player breakdowns up there of all the guys that we talked about at the end of the show.
请一定去那里看看。
So go there please.
我们大概下周一回来。
We will be back on, what, probably Monday.
这应该是我们的安排，具体还得看这个视频什么时候发布。
I think that that's the plan, depending on when this goes up.
如果周四发出来，我们就周五回来。
If this goes up on Thursday, we'll be back Friday.
要是周五才发布，那我们就下周一回来。
If it goes up on Friday, it'll be back Monday.
如果周一发布，那我们就周二再见。
If it goes up on Monday, it'll be back Tuesday.
我们会搞定的。
We'll figure it out.
那先这样，咱们很快再聊。
Until next time, we'll talk soon.
再见。
Bye.
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