为什么资产价格持续上涨？

好了，欢迎回到加里的经济学。

Okay, welcome back to Gary's Economics.

今天我们要讲讲，为什么资产价格一直在涨。

Today, are going to explain why asset prices keep going up.

你可能以为我会分析本地选举的结果，但我这一周都在法国推广我的新书，所以今天这段视频其实是上周拍的，内容源于一个你可能知道、也可能不知道的疯狂情况——就在上周一，4月27号，还有周二4月28号，也就是我拍这段视频的前几天，美国股市创下了历史新高。你先缓一缓，好好想想这件事——不只是美国，今天日本股市也创下了全球历史最高点。

Okay, you're probably expecting me to do a breakdown of the local election results, but I've been in France all week promoting my book, so you are getting this video which I shot last week, which is inspired by the pretty insane situation which you may or may not be aware of, which is that last week on both Monday the twenty seventh and Tuesday April 28, are just a couple of days ago and I'm shooting now, The US stock market hit a new all time high, and just sit with that for a second, not just The US stock market, the Japanese stock market hit a new global all time high today.

我现在是周三早上，4月29号，如果你之前没注意到这一点，那这是你第一个必须知道的关键信息。

I'm shooting this on Wednesday morning, twenty ninth, and this I think is for anyone who hasn't didn't know this, this is the first thing you need to know.

我们正身处一场明显以摧毁经济为目标的战争中，说白了，伊朗的主要意图就是拖垮全球经济。

We're sitting here in the middle of like a war which has been focused on destroying the economy, that is, you know, the basically Iranian sort of primary plan is to like damage the global economy.

我们原本预期西方世界的生活水平会大幅下滑。

We are expecting to see like a pretty significant collapse in living standards all around the Western world.

不只是西方，而是全球都会如此。

Well, not just the Western world, the entire world.

但奇怪的是，尽管经济被有意地破坏，生活水平被刻意压低，全球股市却反而涨到了历史最高点，这不光是美国和日本，其他地方也一样。

And yet, despite this like collapse, intentional destruction of the economy, intentional collapsing of living standards, Global stock markets are like in many cases the highest they've ever been and it's not just Japan and The US, right.

所以你看，日本和美国都创了历史新高。

So you know, Japan and The US all time highs.

德国股市今年居然没跌，基本持平。

Germany stock market is not even down on the year, it's flat on the year.

英国股市，富时100指数，一年涨了21%，我再挨个说一遍。

The UK stock market, FTSE one hundred is up 21% in a year, I'll just go through them yet.

法国涨了11%，澳大利亚涨了2%，西班牙涨了？这可能吗？

France up 11%, Australia is up 2%, Spain is up can that be right?

西班牙居然涨了32%，要知道，就在一年前，这些市场多数已经处在历史高点了。

Spain is up 32% and you know these are one year moves from a situation where even one year ago most of these stock markets were at all time highs.

不只是股市，黄金价格也是。

It's not just the stock market of the gold price.

黄金简直疯了。

Gold has gone absolutely mental.

过去两年，黄金价格上涨了近98.5%。

Gold has gone up 98 and a half percent in the last two years.

过去两年里，白银价格涨了174%。

The silver price has gone up a 174% in the last two years.

我们正身处一场巨大的经济危机之中，但看到的却是全球所有资产价格、所有股市都在疯狂上涨，很多人对此感到困惑，因为大家普遍认为，经济好的时候股市才会上涨。

So, we're sitting here, in the midst of like an enormous economic crisis and what we are seeing is like all global asset prices, all global stock markets like doing incredibly well and a lot of people are confused about this because people have generally been led to believe, and there is a general assumption that when the economy goes good, stock markets go up.

股市上涨，说明经济状况良好。

When stock markets go up, it's because the economy is good.

经济不好，股市就会下跌。

When the economy is bad, stock markets go down.

股市下跌，就意味着经济出了问题。

If stock markets go down, that means the economy is bad.

可我们现在却正处于近来最明显的一场经济危机之中。

And yet here we are in in the midst of like probably the most obvious piece of economic like that's we've seen in a long time.

股市却一路飙升。

Stock market's going through the roof.

我们会告诉你这背后到底发生了什么。

We are going to explain to you what is happening.

首先得说，这根本不是什么新鲜事。

So the first thing to say is, like, this is not new.

我现在是2026年跟你们聊，正赶上一场经济危机，结果股市反而一路飙升。

So I'm talking to you now in 2026 in the midst of one economic crisis that appears to be pushing stock markets up.

五年前我们经历了新冠疫情，那也是一场巨大的经济危机。

And obviously, five years ago, we had COVID, which was another enormous economic crisis.

新冠疫情对资产价格的长期影响是什么？

And what was the long term effect of COVID on asset prices?

黄金、股票、房产，全都涨了。

Gold, stocks, housing, they all went up.

2011年的主权债务危机推高了资产价格，2008年的金融危机、雷曼倒闭，还有那场席卷全球的风暴，最终也都让资产价格涨了上去。

Twenty eleven sovereign debt crisis pushed asset prices up and 2008, obviously the the, credit crisis, the Lehman shock, the massive February in the long run pushed asset prices up.

所以，到底发生了什么？

So, you know, what what is happening?

为什么会出现这种完全违背常理的现象？

Why is it that we have this thing happening, which is like totally the opposite of what is supposed to happening?

为什么每次一发生经济危机——比如伊朗战争、新冠疫情、2008年危机——资产价格反而上涨，而不是像我们预期的那样下跌？

Why does it seem to be that whenever there is an economic crisis, Iran war, COVID, two thousand and eight crisis, why do they always push asset prices up when we expect them to push asset prices down?

大概十年前，开始出现一种说法：2008年，如果你不太了解，我感觉自己都老了，那是一场巨大的信贷危机。

So a narrative was starting to form on this sort of like ten years ago, which was that so 2008, for anyone who doesn't know, I guess I'm getting older now, 2008 was like a massive credit crisis.

结果发现，至少在西方世界，几乎所有银行都把钱借给了根本还不起的人。

It turned out that basically like all of the banks, at least in the Western world, had lent money to people who couldn't pay it back.

银行本来会破产，信贷全面冻结，没人能贷到款，政府不得不出手救助，经济和生活水平大幅下滑，失业率飙升。

The banks would have gone bankrupt, the banks stopped lending, nobody could get a loan, governments had to like go in and bail them out, there's a massive collapse in the economy and living standards, a massive spike in unemployment.

大家普遍认为，这对经济来说是灾难性的。

It's generally accepted that this was bad for the economy.

三年后，2011年又爆发了主权债务危机，主要是欧洲各国政府被市场和经济学家质疑偿债能力，许多国家被迫实施紧缩政策。

After that, three years later, we had the twenty eleven sovereign debt crisis, which was a crisis where basically primarily European governments found that traders and economists thought that they couldn't pay their debts back, and, governments in many cases were forced to do austerity.

英国当时已经在紧缩，但最明显的例子是希腊，被迫大幅削减公共支出。

The UK was already doing austerity, but most obviously Greece was forced to do enormous public spending cuts.

这同样对经济造成了严重打击。

This was also bad for the economy.

大家普遍认为这些危机对经济有害，但后来出现了一种说法，解释为什么资产价格反而上涨，其实很简单：这些危机导致利率被大幅压低。

So it was generally accepted that these crises were bad for the economy, but a narrative started to form about why they pushed asset prices up, was quite simple, which was that these crises caused interest rates to be pushed down.

先说说利率是怎么回事。

So, some context on interest rates.

利率就是你借钱要付的利息，或者你放贷能拿到的回报。

Interest rates, which is the amount that you pay to borrow money, the amount you get for lending money.

在2008年之前，也就是雷曼危机之前，西方国家的利率普遍在4%到5%左右，比现在稍微高一点。

Before 2008, before the Lehman crisis, they were at levels generally in the West, are similar to where they are now, sort of 4%, 5%, maybe a little bit higher than they are now.

2008年危机爆发后，政府和央行这些负责管理经济的机构，主要应对措施就是迅速把利率砍到接近零的水平。

And, when 2008 happened, the main sort of systemic response, the main response by governments and central banks, the institutions who are supposed to manage our economy was to aggressively slash interest rates to effectively zero.

2008年是这样，新冠期间也是这样。

This happened in 2008, it also happened during COVID.

你看利率被大幅压到零，后来大家普遍接受的说法是，尽管经济疲软，但2008年雷曼危机之后资产价格能长期走强，正是因为利率被压得实在太低了。

So you see this massive reduction in interest rates to zero and this generally came to be accepted that the reason that asset prices did well in the long run after the two thousand and eight Lehman crisis, despite the economy being weak, that interest rates were massively, massively reduced.

在经济学理论里，利率和资产价格之间本来应该有非常紧密的关联。

Now, sort of in economic theory, there's supposed to be like quite a tight relationship between interest rates and asset prices.

我来解释一下原因，好吧？

I'll explain why, right?

当你考虑投资时，最简单的做法就是把钱存进储蓄账户，因为你清楚，存进去后银行每年会给你5%的收益。

So, when you look at an investment, the most simple investment you can make is to say put your money in a savings account because you know you put it in there and the bank's going to say like, we're going to give you 5% a year.

假设你把一百万英镑存进储蓄账户，年利率5%，那每年就能拿到五万英镑的利息。

So say that you put a million pound in the savings account at 5% a year, you are going to get your 5% a year, which is £50,000 a year.

现在，假设你也在考虑另一种投资方式——买一套房子用来出租，你找到了一栋不错的豪华住宅，每年能租出五万英镑的租金，那你心里就会想：这房子值多少钱？

Now, let's assume you're also looking at an alternative investment, which is you want to buy buy to let property and you found yourself like a nice big house, big luxury house that you can rent out for £50,000 a year And you're thinking, okay, much should I pay for it?

你知道，如果把一百万英镑存进银行，每年能拿五万英镑利息，而这栋房子的租金也是每年五万英镑，回报一样。

Well, you know that if you put £1,000,000 into a bank account, you're going to get £50,000 a year, which is the same return as this rental property.

所以你会觉得，既然这两个投资的年收益差不多，那这栋房子的价格也应该接近一百万英镑才合理。

So, you would imagine since both of these investments yield a similar return of £50,000 a year, this house should also be worth maybe something close to 1,000,000.

这虽然是个简化例子，但道理是通的：如果利率是5%，那每年能租出五万英镑的房子，理应和存一百万英镑拿五万利息的银行账户价值相当。

That's a simplified example, but it makes sense right, know if interest rates are 5%, then a house that gives $50 a year rent should be roughly equivalent to an bank account that gives £50,000 a year interest in rent.

所以，如果利率在5%左右，这栋房子的价值大概就是一百万英镑。

Okay, so this house should be worth about £1,000,000 if rates are about 5%.

现在我们假设利率低得多，只有1%。

Now, let's assume rates are much lower, 1%.

如果我把一百万英镑存进银行，每年只能拿到一万英镑，真够惨的。

Now, if I put my £1,000,000 in a bank account, I'm only going to get £10,000 a year, poor me.

假设同一栋房子还在市场上，租金依然能拿到五万英镑。

Now, let's assume that the same house is on the market and it's still able to get something like £50,000 rent.

在这种情况下，我会愿意花一百万英镑买这栋房子吗？

In this example, would I be willing to pay a million pounds for this house?

现在一百万英镑存银行，每年只能赚一万英镑。

Well, a million pound is only going to get me £10,000 in a bank account now.

要想拿到五万英镑的收益，我得把钱存进银行五倍的金额，也就是五百万英镑。

So in order to get £50,000, the amount I would have to put in a bank account to get £50,000 now is going to be five times bigger, this is equivalent to £5,000,000.

理论上讲，这虽然是个非常简化的例子，但如果利率是5%，年租金五万英镑的房子值一百万；但如果利率降到1%，同样的房子就该值五百万——涨了五倍，简直惊人。

So in theory, and again this is a very simplified example, if interest rates are 5% then a £50,000 a year rent rental house should be worth about 1,000,000, but if interest rates are 1%, that same £50,000 a year house should be worth about 5,000,000, which is enormous, five times bigger.

所以我想，这其实说明了一点，当然这还是个简化模型——利率下调，尤其是大幅下调，理论上会显著推高资产价格，特别是像房产或盈利型股票这类有稳定回报的资产。

So I think what this shows you, just basically and again, this is a very simplified example, this shows you that in theory interest rate reductions, especially big interest rate reductions should have in theory the power to push asset prices, especially assets that have a return like housing or like profitable stocks up really a lot.

好吧，这当然很简化，但我只是想让你明白一个基本道理：在经济理论中，利率对资产价格的影响非常剧烈。一旦利率从5%大幅降到1%，你靠存款赚利息就几乎不可能了。

Okay, this is very simplified, but I'm trying to give you the basic understanding that interest rates in economic theory really aggressively affect the price of assets, because if interest rates fall a lot from 5% to 1%, then I can't get an interest on my money anymore.

于是，像房产出租或者盈利公司的股票这类能带来实际回报的资产，突然之间就比现金值钱多了。

So, suddenly other assets, assets that give like real returns like rental property or like a profitable company, a share in a profitable company, suddenly they are worth so much more relative to money.

所以，这其实就是当年解释2008年之后市场表现为何这么好的理论——虽然经济本身非常疲软，甚至你可以说到现在都还没好起来，但至少2008年之后的十年里，人们普遍认为，股市涨得这么好，就是因为利率实在太低了，没人愿意把钱放在储蓄账户里吃零头。

So, this was basically the theory which explained why is it that in that period after 2008 that the economy was really incredibly weak for, well, I mean, you could argue eighteen years because it's still weak now, but let's say that the ten years following 2008, the reason that was sort of given as to why stock markets did so well despite the economy being so weak was very simply interest rates are incredibly low, so nobody wants to have money in a savings account.

大家都想持有实物资产，因为它们能带来高得多的回报。

Everybody wants to hold real assets instead because they give you much more return.

所以，这就是你的说法，对吧？

Okay, so that's your story, right?

这就是你那个简单的解释，说来说去就那套话。

That's your sort of simple story, blah blah blah.

所以，这就是为什么你认为2008年之后资产价格会上涨的原因。

This is why your sort of simple story that this is why asset prices do well after 2008.

但后来发生了一件特别离谱的事，对吧？

But then this crazy thing happened, right?

当时发生了新冠疫情，疫情一开始也导致利率进一步下降，尽管很多地方的利率在疫情前就已经是零了，但能降的利率在疫情期间还是继续下调了，资产价格也跟2008年一样，先跌了一下，然后迅速反弹。

Which was we had COVID and initially COVID also caused interest rates to fall, although in many cases interest rates were already zero even before COVID, but interest rates did fall further where they could during COVID and the asset prices similarly to 2008, they fell initially and then they went up.

但疫情过后，一件更离谱的事发生了——通胀突然飙升，利率也以极快的速度上涨。

But then after COVID, this like really crazy thing happened, which was suddenly inflation spiked and interest rates increased very, very quickly.

疫情前的利率，具体看哪种利率，短期基准利率基本接近零，长期利率大概在1%到1.5%左右。

So, interest rates before COVID were sort of depending on what interest rate you're looking at, you know, base rates close to zero, longer term interest rates maybe one, one and a half percent.

结果没多久，短期利率就涨到了5%，长期利率在很多地方也升到了5%甚至更高。

Very quickly you're seeing base rates go up to 5% and long term interest rates go up to like 5% or maybe more in many cases.

所以疫情时期，我们看到的是经济严重疲软叠加利率急剧上升，按理说资产价格该大跌了，可事实却是，疫情过后资产价格又飞快上涨了。

So in COVID, what we then had was severe economic weakness combined with aggressively rising interest rates, so surely now asset prices are going to fall, but what actually happened after COVID, again asset prices rose really quickly.

这事儿就更奇怪了，简直让人开始怀疑之前那个解释是不是站不住脚。

So, this is like even crazier and I think really perhaps raising some questions about the correctness of the previous narrative.

如果之前的说法是，2008年金融危机和2010年代经济低迷后资产价格大涨，是因为利率暴跌，那怎么解释疫情后经济依然疲软、生活水平下降、利率却大幅上升的情况下，资产价格还是涨得这么猛？

Like if the idea was the reason that asset prices did so well after the economic crisis of two thousand and eight and the economic malaise of the 2010s was because interest rates fell so much, then that does not explain at all why asset prices did so well after COVID when the economy was weak and living standards were weak and also as interest rates rose significantly.

现在我们其实又在伊朗战争中看到类似的情况——这场战争正在我们眼前上演。

And we're seeing the same thing now basically in the Iran war, which is the Iran war, obviously, we're like in the midst of it here and now.

我觉得这对经济和生活水平肯定不利。

I think it is pretty certain it's going to be bad for the economy, bad for living standards.

战争开始以来，利率已经明显上升了，虽然谈不上暴涨，但幅度不小，因为通胀会上升，央行也会提高基准利率。

Interest rates have risen, not enormously, but like pretty significantly since the beginning of the war, because inflation is going to rise and central banks are going to rise base rates.

可奇怪的是，又一次出现了类似新冠时期的状况：利率在涨，经济在下滑，生活水平在下降，但资产价格不但没跌，反而还在上涨——这到底是什么原因？

And yet once again, are seeing the repetition of this like COVID dynamic of interest rates are going up, the economy is going down, living standards are falling and yet asset prices are not falling and maybe even increasing, what's causing that.

我想提出一个观点，来解释过去十八年全球资产价格为何持续飙升，尤其是新冠之后的五六年间。我还想补充一点：我一直准确预测了这些资产价格会上涨。

So, I am going to put forward an argument as to what has been really causing the aggressive increases in asset prices throughout the world, in the last eighteen years, but especially during the last five or six years since COVID and I will to sort of support my argument add that I have consistently correctly predicted that these asset prices would rise.

你们可以去看看我在2020年新冠刚爆发时，最早上传的那段视频，当时我就预测这会引发资产价格的大涨。

If you can watch the first video on this channel that I did in 2020 at the very beginning of COVID predicting it would cause a massive increase in asset prices.

两年前半前，我就做过一个视频，预测即使利率已经很高还在继续上升，资产价格还是会继续猛涨，而我也靠这些预测赚了不少钱。

I did a video about two years ago, two and a half years ago predicting that we would see further aggressive increases in asset prices even though interest rates were high and rising and I made tonnes of money on these predictions.

所以，我觉得我至少有资格来谈谈这些事。

So, I'd like to think that, you know, I have a little bit of a right to speak on these things.

在我看来，一直被忽视、被误解的资产价格上涨推手，其实是财政赤字和财富分配。

In my opinion, what has been under discussed and under understood as a driver of these asset prices is deficits and distribution.

所以，某种程度上，我是在重申我在疫情初期提出的一个观点：当政府出现赤字，或者说任何人出现赤字时，总有人手里的钱会变多。

So, in a sense here, I'm repeating an argument that I made at the beginning of COVID, which is when the government runs a deficit or in essence really anybody runs a deficit, somebody accumulates money.

这其实是我们的货币体系固有的一部分，简单来说就是：我借一大笔钱，然后把它花出去，必然有人手里的钱会因此增加。

And this is basically an intrinsic part of our monetary system, but the way it basically works is like this, know, I borrow a ton of money and then give that money away, somebody has to have more money now quite simply.

可惜的是，这一点很少有人真正理解，而这正是我们陷入当前困境的原因之一。

Think this is something which is unfortunately not well understood and it's one of the reasons why we are in this mess.

要明白这一点，最好的例子就是疫情本身，因为它清晰地展现了这个过程：疫情刚爆发时，我们就知道政府会实施长期封锁。

So, think the clearest sort of way to understand this is to look at COVID itself, because I think it's just such a clear example of this happening, which is at the very beginning of COVID, we knew that governments were going to run very long term lockdowns.

我们知道政府必须补贴人们的工资，也知道政府会通过借贷——或者某种程度上印钞——来筹集巨额资金，然后把这些钱发出去，细节可以讨论，但大方向就是这样。

We knew that governments were going to have to subsidise people's wages and we knew that the way that governments were going to fund that was to essentially borrow or in some cases print, we can argue the details, borrow or print an enormous amount of money and give that money out.

我并不是反对这种政策，但重要的是要意识到，当政府大规模举债时，社会上必然有一部分人会积累起大量财富。

And you know, I'm not necessarily opposed to that policy, it's but important to recognise that when governments do this, when governments run very big deficits, some group of society must accumulate money.

而当赤字大到惊人程度时——疫情时期的赤字就是惊人地庞大。

And when the deficit is enormously big and the deficits in COVID were just like mind blowingly big.

在英国，平均每个成年人拿到的钱差不多有两万英镑。

In The UK it was like £20,000 per adult.

我觉得在美国，每人差不多有四万美元，简直是天文数字。

I think in The US it was like something more like like 40 or $40,000 per adult, crazily huge amounts of money.

政府一旦出现巨额赤字，总有人会因此积累起财富。

When the government runs enormous, enormous deficits, somebody accumulates money.

疫情刚开始的时候，我就做了这些分析，因为我的研究背景是收入分配和不平等。

And I did all this analysis at the beginning of COVID because my background is like distribution and inequality.

我当时最想知道的就是，政府搞这么大的赤字，到底是谁会成为那个拿到钱的人？

All I really wanted to know at the beginning of COVID was who is it going to be that accumulates, that is on the other side of this enormous deficit that will be run by the government?

如果你想看详细的数据，可以去这个频道看第一个视频，我那时一步步追踪过，不过我现在直接告诉你结论。

And if you want to see the details of that, can go and watch the first video on this channel, you can see me following it through, but I'll give you the conclusion.

我的结论是，疫情期间的巨额财政赤字，最终几乎全被各国最富有的人拿走了——英国是这样，你所在的地方大概率也是，除非你住在瑞士。

The conclusion I came to was that these enormous government deficits in COVID were going to end up being accumulated basically by the richest people in the country and that happened here in The UK, but it also happened pretty much wherever you're watching, unless you're watching from Switzerland.

全球几乎每个国家都发生了同样的情况，这让我得出了几个在我看来非常明显的结果。

That happened in basically every single country in the world and that led me to be able to make these like really, in my opinion, like quite obvious conclusions.

既然我们都知道政府会大举举债，而全球最富有的人会囤积巨额现金，那接下来最自然的结果会是什么？

Like if we know that what is going to happen is governments are going to run huge deficits and the richest people in the world are going to start accumulating like unbelievably enormous piles of cash, like what is the obvious consequence of that?

最明显的后果就是，如果你给富人一大笔钱。

The most obvious consequence, if you give, like, rich people an enormous amount of money.

这一点你得明白。

So, it's something you need to understand.

我说的富人，尤其是特别富的人，那些身家上亿英镑、上百亿美元的人。

When I talk about rich people, especially you're talking about very rich people, people with like $10.20, £100,000,000 or billions of dollars.

如果你给这样的人一大笔钱，他们基本上不会怎么花掉。

If you give a large amount of money to somebody with that amount of wealth, they by and large will not spend much of it.

他们的消费不会因此增加多少。

They won't increase their spending much.

真正富有的人并不缺现金。

Very rich people are not very cash constrained.

在大多数情况下，他们早就买得起自己想要的东西了。

They can already sort of buy the things they want in most cases.

如果你给他们一大笔钱，他们会怎么处理？

If you give them an enormous amount of money, what are they going to do?

他们会去买资产。

They're going to buy assets.

这显然是他们最可能做的事。

It's the most obvious thing they're to do.

他们会去买资产。

They are going to buy assets.

比如说，如果现在有人给我一百万英镑，我当天就会拿这笔钱去买等值的资产。

Like if somebody gives me now a £100,000, I will buy that day £100,000 worth of assets.

有钱人就是这么处理他们的钱的。

That is what rich people do with their money.

说实话，这其实很简单地回答了问题：我们应对新冠疫情的方式，和应对2008年金融危机、2011年欧洲债务危机，乃至现在应对伊朗危机的方式，本质上都一样——都是靠政府大规模举债，导致大量现金流入富人手中，而他们把这些钱拿去买了资产。

So, I think really to be honest, like this really quite simply answers the question because the way that we dealt with COVID is in many ways the same way that we dealt with the two thousand and eight financial crisis, the twenty eleven sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the same way we're dealing with the Iran crisis now, which is we tried to fix it by the government running an enormous deficit leading to an accumulation of an enormous amount of cash with richer people, which they use to buy assets.

现在我们已经形成了一套固定的套路，每次危机一来，就重复上演：政府从富人那儿借钱，再把钱还给富人，通过这种大规模的财富再分配来化解危机，结果就是每一次危机过后，富人都会积累起巨额财富。

We really have a like an established playbook now which we can see happens again and again and again and again every time there's a crisis, which is the way that we resolve this is the government borrows a ton of money from the rich and gives that money back to the rich and uses that massive redistribution of wealth to basically resolve the crisis, which means that every single crisis ends up with an enormous amount of money piling up with the rich.

贫富差距急剧扩大，富人的财富和权力大幅增长，而最直接的后果就是资产价格飙升。

Massive increase in equality, massive increase in wealth and power of the rich and the most obvious consequence of that is an increase in asset prices.

我觉得在新冠期间，政府给富人的钱太多了，导致他们的消费增加，反而推高了通胀，这就出现了个有趣的现象——资产价格和利率同时上涨。

I think in COVID what happened was the amount of money given to the rich was so much that it increased the consumption and actually pushed up inflation, which meant that we saw this interesting combination of asset prices going up and interest rates going up at the same time.

当时很多人都对这种情况感到困惑，但我能提前预测到，是因为只要明白富人手里突然多了巨额资金，你就知道这事儿早晚会发生。

And you know, a lot of people were really confused about that when it was happening, but the reason I was able to predict it was because that is exactly what you would expect if you just understand that rich people have been given an enormous amount of money, an enormous amount of money.

第一件事肯定是资产价格上涨，第二件事，如果这笔钱多到连他们的日常消费都带动起来了，通胀就会跟着上升，利率自然也得跟着涨。

The first thing that's going to happen is asset prices will rise and the second thing is if it is sufficiently large amount of money that it even increases their consumption, inflation will go up with it, which means interest rates will go up too.

所以我们才看到了这么反常的一组走势：资产价格在涨，黄金和股票也在一块儿涨。

And that is how we were able to see this really interesting combination of movements, which is asset prices going up, you know, gold and stocks going up at the same time.

按理说这些东西应该往相反方向走，利率一涨，资产价格本该下跌才对。

These things are supposed to move in opposite directions and interest rates going up at the same time, which is supposed to push asset prices down.

这些现象单独看都讲不通，直到你意识到，我们其实是在把巨额资金源源不断地转移给全世界最富有的人。

None of these movements when viewed by themselves make sense until you recognise what we are doing is transferring enormous amounts of money, enormous amounts of cash to the richest people in the world.

那他们拿到这些钱之后会干嘛？

And what are they going to do with that?

他们会加大资产购买。

They're going to increase their purchase of assets.

如果钱够多，他们就会增加消费，这也会推高通胀和利率。

And if the money is enough, they're going to increase their spending, which is going to drive up inflation and interest rates as well.

那面对这种情况，你该怎么应对？

Okay, so how do you react to this?

首先你要明白，资产价格上涨对你并没有好处。

Okay, first thing to say is you need to recognise that asset prices going up is not good for you.

除非你非常富有，否则资产价格上涨对你、对工人、对普通人都不是好事。

Unless you are a very rich person, asset prices going up is not good for you, it is not good for workers, it is not good for ordinary people.

资产价格高，首先意味着你买不起房子，孩子也买不起，连养老金都负担不起。

Expensive assets mean in the first instance, you cannot afford to buy a house, your kids can't afford to buy a house and you can't afford to buy a pension.

这实际上就是把你挤出了资产拥有者的行列，让你失去财务上的安全感。

It basically means you are being squeezed out of asset ownership, you are being squeezed out of financial stability.

特别是当资产价格上涨是因为政府把大量现金直接给了富人，这就越来越会让政府陷入财政困境。

In particular, if the reason that asset prices is going up is because your governments are giving enormous amounts of cash to the rich, then this is going to increasingly push governments into very weak financial positions.

英国的情况已经非常明显了，意大利、希腊，甚至美国，也都在朝这个方向走。

You're seeing this very clearly in the situation of The UK, but it's also happening in places like Italy, places like Greece, even places like The US are going in this direction.

如果你继续这样下去，每次一出危机，政府就给富人大把撒钱，那最终大家都会陷入英国目前的境地——政府根本借不到钱了，金融市场再也不肯贷款给他们，到时候一旦爆发类似现在的危机，政府就彻底束手无策，根本无力保护民众免受经济冲击。

If you keep moving in this direction, where every time you have a crisis, we deal with it by the governments giving a huge amount of money to the rich, you will all end up in situations where we are increasingly seeing the UK government in, where basically they cannot borrow any more money because financial markets will not lend them any more money and then you reach situations where suddenly you have crises like these now and governments are increasingly powerless to defend the population from the economic consequences of things that are happening.

第二点，你得停止把资产价格上涨当成经济强劲的标志。

The second thing is, think you need to stop associating high asset prices with a strong economy.

这种观念在公众心里存在很久了，但过去二十年的事实已经再清楚不过：经济疲软的时候，资产价格反而可能涨得离谱。

This idea has like been in the public consciousness for a long time, but I think it should be by now incredibly clear from the last twenty years that weak economies can and in fact very often do create incredibly expensive assets.

我觉得我们尤其需要开始识别一种新型经济危机，它正变得越来越普遍，那就是由贫富差距不断扩大所引发的经济危机。

And I think in particular, we need to be able to start recognising a particular form of economic crisis, which I think is becoming like the most common and normal form of economic crisis, which is an economic crisis which is primarily being driven by an increase in inequality.

当你看到生活水平下降、资产价格飙升、贫富差距拉大同时发生时，你就该明白，资产价格上涨其实是经济衰退的征兆。就像现在，你看到特朗普明明说：‘看，股市表现多好。’

And when you have this increase in the quality, you see this combination of things which is weakening living standards, increasing asset prices, increasing inequality, you need to start recognising that these increasing asset prices are a symptom of the economic weakening because you have this situation in a moment where you see Donald Trump says it explicitly says oh you know, but look the stock market is doing well.

你要明白，房价高、资产贵、股价涨、金价涨，都是极端不平等直接导致的结果——这种不平等正在把你、你的家人，还有千千万万普通家庭推入贫困。

I think you need to recognise that high house prices, high asset prices, high stock prices, high gold prices are a direct consequence of the kind of extreme inequality that is driving you and your family and ordinary families like yours into poverty.

资产价格昂贵，恰恰是你生活品质下滑的后果。

Expensive assets are a consequence of your falling living standards.

第三点，我觉得特别值得深思，也很有意思：如果你回头看2008年金融危机，或者新冠疫情，还有伊朗战争——虽然那场战争的情况稍微有点不一样。

The third thing that I want to say, which I think is actually really worth sitting and thinking about and I think is really, really interesting, which if you look at crises like 2008, if you look at crises like COVID and the Iran war is maybe like slightly different.

如果一场经济危机可以通过政府大幅举债，并把这笔钱给富人，再用它来保护穷人和普通人的生活水平，那这场危机本质上就只是分配问题。

If an economic crisis can be resolved by governments running a massive deficit and giving that deficit to the rich and using that money to protect the living standards of poor and ordinary people, then that crisis could only ever have been a crisis of distribution.

我觉得这一点特别重要，你得明白。

I think this is a really, really important thing to understand, right?

如果政府能通过向富人借钱、把资产从富人手里拿回来，从而避免你的生活水平下滑，那就说明这些资产根本就没消失。

If the government is able to stop your living standards from being hit by borrowing from the rich people and getting the assets back from the rich people, then that means the assets themselves had never disappeared.

如果真的出现了生产下滑、产能萎缩，那我们根本不可能靠向富人借钱来保住你的生活水平。

If production had really fallen in these situations and productive capacity had really fallen, then we wouldn't have been able to protect your living standards by borrowing from the rich.

向富人借钱，唯一改变的只是财富的分配方式。

All borrowing from the rich ever does is change the distribution.

只要你的生活水平能靠政府调节分配来保护，那这场危机就只能是分配问题。

So, your living standards can be protected by governments managing the distribution, then the crisis could only ever have been a crisis of distribution.

一旦你意识到，政府只要愿意向富人举债，就能解决这些问题，你就该明白，这些生活水平的下降其实是富人强加给你的。

And I think once you start to recognise that problems can be resolved by governments agreeing to go into debt to the rich, then you should also be able to recognise that these living standard problems were being imposed by the rich.

政府去找富人说：别压垮普通人的生活，我们愿意向你们借钱；富人就说：好，那我们就不压垮了，于是生活水平就保住了。

You know, the government goes to the rich and says listen, don't crush living standards, we will agree to go into debt to you and the rich says okay we won't crush living standards and living standards don't get crushed.

这说明了，这些根本就是分配危机，纯粹是分配问题。

What that shows you these are crisis of distribution, these are crisis of distribution.

当你明白这一点，它其实应该成为一种强大的积极力量——我们常常把经济问题看成是道德失败，觉得经济疲软是因为我们管理不善，政府负债是因为我们搞砸了。

I think when you understand that, that can and should be like a really profound source of positivity, because what we often view as these like almost crises of like sin, like our economy is weak because we've managed it badly, our governments are in debt because we've managed it badly.

如果我们意识到政府负债，是因为在努力解决分配不公的问题，那就会明白，其实资源根本就还在那里。

If we recognise that the reason governments are in debt is because they are trying to fix crises of distribution, we can realise that actually the resources are all still there.

政府举债，是因为在应对日益加剧的分配问题。如果我们能解决这些分配问题，又不总是把公共财富让给富人，也不总是让政府向富人借钱，那么经济危机根本就不会发生，也不该存在。

Governments are going into debt because they are trying to deal with growing problems of distribution and if we are able to deal with those distributional problems without consistently giving away government wealth and without consistently the government going in debt to the rich, then these economic crises don't need to happen, these economic crises don't need to exist.

只要解决分配问题，人民的生活水平就不会下滑。所以，一旦你明白了这点，就会看到：如果我们认真对待对富人的征税，任何靠政府向富人借钱就能解决的问题，其实都能通过向富人征税来解决，而不必加剧不平等。

If we deal with the distributional problem then living standards don't fall, So I think once you recognise that, then you can see that if we deal more seriously with the taxation of the riches, any problem that can be resolved by the government going in debt to the rich can also be resolved without the increased inequality by the government taxing the rich.

就这么简单。

It's as simple as that.

这不过是两种不同的资源分配方式而已。

These are just two different ways of managing the distribution of resources.

所以，一旦你真正明白：资产价格上涨是因为不平等加剧，政府债务上升是因为不平等加剧，生活水平下降也是因为不平等加剧，你就会意识到，只要我们遏制不平等的扩大，这一切问题都能迎刃而解。

So I think once you really recognise the reason asset prices are going up is because inequality is increasing, the reason government debt is going up is because inequality is increasing, the reason living standards are falling is because inequality is increasing, then you recognise we can stop all of these things if only we stop inequality from increasing.

住房本不该如此昂贵，普通家庭不该为开暖气、给孩子买饭而发愁。七十年前这根本不是常态，现在却成了常态，只因为我们拉大了贫富差距。只要我们不再加剧这种差距，就能让这种情况重新变得罕见。

Housing does not need to be unaffordable, we do not need to see ordinary families struggling to turn the heating on, struggling to feed their kids, know this was not normal seventy years ago and it is normal now because we increased inequality and we can make it rare again now if we stop increasing that inequality.

所以每当我看到资产价格飙升，我看到的其实是矿井里的金丝雀——它清楚地告诉我们，富人正变得越来越富，而这种增长是由政府不断举债来补贴的，这种模式根本无法长期持续。但与此同时，它也指出了出路：只要我们建立一个更公平的税收体系，对财富多征税，对劳动少征税，就能阻止这些现象恶化。这样就不会出现亿万富翁交的税比保洁员还少，比你还要少的荒唐情况。

So, think when I look at rising asset prices, what I really see is like the canary in the coal mine, which is what this shows us is that the rich are getting richer and richer and richer and richer and that's being subsidised by governments going more and more and more and more into debt in a way that is not long term sustainable, but it also shows us the potential solution, which is we can stop these things from developing if only we create a tax system which taxes rich people more fairly, which taxes wealth more and taxes work less, which stops creating a situation where billionaires pay lower tax than their cleaners, where billionaires pay lower tax than you.

我认为这些问题完全能解决，100%可以解决。

So what I think is this is fixable, this is 100% fixable.

有人会问我，因为我做了这个关于资产价格的视频，那你觉得资产价格还会继续涨吗？

People will ask me because I've done this video about asset prices, well, do I think asset prices will keep going up?

我早就押注它会涨了，毕竟已经涨了这么多，短期内出现大幅回调的可能性当然存在。

I've been betting on it for a long time, they've gone up so much, There's obviously a chance of like big reversals in the short term.

目前价格波动得非常剧烈。

Prices are incredibly volatile right now.

但事实是，我们至今仍在用这种方式应对经济问题——每次危机爆发，包括眼下这场，都会发生什么？

But the fact is, we are still dealing with these economic problems in such a way that every time there's a crisis, including the crisis we're having right now, what happens?

政府赤字扩大，富人却不断积累财富，这太荒谬了。

Government deficits increase and the rich accumulate money and that is absurd.

2008年都过去十八年了，我们怎么还能继续把公共资源和福利体系的钱大量转移给富人呢？

After, you know, eighteen years after 2008, we should not still be dealing with crises in such a way as we massively transfer resources from governments, from welfare states to the rich.

听着，如果你想让经济稳定、生活有保障，就不能容忍贫富差距不断拉大。解决办法就是和我们一起，对财富征税，而不是对劳动征税。

Listen, if you want economies which are stable and provide stable living conditions, you cannot accept continually increasing inequality and the way to do that is to fight with us to tax wealth not work.

非常感谢。

So thanks very much.

把这个视频转给妈妈，告诉朋友和家人，我们正在赢，我们一定会赢。

Send this video to your mum, tell your friends, tell your family we're winning, we're gonna win.

祝你好运。

Good luck.

谢谢。

Thank you.