第12集：鲍勃·普林斯——桥水联合公司联席首席投资官

今天非常荣幸邀请到鲍勃·普林斯做客我们的播客。

Today, I am honored to have Bob Prince on the podcast.

鲍勃是全球最大的对冲基金——桥水基金的联席首席投资官。

Bob is the Co Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.

他职业生涯起步于塔尔萨第一国民银行，负责管理资金部。

Bob started his career at First National Bank in Tulsa, where he headed the Treasury Department.

他于1986年加入桥水，负责统筹公司的投资流程。

He joined Bridgewater in 1986 and is responsible for managing the company's investment process.

在桥水任职期间，他深度参与了公司投资体系和客户策略的全方位构建。

During his tenure at Bridgewater, he has been a critical part in developing all aspects of Bridgewater's investment process and client strategies.

自桥水成立之初，他就一直担任公司管理委员会成员。

Bob has also served on Bridgewater's management committee since inception.

我很期待把这次访谈分享给大家，希望你们会喜欢。

I'm very excited to share this interview with you, and I hope you all enjoy.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢你，鲍勃，能来和我聊天。

Thank you, Bob, for joining me.

我真的很感激。

I really appreciate it.

谢谢你抽出时间。

Thank you for taking the time.

不客气。

Sure.

很高兴能来到这里。

Good to be here.

祝贺你们做成这件事。

Congratulations on doing this.

这个主意真棒。

It's a great idea.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我想从你的童年和早期职业生涯聊起。

I want to start out in your childhood and your early career.

你能跟我讲讲你的童年吗？要理解今天的你，有哪些关键背景是我该了解的？

So tell me a little bit about your childhood and what should I know about it to understand the person you are today?

好吧，让我想想。

Okay, well, let's see.

我在中西部的一个小镇长大的，叫伊利诺伊州的奥斯韦戈。

I grew up in a small town in the Midwest, Oswego, Illinois.

我大概四岁的时候搬去那儿，到现在家里还有亲戚住在那里。

We moved there when I was, I think, four years old and still have family there.

那地方跟金融圈完全没关系。

And it's an environment that wasn't really connected at all to financial markets.

我父母都是老师，我爸在一所社区学院当教练，还管体育事务。

My parents are both teachers, my dad was a coach, athletic director at a junior college.

所以家里从来没对我将来从事金融有什么期待，这反而让我轻松很多——我做的一切，纯粹是因为自己想做，从来没人给我施加过相关压力。

And so there were really no expectations about anything that I would do in finance, which actually I think has made it a lot easier because I just whatever I've done is just because I wanted to do it and never really felt any pressure of anything related to that.

但我打高尔夫时压力大得多，因为我爸是教练。

Whereas I felt a lot more pressure in my golf game because my dad's a coach.

所以我觉得这其实挺有帮助的，对吧？

So I think that helps, right?

这也和我常对别人说的一致：追随你的热情。

And I think it's consistent with what I tell people is follow your passion.

做一件事，是因为你真心想做，根本停不下来，自然而然就被吸引住了。

Do something because you wanna do it, you can't help doing it, you're drawn to it naturally.

如果你这么做了，时间一长，你的经验和能力就会不断积累。

And if you do that, that compounds over time in terms of your knowledge and capabilities.

我记得拉里·伯德刚签约波士顿凯尔特人队的时候，拿了份巨额合同，他说：‘我哪怕只拿一美元，也会为凯尔特人打球。’

And I remember Larry Bird said when he was signed on with the Boston Celtics, and he signed this big contract for lots of money, and he said, Hey, I would have played for the Boston Celtics for a dollar.

他整个职业生涯的打法也确实如此，拼尽全力，毫无保留。

And then that was manifested in the nature of how he played the game during his whole career, It was just all out.

所以总的来说，我在小镇长大，身边根本没人谈金融，这反而让我能自由选择，因为我真的觉得这事儿有意思。

So anyway, I think growing up in small town and not having any sort of finance kind of allowed me the freedom to choose to do it because I wanted to, I thought it made sense.

我觉得我父母特别棒，我的偶像就是我爸和我爷爷。

I think also my parents are great, and my heroes are my dad or my granddad.

我经常被提醒要练小号、完成作业，所以我很早就养成了很强的自律性。

I think I was reminded often to practice my trumpet, get my homework done, so I think that I developed, I had a lot of discipline.

我每天都会花一小时练小号，按时写作业。

I practiced my trumpet every day for an hour, did my homework.

我总是在上课前一天就把作业写完。

I always did my homework the day before class.

我从没旷过一节课。

Never skipped a class.

对此，我特别自豪。

I was proud of this.

从幼儿园到研究生，我一节课都没缺过。

I never skipped a class from kindergarten all the way through graduate school.

上大学大一那会儿，有次上课我睡着了，后来特别后悔——为了多睡一小时，错过的内容不知道有多重要。

So, I slept through a class one time in college when I was a freshman, and I was like, wow, that was a really terrible trade off, because that one hour versus I don't know what's going on now.

总之，我觉得自律、努力，还有做自己真正想做的事，而不是因为别人觉得你应该这么做。

Anyway, so I think discipline, discipline and hard work and doing something that you wanna do, not because the outside world thinks you should do it.

我也没逃过课，至少到现在还没逃过。

And I haven't skipped a class, at least not yet.

虽然你爸爸是高尔夫教练，但我听说你现在的差点还是2.5，我对高尔夫不太懂，但这已经很厉害了。

And I although your dad was a golf coach, I hear you're still a 2.5 handicap, which I don't know a lot about golf, but that's pretty good.

我还看到说，你爷爷一直读《华尔街日报》，这让你受到了启发。

And I also read that your grandfather read the Wall Street Journal and you were kind of inspired.

这本来就是我想问的。

That was my basic question.

不是不是，我之前跟别人说过，小时候我爷爷是个搞材料的。

No, no, I think I told that to somebody that like when I was a kid growing up, my granddad, he was like a materials man.

他在泛加拿大管道公司上班。

He worked for Panhandle Eastern Pipeline.

他不是搞金融的，但手里有些股票，每天都会看《华尔街日报》。

He was not like finance guy, but he had some stocks and he would look at the Wall Street Journal.

小时候，我记得他试着给我讲那是什么。

And when I was a kid, remember him trying to show me what that was.

我当时就想，要是哪天我能看懂《华尔街日报》，那该多厉害啊。

And I just thought, wow, someday if I could learn how to read the Wall Street Journal, that would be amazing.

除了这个，是什么让你对金融产生兴趣的？你怎么会去塔尔萨第一国民银行的？

And other than that, what drew you to finance and how did you end up at First National Bank in Tulsa?

我去塔尔萨，主要是因为当时我们学校关心的不是上哪所大学，而是要不要上大学。

Well, went to Tulsa because first of all, in our school, the question was more like, are you going to college?

根本没人逼你非得选哪所名校。

It wasn't like a lot of pressure for which college?

所以我最后去了塔尔萨大学。

So I ended up going to University of Tulsa.

我本来打算去肯塔基州的默里州立大学，因为那是我们高中唯一有人打过校际高尔夫的地方。有个叫凯文·阿诺德的人把我介绍给了教练，我就想，行啊，那就去默里州立，加入他们的高尔夫队。

I was gonna go to Murray State University in Kentucky, because that's the only school that anybody from my high school ever played college golf at, and this guy Kevin Arnold introduced me to the coach, and I was like, okay, great, I'll go to Murray State and play in the golf team there.

因为我就是想打大学高尔夫。

Because I wanted to play college golf, you know.

后来我们去塔尔萨看望祖父母，那会儿芝加哥刚过完一个寒冷的冬天，春天特别美，我就半开玩笑地问奶奶：‘你们这儿有大学吗？’

And then I ended up, we were visiting my grandparents in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and it was like a beautiful spring day after a cold winter in Chicago, and I sort of jokingly said, Hey grandma, you got a college here?

她回答：‘当然有啊，塔尔萨大学。’

And she goes, Why, you're why sure, Tulsa University.

我当时就说：‘哦？这学校我怎么从来没听说过？’

And I was like, Oh wow, I've never heard of that one.

后来我们真去学校看了看，结果发现：这是NCAA一级学校，体育很强，学术也不错，还是私立的，规模小，社区支持力度大，感觉特别棒。

But we then actually visited the school, and I was like, Wow, this is division 1A and it's big time sports and good academics, and it was a private school, small, and it was supported by the local community, and it was like, this is really pretty awesome.

所以我最后就去了那儿上学，本来想学点商业相关的东西。

So I ended up going to school there, and I wanted to do business of some sort.

我原以为会更偏向创业方向，但最后选了金融，因为我觉得金融有点像会计和经济的结合——会计很实用，但缺乏战略高度。

I figured it would be more entrepreneurial, but I ended up studying finance because it seemed to me that finance was sort of a combination of, if you take accounting, it's super practical, but not very strategic.

而经济学呢，又太理论化，不够接地气，我当时就是这么想的。

And if you'd go to economics, conceptual and not very practical, that's what I was thinking at the time.

至于市场营销，我觉得根本没必要专门读个学位来学这个。

And marketing is like, I don't really need to get a degree to do marketing.

所以我觉得金融特别实用，因为它既有战略眼光，又很接地气，不管做什么生意，财务都至关重要，对吧？

So finance seemed like it would always be very practical, because it was strategic and practical at the same time, because any business you have, finance matters, right?

所以对任何企业来说，这都是关键。

And so, it's gonna matter to that business.

因此我觉得学金融能让我未来有更多选择。

And so, it seemed like to me that that would keep my options open.

我学到了真正有用的东西。

I've learned something useful.

后来我去第一国民银行实习，说真的，我那时候也没啥明确计划——这一直是我的风格——当时我大三，正和高尔夫球队的史蒂夫·莱顿一起打球，他问我：‘普林斯，明年夏天你打算干嘛？'

And then when I went to First National Bank of Tulsa, I mean, once again, I didn't have any big plans and this is the theme, I was literally what was happening was it was my junior year and I was out playing golf with one of the guys in the golf team, Steve Layton, and he goes, hey Prince, what are you gonna do next summer?

你明年就毕业了。

You're graduating next year.

我回他：‘你这话什么意思？'

I was like, well, what do you mean?

他说：‘你有没有打算找份实习？'

He goes, well, are you gonna do an internship or something?

我就说，哎，我哪知道啊，实习是什么东西？

And I said, well, don't know, what's an internship?

我当时还以为那是医疗行业的事呢。

And I was thinking like that's medical, right?

他说，不是，有些银行夏天会招人，你毕业前先积累点工作经验挺好的。

And he goes, no, some banks, they have these jobs in the summer, and it might be good for you to get some job experience before you graduate.

我那时候跟一个叫迈克·特雷尔的同学一起上课，他选了投资组合理论这门课，有一天下课后我就去找他。

So I was going to class with a guy named Mike Terrell, he was in portfolio theory class at school, and I went up to him after class one day.

我跟他说，特雷尔先生，

I said, Hey Mr.

您知道实习这事儿吗？

Terrell, do you know anything about internships?

他回答，不知道，我对实习一无所知。

And he goes, No, I don't know anything about internships.

我说，哦，这样啊。

And I said, Okay.

就这样了。

And that was it.

后来我就忙着安排夏天的高尔夫赛事，还打算去当垒球比赛的裁判。

And so then I went on about basically scheduling golf tournaments over the summer, and I was gonna umpire softball games.

夏天我就干这些，都已经报名了。

That's what I did in the summer, and I was all signed up for this.

大概一个月后，特雷尔在课后叫住我，说：‘嘿，普林斯，你对实习还感兴趣吗？’

So then about a month later, Terrell pulls me up after class and he goes, So hey, Prince, are you still interested in an internship?

我当时说：‘我不确定，大概吧。’

And I was like, I don't know, I guess so.

我夏天已经有安排了。

I have plans for the summer.

他说：‘我这儿倒是有份实习，要不要来我这儿？’

He goes, well, I might have one working for me.

结果这事就真成了。

And so that ended up happening.

我当时在想，你觉得哪个更好？

My question was, what do you think would be better?

我该去实习，还是去管夏季的高尔夫赛事和软球裁判工作？

Should I do the internship, or should I do the golf tournaments and the umpire of the softball games?

他说，我觉得你还是先积累点工作经验比较好。

And he goes, well, I think it'd be good for you to get some job experience.

最后，那个夏天我就去银行跟他干了，帮他们整理一些可能的并购信息。

So anyway, I ended up working with him over the summer at the bank, and compiling information for mergers that they might wanna do.

我干得不错，他们挺喜欢我。

And I did a good job, they liked me.

他们直接给了我第二年的正式职位。

They gave me a job for the next year.

后来我决定接受这个职位，毕竟塔尔萨其他工作大多跟能源行业有关。

And then I decided to take that job instead of The other jobs in Tulsa are more like in the energy industry, mostly.

所以我开始想，到底该选哪份工作呢？

And so I thought, well, what job should you take?

我当时想的是，这就像个中心加辐射的结构，你懂的，对吧？

And I thought, the way I've thought about it was that I have this, you know, like hub and spokes, right?

就像自行车轮子那样，有个中心轮毂，再往外辐射出辐条。

There's hub and spokes, like a bicycle wheel, hub and spokes.

金融或者银行就在经济的中心，而各个行业则分布在那些辐条上。

And that finance or banks are at the center of the economy, and then all of the different industries are out in the spokes.

我觉得，如果从中心开始，以后随时可以往某条辐条上走，也可以继续留在中心。

And I thought if I start at the center, I can always go out one of the spokes or I can stay at the center.

是的。

Yeah.

但如果一开始就选了某条辐条，就很难再回到中心，更别提跳到别的辐条了，那你就被锁死了。

But if I start at one of the spokes, I can't go back to the center and I probably can't go across to another spoke, so I'm stuck there.

所以对我来说，从银行开始是最合理的决定。

So, it just made sense to me to start at a bank.

我就这么做了。当时在银行参加一个信贷培训项目，认识了一个叫大卫的人，他负责投资部门，主要做证券销售和交易，同时也管理银行的投资组合、资产负债、流动性与资金安排。

That's what I did, and then when I was there, there was a guy named David, I was in a training program, credit training program, and there was a guy there named David Moffitt who ran the investments division, which was really like a security sales and trading, but also manages the bank's balance sheet, the investment portfolio and asset liability management, liquidity, funding.

我们当时在那个部门巡访时，特别合得来。

And so I clicked very well with him when we did our tour through that department.

一切都让我觉得特别通透。

It all made sense to me.

于是他把我调到了投资部门，我是第一个从信贷培训项目直接调进投资部的人。

And so he pulled me up into the investments area, and I was the first person I ever pulled from the credit training program into the investments area.

他安排我到资金柜台，说：你得了解客户。

And he put me on the money desk because he said, you need to learn about customers.

每天我都在填定期存单的单子，接无数个电话。

And so I was filling out CD tickets every day and answering a million phone calls.

大概九个月后，他给我安排了个办公室职位，叫资金管理分析师，说：你试着想想，怎么才能提高我们的净利息收益率。

And then after about nine months, he said, he put me in an office and he said, it was called funds management analyst, and he said, I want you to try to figure out how we can improve our net interest margin.

于是我用了一种不一样的思路来思考这个问题。

And so I I took a different approach to thinking about that.

我把银行的资产负债表看作是一组组投资组合，资产组合、负债组合，各有不同的周转速度等等。

I looked at the bank, the bank balance sheet is like a set of portfolios, asset portfolios, liability portfolios with different speeds and so forth.

这对我来说就是最自然的理解方式。

It's just the way it made sense to me.

他们做的那些事，我完全搞不懂。

The stuff they were doing didn't make any sense to me.

然后我就在这岗位上干了四个月。

And then I've been in the job for four months.

那时候我才24岁。

I was 24 years old.

负责资金运作的那位同事决定去当债券销售了。

And the guy that was running the funding area decided to be a bond salesman.

莫菲特听说后说，麦卡达斯要去做债券销售了。

And Moffitt came in and he goes, McAdams is gonna be a bond salesman.

我就问，那资金运作谁来管？

And I said, who's gonna run the funding area?

他回答：我也不知道，你是唯一懂这行的人，可你太年轻了。

And he goes, I don't know, you're the only one that knows anything about it, but you're too young.

我就说，这种事我一点都不想沾。

And I said, I don't want any part of that.

但与此同时，我开始琢磨自己那些新点子，看看怎么才能更好地管理这些事。

But in the meantime, then I started playing around with my new ideas for how we could manage these things.

一个月后，他进来跟我说：‘普林斯，我让你先试六个月，负责资金部。’

And then a month later, he comes in and he goes, okay, Prince, I want you to run the funding area on a six month trial basis.

任何决定都得先跟我商量，咱们看看效果怎么样。

You can't make any decisions without talking to me, and we'll see how it goes.

我就说，行吧。

So I was like, okay.

于是我干了这事，第一年就这么干了三年。

So I was doing that, and I of first year, I did that for three years.

第一年主要是摸索该怎么操作。

First year was just kind of figuring out how it should go.

到了第二年，我才开始组建团队。

And then the second year was building the team.

结果呢，我开始吸引到最优秀的人，因为这份工作既有趣又充满激情。

And as it turned out, I started getting all the best people, because it was interesting, it was exciting.

后来我从培训项目里挑走了所有顶尖人才，第三年就正式上手，把整个系统运转起来了。

And then I ended up cherry picking all the best people out of the training program, and then the third year was turn the key and run the car.

事情进展得特别顺利，我们赚了不少钱，还被评为银行里最佳部门，拿了很多奖。

So it went really well, we made lots of money, we got lots of awards as the best department in the bank.

我也因此获得了个人表彰，一切都在朝着好的方向发展。

I got awards for that, and so that was going great.

后来另一家银行收购了我们——自由银行收购了我们，一切都变了，企业文化彻底不同了。

And then we ended up, this other bank ended up buying us, Liberty Bank bought us, and everything changed, the culture totally changed.

之前我和大卫·莫菲特几乎可以自由决策，做各种新颖又有趣的事情。

And went from David Moffett and me pretty much having free rein and doing new and cool interesting things.

虽然我们只是地区性银行，但和各大金融中心的银行联系非常紧密。

Even though I was a regional bank, we were very connected with all the money center banks.

大卫还是国家资产负债管理协会的创始成员，和摩根大通、花旗银行那些机构都是一起的。

And David was a charter member of the National Asset Liability Management Association with Chase and Citibank and all these guys.

所以我们可能是全国最精通这一行的团队之一，尽管我们规模很小，但也正因如此，我们能迅速落实各种想法。

So we were probably one of the most sophisticated in the country, even though we were small, and partly because we were small, we could implement things fast.

大银行做事拖拖拉拉，但我们行动起来特别快。

Big banks take forever, but we could move quickly.

但后来被收购了，一切全变了，那时候我想出了一个点子，达利奥。

But then we got bought out and everything changed, and I came up with an idea, Dalio.

事情是这样的，我和 Bridgewater 的关联始于我报名参加一个期货方面的会议。

So what happened, so the connection to Bridgewater is that I signed up to do this futures basically conference.

结果我最后没去，但销售代表给我打了电话，还寄来了一份 Bridgewater 的研究报告作为服务的一部分。

And I ended up not going, but the salesman called me and he sent me some Bridgewater research as part of their service.

那篇文章是雷·达里奥写的，叫《理解繁荣与萧条的周期》。

And it was a piece that Ray wrote called Understand the Boom Bus Cycle.

我把这篇文章给了大卫·莫菲特，他读完后，对经济的理解远比我深刻。

And I gave it to David Moffitt, and he read it, he understood economics way better than me.

他说：这是我读过最能讲清楚经济如何运行的文章。

And he said, this is the best thing I've ever read about how the economy works.

我就想，不错啊，我去了解一下这帮人。

And I said, oh, great, I'll check into these guys.

于是我找来了他们所有的历史报告，看看是不是靠谱，最后决定：好，我每年花295美元订阅你们的服务。

So I got all their historical reports to see if they were accurate, and I ended up saying, okay, I'll subscribe to your service for $295 a year.

机缘巧合，我渐渐认识了雷。

One thing led to another, I ended up getting to know Ray.

后来我干脆把他们当成我的校外研究团队，每年付他们17000美元。

I ended up actually then using them as my off campus research staff, pay them $17,000 a year for that.

我跟他们熟了之后，他们就给我做图表，就这样，我慢慢跟他们建立了联系。

And I got to know them, they'd do charts for me, and so that's how I got to know them.

那时候，桥水还没真正管钱，纯粹是个研究机构，雷只是在交易自己的账户。

But at that time, Bridgewater wasn't really managing any money, it was just a research firm, and Ray was trading his own account.

所以这其实是桥水转型的起点，因为银行内部的文化正在彻底改变。

And so that was really the beginning of the transition to Bridgewater, because the culture at the bank was totally changing.

我当时才27岁，实在不想留在那儿，看着这一切发生。

I was 27 years old, and I just didn't wanna stick around there and go through that.

所以我完全接受了桥水的一些理念，后来我们也就走到了一起。

And so I really embraced some of the philosophies of Bridgewater and we ended up getting together.

我觉得塔尔萨那家银行之所以能那么成功，部分原因是你不只是年纪最小的那个。

And I think a part also of why Tulsa was your bank in Tulsa was so successful was because you weren't only the young one.

如果我没记错的话，大卫·莫菲特当时也很年轻。

If I'm correct, David Moffett was also pretty young too.

他那时才三十出头。

He was in his early thirties.

对不了解的人说一下，大卫·莫菲特后来成了房利美的首席执行官。

And for those who don't know, David Moffett later became the CEO of Freddie Mac.

所以，那个财政部里确实培养出了一些非常成功的人。

So some pretty successful people emerged from that Treasury Department.

没错。

Exactly.

大卫后来去了SEC PAC和美洲银行，再之后他和杰里·格伦霍弗一起接管了辛辛那提的星银行，那是一家地区性银行。

So David ended up building He went to SEC PAC and the B of A, and then he and Jerry Grunhofer ended up running Star Bank in Cincinnati, which is a regional bank.

他们把这家银行管理得非常好，还不断收购其他银行，用自己公司的股票做交换来收购。

And they ran it very well, and they kept buying other banks because they would just use their stock price to buy the other bank and the stock swap.

现在这家公司就是美国银行。

So that is now US Bank.

你平时看电视篮球赛，看到美国银行的中场广告，那家银行就是大卫·莫菲特一手打造的。

So when you watch the basketball games on TV and you see the US Bank halftime report, that's David Moffett that built US Bank.

就像你刚才说的，后来他去当了房利美公司的首席执行官。

And then like you said, he took the job of CEO of Freddie Mac.

他是个非常能干的人。

He was a highly capable guy.

还有个我当年一起共事的朋友，叫阿尔·沃克。

There's another guy there that I worked with, which is a friend, is Al Walker.

我和他以前是高尔夫球队的队友，后来他当上了阿纳达科石油公司的首席执行官，把公司卖给了西方石油。

He and I were on the golf team together, and he ended up becoming the CEO of Anadarko Petroleum and sold it off to Occidental.

我们三个人，当初都住在第一栋宿舍里。

So all three of us, you know, were at first house at the same time.

谁能想到呢？

Who would have thought?

你加入桥水之前，甚至刚加入的时候，最让你印象深刻的是什么？

And when you joined Bridgewater and even before you joined, what stood out to you?

你还没加入桥水时，还有刚进去那会儿，最让你觉得特别的是什么？

And what stood out to you before you joined and what stood out?

你说什么？

Was that?

再说一遍。

Say again.

你还没加入桥水，刚进去那阵子，最让你觉得不一样的地方是什么？

Before you joined Bridgewater and in your earliest days there, what stood out to you about it?

哦，

Oh,

我觉得最特别的是，他们对经济和市场有着一种完全不同且清晰的理解，把它们看作一个整体系统。

well, I would say a very different and clear understanding of economies and markets as an integrated system.

雷以前常把它形容为经济学家和交易员的结合。

Ray used to describe it as the merger of an economist and a trader.

经济学家懂经济如何运行，交易员懂市场流动、风险与回报，然后把这两者融合起来。

So the economists understand how the economy works, the trader understanding markets flows, risk reward, and then the integration of those two.

而融合的方式，就是把根本性的理解系统化。

And the way the integration happened is then systemizing the fundamental understanding.

在我还在那里当客户的时候，雷就已经开发出了最初的几个系统：利率系统、股票系统和黄金系统。

And so Ray had built the first couple of, he built an interest rate system, a stock system, and a gold system when I was there and I was a client.

他管这个叫‘线’，其实就是我们现在说的每日观察报告。

And so he there was a thing we called it, he called it the wire, but it's what we call daily observations today.

每天的‘线’都会打印出这些系统的运行结果，这也是服务的一部分。

In the wire every day would be the printout, the readout of the systems, and that was part of the service.

这种理念真的让我很敬佩——你敢把自认为正确的东西，清清楚楚地写成代码，然后真刀真枪地照着执行。

So that idea really, just that I really respected the integrity of laying it out the way you think it works to the point that you've literally coded into the computer, and now you're gonna live with it.

你接下来的所有交易，都要基于这套系统来做。

You're gonna do trades based on that.

你得真正坚持下去，接受这些结果。

You're gonna actually follow through and live with that, the outcomes.

另一点是风险管控计划，这个理念认为企业其实由两部分组成。

And then the other thing was this concept of a risk management plan, which was this idea that businesses are really comprised of two things.

一部分是运营利润，另一部分是对市场的押注。

One is like an operating margin, and the other is a bet on the markets.

很多时候，企业其实押注了市场却浑然不觉，或者因为短期利润提升而接受了市场风险，但这种风险一直潜伏着。

And a lot of times they have a bet on the markets without really knowing they have a bet on the markets, or they accept the bet in the markets because it improves their short term profits, but it's a latent risk there.

他常拿珠宝商来做例子。

And so he used to use the example of a jeweler.

珠宝商以为自己做的是珠宝生意，但实际上他们也在赌黄金价格，对吧？

A jeweler thinks they're in the jewelry business, but they're along the gold market too, right?

你的利润里，有多少是来自黄金市场的波动，又有多少是来自实际的经营？

So how much of your profit is coming from being along the gold market, and how much is coming from the operating business?

雷以前会帮企业做这类风险管控方案。

Ray used to do these kind of risk management plans with companies.

我觉得这个观点特别有道理，这跟我小时候在伊利诺伊州靠近卡特彼勒工厂的经历有关。那时候美元特别强，工厂就开始裁员，因为他们被日本竞争对手压价了，原因就是美元太强。

And I thought that idea made total sense, it was part of my experience that growing up in Illinois near a caterpillar factory, when the dollar was super strong, they were doing layoffs and they were getting hurt because the Japanese could undercut them because of the dollar.

后来我去了塔尔萨，油价高涨，塔尔萨一下子成了全美最繁荣的城市之一。

Then I go to Tulsa, and oil prices are high, and Tulsa was one of the top places in the country.

《金钱》杂志甚至把它评为全美失业率最低的前3%地区，而波士顿的失业率却高达18%。

Money Magazine rated as one of the top 3% unemployment when Boston had an 18% unemployment rate.

可突然间油价一跌，所有情况就完全颠倒了。

And then all of a sudden oil prices go down, and everything flip flops.

那时候你再努力也没用。

And it's like, didn't even matter.

你干得再出色也没用，街角的药店就因为油价下跌撑不下去了。

I could do a great job, but it just doesn't matter, and the corner drugstore is gonna go under because oil prices fell.

所以你看，无论是个人生活还是企业经营，都会被市场牵着鼻子走。

So this idea that you are so much whipped around by the markets in your own life and as a business.

那你不觉得，我们真该好好掌控这种局面吗？

And so wouldn't you wanna get a handle on that?

我欣赏桥水的这个理念：跳出地球，站在更高处看问题，这样你就能对全球任何市场做多或做空。

And the idea of Bridgewater that I liked was get off the planet, get above it, and you could take any market in the world and go long or short.

现在，一切都掌握在你自己手里。

Now it's totally up to you.

你不会再像在塔尔萨那样，被动挨打——油价下跌跟你个人能力毫无关系，油价上涨你也只是运气好，对吧？

You're not a sitting duck in Tulsa getting your head handed to you because oil prices fell and has nothing to do with you, or doing great because oil prices went up, right?

这种说法简直太荒谬了。

That's totally stupid.

后来我开始为企业做咨询，这正是我当初被聘用的原因——制定风险管理方案。

And then to work with companies, and that's what I was originally hired to do, is to do these risk management plans.

我会跟银行、金融机构和各类企业合作。

I would work with banks and financial institutions and companies.

其中一个早期的客户是BC水电公司，后来还成了哈佛商学院的案例。

One of the early ones was BC Hydro, which turned into a Harvard Business School case study.

我当时才27岁，对公用事业一窍不通，却要给这家水电公司提供关于如何管理债务与业务风险的建议。

I was 27 years old, and I'm going up there, didn't know anything about utilities, but advising this utility on how to manage their debt structure against their business.

这非常成功。

And it was very successful.

所以，那两个想法真的很重要。

So that idea, those two things really.

你刚跟雷一起工作的时候，正如你所说，桥水当时还只是个中小型的研究团队，跟现在完全不一样。

And when you originally started working with Ray, as you said, Bridgewater was a pretty small to medium sized research shop, it wasn't what it is today.

你觉得是什么关键节点，让桥水一步步发展成今天的样子？

What do you think were some of the main turning points that led it to become what it is today?

他们只是从雷的客厅搬到了街对面、高中旁边的美国胶合板公司大楼。

They just moved out of Ray's living room into The US Plywood Building in Wilton across the street from the high school.

那时候总共才十个人，对吧？

And so it was only 10 people, right?

我本来是负责做风险管控方案的，但同时也得做交易，因为他们新设了一个基金，本金只有三十五万美元。

And I was supposed to do these risk management plans, but I also was supposed to do the trading because they had this new fund, and it had $350,000 in it.

所以我墙上挂了个计时器，提醒自己该去查看市场了，看看信号有没有变化。

So I had an egg timer on my wall to remind me when to go check the markets to see if the signals have turned.

后来我开始靠做这些风险管理计划拉业务，显然第一个转折点是1987年，世界银行雇我们管理一个500万美元的债券账户。

And then I was raising business doing these risk management plans, obviously the first turning point was in 'eighty seven when the World Bank hired us to manage a $5,000,000 bond account.

那时候真是让人震惊，世界银行，居然选了我们。

That was like, wow, the World Bank, know, held Ochoa.

所以这算是你拿到的第一个客户，对吧？

So that's, now you have your first account, right?

第一个客户最难搞。

That's the hardest one.

另一个非常重要的转折点是1991年，Rusty Olsen，他在柯达公司，是养老基金领域的大佬。

Think another really important one was when Rusty Olsen in 1991, Rusty Olsen was at Kodak, and he's a legend in the pension industry.

一位先驱，也是传奇人物。

A pioneer and a legend.

我们之前跟Rusty谈过资产管理的事，但他根本不想碰债券，而我们主要做债券。

And we had talked to Rusty about managing money, and he did not wanna use bonds at all, we did mostly bonds.

结果他在周五下午发来一份传真，说：在我的投资组合里，我觉得分散性还不错，但如果出现通缩型萧条，所有资产都会一起崩盘。

But he sent us fax on Friday afternoon, and he said, in my portfolio, I feel good about my diversification, if we have a deflationary depression, everything's gonna go down together.

所以我琢磨着，要是我只投一亿美元在期限二十五年的债券上，就能获得相当于五亿美元的资本运作效果。你们觉得这想法怎么样？

So I'm thinking that if I put a lesser amount of money, let's call it $100,000,000 in bonds with a twenty five year duration, that I'll get the price action of $500,000,000 for capital outlay of $100,000,000 What do you guys think about that idea?

接到这个请求后，雷直接说：周一早上，我们要给他一份让他站起来鼓掌的答复。

And so when we got that request, Ray basically said, Monday morning, we are gonna send him an answer where he stands up and applauds.

我们从周五下午就开始干，连轴转，周五晚上、周六全天、周六晚上、周日晚上都没停。

And we started on Friday afternoon, we worked all day, all night, Friday night, Saturday, Saturday night, Sunday night.

周一早上我们一到公司，立刻回头重新研究，翻出了美联储从1860年代起发布的铁路债券收益率公报。

We come in Monday morning, we literally went back and we studied, we pulled data from the Federal Reserve bulletins on railroad bond yields back to the 1860s.

那时候可没有现在这么多现成的数据来源。

This is before you could pull data from all kinds of places.

所以我们手动录入1860年代的铁路债券收益率，画出收益率曲线，分析这些数据之间的关联。

So, we're punching in bond yields from the 1860s, railroad bond yields, yield curves to show how these things relate to one another.

到了周一早上，我们看着手里的成果，心里直打鼓：这东西实在拿不出手。

And so we come in on Monday morning and we kind of look at what we had and we're like, this really sucks.

看来我得告诉Rusty，周一早上给不了他答复了。

So I'm gonna have to tell Rusty that it's not gonna be Monday morning.

但后来我们还是继续做了，大概几周后，我们交给他一份研究，到今天还是这个行业里最权威的参考。

But then we did work on it, and I would say maybe a couple weeks later, we sent him a study that is still the gold standard of all studies.

事实上，每当我带新人入门，我都会把这份报告发给他们，告诉他们：这才是标杆。

And in fact, I hand it out to people when they start to see, this is the gold standard.

我们当时写进报告里的很多思路，后来都发展成了独立的行业，或者变成了业界的标配。

And a lot of those concepts that we embedded in there are things that became practically industries and different things that became commonplace in a sense.

但在当时，这些想法完全是前所未有的。

But they were totally new at that time.

于是，Rusty就委托我们做这个项目，这个委托在当时非常独特。

And so, Rusty hired us for this mandate, which was a very, very unique mandate.

具体内容是：用期货工具实现二十五年期的久期，

Was twenty five year duration implemented with futures, and

再配上杠杆，

a half

以及十年期国债期货。

times leverage and ten year bond futures.

我们可以把久期从四十年直接调到零。

We could shift the duration from forty years all the way down to zero.

所以利率风险大得惊人。

So massive interest rate risk.

我们可以把货币敞口上下浮动百分之百，而且能在任何国家、收益率曲线的任何点上随时操作。

We could move the currency plus or minus 100%, and we could do that at any point in the yield curve in any country.

这基本上是第一个阿尔法叠加策略的委托管理。

And so, it was basically the first alpha overlay mandate.

它本质上是负债对冲和阿尔法叠加策略的结合。

It was effectively a combination of a liability hedge and an alpha overlay mandate.

这对我们来说是个重大突破，因为柯达是很有声望的公司，这个项目影响很大，而且是阿尔法叠加策略。

And that was really a big start for us because Kodak was a well respected name and this was a big deal and it was alpha overlay.

它把我们所有能做的事都打包成了一套完整的方案。

It took all the things that we were capable of and put it into a package.

后来还有一些别的事，但说实话，主要还是靠一点一点地硬扛出来。

And then there's just other things along the way, but mostly I would say it's really grinding it out.

其实就是日复一日地拼命打磨，追求极致。

It's really grinding it out, and it's like every single day, just striving for excellence.

绝不容忍平庸，永远尽力而为，不断突破，别管别人怎么做，别走寻常路，要想清楚什么才是正确的答案。

Never tolerate mediocrity, always do your best, and just push it, push it, try to think about the right answer, not what everybody else does, not the typical answer.

只问什么是正确的答案，从最根本的原理出发去思考。

Just think about what is the right answer, and think about that from first principles.

这个世界运行的基本规律是什么？

What are the basic physics of how the world works?

如果我把这些基本规律用到这个问题上，抛开所有人的做法，答案会是什么？

Now if I take those physics and I apply them to this problem, what is the answer independent of what anybody else does?

你唯一要做的，就是找到这个问题最准确的答案。

And so you're just trying to get the right answer to the problem.

但不是每个人都会这么做，所以很多时候，大家就都跟着惯例走，而你却在做一件跟所有人都不一样的事。

And then not everybody does that, and so what happens is convention settles in a lot of times, and now you're doing something that's radically different than everybody else.

就算别人都在那边，而你独自在这边，只要你是对的，时间久了，世界终究会走到你这边来。

But if everybody else is over here and you're the only one over here, but if you're actually right, then in time the world comes to you.

就这样反复实践，才是桥水基金成长的根本。

Then doing that a number of times was really the basis basis of the growth of Bridgewater.

你刚才提到不要容忍平庸，这一点有多重要？

And you mentioned that don't tolerate mediocrity.

你认为企业文化对桥水的成功有多关键？现在的文化是怎样的？

How important do you think the culture has been to the success of Bridgewater and what's the culture like today?

这绝对是第一位的，所有事情都从这里开始。

Well, it's number one, it's where everything starts.

因为归根结底，人和文化才是起点。

Because it's people and culture is really where it starts.

真正决定效率的，是人怎么做事，以及他们如何协作。

Because it's the people who do it, and it's how they work together that really determines your effectiveness.

对。

Yeah.

你多次提到，还有很多人在湾区也说过，桥水最大的优势之一，就是清楚自己不知道什么。

And you said, you've mentioned a couple of times and many people worked at Bay Area have mentioned that one of the biggest powers of Bridgewater is knowing what you don't know.

而真正做到这一点，关键在于谦逊，也就是承认自己不知道什么。

And a key part of doing is knowing of knowing what you don't know is humility.

那么，你们如何确保团队在进入新市场时能做出最佳判断，并清楚地意识到自己的知识盲区呢？

So how do you ensure your team has the best judgment when entering new markets and aware of what they don't know?

我觉得，首先要把这一点明确说出来，这特别重要。

I think stating it, first of all, is so important.

把它当作一个基本前提或原则提出来，解释清楚为什么它如此关键，不然人们根本不会想到这一点，对吧？

Just expressing that as sort of a given or a principle, and talking about why that is, And otherwise, it just doesn't occur to you, right?

这其实跟我们通常的想法恰恰相反。

It's sort of contrary to what you normally think.

一般人觉得力量来自于自己知道的东西，但实际上，真正的力量来自于你意识到自己不知道什么。

Normally you think your power is in what you know, but actually your power is in what you don't know.

你的风险恰恰在于只依赖自己已知的，却没意识到自己可能会被突如其来的信息打个措手不及，或者漏掉了什么关键点，对吧？

And your risk is in pursuing what you know, and not being aware of how you're gonna get maybe blindsided, or what you're missing, right?

所以，首先要明确地认识到这一点，然后真正把它落实下来——而且是大家一起做，因为只有别人能帮你看到你自己看不见的盲区，对吧？

And so, recognizing that explicitly is the first step, and then just trying to live that out, actually collectively, because the only way you can really get a window into the things that you're blind to is if somebody else tells you, right?

所以，把不同能力的人组合在一起至关重要。

So combining people with different capabilities is super crucial.

然后要坦诚地面对各自的优劣势，清楚自己哪些地方对、哪些地方可能错，并且愿意接受自己可能是错的。

And then transparency and honesty about strengths and weaknesses, and what you're right or what you're probably wrong about, and being open to what you're wrong about.

只有这样，才能真正得到正确的答案。

That's the only way you can really get the right answers.

归根结底，当你管理资金时，有没有做对是有客观标准的，那就是你的回报。

And then at the end of the day, when you're managing money, there's an objective standard about whether you're right or not, and that's your returns.

市场是个纯粹的优胜劣汰体系，因为没人会在交易上署名。

And the markets are a pure meritocracy, because nobody's name goes on a trade.

你下注的时候，没有任何品牌加成。

There's no brand value when you put a trade on.

你不是对就是错，总有人站在对面，这是一场零和游戏。

You're either right or you're wrong, and there's always somebody on the other side, and it's a zero sum game.

所以，这是世界上最难的游戏，但回报可能最高，也吸引着最顶尖的人参与。

So, it's the hardest game in the world with probably the highest payoff, and you get the best people doing it.

所以，如果你的团队内部没有真正的优胜劣汰机制，就不可能在外界的市场环境中竞争得过别人。

So if you don't have a meritocracy inside your organization, you won't compete well in the meritocracy that exists in the world, in the markets.

那在招聘的时候，积极性和追求进步的意愿有多重要？

And when you're hiring, how important is drive and wanting to always improve?

除了这一点，招聘时你还会特别关注哪些方面？

And what are some key things you look for other than that when hiring?

我觉得优先级应该是价值观、能力、技能，按这个顺序。

I think that it's values, abilities, skills in that order.

价值观最重要，能力其次，技能排第三，而且技能其实没那么关键，因为技能是可以培养的。

Values is the most important thing, abilities is second, and skills is third, and not that important because you can develop skills.

价值观才是根本，因为它一旦形成就很难改变。

And the values are essential because they're so unchangeable.

你的价值观是在成长过程中，由家庭、文化等各种因素塑造出来的。

You develop your values growing up, and your family, and your culture, and everything.

这些价值观成了你固有的部分，也决定了你面对各种情况时的反应方式。

So those become a given, and then the values actually end up shaping how you react to situations.

所以我们最看重的是价值观，比如开放的心态和对真相的追求。

And so we really do look for values first, and values like openness and desire for truth, what's true.

我觉得那些重视自我提升的人在我们这里表现得更好，因为他们把失败和反馈当成进步的动力。

I do think that people who value self improvement and improvement work much better in our environment because they take failure and feedback as fuel to improve.

所以你会把它看成一件好事。

So you view it as a positive.

但如果你更在意别人怎么看你，那你就完全不一样了，你会把反馈当成攻击。

Whereas if you're much more concerned, let's say, what people think about you, then you take feedback in a totally different way.

你怎么能这么说呢？

Like, how could you say that about me?

就是这种反应。

That kind of stuff.

这种态度我们不想要。

So that's what you don't want.

所以先看价值观，然后是能力，尤其是逻辑思维能力，还有想象力、创造力和分析的严谨性，这些都很关键。

So it starts there with values and then abilities is really, especially the ability to think logically and imagination, creativity, analytical rigor, that kind of stuff.

我觉得动力其实相对更容易找到。

And I think drive is probably actually easier to find.

大多数来自好学校的人都为了取得成绩付出了很大努力，所以这一点还比较明显。

Most of the people that are coming out of good schools have worked really hard to do that, so that's a little bit easier.

但是

But

毅力和动力是不一样的，对吧？

grit is different than drive, right?

因为毅力指的是，当事情不顺的时候，你能不能保持专注，把挫折变成动力，朝着长期目标前进，对吧？

Because grit is like, can you, when things don't go well, can you maintain your focus and use that to get better with a long term goal in mind, right?

始终盯着那个长远目标，不让任何事拖住你的脚步。

Always pursuing that long term goal and kind of not letting anything hold you back.

这跟动力是两回事，我觉得这一点特别重要。

That's a different thing than drive, and so I think that's super important.

不过很难衡量，所以我们主要还是尽量识别价值观和能力，技能方面反而不太看重，主要靠后期培养。

It's hard to measure it though, So I think we do our best to identify the values and abilities primarily, not much on skills, and to train people on skills.

但归根结底，你通过和人共事，比通过面试更能了解他们真正是什么样的人。

But then at the end of the day, you learn a lot more about what people are like by working with them than interviewing them.

所以在整个过程中，每个人都必须保持这种客观性，尤其是在工作中。

And so you have to maintain that, everybody has to maintain that objectivity all along the way, when you're in the job.

这种客观性甚至延伸到你选择做什么工作、不做什么工作。

And that extends even to which kind of jobs you take and don't take.

你在这个岗位上可能失败了，但你具备的能力在别的岗位上或许能发挥得更好？

And are you failing in this one, but you have these abilities that will be better in this one?

你有没有足够的弹性来做出这样的调整？

And do you have the flexibility to make those shifts?

我想稍微转个话题，聊聊你个人生活中的见解。

I want to shift a little to kind of your insights in your personal life.

你的信仰在你的职业生涯，以及在桥水之外的日常生活中，扮演了什么角色？

How has your faith played a role in your career and also your general life outside of Bridgewater?

这很根本，可以说是所有事情的起点，是最核心的。

Well, it's fundamental, it's number one fundamental to kind of the starting point for everything really.

你知道吗，圣经几千年来蕴含着大量的真理和智慧，这其实就是一切的起点——智慧。

And if you know, I just to, you know, there's a heck of a lot of truth in the Bible over centuries and centuries, and you know, and wisdom and so forth, and like, that's the starting point, wisdom.

我觉得，个人对更高存在——比如上帝、基督——的问责感非常重要。

And I think that accountability, like a personal accountability to a higher, you know, to God, to Christ.

这会彻底改变你对待一切事情的方式。

I mean it's like it changes how you pursue everything.

它让你养成服务他人的态度。四部福音书里都有一段话：人子来，不是要受人的服侍，而是要服侍人，并且要舍命，作多人的赎价。

It gives you a servant attitude, There's a scripture verse in all four gospels that said, even the son of man did not come to be served, but to serve, and even to give his life as a ransom for many.

这四部书里都有，对吧？

It's in all four of them, right?

所以，‘不是要被服侍，而是要服侍人’这个理念，我觉得其实也适用于资本主义。

And so this idea of did not come to be served, but to serve, I actually think that that is how capitalism works too.

因为如果你的出发点总是自己，你就很难真正理解别人。

Because I think if your base frame of reference is yourself, you won't be able to understand other people as well.

如果你真心愿意付出、服务他人，就能更懂他们的处境和需求，也更有可能为他们提供真正有价值的东西，对吧？

If you have a truly giving spirit and serving others, you'll understand their situation, understand their needs, and you'll be much more likely to sort of give them a good gift, let's just say, right?