伊朗的利维坦失去头颅

比如，他们难道不应该吗？而且他们离霍尔木兹海峡更近。

Like, should they not be and they're much more proximate to the Strait Of Hormuz.

霍尔木兹海峡是个关键咽喉要道。

Strait Of Hormuz is a choke point.

你找不到任何替代路线。

You cannot find an alternative to it.

沙特阿拉伯有一条横跨其领土的管道通往红海，但这条管道本身也可能遭到无人机袭击。

Saudi Arabia has a pipeline across its territory to get to the Red Sea, but that pipeline itself could be attacked by the drone.

所以，你知道，我同意你的看法，这件事很可能在一周内就结束。

So this is where, you know, I agree with you that this could very much end in a week.

特朗普总统刚刚说过，事情进展比预期更好。

President Trump just said, literally just said, that things are progressing better than expected.

这是他的原话。

This was his statement.

他说伊朗人希望谈判，而他也想和他们谈。

He said that Iranians want to talk and that he wants to talk to them.

所以有迹象表明事情正在朝正确的方向发展，比如特朗普总统刚刚宣称拉里贾尼是阿德尔齐·罗德里格斯。

So there signs that things are moving in the right direction, like in terms of President Trump just declaring that Larijani is Adelzy Rodriguez.

你知道的？

You know?

他管她叫什么来着？

What what did he call her?

我们的女孩？

Our girl?

他将成为我们的那位留胡子的人。

He's gonna be our our our bearded man.

你知道的？

You know?

我能想象这种情况发生，这就是为什么我说很多事都像是好莱坞拍的。

I can see that happening, and that's why that's why I say a lot of this is kind of just Hollywood.

你知道的？

You know?

别跟我说这是政权更迭。

Don't tell me that this is regime change.

别跟我说特朗普总统真的关心那上万到三万名死亡的抗议者。

Don't tell me that president Trump really cares about the 10,000 to 30,000 dead protesters.

我们可不是打算让伊朗变成威斯康星州。

Like, we're not we're not going to try to get Iran to turn into Wisconsin.

这里发生的事情根本不是这样。

That's not what's going on here.

那些在去年十二月和一月镇压民众的政权内部势力，仍将掌权，但他们的行为会有所改变，特别是在核计划和弹道导弹方面。

Elements of the regime who repressed the people in December and January, they're going to be in charge, but they're going to change their behavior, particularly on nuclear program, on ballistic missiles.

我仍然认为这对美国来说是双赢，但这并不是政权更迭。

I still think it's a win win for The US, but it's not about regime change.

这是政权的调整。

It's about regime calibration.

我认为特朗普外交政策真正深刻的地方在于，在一个多极世界中，你最不应该做的就是与任何人陷入长期战争。

And I think that what's really profound about president Trump's foreign policy, and I've said this before, is that in a multipolar world, the last thing you want to do is commit yourself to a war with anyone for a prolonged period of time.

这只会进一步消耗你的资源。

It will just further drain your resources.

所以，你不想搞政权更迭，而是想要这些政权调整。

So instead of regime change, you want to have these regime calibrations.

非常短期、快速的，你知道的，不派地面部队，也不真正耗费资源。

Very sort of short term, quick, you know, like no ground troops, no resources really spent.

让你的盟友来承担主要工作。

Get your allies to do the heavy lifting.

在这种情况下，以色列实际上正在参与并做大量工作。

In this case, Israel is actually participating and doing a lot.

那么，你能得到什么？

And so, and then what do you get?

嗯，你得不到政权更迭，也不在乎这个，因为这个世界容不下规范性或道德问题。

Well, you don't get a regime change and you don't care about that because the world has no room for normative or moral issues.

美利坚合众国没有资源去彻底改变一个拥有九千万人口、地形崎岖多山的中东国家的政权结构。

The United States Of America does not have the resources to change fundamentally the regime structure of a country of 90,000,000 people in a rugged mountainous terrain in, you know, The Middle East.

这种情况根本不可能发生。

That's just not gonna happen.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得你说得很对，你刚才聚焦的那个问题——伊朗目前的局面是受自身能力所限才形成的吗？

I think you're right when you when you center in on, is the dial turned for Iran where it is because of capacity?

还是说他们故意这么做，认为这样就能达成目标，或是觉得这是摆脱当前困境的出路？

Or because intentionally they think that's what's gonna get them what they want or what that's the way out of this?

因为我觉得你说得对。

Because I think you're right.

特朗普总统想在一两周内结束这件事。

President Trump wants to wrap this up in a week or two.

如果伊朗人能扛住第一波打击，再撑到那个时候，他们就能达成协议，保住他们的德黑兰（注：原文delsi应为笔误，结合语境推测指伊朗核心区域），政权也基本能维持下去。

And if Iranians can take the first punch and just stay in the game long enough to get there, then they'll get a deal and they can have their delsi and the regime can basically continue on.

不过就你刚才说的行为转变而言，挺讽刺的——我不是很清楚阿里·哈梅内伊是不是真的这么无私，但他都已经86岁了。

But to your point, with a change in behavior, ironically, I mean, I don't know if Ali Khamenei is really this selfless, but I mean, the dude was 86.

他病得很重。

He was really sick.

他其实已经病了好几年，以至于不得不把责任交出去。

Like, he'd been sick for some years to the point where he was already having to delegate responsibility.

他曾经说过，自己早就想以殉道的方式死去。

He had spoken about wanting to die by martyrdom anyway.

一方面，一个可能的解读是，如果他想保住政权，那么为政权做好接班计划并为政权而死，就是他能为政权做的最好的事。

One one, you know, potential interpretation is if if he wanted to preserve the regime, the best thing he could do for the regime was to have a succession plan and die for the regime.

正是这一系列事件，才让政权最有可能顶住美国和以色列对它的打压。

Like that is the sequence of events that gives the regime the best possible chance in standing up to what the United States and Israel are doing to it.

是的，我想回应一下你刚才在聊天中发给我的那个问题。

And yes, I I do want to hit that question that you just sent to me via chat.

但我还想问你一个问题。

But I want to ask you a question.

我还没能自己想明白这个问题，这原本只是我自嘲的想法：其他所有前美国总统是不是也在打电话给他们的前顾问，质问说：我本可以干掉这些人吗？

I I haven't been able to answer myself first, and it started as a joke to myself because I was thinking, is every other former US president like calling up their former advisers and demanding, so I could have just killed these guys?

我的意思是，我根本不用去管那个最高领导人，这家伙从上世纪八十年代起就一直是每一位美国总统的眼中钉。

Like, I I didn't have to deal with the like, like, the supreme leader's been like, literally since the nineteen eighties, this guy has been a thorn in the side of every single US president.

我们本来可以直接除掉他吗？

We could have just knocked him out?

非得要特朗普总统来干这事？

Like, it takes president Trump to do this?

那为什么以前没人这么做呢？

Well, Why has no one else done this?

我来告诉你。

Tell you.

我有这个答案。

I'll I tell have that answer.

我有答案，这个答案就在乔治·凯南写的那本伟大的书《美国外交》里，我之前提到过。

I have that answer, and that answer is the topic of this great book by George Kennan called American Diplomacy, which I brought up before.

美国一直具备这样的能力，但缺乏特朗普总统那种道德虚无主义。

America always had the capabilities, but it didn't have the moralistic nihilism of president Trump.

因为，你看，这就是我对那些当我声称这一切都是好莱坞时感到震惊的人的异议。

Because, see, this is what my contention is with everybody who is really aghast when I say it's all Hollywood.

这确实全是好莱坞。

It is all Hollywood.

你说你关心抗议者死亡，但当你攻击政权时，政权只是把阿亚图拉换成一个类似的人，然后你就觉得没问题了。

You say that you care about protesters dying, but then you attack the regime, the regime replaces the ayatollah with somebody similar, and then we're cool with it.

特朗普总统正以一种非常十九世纪的方式追求美国利益。

President Trump is pursuing American interests in a very nineteenth century manner.

这与道德或规范无关。

This isn't about morality or norms.

过去，当美国总统需要为军事行动辩护时，他们会借助规范和道德的叙事。

In the past, when American presidents had to justify military operations, They did so through the narrative of norms and morality.

萨达姆·侯赛因是个坏人。

Saddam Hussein is a bad guy.

斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇是个坏人。

Slobodan Milosevic is a bad guy.

基地组织是邪恶的。

Al Qaeda are evil.

于是每个人实际上都变成了希特勒。

And so everyone effectively becomes Hitler.

所以你不能只是把希特勒换成戈林就视而不见。

And so you cannot just go replace Hitler with Goring and be cool with it.

我的意思是，你不可能一边说‘例外’，一边这么做。

Like, that's that's just not like, would you when you use Except

但显然唐纳德·特朗普就是这么做的。

except apparently Donald Trump because that is what he's doing.

不。

No.

我同意。

I I agree

我同意你的看法，也许

with you that maybe

他并不是那样，是的。

that's not what he's yeah.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我不是有意的

I didn't mean to

打断一下。

jump.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

没关系。

It's okay.

不。

No.

不。

No.

你完全对。

You're totally right.

这到底是为什么他能做到，而别人却不行？

This is so why is he capable of doing this and nobody else is?

是的。

Yeah.

我会说，合适的人在合适的时刻，我的意思是，世界不再是单极或两极的世界了。

I would argue that the right man for the right moment, and what I mean by that is that the world is not it's not a unipolar or a bipolar world anymore.

这是一个多极世界。

It's a multipolar world.

在一个多极世界中，如果你一再使用绝对化的道德论点，你将不得不在每一个竞争对手国家的土地上部署军队。

In a multipolar world, if you consistently use absolutist moral arguments over and over again, you're going to be putting boots on the ground of every country that's your rival.

在多极世界中，存在其他极其强大的对手，这样的做法根本不可行。

That's just not something that you can do in a multipolar world where there are other adversaries who are extremely powerful.

美国若被卷入将伊朗变成威斯康星州的行动，那将是愚蠢的。

It would be stupid for America to get drawn into turning Iran into Wisconsin.

美国必须维护自身的利益。

America has to look out for its own interests.

我想要说的是，雅各布，特朗普总统并不是一个天才，突然想通了这一点。

What I'm saying, Jacob, is that President Trump, it's not like he's a genius who figured this out.

而是美国在外交政策的演进中，正处在一个美国人某种程度上想要这样的时刻。

It's that America is at a point in its evolution when it comes to foreign policy where this is what Americans kind of want.

然而，民调并不支持这一点。

Now, polls don't show that.

民调显示，只有四分之一的美国人支持这场冲突。

Polls show that only a quarter of Americans support this conflict.

但一旦结束，我认为这种情况会改变。

But once it's over, I think that that will change.

如果你我说得对，这场行动持续两周左右，特朗普总统最终会撤回对委内瑞拉的行动，并说：拉拉贾尼是个好人。

If you and I are right and this lasts, let's say, two weeks and President Trump eventually kind of pulls the Venezuela here and says, Larajani, he's a good guy.

在那种情况下，人们会说：哦，原来如此。

In that world, people will be like, Oh, okay.

不错。

Cool.

这又是一次有限的行动。

It was another limited operation.

他们没有耗尽我们的资源，也没有因为我们在中东陷入这些战争而改变未来十年的地缘政治格局。

They did not suck our resources or change geopolitics for the next ten years because we're stuck in The Middle East fighting these wars.

为什么只有他能做到这一点？

Why is he the only person who can do this?

因为世界已经改变了。

Because the world has changed.

我认为在这个世界里，使用绝对化的论点是没有意义的。

I think in this world, it doesn't make sense to use absolutist arguments.

这根本就不是多极世界运作的方式。

That's just not how a multipolar world works.

这回到了那句老话：国家没有朋友或敌人。

It goes back to that old saying, Countries don't have friends or enemies.

它们只有利益。

They just have interests.

你知道，这正说明了这一点。

You know, and that's what this illustrates.

不过，我觉得关于他的一件有趣的事是，他使用的是绝对化的语言。

I think one of the things that's so interesting about him though is that he's using absolutist language.

他的言辞中没有任何不带有道德化和意识形态色彩的内容。

Like, there's nothing about his language that is not moralizing and ideological.

这是为了伊朗人民的自由。

It's freedom for the Iranian people.

这个政权是邪恶的。

This regime is evil.

他们正在威胁美国的利益。

They're threatening American interests.

尽管我们刚刚延缓了他们的核计划八个月，他们还是想要核武器。

They want nuclear weapons even though we just set back their nuclear program eight months ago.

所以，他说这些话的时候，他的实际战术行动却恰恰是你所描述的那样。

So, like, he can say all those things, and yet his actual moves of the tactician are exactly what you're talking about.

我觉得你对他的战术的描述非常准确。

Like I think your description of his tactics is dead on.

不知为何，他今天可以用道德化的语言，明天又换一种说法。

And for some reason, he can can use the moralizing language one day and then shift the language the next day

是的。

Yeah.

却没人对此提出质疑。

And and not be called on it.

但如果你回看过去的美国政府，比如理查德·尼克松和基辛格，尽管让我感到沮丧和懊恼——如果你一直听这个播客，你应该知道我有多讨厌基辛格。

Whereas you've got if I look back at previous US Governments, like Richard Nixon and Kissinger, much to my like dismay and chagrin, we all know how much I hate Kissinger if you've been listening to this podcast.

这正是他们所准备的世界，他们的外交政策也完全针对这种情况。

Like, this is the world they were preparing for, and their foreign policy was dialed to this.

世界上没有朋友，只有利益。

They there there are no friends but interests.

无论我们在世界何处，我们都必须做到足够恶劣，因为这一切都关乎美国的利益。

We're gonna be as horrible as we have to be no matter where we are in the world because this is all about US interests.

但那就是他们所说的。

But that was what they said.

他们从不假装这有什么不同。

They didn't pretend like it was anything different.

他们特别之处在于，他们直接说出来了——比如尼克松在演讲中经常使用‘多极’这个词。

The thing that was exceptional about them was they said it I mean, Nixon used to use the word multipolar in speeches.

他对这一点相当直白。

He was fairly blunt about it.

另一方面，你可能会遇到像巴拉克·奥巴马这样的人，他或许也曾想过要这么做，甚至有过这样的愿景，但在实践中，他根本无法接受。

Flip side is you you may have, you know, somebody like Barack Obama who maybe wanted to do that, like had visions of maybe trying to do that, but in practice, he just couldn't stomach it.

比如，当雅兹迪人开始遭到伊斯兰国的大屠杀时，他就说：好吧。

Like as soon as the Yazidis start getting genocided by ISIS, he's like, okay.

我其实是个现实主义者，我必须救这些人，因为我无法容忍我们不救他们，因为我们是山巅之城，是照亮世界的光。

Like I was I was a realist, I gotta save these people because I cannot conscience that we're not gonna save these people because we're the light on the hill and the city on the hill and everything.

否则。

Else.

我不确定奥巴马的问题在于，我认为他的选民还没准备好接受这一点。

I'm not I'm not sure Obama I I think the problem for Obama is his constituents were not ready for this.

我认为奥巴马的问题在于，他从2008年到2016年一直担任美国总统。

I think the, you know, the problem for Obama is that he was the president of The United States Of America from 2008 to 2016.

在那段时期，世界是否已经进入多极化、是否令人恐惧、是否让美国难以施展影响力，这些都不是显而易见的，因此你必须保持谨慎。

And during that period of time, I don't think it was self evident that the world was multipolar and therefore scary and therefore difficult for America to project power in and therefore you had to be prudent.

而他的选民都是自由派。

And his constituents are liberal.

他们相信绝对的普世人权。

They believe in absolutist universal human rights.

所以，你知道，他确实空袭了很多人。

And so, you know, like, it was I mean, he droned a lot of people.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

是的。

Like Yeah.

很多。

A lot.

对。

Yeah.

很多。

A lot.

但除此之外，他仍然不得不对这些叙事表示口头支持。

But but other than that, like, he had to still pay lip service to these narratives.

另一个问题是，在冷战时期，我认为要如此残酷也很困难，因为你确实面临一场意识形态的冲突。

The other issue was that during the Cold War era, I think it was also difficult to be this brutal because you you did have an ideological conflict.

苏联就在那里。

Soviet Union was out there.

这是一场意识形态的较量。

This was an ideological battle.

这不仅仅是两个超级大国之间的较量。

This wasn't just a battle between two superpowers.

苏联是共产主义的。

Soviet Union was communist.

美国是资本主义和民主国家。

America was capitalist and a democracy.

我们到了2026年，中国算什么？

We, in 2026, what is China?

请别告诉我他们还是共产主义的。

Please don't tell me they're communist.

你明白我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

我的意思是，他们到底是什么？

Like, what are they?

意识形态的冲突是什么？

What is the ideological conflict?

葡萄牙有毛派政党准备夺权，然后我们就得去支持右翼亲商业势力吗？

Is there a Maoist party in Portugal ready to take over and then we're going to have to intervene on behalf of the right wing pro business?

没有。

No.

2026年根本不存在意识形态上的挑战，所以我们没有两大阵营之间史诗般的意识形态对抗。

There is no ideological challenge in 2026, so we have no ideological epic battle between two camps.

美国不再是能够肆意挥霍资源、随意追求道德与规范的单极霸权。

America is not a unipolar hegemon where it can waste resources willy nilly on pursuing morality and norms.

我认为特朗普的灵活性在于他不是道德败坏，而是道德中立——这种中立让他能够灵活转向。

I think that Trump's sort of nimbleness, it's the fact that he's amoral, not immoral necessarily, amoral, that allows him to pivot.

我得说，客观来看，在当前对U的限制下。

I would have to say, objectively speaking, given the constraints on U.

S。

S.

力量投射，这才是正确的做法。

Power projection, this is the correct way to do it.

你只是在进行政权调适，而不是政权更迭。

You just You know, it's regime calibration, not regime change.

如果每隔几年就得对伊朗这么做，那也只能如此了。

If you have to do this every couple of years to Iran, well, then, you know, it is what it is.

是的。

Yeah.

但在我们谈中国之前，我想再问你一个问题，这是我从职业生涯开始就一直困扰我的问题。

But before we get on to China, I I wanna put one more question to you, which is something I've this is something I've struggled with, I mean, since I started my career.

但尤其在过去几年，尤其是特朗普和哈里斯的竞选开始升温时，这个问题让我更加纠结。

But I also I struggled with it in particular in the last couple of years, especially when when the race between Trump and Kamala Harris was starting to heat up.

因为我不确定你是否记得，卡玛拉·哈里斯上过《60分钟》。

Because I don't know if you remember Kamala Harris went on sixty minutes.

而且那个剪辑版——我的意思是，如果你还没看过原版，一定要去看看原版。

And the edited version, I mean, unedited you should go watch the unedited version out there if you haven't seen it.

天啊。

Oh my god.

我的意思是，剪辑版其实并不怎么样。

I mean, the edited version wasn't that good.

原版简直是喜剧。

The unedited version is absolute comedy.

但在剪辑版里，她被问到——我这里要 paraphrase 一下，因为我记不清原话了。

But in the edited version, she gets asked I'm gonna paraphrase here because I don't remember the exact quote.

她被问到，从地缘政治角度看，对美国最大的威胁是什么，她基本上回答说是伊朗。

She gets asked what is the biggest threat to The United States from a geopolitical perspective, and she basically says Iran.

这似乎就是她最关心的事，如果她当上总统，她就得处理伊朗问题。

That went like that's the thing that occupies her time, and that if she becomes president, she's gonna have to deal with Iran.

我当时坐在那儿想，伊朗？

And I was sitting there thinking, Iran?

真的吗？

Really?

我的意思是，这还是在2025年之前呢。

Like, even I mean, and that's before, like, 2025.

我在想，伊朗真的对美国利益构成威胁吗？

I was thinking, do they really threaten US interests?

我现在有点认同你说的关于政策走向的观点，但当我看到这一切时，仍然耗费了美国大量的财政支出、火力和其他资源。

And I'm kinda there right now because I can get to most of where you're saying on how policy is getting, but when I look at it's still a significant expenditure of US treasurer and, like, firepower and everything else.

美国的利益在这里究竟得到了多大程度的提升？

And and how are US interests that much furthered here?

伊朗真的对美国构成如此重大的地缘政治威胁吗？

Like, was Iran is Iran really that much of a geopolitical threat to The United States?

在我看来，其他地方显然有更大的问题需要解决。

Like, it seems to me that there are much bigger fish to fry elsewhere.

而且也许特朗普能搞定一切。

And and maybe Trump can do it all.

也许这就是多极理论开始瓦解的地方，美国的实力比你我想象的要强得多。

Like, maybe this is where the multipolar thesis starts to fall apart and The US is stronger than either you or I give it credit for.

而正如你所说，特朗普完全不受道德或比例原则的约束。

And Trump, to your point, is unbridled by concerns about, you know, morality or about proportionality.

他就是想：这家伙是个糟糕的人。

And he's just like, hey, this guy's an awful person.

他的政权一团糟。

His regime sucks.

我可以除掉他。

I can take him out.

好啊。

Cool.

咱们除掉他吧。

Let's take him out.

也就是说，总的来说。

Like, that's net net.

这很棒。

That's great.

这对我政府来说，是一种低成本或低风险、高回报的胜利。

That's a like, low cost or or low risk, high reward win for for my administration here.

我不确定。

Like, I don't know.

你明白我话里暗示的意思吗？

You understand what I'm dancing around?

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我明白。

I do.

我明白。

I do.

我的意思是，我认为美国这么做并不是因为伊朗是一个压迫性政权。

I mean, I think it's The US didn't do this because Iran is a repressive regime.

绝不可能。

No way.

这跟它毫无关系。

That that has nothing to do with it.

美国这么做是因为伊朗长期以来一直在敷衍美国。

The US did this because Iran's been stringing The US along forever.

就像在2025年，以色列和美利坚合众国证明了他们可以对伊朗为所欲为。

It's like in 2025, Israel and The United States Of America proved they can do whatever they want to Iran.

特朗普总统给了他们六个月到八个月的时间来谈判协议，但他们基本上没怎么认真谈。

President Trump gave them six to eight months to negotiate a deal, and they kind of didn't.

你知道吧？

You know?

当时就是，够了。

It was like, enough.

真的够了。

Enough already.

我认为这对世界其他地区发出了一个强烈的信号。

And I think it's a great signal to the rest of the world.

比如，我们会干掉你们的领导人。

Like, we will kill your leader.

我不是说‘很棒’的意思是我觉得这很厉害。

And I I don't mean great as, like, like, I think it's awesome.

你知道吧？

You know?

但这就是美国想表达的意思。

But, like, this is what The US is saying.

美国实际上是在对全世界说：哦，你们觉得这是个多极世界？

The US is actually saying to the rest of the world, Oh, you think it's a multipolar world?

很好。

Cool.

我们同意。

We agree.

我们同意这是一个多极世界。

We agree it's a multipolar world.

在我们2025年12月发布的国家安全战略中，我们明确指出，大国理应拥有自己的势力范围。

In our national security strategy we published in December 2025, we in fact say that great powers deserve to have spheres of influence.

以前从未这么做过。

It's never been done before.

我相信，当我断言世界是多极的时候，我的观点在客观上是正确的。

I believe that I'm not just right objectively when I say the world is multipolar.

我相信特朗普总统完全同意我的看法。

I believe President Trump 100% agrees with me.

但接下来，第二步，当你接受了世界是多极的这一事实后，美国就会说：好吧。

But then, the second step, like, after you accept the world is multipolar, the second thing that America says is like, cool.

那么，我们就不关心如何改善你的民生了。

Well, we don't care then about improving your livelihood.

我们只会轰炸你。

We'll just bomb you.

你不想让我们成为霸权吗？

You know, you don't want us to be a hegemon?

你不想让美帝国来主导吗？

You don't want the American empire to be in charge?

你不想让我们来主导吗？

You don't want us to be in charge?

你不想让我们像那样吗？那我们就不会去维护该地区的秩序了。

You don't want us to be like, well, then we are not going to police the region.

我们只会现身轰炸你，然后立刻离开。

We're just going to show up and bomb you and then book it.

六个月后我们会回来，再次轰炸你们。

Then we'll come back six months later and bomb you again.

你知道为什么吗？

You know why?

因为我们根本不在乎你们的生活是否改善。

Because we don't care that your lives improve.

我们真的不在乎。

We actually don't.

比如，谁接替哈梅内伊当权，我们根本不关心。

Like, we don't care that the guy who comes, takes over from Khamenei is like, whatevs.

我们只想要你们做到三件事。

Just here's three things we want from you.

把它们交出来。

Deliver it.

否则你们会一次又一次地被轰炸。

Or you're going to be bombed again and again and again.

自从美国扔掉了那件道德外衣，你知道吗，那种光鲜亮丽的自由主义包袱——一切行动都必须基于绝对普世人权规范的立场。

It's almost once America threw away that cape of morality, you know, that sheen, that constant liberal baggage that everything had to be done from a perspective that there's absolute universal human rights norms.

你知道吗？如果你要干预伊朗，你就得让这个地方比你来的时候更好。

You know, if you're going to intervene in Iran, you have to leave the place better than you left it.

一旦他扔掉了那件外衣，就只剩下一句：去他的。

Once he, like, threw that cape away, it's just like, fuck it.

我们就每隔六个月轰炸你们一次，伙计。

We're just going to bomb you every six months, man.

就这样了。

Like, that's it.

是的。

Yeah.

你明白吗？

You know?

所以这就是

And and so that's

如果，如果你不想加入基于规则的国际秩序，而且你撤下了你的旗帜，好的。

If if if it's sort of like, if you don't want to join the rules based international order and you're taking your sign down, Okay.

没问题。

Cool.

旗帜撤下了。

Sign's down.

没问题。

Cool.

旗帜撤下了。

Sign's down.

我们来。

Let's

走吧。

go.

是的。

Yeah.

我们可以比你们做得更好。

Like, we can do this better than you guys can.

这正是美国向世界传达的基本信息。

And that's what America is basically telling the world.

你看。

Like, look.

你们知道，你们喜欢这种多极化的东西。

You guys, you know, like this multipolarity stuff.

我的意思是，雅各布，你和我因为推崇多极化而被指责是中共间谍，亲中国、亲俄罗斯，因为多极化正是普京和习近平喜欢的术语。

I mean, you know, Jacob, you and I got accused of being like CCP spies and pro China, pro Russia because multipolarity was a term that Putin and Xi loved.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为它主张美国已不再主导世界。

Because it argues that America is no longer in charge.

而乔·拜登所做的——我认为这是一个错误——就是对抗这一客观现实。

And what Joe Biden did, and I would argue it was a mistake, is he fought against that objective reality.

他浪费了资源，试图向世界证明：不，美国确实代表某种价值，它仍然是霸权。

He wasted resources on trying to illustrate to the world that, no, America does stand for something, and it is still a hegemon.

而特朗普却说：不。

And Trump is like, no.

去他的。

Fuck it.

你知道吗？

You know what?

他们想要多极世界，乔。

They want the multipolar world, Joe.

那就让他们得到吧。

Let let me give it to them.

我会让你看看，当美国不再关心基于规则的秩序时，会是什么样子。

And I'll show you what it looks like when America doesn't care about a rules based nor order.

这很讽刺，因为这种行为在我看来实际上比乔·拜登的版本更具霸权性。

It's ironic because that behavior is actually much, to me at least, is much more hegemonic than Joe Biden's version.

对我来说，这种行为更加霸权，因为你根本就是在说，这家伙根本没在谈判。

Like, it's much more hegemonic to me that you're like, this guy is not negotiating.

酷。

Cool.

我能看看计划吗？

Can I can I get the plan?

好的。

Yeah.

计划已经准备好了。

Plans are ready to go.

走吧。

Let's go.

顺便说一下，我今晚还得去参加筹款活动，所以我们还是会继续。

And by the way, I still have to hit the fundraiser later tonight, so we're we're still going.

我的意思是，这简直不可思议。

Like, I mean, it's incredible.

这确实令人惊叹，但咱们别把这事儿说得这么霸权了。

It's incredible, but, like, let's let's pump the brakes on this being hegemonic.

伊朗飞的是F-4，幻影II。

Like, Iran flies f fours, Phantom Twos.

F-4。

FFours.

就是四，个位数的四。

Like, four, single digit four.

F4。

F4.

我认为它是在1958年设计的。

It was designed, I believe, in 1958.

他们到现在还在飞。

They still fly them.

明白吗？

Alright?

一艘大型航空母舰停靠在伊朗海岸，就能为所欲为。

Big that's so, like, an aircraft an aircraft carrier off the coast of Iran just does whatever he wants.

一艘航空母舰停靠在中国海岸，却早已沉在海底。

An air aircraft carrier off the coast of China is, like, on the bottom of the ocean.

我认为很多人看到这些情况，会认为这标志着美国的单极主导。

I do think that a lot of folks, they look at what's going on and they're like, No, this is a sign of American unipolarity.

这并不是一个多极世界。

This is not a multipolar world.

但咱们先别急着下这个结论。

But let's pump the brakes on that.

伊朗实际上比我们想象的、比我们所能描绘的要温和得多。

Iran has proven to be a lot less adversarial than we think, than we can illustrate.

如果美国……

Would this be the case if The U.

S.

S.

想跟中国或俄罗斯打仗吗？

Wanted to fight China or Russia?

当然不想。

Of course not.

他们拥有核武器。

They have nuclear weapons.

他们拥有高超音速巡航导弹。

They have hypersonic cruise missiles.

这会变得困难得多，显然会引发第三次世界大战。

Will be a lot tougher and obviously would lead to World War three.

所以，不，我只是觉得这表明美国将会像其他国家那样行事。

So, no, I just think it shows that America is going to, like, kind of act in a way that other countries have been acting.

你知道的？

You know?

我觉得就是这样。

And I think that that's it.

就这样了。

That's it.

这就是特朗普所做的。

That's what Trump has done.

我认为未来十年最糟糕的情况是，我们选出一位总统，他拒绝这些新的外交政策工具，并决定美国应该把伊朗这样的国家变成威斯康星州。

And I do think that the worst thing that can happen over the next ten years is that we get a president who rejects some of these new tools of foreign policy and decides that, no, America should turn a country like Iran into Wisconsin.

我这么说的原因是，尽管初衷是好的，但实施起来几乎总是导致比特朗普在委内瑞拉或甚至伊朗所做之事更严重的破坏和痛苦。

The reason I say that is while the intention is good, the problem is that execution of it almost always leads to much more destruction and pain than what Trump just did in Venezuela or even Iran.

而且，现在局势已经定型了。

Well, and the die is already cast now.

所以其他正在考虑这一点的国家会认为，是的，当我说美国具有霸权时，意思是美国对伊朗的行为是毫无约束的。

So other countries that are thinking about this, like, yes, The United States can be when I say hegemonic, mean US behavior towards Iran is unconstrained.

正如你所说，它不受道德约束，也不受能力、对手或任何其他因素的制约。

It's unconstrained by morality to your point, but it's unconstrained by capacity, by adversaries, by anything.

美国就是想做什么就做什么。

It's just like The United States is doing whatever it wants to do.

我明白你的观点。

And your point is taken.

美国不会对俄罗斯或中国采取这种行动。

The US is not gonna do this against Russia or China.

美国甚至可能都无法对朝鲜采取这种行动。

US couldn't even probably do this against North Korea.

如果对平壤的干预是这种方式，我会立刻坐直身子。

Like, I would sit up in my chair a little bit if this is how an intervention with Pyongyang went.

你可能还记得2017年，特朗普曾一度考虑过这种做法。

And you might remember back in 2017, Trump was flirting with this.

他当时在朝鲜半岛外部署了两艘航空母舰。

He had the two care aircraft carriers off the Korean Peninsula.

当时看起来我们正朝这个方向发展。

Seemed like we were moving that direction.

但他最终没有行动，可能是因为这并不是那么容易得手。

And then he didn't do it, probably because that was not gonna be as as much of a layup.

但这完全是无拘无束的。

But it's just unconstrained.

但我认为你的观点是对的，因为无论你是否同意特朗普的政策，世界现在都会这样看待美国。

But I I think your point is right because whether you disagree with Trump's policy or not, like, this is now how the world is going to look at The United States.

因此，各国将尽可能快地发展某种形式的威慑力，无论是像我们上一期讨论的那样拥有核武器和核威慑，还是关于——是的。

And so countries are going to, as quickly as possible, try and develop some level of deterrence, whether that's nuclear weapons and a nuclear deterrent like we talked about last episode, whether it's about Yeah.

比如更有效的防御系统，真正管用的防空系统。

You know, better defense systems, like actual air defense systems that work.

十年后，如果出现一位新总统试图扭转局面，但其他国家都在想：不行，不行，不行，我们必须加快步伐，因为我们随时可能被轰炸，那么十年后，美国将实质上变得更弱。

Ten years from now, if you get a new president who, like, tries to turn the clock back, but everybody else is is thinking, no, no, no, no, like we need to hurry up because we could get bombed at any moment, then ten years down the road, The US will be materially weaker.

甚至无法对伊朗这样的国家施加影响。

And it won't be able to assert itself even against a country like Iran.

所以从这个意义上说，特朗普总统已经让美国走上了一条，未来任何总统都很难摆脱的道路。

So in that sense, like, president Trump has set The US on a path that no future president is really gonna be able to get off of.

如果他们真的尝试了

And if they do

我认为

I think

我也是。

so too.

这可能会是灾难性的。

Would probably be disastrous.

我认为这一点将长期存在。

I think this is this is with us to stay.

我们正处于十九世纪。

We're in the nineteenth century.

我们生活在一个十九世纪的多极世界中，而多极世界并不意味着美国与其他强国实力均等。

We're in a multipolar world in the nineteenth century, and a multipolar world doesn't mean that America is equally powerful as other poles.

不。

No.

你仍然可以拥有世界上最强大的国家，比如十九世纪的英国或今天的美国，但英国并没有四处侵略其他国家，并试图把它们变成威斯康星州。

You can still have the most powerful country in the world, The United Kingdom in the nineteenth century or US today, But United Kingdom did not go around just invading other countries by itself and then trying to turn them into Wisconsin.

英国

The United Kingdom

有点吧。

Sort of.

它确实这么做过。

It sort of did that.

不是吗？

Did it not?

不是。

No.

其实没有。

Not really.

利比亚、南非？

Libya, South Africa?

哦，没有。

Oh, no.

我的意思是，那些都是帝国的一部分，但那些甚至算不上真正的战争。

I mean, those are parts of the empire, but those weren't even, like, really wars.

是的。

Yeah.

因为那些人太弱了。

Because the people were so weak.

我的意思是，比如

I mean, like

但我说的更多是指欧洲战场，英国经常采取后发制人的策略。

But, like, what I'm talk talking about more is in the European theater, The United Kingdom quite often led from behind.

它组建了自愿联盟，克里米亚战争就是一个很好的例子。

It created coalitions of the willing, like the Crimean War being a good example.

英国是参与那场冲突的多个国家之一。

The United Kingdom was one of several countries that fought that conflict.

所以，这正是我想表达的意思。

And so that's kind of what I'm getting at.

英国并不是独自完成了一切。

The United Kingdom did not just do everything by itself.

它没有让自己过度分散。

It didn't stretch itself thin.

它在这方面很聪明。

It was smart about it.

它在这方面很权谋。

It was Machiavellian about it.

我认为我真的觉得这种做法会一直延续下去。

And I think that I do think this is going to stay with us.

我认为下一任美国总统，即使是一位民主党人，也会像特朗普现在这样行事。

I think the next president of The United States Of America, even if it is a Democrat, is going to act precisely the way Trump is acting right now.

我知道很多人讨厌这一点，但这是经典的，这正是雅各布，你和我当年从乔治·弗里德曼那里学到的做法。

And I know a lot of you hate this, but this is a classical this is this is Jacob, you you and I were, like, taught by George Friedman how to do this.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我总是很喜欢他提前撰写关于下一任美国总统任命的报告，那时他会说，什么都不会改变。

And I always loved when he would write a report ahead of the appointment of the next president of The US, and he would say, like, nothing will change.

你知道的？

You know?

然后自由派会崩溃，保守派也会崩溃。

And then the liberals would lose their mind, and the conservatives would lose their mind.

我会说，如果AOC成为美国总统，她的外交政策会更像现在特朗普的做法，而不是布什或奥巴马时期的风格。

And I will say, like, if AOC becomes the president of The United States Of America, like, the foreign policy is gonna look a lot more like this, like what Trump is doing right now, than like what Bush, W, or Obama did.

是的。

Yeah.

但另一方面，我得回去查一下GPF的报告，看看乔治有没有说过这一点。

The the flip side of it though is that the, like, if I I I'd have to go back and look at GPF reports and see if George said this.

但如果你在特朗普的第二个任期内说‘什么都不会改变’，那将是错误的。

But if you said that about Trump in the second administration, nothing's gonna change.

那将是错误的。

That would have been wrong.

他确实改变了某些事情。

He has changed things.

从这个意义上说，他是一位世界历史性的人物，像这样的人，通常地缘政治力量和制约因素才是主导一切的推手。

In that sense, he is a world historical He is this individual whom, like, yeah, normally, like geopolitical forces and constraints, they are the ones that are operating things here.

但他做出的决定将影响此后的一切。

But he made decisions that will now affect everything else that comes afterwards.

无论你喜欢他还是讨厌他。

Like him or hate, like love him or hate him.

我认为，这一点目前是无可争议的。

Like that, I think, is indisputable at this point.

他改变了美国外交政策的走向。

He's changed the course of US foreign policy.

因为事情本不必朝这个方向发展。

Because it didn't have to go this direction.

他本有选择，他拥有能动性，并且他做出了决定。

Like he had choice here and he had agency and he made it.

从这个意义上说，我认为他剥夺了未来领导人的自主权。

And in that sense, I think he took the agency away from future leaders.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're right.

好的。

Okay.

你刚才在聊天里发了这个问题，那我们来深入探讨一下。

Let's you sent me this question in the chat, so let's attack it a little bit.

我看到外面有这种说法：所有文章都花了整整24小时才开始大量出现，声称这完全是为了中国、南海和台湾。

And I've seen this out there, which is everybody wants to make this it took twenty four hours for the articles to start to proliferate, that this was really all about China and the South China Sea and Taiwan.

支持这种观点的善意说法是，你知道，从霍尔木兹海峡运出的石油、化肥和化学品，如果封锁持续超过几周，确实会影响海湾国家。

The good faith argument there is that, you know, this oil, all the fertilizer, the chemicals that are coming out of the Strait Of Hormuz, all this trade, like, yes, it's gonna affect the Gulf States, especially if blockage goes on for more than a couple weeks.

但这些出口的大部分都是运往亚洲的。

But most of that is going to Asia, the exports of it.

而中国也占据了其中不成比例的份额。

And China, an inordinate share of this as well.

这真的全是关于中国吗？

Is this really all about China?

这真的是为了把中国这样一个非盟友、但可以说是合作伙伴从棋盘上移除并扭转其立场吗？

Was this really about taking a potential Chinese, not ally, but let's say, partner off the board and flipping them?

这会对中国的伤害比对任何其他国家都更大吗？

Is this gonna impose the most damage on China than any other country?

你刚才提到油价上涨了。

You you said you talked about oil prices being up.

我的意思是，今天是3月1日，星期日。

I mean, it's Sunday, March 1.

期货价格上涨了10%，这意味着油价大约到了每桶80美元。

Futures were up 10%, so that puts oil roughly 80 a barrel.

这有什么大不了的。

Whoop dee doo.

对于大多数西方国家来说，这根本算不了什么。

Like, that doesn't mean anything for most of the West.

对于中国来说，这其实只是我们现在谈论的、有点儿相关的事情。

For China, like, that's you know, now now we're, like, talking about something that's that that's mildly important.

我还想提一下，纳伦德拉·莫迪上周去了以色列，和本雅明·内塔尼亚胡关系相当不错。

I also just wanna throw in here, you know, Narendra Modi was in Israel last week, and he was having quite a bromance with Benjamin Netanyahu.

我猜他事先得到了一些关于这里即将发生事情的风声。

And I assume he got some heads up about what was about to happen here.

所以在我看来，以色列和印度的关系也是这件事中非常有趣的一部分。

So to me, the Israel India relationship is also a really interesting part of this.

我不知道你有没有注意到这一点。

I don't know if you also caught this.

内塔尼亚胡几周前接受采访时谈到与美国的未来关系，他说希望探讨美国对以色列的军事和国防支持——包括年度支出——应该逐步减少，或许十年内完全终止，让以色列实现自给自足。

Netanyahu, what was it, an interview a couple weeks ago, he was talking about the future relationship with The United States and he was saying that he wanted to he was like, wanted to broach the notion that US, or the extent of US military and defense support for Israel in terms of annual expenditures should start going down and should maybe go away in ten years' time so that Israel should be self sufficient.

我觉得这也是个很有趣的点，因为这表明以色列正在为多极世界做准备，他们现在帮我们一把，但我们清楚，十年后他们不会再浪费时间在这上面了。

Like, I thought that was a really interesting nugget there as well because that's Israel preparing for multipolarity and preparing for, hey, like, they're doing us a solid now, but we push them to do the solid now because we know in ten years, they're not gonna be wasting time here.

他们到时候可能跑去格陵兰挖企鹅了。

They're gonna be digging up penguins in Greenland or something like that.

所以这一切都跟中国有关吗？

So is this all about China?

我让你先说一会儿。

I'll let you cook for a sec.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为确实有一种强烈的动力，迫切希望把各种线索联系起来。

I think that there is this real impetus, real desire to connect the dots.

每个人都想把各种线索联系起来。

Everybody wants to connect the dots.

但有时候，这些线索其实并不需要被强行连接。

Sometimes they don't really need to be connected.

这一切都跟中国、委内瑞拉和伊朗有关吗？

Is it all about China, Venezuela and then Iran?

中国显然从这两个国家进口石油。

China obviously sources oil from both of those.

现在有一种观点认为，在这场冲突之后，美国将禁止伊朗向中国出售石油。

Now there's this view that after this conflict, The U.

美

S.

国将禁止伊朗向中国出售石油。

Will prohibit Iran from selling oil to China.

首先，这完全是无稽之谈。

First and foremost, that's nonsense.

美国在占领伊拉克期间，都无法阻止伊拉克向中国或俄罗斯出售石油。

The United States Of America couldn't prohibit Iraq from selling oil to China or Russia while still occupying it.

石油是一种可替代的资源，所以不可能。

Oil is a fungible resource, So no.

顺便说一句，即使美国成功了，中国也可以从沙特阿拉伯购买石油。

And and by the way, even if The US was successful, China would just buy oil from Saudi Arabia.

所以我认为，这并不全是关于中国。

So I think that it's not all about China.

我认为这确实有帮助。

I do think that it helps.

它有助于对那些亲华的政权进行调整。

It helps to do regime calibration to regimes that were pro Chinese.

这没问题。

That's fine.

但任何认为伊朗亲华而沙特阿拉伯与中国没有良好关系的人，根本不懂这个世界正在发生什么。

But anyone who thinks that Iran is pro Chinese and that Saudi Arabia does not have also a very good relationship with China just doesn't know what the hell is going on in the world.

那么，沙特阿拉伯能做什么呢？

Like, what is Saudi Arabia going to do?

总得有人把石油卖给中国。

Someone's going to have to sell their oil to China.

世界不会不向中国出售石油。

The world's not going to not sell oil to China.

我认为更大的问题是，这充分展示了美国在霍尔木兹海峡的军事存在和实力。

I think a much bigger issue is that this is a great demonstration of American military presence and might in the Strait Of Hormuz.

我认为美国的

I think what The U.

可以

S.

通过这次袭击传递的信息是：嘿，中国，作为一点提醒，我们随时可以关闭霍尔木兹海峡。

Can signal with this attack is like, Hey, China, just as a little reminder, we can close the Strait Of Hormuz whenever we want.

别管伊朗了。

Forget about Iran.

所以如果你入侵台湾，记住我们控制着这个区域。

So if you invade Taiwan, just remember we control this region here.

我们有很多军事基地，虽然我们的运力有限，但无论石油来自伊朗、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯还是科威特，你们都别想运走。

We have a lot of military bases, we don't have a lot of capacity, so you will not get your oil whether it's from Iran, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia, Kuwait.

其实无所谓。

Doesn't really matter.

关键是，如果我们想阻止，石油就别想通过。

The point is the oil will not transit if we want it to stop.

但那是另一个问题了。

But that's a different point.

我只是觉得，不，这跟中国没关系。

I just think that, no, it's not about China.

我认为美国所做的是，你知道，它本有机会对委内瑞拉和伊朗进行政权更迭，但我确实认为下个月，特朗普总统和习近平将举行会晤。

I think that what The US is doing is it's You know, I think it had an opportunity to regime calibrate Venezuela and Iran, but I do think that actually in month, we're going to have President Trump and Xi meet.

我认为他们会达成一项协议。

I do think that they're going to find a deal.

如果非要说的话，我认为这有助于特朗普总统在这些谈判中占据优势。

If anything, I think this does help President Trump in those negotiations.

我认为他能占据上风。

I think he can have sort of an upper hand.

我认为这是向中国发出一个信号，表明美国不希望被挑战。

I think it's a signal to China that it doesn't want to challenge The U.

S。

S.

现在。

Right now.

我认为，无论如何，这正是它的作用。

I think, if anything, that's what this does.

它让中国相信，他们应该尽快与美国达成协议，或许转而购买美国石油，而不是委内瑞拉和伊朗的。

It makes China believe that they should, as quickly as possible, make a deal with The US and maybe buy American oil instead of Venezuela and Iranian.

是的。

Yeah.

我唯一有点不同看法的是‘尽快’这一点。

The only part of that I would quibble with is the as quickly as possible line.

我觉得你说得对。

Like, I I think you're right.

我认为中国正在争取达成协议。

I think China's angling for a deal.

我不认为中国会真正履行协议，但我认为他们想要这个协议。

And I don't think China's gonna live up to the deal, but I think they want the deal.

我认为他们比世界上任何其他国家都更理解真人秀式的总统执政方式，也更懂得如何让特朗普总统获得胜利，并且他们不希望这场冲突持续下去。

I think they understand the reality TV presidency better than any other country in the world, and they understand how to give president Trump a win, and that they don't want this extended conflict.

我认为更有趣的是推测，除了美国之外，哪个国家——比如以色列——将从这场局势中获益最多，那就是俄罗斯。

I I think it's actually much more interesting to speculate about how, I mean, the country aside from The United States that like, and Israel that is gonna profit the most from this is Russia.

我的意思是，油价在一段时间内大幅上涨，这对俄罗斯来说简直是太好了。

I mean, oil prices are significantly up for a period of time, this is Russia Oh, that's sick.

他们会因此得到帮助。

Gonna get helped out.

而且关于俄罗斯的报道，多年来一直都说情况糟糕透顶。

And the reporting out of Russia, I mean, the reporting out of Russia for years has been that it sucks.

但你知道，最终，糟糕到一定程度，连俄罗斯人都不得不推翻沙皇。

But you know, eventually, it's gonna suck enough for even the Russians to have to throw down the czar.

但我的意思是，那里的状况一直都很糟糕。

But I mean, things have been really bad there.

他们一直靠胶带和各种巧妙的利率操作勉强维持着经济。

They've been keeping the economy together with scotch tape and interesting interest rate moves and everything else.

如果你的油价出现有意义的上涨，哪怕只持续一个月，这也会在俄乌战争的关键谈判阶段对俄罗斯大有帮助。

And if you get a meaningful increase in the price of oil, even if it's for a month, I mean, that helps Russia at a particularly crucial point in the war with Ukraine with the negotiation.

是的。

Oh, yeah.

百分之百。

100%.

我认为，这种一切相互关联的逻辑在这里开始失效了，因为这确实可能延长俄罗斯继续打乌克兰战争的意愿。

I think that that's where this kind of like everything is connected breaks down because, yeah, this does potentially extend Russian willingness to fight the war in Ukraine.

我的意思是，归根结底，石油总会卖给中国，所以别过度强调中国之前从伊朗或委内瑞拉购买石油这一点。

I mean, Look, at the end of the day, when it comes to oil, someone's going to sell oil to China, so don't over index to the fact that China was buying from Iran or Venezuela.

如果中国不得不为石油多花一点钱，中国的经济也不会因此崩溃。

If China has to spend a little bit more on oil, the Chinese economy is not going to collapse because of that.

中国经济本身就已经有问题，但它有大量的石油储备。

Chinese economy has problems already, but it's got plenty of oil in storage.

它还有通往俄罗斯的管道。

It has pipelines into Russia.

它会从沙特阿拉伯购买石油。

It's going to buy oil from Saudi Arabia.

如果中国再也无法从委内瑞拉和伊朗获得石油，世界照样会继续运转。

The world will go on for China if it can no longer get it from Venezuela and Iran.

我不明白，为什么大家都觉得这跟中国有这么大关系。

I'm I am confused by how much everybody thinks this is about China.

不过，我认为特朗普总统会看到网上这些胡言乱语，然后他会说，是的。

I do think, however, that president Trump is gonna see all this nonsense online, and he's gonna be like, yeah.

这全都是关于中国的。

This was all about China.

你知道的吧？

You know?

这些线索都是连在一起的。

The dots are connected.

但其实不是这样的，老兄。

And it's like, no, bro.

我们都知道你这么做的原因。

Like, we know why you did this.

你知道，在委内瑞拉，你不想看到一个在拉丁美洲公然敌视美国的国家。

You know, in Venezuela, you want you don't want to have a country that's openly hostile to The US in Latin America.

这说得通。

Like, that's fair.

而在伊朗，2025年的袭击事件证明了它其实很脆弱。

And in Iran, it's a country that the attacks of twenty twenty five proved was vulnerable.

他曾试图与他们达成协议。

He tried to make a deal with them.

他提出了若干条件和要点，但他们不愿意放弃弹道导弹。

He gave them a number of issues, a number of points, and they didn't want to give up the ballistic missiles.

顺便说一下，关于这一点的报道非常有趣。

The reporting is very interesting, by the way, on that.

报道显示，他们本愿意在核计划上做出全部让步。

The reporting suggests that they were willing to give up everything on the nuclear program.