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成千上万的企业,从初创公司到财富500强,都在选择使用Framer构建他们的网站。
Thousands of businesses, from early stage startups to Fortune five hundreds, are choosing to build their websites in Framer.
只需点击一下,您在Framer网站上的更改就能在几秒钟内实时上线。
Changes to your Framer site go live to the web in seconds with just one click.
无需工程团队协助即可发布,帮助您的团队减少依赖,实现加速发展。
Publish without help from engineering, helping your team reduce dependencies and reach escape velocity.
了解如何从Framer专家那里获得更多关于your.com的建议,或立即免费开始构建,访问 framer.com/hardfork 享受Framer Pro年计划30%折扣。
Learn how you can get more out of your.com from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com/hardfork for 30% off a Framer Pro annual plan.
规则和限制可能适用。
Rules and restrictions may apply.
凯西,你听说今年CES展会上大放异彩的那款新车了吗?
Casey, did you hear about the new vehicle that stole the show at CES this year?
哪款车?
What vehicle
是哪一款?
is that?
它来自我们的好朋友威尔。
It was from our good friend, Will.
就是黑眼豆豆乐队的阿姆。
Am, of the Black Eyed Peas
哦,是吗。
Oh, yeah.
我们曾经采访过他,那真是一次非常奇特的体验,我称之为迷幻之旅。
Who we interviewed once in a very, I would describe as a psychedelic experience.
简直是完全疯狂的一天。
Absolute fever dream of a day.
他现在推出了一款全新的电动AI驱动的‘车轮上的大脑’。
Well, he is out with a new electric AI powered brain on wheels.
这本质上是一辆电动三轮车。
It is essentially an electric tricycle.
它叫Trinity,而且
It's called Trinity, and
它
it
看起来疯狂极了。
looks insane.
我可以给你看看
Can I show
这个吗?
you this?
来看这个。
To see this.
好的。
Okay.
天哪。
Oh my goodness.
这看起来就像《异形》里的异形头被砍下来后,安上了轮子。
This looks like the head of the xenomorph in alien has been decapitated and has had wheels attached to it.
是的。
Yes.
它看起来疯狂极了。
It looks insane.
它就像一辆有顶棚的三轮电动滑板车。
It's like a three wheeled electric sort of scooter with a top over it.
非常流线型,非常符合空气动力学。
Very sleek, very aerodynamic.
我个人真想死在这样一辆车里。
I personally would love to die in one of these.
对。
Yeah.
我真希望被一辆十八轮大卡车彻底撞飞在这样一辆车里。
I would love to just be absolutely demolished by an 18 wheeler in one of these.
这实际上真的会像,只是
This actually does like, just
看着这个,我觉得这看起来会是他最青睐的交通工具。
looking to this, this does seem to me like it would be will.
我。
I.
是他最喜欢的出行方式。
Am's favored mode of transportation.
比如,我可以想象他。
Like, I can just imagine him.
该送孩子们上学了,他会说:‘都进来吧,伙计们。’
It's like time to take the kids to school, and he's like, get in this thing, guys.
我们肯定会迟到两千分钟。
We're gonna be 2,000 and late.
这是个黑眼珠合唱团的笑话。
That's a Black Eyed Peas joke.
让我们开始这场派对吧。
Let's get this party started.
我是凯文·罗斯,《纽约时报》的科技专栏作家。
I'm Kevin Roose, a tech columnist at the New York Times.
我是来自Platformer的凯西·牛顿。
I'm Casey Newton from platformer.
这里是Hard Fork。
And this is hard fork.
本周,《焦虑的一代》作者乔纳森·海特带着关于社交媒体如何伤害青少年的新研究重返节目。
This week, anxious generation author Jonathan Hite returns to the show with new research on how social media is harming teens.
然后我们向你们征集了你们的Claude Code实验,
Then we asked you for your Claude Code experiments,
你们的表现让我们惊叹不已。
and you blew us away.
我们会分享一些我们最喜欢的作品。
We'll share some of our favorites.
最后,我们将前往Fortniverse世界。
And finally, it's a trip to the Fortniverse.
成千上万的听众已经加入了我们的Fetiverse实验,搜索引擎主持人P.J. Vogt今天来和我们聊聊我们到目前为止的发现。
Thousands of you have now joined our Fetiverse experiment, and Search Engine host PJ Vogt is here to talk about what we've learned so far.
比如弗拉基米尔·普京?
Such as Vladimir Putin?
他是个麻烦。
He's a problem.
不是个好人。
Not a good guy.
好吧,基斯,我们这期节目内容很丰富。
Well, Kees, we got a big show this week.
要聊的话题很多,但先从社交媒体开始吧,因为那个领域最近发生了不少事。
Lots to talk about, but let's start with social media because there's been a lot happening in that world.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道吗,上周我们谈到了Grok的通知丑闻,这周又出了更多相关新闻。
You know, last week, we talked about the notification scandal over at Grok, and there's been a bunch more news about that this week.
美国参议院在周二通过了一项法案,允许受害者就这些非自愿的性裸照的制作提起诉讼。
The US Senate managed to pass a bill on Tuesday that would allow victims of these sorts of nonconsensual sexually explicit images to sue over, you know, the the creation of those images.
是的。
Yeah.
此外,Grok 也取消了免费用户使用图像生成功能的权限。
And Grok also rolled back its image generation feature for free users.
你现在必须成为付费用户才能在 Grok 上未经他人同意发送通知。
You now have to be a paid user to Grok notify people against their consent.
犯罪行为现在成了高级功能。
Commit a crime, that's a premium feature now.
明白吗?
Okay?
这将被放在付费墙之后。
That's gonna be behind the paywall.
对。
Yes.
所以他们当然没有完全取消这一功能,因为这为他们带来了巨大的参与度,但他们似乎也承认有些人走得太过分了。
So they are not, rolling that back fully, of course, because it is generating a huge amount of engagement for them, but they do seem to acknowledge that some people were taking it too far.
没错,凯文。
That's right, Kevin.
正是这种在社交媒体上发生的现象,促使我们本周的嘉宾大力发声,认为对于年轻人来说,我们实际上应该让他们完全远离这些东西。
And it is really this exact sort of phenomenon that is happening on social media that has led our guests this week to really lead a charge and say, when it comes to younger people, we actually just need to keep them away from this stuff altogether.
是的。
Yes.
我们今天的嘉宾乔纳森·海特的名字,对于长期收听《Hardfork》的听众来说应该不陌生。
This name of our guest today, Jonathan Hite, will be familiar to longtime Hardfork listeners.
他曾在2024年3月节目上做客,当时他的书《焦虑的一代》刚刚出版。
He came on the show back in March 2024 when his book, The Anxious Generation, came out.
自那以来,这本书已成为超级畅销书。
Since that time, that book has become a mega bestseller.
乔纳森已成为推动学校禁用手机、以及类似我们在澳大利亚讨论的那些社交媒体限制措施的领军人物,而这些措施刚刚生效。
Jonathan has become a leading advocate for things like phone bans in schools and these social media restrictions like the one we talked about in Australia that just went into effect.
关于海特的论点——社交媒体和智能手机的广泛使用正在损害儿童和青少年的心理健康——已经引发了大量讨论,人们也对这本书中的科学依据展开了激烈争论,质疑海特及其他研究者引用的、用以证明社交媒体伤害儿童的研究是否经得起推敲。
And there's been a lot of discussion about Height's thesis that social media and widespread smartphone use is harming mental health for kids and teens, and a lot of arguments about the science in that book, whether the studies that Height and others have cited as proof that social media is harming children are actually holding up under scrutiny.
嗯。
Mhmm.
事实上,凯文,乔纳森·海特和他的合著研究者扎卡里·劳什本周发布了新的研究,这给了我们一个理由再次邀请他来到节目中。
And as a matter of fact, Kevin, Jonathan Height and his fellow researcher, Zachary Rausch, have new research out this week, which gave us an excuse to bring him back on the show.
是的。
Yes.
乔纳森和扎卡里的这项新研究旨在回应外界对其著作的主要批评之一,即相关性与因果关系之间的区别。
And this new research by Jonathan and Zachary is designed to address one of the primary criticisms that his book got, which was about the difference between correlation and causation.
所以我们将会讨论这项研究,也会聊聊自他的书出版以来所发生的变化。
So we're gonna talk about that research, and we're also gonna talk about what's been happening since his book came out.
对。
Yeah.
他如今已成为全球反对社交媒体的领军人物。
As he has become the world's hater in chief of social media.
那我们请乔纳森·海特进来吧。
So let's bring in Jonathan Hite.
乔纳森·海特,欢迎再次做客《硬核》节目。
Jonathan Hite, welcome back to Hard Fork.
谢谢你们两位。
Thank you, guys.
很高兴能回来。
Great to be back.
你一直
You've been
忙得不可开交。
a busy man.
你最初来参加我们节目时,正是你的《焦虑的一代》一书刚刚面世之际。
You joined us originally just as your anxious generation book was going out into the world.
这本书现在已经连续八十八周登上《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜。
The book has now spent eighty eight weeks on the New York Times bestseller list.
卖出了很多本,引发了全球范围的讨论,并催生了后续项目,比如你和我的朋友凯瑟琳·普赖斯合著的《了不起的一代》,这本书是面向儿童和青少年的。
That's a lot of Sold a bunch of copies, led to discussions all around the world and follow on projects like a book you and my friend Catherine Price just wrote called the amazing generation, which is aimed at kids and teens.
现在你带着关于社交媒体与心理健康问题的新论文回来了。
And now you are back with a new paper or papers about this issue of social media and mental health.
你在Substack上发布了一篇名为《证据山》的新文章,今天你来这里就是谈这个的。
You have a new post on your Substack called mountains of evidence, and you're here to talk about that today.
所以,给咱们简单说说重点吧,乔纳森。
So just give us the TLDR here, Jonathan.
自从你的书出版以来,你的研究中最重要的新发现是什么?
What is the most important new finding in your research since your book came out?
当我的书出版时,我认为主要问题是心理健康。
So when my book came out, I thought that the main problem was mental health.
学术界对此有很大争议。
And there's a big debate in the academic world.
好吧。
Well, okay.
使用社交媒体越多的人越抑郁,但这是相关性还是因果关系?
People who use social media more are more depressed, but is that correlation or is it causation?
这在一定程度上定义了这场辩论的范围,而且这种争论已经持续了几年。
And that has kinda defined the scope of the debate, and that's gone on for a couple of years now.
这也是马克·扎克伯格为自己辩护时的说法。
And it's what Mark Zuckerberg says to defend himself.
哦,根本没有因果关系的证据。
Oh, there's no evidence of causation.
那你说怎么样?
Well, guess what?
有大量确凿的因果关系证据,而Meta自己就做过一些最出色的研究来证明这一点。
There are tons and tons of evidence of causation, and Meta did some of the best studies to show it.
有非常多不同类型的证据,包括孩子们自己怎么说、父母怎么说、老师怎么说。
There's so many different kinds of evidence, including what the kids themselves say, what the parents say, what the teachers say.
每个人都能看到这一点。
Like, everybody sees it.
这就是证据。
That's evidence.
此外,还有一些通过随机分组进行的实验表明,当你至少一周不使用社交媒体时,抑郁情绪会减轻。
And then there are experiments that with random assignment that show that when you get off social media for at least a week, depression gets less.
因此,我正在为这篇综述论文收集所有这些证据。
So I was collecting all that evidence for this big review paper.
这是两个项目中的一个。
That's one of the two projects.
在我们研究这个项目的同时,Meta在州检察长对其提起的诉讼中又披露了更多研究数据。
And while we were working on that, there was additional dumps of studies from Meta that come out in the attorney general's lawsuits against them.
他们把这些数据发布在网上,其中包含各种信息。于是我们在一个新网站上整理了这些内容,网站名为 metasinternalresearch.org,其中包含几项真正的实验。
They post them online, and there's all kinds of information in the So we cataloged them at a new website we put up called metasinternalresearch.org, and that includes a couple of true experiments.
因此,关于因果关系的证据现在已经压倒性地充分了。
So the evidence for causality is now overwhelming.
人们必须停止说,哦,这仅仅是相关性。
People have to stop saying, oh, it's just correlational.
所以当你说到因果关系的证据已经压倒性地充分时,能为我们详细解释一下吗?
So when you say the evidence for a causality is overwhelming, break that down for us a little bit.
比如,你认为社交媒体对儿童有害的机制是什么?
Like, what is your understanding of the mechanisms by which social media is harmful to children?
是的。
Yes.
于是,举报人阿图罗·贝哈尔公布了Meta进行的一项调查,即‘负面体验与遭遇框架’。
So Arturo Behar, a whistleblower, brought out this survey that Meta did, the bad experiences and encounters framework.
Meta自身已经做了大量研究。
So Meta itself, they've done tons of research.
他们收集了孩子们都在说些什么?
They collected, you know, what are kids saying?
他们身上发生了什么?
What's happening to them?
他们发现的是,让我们看看。
What they found is let's see.
他们每周遭受性骚扰的比例高达百分之十五。
They get very high rates of sexual harassment around fifteen percent each week.
每周,都会有人对他们进行性方面的骚扰。
Each week, they have some some person approaching you sexually.
所以他们经常遇到这种情况。
So they get a lot of that.
我们再看看他们还有什么发现。
Let's see what else do they have here.
他们还遭受欺凌。
They get bullying.
他们目睹暴力行为。
They they see violence.
他们看到硬核色情内容。
They see hardcore porn.
哦,我认为最明显、最突出的是性勒索。
Oh, the biggest clearest one, I think, actually is sextortion.
这个是最显眼、最突出的问题。
That's the one that just stands out like a sore thumb.
你知道吗,孩子们,如果你在社交媒体上,就可能遭遇性勒索。
You know, kids if you're on social media, you can get sextorted.
如果你不在社交媒体上,就基本不会。
If you're not, you can't really.
而那些遭遇性勒索的孩子会感到深深的羞耻。
And the kids who get sex dorted are deeply shamed.
你知道,他们分享了自己的照片,通常是这些青少年男孩。
You know, they shared a picture of themselves, these teenage boys usually.
然后他们的生活就被毁了,有些人甚至选择了自杀。
And then their lives are ruined, some of them commit suicide.
所以,我只是想说,孩子们受到伤害的方式多种多样,而抑郁和焦虑只是其中的一部分。
So, anyway, I'm just saying, there's so many different mechanisms by which kids are getting harmed, and depression and anxiety is just that those are
这只是其中的两条途径。
just two of the pathways.
所以你的意思是,这并不是某一个单一的原因。
So you're saying that it it's not any one thing.
你的意思是,整个环境如此危险,以至于长时间使用像Instagram这样的社交网络,几乎不可能不以某种方式遭遇其中一种或多种伤害?
You're saying that the overall environment is so dangerous that it is difficult, maybe impossible to use a social network like Instagram over an extended period of time and not have one or likely multiple of these harms hit you in some way?
这个回答让我有点惊讶,因为通常我们听到的说法是:嗯,是负面的社会比较。
That that answer somewhat surprises me because I feel like the usual answers we hear is like, well, it's negative social comparison.
对吧?
Right?
比如,感觉朋友们的生活比我精彩多了,于是我感到沮丧。
Like, it seems like my friends are living a more exciting life than I am, and now I'm upset.
或者,算法把我带进了漩涡,我本来只是对减肥有点好奇,结果现在得了饮食失调。
Or, like, the algorithm has driven me into a rabbit hole, and, like, I started out a little curious about losing weight, and now I have an eating disorder.
是的。
Yeah.
那么,自从你写了这本书以来,你对这些伤害机制的理解有没有发生变化,如果有的话?
So, like, how has your understanding of, like, the the mechanisms of harm changed, if it has at all since you wrote your book?
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
当然。
Sure.
当我开始写这本书时,我以为故事会是女孩们使用社交媒体,因社会比较而变得抑郁。
So when I started the book, I thought that the story was gonna be girls using social media get depressed in part by social comparison.
五年前,大家都在谈论这个,你知道的。
That's what everyone was talking about, you know, five years ago.
这确实是其中一种机制。
And that's definitely one of the mechanisms.
但我刚开始时,并不知道男孩们的状况会是怎样的。
And I didn't know what the story was for boys when I started.
到了书的结尾,尤其是书出版之后,我意识到,问题在于整个该死的环境。
And by the end of the book, and especially since the book came out, what I realized is it's the whole goddamn environment.
是所有摆在男孩们面前的诱饵。
It's all the fishhooks dangled in front of boys.
你想看色情内容、赌博、电子烟、体育博彩,你知道吗,甚至加密货币投资也被游戏化了。
You want porn, gambling, vaping, sports betting, you know, even crypto investing is gamified.
在这篇论文中,你试图将两个问题区分开来。
In this paper, you've tried to sort of decouple two questions.
其中一个是你所说的‘历史性人口问题’,基本上就是对‘焦虑的一代’这一论点的重述,即整个在社交媒体环境中成长的一代人,正因这项技术而出现各种心理健康问题。
One of them is what you call the historical population question, basically, like, the sort of restatement of the thesis of the anxious generation, which is like, you know, an entire generation raised on social media is demons you know, is showing all these effects on their mental health from this this technology.
另一个则是纯粹的产品安全问题。
And the other is just the sort of product safety question.
这些产品目前的形态对儿童和青少年来说是否安全?
Are these products as currently constituted safe for children and teens?
你为什么要将这两个问题区分开来呢?
What are you trying to do by sort of decoupling these questions?
我来告诉你我是怎么理解的。
I'll tell you how I read that.
我理解为:哦,原来如此。
I read that as like, oh, hey.
他在论证的两个方面之一上有点站不住脚,基本上是在说,我们可能能够解决这个历史人口问题,也可能解决不了。
Height is getting a little wobbly on one of the two sort of prongs of his argument there, basically saying, you know, we may or may not be able to solve this historical population question.
但关于产品安全这个问题,我们现在就能给出答案。
But when it comes to this the question of product safety, we can answer that one now.
我这样理解对吗?
So am I reading that correctly?
嗯,没错,不过我
Well, yes, you are, except I
不会用‘摇晃’这个词。
wouldn't use the word wobbly.
让我来解释一下。
So let me explain that.
我之所以想把这两个问题分开,是因为2023年底国家科学院、工程院和医学研究院发布了一份报告。
My interest in separating the two questions came about because there was this report issued by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in late twenty twenty three.
报告发布后,其中有一章列出了所有这些伤害,以及它如何损害儿童的各种方式。
And the report comes out, and it has a chapter showing all these harms, all these ways that it's harming kids.
但在报告的摘要中,有一句话。
But yet in the in the summary of the report, there was this sentence.
它说:我们的审查并未支持社交媒体导致青少年群体健康状况发生变化的结论。
It says, our review, quote, did not support the conclusion that social media causes changes in adolescent health at the population level.
所以我读了这句话。
So I read this.
我当时想:你们在搞什么鬼?
I'm like, what the hell, guys?
你们有一整章都在展示它是如何伤害孩子的。
You have a whole chapter showing how it's hurting kids.
什么是‘群体层面’的意思?
What does it mean, the population level?
通过进一步阅读,我明白了,他们的意思是:我们并不确信正是这一点导致了2012年之后的大幅增长。
And what I realized by reading further, what they mean is we're not confident that this is what caused those big increases after 2012.
好吧,他说得对。
And, okay, he's right.
因为你怎么证明历史上发生过某件事呢?
Because how do you prove something happened in history?
这非常困难。
It's very hard.
你无法做实验。
You can't run experiments.
所以我承认,我无法100%确定我在《焦虑的一代》中所说的内容是正确的。
So I will grant that we can't be a 100% certain that what I said in the anxious generation is right.
无法100%确定。
Can't be a 100 certain.
我很想听听其他假设,但历史问题很难得出定论。
I'd love to hear another hypothesis, but the historical question is very hard to settle.
但人们并不想知道这个。
But that's not what people wanna know.
父母和立法者想知道的是,这个所有孩子都在大量使用的消费品,是否正在伤害孩子们?
What parents wanna know and what legislators wanna know is, is this consumer product, which all kids are consuming massive quantities of, is this consumer product hurting kids?
这就是他们想知道的。
That's what they wanna know.
你猜怎么着?
And guess what?
我们有七条不同的证据表明:是的。
We have seven different lines of evidence saying, yes.
它正在伤害孩子。
It's hurting kids.
孩子们自己这么说。
The kids say it.
老师们也这么说。
The teachers say it.
实验结果也表明了这一点。
The experiments say it.
相关性分析和元分析也支持这一点。
The correlate and meta.
我的天啊。
I mean, my god.
他们掌握的关于伤害的数据令人震惊。
The the data they have on harm is astonishing.
所以这就是为什么我认为有必要将这两个问题区分开来。
So that's why I think it's important to separate the two questions.
在科学和社会科学中,我们对因果关系非常谨慎。
In science and social science, we're very careful about causality.
在断言x导致y之前,我们必须确信因果关系的存在。
We have to be certain about causality before we say x caused y.
因此,我不能肯定地说社交媒体导致了2012年的大幅增长,但我可以肯定地说,目前我对‘社交媒体正在以数百万计的方式伤害孩子’这一点有99.9%的把握。
And so I can't say that I'm certain that social media caused the big increase in 2012, but I can say I am 99.9% confident at this point that social media is hurting kids by the millions.
你对这些科技高管持批评态度,这完全可以理解,而且我认为是恰当的。
You're understandably and I think appropriately very critical of the the tech executives here.
但我也要指出,父母给了孩子们这些手机,学校允许了,而监管机构十年来却无所作为。
But I'd also note that parents gave kids these phones and schools allowed them and regulators did nothing for a decade.
那么,如果我们为这种情况归责,其他人该承担多少责任呢?
So if we're assigning blame for this situation, how much falls on everyone else involved?
我认为几乎为零,原因如下。
I would say close to zero for this reason.
解决这个问题的关键,也是我们长期以来未能解决的原因,在于这是一系列集体行动陷阱。
The whole key to solving this problem, the reason we didn't solve it for so long is that it's a series of collective action traps.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我是一名社会心理学家。
And I'm a social psychologist.
我们的工作就是研究人与人之间如何相互影响,而在某些情况下,比如,我不想给我十岁的孩子一部手机,但别人都有。
What we do for a living is we look at the ways that we influence each other, and there are certain situations where, you know, yeah, I don't I I don't wanna give my my 10 year old a phone, but, you know, everyone else has one.
她会被孤立。
She's being left out.
所以手机和社交媒体这些东西,把我们困住了,让我们觉得不得不屈服。
So the phones and the and social media, all these things, they put us in a trap, and so we feel we have to give in.
既然情况是这样,我不能责怪这些人。
And so since that's the situation, I can't blame the people.
我的原则是,作为一个社会心理学家。
My rule is a social psychologist.
如果一个人做了很糟糕的事,那可能是个坏人。
If one person does something really bad, that might be a bad person.
但如果在某种情况下每个人都做了坏事,那一定是因为环境本身很糟糕。
If everybody in a situation is doing something bad, that's guaranteed to be a bad situation.
所以,不。
So no.
我不责怪,我的意思是,你看。
I don't blame I mean, look.
当然,父母应该站出来尽到为人父母的责任。
Of course, parents should stand up and parent.
但你看。
But look.
我们很多人都在努力,但这真的非常困难。
So many of us are trying, and it's really, really hard.
是的。
Yeah.
每个人都一直在和孩子就这些科技产品发生争执。
It's really, really everybody's fighting all the time with their kids over this tech.
我们并没有主动寻求这些争执。
We didn't ask for these fights.
所以我并不责怪父母。
So I don't blame the parents.
我也不会责怪老师。
I don't blame the teachers.
对。
Yeah.
我责怪的是这些公司。
I blame the companies.
约翰,自从我们上次和你交谈以来,你的生活发生了不小的变化。
John, your life has changed quite a bit since we last talked to you.
你的职业已经从纯粹的研究和公共知识分子,转变为在这个问题上积极倡导的活动家。
Your career has shifted from just, you know, being sort of more of a pure research and public intellectual to really being an activist on this issue.
我很想知道,对你来说,这种转变是什么样的?你在新的倡导者角色中学到了什么?
And I'm curious what that's been like for you and what you've learned about advocacy in this new role of yours.
到底是什么能让那些最初对你的观点持保留态度的人改变想法?
What actually seems to change people's minds who may be reluctant when they first encounter some of the ideas you are pushing?
嗯。
Mhmm.
不。
No.
谢谢你这么说。
Well, thank you for that.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
It's true.
我的生活发生了很大变化。
My life has changed a lot.
你知道,我长期从事学者和研究工作,并创办了多个组织,试图将行为科学的研究成果转化为帮助重要机构更好地运作的实践。
You know, I've been a scholar and a researcher for a very long time, and I've started multiple organizations that try to translate findings from behavioral sciences to help important institutions work better.
这可以说是我的学术使命。
That's kind of my mission statement as an academic.
因此,我的职业生涯中一直都在做这类事情。
So I've done some of that throughout my career.
当《焦虑的一代》在2024年3月出版时,我原本只想推广几个月,然后暑假休息一下,恢复精力,再回去写我那本关于民主的重磅著作。
And when the anxious generation came out in March 2024, I thought I was gonna promote it for a few months, take the summer off, recover, and then get back to work on the big book I'm supposed to write on democracy.
但这件事突然爆红,世界各地的母亲们纷纷站出来,说:‘我们该怎么加入?’
But because this whole thing blew up and because mothers around the world stood up and started saying, where do we sign up?
我们行动吧。
Let's go.
让我们改变吧。
Let's change.
我们必须拯救我们的孩子。
We gotta save our kids.
有这么多人来找我,问我能怎么帮忙?
So many people are coming to me saying, how can I help?
我们能做些什么?
What can we do?
立法者给我打电话。
Legislators were calling me.
州长们给我打电话。
Governors were calling me.
因为事情是这样的。
Because here's the thing.
如果你是父母,你一定已经看到了。
If you're a parent, you've seen it.
每个人都看到了这个问题,但没人真正知道该如何应对,因为这是一个集体行动困境。
Everybody has seen the problem, and nobody really knew what to do about it because it's a collective action trap.
因此,既然这本书提出了四种摆脱困境的规范:上高中前不使用智能手机,16岁前不使用社交媒体,无手机学校,以及更多自由玩耍和现实世界中的责任感。
And so since the book proposed four norms to get out of the trap, no smartphone before high school, no social media before 16, phone free schools, more independence free play, and responsibility in the real world.
我提出了这四项规范,现在世界各地的人们都在采纳,甚至包括我从未去过的国家。
I proposed these four norms, and people are adopting them all around in other countries that I haven't even been to.
于是我意识到,我已经62岁了。
So I realized I'm 62.
上帝知道,我还能拥有多少年思维清晰的时光。
God knows how many years I have left with a brain that's still functioning.
你知道,我不能指望超过十年。
You know, I can't count on more than ten.
那么,我该如何度过这些剩余的宝贵岁月呢?
And so how am I gonna spend those remaining good years?
我可以再写一本关于民主的书,但等它出版时可能已经过时了,因为天啊,事物变化得太快了;或者,我可以全身心投入到推动无手机学校和提高使用年龄的事业中。
I could write another book on democracy, which should be out of date by the time it comes out because my god, things are changing fast, or I could devote myself to to pushing for phone free schools and raising the age.
是的
Yeah.
我很好奇。
I'm I'm curious.
我知道你可能无法告诉我们你与立法者、国家元首以及科技高管们进行的所有私人会面,但能否简单分享一下,你在四处奔波推广你的书、传达这一理念时,与某位重要或有影响力人士会面的一两个例子?
I know you probably can't tell us about all of the, you know, private meetings you're having with lawmakers and heads of state and, you know, tech executives, but just give us the flavor of, like, one meeting with someone important or influential as you've been schlepping all over, you know, hawking your book and and talking about this message.
是的
Yeah.
当然。
Sure.
让我感到意外的是,这件事竟然如此顺利,无论我去哪里,我都是在推开一扇扇敞开的门,因为每个做父母的人都亲眼目睹了这个问题。
So, you know, the surprise for me has been how easy this has been, that everywhere I go, I'm pushing out open doors because everyone who's a parent has seen it.
这在选民中非常受欢迎。
It's very popular among voters.
所以,我认为对你问题的最佳回答是这样的。
And so the the I think the best example of an answer to your question is this.
四月份的时候,我匆匆去了巴黎、阿姆斯特丹和伦敦。
I I did a quick trip to Paris, Amsterdam, and London back in April.
我与一个名叫More in Common的优秀组织合作,他们做各种支持民主的事务,他们为我安排了一场晚宴,让我与法国社会人士和精神病学家交流。
And I worked with More in Common, a wonderful group that does all kinds of pro democracy stuff, and they set up a dinner party for me to talk to members of French society and psychiatrists.
这真的很有意思。
It was really interesting.
其中一位与会者是法国国会议员,他说:‘你应该去见见马克龙。’
And one of the people there was was in the French parliament, and he said, oh, you should talk to Macron.
哦,我很想见他,但我两天后就要走了。
Oh, you know, I'd love to, but, you know, I'm leaving in two days.
他说:
He said,
“我来给他打电话。”
oh, I'll I'll I'll call him.
第二天,我就接到了马克龙办公室的电话。
And the next day, I get a call from Macron's office.
你明天能来吗?
Can you come in tomorrow?
所以我和马克龙进行了半小时的会面,我向他展示了数据,因为事先有人告诉过我。
So I had a half hour meeting with Macron in which I showed him the data because I was told in advance.
他喜欢数据。
He loves data.
你知道,你可以向他展示证据。
You know, you can show him show him evidence.
于是我向他逐一讲解了这些内容。
So I went through it with him.
我说,你看。
I said, look.
这就是正在发生的事情。
Here's what's happening.
你知道,这是我们所了解的情况。
You know, here's here's what we know.
他思考了一下,在和我告别时说:我们会采取行动。
And he thought about it, and he said as he was saying goodbye to me, he said, we will act.
他确实这么做了。
And he sure did.
你知道,他真的一直在推动。
He's, you know, he's really been pushing.
他当时对我说:我会推动这件事。
What he said to me then was, I'm gonna push it.
这应该是欧盟的事。
This should be an EU thing.
如果我们无法在欧盟通过,那我就在法国单独推进。
And if we can't get it through the EU, then I'll do it in France.
所以,我的意思是,那是最令人震惊的一次。
So that's just I mean, that was the most spectacular one.
我对此真的感到非常惊讶。
I I was really surprised by that.
但这正是我想说的,每个人都看得到。
But that's that's what I'm getting at, that everyone sees it.
每个人都关心这个问题。
Everyone cares about this.
约翰,现在有一群原告律师和律师事务所。
John, there's now this group of plaintiff's lawyers and law firms.
我相信你认识其中很多,并且以前也与他们合作过,他们在全国各地寻找社交媒体对儿童造成伤害的证据。
I'm sure you know many of them and have worked with them before who go around the country sort of looking for evidence of social media harms, especially against children.
他们提起这些大型诉讼,也就是集体诉讼。
They bring these big lawsuits, these class action suits.
他们起诉科技公司。
They sue the tech companies.
他们试图从这些公司那里获得巨额赔偿。
They try to get these huge settlements out of them.
我想知道你对这个体系有什么看法。
I'm curious what your thoughts on that system are.
自从您出版了那本书以来,这一现象已经大大发展,许多律师援引您的研究作为证据,主张这些公司应通过法院承担责任,并被迫向受害家庭支付巨额赔偿。
It's largely grown up since you published your book, and a lot of them cite your work as evidence that these companies should be held liable through the courts and should be forced to pay out huge settlements to the families of the victims here.
您是否认为,这是一种权宜之计,直到监管机构真正行动起来?
Are you comfortable with that as sort of a makeshift solution until regulators get their act together?
这是否是应对这些伤害的最佳方式?
Does that feel like an optimal way of addressing these harms?
我认为,这似乎是目前我们唯一可行的办法。
Well, I think it's it seems to be the only way that we have.
让我们设想一下,如果有一种新的消费品被推出,比如一种新玩具或一种含有新成分的糖果棒。
Let's imagine that there was a new consumer product introduced, you know, some new toy or a new kind of of candy bar with some new ingredient.
如果我们从公司内部报告中得知,他们故意设计产品使其成瘾,往里面添加了成瘾性成分。
And if we knew from internal reports from the companies that they deliberately designed it to be addictive, they put something addictive in it.
几年后,90%的孩子每天吃十根这种糖果棒,糖尿病发病率开始上升。
And then a couple years after introduction, ninety percent of kids are eating 10 candy bars a day, and diabetes is going up.
他们不再吃健康食品,全球相关发病率都在上升。
They're not eating healthy food, and we see rates rising around the world.
总有一天,会有人提出,也许这种产品并不安全。
At some point, there might be somebody who says, maybe this is not a safe consumer product.
也许这家公司应该为它对数亿儿童造成的伤害承担责任,确实是数亿儿童,因为几乎所有的孩子都在使用社交媒体。
Maybe this company should be held liable for the harm it's conflicting on literally hundreds of millions of kids, literally hundreds of millions, because social media is used by almost all kids.
我的意思是,在一些国家并不是这样。
I mean, there are some countries where it's not.
但在中高收入国家,几乎可以说是无处不在。
But in in the medium to high income countries, it's it's almost universal.
我们每个人都认识某个孩子因饮食失调或自杀而住院的人。
This is we all know someone who has a kid who's been hospitalized, eating disorder, suicide.
我们都认识这样的人。
We all know people.
这种情况无处不在。
It is everywhere.
而这些公司从未面对过陪审团。
And these companies have never faced a jury ever.
没有人成功追究过他们对孩子造成的伤害。
No one has succeeded in holding responsible what they did to their kids.
这简直令人愤慨。
So this is an outrage.
所以这些接手这些案件的律师,是的,他们是英雄。
And so these lawyers who are taking these cases, yeah, they're heroes.
乔纳森,这方面还有另一个维度,你知道,你的书自然聚焦于儿童危机,但成年人也在经历他们自己的版本。
You know, there's this other dimension to it too, Jonathan, which is that, you know, your book understandably focuses on the crisis with children, but adults are very much living their own version of this.
对吧?
Right?
比如,新年的时候我和一些朋友一起喝咖啡。
Like, I was having coffee with some friends at the New Year.
其中两人是科技公司的产品经理,我问他们:嘿。
Two of them are product managers in tech, and I asked them, hey.
你知道,你希望2026年围绕什么展开?
You know, what do you want your 2026 to be about?
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他们说,需要改变自己和手机的关系。
And they said, need to change my relationship with my phone.
他们已经实施了各种不同的方法。
And they have implemented so many different tricks.
他们把手机调成黑白显示。
They're they're putting it in black and white.
他们设置了屏幕使用时间限制。
They're setting screen time limits.
他们在睡觉前一小时就把手机放在另一个房间。
They're leaving it in another room an hour before they go to bed.
人们为了重新夺回自己的时间和注意力,不得不设计出越来越复杂的系统。
Like, the systems that people are having to devise just to try to reclaim their own time and attention are getting ever more sophisticated.
而这些人都在开发手机上的应用和功能。
And this is among the people who are building the things on the phones.
对吧?
Right?
所以我很想知道,你怎么看待将这些论点从童年延伸到成年阶段?因为在我看来,这远远超出了18岁以下孩子所面临的问题。
So I'm curious how you think about sort of bringing some of these same arguments out of childhood and into adulthood because it seems to me like this goes sort of well beyond what what is happening to kids 18.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
你完全正确。
You're absolutely right.
我认为这就是我们能够成功的原因。
And I think that's why we're winning.
这就是为什么在全球范围内,制定保护儿童的法律如此容易,因为我们所有人都看得很清楚。
That's why it's so easy to get laws to protect kids all over the world because we all see it.
我们所有成年人都曾感到不堪重负。
All of we we adults were all overwhelmed.
我也感到不堪重负。
I'm overwhelmed.
我再也读不进一本书了。
I can't read a book anymore.
有太多其他东西涌进来。
There's too much other stuff coming in.
我没有只关注成年人,是因为我不想为成年人立法。
I haven't focused on adults only because I don't wanna legislate for adults.
我的意思是,我不想告诉成年人该做什么,但天啊。
Like, I don't wanna tell adults what to do, but damn it.
我不希望那些公司未经我的知情或同意,就把我的孩子拉入有毒的网络空间。
I don't want the companies, you know, sucking my children into toxic spaces without my knowledge or permission.
本周,澳大利亚Meta公司根据一项新法律关闭了约55万个青少年账户,这项法律刚生效,禁止16岁以下儿童使用社交媒体。
To speak a little bit about Australia this week, Meta shut down about 550,000 accounts belonging to teens under this new Australian law that just went into effect banning social media for kids 16.
乔纳森,我很好奇你对澳大利亚即将发生的事情有什么预测,因为现在这似乎是一场绝佳的自然实验。
Jonathan, I'm so curious if you have a prediction about what is about to happen in Australia because it seems like we have this great natural experiment now.
你关注哪些方面?你有多大信心认为,只要把手机和社交媒体从学校里移除,孩子们的心理健康就会改善?
What are you looking for, and how confident are you that that that your own view that if you just simply remove phones and social media from schools that kids' mental health will improve?
好吧,把手机从学校里移除,我很快就会知道效果如何。
Well, removing phones from schools, we know I will know soon.
把整个社交媒体系统从学校里取消,似乎能显著提升注意力,减少友谊问题和纪律问题。
Removing the whole deal from schools seems to greatly improve attention, friendship, discipline problems go down.
所以在无手机学校里,数据正在不断涌入。
So on the phone free schools, the data is pouring in.
我从未听说过哪所学校对这一做法感到不满,或者将其逆转。
I've never heard of a school that was unhappy about it or that reversed it.
所以我相信我们会看到学习效果提升、友谊改善、校园乐趣增加,这意味着逃学率会下降。
So I'm sure we're gonna see that learning improves, friendship improves, fun in school improves, which means the truancy will go down.
我认为这将对学校的心理健康产生可衡量的影响。
And I think that will have a measurable impact on mental health that's in the schools.
现在澳大利亚的做法更加大胆,他们决定把责任推给公司。
Now what Australia did is even bolder, which is they said, we're going to put it on the companies.
我们要规定,必须年满16岁才能注册账户,签署协议同意在父母不知情或未经许可的情况下交出你的数据和权利。
We're gonna say that you have to be 16 to open an account where you sign a contract to give away your data, your rights, without your parents' knowledge or permission.
你得满16岁才能这么做。
You can't do that till you're 16.
16岁以后,你想做什么都可以。
At 16, you can do whatever you want.
但在16岁之前,你不能这么做。
But before 16, you can't do that.
所以这里有个问题。
And so here's the question.
澳大利亚有多少比例的孩子实际上会远离社交媒体?
What percentage of Australia's kids will actually be off of social media?
我们还不知道。
And we don't know.
如果澳大利亚的这项法案能有效将社交媒体使用率降低到20%以下,那么我认为随着时间推移,孩子们将不得不重新学会做一些除了刷屏之外的事情。
If the Australia bill is effective at getting social media use down below, say, 20%, then I think we will see over time, kids have to sort of remember how to do other things other than scroll.
我认为我们会看到积极的效果,尤其是如果澳大利亚全面推行这项计划的话,那就是说。
I think we will see benefits, especially if the Australians do the full program, which is, hey.
出去玩吧,这正是总理一直所说的话。
Go out and play, which is what the that's what the prime minister keeps saying.
他说,去足球场上玩吧。
Go out on the footy field, he says.
如果我们能成功恢复以玩耍为主的童年,我认为我们将看到心理健康方面的巨大改善。
So if we can succeed in restoring a play based childhood, then we're gonna see, I think, big benefits to mental health.
那么,我们应该让这个自然实验持续多久呢?
And, like, how long should we let that natural experiment run?
比如,五年后,如果澳大利亚年轻人的心理健康没有显著改善,你会不会得出结论:你的假设是错误的,只是我们没有给它足够长的时间?
Like, if five years from now, there's been no significant improvement in mental health among young people in Australia, would you conclude that this was a wrong hypothesis of yours that we just didn't let it run for long enough?
也就是说,我们应该在什么时候来评判这项干预措施的成功或失败?
Like, when should we sort of judge the success or failure of this intervention?
是的。
Yeah.
首先,告诉我当我们真正达到百分之六十或七十的孩子不再使用社交媒体时,效果才真正重要。
First of all, tell me when we get to, say, sixty or seventy percent of kids actually being off, and so the effectiveness matters.
这是一场猫鼠游戏,因此企业必须提升自己的应对水平。
And this is a cat and mouse game, so the companies are gonna have to up their game.
所以我们拭目以待吧。
So we'll we'll see.
但一旦我们达到大约70%的孩子真正脱离了屏幕,我们就打破了集体行动的困境。
But once we get to say 70% of kids are actually off, now we've broken the collective action trap.
现在孩子们可以脱离了。
Now kids can be off.
现在父母也更容易说不。
Now parents can say no more easily.
一旦我们达到那个阶段,我认为,一年内我们就会开始看到各种行为变化的报告。
And once we get there, I think, you know, within a year, we're gonna start seeing lots of reports of different behavior.
这些变化会在国家统计数据中体现出来吗?
Will that show up in the national statistics?
要过好几年才会体现出来。
Not for a couple years.
这些大型全国性调查要过几年才能反映出变化。
It takes a couple years before it'll show up in these big national surveys we have.
但如果五年后我们仍看不到任何改变,我就必须承认,我认为减少社交媒体使用能改善心理健康这个想法是错的。
But five years, if we don't see anything budge in five years, I would then have to conclude that I was wrong in thinking that reducing social media use would improve mental health.
但关键是。
But here's the thing.
整个争论一直围绕着心理健康展开。
This whole debate has been framed around mental health.
所以,如果它没有改善心理健康,我们就应该倒退回去吗?
And so if it doesn't improve mental health, does that mean we should undo it?
我会说不。
I would say no.
告诉我有多少孩子已经开始有性行为了。
I would say, tell me how many kids have been sex started.
告诉我有多少孩子死于药物过量。
Tell me how many kids have died from drug overdose deaths.
让我们看看所有其他附带性的危害,然后才能判断这是否是一项好的政策。
Let's look at all the other ancillary harms, and then we can decide whether it was a good policy.
你知道吗,乔纳森,随着时间的推移,我必须说,我对你的观点越来越能理解了。
You know, Jonathan, over time, I have to say I have I have become more sympathetic to your point of view.
一开始,我完全站在言论自由的立场上,希望让孩子们能够在线交流,让他们自由探索兴趣,与志同道合的人建立联系。
Like, I started this debate very much coming from the viewpoint of free expression, wanting to let kids communicate themselves online, wanting them to be able to explore their interests, connect with people like them.
但随着时间推移,我越来越被产品安全这一论点所说服。
Over time, I have just become more persuaded by the product safety argument.
我阅读了那些内部文件。
I have read the internal documents.
我与这些公司的员工交谈过。
I have talked to the people who work at these companies.
我不认为他们真正关心或投入足够资源来保护儿童。
I do not believe that they care or are investing in protecting kids the way they should be.
对我来说,这个论点正逐渐占据上风。
And to me, that argument is just sort of starting to carry the day.
但在感恩节期间,我和我的嫂子聊了聊这些事。
But I was having a conversation with my sister-in-law about this stuff over Thanksgiving.
我们讨论了其中一些问题,她告诉我,她对我之前一集里说的一个观点有些异议,我说过,你从没听过有人会说,Instagram 对孩子真的很有好处。
We were talking about some of these issues, and she let me know that she kind of took issue with a a comment I'd made on a previous episode where I said, you know, the one argument that you never hear anybody making is that Instagram is really good for kids.
是的。
Yeah.
我从未
I haven't
听过这个观点。
heard it.
相信。
Believe.
是的。
Yeah.
我从未
I haven't
我还没听过这个说法。
heard that.
但你确实从一些人那里听过这种观点。
But and and you've heard it from some.
我嫂子向我提出了类似的观点,她说,比如我侄子,他有一个Instagram账号。
And and my sister-in-law made a version of this argument to me, which is that, you know, for my nephew, he has an Instagram account.
他13岁,能够探索自己的兴趣,比如体操和烹饪。
He's 13, and he is able to explore his interests, which include gymnastic and cooking.
所以当她观察他使用Instagram的方式时,她说,这在我看来基本上没什么问题。
And so when she, you know, looks at his own usage of Instagram, she says, this, like, basically seems okay to me.
我的问题是,在一个我们如果直接剥夺孩子这些渠道的世界里,你希望他们通过什么途径来探索自己的兴趣?
My question is, what avenues do you hope that children use to explore their interests in a world where we do just yank that away from them?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我想上次我来的时候,我们讨论过一个相关的话题,我说你必须把互联网和社交媒体区分开来。
So I think last time I was on, we talked about a related topic, and I said, you've gotta separate the Internet from social media.
社交媒体是互联网的一部分。
Social media is a part of the Internet.
它是最糟糕的部分之一。
It's one of the worst parts.
它是对孩子们伤害最大的部分。
It's the one that's hurting kids the most.
但你看。
But look.
我们所有参加这次通话的人,都足够年长,记得九十年代我们第一次接触互联网的时候。
All of us on this call, all the we're all old enough to remember the nineties when we first got a look at the Internet.
那真是太棒了。
It was amazing.
如果你是生活在农村地区的LGBTQ群体,突然间,你就能找到相关信息。
And, you know, if you're LGBTQ in in rural areas, suddenly, like, you can find information.
你能找到志同道合的人。
You can find people.
我的意思是,它以前把人们联系在一起的方式真的很棒。
There's I mean, it was amazing the way it brought people together.
所以我永远不会剥夺这一点。
So I would never take that away.
我绝不会说孩子们不应该上网。
I'm not I would never say kids shouldn't be on the Internet.
那么,他们是否也需要那些使用算法,根据情绪或表达的极端程度来推送最被点赞内容的平台呢?
So do they also need platforms that use algorithms to force feed them whatever content was most upvoted by people based on the extremity of its emotions or expressions?
你侄子从Instagram为他挑选内容中获益,而不是他自己搜索他想看的内容吗?
Does your nephew benefit from having Instagram pick what he sees as opposed to having him type in what he's looking for?
如果从孩子身上拿走社交媒体,我看不出有任何损失。
If you take away social media from kids, I don't see any loss.
是的。
Yeah.
我我
I I'm
很好奇,因为和凯西一样,我现在也相当兴奋。
curious because, like Casey, I am also pretty hype pilled at this moment in time.
我非常认同你所提出的观点。
I am pretty convinced of the arguments you're making.
但我认为我可能的一个批评是,对我来说,你似乎在打一场过去的战争。
But I would say the the one criticism I might have is, like, to me, it feels a little bit like you are fighting the last war.
因为当我去现在的高中,和高中生们交谈时,他们告诉我,我们现在都在和AI伴侣聊天。
Because when I go to schools, high schools now, and meet high school students, they tell me, like, we are talking with AI companions now.
这就是我们现在在做的事情。
That is the thing that we are doing.
我心中隐隐担忧的是,你可能会成功让全世界禁止十六岁以下青少年使用社交媒体,但随后会出现一个我们根本没注意到的新威胁。
And I I have this sort of fear in the back of my mind that, like, you will succeed at getting social media banned for under sixteens all over the world, and then it will be like, there's this new threat that we weren't even paying attention to.
嗯。
Mhmm.
到那时,我们会怀念青少年们还在使用社交媒体的时光——至少那时他们还在和真人交流,而不是这些AI伴侣。
And we will pine for the days when teens were using social media to at least at least they were communicating with other people and not these, like, AI companions.
所以,你有没有担心过,你没有跟上技术发展的步伐?
So do you worry at all that you you are you have sort of not kept pace with the state of the technology?
没有。
No.
这是出于这个原因的一个战略举措。
This is this is a strategic move for this reason.
人工智能太新了,而且变化得太快。
AI is so new, and it's morphing so fast.
在研究界,我们要花五到二十年才能搞清楚任何一件事。
And in the research community, it takes us five, ten, twenty years to figure anything out.
所以我们已经就社交媒体争论了很久。
So we've been arguing about social media for a long time.
我认为我们已经搞清楚了。
I think we've got it.
我觉得我在这件事上会赢。
I think I'm gonna win on this issue.
现在这已经变成一场普通的学术争论了。
Now it's a normal academic debate.
有一些研究人员查看数据后,看到了不同的东西。
There are researchers who look at the data, and they see something different.
但这是我思考这个问题的方式。
But here's the way I'm thinking about it.
如果我们无法在社交媒体问题上获胜,无法达成共识认为这是有害的并要求政府采取行动,如果我们连这一点都做不到,那我就干脆放弃人工智能了。
If we can't win on social media, if we can't get consensus that this is bad and that government should do something, if we can't win on that, then I just just give up on AI.
直接说游戏结束了。
Just say it's a game over.
我们的孩子就完了。
Our kids are gone.
我们再也见不到他们了。
They're we're never gonna see them again.
这些男孩们一辈子都会拥有性感的聊天机器人。
The boys are gonna have, you know, sexy chatbots their whole lives.
他们永远不会繁衍后代。
They're never gonna reproduce.
所以如果我们不能在社交媒体上获胜,那我们肯定也无法在人工智能领域获胜。
So if we can't win on social media, then we definitely can't win on AI.
而且既然我们在社交媒体上正在获胜,全球各国政府也开始意识到他们有责任保护孩子,但许多政府从未采取过任何行动,尤其是我们的联邦政府,从未做过任何一件事来保护孩子免受互联网伤害。
And since we are winning on social media and since governments around the world are waking up to the fact that they have an obligation to protect kids, a lot of them have never done anything, especially our federal government, not has never done a single thing, never ever, to protect kids on the Internet.
所以各国政府正在觉醒,如果我们能更快地在社交媒体上取得胜利,推迟孩子拥有手机的时间,增加户外活动,推行无手机学校,那我们还有希望,还有机会。
So governments are waking up, and so the faster we can win on social media and delaying phones and more play and phone free schools, then we have a chance, a chance.
至少我们还能努力去争取。
At least we can try to make the case.
就别让孩子在小学阶段接触手机了。
Just get it out of elementary school.
别让小孩子从小就和聊天机器人交谈。
Just don't don't let kids be talking with chatbots when they're little.
是的。
Mhmm.
你还会怀念你那冷门的学术生活吗?
Do you miss your your your obscure academic life at all?
当你成为公众知识分子、倡导者、神秘人物、有使命的人时,你会感到困扰吗?
Does it bother you to be a a public intellectual, an advocate, a man of mystery, a man on a mission?
是的。
Yes.
就这一点来说
In that
我现在一直在工作,真的很想整个夏天都休息一下。
I'm working all the time now, and I really wanna just take a take the summer off.
我想试着读读书。
I wanna try reading books.
所以我觉得,如果我读纸质书,也许就能读完一本了。
So I think if I read physical books, maybe I'll be able to finish one.
但我一直有一种成就感,觉得我为此努力了很久,现在仿佛得到了一个真正改变世界的机会。
But I have had a a feeling of efficacy, a feeling that, you know, I've been working on this for a long time, and I feel like now I've been gifted the chance to actually make a difference in the world.
这种满足感超越了我一生中经历过的任何东西。
And it's a kind of satisfaction beyond anything I've known in my life.
所以我确实怀念很多,但我现在其实非常有活力,最近也相当开心。
So I do miss a lot, but I'm actually really energized, and I'm actually pretty happy these days.
这太好了。
That's great.
你知道吗?
You know what?
我给你讲个故事。
I'll tell you this story.
去年年初我推广我的书时,四处拜访不同的出版社,当你真正成功时,他们唯一想听的推销点就是‘焦虑的一代’,但针对人工智能。
When I was pitching my book early last year, I was going around to to different publishers, and you know you've made it when they the only pitch they wanted was, like, the anxious generation but for AI.
每个出版社都这么说,我当时就回应说:不。
It was like, every publisher was like I was like, no.
这并不是我真正要讲的内容。
It's not really what I'm working on.
这会更像一部历史类作品。
It's gonna be more of a history thing.
他们问:你确定吗?
And they're like, are you sure?
你真的不想写《焦虑的一代》的AI版吗?
Are you sure you don't wanna write the anxious generation but for AI?
我当时说:是的。
Was I like, yes.
我很确定。
I'm sure.
我相当确定,约翰会去做那个。
I'm sure I'm pretty sure John's gonna do that.
但不管怎样,你已经引起了轰动。
But, anyway, you have made a splash.
而且,如果你有任何卖书的建议,今年秋天我会用上。
And, yeah, if if you have any tips on selling a book, I'll use them this fall.
好的。
Okay.
我很乐意读你的书,如果你需要有人读一读的话,因为我正在搬家,这正是我想问的。
I'd be happy to I'd be happy to read your if you want someone to to read a copy of because I am moving that's my next question.
你刚告诉我你已经没法读书了,所以我知道,我不太信得过你。
You just told me you can't read a book anymore, so I, you know, I don't trust you.
明年夏天我会试试。
Next summer, I'll try
读这本书。
to read it.
把它发给我电子版,我会把它导入到ChatCheekyTea里,让它给我逐章总结。
Send it to me electronically, and I'll and I'll and I'll then I'll feed it into chat cheeky tea, and it'll give me a chapter by chapter summary.
好。
Good.
好。
Good.
太好了。
That's great.
这正是我想要的。
That's what I'm going for.
在家换图表。
Change charts at home.
我得说,就连乔纳森·海特也让聊天机器人帮他读书,这让我感到非常安心。
I have to say, it's actually very comforting to me that even Jonathan Haidt is having chatty poutine read books for him.
因为显然我也是这么做的,但我对此感到内疚。
Because, obviously, I do that as well, but I feel bad about it.
但我现在会
But I would now I
我会觉得没问题。
would feel fine.
这是
This is
就是这件事。
the thing.
没人读过一本
No one has read a
书自2021年以来,他们都在撒谎。
book since 2021, and they're just lying about it.
人们在读某种类型的书,
The people are reading one kind of book,
那就是浪漫奇幻。
which is romantasy.
所以,如果我写过一本社会科学专著,我会试着把它设定在一个黑暗精灵彼此交配的世界里。
So if I ever wrote, like, a social science treatise, I would try to put it in a world where, like, dark fairies were having sex with each other.
约翰,你有想过这个吗?
Have you thought about that, John?
值得考虑一下。
Something to consider.
实际上
Actually
实际上,丽莎,这正是我们打开儿童读物的方式。
actually, Lisa, that is actually the way we open up our children's book.
好的。
Okay.
这不是性行为,但它确实就是如此。
It's not sex, but it is but it actually is.
它确实是以这种方式展开的。
It actually does open.
是的。
Yeah.
它确实以一个关于黑暗精灵的故事开头。
It does open with a story about dark fairies.
看那个。
Look at that.
巫师。
Wizards.
好的。
Okay.
顺便说一下,我喜欢
By the way, I love
大人们的讨好行为。
the pandering of the adults.
这是焦虑的一代。
It's the anxious generation.
但当你想直接和孩子们交流时,他们突然就变得很棒了。
But when you wanna talk directly to the kids, all of a sudden, they're amazing.
是的。
Yeah.
对于孩子们来说,最好还是保留一些希望。
For the kids, better hold out some hope.
没错。
That's true.
没错。
That's true.
是的。
Yeah.
好的,约翰。
Alright, John.
谢谢大家。
Thanks, guys.
谢谢,乔纳森。
Thanks, Jonathan.
好了,各位。
Alright, guys.
非常感谢你们再次邀请我。
Thanks so much for having me back.
保重。
Take care.
我们回来后,Claude代码会是新的ChatGPT时刻吗?
When we come back, is Claude code a new chat GPT moment?
我们会聊聊你们最近都在写什么代码,包括一个门把手网站。
We'll talk about what you all have been by coding, including a website for door handles.
我们该怎么处理这个问题?
How are we gonna handle that?
你好。
Hi.
我是《纽约时报》健康版的编辑洛里·莱博维奇。
This is Lori Leibovich, editor of Well at the New York Times.
健康和养生领域存在大量错误信息,但在《纽约时报》,无论话题是什么,我们都对所有内容应用相同的新闻标准,无论是肠道微生物组还是如何获得良好的睡眠。
There's a lot of misinformation in the health and wellness space, but at the New York Times, no matter what the topic, we apply the same journalistic standards to everything we write about, whether it's the gut microbiome or how to get a good night's sleep.
即使我们在讨论像‘空腹喝咖啡对我有害吗?’这样的问题。
Even if we're talking about something like, is it bad for me to drink coffee on an empty stomach?
我们的读者在阅读《健康》文章时所获得的每一条信息都经过了核实。
Everything that our readers get when they dig into a Well article has been vetted.
我们的记者正在咨询专家,联系数十人,并进行深入研究。
Our reporters are consulting experts, calling dozens of people, doing the research.
这个过程可能持续数月,以便您能为自己的身心健康做出明智的决定。
It can go on for months so that you can make great decisions about your physical health and your mental health.
我们格外认真地对待报道,因为我们知道《纽约时报》的订阅者依赖着我们。
We take our reporting extra seriously because we know New York Times subscribers are counting on us.
如果您已经订阅,谢谢您。
If you already subscribed, thank you.
如果您想订阅,请访问 nytimes.com/subscribe。
If you'd like to subscribe, go to nytimes.com/subscribe.
那么,凯西,这周对于Claude和Claude Code来说又是重要的一周,我觉得它似乎正经历着类似ChatGPT的时刻。
Well, Casey, it's been another big week for Claude and Claude Code, which I think seems to be having kind of a ChatGPT moment.
你知道吗,我这周早些时候给你发了条消息,我说,说Claude Code是自ChatGPT以来AI领域最重要的进展,这疯狂吗?
You know, I texted you earlier this week, and I said, is it crazy to say that Claude Code feels like the most important thing that has happened in AI since ChatGPT.
我意识到对一些听众来说,这可能听起来很疯狂,但我认为我们能提出有力的论据。
I realize that may sound crazy to some of our listeners, but I feel like we can make the case.
我也这么认为。
I think so too.
我觉得这是一个非常重要的时刻,尤其是对那些对编程感兴趣或好奇的人而言。
I think this is a big, big moment, especially for people who are sort of code inclined or code curious.
我们一直看到社交媒体上有很多关于人们使用Cloud Code进行实验的帖子。
We've continued to see many, many posts on social media about people's experiments with Cloud Code.
这似乎真的给Anthropic制造了一种基础设施危机,就像OpenAI在最初的ChatGPT时刻所经历的一样。
It seems like it is actually creating something of an infrastructure crisis for Anthropic, which is also something that happened to OpenAI during their original ChatGPT moment.
他们根本无法跟上需求,网站频频崩溃。
They just, like, could not keep up with the demand, and the site kept going down.
但我想说,更大的趋势是,非程序员也开始尝试这个工具。
But I would say, like, the larger thing that has been going on is that noncoders are starting to experiment with this tool.
Anthropic本周还发布了一个面向非程序员的Cloud Code版本,名为Cowork,它嵌入在Cloud桌面应用中,让你能够使用与Cloud Code相同的智能代理框架来尝试各种任务,但方式比打开终端应用更友好、没那么吓人。
Anthropic also released a version of Cloud Code for noncoders this week called Cowork, which sort of sits in the Cloud desktop app and allows you to sort of attempt various tasks using the same sort of agent like framework that Cloud Code uses, but in a way that's slightly less intimidating than opening up a terminal app.
是的
Yeah.
而且如果你想想
And and if you think
关于ChatGPT时刻意味着什么,那是数以百万计的人同时意识到,你可以提问并获得相当不错的回答,还可以为许多有用的目的生成文本。
about what the ChatGPT moment was, it was a time when millions and millions of people realized simultaneously that you can ask questions and get pretty good answers, and you can generate text for many, useful purposes.
我觉得Claude Code的时刻是下一个进化,人们开始说:即使我不太懂技术,现在我也能构建出对我有用的东西。
The Claude Code moment, feel like, is the next evolution where people are saying, I can now build something that is useful to me even though I don't really know what I'm doing.
而六个月前,我得到的结果可能很差,或者需要大量的技术知识,但现在我只需在框中输入内容,就能基本得到我想要的结果。
And whereas maybe six months ago, the results I would have gotten were pretty bad or would have required a lot of technical know how, I can now come in and I can type in a box and I can get basically exactly what I want.
这实际上意义重大。
And that is actually huge.
这意义重大。
It's huge.
过去一周我也经历了类似的情况,因为我开发的稍后阅读应用Stash,我们上周聊过我的氛围编程实验。
And I had a version of that experience myself too in the past week because the read it later app that I built Stash, we talked about my vibe coding experiment last week.
我收到了很多人的回复,他们说:嘿。
I got so many responses from people who are saying, hey.
我能用这个东西吗?
Can I use this thing?
你会不会把它发布到应用商店?
Are you gonna, like, distribute this and put it the App Store?
于是我决定:算了。
That I just decide, you know what?
我就这么做了。
I'm gonna do it.
我要把Stash发布给全世界。
I'm gonna release Stash to the world.
于是我让Claude Code帮我准备一个面向公众的版本,给我建了一个简单的着陆页。
And so I had Claude Code go in and, like, prepare a version of this for the public, build me a little landing page.
你现在可以去kevinruth.com/stash下载并亲自试试。
You can now download it and try it for yourself at kevinruth.com/stash.
它的表现比我预期的还要好,让我觉得不可思议的是,这一切都是我这个不懂编程的门外汉独自完成的。
And it is working better than I ever expected, and it remains sort of incredible to me that I did all of this as me, an idiot who does not know how to code.
我竟然在几个小时内就构建并发布了一个可用的软件产品。
I was able to, in a matter of hours, build and release a working software product.
首先,恭喜你发布Stash。
You know, first of all, congratulations for the launch of Stash.
人们对这个产品真的非常兴奋。
People have been really excited about this.
我最喜欢的是,你在X上发布了关于这个的内容,有人回复说:‘它能解析我的X收藏夹废品堆吗?’
My absolute favorite was you posted about this on X, and somebody responded, will it parse my X bookmark graveyard?
你回应说:‘我真的不知道它会做什么。’
And you responded, I have honestly no idea what it will do.
我写这句话的时候笑得不行。
And I laughed so hard when I wrote that.
我想,终于出现了一位诚实的软件开发者,坦率承认我们根本不知道这些东西是怎么工作的。
I thought, finally, an honest software developer who just admits that we don't know how any of this stuff works.
我喜欢,我真的不知道这些东西是怎么工作的。
I like, I have no idea how any of this works.
我不知道它到底能不能运行。
I have no idea if it works.
它对我来说是能用的,但我非常高兴,我只是轻松地把这款软件产品发布到了世界上,实际上没花多少功夫。
It works for me, but I am very delighted that I was just able to sort of vibe launch this software product into the world with, like, honestly, not that much work.
这并不难。
It was not that hard.
我没有使用任何特殊的提示技巧。
I did not use any special prompting tricks.
我甚至不太会用Cloud Code,但还是成功完成了一项实际的软件工程,现在其他人正在下载并使用它。
I'm not even that good at using Cloud Code, and yet I was able to conduct an active software engineering that now other people are downloading and using for themselves.
我想跟你们说一件我遇到的事,那就是我无意中遭遇了人生中第一次AI安全漏洞——当我发布这个开源的Stash应用版本时,它意外泄露了我在多个网站上的凭证。
I did have one incident that I wanna tell you about, which is that I accidentally had what I believe is my first AI security breach, which was that when I launched the version of this public Stash app that I was open sourcing, it did inadvertently reveal my credentials on several of the sites that I used.
所以我不得不回去找Claude,说:嘿。
So I had to go back to Claude and be like, hey.
你能帮我把我的个人信息清理掉吗?
Could you scrub my personal information out of there?
我根本不知道你还有这样的凭证。
That's such I didn't know
你居然有做你这些事的凭证。
you had any credentials to do what you do.
不过,我们想和Claude Co.聊聊几件不同的事。
But, you know, we wanna talk about a few different things with Claude Co.
这周,我们想从听众的反馈开始,因为上周我们问你们:你们在做什么?
This week, and we want to begin with listener responses because last week we asked you, hey, what are you building?
我们对收到的回应感到非常惊喜。
And we were absolutely delighted with the response.
过去几天里,我们收到了来自你们的大量消息,通过我们的邮箱,当然还有我们在Forkiverse——我们稍后会提到的Fediverse服务器——上收到的反馈。
We have gotten so many messages from you all over the past few days to our email, of course, but also in the forkiverse, the Fediverse server that we set up that we're gonna be talking about a little bit later in the show.
但我们只是想突出几个我们最喜欢的例子,因为我觉得它们体现了人们能够构建的东西的多样性,也体现了他们在开始尝试这些事情之前经验多么少。
But we just wanted to highlight a few of our favorites because I think they speak to the breadth of what people are able to build and also how little experience folks had before they started trying these things.
是的。
Yes.
而且我认为这不仅仅是简单的展示环节,因为对我来说,亲自尝试做这些事情和只是听我们谈论另一个播客是完全不同的。
And I think this is, like, more than just a kind of show and tell segment because for me, like, there is something different about trying to do this stuff yourself versus just listening to us talk about another podcast.
我真的觉得,上周听了我们节目后,去尝试自己编写代码的听众,很多人对这件事的简单程度和成果的质量感到惊讶。
I really think that our listeners who listened to our episode last week and then went out and tried to vibe code things for themselves were a lot of them shocked by how easy it was, by how good the results were.
我想,对你来说,这周我发短信跟你开玩笑说,你似乎比以往更强烈地感受到了AGI的存在。
And I think it you know, for you, I was joking with you over text this week that it seemed like you were feeling the AGI in a way that maybe you hadn't before.
所以我认为,对我们听众来说,过去这一周可能是开始感受到进步、感受到能力提升、感受到几个月前还不可能的事情如今正变得可能的一段经历。
So I think for our listeners, maybe this past week has been an experience of starting to feel that, feel the progress, feel the capabilities improving, feel that things that were impossible even a few months ago are now becoming possible.
绝对如此。
Absolutely.
所以在我们进入听众反馈之前,我需要做一个说明。
So as we get in to what we heard from listeners, it is important that I make the following disclosure.
我男朋友在Anthropic工作,而且我可以进一步说,如果你觉得这有点像广告,我确实认为你用Codecs——OpenAI的类似Claude的代码工具——也能做很多类似的事情。
My boyfriend works at Anthropic, and I would go a step further and say, if you are feeling like this is edging into shill territory, I really do think you could probably do a lot of similar things with Codecs, which is OpenAI's sort of Claude code equivalent.
我听说谷歌也有一个,但由于谷歌营销的持续混乱,我真想不起来它叫什么了。
I'm told Google has one as well, but due to the ongoing disaster of Google marketing, I truly cannot remember what it's called.
也许你可以去谷歌搜一下。
Maybe you could Google it.
它叫反重力。
It's called anti gravity.
完美。
Perfect.
所以也许可以试试这个。
So maybe try that.
关键是,这些工具现在已经可用,而且非常出色,我们想深入聊聊你们都在做些什么。
The point is these tools are now available and they're really good, and we wanna get into it and talk about what you all are building.
这也是我做个声明的好机会,那就是我为《纽约时报》工作,而《纽约时报》正在起诉OpenAI、微软和Perplexity,指控它们在训练AI模型时涉嫌侵犯版权。
And that's a good chance to make my disclosure too, which is that I work for the New York Times, which is suing OpenAI, Microsoft, and Perplexity over alleged copyright violations related to the training of AI models.
好的。
Okay.
首先,我们收到了一些听众分享的他们自己搭建的网站示例。
So first up, we got some great examples from our listeners of websites that they have been building.
上周的节目中,我们讨论了各自如何使用这些工具重新设计了自己的网站。
We talked on the show last week about how we had each redesigned our own websites using these tools.
其中一位听众吉娜之前从未做过,但在上一期节目之后,她告诉我们她去设计了自己的网站。
One of those came from our listener, Gina, who had never before, but after last week's episode told us that she had gone out and designed her own website.
她说她花了大约两个半到三个小时,我现在就去看看。
She says it took her about two and a half to three hours, and I'm gonna look at it right now.
做得真棒,吉娜。
Looks great, Gina.
网站有一些不错的动画效果。
It's got some nice animations.
她甚至告诉我们网站里藏了一个彩蛋。
She even told us that it has an Easter egg on it.
如果你按下 Ctrl+M,就会弹出一个看起来像是九十年代的 MySpace 个人主页。
If you hit control m, it pulls up what looks like a MySpace profile from the nineties.
太酷了。
Very cool.
恭喜你制作了新网站,Gina。
Congrats on your new website, Gina.
是的。
Yeah.
超级有趣。
Super, super fun.
很喜欢这个彩蛋。
Love the Easter egg there.
你知道吗,我们还收到了来自莎拉·哈加德的另一个网站。
You know, another website that we got came in from Sarah Haggard.
她做了一个书籍推荐网站。
She built a book site for book recommendations.
原来在寒假期间,她想把自己的书做个目录,这样就能给丈夫一份她已经读过的书单,避免他不小心再买重复的。
It turns out that over the winter break, she wanted to catalog her books so that she could give her husband a list of books she already has read so that he doesn't accidentally buy her a duplicate.
她不仅做到了这一点,还进一步开发了一个网站,听众可以访问 sara'sbooks.com 或 sarahsbooks.com,根据你当前的心情——比如想读一本海滩小说,或者想看一本关于女性赋权的故事——她会为你推荐书籍,网站还有许多其他分类,你还可以创建自己的账户。
And she was able to do that, but then went a lot further and now has a web website where you, the listener, can go on to sara'sbooks.com, sarahsbooks.com, and she will make a book recommendation depending on what your mood you're in, if you want a a beach read, if you want a story about women's empowerment, many other categories in there, you can create your own account.
这简直是一个功能齐全的网页应用。
Like, it is a full featured web app.
我想在她上线之后,她联系了 Goodreads 的创始人,现在他们打算见面进行一场有趣的对话。
And I guess after she put it up, she got in touch with the founder of Goodreads and now they're gonna get together and have a fun conversation.
所以,这是另一个没有太多技术背景的人,为了满足自己的需求而开发的东西,简直太酷了。
So this is someone else who does not have a lot of technical experience, built something to scratch her own itch, and it is super cool.
我只想说,为伴侣进行氛围编程,这件事本身非常浪漫。
And I'll just say, there's something very romantic about vibe coding for your partner.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
很多
A lot
在alpha那里。
of alpha there.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
今天去对你伴侣说:亲爱的,你希望我为你搭建什么?
Go to your partner today and say, what would you like me to build you, sweetheart?
然后看看你能不能快速把它做出来。
And then just see if you can whip it up.
好的。
Alright.
再做一个网站。
One more website.
我们听到了一位听众的故事,他把自己的家庭圣诞信件改成了受经典游戏Zork启发的80年代文字冒险游戏。
We heard from a listener who turned his family's Christmas letter into an eighties text adventure inspired by the video game Zork.
这是来自听众大卫·菲利普斯的来信。
This is from listener David Phillips.
他请我们不要念出网站的名字,因为上面有他孩子的信息,但我现在正看着它。
He asked us not to read out the name of the website since it's got information about his kids on it, but I'm looking at it right now.
它看起来非常酷,把年度节日信件做成这样的创意非常好。
It looks very cool, very good idea for the annual holiday letter.
屏幕上是绿色的文字,背景是黑色的。
It's got, like, green text on a black screen.
它非常像八十年代的CRT显示器。
It's, like, very much conjuring, like, eighties, like, CRT monitor.
他在网站上添加的一个非常有趣的细节是,他的继父曾经参与过原始版《Zork》游戏的开发。
And a really fun detail that he puts on the website is that his stepfather actually worked on the original Zork game.
因此,这不仅是一个充满复古风格的编程项目,更像是一份家庭纪念,我非常喜欢这一点。
And so this is actually kind of like a a family tribute as much as it is a vibe coding project, and I just I love that aspect of it.
是的。
Yes.
我们还听到了几位小企业主的分享,他们表示,Claude Code 等智能编码工具让他们能够自行构建工具,否则这些工具需要花大价钱请别人来开发。
We also heard from several small business owners who told us that Claude Code and other agentic coding tools were allowing them to build tools that they otherwise would have had to pay a lot of money to someone else to build for them.
我最喜欢的是来自乔的故事。
My favorite of these was from Joe.
他是一名焊工。
He is a welder.
顺便说一句,这是未来非常抗AI的职业。
Great AI proof job of the future, by the way.
他说自己完全没有编程经验。
And he said that he has no experience programming.
但过去几个月里,乔告诉我们,他一直在自学为自己的生意开发工具。
But over the past few months, Joe told us that he has been teaching himself to build tools for his business.
他说:'我搭建了一个MCP服务器,把我的聊天窗口变成了一个个人助手。'
He said, quote, I built an MCP server that has turned my clawed chat window into a personal assistant.
他说这个工具能追踪项目、帮助他制作报价单、整理PDF文件和合同。
He said it's able to track jobs, help him create estimates, organize PDFs and contracts.
他说他甚至将Claude连接到了他使用的三维建模程序,这帮助他构建了用于CNC的复杂程序,CNC是一种许多制造商使用的计算机化切割和蚀刻技术。
He said he's even connected Claude to the three d modeling program that he uses, which has helped him build complex programs for CNC, which is sort of the computerized cutting and etching technology that that many builders use.
他说他使用Cloud Code创建了代理,用于搜索他所在地区的潜在工作,并为他生成每周的潜在客户名单。
He says he's used Cloud Code to make agents to search for potential work in his area and write a weekly lead generator for him.
所以我觉得这是一个非常有趣的例子,展示了一个看似低科技的行业,实际上却能够开发出帮助自己获得更多业务的软件。
So I just thought this was a really interesting example of what might seem like a low technology business, but that is actually able to go out there and build some software that helps him get some more business.
是的。
Yeah.
而且他修改邮件的方式真的让我深受触动。
And and and he edited his email in a way that really affected me.
他说,我真的很希望和我同年龄段的人明白,这并不是我让ChatGPT帮我写一封邮件,或者能否生成一张拼写正确的图片。
He said, I really want people in my demographic to understand that this isn't I asked ChatGPT to write an email or can you generate an image that has the correct spelling.
这是我自己从零开始,借助AI编程搭档构建了整个业务基础设施,尽管我没有任何正规培训,只受过高中教育。
This is to me, I built my own business infrastructure from scratch with an AI pair programmer despite having zero formal training and a high school education.
太棒了。
Totally cool.
挺酷的。
Pretty cool.
我们还收到了另一个例子,来自听众费伊·贝尔,她经营着一家向室内设计师销售墙纸的业务。
Another example we got was from Faye Bell, a listener who runs her own business selling wallpaper to interior designers.
她向我们介绍了一款她正在开发的特殊工具,叫做墙纸计算器,我们可以在这里看一下。
She told us about a special tool that she has been creating called the wallpaper calculator, which we can look at over here.
它在她的网站上。
It is at her website.
这个工具可以让潜在客户——比如室内设计师——精确计算出覆盖特定墙面所需的墙纸数量。
And this is a tool that basically allows a potential client, an interior designer maybe, to calculate exactly how much wallpaper they need to cover a particular wall.
她说,这个工具还能生成布局图,让客户大致想象出墙纸在他们空间中的效果。
This tool, she said, also generates a layout diagram so that clients can sort of visualize what the wallpaper will look like in their space.
她说,这原本是她一直用手动方式在Photoshop或InDesign等工具中完成的,但现在客户可以自己操作,节省时间。
She said this is something that she's always been doing by hand in tools like Photoshop or InDesign, but now the clients could just do it themselves and save themselves the time.
是的。
Yeah.
法耶想让我们知道,她之前没有任何编程经验,但她很享受能够不支付任何托管费用就能完成这个项目。
And Faye wanted to let us know that she had no previous coding experience, and she loves that that she can do this without having to, like, pay any, like, hosting costs.
她不需要从第三方供应商购买任何软件。
Like, she doesn't have to, like, buy this software from some third party provider.
这些服务通常非常昂贵,而她只是为自己动手完成了这一切。
Those can be really expensive services, and she just did it for her damn self.
是的。
Yes.
另一个引起我们注意的例子来自一位父亲,他开发了一个网页应用,用来追踪他让孩子们完成的一项极其具体的家务。
One more that caught our attention came from a dad who made a web app to track a hilariously specific chore he had asked his kids to complete.
西蒙写道,那是圣诞节前一周,他和妻子决定对厨房进行一次翻新。
Simon wrote that it was the week before Christmas and his wife and he decided that their kitchen needed a tune up.
于是他们为厨房的门和抽屉订购了新的把手,总共70个把手。
So they ordered new handles for the doors and drawers in their kitchen and it was 70 handles in all.
为了激励孩子们帮忙完成这项工作,凯文承诺每更换一个把手就给孩子们一美元。
And to motivate their children to help them with this project, Kevin, they offered the kids a dollar per handle change.
他注意到,过去当他们被赋予更换把手的任务时,很快就失去了兴趣,你可能想不到。
And he had noticed that in the past, they had quickly lost interest, believe it or not, when given the handle replacement task.
所以这次他开发了一个网页应用来记录他们的进展,我们打开了这个网页应用。
So this time he spun up a web app to log their efforts and we pulled up this web app.
当你打开它时,第一件事就是告诉你,项目已经完成,全部70个把手都已更换。
And and the first thing it tells you when you open it is that the project is now complete and all 70 handles were replaced.
所以这是一次成功。
So this was a success.
但基本上,这个应用为他的四个孩子设置了一个排行榜,
But basically there's a leaderboard for his four children,
你可以看到谁赚得最多。
and you can see who made the most money.
他们可以通过苹果现金提现到银行,或者用巧克力兑换奖励,我非常喜欢这种方式。
They were able to cash out their winnings via Apple cash to the bank or via chocolates, which I love.
最终,本以更换了44个把手的成绩位居第一。
And it was Ben who came in number one with 44 handles replaced.
维克得了零分。
Vic came in at zero.
所以我想维克是在等着更高的报酬才愿意参与旋钮更换这项工作。
So I guess Vic was was holding out for a higher wage to get involved in the knob replacement business.
但再说一次,这真的太古怪又有趣了。
But just again, this is so, like, wacky and fun.
但这有必要吗?
And was this necessary?
绝对没必要。
Absolutely not.
但我喜欢这个项目的地方在于,它体现了我在听众发给我们的许多内容中感受到的一个主题——创造的快乐。
But what I love about this project is it speaks to a theme that I felt in so many of the things that listeners sent us, which is the joy of creation.
制造东西是很有趣的。
It is fun to make things.
拥有一个梦想并能迅速实现它,是非常有趣的。
It is fun to have a dream and to be able to quickly realize it.
所以,是的,我只是
And so, yeah, I just
我特别喜欢这个。
love this one.
让我兴奋的不是这些产品本身。
What excites me is less the products themselves.
而是人们似乎正通过使用这些工具,开始理解人工智能发展的速度和趋势。
It is that people, I think, are starting to understand the pace and trajectory of AI progress through using these tools.
一年前,你无法在框里输入一句话,就让我为你家的把手更换项目做个网站,或者为你的小企业做个工具,帮助人们估算他们项目所需的壁纸数量。
A year ago, you could not type into a box, make me a website for my family's handle replacement project or make me a tool for my small business that allows people to estimate the wallpaper needs of their project.
但现在你可以了。
And now you can.
我认为,除非你真的花时间——哪怕只有几分钟——使用过这些工具,否则你根本无法真正理解当前的技术水平。
And I think unless you have really spent time, even a couple minutes using one of these tools, you really do not understand the state of the art.
因此,我认为很多人不幸地处于和我们2022年ChatGPT刚推出时一样的位置,他们对一项自己并未亲身体验过的技术妄加评论。
And so I think a lot of people, unfortunately, are in the same position that they you know, we were in back when ChatGPT came out in 2022, which is like they are opining on a technology that they do not actually understand because they have not experienced it for themselves.
所以对于正在收听的听众们,如果你们在想,好吧。
And so for the listeners out there who are listening to this and saying, okay.
这些项目听起来不错,但这和我或者我的生活有什么关系呢?
Well, these projects sound great, but what does this have to do with me or my life?
我想说的是,在2026年,要真正理解AI进展的前沿是什么,最好的方式就是自己动手做一个项目,不管它多么荒谬或微不足道,交给其中一个AI编程代理,然后看看它能做什么。
I would just say there is no better way right now in 2026 to get a handle on what the frontier of AI progress looks like than to come up with a project no matter how silly or trivial seeming, give it to one of these AI coding agents and watch what it does.
我同意这一点。
I agree with that.
你知道吗,凯文,对我来说,这些东西正是垃圾的反面。
You know, what I would say, Kevin, is to me, this stuff is the flip side of slop.
这是反垃圾。
This is anti slop.
对吧?
Right?
如果垃圾指的是网络上每一个角落都被你从未要求过的数字创作占据,让你感到困惑,模糊了现实与虚构的界限,让你觉得昏昏欲睡、恶心不堪,那么……
If slop is about a world where every surface online seems like it's being taken over by these digital creations that you didn't ask for, that you find confusing, they blur the line between reality and fiction and they just sort of make you feel hypnotized and gross.
这是它的反面。
This is the reverse of that.
这是真实的人说:我生活中有个需求,我要亲手把它做出来。
This is real people saying, have a need in my life and I'm gonna go make it with my own hands.
我们一直把人工智能称为一种双重用途的技术。
And we've always talked about AI as a dual use technology.
我们在节目中花了大量时间讨论它的诸多负面影响,这些影响巨大、真实且令人恐惧,但这里也有积极的一面,至少在当下,这可以成为一个赋能的工具。
We do spend a lot of time on the show talking about its many downsides, which are huge and real and scary, but there is also upside here, which is at least in this moment, this can be an empowering tool.
因此,在我看来,我之所以对所有听众的回复感到如此欣喜,是因为它们体现了技术工具如何依然能够赋予我们力量。
And so to me, I think one reason why I was so delighted to see all of these listener responses was they spoke to the way that technology tools can still empower us.
是的。
Yes.
而且它还让我获得了以前从未有过的体验:我现在明白了,开发并发布软件产品,却要面对用户告诉你所有错误的地方,是多么令人烦恼。
And it also gave me an experience that I had not had before, which is that I now understand how annoying it is to build and release software products in the world only to have users tell you everything that is wrong with them.
就在我把我的Stash应用公开并上传到GitHub,让人们可以下载和使用后,不到五分钟,我就开始收到功能请求。
Like five minutes after I made my Stash app public and put it up on GitHub so that people could download it and use it themselves, I started getting feature requests.
我当时就想,你难道不为我免费发布给你的这个应用感到印象深刻吗?
It was like, are you not impressed by the app that I have made and released to you for free?
现在,我以一种更直观、更切身的方式理解了我们听众中那些在大科技公司担任产品经理的人所经历的痛苦。
Already, I I understand in a more visceral and and embodied way the pain of our listeners who are product managers at big tech companies.
是的。
Yes.
但你现在也有了一个完美的回应方式,那就是:直接分叉代码,自己做个版本。
But you also now just have a perfect thing you can say back to them, which is just fork it and make the version yourself.
对吧?
Right?
去自己写个功能吧。
Go vibe code your own feature.
去找Claude反馈吧。
Take it up with Claude.
好。
Yeah.
所以,凯西,当你给我发短信,谈到你对这项技术有多么惊叹和印象深刻,觉得这就像一个ChatGPT时刻,自上周我们讨论你使用这些工具的经历以来,对你来说最令人惊讶的是什么?
So, Casey, when you were texting me and talking about how amazed and impressed you were by this technology, how this felt like a ChatGPT moment, what has been the most surprising thing for you since our segment last week about your experience with these tools?
我只是不断冒出新的想法,想做一些东西。
Well, I just keep having new ideas for stuff to build.
我本来以为,想出一两个点子后就会枯竭,但每次我有了一个想法,就能立刻把它做出来,这给了我信心去构建三四个新东西。
Like, I assumed that I would run out after coming up with one or two things, but every time I have an idea and I could just make it, it just gives me the confidence to go out and build, like, three or four new things.
所以我正在逐渐改变想法,不再觉得这只是一个有趣的、临时的概念验证演示,而是把它看作我现在拥有的一个工具。
So I'm moving away from thinking, like, this is a fun little, like, proof of concept demo and thinking of it more as, like, this is just a tool that I have now.
只要我在软件方面有什么需求或痛点,我现在默认的假设是:我大概能快速做出一个版本来解决它。
And if I have some sort of, like, itch when it comes to software, my default assumption now is I can probably quickly build some version of it.
是的。
Yeah.
我发现我得重新训练自己,或者稍微调整一下思维方式,因为当我遇到生活中的烦心事或问题时,我的第一反应不再是去开发一款软件来解决它。
I'm finding that I'm having to sort of retrain myself or rewire my brain a little bit because my impulse when I, like, encounter something annoying or a problem that I'm having in my life is not to, like, go build a piece of software to address that.
这根本不是我生活方式的一部分。
It's just, like, not part of how I live my life.
但现在我发现自己一天中越来越多次地听到脑海中这种提醒声。
But now I'm I'm finding that, like, more and more times a day, like, that sort of bell is going off in my head.
他们会想,哦,我大概能构建一些东西,或者Claude大概能帮我解决这个问题。
They're like, oh, I could probably build something or Claude could probably build something to help me with this.
所以我们接下来要演示一下我们是如何用Cloud Code进行编码的。
So we are actually going to be doing a demo of how we vibe code with Cloud Code.
我们会在我们的YouTube频道上进行这个演示。
We're gonna be doing that on our YouTube channel.
你们下周就能看到。
You'll be able to see that next week.
但如果你一直对这个感兴趣,也许我们已经稍微激发了你的好奇心,但你仍然感到有些畏惧,希望这个演示能给你提供入门所需的工具。
But if you are someone who has been maybe curious about this, maybe we've piqued your curiosity a little bit, but you're still a little bit intimidated by it, hopefully, that will give you the tools you need to get started.
我们回来后,将和我们的朋友PJ Vogt一起在Forkiverse里探索。
When we come back, we're forking around in the forkiverse with our friend PJ Vogt.
我们的联合创始人PJ Vogt。
Our cofounder PJ Vogt.
把它做对。
Get it right.
嘿。
Hey.
我是《纽约时报烹饪》的沃恩·布雷兰德。
It's Vaughn Breland from New York Times Cooking.
烘焙季节到了。
Baking season is here.
几乎任何蛋糕都可以变成一个单分子蛋糕。
Almost any cake can be turned into a one mole cake.
没有什么比得上
There's nothing better than
刚从烤箱里烤好的牛角面包。
a freshly baked croissant for my oven.
天哪。
Oh my god.
我可以吃五十亿个这样的东西。
I could eat 5,000,000,000 of these.
那是一块布朗尼蛋糕。
That is a brownie.
别害怕。
Don't be afraid.
这个做法非常宽容,不容易失败。
This is so forgiving.
这些是豪华饼干。
These are deluxe cookies.
在《纽约时报烹饪》上,我们应有尽有。
At New York Times Cooking, we've got it all.
我们提供各种技巧、食谱和视频,无论你想烤什么,都欢迎来 nytcooking.com 和我们一起烘焙。
We've got tips, recipes, videos for whatever you wanna bake, so come bake with us at nytcooking.com.
好了,凯西,《硬分叉》播客的听众应该知道,我们本周发布了一集额外内容,详细介绍了我们与《伟大搜索引擎》播客的佩伊·沃格特合作的实验,以及我们新创建的社交网络——Forkiverse。
Well, Casey, listeners to the hard fork podcast will know that we released an extra episode this week detailing our experiment with PJ Vogt of the great search engine podcast and the new social network that we started, the Forkiverse.
没错。
That's right.
正如你在本集播客中将听到的,Forkiverse 已经上线运行了将近一周。
The Forkiverse has been up and running for just about a week now as you will hear this podcast episode.
我必须说,凯文,反响非常热烈。
And I have to say, Kevin, the response has been overwhelming.
真的太疯狂了。
Truly wild.
这是我职业生涯中经历过的最疯狂的事情之一。
One One of the wildest things I've ever experienced in my career.
当你提出这个实验想法时,你所能想象的愿意加入我们搭建的这个联邦服务器的人数上限大约是2000人。
When you had this idea to run this experiment, the maximum amount of people that you can imagine wanting to join with us in this federated server that we set up was about 2,000 people.
而今天,我们在这期《Hard Fork》节目中报告:已有超过4000人加入了Forkiverse,人数之多几乎要将它压垮,甚至可能摧毁它。
And today, we can report here on the Hard Fork show that more than 4,000 souls have now joined us within the Forkiverse threatening to overwhelm and perhaps destroy it.
是的。
Yes.
我们已经遇到了第一次内容审核丑闻和一些初步的技术问题。
And we have already had our first content moderation scandal, some of our first technical hiccups.
我们简直是在2026年加速体验一家社交媒体公司的整个生命周期。
We're sort of speed running the life of a social media company in the year 2026.
所以今天,我们想更新一下Forkiverse的进展状况。
And so today, we wanted to give some updates on how the Forkiverse is going.
我们再次邀请了我们的第三位联合创始人、来自Search Engine的PJ Voat加入我们。
So we've invited back our third cofounder with us, PJ Voat, from Search Engine, is here.
他现在是远程参与的。
He's here virtually.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thank you for having me.
我被叫过很多名字,但从来没被叫过‘她’。
I've been called a lot of things, but never found her.
感觉怎么样?
How does it feel?
说实话,作为关心维护一个极小网络社区的人,我已经惊讶于自己从中学到了这么多关于互联网的知识。
Honestly, I'm surprised at how much I'm already learning about the Internet by being a person who cares about even maintaining a very small community on it.
我以前只是社区成员,从未当过社区架构师。
I've only ever been a community member, not a community architect.
这很奇怪。
It's strange.
真的非常奇怪。
It's very strange.
那么,我们来谈谈目前为止Forcaverse的风格吧。
Well, so let's talk about the flavor of the Forcaverse so far.
你知道,如果在推出任何社交产品时都不给用户明确的行动指引,这可能是个错误。
You know, it can be, I think, a mistake to start any kind of social product and not give people an idea of what to do.
我认为,PJ在搭建Forkiverse时做的一件聪明事,就是给了大家一个引导提示。
And I think one of the smart things that PJ did as we were setting up the Forkiverse was to give people a prompt.
他说:‘如果你愿意,可以发一张你正在听这个播客节目的地方的照片。’
He said, hey, something you could do if you want is just post a picture of where you're listening to this podcast episode from.
当我登录 Forkiverse 时,我看到的大多是人们发布的一些非常有趣的照片。
And so when I logged on to the Forkiverse, a lot of what I saw was just people posting really fun photos.
我认为这营造了一种氛围:我们来这里并不是要非常严肃。
And I think it contributed to the sense of, hey, we are not here to be super serious.
我们来这里也不是为了解决世界上的重大问题。
We are not here to solve the great issues of the world.
我们只是想轻松地聚在一起,互相认识。
We just kinda wanna hang out and meet each other.
因此,我对 Forkiverse 的氛围感到非常欣喜,因为它确实像是一群喜欢同一档播客的人聚在一起,互相打招呼。
And so I have actually been delighted at the flavor of the Forkiverse because it really has seemed like a bunch of people who like the same podcast coming together and saying hello to each other.
是的。
Yes.
而且我认为,PJ,因为你比我们早几天发布了你那期节目的版本,最初涌入的人大多是搜索引擎爱好者。
And I think because, PJ, you posted your version of the episode a couple days before we did, at first, the people who were trickling in were mostly like search engine fans.
所以我观察到了一些关于你听众的特点,比如许多听众生活在不列颠哥伦比亚省的农场,他们一边在木工工作室工作,一边听播客。
So I got to observe some things about your audience, which is that many of your listeners live these, like, bucolic lives on farms in British Columbia, where they're just, like, listening to podcasts while they work in their, like, woodworking studios.
你的听众在外面似乎过得很开心。
Your your listeners really seem to be having a good time out there.
我也对我的听众有了同样的了解。
I learned the same thing about my listeners.
这真是太棒了。
It's like, it was so cool.
有那么多人都说,我在某个偏远的小木屋里做陶瓷,我当时就想,这太酷了。
The amount of people who are like, I'm in a cabin somewhere far away working on my ceramics, and I was like, that's so cool.
我根本不知道。
I had no idea.
它帮我解决了我对播客的一个不喜欢的地方,那就是它太单向了。
And it solved for me one of the things that I don't like about podcasting, which is that it's so one way.
我不确定。
I don't know.
我有时候会对在线社区是否真的能形成社区感感到怀疑。
I've I'm someone who's sometimes suspicious of online community that it actually can feel like community.
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