媒体末日来临 + a16z的克里斯·迪克森为加密货币辩护 + HatGPT

对吧？

Right?

富豪们一贯的做法是：找一个声望很高但亏钱严重的老牌机构，收购下来，或许能让它亏得少一点，然后沾沾自喜地觉得自己拥有了《华盛顿邮报》之类的东西。

The the classic move for a billionaire is to be like, what is some prestigious old property that's losing a lot of money that I could take over and maybe help it lose slightly less money and just sort of bask in the fact that I own the Washington Post or something like that.

对吧？

Right?

如果这些富豪们转而支持四零四、Defector 或其他类似的集体，他们本可以损失更少的钱，同时对新闻业和民主产生更大的影响——他们完全可以这么说：

These folks could lose so much less money and could have such a bigger impact on journalism and democracy if they just went to four zero four, they went to defector, they went to one of these other collectives, they said, you know what?

我每年直接给你们500万美元。

I'm just gonna give you $5,000,000 a year.

对吧？

Right?

看看你们能用这笔钱做成什么。

See what you could do with it.

也许你们会决定多雇十个人。

Maybe you decide you wanna hire 10 more people.

也许你想投资一个非常酷的网站。

Maybe you want to invest in a really cool website.

也许你想发起一些成本高昂的调查。

Maybe you wanna, launch some really expensive investigations.

对吧？

Right?

但是，老兄，如果你是个有钱人，只想资助某个新闻机构，我告诉你，真正物超所值的地方就在这些小型集体里。

But, man, if you are a rich person and you just want to be a patron of some journalism organization, I'm telling you, it is in these small collectives where you are gonna get so much more bang for your buck.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这有一定道理。

I I think there's something to that.

我认为，尤其是对于地方和区域新闻来说，考虑其他筹资方式是有意义的。

I think especially for local and regional news, it makes sense to consider alternative ways of funding yourself.

我最喜欢的一个地方新闻初创案例是Cityside，它就在我居住的湾区。

One of my favorite examples of a local news startup that I really love, is, Cityside, which is out in the the Bay Area where I live.

它最初是一个名为Berkeley Side的网站，那是一个超本地化的数字出版平台，只有寥寥数人负责报道加州伯克利的本地新闻。

There's, it started with a website website called Berkeley Side, which was sort of a hyper local digital publisher that was sort of just a handful of people who were sort of covering, you know, local news in Berkeley, California.

现在有一个名为Oakland Side的出版物。

There's now a publication called Oakland Side.

所以他们正在将业务扩展到该地区的其他城市，而且他们的资金来源相当独特。

So they're expanding to other cities in the area, and they really have sort of an interesting mix of funding.

你知道吗？

You know?

一部分资金来自资助和基金会。

Some of it comes from grants and foundations.

另一部分则来自一些富有的赞助人，他们将支持这类项目视为一种准慈善行为。

Some of it comes from kind of wealthy benefactors who decide to support this as sort of a a quasi philanthropic exercise.

我认为这是本地新闻的一种非常有趣的模式。

And I think it's just a really interesting model for local news.

我不确定这种模式是否也能在国家或全球层面以同样的方式运作。

I I don't know if that works at this the same way on the kind of national or global scale.

因此，我给新闻行业关于这些大型全国性和全球性媒体的建议是，回归基本。

And so my recommendation for the news industry when it comes to these bigger national and global publications is to sort of get back to basics.

对吧？

Right?

硅谷有一个著名说法，这是Y Combinator创业加速器的座右铭。

There's this famous saying in Silicon Valley, it's it's sort of the motto of the Y Combinator startup accelerator.

他们常说：做出人们想要的东西。

They like to say make something people want.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我认为这应该是媒体组织所做一切的核心。

And I think that has to be at the center of what media organizations are trying to do.

如果新闻业依赖于亿万富翁的施舍或补助金的可用性，就不可能持续发展。

We cannot have a sustainable news industry if it is dependent on the largesse of billionaires, on the availability of grants.

我甚至听说过一些人说，也许政府应该资助新闻生产。

I've even heard some people talk about, you know, maybe the government should fund news production.

也许我们应该让雇主们把新闻媒体的订阅捆绑起来，作为员工福利的一部分提供订阅服务。

Maybe we should have, you know, employers bundling subscriptions to you know, offering subscriptions to news publications as part of their employee benefits packages.

但我真的认为，所有这些策略都忽略了根本点，那就是要想成功，你必须做出人们愿意付费的东西。

And I just really think that all of those strategies are sort of missing the fundamental point, which is that in order to succeed, you have to make something that people want to pay for.

人们不应当因为内疚、压力或被劝说才去订阅他们喜爱的媒体。

People should not have to be guilted or pressured or cajoled into subscribing to their favorite favorite publication.

订阅应该是他们发自内心想做的事情。

It should be something that they want to do.

我认为，在过去一二十年我进入媒体行业以来，记者们已经逐渐失去了创业精神和创造力。

And I think in the last decade or two since I've been in media, journalists have really lost a sense of kind of entrepreneurship and creativity.

在媒体行业的某些领域，过于关心或深入了解你的公司或新闻机构如何赚钱，几乎成了一种禁忌。

It's it's almost become kind of a dirty word in certain parts of the media industry to care too much or to know too much about how your company or your journalism organization makes money.

我们已经把这部分内容割裂开来，变成了行业里一个独立的部门。

We've sort of cleaved that off into, like, a separate part of the industry.

当然，这样做也有很好的理由。

And, you know, look, there are good reasons for that.

我的意思是，我不希望负责报道国会的调查记者去想他们的网页流量或者他们的报道转化了多少订阅。

Like, I don't necessarily want the investigative reporters, you know, covering congress to be thinking about, like, their their web traffic or their how many subscriptions their stories are converting.

但我确实认为，作为整个行业，我们需要更多创业思维，多尝试一些新东西，不仅要思考什么是最好的故事，还要思考人们真正愿意为之付费的是什么。

But I do think that we as an industry could benefit from a little more entrepreneurial thinking and just trying stuff and and thinking about not only, like, what is the best story to tell here, but what is the thing that people are actually willing to pay for?

是的。

Yeah.

我想谈谈‘让人们愿意买单’这一点，因为它真的非常重要。

I I wanna say something about the make people want point because it is a really important one.

长期以来，每当有新的出版物创立时，往往都是围绕某个广告类别展开的。

For a long time now, when new publications have been started, it is often started around an advertising category.

对吧？

Right?

我不会点名过去几年里那些由公司为了打造科技垂直领域而创办的出版物。

Like, I'm I'm not gonna name the publications over the past few years that were started by companies thinking like, we need a tech vertical.

对吧？

Right?

然后他们就会仓促搭建起一个项目。

And they would spin something up.

他们会在一段时间里给这个项目投入大笔资金。

They would lavishly fund it for a while.

可一旦没能达到预期的广告收益，这个项目就会立刻被叫停。

But then once the ads didn't turn out to be there, the the plug got pulled on it.

会出现这种情况是因为市场上已经有太多科技领域的报道了。

Well, that was because there's already a lot of tech coverage.

如果你进入市场时没能拿出独特的编辑洞见，市场很可能会淘汰你——除非你刚好坐拥全世界最顶尖的人才为你工作。

And if you don't show up in the market with some sort of unique editorial insight, the market is probably gonna reject you unless you just happen to have the most talented people in the world working there.

所以你看，这也再次说明了媒体行业为什么难做：光是拥有一套好的商业模式都已经够难了，可仅仅做到这一点还远远不够。

So, you know and again, this is like one of the reasons why media is such a hard business is it is not even enough to have a good business model, which is already enough of a challenge on its own.

你必须找到自己存在的核心意义，但媒体行业的特质就在于，你找到的这个核心意义往往没法长久维持。

You have to have an existential reason for being, and it is just in the nature of media for the existential reason you find to not last that long.

所以你得不断重塑自己的存在价值。我刚开始写通讯的时候，内容都是聚焦Facebook每天爆出的各种问题——那时候这类问题真的很多，我的通讯就靠这个支撑了好几年。

You actually have to constantly reinvent your when I started writing a newsletter, it was just that day's problem at Facebook, and there were a lot of them and it sustained my newsletter for years.

但总有一天，那些都成了过时的话题，这份通讯就得转向别的内容了。

But then one day, that was an old story, and the newsletter had to be about something else.

对吧？

Right?

所有媒体机构都会不停陷入这种困境，这个过程难度极大。

And publications find themselves in that spot all the time, and it is super hard.

但如果我们想重塑媒体行业的中间生态，就需要有人创办出有明确存在价值的媒体机构，而且这些机构还要有能力随着时间推移不断调整自身的价值定位。

But if we want to rebuild that middle of media, we need folks that build publications that have a dedicated reason for being, and they need to be able to evolve it over time.

没错。

Yep.

你知道吗，凯西，我觉得在这类讨论里有一点常常被大家忽视：新闻作为一种独立产品，很少能靠自己实现盈利，总得有某种关联业务为它提供补贴才行。

You know, Casey, I I think a point that often goes, like, underappreciated in these discussions is that news as kind of a standalone product has very rarely been profitable on its own without some kind of adjacent business kind of subsidizing it.

以前《纽约时报》里有这么一种说法，我不知道这说法靠不靠谱：填字游戏的收入负担了巴格达分社的全部开销。

So there used to be this saying at The New York Times, I don't know if it was ever true or not, that the the crossword puzzle paid for the Baghdad bureau.

对吧？

Right?

你有这些轻量级的板块，比如游戏、谜题和漫画，它们能吸引人们进来，然后你用这些板块产生的收入来支付昂贵的海外记者站。

You have these, like, kind of lightweight sections, like games and puzzles and comics that sort of get people in, and then you use the revenue generated by those things to pay for the very expensive, you know, foreign desk.

这在许多不同类型的出版机构和媒体组织中都是如此，比如电台举办音乐节。

And this is true at a lot of different kinds of publications and media organizations, you know, radio stations hosting music festivals.

我记得几年前，BuzzFeed的Tasty板块——他们网站上的烹饪食谱部分——变得非常受欢迎。

I remember a few years ago when BuzzFeed's tasty section, their sort of cooking recipe section of their website got very popular.

他们开始推出一系列可以在商店里销售的厨具。

They sort of started a a line of cookware that they would sell in stores.

因此，媒体机构一直都在尝试通过相邻业务来补贴新闻采编业务。

So there have always been these kind of attempts by media organizations to sort of use an adjacent business to subsidize the the news gathering one.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是为什么我们要在平台游戏中加入漫画。

Which is why we're adding comics to platformers.

所以敬请期待下周一开始的《马尔马杜克》。

So look forward to Marmaduke starting next week.

那么，你认为如今有哪些周边产品可以为新闻机构带来收入呢？

So what is a what is an adjacent product that you think could make money for news organizations today?

我觉得职业摔跤显然就是一个例子。

I think pro wrestling obviously comes to mind.

老实说，这真的可能行得通。

Honestly, it could work.

你可以想象，人们愿意花钱去看大卫·布鲁克斯和莫琳·多德打一场。

Like, you could pay people would pay to see, you know, David Brooks and Maureen Dowd go at it.

我的意思是，数字媒体的很大一部分其实就是人们互相嘲讽。

I mean, you know, so much of digital media is just people dunking on each other.

那为什么不把这搬到擂台上，让大家一起去看看夏日狂潮呢？

Why not put it in the squared circle and, you know, see everyone at SummerSlam?

我太喜欢这个点子了。

I love this.

来一场铁笼赛吧。

A cage match.

是的。

Mhmm.

这比我的点子好多了，我的点子是一个应用，可以让你付费请世界级作家为你撰写约会应用的个人资料和消息。

That's better than my idea, which was an app that would, allow you to tap the expertise of world class writers to write your dating app, profiles and messages for you.

可以叫它‘西拉诺’。

Can call this Cyrano.

对。

Yes.

作家们通常很擅长约会和维系关系。

Writers famously good at dating and in relationships.

你就是看着那些作家为你写这些内容。

Those are the people you watch writing that for you.

广告回来后，加密投资者克里斯·迪克森将谈论区块链、Web3以及这个行业哪里出了问题。

When we come back, crypto investor Chris Dixon talks about blockchains, Web three, and where the industry went wrong.

这是哈特吉·索勒斯伯格。

This is HatGee Solesberger.

我是《纽约时报》的出版人。

I'm the publisher of The New York Times.

我负责监督我们的新闻业务和商业运营。

I oversee our news operations and our business.

但我也曾是一名记者，近年来目睹我们的行业不断萎缩，感到非常担忧。

But I'm also a former reporter who has watched with a lot of alarm as our profession has shrunk and shrunk in recent years.

通常在这些广告中，我们会谈论订阅《纽约时报》的重要性。

Normally, in these ads, we talk about the importance of subscribing to The Times.

今天，我想传达一个不同的信息。

I'm here today with a different message.

我鼓励你们支持任何致力于原创报道的新闻机构。

I'm encouraging you to support any news organization that's dedicated to original reporting.

如果是你们当地的报纸，那就太好了。

If that's your local newspaper, terrific.

特别是地方报纸，非常需要你们的支持。

Local newspapers in particular need your support.

如果是其他全国性报纸，那也很好。

If that's another national newspaper, that's great too.

如果它是《纽约时报》，我们会用这笔钱派遣记者去寻找事实和背景信息，而这些是你从人工智能那里永远得不到的。

And if it's The New York Times, we'll use that money to send reporters out to find the facts and context that you'll never get from AI.

就是这样。

That's it.

不是要你点击任何链接。

Not asking you to click on any link.

只是订阅一家拥有真实记者、进行第一手事实报道的真正新闻机构。

Just subscribe to a real news organization with real journalists doing firsthand fact based reporting.

如果你已经这样做了，谢谢。

And if you already do, thank you.

所以，凯西，我们在这个播客中已经讨论了很多关于加密货币世界发生的事情，以及过去几年各大加密公司遭遇的各种丑闻、不法行为、庞氏骗局和崩盘。

So, Casey, we have talked a lot on this podcast about what's happening in the cryptocurrency world and all of the various scandals and misdeeds and Ponzi schemes and collapses that have befallen big crypto companies over the

过去几年。

last few years.

我们确实如此。

We do.

事实上，我们来实时更新一下狗狗币的价格，凯文。

In fact, let's do a live update on the price of Dogecoin, Kevin.

现在，就在我们录制这段内容时，狗狗币的价格是7.9美分。

Right now, as we record this, the price of Dogecoin is 7.9¢.

希望这能帮助你做出投资决策。

So hope that helps you as you make your investment decisions.

我们花了大量时间开玩笑、轻率地谈论加密货币领域发生的事，因为过去几年里，尤其是出现了太多灾难。

So we spend a lot of time joking and being glib about what's going on in crypto because there have been just so many disasters over the past few years, especially.

但我认为我们也必须认真对待这个问题，因为直到今天，硅谷仍有许多人相信，尽管发生了这么多丑闻，尽管FTX和币安已经崩盘，萨姆·班克曼-弗里德入狱，加密货币市场也只剩昔日的一小部分。

But I think we also have to treat this as a serious subject because there are a lot of people in Silicon Valley still to this day who believe that despite all of the scandals, despite the fact that, you know, FTX and Binance have collapsed and Sam Bankman Fried's in jail and the crypto market, you know, is is a fraction of its former self.

科技行业里一些有影响力的人认为，这一切终将反弹，加密货币仍会成为我们技术未来的重要组成部分。

There are people who are influential in the tech industry who think that all of this is due for a rebound and that crypto will actually be an important part of our technological future.

是的。

Yeah.

你会不会说，那些人共同的一点是，他们有大量的资金押注在结果上？

And would you say that one of the things that those folks have in common is that they have a lot of money riding on the outcome?

有些人确实是。

Some of them do.

是的。

Yes.

还有一些人则相信加密货币的理论基础，比如去中心化的理念，以及摆脱那些长期控制数十亿人在线体验的科技巨头的中介角色。

And some of them just believe in kind of the theoretical underpinnings of crypto, the sort of idea of decentralization and taking away the intermediaries of big tech who have been controlling the experiences online of billions of people.

这周，我们有机会采访了硅谷一位长期坚持加密乐观主义的人。

So this week, we had an opportunity to talk to one of the sort of enduring crypto optimists in Silicon Valley.

我认为他其实是你我长期以来都尊重并依赖的智慧与信息来源，他就是克里斯·迪克森。

And I think he's actually someone who both you and I have respected and and relied on as a source of wisdom and information for a long time, and that's Chris Dixon.

克里斯是安德森·霍洛维茨的合伙人，这家风险投资公司由马克·安德森和本·霍洛维茨创立，已成为加密货币和Web3领域最大的投资者之一。

Chris is a partner at Andreessen Horowitz, the venture capital firm founded by Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, who has become one of the biggest investors in crypto and Web three.

《The Information》称他为安德森·霍洛维茨的加密之王。

The Information called him Andreessen Horowitz's crypto king.

除了作为投资者，克里斯还长期通过博客思考互联网的未来。

In addition to being an investor, Chris is also someone who's been blogging and thinking about the future of the Internet for a very long time.

他的公司领投了多家领先的加密公司，包括Coinbase、OpenSea和Yuga Labs，后者是创作无聊猿游艇俱乐部NFT系列的公司。

And his firm has led investments in a bunch of leading crypto companies, including Coinbase, OpenSea, and Yuga Labs, which is the company that makes the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT collection.

直到今天，他依然乐观地认为加密货币并未死亡。

And to this day, he remains optimistic that crypto is not dead.

事实上，他更愿意称之为区块链网络，将成为互联网未来的重要组成部分，也是普通人从这些中心化科技平台手中夺回权力的一种方式。

In fact, blockchain networks, which is what he prefers to call it, are going to be an important part of the future of the Internet and kind of a way for ordinary people to take back power from some of these centralized tech platforms.

嗯。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

我应该说，凯文，我完全不认同这种观点。

And I should say, Kevin, like, I actually just don't share that view at all.

我对所有关于加密货币的报道都感到失望，而克里斯正是让我认真对待加密货币的人之一，因为我觉得，你看。

I feel burned by everything that I wrote about crypto, and Chris was one of the people who made me take crypto seriously because I thought, look.

如果这个人是认真的，那我就得假设这件事最终会带来积极的结果。

If this person is serious about it, then I need to assume that something positive is going to come out of this.

自从市场上这一切开始明朗以来，我就再也没有机会和他聊过了。

And I have not had a chance to talk to him since all of this stuff started to shake out in the market.

所以当我们得知他即将出版一本新书时，我们就想，也许这是个机会，可以问他那些我们一直想问的尖锐问题。

So when we found out that he had a new book coming out, we said, well, maybe this is the chance where we can ask him the hard questions that we've had.

是的。

Yeah.

克里斯刚刚写了一本新书，详细阐述了他对加密货币和区块链未来的愿景。

So Chris just wrote a new book sort of detailing his vision for the future of crypto and blockchains.

这本书名为《阅读、书写、拥有》。

It's called Read Write Own.

我想，也许这正是我们向一个在很大程度上推动了加密世界诸多重大投资的人提问的好机会。

And I thought, well, maybe this is our chance to sort of ask a person who's really, in some ways, responsible for a lot of the big investments that have propped up the crypto world.

也许这是个机会，让我们理解为什么尽管有大量证据表明这个行业正陷入困境，他依然对加密货币的前景保持乐观。

Maybe this is a chance to understand why he's still optimistic about where crypto is headed despite all of the evidence that suggests that this industry is in real trouble.

克里斯·迪克森，欢迎来到《硬分叉》。

Chris Dixon, welcome to Hardfork.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

所以我们来谈谈你的新书《读、写、拥有》。

So we're gonna talk about your new book, Read Write Own.

但首先，我想回忆一下我们大约十年前的一次对话。

But first, I wanna recall or or recollect a conversation that you and I had about ten years ago.

我不知道你是否记得，但那时我一直在关注我

I don't know if you remember this, but we were you know, I've been following I

我想我们当时在旧金山之类的吧。

think we were in SF or something.

我记得我们当时在码头什么的。

I remember being on a pier or something.

对吗？

Is that right?

我有点记不清了，这是对的吗？

I vague is this is this correct or no?

是的。

Yeah.

我们当时在旧金山的渡轮大楼买咖啡。

We were getting coffee at the Ferry Building in San Francisco.

哎呀。

Uh-oh.

我是不是说了什么，做了个错误的预测？

Did I say something that that was I made a bad prediction.

你告诉我，你对加密货币产生了浓厚兴趣。

Well, you told me that you'd gotten really interested in crypto.

我记得这次对话，因为那正是比特币第一次大规模繁荣时期，当时充满了狂热。

And I remember this conversation because this was during the first sort of big Bitcoin boom, and, you know, there was a lot of exuberance.

人们赚了很多钱。

People were making tons of money.

我还记得你当时跟我说，你们科技媒体圈的人都得关注加密货币，因为这是个特别有意思的领域，它的影响力远不止比特币这么简单。

And I remember you telling me, like, you guys in the tech media, you need to pay attention to crypto because it's a really fascinating story, and it's a lot bigger than just Bitcoin.

就像这些区块链技术，将来肯定会成为举足轻重的存在。

Like, these blockchain things, they're gonna be a really big deal.

硅谷很多最顶尖的程序员都在钻研这些东西，它们最终会变成极具价值的产品，彻底颠覆科技行业。

A lot of the smartest programmers in Silicon Valley are working on this stuff, and it's gonna turn into real valuable products that will sort of revolutionize the tech industry.

我还记得那次对话之后，我才开始真正认真地看待加密货币，开始以更严肃的态度去报道这个领域。

And And I remember that conversation for me was a moment where I started to kind of look at crypto more seriously and and cover it in a more serious way.

然后一晃十年过去，我觉得你说得没错，加密货币确实成了一段极具话题性的经历，但原因却不是十年前你我会预想的那样。

And fast forward a decade, I think you were right that crypto has been a very interesting story, but I think not for the reasons that you and I would have predicted a decade ago.

你也看到了，现在这行充斥着惊天骗局，交易所接连倒闭，高管锒铛入狱，还有数十亿美元在一夜之间暴涨又蒸发。

You know, we've got these massive scams, exchanges collapsing, executives going to jail, you know, billions of dollars being made and lost overnight.

同时啊，我四处观察了一番，实在找不到任何实打实的案例能证明区块链给什么领域带来了真正的变革。

And meanwhile, as I kind of look around, I can't actually see any tangible examples of where blockchains have transformed much of anything.

而且你当时提到过的那些顶尖程序员，很多都已经离开加密货币领域，转而投身人工智能的开发了。

And a lot of the really smart programmers that you were talking about have left crypto and are pivoting to building AI.

所以我的第一个问题是，到底发生了什么？

So my first question to you is just what happened?

是的。

Yeah.

听好了。

Look.

我认为确实偏离了轨道。

I do think it went off.

我的意思是，我并不反对你的观点。

I mean, I'm not disagreeing with you.

我认为事情的发展并没有达到我期望的方向。

I think it went it did not go the way that I wanted it to go.

如果你想要深入探讨的话，我会把2020到2023年这段时间描述为：对于像我这样关注应用和实用价值的人来说，起初前景非常光明。

To the extent you wanna get into it, I would describe the last kind of 2020 to 2023 as starting off very promising for somebody like me who is interested in applications and utility.

我觉得当时确实出现了一些非常有趣的东西。

I thought there were some really interesting things built.

然后我觉得事情脱轨了。

And then I think it went off the rails.

说实话，写这本书的部分原因就是我是在那之后开始写的。

And, honestly, like that like, part of writing this book like, I started writing this book after that.

我当时在反思，我是否还想继续做下去？

I was, like, reflecting on, do I wanna keep doing this?

我不想成为这种赌场文化的一部分。

Like, I don't wanna be part of the this sort of casino culture.

你知道的。

You know?

这是这项技术本身的根本问题，还是只是到目前为止，被错误的人和错误的产品主导了？

Is is that is that something fundamental to the technology, or is it just so far the wrong people, the wrong products have been built?

你看，我相信是后者。

You know, look, I believe it's the second.

就是后者。

It's the latter of those.

而且，让我换个角度说，有数以百万计的人对这样一种理念充满热情：你可以拥有一个没有任何公司背后操控的金融服务，它真正由社区所有和运营。

And that and and, look, I'll just also put it in the context of, like, there are many millions of people who are very excited about the idea that you can have a financial service that's that the way there is no company behind it, where it's truly owned and operated by a community.

我觉得，凯文，我当初对这一点的判断是正确的，这个理念已经深深引起了共鸣。

Like, I think the one thing I was right about, Kevin, is that idea has resonated deeply.

如果有人提出其他方式来对抗互联网的集中化，我也愿意倾听。

And if there's another proposal for how to fight consolidation of the Internet, like, I'm open to it.

你知道吗？

I you know?

但这就是我的提议，我想。

But but this is my proposal, I guess.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，你知道，我们接下来可以探讨一下，区块链是否仍然能实现你当初的愿景。

And, you know, we'll get into could blockchain still, still realize the the vision that you had back then.

但我知道，克里斯，我认识你已经很久了。

But, know, I just wanna say, Chris, like, I've I've known you for a long time.

在加密货币之前，你就投资了很多我觉得非常有趣的东西。

You invested in a lot of stuff before crypto that I thought was super interesting.

当你进入加密领域时，对我来说，这和对凯文来说一样，是一个重要的信号。

And when you got into crypto, to me, this was one of the big signals for me as it was for Kevin.

这说明是时候认真对待这件事了。

It's like, it's time to take this seriously.

在接下来的几年里，我认为自己努力成为一名保持开放心态的记者，不轻易断定所有东西都是骗局或欺诈。

And over the next few years, I think what happened is I tried to be one of the journalists keeping an open mind about stuff and not assuming that everything was a fraud or a scam.

但当我回看2122年写的东西时，我所报道的内容，最好的情况是无关紧要，最坏的情况是让人们损失了大量钱财。

But when I look back on what I wrote in 2122, the stuff that I covered was at best irrelevant, and at worst was stuff that people lost a whole lot of money on.

所以当你现在带着这本书回来，说让我们认真对待区块链时，我心中仍残留着一种挥之不去的阴影——我曾经尝试过，而且深深后悔自己过去那些担忧。

So when you're coming back around with a book and and saying, like, let's take the blockchain seriously, I just have this lingering hangover of, like, I tried it, and I, like, deeply regret what I worried about before.

是的。

Yeah.

但凯西，公平地说，我早在2008年就创办了一家人工智能公司。

But, Casey, I mean, like, in fairness, like, I started an AI company in 2008.

它叫Hunch，我在2011年把它卖给了eBay。

It's called Hunch, and it was I sold it to eBay in 2011.

坦白说，它并没有达到我预期的成功。

And frankly, it wasn't the success that I would hoped it was.

如果你在2012年问我，我会给你列出一堆它失败的原因。

And if you'd asked me in 2012, I would have given you a list of reasons why it didn't work.

但实际上，问题在于时机。

And in reality, it was timing.

就是时机的问题。

It was timing.

第一篇神经网络论文发表于1943年。

And and, look, the first neural network paper was 1943.

对吧？

Right?

那是麦卡洛克和皮茨的作品。

It was McCulloch and Pitchfork.

然后还有图灵，他的论文发表于1950年。

And then there was Turing, and his paper was in 1950.

我认为他预测二十年内，我们会拥有通过图灵测试的智能机器。

I think he predicted in twenty years, we'd have, you know, intelligent machines that pass the Turing test.

八十年代曾出现过所谓的AI泡沫，但后来它真的成功了。

There was a there was a so called AI bubble in the eighties, and then it worked.

那为什么它成功了呢？

And why did it work?

因为，你知道，虽然有很多聪明的人，其他方面也都很好，但很大程度上是因为电子游戏——电子游戏推动了GPU的发展，技术因此进步了。

Because, you know, there's a lot of smart people, everything else, but a lot of it was because of video games because video games drove GPUs and it got better.

我觉得从外部来看，你们是科技记者，当然明白这一点，但从外界的视角看，有时候这些成就看起来像是凭空出现的。

I I think that from the outside I mean, you guys are tech journalists and you know this, but from the outside view, sometimes these things look like they're sort of immaculate conception.

但实际上，背后都有这些混乱复杂的背景故事。

In reality, there's these messy background stories.

所以，是的，我同意你的观点。

So, look, I agree with you.

你说得对。

Again, you're right.

它还没有实现其潜力。

It hasn't realized its potential.

这是否意味着它永远无法实现其潜力？

Does that mean it will never realize its potential?

我不认为情况会这样。

I I I don't think that's the case.

所以，克里斯，这本书《读写拥有》是你对加密货币、区块链以及你对去中心化未来看法的一种汇总。

So, Chris, this book, Read Write Own, is sort of a a a collection of your sort of thoughts about crypto crypto and blockchains and what you think the future of decentralization might be.

这本书的核心论点是什么？用几句话概括一下。

What is the main argument in a couple of sentences of this book?

核心论点是，互联网最初的愿景是成为一个由大众共同掌控的系统，创作者、企业家和公司可以直接与受众建立联系。

So the main argument is that the original promise of the Internet was to be a democratically controlled system where creators, entrepreneurs, companies could build direct relationships with their audiences.

但与此同时，一些大型公司介入其中，成为了中介。

In the meantime, a set of large companies stepped in the middle and became intermediaries.

那就是Facebook、Apple、Amazon、Google等公司。

And that's Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Google, etcetera.

这对这些公司来说极其有利，但我认为这严重损害了互联网其他参与者的利益。

And that has been incredibly beneficial to those companies and I think has significantly hurt the rest of the participants of the Internet.

因此，我非常担心互联网会变得像过去的广播电视一样，只有ABC、CBS和NBC这样的频道。

And so I I am very concerned that the Internet is going to become like old broadcast TV, where you have sort of ABC, CBS, and NBC.

就这些了。

And that's it.

我认为这对创作者和创业者来说是一个糟糕的结果。

And I think that is a bad outcome for creators, for entrepreneurs.

顺便说一句，对于风险投资家来说，我们的业务是资助初创公司并维持一个充满活力的互联网。

By way, for venture capitalists, we are in the business of funding startups and having a dynamic Internet.

我认为我们正朝着这个方向发展。

And I think we're headed there.

然后，这项技术出现了，我认为，以区块链作为本书的核心论点，如果Web1的协议如电子邮件是正题，Web2的系统如Facebook是反题，那么我认为区块链是一种综合。

And then we have this technology come along, which I think with blockchains as the kind of core argument of the book is if Web one protocols like email are of thesis and Web two systems like Facebook or Antithesis, I see blockchains as sort of synthesis.

它们可以说是结合了两个世界的优点。

They're kind of the best of both worlds.

我想用一个说法来描述：它兼具早期网络协议（比如网页和邮件协议）能为社会带来的益处，同时又拥有Web2.0网络的部分竞争优势。

Use the phrase the societal benefits of protocol networks of early kind of web protocol web and email protocols, but some of the competitive advantages of of the Web two point networks.

这就是我的核心论点。

That's my argument.

所以我认为我们完全有机会构建新的模式——举个例子，导致互联网走向集中化的一个关键节点就是RSS的衰落。事情是这样的：在2008年，不太了解的朋友我可以解释下，RSS是和电子邮件、互联网基础网络一样的开放协议，它本身是支持社交网络功能的。

And so I think you could build so for example, I think a very critical moment that led to the consolidation of the Internet was the fall of RSS, was the fact that so in 02/2008, for those who don't know, RSS is an open protocol, of like email and the web, which allows for social networking features.

现在大家都忘了这件事，但大概在2008年左右，RSS曾是Twitter和Facebook不容小觑的竞争对手。

And people forget this now, but in, like, 2008 or so, RSS was a legitimate competitor to Twitter and Facebook.

而现在的RSS嘛，你也知道，只在播客领域还在使用。

RSS is now you know, it's used in podcasting.

它还在一些小众场景里能用，但显然早就不是主流了，它的用户规模连Twitter、Facebook这类平台的零头都远比不上。

It's used in kind of niche things, but it's clearly not, like, the dominant, you know it has no no user base that's a fraction of the size of Twitter and Facebook and things like this.

另外，你看，去年全球顶级社交网络的总营收达到了15万亿美元。

And, look, the the the the aggregate revenue of the top social networks last year was $150,000,000,000.

这笔钱都流入了这些公司。

That money went to those companies.

如果RSS获胜了，我相信这笔钱的绝大部分会流向网络的边缘节点。

Had RSS won, I believe the vast majority of that money would have gone to the edges of the network.

这具有巨大的经济影响，因此，如何设计这些网络，其经济后果极为深远。

That has huge economic So, these topics of how do you architect these networks has profound economic consequences.

它还具有深远的政治影响。

It has profound political consequences.

谁有权决定谁拥有平台？

Who gets to decide who has a platform?

谁有权决定算法如何运作？

Who gets to decide with how the algorithms work?

谁可以获得认证？

Who gets verified?

比如，这应该是一个8美元的收费项目吗？

Like, should it be an $8 thing?

难道是靠你在推特认识的朋友吗？

Should it be because you know a friend at Twitter?

我认为所有这些体系

I think all of these systems.

我不觉得，只因为你碰巧搭建了一个热门社交网络，你就该决定全球经济、文化和政治的走向——可我们如今所处、正在朝之迈进的正是这样的体系。

I don't think that because you happen to build a popular social network, you should get to decide how global economics, culture, and politics works, which is the system that we have today and we're heading towards.

对不对？

Right?

所以核心论点是：有一种新技术，不得不承认因为加密货币赌场和其他各类乱象，这项技术的名声已经坏掉了，但这件事还有另一面。

So the core argument is there is a new technology, which admittedly has a has a sullied name because of the casino and other kinds of things, but there's another side to the coin.

他当时只请你讲几句话，你可真是接下了这个挑战讲了这么多。

He asked for a couple sentences, and you really took that challenge.

那个，我来说点事。

Here here's a here's a thing.

对。

Yeah.

那些句子是威廉·福克纳意义上的句子。

Those were sentences in, the William Faulkner sense of the word.

是的。

Yeah.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我认为，或许能让这场讨论不那么抽象的方法是谈论一些具体项目或具体公司。

I think maybe something that could help make this discussion a little less abstract is is talking about sort of particular projects or particular companies.

我想问你一个关于加密领域公司的项目，我几年前写过一家叫Helium的公司。

And and I wanna ask you about a company, and a project in crypto that I wrote about a few years ago, called Helium.

这是一家你的公司也投资过的公司。

This is also a company that, your firm invested in.

这是一家公司。

This was a company.

他们制造的基本上是无线路由器，你可以把它放在家里、屋顶上或办公室里，这些设备能为你周围的设备提供网络连接。

They were making these essentially wireless routers that you could put in your house or on your roof or at your office, and these things would basically provide connectivity to devices around you.

同时，它们还会挖矿一种加密货币代币。

And at the same time, they would also mine a cryptocurrency token.

所以这个想法是，你不需要像康卡斯特或其它公司那样花费数十亿美元来建设新的无线网络，而是可以通过向普通用户提供加密货币作为回报，激励他们将这些路由器接入网络。

And so the idea was kind of that you would instead of, you know, Comcast or whoever, like, spending billions of dollars to build out a new wireless network, you could essentially incentivize ordinary people to do this by giving them some crypto in exchange for providing these routers to the network.

当时，我觉得这个想法挺酷的。

And at the time, I thought, like, that sounds like kind of a cool idea.

这是一种非常原创的方式，用来启动一个庞大而昂贵的基础设施项目。

It's kind of an original way to bootstrap a kind of big expensive infrastructure project.

所以我写了关于它的文章，而且对它持非常积极的态度。

So I wrote about it, and I was pretty positive about it.

但后来，很明显，整个项目本质上就像一座纸牌屋，几乎没人真正使用这个网络。

And then afterwards, like, it became clear that this whole thing was essentially a house of cards, that no one barely anyone was actually using the network.

这家公司的内部人员和高管秘密地给自己分配了大量代币。

The company insiders and executives had, like, secretly given themselves a big percentage of the tokens.

我不同意这种批评。

I I I don't agree with the criticism.

那个，先让我把话说完。

Well, let me just let me just finish the question.

而且说到底，这家公司一直在夸大自身的实际经营状况。

And and, you know, essentially, this company had made itself look more successful than it really was.

后来代币价格暴跌，在那些聚集了大量helium支持者的 Reddit 子版块等平台上，全都是在抱怨的人——他们赔光了所有钱，或是花大价钱购置的路由器根本没给他们带来任何回报。

The token price crashed and the subreddits and places where people who were big, you know, proponents of helium, started to fill with just people complaining that they had lost all this money or spent all this money on routers that weren't giving them back anything in return.

哪怕到今天，还总有人来给我发消息，说他们被helium坑惨了，还因为我当初报道过这个项目而生我的气。

People write to me all the time, even today, who feel burned by helium and are mad at me for writing about it.

但你在你的书里确实写道，helium是加密货币具备实用性的一个绝佳例证。

But you actually write in your book that helium is a good example of crypto's usefulness.

所以我很好奇，在你看来helium到底证明了什么？

So I'm I'm curious, like, what what in your mind did helium prove?

对。

Yeah.

而且我记得我在书里提过，helium只解决了一半的问题。

And so and I I think in the book, say Helium solved half of the problem.

让我解释一下。

And let me explain that.

所以，这个想法我已经听人谈论了二十年，那就是：如果我们能创建一个草根版的Verizon，会不会是个有趣的创业点子？

So this there's been an this has been an idea that I've heard about for twenty years, which is the idea of wouldn't it be an interesting entrepreneurial idea if we could create kind of a grassroots Verizon?

但挑战在于鸡生蛋还是蛋生鸡的问题，这也是许多科技企业面临的难题。

But the challenge is the chicken and egg problem, which is the challenge with a lot of tech businesses.

对吧？

Right?

这就像是你必须同时服务市场的两个方面。

It's like how do you you gotta do two two sides of the market.

因此，Helium的洞察在于，可以通过财务激励来推动市场的一方——即供应方。

And so so the insight that Helium had is that you can use financial incentives to help, with one side of the market, the supply side of the market.

他们在供应方做得很好，比任何其他尝试都走得更远。

They did a good job on the supply side, which is farther than any other attempt got.

但他们并没有建立起需求方。

They had not built out the demand side.

他们现在正在建设，我相信他们正在取得进展。

They are building it out now, and I believe they're making progress.

我个人并没有深度参与。

I'm not personally deeply involved.

但我的意思是，我根本没觉得这会一夜之间发生，这真是一个非常宏大雄心勃勃的构想。

But, I mean, I just idea that it was gonna happen overnight, like, it's a really big ambitious idea.

这类事情需要时间。

It takes these things take time.

理解这个市场的供需双方。

Understand the the supply and the demand sides of that market.

但我觉得另一种描述海林发生的事情的方式是，他们用类似赌场的经济模式来建设一项没人想要、或者只有极少数人有实际应用场景的基础设施项目。

And but I think another way to describe what happened with helium is that they used casino like economics to build an infrastructure project that no one wanted or that very few people actually had real use cases for.

所以我不，我不，所以他们。

So I I don't I I don't So they.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，他们最初是从这个开始的，我忘了叫什么名字了。

Well, they first they started off with this I forgot the name of it.

好像是LoRa什么的。

It was LoRa something.

是一种挺奇怪的

It was some weird

当然是LoRaWAN。

LoRaWAN, of course.

这就是那个著名的错误。

That's the famous mistake.

这是一个错误，后来他们改用5G了。

Which is a mistake, and they switched it to five g.

所以，那是第一件事。

So, like, that was the first thing.

现在他们已经可以去获取了。

And now they have you can go get it.

你可以去注册一个服务，我认为它会通过T-Mobile或其他方式回传数据，并在可能的地方使用Helium网络。

You can go there's a there's a service where you can go sign up, and I think it back hauls it backfills with T Mobile or something, and it uses helium wherever it can.

如果某个区域没有覆盖，它就会通过T-Mobile进行补盲。

And then it use it backfills with if it doesn't have coverage in that area, it backfills with T Mobile.

你知道吗？

And it you know?

而且他们正在逐步扩展这个网络。

And they're building that out.

而这 simply 就需要时间。

And so and that just simply takes time.

你知道，我想我不太理解这种批评，你看。

You know, I I guess I don't understand the criticism that look.

我的书里提到的一个观点是，补贴是互联网公司非常古老的一种策略。

I mean, one of the points I make in the book is that subsidization is a very, very old tactic among among Internet companies.

为什么这些公司都必须筹集数百亿的风险投资？

Why do all these companies have to raise many, many, many billions in venture capital?

因为他们为很多提案都提供了补贴。

Because they sub a lot of their proposal pitches, they subsidize.

我觉得氦气网络是这样的，好吧。

I see helium as, okay.

现在，开放的力量拥有了金融工具。

Now the forces of openness have financial tools

但确实有人补贴了氦气网络的建设。

But someone did subsidize the building of the Helium network.

是那些认为自己能靠氦气代币发财的人，他们买了大量这种无用的路由器，并连接到互联网。

It was the people who thought that they could get rich on Helium tokens and bought a bunch of these useless routers and, like, hooked them up to the Internet.

我们可以跳过氦气网络这个话题，但我认为这是一个非常清晰的例子，展示了在加密领域看起来像是成功自举的项目——如果没有这种模式，原本可能无法获得资金或需要风投支持。

Like, it it we can move on from helium, but I I think that is a very clear example of how something that looks to people in crypto, like a successful example of bootstrapping some project that wouldn't have gotten funding otherwise or would need venture capital otherwise.

如果你再深入一层，就会发现这实际上只是把风险和补贴分散给了大量普通用户，而他们只是被忽悠着参与了进来。

If you drill down one layer, it actually is just spreading the risk and the the the subsidies around to a bunch of normal people who just got, like, snookered into participating

参与了这件事。

in thing.

等一下。

Wait a second.

让我先说几件事。

Think for a couple of things I'll say.

首先，我们从未参与过任何向公众出售代币的项目。

First of all, there has we have not ever been involved with a project that sold tokens to the public.

好的。

Okay.

为了明确一下。

Just to be clear.

我不清楚这些人指的是什么，但我向你保证，我们参与的任何公司都不会，也永远不会允许他们这样做——向公众出售代币，绝对不可能。

Like, I I don't know what these people are referring to, but, like, helium never I guarantee you, because no company we're involved with nor would we ever would we, you know, allow them to do this, sells tokens to the public No.

你通过插上路由器来赚取代币。

You would earn tokens by plugging in your router.

他们通过空投获得代币。

Else earns them through airdrops.

明白吗？

Okay?

我只是想说清楚。

Like, so that's just to be clear.

所以，他们说这些代币被卖给了散户投资者，这种说法根本不对。

So, like, this idea that they're, like, somehow, you know, selling these things to to retail investors, that's simply not true.

我的意思是，我可以给你看看这些子版块的帖子，确实有人花了数千美元，因为有人告诉他们，只要插上这个路由器，就能赚加密货币，还能因此发财。

I mean, I'm I'm on these sub can show you the posts on these subreddits if you want, but there are people who spent, you know, thousands of dollars because someone told them that you plug in this router and it makes you crypto, and you you get rich off this.

我的意思是，我

And I mean, I

我不认为公司说过这种话。

don't people shouldn't I don't think the company said that.

对。

No.

对。

No.

不。

No.

但不该这么说。

But said that shouldn't have said that.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是

I mean

但在一个拥有某种代币的环境中，无论如何，我们可以继续往下说。

But in an environment where you have a token that's sort of anyway, we we can move on.

但凯西，我想让

But, Casey, I wanna let

你来吧，我的意思是，我们换个话题，别再谈海氦了。

you do I mean, let's 's so let's, like, yeah, like, shift away from helium.

但我确实认为这里有一个值得探讨的想法，那就是当你将一个网络金融化时会发生什么？

But I I do think that there is an idea here worth exploring, which is what happens when you financialize a a network?

你知道吗，当我观察到这些网络的兴起与衰落时，我觉得，只要你至少在人们心中种下这样的想法——他们可以通过做某些事情获得不错的回报，不一定发财，但至少能赚到钱，那么吸引来的人就会和你只是像YouTube那样说‘嘿，来这儿上传视频吧’时完全不同。

You know, as I've observed some of these networks rise and fall, it seems to me that when you at least plant the seed with people that they can make good maybe not get rich, but just get get get paid by doing something, you wind up attracting a different kind of person than if you're just like YouTube and you just say, hey.

就是，来这儿，上传你的视频。

Like, show up here and upload your videos.

我的意思是，我想到的是Axie Infinity，这是一家安德森·霍洛维茨公司的项目，我曾经写过关于它的文章。

I mean, the the thing that I'm thinking of is is Axie Infinity, which is a a company, an Andreessen Horowitz company that I wrote about.

如果你没听说过，它是一款让人想起《精灵宝可梦》的游戏。

If you haven't heard of it, it was a game reminiscent of Pokemon.

它让玩家通过战斗自己的小怪物来赚取加密货币，这些小怪物被称为Axies。

It let players earn cryptocurrency from battling their little monsters, which are called axes.

这些Axies也是NFT。

The those axes are also NFTs.

你要么得花钱买一个才能玩游戏，要么可以向拥有者租用。

You had to buy one to play the game, or you could rent them, from their owners.

我在2021年写这篇文章时，它在菲律宾正迅速兴起。

When I wrote about it in 2021, it was taking off in The Philippines.

人们通过玩这个游戏赚的钱超过了最低工资。

People were earning more than the minimum wage by playing it.

我觉得这挺有意思的，于是我就写了这篇文章。

I thought that's pretty interesting, and I wrote about it.

但它的金融本质要求不断有新投资者入场来支撑价格，就像传统庞氏骗局那样。

But the financial nature of it essentially required that new investors would come in to prop up the price just like you would find in a traditional Ponzi scheme.

最终，价值6.25亿美元的代币被盗。

And then eventually, $625,000,000 worth of tokens were stolen.

这个游戏的整体经济体系崩溃了。

The game's whole economy collapsed.

所以，我在试图理解的是，当然，我们希望这次黑客攻击没有发生，也许我们从这个网络中学到了一些教训。

So, like, I'm trying to understand while, you know, obviously, you we would wish that the the hack hadn't happened and, you know, maybe we learned some lessons about the the network.

但据我理解，Axie 正是你所梦想的区块链未来——人们真正投入其中，拥有部分收益。

But like, as far as I can understand it, like, Axie is your your dream of a blockchain based future where people have skin in the game, they have they have they have a piece of the action.

而在我看来，它并没有带来积极的结果。

And it and it in my it it just seems like it is not doing good things.

是的。

Yeah.

所以好吧。

So okay.

所以，我认为我的看法是，Axie团队也会这么说。

So, look, this the way I view it is and and I think the Axie team would say this.

人们过于关注金融层面了。

The focus is way too much on the financial aspects.

像Axie这样的项目所带来的一课是，首要目标应该是成为一个超越金融属性的有趣游戏。

One of the lessons from things like Axie is that the primary goal needs to be a fun game outside of the financial aspects.

对吧？

Right?

所以你需要一些类似Roblox或者EVE在线这样的东西。

So you need something, let's just say, like Roblox or Eve Eve online.

我认为还需要有政策层面的应对措施。

And I think there needs to be policy approaches.

顺便说一下，我在书里提到过，我们也公开说过这一点。

By the way, like, I say this in the book, and we've say this publicly.

比如，我认为对所有代币实行更长的锁定期会是一个重大改进，因为这能消除一大类投机行为。

Like, I think, for example, having much, much longer lockups on all tokens would be a significant improvement because I think you would just remove a whole class of kind of mercenary behavior.

我不认为我们应该反对人们追求利润的动机。

Like, I don't think we should be against people having a profit motive.

真正的危害在于短期利润动机，我认为这部分问题可能需要通过政策来解决。

I think the real harm is in the short term profit motive, And I think some of that probably has to be achieved through policy.

一部分则需要通过更好的产品来实现。

Some of it has to be achieved through better products.

但在我看来，因为一些早期尝试过度金融化了，就完全否定任何允许用户获得经济回报的点对点经济数字服务，这无异于因噎废食。

But to me, it's throwing the baby out with the bathwater to say that because some early attempts over financialize things, there should never be digital services where the, you know, you can have peer to peer economies where the users can earn financial rewards.

我不认为这意味着我们必须放弃区块链。

I don't think it means we have to kill blockchains.

但我确实认为，我们必须认真思考如何将这些合理的批评融入到更优的设计中。

I do think we it means we have to be thoughtful about how we incorporate those legitimate criticisms into better designs.

其实我的想法是，我的观点从来都不是这类东西应该被永久禁止。

Well, I was like, you know, I I my my my view isn't that this stuff should be banned forever.

甚至都不是说人们不该继续研究琢磨这些东西。

It's not even that, you know, people should stop noodling on this thing.

我觉得那样做完全没问题。

Like, that is fine to me.

我只是觉得，在有人做出一件真正厉害的东西——而不只是加了区块链的跨境汇款之前，我大概率都会对这类东西持忽视态度。

I just feel like until someone makes one cool thing that is not just like remittances with a blockchain, I'm just kind of inclined to ignore it.

因为在我看来，就投入区块链的人才、资本和时间总量而言，就我所知，硅谷历史上从来没有任何一项技术像区块链这样，投入了这么多时间、资金和人才，产出却像我们目前从区块链中得到的这么少？

Because when I look at the amount of talent, capital, and time that has gone into it, there's basically never been a technology in the history of Silicon Valley, as far as I can tell, where more time, money, and talent went into it and produced as little as we have so far gotten out of the blockchain?

我不太确定。

I don't know.

我想想，在21世纪初我刚参加工作的时候，人们也会对电信设备说同样的话，真的，我也说不清。

I mean, like, I think that like, when I started my career in the early two thousands, people would have said that about about, you know, telecom equipment and, you know, I don't know.

我整个职业生涯都在经历这种起起伏伏，总会有人说我们在某件事上过度投资了。

I've feel I like I've gone through my whole career with these ups and downs, and people say we overinvested in something.

加密货币，我觉得，我不确定。

Cryptos, I think, I don't know.

我不知道确切的百分比是多少，但我觉得这在当今的风险投资总额中所占比例并不大。

I don't know what the exact percentage is, but it's I don't think it's a huge percentage of total venture investment these days.

是的。

Yeah.

我们最近在节目中讨论过刚刚获批的比特币ETF，是的。

We talked recently on the show about the the Bitcoin ETFs that have just been approved Yeah.

用于交易。

For for trading.

基本上就是允许人们在退休基金或其他地方买卖与比特币价格挂钩的产品。

Basically, letting people buy and sell, you know, things that subtract the price of Bitcoin in their retirement funds or whatever.

这在比特币圈子里很多人一直持乐观态度。

And that's something that a lot of people in the Bitcoin world have been optimistic about.

我知道你不是比特币的狂热信徒，但当你放眼当今的加密货币领域时，有哪些项目让你感到乐观？

I know you're not a Bitcoin laser eyes guy, but as you look out across the crypto landscape today, like, what are the projects that make you optimistic?

我职业生涯的大部分时间都专注于创意人士。

A lot of my career has been focused on creative people.

你知道，尽管这是最受反感的领域，但我依然对此最感兴趣，那就是NFT。

You know, the the most disliked area, I'm still the most excited about, which is NFTs.

我认为NFT为创意人士提供了一种非常强大的方式，比如以音乐人为例。

I think NFTs are a really powerful way for creative people, like, just take musicians as an example.

音乐是一个用户非常热爱的领域。

Like, so, you know, music is an area where users love music.

用户愿意为音乐付费。

Users love to pay for music.

有很多才华横溢的音乐人。

There's lots of talented musicians.

如今的问题在于这些中间商，也就是唱片公司。

The problem today is these intermediaries, and it's labels.

还有Spotify。

It's Spotify.

这涉及一大堆不同的中间环节。

It's a whole bunch of different layers of intermediaries.

比如，现在有两家公司正在做与音乐相关的NFT。

We So have, like, two companies, for example, doing music related NFTs.

你得到一个NFT，它是一种数字藏品，也是一张后台通行证，证明你是第一个支持这位音乐人的粉丝，还能参加特别活动。

And it's like you get an NFT, it's a digital collectible, and it's a backstage pass, and it's proof that you were the first one that liked the musician, and you can go to a special event.

目前有很多不同的实验正在开展。

And, like, there's just a whole bunch of experiments happening.

但我认为，区块链、NFT这些东西，对于为创意人士探索新的商业模式来说，是非常强大的工具。

But I think that this is a very powerful tool, you know, blockchains and NFTs and these things for thinking about new business models for creative people.

而且，我想我应该说，我其实应该支持这个想法。

And and, I mean, I I guess I should say it's like, I, like, I I should be rooting for that idea.

我想我确实支持。

And and I guess I am.

我的意思是，如果你刚才描述的这些真的实现了，那我希望自己也能从中受益。

Like, I mean, if what you just described comes to pass, then hopefully, that's something I would be able to take advantage of.

对吧？

Right?

就像我说的，我正在做很多你提到的事情。

Like, I'm doing a lot of the things that you say.

我确实经营自己的生意。

I do run my own business.

我是一个独立创作者。

I am a solo creator.

我通过电子邮件与受众建立了直接联系。

I have been able to forge a direct relationship with an audience using email.

这太棒了。

Like, it's awesome.

你所描述的一切，超出了我最疯狂的想象。

Like, everything that you're describing is beyond my wildest dreams.

我在Discord上有一个社群，他们会给我提供想法，并在我犯错时指出问题。

I have a community on Discord that gives me ideas and pushes back on me when I'm wrong.

所有这些都太棒了。

Like, all that stuff is amazing.

我一直在想，我是用当今的互联网来做这些事的，甚至还能以很低的抽成率做到。

I just keep coming back to the fact it's like, I I do it using today's Internet, and I've I've even been able to do it with a pretty low take rate.

所以我很好奇，到底什么样的区块链技术能让我加速这一进程。

So I'll just be curious to see, like, what winds up being on the blockchain that enables, you know, me to to accelerate that.

我仍然对这个想法持开放态度。

I'm still open to the idea.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为赚钱是一个方向，比如NFT和其他一些有趣的新实验。

I think making money would be one, and that's NFTs and other kinds of new interesting experiments.

我猜，凯西，你仍然依赖这些大型社交网络来进行分发和推广吧。

I assume, Casey, you're still dependent on on these big social networks for distribution and things too.

比如，你做不到对吧？

Like, you can't Right?

我的意思是，电子邮件可以让你分发内容，但你怎么获取新用户呢？

I mean, email lets you deliver the thing, but how do you acquire new users?

对吧？

Right?

还有像Discord这样的平台，迟早可能会像Twitter那样降低链接的优先级，也许我也不知道。

And like Discord, at some point, look, maybe they deprioritize links the way the Twitter is and maybe I don't know.

我认为在这种情况下，你是否希望创业者们构建一些替代性的工具，作为另一种出路？

And I think in that world, do you want people, entrepreneurs building alternative sets of tools that that might provide an outlet.

这就是我的观点。

That that's that's my argument.

对吧？

Right?

比如，我

Like, I

是的。

Yeah.

克里斯，在我们结束采访前，我觉得听完你聊的这些内容，肯定会有不少人觉得这番话非常有道理。

Chris, before we let you go, I I I think there will be people who listen to you talking about this stuff and think that makes a lot of sense to me.

但也会有另一些人提出质疑：这不过是一个在加密货币公司砸了数十亿美元的人，在自卖自夸，借着这场媒体行程，本质上是为安德森·霍洛维茨基金的加密部门持有的区块链和Web3投资做营销。

I think there will be other people who say, this is just someone who has invested billions of dollars into crypto companies, who is sort of talking his own book and going on this press tour to essentially do marketing for the blockchain and Web three investments of Andreessen Horowitz crypto.

我很好奇，如果这件事和你没有利益牵扯，不管是你个人的资金还是你投资人的钱都没有押注在这上面，你还会保持这么乐观的态度吗？

I'm curious, like, if you didn't have money on the line, if you didn't have skin in the game, both your own personal capital and your investors' money, would you still be this optimistic?

我也不确定。

I don't know.

我想说，我整个职业生涯一直都保持着乐观的心态。

I mean, look, I've I've spent been optimistic kind of my whole career.

我是在互联网行业低谷期入行的，而且我在2002年创办了自己的第一家公司。

I mean, started in the Internet downturn, you know, and so I started my first company 02/1934.

你也知道，那个时候做互联网创业根本不吃香。

And that, you know, that was not a popular time to be doing Internet startups.

确实完全不受看好。

It really wasn't.

当时筹钱非常困难。

It was quite hard to raise money.

所以，纵观我整个职业生涯，每次当一群聪明人开始做某事时，起初可能不成功，但最终总会成功。

And so, look, I've just seen my whole career every time there's been a bunch of smart people, it doesn't work for a while, and then eventually it does.

我至今还没见过真正聪明的人最终做不成事。

And I have yet to see the really smart people eventually not get it to work.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以，我不知道，凯文。

So I don't know, Kevin.

而且，我想说，如果你读了这本书，很多人读完都会感到惊讶。

Like, also, would say, like, if you read this book, I think a lot of people are surprised when they read this book.

这本书并不是那种由基金经理写的、列举七个酷炫事物的书。

It's not like seven cool things written by fund manager kind of book.

我试图客观地给出利与弊。

Like, I try to be you know, give pros and cons.

正如我所说，这某种程度上是我对自己的一个考验。

And as I said, it was sort of a test for myself.

对吧？

Right?

所以你看。

And so look.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

显然，我对这件事是有利益关联的。

I obviously, I have an interest in this.

我的意思是，你也可以争论因果关系是相反的。

I mean, you could go you could argue the causality goes the other way.

我也从事这个行业，因为我本身就很乐观。

Like, I also work in this business because I am optimistic.

当然。

Sure.

我相信这个行业，而且我们公司也是如此，你明白吗？

I believe in it and the firm is you know?

所以这两种说法都站得住脚。

So you could argue either way.

不过没错，我们自己也切身投入在这个领域里。

But, yes, we have skin in the game.

我还觉得我们有着更大的切身利害关系：我真的认为，如果区块链发展不起来，科技初创企业的发展会受到极其严重的冲击。

I also think we have a bigger skin in the game, which is I do think that, like, if we don't have blockchains, like, I think it really, really will hurt tech startup activity.

所以你看啊，整个风险投资行业其实都是围绕着这种循环往复的新公司运作的，就好比老狮子死去，小狮子诞生。

So there's this like, you know, the whole venture industry is sort of based on this cyclical new companies, you know, the daddy lion dies and the baby lion's born.

可要是一直都只有一群老狮子占据着位置，那对整个风投行业来说可不是什么好事。

And, like, if we just have a bunch of, like, daddy lions forever, like, that's not good for venture capital.

所以没错，我这么说是有自身利益考量的。

So, yes, I'm self interested.

但我还是觉得，因果关系其实是反过来的。

But I I would argue that causality goes the other way.

我从事这个行业是因为我确实相信科技。

I'm in the business because I do believe in tech.

我也从小就接触Unix。

I've also like, I grew up on Unix.

我是在互联网环境中长大的。

I grew up on the web.

我是一个开源至上主义者。

I am a, like, open source maximalist.

我希望所有东西都是开源的，而我认为区块链是这一理念的延伸。

I would like to see everything open source, and I see blockchain as an extension of that.

但我希望人们能读一读这本书。

But I would hope people could read the book.

如果他们有批评意见，就针对书本身提出批评，而不是去揣测背后的动机。

And if they have a critique, critique the book and and not sort of the, you know, the motives behind it.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

那我们就到这里吧。

Well, we'll end there.

克里斯·迪克森，感谢你前来做客。

Chris Dixon, thank you for coming on.

这本书叫《读写拥有：构建互联网的下一个时代》，你今天面对我们的连环提问表现得非常耐心。

The book is Read Write Own, building the next era of the Internet, and, you've been a good sport here while we grilled you.

再次感谢你前来做客。

So thanks for coming on.

谢谢你，克里斯。

Thanks, Chris.

你们提的问题确实更有挑战性，但提得很好，也很公正。

You guys are those are tougher questions, but they were good they were good, and you guys were fair.

谢谢你们。

Thank you.

好的。

Alright.

谢谢你来，克里斯。

Thanks for coming, Chris.

谢谢。

Thanks.

好吧。

Okay.

好的。

Alright.

保重。

Take care.

我们回来后，该玩一局Hat GPT了。

When we come back, it's time to play a round with Hat GPT.

我们给《纽约时报》的员工提前展示了跨平台游戏功能，以下是他们的反馈。

We gave Times employees a preview of cross play from New York Times games, and here's what they had to say.