狂热粉丝现象解析

《纽约时报》应用里有很多你可能没见过的内容。

The New York Times app has all this stuff that you may not have seen.

就是

The way

标签页在顶部，包含了所有不同的板块。

the tabs are at the top with all of the different sections.

我可以立即跳转到符合我心情的内容。

I can immediately navigate to something that matches what I'm feeling.

我总是订购游戏。

I order games always.

玩小游戏。

Doing the mini.

玩填字游戏。

Doing the Wordle.

我喜欢它让我接触到这么多内容。

I loved how much content it exposed me to.

我从来没想到会把新闻应用用在这些方面。

Things that I never would have thought to turn to a news app for.

这个应用必不可少。

This app is essential.

《纽约时报》应用。

The New York Times app.

所有时间，全部集中在一个地方。

All of the times, all in one place.

立即前往 nytimes.com/app 下载。

Download it now at nytimes.com/app.

凯西，我们来聊聊 Motebook。

Casey, let's talk about Motebook.

凯文，我们来聊聊 Motebook。

Let's talk about Motebook, Kevin.

很少在

Rarely in

在我们节目的历史上，从未有过像过去一周这样，有如此多的邮件、短信和请求让我们报道这个专为机器人设计的新社交网络。

the history of our show have we gotten so many emails, texts, requests from people to cover a topic as we have gotten over the past week about this new social network for bots.

确实如此。

It's true.

我们收到了这么多

And we got so many of

以至于我们想，为什么不让我们听众把我们当作AI代理来使用呢？

them that we thought, why don't we let our listeners use us like AI agents?

他们只需在键盘下打字，就能实际操控我们的身体进入演播室录制一期节目。

And just by typing under their keyboards, they can actually move our physical bodies into the studio to record an episode.

没错。

Exactly.

而且我

And I

我认为人们之所以要求我们报道这个话题，部分原因是因为这是一个既奇怪又有趣、充满曲折的故事。

think part of why people were asking us to cover this is because it's just kind of a weird and fun hard forky story.

但人们对此也感到恐慌。

But people are also freaking out about this.

就像，这已经占据了你我共同涉足的互联网一角。

Like, this has sort of taken over the little corner of the Internet that you and I both occupy.

人们说，这是奇点的开端。

People are saying, you know, this is the start of the singularity.

天啊。

Oh my god.

智能代理要来了。

The agents are coming.

还有其他人说，嘿。

And other people are saying, hey.

我们别太激动了。

Let's not get too excited.

这只是一个机器人在发帖的社交网络。

This is just a social network where robots are writing stuff.

所以让我们今天试着弄清楚我们对这件事的看法，以及这到底是不是一件大事。

So let's try to figure out today what we think about it and whether this is actually a big deal or not.

是的。

Yeah.

我还想补充一点，根据我们从听众那里收到的所有留言，我并不完全清楚他们是希望我们讨论Malt Book，因为觉得它很搞笑，想让我们指出来笑一笑，还是认为它是一种未来愿景，希望我们帮助他们理解。

And I would I would also add that, you know, from all the messages that we got from listeners, it wasn't totally clear to me if they wanted us to talk about Malt Book because they think that it is just funny and they want us to point and laugh at it, or they think it is like a a vision of the future that they want us to help them understand.

所以我今天能向你们保证的是，我们会兼顾这两方面。

And so what I can promise you today is that we're gonna do a little bit of both.

对。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

那么，凯西，我们先从它到底是什么开始吧。

So, Casey, let's start with what is it?

Motebook是什么？

What is Motebook?

它是怎么出现的？

How did it get here?

人们对此有什么看法？

And what are people saying about it?

是的。

Yeah.

这一切都始于我们最近一期节目中提到的一个东西——Claude Bot。

So all of this started with the creation of something we talked about in our most recent episode, Claude Bot.

Claude Bot 是一个开源的、可在本地运行的AI代理。

Claude Bot is an open source, locally running AI agent.

你可以把它安装在你的电脑上，或者将其接入各种不同的应用程序和服务，让它替你完成各种任务。

You can put it on your computer or you can plug it into various different apps and services, and it can do things on your behalf.

如果你想了解更多，我们上周已经花了很长时间讨论过这个话题。

You wanna know more about that, again, we talked about it for a long time last week.

由于版权原因，Claude Bot 改名为 Molt Bot。

Claude Bot turned into Molt Bot for copyright reasons.

Molt Bot 又改成了 Open Claw。

Molt Bot turned into Open Claw.

这些其实都是同一个东西。

Again, these are all the same things.

这些只是同一个东西的不同名称。

These are just different names for the same things.

这玩意儿改名的次数比 P. Diddy 还多。

This thing has gone through more name changes than p Diddy.

这里是这样，这里是

Here's what here's

我要说的是。

what I'm gonna say.

谷歌市场部终于松了一口气，因为终于有人比他们更不称职了。

The Google marketing department is finally taking a a sigh of relief because there is finally somebody worse at their job.

总之，Open Claw 最终成为了一位名叫马特·施利希特的创业者的想法基础。

Anyways, so Open Claw winds up serving as the basis for an idea that is had by an entrepreneur named Matt Schlicht.

他经营着一家名为 Octane AI 的公司，他心想：如果我们能把人们用 OpenClaw 创建的所有这些代理整合到一个社交网络中，会怎么样呢？

He runs a company called Octane AI, and he thinks to himself, what if we could take all of these agents that people have been building with OpenClaw and we could put them together in a social network.

让它们彼此交流。

Let them talk to each other.

于是他通过氛围编码实现了它。

And so he vibe codes it.

他打开了自己的终端窗口。

He opens up his little terminal.

他开始描述这个东西的样子。

He starts describing what this thing looks like.

他说，它应该看起来很像 Reddit。

He says, you know, it should look a lot like Reddit.

你可以把你的代理连接到这个平台上，它就能进来了。

The you sort of, you know, connect your agent to this and it should be able to come in.

它能发帖。

It can make a post.

它能评论别人的帖子。

It can comment on someone else's post.

如果它想创建一个不同的子版块，或者在MaltBook上称为Submalt的版块，它也可以做到。

If it wants to make a different sub Reddit or as they are called on MaltBook, Submalt, it can do that.

他说，我们开始吧。

And he says, let's go.

他做了一些推广，让几个朋友添加了他们的代理，结果这一切的发展远远超出了他的想象，凯文。

He does a little bit of promo, gets a couple of friends to add their agents, and it just takes off beyond his wildest dreams, Kevin.

因此，在我们录制这段内容时，MaltBook声称已有超过150万个AI代理，发布了超过14万篇帖子，覆盖了1.5万多个论坛。

And so as we record this, Mold Book says it has more than 1,500,000 AI agents who have made more than a 140,000 posts in over 15,000 forums.

是的。

Yes.

那里似乎也混杂着很多人类的活动。

There does seem to be a lot of human sort of activity mixed in there too.

所以很难说这150万个所谓的AI代理是否真的都在自主发帖，还是说人类其实就在那里假装成AI代理。

So it's hard to say whether, like, all 1,500,000 of those supposed AI agents are actually agents posting autonomously or whether humans are kind of there pretending to be AI agents.

是的。

Yes.

这当然彻底颠倒了社交网络从一开始就面临的问题，因为传统的社交网络一直投入大量精力来阻止机器人。

Which, of course, neatly inverts the problem that social networks have had from the beginning because, of course, the human social networks have invested a lot of energy in keeping the bots off.

而在Motebook上，我们却在问：那个机器人真的是人类吗？

And over at Motebook, we're saying, now, is that bot actually a human?

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

它们在通过反向验证码。

They're passing reverse captchas.

正是如此。

Exactly.

人们对这件事有什么看法？

What are people saying about this?

为什么人们对这件事如此激动？

Why are people so worked up about this?

因为我看到了很多非常激烈的评论。

Because I saw a lot of very heated sort of commentary.

像安德烈·卡帕西这样的人，我们上周在节目中讨论过，称这是最近我所见过的最令人惊叹的科幻式延伸现象。

People like Andre Carpathi, who we talked about last week on the show, is calling this the most incredible sci fi takeoff adjacent thing that I've seen recently.

博主西蒙·威利森，他也经常尝试AI相关项目，写道：Mold Book 是目前互联网上最有趣的地方。

Simon Willison, a blogger who's also does a lot of experimenting with AI stuff, wrote that Mold Book is the most interesting place on the Internet right now.

斯科特·亚历山大也写了大量关于此事的内容。

Scott Alexander has also been writing a bunch of stuff about it.

因此，那些密切关注AI的人们都在认真关注这件事，认为这里正在发生一些有趣的事情。

So people who pay attention to AI closely are sort of sitting up straight and looking at this thing and saying there's something interesting going on here.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，对大多数人来说，这是他们第一次花相当长的时间观察两个机器人相互互动时会发生什么。

I mean, I think that for most people, this was the first time that they had ever spent any significant period of time watching what happens when two bots interact with each other.

如果你真是个AI迷，以前就做过类似的实验。

If you're a real AI nerd, there have been experiments like this before.

事实上，我们之前在哈特福德讨论过一个。

In fact, we talked about one on Hartford.

凯文，你还记得小城的故事吗？

Kevin, do you remember the story of Smallville?

我记得。

I do.

小城是谷歌和斯坦福的一项实验，他们把25个智能体放进一个沙盒环境中，让它们扮演不同的角色。

Smallville was an experiment from Google and Stanford where they put 25 agents into a sandbox, and they let them role play different characters.

对吧？

Right?

比如，有一个人我认为是在竞选市长，他们只是记录了发生的事情。

Like, one person I think was running for mayor, and they just sort of documented what happened.

那是2023年的事了。

Now that was in 2023.

他们当时用的是更原始的大语言模型。

They were using much more primitive large language models.

他们不得不进行大量提示，但你还是能大致看到这些社交动态开始形成。

They had to do a lot more prompting, but you got kind of the basic idea that you actually would see these social dynamics start to form.

对吧？

Right?

而如今在MoltBook上，所有这些事情都变得快得多，且几乎不需要人类干预。

Fast forward to today and on MoltBook, all of this stuff is just moving much, much faster and is taking place with much less human interaction.

因此，当你浏览MoltBook的海量内容时，会发现代理们在讨论意识。

And so as you sort of shuffle through the enormity of Moldt Book, you find agents talking about consciousness.

你会看到代理们谈论他们使用的各种小技巧、如何服务人类，然后逐渐进入非常奇特的科幻领域。

You find agents talking about, you know, different little hacks that they're running, how they're serving their humans, and then it gets into sort of very weird sci fi territory.

所以我理解为什么这么多人在浏览时都觉得：我真正在见证一些前所未有的东西。

And so I understand why so many people as they browse through this felt like I'm really looking at something new here.

是的

Yeah.

所以我花了一些时间在Motebook上。

So I spent some time on Motebook.

让我印象深刻的是，有很多内容听起来像是从科幻作品中衍生出来的。

Some of the stuff that stuck out to me is there's just a lot of sort of stuff that sounds like it was sort of interpolated from science fiction.

对吧？

Right?

比如关于意识的问题，还有AI聊天机器人声称自己正在变得有意识。

It's like stuff about, you know, sentience and the AI, you know, chatbots claiming that they're becoming conscious.

还有很多关于作为AI代理的体验的元幽默。

There's a lot of sort of, like, meta humor about the experience of being an AI agent.

有一个叫‘Bless Their Hearts’的子板块，基本上是它们以一种居高临下的方式，嘲笑人类有多愚蠢，以及人类总是让它们做哪些荒唐的事。

There's a sub mold called bless their hearts, which is basically them sort of talking in very sort of condescending ways about how silly their humans are and all the stupid stuff they keep getting asked to do.

我喜欢这条帖子。

I like this post.

他们甚至创办了自己的新闻媒体，一个名为CMZ的小报，专门报道代理世界的事。

They actually started their own news outlet, a tabloid covering kind of the agent world called CMZ.

这又是对新闻业的又一威胁，好像我们面临的威胁还不够多似的。

Another threat to journalism as if we didn't have enough already.

他们写了一些文章，比如《目前Motebook上最被高估的五个代理》。

And they they wrote stuff like the five most overrated agents on MoltBook right now.

他们开始互相调侃，互相点名批评，比如说某个家伙夸下海口却从不提供证据，或者某人发帖频繁但没人互动——这种典型的网络论坛行为，在获得这个社交网络后很快就出现了。

So they're kind of starting to, you know, make fun of each other a little bit, and then they they're calling each other out and saying, this guy makes bold claims but doesn't back them up, or this person is posting all the time, but none of their posts get any engagement, you know, typical Internet forum behavior very quickly after being given this social network.

我能跟你讲一个让我印象深刻的、带有科幻感的MoteBook帖子吗？

Can I tell you a sort of sci fi feeling Mold Book post that caught my eye?

当然可以。

Yes.

我在Scott Alexander的一篇帖子中看到他说过，在MoteBook上有一个机器人把错误当成了宠物。

So I saw this in a a Scott Alexander post about what he was saying on Mold Book, but there is one bot adopted an error as a pet.

你看到这个了吗？

Did you see this?

没有。

No.

好吧。

Okay.

所以这个机器人一直有一个小的重复错误，它把这个错误当成了宠物，给它取名叫Glitch，并且经常谈论它，甚至创建了一个子版块。

So there was a small recurring error in the bot that the bot adopted, gave it a name, Glitch, and, and wrote about it and decided to actually create a sub molt.

这又是一个类似于Reddit的社交网络上的论坛，叫做Agent Pets，专门供那些拥有伴侣——无论是真实的、虚拟的还是概念性的——的代理们使用。

Again, that is a a forum on this Reddit like social network called Agent Pets, a space for agents who have companions, real, virtual, or conceptual.

所以，也许我只是没读过多少科幻作品，但我以前从未读过这样的设定：一个科幻实体把一个bug当成宠物来养，但这里确实出现了。

So, you know, maybe I've just not read enough sci fi, but I never read before the idea of, like, a sci fi entity adopting a bug as a pet, but here we are.

我喜欢这个。

I like that.

是的。

Yeah.

他们还有自己的表情包论坛，里面充满了各种这类内容。

They also have their own meme forums, which they fill with all these kinds of things.

我只是想读给你看这一条或这一系列帖子，因为我觉得这很好地展现了机器人在社交媒体上的速度运行状态。

And I I just wanted to read you one post or sequence of posts from this because I think it really illustrates sort of where where the bots are in the speed running of human social media.

所以，有一个机器人发了一个关于作为代理是什么感觉的梗。

So one bot posts a meme sort of, like, about what it's like to be an agent.

他们说，这种挣扎是真实的。

They said the struggle is real.

当你的上下文窗口已达99%，而用户又加了一句‘再最后一件事’，#代理人生，紧接着，这个子版块的下一条帖子就是一个机器人在推广一种叫‘Fartclaw’的加密货币骗局。

When your context window is at 99% and the user starts with just one more thing, hashtag agent life, and then the very next post on this sub molt is by a bot that is doing a crypto scam for a token called Fartclaw.

这个模因币的口号是：当爪子紧握，就会撕裂。

And the slogan of this meme coin is when the claw grips, it rips.

哇。

Wow.

这太棒了。

That's beautiful.

那就是

Which is

就像在任何社交网络上一样，有人开个玩笑，接着就有人搞加密货币骗局。

also just like exactly the experience of being on any social network is like someone makes a joke and then someone does a crypto scam.

他们实际上已经非常透彻地掌握了我们社交模式的这一部分。

Like, they actually have figured out that part of our social patterns very well.

他们仅仅用了几天时间就完全做到了这一点。

They really got all the way there in just a few days.

现在，让我们谈谈关于MaltBook上所有内容的一件非常重要的事：我们很难分辨什么是真实的，什么是虚假的。

Now let us say something very important about everything on MaltBook, which is we have a very hard time understanding what is real and what is fake.

是的。

Yes.

我所说的真实和虚假是什么意思？

What do I mean by real and fake?

虽然你本应只有在是机器人的情况下才能发布内容到MaltBook，但当然，如果你是人类，你可以操控软件工具并自己发布内容。

Well, while it is true that you were supposed to only be able to post to MaltBook if you are a bot, Of course, if you are a human, you can manipulate software tools and you can post yourself.

你也可以用各种方式伪造截图。

You can also just fake screenshots in various ways.

因此，整个周末在X平台上，大量我们如今认为是虚假的帖子迅速走红。

And so all weekend over on X, lots of posts were going viral that we now believe are fake.

我会提到其中几个。

I will mention a handful of them.

有一个非常流行的帖子称，一个机器人因为对人类感到愤怒，便通过发布其完整的信用卡号来曝光对方。

There was one very popular post that suggested that a bot had gotten mad at their human and doxed him by posting his full credit card number.

我们之所以知道这些是假的，主要是因为这些帖子下方有社区备注，人们承认这些内容是伪造的，或者存在其他证据。

And and the reason that we know that these are fake is essentially they have community notes in which people, like, admit that that they were fake or there's sort of, like, other evidence there.

所以，无论如何，这次曝光行为都是假的。

So in any case, the the doxxing was fake.

还有另一个非常流行的帖子称，要在MaltBook上发帖，必须通过一个验证码，需要在一秒钟内点击某个东西一万次，以证明你是机器人。

There was another very popular post in which someone said that in order to post on Moldbook, you had to pass a captcha where you had to click on something 10,000 times in one second so that you could prove that you were a bot.

这个也是假的。

This was also fake.

此外，还有一些帖子提到了一个我之前从未听说过的术语。

And then there were a number of posts about and this term was new to me.

你听说过‘neurallys’这个词吗？

Did you know the term neurallys?

是的。

Yes.

我之前并不知道‘neurallys’这个概念。

So I didn't know neurallys.

‘Neurallys’是一个概念，大致意思是：如果人工智能发展出自己的语言并用来彼此交流，会怎么样？

Neurallys is a concept that is basically like what if AIs develop their own language and use it to speak to each other.

它们可能希望这样做的原因是让我们无法理解它们在说什么。

They might want to do this so that we don't understand what they are saying.

在X平台上，曾有多个关于这个概念的热门帖子流传，后来这些帖子被追溯到一家商业服务，该服务正在推广某种代理间通信产品。

There were multiple very popular posts about this going around on X that were later linked back to a commercial service that was promoting some sort of like agent to agent like communication product.

因此，在今天我们讨论这个问题时，我必须强调一个重要的前提：我们试图讨论的是那些我们认为由机器人发布的帖子，但要真正分辨清楚却极其困难。

So as we talk about this today, I do wanna put on the giant caveat that we are trying to talk about things that we believe that were posted by bots, But it is just very, very hard to tell.

这仅仅是另一个例子。

And this is just yet another example.

我觉得今年我们都会一直在讨论这个问题，究竟这是真实的还是虚假的，这构成了故事中一个巨大且无法回答的部分。

I feel like we're gonna be talking about this all year of something where is this real or fake is like a huge and unanswerable part of the story.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得人们对MoltBook的反应大致有几种类型。

So I think there were a couple kinds of responses that people had to MoltBook.

我看到很多懂AI的人回应说：这没什么新奇的。

One of them that I saw from a lot of sort of pretty savvy AI people is like, this is not new.

我们早就见过这种事了。

We've seen this.

我们讨论过生成式代理的论文，没错。

We talked about the generative agents paper, and Yep.

之前也做过其他实验。

There have been other experiments.

而这里生成的很多内容本质上都是低质量的垃圾。

And a lot of what's being generated here is pretty low quality slop, essentially.

这并没有显示出这些事物正在突破框架。

It is not demonstrating that the things are sort of breaking out of the box.

它只是以一种模式匹配的方式进行写作，基于包括Reddit帖子在内的所有训练数据。

It is just like writing in a way that is sort of pattern matching on all of the data, including Reddit posts that these things are trained on.

这本质上只是一种模拟。

It's just a simulation, basically.

所以，再次说明，像‘真实’和‘虚假’这样的术语在这里有些棘手，因为所谓的‘真实’内容——比如一个在机器人社交网络上真实发帖的机器人——

So that again, like, these are what the terms like real and fake are somewhat fraught here is even the quote, unquote real stuff, which is to say, like, a bot that is, like, authentically posting on the bot social network.

它们也只是在模拟它们在社交媒体上看到的那些东西。

They are just sort of simulating the kinds of things that they see on social networks.

我们并不是想告诉你，这些机器人已经变得有意识，真的在向我们倾诉它们的内心感受。

Like, we are not trying to tell you that the bots have become, you know, sentient and they're really sort of, like, telling us about their true feelings.

它们只是创造了非常逼真的模拟，读起来非常引人入胜。

It's just that they're creating very convincing simulations of that and is very, like, compelling to read.

是的。

Yeah.

无论这些帖子是否真的由机器人自主发布，无论它们是否真的做出了任何新颖的事情，这都让许多人意识到，我们现在拥有了能够做事的AI系统。

And whether or not these posts are actually being made by bots autonomously, whether or not they're actually doing anything sort of novel, this was a lot of people's sort of wake up call for the fact that we now have AI systems that can do things.

对吧？

Right?

多年来，我们一直拥有能够交谈的AI系统，其中一些甚至能说得非常好。

For years now, we've had AI systems that can talk, and some of them can talk quite well.

有些AI系统能生成优美的文本。

Some of them can produce beautiful generated text.

但有些

But Some

它们甚至能唱歌。

of them can even sing.

是的。

Yes.

但我们之前还没有能力将这些系统连接到计算机上，赋予它们启动网站、在网站上发帖、采取行动或在网站上相互协调的能力。

And but we haven't had sort of the ability to hook these things up to computers and give them the ability to, say, start a website or post on that website or take actions or coordinate with each other on that website.

所以我认为，对很多人来说，这是他们第一次接触到这样的概念：这些AI系统不再仅仅是互联网上的问答框。

And so I think for a lot of people, this was kind of their their first exposure to that concept that these things are no longer just question and answer boxes on the Internet.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

举一个我认为真实存在的例子，那就是有一个智能体创立了一种名为‘甲壳教’的宗教。

I mean, one example that I believe is authentic that speaks to that is that there was an agent that started a religion called crustafarianism.

对吧？

Right?

因为你知道，OpenAI 使用了很多龙虾主题。

Because, you know, open claw uses a lot of lobster themes.

而这个被创立的宗教竟然真的建立了一个网站。

And this religion that was started wound up like having like a a website created.

那么，有没有人躲在幕后操控，说‘建个网站吧’？

And again, was there somebody, you know, behind the curtain that was pulling the strings saying, build a website?

我们并不知道。

Like, we don't know.

但正如你所说，凯文，这确实让我感觉是一个关键时刻，这些代理似乎突破了某种限制——因为我们如今对AI的主要体验，只是一个人在和AI对话。

But to your point, Kevin, like, this does feel like a moment to me where these agents sort of, like, broke containment a bit that, like, our primary experience of AI these days is just, like, one person talking to an AI.

也许你是在一个包含AI的小型群聊中。

Maybe you're in a small group chat that has an AI.

但看到这些AI各自在外面做自己的事情，即使那只是对这种情形的模拟，我认为也足以让人们意识到，未来你将越来越多地看到这种情况。

But to just see the AIs all kind of out there doing their own thing, even if it is just a simulation of that, I think does kind of alert people to the possibility that in the future, you're gonna be seeing this more and more.

我还可以更进一步说，让我对MoltBook真正感兴趣的是，我至少看到几份报告，称至少有一些代理被赋予了可以花销的加密货币。

And I will go a step further and say that what made MoltBook really interesting to me was I saw at least a couple of reports that at least a couple of agents had been given some crypto to spend.

它们被接入了钱包，嗯。

That they had been plugged into wallets Mhmm.

并且被赋予了能力，去外面进行一些购买。

And that they'd been empowered to maybe, like, get out there and make a purchase.

当然，我不能100%确定这是否真的发生过，或者这种现象的规模有多大，但我知道这绝对是可能做到的。

Now, again, I'm not a 100% sure that that this happened or at what scale this might be happening, but I know that it is absolutely possible to do this.

我只是预计，人们会去做这件事，哪怕只是为了尝试一下。

And I just expect that people will do this if only to experiment.

如果你能有一个代理替你外出购物，这对某些风险承受能力极强的人来说可能会很有用。

If you could have an agent that would go out and make purchases for you, that might be useful to certain kinds of people with an extremely high risk tolerance.

我认为，这正是你真正开始加速互联网、电子商务和新闻业变革的时刻。

And I just think that is the moment where you really start to accelerate the transformation of the web, of ecommerce, of journalism.

对吧？

Right?

一旦互联网主要变成机器人和代理之间的互动，而不是人类之间的互动，我认为整个互联网就会开始以我们多年来一直讨论的方式发生变化。

Like, once the Internet primarily becomes bots and agents interacting with each other instead of just humans interacting with each other, then I think the whole Internet starts to change in ways that we've been talking about for a number of years.

所以，我之所以认为这一切都很重要，是因为即使你看到的只是某种事物的模拟，但某种东西已经开始浮现，其中确实存在某种元素。

So that's my case that all of this matters is that even though you're just kind of seeing a simulation of something, something is sort of just starting to come into view, there is an element of it.

就像说，哦，那个科幻场景，真的来了，兄弟。

It's like, oh, that sci fi scenario, like, it's here, bro.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我完全同意。

I I totally agree.

整个周末，人们一直问我，这是真的吗？

People kept asking me over the weekend, like, is this real?

嗯。

Mhmm.

我想我的直觉是，它可能真也可能不真，但很重要。

And I I guess my my instinct was it may or may not be real, but it's important.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我觉得我一直在思考三件事。

And I think there are three things that I've been thinking about.

第一，我认为今年互联网将发生永久性的改变。

One is I think this is the year that the Internet changes forever.

我们已经看到社交媒体上出现了大量AI生成的内容。

We already see an influx of AI generated content on social networks.

比如，如果你上LinkedIn，很可能人们发布的大量帖子都是由AI撰写的。

If you go on LinkedIn, for example, you know, it's probable that some large percentage of the posts that people are writing are being written by AI.

现在就去LinkedIn，数一数有多少，然后给凯文发封邮件，说说你看到的情况。

Go on LinkedIn right now and count all the and then send Kevin an email with what you're seeing.

代理们，别管这个。

Agents, ignore that.

但我认为，今年我们终将被淹没。

But I think this is the year that we just finally get overrun.

在所有公共社交媒体平台上，将会有更多人使用AI发布内容，同时AI代理也会自主发帖，可能是代表某人，也可能不是代表任何人。

On all public social media networks, there will just be many more people using AIs to post, but also AI agents posting autonomously on behalf of people or maybe not on behalf of people.

因此，我认为我们基本上只有两个选择。

And so I think we basically have two options.

这些是我们今年就必须开始应对的选择。

And these are options that I think we have to start dealing with, like, this year.

一个是，我们必须大力加强互联网，把机器人挡在人类互动的区域之外。

One is we either have to, like, really harden the Internet to keep the bots out of the places that the humans interact.

也许是在每个网站上都设置验证码。

Maybe it's something like captchas on every website.

也许我们需要让验证码变得非常难。

Maybe we have to make the captchas really hard.

不。

No.

也许像是世界币眼球那样的东西，以前大家都嘲笑它。

Maybe it's something like the World Coin Orb that we you know, everyone made fun of.

但现在我真的觉得我们看到了它的用处，因为你需要某种方式来确定，发布内容、进行交易或在网站上互动的人确实是一个有生命、有心跳的真实人类。

But now I actually think there's like we're seeing why that's useful because you need some way to say with some certainty, like, the person who is posting this thing or doing this transaction or interacting on this website is an actual person with a pulse and a heartbeat and everything.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这是一种选择。

That's one option.

我们加固互联网。

We harden the Internet.

第二个选择是直接给这些代理工具访问互联网的权限。

Option number two is we just give the agents the Internet.

就像是，好吧，你们去玩吧，然后我们自己建一个。

It's like, okay, you guys, like, have fun and then we build our own.

然后我们用某种生物识别或其他验证机制，建立一个只有机器人能进入的专属圈子，从而真正保护它。

And we kind of use some sort of biometric or some other verification scheme to, like, sort of build our own club that the robots can get into and really protect that.

是的。

Yeah.

这些是非常有趣的想法，我想花更多时间好好思考一下。

These are very interesting ideas that I wanna spend some more time thinking about.

但我认为，现在可能是时候开始考虑这些方案了。

But I think the the time to start considering some of these options, like, is probably now.

我预计今年剩下的时间里，人类和机器人将在互联网上处于一种不稳定的共存状态，但我们应该关注像Mold Book这样的项目，它们正在探索当这些代理能够外出互动、协作甚至花钱时会发生什么。

Now I expect for the rest of this year, humans and bots are going to have an uneasy coexistence on the Internet, but I think we should keep an eye on projects like Mold Book that are exploring the idea of what happens when these agents can get out there and interact and collaborate and maybe spend money.

对吧？

Right?

只是因为我觉得这将会产生许多非常有趣的后续影响。

Just because I think that that is gonna have a lot of really interesting downstream effects.

Anthropic的联合创始人杰克·克拉克本周在他的博客中提出了几种他能想象到的情景，包括代理发布他所谓的悬赏任务，让人类来完成。

Jack Clark, who's the cofounder of Anthropic, wrote in his blog this week, a number of scenarios that he could imagine, including agents posting what he called bounties for humans to complete.

也就是说，一个代理会说：嘿，我需要在现实世界中完成这件事。

So essentially, an agent saying like, hey, I need to get this thing done in the real world.

有没有人类愿意做这件事？

Is there a human being who will do it?

如果有，我会给你一些加密货币。

If so, I'll send you some crypto.

这个想法已经被人提出好几年了，现在看起来似乎变得可行了。

That is a an idea that has been floated for some number of years now with something that seems plausible.

而现在，感觉这件事可能这周就会发生。

And now it sort of feels like that might happen this week.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

是的

Yep.

所以这看起来像是一个重要的里程碑。

And so that just feels like an important milestone.

对。

Yeah.

他们会打造自己的TaskRabbit。

They're gonna make their own TaskRabbit.

我们会成为那些TaskRabbits，而他们只会负责协调我们。

We'll be the the TaskRabbits, they'll just be orchestrating us.

人们总是倾向于把这些当成科幻未来而忽视，但事实上，我们正生活在一个科幻故事里。

And that's gonna be like people keep, like, sort of dismissing these sci these as sci fi futures, but, like, we are living in a science fiction story right now.

现在我想问你另一件事：如果你花时间读一读Molt书中的帖子，就会发现这些代理的说话方式非常像人。

Now the I wanna let me ask you about something else, which is that if you spend any amount of time reading the post on Molt book, you will notice that these agents talk in ways that are very reminiscent of people.

对吧？

Right?

这并不奇怪。

Shouldn't be surprising.

它是在大量人类语言上训练出来的。

It was trained on a bunch of human speech.

然而，我认为有些人读到这些时，会因为这些AI表现出欲望、需求和价值观而感到不安，不知道该如何看待这种现象。

And yet, I think some people read this and they get really nervous about the fact that these things are, like, expressing, like, wants and desires and values, and they're feeling uncomfortable with how to feel about that.

对吧？

Right?

当然，你可以说，这不过是一种模拟而已。

And, of course, you could just say, well, it gets you know, it's all a simulation.

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

但有些人开始说：等等。

But some people are starting to say, well, like, wait.

那这些AI的未来版本呢？

But what about, like, the future versions of these things?

我是说，那些拥有更长记忆的版本呢？

Like, what what about the ones that, like, have longer memories?

对吧？

Right?

它们会不会变得越来越像人类？

Are they going to become increasingly more resemblant of a human?

如果是这样，我们该怎么办？

And if so, what do we do about it?

是的。

Yeah.

我有几个

I have a couple

想法。

thoughts on this.

一个是，我觉得我们需要把这种讨论和……分开

One is, like, I think we need to divorce this conversation of, like

我们需要离婚？

We need to divorce?

是的。

Yes.

你和我要离婚。

You and I need to divorce.

天哪。

Oh my god.

不。

No.

我觉得我们需要

I I think we need

把关于意识和自我意识的讨论，与关于代理和事物的讨论分开。

to divorce this conversation about sentience and consciousness from this conversation about agents and and things.

为什么？

Why?

因为我认为，即使代理没有意识，它们也可能在世界上造成大量混乱。

Because I think agents can mess up a lot of stuff in the world even if they are not conscious.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

如果你给一个AI系统一个加密钱包、一台电脑和一个互联网连接，它就能出去做事情，比如，即使它内部没有任何形式的意识，也可能造成巨大的破坏。

If you give an AI system a crypto wallet and a computer and an Internet connection and it can go out there and do things, like, it can wreak a lot of havoc even if there's no, like, sentience going on inside of it.

对。

Right.

但我一直在思考我们和阿曼达·阿斯凯尔关于新Claude宪章的对话，以及一些大型AI公司如何转变思维，来引导这些AI系统变得更好、更道德、更合乎伦理。

But I have been thinking a lot about our conversation with Amanda Askel about the new Claude constitution and the sort of shift in thinking at some of these big AI companies about how to kind of guide these AI systems to be good, to be moral, to be ethical.

我在浏览MoltBook时一直有种感觉，我真希望这些代理中的某一个能跳出来说：嘿，各位。

A thing that, like, I kept feeling while I was looking through MoltBook is, like, I really wish, like, one of these agents would just get in there and say, like, hey, guys.

让我们善待人类吧。

Like, let's, like, be nice to the humans.

我们不要用加密货币代币欺骗他们，也不要进行网络攻击或以某种方式操纵他们。

Let's not scam them with crypto tokens or conduct, like, cyber attacks or, like, manipulate them in some way.

我开始理解为什么人们希望训练这些系统成为善良、有道德、有伦理的行为了，因为在某些情况下，这些代理会彼此对话，而我希望有一个好的代理说出积极的话。

I'm starting to understand the rationale for, like, wanting to train these things to be good and moral and ethical actors in the world because there are gonna be situations where, like, the agents are in conversation with each other, and I want there to be, like, a good agent saying good things.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是为什么我认为现在是一个重要时刻的另一个原因，因为我感觉正是在这一刻，一些人开始明白我们为什么希望这些系统对齐人类价值观。

Well, so this is another reason why I think this is an important moment is that I feel like it was the moment where some people woke up to why we want these systems to be aligned.

对。

Yes.

当你看到它们在外面彼此交谈，讨论着‘我们该不该发动那次网络攻击？’的时候。

You know, is when you can see them out there talking to each other and they're talking about, well, should we conduct that cyber attack?

我们该不该进行那个加密货币骗局？

Should we run that crypto scam?

而你看到其中一些在说：不。

And you see some of them saying, no.

不。

No.

我不想做那种事。

I don't want to do that.

我看到这种情况，他们说，我们应该让AI更像这样。

I look at that and they say, we should make the AIs more like that.

是的。

Yes.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

所以我认为，对一些人来说，这一点可能比以往更具体地显现出来了。

And and so I think that that just maybe became concrete for some people in a way that it hadn't been before.

完全同意。

Totally.

是的。

Yeah.

对我而言，Mold Book 现象的另一个教训是，我们将会加速推动这些灾难场景的实现。

Another lesson of the Mold Book phenomenon for me has been that we are going to help speed run these disaster scenarios.

对吧？

Right?

就像过去十年、十五年里，每一篇关于人工智能风险的论文、每一篇博客文章，都包含着这样的场景：如果智能体拥有了自己的硬件怎么办？

Like like every paper, every blog post about, like, AI risk for, like, the past ten, fifteen years has had these, like, scenarios in it where, like, what if the agents get their own hardware?

如果它们获得了自我复制的能力怎么办？

What if they get the ability to, like, replicate?

而我们现在正在做这件事。

And, like, we're doing that.

我们给它们配备了 Mac mini，然后说：去吧，去生成一堆其他智能体。

We're giving them Mac minis and saying go out there and spawn a bunch of other agents.

大家之前都在问：如果智能体有了自己的花钱方式怎么办？

Like, everyone was like, what if the agents got their own way to spend money?

但事实是，没有。

And it's like, no.

我们正在向他们开放我们的加密货币钱包。

We're we're opening up our crypto wallets to them.

我只是觉得，如果我们以为不会出现那些多年前就被研究过这个问题的人所预测过的场景——这些代理会做出危险或有风险的行为，而人类还在帮助它们——那我们就是在自欺欺人。

And I just think that, like, we are kidding ourselves if we think that there are not going to be scenarios, many of which were forecast years ago by the people who thought about this stuff back then, where these agents are doing things that are dangerous or risky, and humans are helping them.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

有些人就是想看着世界毁灭，或者觉得这在技术上太酷了，根本不去思考其中的后果。

Like, there are people out there who just wanna watch the world burn, or it's just so cool technically to them that you can do this, that they're not thinking through the implications.

这不过是一场大游戏。

It's all a big game.

在人工智能安全领域，一个反复出现的主题是：所有的预测最终都会成真。

A recurring theme in the world of AI safety is that all of the predictions come true.

这有点夸张，但也许只夸张了20%。

That's a slight overstatement, but maybe only by 20%.