OpenAI的战争迷雾 + 押注伊朗 + Hard Fork对Slop的评测

我当时正和编辑开会，她对我说：‘德博拉，你的脸怎么这么白？’

I was in a meeting with my editor, and she said, Deborah, why is your face so white?

我就如实告诉了她。

And I just told her the truth.

我说：‘你知道吗，这个报道真的很难。’

I said, you know, this story is really hard.

她看着我说：‘这正是我们该做的。’

And she looked at me and said, that's what we do.

我一直在想这句话。

I think about that all the time.

在《纽约时报》，我从未遇到过任何人对我说：‘这太有野心了’或‘这个故事太难了’。

At The New York Times, I have never encountered someone who said to me, that's too ambitious or that story is too hard.

恰恰相反。

It's the contrary.

他们总是告诉我：‘你要挖得更深一些。’

I am told you need to dig deeper.

你需要持续深入，直到我们确保掌握了每一个事实、每一个层面，来讲述那些因难度大而无人敢讲的故事。

You need to keep going until we make sure we have every single fact, every single layer to tell the stories that would not be told because they are hard.

这正是《纽约时报》的特别之处。

And that's what's special about The New York Times.

它让我们的读者不仅能了解发生了什么，更能理解为什么会发生。

It allows our readers to understand not just what's happening, but why it's happening.

如果你是订户，你很可能已经体验过这种深刻理解的感觉。

If you're a subscriber, you probably have experienced that sense of understanding.

感谢你支持这项工作。

And thank you for supporting this work.

如果你还不是订户，可以前往 nytimes.com/subscribe 订阅。

If you're not, you can subscribe at nytimes.com/subscribe.

好的，凯西。

Okay, Casey.

过去一周的另一条重大新闻是，美国现在已与伊朗进入战争状态。

So the other big news from the past week is that The United States is now at war in Iran.

而让我特别关注的一个角度是预测市场在这场冲突中所扮演的角色，因为我认为这确实是以前从未见过的现象。

And one angle that really has been sticking out to me about this is the role that prediction markets are playing in this conflict because I think that is something that we truly have not seen before.

是的。

Yeah.

似乎每一场新战争都会带来某种令人不安的新技术，而我认为预测市场可能是这场伊朗冲突中最令人不安的第一项技术。

It seems like every new war brings along some grim new technology, and I would say that prediction markets are maybe grim technology number one for this conflict in Iran.

对。

Yes.

即使没有战争，预测市场本身就已经是一种令人不安的技术，而现在有了战争，它变得更加阴暗了。

It's a grim technology already even absent the war, and now just with the war, it has become even grimmer.

我们在这档节目中讨论过预测市场。

And we've talked about prediction markets on the show.

我们早在2023年就讨论过它们，当时它们还是一种新兴事物，处于某种法律灰色地带，尚未大规模开展。

We talked about them way back in 2023 when they were sort of this new thing that was, like, kind of in this legal gray area that wasn't really being done at any scale yet.

那只是一个有趣的想法。

It was sort of an interesting idea.

如今，在美国任何一个主要城市，你走在街上都不可能看不到一个甚至多个关于预测市场的广告，比如Polymarket。

Now, of course, you cannot walk down a street in a major American city without seeing one and probably multiple ads for prediction markets like and Polymarket.

是的。

Yeah.

这种席卷所有媒体和广告的赌博狂热，从DraftKings到FanDuel，现在已经进一步蔓延到了这些预测市场。

This sort of gambling mania that has taken over all media and advertising, you know, from DraftKings to FanDuel has now extended even further into these prediction markets.

所以，Polymarket和Kalshi这两家领先的预测市场平台都采取了

So both Polymarket and Kalshi, the two leading prediction markets platforms, took a

本周，他们允许用户就与伊朗相关的问题下注，引发了大量争议。

lot of heat this week on bets they were allowing their users to make on questions related to Iran.

因此，Kalshi这家在美国受到更多监管的预测市场公司，不允许对战争或暗杀下注，但它确实允许用户就‘阿里·哈梅内伊是否卸任最高领袖’这个问题下注，这基本上算是一种

So Kalshi, which is kind of the more regulated US based prediction markets company, does not allow bets on war or assassination, but it did allow the question Ali Khamenei out as supreme leader, basically, sort of as a

变相的

kind of

对战争结果或打击伊朗下注的谨慎替代方式。

careful proxy for betting on the outcome of a war or a strike on Iran.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，我想，他可能已经进行了多次会面。

And out, I suppose, could have, you know, many meetings.

你知道的？

You know?

也许伊朗会经历一场温和的民主革命。

Perhaps there would be a sort of gentle democratic revolution in Iran.

但我假设，大多数下注的人认为他将会

But I'm going to assume that most of the people who were wagering on that one assumed that he was going to

在战争中被杀。

be killed in war.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，人们对于Kalshi允许这些关于伊朗领导人命运的投注感到非常愤怒。

So people got really mad at Khalshi for allowing these bets on the fate of the Iranian leader.

当Khalshi取消了这个市场并表示将赔偿任何可能因此亏损的人，确保每个人都不会亏钱时，人们也感到非常愤怒。

They also got mad when Khalshi sort of voided this market and said that it was going to reimburse anyone who may have lost money on this, basically make sure everyone ends up in the black.

但那些原本因为准确预测了哈梅内伊的死亡而预期大赚一笔的人，却因没有拿到预期的赢利而愤怒不已。

But people who were supposed to make a bunch of money because they correctly predicted the death of Khamenei were mad that they didn't get paid out their expected winnings.

所以整个事情一团糟。

So just a big cluster all around.

我只是想说，

And I just wanna

如果说

say, if

如果你是那位没有从阿亚图拉之死中拿到预期赢利的交易员，我只是想说，我根本不关心，这根本不重要。

you were one of the traders who did not get your expected winnings from the death of the Ayatollah, I just wanna say, I don't care, and it doesn't matter.

所以，Polymarket这个其他不太受监管的离岸加密预测市场更加宽松。

So Polymarket, the other sort of less regulated offshore crypto based prediction market was even more permissive.

他们允许人们下注伊朗遭受袭击的具体日期以及其他与伊朗战争相关的细节。

They allowed people to bet on the dates of strikes on Iran and other details related to the war in Iran.

他们的政策简直就是：想象一下你在我们平台上能做的最糟糕的事。

Their policy was really like, imagine the worst thing you could do on our platform.

你尽管做。

You can do that.

实际上，当涉及到允许用户押注特定日期发生核爆炸可能性的市场时，他们还是划了一条线。

Actually, they did draw a line when it came down to markets that allowed users to bet on the likelihood of nuclear detonations by specific dates.

抱歉给那些想从核战争中获利的人了。

So sorry to anyone who is trying to cash in on nuclear war.

这些醒着的自由派不让我押注核爆炸，他们该滚了，凯文。

These woke liberals that won't let me bet on nuclear explosions need to go, Kevin.

好吧。

Okay.

所以没人对这件事感到满意。

So no one was happy about this.

参议员克里斯·墨菲发帖说：‘这居然合法，真是疯了。’

Senator Chris Murphy posted that, quote, it's insane this is legal.

特朗普身边的人正在从战争和死亡中获利，同时却声称他正在推动立法禁止这种行为。

People around Trump are profiting off war and death and also said that he was introducing legislation to ban this.

还有许多人正在调查，这些行为是否涉及内幕交易。

And there are also a bunch of people looking into whether any of this has been done via insider trading.

简而言之，你是否看到军队人员或与冲突决策者关系密切的人，在掌握了有关局势的非公开信息后，下注预测未来走向？

Basically, do you have people in the military or close to the decision makers in this conflict placing bets once they have this sort of nonpublic information about what is going to be happening?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这正说明了为何允许预测市场对战争和死亡这类事件下注是如此腐蚀且有害，凯文——这不仅因为这种行为本身令人毛骨悚然，让人难以想象我们竟生活在一个将战争与死亡的赌博当作娱乐的社会里，更因为它创造了激励世界最恶劣事件发生的动机，这在我看来完全不合逻辑。

And and I think it speaks to why allowing prediction markets to take bets at least around sort of, like, you know, war and death is so corrosive and bad, Kevin, because not only is it just kind of like grim and, like, how do we live in this society where, you know, gambling on war and death has become a sort of form of entertainment, but also you're just creating incentives for, like, the worst things in the world to happen, which doesn't seem logical to me.

而且，这里所涉及的并不仅仅是理论上的危害。

Well, and it's not even a theoretical harm here.

最近，以色列逮捕了数名被指控利用机密信息在Poly Markets上对军事行动下注的人。

Recently, Israel arrested a number of people who were accused of using classified information to bet on military operations on poly markets.

因此，这种事情已经实际发生了，我认为这正是像参议员克里斯·墨菲这样的人对此如此担忧的原因。

So this is already starting to happen, and I think this is why people like senator Chris Murphy are so alarmed about this.

不仅仅是因为人们赌战争这种行为显得肮脏且令人反感。

Not just because it's sort of, like, gross and aesthetically offensive to have people betting on wars.

尽管确实如此。

Although it is.

但确实如此。

But yeah.

尽管确实如此。

Although it is.

但更重要的是，如果你是一名军人，而你的指挥官命令你去对伊朗的一个设施实施空袭，你可能会登录手机，打开某个预测市场平台，心想：

But also because it could create direct incentives if you're a member of the military and your commander gives you an order to go do an airstrike on an Iranian compound to log on to your phone and head over to one of the prediction markets platforms and say, you know what?

我可以靠这个赚上几千块。

I could make a couple grand off this.

是的。

Yeah.

这可是你的小额外奖金。

That's your little call sheet bonus.

你知道，凯文，这完全不是理论上的事情。

You know, this is not theoretical at all, Kevin.

事实上，你在《纽约时报》的同事艾米·范写道，很少有人会下重注赌美国在接下来24小时内会发动袭击。

In fact, your colleague, Amy Fan, at the Times wrote that it is relatively uncommon for someone to bet a significant sum of money that a US strike will happen within the next day.

但上周五，超过150个账户准确预测了周六美国将对伊朗发动空袭，并下注了数百笔至少一千美元的赌注。

But last Friday, more than a 150 accounts placed hundreds of bets of at least a thousand dollars correctly predicting that there would be an American airstrike on Iran by Saturday.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我认为这里有趣的一点是，我并不是完全反对预测市场。

So I think one of the interesting things here is, like, I I am not, like, a a blanket opponent of prediction markets.

对吧？

Right?

我某种程度上认同一些理论观点，认为预测市场之所以可能优于民调，是因为它能激励人们去收集真正高质量的民意数据，并以此进行交易，从而获得对某次选举更准确的判断。

I I sort of bought some of the kind of theoretical arguments for why something like a prediction market could, for example, outperform political polls because it would incentivize people to, like, come up with really good polling data and, like, use that to trade on, and you could end up with kind of a better picture of a given election.

或者人们会因为钱在赌注上而说出真实想法，而不是仅仅为了给调查员留下好印象。

Or people will, like, say what they really think because their money is at stake, and they're not just trying to, like, impress a pollster.

是的。

Yes.

而且，你确实见过一些负责这些预测市场的人谈到，内幕交易其实可能是有益的，因为它能将最佳信息最快地传递到市场，让人们获得对内部人士真实想法的无过滤理解。

And you've actually had some of the people who are in charge of these prediction markets sort of talking about the fact that insider trading can be good because it can get the best information to the markets as quickly as possible and kind of, like, give people an unfiltered understanding of what the real insiders are thinking.

当然，官方上你本不应该能在这些平台上进行内幕交易。

Now, of course, officially, you are not supposed to be able to insider trade on these platforms.

对吧？

Right?

它们都有明确的政策禁止这种行为。

The the they all have policies against it.

Kalshi表示，他们曾调查过一些人，根据其主要监管机构CFTC的规定，利用内部信息下注实际上是非法的。

Kalshi says, you know, they've investigated people that it is actually illegal per the CFTC, which is their main regulator to place bets using inside information.

但这件事存在几个问题。

But there are a couple problems with this.

其中一个问题是，CFTC是个规模很小的机构。

One is the CFTC is a tiny agency.

它并没有一支庞大的执法团队去调查我推测的每天在平台上发生的数百甚至数千笔利用内部信息的交易。

It doesn't have a huge team of enforcers going out to investigate what I assume must be hundreds or thousands of trades using inside information on their platform every day.

而且，什么是公开信息、什么是私人信息，也不太清楚。

It's also not clear what is public information and what is private information.

你知道，在股票市场中，有些信息被视为重大非公开信息，利用这些信息交易是非法的。

You know, there are certain types of information in the stock market that are considered material nonpublic information that it is illegal to trade on.

但合法的做法也包括，比如，驾驶无人机飞越石油设施以观察其生产情况，或停在商店外观察进出的人流，从而估算其销售表现如何。

But it is also legal to, you know, fly a drone over an oil facility to see how their production is going or to park outside a store and see the foot traffic going in and out and use that to sort of calculate how well their sales must be going.

我对你对内幕交易规则的了解程度感到可疑。

I find it suspicious how much you know about the insider trading rules.

我得说，我没想到你对法律这么熟悉。

I have to say, I didn't know you had this much facility with the law here.

我要给我律师打电话。

I'm calling my lawyer.

但当然，这正是预测市场吸引人的部分——它们激励拥有良好信息的人去利用这些信息进行交易。

But, of course, this is part of the appeal prediction markets in general is that they incentivize people with good information to trade on that information.

是的。

Yes.

如果你允许人们对几乎任何事情下注，你如何可能真正监管整个平台，以弄清楚谁在进行内幕交易、谁没有？

And if you allow people to wager on almost anything, how are you ever possibly going to police the entire platform to understand who is insider trading and who isn't?

是的。

Yes.

所以我认为，在战争这个特定情况下，由于我们讨论过的某些原因，这是非常危险的。

So I think in this specific case of war, I think it's very dangerous for some of the reasons that we've talked about.

不仅有些军官和服务人员会泄露机密信息，以为自己赚取一点额外收入。

Not only do you have military officers and and and service people disclosing classified information in some cases to to sort of make a little extra for themselves.

但你还会看到一种极其奇怪的战争投机创新——你可以直接登录这些平台，试图从涉及大量破坏和毁灭的事件中赚取大量金钱。

But you also have just this incredibly strange war profiteering innovation where, like, you can just go on one of these platforms and try to make a bunch of money from something that involves a lot of devastation and destruction.

你知道，另一个让我想到的事情是，凯文，正如你所说，预测市场的支持者认为，这仅仅有助于我们更好地理解世界。

You know, the other thing that comes to mind for me, Kevin, is that, you know, as you say, the the prediction market backers, their argument is, like, this just helps us understand the world better.

对吧？

Right?

这是一种新型的信息，能帮助我们更清晰地看待世界。

This is a new kind of information that helps us see more clearly.

然而，当我审视你刚才描述的所有交易时，我实在不明白我本该更清楚地看到什么。

And yet as I look across all of the trades that you just described, I don't understand really what I was supposed to see more clearly.

对吧？

Right?

比如，你可能提前得到一些关于即将发生的可怕事件的提示。

Like, maybe you get a, you know, a brief heads up about something horrible that is about to happen.

也许在某些情况下，这确实有用。

Maybe that's, you know, useful in at least some circumstances.

但大多数情况下，我并不觉得因为这些投注的出现，我们对世界的理解就真的变得更好了。

But for the most part, I just don't feel like we actually have a much better understanding of the world because all of these bets are happening.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我认为在这个特定情况下尤其如此，因为如果你真的查看伊朗袭击发生前的交易市场，大众的普遍看法是这件事根本不会发生。

And I think in this specific case, that's especially true because if you actually look at the markets that were being traded before this strike on Iran, the conventional wisdom of the crowd was that this was not going to happen.

这概率非常低。

It was a very low probability.

我认为在袭击发生前一小时，某个平台上这种事件的概率只有17%左右。

I think something like 17% probability on one of these platforms an hour before the strikes.

所以这些市场根本不是在任何时候都提供最佳信息。

So these markets aren't actually distributing the best possible information at all times.

它们只是在聚集各种感觉，直到有内部信息的人出现，然后赚一大笔钱。

They're just kind of like aggregating vibes until, like, someone with inside information shows up and, like, makes a fortune.

嗯，我认为这正是关键。

Well, I think that's exactly it.

这并不是说这些市场已经被主流采纳，人人都在随意下注，从而获得了对世界完美而清晰的理解。

It isn't as if these have been adopted by the mainstream and everybody's placing these sort of casual bets and now we have this, like, beautiful, perfect understanding of the world.

正如你所说，我们拥有的只是一堆感觉加上一些内幕交易，实际上在大多数情况下，这看起来并没有多大用处。

What we have, as you say, is a bunch of vibes plus some insider trading, and it just doesn't actually seem that useful to me in practice for most things.

是的。

Yeah.

我想试着为预测市场辩护一下，看看你怎么看。

I wanna try to, like, sort of steel man the defense of prediction markets here and see what you make of it.

所以，我认为那些相信预测市场在整体上有效的观点可能会这样说。

So I think someone who believes that these prediction markets are good in the aggregate might say something like the following.

人们一直都在对战争下注。

People have been betting on war forever.

他们赌国防公司的股价。

They bet on the stock prices of defense companies.

他们赌油价之类的东西。

They bet on things like oil prices.

这些都是合法的。

That is all legal.

我们认为这是正常市场的一部分。

We consider that sort of part of the normal markets.

当战争爆发时，这些事物都会波动。

Those things all fluctuate when you have a war breakout.

这有什么不同呢？

How is this any different?

你的看法。

Your response.

我觉得，这些是间接押注战争的方式，这一点实际上非常有意义。

Well, I think that it is actually really meaningful that these are indirect ways of betting on war.

对吧？

Right?

在我看来，如果我买了石油股票，假设它们会上涨，这几乎不可能会激励任何人去暗杀伊朗最高领袖。

It seems very unlikely to me that if I, like, you know, buy oil stocks assuming that they're going to go up, that I'm creating an incentive for somebody to assassinate the supreme leader of Iran.

但难道关于伊拉克战争的整个阴谋论不就是说，这场战争只是因为迪克·切尼持有大量哈利伯顿公司的股票吗？

But wasn't this the whole conspiracy theory about the war in Iraq was that it was just motivated by, like, Dick Cheney owning a bunch of stock in Halliburton?

嗯，

Well,

我的意思是，是的，那确实是个阴谋论。

I I mean, yes, that was, like, the conspiracy theory.

你知道，我不确定那真的是推动它的原因。

You know, I I don't know that that was what was actually driving it.

我认为，就像大多数战争一样，至少在那个时期，存在着许多相互关联的因素。

I think that, you know, as with most wars, at least at that time, there were sort of like a number of of interrelated factors that were going on.

而且，也许石油是其中之一。

And, you know, maybe oil was one of them.

但我想说的是，当你对事件的投注与实际行动保持某种有意义的距离时，我会感觉更好。

But my point here is just that when you have the betting at some sort of meaningful remove from the action, it just, like, feels better for me.

它不会像这种特定方式那样制造同样可怕而阴暗的激励。

It doesn't create the same horribly grim incentives that this particular approach does.

对。

Right.

对我来说，区别就在于你提到的直接性。

I think the difference for me is the directness that you mentioned.

而且，几年前我为这个故事采访人们关于预测市场时，一个反复出现的话题是，暗杀市场变得非常黑暗。

And, you know, one thing that came up over and over again when I was talking to people about prediction markets a couple years ago for this story is the assassination markets get really dark.

因为如果你有一个这样的赌注，比如，你知道，这位世界领导人会不会在引号所说的‘被罢免’之前。

Because if you have something like, you know, will this world leader, you know, be removed from power in air quotes Wink.

wink。

Wink.

在某个特定日期前被罢免，这实际上可能悬赏这个人，让人去说，嘿。

Before a certain date, that could actually create a bounty on that person where someone might go out and say, hey.

如果我想靠这个赚钱，我就得在截止日期前杀了这个人。

If I wanna make money on this, I I need to, like, kill this person before this date.

你知道接下来会有什么吗

And you know what is gonna

凯文，第一个真正采取行动的是什么？

be the first thing that actually takes action on that, Kevin?

张开爪子。

Open claw.

等着瞧吧。

Mark my words.

其中一个连接到Mac mini的机器人会看到关于某位世界领导人遇刺的预测市场，并且会想：嗯，我对这事有点想法。

One of these bots plugged into a Mac mini is gonna see a prediction market for the assassination of a world leader, and it's gonna say, well, I have some ideas about that.

所以我认为大多数人同意，像这种针对暗杀的预测市场显然是越界了，出于多种原因都是个糟糕的主意。

So I think everyone most people agree that, like, the assassination prediction market is sort of, you know, out of bounds and is a bad idea for lots of reasons.

但我认为，在涉及冲突、战争和政治的这些问题上，仍然存在很多灰色地带。

But I think there are still a lot of gray area around these questions about conflict and war and politics.

我认为这里的风险在于，这些预测市场在缺乏监管的情况下迅速流行起来，导致在上面做的许多事情虽然在普通股票市场是非法的，却在这里变得合法了。

And I think it is the the risk here is that these prediction markets have gotten so popular so quickly with so little regulatory oversight that it is just kind of legal to do a bunch of stuff on them that it's not legal to do in the regular stock market.

是的。

Yeah.

你提到一些立法者曾讨论过提出相关法案。

Well, so you mentioned that some lawmakers have talked about introducing legislation.

根据我的经验，这类法案通常都不会有下文。

My experience is that that kind of legislation typically doesn't go anywhere.

随着这场战争在伊朗持续升级，关于这些预测市场，我们究竟知道些什么？

What, if anything, do we know about what is going to happen as this war continues to unfold in Iran when it comes to these prediction markets?

我的意思是，我认为特朗普政府不太可能采取任何措施来遏制预测市场的增长。

I mean, I think the Trump administration is very unlikely to do anything to sort of stop the growth of prediction markets.

我们已经看到，他们通过针对Polymarket的这些监管行动表明，他们不会对这些预测市场采取强硬立场。

We've already seen them signal via these sort of regulatory actions that they've dropped against polymarket that they are not going to take a firm line against these prediction markets.

我们还看到他们任命了特朗普家族的成员加入他们的顾问委员会。

We've also seen them adding members of the Trump family to their advisory boards.

所以我认为，所有这些预测市场正以某种方式与政府纠缠在一起，这将使他们很难采取任何行动。

So I think all of these prediction markets are sort of becoming entangled with the administration in ways that are going to make it very hard for them to do anything.

但我确实预期，民主党议员会站出来质问：我们到底在助长什么？

But I certainly expect, like, Democratic lawmakers to stand up and say, like, what the hell are we enabling here?

我们为什么允许人们下注于世界领导人遇刺或伊朗战争的结果？

Why are we allowing people to bet on the assassination of world leaders or the outcomes of a war in Iran?

这一切对我来说都感觉极其棘手。

This just feels all incredibly fraught to me.

我担心的是，我们现在正处于一场时间竞赛中，如果民主党能够推动某些立法，也许能在中期选举中赢得一些席位，也许能重新夺回总统职位，也许在未来几年内，他们能有效遏制这些预测市场。

My my fear is that we're in a sort of time race where, like, if Democrats were able to, like, somehow advance some legislation, maybe they win some seats in the midterms, maybe they retake the presidency, maybe sometime within the next few years, they could meaningfully rein these prediction markets in.

但我认为，如果它们继续增长，我担心它们会像加密货币领域一样，成为一个庞大而根深蒂固的利益集团，从而游说促使民主党和共和党都觉得自己有 vested 利益去维持这些市场存在。

I think though if they continue to grow, my fear is that they will become a massive entrenched interest group like the crypto world, and they will then lobby to ensure that Democrats and Republicans both feel like they have a vested interest in these things sticking around.

所以，你知道，如果我们真想解决今天我们讨论的这些过度行为，就必须尽快采取行动，否则像 Call Sheet 和 Polymarket 这样的平台可能已经拥有太多资金，让这一切变得不可能。

So, you know, I I my fear is that if we're to do anything about some of these excesses we've been talking about today, it needs to happen soon or otherwise, platforms like Call Sheet and Polymarket might just have too much money for that to happen.

是的。

Yeah.

我为这些预测市场提出了一项规则：你应该像去赌场一样，必须亲自前往实体场所进行交易。

I have a proposed rule for these prediction markets, which is that you should have to go to a physical place like you do for a casino.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我觉得他们把这些东西放到人们的手机上，让操作变得太容易了。

I think they're putting this stuff on people's phones, making it super easy for them to do it.

比如，如果你想赌伊朗战争的结果，你就应该去那种脏乱的赛马投注站才行。

Like, if you wanna go bet on the war in Iran, you should have to, like, go to a seedy, like, OTB betting place to do it.

就是说，你得亲自去

Like, you should have to, like, put

做一些努力。

in some effort.

不应该像掏出手机那样简单。

It should not be as easy as whipping out your phone.

好的。

Alright.

这很有趣，凯文。

Well, it's very interesting, Kevin.

我预测我们不会尝试那样做。

I predict we are not going to try that.

不。

No.

我也预测我们不会尝试那样做。

I also predict we're not gonna try that.

但这是个好主意。

But it's a good idea.

人们应该听我的。

People should listen to me.

我们回来后，放松、合作并倾听。

When we come back, flop, collaborate, and listen.

YouTube推出了一项令人不安的新发明。

YouTube is back with a disturbing new invention.

嘿。

Hey.

我是来自Wirecutter的劳伦·德雷贡，Wirecutter是《纽约时报》的产品推荐服务，我负责测试耳机。

It's Lauren Dragon from Wirecutter, the product recommendation service from The New York Times, and I test headphones.

我们基本上会自制人工汗水，反复喷洒在这些耳机上，观察它们随着时间的推移会发生什么变化。

We basically make our own fake sweat and spray it over and over on these headphones to see what happens to them over time.

我们要戴上

We're gonna put on

一些降噪耳机，看看它们实际隔绝声音的效果如何。

some noise canceling headphones and see how well they actually block out the sounds.

我的数据库里有3,136条记录。

I have 3,136 entries in my database.

孩子们，锻炼一下。

Kids, workout.

蓝牙是什么版本？

What version of Bluetooth?

在Wirecutter，我们替你做完了所有工作。

At Wirecutter, we do the work so you don't have to.

想获取独立的产品评测和真实世界的推荐，请访问 nytimes.com/wirecutter。

For independent product reviews and recommendations for the real world, come visit us at nytimes.com/wirecutter.

好的，凯西。

Alright, Casey.

好了，是时候看看这些孩子的劣质产品了。

Well, it's time to look at some kid's slop.

是的，凯夫。

Yeah, Kev.

我们最近收到通知，称YouTube上充斥着大量为幼儿制作的AI生成内容，现在是时候看看我们面对的是什么了。

We have recently been alerted to the fact that YouTube has been beset by a bunch of AI generated slop for toddlers, and it's time to take a look and see what we're dealing with.

我在《纽约时报》的同事阿丽杰塔·拉伊卡写了一篇关于此事的新报道，题为《AI生成视频如何扭曲你孩子的YouTube推送》。

My colleague at the New York Times, Arijeta Lajka, has a new story about this called how AI generated videos are distorting your child's YouTube feed.

我读了这篇报道。

And I read the story.

我非常喜欢它。

I loved it.

我想，我得亲自看看这些内容到底是什么样子。

I thought, I've gotta see some of this slop for myself.

所以今天，让我们通过《硬核评测：垃圾内容》的新一期，来审视这种新兴的、针对儿童的AI垃圾内容。

So today, let's take a look at this emerging new genre of AI slop directed at kids with a new installment of The Hard Fork Review of Slop.

《硬核评测：垃圾内容》。

The Hard Fork Review of Slop.

好的。

Alright.

我们先看什么？

What do we have up first?

第一个是关于字母表的视频。

First is a video about the alphabet.

你知道字母表吗？

Do you know the alphabet?

说实话，我一直打算学一下。

You know, I keep meaning to learn it.

好的。

Okay.

让我们看看AI生成的字母表视频表现如何。

Let me Let's see how the AI generated alphabet videos are doing.

是的。

Yeah.

儿童电视节目。

Kids' TV.

ABC农场动物

ABC Farm Animals.

到目前为止，还不错。

So far, so good.

A代表Odaka。

A is for Odaka.

A，Odaka。

A, Odaka.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

为什么它们不是从一个小颜料瓶里喷出来的呢？

Why aren't they being squirted out of a little paint bottle?

哦

Oh,

我对这个感到非常不安。

I'm deeply uncomfortable with this.

我得回答我三岁孩子提出的很多问题，比如为什么鸭子会从牙膏管里出来。

I'm gonna have to answer so many questions from my three year old about why ducks come out of toothpaste tubes.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你在听的话，这是必要的。

This is if you're listen.

如果你只有三岁，你就需要知道这个。

If you're three years old, you need to know this.

鸭子不是这样制造出来的。

That is not how a duck is made.

所以这个视频展示了字母表，呈现了一系列以字母开头的动物，嗯。

So this video depicts the alphabet showing a series of animals whose names begin with a letter Mhmm.

然后一只拿着——我想是颜料管的手，挤出一小团恶心的黏糊糊物质，这些物质随后诡异变形为动物，同时背景里有些疯疯癫癫的孩子在唱出动物的名字。

And then a hand holding, I guess, a tube of paint sort of squirts out a little dollop of gross goo that then transforms surrely into an animal while sort of demented slop children sing the name of the animal in the background.

是的。

Yes.

就像你如果看过九十年代尼克儿童频道的电视剧《亚历克斯·麦克》，她会从地板上的黏液中慢慢拼凑出自己，这个视频有点像那样，只不过对象是动物。

Like, if you've ever seen the TV show Alex Mack from, like, the nineties on Nickelodeon where she, like, sort of assembles herself out of goo on the floor, it's sort of like that but for animals.

那部剧我出生得有点晚，恐怕没看过，不过我会去档案里查一查。

That one was a little before my time, I'm afraid, but I'll I'll research that one back in the archives.

无论如何，好吧。

In any case okay.

是的。

Yeah.

真是怪异的一段。

Very strange one.

我们来看下一个视频吧，凯文。

Let's take a look at this next video, Kevin.

现在我们看到的是什么？

What do we have now?

我相信我们会看到一些动物从五彩斑斓的云中出现。

I believe we're gonna see some animals appearing out of colorful clouds.

I 代表羚羊绿。

I is for Impala green.

羚羊

Impala

他在咆哮时卷着舌头发 r 音。

rolling the r's on his roars.

为什么另一个动物是医生？

Why are they why is the other animal a doctor?

它们为什么朝镜头跑过来？

Why are they running toward the camera?

为什么捻角羚是粉红色的？

Why is the kudu pink?

那什么是捻角羚？

And what is a kudu?

我得说，我比这些视频的目标观众年龄要大一些，但我自己也在学习新东西。

I have to say, I'm I'm a little older than the the the target age for these videos, but I'm learning things myself.

为了你。

For you.

我在学习。

I'm learning.

这个视频展示了另一系列动物，每一种都对应字母表中的一个字母。

So this video shows another series of animals, each one connected to a letter of the alphabet.

但这个视频使用了一个常见的套路，让一个医生角色给这些动物注射颜色。

But this one uses a a trope of having this doctor figure inject these animals with color.

而且这个医生也是一只动物。

And the doctor is also an animal.

而且这个医生也是一只动物。

And the doctor is also an animal.

这……是在传播反疫苗宣传吗？

Is this, like, anti vax propaganda?

问题是，制作这些内容的人知道针头对孩子来说很可怕。

Well, the thing is, like, whoever is making the slop knows that needles are scary to children.

所以这本质上就是一个吸引注意力的手段。

So this is effectively just an engagement hack.

对吧？

Right?

你知道孩子会盯着注射过程看，因为他们害怕针头。

You know the kid is going to watch the injection because the kid is afraid of needles.

所以这又是这些制作者用来吸引孩子注意力的微妙而阴险的方式之一——通过展示可怕的东西，来催眠孩子，让他们继续观看视频。

So this is just again, this is just one of these, like, little miniature insidious ways that these, like, slot makers grab the attention of kids is by, like, showing them something scary in order to hypnotize them into continuing to watch the slot.

它确实传递了一个宝贵的教训：给儿童打针会导致他们变成粉红色的库杜羚，并朝镜头跑过来。

It does teach the valuable lesson that giving injections to children does result in them turning into pink Kudus and running toward the camera.

所以所有孩子迟早都需要学习这个教训。

So all children need to learn that lesson eventually.

好吧。

Alright.

下一个，凯文，展示了动物变成装甲车辆、卡车和飞机，再次证明2026年儿童版Slop的一个关键主题是动物的变形。

This next one, Kevin, shows animals turning into armored vehicles, trucks, and planes going to show once again that a key theme in Slop for kids in 2026 is the transformation of animals.

Q代表鹌鹑。

Q is for quail.

Q，鹌鹑，衬衫，衬衫。

Q quail shirt shirt.

哦，哇。

Oh, wow.

我们这儿有点像鹌鹑圣地。

We have sort of mecca quail.

好吧。

Okay.

我不确定这是否属于对托马斯小火车IP的授权使用。

I wonder if that's a licensed use of the Thomas the Tank Engine IP.

好吧。

Okay.

不幸的是，这个让我觉得有点糟。

Unfortunately, that one slapped

对我来说。

for me.

我孩子肯定会超爱这个，但我绝对不能给他看。

I my kid would be super into that, and I must never show him that.

这个让我想起小时候看过的卡通，里面有很多变形金刚在变形。

This one reminds me of, like, cartoons that I watched as a kid where there was a lot of, you know, transformers transforming.

所以我能理解为什么很多小孩子会喜欢这个。

And so I could understand why, you know, a lot of little kids might like that one.

但你知道，这让我意识到，另一个让Slop制作者钟爱字母表的原因是，他们可以轻松地拼接一堆非常短的片段。

But, know, this is making me realize that another reason why slot makers love the alphabet is because they can just stitch together a bunch of very short clips.

当然，我们目前拥有的大多数AI视频生成器只能生成几秒钟的片段。

And of course, most of the AI video generators that we have in this moment can only generate clips of up to a few seconds.

因此，字母表就成了将所有这些片段拼接成一个至少有一定连贯性的作品的完美方式。

So the alphabet just becomes a perfect way to stitch together all of that into one piece that still at least has some sort of coherence.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我想我能够理解，在某种情况下，这些东西其实并没有那么有害。

I mean, I guess I can see a world in which, like, this stuff is not actually that harmful.

也许它确实能教孩子认字母，但这也太奇怪了。

Like, maybe it is gonna teach some kids the alphabet, but it is just so weird.

而且我觉得，我们之前已经有很多教孩子认字母的视频了。

And it strikes me as just like, what like, we already had a lot of videos teaching kids the alphabet.

为什么人们还要做这个呢？

Why why are people doing this?

但同时，你知道，我不是儿童神经学家，但我担心这种专门设计来过度刺激孩子的图像会带来什么后果。

But also and, you know, listen, I'm no child neurologist, but I wonder about the consequences of essentially just creating images that are designed to overstimulate a child.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

至少当你看普通动画片时，可能会有一些相对平静的时刻，或者故事会持续几分钟慢慢展开。

It's like, at least when you're watching like a normal cartoon, there could be moments of relative calm or like a story might unfold over a few minutes.

当你只是展示纯粹的视觉刺激，不断向孩子投射这些内容时，这看起来显然对他们没什么好处。

When you're just showing, like, raw visual stimuli and and bombarding a kid with it, it just doesn't seem like it's probably that good for them.

这就是我知道你没有孩子的原因。

This is how I know you do not have a child Yeah.

在公元2026年。

In the year of our Lord 2026.

因为如果你去看Coco Melon或者任何其他非常受欢迎的儿童节目，它们本质上就是这样的。

Because if you go onto, like, Coco Melon or any of the other, like, extremely popular children's programs, like, they are essentially just this.

就像一系列非常短的片段。

It's like a series of very short clips.

也许他们放一首歌，然后切到另一首歌，再切到另一首歌。

Maybe they do one song, and then they do another it cuts away to a different song, cuts away to a different song.

这就像一种高度刺激的环境。

It is like these same sort of like hyper stimulating environment.

所以，我不是说这些东西有任何好处。

So, like, I'm not saying that any of this is good.

我只是说，我们早就跨过了卢比孔河，现在进入了过度刺激的儿童娱乐时代。

I'm just saying that, like, we we have crossed the Rubicon a while ago, and we are now in the land of the hyper stimulating children's entertainment.

在我看来，最大的区别在于，现在制作这些东西变得更容易、更便宜了。

And, like, the big difference to my mind is now that it's just easier and cheaper to create this stuff.

听我说。

Listen.

这是我的看法。

This is my takeaway.

当我有了孩子——我确实希望有孩子的时候，我唯一允许他们接触的视觉刺激就是一堆木棍。

When I have my child, which I do hope to do, the only visual simulation that I'm going to allow them is a pile of sticks.

一个电子画板？

An Etch A Sketch?

他们可以自己用那堆木棍找乐子，但我们不会走上这条路，凯文。

They can they can make their own fun, you know, with the pile of sticks, but we're we are not going down this road, Kevin.

好吧。

Alright.

我们不如用一首摇篮曲来收尾吧，歌词是关于动画里的孩子们把自己放进用水果做的床上？

Why don't we wrap up with a lullaby about animated children tucking themselves into beds made out of fruit?

我喜欢水果床。

Love a fruit bed.

你刚才叫我什么？

What'd you call me?

金发公主躺在她的草莓床上。

Princess Blondie in her strawberry bed.

好的。

Okay.

我们有一个

We got a

围绕在她头边的梦境。

dreams around her head.

一个戴着王冠的女孩走进一张草莓做的床。

Girl with a crown going into a bed made of strawberries.

香蕉亮晶晶

Banana bright

香蕉床

Banana bed.

猕猴桃床

Kiwi bed.

如此宁静整洁

So calm and clean.

超人在橙色光芒中缓缓飘向睡眠，温暖而缓慢

Superboy in his orange glow drifts to sleep all warm and slow.

凯西，你觉得这些水果床怎么样？

Casey, what do you make of the fruit beds?

你知道吗，这又是一个让我觉得有点超现实、不太舒服的场景

You know, this is just another one that feels a little more surreal than I am comfortable with.

你知道的吧？

You know?

这让人不禁想问，孩子能从这一切中得出什么结论呢？

It's like, what is the child supposed to conclude from any of it?

它看起来更像是为了混淆孩子，而不是为了教育或真正地娱乐他们。

Like, it just sort of seems designed to confuse children more than to educate or even really entertain them.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，我得说，这里确实有几段视频，我会想，哦，我孩子可能会喜欢这个。

And there have been, I will say, like, a a few sort of videos in here where I'm like, oh, my kid would like that.

但我不喜欢他喜欢这些东西。

But I don't like that he would like that.

你知道，我不希望他看那些全是动物开公交车或者躺在水果床里的东西。

You know, it's like, don't want him watching stuff that's just like a bunch of animals, like, driving buses or lying in, you know, fruit beds.

但孩子确实喜欢很多对他们有害的东西。

But and also kids like lots of things that are bad for them.

这就是我们不让他们吸可卡因的原因。

That's why we don't let them use cocaine.

是的。

Yes.

既然我们已经看过了这些视频，我觉得我们已经做好准备，可以讨论它们各自的意义了。

Well, now that we've seen the videos, I feel like we are armed and ready to have the conversation about what they all mean.

所以，让我们请我的同事阿里杰塔·拉伊卡进来。

So let's bring in my colleague, Arijeta Lajka.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我觉得我需要先清理一下思绪。

I feel like I need to cleanse first.

也许去读一出莎士比亚的戏剧什么的。

Maybe go read a play by Shakespeare or something.

干脆去看了《路易》的一集吧。

Just go watch an episode of Louie.

非常暖心。

Very heartwarming.

Arijeta Lajka，欢迎来到《硬核》。

Arijeta Lajka, welcome to Hard Fork.

非常感谢你们邀请我。

Thank you so much for having me.

我想先问一下，你最初是怎么对这个产生兴趣的？

I wanted to just ask, like, first of all, how did you get interested in this?

你是怎么了解到这件事的？

How did you learn about this?

你是通过《纽约时报》的保密爆料渠道，从一个幼儿那里得到的线索吗？

Did you get a tip from a toddler submitting things through the New York Times confidential tip process?

这件事是怎么引起你注意的？

How did this come onto your radar?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，这个故事的诞生并没有涉及任何幼儿。

So no toddlers were involved in the making of this story.

我们在反复向他们展示这些视频时，曾有一些伦理方面的顾虑。

We had some ethical concerns there about showing them these videos repeatedly.

但我最初对这个话题产生兴趣，是因为我们的所有社交媒体动态中都充斥着大量的AI垃圾内容，无论哪个平台都一样。

But I started by getting interested in this because there is so much AI slop on all of our social media feeds, you know, regardless of the platform.

我希望能更多地了解这些内容是如何呈现给儿童的，以及它们是如何被审核的。

And I was interested in learning more about how this content is being presented to children and how it's being moderated.

那么，孩子们通常在哪里观看媒体内容呢？

And so where do many children watch media?

是YouTube。

It's YouTube.

于是我开始研究那些父母认可的频道，比如Miss Rachel和Bluey，这些频道被认为质量更高、更有思想性；还有像Cocomelon这样的热门频道。然后我想，如果我是一个幼儿，点击了一个Cocomelon视频，接着看它旁边推荐的视频，我会看到什么样的内容呢？

So I started by looking at channels that parents approve of, channels like Miss Rachel and Bluey that are considered more high quality and thoughtful and other popular channels like Cocomelon and said, well, if I click on a Cocomelon video, and I am a toddler and I look at the recommended videos right next to that video, what sort of videos would I be recommended?

我们重点关注了YouTube短视频，因为许多AI工具默认采用这种竖屏格式。

And we focused on YouTube shorts because a lot of these AI tools default to this vertical format.

于是我们开始不断刷取动态，并记录下所看到的各种视频。

And so we just started scrolling through the feed and making a note of the different videos we were seeing.

我的一位同事实际上编写了一个工具，让我不会真正与屏幕互动，这样就不会影响算法。

One of my colleagues actually coded a tool where I wasn't really interacting with the screen, so it wouldn't influence the algorithm.

我只是不断往下滚动，并记录下我看到的所有不同链接。

And I was just like scrolling down, and it was making a note of all the different links I was seeing.

后来，我们逐帧分析了这些视频，以确定哪些是人工智能生成的。

And then we later analyzed these videos frame by frame to determine which videos were AI generated.

你们用的是普通YouTube还是YouTube Kids？

And were you using regular YouTube or YouTube Kids?

我们最初在私人浏览器中查看普通YouTube，因为许多家长会用自己的YouTube账号给孩子观看。

So we started looking at regular YouTube in a private browser because a lot of parents tend to put on their own YouTube accounts for their children.

但我们也浏览了YouTube Kids，因为这是一个更受控的环境，其中的内容本应经过儿童适宜性审核。

But then we also look through YouTube Kids, you know, because it is a more controlled environment with content that's supposed to be approved for for children.

当你开始这个过程时，你的预期是怎样的？

And when you started this process, what were your sort of expectations?

那么，你最终看到的AI生成内容占总量的比例大概是多少？

And then how much AI generated stuff did you wind up seeing as, like, kind of a a proportion of the total?

所以我认为，特别是当我观看像Miss Rachel和Bluey这样的频道时，我原本期待看到更多与这些节目风格相近的内容，对吧？

So I think, especially when I was watching channels like Miss Rachel and Bluey, I was expecting to see content that that would be, you know, more in the lines of of those programs, right?

更多Bluey的短片。

More bluey shorts.

但我并没有看到多少这样的内容。

And I wasn't really seeing that.

我惊讶于被推荐的AI生成内容竟然如此之多。

I was surprised just about how much AI generated content was being recommended.

就在一次单独的浏览中，我们仅仅滚动了十五分钟，就有超过40%的视频是AI生成的。

Like in one session alone, in one fifteen minute session that we were scrolling, more than 40% of the videos were AI generated.

哇。

Wow.

你们是怎么判断出来的？

And how are you determining that?

你们有没有使用某种检测系统来分析这些内容？

Is there, like, a a detection system that you're plugging these things into?

是的

Yeah.

检测系统就是看

The detection system is called looking

视频。

at the video.

不，不是的。

Well, no.

我是说，如果你看到一个

I'm saying, like, if you have a

比如，一只羊驼从颜料管里挤出来的视频，这明显不是写实风格，但可能是用某种CGI软件制作的。

video of, like, a, you know, an alpaca getting squeezed out of a paint tube, like, that's very clearly not photorealistic, but it could be made using some, like, CGI software or something like that.

我明白了。

I see.

你确定这是AI生成的吗？

Did you determine that this was AI?

对。

Right.

所以我认为其中一些视频稍微明显一些，但我们逐帧查看，试图寻找不一致的地方。

So I think some of these videos were a little bit more obvious, but we looked at them frame by frame and tried to look for inconsistencies.

比如，在某些情况下，背景中的物体消失了。

Like, in some cases, the objects were disappearing in the background.

背景中出现了扭曲的文字。

There was text in the background that was distorted.

如果背景中有动物，它会变形为其他东西。

If there was an animal in the background, it would morph into something else.

有些视频即使本身就是动画，也被标记为合成媒体。

Some of the videos were actually labeled as synthetic media even though they were animated.

然后我们还会查看YouTube频道，了解他们过去几年发布了什么样的内容。

And then we would also look at the YouTube channel and get a sense of like, okay, what sort of content have they been posting in the last few years?

甚至一些在近两年这项技术大幅提升之前就存在的频道，也一直在发布非常简单、低质量的动画，与他们最近几个月发布的内容完全不一样。

And even some of the channels that had been around, you know, before the last two years where this technology really improved, they were making very simple low quality animation that looked nothing like what they had been posting the last few months.

现在，阿里jeta，我做过很多关于YouTube的报道，但那是几年前的事了。

Now, Arijeta, I have done a lot of reporting on YouTube, but it's been a few years.

他们今天对这类内容的实际政策是什么？

What are their actual policies like today on this kind of content?

所以我给他们发了几个频道作为例子，问他们对于标记针对儿童的AI内容（包括动画内容）的政策是什么。

So I sent them a few channels as examples, and I asked them what their policy is around flagging AI content that's being made for children, and that includes animated content.

他们告诉我，内容创作者必须标注看起来逼真的内容。

And they told me that content creators are required to label content that is realistic looking.

在某些情况下，我们发现创作者没有标注这些内容，我指的是那些展示动物不可能行为的视频，比如大象在钢丝上做体操动作。

In some cases, we saw that creators weren't labeling the content and I'm referring to videos of animals, you know, displaying behaviors that those animals don't do, like elephants doing gymnastic maneuvers on a tightrope.

例如，这些视频并没有被标记为合成媒体。

Those videos, for example, are not labeled as synthetic media.

有些创作者确实标注了动画视频，但这并不是YouTube的政策要求。

Some creators were labeling the animated videos, but it's not part of YouTube's policy.

因此，责任实际上落到了家长身上，尤其是那些不希望孩子观看AI生成媒体的家长，他们必须自行判断：这段视频到底是什么类型？

So it's really the burden is falling on parents, especially for parents who may not want their child to watch AI generated media to determine, okay, what sort of video is this?

不仅如此，你还得点开视频才能看到合成媒体的标签。

And not only that, but you have to click through the video and then you see the synthetic media label.

至于YouTube上的儿童内容，YouTube是不允许评论的。

And when it comes to kids content on YouTube, YouTube doesn't allow comments.

所以，当出现AI生成的视频时，有时人们会在评论区说：这是AI做的。

So sometimes when there's an AI generated video, you'll have people in the comments say, like, this is AI.

在这种情况下，父母们根本无法互相交流，讨论视频到底是什么内容。

And in this case, you know, parents can't really talk amongst themselves as to what the video is.

到目前为止，我们有没有看到家长对这类视频的反弹？

Has there been any backlash yet that we've seen from parents against these kinds of videos?

比如，有没有家长对所看到的内容感到不满？

Like, are are some parents upset by what they're seeing?

是的。

Yeah.

我们发现了一些Reddit论坛，上面有人在询问如何绕过YouTube上针对儿童的AI劣质内容，或者YouTube是否有过滤功能。

We we came across several Reddit forums where people were asking how to get around this AI slop for kids, whether there was a filter on YouTube.

一些家长建议创建一个播放列表。

Some parents recommended making a playlist.

其他家长则说，干脆彻底离开YouTube。

Other parents were like, get off YouTube altogether.

我认为，很多责任还是要落在家长身上，要密切监督孩子观看的内容，因为算法正在推送大量这类内容。

And I I think, a lot of it is also gonna fall on parents to, you know, closely supervise what kids are watching since the algorithm is pushing so much of this content.

对。

Right.

当然，YouTube的整个意义就在于，你可以把视频放给孩子看，这样你就不用花时间陪他们了。

Although, of course, the whole point of YouTube is that what it's what you show your kids so that you don't have to spend time with them.

对吧？

Right?

你知道的。

You know?

这有点过分，但不是那种恶意的过分，而是说，也许你得去做晚饭。

It's mean, and not in a mean way, but, like, maybe you have to cook dinner.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

父母都很忙。

Parents are busy.

是的。

Yeah.

如果父母真的能坐下来和孩子一起看YouTube，我们就不会陷入这种状况了。

Like, if if parents were, you know, sitting down to, like, watch YouTube with their children, like, we would not be in that situation.

对。

Right.

而且我要说，比如

And I'll say, like,

作为一个快四岁孩子的父母，我曾经有几次发现他看了这种内容，因为他不小心打开了YouTube儿童应用，或者类似的情况。

as the parent of a almost four year old, like, the the couple times that I've, like, found him watching something like this because he, like, you know, went on to the YouTube kids app when he wasn't supposed to or something.

我对这件事的感觉并不是觉得它在伤害我的孩子。

My feeling about it is not like this is damaging my child.

只是觉得，这实在太糟糕了。

It's just like, this is so bad.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，内容的质量真的太差了。

Like, the quality is just so bad.

我想知道，阿里jeta，你认为有没有什么相关的证据？

I I wonder if you think, Arijeta, like, there's any sort of evidence.

我们对这些内容对孩子产生的实际影响了解多少？

What do we know about the actual effects of this on kids?

是担心它真的在伤害他们，还是担心他们本可以看些更好的内容？

Is the worry that it's actually harming them, or is the worry that there's like, there's just better stuff they could be watching?

所以有很多因素需要考虑。

So there's a lot of factors to consider.

这些视频包含许多无关的特效，而我们知道，当视频充斥这些花哨元素时，孩子们的学习效果会大打折扣。

So these videos contain extraneous effects, and we know that when videos contain all these bedazzling elements, kids can learn as well.

它们也缺乏叙事结构，而有明确开端、中间和结尾、角色鲜明且孩子能产生共鸣的内容，对儿童来说非常有益；这类内容使用简短易懂的短语，避免抽象概念。

They're also devoid of a narrative arc, which is really beneficial for kids to watch content with the beginning, middle, and end with characters they can relate to, that they're familiar with, watching content that uses short phrases that they can understand and doesn't feature these abstract concepts.

最糟糕的情况下，许多这类视频充满奇幻色彩，可能对儿童造成认知超载。

You know, worst case, a lot of these videos are fantastical and that could be cognitively overloading to the child.

至于短视频，专家指出，对于五岁以下的儿童，他们的注意力系统仍在发展中。

And when it comes to short form content, experts say for children under five, we know their attention systems are still developing.

因此，他们很难跟上快速切换的画面。

So it's hard for them to follow rapid changes.

这给儿童带来了巨大的信息处理负担，尤其是当我们看到更逼真的奇幻内容，比如动物表现出怪异行为时。

And it really puts a heavy burden on children to process that information, especially when we we see this more realistic fantastical content of animals, you know, showing bizarre behaviors.

你知道吗，凯文，我小时候在上世纪，会看《希曼》。

You know, when I was growing up, Kevin, in the nineteen hundreds, I would watch He Man.

还记得《希曼》吗？

Remember He Man?

是的。

Yes.

那是一部关于一个拿着剑、骑着老虎四处游荡的同性恋者的卡通。

It was a cartoon about a a gay guy who had a sword and rode a tiger around.

小时候，他是同性恋吗？有官方设定吗？

And as a young Was he gay canonically?

我认为官方没有明确设定，但你可以从字里行间去理解。

I think not canonically, but read between the lines.

明白吗？

Okay?

从字里行间去理解。

Read between the lines.

好的。

Okay.

而且，作为一个年轻的同性恋孩子，我能看懂并产生共鸣，你知道吗？

And, you know, as a young gay kid, I could see that and relate to that and it you know?

而且，是的，这些故事都很奇幻，你知道的？

And and, yes, the stories were fantastical, You know?

但正如阿里jeta所指出的，这些故事都有开头、中间和结尾。

But to Arijeta's point, there was a beginning and a middle and an end.

对。

Right.

我知道，它们并没有直接教给我世界的道理，但或许让我明白了关于故事和叙事的一些东西，而不仅仅是那些粗糙的闪烁画面和颜色。

And I I know, it didn't exactly, like, teach me in the ways of the world, but, like, it maybe told me something about, like, storytelling and narrative, and it wasn't just sort of, like, raw flashing shapes and colors.

是的。

Yes.

我的意思是，我记得在有孩子之前，曾和YouTube上的人争论过YouTube Kids，因为早在2017年和2018年，就有人讨论并担心这些奇怪的视频。

I mean, I remember before I had a kid having this argument with people at YouTube about YouTube Kids because there was I think there was, you know, discussion and concern even back in, like, 2017 and 2018 about these weird videos.

那时候还没有AI生成的内容，但它们就是一些奇怪的Cocomelon仿制品。

They weren't AI generated at the time, but they were just, like, weird sort of Cocomelon rip offs.

我记得当时对这些YouTube的人说，你们得改变你们的做法。

And I remember saying to these these YouTube people, like, you guys gotta change the way that you do this.

比如，与其默认允许频道向非常年幼的孩子推送内容，你们得建立一个白名单，如果能证明你们的故事有开头、中间和结尾，并且确实投入了思考，才能被允许出现在YouTube Kids上。

Like, instead of just default allowing channels to serve content to very young children, you have to, like, kinda set up some white list where, like, if you prove that, like, your stories have a beginning, middle, and end, and, like, there's some thought being put into them, you are allowed to be on YouTube Kids.

如果你们只是某个只是不断生产Cocomelon仿制品的内容农场，那你们就别想上YouTube Kids了。

And if you're not, if you're just some, like, content farm that's, like, churning out Cocomelon rip offs, like, you're you're not gonna be allowed on.

所以，Arijeta，你有没有感觉到YouTube方面对这种问题有任何关注或考虑？

So do you get the sense, Arijeta, that there's any, like, concern or consideration of this at YouTube?

还是说他们根本就是觉得，哎，我们有更重要的事要忙？

Or are they basically just sort of like, you know, we got bigger fish to fry?

我的意思是，这些视频和这些频道多次被推荐给我。

I mean, these videos are recommended to me and these channels multiple times.

而且从十一月开始，我就一直在看这些视频。

And I I've been looking at these videos since November.

所以

So

我 和

I And

它对你大脑造成了什么影响？

what has

它对你大脑造成了什么影响？

it done

你是不是会背字母表？

to your brain?

我确信你知道字母表。

And I bet you know your alphabet.

我会。

I do.

是的。

Yeah.

字母表和那些歌曲真的会一直萦绕在脑海里。

My the alphabet and, you know, those songs really get stuck in your head.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

哦，相信我。

Oh, trust me.

我知道。

I know.

然后让我觉得特别有趣的是，推荐给我的这类视频比像PBS儿童频道这样更有深度的内容要多得多。

And then it's just so it's so fascinating to me how much more of these videos are recommended to me than more thoughtful content like PBS Kids, for example.

因为PBS儿童频道也会发布短视频，但我看到的这类视频比PBS儿童频道的还要多。

Because PBS Kids also puts out shorts, but I was seeing more of this than PBS Kids.

我的意思是，简单来说，就像凯文的问题一样，我想表达一下。

I I mean, just to sort of, like, you know, echo Kevin's question.

这让我想到了艾莎门事件。

This has gotten me thinking about Elsa Gate.

对吧？

Right?

2017年曾发生过一场争议，当时许多家长在YouTube上看到大量超现实的内容，感到非常不安。

There's a 2017 controversy where parents see a lot of really surreal content in YouTube, and they get very upset.

但似乎我们至今还没有看到类似的强烈反弹。

It seems like we have not seen that kind of backlash yet.

我在想，这是不是因为我们觉得这里的某些内容实际上更好，还是说大多数家长根本没意识到，他们的孩子可能正被推送海量低质内容？

And I'm wondering, is it because we just feel like the content is actually better here in some ways, or are most parents just not actually aware of just, like, the volume of slop that might be being served to their kids?

由于这些视频大多是动画形式，一些家长可能根本没意识到它们是AI生成的。

Because so many of these videos are animated, it may not be obvious to some parents that these are AI generated.

但我们当时所处的环境要更加可控。

But we were working in a more contained environment.

在YouTube的其他地方，有大量视频以儿童喜爱的热门角色为主角，却呈现极其暴力的场景。

So, like, elsewhere on YouTube, there are so many videos featuring popular characters that children like in very violent scenarios.

有一档节目叫《玛莎和熊》，我记得我搜索‘玛莎’时，竟然看到许多视频显示玛莎的肚子被剖开，那个频道一直在上传这类视频，直到我在我的故事里链接了其中一个视频，YouTube才将其下架。

There's this show called Masha and the Bear and I remember I typed in Masha and I was coming across videos of Masha's stomach being cut open and and that channel was putting up these videos and YouTube didn't take them down until I linked out to one of them in my story.

天啊。

Wow.