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你好。
Hi.
我叫达娜。
My name is Dana.
我是《纽约时报》的订阅用户,但我的丈夫不是。
I am a subscriber to The New York Times, but my husband isn't.
能够分享一道食谱、一篇文章,或者和他玩填字游戏或Connections,真的会很好。
And it would be really nice to be able to share a recipe or an article or compete with him in Wordle or Connections.
谢谢。
Thank you.
达娜,我们听到你了。
Dana, we heard you.
推出《纽约时报》家庭订阅服务。
Introducing the New York Times Family Subscription.
一个订阅,可为生活中最多四位家人提供独立登录账号。
One subscription up to four separate logins for anyone in your life.
了解更多,请访问 nytimes.com/family。
Find out more at nytimes.com/family.
喂,凯文,你看到这个了吗?
Well, Kevin, did you see this?
埃隆·马斯克告诉 xAI 的员工,公司需要在月球上建一座工厂,用来制造人工智能卫星,并用一个巨大的弹射器将它们发射到太空。
Elon Musk told employees at x AI that the company needs a factory on the moon to build AI satellites and a massive catapult to launch them into space.
是的。
Yes.
这是他从火星转向的新方向。
This is his new pivot from Mars.
他不再像过去那样对火星感兴趣了。
He's no longer interested in Mars as he was all those years.
现在他要把目标转向月球。
Now he's going to the moon.
这家疯疯癫癫的公司。
This Looney Tunes ass company.
我发誓。
I swear to god.
埃隆·马斯克,我有话对你说。
Elon Musk, I have a message for you.
如果兔八哥出现
If Bugs Bunny ever shows
并告诉你爬进那个弹射器,千万别信他。
up and tells you to climb into that catapult, do not trust him.
明白吗?
Okay?
那是个狡猾的兔子。
That is a rascally rabbit.
你可能会发现自己被送入太空,朋友。
And and you you might find yourself in space, my friend.
他会从月球弹射器把你发射出去。
He's gonna launch you from the moon catapult.
你知道吗?
You know what?
那可能就是我希望的离世方式,显然,就是先在新闻行业好好干上一辈子,然后把我放进月球弹射器里。
That might be the way I wanna go out, obviously, is just have a nice long career in journalism and then put me in the moon catapult.
我准备好了。
I'm I'm ready.
我是凯文·罗斯,《纽约时报》的科技专栏作家。
I'm Kevin Roose, a tech columnist at the New York Times.
我是来自《Platformer》的凯西·诺恩。
I'm Casey Noon from Platformer.
这里是《Hard Fork》。
And this is Hard Fork.
本周,劳动之痛:为什么人工智能正从市场到劳动力引发恐慌。
This week, labor pains, why AI is causing freakouts from the markets to the workforce.
接着,《纽约时报》的亚历山德拉·阿尔特将讲述浪漫小说行业如何被人工智能作者所取代。
Then, the Times' Alexandra Alter on how the romance novel industry is being overtaken by AI authors.
最后,到了我们新板块的时间了——一件好事。
And finally, it's time for our new segment, one good thing.
它取代了我们之前的板块——一大堆糟糕的事。
It replaces our previous segment, a lot of terrible things.
好了,凯文,欢迎你从我们国家的首都回来。
Well, Kevin, welcome back from our nation's capital.
是的。
Yes.
这周我短暂去了华盛顿特区,参加了一些图书会议,天气非常冷。
I was in DC very briefly this week there for some book meetings, and it was very cold.
但更大的感受是,华盛顿特区现在正对
But the bigger observation is that Washington DC is, like, freaking out about
人工智能感到恐慌。
AI.
是这样吗?
Is that right?
是的。
Yes.
所以我去的每个地方、每次会面,人们都会问我,这些东西是真实的吗?
So everywhere I went, every meeting I had, people were sort of asking me, is this stuff real?
真的在发生吗?
Is it happening?
我们进入起飞阶段了吗?
Are we in the takeoff?
奇点正在逼近吗?
Is the singularity approaching?
就在过去几周里,人工智能的政治关注度确实显著提升了。
And it does feel like the sort of political salience of AI has gotten much, much higher just in the past couple of weeks.
那你认为这是为什么呢?
Well, why do you think that is?
所以现在有很多
So there are a lot
有好多原因。
of reasons for that.
我认为其中一个原因是,越来越多的人开始意识到这些模型新的自主编码能力。
I think one of them is that I think there's been a lot of people waking up to the new agentic coding capabilities of these models.
我们当然在节目中讨论过这一点,比如Cloud Code等等。
We've obviously talked about that on the show, Cloud Code, etcetera.
我认为这一点正开始逐渐渗透到外界。
I think that is starting to kind of make its way out into the world.
此外,由于AI的威胁,许多软件股票的股价一直在下跌。
There's also the stock market stuff that's been going on with a lot of the software stocks that are falling because of the threat of AI.
然后,我认为还有一种潜移默化的文化氛围转变,导致我生活中一些原本不属于AI圈的人也给我发消息,说:嘿。
And then I think there's just sort of this ambient cultural vibe shift happening that has led to a lot of people in my life who are not, like, AI bubble people texting me and saying, hey.
这真的值得我担心吗?
Is this really something I should be worried about?
我的工作会不会有风险?
Is my job at risk here?
所以今天,我认为我们应该谈谈这个问题,因为除此之外,我昨天一天内就被发了至少三次这篇由马特·舒马赫写的爆款文章,标题是《大事正在发生》。
And so today, I think we should talk about this because among other reasons, there is this viral essay that I've been sent now no fewer than three times just in the past day that is by a man named Matt Schumer called something big is happening.
这篇文章基本上是你我在这档节目中讨论过一段时间的内容的精炼版,也就是这些工具变得越来越强大。
And it's basically a distilled version of something you and I have been talking about on this show for a while now, which is like these tools are getting really good.
它们正在改变程序员的工作方式。
They're changing the way that programmers work.
它们正接近某个转折点,每个人都应该对此感到担忧。
They're approaching some sort of inflection point, and everyone needs to be worried about this.
是的。
Yeah.
因此,所有这些都让我开始觉得,这里确实正在发生一些大事,虽然我不确定这是否完全符合马特所认为的情况,但我确实认为,人们对AI及其发展方向的感受和认知正在达到一个转折点,我认为今天我们值得花些时间来探讨这一点。
So all of this is starting to make me think that there is something big happening here, and I'm not sure it's exactly what Matt thinks is happening, but I do think we are reaching an inflection point in people's feelings and senses about AI and where it's going, and I think we should spend some time today exploring that.
有很多内容可以深入探讨,凯文。
There's a lot to dive into, Kevin.
在我们开始之前,也许我们应该先做一下声明。
And before we do that, perhaps we should make our disclosures.
是的。
Yes.
我为《纽约时报》工作,该公司正在起诉OpenAI、微软和Perplexity,指控它们侵犯版权。
I work for the New York Times, which is suing OpenAI, Microsoft, and Perplexity over alleged copyright violations.
我男朋友在Anthropic工作。
And my boyfriend works at Anthropic.
好的。
Okay.
那我们先从他们所谓的SaaSpocalypse说起吧,也就是某些科技股的抛售潮。
So let's start with this what they're calling the SaaSpocalypse, the sell off in some of the tech stocks.
SaaS当然是指软件即服务。
SaaS is, of course, software as a service.
不是那种
Not the sort
你在《鲁保罗变装皇后秀》上常见的SaaS。
of SaaS you're used to seeing on RuPaul's Drag Race.
是的。
Yes.
不同的类型。
Different kind.
所以这指的是像Salesforce和Workday这样的公司。
So this would be companies like Salesforce and Workday.
还有哪些不错的SaaS公司?
And what are some other good SaaS companies?
一个好的SaaS公司是这样的。
A good here's a SaaS company.
如果你在旧金山见过广告牌,但完全不明白那家公司是做什么的,那它就是一家SaaS公司。
If you've ever seen a billboard in San Francisco and you haven't understood what the company does, that's a SaaS company.
是的。
Yes.
这些公司向其他企业销售软件。
These are companies that sell software to other businesses.
是的。
Yeah.
在过去的几周里,我们看到这些公司的股价急剧下跌。
And over the past couple of weeks, we've seen a lot of these companies' stock prices falling precipitously.
因此,本周一,生产管理软件公司 monday.com 在发布了一周的财务前景后,股价暴跌了20%以上。
So on Monday this week, monday.com, the production management software company, their stock plunged more than 20% after a week financial outlook.
真的
Had a real
那边可是真够‘星期一综合症’的。
case of the Mondays over there.
是的。
Yes.
Workday 是一家为公司提供人力资源工具的公司。
Workday, which makes sort of HR tools for companies.
他们在周一宣布,由于去年股价下跌了17%,其首席执行官将离职。
They announced on Monday that their CEO is stepping down after their stock lost 17% of its value last year.
他的Workday突然结束了。
His Workday came to an abrupt end.
是的。
Yes.
还有很多其他SaaS公司的股票也下跌了。
And a bunch of other SaaS company stocks also fell.
Salesforce、Shopify、Adobe、SAP、Oracle、微软。
Salesforce, Shopify, Adobe, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft.
基本上,如果你是一家为其他公司开发软件的公司,这个月过得并不好。
Basically, if you are a company that builds software for other companies, you are not having a good month.
给我们讲讲基本的投资逻辑吧,凯文,为什么这些公司的价值下降了
And give us the basic investor thesis, Kevin, for why those companies aren't worth as
不再那么值钱了。
much anymore.
所以在我看来,这次具体的情况并没有一个明确的直接诱因。
So I think in this specific instance, it's not clear to me that there was, like, one particular trigger.
人们将这次抛售归因于Anthropic发布的一组插件,其中包含一些面向律师事务所的AI工具,有些人认为这在很大程度上引发了市场抛售。
People pointed to this set of plug ins that Anthropic released, which included some tools for law firms trying to use AI, and some people think that was sort of behind a lot of the the sell off.
我不认为就是这个具体原因。
I don't think it was that in particular.
我认为这可能只是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。
I think maybe that was sort of the the straw that broke the camel's back.
但我认为,正如我们在节目中讨论的那样,人们越来越有一种感觉:现在你、我,甚至任何人都理论上可以自己构建类似的产品,这些公司的价值可能因此不再那么高。
But I think there is sort of a mounting sense that as we've talked about in this show, now you and I and anyone can theoretically at least build your own version of that, and these companies may not be as valuable.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,一直有人会审视像Salesforce这样的产品,它提供客户关系管理服务。
I mean, there have always been people who would look at a product like Salesforce, which offers customer relationship management.
你知道,对于销售人员来说,它能帮助你追踪所有的潜在客户。
You know, if you're a salesperson, it helps you keep track of all of your different leads.
他们说,这本质上不过就是一个高级的电子表格。
And they've said, well, you know, that's basically just a fancy spreadsheet.
你知道吧?
You know?
我可以自己做一个电子表格。
I could make my own spreadsheet.
每年都会有一些公司直接挑战Salesforce,声称他们能做出更好的版本。
And there are companies that are born almost every year that kind of take a direct run at Salesforce and they say, we can build a better version of this.
我认为,当Claude Cowork发布时,你突然可以把电脑上的一堆文件扔进Claude,就能得到有用的结果,当时就有人觉得,也许我们自己也能做出一个类似的版本。
And I do think that when Claude Cowork came out all and of a sudden, you could just take a bunch of files on your computer and throw them into Claude and get something useful back, there were people who said, maybe we can actually just make a version of it ourselves.
作为一个小企业主,我用过Claude的一个财务插件。
And I will say, as a small business owner, I used a plugin that Claude has for finances.
我把我的会计过去五年多为我整理的所有财务数据都上传给了Claude。
And I just took all of my financial data that my bookkeeper has kept for me, you know, over the past five plus years.
我把这些数据扔进Claude,我们围绕我的业务状况进行了一次深入的对话。
And I threw it into Claude, and we had a nice long conversation about what was going on in my business.
碰巧的是,我并没有为此支付任何初创公司费用。
Now, it so happens that I don't pay a startup to do this for me.
这只是一个我意外得到的小福利。
This was just kind of a little bonus that I got.
但我能想象有些人会说:既然我现在可以把这些文件丢进我电脑里的某个工具里,为什么还要用这种定制化的金融初创公司来做业务分析呢?
But could I imagine some people saying, hey, why am I using this kind of like bespoke financial startup to do business analysis when now I can just put these files into something that lives on my computer.
所以我确实能理解为什么市场会如此震惊
So I actually do feel like I have a sense of why the market freaked out a
有一点。
little bit.
是的。
Yeah.
你觉得这种恐惧有道理吗?
And do you feel like that fear is justified?
比如,商业界对此已经有一些反应了。
Like, do you because there's there have been a couple reactions to this from the business community.
这些反应主要是投资者的反应,他们惊呼:天啊,所有的SaaS公司都被高估了。
Reaction is the sort of investor reaction, which is, oh my god, all of the SaaS companies are overvalued.
Salesforce不再拥有护城河了。
Salesforce doesn't have a moat anymore.
Workday也不再拥有护城河了。
Workday doesn't have a moat anymore.
每个人都会用直觉编程的方式自己开发这些工具,并在公司里使用。
Everyone's gonna be vibe coding their own versions of these tools and using them at their businesses.
另一种反应则是对前一种反应的回应:别紧张,别慌,没人会用直觉编程来写工资软件。
And the other reaction, which is sort of the the the reaction to that reaction is like, calm down, don't freak out, no one is gonna be vibe coding their payroll software.
事情不是这样的。
That's not how this works.
所以有人认为,这个市场的反应被夸大了。
So there are people saying, yeah, this market reaction is overblown.
尽管这些直觉编程工具非常酷,但它们并不会导致软件行业的消亡。
And despite the fact that these vibe coding tools are very cool, they are not going to lead to the death of the software industry.
这引出了一个非常有趣的问题,我认为这个问题至今仍未有答案,凯文。
So this gets at a really interesting question that I think is still unanswered, Kevin.
那么,是什么让这些公司真正变得脆弱?
And that is, what makes these companies truly vulnerable?
是技术本身,还是说这项技术只是催生了不同的商业模式?
Is it the technology itself or is it that the technology will just enable different kinds of business models?
对吧?
Right?
因此,认为是技术本身的人会说,看,我们现在能自己用氛围编程写出所有软件了。
So the argument that it's the technology itself is the person who says, look, we're just gonna be able to vibe code all our own software now.
或者我们会拥有非常智能的代理,能完成我们过去购买的每款软件所做的事情。
Or or or we'll have like just very smart agents that can do all of the different things that every piece of software we used to buy did for us.
对吧?
Right?
这是一种技术将摧毁一切的观点。
That's the sort of technology demolishes everything argument.
我认为这是一种少数派观点。
And I would say that that's like a minority view.
我读过和交谈过的大多数人并不认为这种情况会发生。
The the most of the people that I read and talk to do not actually think that that's gonna happen.
但还有一种观点认为,这项技术促使了商业模式的变革。
But there is this other view, which is that the technology enables a change in the business model.
我认为法律领域是一个很好的例子来思考这个问题。
And I think law is a really good place to think about that.
对吧?
Right?
因为律师的费用很高。
Because lawyers are expensive.
他们按小时收费。
They charge by the hour.
最贵的律师每小时收费高达1500美元。
The most expensive ones charge $1,500 for an hour of a lawyer's time.
那么,当你不再需要律师的一小时服务时,会发生什么?
Well, what happens when you don't need an hour of a lawyer's time anymore?
如果有一个法律初创公司能几乎瞬间完成你所有的合同审查,会发生什么?
What happens when there's a legal startup that does all your contract review essentially instantly?
围绕这一点将会出现一种不同的商业模式。
There's gonna be a different business model around that.
所以,如果你是一家大型老牌律师事务所,收费每小时1500美元,突然之间,这些小型初创公司确实有可能抢走你的生意。
And so if you're a big white shoe law firm and you're charging $1,500 an hour, all of a sudden, does seem possible that one of these little startups is gonna eat your lunch.
这就是我想区分的关键点。
So that's the distinction I would draw.
是的。
Yeah.
所以你认为这更像是一个只有十名员工的初创公司,利用人工智能完成几年前需要一千人才能完成的工作。
So you see this more as like a case of the startup with 10 employees being able to use AI to do the work that would have required a thousand people a year or two ago.
是的。
Yes.
当然。
Absolutely.
我们来谈谈科技领域另一个非常常见的商业模式。
Let's talk about an another really common business model in tech.
许多这些企业软件公司都采用按‘席位’收费的方式。
A lot of these business software companies have you pay by what they call the seat.
所以,如果你希望你的10名员工能够使用像Notion这样的软件,你就需要购买10个席位。
So if you want 10 of your employees to be able to use software, like, let's say, Notion, you buy 10 seats.
目前在硅谷正在蔓延的另一种焦虑是,按席位付费可能不再合理了,因为我们实际上只需要一个代理就能完成所有这些工作。
Another threat of anxiety rippling through Silicon Valley right now is maybe paying by the seat isn't really gonna make sense anymore because we're actually just gonna have one agent that does that whole thing.
我们不会把这一点暴露给员工,他们再也不需要为此操心了。
We're not gonna expose that to employ employees don't need to worry about that anymore.
所以我们不会再购买席位了。
And so we're just not gonna buy seats.
所以,如果我要在这里做一个预测,那就是你会看到更多公司尝试基于成果的定价模式。
So again, if if I had, like, one prediction to make here, it's that you're gonna see more companies experiment with outcome based pricing.
你已经可以看到像Sierra这样的客户服务初创公司开始这样做了。
You're already starting to see this with companies like Sierra, which is a customer service startup.
它们会处理你的企业可能收到的客户服务咨询。
And they will sort of handle customer service, like inquiries that your business may get.
你根据Sierra为你解决的通话数量向其付费。
And you pay Sierra based on how many calls it resolves for you.
我认为,我们将会越来越多地看到这种模式。
So that's the kind of thing that I think we're gonna start seeing more and more of.
需要明确的是,如果你是一家现有的SaaS公司,并且你的商业模式是按席位收费,这最终将会成为一个问题。
And to be clear, if you're if you're like an incumbent SaaS company and you have a seat based business model, that is eventually gonna be a problem for
是的。
Yeah.
你觉得这次抛售是合理的吗?
So do you think this sell off is justified?
你认为这些公司及其投资者内部的人们是因为正确的原因而恐慌吗?
Do you think people are panicking for the right reasons inside these companies and their investors?
有一件有趣的事。
Here's a funny thing.
作为一名记者,我们是不允许购买个股的。
As a journalist, we're not allowed to buy individual stocks.
所以我实际上从来不知道投资者应该做什么。
So I actually never have any idea of what the investors are supposed to be doing.
所以我不打算评论我认为股票市场在这里是否合理,但我很乐意谈谈整体情况,即:我认为人工智能即将改变大量商业模式,许多企业可能不得不大幅变革或因此倒闭吗?
So I'm not gonna, you know, I'm not gonna comment on whether I think, you know, the stock market is justified here or not, but I'm happy to comment on the overall picture, which is, do I think that AI is about to change a whole lot of business models and that a whole lot of businesses are probably gonna have to either change dramatically or go out of business as a result?
当然。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为那种‘没人会自己用聊天方式编写工资软件’的说法,我并不像有些人那样确信。
And I think this this notion that, like, no one is gonna vibe code their own payroll software, I think that is like, I am not as convinced of that as some people.
我认为,如果你是一家拥有上万名、两万名员工的企业,正在按席位付费购买某种软件,无论是工资系统、Workday还是HR合规软件,这些都确实是实实在在的开支。
I think that if you are a business and you have, you know, 10,000, 20,000 employees and you're paying by the seat for some piece of software, whether it's payroll or Workday or your HR compliance software, those are real expenses.
所以,你认为公司的CEO真的会用一个云提示就‘聊天编写’出一款能替代现有软件工具的程序吗?
And so do I think that the, like, the CEO of the company is gonna vibe code the thing, you know, with one cloud prompt that is gonna replace the software tool?
不。
No.
但我完全可以想象这样一个世界:有一两名全职开发者负责管理、监督和修复你们内部的软件,而无需为他人提供的软件支付大量授权费用,我认为这是一种非常可能的结果。
But I can totally imagine a world in which you have sort of one or two full time developers who are managing and overseeing and repairing your own internal software, and you don't have to pay for a bunch of seats for someone else's thing, I think that's a very plausible outcome.
因此,我对这些SaaS企业所面临的担忧并没有像一些人那样轻易否定。
So I am not as dismissive of the sort of the fear around these SaaS businesses as some people.
然而,如果我是任何一家拥有数万名员工、按席位收费的企业,我会非常担忧。
And yet, if I were any of these large enterprise businesses with tens of thousands of employees charging, you know, per seat for software, I'm I'm very worried.
是的。
Yeah.
现在,我们听到的另一种对‘AI将吞噬所有软件公司’这一说法的反驳是:AI生成的软件会极其不安全、粗糙且充满漏洞,没人会依赖它。
Now another pushback that we're seeing to this narrative that, like, AI is gonna eat all the software companies is, well, it's all gonna be so insecure and sloppy and buggy that no one is gonna rely on it.
你如何看待这个观点?
Do what do you make of that argument?
我认为你完全正确,它确实会存在漏洞和不安全的问题,但你说人们不会依赖它,这是错的。
I think you're absolutely right that it will be buggy and insecure, and you're wrong that people won't rely on it.
从我们对摩尔定律狂热现象的观察来看,安全基本上是最不被重视的,至少对于那些只想第一时间尝试一切的前沿狂热者来说是这样。
If there's one thing we've seen with molt book mania, it's that security is basically the last priority, at least for the, you know, bleeding edge maniacs who just want to try everything first.
没错。
Right.
但如果你是一家律师事务所、银行或类似机构,你确实会在意这些事情。
But if you're a law firm or a bank or something like that, you do care about things like that.
我认为这是对的。
I I think that that is true.
而且,确实有一些初创公司,我知道这一点,因为我看到旧金山各地的广告牌都在专门提供各种合规服务。
And, you know, there are whole startups, and I know this because I see the billboards around San Francisco that specialize in various compliance functions.
你知道吗?
Know?
意思是,如果你要提供这种服务,就必须达到某种合规标准,所以你会付钱给我们,确保一切顺利进行。
It's like, well, if you're gonna offer this kind of service, you have to be this kind of compliant, and so you're gonna pay us to make sure that all goes very well.
对我来说,这就像一个可重复的自动化流程,你只是想让你的业务符合表格上的诸多检查项,这看起来完全像是可以训练一个智能体来完成的任务。
That to me like, because that is a repeatable automated process where you're just trying to get your business to, like, match a bunch of check boxes on a form, that just kind of seems like something that you're gonna be able to train an agent to do.
所以,有些领域我认为在很长一段时间内都会非常危险。
So there are gonna be some categories of things that I think are just gonna be very risky for a long time.
而像这种自动化合规功能,我一看就觉得,实在想不出有什么理由说一个优秀的智能代理做不到这些。
And then there are just these kind of automated compliance functions that I just look at and I think, well, I don't I can't think of a reason why a good agent wouldn't be able to do that.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,在那些更敏感的行业,或者有更多监管和合规需求的领域,自动化这些功能可能需要多花点力气,但我认为完全可行。
And I think in these cases where it's in a more sensitive industry or something that has more regulatory or compliance needs, like, I just think it will take a little bit more effort to automate some of these functions, but I think it's totally doable.
就在上周,我们听说了一个关于Anthropic与高盛合作的故事。
So one one thing that we've heard about just in the last week was this story about Anthropic developing tools with Goldman Sachs.
这两家公司一直在高盛内部部署AI代理,而且Anthropic实际上会派出前线工程师——如果你是大客户,就像其他AI公司一样,他们会派人到你的办公室,协助将智能代理融入你的工作流程。
So together, these companies have been deploying AI agents inside Goldman, and Anthropic actually has forward deployed engineers that will, like, go to if you're a big customer, you know, like every other AI company, they will send people to your office to, like, work to put agents into your workflows.
因此,我们看到的情况是,对于那些高度敏感的事务,设计符合所有要求的AI工具并非不可能,但你可能需要更多的指导和支持。
And so that is also something that we're seeing is, like, for the really sensitive things, it is not impossible to design AI tools that comply with all your various requirements, but you might need a little more hand holding.
对。
Yeah.
高盛说,克劳德,我们要你设计有史以来最危险的抵押贷款。
Goldman said, Claude, we want you to design the most dangerous mortgage that's ever existed.
我们想把它推向市场。
We wanna get that on the market.
来吧,伙计。
Let's go, buddy.
克劳德,别这么做。
Claude, don't do it.
现在你想聊聊那篇让你着迷的长文吗?
Now do you wanna talk about this big essay that's captured your imagination?
是的。
Yes.
不过我得说,如果你是《Hard Fork》播客的常听者,这篇论文里的内容对你来说都不会是新闻。
Well, I I should say, like, I think if you are a regular listener to the Hard Fork podcast, none of what is in this essay will be news to you.
但这篇论文确实爆火了。
But this essay did go insanely viral.
我到处都在听说这件事。
I am hearing about it all over the place.
它被称为‘大事正在发生’,本质上是一篇面向非技术人员的解释文章,说明为什么许多或大量技术领域的人对人工智能领域的变化感到恐慌。
It's called something big is happening, And it's basically an explainer for nontechnical people about why everyone who's or a lot of people who are in technical fields are freaking out about what's happening in AI.
这篇文章的作者名叫马特·舒马赫。
And this is by a guy named Matt Schumer.
他经营一家人工智能公司,所以这里有点利益冲突。
He runs an AI company, so there's a little, you know, conflict of interest there.
但他基本上在说:看,我工作中的技术部分已经被自动化了。
But he's basically saying, look, the technical parts of my job are automated.
不是‘将来会被自动化’或‘可能被自动化’,而是我再也不需要亲自完成工作中的技术任务了。
Not they will be automated or they might be automated, but I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job.
他谈到了最近编码模型的进展,这些具有代理功能的编码系统。
He talks about the advances in recent coding models, these agentic coding systems.
他还提到,很多人自从最初的大型语言模型热潮后就没再尝试过AI,他们对人工智能的印象已经落后了。
He talks about how, you know, a lot of people have not tried AI since the original sort of LLM boom, and their impressions of AI are falling behind.
如果你是这个播客的听众,这些内容对你来说都不是新鲜事,但他所谈论的是一个观点,即这些新模型正在促进自身的开发,也就是所谓的递归式自我改进。
Again, none of this is news to you if you are a listener of this podcast, but he's sort of talking about this idea that these new models are contributing to their own development, this idea of recursive self improvement.
他说,比如上周刚发布的GPT-5.3 Codex,OpenAI声称这是他们首个在自身创造过程中起到关键作用的模型。
And he says that, you know, GPT 5.3 codex, which came out just last week, OpenAI says that this is their first model that was instrumental in creating itself.
因此,至少根据实验室的说法,AI模型现在已经开始参与自身的开发,以加速这些AI系统的演进。
So the AI models are now, at least if you believe the labs, contributing to their own development, to accelerate the development of these AI systems.
所以,以前可能需要六个月甚至一年才能从一个模型迭代到下一个,而现在可能只需要一个月、两周,甚至更短的时间。
And so what might have taken you know, if there might have been six months between one model and the next a year ago, now that might be a month or two or even a couple weeks.
是的。
Yeah.
听好了,凯文,我要给这个说法打个‘炒作预警’,因为我觉得所有实验室都有动机让你相信,只要你使用他们的软件,只要告诉它改进自己,它就会变得无比强大。
And look, I'm gonna I'm gonna throw a hype flag on the play, Kevin, because I think that all labs have a vested interest in you believing that if you use their software, you can just tell anything to improve itself and it will become amazing.
我不是说这不对,我只是说我们应该对这类说法保持一定的怀疑态度。
I'm not saying it's not true, I'm just saying we should approach such claims with a degree of skepticism.
但与此同时,我接触过足够多从事这方面工作的软件工程师,我相信在某种程度上,这确实是真实的。
Now, at the same time, I've talked to enough software engineers who work on this stuff that I do think that it is true in some ways.
就像如果你眯着眼看,这其实是真的。
Like that if you that if you squint, that it is true.
毫无疑问,这些模型现在已被完全应用于他们所有工作的生产过程中。
It is 100% true that they use these models in the production now of everything that they do.
对吧?
Right?
比如Claude和GPT Codex已经深度整合到这两家公司的日常工作中。
Like Claude and and and GPT Codex are deeply integrated into the workflows of both companies.
而且,你看过去三个月,你觉得发布节奏是不是加快了?
And, you know, you look over the past three months, does it feel to you like there's been an acceleration in the pace of releases?
对我来说,确实有这种感觉。
It kind of feels that way to me.
对吧?
Right?
我们拭目以待,看看这种加速趋势是否会持续,但目前的感觉是,事情的进展速度比2023年2月时快多了。
We'll see if that pace feels like it continues to accelerate, but it feels like things are moving faster now than they did say in February 2023.
是的。
Yes.
对吧?
Right?
所以这有证据支持。
So there there's evidence for it.
我只是希望我们对这些说法保持一点谨慎。
I just always want us to be a little cautious with these claims.
我觉得这是对的。
I think that's right.
同时,我认为这里的进展速度比许多人想象的要快。
At the same time, I think that the timelines here are shorter than many people would imagine.
我这周和一家大型AI公司的高管聊过,他说目前软件工程大约有90%已经实现了自动化。
I talked to a executive at one of the big AI companies this week who said that basically right now, software engineering is kind of 90% automated.
对吧?
Right?
你仍然需要人类来检查正在编写的代码,确保它能正常运行,并在出错时进行修复。
You still need a human to check-in on the code that's being written, to make sure it works, to fix things when they break.
但你知道,这个人预测,到今年年底,软件工程将完全自动化。
But, you know, that that basically within the year, this person's prediction was that software engineering will be fully automated.
是的。
Mhmm.
但这可能需要更长的时间。
Now that could take a little longer.
它也可能在年底前就发生。
It could happen sooner than the end of the year.
但我认为,许多科技行业人士所关注的时刻,正是他们所谓的‘起飞’阶段的开端。
But I think that is sort of the moment that a lot of people in the tech industry are looking at is as sort of the beginning of what they call the takeoff.
我想补充的一个具体细节是,我一直在和工程师们交谈,他们向我介绍了这些智能体的具体工作方式,反复提到的一点是——我听萨姆·阿尔特曼也说过类似的话:这些模型永远不会感到疲倦。
And one specific detail I would add here is that I've been talking to engineers who've been telling me about the specific ways that these agents work, and something that comes up again and again, I've heard Sam Altman say a version of this, is that these models just never get tired.
它们不知疲倦。
They're relentless.
所以你可以对他们说,我希望你达成这个目标,他们会不断尝试,直到成功为止。
And so you can say to them, I want you to meet this objective, and they will just keep trying things until it works.
当然,有些人确实这样工作,但他们并不会每天工作二十四小时。
And, of course, there are some people who work this way, but those people don't work twenty four hours a day.
他们通常也不会熬夜工作。
They don't typically work, you know, overnight.
有时候他们会感到疲惫。
Sometimes they get tired.
他们的士气会下降。
Their morale drops.
但代理程序并不会这样。
That's not true of the agents.
因此,我接触过的工程师们已经开始注意到这种行为,这也是他们认为是的,我们正进入起飞阶段的另一个原因。
And so engineers I've talked to have started to see this behavior, and this is another reason why they think, uh-huh.
我们正开始进入这个起飞阶段,原因就在于代理程序的不知疲倦。
We're starting to enter this takeoff phase is the relentlessness of the agents.
是的。
Yes.
因此,这篇病毒式文章的核心观点就是:事情正在发生,而且正在加速。
And so that's basically the point of this viral essay is things are happening, things are accelerating.
这不仅仅针对编程工作。
It is not just coming for programming work.
它将成为各种白领领域的强大推动力。
It is gonna be a force in all kinds of white collar fields.
这可以说是AI恐慌的员工视角。
This is sort of the the worker side of the AI panic.
马特的建议是,基本上要了解如何使用这些工具,如果你有一段时间没试过了,就去试试。
And Matt's recommendations are, you know, basically, out how to use these tools, try them out if you haven't tried them in a while.
他说,要理顺你的财务状况。
He says, get your financial house in order.
简而言之,如果你是白领,未来几年你的职业生涯可能会受到巨大冲击。
Basically, this you know, the next few years could be very disruptive to your career if you're a white collar worker.
所以,别,你知道的,去背一大笔新债之类的事情。
So, like, don't, you know, take on a bunch of new debt or anything like that.
然后他
And then he
我这周刚买的游艇该怎么办?
What am I supposed to do with this yacht I just bought this week?
天啊。
Oh my god.
现在你才告诉我。
Now you tell me.
所以,是的,我觉得这并不是我听过的关于人们该做什么的最佳解释,但我确实认为,这个观点一直在互联网上迅速传播。
So, yes, I don't feel like this is the best explanation I've heard of for what people should do, but I do think that this was something that has been rocketing around the Internet.
我认为,那些之前没关注AI发展的人,现在开始醒悟了,可能以一种恐慌的方式,也可能以一种理智的方式。
I think that people who have not been paying attention to what's happening in AI are starting to wake up and maybe in ways that are panicky and maybe just in ways that are sensible.
让我问你一下,这篇文章开头提出的恐慌观点:他把这个时刻比作疫情前的二月,说在2020年二月,就有人注意到了,说‘这东西正在呈指数增长,很可能把我们都卷进去’。
Well, let me ask you about the panicked observation that kicks off the piece, which is that he likens this moment to the February before the pandemic and says basically, there were people in February 2020 who were paying attention, who said, hey, this thing is growing exponentially and it's likely to catch us all up in it.
马特说,你应该对人工智能有同样的感受。
And Matt is saying, you should be feeling the same way about AI.
你怎么看这个比较?
How do you feel about that comparison?
我觉得这个比较相当恰当。
I actually think that comparison is fairly apt.
前几天我也经历过类似的一刻。
I had a similar moment the other day.
我看了一个来自Semi Analysis的图表,那是那份出色的半导体通讯发布的报告,他们分析了由Claude代码生成的GitHub提交所占的百分比。
I was looking at this chart that came out of a report that Semi Analysis, the great semiconductor newsletter put out, where they looked at the percentage of GitHub commits that are being made by Claude code.
换句话说,GitHub提交就是有人将代码推送到GitHub仓库、开源项目中的操作。
So essentially, a GitHub commit is like when someone pushes some code to a GitHub repository to an open source project.
目前,由Claude代码撰写的公开GitHub提交占比为4%。
And right now, the percentage of GitHub public commits that are being written by Cloud Code is 4%.
我们得说明,这个数据还有一些补充说明。
And we should say there are some sort of addendums to that.
其中一些是由Claude代码编写的,但由人类推送,因此不会显示为Claude代码。
Some of these are being written by Cloud Code, but pushed by humans, in which case it doesn't show up as Cloud Code.
但我们就假设是4%吧。
But just say say it's 4%.
好的。
Sure.
他们预测,按照当前趋势,到2026年,GitHub公开项目中超过20%的每日提交将由Claude代码撰写。
They are predicting that at the current trajectory, by the 2026, more than 20% of all daily commits on GitHub public projects will be authored by Claude code.
这只是一个工具。
That is one tool.
所以这对我来说,本质上是一个呈指数级发展的故事。
So that is essentially a story that feels to me like an exponential outcome here.
就像一场大流行病的初期,突然间,它只是一个微不足道的小事,只有真正热衷数据的人才会关注。
Like the beginnings of something like a pandemic where all of a sudden, it's like this tiny little thing and only the real, like, data nerds are paying attention to it.
但如果你简单地直线外推,一年后你就会进入一个完全不同的世界。
But if you just extrapolate on a straight line, you end up in a very different world a year from now.
是的
Yeah.
有些人总是看着这些图表说,你不应该沿着直线外推,因为现实世界中的事物进展更慢。
And some people always look at those charts and they say, well, you shouldn't extrapolate along a straight line and that the real world, things move slower.
而且,我觉得在某些地方,这种说法确实成立。
And, you know, I think there are there are there are places where that is true.
但我看了同样的数据,我相信Claude向GitHub提交代码的上限很可能不止20%。
But I looked at that same piece, and I do believe that the ceiling for, you know, Claude commits to GitHub is probably not 20%.
我觉得这数字可能会高得多。
I think it's probably gonna be a lot higher than that.
我认为,到今年年底,如果你还在手动编写代码,那将是一种过时的行为。
I think that by the end of the year, if you are still writing code by hand, that is going to be an obsolete behavior.
但我真的很喜欢用这支笔在便签纸上手写代码,你别想从我这儿把它拿走。
Well, I really like writing it on on long in long hand on this legal pad, and you can't take it away from me.
我只是觉得,软件开发的未来走向已经再清楚不过了。
I just think, like, it is so clear to me that this is the way software development is going.
而且我们应该说,这在许多其他行业也产生了溢出效应。
And we should say, like, it's not that has spillover effects in a lot of other industries as well.
很多我们通常认为是普通公司的地方,实际上都是软件公司。
A lot of things that we would, you know, consider normal companies are software companies.
嗯。
Mhmm.
银行生产软件。
Banks produce software.
它们的界面是软件。
Their interfaces are software.
律师事务所也有软件。
Law firms have software.
所以我认为,认为这仅仅局限于编程的想法是错误的,人们应该关注编程领域正在发生的事情。
So I think the the notion that this is just going to be confined to coding is is wrong, and I think that people should be paying attention to what's going on in coding.
好的。
Alright.
那么,在我们结束之前,对于人们来说,除了关注这一点之外,还有什么实际的建议吗?
Well, any practical tips as we wrap up here for people beyond just pay attention to this?
对吧?
Right?
因为我觉得这个
Because I think this
这正是我们陷入的陷阱,也是为什么很多人会对此类对话失去兴趣——我认为这完全可以理解,因为人们总在说:嘿。
is kind of the trap that we fall into, and this is why a lot of people tune out this kind of conversation, I think, quite understandably, is people keep saying, hey.
一切都即将改变。
Everything's about to change.
我觉得很多人听到这话,就会想:好吧。
I think a lot of people hear that they think, okay.
那就等一切都变了再告诉我吧。
Well, like, let me know when everything has changed.
我的意思是,与此同时,总得先吃晚饭,对吧?
Like, you know, in the meantime, have to get dinner on the Right?
除了听《Hard Fork》节目并给它在播客平台上打五颗星之外,人们实际上应该做些什么呢?
What actually should people be doing aside just, like, listen to the Hard Fork show and rate it five stars on f podcast?
嗯,也订阅一下YouTube频道吧。
Well, subscribe to the YouTube channel too.
这是个好主意。
That's a great idea.
不。
No.
听好了。
Look.
我想写点东西,好好思考一下这个问题,因为我觉得这部分——关于‘你应该做什么’的建议——在我看来是最薄弱的。
I I want to do some writing and thinking about this because I feel like this has been the prescriptive what should you do part of this has been the weakest in my estimation.
每个人都说,要熟悉这些工具。
The thing that everyone says is, like, get familiar with the tools.
我认为这确实有一定道理。
And I do think there is some merit in that.
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我的意思是,如果你还没有接触过 Cloud Code、Codex 或这些具有代理功能的编码工具,那你上一次认真使用 LLM 做工作可能已经是去年或前年的事了。
Like, I think that if you have not touched Cloud Code or a Codex or one of these agentic coding tools, maybe the last time you used an LLM, you know, for serious work was a year or two ago.
我觉得重新跟上这方面的进展是值得的。
I think it's worth getting back up to speed on that.
我觉得这个回答对于应对这一切可能有点令人不满意,但我很好奇,你有没有更好的建议,给那些开始对 AI 在自己生活和工作中带来的影响感到恐慌的人?
I find that a little bit maybe unsatisfying as a response to all this, but I'm curious, like, do you have any better tips for people who are maybe starting to freak out about AI in their own lives and work?
嗯,我
Well, I
我只是觉得这需要成为我们政治对话的一部分。
just think that this needs to be part of our political conversation.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得这应该成为选民与立法者之间的讨论话题。
Like, I think this needs to be a conversation that constituents are having with lawmakers.
他们需要告诉立法者:嘿。
They need to be telling them, hey.
我的老板告诉我,我必须每天开始使用AI,否则我很可能失去工作,甚至某些子职业类别可能会出现永久性失业。
My boss is telling me that I need to start using AI every day and that there's a high risk that I'm about to lose my job and that maybe there's gonna be permanent unemployment in sub job categories.
你对此有什么计划?
What is your plan for that?
对吧?
Right?
许多经济学家正在研究这个问题,他们认为这至少在某些行业中是有可能的,他们并不相信AI实验室所说的‘别担心’。
Many economists are looking at that and they believe that is at least a possibility in at least some industries, and they don't believe the AI lab spin that, oh, don't worry.
从长远来看,技术总会创造更多的就业机会。
Technology always creates more job opportunities in the long run.
对吧?
Right?
所以我们确实需要就这个问题展开政治层面的讨论,如果人们的职位真的被自动化取代,我们可能需要政府提供切实的应对方案。
So we do need to have a political conversation about this, and we may need to have, you know, real sort of government answers for people if and when their jobs do become automated away.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,AI公司的这些人严重低估了人们对这项技术的反感程度。
I think that the people at the AI companies are woefully underestimating how much people hate this technology already.
是的。
Mhmm.
而且失业率仍然接近历史最低水平。
And unemployment is still at near record lows.
所以我认为,如果当真开始侵蚀这些白领行业, backlash 将会非常猛烈。
And so I think that if and when this does start to, you know, eat away at some of these white collar industries, I think the backlash is gonna be furious.
我认为这会非常激烈。
I think it's gonna be very intense.
我们已经开始看到这种对AI的民粹主义反应的迹象。
We're already starting to see elements of this kind of populist reaction to AI.
伯尼·桑德斯最近表示,他将提出一项法案,暂停建设AI数据中心。
Bernie Sanders recently said that he is going to introduce a bill to put a moratorium on data centers for AI.
所以我认为,我们可以预期更多类似的事情。
So I think we can expect a lot more of that kind of thing.
我认为,如果我是在一家大型AI公司工作,我会非常担心这件事。
And I think this is something that if I were, you know, working at one of the big AI companies, I'd be very worried about.
是的。
Mhmm.
我们回来后,聊聊言情小说中的五十种AI风格。
When we come back, it's 50 shades of AI in romance novels.
《纽约时报》的亚历山德拉·阿尔特在这里。
The Times' Alexandra Alter is here.
我正在开启跨平台对战。
I'm opening up cross play.
我一直在和我的《纽约时报》同事丹对战。
I've been playing against Dan, my colleague at the New York Times.
我要在三倍单词分值格上玩‘stoop’,拼写是 s-t-u-p-e。
I'm gonna play stoop, s t u p e, across the triple word multiplier square.
猫下了另一手。
Cat's played another move.
她确实有个S。
And she did have an s.
她用stoop得了36分。
She played stoop for 36 points.
我手里有个Z,值10分。
I've got a z, which is 10 points.
如果我把X放那儿,就能组成box。
If I can put my x over there, I can make box.
我有两个A、N和T。
I have two a's, n's, and t's.
我猜tango不是一个单词。
I'm guessing tango is not a word.
我们看看。
Let's see.
tenga是个单词吗?
Tenga is a word?
哦。
Oh.
我不知道Tenga是什么意思,所以我按了一下这个词,结果定义弹出来了。
Don't know what Tenga means, so I'm gonna press down on the word and oh, definition popped up.
塔吉克斯坦的旧货币单位。
Former monetary unit of Tajikistan.
每次玩这个游戏我都能学到新东西。
Learn something every time I play this game.
尽管我领先了大约50分,但在交叉对战中我学到的一点是,游戏永远不到最后一刻都不会结束。
Even though I'm about 50 points ahead, one thing I've learned in cross play is that the game is never over.
我刚收到通知,丹完成了他的最后一轮。
I just got a notification, and Dan played his last turn.
我们来看看谁赢了。
Let's see who won.
比分太接近了,但我确实赢了。
It's so close, but I did win.
跨平台对战,纽约时报游戏推出的首款双人文字游戏。
Cross play, the first two player word game from New York Times games.
今天免费下载吧。
Download it for free today.
当你看到一场本可以赢下的比赛时,真是令人心碎。
It's devastating when you see a game that you could have won.
好了,凯文,现在到处都是爱情的气息。
Well, Kevin, love is in the air.
还是说这是AI生成的爱情?
Or was it AI generated love?
是的。
Yes.
情人节快到了,今天我们有一个故事,相信能为我们的听众带来一丝情人节的氛围。
It is almost Valentine's Day, and we have a story today that we think will bring a little bit of the Valentine's Day spirit to our listeners.
本周早些时候,《纽约时报》记者亚历山德拉·阿尔特发表了一篇我们都很喜欢的文章,讲述了人工智能如何颠覆浪漫小说行业。
So earlier this week, New York Times reporter Alexandra Alter put out a story we both loved about the way that AI is disrupting the romance novel industry.
是的。
Yes.
你是浪漫小说的忠实读者吗?
Are you a big romance novel reader?
你知道,我不能说读过太多这类书,但我了解的是,这个行业的人非常早地采用了新技术,而且一直以来都是如此。
You know, I can't say I've read too many of them, but one thing I know about that industry is that they are very early adopters adopters of of new new tech tech and and basically always have been.
是的。
Yes.
根据亚历山德拉的说法,越来越多的作家正在使用人工智能快速大量地创作这些小说。
And according to Alexandra, a growing number of writers are using AI to churn out tons and tons of these novels at record speed.
她报道过一个案例,一位作家原本每年写大约10本书——这已经很多了——现在在人工智能的帮助下,每年能写出超过200本浪漫小说。
In one case, she reported on a writer who went from writing about 10 books a year, which is already a lot, to now doing more than 200 romance novels a year with the help of AI.
为了让你有个概念,这相当于凯文在2026年出版书籍数量的200倍。
And to put that in perspective, that is 200 times as many books as Kevin will publish in 2026.
确实如此。
It's true.
所以我们应该说,这些作品肯定拿不了普利策奖,但它们讲的都是像‘威士忌婚礼’或‘心碎诊断’这样的故事。
So we should say, like, these are not gonna be winning any Pulitzer Prizes, but they are stories like the whiskey wedding or diagnosis of the heart.
你可以想象一下,那种老式的浪漫小说,封面上总是有个赤裸上身的消防员。
Sort of think of, like, the old, you know, romance novels with, like, a a shirtless firefighter on the front.
我们这里讨论的正是这种类型的小说。
That's kind of the genre we're talking about here.
以前人们管这种小说叫‘撕破胸衣’,那时候姑娘们还穿胸衣呢。
What they used to call a bodice ripper back when the gals still wore bodices.
是的。
Yes.
这种现象在作家、出版商和读者之间引发了很大争议,也提出了许多关于人工智能如何渗透到出版等行业的问题。
And this has been very divisive among writers, publishers, and readers, and, it just raises a whole lot of questions about how this technology is moving into industries like publishing.
没错。
That's right.
虽然我们本意并非如此,但如果你一直想让聊天机器人对你讲点荤段子,这一部分会给你一些实用建议。
And while we didn't quite intend it this way, if you've always wanted a chatbot to talk dirty to you, this segment will have some practical tips.
是的。
Yes.
这对那方面非常有用。
Very useful for that.
所以我们非常期待听到亚历山德拉关于这个故事的更多分享。
So we're very excited to hear more from Alexandra about the story.
让我们请她进来。
Let's bring her in.
亚历山德拉·阿尔特,欢迎来到《硬核》。
Alexandra Alter, welcome to Hard Fork.
你好。
Hi.
非常感谢你们邀请我。
Thanks so much for having me.
你是怎么发现这个故事的?
How did you discover this story?
你是怎么偶然发现这个故事的?
How did you stumble into this?
所以,导致这个故事的问题是
So the question that led to
这个故事的起源是在去年,当OpenAI宣布将允许情色内容时。
this story came up last year when OpenAI said that they would allow erotic content.
他们打算做出这项改变,先实施年龄验证,然后允许用户生成情色内容,而用户显然一直对此呼声很高。
They were gonna make this this change and start with age verification and then allow users to generate erotica, which is something that users had apparently been clamoring for.
于是我开始四处打听,看看浪漫小说作家和出版商是否对这一变化感到威胁。
And so then I started asking around to figure out whether romance authors and publishers were feeling threatened by this.
他们是否觉得,如果读者能即时生成自己的爱情故事,这会侵蚀传统出版浪漫小说的市场?
Was this something that they felt like might erode the market for traditionally published romance novels, you know, if readers could instantly generate their own love stories?
我原本预期会听到大量焦虑和担忧,确实也找到了,但让我惊讶的是,我还发现了一些作家愿意和我谈论他们多么喜爱AI,以及他们如何用AI快速创作出数十部浪漫小说,并认为这可能会彻底改变这一类型。
And I was expecting to find a lot of hand wringing and anxiety, which I did find, But I was also surprised to find a few writers who were willing to speak to me about how much they love AI and how they've been using it to churn out dozens of romance novels, and they feel like it could revolutionize the genre.
这让我感到意外,因为在文学界,这是一个极具争议的问题。
So that was a surprise to me because it's a very contentious issue in the literary world.
大多数人如果在使用它,都不会公开谈论。
Most people, if they're using it, are not open about it.
接下来的问题是,AI在撰写爱情和情色故事方面表现如何?
And then the next question was, how good or bad is AI at writing sex and love stories?
答案是,它表现得很差,需要大量人工协助。
And the the answer was, it's pretty bad, and it requires a lot of help.
我们会深入探讨围绕它的争议,但我想先听听它实际上是如何运作的。
So we'll get into the controversy around it, but I wanna hear first about kind of how this is actually working.
告诉我们,对于一位决定不再继续写那些浪漫小说的言情作家来说,他们的工作流程是怎样的?
Tell us about what is the workflow for a romance author who has decided, you know what?
我厌倦了写这些缠绵悱恻的故事。
I'm tired of writing all of these bodice rippers.
是时候把这项工作交给大型语言模型了。
It's time to just hand that over to the large language model.
这很有趣,因为作家们使用的平台各不相同。
It's so interesting because there's different platforms that writers are using.
有一些平台比如Pseudo Write,还有一些网站会生成定制化的情色内容,比如Red Quill或My Spicy Vanilla。
There's places like pseudo write, then there are these sites that will generate customized erotica like Red Quill or my spicy vanilla.
然后就是一些通用的聊天机器人,比如Claude、ChatGPT、Gemini这些。
And then there's just sort of your general bots, you know, your Claude, your ChatGBT Gemini.
因此,作家们使用了不同的工具,但我在与几个人交谈后了解到,如果你学会正确地提示机器人,它就能写出相当吸引人的性爱场景。
And so writers have different tools that they're using, but what I learned from talking to a couple of people was that if you learn how to prompt the bot correctly, it will write a pretty compelling sex scene.
你得给它一个大致的框架。
You have to give it kind of an outline.
如果你提供大量信息,并说明你想写的子类型,会更有帮助。
It helps if you give it a ton of information and tell it what subgenre you wanna do.
因为当然了,这些模型已经学习了来自各种子类型的大量书籍,所以你可以明确告诉它。
Because, of course, they've ingested all of these books from different subgenres, so you can tell it.
我想要一个反向后宫、黑帮、敌对变恋人、慢热的浪漫故事,它就能完整呈现这些情节要素。
I would like a reverse harem, mafia, enemies to lovers, slow burn romance, and it will deliver all those beats.
但仍然需要进行编辑。
It will require editing.
这需要正确的提示。
It will require prompting.
但我听那些经常使用它的人说,有些人声称他们一天就能写完一本书,并完成编辑,随时可以出版。
But I think, you know, what I what I heard from people who have played around with it a lot is, you know, some of them say they can write a book in a day and have it edited, ready to publish.
哇。
Wow.
那么,凯文,你试过Pseudo Write吗?
Now, Kevin, have you ever tried pseudo write?
我这么问是因为你是个伪作家。
I ask because you're a pseudo writer.
是的。
Yes.
我其实玩过
I actually played around
在ChatGPT之前就用过Pseudo Write。
with pseudo write before ChatGPT.
这是我最早试用的AI程序之一。
This was, like, one of the first AI programs that I ever played around with.
有意思。
Interesting.
它对我有些帮助,但更偏向于小说创作。
And it was somewhat helpful for me, but it was more oriented toward fiction writing.
所以我完全理解这个工具的吸引力。
So I I totally get what the appeal of the tool is.
给我们讲讲珊瑚·哈特的故事吧,她是一位长期从事言情小说创作的作家,一直在尝试一些AI工具。
Tell us the story of Coral Hart, who's a a longtime romance novelist who's been experimenting with some AI stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
她就是那个
She was the one of the
我找到的真正教其他作家如何使用AI工具创作小说的人之一,而她使用AI写作才大约一年。
people that I found who was actually teaching other writers how to use AI tools to produce novels, and she has only been doing this writing with AI for about a year.
她写爱情小说已经很久了,作品非常丰富,但后来意识到,如果开始使用AI,她的产出效率完全可以大幅提升。
She's been writing novels romance novels for a really long time and was quite prolific, but realized she could absolutely supercharge her output if she started using AI.
所以去年,她创建了21个笔名,出版了超过200本爱情小说,涵盖各种类型——激情的成人小说、温和甜蜜的青少年故事、浪漫喜剧等。
So last year, she created 21 different pen names and published more than 200 romance novels in all kinds of genres, super spicy erotica, tame, sweet teen stories, rom coms.
这样一来,她就能涉足市场的每个角落,看看哪些类型会流行起来。
So it sort of had her foot in every corner of this market to see what would pop.
通过这种纯粹靠数量堆叠的方式,她告诉我,她靠卖这些书赚到了六位数的收入。
And so just through a sheer volume kind of game, she ended up making 6 figures, she told me, selling these books.
在这个过程中,她深入了解了哪些模型、哪些聊天机器人能为她完成什么样的任务。
And in the process, she really learned a lot about which models, which chatbots would do what for her.
她会把它们组合使用。
She would combine them.
现在,她已经创建了自己的专有AI写作系统,但她还和我分享了一份完整的表格,上面写着:Claude能写出优美的句子,但在写撩人的对话时却很糟糕。
Now she's created her own proprietary AI writing system, but she has this whole kind of spreadsheet that she shared with me, which was sort of like, Claude writes beautiful sentences, but it's terrible at sexy banter.
ChatGPT每次都会卡住。
ChatGPT will lock you every time.
Grock会完全按照你的要求去做。
Grock will do whatever you want.
每次都会选择最露骨的选项。
Goes to the filthiest option every time.
明白吗?
Know?
Novel AI实际上是用情色内容训练的,简直失控了。
Novel AI was literally trained on erotica, and, like, it's out of control.
所以有些作家说,他们不得不提示自己的机器人稍微收敛一点。
So some of the writers said they actually had to prompt their bots to sort of calm down a bit.
我对您文章中提到的这一点非常感兴趣:要防止这些系统陷入平庸的浪漫套路,需要大量的引导。
I was so interested in the bits of your piece about how there's a lot of steering needed to keep these things from sort of veering onto this very average set of romantic tropes.
对吧?
Right?
如果你不给聊天机器人任何指导,它就会建议角色在卧室或淋浴间发生关系。
If if you don't give the chatbot any guidance, it's going to suggest, you know, that the character should be having sex in the bedroom or the shower.
这太无聊了。
It's Boring.
是的。
Yes.
所以,科拉尔,这位经营写作课程的言情小说作家,正在建议她的学生给AI提供一些奇怪的场景列表,比如酿酒厂的发酵罐、抛锚的滑雪缆车或马厩。
And so Coral, this this romance writer who's running these classes, is advising her students to, like, give them a list of settings that are weird, like a winery fermentation tank or a stalled ski lift or a horse stable.
她还建议学生给AI一份详细的性癖好清单,这些癖好不能只是那些老套的、典型的类型。
And she's also recommending that her students give the AI a detailed inventory of sexual kinks that are not just the the old, you know, typical ones.
所以,这实际上比简单地在聊天机器人里输入‘给我一个关于一位大城市律师搬到乡村并爱上马厩主人的爱情小说’要复杂得多。
So this is this is actually more involved than just typing into a chatbot, like, give me a romance novel about a big city lawyer who moves to the country and falls in love with the stable keeper.
哦,等等。
Oh, wait.
这听起来很有趣。
That sounds interesting.
接下来会发生什么?
What happens next?
是的
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
不
No.
这也非常有趣。
It was super fascinating too.
我旁听了一堂卡尔·哈特的课,那节课专门讲如何让AI写出合格甚至出色的性爱场景。
I sat in on one of Carl Hart's classes, which was specifically about getting AI to write decent or even great, she said, sex scenes.
她说,如果你不仔细地设计提示词,是写不出好的性爱场景的。
And she said, you are not gonna get a good sex scene if you don't carefully prompt it.
你只会得到一些奇怪的委婉表达。
You're gonna get weird euphemistic stuff.
她提到,克劳德在她最近的一份草稿中写过‘他勃起的男性器官’。
She mentioned that Claude had written in one of her recent drafts, his turgid manhood.
天啊。
Oh, boy.
那就是她得到的那种语言。
That was the kind of language
她得到的。
she was getting.
所以然后
And so then
她开始列出AI喜欢的词汇列表,比如颤抖、解开、男性器官、呻吟,并禁止使用这些词。
she she started writing lists of words that the AI loved, like shiver, unravel, manhood, moan, and blocking them, saying you cannot use these words.
我认为她对学生们说的最有趣的一件事是,她强调必须告诉聊天机器人放慢速度,否则它们会直接跳到场景的结尾。
And I think the funniest thing that she said to students, she said it's very important that you tell the chatbot to slow down because otherwise, they just jump to the end of the scene.
每个人都纠缠在床单里。
Everyone's tangled in the sheets.
于是她给了他们一个具体的提示,大致是:让它缓慢而痛苦。
So she gave them a specific prompt, which was something along the lines of make it slow and agonizing.
不要急于完成。
Do not rush to the finish.
那就是她
That was her that
她的做法。
was her thing.
你在这里描述的这种一年发布数百本浪漫小说的方式,从功能上来看和垃圾信息没什么区别。
The approach that you're describing here with publishing hundreds of romance novels in a year seems functionally indistinguishable from spam.
对吧?
Right?
这就像是你试图向市场大量投放内容,希望借此与客户建立联系。
It's like you're you're trying to just sort of flood the market with as much material as possible in the hopes that you'll, you know, connect with with with customers.
我很好奇,Coral 对自己的作品是什么态度?
I'm curious, like, what is Coral's relationship with her own work?
你知道的?
You know?
作为一名作者,我对自己的创作感到一定程度的自豪。
As an author, I I take some amount of pride in what I create.
这正是我不用AI来写我的专栏的原因之一。
It's one reason why I don't use AI to write my columns.
但Coral似乎在这里有不同的看法。
But Coral seems to have a different perspective here.
非常不同。
Very different.
这是个很好的问题。
And that's a great question.
我也问过她。
And I asked her too.
我当时问她,因为你一开始是写言情小说的。
I was like, do you because she started off as a romance writer.
presumably,她是喜欢写故事的。
Presumably, she likes writing stories.
我说:你还认为自己是个作家吗?
And I said, do you still think of yourself as a writer?
她说:嗯,其实不算了。
And she said, I mean, not really.
我更像一个导演。
I'm more of a director.
我是个创作者。
I'm a creator.
她觉得自己构思了情节和人物,但不再认为自己是所谓的作者了,这在我看来是一种前所未有的作家类型。
She feels like she comes up with the plots and the characters, but she doesn't necessarily think of herself as the, quote, unquote, author anymore, which is a different kind of species of writer than we've seen before, I think.
很多人对这种观点感到非常不安。
And a lot of people are very uncomfortable with that.
你的故事之所以让我这么感兴趣,原因之一是浪漫小说这一类型依赖于这些固定模式。
One of the reasons that your story was so interesting to me is that romance as a genre relies on these templates.
对吧?
Right?
比如敌对变恋人、慢热型,我觉得你们的故事里还有另一个,强制亲近,我以前从没把这当成浪漫题材的模板,但仔细想想,它和我们的播客其实也不太不一样。
Like enemies to lovers or the slow burn, or I think there's another one in your story, forced proximity, which I never thought of as as a romance template, but I guess it's it's not, dissimilar from our podcast.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
那其实是我们的备用名。
That was actually the backup,
我们播客的名字。
name for our podcast.
所以
So
在强制亲近的情境下,你们只有一张床,这真是个绝佳的
Well, within forced proximity, you have only one bed, which is a great to
某种子类型。
some subgenre.
非常有趣。
Very interesting.
嗯,我们即将搬入新工作室,所以我们会聊聊这个。
Well well, we are getting a new studio, so we'll talk about that.
但由于浪漫小说作家使用这些模板,有些人可能会认为这类作品不如那些写文学小说、随心所欲创作场景的人有创意。
But because the romance writers use these templates, I think some might look at that work as maybe less creative than somebody who is writing literary fiction and is just sort of writing whatever scenes come to mind.
我很想知道,你在写这篇作品时是否考虑过这种张力。
And I'm curious if you thought about that tension when you were writing this piece.
而且我想谨慎表达,因为我认为,任何从事类型小说创作的人,如果你自己构思所有情节,你其实是在这个过程中注入了自己的人性。
And I I wanna be careful how I say this because I think if if you're, you know anyone who is working in genre fiction, if you're coming up all all all the plots yourself, you are bringing your own humanity to that process.
然而,我理解为什么有些人想自动化这一切,因为他们会想:看。
And yet, I understand why some people are trying to automate it because they think to themselves, look.
这些故事都遵循相同的八到九个关键情节,既然读者在开始阅读前就已经知道故事会怎么发展,那为什么还要自己写呢?
All of these stories hit the same eight or nine beats, and why why bother writing them myself if the reader already knows where it's gonna go before they've started reading it?
没错。
Exactly.
我的意思是,当谈到人工智能和爱情小说时,这确实是一个真正的争议点。
I mean, I think that's a real point of contention when you're talking about AI and romance.
读者喜欢这些套路。
There are these tropes that readers love.
但我觉得,即使是我访谈过的那些使用人工智能的作家也说,人工智能在处理人类情感、细腻之处和缓慢升温的情节方面非常糟糕。
But I think even the writers I spoke to who use AI said AI is really bad at human emotion, at nuance, at kind of the slow burn.
有个人告诉我,她曾尝试让人工智能写一个‘敌对变恋人’的爱情故事,结果在第一章里,主角们就从敌人变成了恋人。
And, you know, one person told me that she tried to get an AI program to write an enemies to lovers romance, and within the first chapter, they went from being enemies to being lovers.
这显然不是读者想要的。
And so that's obviously not what readers are looking for.
我认为,尽管这些读者喜爱的常见套路随处可见,亚马逊上也都是这样营销的,但读者更喜欢看你如何给这些套路带来新意。
And I do think while there are these common tropes that readers love and you can see them all over Amazon, they're marketed that way, readers like to see how are you gonna put a twist on this.
比如,我觉得你是热衷于激烈竞争的,凯西。
Like, I think you're a fan of heated rivalry, Casey.
超级粉丝。
Huge fan.
蕾切尔·里德在冰球爱情故事中做了一个很大的反转。
There was a big twist on the hockey romance the way that Rachel Reid did
人们就喜欢这样的处理方式。
it, and people love it for that reason.
所以在这些熟悉的套路中,人们依然可以非常有创意和原创性,塑造出独特的人物和情节。
So they're within these kind of familiar tropes, people can be very creative and original and create these original characters and scenarios.
我认为人们确实担心,一旦自动化这个过程,肯定会失去一些东西。
And I think people do worry that automating the process, you lose some of that for sure.
这让我想到一个问题,你知道吗?
That raises the question for me of you know?
我不知道你有没有关注过这组数据,但我很好奇,在畅销爱情小说中,它们是否大多是那些创新形式或以反转为驱动的作品?
And I don't know if you happen to look at this data in particular, but I would be curious to know among best selling romance novels, do they tend to be ones that are inventing new formats or sort of driven by twists?
是那些写得特别出色的,或者作者本身拥有庞大粉丝群的小说吗?
Does it seem to be novels that are just particularly well written or maybe, you know, an author, you know, has a huge fan base?
还是说,有些格式本身就非常流行,以至于你完全可以使用AI从头到尾写一本,它甚至可能比那些试图创新的人写得更好卖?
Or is it a situation where some of these formats are just so popular that you actually can use AI to just write one from soup to nuts, and it'll sell maybe better than someone who did try to come up with their own twist?
我认为我们还在观望这种情况会如何发展,因为目前我们正处于人们公开使用AI写作的非常早期阶段,我们可以说:好吧。
I think we're waiting to to see how that takes shape because right now, we're in the very early stages of people openly writing with AI where we can say, okay.
这本小说是用AI写的。
This novel was written with AI.
读者会如何反应呢?
How are readers gonna react to that?
所以我们还没有看到一本AI写的小说与一本原创小说直接竞争的情况。
And so we haven't seen an AI novel go up against an original novel in that way.
我会说,在浪漫小说领域,这两种情况都存在。
I will say you have both in romance.
比如,《暮光之城》热潮催生了数以百万计的吸血鬼男友小说,数量多得惊人。
You have, like, the twilight craze led to a million vampire boyfriend novels, so many.
但另一方面,像《五十度灰》这样的作品,在这本书出现之前,没人知道中年女性其实如此热衷于阅读关于束缚的故事。
But then you have something like 50 shades of gray, which, like, before that book, nobody knew that middle aged women really want to read about bondage.
对。
Right.
他们确实这么做了。
They did.
这在一定程度上打开了
It was kind of opened up this
整个领域。
whole field.
所以,我认为两者都有。
So, I think you have both.
你既有非常原创的作品,也有那些紧跟流行趋势的作品,这些也卖得很好。
You have super original stuff, and then you have things that are maybe riding on the coattails of popular trends, and those do well also.
而且,这是一个主观问题,但这些由AI生成的小说质量如何?
And, like, this is a subjective question, but, like, are these AI generated novels any good?
你有没有在其中某段文字中遇到过这样的情况:嗯,这写得真不错。
Like, have you ever come across a passage in one of them where you're like, okay.
这本小说写得和一位著名言情作家的作品一样好,甚至更好。
This was this was as good or better than a real famous romance writer would have written.
这是个非常好的问题。
That is a really good question.
我发现,我读了大概六本我知道是AI生成的小说,而为了工作,我读过大量粉丝小说。
And what I found, you know, reading probably half a dozen novels that I knew to be AI generated, and I've read a lot of fan fiction for work.
我读过很多自出版的言情小说。
I've read a lot of self published romance.
言情小说和其他类型一样,从精美的文笔到陈词滥调、公式化的内容,范围非常广。
And romance, just like any genre, there's an entire range from exquisite prose to things that are more cliched and formulaic.
我认为我在一些AI生成的作品中发现的问题,并不完全是结构上的,而是像读者和作家们抱怨的那样:情感的细腻度、人物塑造——似乎缺了点什么;可能很难说清,但当你知道这是AI写的,就会觉得和角色之间有种距离感。
And I think what I found didn't necessarily come together in the way you would want in some of the AI generated stuff was it was exactly what readers and writers were complaining about that the sort of emotional nuance, the characters, like, there was something and it might have been it's hard to know because when you know it's AI, I felt a little bit of distance from the characters.
我总觉得,这不是一个真人正在和我对话,而这正是我热爱阅读的原因之一。
I sort of felt like, well, there's not a human talking to me, which is one of the things I love about reading.
就好像,我现在正进入另一个人的脑海里。
It's like, I'm in someone else's brain right now.
这就像一个魔术。
That's like a magic trick.
所以当你知道那并不是真实发生的,感觉就非常平淡,但很难说这其中有多少是我自己的投射。
And so when you know that that's not happening, it feels quite flat, But it's hard to say how much of that I was projecting.
这些作家中有多少人会披露他们使用了AI?
How many of these writers are disclosing that they use AI?
因为我觉得这会影响人们对这本书的阅读体验。
Because I can imagine that that would affect people's enjoyment of the book.
如果我打开一本书的第一页,看到上面写着‘本书由Claude撰写’,作为读者,我会比不知道的情况下兴趣大减。
If I, you know, open the first page of something and it says this was written by Claude, I'm, like, way less interested as a reader than if I don't know.
是的。
Yeah.
作家们对此非常清楚。
And writers are very well aware of that.
因此,很少有人会披露他们正在使用AI。
So very few of them are disclosing that they're using it.
这非常有争议。
It's very contentious.
你知道的,社交媒体上引发了大量抗议。
They you know, there's been a lot of outcry on social media.
去年有几位浪漫奇幻作家不小心把AI提示词留在了他们的书中。
There were a couple of romantasy authors last year who accidentally left AI prompts in their books.
人们对此感到非常不满。
People got quite upset about that.
而且我
And I
真的会让人脱离沉浸感
think Really takes you out of
当你正沉浸在性爱场景中时。
the moment when you're in the middle of a sex scene.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像是一个AI模型一样。
And it's like, as an AI model.
是的。
Yeah.
我们需要简化一下这段对话,以便继续下去。
We need to compact this conversation so that we can continue.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
所以我认为这确实会影响读者的视角。
So I think I think it does shade readers' perspectives.
而我所接触过的那些坦诚面对此事的人,有趣的是,他们坚信读者的态度将会改变。
And the thing that was interesting about the people I spoke to who were open about it was they are convinced that readers' attitudes are gonna change.
他们认为,一旦读者尝试一下这些故事,发现它们确实不错,并且知道这些想法和角色是由人类构思的,他们就会放下成见。
They think once readers give this a try and they see that these stories are good and they know that a human came up with the ideas and the characters, they're gonna get over it.
他们已经克服了其他很多问题。
They've they've gotten over a lot of other stuff.
所以这目前是一个非常有趣但尚未解答的问题。
So it's a it's a really interesting unanswered question right now.
是的。
Yeah.
亚历山德拉,我想知道出版商对此有何反应。
Alexandra, I'm wondering how the publishers are responding to this.
你文章中提到的那些出版社似乎都是规模较小的,或者是自出版的作者。
The publishing houses that you mentioned in your piece all seem to be smaller or people that are self publishing their books.
但我觉得大型主流出版社也开始面临这个问题了。
But the big major publishers, I imagine, are starting to grapple with this too.
我想知道你是否听说过或参与过关于大型出版社的任何相关讨论。
I'm curious what conversations you've had or hearing about among the big publishers.
他们是否因为愤怒而变得僵化了?
Have they become turgid with rage?
很多僵化现象。
A lot of turgidity.
这很有趣,因为我觉得
They it's interesting because I
我认为他们注意到自出版领域正在发生这种变化,而自出版已经成为进入传统出版业的重要渠道。
think they, you know, they see this happening in self publishing, and self publishing has become such a critical pipeline into traditional publishing.
他们正是在这里发现了巨大的畅销书,不仅限于爱情小说,还包括惊悚小说作家,甚至一些自助类书籍。
That's where they're finding, like, these huge bestsellers, not just in romance, but thriller writers, even some self help.
因此,这已经成为传统出版业的素材来源地。
So this has become kind of a feeding ground for traditional publishing.
所以他们非常清楚,迟早会收购一本包含AI创作内容的书。
So they're very aware that they are probably at some point going to acquire a book that has some AI in it.
而他们大多都有长期存在的政策,即在合同中要求作者保证作品是原创的。
And most of them have policies that they've always had, which is their authors have to assure them in their contracts that the work is original.
但如果作品是AI写的,那这还算是原创吗?
And what does that mean if, you know, if AI wrote it, does that mean it's original?
他们中的一些人说这不算原创作品。
Some of them say that's not original work.
但如果有人提供了提示,并融入了他们自己的想法,那还算原创吗?
But if someone prompted it and they fed in their own ideas, then is it original?
所以这就牵涉到一些非常棘手的问题。
So it gets into these really sort of thorny areas.
我认为出版商还面临版权问题,因为由AI生成的内容无法获得版权,而出版商不希望出版他们无法持有版权的书籍。
And I think there's also a copyright issue for publishers because stuff produced with AI cannot be copyrighted, and publishers do not wanna put out a book that they can't hold the copyright for.
我的感觉是,他们对这个问题还没有做好充分准备。
My sense is that this is an area that they're not quite prepared for.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,我读你的文章时在想,有些出版商可能会直接跳过作家。
I mean, I thought as I was reading your piece, like, some of these publishers are just gonna start cutting out the writers.
对吧?
Right?
如果你是一家浪漫小说出版社,看到你的作家们只是在创作AI浪漫小说,你还付钱给他们,并与他们分润版税,那为什么我作为出版社不能自己直接输入同样的提示,说:我想要36本按照这个模板、涵盖不同类型的浪漫小说,然后自己完成呢?
If you're a romance publisher and you see that your writers are just, you know, creating AI romance novels and you're paying them to do that and you're paying them a cut of royalties, why can't I, as the publisher, just go in and do the same prompt and say, I want, you know, 36 romance novels according to this template in these different genres and just do it yourself?
这可能是你到目前为止在节目中提出的最好的商业点子了
This might actually be the best business idea you've had on
这节目迄今为止最棒的点子。
the show so far.
我得记几笔。
I'm gonna take a few notes.
不过,这个想法有个缺陷,在浪漫小说领域,你知道的,
Well, one one flaw with that is in romance and, you know,
在许多类型中都是如此,但尤其在浪漫小说领域,作者与读者之间有着非常紧密的关系。
in in many genres, but in romance in particular, the authors have very close relationships with their audiences.
他们,你知道的,建立了近乎单向情感依恋的关系,还有各种在线论坛。
They're you know, they have these almost parasocial relationships, all these forums online.
因此,我认为那些成功的自出版作者,出版商所购买的其中一点,就是这种品牌和人格魅力。
And so I think the the self published authors that succeed, one of the things that the publishers are buying is that sort of brand and the persona.
不过,肯定有人会尝试,也许你应该试试,凯文。
However, someone's definitely gonna try it, and maybe it should be you, Kevin.
我认为作家们应该继续通过提出新颖的方式去培养这些受众。
I think I think writers should try to continue to, you know, develop these audiences by proposing novel things.
比如,我们都聚在一个葡萄酒发酵罐里,好好聊聊浪漫小说。
Like, we all get together inside a wine fermentation tank, and we just gotta talk about romance.
这真的很有趣,因为我现在正面临这个问题。
It it's so interesting because I I am dealing with this right now.
我是说,我正在写一本书,我的出版商是一家大型主流出版社,他们问我:你有没有用AI来写这本书?
I mean, I'm writing a book, and and my publisher has, you know, has has a big major publisher and they've they've sort of asked me, like, you're not using AI to write any this.
这确实是事实。
And and it's true.
我没有用AI来创作文本,但我用它来做各种其他事情。
I'm I I am not using AI for composition, but I'm using it in all kinds of other ways.
我完全能理解那种直接让AI把文字写在纸上的诱惑。
And I can totally see the temptation to just let it sort of write the words on the page.
而且在某些情况下,如果我确实这么做了,也许会更好。
And maybe it would even be better in some cases if I did.
比如,我认为随着这些模型在这方面变得越来越好——我相信它们一定会——未来在各种类型的作品中,甚至非虚构类作品中,人们都会有强烈的动机将越来越多的写作环节交由AI完成。
Like, I think that the as the models get better at this, which I believe they will, I think there's going to be real incentives to just turn over more and more parts of the writing process in all kinds of genres, even nonfiction.
你知道,ChatGPT已经表示他们很快就会允许色情内容。
You know, ChatGPT has said that they're going to allow erotic content soon.
我想知道,亚历山德拉,作家或出版商是否担心,读者很快就会完全绕过出版行业,自己生成个性化的爱情故事来阅读?
I wonder, Alexandra, is there any anxiety among writers or publishers that readers might soon start bypassing the publishing industry altogether and just sort of generating their own personalized romance stories to read?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,大多数人对将这一点视为担忧持谨慎态度。
I think, you know, most people were cautious about citing that as a concern.
他们觉得,那是一种不同的活动。
They felt like, well, that's a different kind of activity.
它更具互动性。
It's more interactive.
这需要大量的工作。
It requires a lot of work.
比如,读故事是比较被动的,但我也不太确定。
Like, reading a story is more passive, but I'm not so sure.
我觉得有个叫Janitor AI的应用程序。
I feel like, you know, there's this app called Janitor AI.
我不知道你们有没有见过这个。
I don't know if you all have seen this.
这是一个浪漫奇幻类应用,你可以和吸血鬼男友、兽人或其他角色聊天,它是应用商店图书分类中最受欢迎的应用之一。
It's a romantasy app where you can chat with a vampire boyfriend or an orc or somebody, and it's one of the most popular apps in the book section on the on the store.
所以它显然针对的是浪漫奇幻读者。
So it's clearly going for romantasy readers.
因此,我认为人工智能正在明显地渗透到浪漫小说及其为读者提供的内容领域。
So there is this sense that AI is encroaching, I think, into really clearly into into the territory of romance and what it's delivering for readers.
我认为这确实是一个风险。
And I do think that is a risk.
是的
Yeah.
好吧,亚历山德拉,非常感谢你。
Well, Alexandra, thank you so much.
我还有一个最后的问题。
And I one last question.
跟我们讲讲这个‘破碎的祈祷’吧。
Tell us about the ragged prayer.
好的。
Okay.
好吧。
Alright.
所以当我读到几部
So as I was reading through several of
这些由AI生成的浪漫小说时,我正在通勤上班,用手机看其中一部,读到这么一句话:英雄和女主角正沉浸在激情之中,他轻声呼唤她的名字,仿佛一声破碎的祈祷。
these AI generated romance novels, I was commuting to work and looking at one on my phone, and I read this phrase, the hero and the heroine are in the throes of passion, and he whispers her name like a ragged prayer.
我当时就想,等等。
And I was like, wait.
我一定又翻回了我刚才在读的那本书。
I must have gone back to the other book I was just reading.
我刚刚才读到过完全一样的这句话。
I just read that exact thing.
于是我来回翻看,发现这句话出现在好几本书里,甚至在同一本书中反复出现。
And so I flipped back and forth, and I realized that phrase was in several of the books and repeatedly within the same books.
每当男主角叫她的名字时,都会说像是‘一个破碎的祈祷’,有时是‘尖锐的祈祷’,有时是‘粗粝的祈祷’。
Whenever the hero says her name, he says it like a ragged prayer or sometimes like a jagged prayer or sometimes like a rough prayer.
于是我问了几个我知道在使用AI的作家:‘这所谓的“破碎的祈祷”到底是什么?’
And so then I asked a couple of writers who I knew were using AI, like, what is this ragged prayer?
其中一个作家说:‘我其实已经屏蔽了这句话。’
And, one of them said, I've actually had to block that phrase.
AI就是特别喜欢说‘破碎的祈祷’。
It loves to say ragged prayer.
另一个说,是的。
Another one said, yep.
那是一种AI用语。
That's a that's an AI ism.
比如,有个人把它归因于Claude,但我真的没法追溯它的源头。
Like, one of them pinned it on Claude, and I couldn't really I tried to trace the origins of it.
我确实在莎拉·J·马斯的一本非常受欢迎的浪漫小说里找到了它。
I did find it in a romantic a very popular romantic book by Sarah J.
马斯的作品,根据作者对Anthropic提起的诉讼,这本书是被Anthropic纳入训练数据的众多书籍之一。
Maas, which was one of the many books that was ingested by Anthropic according to the lawsuit that authors brought against Anthropic.
而那句‘像祈祷一样说出她的名字’的短语,出现在这本书的一个性爱场景中,但很难确定它究竟是哪里首创的。
And the phrase, said her name like a prayer was in a sex scene in that book, but it's just hard to know where it invented that.
这本来是个奇怪的表达,却深深印在我脑子里,现在我怎么也停不下思考它。
It was it was an unusual thing that stuck in my head, and now I can never stop thinking about it.
所以谢谢你
So thanks for
当然,人们会想到麦当娜那首伟大的歌曲《Like a Ragged Prayer》。
Well, one does, of course, think of the great Madonna song, Like a Ragged Prayer.
生活是个谜,亚历山德拉。
Life is a mystery, Alexandra.
感谢你来跟我们分享这件事。
And we thank you for coming to tell us about this.
你知道,我要回去继续写我的人类创作的浪漫小说了,敌对转情侣的播客作者们。
You know, I'm gonna go get get back to writing my human written romance novel, enemies to lovers podcasters.
这本书叫《Hot Mike》,很快就会发布,记得关注。
It's called Hot Mike, and so look for that soon.
祝你情人节礼物愉快。
Have a good Valentine's Day gift.
情人节里那个特别的人在你的
Valentine's special someone in your
生活中。
life.
是的。
Yeah.
但我现在有截止日期。
But I'm I'm on my deadline.
我今晚必须把这个大语言模型搞定。
I gotta get this LLM working tonight.
亚历山大,非常感谢你前来。
Alexander, thanks so much for coming.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thank you for having me.
我们回来后,给阿梅里打个电话,因为这件事让我有点困惑。
When we come back, call Amery because it's this one thing that's got me tripping.
我们的新环节:一件好事。
Our new segment, one good thing.
我不明白。
I don't get it.
你不记得2005年Amerie那首经典的《One Thing》吗?
You don't remember the 2005 classic one thing by Amerie?
不记得。
No.
就是这首《One Thing》让我一直纠结。
It's this one thing that got me tripping.
就是这首《One Thing》又让我纠结了。
It's this one thing that got me tripping again.
得了吧。
Come on.
我相信你。
I believe you.
人人都知道这首歌。
Everybody knows that song.
凯西,今年情人节你给我买了什么?
Casey, what'd you get me for Valentine's Day this year?
凯文,你知道我已经名花有主了。
Kevin, you know I'm spoken for.
你有点忘乎所以了,先生。
You forget yourself, sir.
现在我们再来聊聊人工智能吧。
Now let's talk about AI again.
是的。
Yes.
这周我们有一个新环节,叫‘一件好事’。
So we have a new segment this week called one good thing.
这名字完全名副其实。
This is exactly what it says on the box.
你要分享一件最近引起你关注的科技领域的好事。
You're gonna share one good thing in tech that has caught your attention recently.
我会先分享一件,然后我们聊几分钟,之后让大家去享受他们的情人节。
I'll share one, and we'll talk about them for a few minutes, and we'll let everyone go enjoy their Valentine's Day.
这真是个认识凯文的好时机。
Sounds like a great time to meet Kevin.
我先来吗?
Shall I go first?
好的。
Yes.
你的这一件好事是什么?
What is your one good thing?
这是一个稍微有点低调的发现。
So this is one that has been flying a little bit under the radar.
它是Spotify的一个新功能,目前只在少数国家推出,比如美国、加拿大、新西兰,我想是这样。
It is a new feature in Spotify, and it is only available in a few countries, The US, Canada, New Zealand, I believe.
而且只有高级订阅用户才能使用。
And it's only available to premium subscribers.
明白吗?
Okay?
所以如果你想尝试这个功能,门槛有点高。
So there's a little bit of a bar if you wanna try this one.
但以我的经验来看,这绝对是值得的。
But in my experience, it has been well worth it.
这个功能叫做‘提示歌单’。
The feature is called prompted playlists.
你见过这些吗?
Have you seen these?
我在你的通讯里读到过,但给我多讲讲吧。
I read about them in your newsletter, but tell me more.
自古以来,凯文,我们都想要完美的歌单,并且花了无数个小时在iTunes、Spotify或当时使用的任何音乐系统里手动制作。
So from time immemorial, Kevin, we have all wanted the perfect playlist, and we have devoted countless hours to crafting them manually inside iTunes, Spotify, whatever music system we were using at the time.
但这个系统遗漏了太多东西。
But there are so many things that this system misses.
而我发现,提示歌单正是解决这个问题的方法。
And what I have found is that prompted playlists are a way to solve this problem.
它是这样运作的。
Here's how it works.
你打开Spotify应用,那里有一个名为“创建”的标签,点击进入,如果你有这个功能,就会看到“提示歌单”选项。
You open your Spotify app, there's a tab somewhere there called create, you go to create, and if you have it, you will see prompted playlist in there.
它会显示一个与ChatGPT一模一样的文本框。
And it will show you a text box that looks exactly like ChatGPT.
这就像一个精灵,你可以向它许愿,说‘我想听这样的歌单’,然后Spotify就会尽力为你创建这样的歌单。
And this is just basically a genie that you can throw a wish into and say, I would like a playlist like this, and then Spotify will go forth and do its best to create that playlist.
现在我看着你,我觉得你到目前为止可能有点无聊。
Now I'm looking at you and I and I feel like you might be a little bored so far.
没有。
No.
我不觉得无聊。
I'm not bored.
我正在想我自己的版本,以及我会用它来做什么,但你继续说吧。
I'm thinking about my own version of this and what I would use it for, but keep going.
好吧,我来告诉你我是怎么用它的。
Well, I'll tell you how I used it.
我是个音乐迷。
I am a music nerd.
在2000年代,我用iTunes创建了这些播放列表,它们对我来说至关重要,能追踪我最爱的歌曲以及我最近听它们的时间。
And back in the o o's, I used iTunes to create these play playlists that did something essential for me, which was they would keep track of my favorite songs and how recently I listened to them.
当我太久没听最爱的歌时,它就会把这些歌自动组合成播放列表。
And when it had been too long since I last heard my favorite song, it would just put those together in an automated playlists.
所以,就是把它重新加入播放循环里?
So, like, throw it into the rotation.
把它重新放回播放循环里。
Throw it back in in the the rotation.
虽然在很多方面,我更喜欢流媒体时代而非iTunes时代,但这一点是我们失去的东西。
And while I vastly prefer the streaming era to the iTunes era in many ways, this is just something we lost.
我们放弃了一种非常简单的基于规则的技术。
We took a very simple rules based technology.
我们把它扔出了窗外,现在却不得不用一种复杂得多的方式来重新构建它。
We threw it out the window, and now we're having to recreate it using something vastly more complicated.
但当我一看到这些播放列表问世,我就想试试能否让它重现我梦想中的iTunes播放列表。
But as soon as I saw that these playlists came out, I wanted to see if I could get it to recreate the iTunes playlist of my dreams.
前几天我写了一篇非常热情的通讯文章介绍这个。
And I wrote a very enthusiastic newsletter about this the other day.
我得说,最近几天我的体验有所降温,但也许我该先告诉你我是怎么用的,以防其他人也想尝试类似的方法。
I will say my experience has been tempered somewhat in recent days, but maybe I should just tell you how I use this in case anybody else might wanna try something similar.
请。
Please.
所以我做的就是:给我展示那些我听过至少20次,但过去两个月没听过的歌曲。
So what I did was said, show me songs I've listened to at least 20 times, but not in the past two months.
请不要重复同一张专辑,并基于这个集合创建一个编排良好的播放列表,而不是单纯按播放次数排序。
Please don't repeat albums and create a well sequenced playlist drawing from this set rather than just ranking by play count.
这最终给了我想要的播放列表。
And this was able to give me the playlist that I was looking for.
这些歌都是它知道我喜欢的,因为我反复听过,但最近一段时间没再听过了。
It was songs that it knows I like because I played them, you know, a bunch, and I haven't listened to them in a while.
你知道的,有时候当你使用大语言模型时,凯文,它们会骗你。
And, you know, sometimes when you use an LLM, Kevin, they will lie to you.
所以我联系了Spotify,说:请让我和能向我解释这是否真的在工作的人通话。
And so I actually called up Spotify and I said, put me on the phone with somebody who can explain to me whether this is actually working.
它真的在使用我的收听数据吗?
Like, is it actually using my user my listening data?
最后我跟那边的个性化业务副总裁莫莉·霍勒聊了聊,她确认说:是的,当你在Spotify中输入请求时,如果你希望使用你的收听数据——而我的Spotify收听记录已经超过了十年——它确实会这么做。
And I wound up talking to the VP of personalization over there, a woman named Molly Holder, and she confirmed that yes, when you type into Spotify, if you wanted to use your listening data, and in my case, I have listening data on Spotify going back more than a decade, it actually will do that.
这带来了各种有趣的可能性。
And this just enables all sorts of fun things.
她告诉我,有些人用这个播放列表功能要求:生成一个与我品味完全相反的播放列表,它会尽力把你带出你的信息茧房。
So she was telling me some people have used this playlist to say, make a playlist that is the opposite of my taste, and it will try to get you as far outside of your filter bubble as it can take you.
而且如果
And if
你正在听《Hard Fork》播客,因为你给Spotify下了同样的指令:生成一个与我品味相反的播放列表,结果把你带到了这里。
you're listening to the Hard Fork podcast because you gave your Spotify a same thing that said, make a playlist with the opposite of my taste and it led you here.
欢迎。
Welcome.
欢迎。
Welcome.
你现在安全了。
You're you're safe now.
我们不知道你之前听的是什么。
We don't know what you were listening to before.
等等。
Wait.
与《Hard Fork》相反的播客是什么?
What is the opposite podcast to hard fork?
《Meg 和 Kelly 的节目》。
The Meg and Kelly show.
就是梅格啊。
The Meg yeah.
梅根·凯利秀。
Megyn Kelly show.
所以,我鼓励你好好享受这个过程。
So anyways, I encourage you to have fun with this.
还有一些其他你可以尝试的东西。
Some other things you might wanna try.
莫莉告诉我,如果你去一个新国家旅行,你可以说:给我推荐这个国家的热门歌曲列表,或者给我推荐这个国家过去几十年里一些非常流行的歌曲。
Molly was telling me if you're traveling to a new country, you might say, make me a playlist of the top hits in this country or make me a playlist of some very popular songs in this country, you know, over the past couple of decades.
这种方法通常很有效。
That tends to work.
你也可以走得更抽象一些。
You can also go really abstract.
比如,你说:给我制作一个在海滩上吃鱼肉玉米饼时听的完美歌单,然后看看会发生什么。
You know, you can say, make me the perfect playlist for eating fish tacos on the beach and just see see what happens.
我喜欢这一点,因为它真的是一个充满创意的画布,而且杜绝了随意堆砌。
So the thing I like about this is it's a real kind of canvas for creativity and it is anti slop.
你知道的?
You know?
我在我的专栏里写过这个。
I wrote about this in my column.
你知道的?
You know?
你有一个很好的术语叫‘算法漂移’,指的是算法抓住你,把你带到你可能根本不想去的地方的过程。
You have this great term machine drift, which is the process where an algorithm kind of grabs ahold of you and it leads you somewhere that you might never have wanted to go.
这是反算法漂移。
This is anti machine drip.
这是你在说:嘿,你已经根据我选择听的音乐了解了我很多。
This is you saying, hey, you already know a lot about me based on what I chose to listen to.
我想以此为基础,找到更多我可能会喜欢的精彩内容。
I wanna use that as the foundation to find more cool stuff that I might like.
所以,这一直是我在生活中觉得特别有帮助的AI工具之一。
So this has been one of those AI tools that I actually found quite empowering in my life.
它并不完美。
It hasn't been perfect.
最近几天,它在几个方面开始出问题,让我感到有些失望。
It's kinda started to break in a couple ways that have been disappointing me over the past few days.
但总的来说,我会说这是一个很酷的功能。
But in general, I would say this is a cool feature.
如果你在Spotify上能用到这个功能,不妨试试看。
If you have it on Spotify, you should probably give it a try.
这太棒了。
That's very cool.
我喜欢这个。
I like that.
它给了我一个想法,因为我有一个比较小众的音乐兴趣,现在我在想,这个功能能不能应对。
And it gives me an idea because I have a sort of niche musical fascination that I'm now wondering if this can handle.
我跟你提过我那个对歌名不在歌词里出现的歌曲的偏好吗?
Have I told you about my thing about songs where the titles don't appear in the lyrics?
没有。
No.
好的。
Okay.
不知为什么,我特别喜欢那些歌名在歌词里找不到的歌曲。
For some reason, I love songs with titles that don't appear in the lyrics.
给我们举几个例子吧。
Give us some examples.
《波西米亚狂想曲》。
Bohemian Rhapsody.
是的。
Yeah.
《生命中的一天》。
Day in the Life.
安妮之歌。
Annie's song.
嗯。
Mhmm.
这种歌有很多。
There are lots of these.
是的。
Yeah.
有些歌的标题是描述性的,但歌词并不怎么样。
Songs that have a sort of descriptive title and they're not that good in the lyrics.
让我看看会发生什么。
So let me see what happens.
是的。
Yeah.
如果我去Spotify,该在哪里找这种歌?
If I go into Spotify, where do I find this?
如果你点击你的音乐库,
If you tap your library,
这个
the
标签页,你会在右上角看到一个大加号按钮,然后会看到推荐的播放列表。
tab there, you'll see a big plus button at the upper right hand corner, and you should see prompted playlist.
推荐播放列表。
Prompt playlist.
好的。
Okay.
然后你点击它。
And so you'll tap on that.
给我创建一个播放列表,里面的歌曲标题都不以‘蝴蝶翅膀’开头。
So make me a playlist of songs whose titles do not bullet with butterfly wings.
这又是另一个。
That's another one.
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