我

显然，这最终被证明是英国首相的一厢情愿。

Well, that turned out obviously to be wishful thinking on the British prime minister's part.

但像尼尔·弗格森这样的修正主义历史学家在《战争的遗憾》等著作中提出，如果英国当时保持中立，出于各种原因我们今天的世界会更好。

But historians like Neil Ferguson who write revisionist works like the pity of war have suggested that if the British had stayed out, we'd have a better world today for all sorts of reasons.

他实际上排除了二十世纪许多重大事件——那些最可怕的灾难，声称如果英国不参战，这些事件就都不会发生。

I mean, he knocks off many of the biggest events of the twentieth century, the most horrible saying this never happens, that never happens, that never happens if Britain stays out of the war.

英国可以选择不参战，因为他们与任何国家都没有硬性同盟关系。

Britain can stay out of the war because they don't have a hard alliance with anyone.

他们没有陷入那个同盟网络之中。

They're not caught up in that web of alliances.

至少没有陷得太深。

Well, not too much.

他们与法国达成了谅解协议，这个协议留有足够的回旋余地，因此英国国内对是否要介入这场冲突进行了大量讨论。

They have an understanding with France, an understanding with enough wiggle room so that there was a lot of talk in Britain about do we or don't we get involved in this whole thing.

这场全面冲突是欧洲百年来未曾发生过的大规模战争。

This whole thing was something that hadn't happened in a hundred years in Europe, a general European war.

自拿破仑时代、滑铁卢战役以来，欧洲再未爆发过如此规模的战争。

It hadn't happened since Napoleon, since Waterloo.

那场战争——不仅是它，还包括整个拿破仑战争和法国大革命时期的战争，从1789年到1815年那段岁月——在军事破坏方面如此惨烈，给欧洲各国的君主们上了一课。

And that war was so terrible, not just that war, the entire Napoleonic Wars and the wars of the French Revolution, that era from, like, 1789 to 1815, so awful in terms of military destruction that a lesson had been talked to the, you know, crown heads of Europe.

这堂课的内容就是：战争已不再是儿戏。

And the lesson was war is not as much of a game anymore.

不再是那种我们调动小型私人军队在欧洲棋盘上对弈，输了就割让一个行省，下次赢了再夺回来的游戏。

It's no longer, you know, these small private armies that we move around our European chessboard and, oh, I lost to you so you can have this province, and then next time I'll beat you and I'll take that province back.

明白吗？

You know?

当时没有人试图颠覆其他政权。

Nobody was trying to topple other regimes.

如果非要形容，可以说这是绅士间的战争——如果历史上真存在过这种战争的话。

It was, if anything, gentlemanly warfare, if there's ever been such a thing.

历史书上称这种战争为有限战争或受限战争。

It's been called in the history books limited warfare or restricted warfare.

1933年有位意大利历史学家费拉罗曾谈到，那个时代的战争是国家领袖们真正能乐在其中的战争。

There was an Italian historian named Ferraro in 1933 who talked about how that era of warfare was the kind of warfare where the leaders of countries could actually have fun going to war.

战争对他们而言就像猎杀野鸡一样，至少在某些人心中是这么想的。

War was something you just sort of did like pheasant hunting, at least in the minds of some of these guys.

费拉拉写道：'有限战争是十八世纪最崇高的成就之一。'

Ferrara writes, quote, restricted warfare was one of the loftiest achievements of the eighteenth century.

'它属于只能在贵族和优质文明温室中茁壮成长的那类娇贵植物。'

It belongs to a class of hothouse plants which can only thrive in an aristocratic and qualitative civilization.

'我们已不再具备这种能力。'

We are no longer capable of it.

'这是法国大革命让我们失去的美好事物之一。'

It's one of the fine things we have lost as a result of the French Revolution, end quote.

法国大革命标志着——至少在这个时代的欧洲人心中——战争开始变得真正残酷。

The French Revolution was when, you know, warfare got, at least in the minds of the Europeans of this era, you know, really serious.

你们想要战争吗？

You want a war?

那我们就开战吧。

Then we're gonna go to war.

法国大革命后，欧洲各国的君主们纷纷进攻法国。

The crown heads of Europe attacked France after France went all revolutionary.

你必须理解这件事带来的震撼有多大。

And you have to understand how much of a shock that was.

历史学家格温·戴尔对此有个绝妙的描述。

Historian Gwen Dyer has a great way of describing it.

他说要理解欧洲君主们看到最王权至上的法国被左翼革命者推翻时的震惊程度，就想象如果今天毛主义者推翻了美国政府会怎样。

He says to understand the shock of the crown heads of Europe when the most royal of European countries, the French, were overthrown by leftist revolutionaries, He says, you have to imagine if Maoists toppled the US government today.

毛主义者当然是指非常激进的共产主义团体。

Maoists, of course, being a very hardcore communist group.

想象他们推翻今天的美国政府并开始执政。

Imagine them toppling today's US government and beginning to govern.

他说这就是欧洲君主们对法国革命的感受，以及这场革命被视为多么具有颠覆性。

He goes, that's how how the crown heads of Europe felt about the French Revolution and how destabilizing it was seen.

因此不可避免的是，几乎整个欧洲的皇室都与法国这个新共和国发生冲突，并结成联盟共同进攻法国。

So inevitably, the royalty of Europe, which is almost all of Europe, clashes with this new republic in France and coalesces into an alliance and everybody attacks France.

他们带着私人雇佣军参战，却遭遇了全民武装的法国人民。

And they do so with their private mercenary armies and they run into the entire French population, a people in arms.

因为法国最初节节败退。

Because France started by losing.

想象一个国家的根基完全崩溃——尤其是军队体系——而普鲁士、俄罗斯、奥地利和大不列颠等欧洲列强同时进攻法国，你手上只剩些残兵败将。

You have to imagine a state where the entire underpinnings of the state have been broken down including especially the army and then all I mean, Prussia, Russia, Austria, and Great Britain, all these powers in Europe attacked France at the same time and you're stuck with, I mean, like a bit of your army left over.

炮兵部队仍效忠人民，所以法国旧式炮兵还算可靠。

The artillery stayed with the people, so the old French artillery was good.

但你手下的军队鱼龙混杂，军官们毫无威信可言。

But you've got this mishmash of an army with officers who don't have any authority.

简直疯狂。

It's crazy.

当法国濒临战败时，正如只有极权体制能做到的那样，他们向法国人民宣告：战争现在就是一切。

And France is about to be defeated, and then as only, you know, totalitarian type regimes can do, they basically tell the people of France that the war is now everything.

我们全部的焦点，整个社会存在的唯一目的就是赢得这场战争。

Our entire focus, the entire society exists only to win this war.

1793年法国国民公会的法令宣布：‘从此刻起，直至敌人被逐出共和国领土为止，所有法国人将被永久征召入伍。’

The decree of the French National Convention in 1793 said, From this moment until that in which our enemies shall have been driven from the territory of the republic, all Frenchmen are permanently requisitioned for service in the armies.

年轻人应当上战场。

The young men shall fight.

已婚男子应锻造武器并运输补给。

The married men shall forge weapons and transport supplies.

妇女们将制作帐篷和衣物，并在医院服务。

The women will make tents and clothes and serve in hospitals.

公共建筑将被改造成兵营。

The public buildings shall be turned into barracks.

公共广场将变为军火工厂。

The public squares into munition factories.

所有符合口径要求的枪支必须上缴部队。

All firearms of suitable caliber shall be turned over to the troops.

国内将用霰弹枪和冷兵器维持治安。

The interior will be policed with shotguns and cold steel.

所有鞍马都将被征用给骑兵部队。

All saddle horses shall be seized for the cavalry.

未用于耕作的役马将负责拖拽火炮和补给车。

All draft horses not employed in cultivation will draw the artillery and supply wagons.

换句话说，整个社会都被动员起来支持战争。

In other words, the entire society was mobilized for the war effort.

这是其他国家没有采取的做法。

This was not something that the other countries did.

事实上，欧洲大多数王室统治者最害怕的莫过于武装和训练民众。

In fact, most of the royal leaders of Europe could think of nothing more scary than arming and training your population.

他们经常动用职业军队镇压民众起义。

Often, used their professional militaries to put down rebellions by their population.

他们最不愿意做的就是给民众枪支并训练他们使用武器。

The last thing they wanted to do was give them guns and train them how to use it.

对吧？

Right?

训练他们成为更优秀的街头战士。

Train them how to be better street fighters.

这在其他国家不可能发生，但法国拥有一种不同的社会形态，一个本应由底层民众来运作的社会。

Wasn't gonna happen, but the French had a different kind of society, one that was supposed to be run by the very, you know, low born people.

所有人都团结一致，再加上愿意将几乎无穷无尽的人力生命投入战场的决心。

Everybody was in this together, and you combine the willingness to throw human life, you know, out there on the battlefield in almost endless numbers.

你甚至不需要付钱给这些人。

You didn't have to pay these people either.

你大可以直接说，很抱歉，你现在失业了。

You could just say, I'm sorry, you're out of work right now.

你要去前线，路上顺便从某个农民那里偷几只鸡。

You're going to the front and steal some chickens from some farmer on the way.

这太疯狂了，突然间法国人就能以前所未有的规模消耗生命，并组建起庞大的军队。

This was crazy, and all of a sudden the French were able to expend lives on a scale that was unprecedented and to create armies that were enormous.

我是说，看看亚历山大大帝，他可能是世界历史上最伟大的征服者。

I mean, look at Alexander the Great, probably the greatest conqueror in all world history.

亚历山大征服了当时已知世界的很大一部分，以及相当一部分未知世界，所用军队人数在4万到9万之间。

Alexander conquers a very large chunk of the known world and a decent sized chunk of the unknown world at the time with an army that numbered anywhere from 40 to 90,000 men.

明白吗？

Okay?

显然他在征服过程中展现出了非凡的军事天才。

And he was obviously a genius in the way he did it.

但想象一下，如果亚历山大能使用历史复印机复制那支征服世界的军队，那么他现在就有两支4万到9万人的军队，实力大致相当。

But imagine if Alexander could have used a historical Xerox machine to duplicate that world conquering army so that now he's got two forty to 90,000 man armies roughly comparable to each other.

再想象他再次复制，然后一次又一次地复制。

Now imagine he does it again and then duplicates it again, and then again, and then again.

当你复制到拥有120万、130万、150万，甚至最终接近300万士兵时，你就给了亚历山大大帝一支二十世纪的军队。

You do that enough times to where you've got 1.2, 1.3, 1,500,000 men, maybe eventually closer to 3,000,000 men, And now you've given Alexander the Great a twentieth century army.

一支二十世纪的军队相当于过去许多支军队的总和。

A twentieth century army is many, many armies from the past.

法国大革命正是这一现象的真正开端。

The French Revolution is when that really starts.

当你将如此庞大的军队投入战场时，士兵们是否无能、生命是否被浪费、是否沦为炮灰都已不再重要——拿破仑将继承这种人民军队的模式，只要需要就能征召所有适龄男性，正如他所说：士兵生来就是被牺牲的。

When you start putting so many troops into the field that it doesn't matter that they're practically incompetent, that their lives are wasted, that they're turned into cannon fodder as Napoleon who will inherit this, you know, people's army that will conscript every man they wanna conscript as long as they need them will say, troops are born to be killed.

正如拿破仑对奥地利外交官梅特涅伯爵说的那句名言：你无法阻止我。

And as Napoleon famously said to the Austrian diplomat, Count Metternich, you cannot stop me.

我每月消耗三万条生命。

I spend 30,000 lives a month.

当时欧洲任何主要大国（或许除俄罗斯外）若在一个月内损失三万人，都将被视为重创。

If any of the major powers, except maybe Russia, in Europe at this time, lost 30,000 men in a month, it would be considered quite a blow.

拿破仑每月损失三万人却习以为常，因为他拥有一种新型军队。

Napoleon lost 30,000 men a month as a matter of course because he had a new kind of army.

他拥有全民武装。

He had a people in arms.

而为了击败他，欧洲其他国家也不得不效仿这种做法。

And in order to beat him, the other countries of Europe had to do the same thing.

正如德国元帅布吕歇尔在普鲁士被拿破仑击败后对政府所说，给我一支国民军。

As the German field marshal Bluescher told the Prussian you know, government after the Prussians had been defeated by Napoleon, give me a national army.

给我他所拥有的那种军队。

Give me what he has.

当他终于获得这支军队时——普鲁士贵族原本不愿这样做，就像欧洲各地的统治者都不愿武装民众那样——但一旦实现，布吕歇尔的军队规模就扩大了三倍，他率领这支军队与拿破仑作战。

And when he got it, you know, which the Prussian aristocracy didn't wanna do for the same reason that the European leaders everywhere didn't wanna do it, They didn't wanna put the people in arms, but when they did, they were able to triple the size of Bluescher's army, and he took that army and fought Napoleon with it.

建立全民武装的国家，是打造现代战争机器的第一步，因为突然间，生命变得廉价了。

The creation of a nation in arms was the first step in creating the modern war machine because now all of a sudden life was cheap.

不仅生命变得廉价，现代民族国家也具备了足够深厚的底蕴来承受重击。

Not only was life cheap, but the modern nation state was now deep enough to be able to truly take a punch.

这正是现代军队和现代国家与古代军事体系的本质区别。

And this is what sets the modern militaries off and the modern states off from the ones in ancient times.

用拳击术语来说，在古代，能承受重击的国家寥寥无几。

In ancient times, very few states could take a punch, you know, to use a boxing term.

但它们中许多却能主动发起猛烈攻击。

Many of them could dish it out.

以阿契美尼德波斯帝国为例，就是那个在温泉关与斯巴达人交战的国家。

When you take a state like the Achaemenid Persians, you know, the ones who fought the Spartans at Thermopylae and all that.

波斯人能发动猛烈攻击，却承受不了多少重击。

The Persians could dish out really good blows, but they couldn't take very many good blows.

过去大多数国家都做不到这一点。

Most nations in the past couldn't.

这就是为什么如果你看一本关于历史上最伟大战役的书，如果时间超过大约150年前，有时那场伟大战役就是唯一的战役。

That's why if you look at a book, you know, the greatest battles in history, if it's beyond, you know, about a hundred and fifty years ago, sometimes the great battle is the only battle.

我的意思是，战争往往通过一场大战役决定胜负，因为民族国家承受不了太多打击。

Mean, wars are won or lost on one big battle because the nation states couldn't take too many punches.

他们无法重新组建军队。

They couldn't reraise armies.

国家根本无法承受这样的代价。

The state just couldn't support it.

一旦法国将整个国家转入战争状态，国家就能更好地承受打击。

Once France turns the entire nation into the war effort, nations can take punches better.

在过去，蒙古人和中国人确实能承受一些打击。

In the past, I mean the Mongols and the Chinese could take some punches.

罗马帝国也能承受打击。

Roman Empire could take punches.

这正是这些古代国家区别于大多数敌人的特点。

That's what set those nation states in the past apart from most of their enemies.

对吧？

Right?

它们具备更强的持久力。

They had more staying power.

它们拥有现代化的持久力。

They had modern staying power.

法国大革命教会了所有这些国家如何获得现代化的持久力。

The French Revolution teaches all these states to have modern staying power.

现代化持久力的唯一问题是，杀戮可能会持续更长时间。

The only problem with modern staying power is that the killing can go on longer.

在拳击比赛中，人们总觉得早期击倒比持久战更仁慈，因为在持久战中你会承受更多打击。

In boxing, they always feel like an early knockout is more merciful than a long match because in a long match, you take a lot more punishment.

有趣的是，如果一切都能在一场可怕的大决战中决定，比如战争初期，那比起持续四五年、双方都耗到精疲力竭的冲突，长期成本要低得多。

Well, in a funny way, if everything could be decided at one big horrific battle, you know, at the start of a war, that is a lot less costly over time than a four or a five year long conflict where both sides grind each other down to the nub.

拿破仑战争造就了欧洲多个国家具备战斗至精疲力竭的能力，这意味着在这些战争停止前会造成更多破坏和毁灭。

The Napoleonic Wars created multiple states in Europe capable of fighting until they were ground down to the nub, which meant a lot more damage and destruction before these wars came to a halt.

现代民族国家为全民武装的军队提供了长期维持斗争所需的支持，这是构建现代战争机器的必要条件之一。

The modern nation state provided the support that the militaries that involved entire peoples in arms needed to keep the struggle going for long periods of time, one half of the equation necessary to create the modern war machines.

正如军事历史学家格温·戴尔在谈及拿破仑战争的人力成本后所写，他指出：同样重要的是，欧洲社会在重压之下并未崩溃。

As military historian Gwen Dyer writes right after he talks about the human costs of these long Napoleonic wars, he says, Almost as important is the fact that European society did not break down under the strain.

虽然民生艰难但未至饥荒，参战国仍能年复一年地持续作战，驱使民众投入这场看不到尽头的战争。

There was hardship but no starvation, and the warring powers were able to keep at it and keep their people at it year after year with no end in sight.

欧洲各国已积累了足够财富，掌握了组织技巧和动员手段， 能够发动民众广泛参与的全面战争——这是其他文明社会从未企及的程度。

The European states had developed the wealth, the organizational techniques, and the methods of motivation needed to fight mass wars with a degree of popular participation that no other civilized society had ever even approached.

他写道，将大规模战争升级为总体战所欠缺的仅是技术条件。而工业革命在1814年已发展近一代人之久，很快将填补这最后的空白。

All that was lacking, he writes, to transform mass warfare into total war was the technology, but the industrial revolution was already almost a generation old in 1814 and soon it would begin to fill the last remaining gap.

拿破仑战争和法国大革命所创造的这部新型致命机器所欠缺的，是通过技术手段将杀伤力呈指数级提升的能力。

What was missing to make this new deadly machine that the Napoleonic Wars and the French Revolution created was the technology to increase the deadliness by exponential amounts.

而这正是当时已在发生的变化。

And that was already something that was happening.

19世纪是军事史上机器杀伤力急剧飙升的时代。

The eighteen hundred's are an era in military history where the killing power of machines skyrockets.

早在城市和人类社会能够组建大规模军队之前，机器就已经是战场的重要组成部分。

And machines have been an important part of battlefields since before there were cities and human societies to field mass armies at all.

想想弓箭。

Think of the bow and arrow.

那是新石器时代的武器。

That's a Neolithic weapon.

这种石器时代的工具让人类在狩猎和战场上都能更高效地杀戮。

That's a stone age machine that made man a more efficient killer both in hunting but on the battlefield as well.

到了19世纪，这种机械的杀伤力急剧飙升。

By the time the eighteen hundreds roll around, the machine's killing power skyrockets.

但由于拿破仑时代与第一次世界大战之间没有爆发所有大国参与的重大战争，这些武器实际应用效果的展示是缺失的。

But because there is no major war involving all the great powers between Napoleon and the first world war, the actual demonstration of how this stuff can be used is lacking.

世界军事强国试图通过研究发生的冲突，来预判下一场战争可能的面貌并汲取经验。

The military powers of the world try to examine the conflicts that do happen to see if they can learn any lessons about what the next war is likely to be like.

例如曾有欧洲观察员亲临美国南北战争现场，试图从中获取经验。

There were European observers, for example, at the American Civil War to try to see what you could learn from that.

1850年代爆发了俄国与英法之间的克里米亚战争。

The Crimean War breaks out in the 1850s between Russia and Britain and France.

世纪之交时，美国与西班牙围绕古巴和菲律宾爆发了战争。

There's a war obviously between The United States and Spain that involved Cuba and The Philippines right around the turn of the century going into the 1900s.

尤其重要的是1905年日俄战争，这场战争中可以观察到某些新型武器的运用——当这些武器组合使用时，就构成了现代战争机器。

Probably most importantly, there's a war between Japan and Russia in 1905 where some of the use of these new weapons that when fused together create the modern war machine, where some of that was observable.

但欧洲战略家们认为最关键的因素，可以追溯到美国南北战争中一位南方将领的名言：战争制胜之道在于'以最快速度集结最大兵力'。

The one thing that seems to be the key element as far as European planners can figure it out though is something that harkens back to a phrase from a Confederate general in the US Civil War who said that the key to warfare was to get there firstest with the mostest.

当时欧洲建立的这些大规模军队，其核心理念就是必须比对手更快完成动员并将军队投送到战场。

The idea now of these mass armies that Europe had created was that you needed to be able to raise them and get them to the battlefield before the other side beats you to it.

一旦萨拉热窝的刺客子弹击毙奥地利大公，动员时间表就成为欧洲列强无一不被迫屈从的力量。

The timetable for mobilization becomes a force that none of the major European powers seem to be anything but a slave to once the assassin's bullet in Sarajevo cuts down the Austrian archduke.

当大公被普林西普刺杀时，他的行为无异于拔掉了手榴弹的保险栓。

When the archduke is killed by Princip, he does the equivalent of pulling a pin on a hand grenade.

想象一下试图与一个已经拔掉手榴弹保险栓的人进行谈判来避免爆炸。

Imagine trying to hold negotiations to ward off an explosion with a guy who's already pulled the pin on the grenade.

对吧？

Right?

你只有有限的时间去说服他们任何事情。

You have a limited amount of time to convince them of anything.

温斯顿·丘吉尔有句名言：'吵吵总比打打好'，意思是谈判永远比战争好。

Winston Churchill during his life had famously said that jaw jaw was better than war war, meaning negotiations always better than war.

但如果对方已经拔掉了手榴弹的保险栓，你避免灾难的机会窗口就非常短暂了。

But if the person's already pulled the pin on the hand grenade, you have a very short window of opportunity to avoid the inevitable.

这就是大公遇刺后欧洲所处的境地。

That's where Europe finds itself after the archduke is murdered.

每个人也都在担心同样的事情。

Everybody's worried about the same thing too.

和平运动在1960年代末、1970年代初曾用一句老话：如果他们发动战争却没人参加会怎样？

There's an old phrase the peace movement used to use in the late 1960s, early 1970s where they would say, What if they gave a war and nobody came?

而当时欧洲的军事策划者们担心的却有些不同。

Well, the military planners in Europe at this time period are worried about something a little bit different.

如果战争爆发，而在敌对行动开始那天，只有一方军队到场会怎样？

What if war breaks out and on the days that hostilities commence, only one side's got their army there?

我是说，如果你的预备役士兵需要三十天才能穿上制服到达集结地点并投入战斗，而你的对手只需十五天就能完成同样的准备，这差距有多大？

I mean, if it takes you thirty days to get your reservists in uniform to the mustering point and to the battlefield before they're ready to fight, how big of a deal is it if it only takes your opponent fifteen days to do the same thing?

这给故事中的每个人带来了巨大的时间压力，你知道的，严重限制了通过谈判摆脱这种困境的可能性。

This puts a huge crunch, you know, time wise on everybody in this story and constrains the ability to negotiate your way out of this situation.

所有人都觉得，好吧，第一个按下动员开关的人会带动所有人行动，因为没人愿意落后。

Everybody feels like, okay, the first person that flips the mobilization switch, we all go because nobody wants to fall behind.

德国人在时间上给自己施加了更多限制，因为他们找到了如何应对两线作战这一可怕困境的解决方案。

The Germans have constrained themselves even more time wise by the way that they have found a solution to their terrible dilemma of how do you fight a two front war.

要知道，一旦你违背了俾斯麦的格言——让俄国人站在你这边，而俄国人和法国人结盟后战争爆发，你就得同时在西部对抗法国人，东部对抗俄国人。

You know, once you violate Bismarck's dictum of, you know, keep the Russians on your side, and then the Russians and the French ally with each other and war breaks out, you're gonna be fighting the French in the West and the Russians in the East at the same time.

在这几十年间，杰出的德国总参谋部已经想出办法不仅能在这种局面下生存，还能赢得战争。

And in the intervening decades, the fantastic German general staff had figured out a way to not just survive that situation, but to win that war.

但这个计划需要极其精确的时间把控，进一步压缩了你在炸弹爆炸前的谈判空间。

But it involved exquisite timing, which further constrained the amount of negotiation room you had before the grenade went off.

这个时间策略利用了当时普遍认为俄国动员速度极其缓慢的认知。

The timing involved taking advantage of the fact that everyone thought the Russians were going to take forever to mobilize.

俄国人被视作一个庞大但笨拙的巨人，组织能力远不如德国和法国等国家。

The Russians were seen as a giant, somewhat clumsy colossus, less organized than the Germans and the French and people like that.

因此当俄国人终于整顿好他们庞大的军队准备作战时，德国应该已经击败了法国。

And so by the time the Russians could get their act together and get their monstrous armies in the field ready to fight, Germany already would have defeated France.

他们的整个行动计划就是立即集中几乎所有力量打击法国，在击败法军后调转枪口对抗此时才完成动员的俄军。

Their entire plan for action involved throwing almost all their weight against the French immediately and then turning after French forces were defeated and throwing those forces against the now ready to fight Russians.

但这给德国人带来了双重影响。

But this did two things to the Germans.

其一，这意味着俄国人无法提前进行动员。

One, it meant the Russians could have no advance time mobilizing.

你不能让他们有三四天的动员时间，同时你却等着通过谈判把安全栓插回手榴弹。

You couldn't let them mobilize for three or four days while you waited to negotiate putting the pin back in the grenade.

你没有那种时间余裕。

You didn't have that kind of time.

如果那样做，你会彻底打乱赢得战争的整个计划。

You were gonna screw up your entire plan for winning the war if you did that.

其二，这意味着若与俄国开战，你就必须攻打法国。

The other thing that it meant is that if you went to war with Russia, you had to attack France.

你必须预设法军终将参战，而你唯一制定好的应对方案就是先发制人攻打法国。

You had to assume that the French would come in at some time, and the only thing you had a plan to deal with was to attack the French first.

所以若与俄国开战，作为交易条件的一部分就必须攻打法国。

So if you go into war with Russia, get to attack France as part of the bargain.

但实际情况比这更令人担忧。

But it was even more of a concern than that.

这涉及到攻击法国以外的国家，那些你与之毫无分歧的国家，只是恰好挡在路上的中立国。

It involved attacking countries besides France, countries you had no disagreement with at all, neutral countries that just happened to be in the way.

德国人想出了一个解决他们被包围问题的计划，但这实质上意味着为了自卫而发动一场世界大战。

The Germans had come up with a plan to deal with their encirclement problem, but it involved launching essentially a world war in their own defense.

普林西普所做的另一件事，是为那些认为战争迟早会爆发的领导人提供了一个机会，让他们决定现在开战比以后更好。

The other thing that Princip did was provide an opportunity for a lot of these leaders who thought war was coming anyway to decide that now was better than later.

这是冲突中另一个有趣的侧面，但如果你是这些众多军事参谋部的一员，他们确信战争即将来临，你可以阅读各大军事强国的记录，会发现他们的军事规划者普遍认为战争不可避免。

This is another interesting side of the conflict, but if you're part of these many military staffs that are absolutely sure war is coming, and you can read accounts from every major military, the time period where numbers of their military planners thought war was inevitable.

问题是，如果战争不可避免，是现在打比晚打更好吗？

The question is, is if it's going to be inevitable, is it better to fight it now than later?

德国人当时认为俄国正在迈向超级大国地位，而纵观二十世纪的历史发展，事实确实如此。

The Germans were under the impression that the Russians were on their way to superpower status, which if you look at what happened in the twentieth century is exactly how it turned out.

德国人觉得到1917年这将成为现实。

The Germans felt that by 1917 that was going to be a reality.

俄国人当时正在完成重大的军事改革和交通运输改革。

The Russians were completing major military reforms, major transportation reforms.

他们利用巨额法国银行贷款来做这件事。

They were taking advantage huge French bank loans to do this stuff.

德国人盘算着如果战争三年后爆发，我们的处境会比现在糟糕得多。

The Germans figured if war comes in three years we're going to be in a much worse situation than we are now.

所以既然战争不可避免，不如现在就动手。

So if it's here we might as well do it now.

我们现在拥有的优势，未来将不复存在。

We have an advantage now we won't have later.

法国人对德国人的感受，与德国人对俄国人的感受如出一辙。

And the French felt similarly about the Germans as the Germans felt about the Russians.

他们看着德国的人口出生率，不禁感叹：'我们将会被淹没。'

They were looking at the German birth rate and just going, We're going to be swamped.

他们正关注着工业的增长。

They were looking at the growth in industry.

我是说，德国人当时势头正猛。

I mean, the Germans were on a tear.

所以如果战争在五、六或七年后爆发，法国的情况只会更糟。

So if war came in five or six or seven years, the French are just going to be worse off.

因此他们得出了同样的结论。

So they figured the same thing.

如果战争终将到来，不如让它现在就发生。

If war is going to come, let it come now.

在这些错综复杂的利益冲突和对时机的忧虑中，世界看到了自己的走向，并试图从悬崖边缘撤回。

And amidst these interesting conflicts of interest and worries about timing and all this stuff, the world sees where it's heading and tries to pull back from the brink.

但当时欧洲各国非但没有涌现出最杰出的政治家，反而被一些像和平绊脚石般的人物所拖累，比如德国皇帝威廉二世这类人。

But instead of having, you know, the greatest statesman Europe can produce during this time period, some of these countries are saddled with people who are like millstones around the neck of peace, people like Kaiser Wilhelm the second, the emperor of Germany.

领导力在这场冲突中是个耐人寻味的因素，我坚信如果一战爆发前夕德国有位俾斯麦那样才干的人物掌权，他们本可以把引信插回手榴弹里。

And leadership is such an interesting side of this conflict because I firmly believe had you had a guy of Otto von Bismarck's caliber in a position of authority in Germany when the First World War is, you know, on the verge of happening, that they could put the pin back in the grenade.

就是加夫里洛·普林西普在萨拉热窝象征性拔掉的那个。

You know, that Gavrielo Princip metaphorically pulled in Sarajevo.

我认为这本来是可以做到的，所需要的只是一些真正的外交智慧。

I think it could have been done, and all it would have required would have been some real, you know, diplomatic quality.

卓越固然很好，但我甚至认为那并非必需，只需一些德国人曾屡次展现的高水准外交手腕。

Brilliance would have been great, but I don't even think you needed that, just some some high quality workmanship which the Germans had produced time and again.

问题在于这个时期，他们受困于一位若以才能为标准根本不可能获得职位的统治者。

The problem was in this time period, they're stuck with a ruler who could not have gotten the job if merit had been one of the requirements, of having it handed to you.

威廉二世绝非伟大的领袖。

Kaiser Wilhelm II was not a great leader.

他完美诠释了世袭君主制如同掷骰子般的随机性。

He represents the most wonderful example you can easily think of, of what a role of the dice hereditary monarchy is.

有时你掷出好点数，得到天赋异禀的统治者，看着他们手握大权几乎令人欣慰。

And how sometimes you get a great role and you end up with a gifted ruler and then it almost seems wonderful that they've got so much power in their hands.

对吧？

Right?

因为若有人真正懂得运用权力行善，你甚至会庆幸他们拥有这般权力。

Because if someone really knows what to do with it and does good things with it, you kinda say to yourself, well, I'm glad they had the power to do those good things.

但这不就像掷骰子般充满偶然吗？

But that's a bit of a roll of the dice, isn't it?

就像你经常遇到那种人一样，你也会遇到邪恶、残忍或疯狂的人。

As often as you get one of those people, you get somebody who's evil or cruel or insane.

历史上有些人掷骰子时运气太差，但这为我们创造了精彩的核心历史素材，你懂的。

Some people throughout history have rolled very badly on the dice far too many times, but it creates good hardcore history work, you know, for us.

我是说，古代埃兰人掷出的数字总是意味着他们的王朝又迎来一位疯狂的统治者。

I mean the ancient Elamites used to roll whatever the number is that comes up that means you get yet another insane ruler in your dynasties.

读起来很有趣，但我可不想生活在那个时代。

Made for fun reading but I wouldn't have wanted to live under it.

在德国，这位现任领导人，这位现任皇帝（Kaiser就像俄国的沙皇一样，他们也有一个专制君主），这两个词都源自'凯撒'一词，这在二十世纪听起来已经不合时宜了，不是吗？

In Germany this current leader, this current Kaiser, Kaiser just like czar in Russia where they have an autocratic king guy too, both of those stem from the word Caesar, which right there in the twentieth century sounds anachronistic, doesn't it?

你知道，这是那个存在已久的旧世界的一部分。

You know, it's part of this old world that had existed forever.

我是说，在1914年之前的任何历史时期，追溯到美索不达米亚时代，国王和皇帝听起来都不显得过时，对吧？

I mean, king and emperor doesn't sound anachronistic at any time in history before 1914 going back to like Mesopotamia, does it?

在二十世纪听起来就有点奇怪了。

Just sounds weird in the twentieth century.

这展示了迈入二十世纪的世界有多么古老。

Shows you how old this world is that is marching into the twentieth century.

这场冲突中的三个主要大国都由皇帝、国王或沙皇统治。

Three of the major powers in this conflict are ruled by emperors, kings, or czars.

他们现在并非拥有绝对权力。

Now they don't have total power.

不过沙皇确实几乎拥有绝对权力。

Well, the czar almost does, really.

德国皇帝的权力经过几代人已被逐渐削弱。

The Kaiser's had his chipped away over a couple generations.

他必须与德国立法机构分享部分权力，那里有政党存在，负责处理预算和税收事务。

He has to share some power with the German legislature, which has political parties, they handle budgets and taxation.

但皇帝在战争、外交政策、政治任命等方面仍拥有巨大权力。

But the Kaiser still has a ton of power over war and foreign policy and political appointments and all that.

而他本人却只是个资质平庸之辈。

And he's just this below average guy.

关于德皇最讽刺的是，他声誉的巅峰竟是因为希特勒的出现。

The funny part about the Kaiser is that the best thing that ever happened to his reputation was Adolf Hitler.

因为在希特勒登场前，当你查看宣传资料和关于德皇的评论时，他被塑造成一个邪恶、恶毒的角色。

Because when you look at the propaganda and you read the stuff written about the Kaiser before Hitler comes along, And the Kaiser is treated as this evil character, malevolent.

你知道的，那种军国主义想征服世界的形象，政治漫画里刺刀滴血的画面。

You know, this militaristic wanna take over the world, blood falling off of the bayonet you see in the political cartoons.

而现在人们对他的态度几乎变成了觉得他可笑，或者满脑子都是自卑情结。

And now the attitude that people have towards him is that he's almost silly or that he's full of you know, he's just wracked with inferiority complexes.

他甚至值得同情。

He's almost to be pitied.

他有点智力迟钝，但并没有那种恶毒的邪恶特质。

He's a little mentally dull, but there isn't that malevolent evil sort of thing.

我认为部分原因是当你有希特勒作对比时，突然发现德皇不过是君主制骰子上一个稍差的点数。

And I think part of the reason why is when you have Hitler to compare someone to, all of a sudden you see that the Kaiser was just sort of a, you know, marginally bad roll on the monarchy dice.

值得一提的是，他与欧洲其他伟大君主制国家都有联姻关系，这是故事中一个有趣的转折，实际上也提供了某种重要性，因为当时欧洲皇室家族中都有其他欧洲皇室的亲戚。

For what it's worth, he was tied into all the other great monarchies in Europe, one of the funny twists in the story, and it actually provides, you know, something of importance because in Europe at this time, the royal families had relatives of other royal families in Europe in their families.

这些家族之间仍保持着联系，这提供了一种外交后门渠道，让这些统治者可以绕过传统外交，直接写信给统治其他国家的家族成员。

And these families still communicated with each other, which provides like a diplomatic back channel where these rulers can actually, you know, sidestep traditional diplomacy and just write the family member that rules the other country.

例如维多利亚女王——她可能是英国历史上最著名、最重要的女王，在位时间极长，在英国国力巅峰时期统治着大英帝国，当时号称日不落帝国——她的孙辈中，就包括德皇威廉二世。

For example, Queen Victoria, who may be the most famous queen in British history, may be the most important, ruled forever, presided over Britain during the height of Britain's power when she's controlling most of the world and the sun proverbially never set on the British Empire, Queen Victoria's grandchildren are in I mean, well, Kaiser Wilhelm's one of them.

他是维多利亚女王的外孙。

He's Queen Victoria's grandchild.

他是英国国王乔治五世的表弟。

He's the first cousin of the king of England, king George.

对吧？

Right?

不仅如此，俄国沙皇还娶了维多利亚女王的另一个外孙女。

Not just that, but the czar of Russia is married to another queen Victoria's grandchildren.

所以沙皇是她的女婿。

So the czar is her son-in-law.

同时也是威廉的表亲。

It's also Wilhelm's cousin.

而且你知道，当他感到不满或想与俄国人商讨某事时，他经常会坐下来给表弟尼基写封便笺。

And when, you know, he gets upset or he wants to talk to the Russians about something, he will often, you know, sit down and pen a quick note to cousin Nikki.

那就是沙皇尼古拉二世。

That would be czar Nicholas the second.

现在俄罗斯的沙皇只是君主制骰子掷出的又一个中等偏下的角色。

Now the czar in Russia is another average to low average role on the monarchy dice.

或许颇具讽刺意味的是，正如一些历史学家所指出的那样，在这个时期，如此强大的国家最终却由如此平庸的领导人统治。

It's perhaps telling and some historians have made it out to be that you end up with such mediocre leadership in such powerful countries during this time period.

这可能解释了为什么过去那些本可能导致战争的国际事件没有爆发，而现在却发生了，因为领导层太差劲了。

It might account for why you know these international incidents which could have led to war previously didn't but now are because the leadership sucks.

我的意思是，从预期来看，这些人本应是基于才能选拔的领导者。

I mean in terms of what you could expect that these people were merit based leaders.

要知道，你可以对斯大林、希特勒甚至墨索里尼（他在西方被塑造成某种小丑形象）发表任何看法。

You know, you can say what you want about a Stalin or a Hitler or even a Mussolini who's been portrayed again in the West like some sort of clown.

但所有这些人都曾是凭借实力一步步晋升的杰出人物。

But all of those people were formidable individuals who rose through the ranks at some level.

我是说，美国政客也一样。

I mean, same thing with American politicians.

比如像富兰克林·罗斯福这样的人，你可以对他有各种看法，但他确实是个了不起的人物，具备那些能让他们在某种程度上脱颖而出的品质，这需要某种基于才能的东西。

I mean, guy like Franklin Roosevelt, you can say what you want about him, but that's a formidable human being with qualities that allowed them to sort of rise to the top that requires a merit based something.

作为霍亨索伦家族的长子出生并不需要任何能力。

Being born into the Hohenzollern family as the oldest son doesn't require anything.

这纯粹是运气使然。

That's the luck of the draw.

如果凯撒的职位是基于才能选拔的，威廉二世根本不可能有机会接近这个位置。

If the job of Kaiser had been merit based, Kaiser Wilhelm II wouldn't have gotten anywhere near it.

然而，如果要避免战争爆发，他却是最该负责把保险栓插回手榴弹的人。

And yet he's the guy most responsible for putting the pin back in the grenade if war is going to be avoided here.

众所周知，他在解雇了俾斯麦又解雇了另一个人后曾说：'我就是自己的首相，意味着我要亲自掌管这一切。'

And you know, he famously said after he sacked Bismarck and then sacked another guy, he said, I'm I am my own chancellor, meaning I'm I'm gonna run all this myself.

但当你面对的不仅是在智力和才华等方面平庸之辈，更因为他们平庸到无法意识到自己的平庸时，你又能怎么办呢？

But what do you do when not only are they subpar in intelligence and brilliance and all that, but because they're subpar in it, they can't see that they're subpar in it.

他们连建议都听不进去。

They don't even take advice well.

我是说，故事中有个情节，德皇会要求他的某位军事将领去做一件荒谬愚蠢、足以输掉战争的蠢事。

I mean, at one point in the story, the Kaiser will ask one of his military leaders to do something that is ridiculous, stupid, lose the war stupid.

那位军事将领会说：这办不到。

And the military leader will say, it cannot be done.

德皇就会羞辱他说：你叔叔也是陆军元帅，他肯定会给我不同的答复。

And the Kaiser will embarrass him and say something to the effect of your uncle, who was also a field marshal, would have given me a different answer.

换句话说，即便那很愚蠢，他也会按我的意愿行事。

In other words, he would have done what I wanted him to do even if it was stupid.

就拿德皇来说，只是为了让你明白皇室是怎么回事，你会在脑海中回想起来，然后恍然大悟。

The Kaiser, just to show you how it is too, so you understand royalty, and you remember in your head, you go, oh, yeah.

这就是皇室的样子。

That's what royalty is like.

我刚才引用的这位军事领袖，一位名叫冯·毛奇的将军，将不得不在一战前改变德国军事演习系统的运作方式。他必须坚决表态，冒着职业生涯的风险告诉德皇：他们不能再延续传统——在德国国家军事演习中，无论德皇指挥哪一方，该方都必须获胜。

This same military leader I just quoted, a guy named Von Moltke, will have to change the way that the German war game system works before the First World War, And he will have to put his foot down and take a career risking move and tell the Kaiser that no longer can they keep up with the tradition that whatever side the Kaiser is commanding in the German national war games has to win.

仔细想想这一点。

Think about that for a second.

在冯·莫尔特克元帅坚持立场之前，无论德皇在军事演习中指挥哪一方——这些关乎国家安全的全国性演习——德皇指挥的一方总能自动获胜。

Before field marshal von Moltke puts his foot down, whatever side the Kaiser is commanding in these war games, these national maneuvers of national security importance, whatever side the Kaiser is commanding wins automatically.

各位，这也太荒唐了。

Come on folks that's goofy.

而且德皇本人就有点滑稽。

And the Kaiser's a little goofy.

他有一只手臂在出生时受损，萎缩无力。

He's got this one arm that was damaged during his birth which was withered and had no strength.

比如他连自己切食物都做不到，这对一个本就自卑的人来说实在太难堪了。

He couldn't cut his own food for example, which is so embarrassing to a guy who's already got an inferiority complex.

他去英格兰拜访表亲们，但他们并不怎么待见他。

He goes to England to spend time with his cousins, and they don't really care for him too much.

英国王室对威廉有些反感，而威廉渴望的不过是他们的关爱、认可，以及能像他们一样。

The British royal family is kind of turned off by William, and all William wants is kind of their love and approval and to be like them.

颇具讽刺的是，在这种近乎悲剧剧作家笔下的荒诞方式中，这位皇帝某种程度上也体现了当时整个国家的自卑情结。

And what's funny is in this sort of weird, almost like tragic playwright kind of way, the Kaiser sort of embodies the inferiority complex that his country has at this time too.

作为一个新兴国家登上世界舞台，他们觉得自己被当成了垃圾对待。

They're a new country on the stage and they think they're being treated like trash.

他们愤怒不已。

They're mad.

他们变得极度沙文主义。

They're they're chauvinistic.

在英国人和法国人眼中，他们就是那种突然冒出来、到处耀武扬威的暴发户。

That's how the British and the French and those people see them as just these upstart, you know, push their weight around kind of people.

但正如许多历史学家指出的，世界上没有一个崛起中的国家不会开始这样行事。

But as many historians have pointed out, there's no nation in the world that's up and coming that doesn't start to act like it.

而当他们这样做时，那些既得利益国家就会感到不满。

And when they do, the nations that already have it all don't like it.

就像今天美国看待中国试图挤入现有权力结构时的感受一样。

I mean, how do how does The United States kind of feel about China today sort of elbowing its way into the, you know, power structure here.

我是说，我们都明白他们配得上这样的地位。

I mean, we all understand they deserve it.

你看看他们的经济，看看所有迹象，他们正在崛起。

You look at their economics, look at all the signs, they they're they're up and coming.

但没人会觉得那个挤进来争取自己空间的人不是有点暴发户的感觉。

But nobody necessarily feels like that person pushing their way in to get their own space is anything other than a bit of an upstart.

在这个时期，美国也扮演着类似的角色。

During this time period, The United States plays a similar role.

他们正强行挤入世界强国之列，不管那些已在其中的国家是否乐意。

They're sort of elbowing their way into world power whether the people that are already there like it or not.

腾点地方出来。

Make some room.

我们来了。

Here we come.

德意志帝国当年就是这样的。

That's how the German Empire was.

当时弥漫着一种自卑感，而威廉二世将这种态度展现得淋漓尽致。

There was a feeling of inferiority, and Kaiser Wilhelm held that sort of attitude in spades.

但如果你阅读《泰晤士报》的报道，他被描绘成军国主义者，这个标签最常被用来指代德意志帝国，它将被视为这里发生的一切的罪魁祸首。

But if you read the stuff at the Times, he's portrayed as this militarist, and that is the the term that is most often used for this German Empire that will be blamed for everything that's happening here.

明白吗？

Okay?

军国主义。

Militarism.

整个十九世纪末期，人们都痴迷于军国主义，建造这些技术惊人且致命的武器装备，以及权力争夺。

The entire latter part of the eighteen hundreds, people focused on militarism and the building of these amazingly technologically deadly armaments and the race for power.

我的意思是，整个世界似乎都在武装到牙齿，即将爆发，而这一切都被归咎于这些军国主义者。

I mean, just seemed like the world was arming itself to the teeth and it was just gonna explode and it was these militarists who were responsible.

有些人研究纳粹德国，他们——我知道有些人——对国防军、精确的行军、制服以及纳粹所展现的那种军国主义法西斯态度着迷。

And people who look at Nazi Germany and who are I know people who are enthralled by the Wehrmacht and the precision marching and the uniforms and this whole sort of militaristic fascist attitude that the Nazis portrayed.

而我总是试图告诉他们，纳粹并未发明这些，他们只是在复兴德国常规的军事态度。

And I always try to tell them that the Nazis didn't invent this, that the Nazis were revitalizing regular German marshal attitudes.

这倒是挺有意思的。

That's the nice thing.

如果你不喜欢，那就是军国主义。

It's militarism if you don't like it.

如果你喜欢，那就是军事传统。

It's marshal if you do like it.

希特勒及其党羽所做的，正是复兴普鲁士传统的军事作风。

That's what Hitler and his cabal were doing, is bringing back traditional Prussian marshal practices.

那种机械般高效精准的队列行进训练等等，都是普鲁话。

That goose stepping robotic unbelievably efficient precision drilling and all that, those are Prussian qualities that go back to Frederick the Great.

这让人感到不安。

And it freaked out.

欧洲许多国家看到这种情形，只觉得他们充满威胁。

A lot of a lot of the countries in Europe looked at this and it just they looked dangerous.

他们看起来面目可憎。

They looked mean.

他们看起来充满沙文主义。

They looked chauvinistic.

他们看起来像是要接管你的国家，然后突然之间凭空建起这支庞大的海军，挑战英国，因为德皇读过西奥多·罗斯福读过的同一本书。

They looked like they wanted to take over your country, and then they were building this giant navy now all of a sudden out of nowhere, challenging Britain because the Kaiser had read that same book that Theodore Roosevelt read.

当阿尔弗雷德·赛耶·马汉决定写一本关于海军历史的书时，还有谁比他造成更大的破坏吗？

Did anybody do more damage than Alfred Thayer Mahan when he decides to write a book on naval history?

因为德皇、罗斯福读了这本书，为之着迷，让所有海军将领都读它，然后决定建造这支舰队与英国竞争，以免被英国轻视。

Because the Kaiser, Roosevelt, read it, was enthralled with it, made all his admirals read it, then decided he was gonna build this fleet to compete with Britain so that they wouldn't take him for granted.

他是个引人入胜的角色，完美展示了君主制骰子可能带来的后果。

Fascinating character, a perfect example though of what can happen with the role of the monarchy dice.

当然，现在欧洲所有重要的政府并不都是君主制和专制政府。

Now, of course, all the governments in Europe that matter are not all monarchies and autocratic governments.

例如，有著名的法国和英国政府。

There are the famous governments of France and Britain for example.

此时的法国再次成为共和国，在拿破仑之后尝试过恢复君主制，但他们更喜欢共和理念，于是又成了共和国。

France is a republic again by this time, having tried out royalty again after Napoleon decided that they liked the republic idea better and they're a republic.

到了这个时期，英国实际上也差不多如此。

And Britain might as well be by this time period.

他们虽然还有国王和王室之类的，但已经没有任何实权了。

They still have the king and the royalty and all that, but they don't have any power anymore.

在那个时期，皇室家族的地位就如同现在一样。

Were during this time period the way the royal family is now.

或许比当今更为愤世嫉俗的一代人看待现今王室时更具威严，也更能够左右公众舆论。

Maybe more gravitas and maybe more able to shift public opinion one way or the other than the more cynical generation today looks at the current royal family.

但在当时，他们的政治权威也就仅限于此了。

But at the time, that's about the extent of their political authority.

英国议会作为立法机构，当时拥有的权力就和现在一样大。

Parliament, the legislature of Britain has the power then like they have the power now.

但这形成了一种动态，使得法国和英国不得不担忧那些账本另一边的国家，比如俄罗斯，无需顾虑的事情。

But that creates a dynamic where the French and the British have to worry about things that, you know, the countries on the other side of the ledger or Russia don't have to worry about.

他们不得不担心政治局势。

They have to worry about the political situation.

他们必须担心政治对手会利用战争局势作为政治议题。

They have to worry about their political opponents, you know, using the war situation as a, you know, political issue.

在英国，整个事件引发了相当大的分歧。

In Great Britain, there's quite a bit of division over this whole thing.

从1914年6月28日大公遇刺，到7月23日奥匈政府向塞尔维亚发出那份著名最后通牒之间的这段时间，存在一个巨大的空白期。

And during this time period between when the archduke is assassinated, which happens on 06/28/1914, and when the Austro Hungarian government issues that famous ultimatum, the list of demands to Serbia, which happens on July 23, there's a big dead zone in there.

其实那并非真正的空白期。

Now it's not really a dead zone.

如果你当时每天早晨阅读报纸，会发现到处都有战争恐慌的报道和评论，每天都有新动态让你持续关注这场危机。

If you were reading the morning papers every morning in that period, there'd be war scares and comments here and there'd be something new every day to keep you focused on the crisis.

但从历史角度来看，并没有发生太多实质性事件。

But historically speaking, not much happens.

真正重要的活动都发生在幕后。

What was going on was behind the scenes.

开展了大量的外交斡旋。

A ton of diplomacy.

外交的主要途径之一是法国试图让英国达成某种硬性协议，明确一旦战争爆发五分钟内他们该采取的行动。

And one of the main avenues of diplomacy were the French trying to get the British, you know, into some sort of hard agreement for what they're gonna do if this war breaks out in five minutes.

因为他们与英国之间没有硬性协议，只有某种软性协议。

Because they don't have a hard agreement with the British, they sort of have a soft agreement.

他们没有白纸黑字签字的合同，只有握手协议，而他们开始对这种握手协议感到些许担忧。

Instead of a signed on the dotted line contract, they have a handshake deal and they're starting to get a little bit worried about the handshake deal.

他们担心即使当前伦敦执政政府会履行握手协议，但谁能保证他们能持续掌权？

And they're getting worried that even if the government in charge in London right now will come through on the handshake deal, who's to say they're going to be able to keep political power?

反对党可能利用这场战争问题来推翻政府，接管政权，然后对法国说'我们只有握手协议'。

Their opponents could use this war issue know, to topple the government, take control of the government, and then say to France, we only have a handshake deal.

很抱歉。

I'm sorry.

新政府将不会遵守这份握手协议。

The new government will not comply with the handshake deal.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我们不会卷入这场战争。

We're not getting involved in this war.

我们保持中立。

We're neutral.

我们有光荣孤立政策，海军会保护我们。

We have this splendid isolation, and the navy will protect us.

看看大不列颠的地图。

Look at a map of Great Britain.

他们国家周围有巨大的护城河，还有世界上最强大的海军保护。

They have a giant moat around their country and the greatest navy in the world to protect it.

如果他们愿意，完全可以选择置身事外。

They have the option of staying out of this thing if they want to.

法国人可没这个优势。

The French don't have that luxury.

他们可是在入侵名单上。

They're on the invasion list.

他们被德意志帝国列入了晚餐菜单，正寻求他人援助。

They're on the dinner menu for Imperial Germany and they're looking for people to provide some help.

他们有俄国人支持，但俄国人远在天边。

They've got the Russians but the Russians are a long way away.

但未被德意志帝国军队列入晚餐菜单，意味着英国的情况截然不同。

But not being on the dinner menu for the Imperial German military meant that the British situation was fundamentally different.

他们看不到自己卷入这场纷争能有什么真正的好结果。

They couldn't see a real positive outcome for them if they get involved in this whole affair.

我是说，法国人还有些东西可图。

I mean, there are things the French can gain.

他们在1870至1871年的战争中失去了几块领土给德国。

They got a couple of lost territories they lost to Germany in the war of eighteen seventy, eighteen seventy one.

他们想收复这些失地。

They'd like to get those back.

在最理想的情况下，如果冲突爆发，他们就能收复失地。

In a best case scenario, you know, if this conflict breaks out, they will get them back.

英国人并没有什么特别美好的前景可以期待。

The British don't have anything that wonderfully positive to look forward to.

是的。

Yes.

他们或许能减轻德国舰队的威胁，但到1912年时，人们已经普遍认为英国证明了德国无法在造舰方面与他们竞争——除非德国同时还想维持一支强大的陆军。

They might alleviate the threat of this German fleet, but by 1912, it was already felt that the British had proven that the Germans could not compete with them in the building of ships, not if they wanted to have a great land army at the same time.

所以到这时，这个问题基本已经解决了。

And so that's kind of out of the way by this point.

因此在这方面没什么大收获。

So no big gain there.

也许你能防止法国沦陷，因为如果法国倒下，就会出现1940年二战时的局面——突然间德国人隔着英吉利海峡与你对峙，那时这条护城河看起来就不那么宽了，对吧？

And maybe you protect France from falling because if France falls you get the situation you had in the second world war in 1940 where all of a sudden you have the Germans staring across the English Channel from you and then all of a sudden that moat doesn't look that wide, does it?

但为了这些并不多的好处，就去参加百年来的首次全球冲突...

But that's not a lot of positive stuff to go into the first global conflict in a hundred years for.

对英国人而言，这看起来是对他们极其盈利的商业活动的重大破坏。

To the British this looks like a massive disruption of their extremely profitable business ventures.

他们一直在抢购像诺曼·安格尔写的《大幻想》这样的书，每位历史学家都指出这本书有多么大的影响力。

They've been snapping up books like the Great Illusion written by Norman Angle where every historian points out how influential this book was.

安格尔试图向那个时代的人们解释，这种像俄罗斯轮盘赌扣动扳机一样不断被威胁的战争永远不会发生。

Where Angle is trying to explain to the people in that time period that this war that continually gets threatened like the Russian roulette trigger being pulled is never going to happen.

它不可能发生。

It can't happen.

在那个时期，世界已经变得过于相互依存。

The world has become too interdependent in that time period.

全球化程度太高了。

There's too much globalization.

这是所有这一切开始的早期阶段，电报提供了即时通讯，铁路和航运线路使贸易达到前所未有的高度，财富从未如此巨大，欧洲正处于金融力量的巅峰，而英国则是所有人金融力量的巅峰。

This is the early period where all that starts where you have the telegraph providing instant communication and the railroads and the shipping lines and trade had never been higher, wealth had never been grander, and Europe was at the height of its financial power and Britain was at the height of everybody's financial power.

你为什么要破坏这种经济形势？

Why would you mess with that economic situation?

像安格尔这样的人认为，发生的事情是维持现状如此有利可图，以至于没有什么值得为之开战。

Guys like Angle were saying that what had happened is it was so profitable to simply do business as usual that there was nothing worth going to war over.

安格尔的观点是，发动战争所能获得的任何利益，都将被摧毁现有经济体系所带来的损失所淹没——正是这个体系让所有人都能赚得盆满钵满。

What Angle was saying is that anything you would gain by launching a war would be dwarfed by what you would lose by destroying the system that was allowing everyone to make so much money.

有句老话说：'当商品不能跨越国界时，军队就会跨越国界'。

There's an old line that when goods don't cross borders, armies will.

但现在的情况恰恰相反。

Well, is the opposite situation.

他们的商品正疯狂地跨越国界。

Their goods are crossing borders like crazy.

所以像安格尔这样的人告诉你，基于这个公式（他们深信不疑的公式），战争是不可能发生的。

So guys like Angle tell you that, you know, because of that formula, and they believe in that formula, you can't have a war.

而英国人逐渐发现——在大公遇刺后到向塞尔维亚发出最后通牒前的这段空白期——安格尔至少是部分错了。

And what the British are starting to find out, you know, as this dead zone period from the end of the archduke's assassination to the ultimatum by Serbia, what the British are starting to find out is that Engel is at least partially wrong.

他关于'战争会摧毁让所有人致富的整个体系'的观点可能是正确的。

He may be right that you will destroy a whole system that's making everybody rich.

但他错在认为当权者会因此避免战争。

He seems to be wrong in thinking that the powers that be will avoid a war because of that.

英国政府很难让民众相信这对英国有利。

And the British government is having a hard time selling their people on the idea that this is good for Britain.

7月23日，奥匈政府终于对王储遇刺事件做出了期待已久的回应。

On July 23, finally, the long awaited response from the Austro Hungarian government to the killing of their heir to the throne.

他们向塞尔维亚政府发出了最后通牒。

They send an ultimatum to the government of Serbia.

这份最后通牒是历史上那种明显设计来被拒绝的文件之一。

The ultimatum is one of those documents history that is obviously designed to be rejected.

这些要求将彻底剥夺塞尔维亚的主权。

The demands would eviscerate Serbian sovereignty.

没有任何主权国家能接受这样的条件。

No sovereign state could agree to this.

而且他们只有48小时来回应所有这些条款，其中任何一条被拒绝就意味着战争。

And they're only given forty eight hours to respond to all these different points, the rejection of any one of which means war.

但在48小时期限届满前一天，塞尔维亚政府向俄国沙皇发信求援。

But the day before the forty eight hour deadline runs out, the Serb government sends a message to the czar of Russia asking for help.

他们写道：'我们无法自卫。'

And they wrote, quote, we cannot defend ourselves.

因此，我们恳请陛下尽快派遣援助。

Therefore, we pray your majesty to send help as soon as possible.

陛下已多次证明您先前的善意，我们坚信这一请求将在您慷慨的斯拉夫心灵中得到回应。

Your majesty has given many proofs of your previous goodwill, and we confidently hope that this appeal will find an echo in your generous Slav heart.

塞尔维亚人向奥匈帝国发回了答复。

The Serbs send a response back to the Austro Hungarians.

但这还不够。

It's not good enough.

奥匈帝国于7月28日——刺杀事件整整一个月后——宣战，并在五分钟后开始炮轰贝尔格莱德。

The Austro Hungarians declare war on July 28, exactly one month after the assassination, and they're shelling Belgrade in like five minutes.

俄罗斯人对此宣布动员令。

The Russians declare mobilization in response to this.

这是第一个外部大国启动其末日机制的时刻。

This is the moment when the first outside power turns on their doomsday device.

你看，当奥匈帝国和塞尔维亚动员时，其他国家并不惊慌，因为他们只是要打一场小规模战争，必须动员才能作战。

You see, when the Austro Hungarians and the Serbians mobilize, it doesn't freak anyone else out because they're gonna fight a little war against each other, and they have to mobilize to do that.

但当第一个与这些同盟体系挂钩的外部大国启动他们的末日装置时，其他国家都会感受到必须采取同样行动的压力。

It's when the first outside power tied to these alliance systems flicks on their doomsday device that everyone else is going to feel the pressure to do the same thing.

德国承受的压力最大，因为他们只有非常短暂的机会窗口。

Germany, the most pressure because they're the ones with the very short window of opportunity.

我认为军事计划的设计者施利芬伯爵计算出，他们大约有九百到九百五十小时来粉碎法国的潜力。

I think the designer of the military plans, Count Schlieffen, had figured out it was about nine hundred, nine fifty hours that they had to smash the potential of France.

法国不需要被彻底清除，但必须在约九百五十小时内被击溃，否则俄国人就会从东线带着已动员的军队压境。

She didn't have to be mopped up, she had to be smashed within nine fifty or so hours before the Russians would start to come in from the East with their armies now mobilized.

如果搞砸了，等德国人反应过来时，俄国人可能已经在柏林喝着咖啡抽着烟，用棍子戳笼子里的德皇了。

If you screwed that up, they could be in Berlin having coffee and cigarettes and poking the Kaiser with a stick in a cage by the time, you know, the Germans figured out what was going on.

所以俄国人一动员，危机就出现了——因为俄国人拥有灵活性，如果想的话一个月后就能让这些人回家。

So the minute the Russians mobilize, you have this crisis because the Russians have the flexibility if they want to of just sending those people home in a month.

动员对他们来说不意味着战争，但对德国人来说就是开战信号，因为他们必须启动自己的计划。

Mobilization doesn't mean war to them, but it does to the Germans because they've got to start their plans.

而他们每拖延一天，那950小时的窗口期就在不断缩短。

And every day they don't, that 950 window is shrinking.

故事发展到这个节点，军事计划开始接管政治进程，使得政客和外交官们无法采取必要措施来阻止这场冲突。

This is the point in the story where the military plans begin to take over the political process in a way that makes it impossible for the politicians and the diplomats to do what they need to do to potentially stop this conflict.

他们需要时间。

They need time.

7月26日，英国政府召集列强召开和平会议，试图协商解决此事。

On the July 26, the government of Britain calls a peace conferences for the major powers so they could hash this out, talk it out.

但各方都已没有时间。

Nobody's got the time.

俄国一启动动员机制，德国就感受到了压力。

Once the Russians hit the mobilization switch, the Germans are under pressure.

他们要求俄国停止动员。

They tell the Russians to stop.

俄国回应说：‘我们这只是针对奥匈帝国的行动。’

The Russians say, We're only doing this against Austria Hungary.

你知道，这不是针对你的。

This isn't meant, you know, against you.

不重要。

Doesn't matter.

德国人现在面临困境。

The Germans have a problem now.

他们开始四处询问各方：'你们参与吗？'

And they begin going to everyone else and saying, Are you in?

你们参与吗？

Are you in?

他们找到法国人，问道：'这场即将爆发的冲突，你们会加入吗？'

They go to the French and they say to the French, Are you in this conflict that's about to come out?

因为如果俄国人不解除动员，我们就要对他们开战了。

Because we're going to go to war with the Russians if they don't demobilize.

你们打算怎么做？

What are you going to do?

法国人说，我们会根据自身利益行事。

The French said, we're gonna act in accordance with our interests.

德国人则说，听着。

And the Germans said, well, listen.

如果你想置身这场战争之外，只需将你们边境所有要塞的钥匙交给我们保管，直到东线战争结束。

If you wanna stay out of this war, all you have to do is hand us the keys to all your forts on our fortified border until the war in the East is over.

这作为你们保持中立的担保，我们就认为你们不参战。

That's as a pledge of your good behavior, and we'll consider you out of this war.

这对法国政府而言，就像当初塞尔维亚面对那些要求一样不可能接受。

That is as impossible for the French government to do as the demands on Serbia were for the Serbians to do.

法国人做不到这点。

French can't do that.

你想想，把自己国家安全的钥匙交给历史上最敌对的对手？

That's an you know, hand over your national security keys to your most antagonistic historic enemy?

我看不行。

I don't think so.

德国人肯定心知肚明。

And the Germans must have known that.

他们早知无法让法国置身事外，所以才制定了同时击败两大强国的宏伟军事计划。

They knew they couldn't keep France out of this conflict, which is why they had these fantastic military plans to defeat two powers.

他们真正希望保持中立的国家是英国。

The country they were really hoping to keep out of the conflict was Great Britain.

他们不断与英国谈判，声称'你们在这件事上没有利益关系'。

And they kept negotiating with Britain saying, you know, you don't have any deal here.

我们是表亲。

We're cousins.

我们都是盎格鲁-撒克逊人。

We're both Anglo Saxons.

我们同宗同源。

We're the same race.

要知道，法国才是你们历史上的宿敌。

You know, French are your historic enemies.

你们真的要和他们合作吗？

Are you really going to work with them?

7月30日，英国首相在日记中写道：‘欧洲局势至少比昨天恶化了一分，德国试图通过承诺不吞并法国本土（除殖民地外）、荷兰或比利时领土来换取我们在战争中的中立，这种相当无耻的行径并未使局势好转。’

On the July 30, the British prime minister wrote in his diary, quote, the European situation is at least one degree worse than it was yesterday, and it has not been improved by a rather shameless attempt on the part of Germany to buy our neutrality during the war by promises that she will not annex French territory, except colonies, or Holland or Belgium.

他写道：‘德国外交手段中透着某种极其粗鲁且幼稚的东西。’

There is something very crude, he writes, and childlike about German diplomacy.

与此同时，法国人开始像俄国人那样，从相反方向施加压力。

Meanwhile, the French are beginning to press in the opposite sense as the Russians have been doing for some time.

他指的是伦敦——这座处于极度消沉与瘫痪状态的城市——此刻全体反对英国介入战争。

The city, he means London, which is in a terrible state of depression and paralysis, is for the time being all against English intervention.

‘我认为今日前景一片黑暗。’（引述结束）

I think the prospect very black today, end quote.

但即将发生的事件将扭转英国的情绪，这场战争中会形成某种正邪对抗的叙事框架。

But something will happen that will change the mood in Britain, Something that will help to create a good guy bad guy narrative in this war.

正如我早前所说，由于这场战争对二十世纪及二十一世纪历史影响深远，核心问题之一就是：究竟谁该为此负责。

You know, as I told you earlier, one of the key issues because this war is so important to the rest of the twentieth century and twenty first century history is whose fault it all is.

英国人在这一时期非常关注的是，如果他们干预，必须站在正义的一方。

And the British are very concerned during this time period that they be, if they intervene, intervening on the right side.

谁是坏人？

Who's the bad guy?

这将取决于事态发展。

It's gonna depend on what happens.

这再次表明德国的战争计划将他们置于一个困境：为了战争计划成功，你不得不制造最终会导致战争失败的战略问题。

That's again where the German war plans put them in a situation where for the war plan to succeed you have to create strategic problems that are going to cost you the war.

德国人此刻最需要做的就是让英国置身于这场战争之外，但他们的作战计划却包含一项必然会将英国卷入战争的要求。

The biggest thing the Germans need to do here is keep the British out of this war, but the war plans involve a requirement that will bring the British into the war.

德国人无法沿着法德共同边界进攻法国。

The Germans can't attack the French along their mutual border.

那条边界线上布满了堡垒。

That border is full of forts.

这是自罗马时代以来世界历史上防御最严密的边境线之一。

It's the most one of the most fortified borders throughout world history ever since Roman times.

这片区域域，约120英里长的战线。

It's the same area, about a 120 mile front, that will become the Maginot Line after this war and before the Second World War.

在这段时期，战线。

During this time period, there are fantastically technologically sophisticated forts all through this 120 mile border between Germany and France with interlocking fields of fire and large garrisons.

德军并非如此，他们无法做到这一点。

It's not that the Germans can't defeat that.

他们在1870年，1871年就做到了。

They did in 1870, 1871.

那时这就是入侵的路线。

That was the route of invasion back then.

问题在于德军无法在大约950小时的时间窗口内击败他们。

The problem is the Germans can't defeat them within that nine hundred and fifty or so hour window.

等到德军突破那些堡垒时，俄军已经攻入柏林和西里西亚等地。

By the time the Germans smash their way through those forts, the Russians are in Berlin and Silesia and everywhere else.

对吧？

Right?

因此，德国人在这项赢得两线战争的计划中，唯一能想到的办法就是攻入法国无人防守的区域。

So there's only one thing the Germans can see their way to doing as part of this plan to win the two front war and that's to smash into France in the part of France that's undefended.

但法国无人防守或防御薄弱的原因，正是因为该区域不与德国接壤。

But the reason the part of France that's undefended or less defended than this fortified border is less defended is because it isn't on the border with Germany.

该区域与多个中立国接壤。

It's on the border with a bunch of neutral states.

这些中立国将成为德军从德国进军法国的必经之路。

These are going to have to be the highways the German army uses to get from Germany to France.

唯一的问题是，这些中立国的中立地位受英国政府保障已有七十五年之久。

The only problem is that those highways neutrality is guaranteed by the British government and has been for seventy five years.

根据德国战争计划的这些条款，即将发生的可能是史上最严重的错误决策。

What is about to happen as a result of the stipulations of those German war plans is potentially the greatest mistake ever made.

我的意思是，这绝对能列入我心目中十大历史性错误决策之一。

I mean, I'd put it on my top 10 list somewhere, greatest mistakes ever made.

作为德国人，我实在难以想象自1871年统一以来，还有什么比这更严重的国家战略误判。

And if you're a German, I have to believe that I a hard time figuring out what is a greater mistake for the entire history of your nation as a unified, you know, country since 1871.

我实在难以找出比这更严重的错误，因为其他许多可能被列为最重大错误的候选事件，都是因这个错误而引发的。

I have a hard time finding something you could label as a greater mistake than this one because so many of the other candidates you might put as your greatest mistake only happened because of this mistake before it.

入侵比利时对德国而言是多方面的灾难。

The invasion of Belgium is a disaster for Germany on so many fronts.

这正是我们现在讨论的内容。

And that's what we're talking about here.

最初，在19世纪末20世纪初时，荷兰也曾被列为德军行军通道的候选国家之一。

Originally, you know, way back in like the late eighteen hundreds, early nineteen hundreds, Holland had also been on the list of countries to be used as a highway for the German army.

但随着时间推移和作战计划的完善，最终范围缩小到只剩比利时。

But since that time and as the war plans were refined, it was just narrowed down to just Belgium.

德国人天真地希望比利时人会主动让路，就像让军队列队站在街道两侧，目送德军通过一般。

And the Germans were sort of naively hoping that the Belgians would just step aside, like line their army up on both sides of the street and watch the Germans march through.

英国和普鲁士——这些德国人的祖先——正是1839年《伦敦条约》的签署国，该条约承诺保障比利时的中立地位。

The British and the Prussians, you know, who are sort of the forefathers of these Germans, were two of the signatories to something called the Treaty of London in 1839 that pledged to defend Belgium's neutrality.

顺便说个极具悲剧性讽刺的关联：比利时在一战前的角色，与波兰在二战前的角色惊人地相似。

In a wonderfully tragic, ironic sort of connection too, by the way, the role Belgium is going to play leading to the First World War is very similar to the role Poland played leading up to the second.

在这两种情况下，这些国家都是将英国拖入战争的原因。

In both cases, those countries were the reason Britain got dragged into the conflict.

二战前，英国曾试图通过设置路障并保证波兰的独立来阻止希特勒看似无止境的野心。

Before the second world war, Britain had tried to stop Hitler's seemingly endless ambition by putting a roadblock in his way and guaranteeing the independence of Poland.

希特勒无视这一保证，入侵波兰，英国随即参战。

Hitler ignored that guarantee, went into Poland, and Britain's in the war.

第一次世界大战中，比利时正经历着同样的情况。

In the first world war, the same thing is happening with Belgium.

正如我们所说，德国策划者看不到在不侵犯比利时中立的情况下赢得这场战争的可能。

The German planners can see no way to win this war without violating Belgium's neutrality, as we said.

但正是这一点使其可能成为德国历史上最严重的错误——因为对比利时的侵犯最终将一个据某位历史学家所言、在宣战前两天还倾向于保持中立的英国拖入了战争。

This is what makes it the greatest mistake though potentially in all German history because violating Belgium ends up taking a Britain that one historian says as recently as two days before they declare war on Germany is leaning toward neutrality.

想想真是令人惊叹。

That's amazing to think about.

就在参战前两天，英国政府还倾向于保持中立。

Two days before they enter the war, the government is leaning toward neutrality.

是什么改变了这一点？

What changed that?

对比利时的入侵。

The invasion of Belgium.

从德国的角度来看，对比利时的入侵造成了两个可怕的后果。

The invasion of Belgium does two terrible things if you're looking at this from Germany's point of view.

首先是它几乎在一夜之间彻底改变了英国的政治和公众舆论。

The first thing is it changes British political and public opinion almost overnight on a dime.

正如英国首相赫伯特·阿斯奎斯所说，他当然希望因与法国的握手协议而更深入地介入这场迫在眉睫的战争。

As the British prime minister Herbert Asquith put it, he, of course, wants to get more involved in this looming war because of the handshake deal with France.

他说德国人给比利时人的最后通牒让事情变得简单了。

He said that the ultimatum the Germans give to the Belgians simplify matters.

突然间，那些试图说服英国其他民众相信他们在这场迫近的欧洲大陆战争中有利害关系的人，获得了有力的论据。

All of a sudden, the people who are trying to convince the rest of Britain that they have a dog in this continental war looming up have some real ammunition.

首先是与比利时人签订的条约。

The first thing is a signed treaty with the Belgians.

这可不是口头协议那么简单。

That's not a handshake deal.

这是白纸黑字的条约，且历史悠久，正如英国长期以来将比利时海峡港口视为国家安全要地，绝不容其落入敌对强权之手。

That's in ink, and it's long standing as is the national security concern that Britain has had for a very long time of keeping the Channel ports in Belgium out of the hands of some dangerous hostile power.

在英国历史的大部分时期，那个危险的敌对势力是法国，但如今他们称德皇为'新拿破仑'——若其入侵比利时，必将控制那些海峡港口。

Throughout most of Britain's history that dangerous hostile power was France, but they're calling the Kaiser the new Napoleon and if he goes into Belgium, he's going to have those channel ports.

因此，原本那些曲高和寡的论调，因比利时事件开始触动民众的神经。

So, what had been a more sort of highbrow argument that didn't really appeal to the gut is changing because of Belgium.

但比利时事件最能激起民愤的，还是其宣传效应。

The most important appeal to the gut though that Belgium has is the propagandaPR side of this whole thing.

比利时事件彻底摧毁了德国在国际舆论中的声誉。

Belgium is what destroys Germany's reputation in terms of global public opinion.

虽然总有人指责德国是邪恶好战的军国主义国家，诸如此类。

I mean there had always been people who called Germany this evil malevolent militaristic country and what have you.

但在世界舞台上，德军入侵比利时的行为，成为这场冲突中列强迄今最激进的侵略行径。

But on the world stage as soon as the Germans invade Belgium they participate in the most aggressive act so far by any of the major powers in this conflict.