雷·达里奥谈经济趋势、投资与不确定性中的决策

哈佛商业评论推出全新的数字阅读体验。

A new digital reading experience from Harvard Business Review is here.

这就是HBR互动刊。

It's the HPR interactive issue.

滑动翻页，搜索每期内容，并收听带音频朗读的文章。

Swipe through pages, search each issue, and listen to articles with audio narration.

目前，所有HBR印刷版杂志的订阅者均可使用互动刊。

The interactive issue is available now to all HBR print magazine subscribers.

您尚未订阅HBR印刷版杂志吗？

Not yet a subscriber to the HBR print magazine?

立即访问 hbr.org/interactiveissue 订阅。

Subscribe today at hbr.org/interactiveissue.

我是阿迪·伊格纳修斯。

I'm Adi Ignatius.

我是艾莉森·比尔德，欢迎收听HBR Ideacast。

I'm Alison Beard, and this is the HBR Ideacast.

所以，艾莉森，似乎大家普遍认为，如今成为高管从未如此困难。

So, Allison, there seems to be a consensus that it has never been harder to be an executive.

其中一部分是内部因素。

Some of it is internal.

我们面临着技术要求。

We have technology requirements.

我们面临人才挑战，并且构建了越来越复杂的组织，考验着我们的管理能力。

We have talent challenges, and we've created ever more complex organizations that test our ability to manage them.

但很大一部分是外部因素。

But a lot of it is external.

我们生活在一个不稳定的全球环境中，必须理解和应对，才能有效领导。

There's an unstable global environment that we have to understand and manage to lead effectively.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Of course.

经济趋势、地缘政治、技术颠覆。

Economic trends, geopolitics, technological disruption.

我们已经说过一次了。

We've said it once.

我们再说一遍。

We'll say it again.

这些是每个行业和大多数层级的领导者都必须密切关注并形成见解的问题。

These are all things that leaders in every industry and most levels have to stay on top of and have a view on.

因此，我希望今天的嘉宾能就如何思考这个宏观环境提供一些有趣的见解。

So I'm hoping today's guest offers some interesting insights on how to think about this big macro environment.

他有着长期成功的投资经验，并花大量时间思考全球力量如何重塑商业和投资环境。

He has a long history of successful investing, and he spends a lot of time thinking about how global forces are remaking the business and investment climate.

他是桥水基金的创始人雷·达利奥，根据多数说法，桥水是全球最大的对冲基金，也是多本著作的作者，最近的一本是《国家如何破产：大周期》。

He's Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, which by most accounts is the world's largest hedge fund, and is the author of several books, including most recently, How Countries Go Broke, The Big Cycle.

我与雷进行了对话，探讨了他从投资生涯中学到的经验，以及他认为领导者在当今世界最需要关注什么。

I sat down with Ray to speak about what he's learned from a career investing and what he thinks leaders need to focus on most in today's world.

如果从经济开始说起，我觉得我认识的每个人对股市都持一致的乐观态度。

If I could start with the economy, I feel like everyone I talk to is in lockstep sort of bullish mode about the stock market.

共识总让我感到担忧。

Consensus always scares me.

你能给我谈谈你认为当前市场处于什么阶段吗？

Give me a sense of where you think we are in terms of the market.

我讨厌一上来就下结论，而不是先讲清楚机制是如何运作的。

I hate to start with conclusions rather than how the machine works.

我想先退一步来看。

I'd like to start by stepping back.

我从历史研究中学到了很多。

I learned from the study of history.

我研究了过去五百年里储备货币兴衰以及帝国更替的周期。

I studied the last five hundred years of cycles of why reserve currencies go up and down and then why empires go.

这其中涉及五大关键力量的相互作用。

And there are five big forces that interact.

第一股力量是货币、债务、经济和市场的动态。

The first force is the money, debt, economy, markets dynamic.

但与此相关的是左右政治力量，它会引发某种动态。

But related to that force is the internal left right political force that creates a certain dynamic.

然后是第三股力量，即世界秩序。

And then there's a third force, which is the world order.

各国在地缘政治秩序中如何相互对待？

You know, how do countries deal with each other in the geopolitical order?

第四股力量贯穿历史，是自然事件。

The fourth force throughout history is acts of nature.

干旱、洪水和大流行病造成的死亡人数和颠覆的秩序，比前三者加起来还多。

Droughts, floods and pandemics have killed more people and changed toppled more orders than the first three.

第五股力量是技术，即人类的创造力等等。

And then number five is technology, man's inventiveness and so on.

我认为，我们正处在一个拥有法定货币的世界，换句话说，这种货币的印刷没有限制。

I think that we are in a world that has a fiat currency that doesn't have, in other words, a limitation to the printing of that currency.

当我们背负大量债务时，一个人的债务就是另一个人的资产。

And when we have a lot of debt, one man's debts are another man's assets.

因此，当世界持有大量这些债券，而这些债券又需要大量抛售时，再加上重大的地缘政治冲突，各国开始思考：自己是否会遭到制裁？比如中国仅持有这些债券时，会担心是否会发生类似俄罗斯或二战时期日本的情况——这些债券的偿付可能无法兑现。

And so when the world is holding a lot of those bonds, and when there's a large supply of those bonds that has to be sold, And there's a great geopolitical conflict in which countries start to think about will they be sanctioned, meaning when China is only holding those bonds, and they think, will it be possible that what happened to Russia or what happened to Japan in World War II, that you don't get paid on those bonds.

这种动态改变了供需平衡。我们现在所处的阶段，是大多数发达国家，尤其是G7国家，以及某种程度上的中国和日本，正处在长期周期的尾声，意味着他们不能再像过去那样随意增加政府债务。

That dynamic alters the supply demand balance of understand what's now happening, we are at the end of most of the developed countries, particularly, let's say the G7 countries and also China to some extent and Japan to some extent, they're at the end of a long term cycle, meaning that they can't increase the government's debts the way they are.

我们正处于一个政治周期中，当我们展望未来时，会发现即将迎来中期选举。

And we're in a political cycle so that when we look at ahead and we say what will happen ahead, we're in a situation where we'll have midterm elections.

就目前来看，中期选举的结果很可能是民主党赢得众议院等席位。

And the likelihood of those midterm elections is probably at this moment, I would say probably the Democrats will take the House and so on.

我正在观察这一趋势，同时也关注巨大的财富和价值观差异，这些差异已造就了一个两极分化的经济：占人口10%的顶层群体正处于繁荣甚至泡沫中，而占人口60%的底层群体则处境艰难，这背后的影响不容忽视。

I'm looking at that and I'm looking also at the very large wealth differences and values differences that has created a two part economy in which there's the top 10% of the population, which is in a boom or maybe a bubble, and the bottom 60% of the population, which is really hurting, and the implications of that.

因此，当我展望未来时，我认为我们将步入更加艰难的时期。

So when I look ahead, I think we are going to be heading into more difficult times.

像税收这类问题将如何融入这一局面？

Things like how does taxation enter into this?

这会催生财富税吗？

And does that create wealth taxes?

如果征收财富税，会不会导致人们出售资产来缴税？

And if you have the wealth taxes, does that create selling of assets to pay those wealth taxes?

我认为这些因素共同作用下的周期将会变得更加艰难。

I think those parts operating and that cycle is going to become more difficult.

你知道，纵观我成年后的整个人生，我一直被告诉赤字是个问题。

You know, I feel like for all of my adult life, you know, I've been told the deficit is a problem.

债务是个问题。

Debt is a problem.

现在，我不知道，我们国家的债务高达38万亿美元，远超GDP的100%。

Right now, don't know, we have 38,000,000,000,000 sort of national debt, way over 100% of GDP.

那么，债务在什么情况下才会真正成为问题？我一直在告诉人们债务很重要，但债券市场似乎对此习以为常。

At what point does debt I've been telling people debt matters and the bond market seem to live with it.

人们仍然在购买美国债务。

People still are buying American debt.

债务在什么时候才会变得重要？

At what point does this debt matter?

其运作方式是，信贷系统非常类似于循环系统，将信贷输送到整个体系中。

The way it works is that the credit system is very much like the circulatory system that brings credit throughout the system.

如果信贷流向那些能用它产生收入来偿还债务的人，那么这是一个非常、非常、非常健康的系统。

And if it goes to those who use it and produces an income to service the debt, then it's a very, very, very healthy system.

但究竟是什么机制限制了债务的增长？

But what are the mechanics that create a limitation to debt?

实际情况是，就像循环系统一样，信贷推动支出，从而产生债务，而债务必须被偿还。

What happens is, like that circulatory system, credit, which enables spending, creates debt, and debt has to be serviced.

当债务偿还金额相对于收入上升时，无论对整个经济、政府还是每个个体而言，都会导致债务偿还挤压其他支出。

And when you raise debt service payments or debts relative to income, it's true for the whole economy, it's true for the government, it's true for every part, that that squeezes out debt service payments start to squeeze out spending.

换句话说，你有收入，然后要支付债务，剩下的部分才能用于其他开支。

So in other words, you have income, then you have debt service payments and what's left over is what you can spend on other things.

当这种挤压发生时，就像循环系统中的斑块，最终会引发问题。

And when that squeezing out happens, it's like plaque in the circulatory system that then creates a problem.

第二部分是债务人与债权人之间的关系，即一个人的债务是另一个人的资产。

The second part of that is the debtor creditor idea of one man's debts or another man's assets.

因此，这些资产必须具有吸引力。

So they have to be attractive assets.

当他们持有的债务过多，而你又大量出售债务时，市场对这些债务的需求可能不足以匹配供给，这就迫使中央银行采取企业和个人无法做到的措施——印钞并购买这些债务，从而使其贬值。

And when they hold too much debt and that you're then selling a lot of debt, the demand for that debt may not be adequate relative to the supply, which causes central banks to do what companies and individuals can't do, which is print money and buy that debt, which devalues it.

这就像是我说：当你表示不想背负太多债务时。

So it's very much like me saying, when you say, I don't want to get into too much debt.

这就像告诉年轻人：别吃太多胆固醇，别吸烟，别做这些事，因为你的健康会恶化。

It's like telling a young person, Don't eat too much cholesterol, don't smoke, don't do this, because your health is going to deteriorate.

你的财务健康也会恶化。

Your financial health will deteriorate.

当你问心脏病什么时候发作时，它会在上述两种情况交汇时发生。

When you're asking when the heart attack will come, it'll come when those two things converge.

当这些还款被挤压，而这些国家都没有足够的资金时，它就会到来。

It'll come when they're squeezing out those payments like none of these countries have enough money.

看看英国，看看法国，它们不能再加税，不能再扩大赤字，也无法削减支出。

Look at The UK, look at France, they can't tax more, They can't go on deeper deficits and they can't cut spending.

这就是当你接近‘心梗’阶段时，这种动态的本质。

That's the nature of the dynamic of when you're approaching the stage of the heart attack.

因此，基于你对这些历史周期的研究，当前最大的风险是什么？

So given the research you've done into these historic cycles, what's the biggest risk out there now?

我们回望2008年，说好吧，次级抵押贷款，也许人们注意到了，也许没有。

We look back at 2008 and say, okay, subprime mortgages, maybe people saw that, maybe they didn't.

最大的风险是不是你刚才提到的这些国家债务和整个系统中的债务水平？

Is the biggest risk what you're talking about now, these levels of kind of national debt and debt throughout the system?

或者，你知道吗？从这种历史周期的角度来看，还有其他你更担心的问题吗？

Or, you know, is there something else that you're concerned about again, maybe from this historic cyclical perspective?

我先从更宏观的角度来回答这个问题。

I'm going to first answer it in the bigger sense.

关键在于我们如何彼此相处，以应对所有这些问题。

It's how we deal with each other to deal with all of these issues.

但我要把话题聚焦到你的债务问题上。

But I'm going to narrow it down to your debt question.

存在一个泡沫，以及泡沫是如何破裂的。

There's the a bubble and how a bubble gets burst.

我们面临这种债务动态，这意味着如果需求相对于供给不足，利率就必须上升，而这会抑制经济活动，从而引发问题。

We have this debt dynamic, which means that either interest rates have to go up if there's not enough demand relative to the supply, and that curtails economic activity and then causes a problem.

这正是传统意义上泡沫破裂的原因。

That's what causes bubbles to pop in the traditional sense.

或者，他们介入并印钞购买这些债券，从而造成货币通胀。

Or then they come in there and they have to print money and buy those bonds, which creates a monetary inflation.

这种动态自然会导致滞胀环境。

And that dynamic naturally leads itself to a stagflationary kind of environment.

我们必须理解泡沫是如何形成的。

We have to understand how bubbles occur.

股票为什么会大幅上涨？

How does stocks go up a lot?

比如，为什么20年代会导致30年代？

And why did the 20s, for example, lead to the 30s.

这与财富和货币之间的区别有关。

And that has to do with the difference between what wealth and money is.

财富很容易创造，我们到处都在创造财富，但那不是货币。

Wealth is it's easy to create wealth and we're creating wealth all over the place, but it's not money.

举个例子，如果我创立了一家独角兽公司，我说我要以十亿美元的估值融资五千万美元。

Wealth, for example, if I issue, I'm creating a unicorn and I say, I'm going to raise $50,000,000 for a billion dollar valuation.

全世界的人都说，那你就是个亿万富翁，你创造了十亿美元的财富。

The world and everybody says, then you're a billionaire and that you've created a billion dollars worth of wealth.

所以财富可以大幅增长，但除非你把财富变现成货币来花，否则它本身毫无价值。

And so wealth can go up a lot, but wealth is not worth anything unless you sell it for money in order to spend.

因此，当财富相对于货币大幅上升，而人们又需要将财富转换为货币时，就会导致资产被抛售等等。

And so when wealth rises relative to money a lot, and there's a need to be able to convert that wealth into money, then that causes assets to be sold and so on.

纵观历史，问题在于当对货币的索取过多而货币本身不足时，就会出现一种动态，要么导致违约，要么通过增发货币来避免违约。

All through history, the issue is when there are too many claims on money, and there's not enough money, there's a dynamic that either leads to defaults or the production of more money to prevent the defaults.

你知道，还有另一个话题看似至关重要，但在某些政策层面却似乎没有得到应有的重视。

You know, another topic that seems critical and yet doesn't seem to be taken seriously, you know, at certain policy levels.

无论如何，你已经谈论这个问题很多年了。

Anyway, you've been talking about this for years.

感觉并没有形成一股真正想要解决不平等问题的浪潮，至少在美国是这样。

It doesn't feel like there's exactly a bandwagon, you know, of people who wanna solve the inequality problem, at least in The US.

你知道，这种程度的不平等能够持续下去吗？

You know, can these levels of inequality be sustained?

不，它们无法持续。

No, they can't be sustained.

对我来说，这就像一遍又一遍地看同一部电影。

This is for me like watching the movie for the umpteenth time, you know?

这是这个机制运作的本性。

It's the nature of how the machine works.

资本主义的一个巨大优势在于，创新能够不断涌现，从而提升生活水平，但同时也造成了巨大的财富差距，而这些差距会因财富拥有者能让子女获得更好的教育等而代代相传。

One of the great things about capitalism is this inventiveness can come along and then you raise living standards and so on, but it creates big differences in wealth that then become perpetual because then those who earn wealth can then have their kids have better educations and so on.

所以如果你回顾工业革命、第二次工业革命，它们导致了镀金时代，进而催生了强盗大亨和1907年的恐慌，你又看到了这种模式的重现。

And so if you take the industrial revolution, second industrial revolution, that leads to the gilded age, that then leads to robber barons and the panic of nineteen oh seven, you see this pattern again.

因此，我们面临着左右派之间不可调和的分歧。

So what we have are irreconcilable differences between the left and the right.

这种分歧如此尖锐，以至于整个系统正在丧失其效力。

So irreconcilable that the system is losing its power.

人们对民主的信念正在消退，他们不再会说：‘我们通过投票来解决，然后妥协’之类的。

The belief in democracy is being, you know, they won't say I'm gonna settle this by having a vote and we're going to compromise and so on.

不，现在越来越变成一种不计代价也要赢的局面。

No, it increasingly becomes a win at all cost type of dynamic.

你看到当前盛行的民粹主义，看到日益加剧的两极分化，而这通常会导致冲突。

You see the populism that's operating now and you see greater polarity and that typically leads to a conflict.

上世纪30年代，我们如今在许多方面所经历的，与当年非常相似。

In the 30s, the period that we're going through in many cases last time around was quite like the 30s.

四个民主国家选择了转变为专制政体。

Four democracies chose to become autocracies.

那么，哪一方会胜出呢？

So which sides win out?

这就是我们所处的动态。

That's the dynamic that we're in.

如果我纵观历史上的社会，看看什么造就了成功，其实非常简单。

If I look at societies over time and what produces success, it's very simple.

首先，好好教育你的孩子，让他们有能力工作并富有成效，同时懂得文明礼仪。

First, educate your children well so that they're capable of working and being productive, and also understand civility.

然后，建立一个人们能够良好协作、遵守规则与良好领导、共同实现生产力的社会，从而使大多数人繁荣昌盛。

And then come out to a society in which people worked well together, following rules and guidance with good leadership, to be able to be productive together so that most people prosper.

第三，不要卷入战争。

And number three, don't get into a war.

不要陷入内战、破坏一切的内部冲突，也不要卷入外部战争。

Don't get into a civil war, an internal war that disrupts all that or an external war.

如果你能很好地做到这几点，就能拥有一个成功的社会。

If you could do those things well, you'll have a successful society.

那么，谁具备智慧和能力，能让国家对大多数人有利，这就是问题所在。

So who has the intelligence and the capability to make the country good for most people is the question.

这种愿景属于谁呢？

And whose vision is that?

在愿景上存在着巨大而巨大的差异。

And there's very, very big differences in vision.

我看不出有任何途径可以让我们将这些不同立场的人团结起来，遵守规则，并做出必要的变革，以实现平衡，从而为大多数人创造生产力和繁荣。

There is not a path that I can see to saying we're going to bring all those sides together, we're going to follow the rules, and we're going to make the important changes that will bring us into balance to create productivity and prosperity for most people.

你提到技术是关键力量之一，以及技术的周期。

So you mentioned technology as one of the key forces and the cycles of technology.

我对你的AI观点很感兴趣。

I'm interested in your take on AI.

我的意思是，你可以没完没了地谈论AI，你可以想象。

I mean, talk about AI endlessly, as you can imagine.

我不知道AI是不是被过度炒作了。

I don't know if it's overhyped.

我不知道它是不是被低估了。

I don't know if it's underhyped.

我感兴趣的是，你认为它将在多大程度上重塑我们的经济。

I'm interested in to what extent you think it's gonna reshape our very economy.

我也想知道你是否使用它，如果用了的话，是怎么用的。

And I'm also interested in how you use it, if you do.

我五十年前创立了桥水。

I founded Bridgewater fifty years ago.

今年是第五十年。

This is the fiftieth year.

我想说，从四十年前开始，我养成了一个习惯——我建议每个人都这么做：当我做决定时，我会思考我用来做这些决定的标准是什么？

I'd say starting forty years ago, I started to get in the habit, which I'd recommend everybody do, is when I was making decisions, I would think what are the criteria that I'm using to make those decisions?

我会把它们写下来。

And I would write them down.

它们是否是我所谓的决策原则？

And were they what I would call my principles for making decisions?

这帮助我理解了事物运作的机械原理。

And that helped me understand how things work mechanistically.

因果关系是什么？这些原则又是什么？

What are the cause effect relationships and what are those principles?

然后我把它们计算机化了。

And then I computerized them.

因此，当我处理市场或几乎所有的决策时，这些过程都是计算机化的。

So when I'm dealing with the markets or I'm dealing with almost all decision making, it was computerized.

然后，人工智能有不同的版本。

And then the AI has different versions.

‘人工智能’这个词始于1956年。

The word AI began in 1956.

我使用了专家系统，让计算机像我一样做决策，就像制作一个计算机象棋游戏一样。

I used expert systems that would make the computer make decisions as I would make decisions by like making a computerized chess game.

它会做出决策，而当我面对相同情况时，我也会做出决策。

And it would make decisions and I would make decisions when faced with the same thing.

我会比较这两个决策，它们应该是一致的。

And I'd compare those two decisions and they should be aligned.

如果它们不一致，我会调和这些差异，这样双方都会变得更好。

And if they're not aligned, I'll reconcile the differences and we'd both get better.

所以我这样做了很长时间。

So I did that for a very long time.

现在有了ChatGPT以及相关的发展，这方面的能力和水平得到了提升。

And now we have the more with CHAT GPT and all that's happening, elevated that and the capacity to do that.

所以我亲身体验过。

So I've experienced it.

我理解它。

I understand it.

我觉得这太出色了。

I think it's phenomenal.

但当我提到它时，关键在于你如何与它协作。

But when I say it, it's how you work with it.

它必须是一个合作伙伴。

It has to be a partner.

它不是你只需遵循或仅仅当作信息来源的东西。

It isn't something that you just follow or just even a source of information.

当它发挥作用时，就像与一个优秀的伙伴合作一样。

When it works, it is like working as a good partner.

它永远不能替代你思考、理解因果关系的能力。

It can never be your substitute for thinking, for understanding cause effect relationships.

计算机没有价值观。

The computer doesn't have values.

它也没有像人类那样的灵感。

It doesn't have inspiration in the same way.

它没有情感。

It doesn't have emotions.

它没有那些真正关乎你人生追求的东西。

It doesn't have those things that are so like, what are you going after in life?

你爱谁？

Who do you love?

还有所有这些方面。

And all of those things.

所以它必须以合作伙伴的方式运作。

So it has to operate as a partner.

但没错，我非常兴奋。

But yes, I'm very excited.

我认为通过进化过程，它将变得非常重要。

I think through the evolutionary process, it'll be very important.

你知道，所有技术都有其优缺点。

All technologies you know, have pros and cons to it.

所以它将带来巨大的力量。

So it's going to create great power.

这种力量可以用来作恶，也可以用来行善。

That power can be used for harm or for good.

这将成为主要的战争议题。

It will be the main war issue.

当我们思考是否可能与中国、俄罗斯或其他实体发生战争时，情况如何？

When we're thinking about is could there be a war with China or Russia or another entity?

哪些技术可以被使用？

What kind of technologies can be used?

比如核技术，它是会被妥善利用，还是会带来危害？

So like nuclear, can it be used well and or is it going to be used harmfully?

其次，这并不能让我们回避我们的问题，反而加剧了财富不平等及其相关动态的问题。

Secondly, it doesn't get us around our question, and in fact exacerbates our question of the wealth inequality and that dynamic.

你可以看到它正在发生。

You can see it happening.

如果你属于前1%或10%的人群，哇，你拥有股票。

If you're in the top 1% or 10%, wow, you own stocks.

这最终只集中在极少数股票和经济中极小的一部分，而这些正在飞速上涨，同时也会取代大量工作岗位。

And it comes down to a very limited number of stocks and a very limited part of that economy and it's going through the roof and it'll also be replacing jobs.

我们该如何应对这个问题？

How do we deal with that?

这将是一个重大问题。

That's gonna be a big question.

第三个问题是，谁在掌控？

And then number three question is who's in control?

当我们接近通用人工智能时，这是否意味着它将掌控一切，而我们不再拥有控制权？

Will that and when we approach AGI, is that going to mean that it can be in control and we're no longer in control?

这些问题都摆在我们面前。

These are questions that lie ahead.

我想谈谈全球贸易和地缘政治。

So I want to talk about global trade and geopolitics.

当前的美国政府与过去的政府大不相同。

This current US Administration is very different from administrations of the past.

我们的做法已经彻底打破了冷战时期的诸多确定性。

I mean, we've really broken from a lot of the Cold War certainties.

我认为，所谓的‘美利坚治世’全球贸易时代，是否因为关税和贸易战而已经终结了呢？

And I, you know, is the era, the sort of Pax Americana global trade era, is that over just given tariffs, trade wars, where we are now?

还是说，这仅仅是我们在向不同领导层过渡时，战后时代延续过程中的一段小波折？

Or is this possibly just a kind of a bump in something that we'll see more continuous with post World War II era as we move on to different leadership?

我认为重要的是要明白，所有的货币体系都曾经历过崩溃，所有的国内政治秩序也都曾瓦解过。

I think that it's important to understand that all monetary orders have all three history broken down, All domestic political orders have broken down.

有些持续得久一些，有些则短一些。

Some last longer than others.

我们曾经打过内战，但最终挺过来了。

You know, we had a civil war at one point and we got through it.

大多数国家的政治秩序大概能维持五十年到八十年，然后就会崩溃。

Most countries, they last fifty or eighty years maybe, and then they break down.

大多数国际地缘政治秩序也会走向瓦解。

And most international geopolitical orders break down.

所以，这其实才是常态。

So that's the norm.

人们并没有意识到这一点。

People don't sort of realize that.

这就像健康一样。

And it's like health.

你可以列出一连串的指标。

You can go down a list of indicators.

你的教育水平相对于你的竞争对手如何？

Where is your education level relative to your competition?

你的GDP如何？

Where is your GDP?

这些到底是什么？

What are these things?

我整理并公开了我所谓的国家实力指数。

I put together and I made it public what I call country's power indexes.

它衡量经济实力、军事实力以及其他各种实力。

It measures economic power, military power, all these different powers.

因此，你可以像看待一个人的各种特征一样来看待它。

And so you could look at it like you could look at a human being's various characteristics.

你的压力水平如何？

What is your stress level?

你知道，你的胆固醇水平怎么样？诸如此类的问题。

You know, what is your cholesterol and all looking like that?

现实是，无论我使用何种指标，美国的相对地位已不再像以前那样具有主导性。

It is a reality that the relative position of The United States is no longer the same in terms of its dominance, whatever the measures I could use.

现实是我们面临着债务问题和内部冲突问题。

And it is the reality that we have this debt issue and that we have this internal conflict issue.

但这就像一个人有胆固醇问题和其他健康状况，你必须克服它们。

But it's like a person who has cholesterol and has these conditions that you have to then get over that.

这非常非常困难。

That's very, very difficult to do.

尤其是在其他强国如今已变得非常强大的世界里。

And particularly in a world where the other powers have now become very strong themselves.

你知道，从历史的角度来看，这会很困难。

You know, looking at history, it would be difficult.

我们拥有独特的特质。

We have unique characteristics.

我们是一个汇聚了来自世界各地最优秀、最聪明人才的国家，我们建立了一套精英制度，能让最优秀的人才进入最好的学校，很好地教育人民，做所有这些事情，还有法治，以及所有那些让美国伟大的美好品质——如果这些能够被重新激发，然后我们一起努力，也许还有希望。

We're a country of people who've come, the best and the brightest have come all over, and we've created a system of a meritocracy that can get the best talent to go to the best schools, you can educate your people well, and you can do all of those things, and rule of law, and all of those wonderful qualities that have made America great, if they can be regenerated and then you can work on those things together, you know, then perhaps.

但必须认识到，这不会自然而然地发生。

But one has to realize it's not like, is it just gonna happen?

不，不，不。

No, no, no.

这将取决于我们能否足够有效地运作，重新恢复活力？

This is gonna be, you know, can we operate well enough to be able to get fit again?

要重新成为顶尖的主导力量，这条路非常渺茫。

It's a long shot to that dominant power of being the best of the best.

这并不意味着我们找不到成功的途径，但成功到底意味着什么？

That doesn't mean we can't find a way of being successful, but what does success really mean?

它的形式是什么？

What does its form?

我想谈谈领导力。

So I want to talk about leadership.

我认为HPR的运作基于一种认知，即担任公司领导者总是很困难的。

You know, I would say HPR operates out of a sense that it's always difficult to be the leader of a company.

现在尤其困难。

It is particularly difficult now.

你经历过起起落落、繁荣与萧条。

You know, you've lived through ups and downs, booms and busts.

对于那些正试图应对当前这个特别具有挑战性时期的高级领导者，你有什么建议？

What's your advice for senior leaders are trying to navigate what feels like a particularly challenging time right now?

了解你所知道的，也了解你所不知道的。

Know what you know and know what you don't know.

懂得如何应对你不知道的事情，比你所知道的任何事情都更重要。

And knowing how to deal with what you don't know is more important than anything you know.

与你的董事会和股东保持一致，明确你们的共同目标。

Align yourself with your board and your shareholders in a way that you have you know your common purpose.

在这一共同目标中，必须包含如何应对社会变迁的元素，这样你才能明白说出某些话可能带来的后果，并且你需要与员工在使命、实现方式以及运作方式上保持一致。

And in that common purpose, there has to be an element of what do you do in a socially changing environment so that you know how to navigate the possible consequences of saying something and you have to be aligned with your employees in terms of what your mission is and how you're going to achieve it and operate in that way.

这是最根本的一点，否则你所说或所做的一切都可能带来后果，让你几乎失去自己的方向感——我究竟追求什么？我又该如何权衡这些因素来实现目标？

That's the most fundamental thing because otherwise there can be consequences to what you say or what you do so that you almost lose your own beacon of thinking, what am I going after and how do I compromise those things to achieve that goal?

你对如何组建一支出色的高管团队有什么建议？

What's your advice on how to build a really good senior team?

从你的过往经验来看，哪些做法有效，哪些无效？

From your past, what worked and what didn't?

对我来说，我的座右铭始终是：我这一生想要什么？

For me, my mantra was always, what do I want in life?

这种追求如何延伸到我的商业行为中？

And how does that carry over to what I do in my business?

我想要有意义的工作和有意义的人际关系。

I wanted meaningful work and meaningful relationships.

我希望在工作中做到卓越，并对此充满热情。

I want to be excellent in my work and have a passion for it.

我希望建立卓越的人际关系，我们不是仅仅基于交易行事，而是共同肩负使命。

And I want to have excellent relationships that we're not just doing this as in a transactional basis, but we're on a mission together.

因此，我通过彻底的真诚和透明，获得了有意义的工作和有意义的人际关系。

So I have meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truthfulness and radical transparency.

这就是我的座右铭。

That was my mantra.

这意味着，如果我有什么想法，或者你有什么想法，我们都将直面这些问题，以打造世界上最优秀的团队，我们能成为的最好的团队，因为我们知道将一起经历起起落落，这会让我们的团队更高效。

That means if I'm thinking something or you're thinking something that we will deal with that to operate, to make the team the best team in the world, best team that we can, knowing that we're going to go through the ups and downs together and that it'll make us more effective as a team.

这也会带来快乐，因为当你经历了这些关系——在很多情况下是持续数十年的特殊关系——你不仅会提升效率，也会收获其中的喜悦。

And it'll also be a joy because when you have those relationships that you go through, in many cases with decades or that kind of special relationship, you gain more effectiveness and you also gain the joy of it.

你追求的是什么？

What are you after?

你想要追求什么？

What are you going after?

你和谁一起做这件事？

Who are you doing it with?

你们是如何一起协作的？

And how do you operate together?

我认为这些是你必须具备的最基本原则。

Those are the most fundamental principles I think that you have to have.

所以，这些原则，比如极端坦诚和极端透明，与你紧密相关，听起来非常吸引人。

So, I mean, the principles, radical truthfulness, radical transparency, which are associated with you, sound really appealing.

我的意思是，曾有报道说那里的氛围相当严苛。

I mean, there have been reports that it was a pretty tough climate.

人们谈论着偏执和惩罚之类的事情。

People talked about paranoia and punishment and all that.

我认为确实如此，你的继任者已经扭转了一些东西——也许不是这些原则本身，而是它们的执行方式。

And I think it's true that your successor has undone, you know, some of the, maybe not the principles, but sort of the way that that was carried out.

不过我的问题是，如果你重新来过，你会做任何调整吗？

My question though is, you know, would you tweak anything if you were doing it all over again?

我认为最重要、最核心的问题是：你是否愿意做到彻底坦诚和透明？

I think the real question most importantly is, are you going to be radically truthful and transparent?

你是否愿意分享你的想法？

Are you going to share what you think?

你能建立起这种信任，即使过程很艰难吗？

Can you build that trust of doing it even if it's tough?

换句话说，很多人觉得犯错很痛苦。

In other words, a lot of people, they find mistakes painful.

他们觉得面对自己的弱点很痛苦。

They find facing their weaknesses painful.

但你要把它想象成一个优秀的团队。

But think of it as a great team.

如果我要打造一个最出色的团队，让我们协同高效地工作，我们就必须这么做。

If I'm gonna deliver the best team and that we work well together, we're gonna have to do that.

明白吗？

Okay?

我们必须面对这个问题。

We're gonna have to deal with that.

我们不能回避这个问题。

We can't be avoiding that.

你如何做到这一点才是最重要的。

And how you do that is the most important thing.

并不是每个人都会喜欢这样。

And not everybody's going to like it.

在桥水，大约有30%的人坚持不到两年半。

At Bridgewater, it was something like 30% of the population won't make it two and a half years.

很大一部分人 elsewhere 根本无法胜任其他工作。

And a huge percentage of the population can't work anywhere else.

但他们进入其他组织后，一切都藏在幕后，充满权术，无法进行坦诚讨论，充斥着不诚实的氛围。

But they go into the other organizations and everything's behind the scenes and there's the politicking and then they can't have the discussions and there's a sense of dishonesty.

但你必须营造这种特定的文化。

But you have to create that particular culture.

因此，我认为，如何精确地做到这一点，正是我相信并奏效的方法。

And so the exactness of how you do that in my belief, that was what I believe, that's what worked.

正是这种方法，让桥水从一间两居室的公寓发展成为一家成功的企业。

That's what took Bridgewater from a two bedroom apartment and let it to become successful.

这里有一些人已经在这里工作了几十年，他们拥有这种非凡的力量。

And there are people here with decades that we've have that extraordinary power.

但你究竟该如何具体操作呢？

But how you do it exactly?

你该如何精确地平衡这些因素？

How do you balance those things exactly?

这取决于你自己。

That's up to you.

我认为人们正在努力弄清楚什么是合适的工作文化。

I think people are trying to figure out what is the appropriate work culture.

一段时间以来，像《哈佛商业评论》这样的地方普遍认为，你希望员工能以完整的自我投入工作。

For a while, there was a consensus from places like HBR that you wanted your employees to bring their whole selves to work.

多元化、公平与包容是所有事务的关键组成部分。

DEI was a critical component to everything.

现在出现了反弹。

Now there's a backlash.

所以问题在于，我们最终希望达到什么状态？

So the question is, where do we want to end up?

比如

Like

我希望最终达到的、以及最初让我起步并带领我们前进的目标是：我希望你们能完全自由地做自己。

to Where what I want to end up and where I began and what carried us through was I want you to feel totally free to be yourself.

你们绝不能感到自己不能自由地做自己。

You should never not feel free to be yourself.

然后要对他人保持体贴，并以这种方式行事。

And then be considerate with others and to operate that way.

这包括完全自由地提出任何问题、探究任何事情，并以这种方式行事。

And that includes feel totally free to say, ask any questions or probe anything and operate in that way.

否则就会出现二元对立。

Otherwise there's a duality.

这种二元对立对你不利。

The duality isn't good for you.

这种二元对立对组织也不利。

The duality isn't good for the organization.

但也要懂得如何进行有建设性的分歧，比如你能从我的角度看问题吗？

But to know also how to have thoughtful disagreement, like can I see it through your eyes?

你能从我的角度看问题吗？

Can you see it through my eyes?

然后我们必须做出决定。

And then we have to make a decision.

对我来说，就是基于理念的 meritocratic 决策。

For me, was idea meritocratic decision making.

为了做到这一点，我们采用了可信度加权的决策方式。

So in order to do that, we had believability weighted decision making.

我不会详细说明具体是怎么做的，但换句话说，有些人在这类领域有信誉，而在那些领域则没有。

I won't get into exactly how it goes, but in other words, there are certain people that you'd say they have credibility in these areas and not credibility in those.

然后你试图建立一种以想法为核心的民主决策机制。

And then you try to make an idea meritocracy.

我相信多样性具有巨大的力量。

I believe in that there's a great power of diversity.

换句话说，我喜欢各种不同的声音。

In other words, I like when there's all different.

我特别喜欢美国这一点，因为它汇聚了来自不同文化背景的各类人群。

I love The United States for that because it brought all these different people from all different cultures.

不存在绝对的真理。

There is no absolute truth.

每个人，如果他们拥有或经营公司，都必须决定什么对他们来说是真实的。

Each person has to make if they own the company or they run the company, they have to decide what's true for them.

所以当我回答你的问题——这个问题听起来像是在问什么是绝对真理——我不知道。

So when I'm answering your question, which sounds like what is the absolute truth, I don't know.

但我说的是，我相信这种方式对我有效，那种诚实——极端的坦诚和透明，并以这种方式运作，是很好的。

But I'm saying that I believe in that that's worked for me and that honesty where you have radical truthfulness and radical transparency and operating that way, that was good.

这使一些人凝聚在一起，但并不适合所有人。

That is what kept some people together and it wasn't for everyone.

每位CEO现在都应该问自己什么问题？

What should every CEO be asking themselves right now?

想想你是谁？

Well, think who are you?

什么对你重要？

What matters to you?

你是否与你的目标和你所处的环境保持一致？

Are you aligned with where you're going and who you're with?

还是你与这些并不一致？

Or are you not aligned with that?

你想要什么？

What do you want?

人们有时会迷失自我，忘记自己是谁、想要什么，因为他们所处的工作环境告诉他们，成功就意味着某种特定的样子，于是他们的行为可能与真实的自我和内心所求背道而驰。

Is people sometimes can lose sight of who they are and what they want, because they're in a job that says success is going to equal this, and then they can be operating inconsistent with who they are and what they want.

你现在需要弄清楚这些问题，但不必追求绝对精确。

Now you have to figure those things out, but you don't have to be precise.

你知道吗？我喜欢和我共事的这些人吗？

You know, do I like the people I'm working with?

我们的工作有效吗？

Is it effective?

我们赢了吗？

Are we winning?

这真的是我想做的事吗？

And is this what I want to do?

我们目标一致吗？

And are we aligned?

这至关重要。

That's a paramount importance.

我认为，如果我们持续探究是否发生了什么事，任何事情的发生都有其原因。

I think if we keep figuring out if something happened, anything happened, there were causes that made it happen.

如果我们能以分析的方式去思考，这些因果关系是什么？

And if we can approach it analytically and say, what were the cause effect relationships?

我们就能理解现实是如何运作的。

We can learn how reality works.

你会看到这些模式。

You get these patterns.

同样的事情一再发生。

The same thing happens over and over.

把手放在热炉子上。

Put your hand on a hot stove.

不需要多次尝试，就能明白现实是如何运作的。

It doesn't take too many times to understand how reality works.

所以，我有一个原则：痛苦加反思等于进步。

So like I have a principle, pain plus reflection equals progress.