人际关系2.0：成为更优秀的谈判者

这里是《隐藏的大脑》节目。

This is Hidden Brain.

我是尚卡尔·维丹塔姆。

I'm Shankar Vedanta.

五十多年前，一部经典电影中的经典场景，严重扭曲了数百万人们对谈判艺术的理解。

More than five decades ago, an iconic scene in an iconic movie damaged the way millions of people thought about the art of negotiation.

在《教父》中，马龙·白兰度饰演的黑帮老大维托·柯里昂，他的教子约翰尼·方坦来找他。

In The Godfather, Marlon Brando, playing the role of mafia boss Vito Corleone, is approached by his godson, Johnny Fontaine.

这位年轻人想在一部电影里争取一个角色，但一位好莱坞大老板拒绝给他这个机会。

The younger man wants a part in a movie, but a big shot Hollywood executive refuses to give it to him.

黑帮老大向教子保证，他一定能拿到这个角色。

The mafia leader assures his godson that he will get the role.

怎么做到的呢？

How?

维托·柯里昂这样评价那位好莱坞高管

Vito Corleone says of the Hollywood exec

我会给他一个无法拒绝的条件。

I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse.

按照1972年的标准，接下来的场面既暴力又血腥。

By the standards of 1972, what follows is violent and gory.

简单来说，这位黑帮教父把好莱坞高管吓住了，让他乖乖把角色给了教子。

Suffice it to say, the mafia don scares the Hollywood executive into giving his godson the role.

几十年来，那句经典台词“我会给他一个无法拒绝的条件”让无数人以为，谈判中想要达到目的就得靠强硬手段。

For decades now, that memorable line, I'll make him an offer he can't refuse, has helped inform how millions of people think they can get their way in negotiations.

无论是想加薪、谈生意，还是结束战争，都得靠施压。

If you want a raise or a business deal or an agreement to end a war, you do it by arm twisting.

只要你让我足够难受，我就给你想要的。

If you can make me hurt badly enough, I'll give you what you want.

今天这期节目，我们来探讨谈判的科学。

Today on the show, we explore the science of negotiation.

研究人员发现，达成好协议的艺术比黑帮电影教给我们的要更细腻、更积极。

What researchers have found about the art of crafting a good deal is more nuanced and more uplifting than the lessons of mafia movies.

如何成为更好的谈判者？

How to become a better negotiator?

本周的《隐藏的大脑》节目。

This week on Hidden Brain.

当我们进行谈判时，无论是买新车、要退款，还是商量家务分工，我们通常只关注如何让对方同意我们想要的结果。

When we head into a negotiation, to buy a new car, to get a refund, to figure out how to divide household chores, our focus is usually on getting the other party to agree to our preferred outcome.

我们只想着对方可能有多固执或多不妥协。

We focus on all the ways the other side can be obstinate or intransigent.

但我们往往忽略了自己的偏见和盲点。

What we don't focus on are our own biases and blind spots.

在哈佛商学院，行为科学家马克斯·巴泽曼研究谈判的理论与实践。

At Harvard Business School, behavioral scientist Max Bazerman studies the theory and practice of negotiation.

他说，理解这些偏见和盲点能帮助我们达成更好的协议。

He says understanding those biases and blind spots can help us craft better deals.

马克斯·巴泽曼，欢迎来到《隐藏的大脑》。

Max Bazerman, welcome to Hidden Brain.

谢谢。

Thank you.

很高兴能和你一起，尚卡尔。

It's I'm delighted to be with you, Shankar.

马克斯，我想从一个叫罗伯特·坎波的人的故事开始。

Max, I want to start with the story of a man named Robert Campo.

1987年，他入选了《财富》杂志评选的50位最有趣的商业人物。

In 1987, he was featured in Fortune's 50 most interesting business people.

他是一位来自加拿大的房地产开发商，但我知道他有一个强烈的愿望，那就是不仅仅做一个来自加拿大的房地产开发商。

He was a real estate developer from Canada, but I understand he had a burning ambition to be more than a real estate developer from Canada?

对。

Yeah.

他似乎一直在寻找新的冒险，探索了各种领域，最终进入了零售行业。

He seemed to be on the search for his new adventure, and he explored a variety of turfs, eventually landing in the retail space.

我知道这不仅仅关乎他的商业兴趣。

I understand that some of this was not just about his business interests.

他还想成为一个有头有脸的人物。

He also wanted to be a somebody.

他想被邀请到那些重要的社交场合。

He wanted to be invited to the right parties.

所以他探索收购的一部分动机，就是希望自己能成为那种呼风唤雨的人。

And so part of his explorations of acquisitions was connected to him wanting to be a mover and a shaker.

我们在收购案例中看到的很多故事，主角往往都有点虚荣心，想上报纸头条，想促成这笔交易。

A lot of stories that we see in the acquisition world have people who have some ego interest in being on the front page of the newspaper and making the acquisition occur.

这常常会让人偏离理性决策，或者做出从财务角度看并非最优的选择。

And this can often lead people to depart from what we might think of rational action or what's best from a financial perspective.

所以罗伯特·坎波是个非常有意思的人物。

So Robert Campo was a very colorful character.

我想给你放一段录音，是金融记者约翰·罗斯柴尔德讲的，他写过一本关于坎波的书。

I want to play you a clip featuring the financial reporter John Rothschild who wrote a book about him.

这位记者在和公共广播主持人特里·格罗斯聊天时提到，银行家们想帮罗伯特·坎波执行一笔交易，结果联系不上他时发生了什么。

The reporter is talking with public radio host Terry Gross about what happened when bankers trying to execute a deal for Robert Campo once tried to contact him.

他们想联系鲍勃·坎波，但他却跑去拉皮了。

They tried to get back to, Bob Campo, but he was off having a facelift.

他总有比生意更重要的事要忙。

He always had other priorities besides his business.

这个故事里的花絮是，他忙着自我提升，到处飞，打抗衰老针、做拉皮手术，还让人每隔十五分钟就给他榨新鲜橙汁，因为他觉得超过十五分钟的橙汁就不新鲜了。

The sideshow in this story is, his self improvement, his flying around, getting injections for longevity and facelifts and having people following him squeezing fresh orange juice every fifteen minutes because he didn't trust it if it was older than fifteen minutes.

所以有一段时间，他几乎有个专属的榨橙汁的人。

And so he sort of had a designated orange juice squeezer for a time.

所以，大概是在喝鲜榨橙汁的间隙，罗伯特·坎波决定要收购一家叫联邦百货的公司。

So presumably between shots of freshly squeezed orange juice, Robert Campo decides he wants to acquire a company called Federated.

这家公司旗下有著名的百货商店布鲁明戴尔，还有其他零售店和超市，但只有一个问题。

It's the parent company of the celebrated department store Bloomingdale's as well as other merchandise stores and supermarkets, there's only one problem.

他的竞争对手是梅西百货，梅西也想收购联邦百货。

He's bidding against Macy's, which also wants to buy Federated.

他基本上就是出了个价，结果却陷入了一场竞购战。

He basically ends up making a bid, but there ends up in kind of a bidding war.

在很多收购故事里，我们经常读到A公司以很高的价格买下C公司。

And in lots of different acquisition stories, we often read about the fact that company a buys company c at a very high price.

但我们往往忽略的是B公司在其中扮演的角色——A和B为了争夺C，陷入了竞购战。

And what we often don't think about is the role the company b played in it, and that is that a and b ended up in a bidding war on who's gonna get c.

所以我们可以想想你讲的坎波的故事，坎波和梅西百货竞购联邦百货。

So we could think of the Campo story that you're telling where Campo ends up bidding against against Macy's for Federated.

我没办法直接看透坎波先生的想法，但看起来他宁愿不惜代价也要赢，而不是做一笔财务上成功的收购。

And I can't see directly into the into the brain of mister Campo, but it sure looks like he wanted to win at any cost rather than make a financially successful acquisition.

我想稍微聚焦一下1988年3月发生的事情。

So I want to just zero in for a second on what happened in March 1988.

当时梅西百货似乎要以一个离谱的价格赢得竞购战。

It looked like Macy's was going to win the bidding war with an outlandish number.

联邦百货的市值大约是30亿美元，但竞购战已经把价格推到了70亿美元以上。

The market value of Federated was about $3,000,000,000, but the bidding war had taken the price past $7,000,000,000.

我了解到罗伯特·坎波向梅西百货提出了一个交易方案。

I understand Robert Campo approached Macy's with a deal.

是的。

Yeah.

所以坎波找到梅西百货，基本上就是说，我让你赢，但你要答应把布鲁明戴尔卖给我。

So Campo approaches Macy's and basically says, I'll let you win as long as you in turn agree to sell Bloomingdale's to me.

这基本上是两个竞标者之间的私下交易，今天的联邦贸易委员会可能对此不会太高兴，因为这里面存在潜在的反垄断勾结问题。

So it's basically a side deal between the two bidders, something that today's Federal Trade Commission might not look fondly at at all because there are there's a potential for antitrust collusion going on in the story.

但梅西百货基本上拒绝了坎波。

But Macy's basically turns down Campo.

梅西百货在竞标战中已经把联合百货的价值翻了一倍，但坎波被梅西拒绝后，恼羞成怒，又在梅西的出价上加了5亿美元。

Macy's had already sort of doubled the value of Federated in the bidding war, yet Campo, being annoyed by Macy's rejection, turns around and bids another $500,000,000 above Macy's.

这基本上是一个完全非理性的行为，坎波不惜一切代价要赢，而不是做任何明智的财务评估，看看加价到底有没有道理。

It it's it's basically a completely irrational action where Campo is bidding to win at any cost rather than making any kind of wise financial assessment of whether this upping the bid makes any sense at all.

但他赢了。

But he won.

听起来他拿下了这笔交易。

It sounds like he won the deal.

他赢了。

He he won.

我曾经写过一篇论文，标题是‘我赢了拍卖，但不想要奖品’。

I I once wrote a paper, I won the auction, but I don't want the prize.

那么

And

而且赢得任何拍卖都有一个简单的策略。

and and there's an easy strategy for winning any auction.

就是一直出价，直到没人再愿意出价为止。

Keep on bidding until no one else wants to bid anymore.

对。

Yeah.

他拿下了联邦百货，但付了太多钱。

He got federated, but he paid too much.

两年后，他自己的公司破产了，他也被赶下了公司领导的位置。

And two years later, his own firm goes bankrupt, and he's ousted from his position as as the leader of the firm.

所以这完全就是一个‘赢了拍卖却不想拿奖品’的故事，因为他赢得拍卖后所继承的整个故事并不怎么正面。

So it it very much is a story of I won the auction, but I don't want the prize because the overall story that he inherits as a result of winning is not a very positive story.

而且现在这件事被视为非理性谈判的一个典型例子。

And it's now looked back on as sort of an example of irrational negotiation.

那么最近，Max，类似的事情发生在精神航空、边疆航空和捷蓝航空之间。

So more recently, Max, something along the same lines happened between Spirit Airlines, Frontier Airlines, and JetBlue Airlines.

你能给我讲讲那个故事吗？

Can you tell me that story?

当然可以。

Sure.

边疆航空提出要收购精神航空。

Frontier made an offer to acquire Spirit Airlines.

这两家航空公司的评价都不太好。

These are two poorly rated airlines.

财务状况上，它们当时并不理想。

Financially, they weren't doing great.

捷蓝航空是一家客户服务评价很高、财务状况良好的航空公司，它决定更认真地进入低成本市场，可能想挑战美国低成本航空领域的领头羊——西南航空。

JetBlue, a airline that often had very good ratings for customer service and was doing fine financially, decides that it wants to enter the low cost market in a more serious way to potentially challenge Southwest Airlines, a leader in The US low low cost space.

然后他们向精神航空提出了一个比边疆航空更有吸引力的收购要约。

And they make an offer for Spirit that's more attractive than the Frontier offer.

在这个故事中，双方进行了多轮竞标，持续了相当长一段时间，最终捷蓝航空似乎赢得了这场竞购。

We get multiple rounds of bidding over an extended period of time in this story, and, eventually, JetBlue seems like it won the auction.

但在这个过程中，捷蓝航空的股价暴跌了超过50%。

But in the process, the stock value of JetBlue plummeted by more than 50%.

哇。

Wow.

捷蓝航空基本上把自己重新定位成了一家更偏向低成本的航空公司，服务质量也随之下降。

JetBlue kind of repositioned itself to be more of a low cost airline, lowering quality of service.

客户评价也下滑了。

Customer ratings fell.

最后，政府以反垄断为由，没有批准这项合并。

And then eventually, the government doesn't allow the merger to go through based on antitrust issues.

所以这笔交易就黄了，而精神航空在这一切混乱和动荡中也过得不好，在2024年11月申请了破产。

So the deal falls apart, and Spirit and all this confusion and turmoil did not do well either, and in November 2024, filed for bankruptcy.

当公司和个人进入谈判时，很容易被不惜一切代价取胜的欲望冲昏头脑。

When companies and individuals go into a negotiation, it's easy to get swept up in the desire to win at all costs.

在罗伯特·坎波的案例中，他把自己看作是在与行业巨头对抗。

In Robert Campo's case, he saw himself as going up against the titans of industry.

但最终，他最大的敌人不是梅西百货，也不是谈判桌对面坐着的人。

But in the end, his biggest enemy wasn't Macy's or the people sitting across from him at the negotiating table.

罗伯特·坎波最大的敌人是他自己。

Robert Campo's biggest enemy was Robert Campo himself.

稍后回来，我们将探讨我们如何在谈判中自我破坏，以及如何做得更好。

When we come back, how we self sabotage our negotiations, and how we can do better.

您正在收听的是《隐藏的大脑》。

You're listening to Hidden Brain.

我是尚卡尔·维丹塔姆。

I'm Shankar Vedanta.

这里是《隐藏的大脑》。

This is Hidden Brain.

我是尚卡尔·维丹塔。

I'm Shankar Vedanta.

大多数人想到谈判时，都会把注意力放在谈判对手身上。

When most of us think of a negotiation, we focus on the people we are negotiating with.

我们会琢磨对方在想什么，以及如何利用他们的弱点和毛病。

We ask ourselves what's going on in their minds and how we can take advantage of their flaws and foibles.

但大多数人不会反思自己头脑中的弱点和毛病。

Most of us don't ask ourselves about the flaws and foibles in our own minds.

我们不会问自己，在谈判过程中是否在犯系统性的错误。

We don't ask how we might be making systematic mistakes as we negotiate.

事实证明，这是一个巨大的盲点。

It turns out, this is a huge blind spot.

在哈佛商学院，谈判专家马克斯·巴泽曼研究了谈判者自我破坏的多种方式。

At Harvard Business School, negotiation expert Max Bazerman has studied the many ways negotiators foil themselves.

马克斯，你写过一位非常有前途的棒球运动员马修·哈林顿的职业生涯。

Max, you've written about the career of a very promising baseball player named Matthew Harrington.

2000年，《今日美国》和《棒球美国》都报道过他。

In the year 2000, he was profiled in USA Today and Baseball America.

那些文章是怎么描述他的？

How did those articles describe him?

说他是一个讨人喜欢、认真踏实的未来投手巨星，注定要进入大联盟。

As a pleasant, earnest future pitching superstar bound for the major leagues.

所以他参加了2000年的选秀，并与一位名叫汤米·坦泽的知名经纪人签约。

So he entered the draft in the year 2000, and he signed up with a major agent named Tommy Tanzer.

马克斯，在选秀之前，他们讨论过他在选秀中的表现以及选秀后能拿到多少收入吗？

What were the discussions before the draft happened in terms of how he was going to perform and what kind of income he could expect to receive once the draft was done, Max?

是的。

Yeah.

基本上，经纪人说服了年轻的哈林顿先生和他的父母，说他值一大笔钱。

So, basically, the agent convinces young mister Harrington and his parents that he's worth a very large amount of money.

他们商量好了一个非常高的要价，以为棒球队最终会妥协。

They agree to put a price tag at a very high number that they're assuming that the that the baseball team will eventually cave in.

但不幸的是，球队没有妥协。

And unfortunately, they don't.

坦泽基本上就是劝哈林顿耐心点，等着对方让步。

And Tanzu basically encourages Harrington to be patient and wait for them to cave.

根据美国职业棒球大联盟的规定，一名潜在球员每年只能跟一支球队谈判。

And under the rules of the Major League Baseball system, a potential employee can only negotiate with one team in in any specific year.

结果，坦泽和哈林顿把球队逼到了极限，球队最后说了不。

And, basically, Tanzler and Harrington push the team to the limit, and the team eventually says no.

这样一来，这位原本能拿到数百万美元各种形式报酬的超级新星，接下来一整年都无球可打。

And when that occurs, that basically means this superstar who's been offered many millions of dollars in a variety of different forms ends up being unemployed for the following year.

所以经纪人告诉马修·哈林顿，任何签下他的球队都得给出一份495万美元的首年签约奖金。

So the agent tells Matthew Harrington that any team that signs him would have to offer a $4,950,000 first year signing bonus.

这在当时可是个天价。

Now this was an extreme offer at the time.

科罗拉多洛矶队用第七顺位选中了哈林顿，他们其实提出了几个相当有诚意的报价，比如八年530万美元，或者没有长期合同的话给370万美元，但经纪人、家人和这个年轻人自己都拒绝了。

The Colorado Rockies, who chose Harrington as the seventh pick in the draft, actually made a number of fairly compelling offers, including $5,300,000 over eight years or $3,700,000 without a long term commitment, but but the agent and the family and the young man declined.

是的。

Yeah.

所以得把这个放在当时的背景里看，这是2000年，那时候的钱和现在完全不是一个概念。

So just put this in perspective, this is in 2000, so these dollars are very different than dollars today.

但即便如此，摆在桌面上的也是一大笔钱，而且我们说的这个人没有大学学历，除了棒球之外也没什么特别好的职业出路，对方根据马特·哈林顿签约年限的不同，给出了各种形式的、大约五百万美元的报价。

But still, we're we were talking about a lot of money being on the table, and we're talking about somebody who doesn't have a college education, doesn't have a terrific alternative career outside of baseball, who's being offered around $5,000,000 in a variety of different forms depending on the number of years that that that Matt Harrington would sign for.

而经纪人汤米·坦斯勒却劝哈林顿一家再耐心等等，争取更好的条件。

And Tommy Tensler, the agent, pushes the Harringtons to be patient and wait for more.

不幸的是，科罗拉多洛矶队虽然想要哈林顿，但不愿意接受坦斯勒和哈林顿要求的那个价位，所以最终没有达成任何协议。

Unfortunately, the Colorado Rockies, the baseball team, wants Harrington, but not at the price level that Tenser and Harrington are demanding, and basically no deal is created.

所以第一年僵持下来之后，第二年他又获得了一次进入大联盟的机会。

So after holding out this first year, he gets a second shot at the big leagues the following year.

马修·哈林顿换了经纪人，再次参加了美国职棒大联盟的选秀。

Matthew Harrington switched agents and entered the Major League Baseball draft again.

这一次，圣地亚哥的球队在第五十八顺位选中了他。

This time, the team from San Diego chooses him as the fifty eighth overall selection.

但他们最终给出的报价是四年125万美元，外加30万美元的签约奖金。

But the final offer they make is $1,250,000 over four years with a $300,000 signing bonus.

这比一年前科罗拉多队给他的报价少了很多，而且也比汤米·坦泽当初承诺他成为棒球明星后能拿到的钱少得多。

Now that's significantly less than what the Colorado team offered him a year earlier, and it's also less than what, you know, Tommy Tanzer had promised that he would get when he became, you know, this baseball star.

那么第二年发生了什么？

So what happens in year two?

这里的情况和之前很相似，哈林顿对自己的市场价值大幅下跌感到非常失望。

So we have a very similar kind of phenomena here in terms of Harrington being disappointed that his market value has fallen so dramatically.

所以我们可以很容易地想象，前一年已经设定了一个锚点。

So we can easily imagine that there was an anchor set by the prior year.

是的。

Yeah.

而哈林顿期望的至少是前一年他放弃的那个价码。

And Harrington's hoping hoping for something in the range of what at least what he passed on the year before.

但在这一年里，他没有展现出自己的潜力，身价也一路下滑。

But during the year, he has not shown his potential, and his value has has fallen.

是的。

And Yeah.

基本上，当时有一百多万美元摆在面前，而且那还是2000年或2001年。

Basically, with over $1,000,000 on the table, and again, this is in a year $2,000 or 2,001.

他基本上放弃了那个机会，想等更好的报价，结果一直没能达到大联盟级别的棒球水平。

He basically passes on the opportunity holding off for more, and he continues to not be able to pursue playing baseball at the level of the major leagues.

结果，他的身价就随着时间的推移越来越低。

And as a result, his value goes down and down and down over time.

而哈林顿最终也没能成为大联盟球员，可能是因为坦泽和哈林顿，以及后来哈林顿和他的新经纪人，都过于自信，以为能拿到一个本来就不现实的金额。

And and Harrington never gets the opportunity to be a Major League Baseball player, perhaps because Tanzer and Harrington and then following year, Harrington and his new agent are basically overconfident that they can obtain an amount that wasn't viable in the first place.

是的。

And Yeah.

当然，哈林顿的故事里这种情况年复一年地发生，也说明哈林顿团队虽然不断更换经纪人，却始终期望得到比市场能给的更高的报价。

Certainly, the fact that this happens year after year for in the Harrington story is suggestive of the fact that the Harrington team with rotating agents continues to expect more than what the market will provide.

所以我理解，到了第三年，他又重新参加了选秀。

So I understand that in year three, he comes back to the draft again.

这次他被坦帕湾队在第370顺位选中，而他们给他的报价不到10万美元。

This time, he's chosen as the 370 pick, by the by the Tampa Bay team, and now he's offered less than a 100,000, dollars.

当然，你知道，他之前被报过300多万，然后是100多万，现在只有10万美元。

Now, of course, you know, he'd been previously offered, you know, 3 plus million dollars and then 1 plus million dollars and now a $100,000.

每次他都觉得，怎么能给我这么低的报价，这跟我的价值差太多了？

And each time, he says, you know, how can I be offered so much less than my value?

他成了美国职业棒球大联盟历史上坚持最久的拒绝签约的球员？

He becomes the longest holdout in the history of Major League Baseball?

对。

Yeah.

所以最初的报价是500万美元左右，然后是一百多万，最后是10万美元。

So it was the original offer was more in the $5,000,000 range and then a little over 1,000,000 and then a 100,000.

我们可以看到事情是怎么发展的。

And we can see what's happening.

市场基本上是在把他看作一个价值越来越低的新秀，随着时间的推移。

The market is basically seeing him as a less valuable prospect as the time goes by.

但首先，他在第一年加大了投入，然后他就锚定在之前的数字上。

But first, he escalates his commitment in year one, and then he anchors on prior numbers.

他锚定在市场认为不合理、甚至不值得花钱签下他的数字上。

And he's anchoring on numbers that the market does not see as appropriate or even worth paying in order to get him to sign.

结果，他最后只能在低端零售店工作，而不是成为大联盟选秀的焦点，那本来是他未来的方向。

And as a result, he ends up working in a low level retail context as opposed to ending up as a major league pick picture, which seemed to be where his future had been headed.

所以，到了2009年，他在当地的Costco轮胎部门工作，每小时赚11.5美元。

So, yeah, by the year 2009, you know, he's working in the tire department of the local Costco earning $11.50 an hour.

当然，现在看那个决定确实很傻，但这不仅仅是他放弃的那些初始合同。

And, of course, now that that decision looks looks really foolish, but it's not just the the initial contracts that he passed up on.

如果他为这些球队效力并成为明星，很可能还会有未来的合同，同样会很赚钱。

Presumably, if he had played for these teams and had become a star, you know, there would have been future contracts that could have also been lucrative.

他本可以在教练、球探和广播领域发展职业生涯。

There could have been a future career in coaching and scouting and broadcasting.

你看，他当初的过度自信，可能在很多方面都让他后半辈子付出了巨大的代价。

There's so many ways in which, you know, his overconfidence at the front end may have cost him a great deal through the rest of his life.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

而且，他看起来是个非常好的人，对吧？

And he see he he seems to be a very nice human being Yeah.

他面对这些损失，心态调整得还不错。

Who copes with these losses well.

是的。

Yeah.

所以完全可以想象，如果他当初成了大联盟投手，在体育界的其他领域，他也有潜力开启第二段职业生涯。

So you can certainly imagine that he had potential for a second career after being a major league pitcher in other aspects of sports.

同样的谈判错误，在我们的个人生活中也会出现。

The same kind of negotiating mistakes show up in our personal lives.

婚姻中的每一方，都可能高估自己为这段关系带来的价值。

Each partner in a marriage can overestimate the value they bring to the relationship.

如果我们问一对情侣，各自承担了多少家务？

If we ask two partners in a romantic relationship, what percent of the household work do you do?

根据不同的研究，这个数字加起来往往在120%到130%之间。

Depending on the study, it seems to come in at 120% to 130%.

最近，我和尼克·埃普利、尤金·卡鲁索一起，问了MBA学生在学习小组里，你们觉得自己贡献了多少好主意或者多少工作量？

More recently, Nick Epley and Eugene Caruso and I asked MBA students who worked in study groups, what percent of the good ideas or what percent of the work came from you?

对。

Yeah.

结果总和达到了140%左右。

And the sum total comes up to more like a 140%.

哇。

Wow.

当我们问学术论文的合作者，你做了多少工作？

When we ask coauthors of academic papers, what percent of the work did you do?

实际工作总和必须是100%，但大家报出来的数字加起来却有140%。

We come in at a 140% when the sum total of the actual work has to be a 100%.

其实原因就是，我们都只看到自己做过的事。

And what's going on is we all see the work we did do.

而别人做了什么，我们不一定看得到。

We don't necessarily see the work that other people have done.

所以，说到我的教育背景，我很久以前是学会计的，这让我觉得自己应该能搞定自己的报税。

So and, you know, and if we go back to my education, I was an accounting major a long time ago, which this leads to the notion that I should be able to do my own taxes.

但当我花时间报税时，我配偶并不完全认可我做的这些工作。

And when I spend time doing my taxes, my spouse doesn't give me full credit for that work.

同时，说到遛狗，我平均大概遛一英里。

And meanwhile, when it comes to walking the dog, you know, I'd say I average about a mile of walking a dog.

玛拉每天遛两到三英里，不过我觉得那是因为她喜欢遛狗。

Marla's more in the range of two or three miles a day, but I think that's because she likes walking the dog.

我觉得她不应该因为多遛的那一英里而得到额外的功劳，因为那并不是为了狗。

I don't think she should actually get credit for the extra the extra mile because it wasn't for the dog.

那是为了玛拉自己。

It was for Marla.

所以你可以开始看到，我们有很多种方式只看到自己的工作和贡献，却看不到别人的付出。

So we you can begin to see the wide range of ways in which we can see our own work, our own contribution, but not see the work of others.

对。

Yeah.

那么，你和尤金·卡鲁索、尼克·埃普利一起研究了一种方法，用来把注意力从自己身上转移到对方身上。

So with Eugene Caruso and Nick Epley, you've also researched a technique to take the focus off ourselves and onto the other person.

麦克斯，给我讲讲这项研究吧。

Tell me about this work, Max.

那我们回到四个人一起做一个项目的场景。

So so let let's go back to the context where there's four people working on a project.

好。

Yeah.

我们把他们叫做A、B、C、D。

And we'll call them a, b, c, and d.

好。

Yeah.

如果我们问每个人，你做了多少工作？

If we ask each of them, what percent of the work did you do?

我们得到的答案加起来可能达到140%。

We get perhaps a 140%.

对。

Yes.

但如果反过来，让A写下A、B、C、D各自完成了多少工作，那么作为A，我突然就会更认真地考虑B、C、D的贡献。

But if instead we ask A to write down what percent of the work was done by A, B, C, and D, now all of a sudden, I as A will think about B, C, and D in a more significant way.

我会意识到他们其实也做了不少重要的工作。

I'll realize that they, in fact, did do some important work.

那个140%就降下来了。

And that 140% falls.

所以，原本每个人自我报告的贡献总和是140%，这个多报的部分大约减少了一半。

So the 140% as the sum total of what each claimed as credit for themselves seems to come down by about half of the overclaiming.

他们仍然多报了，但可能降到了120%。

They're still overclaiming, but it's down to perhaps 120%.

也就是说，你现在更关注的是其他人的贡献，而不是你自己的贡献。

In other words, you're focusing now on the contributions of the other people rather than on your own contributions.

对。

Right.

所以我减少了过度揽功的情况，但问题依然存在。

So I'm I'm I I engage in less overclaiming, but there's a there's a problem still.

问题在于，我越是思考这个话题，

And the problem is the fact that I'm thinking more about the topic.

我就越不愿意以后和这些人合作，因为他们干得不够多。

I become even more reluctant to deal with these other folks in the future because they didn't do enough work.

我想他们想得越多，对他们的负面评价也就越多。

I'm thinking more about them, and my negative inferences about them go up as a result.

所以我们减少了过度揽功，但并没有让团队变得更和谐。

So we reduce the overclaiming, but we don't create a more constructive group in this process.

所以过度揽功的一个普遍问题是，如果对方没有尽到自己的那份力，我以后就不想再和他们合作了。

So one of the problems with overclaiming generally is if the other side doesn't do their fair share of the work, I don't wanna work with them in the future.

所以，要合理分配功劳，一个方法就是遵循哲学家约翰·罗尔斯的建议。

So one way to apportion credit properly is to follow the advice of the philosopher John Rawls.

你能解释一下你这话是什么意思吗，马克斯？

Can you explain what you mean by this, Max?

当然可以。

Sure.

约翰·罗尔斯的基本观点是，如果你想思考一个公正的社会应该是什么样子，就需要戴上无知之幕。

So John Rawls basically argues if you wanna think about what a just society should look like, you need to put on a veil of ignorance.

你需要忘记自己是男是女。

You need to forget about whether you're male or female.

你需要忘记自己是美国人还是立陶宛人。

You need to forget about whether you're American or from Lithuania.

你需要放下所有个人身份，去设想如果你不知道自己在社会中扮演什么角色，世界应该如何运转。

You need to sort of drop all of your own identity to try to imagine how the world should operate if you didn't know what role you had in society.

在一系列研究中，我们发现，让人们尝试戴上无知之幕，能让他们以更公平、更客观的方式思考什么是公正。

And across a number of studies, we find that getting people to try to put on a veil of ignorance allows them to think about what would be just in a much fairer and more objective way.

所以，当你遇到任何争执时，如果能跳出自己是房东或租户的身份，从第三方的角度思考什么是公平的解决方案，你就更有可能找到解决纠纷的公平办法。

So anytime you're in a dispute, if you could get yourself out of the fact that you're the the landlord or you're the tenant and think about what a fair resolution would be from the perspective of a third party, you're more likely to have a bearing on what would be a fair settlement to whatever dispute you happen to be involved in.

这种运用无知之幕的理念在很多不同的研究中都有出现。

And this idea of using the veil of ignorance comes up across lots and lots of different studies.

最近，我和乔什·格林等人甚至研究了稀缺资源的分配问题。

So more recently, with Josh Green and others, we even looked at the allocation of scarce resources.

比如，可以想象一下在新冠疫情期间，谁该获得有限的医疗资源。

Like, could imagine who gets the limited health resources under COVID.

假设现在只剩下一台呼吸机，谁用上它就能活下来，用不上就会死。

And so imagine, for example, there is only one ventilator left, and whoever gets it lives, and whoever doesn't get it dies.

是的。

Yeah.

然后，一位65岁的老人比一位25岁的年轻人早到了两分钟。

And the 65 year old arrives two minutes before the 25 year old.

对。

Yeah.

如果我们问，谁应该得到它？

And if we ask the question, who should get it?

我们发现，人们往往会偏向于跟自己更像的那一方。

We find that people tend to be self serving in the in the direction of which of the two people are more like themselves.

所以老年人偏向65岁的人，年轻人偏向25岁的人。

So old people are biased towards the 65 year old, young people toward the 25 year old.

但如果鼓励人们不考虑自己的年龄背景，去思考怎样才公平。

But if we encourage people to think about what would be fair if they don't consider their own demographics.

那么大家突然意识到，25岁的人平均比65岁的人多活很多年。

And now all of a sudden people realize that the 25 year old has many, many more years to live than the 65 year old on average.

这样一来，我们问到的那些老年人也开始转变态度，愿意把有限的资源给到最能发挥作用的地方，这正符合我们所说的“无知之幕”所代表的公平原则。

And now there's a shift among old the older people we ask this question to to give this limited resource to where it can do the most good, consistent with what we think roles would mean by putting on a veil of ignorance.

我在想，在我们生活的现代世界里，我们现在合作的方式有很多种，不只是跟走廊对面的人面对面合作，还有远程工作的人，以及在世界其他地方工作的人。

I'm wondering in the modern world in which we live, Max, there are so many ways in which we now collaborate not just with people, you know, face to face who are working down the corridor from us, but people who are working remotely, people who are working in other parts of the world.

我想，在这种情况下，公平地分配功劳、理解别人的贡献、以及在谈判中理解对方付出了什么，这些挑战比以前要难得多。

You know, I would imagine that the challenge of of apportioning credit fairly, of understanding what other people might be contributing, of understanding in a negotiation what somebody else is giving becomes so much harder now than it was before.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

你正好点出了游戏规则变化的一个重要方面。

And you're highlighting one of the important ways in which the game has changed.

我们现在打交道的人，比以往任何时候都更多样化。

We deal with more people who differ from us today than we ever did before.

所以我们更频繁地与不同地点、不同族群的人打交道。

And so we're dealing with people in different locations, from different ethnic groups on a much, much more regular basis.

而且很多时候我们连面都见不到。

And we're often doing it without seeing them face to face.

对。

Yeah.

所以，人们与我们的联系越疏远、认同感越弱，就越容易低估他们为合作带来的价值。

So the farther people get both in terms of our connectivity to them and our identification with them, the the easier it is to not place full value on what they're bringing to the deal.

那你怎么解决这个问题呢？

And how do you how do you fix that?

因为，当然，我不知道我们是否还会回到一个所有谈判都面对面进行的时代。

Because, of course, I don't know if we're going to go back to a world where all of the negotiations are always going to be face to face.

我的意思是，我们现在所处的世界，无论好坏，都离不开虚拟沟通和跨越多个时区的交接。

I mean, we are in a world now where, for better or worse, we are stuck with, you know, virtual communications and and handoffs that can span many, many time zones.

对。

Yeah.

所以，首先，其实已经提到了一个答案。

So to begin with, kind of already brought up an answer.

我们能在多大程度上戴上无知之幕，从而不被自己的视角所偏见？

To what extent can we put on a veil of ignorance so that we're not as biased by our own lens?

我们发现，如果要求人们戴上无知之幕，从中立的角度思考问题，他们通常能做到。

We have found that people are pretty good at taking a neutral perspective if we ask them to and to put on a veil of ignorance and think about that problem.

所以，并不是我们没有能力考虑对方的立场。

So it's not that we're incapable of thinking about the other side.

只是我们通常不会那么做。

We simply don't.

而且对方离我们越远，我们就越容易忽视他们在谈判中的关键作用。

And the more they're distant from us, the easier it is to ignore their critical role in a negotiation.

所以，只要停下来，站在对方的立场上思考，不仅会让你显得更友善，从策略上讲，也会让你更有效地理解对方在谈判中的角色。

So simply stopping and and adopting in the perspective of the of the other side not only makes you a nicer person, but it strategically makes you a more effective person to understand who they are in the negotiation.

而未能考虑对方的立场，正是阻碍谈判者提高效率的主要障碍之一。

And the failure to consider the perspective of the other side is one of the key barriers that keeps negotiators from being more effective.

我想给你放一段电视剧《办公室》的片段。

I want to play you a clip from the television show, The Office.

在这段里，由史蒂夫·卡瑞尔饰演的迈克尔·斯科特辞去了他在一家纸张供应公司的经理职位，并创办了一家竞争公司。

In this clip, Michael Scott, played by Steve Carell, has quit his job as the manager of a paper supply company and started a rival firm.

迈克尔和他的商业伙伴现在正在与他前公司的首席财务官谈判，讨论出售他们的初创公司。

Michael and his business partner are now negotiating with the chief financial officer of his former company about selling their startup.

迈克尔，为了加快谈判进程，我们准备给你一个非常慷慨的报价。

Michael, in order to expedite these negotiations, we are prepared to make you a very generous offer.

——而我们准备拒绝这个报价。

-And we are prepared to reject that offer.

迈克尔，你还没听呢——我们绝不会接受他们的第一个报价。

-Michael, you haven't even heard -We'll never accept their first offer.

你们的第二个报价是多少？

What is your second offer?

一万两千美元——你是在开玩笑吗？

-twelve thousand dollars -Are you kidding me?

这个价格低得侮辱人。

That is insultingly low.

我连你们的第一个报价都不想听。

I don't even wanna hear what your first offer was.

麦克斯，从某种角度说，这当然是喜剧，但我们在现实生活中都会这样。

I mean, in some ways, Max, this is comedy, of course, but all of us do this in real life.

在谈判中，我们就是根本不关注对方在意什么。

We simply don't pay attention to what's important to the other side in a negotiation.

不听对方说话，这道理明显得有点过头了。

There is something kind of over the top obvious about not listening to the other side.

但在现实生活中，我们常常把谈判简单地看作讨价还价，其实如果我们能更有策略地思考，问问自己：我怎样才能最好地理解对方提出这个报价的视角？这样效果会好得多。

But so often in real life, we we think of negotiation simply as a haggling session when we could do be so much more effective if we think about it strategically by asking, how can I best understand the perspective in which they're making me an offer?

他们公司有多需要我？

To what extent do they need me in their firm?

如果我不接受他们的报价，他们会怎么做？

What are they going to do if if I don't accept their offer?

这能帮我判断自己能把事情推进到多有利的程度。

This helps me to formulate how far I can push things to my advantage.

这也为理解哪些地方存在有趣的交换机会提供了基础。

It also provides a basis for understanding where there's interesting opportunities for trades.

其实，这很大程度上取决于我们自己的思维锚定，Max。

I mean, so much of this comes down to how we are anchored in our own minds, Max.

我们刚才讨论的很多内容，归根结底都是自我中心主义的问题。

So much of what we've been talking about here, you know, comes down to the problem of ecocentrism.

我们总是从自己的角度看问题。

We are seeing things from our perspective.

我们看问题的方式太狭隘了。

We are seeing things from a narrow perspective.

我们无法跳出自己的思维定式。

We're not able to get out of our own headspace.

我们总在寻找能印证自己原有想法的证据。

We seek confirming evidence to back up what we previously thought.

我们不会主动去跟谈判对象了解更多信息。

We don't go out and seek more information from the people we are negotiating with.

所有这些都说明我们被困在了自己的思维里。

All of these are ways in which we are trapped inside our own heads.

对。

That's right.

你刚才说的这种情况，有个很好的例子就是琳达·巴布科克和乔治·洛温斯坦的研究。

So sort of a wonderful example of what you just described is the work of Linda Babcock and George Lowenstein.

他们主要研究的是法律纠纷中的人。

They basically study people in a legal dispute.

大家都同意确实发生了事故。

So everyone agrees that there's been an accident.

他们发现，原告方——也就是代表受害方的人——认为案件的价值大约是被告方认为的两倍。

And and what they what they find is that the plaintiff's role, the the the role representing the injured party, think that the case is worth roughly twice what the party representing the defendant thinks it's worth.

对。

Yeah.

有些人会说，但这只是个模拟而已。

And some people say, but it's only a simulation.

可能只是个模拟，但一旦我们把人放到那些角色里，

It may only be a simulation, but once we put people in those roles

是的。

Yeah.

他们就开始相信自己的立场在某种程度上具有道德正义性，而对方则缺乏这一点。

They begin to believe their side has some kind of moral justice to it that the other side lacks at a level.

我知道这些年来，你收到了很多关于谈判建议的请求，而且你经常接到你所谓的‘周日晚上房地产电话’。

I understand that over the years, you have fielded many requests for negotiation advice, and you regularly receive what you have termed the Sunday night real estate call.

麦克斯，这个电话指的是什么？

What is this call, Max?

好的。

Sure.

首先，为什么是周日晚上？

So first of all, why Sunday night?

答案是美国住宅房地产市场中的开放日制度。

And the answer is the American institution of the open house in the residential real estate market.

所以周日是人们最常在网上发布房屋开放时间的日子，这样你不需要预约就能去看房子，无论是独栋、公寓还是其他类型。

So Sunday is the most common day for people to post a time online about when their house will be open so you can go take a look at the house without having an appointment, a house, condo, whatever.

因此，房地产市场上大量的看房活动都发生在周日。

And as a result, an awful lot of house visitations on the real estate market occur on Sunday.

这意味着经纪人周日下午晚些时候和傍晚会很忙，因为人们有时会在这时候决定出价。

This means that agents are busy on late Sunday afternoon, early evening, as people sometimes decide to make an offer.

举个例子，周日晚上九点半，我在家，电话响了。

So in an example of the story, I'm at home on Sunday night and it's 09:30 and my phone rings.

我接起电话，说了声你好。

And I pick up the phone and say hi.

电话那头的人自我介绍说，他是我一个朋友的朋友。

And on the other end of the line is somebody who introduces themselves as a friend of a friend of mine.

因为我很喜欢我们共同的朋友，所以尽管这个时间打电话，我还是想保持礼貌。

And I like our mutual friends, so I wanna be polite despite the timing of the phone call.

在介绍完自己是我朋友的朋友之后，他们说明了打电话的原因。

And after introducing themselves as a friend of a friend of mine, they explain why they're calling.

他们今天下午看了一栋房子。

They looked at a house this afternoon.

实际上，过去三个月他们一直在看房子。

In fact, they've been looking at houses for the last three months.

他们已经看了超过20栋房子了。

They've looked at over 20 houses.

但今天他们找到了一栋非常棒的房子，然后开始向我详细描述那栋房子的情况。

But today they found an amazing house, and they proceed to describe it to me in intricate detail.

他们好像以为我在周日晚上会在乎房子长什么样。

They seem to be under the illusion that on Sunday night, I care what it looks like.

但他们接着说打电话的原因。

But they proceed to the reason for the call.

那栋房子挂牌价是59万9千美元。

So the house is listed for $599,000.

实际上，当天下午四点半，他们出价55万美元。

Earlier in the day, at 04:30 in the afternoon, in fact, they made an offer for $550,000.

是的。

Yes.

所以挂牌价是59.9万，他们出价55万。

So $5.99 offer, asking, and they offered $5.50.

那天晚上，他们去我们共同的朋友家吃晚饭。

And that evening, they went to our mutual friend's house for dinner.

大约十分钟前，中介回电话说卖家还价到58.5万。

And about ten minutes ago, the agent called back and said that the seller had countered at $5.85.

对。

Yeah.

他们想知道接下来该怎么办，因为之前他们跟朋友聊过，朋友说他知道该怎么做。

And they wanna know what they should do next because they had been talking with their friend who said, I know what to do.

给马克斯打电话。

Let's call Max.

他是教谈判的。

He teaches negotiation.

当我接到这个电话时——我保证这种电话我接过无数次了——我问他们的第一件事是，如果买不到这房子，他们打算怎么办？

And when I get this call, and and I promise you I've received some version of this call so many times, the first thing I ask them is what are they going to do if they don't buy this house?

对。

Yeah.

他们通常的回答是，马克斯，我们打电话不是来问怎么不买房的。

And they typically respond with some notion of, Max, we didn't call you for how not to buy the house.

我们是来请教怎么才能买到这房子的。

We called you for advice on how to buy the house.