#282 – 媒体与科技之争、推特怪兽及内容变现百万之道，与a16z的Steph Smith对话

哦，真的吗？

Oh, really?

可能是我最后一次出场了

Probably the last time I ever rolled

搞砸了？

a ruin it?

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

是好事还是坏事？

Is good thing or a bad thing?

你非得搞砸不可

You gotta gotta screw I'm

只是很兴奋。

just excited.

我不喜欢做演讲，所以我再也不会上台演讲了。

I don't like giving talks, so I'm never gonna give a talk again.

但那次在HustleCon的演讲其实挺有趣的。

But the one at HustleCon was actually fun.

我记得是在舞台上，差不多在大堂里做的演讲。

I remember giving it in, like, on stage, like, kind of in the lobby.

但后来你们关闭了HustleCon。

But But then you guys shut down Hustle Con.

我一直觉得HustleCon太棒了，因为那简直是轻松赚钱。

And I always thought Hustle Con was brilliant because it was just like easy money.

你聚集了一群酷炫又聪明的人。

You get a bunch of cool, smart people.

他们来演讲，还帮你完成所有内容创作。

They come talk on they do all the content creation for you.

显然，你的工作还是很辛苦的。

Obviously, like, your job is still hard.

你得协调一堆演讲者，还要把所有票都卖出去。

You gotta wrangle a bunch of speakers and get, like, sell all these tickets.

但我认为你们可能赚得不少，你

But I think you guys are probably making You

你得准备一下，考特兰。

have to prepare Courtland.

你得发言

You gotta talk

跟我聊聊。

to me.

听起来真够头疼的。

Sounds like a headache.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我是个娇气鬼。

I'm a diva.

不。

No.

但我以为你们每次办HustleCon都能赚六位数到七位数出头，这似乎是让很多人与HustleCon产生关联的好方法。

But I thought you guys were making, like, high 6 figures, low 7 figures for HustleCon every time you did it, and it seemed like a great way to get, like, a bunch of people associated with HustleCon.

然后你们就停办了。

And then you shut it down.

为什么要把一个赚钱的项目停掉？

Why shut down something that was lucrative?

反正感觉挺赚钱的。

It felt lucrative anyway.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我觉得我并不太适合谈这个，因为我是在HustleCon的最后一年加入的，当时我主要负责趋势相关的工作。

So I mean, I feel like I'm not super equipped to talk about this because I joined in that last year of HustleCon, and I was mostly working on trends.

但我想说的是，根据我对活动行业的理解，这些活动利润非常丰厚。

But what I'll say is, I think, from my understanding of the events business, is they were super profitable.

‘容易’这个词在这里有点奇怪，但意思是，我们知道只要举办这个活动，就知道会有多少人来。

Was an easy easy is kind of a funny term here, but an easy way to be we know if we run this event, we know this, many people will come.

我们知道可以以X价格售出门票，并找到赞助商，从而赚取Y收入。

We know we can sell tickets for X and have sponsors and make Y.

但我认为这对团队来说非常疲惫。

But I think it was really exhausting for the team.

而且我认为还存在一种情况：HustleCon刚起步时规模有多大？我们是举办一场面向1000人的活动，每人收费200美元，还是保持小型规模？

And I think there's also a dynamic of, well, do we run I don't know how big HustleCon was when it first started, but it's like, do we run an event that's for 1,000 people and charge $200 Or do we keep it small?

我认为早期它规模较小，人们觉得非常亲密，我不确定。

Which I think it was smaller in early days, and people felt like it was really intimate and I don't know.

我认为随着Hustle公司迅速扩张，这件事变得越来越复杂。

I think it just as the hustle the company blew up, it became more complex.

于是我们开始想：我们是否应该专注于这个？

And it was like, should we focus on this?

还是我们干脆搞一个规模庞大的通讯，这样更容易快速扩大？

Or do we have this massively scaling newsletter that is just way easier to kind of crank up?

不过我会去问问萨姆。

I would ask Sam, though.

我肯定他发过推文谈过这事，但我真不知道他们最终为什么决定停办。

I I'm sure he's tweeted about it, but I don't actually know why they decided to ultimately shut it down.

是的。

Yeah.

我们这里也面临同样的困境。

We have the same dilemma here.

我一个朋友告诉我，你们得搞活动。

A friend of mine was telling me, like, you guys gotta get into events.

你们应该办一个独立开发者大会。

Like, you should you should host an indie hackers conference.

肯定会大获成功，等等等等。

It would do so well, etcetera, etcetera.

我觉得，发展通讯简报要容易得多。

I'm like, but it's so much easier to grow a newsletter.

所以简单了上千倍。

So It's a thousand times easier.

天哪。

Oh my god.

举办活动真的很辛苦。

Running events is tough.

就连我们为趋势举办一些小型活动时，都觉得太累了。

Like, even we would do some small events for trends, and it was just like, oh, man.

是啊，我宁愿待在谷歌文档里。

Like, yeah, I'd I'd just rather be in a Google Doc.

我更愿意写点酷炫的东西。

Rather, like, write something cool.

听起来显然让人精疲力尽。

It sounds it it sounds obviously exhausting.

不过我也在想，我们讨论这种方式时，几乎完全是基于纯粹的投资回报率，而不是像其他类型的通讯或其他可以变现的内容。

Though I also wonder if it's like the way that we're talking about it is almost like pure ROI versus other, you know, like newsletters or any other kind of content that you can monetize.

但举个例子，看看萨姆和肖恩的《My First Million》现在举办的那些大型活动，我看到了他们规模惊人的活动。

But, I mean, to take Sam and Sean with My First Million Now, I'm seeing some of their, like, gigantic events.

对我来说，这就像是，好吧。

And to me, it's like, okay.

一方面，我确信他们通过门票赚了一些钱，但更重要的是，这些活动极大地提升了他们的品牌形象——那么多人都聚集在一起的场面。

Well, on the one hand, I'm sure they they're making some money on tickets, but there's also, like, this massive boost to their brand, like just the image of all these people.

我几乎想做两件事：尽可能多地吸引人到场，然后拍一张合影。

It's almost I almost want to do two, get as many people as we could have there, then just get a photo op.

把这张照片作为我们的营销素材，用作Instagram或某个平台的主页。

Make that our marketing material, make it our landing page for Instagram or something.

我不知道。

I don't know.

不过这里有两点非常重要。

Mean, there's two really important points there.

第一点是，是的，我不认为可以忽视这种想法：如果你在内容业务中做一些特定的事情，你能让人们觉得它值得关注。

The first is, yes, I would not discount the idea that certain If you do certain things with your content business, you can convince people that it's something worth paying attention to.

比如，有些简单的方法，我觉得我见过一些播客主这么做。

Like, there's simple things, like, think I've seen, you know, some podcasters do this.

我不会说出是谁。

I won't say who.

他们会直接说：这是最棒的一集。

Who will just be like, this was the best episode.

比如，你知道，这位嘉宾来了。

Like, this, you know, this this person came on.

他表现得简直太出色了。

They absolutely crushed it.

这是我最喜欢的那一集。

This is my favorite episode.

他们会每隔第五集就做一次这样的宣传。

And they'll do it, like, every fifth episode.

但如果你看看那些推文和YouTube评论，就会发现所有人都在说，天哪。

But if you look at the, you know, the tweets and the the YouTube comments, it's, you know, all these people who are like, oh my god.

真的太对了。

It's so true.

比如，某某人是最棒的。

Like, insert person here is the best.

多请一些这样的人。

Like, more of them.

请他们来吧。

Bring them on.

请他们来吧。

Bring them on.

所以我一次次地看到这种情况。

And so I've just seen this over and over.

这是一种集体性的现象。

There is this, like, collective.

我们本质上是具有社群属性的人。

We are, like, communal people.

这一点不应该被忽视。

That's something that shouldn't be discounted.

我的意思是，人们在多大程度上使用这种属性，其范围非常广。

Mean, there's a huge spectrum of how much you want to use that.

我其实不太使用这类策略。

I don't really use those kind of tactics.

但我认识很多使用这类策略的人。

But I know tons of people who do.

但另一点是，我觉得很多人认为内容是一个整体，而播客尤其特殊，因为转化受众需要很长时间。

But the other thing is, like, I think a lot of people think content is a monolith, and I think podcasts in particular are really special in that way because it takes forever to convert people.

但再说一次，是否应该设置付费墙的问题，除非你是iHeartRadio之类的大平台，否则我认为几乎从来都不应该对播客设置付费墙。

But again, this idea of whether you should gate or not, unless you're part of iHeartRadio or something like that, I think it's really, really rare where you should ever gate a podcast.

然后，当我帮助打造HubSpot创作者计划时，我们正在研究付款条款。

And then I think when I was helping to build the HubSpot creator program, we were trying to figure out the payment terms.

我不认为我能分享所有内容。

And I don't think I can share everything.

但我认为创作者们一贯的误判是，在这个项目中，我们和《My First Million》一样，允许所有创作者在播客推送源之外进行盈利，比如开发周边商品、举办活动，甚至可能进行更多富有创意的尝试。

But the consistent, I think, miscalculation that creators were making were that, in that program, we let same with My First Million we let all creators monetize everything outside of the podcast feed itself, meaning they could create merch, meaning they could run events, meaning they could do probably much more creative things than that.

而这才是你在播客中赚钱的地方，对吧？

And that is where you make money in podcasts, right?

除非你是在向Spotify销售，否则想想你们在《My First Million》中看到的：他们从RSS推送源能赚多少， versus 他们通过这个品牌所构建的整个生态能赚多少。

Unless you're selling to Spotify, think about you guys recognize this with My First Million, how much they could make from the RSS feed versus how much they can make with the whole spectrum of things that has been built with this brand.

而后者要大得多。

And the latter is way bigger.

是的。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Totally.

而且，内容本身你也不应该设限，因为这本身就是一种营销。

And also, the former, the content itself, you don't want to gate because that doubles as your marketing.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Mhmm.

没错。

Exactly.

赚钱的方式不止一种，如果你把内容设为付费，突然间你就触达不了那么多人了，他们无法了解到你，也无法成为你的客户。

It's not only like one way to make money, but it's like, okay, well if you like gate that, suddenly you're reaching many fewer people who don't hear about you and can't become your customers.

所以，我认为我同意你的观点。

So it's I think I agree with you.

还有，就像你提到的Naval Ravikant的粉丝那样，他曾经说过一件事我很认同，那就是他从不为内容收费。

And Channing like to your sort of Naval, Ravacant fanboy ing at the beginning, this is another thing that he said that I like, which is kind of like, he would never charge for his content.

对吧？

Right?

这可以说是最具可扩展性的方式之一。

Like, it's one of the most scalable things.

它可以被分享。

It's shareable.

它会传播出去。

It gets out.

人们之所以知道他是谁，不是因为他的投资。

Like, the reason why anybody knows who he is is not because of, like, the investments he's made.

而是因为他的内容，他写的东西，对。

It's because of the content that he's written Mhmm.

他只是在推特上发布，而推特有个巨大的转发按钮。

Which he just puts out on Twitter, which has a big fat retweet button.

而且他不会收费，比如转发一次收五美元。

And there's no, like, charge money for this, like, retweet for $5.

就是不收费。

It's like, no.

我希望越多的人分享越好，然后我会用其他方式聪明地赚钱。

I want as many people to share this as possible, and I'll figure out other ways to be clever and smart about making money.

没错。

Exactly.

而且很多像纳瓦尔这样聪明的人，都受益于我刚才说的这一点——当你反复听到纳瓦尔的声音，不知不觉中，你就开始完全认同他说的每一句话了。

And a lot of smart people like Naval have benefited from that thing I said, where it's just like it it almost feels like there's an inflection point where you just, like, you hear Naval enough times, and all of a sudden, like, he becomes this person where you, like, buy into everything he says.

对吧？

Right?

我的第一百万频道也是同样的情况。

And same thing with My First Million.

我亲眼见证了这个播客的成长。

I watched that podcast get built.

刚开始它并不大，毕竟所有东西起步时都是微不足道的。

It wasn't big to start, just, like, nothing is big to start.

然后突然间就到了一个转折点，它一下子进入了大众的视野，你看到太多人说：这两个人真有意思。

And there was just this inflection where all of a sudden it was just, like, in the zeitgeist where you just saw enough people being, these guys are funny.

然后你就开始觉得，他们说的每句话都特别好笑。

And all of a sudden, you're like laughing at everything they say.

有时候从内部观察这些事情真的很有趣，因为你就会想，是的。

And it's just it it's fascinating to see these things from the inside sometimes because you're like Yeah.

什么都没变，但大家的想法在某个时刻突然改变了。

Nothing changed yet everyone's minds changed at one point.

对。

Yeah.

这就像一个临界点。

It was just like like a tipping point.

那你和 a16z 之间是怎么回事？

So what's the deal with you with you at a16z?

我的意思是，我知道当钱宁和我加入 Stripe 时，这真的很有趣，因为我一直抱有 modest 的抱负。

I mean, I know when Channing and I joined Stripe, it was really interesting because I always had modest ambitions.

我只是想做个独立开发者。

I'm like, wanna be an indie hacker.

我只想付得起房租。

I wanna pay my rent.

然后帕特里克打电话过来说，不，不，不，不。

And then it's try Patrick calls and was like, no, no, no, no.

你们需要改变创业的面貌。

You guys need to change the face of entrepreneurship.

我当时想，哦，这不一样。

I'm like, oh, that's different.

你们在a16z的时候也有过类似的情况吗？

Did you have a similar thing like that at a16z?

我的意思是，你们在运营播客。

I mean, you're running, like, podcasts.

那你们的目标是什么？

Like, what's what's the goal there?

你们的使命是什么？

What's your mission?

是的。

Yeah.

这个播客已经播了很久。

So the podcast has run for a long time.

索诺·乔克希负责运营它。

Sono Chokshi ran it.

她非常出色。

She's amazing.

她现在负责a16z的《她真棒》播客。

She now runs She's awesome.

Web3与a16z，这是a16z运营的另一个播客。

Web three with a16z, another podcast that a16z runs.

所以，某种程度上，这很有趣，因为除了这个，我做的其他所有事情——即使像趋势分析——我都是在趋势刚起步时就介入了。

So in a way, was interesting because everything else I've done, even trends, when you think about it, I came right at the beginning of trends.

所以，进入一个已经存在的项目，感觉很不一样。

So it was different to come into something that had already existed.

然后，也许你暗示的是，a16z的品牌影响力如此之大，而我并不想成为品牌的代言人，但问题是：我该如何做，才能既履行这个角色，又恰如其分地代表品牌？

And then also maybe what you're alluding to is like a16z has such a big brand and I'm like how do I not that I am a representative of the brand per se but it's like how do I do this in a way that, like, you know, fills that role but also, like, represents the brand the way it should?

而且，我不知道。

And, like, I don't know.

我花了差不多一年时间，现在才真正开始融入其中。

It took I'm, like, a year in, and I feel like I'm just really getting into things.

我觉得我正在

I feel like I'm, like

是的。

Yeah.

在证明自己的价值。

Earning my keep.

我觉得一年后我们终于开始尝试新东西了。

I feel like we're finally experimenting a year in and, like, doing new things.

但我认为这个播客本身只是我们融入时代潮流的一种方式，讨论科技，成为这个领域的领导者，以类似‘趋势’节目的方式报道那些话题。

But I think the podcast itself is just, like, a way for us to, be in the zeitgeist, to be talking about technology, to be leaders in that space, to be covering the things that kind of in a similar way to trends.

也就是说，如果我们做得好的话，我们谈论的不是其他人都在报道的那些事情。

It's like, we're not just talking about the things that if we're doing our job right that everyone else is covering.

希望我们所拥有的资源和内部信息，能够让我们走在潮流前面，为未来的创业者和下一代展示他们可以打造的东西。

Hopefully, the access we have, the intel we have that we can share allows us to be ahead of the curve and to be showing future entrepreneurs, future waves, what they can build.

你们在播客方面经验丰富，尤其是现在在a16z。

You have a lot of podcast experience between, obviously, now a16z.

你曾经运营或正在运营自己的播客。

You ran or run your own podcast.

当然，你也见证了萨姆和肖恩从默默无闻成长为超级明星的过程。

I mean, obviously, then you also saw Sam and Sean grow from not superstars into superstars.

那么，你觉得人们常犯的那些重大错误有哪些呢？

So what are some of the, like, you know, big mistakes that people make?

是的。

Yeah.

你现在对播客有哪些了解，是普通新手播客主还不知道的？

What do you what do you what do you know about podcasting now that you think that the average newbie podcaster doesn't know?

不过，这些内容听起来都不会像什么高深的科学。

Well, none of this is gonna sound like rocket science.

但人们最容易犯的错误是，就连我在制作a16z播客时也在摸索正确的做法——很多人持有这样一种观念。

But the number one thing that people get wrong, and I still am figuring out the right way to do this with the a16z podcast, is many people and this is a belief.

我不确定这有没有相关研究支持。

Like, I don't know if there's studies or anything on this.

但我认为，很多人听播客时，

But many people listen to podcasts, I think.

他们告诉自己是为了获取信息。

They tell themselves for information.

但实际上，他们追求的是娱乐。

But really, they're looking for entertainment.

即使当人们向朋友推荐《My First Million》时，他们可能会说，哦，这节目有最棒的商业点子。

Even when people go and they describe My First Million to a Friend, they might be like, oh, they've got the best business ideas.

他们采访了这些了不起的创业者。

They talk to these great entrepreneurs.

但说实话，我喜欢萨姆和肖恩，但如果你听一些集数，内容其实已经没什么深度了。

But really I mean, I love Sam and Sean, but if you listen to some episodes, there's not much meat there anymore.

他们更倾向于娱乐性，而这些主持人本身就是杰出的娱乐者。

They're much more leaning into the entertainment, which incredible entertainers.

实际上，如果你听一下早期的节目，他们会变得越来越出色的娱乐者，因为他们意识到人们真正想要的是什么，并且磨练了这项技能。

And I'd actually say, if you listen to the earlier episodes, they've become exponentially better entertainers because they've realized this is what people are looking for, and they've honed in that skill.

所以，这并不是对每个人都适用。

And so this is not, again, true for everyone.

我认为有些人确实只想听一些关于科技的深度研究型播客。

I think there are some people who really just want to listen to a deeply researched podcast about technology.

但我认为，尤其是在科技领域，人们往往会带着这样的想法来：好吧，我要深入研究这位嘉宾，向他们提出所有技术性很强的问题，挖掘出一些人们从未听说过的内容。

But I think a lot of the time, especially being in tech, people will kind of come to the table and be like, Okay, I'm going to really deeply research this guest, and I'm going to ask them all the really technical questions and surface things people haven't heard of.

但我认为，播客这种媒介，当你花上半小时到一小时，有时像莱克斯·弗里德曼那样花上四小时、八小时与某人交谈时，

But I think the medium of podcasting, when you're spending, let's say, half an hour to an hour with someone sometimes, if you're Lex Friedman, four hours, eight hours with folks.

是的。

Yeah.

疯狂。

Crazy.

人们希望在那里感受到某种人性。

People want some sort of humanity there.

所以山姆和肖恩是以幽默的方式做到的。

And so Sam and Sean do it in a humorous way.

莱克斯·弗里德曼则是以非常内省的方式做到的。

Lex Friedman does it in a very introspective way.

你还可以为播客带来其他各种风格。

There's other kind of tones that you can bring to a podcast.

但这一点正是我正在努力弄清楚的。

But that's something I'm trying to even figure out.

这就像是，我该如何代表一个组织来融合某些东西？

It's like, how do I marry something on behalf of an organization?

我的意思是，想想看，这就是为什么大多数企业播客会失败，对吧？

I mean, even think about, this is why most corporate podcasts fail, right?

因为它们只是说，我们来聊聊这些话题吧。

Because they're like, let's just, like, talk about these subjects.

是的，完全没有个性。

Yeah, there's no personality.

对，完全没有任何个性。

Yeah, there's zero personality.

这也是我正在探索的问题，我不确定你们两位有没有这种感觉。

And that's also something I'm figuring out on I don't know if either of you find this.

当我作为嘉宾时，你们现在可以看到，我变得很活跃。

When I'm a guest, you can see right now, I'm getting animated.

但当我作为主持人时，不知为什么，我会变得拘谨起来。

When I'm a host, I shrink in for some reason, in a way.

我不知道这是为什么，但我只是变得过于执着于确保我问的问题都是对的。

I don't know what it is, but I just get more obsessive of, like, let me make sure I'm asking the right questions.

确保整个对话的结构是好的。

Let me make sure the arc is good.

但其实人们并不太在意这些，这正是我想说的

But people actually don't care about that as much, is what I'm

这是因为，作为一个真实的人，意味着要展现出你的个性。

It's because, like, being a real person means, like, you know, having your personality out.

这就像扮演一个角色，但作为主持人却表现得像个角色，会让你觉得抢了别人的风头，是的。

It's like being a character, but being a host kinda feels wrong to be a character because you feel like you're taking the spotlight off Yeah.

嘉宾。

The guest.

不，不是这样的。

You're like, no.

我觉得我应该把焦点放在他们身上。

I like I should, like, you know, shed the spotlight on them.

他们是嘉宾。

They're the guest.

我需要退到一边，但这并不是大家想要的。

I need to step aside, but that's not what anyone wants.

比如，人们听霍华德·斯特恩的节目。

Like, people listen to Howard Stern.

他做的一切都像在扮演角色，因为他本身就是一个荒诞可笑的人。

He's like a character in everything he does because he's such a ridiculous human being.

但我觉得大多数播客都是这样，肖恩在刚开始做《My First Million》时也跟我提过，那时候只有他一个人。

But I think in most podcast and then Sean told me this too when he was starting My First Million, back when it was just him.

他说：‘这些科技类播客都是由没有个性的科技人士创办的。’

He was like, oh, all these tech podcasts are started by tech with no personalities.

像我，我才不是那样的人。

Like, I that's not me.

我要进来，用不一样的方式来做。

I'm gonna I'm gonna come in here and do it different.

他完全说对了。

And he's totally right.

关键是娱乐。

Like, it's about entertainment.

人们想要被娱乐。

People wanna be entertained.

如果人们真的想学习，我认为他们首先不会戴上耳机听播客。

And if people really wanna learn, like, I don't think the first thing they do is, like, pick up their headphones and put on a podcast.

他们通常会先上网搜索、阅读文章、买本书，或者找人聊聊，对吧？

Like, they usually start googling things, reading articles, buy a book, right, talk to people.

但如果他们戴上耳机听播客，那其实只是想打发接下来的三十分钟到一小时。

But if they put their headphones on, if they listen to a podcast, they really just wanna pass, you know, the next thirty minutes to an hour.

是的。

Yep.

最棒的播客、最成功的那些，往往把人们对娱乐的真正渴望，和某种表面的合理借口结合在一起。

And the best podcast, the most successful ones, like, marry that true desire for entertainment with some sort of surface level justification that people can tell themselves.

有用的假象。

The illusion of usefulness.

他们会觉得，哦，当然了，我每周花两小时听这个人或这些人的节目，是因为我在了解商业趋势，或者在学习如何更高效，诸如此类。

Yeah, that they were like, oh, yeah, of course, I'll spend two hours a week listening to this person or these people, because I'm learning about business trends, or I'm learning about how to be more productive, or whatever.

但说到底，有多少人，包括我自己在内，会有一些特定的播客，让我举个例子。

But at the end of the day, how many people, like myself included, there are certain podcasts, let me throw one out there.

安德鲁·休伯曼，他可是登顶了播客排行榜。

Andrew Huberman, he's like, you know, topped the podcast charts.

我刚开始听他的播客时非常喜欢，但现在却再也听不下去了，因为内容太密集了，虽然非常精彩，我也完全能理解为什么人们会听。

I started listening to his podcast and loved it, and now I can't stomach it because it's so dense, and it's amazing, and I I can completely understand why people listen to it.

但我总觉得需要说服自己去听它，而不是像其他播客那样，一想到就立刻下载，比如这个。

But I I feel the need to convince myself to listen to it instead of, you know, other podcasts where I'm like, oh, let me let me download this right It's

就像做作业。

like homework.

是的。

Yeah.

我有个关于安德鲁·休伯曼的有趣故事，正好说明了这一点。

I have a I have a funny Andrew Huberman story that is exactly that.

我解决了这个问题。

Like, I solved the problem.

哦，你解决了？

Oh, you did?

因为当你像你说的那样听安德鲁·休伯曼的节目时，是为了学习。

Because when you like you say, when you listen to Andrew Huberman, it's it's for education.

而不是为了娱乐。

It's not for entertainment.

是的。

Yep.

但内容实在太密集了。

But but it's so dense.

对吧？

Right?

这就像是，你知道的，几乎像是在选择，你知道的，我想不想读一本新书？

It's like, you know, it's almost like picking it's like, you know, do I wanna read a new book?

嗯。

Mhmm.

就是那种同样的决策疲劳感。

It's that same kind of, like, decision fatigue that you have.

所以我真的雇了一个私人助理，他可以获取一集内容的转录文本，然后将其整理成一本谷歌电子书。

So I literally hired I figured out a a personal assistant who could, like, take an episode, get the transcription, and then turn it into a Google Book.

因为我就喜欢

Because that's I like love

读书

reading books

还有谷歌电子书。

and Google Books.

而且我

And I

可以叫ChatGPT吗？

can like called chat GPT?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，

Well,

因为我的助手做不到。

because my assistant not.

你应该买个助手，然后雇用ChatGPT。

You should buy your assistant and hire chat GPT.

但没错，我觉得这已经说明了一切。

But, yeah, I think that that says everything.

我会感到那种痛苦，那种逼着我不得不走遍所有繁琐步骤，只是为了找到一种更容易消化的呈现方式。

That I would feel the need, like, the the pain that would have me, like, go through all those hoops just to, like, figure out a more digestible format to get it in.

我们上周实际上刚邀请了赛斯·高汀做客播客。

And we actually just had Seth Godin on the on the podcast last week.

我第一次听到有人深入分析如何在会议上做一场好演讲，就是从他那里。

And the first time I heard someone really give an analysis of how to give a good speech, like, at a conference was from him.

他说，人们经常会犯错。

And he's like, people make mistakes all the time.

他们会觉得，哦，我要把我本来写在博客上的内容，或者把我最深刻的见解拿过来。

What they do is they go, oh, I'm gonna take, you know, whatever I would write on, like, a blog post or I'm gonna take my my greatest insights.

我打算搞一个列表式文章，然后好好地把信息灌输给人们。

I'm gonna basically create a listicle, and then I'm gonna go and, like, inform the hell out of people.

他说：你他妈的根本不明白你在这里做什么。

And he's like, you fucking you you don't understand what you're doing here.

对吧？

Right?

你走上舞台。

You're getting on stage.

你想给人们一种体验。

You wanna give people, like, an experience.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你想给他们留下难忘的时刻。

You wanna give them a memorable moment.

你想娱乐他们。

You wanna entertain them.

也许你会为此投入足够多，你知道的，等到以后有人问你‘你去看什么了？为什么去看？’的时候，你就能回答上来了。

And maybe you'll, like, give it enough, you know, sort of meet that later on when someone says, what did you go see and why did you see it?

他们不会说：‘哦，挺有意思的。’

They're not going to be like, oh, well, was really entertaining.

他们会记住几个要点。

They'll have a couple of takeaways.

但那并不是你做这件事的核心原因。

But that's not the core reason why you're doing it.

做播客也是类似的。

And podcasting is very similar.

没错。

Exactly.

这就是为什么播客这么难增长，因为要让人真正投入，直到他们想回来，需要付出太多努力——而大多数时候，人们收听是因为喜欢主持人本人。

And that's why podcasts are so hard to grow, Because it just takes so much work to get someone invested to that point where they want to come back, and they're like, oh, I'm actually because most of the time, you're tuning in for the person.

那么，我该如何让潜在听众多次接触，从而真正认同我所提供的内容呢？

So it's like, how do I get enough hits with this potential listener where they actually buy into whatever I'm offering?

这和写作完全不同。

And it just it's it's unlike writing.

这甚至也和视频不一样，在人们的消费习惯上也是如此。

It's unlike even video in in ways just in in people's consumption habits as well.

你每期播客要准备多久？

How much do you prepare for your podcast on a 16 z?

你会花一个小时准备吗？

Are you doing, like, an hour of prep?

还是整整一周的准备？

Like, a whole week of prep?

比如，

Like,

你投入的时间是从多少变到多少？

it went from time you put into it?

大概从一周变成了一小时。

Probably a week to an hour.

因为我们谈论的一些内容。

Because of some of the things we're talking about.

我们确实有个人偶尔帮我做一些研究，但以前我投入的时间是那种偏执的——比如，当Balaji来参加我们的播客时，

We do have someone who helps me do some of the research sometimes, but it went from this obsessive, oh, my gosh, I'm going to have like, Balaji, for example, came on the pod.

我会读他的书。

I'm going to read his book.

我会听他所有的访谈。

I'm going to listen to just about every interview he's done.

我说真的，我会准备一份30页的问题清单，当然你根本不会用到这些。

I'm not kidding when I say, like, a 30 page document of questions, which obviously you don't get.

你最多也就用到一页，对吧？

You get through a page, right?

对。

Right.

最多就这么多。

At most.

没错。

Exactly.

对，知道。

Yeah, know.

实际上，你只能问完三个问题。

You get through three questions, realistically.

但我确实这么做过。

But I did that.

然后我注意到了自己的一些变化。

And then I noticed things in myself.

第一，有这么多东西摆在面前，反而让我更紧张了，因为我想着天啊，我得确保问到最精彩的部分。

One, just having all that there actually just made me more nervous, because I'm like, oh my gosh, let me make sure I get to the best stuff.

我变得完全不有趣了，对吧？

I was more the opposite of entertaining, right?

因为我试图去引导对话，而不是真正地去倾听对方。

Because I'm trying to facilitate something instead of actually just, like, listening to someone.

所以现在我仍然会做准备，但方式完全不同了。

And so it's now like, I definitely still prep, but just in a totally different way.

我们就是这样。

This is where we are.

我们有一个节目，还有一个半小时。

We're like, got an episode, another hour and a half.

我们要采访谁？

Who are talking to?

我们开始吧。

Let's do it.

我们坐下来，就在之前做一下准备。

Let's sit down, and we prep, like, right beforehand.

这样所有内容都还新鲜。

So then everything's fresh.

我以前会提前好几天准备，结果大部分准备的内容都忘了，那份问题清单我也几乎认不出来了。

Like, I used to prep days in advance, and then I would, like, forget most of what I had prepped and have the sheet of questions that I barely even recognize.

是的。

Yes.

和你的情况一样。

And the same thing as you.

我根本没法完成其中的90%。

I wouldn't get through, like, 90 of it.

我心想，花这么多功夫准备到底是为了什么？

I'm like, what was the point of, like, putting all that work in?

然后节目就会变得无聊枯燥，因为只是不停地问一个问题接一个问题。

And then the episode would be, like, boring and dry because it'd just be asking, like, question after question.

这是另一个让节目变得枯燥的原因。

Here's another reason why it gets dry.

我不知道你有没有发现同样的情况，但当我准备时，我会对对方谈论的主题变得足够熟悉，以至于我都可以当受访者了。

Did you I don't know if you found the same thing, but when I prepped, I basically became proficient enough in whatever they're talking about that, like, I could have been the interviewee.

如果有人问我那些问题，我都知道答案，这就完全失去了惊喜感，也失去了对他们所说内容真正的人性化兴趣。

Like, had someone asked me those questions, I knew the answers, which just takes all the surprise, all of the, like, true human interest in what they're saying.

所以我认为这也是我后来退后一步的另一个原因。

And so I think that was another reason why I've I've pulled back as well.

我们做的一件事是——当然，我们在这方面也做过一些调整——就是努力让内容更有趣一些，而其中一部分就是变得更加即兴。

One of the things that we do, I mean, and we've had to iterate on this a little bit is, you know, we're trying to lean into being a little bit more entertaining, and part of that is being a little bit more spontaneous.

你描述的情况是，当你邀请嘉宾时，你已经知道他们会怎么回答你即将提出的问题，这实际上就变成了表演。

And so what you're describing when you have someone on, you know the answer to the question that you're gonna ask is you basically step into acting.

是的。

Yes.

对吧？

Right?

你其实并不是演员，但你却在表演。

Now you're you're not actually an actor, but you are acting.

就像这样，是的。

And it's like yeah.

而且，即兴发挥中也有一种魔力。

There's a and there's also like a magic of spontaneity.

我的意思是，我们节目一开始的时候，已经不再提前分享我们要聊的内容了。

Like, I mean, at the beginning of our episodes, we've stopped sharing what we're gonna talk about.

比如，考特兰会说：我有个点子。

Like, Courtland will be like, I got something.

直接说说有什么事吧。

Just just say what's up.

就连在这个播客里，我也在想：我们已经开了五分钟了？

Well, even in this podcast, I was like, are we we're on five minutes in.

心想：看来我们是直播了。

Was like, I guess we're live.

我不确定。

I don't know.

是的。

Yeah.

我们

We're

直播中。

live.

欢迎。

Welcome.

是的。

Yeah.

我们在聊我们自己的事。

We're talking about our own shit.

马上轮到你。

We'll get to you.

对。

Yeah.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

我以前会搞一套，比如，嘿，嘉宾。

I used to do, like, a whole, like, hey, guest.

来吧。

Come on.

让我花五分钟给他们做个全面的介绍。

Let me, like, let me prep them for five minutes, give them a whole rundown.

事情会这样安排。

Here's how it's gonna be.

我们有个剪辑师。

We've got an editor.

她叫阿里。

Her name's Ari.

她会让你们的声音听起来很棒，等等。

She's gonna make you sound good, etcetera.

不。

No.

我不会说这些话。

I don't say any of that.

我们就直接进去。

We just, like, go in.

我觉得这样更好。

I think it's just better.

我同意。

I agree.

我同意。

I agree.

是的。

Yeah.

我们来聊聊你说过的那些内容吧，因为你发布了很多非常棒的播客节目。

Let's talk about some of the things you said, because you published, like, a lot of really cool podcast episodes.

你写了一些很酷的东西。

You've written some cool stuff.

你做过一期关于16Z的播客，标题是《为什么科技仍然重要》。

You did one, a podcast on a 16 z called why technology still matters.

我认为你采访了马克·安德森，他长期以来一直在强调这一点。

And I think you interviewed Marc Andreessen, who's been sort of beating this drum for a long time.

我认为他于2020年写了一篇名为‘建造或’的文章。

I think he wrote this essay in 2020 called, like, build or

什么的。

something.

他就只是说，来吧。

He's just like, come on.

没错。

Yep.

是的。

Yeah.

是时候行动了。

It's time to build.

让我们重新回到美国的初心吧。

Like, let's let's get back to, like, our roots as America.

我认为在媒体中出现了一个有趣的现象：比如，当我阅读关于初创公司、大型科技公司或硅谷的报道，尤其是在《纽约时报》这样的媒体上时，有90%的概率内容是负面的，或者至少是持怀疑态度的。

And I think this is an interesting phenomenon I've seen in media where, like, if I read about startups or big tech companies or Silicon Valley and something like the New York Times, for example, there's, like, a 90% chance it's gonna be negative or at the very least, like, skeptical.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而我所看到的关于科技的唯一乐观声音，都来自由科技从业者运营或科技公司拥有的媒体，比如独立黑客或a16z播客。

And the only optimism I see about tech is coming from media outlets run by people who are in tech or owned by tech companies like indie hackers or a16z podcast.

你觉得这是真的吗？

Do you think that's true?

你是不是也注意到同样的趋势？那你觉得为什么会这样呢？

Like, you see the same trend and, like so why do you think that

可能有些人会把那些积极为科技鼓吹的人描绘成利己主义者，他们会说：‘你拥有这些公司的股权，或者你本质上是从这个行业成功中获益的。’

Well, there are probably some folks who would paint the people who are propping tech up optimistically as, like, self serving, where they would say, oh, you you own, you know, equity in these companies, or, like, you you basically see upside from this industry succeeding.

但从我的角度来看——这在a16z以及我曾工作过的其他地方都是如此——我真心相信，我自己也是如此：那些在这个行业里已经取得足够成就的人，真正看到了这些技术如何为世界带来了更好的改变。

But from my perspective, and this is true of a16z and elsewhere that I've worked, I truly think, and I believe this about myself individually, that people in this industry who have built enough just truly see how these technologies have brought better things to the world.

最简单的类比可能是，有些人会说：‘生活没这么简单’，但事实上，今天在2023年，有谁愿意把自己的生活和1970年代的任何人交换呢？

And, like, the simplest kind of comparison that I think, you know, some people would be like, oh, life's not this simple, is just like, would anyone today in 2023 trade their lives for almost anyone living in like 1970?

答案是他们不会。

And the answer is they wouldn't.

当然，自那以后发生了许多变化。

And of course, lot has changed since then.

但真正发生变化的关键是技术。

But the key thing that has changed is technology.

这正是区分了像冰箱这样简单事物的原因；我最近还开玩笑说冷淋浴的趋势，因为我们所有人都喜欢的恒温热水淋浴其实并不存在多久，对吧？

That is what has differentiated anything as simple as like refrigeration to I joke about the cold shower trend recently because it's like the consistent warm hot shower that we all love didn't actually exist that long ago, right?

所以，我认为很容易把世界上不可避免存在的问题归咎于技术，或者说技术加剧了这些问题。

So I think it's really easy to apply problems that inevitably do exist in the world and say that they come from technology or they are exacerbated by technology.

但我个人完全不认同这种看法，哪怕是一点点都不认同。

But I personally just don't hold that few, even in the slightest.

我认为世界上有些事情是可以改善的，我也认为技术并不完美。

I think there's things that can be fixed in the world, and I don't think technology is perfect.

但根据我的经验，我不认为这是源于一种利己的动机，比如‘我们只是想赚更多钱’。

But I don't think, from my experience, that it comes from this self serving, hey, we just want to make more money perspective.

我确信有些人符合这种描述，但我认为这里存在一个深刻的误解。

I'm sure people fit that bill, but I think there's a pretty deep misunderstanding.

我认为这可能是需要被正视的问题——很多人并不了解技术。

And I think that maybe is something that should be addressed, that many people don't understand technology.

我认为世界上能编程的人不到1%。

I think it's like less than 1% of the world knows how to code.

很多人并不知道他们的电脑或手机是如何工作的。

A lot of people don't know how their computers work, how their phones work.

这听起来可能有点消极，但我并非本意如此；只是人们对这个话题，甚至对这些商业模式都缺乏基本了解。

And this maybe sounds really negative, and I don't mean it to, but just uneducated on the topic and even how these business models work, for example.

我认为人们很容易把美好的事物视为理所当然。

I think it's just easy to take good things for granted.

是的。

Yeah.

这是人性的一部分。

It's part of the human condition.

对吧？

Right?

就像我们总是把热水澡当成理所当然，每次去露营时，我都想：天啊。

It's like we take hot showers for like, every time we go camping, I'm like, oh, shit.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗？什么是令人惊叹的？

You know, what's amazing?

比如，一个温暖的淋浴。

Like, a warm shower.

那真是种福气。

That's a mate.

但当我一个人在公寓里待上好几个星期时，我并不会去感恩自己能享受热水澡。

But, like, when I'm sitting in my apartment for weeks at a time, I'm not, like, counting my blessings that I have warm showers.

我觉得这和所有科技都是一样的。

I think it's the same thing with, like, all technology.

对吧？

Right?

这感觉太好了，但我们就像生活在水里的鱼，却不知道水是什么。

It's, like, so good, but we're like the fish who lives in water and doesn't know what water is.

在某种程度上，我们只是对它太习以为常了。

To some degree, we're just so used to it.

但另一部分我则更加愤世嫉俗、甚至有点阴谋论：我觉得那些始终持强烈反科技态度的人，当然，科技确实存在问题。

But then there's another part of me that's, like, even more cynical and conspiratorial where it's, I think the people who are writing with, like, a such a strong anti tech vibe consistently I mean, obviously, there are problems from tech.

当然，有隐私问题，还有各种类似奥威尔式的状况，我们都想避免，也确实存在不平等等现实问题。

Obviously, there are privacy issues and all sorts of, like, other Orwellian, you know, situations that we wanna avoid and whatnot, and there's inequality that comes about as like, there's real issues.

但看到它如此负面，我前几天读了一篇博客文章。

But to see it be so negative like, I read a blog post other day.

我觉得是埃里克·托伦伯格写的。

Think Eric Torenberg wrote it.

那篇文章讲的是所谓的‘科技反感’神话。

It was about, like, the mythical the mythical techlash.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

你看看消费者对科技的态度，相比之下，无论是石油、媒体、教育还是其他行业，科技始终排在中游或接近顶端。

And you look at, like, consumer sentiment about tech, and it's, like, out of all the industries, whether it's oil or media or education or whatever, like, tech consistently ranks either the middle of the pack or near the top.

所以普通人其实还挺喜欢科技的。

And so it's like, the average person kinda likes it.

但你再看看媒体，全是负面、负面、负面、负面、负面、负面。

But then you look in the media, and it's like, negative, negative, negative, negative, negative, negative.

某种程度上，这些力量是相互竞争的。

And it's like, well, like, in a way, these energies are very competitive.

你知道，社交媒体和传统媒体，它们的盈利方式都一样：靠广告和吸引用户注意力。

You know, social media versus media, they all monetize the same way, advertising and attention from audiences.

我觉得这绝非巧合：与科技竞争最激烈的行业，恰恰也是对科技持一贯负面看法的行业。

And it doesn't strike me as coincidental that the industry that's, like, the most competitive with tech, you know, happens to have consistent negative opinions about tech.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你听说过厄普顿·辛克莱的那句名言吗？

Mean, have you heard of that have you heard that quote from Upton Sinclair?

他说：当一个人的收入依赖于他对某事的无知时，要让他理解这件事是很困难的。

He goes, it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

我认为还有一种动态是，科技历来都让人感到恐惧。

I think there's also a dynamic of, like, tech has historically been feared.

但恐惧和憎恨，或者试图摧毁某物，是不一样的。

But there is a difference between fear and hatred or, like, trying to take something down.

我认为确实存在一种情况：科技，尤其是过去二十年，自互联网规模扩大以来，已经成为世界上最大的产业之一。

And I do think there's a dynamic that tech, especially in the last two decades, really since the internet became sizable, is now one of the biggest industries in the world.

在我的职业生涯中，甚至在公司工作时，我都见过这种现象。

And I've seen this throughout my career, even working at companies.

当一个事物从边缘角色变成主导者时，人们就会产生一种非常人性化的反应：我不喜欢这样。

When something goes from being the underdog to the top dog, there is just a very human response to be like, I don't like this.

把它搞垮。

Bust that thing.

是的，是的，去他的吧。

Yeah, yeah, like, screw this.

我曾经支持的东西，现在我不再关心了。

This thing that I used to root for, I no longer care for.

所以我认为这里确实存在一种动态。

And so I think there is definitely a dynamic there.

而且再说一遍，想象一下，你不喜欢某样东西，但你也不明白它为什么有效。

And again, that married with the fact that imagine that you don't like something, but you also don't know why it works.

你不知道是什么让这个飞轮转得这么快，让这么多人赚到这么多钱。

You don't know what is getting this flywheel to spin so fast and make all these people so much money.

这就是为什么你会看到这些复杂的动态。

And that's why you also get these complex dynamics.

比如，那些说‘去他的杰夫·贝佐斯’的人，却正在用iPhone发推文，订阅了Prime，还都订了Netflix，对吧？

Like, the same people who are saying, like, screw Jeff Bezos are tweeting on their iPhone with Prime subscriptions, right, who all subscribe to Netflix.

我理解这些担忧。

I understand the concerns.

正如你所说，考特兰，有些事情需要考虑。

And like you said, Courtland, there are things to consider.

随着这些技术变得越来越强大，它们的影响也越来越大。

As these technologies get bigger, they are more impactful.

因此，过去可能不那么重要的事情，现在变得更为重要，因为它们触及了数十亿人。

Therefore, things that maybe didn't matter as much now do matter more because they're touching billions of people.

但这并不意味着技术就是坏的。

But that does not mean technology is bad.

坦白说，我仍然坚持这个观点：技术是一种工具。

And I still, quite frankly, stand by this idea that technology is a tool.

所以，即使它变得更加复杂，如果你把许多人对技术的这种看法应用到其他工具上，比如传统工具，那就不成立了。

And so even though it's more complex, if you were to apply the thinking that many people have to other tools, like traditional tools, it wouldn't stand.

我认为，是的，也许这也是教育发挥作用的地方。

And I think, yeah, maybe this is also where education comes into play.

因为即使你采取最悲观的观点，认为技术是坏的，这也无法完全解释一个事实：是的，技术依然在向前发展。

Because even if you take the truly pessimistic view that technology is bad, that still can't quite be squared with the fact that, yeah, technology progresses forward regardless.

因此，目前围绕人工智能产生的相同问题非常复杂，也提出了许多精彩的问题。

And so the same questions happening around AI right now are very complex, and there's a lot of great questions being asked.

但其中很多问题都是在一种框架下提出的，比如试图划定某种任意的停止线。

But a lot of them are being asked in the frame of, like, drawing some sort of arbitrary stop line.

我只是想说，我们把基因

I just And we put the gene

放进了其中。

in that.

是的，这种情况在历史上从未发生过。

Yeah, it just Like, that has never historically happened.

也许有些人将它的某些方面与核技术相比较。

Maybe some people are comparing elements of it to nuclear.

但我们解决最大问题的最好方法始终是技术。

But our best way to solve our biggest problems has always been technology.

而技术总会带来一些新的问题。

And that always creates some new problems.

但这些问题也总是通过技术来解决的。

But those are always also solved with technology.

我认为这实际上非常鼓舞人心，尤其是在a16z，因为我正在关注我们所讨论的趋势。

And I think it's actually really inspiring, especially at a16z, because I'm covering, you know, trends we're talking about.

再比如，某个小众的Reddit子版块，或者某个人能创办的、年入数百万美元的小企业。

Again, like, some tiny subreddit here or, like, some business that someone can start, you know, that makes a couple million dollars.

但在a16z，我能见证巨大的变革。

But at a16z, I get to see just massive change.

有些行业的情况很有趣。

And there are certain industries that it's funny.

你们还住在旧金山吗？

Do you guys still live in SF?

我住在西雅图，钱宁顿。

I'm in Seattle, Channington.

我住在纽约。

I'm in New York.

我看到这条推文，我在实地也注意到了，因为我现在也在旧金山，这是瑞安·彼得森发的，他说很多人都在抱怨自动驾驶汽车，总说要来了要来了，但就是迟迟不来。

I saw this tweet, which I've noticed on the ground because I'm now in SF as well, from Ryan Peterson, who were like, all these people were complaining that autonomous vehicles, like, they're coming, they're coming, they're never coming.

而现在它们真的出现了，因为已经上路了，人们却不再关心，也不再谈论了。

And now that they're here, because they're on the ground, people People don't care at aren't talking about it.

他们不再谈论这个，但这正是第二、第三层影响的例子。

They're not talking about, like but that's an example of, like, second, third order effects.

如果自动驾驶汽车真的上路了，网约车的运行模式就会发生变化。

If you do have autonomous vehicles on the ground, the dynamics of ride sharing change.

城市规划的格局也可能随之改变。

The dynamics of city design can change.

A

A

lot of

lot of

它们中的大多数，或者说我认为全部都是电动车或混合动力车。

them or actually, I think all of them are electric or hybrid.

所以科技是解决方案，对吧？

And so technology is the solution, right?

正如你所说，这不是把 genie 再放回瓶子里。

It's not, as you said, putting the genie back in the bottle.

我理解为什么有人会得出科技是坏的，或者某些形式的科技是坏的这种结论。

And I do understand how someone can get to the conclusion that technology is bad or some forms of technology are bad.

但即便如此，当人们把科技视为一个整体时，我觉得这真的很令人担忧，因为事实并非如此。

But even on that note, I think it's really concerning when people view technology as a monolith because it's Mhmm.

显然不是这样的。

Just so clearly not.

是的。

Yeah.

你做过一期关于学校不教的东西的节目，叫《AI辩论》，你持什么观点？

You did an episode on shit you don't learn in schools called the AI debate, where do you sit?

这让我想起了我最喜欢的一位作者。

And it reminds me of, like, one of my favorite authors.

尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利，嗯。

Yuval Noah Harari Mhmm.

我非常尊重他。

Who I respect immensely.

他写了《人类简史》，这本书在硅谷人士中非常流行。

He wrote the book Sapiens, which is, like, a very popular book among Silicon Valley types.

他说，我们对人工智能应实施的第一项监管措施是强制要求AI披露自己是人工智能。

He said the first regulation we should do for AI is to make it mandatory for AI to disclose that it is AI.

他对这个问题非常担忧，而且他并不是唯一一个这样的人。

He's, like, very freaked out about this, and he's not the only one.

有很多非常聪明的人，我认为他们在某种程度上也支持科技，但他们却强烈主张要把潘多拉的盒子重新关上。

There's a lot of, like, very intelligent people who I would say are also, like, pro tech to some degree, who are, like, very much in this, let's put the genie back in the bottle camp.

你对这个关于技术的问题怎么看？

What do you think about this particular issue of technology?

我的意思是，人工智能显然存在一些风险。

Like, I mean, there's obviously some dangers for AI.

对吧？

Right?

我现在正在写一个AI，用来帮我管理Indie Hackers论坛，判断哪些帖子是好的，哪些是坏的。

It's like, I'm writing AI right now to, like, help me moderate the Indie Hackers forum and figure out which posts are good versus which ones are bad.

但我完全可以轻松地开发一个AI，去发垃圾信息还不被发现。

But, like, I could very easily spin up, like, you know, an AI that spams people and doesn't get caught.

做这种事简直轻而易举。

It's, like, trivially easy to do this.

我认为把这股潮流压回去是不现实的。

I think it's unrealistic to put it back in the bottle.

很多我们现在觉得奇怪的东西，十年、二十年后都会变得司空见惯。

A lot of the things that we think are weird, ten, twenty years from now, will just be commonplace.

但我认为这几乎是必然的。

But I think it's almost guaranteed.

只要某样东西足够有用，它就会传播开来，从怪异变成主流。

If something is so useful that it spreads, that it goes from being weird to mainstream.

是的

Yeah.

就像在线约会一样。

Like online dating.

二十一世纪初，如果你在在线约会网站上，你会被认为很奇怪。

Early two thousands, if you're on an online dating website, you were weird.

那很古怪。

That was strange.

现在几乎每个人都有Tinder或Bumble账户。

Now pretty much everybody's got like a Tinder or a Bumble account every single one.

这成了认识人最普遍的方式，简直不可思议。

It's like the most common way to meet somebody and it's crazy.

甚至我上中学的时候，如果在网上和人聊天，都会被认为很奇怪。

Even when I was in middle school, if you were like online chatting with people, that was weird.

现在，很多著名的模特都有庞大的Instagram账号，花一半时间给人发私信。

Now, like, most like famous like models have like huge Instagram accounts and spend half their time DMing people.