马克·拉斯里 - 在信贷和体育中赚取财富 - [像最佳投资者一样投资，第371集]

你觉得，像你这样带着机构投资者的思维来操作，而不是单纯想着‘我在底特律，就想搞个本地球队’的人，是唯一一个，或者少数几个吗？

Does it feel like you are the only or one of the only people approaching this the way that you are with the institutional investor mindset versus just on the local I'm in Detroit.

我只是想在底特律拥有一支球队而已。

I want a Detroit team or something.

我觉得现在确实是这样。

I think today, yes.

但三年到五年内，肯定就不是了。

But I think within three to five years, absolutely not.

其实现在已经有好几家公司正打算做同样的事。

I mean, I think there's a number of firms out there that are getting started that wanna do the same thing.

说白了，你现在才刚踏入体育投资的起步阶段。

So I think you're literally in the first inning of investing in sports.

随着私募股权和更多机构资金涌入，你再想投那些骑公牛、帆船之类的项目，就没那么容易了。

I think as private equity comes in, as more institutional capital comes in, you're not gonna be able to do the bull riding.

想投帆船项目，也难了。

You're not gonna be able to do the sailing.

因为这个市场会变得高效得多，所以你得付出高得多的价格。

You're gonna be paying much higher pricing for this because it's gonna become a much more efficient market.

赌博在这个整个故事里扮演什么角色？

What role does gambling play in this entire story?

从我的角度看，赌博最大的好处是它能大幅提升人们对自己所押注内容的参与度。

So the great thing about gambling, at least from the way I look at it, is what gambling does is increase the engagement that people have with whatever they're gambling on.

我并不会因为人们去赌博而赚钱。

So I'm not gonna make money on the fact that people are gambling.

那部分钱早就被FanDuel、DraftKings这些平台拿走了。

That's gonna be FanDuel, DraftKings, or whoever people are doing it with.

他们已经垄断了这块市场。

They've already got that monopoly.

下注的人越多，看比赛的人就越多。

But the more people who bet on a particular game means there's more people watching that.

看比赛的人越多，我的收视率就越高。

The more people who watch that means my ratings go up.

我的收视率越高，拿到的媒体合约就越大。

The higher my ratings are, the higher media deal I'm gonna get.

所以我觉得这整个体系就是这么回事，核心问题是：怎么让你成为尼克斯队的球迷？

So I think it's just part of the ecosystem, And the whole thing in the ecosystem is how do I make you become a Knicks fan?

怎么让你成为雄鹿队的球迷？

How do I make you become a Bucks fan?

因为看的人越多，我赚的钱就越多。

Because the more people who watch, the higher I'm gonna get paid.

现在这个领域里，符合条件的交易规模到底有多大？

How big is the universe of eligible deals in this world right now today?

如果你那个漏斗真的存在，顶端那部分的总量，你觉得会是多少？

If you had your whatever funnel I'm picturing, some deal funnel at the top of that funnel, what do you think that number is?

我觉得有好几千亿美元。

I would say it's hundreds of billions of dollars.

我原本以为会小得多。

I would have thought it was a lot smaller.

自从我们开始做这件事以来，看到的交易和机会多得惊人，简直无处不在。

And as we've started doing this, the amount of deals and the amount of, I would say, opportunities we see is staggering because it's in everything.

这在房地产领域也一样。

It's on the real estate side.

我们是不是该在体育场附近建酒店？

It's on do we wanna build hotels near a stadium?

在体育馆附近呢？

Do we want near a arena?

要不要开餐厅？

Do we wanna build restaurants?

体育馆里的餐饮服务要不要做？

Do we wanna do food services in the arena?

我们到底在做什么？

What are we doing?

只要是跟体育相关的，我觉得都是巨大的机会。

And anything that's sports related, I think, is just massive opportunities.

再说让你暂时重新戴上信贷的帽子，这事现在变得特别有意思，因为机会成本真的高得吓人。

As for making you put your credit hat back on for just a second, it's gotten really interesting because now it seems like the opportunity costs are quite high.

你要是做信贷，稳稳当当拿个百分之几的回报并不难。

You could get whatever low double digits maybe in credit somewhat reliably.

那你怎么看待门槛收益率和预期回报？说到底，你对股权资本的回报率到底想达到什么水平？

How do you think about hurdle rates and expected returns, desired returns as the brass tax of what you want to earn on on your equity capital?

我觉得你得做两件事。

I think there's two things you're gonna be doing.

第一，你还是会做信贷，也就是借钱给别人。

One, you will be doing credit, so you'll lend people money.

这部分的利率大概在百分之十到十五之间。

On that, you're gonna be lending at 10 to 15%.

这跟我们目前在信贷业务上做的是一回事。

It'll be the same thing we're doing on the credit side.

而在股权这边，你得争取实现百分之十几到二十出头的回报。

On the equity side, you're gonna wanna be generating high teens to low twenties returns.

我觉得现在因为资本稀缺，做这件事其实挺容易的。

I think today, because of the lack of capital, you're gonna be able to do that pretty easily.

但随着越来越多资本涌入，这事就会变得越来越难。

But as more and more capital comes in, that's gonna get harder.

不过，任何资产类别都是这样。

But that's the same in any asset class.

你从大卫·邦德曼身上学到了什么？

What did you learn from David Bonderman?

大卫？

From David?

哦，我学到了很多。

Oh, I learned a lot.

在我看来，大卫是那种极其聪明又极其务实的罕见人物。

David was one of those rare individuals, in my opinion, that was exceptionally book smart and exceptionally street smart.

但大多数人往往只具备其中一种。

And, normally, people are one or the other.

大卫两者兼具，你在各种场合都能看到他解决问题有多快，同时他还能和每个人顺畅沟通。

And David was both, and you saw that in situations and how quickly he could figure things out, but also how he could communicate with everybody.

大家都特别喜欢他。

Everybody really liked him.

不管你是个分析师，想和大卫聊数据，他不仅能跟上你的节奏，还能比你更出色。

Whether if you were an analyst, you could talk numbers with David, and not only could he keep up with you, he'd be better than you.

但如果你只是想聊聊怎么把公司做大，市场方面该怎么做？

But if you just wanted to talk about how you're gonna grow a company, what are we gonna do on the marketing side?

这是我的想法。

Here's my vision.

你真的能和大卫交流，感觉能和他说到一块儿去，也能真正理解他的意思。

You could actually talk to David, and you thought you'd be able to communicate with him, and you'd understand things.

他是我在这行里第一个，我觉得既能做这两件事，还能做到顶尖水平的人。

He was one of the first people I ever worked for in this business that was able, in my opinion, to do both, and not only do both at a high level, but at the top.

你怎么形容巴斯家族的神奇之处？

How would you articulate the magic of the Bass family tree?

这感觉就像帕尔科斯的教练体系，但发生在投资界——有这么多出色的人才都出自这里，或者能追溯到这个体系，比如邦德曼、你、雷恩沃特，还有不少人。

It seems almost like the Parcells coaching tree or something like this, but in investing, like, so many interesting talented people seem to have emerged in it or from it or can draw lineage back to it, Bonderman, you, Rainwater, lots of others.

到底是什么让它如此特别？

What made it such a special thing?

我觉得，是因为三十五年前，我1988年去为他们工作的时候，他们直接给了我一亿五千万美元。

I think because thirty, thirty five years ago, when I went to work for them in 1988, they gave me a 150,000,000.

我当时是全球规模最大的困境资产基金。

I was the largest distressed fund in the world in the world.

之所以会有这么多人传承自他们，是因为当年全美大概只有四五户家族手握大量资本。

And the reason why you have this lineage from them is there were about four or five families back then who had a lot of capital.

所以在我看来，他们吸引了一大批顶尖人才，因为他们愿意给你资金，而那时候能提供资金的人少之又少。

So therefore, in my opinion, they attracted some of the smartest people because they would give you capital, and very few people back then had capital.

你想想，要是我管着一亿五千万美元，

I mean, imagine if I'm running a 150,000,000.

我还是当时最大的基金。

I'm the largest fund.

那时候大多数人管理的基金也就五千万到一亿美元左右。

Most people back then were running 50,000,000, a 100,000,000.

所以你可以去找巴斯家族，或者其他几个家族，他们扶持了很多人创业。

And so you could go to the Bass family, you could go to a number of other families, and they put a lot of people in business.

正因如此，我觉得这也是他们表现特别出色的原因之一。

And because of that, I think that was one of the reasons why they did exceptionally well.

如果你回顾一下不良资产投资这个领域的发展脉络，你当时就是最大的基金。

If you think about the what I'll call, like, the chapter headings of the story of distressed as a style, you were the, you know, biggest fund back then.

现在这个资产类别已经大得多得多。

Now it's a much, much bigger asset class.

你现在也是其中的巨头之一。

You're one of the big ones.

你会怎么把这段历史分成几个阶段呢？

How would you chunk that up into chapters?

回想那段时光，不良资产投资的发展有哪些关键阶段？

Just thinking back that whole time, what have been the chapters of distressed investing?

那时候，你得懂法律，也得懂财务，因为破产案特别复杂，通常要拖三到六年。

Well, I think back then, you needed to understand law and you needed to understand numbers because bankruptcies were extremely complicated, and bankruptcies would take anywhere between three to six years.

而且优先级非常明确，你得不断跟人争抢。

And it was a strict priority, so you were constantly fighting.

后来破产法改了，偏向保护债权人，而不是债务人。

And then the bankruptcy laws were changed, and they were changed to make it better for creditors as opposed to debtors.

这一改动让破产程序不再需要五六年那么久。

And that one change ended up making bankruptcies instead of being five or six years.

现在一般十八到二十四个月就能走完。

You now would have an eighteen month to twenty four month bankruptcy.

流程变顺畅了，虽然不同资产类别和利益方之间还是有争斗，但时间上压缩得厉害。

Things became more streamlined, and you ended up I think now you've still got a lot of fighting among different asset classes and different groups, but the timing element has all gotten condensed.

我觉得这是最大的变化。

I think that's been a big change.

另外，资金多了，现在值得大家去拼了。

Also, the increase in capital has made it worth it for people now to fight.

以前呢，因为债务人有时间这个筹码，所以很多事都是通过协商解决的。

Whereas back then, because time was an asset that the debtor had, you actually settled a lot more.

即使对方在清偿顺序上排在你后面，也能拖你两年不放。

And even though somebody may have been junior to you, they could hold you up for two years.

所以花时间把事情谈妥是值得的。

So it was worth it to work it out.

但现在就不一样了。

Today, it's not.

所以现在打官司的多了，对抗也更激烈了。

And so you're litigating more, you're fighting more.

事情变得越来越难了。

It's gotten harder.

如果现在逼你去评估新成立的信贷公司，你觉得最关键要看哪些因素？

If I was forcing you to be in the business today of backing new credit firms, what would be the variables that you would care most about in evaluating those new firms?

他们当然得在信贷评估方面非常出色。

They've got to be really good obviously on the credit side.

他们在重组方面也得非常出色，这样一旦出问题，你才能应对得来。

They've got to actually also be very good on the restructuring side, so that if there's an issue, you can deal with it.

我要跟你说，规模不能太小。

And I would say to you, can't be small.

你得足够大。

You've gotta be large.

以前呢，人们会说，你看——

Back then, people go, well, look.

我规模小。

I'm small.

但我灵活。

I'm nimble.

我反应快。

I'm quick.

我能搞定这些。

I can do this.

我能做到。

I can do that.

现在，灵活迅速根本不算什么。

Today, nimble quick means nothing.

我随时能让你那点灵活迅速彻底失效。

I could destroy your true nimble quick.

你得够大。

You need to be large.

这才是关键区别。

That's the big difference.

在九十年代和克林顿共事时，你印象最深的搞笑事是什么？

What's the funniest story that you can remember from your time with the Clintons in the nineties?

天哪。

Oh my god.

我觉得最难忘的是，我陪着克林顿总统在达沃斯见了普京。

I think it's I got to meet Putin with President Clinton, and it was at Davos.

我还得去见这些人。

And I've got to meet all these people.

每次去开会，克林顿总统都会把我介绍成他的经济顾问。

And I went we're going meeting, and President Clinton would always introduce me as his economic adviser.

他正跟普京见面，然后我走过去，打个招呼什么的。

He's meeting with Putin, and then I come over, and I'm saying hello and so on.

我就问了克林顿总统。

And I asked President Clinton.

我模仿他的声音特别像。

I can do his voice really well.

来一个。

Do it.

好。

Alright.

于是我跟他说：‘总统先生，我们能合张影吗？’

So I said to him, sir, is there any way we can get a picture?

我觉得我再也不会见到他了。

I don't think I'll ever meet again.

总统说：

And President goes,

当然了。

oh, absolutely.

弗拉基米尔，你过来一下。

Vladimir, you come over here now.

弗拉基米尔，我们拍张照吧。

Vladimir, we're gonna take a picture.

这样可以吗？

Is that all right?

普京说：再拍一张。

And Putin goes, new picture.

再拍一张。

New picture.

克林顿毫不犹豫地回答：好啊。

And Clinton, without missing a beat, goes, alright.

咱们赶紧吧。

Let's hurry up now.

最让我觉得有意思的是，那些从来没人敢拒绝的人，真的不在乎。

Just it's fascinating to me how people who nobody says no to Yeah.

他们真的不在乎。

They don't really care.

是的。

Yeah.

他们真的不在乎。

They don't really care.

关键是，我们拍这张照片跟普京在一起，只是因为我想要一张合影，而克林顿总统当时也说：没错。

And the fact that, you we're taking this picture with Putin just because I wanna have a picture, and president Clinton is I was like, yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

我们就这样办。

We'll do that.

你刚见了一个人，我就不说我们具体在哪个国家了。

You just got to meet I won't say which country we're in.

我们在中东的一个国家，当时克林顿总统说——

We're in a country in The Middle East, and president Clinton goes,

你看到那边那盏灯了吗？

you see that lamp over there?

我说：是的，长官。

I go, yes, sir.

他说：我讨厌那盏灯。

He goes, I hate that lamp.

我觉得那是我见过最丑的灯了。

I think it's one of the ugliest lamps I've ever seen.

我当时就想：好吧。

I was like, okay.

我觉得还行。

Seems okay to me.

不对，马克。

No, Marc.

我跟你说啊

I'm telling you

真的很难看。

it's ugly.

我说，好吧。

I said, okay.

我们走了。

We leave.

我们去开会。

We go to the meeting.

我看着他。

I look at him.

我当时就想，你干嘛这么在意那盏灯？

I'm like, what what do you care about the lamp for?

他说，哦，我就想看看他们是不是把什么都录下来了。

He goes, oh, I just wanna see if they record everything.

然后我们回来，那盏灯，对，就在那儿。

And then we come back and the lamp Right.

所以呢，他一直都很爱这个游戏。

Is So it's just like always he's he loved The game.

是的。

Yeah.

他真的很爱这个游戏。

He loved the game.

他也很喜欢跟每个人见面。

He loved meeting everybody.

和他在一起总是特别有意思。

It was always just fascinating being with him.

我特别喜欢。

I loved it.

我觉得，一个不是出生在这个国家的人，能跟一位前美国总统在一起，到处旅行、做这么多事，这太不可思议了。

I thought for somebody who wasn't born in this country, the fact that I could be with someone who was the ex president of The United States and travel and do all these things.

对我来说，我就是特别喜欢。

For me, I just loved it.

我特别喜欢认识各种人。

I loved meeting people.

我特别喜欢向他学习。

I loved learning from him.

他会给我们讲历史。

He would explain history.

他真是个聪明人。

He's a brilliant guy.

所以那段日子特别有意思。

So it was fun.

特别有意思。

It was a lot of fun.

你的兴趣和经历真是丰富多彩。

You've had such a varied set of interests and past and things you've done.

你对这些事都显得特别积极乐观。

You seem very positive and cheery about them all.

在你感兴趣的事情里，有没有什么共同的主线？

What is the through line of the things that tend to get your interest the most?

它们之间有什么共同点吗？

What do they all share in common, if anything?

我觉得其中一部分原因是我一直特别好奇。

I think part of it, I'm always super curious.

我就想不断学习。

I just wanna learn.

小时候，家里经济不宽裕，但妈妈带我去过一次书展。

And I think part of that, when I was a kid, my mother, we went we didn't really have much money, so we had gone to a book fair.

我妈妈买了《富兰克林与瓦格纳百科全书》，那套世界百科全书，还跟我说：你得一年内从头到尾读完。

And my mother bought funk and wagnalls encyclopedia, the world encyclopedias, and said, you've need to read this, the whole thing from beginning to end in one year.

你确实记住了好多看似没用的知识。

And you learned a ton of useless information.

但突然间，你开始了解这个世界了。

But it's like all of a sudden you're learning about the world.

你接触到各种各样的事物，不同的物种。

You're learning about different things, different species.

我觉得特别着迷。

And I found it fascinating.

所以我相信，生活中我们都看得出来。

And so what I love is I actually think in life and we all see this.

人要么天生乐观，要么天生悲观。

People either have the happy gene or they have the miserable gene.

不管世界发生什么，总有人觉得一切都糟透了，也有人觉得一切都很好。

No matter what happens in the world there, everything's bad or everything's good.

在我看来，一切都很好。

To me, everything's good.

全是积极的一面。

It's all positive.

我就是喜欢不断学习，结识有趣的人，置身于有意思的场景中，动脑筋思考，同时始终向别人汲取经验。

I just wanna keep learning and meeting interesting people and being in interesting situations, using my mind, but trying to always learn from somebody.

所以我特别期待去新地方，总想多学点东西。

And so I'm always excited to be in new places and try to learn.

我很想听听你在创办一家大型投资公司过程中，遇到过哪些权衡取舍。

I'd love to hear a little bit about what you learned of the various trade offs building a big investing firm.

我想从很多角度了解一下，比如是更关注回报和交易，还是更关注资产。

And I'm curious in lots of dimensions here, like the difference between focus on returns and deals versus assets.

有时候这两者是一致的，有时候却并不一致。

Sometimes they go together, sometimes not.

还有就是，随着公司发展，你一路遇到过哪些取舍，为什么最终做出了那些选择。

And just the trade offs that you felt coming up against as you built the business over time and why you made the choices that you made.

这真是个好问题。

You know, it's a great question.

我觉得，对我们所有人来说，现在回头看，这些其实都是企业。

I think when you're going through it for all of us today, these are businesses.

确实如此。

They really are.

如果我早知道现在这些道理，可能当初会做出不一样的选择。

And if I had known what I know today, I probably would have done things differently.

但那时候刚起步、在扩张阶段，你心里想的全是回报。

It's just back then when you're getting started and you're growing, your focus is really on returns.

根本不是在建一家公司。

It's not on building a firm.

你只想怎么让人赚到钱。

It's how do I make someone money?

你所有的注意力都集中在这一点上。

And you're just very, very focused on that.

我觉得2012年的时候，我们管理的资产大约是两千五百亿美元，但当时没看到多少困境投资的机会。

I think in 2012, we were running about 25,000,000,000, and I didn't see a lot of distress opportunities.

所以我最终把超过一千二百亿美元返还给了投资者。

So I ended up returning 12 plus billion to investors.

我这么做的原因是，我想了想，

And the reason I did is I said, look.

在困境资产这边，我们确实没看到太多机会。

We're not seeing as much on the stress side.

我们觉得两三年后机会会回来，所以决定先把这笔资金退回去。

We think it'll come back in two or three years, so we're gonna return this capital.

我们会卖掉一些资产，然后两三年后再回来找你们募资。

We're gonna sell things, and then we'll come back to you in two or three years to raise money.

我只是把时间估计错了十年。

I was only off by ten years.

对吧？

Right?

那现在你会这么做吗？

Now, would you do that today?

你会把一千二百亿美元退给投资者，然后直接缩小公司规模吗？

Would you return 12,000,000,000 of capital and just shrink your firm?

从商业角度来说，你不会这么做的。

As a business, you wouldn't do that.

那时候，我们的想法很简单：不。

Back then, focus was, no.

我只想尽力把回报做出来。

I'm just all I wanna do is try to make return.

你已经看到有些人走了两条不同的路：有的扩张公司、努力创造回报，而他们用的方法之一就是加杠杆。

I think you've seen people go down both roads where they've ended up growing their firms and trying to generate returns, and part of the ways they've done that is use more leverage.

对我们来说，一直以来都是想用杠杆来做事情。

I think for us, we were always trying to do things on an levered basis.

我当时手头有大量资金。

I had a lot of my capital here.

回头来看，我们是不是应该把公司规模搞得更大一点？

In retrospect, should we have tried to grow the firm more?

大概是吧。

Probably.

对我们来说，这样也挺好。

I think for us, it's fine.

我们现在管理的资金大约是1.213万亿美元。

We're running about $1,213,000,000,000.

我觉得我们一直专注于回报，就这么做的。

I think we've done it where we were just focused on returns.

但我要说的最大问题是我们太专注于做信贷业务了。

But the biggest problem I would tell you is we were very focused on we were a credit shop.

我们主要做的是困境资产。

We were distressed.

所以大概十年里，这类机会都不多。

So there wasn't a lot of that for about ten years.

现在有了。

There is now.

所以我们当时募集的基金规模较小，因为可投资的机会不多，也没涉足其他领域。

So we were raising smaller funds because there was less to invest, and we didn't go into other things.

我们当时该做直接放贷吗？

Should we have done direct lending?

应该做。

Yes.

我们当时该做私募股权吗？

Should we have done private equity?

应该做。

Yes.

其实我们本该做的还有很多。

There's a lot of things we should have done.

是的。

Yeah.

当时你大概看了看，说，对，但这属于规模型业务。

At the time, you sort of looked at it and said, yeah, but that's a scale business.

我不想把精力放在这上面。

I don't wanna focus on that.

我想去争取更高的回报。

I wanna try to generate higher returns.

我们做得确实不错，但与此同时，我们可能本该把其他业务也做大的。

We've done really well, but at the same time, we probably should have grown those other businesses.

借着这位朋友给大家拍照片的由头，聊聊在这种公司里怎么搞团队建设和企业文化吧。毕竟你们的产品就是拿钱进来，再吐出更多的钱。

In the spirit of the period guy taking everyone's picture, say a little bit about team building and culture building in a firm like this, where the product is taking money and giving back more money?

我在这件事上花的心思是一样的。

I take the same amount doing

在生活里，还有在雄鹿队那边，情况也差不多。

life and with the Bucks.

在你们公司和团队里，最大的问题就是：到底是招有本事的人，还是招那些懂得团队合作的人？

The biggest question you have at your firm and with a team is, do you hire talent, or do you hire people who are team players?

所以我们可能会雇一个特别能赚钱的人，但这样一来，他可能不太会合作，反而给公司带来不少麻烦。

So here, we can hire somebody who's a huge moneymaker, but by doing that, maybe they're not the best team player and causes huge issues within a firm.

所以真正该做的，是找那些愿意合作的人，就像雄鹿队那样，既要合作，还得能拿冠军。

So what you really wanna do is you wanna have team players and still, if you're the Bucks, team players who are gonna win a championship.

在这里，我们需要的是那些能带来良好回报的合作者。

Here, you wanna have team players who are gonna generate good returns.

我觉得这挺难的。

And I think it's hard.

确实很难。

I mean, it is.

有时候，直接雇个有才华的人，然后让大家自己去适应，反而简单多了。

It's a lot easier sometimes to just hire talent and tell everybody deal with it.

对我们公司来说，我们一直坚持，只要氛围是融洽的，大家就必须能相处，要能一起工作。

I think for us at the firm, we've always made sure that if it's collegial, that we've gotta get along, that we work together.

所以我们公司的资深员工都待了很久。

So we've got a lot of tenure with the senior folks.

如果有人制造麻烦，那就走人。

If somebody creates issues, they're gone.

我总是对那些养老基金的人感到惊讶，他们说：‘我们注意到你们人员流动挺大。’

I always marvel at pension plans and folks who say, well, we see that you've had some turnover.

然后你就说：‘没错。’

And you're like, yes.

人员流动的原因，有时候是因为解雇了表现不佳的人，有时候是因为解雇了难相处的人。

The reason you have turnover is sometimes you fire people who are not good, or sometimes you fire people who are difficult.

然后别人会说：‘对啊。’

And somebody will go, yes.

但你们人员流动确实挺大。

But you've had turnover.

我会说：‘没错。’

I go, right.

所以有时候，我们确实会解雇那些表现不好的人。

So sometimes you fire people who are not good.

有时候，你会开除那些难搞的人。

Sometimes you fire people who are difficult.

结果第二天，他们就说：我们注意到你们人员有变动。

And then next day, they'll go, so we saw you had turnover.

你只能回一句：好吧。

You're like, okay.

我实在没办法了。

I give up.

以前雄鹿队的情况也是这样。

It was the same thing with, I would say, the Bucks.

大家最关心的问题是：我们该不该追求明星球员？

The biggest question was, do we go for talent?

你可以看到，有些球队选择这条路，或者你选择慢慢打造团队？

And you can see that certain teams have tried to do that, or do you build a team?

在体育界，总得有个人是头号核心。

In sports, somebody's gotta be the number one option.

总得有个人是二号人选。

Somebody's gotta be the number two option.

总得有个人是三号人选。

Somebody's number three.

不可能让四个人都想要当第一主力。

You can't have four people who wanna be the number one option.

投资上也是差不多的道理。

It's sort of same thing in investing.

不可能让四个人都来做决策。

You can't have four people who are deciding what to do.

可以有一个人拍板，其他人提建议，但最终必须有个人来做决定。

You can have one person who decides what to do, and there's a team and people recommend, but ultimately somebody's got to decide that.

得有个资深投资经理，或者资产规模大的时候可以有两个。

There's got to be a senior portfolio manager, or you can have two where if you're running a lot more in assets.

但对我们来说，我们更倾向于团队协作。

But I think for us, we've tried to be more of a team.

如果你觉得没把收购雄鹿队这笔投资算作你一生中最难忘的投资，能讲讲这个故事吗？

If you think not including the Bucks of the most memorable investment you ever made end to end, can you tell that story?

对我们来说，TXU就是这样的一个投资案例，我们一开始以40.5美分的价格买入债券，做了大量研究。

For us, TXU was one of those investments where we started buying the bonds at $40.50 cents, did a tremendous amount of work.

后来这笔投资成了公司的一大重仓。

It became a huge position for the firm.

我们买了相当多的份额。

We bought a tremendous amount of it.

价格一路涨到了1.10美元。

It went all the way up to the $1.10.

当时有个问题我们没当回事，其实应该在1.10美元时就卖出，可我们还等着涨到1.15美元。

And there was one issue that we didn't think was an issue, and we should have sold at $1.10, and we were holding out for $1.15.

后来法院出了裁决，债券价格立刻从1.10美元暴跌到50.6美分。

And decision came down in the courts, and bonds went down from $1.10 to $50.60 cent.

从这件事我学到了一点：别总想着赚到最后一分钱。

And I learned a lot from that, which was trying not to always get the last dollar.

我们的判断本身没错，但到最后，我们竟然变成了套利公司，而这根本不是我们的风格。

Our thesis was right in what we were doing, And then what ended up happening towards the end is we became an arbitrage firm, and that's not who we are.

从这件事里，我学到了很多。

I think on that, you learn quite a bit from that.

2008年那会儿，我也学到了不少东西。

You learn quite a bit in 2008.

2008年真是个绝佳的时机，让你学会怎么应对压力，怎么面对下跌，怎么真正理解市场。

I think 2008 was a great year to learn how to deal with stress, how to deal with things going down, how to understand.

我们当时在买福特银行的债务。

We were buying Ford Bank debt.

一开始以八毛、九毛的价格入手，结果一路跌到三美分。

We'd start buying it at 80, 90, and it went all the way down for 30¢.

我们一路跌一路买，从没停过。

And we kept buying it all the way down.

那时候，人人都说，对啊，没错。

And part of that, everybody goes, oh, yeah.

你知道吗，事情跌了的时候，反而要加码。

You know, when things go down, double down.

这说起来容易，做起来没那么简单。

It's not that easy.

难就难在，市场一直在告诉你，你完全错了。

The reason it's not easy is the market's telling you you're totally wrong.

记住，你买一样东西的时候，总有人在卖给你。

Remember, when you're buying something, somebody's selling it.

那个卖的人，觉得这东西还会继续跌。

The person who's selling it thinks it's gone lower.

当时价格一路下跌，我们不断做研究，就是为了确认：这个资产的价值到底是不是真的这么低。

As things were going down, the amount of work we kept doing to try to make sure that we were right is the value of that asset correct.

这让我学到了很多。

That taught me quite a bit.

你得不断重新审视自己的判断，试着换一个角度去看问题。

You had to always refresh what you were thinking and try to look at it in a different way.

赚钱没那么容易，但这是一个过程。

It's not easy making money, but it's a process.

我觉得随着时间推移，你会慢慢学会避开很多错误。

And I think as time goes on, you actually learn how to avoid a lot of mistakes.

你觉得在管理巨额资金时，尤其是为那些大型机构管理数十亿美元时，建立与出资方的关系，最重要的是什么？

What do you think are the most important things about building relationships with capital, with the people that give you the money to manage, especially at the multibillion dollar scale for the big firms out there?

关于这部分业务，你学到了哪些经验？

What have you learned about that whole part of the business?

关键在于信任。

It's very much about trust.

你要不断告诉那些把大笔资金交给你的人，你认为什么好、什么不好，犯了错或投资失误时，也要坦诚承认。

It's about you constantly telling people who have a lot of capital with you what you think is good, what you think is bad, admitting mistakes when you've done something wrong or you've made a bad investment.

我觉得这样会逐渐建立起一种非常牢固的关系。

I think it becomes really a very strong relationship that you're developing and you're building.

要想持续获得更多的资金，人们必须信任你。

And to keep on getting more capital, people have to trust you.

大家都知道你很聪明。

People know you're smart.

每个人都很聪明。

Everyone's smart.

人人都很聪明。

Everybody's smart.

但事实不是这样。

It's not.

我总是会想，天哪。

I always love, oh, no.

他真的特别聪明。

He's really smart.

真是让人惊讶。

Oh, shocking.

哦，那咱们把钱给那个笨人吧。

Oh, let's go give money to the dumb guy.

没人会这么做。

Nobody does that.

我从来没听过投资者说：我需要那个笨人。

I've never heard investors go, I need the dumb guy.

就是这个人。

That's the guy.

就是我选的人。

That's my guy.

你见过这种情况吗？

Have you ever seen that?

没有。

No.

每个人都很聪明。

Everybody's smart.

那到底是什么让它们不一样呢？

So what separates it?

靠的是信任。

It is trust.

关键在于你向投资者解释事情的方式。

It's the fact that you're explaining things to investors.

当你犯了错，就坦率地说：

And when you've made a mistake, say, look.

我们原本以为会是这样。

We thought this was gonna be what it is.

结果不是。

It wasn't.

如果别人信任你，他们就会继续给你更多资金，因为他们相信你做的事。

And if people trust you, they give you more capital because they believe in what you're doing.

所以我觉得，这就是为什么有些公司能快速成长，而其他公司却进展缓慢。

So I think that's why you've seen certain firms really grow and others not grow as much.

你的经历挺特别的，因为你和你妹妹一起创办了这家公司。

You have a really interesting story in the sense that you started the business with your sister.

你和你的孩子一起工作。

You work with your kids.

你和他们一起做投资，也代表他们做投资。

You've made investments with them and on their behalf.

我觉得雄鹿队的经历里有很多和家人共事的成分，这既美好，也可能充满挑战。

I think the Bucks included lots of working with family, which can be beautiful, can be fraught.

你在和家人合作方面，有什么心得吗？

What have you learned about doing that well?

因为看起来你们在这方面做得非常成功。

Because it seems like it's worked very well for you.

我的合伙人是我妹妹。

My partner is my sister.

我不确定这种模式是否适合每个人。

I don't know if that works for everybody.

但对我们来说，效果非常好。

For us, it works extremely well.

我和索尼亚一起创办了这家公司，彼此之间有着深厚的信任。

Sonia and I started this together, and there's just a huge amount of trust.

而且我们的专长不同，所以从不觉得是在互相竞争。

And, also, we have different skill sets, so we don't feel like we're competing against each other.

我觉得和兄弟姐妹合伙，关键就在于相信对方能把擅长的事做好，对方也相信你一样能做好自己的部分，而不是总盯着对方的一举一动。

And I think when you're partners with a sibling, it's very much about trusting them to do what they do really well and them trusting you to do what you do really well and not constantly looking over your shoulder.

和索尼亚合作，我们把公司事务做了明确分工，她在自己的领域简直无可挑剔。

And I think with Sonia, we split up the firm in different ways, and she's phenomenal what she does.

事实证明，这样的合作非常成功。

And it's actually worked out very well.

但我觉得，这背后离不开我们之间亲密的关系。

But I think part of that is you've got to have a pretty close relationship.

我们小时候一直住同一个房间，直到上大学才分开。

We shared a room till we both went to college.

但那并不是因为我们自己想这样。

I don't think it's because we wanted to.

我其实没多想和姐妹住一个房间，但你没办法，只能这样。

I don't think I was dying to share a room with my sisters, but you do.

结果要么彼此特别信任、特别合得来，要么就彻底闹掰。

And you either end up really trusting, liking each other, or it goes the other way.

因为一起经历太多摩擦，根本不想再和对方多待一分钟。

You just don't ever want to spend time with each other because of all the difficulties you've gone through.

我女儿在这儿工作，她来这儿的原因——我知道我有点偏心，但她真的很有才华。

My daughter works here, but the reason she works here is I think she's I know I'm biased, but I think she's really talented.

我们还在雄鹿队的时候，我儿子也在这儿干过，他表现得非常出色。

My son worked for us when we were with the Bucks, and I think he did a phenomenal job.

现在他在商务部工作。

He now works in the Commerce Department.

和自己的孩子一起工作，真的挺难的。

I think it's hard working with your kids.

和任何家人共事都不容易，关键在于有没有那份信任，有，就能成；没有，就成不了。

I think it's hard working with any family member, but you either are able to and there's a level of trust or you're not.

你去问别人对你的看法，大家总会提到一点：在那些取得财务成功的人里，你可能是最快乐的，至少从你的为人处世上来看，确实是这样。

When you ask around about you, a common thing you hear over and over is that for the category of people that have achieved the level of financial success, you're amongst the happiest, or if not the happiest, just by the way you are.

你之前说过，人天生要么乐观，要么悲观。

And you said earlier that people are wired optimistic or pessimistic.

真有那么简单吗？

Is it that simple?

你觉得真的就这么简单？

Do you think it's just that easy?

但就算是乐观的人，财务成功了，也可能带来一些意想不到的麻烦。

Because even for optimists, it seems like with lots of financial success can come lots of other maybe problems that aren't expected.

对你来说，这一切一直都顺顺利利的吗？

Has it always felt easy to you?

没有。

No.

并不是说这很容易。

It's not that it's easy.

你有没有特意做过什么？

Anything intentional you've done?

我觉得我中了彩票。

I think I won the lottery.

有人中彩票，这事儿挺常见的。

People win the lottery.

头一天，他们高兴得不得了。

The first day, they're so excited.

可后来你就会听说，有人想跟你做朋友，纯粹是因为你有钱。

And then you start hearing about, ugh, the only reason somebody wants to be my friend is because I have money.

有人想跟你合作，也只是因为你能帮上忙。

The only reason somebody wants to do this is they want me to help them.

他们就是想让你帮这个忙。

They want me to do this.

我每次都会回到原点，我不过是中了彩票。

I always just go back, I won the lottery.

你更愿意选择哪种？

What would you rather do?

是不想中彩票，还是想中彩票？

Not win the lottery or win the lottery?

这其实正是我感到开心的原因。

And that's actually why I'm happy.

我总是回想起自己中了彩票这件事。

I always think back to the fact I won the lottery.

没错，中彩票让事情变得复杂了。

And, yes, it's complicated by winning the lottery.

成功确实会让生活变得复杂。

Yes, it's complicated by having success.

我总想告诉别人，你其实有选择。

And I always try to say to people, you've got a choice.

你可以选择中彩票，也可以选择不中。

You can either win the lottery or not win.

如果你赢了，就会有别的麻烦。

And if you win, you're gonna have other issues.

但如果你没赢，也照样有别的烦恼。

But if you don't win the lottery, you also have other issues.

那你想选哪一个呢？

So which one do you want?

我觉得人们往往忘了，成功背后要付出多少努力，反而只盯着成功的负面，看不见正面。

And I think what ends up happening is people forget of how hard you work to try to achieve success, and then they start focusing on the negatives of that success as opposed to the positives.

我当初创办这个基金的时候，环境特别艰难，但后来我们发展起来了。

To me, I started a fund at a time that it was really hard, but then we grew.

我很幸运，实现了指数级增长，对此我一直心怀感激。

And I was lucky enough to grow exponentially, and I'm always thankful for that.

人一旦成功，心里就容易冒出各种猜疑，总担心别人是不是另有所图。

I think people have too many demons when they do well and are so worried of what is somebody's ulterior motive.

对我来说，我根本不在乎你心里怎么想。

To me, it's like, I don't really worry about your motive.

我很开心。

I'm happy.

我就处在这样的境地。

I'm in that situation.

没错。

Yes.

我明白，有时候人们想和我交朋友，是因为我拥有那支篮球队。

I get it that at times people wanted to be friends because I owned the basketball team.

总比另一种情况好。

Better than the alternative.

对。

Right.

不是的。

No.

但正因如此。

But that's exactly it.

但人们总说，哎呀，这太复杂了。

But people go, oh, it's so complicated.

其实没那么复杂。

It's not that complicated.

你拥有一支篮球队。

You own a basketball team.

我们赢了冠军。

Well, we won the championship.

拜登总统给我打了电话。

President Biden called me.

奥巴马总统也给我打了电话。

President Obama called me.

克林顿总统专门来电祝贺。

President Clinton called to congratulate.

我觉得这真的挺了不起的。

I thought that was really cool.

我的意思是，我还去了白宫。

I mean, I got to go to the White House.

我们在白宫受到了表彰，还带上了所有队员。

We got honored at the White House, and we brought all the players.

我觉得这是一次特别的经历。

I thought that was a unique experience.

每天想到自己中了彩票，我都特别激动。

I get excited about the fact, every day, I won the lottery.

在那次夺冠过程中，你印象最深的是哪个时刻？

What was your favorite moment associated with that championship run?

挑一个具体的时刻说说吧。

Good to pick a moment.

我知道，最难忘的就是举起奖杯的那一刻。

I know it was lifting the trophy.

说起来还挺有意思的。

It's actually funny.

赛前，NBA会带你走一遍流程，说：‘如果赢了，奖杯就在这儿。’

Beforehand, The NBA takes you through and says, okay, if you win, the trophy is here.

你要把它举起来，他们会告诉你具体怎么操作。

You're gonna lift it up, and here's how we're gonna do it.

我当时就想，行吧。

I'm like, okay.

挺好的。

Great.

我都不知道这奖杯到底多重。

I don't know how heavy is it.

我能先试着举一下吗？就当是试一试。

Do you mind if I just This little test drive.

他们说：‘不行。’

And they go, no.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

你不能碰，不然会留下指纹，摄像机拍到就不好了。

You can't touch it because then you're gonna get your fingerprints on it and the camera, we don't wanna see fingerprints.

你要现场操作。

You're gonna do this live.

我就问，这东西到底多重啊？

And I'm like, okay, how heavy is it?

他们说，别担心这个。

And they're like, well, don't worry about it.

不，不，这是全国直播呢。

Like, no, no, it's on national TV.

所以你赢了。

And so, you win.

你走出去的时候，全家都在那儿，大家都特别激动，因为突然之间你意识到，你真的要赢了。

You go out there, and my whole family's there, and we're so excited because all of a sudden you realize you're gonna win.

接着就是颁奖仪式，你出场了。

And you've got the championship ceremony, and you go out.

我开始慢慢举起奖杯，完全不知道它有多重。

And I start lifting the trophy really slowly because I have no idea how heavy it is.

最后我才反应过来，行了。

And finally, I'm realizing, okay.

对。

Yeah.

我能行。

I can take it.

我能把它举过头顶。

I can put it over my head.

绝对不能让奖杯掉下来，那可就糟了。

Because last thing you ever wanna do is drop it.

没错。

Yes.

要是全国直播时摔了怎么办。

Drop national TV.

你瞧他。

Oh, look at him.

他把奖杯摔了。

He dropped the trophy.

我不明白人们是怎么弄到我电话号码的。

I don't know how people got my phone number.

我是认真的。

I'm being serious.

我几乎收到了一千条祝贺短信。

I've almost gotten a thousand texts of congratulations.

是的。

Yeah.

我替你高兴。

I'm happy for you.

我就说，别闹了。

I'm like, no.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这位是哪位？

Who is this?

谢谢。

Thank you.

这位是哪位？

Who is this?

大概有四分之一的短信都在问我是谁。

I'd say a quarter of the text was, who is this?

这位是哪位？

Who is this?

结果发现是十年前或者五年前的老朋友，你就赶紧说，太感谢了。

And and you find it's a friend of yours from ten years ago or five years ago, and you go, thank you so much.

但能亲身经历这一切，真的特别有意思。

But it was actually a really cool experience to share to be there.

我记得事后我找了几位球员，跟他们说：咱们说实话吧。

I remember I went up to a number of the players afterwards, and I said, let's be honest.

这事要是没我，根本办不成。

Couldn't have done this without me.

对吧？

Right?

他们却说：不对，我们自己也能行。

And they go, no.

我们完全可以的。

We could have.

我当时就愣了：真的吗？

I was like, really?

然后我就把电话挂了。

Hung up.

好吧。

Alright.

我来试试几份工作。

Let me try some jobs.

回头见。

See you later.

接下来这个部分你一定会觉得特别搞笑，因为我们在电视上总能看到：大家纷纷打开香槟庆祝。

And then the part that you'll find really funny, because we all see it on TV, is when everybody's popping the champagne.

你肯定喝过香槟吧。

So you've had champagne.

没人会把香槟往眼睛里泼。

Nobody pours champagne on their eyes.

那真的会火辣辣地疼。

It actually is a burning sensation.

真的特别疼。

It really hurts.

所以你才看到有人戴护目镜。

And that's why you see people with goggles.

戴护目镜。

With goggles.

我以前老觉得，这些人也太娇气了吧。

I always thought, oh, what wimps.

我们去的时候也戴护目镜。

We were going in with goggles.

啊？

Oh, what?

连一点水都受不了？

They can't have a little water.

辣椒喷雾。

Pepper spray.

对。

Yeah.

但我当时不知道是因为它会刺痛。

But I didn't know it was because it stung.

我以为只是他们不想让东西进眼睛。

I thought it was just they didn't wanna have stuff.

所以一开始，我没戴护目镜。

So in the beginning, I don't have my goggles on.

天哪，这太刺激了。

I'm like, oh my god.

这招真管用。

This works.

护目镜在哪？

Where are the goggles?

这经历真有意思。

What a cool thing to experience.

不是。

No.

你知道最有趣的是哪部分吗？

And then you know the part that's funny?

仪式进行中间，他们会把整个更衣室都裹上塑料布，好让你随便喷。

So in between the ceremony, they go and they put plastic all over the locker room so that you can go spray.

突然就来了个专业人士，把整个更衣室都用塑料膜封得严严实实。

So all of a sudden, there's some professional guy who comes in and tapes up the whole locker room with plastic.

你一推门进去，简直懵了：这到底发生了什么？

Because you walk in, you're like, what the hell just happened here?

但当我们往里走的时候，我女儿会说：外面有个人说想进来。

But that, and then as we're going in, my daughter would go, there's somebody outside who says he wants to come in.

他能进来吗？

Is he allowed?

我说：当然可以。

I'm like, yeah.

没问题。

Sure.