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Ramp是唯一一个旨在让你的财务团队更精简、更高效、更出色的平台,平均每年为企业节省5%的开支,这样你就能专注于增长。
Ramp is the only platform built to make your finance team leaner, faster, and better, saving businesses 5% annually on average so you can stay focused on growth.
使用Ramp的客户,其收入增长速度是美国普通企业的3.2倍。
Ramp customers grow revenue 3.2 times faster than the average American business.
Visa、Vercel、Cursor、Stripe、Notion、ElevenLab、Shopify以及其他7万家企业现在都在使用Ramp。
Visa, Vercel, Cursor, Stripe, Notion, ElevenLab, Shopify, and 70,000 other businesses all now run on Ramp.
我的公司也在用,你的公司也应该用。
Mine does too and so should yours.
了解更多信息,请访问ramp.com/invest。
Learn more at ramp.com/invest.
Felix by Rogo是一款个人财务助手,只需一条指令,就能利用你公司的模板、背景和标准,完成一份可以直接交给客户的成品工作。
Felix by Rogo is a personal finance agent that turns a single prompt into finished client ready work using your firm's own templates, context, and standards.
给Felix发一封邮件,比如“把这些评论处理一下”或者“根据这些邮件的内容更新我的跟踪表”。
Send Felix an email like take these comments and turn them for me or update my tracker with the context of these emails.
然后Felix就会发回制作完成的PowerPoint演示文稿、Excel表格以及经过调研的资料。
And Felix sends back finished PowerPoint decks, Excel bottles, and sourced research.
Felix 的工作方式和你团队现有的方式一致,全天候快速准确地交付工作。
Felix works the way your team already does, delivering work quickly and accurately around the clock.
更多信息请访问 rogo.ai/felix。
Learn more at rogo.ai/felix.
OpenAI、Cursor、Anthropic、Perplexity 等公司都有一个共同点。
OpenAI, Cursor Anthropic, Perplexity, and all have something in common.
它们都在使用 WorkOS。
They all use WorkOS.
要实现大规模的企业级采用,你必须提供 SSO、SCIM、RBAC 和审计日志等核心功能。
To achieve enterprise adoption at scale, you have to deliver on core capabilities like SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and Audit Logs.
与其自己花几个月时间构建这些关键功能,不如直接使用 WorkOS 的 API,从第一天起就能拥有所有这些功能。
Instead of spending months building these mission critical capabilities yourself, you can just use WorkOS APIs to gain all of them on day zero.
这就是为什么你听说的许多顶尖 AI 团队都已经在使用 WorkOS。
That's why so many of the top AI teams you hear about already run on WorkOS.
WorkOS 是让你快速达到企业级标准、专注于最重要的事情——你的产品——的最快方式。
WorkOS is the fastest way to become enterprise ready and stay focused on what matters most, your product.
访问workos.com即可开始使用。
Visit workos.com to get started.
大家好,欢迎收听。
Hello, and welcome, everyone.
我是Patrick O'Shaughnessy,这里是《像最优秀的人一样投资》。
I'm Patrick O'Shaughnessy, and this is Invest Like The Best.
这个节目是对市场、想法、故事和策略的开放式探索,旨在帮助你更好地投资你的时间和金钱。
This show is an open ended exploration of markets, ideas, stories, and strategies that will help you better invest both your time and your money.
如果你喜欢这些对话,想深入了解,可以看看我们的季刊Colossus,里面深度介绍了塑造商业和投资领域的人物。
If you enjoy these conversations and wanna go deeper, check out Colossus, our quarterly publication with in-depth profiles of the people shaping business and investing.
你可以在colossus.com找到Colossus以及我们所有的播客。
You can find Colossus along with all of our podcasts at colossus.com.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy是Positive Sum的首席执行官。
Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum.
Patrick和播客嘉宾所表达的所有观点仅代表他们个人,不代表Positive Sum的立场。
All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum.
本播客仅供参考,不应作为投资决策的依据。
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
Positive Sum的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券头寸。
Clients of positive sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
了解更多信息,请访问psum.vc。
To learn more, visit psum.vc.
那么,从哪里开始这场希望会非常有趣的对话呢?
So where to begin what will hopefully be a really fun conversation?
我想,因为你和我对很多相同的事情感兴趣,我只是好奇你今天在想什么。
I guess because you and I are interested in so many of the same things, I'm just curious what's on your mind today.
我觉得我们俩都有点焦头烂额,而且这种情况已经持续一段时间了。
I think we're both feeling a little frenzied, and it's been going for a while.
而且感觉,如果有变化的话,可能会变得更加疯狂和混乱,不仅是你所做的事情,还有你周围的世界。
And it kinda feels like if anything, it might get more frenzied and more chaotic both for what you do, but also the world around what you do.
所以,就此刻而言,感觉如何?
So just in this moment, what does it feel like?
你在想什么呢?
What's on your mind?
对于任何考虑如何度过这段时期的投资者来说,一个显而易见的问题就是:这会如何发展,又和过去有什么不同?
An obvious thing for anyone thinking about how to navigate this period as an investor is just how does it unfurl and how is it different from the past?
如果没法做回测,我该怎么办?
What do I do if I can't back test?
昨晚我和一位投资界的朋友聊天,他打了个比方说:我一直说想拼命踩刹车,但就是没踩。
I was talking to a investor friend last night and the analogy he gave me was, I keep saying I wanna press the brakes as hard as I can, but I'm not doing it.
以每小时90英里的速度前进。
Going 90 miles an hour.
我确实觉得问题在于:你是错过一边的机会,还是犯下科技史上每一次繁荣萧条周期都会犯的错误?
And I do think the question is, do you miss the opportunity on one side or do you make the mistake of every boom bust cycle in technology history?
尤其是再加上,当你已经创办公司四年,要考虑公司的持久性和员工的职业生涯时,这又意味着什么?
Especially if you like combine that with what does it mean when you're also four years into building a firm for the durability of the firm and the careers of the people.
我觉得这是个复杂的问题。
I think it's a complex question.
你觉得我们写的那个简介里说的对吗?就是说你其实是在做一个具体的赌注,或者叫定位,随便你怎么叫,就是AI领域里几个实验室和其他所有人之间正在发生一件非常重要的根本性的事情。
Do you think that we got it right in the profile that we wrote that you're sort of making a specific, I think we called it a wager or a bed, a positioning, whatever you wanna call it, that there is a really important fundamental thing happening between a couple of labs in AI and everybody else.
而且我们需要行动起来,确保我们不会最终陷入一个非常单一化的结果。
And that we need to sort of like take up arms to make sure we don't end up in like a very monolithic outcome.
你是这么想的吗?
Do you think about it that way?
我可能会换个方式来回答,那就是我相信历史是由伟人推动的。
I would answer in a maybe different way, which is I believe in like the great man and great woman theories of history.
如果所有这些地方都有非常积极主动的人,而且他们有正确的风险资本或者网络或环境中的支持,是的,你就能改变结果。
If you have very high agency people in all of these places and they have the correct risk capital or support in the network or environment, yeah, you change outcomes.
你看一些非常重要的问题,比如开源模型的未来,还有美国的产业政策。
You look at very important questions of what happens to open source models and like US industrial policy.
如果你考虑未来生态系统的机会,会不会有一个有竞争力的西方开源模型?
If you think about the opportunity for the ecosystem in the future, is there going to be a competitive Western open source model?
这实际上引出了一个问题,有没有人真的做出了一个?
Like, actually leads to like, did anybody make one?
他们能筹到钱吗?或者他们愿意投入资金、聚集人才、建设基础设施,去争夺前沿吗?
Could they like raise the money or were they willing to commit the capital and to gather the talent base, build all the infrastructure and fight for the frontier or not?
我确实认为个人和创业者能够影响结果。
I definitely think that individual people and entrepreneurs can affect the outcome.
我不一定把它看作一场战争。
I don't necessarily think of it as a war.
我和那些实验室合作紧密,共同投资,而且我在那里有很多朋友。
I am working closely with and co invest with and have many friends at the labs.
我认为可以说,有些人,无论在这些大实验室内部还是外部,持有一种极端的观点,认为拥有一两个或三个前沿模型的所有者会主导整个经济。
I think it's fair to say the extreme point of view that some folks may had in and outside of those big labs of the owner of one, two, three frontier models consumes the economy.
我非常明确地不想要那样的未来。
I do not want that future very clearly.
而且我认为我们不会走到那一步。
And I don't think we are going to end up there.
你在这个理论的意义上,是否积极想成为一个伟大的女性?
Do you actively want to be a great woman in this sense of the theory?
不是。
No.
我不是说个人谦虚什么的。
I don't mean that from, like, a personal humility perspective.
就是这不在我的目标清单里。
It's just like it's not on my set of goals.
我想成为我尝试做的事情里最好的投资者。
I want to be the best investor in the things that I try to do.
所以这不是因为缺乏野心或者信心。
So it's not out of a lack of ambition or even confidence.
我觉得有些人是被这种想法驱动的,比如‘我要成为让这件事发生的人’。
It's I think some people are driven by like, I want to be the person that made this happen.
我很久以来一直以为自己会成为一个软件创业者。
I thought I was gonna be like a software entrepreneur for the longest time.
我决定从身份认同的角度做一个投资者,其实很大程度上是因为我充满好奇心。
My decision that from an identity perspective, I was going to be an investor actually had a lot to do with the idea of I'm deeply curious.
我喜欢去理解事物。
I like to understand things.
我喜欢自己是对的。
I like to be right.
和优秀的人一起工作让我很有动力。
I'm very motivated by working with extraordinary people.
如果我有一些技能,能用它们帮助别人更成功,那对早期投资来说挺合适的。
If I have a set of skills using those to make them more successful, it's like a pretty good fit for early stage investing.
如果我想和最优秀的人合作,想让公司产生影响,那公司就能支持我们想看到的运动和改变。
If I wanna work with the very best people and I want the companies to have impact, the firm can support a movement and support change we wanna see.
但我觉得不一定非得是我。
But I don't think it has to be me.
如果这是目标,你觉得现在在竞争激烈的环境里,要做到最好需要什么?
If that's the goal, what does it take, do you think, right now to be the best in a very competitive environment?
不可否认,你到目前为止做得非常好。
Undeniably, you've done really well so far.
我很好奇,要做到这么好需要付出什么,你觉得在未来一年里,在Horizon内部,要做到这么好又需要什么?
I'm curious what it has taken to be that good and what you think it's going to take in the next year plus within Horizon to be that good.
我觉得到目前为止还挺简单的。
I think it's been pretty simple so far.
我对环境的理解是,公司的增长和正在发生的代际更替意味着,早期投资领域的竞争格局并不是历史上最激烈的。
My read of the environment was the growth of firms and generational transitions that were happening meant that it wasn't the most competitive landscape in early that it has been.
而且当时正经历一场大规模的技术转型。
And you had this massive technology transition happening.
如果你押注于理解技术和社区,并从第一性原理出发,你可能会比那些不够专注的人获得更好的机会,做出更好的决策。
And if you took the bet on understanding the technology and the community and approach it from first principles, you might have better access and make better decisions than others who are less focused.
你只需要承担风险并保持专注,剩下的就是执行了。
All you have to do is take the risk and be focused, and then it's an execution play.
这就像那些说起来简单但做起来难的事情之一,真的需要付出努力。
That's one of those things that I think is, like, pretty simple and it's just hard, this effort.
我觉得现在其实也没那么复杂。
I think today, has actually been not that complicated.
这更多取决于你对共事的人的标准是什么。
It's more about what your bar is for the people you work with.
我和我的搭档迈克一开始就有一些现成的关系和了解。
And my partner, Mike, and I started with a set of preexisting relationships and understanding.
所以我觉得这挺有用的。
And so I think that has been useful.
当然,肯定不只是比别人更努力这么简单。
Surely, there must be more than just outworking everyone.
几周前迈克跟我说了一件有意思的事,他说大概有250人左右,是他或者你们会想到的,这些人既是创业者又是研究者,而且
Mike said something interesting to me a couple weeks ago, which was there's sort of 250 ish people that he thinks about or you guys think about that are some combination of entrepreneurs and researchers and
在做最前沿、最有趣的事情。
Doing the most interesting things on the frontier.
对。
Yes.
就是那些真正每天早起,推动整个领域前进的人。
The people that are actually showing up in the morning and pushing this whole thing forward.
而且你们公司的一个目标就是尽可能接近那些人,认识他们所有人,并尽可能多地支持他们。
And that one of your goals as a firm is to be as close to those people, know them all and be as close to them and support them in as many ways as possible.
我真的很喜欢这个想法。
I really like that idea.
这个想法很棒。
It's a cool idea.
这不仅仅是和那些创业的人开很多会。从外面看,从旁观者的角度看,似乎有更多独特的事情在发生,而不仅仅是竞争少、我们更专注、执行得更好。
And that's more than just doing a bunch of meetings with people that are starting companies From the outside looking in from the cheap seats, it looks like there's more unique stuff going on than just the competition set was low and we focused more and we're executing better.
我对到目前为止成功的要素很感兴趣。
I'm interested in the ingredients that have been so far a part of success.
我不点名,但有一个知名的LP每年都会做一项调查,问其他所有顶级LP最想投资谁。
I won't name them, but there's one well known LP that does this survey every year of what all the other fancy LPs, who they most wanna invest with.
你们不是第一就是第二。
You're either number one or two.
无论是你们投资的公司、目前的业绩,还是市场看法,都有一些值得关注的地方。
There's something going on both with the companies you've invested in, with the performance so far, with the market perception.
这不仅仅是表面上的东西。
There's something more than just, okay.
那是我们非常努力的一个时期。
It was a moment in time we worked really hard.
我一直在试图找出那些关键因素。
I'm I'm trying to get at those ingredients.
所以我才会一直追问。
That's why I'm pushing on it.
说到可能会做出别人不敢做的赌注,我们仔细思考了哪些市场会变得重要,以及如果我们对能力增长和影响范围的判断是对的,这个时代的创始人会有什么不同。
To the point of perhaps making a bet that others wouldn't, we thought very carefully about what markets are going to matter and what might be different about the founders that we look at in this era if we are right about capability growth and the breadth of impact.
这对其他人来说可能并不明显。
That would just be non obvious to other people.
与现状相比,最大的不同在哪里?
Where's the biggest difference from the status quo?
框架会如何改变?
How does the framework change?
我给你举两个例子。
And I'll give you two examples.
第一年我们特别关注的是应用领域、工作流程和职业,以及那些我们认为非常适合模型的任务,这是一种非常技术导向的思路。
One of the things that we were really looking for in the first year was application areas, workflows and professions, tasks that we thought were a good fit for purpose for the models, which is a very technology forward approach.
很多人会说,这太扯了。
Lots of people be like, this is nonsense.
你得考虑客户的问题,从客户需求出发才是唯一正确的做法。
You gotta think about the customer problem and working from the customer back is the only way.
我们两个都想要。
We wanna do both.
如果你看Harvey和法律的功能,理性地讲,如果你认为我们可以用语言做下一个词预测,而且你在2022年底就知道这一点,那么法律就是结构化的语言。
And if you look at Harvey and the function of the law, rationally, if you think that we can do next token prediction with language and you knew that in late twenty twenty two, then law is structured language.
我不是律师。
I'm not a lawyer.
但从外部来看,我觉得你需要阅读大量文档,我们有检索功能,你需要生成文本,而且无论是律所内部还是普通法和历史中,都有大量的文本。
But from the outside, I'm like, you need to like read a lot of documents and we had retrieval and you need to generate text and there's a lot of text both inside firms and in common law and history.
这看起来真的很匹配。
That feels like a really good match.
我们还对现在可能实现的事情、在这些可能中哪些是有价值的,以及谁和我们志同道合,持有非常具体的看法。
We also took a very specific view of what is now possible and then what is valuable within what is possible and then who's aligned with us.
温斯顿和加布,他们以一种非常AI狂热的方式相信AI会改变法律实践。
Winston and Gabe, they believed that AI would transform the practice of the law in a very AI pilled way.
我们将与律师一起完成极其复杂的工作。
We will do enormously complex work with lawyers.
我不知道什么时候。
I don't know when.
可能是明年,也可能是五年后。
It could be next year or five years from now.
但从我能看加州房东租客协议并回答一个相对简单的问题,到我能设想处理动视暴雪的并购案并完成85%的工作,这是一个巨大的跨越。
But from the kernel of I can look at a landlord tenant agreement in California and answer a question, somewhat trivial, to I can project to doing a Activision Blizzard M and A and doing 85% of the work.
这确实是个飞跃。
That's a leap.
当时吸引我的是那种可能性的雄心壮志,以及为什么它会奏效的技术逻辑。
The thing that appealed to me in that moment was the ambition of what was possible then and the technical logic of, like, why it would work.
我觉得这可能是不同于其他人当时处理方式的决策框架。
I think that's probably this different decision making framework from how other people are approaching in that moment.
那个小组今天在讨论什么,就是那个两百五十人的研究前沿小组?
What is that group talking about today, the two fifty researcher frontiers group?
最有趣的事情是什么,今天和六个月前或十二个月前相比,最显著的区别是什么?
What's the most interesting thing and the most notable difference between today and six months ago or twelve months ago or something?
那是一个竞争极其激烈的领域。
It is a violently competitive landscape.
我觉得十二个月前是这样,但现在比24年和36年还要激烈。
Think I that was true twelve months ago, but even more true than it was '24 and then '36.
我认为人们非常担心这是一个全球竞争的领域,而且这让人感到不安,因为我觉得这也打破了某种叙事。
I think people are very concerned that it's a globally competitive landscape, and there's insecurity in that because I think it's a bit narrative breaking as well.
我要先描述一个信念,然后再质疑这个信念。
I'm going to describe a belief and then question the belief.
这个信念是,随着AI研究模型能够自我递归改进,从而提升模型自身,我们距离某种指数级智能只有一两年时间了。
The belief is with recursive self improvement of AI research models that can improve the models themselves, we are a year, two years away from some sort of exponential intelligence.
我觉得这个信念在过去十二个月里对很多研究者来说是新的。
I think that belief is new within the last twelve months for a lot of researchers.
有人说我们离那还有两年,安德烈·卡帕西会非常自嘲地说,他觉得自己离那还有两年已经说了十年了。
Some driver of it that we are two years away, Andrei Karpathy will actually in a very self aware way say, I thought it was two years away for about ten years.
不过公平地说,他现在又这么想了。
And he thinks it again, to be fair.
谁知道呢?
Who can say?
我确实觉得,现在各大实验室计算密集度这么高,人员规模这么大,作为OpenAI的200名员工之一,那种“我能推动大局”的感觉已经不一样了。
I do think that there is some sense of the major labs are so compute intensive and so large from a headcount perspective now that the sense of contribution of I can move the needle of OpenAI as 200 people.
研究者其实没那么多。
There's not that many researchers.
问题在于,我们怎么达到那个目标,真的取决于每一个人。
The question of like, how do we get there is really up to every single person.
现在,如果问题是,我需要7500亿美元的算力投入,而且我们有成千上万的人在解决这个问题。
Now, if the question is, well, I need $750,000,000,000 of compute spend and we have many thousands of people working on this problem.
我觉得人们对结果的掌控感就变弱了。
I think people feel less ownership of the outcome.
哦,这挺有意思的。
Oh, that's interesting.
所以这就像是算力的问题。
So it's just like a function of getting compute.
推动这件事突破的是算力,而不是我们个人的努力。
That's the thing that's gonna push this thing over the line, not our own human efforts.
我确实觉得有很多研究人员会认为现在有两种情况之一是真的。
I definitely think there's a large contingent of researchers who would feel that one of two things is now true.
一种是我做什么都不重要了,因为模型自己会搞定。
What I do doesn't matter anyway because the model is gonna do it.
另一种是唯一重要的就是算力的规模。
Or two, the only thing that matters is compute scale.
这两种想法都让人有点泄气。
And both of those are somewhat disempowering.
那他们到底在干什么呢?
So then what are they doing?
如果我相信这两点,而且我是顶尖的五位研究员之一的话。
If I believe both of those and I'm a top five researcher or something.
这说明你的心理状态,因为你想要做有意义的事情。
That says something about your psychology because you want to do something that matters.
我觉得也有一群科学家,他们就是想研究这个东西,不管他们的工作是否重要。
I think there's also a set of scientists who want to work on the thing whether or not it matters that they're working on it.
昨天有个企业家问我,如果我觉得我们无法稍微改变这些公司的结果,我就不会去投资这些公司。
An entrepreneur asked me yesterday, I would not work on the companies if I felt like we couldn't change the outcomes a little bit for them.
他昨天问我,你投资的公司里,有没有哪家如果没有你,那一轮融资就不会成功?
He asked me yesterday, would any of the companies that you backed not been backed without you at that round?
是不是人们就会直接说不?
Would people just said no?
最多5%到10%。
5%, 10% max.
他们都是很有办法、很有才华的人。
They were resourceful, really talented people.
他们会找到其他投资人。
They find other investors.
世界上有很多聪明的投资人愿意冒这个险。
There are lots of smart investors in the world who wanna take that risk.
也许他们就不会再投入下一个一亿美元的算力了。
Maybe they wouldn't have gone the next $100,000,000 of compute.
我觉得现在在顶尖实验室做前沿研究的每个研究员,不一定都觉得自己是这台机器里不可或缺的一部分。
I don't think every researcher doing frontier work at these top couple labs right now feels like they're essential to the machine.
你觉得现在这一切里最不健康的部分是什么?
What do you think is unhealthiest part of everything going on right now?
比如,你最担心人们正在努力实现的目标是什么?你最担心哪些事情会阻碍你希望看到的未来?
Like what worries you about what people are trying to accomplish and what are the things that you're most worried will inhibit the future that you wanna see?
我觉得算力是一个问题。
I think compute is one.
人,我觉得,也很重要。
People, I think, that very well.
未来五到十年,我们能不能有足够的算力。
The version of us having enough compute over the next five to ten years.
现在大家基本上都在考虑2032年的大规模情况。
And people are like very much thinking about like 2,032 at this point at scale.
这周早些时候,我和一家超大规模云服务商的基础设施负责人聊过。
I was talking to the leader for infrastructure at one of the hyperscalers earlier in the week.
他说,在2030年之前,没有什么能在大规模上真正改变局面。
And he's like, there was nothing that is gonna move the needle for us at sufficient scale before 2030.
这挺让人沮丧的。
That's depressing.
我们上哪儿去找足够的天然气呢?
Where can we get sufficient natural gas?
过去,美国人和企业家们一直都能非常非常快地开发新技术和新能力。
Americans and entrepreneurs have been able to build new technologies and new capabilities very, very quickly in the past.
我觉得这不是技术、能力或者资本主义的问题。
I don't think it is a technology or capability or capitalism problem.
我认为这是监管问题和协调问题。
I think it is a regulatory problem and an alignment problem.
我说的不是那种AI对齐。
And I don't mean like AI alignment.
我的意思是,如果你想在纽约建数据中心,你得说服纽约人,让他们觉得那里应该建数据中心,或者让美国人觉得美国应该建数据中心。
I mean, if you want to build data centers in New York, you need to convince the people of New York they should want data centers there or America should want data centers there.
如果你想让核电作为基础负荷电力在价格上有竞争力,那你得让人们相信它是安全的,并且你得允许足够的建设。
If you want to make the price of nuclear competitive as baseload power, then you need to convince people it's safe and you need to allow enough construction of
AP1000型反应堆。
AP1000s.
对。
Yeah.
备用棒。
Rest bars.
为了让价格降下来,因为我们理论上知道成本曲线会怎么变。
In order for the price to come down because we understand how that cost curve will change in theory.
我觉得我们不缺技术和创业能力来为数据中心提供充足且便宜的能源。
I don't think we lack the technical and entrepreneurial capability to build abundant cheap energy for the data centers.
这是第一点。
That's one.
实体供应链是个残酷的现实。
The physical supply chain, it's just a tough reality.
这让我担心,学习建造东西、掌握隐性知识、以及劳动力和原材料的获取,这些都没法像软件或者决策那么快。
That makes me worried that the learning to build things and having the tacit knowledge and the labor and the raw materials that can't go as fast as software or even decision making.
唯一的办法就是硬着头皮干。
The only way through that is through.
我们只能投入。
We just have to invest in it.
在投资方面,让我担心的是,我和我们几位创始人聊过,他们都是研究人员,我告诉他们,他们讲故事的能力以及让公司对投资者来说清晰易懂的能力,显然对他们的成功非常重要。
On the investing side of what worries me, I was talking to one of our founders, several of our founders who are researchers and explaining that the quality of their storytelling and their ability to make the companies that's legible to investors is, like, obviously very important to their success.
这前期会是一个资本密集型的大投入。
That's going to be a CapEx intensive play upfront.
对所有这些人来说,金融领域的现实是,我不是研究科学家。
The reality of the financial landscape for all of these people is I'm not a research scientist.
你也不是研究科学家。
You're not a research scientist.
而且所有的资本都不是研究科学家。
And all of the capital is not research scientists.
这需要企业家去讲清楚他们的故事。
It's on entrepreneurs to go explain their story.
但挑战之一是,有很多人试图投资科技项目,这本身是应该的。
But one of the challenges is there are a lot of people attempting to invest as they should in technology bets.
但他们对基础知识的理解程度各不相同。
It varies how much fundamental understanding there is.
很多时候,判断都是靠背景或者一些看得见的信号来做的。
There's a lot of proxying of judgment to pedigree or to other legible signals.
谁投了?
Who's invested?
推荐信总是好的。
References are always good.
推荐人是谁?
Who are the referral sources?
所以决策就不那么基于基本面了。
And so the decision making is less fundamental.
我问了一个特别厉害的投资人朋友。
I asked a extraordinarily good investor friend.
我们像平常一样争论了一番。
We had a debate like you do.
然后我就说,我不明白。
And I like, I don't understand.
这家公司要成为什么样的大公司?
What is this company gonna be that would be big?
给我解释一下。
Explain it to me.
他的解释基本上就是,你了解这个人的能力吗?
His explanation was essentially, do you know the quality of this person?
是的。
Yes.
我认识这个人八年了,知道他的能力。
I've known the quality of the person for eight years.
那些技术理论和商业模式对我来说没什么意义。
The technical theory in business don't make sense to me.
而且人们在没有直觉或观点的情况下,就大规模下注研究项目。
And people are making large scale research bets without any intuition for them or without any opinion on them.
我就觉得,不可能全都成功。
And I'm like, it's not all gonna work.
而且我可能也不一定比他们更会判断,但我们想要的是那种直觉。
And I may not be any better at deciding, but we want to get to that intuition.
我觉得除了看人的背景之外,对业务没有自己的看法是很危险的。
And I think not having a point of view on the business besides the pedigree of the person is dangerous.
Vanta为超过16000家快速发展的公司(如Ramp、Cursor和Harvey)自动化安全和合规流程,让它们全天候保持审计就绪状态。
Vanta automates security and compliance for over 16,000 fast moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey, keeping them audit ready around the clock.
它是排名第一的智能信任平台,现在还能帮助像你这样的公司在审计间隙发现风险,覆盖你的供应商、AI工具以及整个环境。
It's the number one agentic trust platform, and it now helps companies like yours watch for the risks that show up between audits, across your vendors, your AI tools, and your whole environment.
你的团队每注册一个新工具,每个供应商启用AI功能,都可能出问题,而大多数安全项目并不是为AI的增长速度而设计的。
Every new tool your team signs up for, every vendor that turns on AI features, is an opportunity for something to go wrong, and most security programs weren't built for AI's pace of growth.
Vanta代理就像后台的24/7 GRC工程师,帮你发现问题、起草修复方案,并将供应商评估时间缩短最多50%。
The Vanta agent works like a 20 fourseven GRC engineer in the background, finding issues, drafting fixes for you, and cutting vendor assessment time by up to 50%.
无论你是快速成长的初创公司还是全球企业,Vanta都能帮你赢得并证明信任。
Whether you're a fast growing startup or a global enterprise, Vanta helps you earn and prove trust.
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Ridgeline是首个集成了AI的投资管理端到端记录系统,将投资组合会计、对账、报告、交易和合规统一在一个平台上。
Ridgeline is the first end to end system of record with embedded AI for investment management running portfolio accounting, reconciliation, reporting, trading, and compliance on one unified platform.
许多公司正在从传统技术转向Ridgeline,因为Ridgeline的AI功能在投资管理软件中遥遥领先。
Firms are moving off legacy technology and onto Ridgeline because of how far ahead Ridgeline's AI features are compared to anything else in investment management software.
这就是为什么我相信,在AI时代脱颖而出的公司将是那些运行在Ridgeline统一平台上的公司。
Which is why I believe that firms that come out ahead in the AI era will be the ones running on Ridgeline's unified platform.
如果你认真对待你公司的AI战略,Ridgeline应该成为讨论的一部分。
If you're serious about your firm's AI strategy, Ridgeline should be part of that conversation.
你可以在ridgeline.ai上申请演示。
You can request a demo at ridgeline.ai.
哪位研究者的工作最让你印象深刻?他们是怎么做到的?
Who is a researcher that has most blown you away, and how did they do so?
他们做了什么事让你觉得特别了不起,回到伟人理论?
What's something that they did that to you felt extraordinary back to the great person theory?
有不少这样的人,我认为历史书会把他们的一项贡献写成真正非凡的事情,创造了这个转折点。
There are a number of these people who I think the history books will write about a contribution of theirs as a truly extraordinary thing that created this kink.
能举个例子吗?你看到他们做了什么特别的事?
What's an example of a person like that and something that you've seen them do?
我和我的搭档是通过Sunday Robotics认识赵承志和Tony的,当时他们还在斯坦福读博士。
My partner, and I were introduced to Tony, Zhao, Chengchi at Sunday Robotics when they were PhD students at Stanford.
他们在丰田研究院、DeepMind和特斯拉都工作过,所以绝对不只是学术圈的人。
They worked at Toyota Research and DeepMind and Tesla, and so they weren't just academics by any means.
他们当时是很年轻的博士生,大概25岁左右。
They were young PhD students who I think they were, like, 25.
我记得其中一个人好像没毕业。
I think one of them didn't finish.
他们就直接创业开公司了。
They just, started the company.
当时和现在我都觉得他们很厉害,我记得第一次看他们的研究成果时,花了好一阵子才搞明白。
What I thought was impressive about them then and then now, I remember looking at their body of work, took me a while to get oriented.
但我觉得过去四年里,机器人AI领域大多数有意思的想法都是他们两个人提出来的。
But I think that they have contribute dual handedly most of the interesting ideas in robotics AI over the last four years.
这对两个非常年轻的人来说,真是件挺不寻常的事。
That's a pretty weird thing for two very young people to do.
如果让我概括一下他们的想法,那就是:怎么用现代人工智能,以非常实际的方式,解决机器人领域的泛化和稳健性问题?
If I try to characterize the type of ideas, it is how can I use modern AI to solve the robotics generalization and robustness problem in a very practical way?
机器人领域有个信念,就是如果我们有了机器人的互联网数据,那到处都能有完全通用的机器人了。
It is believed in robotics that if we just had the Internet of robotics data, yeah, we'd have fully general robots everywhere.
这显然会成功的。
This is clearly gonna work.
一个大的研究和实践难题是:这些数据从哪儿来?
One of the big research and practical problems is like, where do you get that data?
Tony和Chang研究的一些想法,就是怎么用最省钱的方式,巧妙地收集数据,同时还能覆盖真实世界的各种环境和任务。
Some of the ideas that Tony and Chang have worked on is how can you be clever about collecting the data in the cheapest way possible in a way that supports the distribution of real world environments and tasks.
所以我觉得,他们的创造性在于,他们认真思考了实际的限制条件——我们没有数据,也没有足够的资金去获取数据,于是他们把这个当作一个技术问题来解决,研究数据的形态、收集方式,以及这些数据如何与模型互动,还有多少这种低成本收集的数据能用于模型训练。
And so I think the creativity of thinking about the actual constraints, we don't have the data, we don't have incident dollars to spend on the data and we're gonna treat as a technical problem to solve of the shape of the data and the collection and how does it interact with the model and how much of these cheap data collection can we transfer to model learning.
这真的很有意思。
That's super interesting.
这非常注重结果。
That's very outcomes driven.
第一次见面我就被震撼到了。
I was blown away in the first meeting.
我们当时立刻就答应了,幸好如此。
We said yes immediately there, thankfully.
公司成立还不到两年。
It's just under two years that the company has been around.
在真正交付之前,一切都还不算数。
Nothing is true until it is shipped.
整个团队都相信,今年年底我们就能让通用半人形机器人先在人们家中进行测试。
This entire team believes that we are going to have general semi humanoid robots doing things in people's homes first in beta end of this year.
这是我们之前谁都没敢想的事。
That is not something that any of us believed.
从斯坦福地下室的一堆纸板,到在这里制造出来的完整系统,能这么快做到,真是让我惊叹。
It blows me away that you can move that quickly from bunch of cardboard in a Stanford basement to the full stack thing that is manufactured here.
我们在模型数据采集上做了几百次硬件迭代,把这些都转化成了任务,并在各种真实环境中进行了测试。
We have done hundreds of iterations of hardware on model data collection and translated it into tasks and test it in all these real world environments.
这肯定会成功的。
It's gonna work.
佣金制度真的很酷。
Commissions are very cool.
我觉得这个速度简直让人难以置信。
I think the speed of that is mind boggling.
我仍然认为,从广泛的角度来看,不是所有人,但很多机器人领域的人都觉得,现在的问题不是会不会发生,而是什么时候发生。
I still think the broad view, not everyone, but like lots of people in robotics are like, now it's a question of when, not if.
让我惊讶的是,团队的态度是,如果今年不行,那就明年。
It surprised me that the team was like, if not this year, next year.
我对你做出投资决策的那些时刻非常好奇。
I'm very curious about the moments of your investment decisions.
就像你刚才说的,在第一次会议上,你差不多就是那种‘我们加入’的态度。
Like you just said in the first meeting, you were sort of like, we're in.
是不是总是这样,还是也有让你犹豫不决的时候?
Is it always like that, or are there examples of things where you, like, hem and haw?
最后你还是做了,而且成功了。
You end up doing it, and it works.
我很想多听听你和你的团队是怎么做投资决策的,就是那种在会议室里实际讨论的过程,比如,这个东西挺有意思。
I would love to hear more about how you and your team make investment decisions, the actual in the room process for, okay, this thing is interesting.
我们要做还是不做。
We're gonna do it or we're not.
我们在争论。
We're debating it.
这个过程是怎样的?
What is that process?
是什么样的感觉?
What is it like?
这要看公司的情况。
It varies based on company.
我对人非常凭直觉。
I'm very instinctive on people.
我经常立刻就知道自己想做什么。
I often know I want to do something immediately.
如果我知道某人做过什么,然后我和他们交流,听到他们的想法,而且我对这个想法有一些基础和背景,我们有一个评分标准,一到十分。
If I know what somebody has worked on and then I interact with them and I hear the idea and I have some basis, some background in the idea, we have a rating scale, a one to 10 scale.
我马上就会给到八分或九分。
I'm like immediately an eight or a nine.
在那之后到真正做决定之间,我通常在做的事情是找出我理解中的漏洞,找出我对他们前提或对他们本人的判断哪里不完整或错误。
What I'm then doing between that and a real decision is often figuring out where the holes in my understanding, where my judgment of their premise or them is incomplete or wrong.
我不知道什么?
What do I not know?
如果你是一个寻找最有雄心、最有影响力的公司的投资者,你不可能了解每个领域。
If you're an investor looking for the most ambitious, impactful companies, you can't know every domain.
我们有生物、国防、机器人和法律。
We have biology and defense and robotics and law.
我会花接下来一天到几周的时间拼命让自己落地,然后想,好吧,大家对这个领域怎么看?
I'm like spending the next day to few weeks desperately trying to ground myself and being like, okay, what does everybody else believe about this space?
他们是不是我想象中的那种人?
Are they the people I think they are?
这就是我的工作流程。
That's what my process looks like.
然后我想要得到反馈。
And then I wanna get feedback.
我想听听别人对这些人有什么看法。
I wanna get like second reads on people.
我想搞清楚核心问题是什么。
I wanna understand what the core questions are.
我是个喜欢写备忘录的人。
I'm a memo person.
即使在公司刚成立、只有我一个人的时候,我也会写一份完整的备忘录,可能有点像Greylock的风格,然后发给一个我信任的投资人朋友,听听他们从基金之外的角度怎么看。
Even at the very beginning of the firm when it was just me, I would like write the full memo, perhaps Greylock style, ship it off to a friend that was an investor who I trusted for their perspective outside of the funds.
你和我聊过,你觉得合作伙伴关系里最重要的是什么?
You and I have talked about what do you value about a partnership?
我觉得我自己做投资决策没问题,但别人能让我变得更好。
And I'm like, I'm comfortable making investment decisions, but I think other people can make me better.
我希望有人能挑战我的逻辑,让我反思。
I want people to like push at the logic and have me reflect.
所以我以前会把备忘录发给约翰·利利或者迪伦·菲尔德这样的人。
So I used to like take the memo and like send it to John Lilly or Dylan Field or something.
我们会一起过一遍备忘录。
We ran a memo.
我会去问问贝拉、康纳或者迈克,看他们想了解这个人什么,尽量把画像补全。
I'd go see what Bella or Conv or Mike wants to know about the person, try to complete the picture.
我觉得有些人在做决策时更冷静。
Other people I think are like more even in their decision making.
他们会反复思考,想了一遍又一遍。
They're like thinking about it and thinking about it.
他们是慢慢建立起信心的,而我是一开始就有信心,然后倒推着来。
They climb to conviction versus I start there and then I like work backwards.
但我觉得我和Mike有一个共同点,就是我们都会先定一个起点,然后说明什么能让我们改变想法。
But I think a similarity between both Mike and I is we'll start at a point and explain what will move us.
这周早些时候,我和我的合伙人Bella见了一家很有意思的公司。
I met a really interesting company earlier this week with my partner, Bella.
我当时就想,好吧。
And I'm like, okay.
凭直觉,我是看好它的,但我不太懂这里的科学原理。
Instinctively, I, like, am positive on it, but I don't know enough about the science here.
我得去确认一下这到底靠不靠谱。
And I have to, like, go make sure this makes sense.
如果你都不懂,你还能给它打八分或九分吗?
Can you really be an eight or a nine if you don't get it?
不能。
No.
我做不到。
I couldn't get there.
然后就像我们刚才说的,这也是我这段时间的一个担忧,就是如果你对这个赌注本身没有任何直觉上的把握,那我们在这里干什么呢?
And then as we were talking about, it is one of my concerns for this period of time where I'm like, if you don't feel like you have any grounded intuition on the bet itself, what are we doing here?
我在想这样说是公平的。
I'm trying think about if that's fair.
如果Bret Taylor想的话,对。
If Bret Taylor wanted to like Yeah.
那就像什么……
That's like what the
在痛苦的时候深入挖掘,或者做狗直播之类的。
Dig in while the pain goes or do dog streaming or something.
就像,是的。
Be like, yeah.
当然,兄弟。
Of course, man.
但他不会那么做的。
But he wouldn't do that.
我脑子里有一种想法,就是哪怕它编译不过去我也不在乎。
There's some version of I don't even care if it doesn't compile in my brain.
这个人好得无可挑剔,我就是愿意支持他。
The person is so undeniably good that I would just back them.
比如布雷特。
Brett, as an example.
对。
Yes.
我觉得这些事在我脑子里是密不可分的,因为一个人之所以优秀,部分原因就在于——昨天我还在帮我的一家公司“候选人”想办法。
I feel like these things are so inextricably intertwined in my mind because part of what makes people great like, was trying to help one of my companies, The Candidate, yesterday.
他们问我:“你从这些人身上看到了什么?”
And they're like, oh, what did you see in these people?
我就说:“他们就是特别对。”
And I'm like, they're just so right.
他每次都是对的。
He's right all the time.
他们的行业逻辑无可挑剔。
Their industrial logic is impeccable.
他们也非常看重这些优秀的性格特质。
They They love these great character traits too.
他们招人很厉害,而且他们的观点我觉得在世界上会是对的。
They're amazing at recruiting, but they have a point of view that I think is going to be right in the world.
我见过他们反复做出正确的决定,包括在我犯错的时候。
I've seen them just make repeatedly correct decisions, including when I am wrong.
我真的很佩服这一点。
And I'm like, I have lot of respect for that.
当你说这些人很厉害,我觉得他们厉害的一部分原因是我相信他们的判断力。
When you say like these people are amazing and part of what I think makes them amazing is I believe in their judgment.
如果我不理解他们在做什么,我就没法对他们的判断发表意见。
If I don't understand what they're doing, I can't have an opinion on their judgment.
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Brett在做企业AI。
Brett's doing enterprise AI.
我明白他在做什么。
I understand what he's doing.
如果现在画一个你时间的饼图,不是公司刚成立那会儿,而是现在,会有见新公司。
If I were to build a pie chart of your time now, not when you started the firm, but today, there's meeting new companies.
有帮现有公司。
There's helping existing companies.
有跟研究人员交流。
There's talking to researchers.
有跟其他人相处的时间。
There's time with other people.
有跟候选人谈话。
There's talking to candidates.
我完全不知道会是什么样。
I have no sense of what it would be.
如果让你总结一下,你平时的时间都花在哪些事情上,大概各占多少比例?
If you had to sum it up, what are the things that you spend your time on and what's the percentage allocation?
我觉得我大概有三分之二到五分之三的时间都花在投资组合公司的事情上。
I think I spend two thirds, three fifths of my time working on portfolio company stuff.
包括招人、帮他们理清思路,还有想办法影响外部生态。
And that is recruiting, helping people think through things, trying to influence the outside ecosystem in some way.
然后是募资。
Then raising money.
接下来最大的一块是看项目。
The next largest piece is looking at companies.
我也不确定这样分对不对。
I don't know if this is right or wrong.
有时候会特别焦虑,然后调整一下比例,但我大概每周会看四到六家新公司。
Get paranoid about it and like move the number, but I probably see four to six new companies a week.
这个量其实不算大。
It's not a very high volume.
我在老公司头几个月看了500家公司。
My first couple months at my old firm, I saw 500 companies.
所以我就觉得
And so I'm like
哇。
Wow.
现在我觉得更有把握了,一眼就能看出来。
Now I feel more calibration where I just have much more confidence I can tell.
剩下的时间,我会帮合伙人看项目,也会见一些能让我开阔眼界的人。
The balance of my time, I am doing a combination of help one of my partners look at something, meet people that might teach me something about the world.
可能是研究员。
And that could be a researcher.
如果你在大公司只做早期投资,你可能会很狭隘,因为你的圈子够大。
Or if you are purely early stage in a larger firm, you can be very myopic because your ecosystem is big enough.
而我们是一家很小的公司。
And we are a very small firm.
我们是生态导向的。
We're ecosystem oriented.
所以,通过认识那些想法和我不同、包括不同资产类别的投资者,我学到了很多。
So I've learned so much from just getting to know investors who think differently than I do, including different asset classes.
嗯,我以前很少和公开市场的人打交道,他们看待世界的方式真的很有启发性。
Well, I never spent that much time with public markets people before, and it is very educational how they think about the world.
我会花时间和各种技能和资产类别的投资者交流。
I spend time with other investors of all skills and asset classes.
我现在也和公司打交道,比如一家制药公司,他们正在思考AI会如何改变他们的业务。
I spend time with companies right now with a pharma company who is thinking about how AI is gonna transform their business.
这对我来说很有意思,因为我从中学到了很多他们对未来的看法。
This is very interesting to me because I've learned a lot about what they believe about the future.
我已经做了很多,但我在日程表上留出空间来学习,满足好奇心。
I've done a lot, but I'm like leaving room in my calendar for learning, feeding curiosity.
还有其他的部分,比如连接华盛顿特区的桥梁,对外沟通。
And then there are pieces that are other parts of bridges to DC, external communication.
你打算怎么去筹钱?
Where you going about raising money?
我坚持一个我常给创业者建议的观点:你应该了解别人对你所做的事情的反对意见和疑问,但你不应该只告诉他们想听的话。
I stand with the belief that I advise entrepreneurs with, which is you should understand people's objections to what you are doing and their questions, but you should not tell them what they want to hear.
当我开始为第一支基金募资时,我已经认识很多有限合伙人很长时间了。
When I started the fundraise for Fund One, I knew a lot of LPs over a long period of time already.
所以过程并不复杂。
So it was not very complicated.
但我有一个做私募股权投资的朋友说,你必须给有限合伙人讲一个非常独特的故事。
But I had one of my friends who is a private equity investor who stated you have to have like a very differentiated story for LPs.
漏斗的每个环节都应该明确你要做的具体事情。
Every part of the funnel should be the specific thing you're gonna do.
我当时就想,说实话,我自己还不知道具体要做什么,但我需要先筹到钱,这样才能去尝试和摸索。
And I'm like, let's be honest, I don't know yet, but I need to raise some money so I can go experiment and figure it out.
所以我从来没有做过幻灯片,也没有讲过关于我们现在尝试做的所有事情的特定故事。
So I never made slides and told a specific story about all the things that we attempt to do now.
我觉得你得先接触现实,认真思考,并且真正进入市场,才能知道答案。
I think you don't know until you make contact with the reality and think about it and you're in the market.
确实有些LP不喜欢这样。
There were definitely LPs who did not like that.
我给人们发了一份两页纸的材料,介绍我的背景和投资经历,并声称我擅长识别非凡的人,对这些人有用,并且是真诚的支持者。
I gave people a two pager on my background and investing history and claimed that I was good at identifying extraordinary people, being useful to that set of people and being genuine supporters.
如果你再加上投资判断力和招募能力,你就有了一个起点。
If you combine that with investment judgment and ability to recruit, you got a starting point.
大部分是我对公司文化的一些设想,然后我们会拼命执行,边做边摸索。
Mostly some things I imagine about firm culture, and then we'll go execute like hell and figure it out.
我能理解从LP的角度来看,这确实很难。
I can see how this is tough from an LP perspective.
我非常感激那些早期就押注我们的人,因为他们要为投资委员会写备忘录。
And I deeply value the people who bet on us early because they go write a memo for their investment committee.
他们会说,她会拼命执行的。
And they're like, she's going to execute like hell.
我们走着瞧吧。
We'll find out.
有时候,人们追求的就是故事的清晰度。
Sometimes the cleanliness of the story is what people are looking for.
我没法给其他经理人建议,因为每个人的结果都不一样。
I can't advise other managers on this because people have different outcomes.
如果你告诉别人你要做什么,生活就简单多了;如果你告诉别人你真正相信什么,生活也简单多了。
If you tell people what you are going to do, life is much simpler and what you actually believe life is much simpler.
对我来说,作为投资者,当有人能让我相信世界和我原来想的不一样时,我会立刻变得非常兴奋。
And for me as an investor, when somebody can convince me that the world works differently than I thought, I'm, like, immediately incredibly excited.
也许我能说服别人,事情实际上就是这样运作的。
Maybe I'd convince people that this is just how it actually works.
过去四年里,我见了更多的投资经理。
I've met a lot more investment managers for the last four years.
我认识很多风投,但那些在做创意事情的人,我也认识不少。
I knew a lot of VCs, but people who are doing creative things.
我真的很喜欢像你这样的创业型投资经理,我想你也是,而且你可能想象得到,我并不想建立他们建立的那种公司,但菲利普和托马斯或者Thrive的乔希他们经营业务的那种创造力,以及他们鼓励别人去经营自己业务的那种态度,我觉得很棒。
I really like entrepreneurial investment managers as you, I think, do and as you might imagine, where I'm like, I don't want to build the firms that they've built, but the creativity with which Philippe and Thomas go to or that Josh at Thrive approach their business and the encouragement they have for others to approach their business.
你可以做新的事情,你应该以你的投资管理公司的形式来表达你的观点,我觉得这太棒了。
Well, you can do new things and you should go express your opinions in the form of your investment management firm, I think is amazing.
你看着你父母都是企业家,这对你有什么影响?
What was imprinted on you watching your parents who are both entrepreneurs?
我觉得这对我很有帮助,因为在我的童年和青少年时期,我从来没有觉得他们不在我身边,尽管他们一直在工作。
I think this is very helpful to me because there was no moment of my childhood or being a teenager where I felt like they were not there for me even though they worked all
一直在工作。
the time.
停在这里。
Stop there.
他们俩都是。
Both of them.
如果你试图解决这些问题,我是个相当独立的孩子。
If you try to resolve these things, I was pretty independent kid.
这对我很有帮助。
That helps me.
我不知道自己处于什么位置,但我觉得自己挺独立的。
I don't know where I was in the distribution, but I feel like I was pretty independent.
这让我明白,你的家人可以让你觉得自己是他们世界的中心,但他们也是有自己的兴趣和想做的事的完整的人。
It helps me to think your family can make you feel like you are the center of their world, but they're whole people with other interests and they wanna spend time doing other things too.
甚至只是从记住自己10岁时的感受的角度,来认识到自己的重要性。
Even just recognize my own importance from the perspective of, like, remembering what it's like to be 10 years old.
我喜欢我妈妈。
I liked my mom.
我爱我的爸爸妈妈。
I love my mom and dad.
那真的很酷。
And it was so cool.
我们的家庭价值观和他们非常相似。
Our family values are very similar to theirs.
正直、独立思考、思想独立,然后还有注重家庭、团队精神和家庭。
Integrity, thinking for yourself, independence of thought, and then there's, like, focus on family, team spirit and family.
独立思考可能是其中最不常见的一个。
The independence of thought is probably the least generic one of those.
我觉得很多人都想做好人、善良、努力工作,诸如此类。
I think a lot of people, like, wanna be good and kind and work hard and whatever else.
对我的父母来说,这都关乎道德问题。
For both my parents, it was a moral issue.
你永远不能在意别人怎么想。
You cannot ever worry about what other people think.
我虽然在这个方面走得很远,但有时候还是会想一想。
I'm like far to that side of the spectrum, but I do think about it sometimes.
你有时候确实会在意别人怎么想?
You do sometimes worry what other people think?
是的。
Yeah.
你希望他们怎么想,而你担心他们不会这么想?
What do you want them to think that you worry that they don't?
我担心的是在生态圈里引起别人的竞争敌意。
I worry about raising people's competitive hackles in the ecosystem.
为什么?
Why?
因为我是一个友善的人。
Because I'm a friendly person.
我想和每个人都成为朋友。
I wanna be friends with everybody.
我不介意竞争,但传统A轮、B轮公司那种纯粹的零和竞争态度,就是说我要占这家公司18%到25%的股份,还要进董事会,而你什么都得不到。
I don't mind competition, but the sometimes pure zero sum competition stance of traditional series a firms, series a, series b firms that says, I'm gonna own 18 to 25% of this company and take the board, and you're going to own none of it.
这种态度不利于很多合作。
It's not conducive to like a lot of collaboration.
从激励机制的角度来看,这确实有问题。
There are issues with that from an incentives perspective.
但公开市场的导向是,人们喜欢告诉你他们最好的想法,然后跟着一起涌入。
But the public markets orientation, people are loved to tell you about their best ideas pile in after them.
这是一个非同寻常的情况。
This is an extraordinary situation.
我很想谈谈为什么游戏和娱乐会完全不同,而且人们对它的配置严重不足。
I would love to talk about why gaming and entertainment is gonna be totally different and people are super under indexed on it.
这种导向中有部分吸引我,因为我是一个非常积极的人。
There's part of that orientation that just appeals to me as a very positive some person.
我一直对灵感的来源很感兴趣。
I'm always interested in sources of inspiration.
我好奇两个方面。
I'm curious in two ways.
在你的一生中,谁对你启发最大?
Overall in your life, who has inspired you the most?
还有现在此时此刻,谁对你的启发最大,为什么?
And also right now in this very moment, who is inspiring you the most and why?
我亲眼看着父母创办了一家公司。
I saw my parents build a company.
我当时就觉得,这太酷了。
I was like, this is so cool.
就像是我们跟大公司对着干。
It's us against the man.
那个大公司就是那个大企业。
The man is very big company.
它就像个想置我们于死地的对手。
He's a man that's trying to kill us.
但我们还是能做到,因为我们的技术更好。
We can still do it just because the technology is better.
产品更好,客户自然会想要。
The product is better, and the customer will want it.
我的热情和信念都倾注在创业者身上。
My, like, love and ethos goes to entrepreneurs.
你可以从无到有做出一些东西,因为你看到了更好的未来,而且你能很快做到。
You can make something out of nothing because you see a better future and you can do it really fast.
这些是我想要尝试的事情,很吸引我。
These things appeal to me in terms of what I want to try.
这里面有太多的勇气和乐观。
There's so much courage in that and optimism.
现在有些东西让我觉得有毒,尤其是后Z世代的创业者群体,他们觉得一切都是营销,品牌就是一切。
There is something poisonous that bothers me today where think especially like the post gen z entrepreneurial crowd think it's like all marketing and brand is real.
建立人脉网络是完全真实的。
Building a network is totally real.
没人否认这一点。
No one denies that.
但当人们对世界的运作方式、创业的本质非常愤世嫉俗,觉得那只是靠关系,推特有用而已。
But when folks are very cynical about how the world works, how entrepreneurship works, that it's just nepotism and Twitter is useful.
我觉得那完全是胡说八道。
I think that's nonsense.
如果你专注于创造价值、善待他人,和优秀的人一起工作,并且愿景值得追求,那么成功的概率比你想象的要高。
If you focus on value and treating people well and you work with extraordinary people and the vision is worthwhile, that works more times than you'd think.
关于玩转这个游戏,无论是营销还是融资,总有太多批评的声音。
There's so much criticism about playing the game, be it marketing or fundraising.
我特别讨厌这一点。
And I hate that.
托德就是这样的人。
Todd is like this.
我觉得他非常鼓舞人心。
I find him very inspiring.
他就是那种,只要我们对客户做正确的事,我们就会赢,我觉得他特别鼓舞人心。
And is like this, I find him very inspiring where he's just like, if we just do the right thing by the customer, we will win.
现实感觉比这复杂得多。
Feels a lot more complicated than that.
但我觉得他是对的。
I think he's right.
看起来这招挺管用的。
That seems to be working.
现在一个很大的争论就是,面对那些不是美国制造的开源模型,它们在AI模型性能的前沿上很有竞争力,而且很明显至少在一定程度上是基于美国模型的工作成果,我们该怎么办?
One of the huge debates right now is what to do about the fact that there are open source models, not American made, which are competitive at the frontier of performance of AI models and seem to clearly have been at least to some degree based on the work of American models.
这个问题该怎么处理?
What to do about this?
这对AI的未来意味着什么?
What it means for the future of AI?
公司喜欢开源,因为它们可以基于这些模型构建自己的东西,还有像Base 10这样的公司,它们用很多这样的模型来处理大量的推理工作。
Companies love open source because they can build their own thing and base 10 and others that serve a lot of inference work with a lot of these models.
你觉得怎么做才是对的?
How are you thinking about what's right?
应该发生什么?
What should happen?
实际会发生什么?
What will happen?
这对商业有什么影响?
The implications for business?
这是一个重大、棘手、重要且有趣的问题。
This is big hard important interesting question.
确实是个大问题。
It's a big question.
我的观点是,什么对商业、美国、生态系统和个人有益,然后还要看实际已经发生了什么。
My point of view on what is healthy for businesses, America, the ecosystem, individuals, and then there's what's already actually happened.
现实是,过去三年里,来自各方的开源模型越来越有竞争力,主要来自中国,但美国和欧洲也肯定有。
The reality is we have over the last three years increasingly competitive open source models from all fronts, Largely China, but definitely also The US and Europe.
最近,像Thinky、Poolside,还有大家期待的Reflection,NVIDIA的模型,Mistral。
Most recently, Thinky Poolside, people waiting for reflection, NVIDIA models, Mistral.
我们会有,而且已经有了来自西方国家的非常强大的开源模型。
We will have very powerful and already do have very powerful open source models from Western countries.
木已成舟,这些模型到处都在用。
The cat is out of the bag and these are in use everywhere.
就算你对实验室没有经济上的看法,只问能力会怎么在经济中扩散,那又怎样?
Even if you have no economic point of view on the labs and you just say, how is the diffusion of capability going to happen in the economy?
在很多情况下,使用前沿提供商的模型太贵、太敏感,或者太慢了。
There are a huge number of instances where it is too expensive, too sensitive, or too slow to use the model from the frontier providers today.
而且我觉得随着我们学会用AI做更多事情,这种情况还会增加,因为实际上成本挺高的。
And I think that's going to increase as we learn how to do more things with AI because it's actually quite expensive.
客观来说,如果能力更普及,你会看到它们被用在更多地方。
It's objectively true that if the capabilities are more democratized, you will see them used in more ways.
我希望看到这种情况发生。
I want to see that happen.
我确实认为,随着模型的发展,不了解它们的安全状况是不负责任的,因为你得划清界限。
I do think that it would be irresponsible not to understand the safety profile of models as they progress because you just draw the line.
我们有公司用前沿模型的能力做防御性网络安全和生物学工作。
We have companies that use frontier model capability for defensive cybersecurity and for biology work.
如果这些用例有效,那显然也应该以类似的方式用于
If it works for those use cases, it obviously also should work in similar ways for
办公用途
the Office Use
或者生物武器、生物安全方面的用途。
cases or the bioweapons, biosecurity use cases.
我们需要正视这个现实,思考还有哪些其他方式来控制这些风险。
We just need to look at that reality and think about what are the other ways in which you control this.
但试图阻止技术进步和开放的态度,
But attempting to stop technological progress and openness around it.
如果在美国限制开源模型的使用,基本上只会限制守法的美国企业,拖慢它们的步伐,或者把利润转移到其他地方,阻止某些用途。
If you did restrict use of open source models in The United States, you'd basically just restrict law abiding American businesses and slow them down or move profits different pockets, prevent certain uses of them.
因为真正的攻击者或那些有恶意用途的人,根本不会受你的限制影响。
Because the actual attackers or people who have adversarial uses of these things are not affected by your restrictions.
你只是在限制自己人。
You're restricting your own people.
我的看法是,应该对前沿模型进行测试和了解。
My view would be there should be testing and understanding of these models at the frontier.
大家都很担心中国模型里会不会有后门之类的行为。
People are very worried about backdoor like behaviors in Chinese models.
实际上该做的就是对这些模型进行非常严格的安全测试。
The thing to do would actually be like have a very rigorous set of safety testing on that.
就是说,我们尽量去搞清楚实际情况,而不是在那儿猜测可能有什么问题,因为目前真正的研究还远远不够。
Like, let's go find out as much as we can instead of talking about how there might be this issue in a speculative way where there's not been nearly enough actual research on it.
就像山姆说的,未来智能会变得非常便宜,几乎可以随便用,这个趋势是挡不住的。
The future where there is broad access to intelligence too cheap to meter, as Sam put it, that is coming.
开源会支撑这个未来。
It will be supported by open source.
企业想要掌控自己的命运,无论是从经济角度还是从能力角度。
Businesses want it to control their own destiny for economics, for capacity.
如果有了这些模型,再加上越来越多的人掌握了微调模型、搭建工具、使用任务这些技能,那经济规模会非常庞大。
If given those models and the increasing democratization of the skills to post train these models, build harnesses, use tasks, the economy is so big.
每个人都有各自的使用场景,这些场景是前沿实验室里的研究人员想象不到的。
Every individual has these use cases that are not going to be imagined by a researcher in a frontier lab.
你无法想象现实的多样性。
You can't imagine the diversity of reality.
即使你信任模型自己去想办法,它们也得先到达那个地步。
Even if you trusted the models to go figure out what to do, they have to get there.
实现这一目标的最佳方式,就像经济中一直存在的那样,是一个由企业构成的生态系统,加上廉价的基础设施。
The best way for that to happen is a ecosystem of businesses as we've always had in the economy, cheap infrastructure.
你有没有担心过,美国历史的另一个版本是,因为我们建了一千个AP一千之类的,能源便宜到几乎不用计量,就像中国现在在核能方面做的那样。
Do you ever worry that an alternate version of US history is that there was energy too cheap to meter because we built a thousand AP one thousands or something, much like China is doing now in nuclear.
然后一系列情况凑巧发生,结果我们就是没能实现那个。
And just a set of circumstances happened such that, like, we just didn't get that.
你有没有担心过,这跟智能的情况类似?
Do you ever worry about that as it relates to intelligence?
看起来我们确实不可避免地会拥有丰富、易得、低成本且有价值的智能。
It does seem inevitable that we're gonna have abundant, accessible, low cost, valuable intelligence.
你能想象一个没有这种智能的世界吗?
Can you imagine a world where we don't?
是的。
Yes.
绝对会。
Absolutely.
而且我也觉得,我很容易想象一个世界,在那里我们无法以竞争性的方式获得这种智能,因为它对经济竞争力和国家安全至关重要。
And I also think I can imagine very easily a world where we don't have that in a competitive way because it is essential to economic competitiveness and national security.
在美国,如果不实现自动化,就没有办法重建我们的工业基础。
There is not a version of the world where we rebuild our industrial base without automation in The United States.
如果我们不引进人才,而我们的劳动力成本又高,还缺乏一些技能,但我们又想生产更多的商品,拥有更有韧性的供应链。
If we don't import people and our people are expensive and we lack some of the skills, but want to produce a lot more goods and have a more resilient supply chain.
这根本说不通。
Just doesn't add up.
谁来生产这些东西?
Who's gonna produce this stuff?
美国人不愿意,也不应该愿意为了每小时13美元去做一份非常不人道的工作。
People in The United States do not want to work and should not want to work for $13 an hour doing a very inhuman job.
我不认为我们保持竞争力是必然的,我觉得我们需要主动做出这个决定。
I don't think it is inevitable that we are competitive, and I think we need to, like, make that decision actively.
我觉得很有可能出现的情况是,人们理性地担心AI对工作的影响,或者反感少数科技公司垄断收益,拒绝接受自己永远处于底层,然后把这种情绪和反资本主义的倾向联系起来,这种思潮可能会拖慢能源、基础设施和工业产能的建设。
The version of it that I think is very possible is that people are rationally afraid of the impact of AI on jobs or dislike the capture of rent by a small number of technology firms, rejecting the idea of being in the permanent underclass and then connecting that to a anti capitalist orientation, that contingent of thought can slow down build of energy and infrastructure and industrial capacity.
最重要的投入之一就是算力。
One of the most important inputs is compute.
如果我们没有算力,自然就没有竞争力,至少也无法独立。
If we don't have it, we're naturally not competitive or we're at least not independent.
我觉得我们接下来会越来越多地讨论算力独立。
I think we're gonna start talking much more about compute independence.
那是个大问题。
That's a big problem.
那关于算力独立,具体是什么意思呢?
So on this point of compute independence, what does that mean?
算力独立还缺哪些环节?
What are the missing pieces of compute independence?
最明显的可能是增加晶圆产能,尤其是在美国增加先进制程的晶圆产能,或者类似这样的措施。
Like, the most obvious one might be more fab capacity, more leading edge fab capacity here in The US or something like this.
上游还有很多环节。
There's all sorts of stuff upstream.
比如有一种特殊的玻璃,非常重要,基本上由一家公司控制,台积电对这种玻璃的供应有垄断地位。
There's particular kinds of glass, very important that's controlled by basically one company that TSMC has like a monopoly on the supply of.
还有所有这些零部件。
There's all these component parts.
但如果你想想算力自主,如果一切都归结于算力,那该怎么办呢?
But if you think about compute independence, like if so much boils down to compute, what's to be done about it?
你是想投资那些解决这个问题的公司吗?
Are you trying to invest in companies that are solving that problem?
问题到底是什么?
What is the problem?
详细说说需要做些什么吧。
Say a bit more about what it'll take.
嗯,如果你从装满GPU的数据中心倒推回去,考虑冷却、供电、训练和推理,以支持各种应用场景。
Well, if you just work backwards from a data center full of GPUs, cooling, powering, training and inference so we can support the use cases.
所有这些投入,实际上看起来很像能源独立之类的事情。
All of those inputs, it actually looks a great deal like energy independence or something like that.
所有这些投入,都存在一个全球供应链。
All those inputs, there is a global supply chain.
我手里还拿着我的台积电马克杯。
I've got my TSMC mug with me.
供应链中有一些环节就像一层很薄的筛子,而且位于不一定稳定或对美国及其盟友可及的地方。
There are parts of that supply chain that are like a very thin sieve in a place that is not necessarily stable or accessible to The US and allies.
一个不同的世界版本,需要大量投资以及国家安全和能源政策,比如雅各布·赫尔伯格正在研究一个叫Paxilica的项目。
A different version of the world that will take a bunch of investment and national security and energy policy is, for example, Jacob Helberg is working on something called Paxilica.
然后就像是,对于供应链的每一个环节,我们能否投资增加产能,并找出独立的路径?
And it was like, okay, for every part of the supply chain, can we invest in more capacity and figure out what the independent paths are?
我不认为这意味着所有东西都必须在美国制造。
I don't think that means it's all got to be created in The United States.
比较优势是真实存在的。
Comparative advantage is real.
但拥有多个来源是每个人都想处于的位置。
But having more than one source is a position that everybody wants to be in.
当我们考虑我们投资的组件时,我们投资了数据中心和机器人领域的劳动力缺口。
When we think about the components that we've invested in, we've invested in the labor gap for data centers and robotics.
我们投资了核能。
We've invested in nuclear energy.
我们投资了替代芯片架构。
We've invested in alternative chip architectures.
我们一直在关注那些基本上是数据中心建设者、太阳能和电池安装商的人。
We keep looking at people who are essentially data center builders, solar and battery installers of some kind.
这部分实际上是产能建设。
Part of this is the actual capacity buildup.
那是一个非常运营性的业务,介于运营、技术和房地产之间。
That's a very operational business, like somewhere between operations, some technology, and real estate.
还有融资。
And financing.
对。
Yeah.
还有融资。
And financing.
没错。
Absolutely.
那可能是最主要的部分。
That's probably the dominant thing.
我们虽然一直在密切关注,但还没有投资这个领域。
We have not invested in it yet despite looking very closely.
我并不反对,但本质上我是个科技投资者。
I'm not opposed to it, but fundamentally, I'm a technology investor.
我想搞清楚人们正在构建的持久产品资产到底是什么。
Like, I wanna understand what it is that is the durable product asset people are building.
在Conviction内部,最大的争论是什么?
What are the biggest debates inside of Conviction?
你们团队真的很有意思。
You've got such an interesting team.
比如你的合伙人是个非常技术型的人,出色的工程师。
Like your partner is a very technical person, amazing engineer.
你们公司的年轻人才带来了非常有趣的视角。
The young talent in your firm brings really interesting perspectives.
所以我想象中会有很多关于重要事情的激烈讨论,等等。
So I'm imagining great lively debates about things that matter, etcetera.
现在最大的争论是什么?
What are the big debates today?
很多,而且我有一个播客叫No Priors。
A lot and I have a podcast called No Priors.
你之前相信的一些东西,特别是作为牧师对市场的看法,现在已经不再成立,这个前提很有意思。
This premise of some of the things you believed, especially about markets as a pastor, like no longer true is an interesting one.
而且我们经常看一些不属于传统软件领域的公司。
And regularly, we look at companies in domains that are not traditional software domains.
甚至不是传统软件领域,而是这个市场到底能不能赚钱。
Not even traditional software domains, but can you make money in this market at all?
投资半导体公司的风投,除了陈立武之外,长期以来都是个非常糟糕的生意。
Venture investing in semis companies, Lip Bu Tan aside, was like a god awful business for the longest time.
回报率
The returns
所有人都这么跟我说。
Everyone told me this.
对。
Yes.
确实非常糟糕。
It was really bad.
比如我们团队的合伙人贝拉,她开始研究一批这样的公司,很明显需求是存在的。
That's like a example of Bella, a partner on our team, started looking at a bunch of these companies, and it's obvious that the demand is there.
现在我觉得我们也得出了和别人一样的结论,那就是如今市场已经不同了。
Now I think we have arrived at the conclusion that others are as well, which is, well, the market is different today.
我们看到对加速器或供应链独立性的需求正在大规模整合,因为大买家也想要这些。
We are seeing consolidated at scale demand for accelerators or even supply chain independence because the big buyers of it want it too.
我们不能都挤在台积电的一条生产线上。
We can't all be stuck on one line at TSMC.
所有这些都非常有价值,也改变了这些公司的风险格局。
All of that is very, very valuable and that changes the risk equation for these companies.
我们一开始对发展方向或值得解决的问题有相当一致的看法。
We start with pretty aligned beliefs about the direction of travel or the problems that are worth working on.
然后很多争论在于,市场对风投支持的公司是否友好。
And then a lot of the debates are like, is the market friendly to a venture backed company or not?
太空领域对风投支持的公司并不友好,但有没有可能呢?
Space is not a friendly market to a venture backed company, but is it possible?
结果分布是否值得下注?
Is the distribution of outcomes worth betting on?
这在太阳能、电池、核能、涡轮机制造、机器人和生物学领域都可能成立。
That could be true in solar and batteries and nuclear, in turbine manufacturing, in robotics and biology.
这些可不是十年前你喜欢的那些软件市场。
These are not your favorite software markets from ten years ago.
每一个都是新的争论点。
Each of them is a new debate.
生物学是个有趣的例子,因为通过实证数据,我现在已经坚定地站在了争论的一方。
Biology is an interesting one where by virtue of seeing the data empirically, I have now strongly moved to one side of the debate.
是哪一方?
What side is that?
你可以通过生物学中的模型创造并获取巨大的价值。
You can create and capture enormous value with models in biology.
而且生物学中可能会有不同的AI软件。
And there could be different AI software in biology.
我们是一家名为Chai Discovery的公司的首个投资方。
We're the first check-in a company called Chai Discovery.
Chai正在与多家全球前十的制药公司合作,以非常实质性的方式加速研发流程的某些环节。
And Chai is working with a number of top 10 pharma companies in really significant ways to accelerate some part of the r and d process.
我们投资这家公司时的传统看法是——那时我已经研究各种计算生物学公司五年多了。
The conventional wisdom when we invest in this company and I've been looking at computational biology companies of different sorts for five plus years at that point.
传统观点认为,在生物技术或服务制药行业赚钱的唯一途径是研发药物,然后达成biobucks交易,再决定你愿意承担多大的风险。
The conventional wisdom was the only way you make money in biotech or serving pharma is by make a drug and then get biobucks deals and then decide how far along that risk path you wanna take.
这对公司的资本结构意味着什么呢?
And what that means for the capital structure of the company is, okay.
那些伟大的传统生物技术公司会找到这些主要研究者。
The great traditional biotech firms find these principal investigators.
他们拥有公司40%的股份,然后他们把这些东西组装起来,变成候选药物。
They own 40% of the company, and they're kinda assembling these things, turning them into candidates.
但大多数都不成功。
But most of it doesn't work.
所以这就像是一种非常不同的结果分布、结构和投资企业的方式。
So it's just like a very different distribution of outcomes and structure and way to invest in businesses.
那些不懂软件的投资者会说,你不可能靠向制药公司卖软件赚钱,也不可能在制药行业建立平台业务。
Dumb software investors, you can't make money selling software to pharma or build platform businesses in pharma.
争论的焦点是,模型的出现会不会改变这一点?
The debate is, does it change with models?
我现在非常肯定,会的。
I'm a strong yes now.
不过,监管方面的问题还有待解决。
We still have a question to solve on regulatory.
物理世界的速度限制和安全性问题不是那么容易克服的,但我认为我们将会看到治愈方法的巨大加速。
There's the speed of the physical world and safety is not something you can overcome easily, But I think we should see a massive acceleration in cures.
是什么让你改变了看法?
What flipped that for you?
你从“我们还不清楚”中看到了什么证据?
What evidence did you see from we don't know yet?
我们在还不清楚的时候就已经投资了。
We invested when we didn't know yet.
这也是冒险的一部分乐趣。
That's part of the fun adventure.
我们当时觉得,这是有可能的。
We were like, it is possible.
对。
Yeah.
值得一试。
It is worth trying.
确实发生了。
Happened.
对。
Yeah.
这里没有什么天才。
There's no genius here.
那是一份一千万美元的合同。
That's a $10,000,000 contract.
另一部分其实就是,你去跟客户那边的科学家或者某个工具的主要使用者聊聊。
The other piece is actually you just talk to the scientist at the customer or somebody who leads a User of
工具的使用者。
the tool.
对。
Yeah.
就是那个工具的使用者。
The user of the tool.
或者你也可以看到,现在也有一些终端用户直接采用的产品,比如产品驱动增长的工具,在这个领域里也在发挥作用。
Or you see there are also end user adopted tools, product led growth tools that are working in the space.
客户自己知道这东西有没有价值。
Well, the customer knows if it's valuable or not.
这个行业的顿悟时刻,就是当我们看到一个新适应症或者新药,它的发展轨迹明显被AI改变了。
The light bulb moment for the industry is when we will have a new indication or a new drug that clearly the trajectory of the thing was changed, created by AI.
我们应该会看到一波巨大的投资浪潮,这也是应该的,但这一天一定会来。
We should see a huge wave of investment and rightfully so, but it's going to happen.
我真的对制药和整个医疗行业接受速度之快感到非常惊讶,他们都说,是的,这会带来改变,而且我们真的认为它会改变这个行业。
I'm, like, very impressed by the speed with which pharma and health care overall has said, yes, this is gonna make a difference, and we actually think it's gonna change the business.
你为什么称之为信念?
Why do you call it conviction?
这是一种理想化的说法。
It's aspirational.
最传统的早期投资方式是,你早期投资一家公司,持有大量股份,从不卖出,然后一直陪伴这家公司,直到它成功、被收购或者倒闭。
The most traditional form of early stage investing is you start early with a company, you have a significant position, you never sell the position, and then you work on the company until it works or is sold or dies.
这种方式有很好的利益一致性和简单性。
There's wonderful alignment and simplicity to that.
迈克和我都有幸参与过一些公司的成长历程,这些公司一开始并不顺利,或者起初并不明显。
Mike and I have both had the benefit of being part of the journey for some companies where it took a minute to begin to work or it's, like, not obvious at the beginning.
Sigma、Notion、Rippling。
Sigma, notion, rippling.
你不会指望一家公司花四五年时间才找到方向,然后才去投资它。
You wouldn't bet on a company hoping that it's gonna take four or five years to, like, find the thing.
我觉得每个人都是自己经历的产物,包括投资经历。
I think everybody is a product of their own experiences, including investing experiences.
在Base Ten的头几年,情况也很不明朗。
The first couple years at base ten were, like, very non obvious as well.
能够持有一种市场上并不明显的观点,可能是因为市场原因,也可能是因为人们的背景,或者其他什么原因,然后暂时放下疑虑,带着完全的信念去行动,直到它成真或破灭。
The ability to take a point of view that is not obvious in the market because the market or because of people's backgrounds, whatever reason, and then just suspend doubt and act with full belief until it's true or not.
这是与创业者合作的好方式。
That's a great way to be a partner to somebody building a business.
我正努力建立一种伙伴关系,我深信这是团队运动。
I am trying to build a partnership and I deeply believe this is a team sport.
我跟一个经营另一家投资公司的朋友聊过,他说他们没有对投资项目的个人所有权。
I was talking to a friend who runs another investing firm where he is like, we don't have individual ownership of our investments.
我觉得这对我来说毫无意义。
I'm like, that is nonsense to me.
怎么能那样经营一家公司呢?
How could you run a business that way?
因为总得有人来拍板。
Because somebody has to own the decision.
我不知道这样对不对,但除了让帕特里克来做决定,我想不出别的投资方式。
I don't know if this is right or wrong, but I don't know any other way to invest by saying, Patrick, you must make the decision.
你信不信?
Do you believe?
说服我们。
Convince us.
我们怎么帮你做这个决定?
How can we help you make that decision?
关于冒险,你学到了什么?
What have you learned about risk taking?
听起来,在信念的背后,往往需要某种信仰的飞跃。
Behind conviction, it sounds like there is often a leap of faith of some sort.
显然,如果你什么都知道,一切都显而易见,那这些早就被市场定价了,也就没有回报机会了。
Obviously, if you knew everything and it was obvious, that would be priced in and there'd be no return opportunity.
是不是总得有某种信念的飞跃?
Is there always a leap of faith?
这算不算另一种形式的风险承担?
Is that risk taking by another name?
和我在Founderspond的好朋友们不同,我没有刻意反其道而行的本能,但我确实认为,决定自己的想法、不过分在意别人的看法,这是非常根本的。
Unlike my good friends at Founderspond, I don't have an instinct to be contrarian, but I do think it is so fundamental to decide what you think and not worry too much about what other people think.
别人指的是那个时代的主流叙事,或者生态系统中那些真正重要的参与者所宣称的各种观点。
Other people is the dominant narratives of the period or even what different players in the ecosystem that are really important declare one way or another.
我觉得你只需要找到真相。
I think you just need to find the truth.
如果我把这和风险承担联系起来,那就是当你找到真相,而它的定价是错误的,并且你坚持这个看法,那你就处于有利位置。
The way I would relate that to risk taking is if you find the truth and it is wrongly priced and you hold on to that, you're in a good position.
你需要的是不对称的信息,以及在别人还没转变观点时坚持己见的信心。
You want asymmetric information and then the confidence to hold the opinion when other people haven't come around to it yet.
我花了很多心思去思考,如何确保我们掌握的信息比别人更好,然后保护自己免受噪音的干扰。
I think a lot about how to make sure we have the information that is better than other people's and then protect ourselves from noise.
再详细一点说说这个。
Describe that in one more level of detail.
这个问题问得很好,就像是在问今天的信念是什么样的。
That's a great way of asking, like, what conviction looks like today.
你正在构建那个框架。
You're building that shell.
要做好这两件事,既要掌握真相又要避免噪音,关键是什么?
What are the keys to doing those two things well, both having the truth and protecting yourself from the noise?
我喜欢花时间向那些正在推动事情发生的人学习,比如我们投资组合里的创始人,或者那些在我们投资组合之外做着惊人事情的人,他们做的事情让我感到惊喜,或者推动了他们的前沿,或者有非常聪明的信念,而我没有。
I like wanna spend my time when I'm learning about the world from somebody who is making it happen, our portfolio founders or the many founders who are doing amazing things outside of portfolio, who are doing something that surprises me or advances their frontier or really smart beliefs something I don't.
这可以分为三类。
There's three different categories.
我给你举个例子。
And I'll give you an example.
Suno的Mikey Schulman正在做音乐生成,打造一个很棒的业务。
Mikey Schulman at Suno is building an amazing business doing music generation.
真是丢脸。
Shame on me.
我认识Mikey,我们共同的一个朋友是投资人,他让我投资,我傻乎乎地拒绝了。
I knew Mikey, a mutual friend of ours who's an investor asked me to invest and I stupidly said no.
我当时就想,哦,我觉得没多少人想创作音乐吧。
But I was just like, oh, I don't think that many people want to make music.
我自己也做音乐。
I make music.
但能把它变成一个社交网络吗?
But can you turn it into a social network?
会有多少消费量呢?
How much consumption is there gonna be?
很多疑问。
A lot of questions.
我的直觉就是错了。
My intuition is just wrong.
其实我确实有些判断错了,因为我低估了很多AI工具在表达、娱乐和创作方面的潜力。
It's been actually somewhat wrong because I have underestimated the amount of expression or entertainment and creation for a lot of AI tools.
通过和Mikey聊他的业务以及大家在做的事情,我学到了一些东西。
I've learned something here by talking to Mikey about his business and what people are trying to do.
所以,如果有创始人创办的公司正在创造一种你不理解的行为,或者有人在研究一个有趣的方向,或者有企业说‘这是我们的AI计划’,这些都很有教育意义。
So if it is founders who have companies that are creating a behavior you don't understand, somebody working on research and an interesting direction, businesses that are like, here's my plan for AI.
所有这些都非常有启发性。
All that is super educational.
我觉得有时候那种循环逻辑,比如‘大家对大实验室的策略怎么看,应用怎么才能活下来’,其实对你的决策帮助不大。
I think the circular logic sometimes of what do people believe about the big lab strategy today, How can any of the applications live?
这对你做决定其实没什么指导意义。
It's actually not that instructive for your decision making.
我的想法是,任何组织都有几个关键优先事项。
The way I think of it is any organization has a couple of key priorities.
假设OpenAI、Anthropic和DeepMind的优先事项是以安全的方式实现AGI或ASI,同时获取大量利润。
Let's assume the priority for OpenAI and Anthropic and DeepMind is AGI or ASI in a safe way where they capture a lot of profit.
这些目标往上推,大概就是ChatGPT、广告、编程这些。
The priorities that ladder into that probably look like chat GPT, ads, coding.
之后可能还会有扩展。
Maybe there's an expansion after that.
比如协同工作,让不同类型的用户能完成更复杂的任务,用更多的界面。
Cowork, the ability to get different types of users to do richer tasks and more interfaces.
我觉得你得看这些努力的实际竞争力,合理的范围,然后跟咱们各自的公司或者正在看的机会对比一下。
I think you have to judge the actual competitiveness of any of those efforts, the reasonable scope of them, and then look at them relative to each of our companies or opportunities that we're looking at.
想出一个宏大的战略框架,比如哪一层会赢,我觉得对我没什么用。
Coming up with some grand strategic framework for, like, what layer is gonna win here, I think is not useful to me.
我觉得人们花太多精力在思考这些上,而我想把精力花在弄清楚如果我们只走了1%,剩下的99%的扩散路径是什么。
And I feel like people spend so much of their investing energy thinking about versus I wanna spend my energy figuring out if we're 1% of the way in, what is the next 99% of diffusion?
这就是我们努力的方向。
That's where we try to direct our energy.
为了好玩,在我们快结束的时候,这纯粹是个假设性问题,更多是为了好玩,而不是真的预测。
For fun, as we wind down here, understand this is like a purely speculative question and it's meant more fun than raw prediction.
基于你身边那些了不起的人、研究社区、像周日创始人这样的创业者,综合来看,事情发展得很快。你觉得一年后有哪些事情会成真?
What are some things you think are true a year from now based on all these incredible people that you're close with, the research community, the entrepreneurs like the Sunday founders, you add it all up, things are moving fast.
一年是很长的时间,现在就像狗年倒过来算一样。
A year is a long time and it's like reverse dog years now.
你觉得一年后科技世界会有什么显著的不同?
What do you think is notably different about the world of technology a year from now?
我希望一年后,我们能看到杰明悖论在实践中体现,因为我们的代理和产品能在我们生活的各个领域更有效地处理更多琐碎的事情。
I'm hopeful that a year from now, we see Jemin's paradox in practice as we have agents and products that do more of the mundane more effectively in all the domains of our lives.
这应该看起来像软件工程领域已经发生的转变。
It should look like the transformation that has happened in software engineering.
有些公司,
You have companies.
我认识一些公司,他们说,我们就是进展快多了。
I have companies where they're like, we're just going way faster.
我预计类似的情况也会发生。
I expect that some analogy like that will happen
其他地方也是。
Forever else.
对,到处都一样。
Everywhere else.
在我们投资的公司里也能看到这种情况。比如有一家我们投资的公司,市场部基本上就一个人。
And we see it in our companies where I'm thinking about in one of our portfolio companies, the marketing department is like a person in the house.
这家公司服务很多客户。
This is a company that serves lots of customers.
他们需要做一些很传统的事情,比如销售支持内容。
They need to do very traditional things, sales enablement content.
结果呢,负责市场的那个人想给自己创造更多杠杆。
What happened was the guy in charge of marketing is interested in creating leverage for himself.
他就说,我给我们公司搞了一个自主运作的市场部。
And he's like, I made an autonomous marketing department for us, the company.
在每个职能里,随着你学得更快,少做那些琐碎的事,你总会想办法重新利用那些省下来的时间。
In every function as you learn faster, do less of the mundane, you will repurpose that time somehow.
你现在用AI效率更高了,是不是工作就少了?
Do you work less now that you are more productive with AI?
对。
Yeah.
我工作更多了。
I work more.
我觉得这就是黄仁勋的核心智慧,那就是我们都会更有工作可做。
And I think this is like a core wisdom of Jensen's, which is we're all gonna be more employed.
我们需要确保人们能获得使用这些工具的机会和培训,这样才能实现这一点。
And we need to make sure that people are given access and education to the tooling that will allow that to happen.
你做的这个东西真是太棒了。
Well, what you've built is incredible.
通过Colossus这边,我们很喜欢了解你的整个领域。
We've loved through the Colossus side getting to know your whole world.
它非常独特。
It's so distinctive.
你就是一个很好的例子,说明优秀永远有空间。
You are a great example that there's always room for great.
意思是,当你创办Conviction的时候,早期投资公司已经很多了。
Meaning, there's plenty of early stage investment firms when you started Conviction.
但四年过去了,我们还是走到了今天。
And yet here we are four years later or whatever.
如果你问问和你共事过的人,你确实给他们的生活带来了很大的改变。
And if you ask the people you've worked with, you've made a real huge difference in their lives.
优秀永远有空间。
There's just always room for great.
我觉得这是一个很棒的教训,尤其是因为我喜欢你描述早期融资的方式,不是说我们在每个环节都与众不同。
I think that's like a great awesome lesson, especially because I love how you described the early pitch was not like, here's how we're differentiated every level of the funnel.
我们就是直接冲上去干。
We're just gonna run at this thing.
到最后,我真的很沮丧。
By the end, I got so frustrated.
我当时就想,这拼的就是执行力。
I was just like, it's an execution game.
完全同意。
Totally.
我问每个人同样一个传统的收尾问题。
I ask everyone the same traditional closing question.
有人对你做过的最善良的事是什么?
What is the kindest thing that anyone's ever done for you?
我喜欢这个问题。
I love this question.
我想给一个综合性的回答。
I'm gonna give like a collective answer.
我觉得硅谷有很多非常成功的人,他们一旦和你聊起来,就很少在意你的背景出身。
I think there are so many people who are extraordinarily accomplished in Silicon Valley who care very little for pedigree as soon as they have conversation with you.
他们会说,也许你能帮我,或者你有个有趣的想法,又或者我只是觉得你很有潜力。
And they're like, maybe you can help me or you have an interesting idea or maybe I just think you're promising.
他们愿意投入一段关系或一个人身上的主要因素,就是他们对这个想法和这个人的评估。
And the dominant factor in their own willingness to invest in a relationship or a person is just their assessment of the idea in the person.
我觉得这太棒了。
I think that's amazing.
大多数生态系统可不是这样的。
That is not how most ecosystems work.
所以,像Ashim Chandni、Aneel Bustry、Joseph Ann Sonali,还有在Greylock雇佣我的Reid Hoffman,我23岁就开始了。
And so Ashim Chandni and Aneel Bustry and Joseph Ann Sonali and Reid Hoffman who hired me at Greylock, I started when I was 23.
人们喜欢嘲笑年轻的VC,说他们是生态系统上的藤壶。
People love to make fun of young VCs where they're like, what a barnacle on the ecosystem.
这对创业者来说是很糟糕的经历。
It's a terrible experience for entrepreneurs.
他们什么都不懂。
They don't know anything.
他们却试图给别人建议。
They're trying to advise people.
谁给这小孩钱的?
Who gave this kid money?
然后我就想,首先,我当时的工作就是帮助别人成功。
And I'm like, well, one, my job was just to make other people successful at the time.
你可以把任何工作中的任何任务,通过模仿和第一性原理思考,努力把它做好。
You can take any task in any job and just try to be great at a task with mimicry and first principles thinking.
我们公司确实会招一些职业生涯早期的人,但我真的觉得,天哪,谢谢你愿意冒险相信一个陌生人,还花时间教我怎么做投资人。
We hire earlier career people at my firm, but I do think, oh my goodness, thank you for taking a shot on some random person and then investing the time to like teach me how to be an investor.
我觉得在我创办公司时,有几个人给过我建议,他们可能觉得这根本不算什么。
I think there were a few people who gave me advice starting the firm who I think they would think of this as entirely trivial.
我只是给你我的看法而已。
I'm just giving you my opinion.
但Ravi Gupta,他现在是Ithaca这家新公司的联席CEO,还有Dylan Field、Elena Nadolinski,以及John Lilly,他是我多年的合伙人和朋友。
But Ravi Gupta who is now co CEO of a new thing called Ithaca, Dylan Field and Elena Nadolinski, John Lilly who's been a longtime partner and friend.
有几个人就是跟我说,你肯定能做到的。
There are a few folks who were just like, you can definitely do it.
无论如何我都会去做,但有那些相信我能做出成绩的人的鼓励,包括我们最早的一些投资人,我会永远感激那些愿意和我一起冒险的人。
I was gonna do it either way, but having the encouragement of people who believed that there was room to be great and including some of our first LPs, I will be forever grateful to, I guess, the people who took risk with me.
世界靠信任运转,这很美——在没有证据的情况下相信,仍然对某人的能力抱有信念。
It's beautiful the world runs on faith, belief without evidence yet, and still conviction in someone's ability to do something.
挺酷的。
Pretty cool.
这是对人的信任。
It's faith in people.
我们聊了很多关于人们的想法和我们对他们看法如何交织在一起的话题。
We talked a lot about how people's ideas and our opinions of them are intertwined.
但我觉得这很美好,因为你不必拥有任何特别的优势就能有一个想法。
But I think that's a beautiful thing because you don't need any particular advantage to have an idea.
人们会评估这些想法并信任我们,我感激不尽。
The fact that folks will evaluate that and put faith in us, I could not be more grateful.
通过观察你的运作和与你交谈,我学到了很多。
I've learned a lot watching you operate and talking to you.
这真的很有意思。
This has been really fun.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
谢谢。
Thanks.
如果你喜欢这一集,请访问 colossus.com。
If you enjoyed this episode, visit colossus.com.
你会找到这个播客的每一集,还有手工编辑的文稿。
You'll find every episode of this podcast complete with hand edited transcripts.
你还可以订阅 Colossus,我们的季度印刷版、数字版和私人音频出版物,里面包含我们最欣赏的创始人、投资者和公司的深度介绍。
You can also subscribe to Colossus, our quarterly print, digital, and private audio publication featuring in-depth profiles of the founders, investors, and companies that we admire most.
更多信息请访问 colossus.com/subscribe。
Learn more at colossus.com/subscribe.
你知道小优势是如何随时间累积的吗?
You know how small advantages compound over time?
这在投资领域如此,在经营公司方面也同样如此。
That's true in investing and just as true in how you run your company.
你的支出体系就是你的资本配置策略。
Your spending system is your capital allocation strategy.
Ramp 让这一切默认变得更智能。
Ramp makes it smarter by default.
更好的数据,更好的决策,长期来看更好的经济效益。
Better data, better decisions, better economics over time.
详情请访问 ramp.com/invest。
See how at ramp.com/invest.
随着你的业务增长,Vanta 会与你一同扩展,自动化合规流程,并为安全和风险提供单一事实来源。
As your business grows, Vanta scales with you, automating compliance and giving you a single source of truth for security and risk.
更多信息请访问 vanta.com/invest。
Learn more at vanta.com/invest.
从 OpenAI 到 Cursor 再到 Perplexity,最优秀的 AI 和软件公司都使用 WorkOS,在一夜之间实现企业级就绪,而不是耗时数月。
The best AI and software companies from OpenAI to Cursor to Perplexity use WorkOS to become enterprise ready overnight, not in months.
访问workos.com,跳过那些不讨好的基础设施工作,专注于你的产品。
Visit workos.com to skip the unglamorous infrastructure work and focus on your product.
Ridgeline正在重新定义资产管理技术,它更像一个真正的合作伙伴,而不只是软件供应商。
Ridgeline is redefining asset management technology as a true partner, not just a software vendor.
他们帮助公司实现了五倍的增长,促进了更快的成长、更智能的运营和竞争优势。
They've helped firms 5x in scale, enabling faster growth, smarter operations, and a competitive edge.
访问ridgelineapps.com,看看他们能为你的公司带来什么。
Visit ridgelineapps.com to see what they can unlock for your firm.
每家投资公司都是独一无二的,通用AI并不理解你的流程。
Every investment firm is unique and generic AI doesn't understand your process.
Rogo理解。
Rogo does.
这是一个专为华尔街打造的AI平台,连接你的数据,理解你的流程,并产生真正的成果。
It's an AI platform built specifically for Wall Street, connected to your data, understanding your process, and producing real outputs.
去rogo.ai/invest看看吧。
Check them out at rogo.ai/invest.
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