Tobi Lütke - 打造创新之岛 - [像最优秀的人一样投资，第394集]

在这种情况下，发生变化的那件事，背后有几条关键信息。

In this case, the thing that changed, there's a couple of pieces of information on it.

我就不细说了，但其中最重要的一点，其实就是自动化的AI。

I'm not going get into all the details, but one large thing was actually just auto AI.

听好了，注意力很重要。

Look, attention is important.

我们之前聊过电子游戏的类比吧。

I think we talked about video game analogies.

你要是玩过很多像《星际争霸》这样的好游戏，就会明白，最稀缺的资源根本不是矿石和瓦斯，而是注意力。

One thing you learn when you play a lot of good something like Starcraft, your most limited resource is not actually the minerals and the vast green gas, it's actually attention.

你赢比赛，靠的是牵制住对方的注意力。

You win the game by tapping attention of the other person.

所以，管理注意力是最关键的技能之一。

So attention management is one of the most important skills.

那时候，大环境还算稳定。

We were in fairly stable times.

那时候事情没那么快变。

Things weren't changing so much.

以前做满足型工作特别有价值，但现在我们得彻底转型，需要完全不同的技能。

And building for fulfillment work was super valuable, but it's a big pivot for us with completely different skill sets.

我当时全神贯注地培养那些能让我成为好领导——也包括避免当坏领导——的能力。

And my attention was extremely focused on building the skills that would make me a good leader of also bad.

AI一出现，我就很清楚，这领域也得快速重塑。

The moment AI came, it was very clear that this is also fast to be reinvented.

首先，这本来就在我的专长范围内。

Well, first of all, that's already in my wheelhouse.

所以这很有帮助。

So that's useful.

其次，那些满足型工作都不重要了。

And then second, none of fulfillment stuff matters.

如果Shopify只是完美解决了AI时代之前的问题，那这生意就没前途了。

If Shopify ends up being the perfect solution to the types of problems that we had in the days before AI, it's like, that's not a good business.

所以正因为这样，我觉得挺好。

So because of that, I'm like, cool.

咱们就往已经投入的领域深挖，别去碰周边的领域。

Let's go deeper into the field that we already committed ourselves to and not go into the adjacency.

这个决定一敲定，我就开玩笑说，我信奉‘饱和海绵式’变革管理——这词儿可不是我发明的。

And once that decision is made, my joking label for this is that I believe in the saturated sponge school of change management, which is not a school I made it up.

就是打个比方：把海绵放进一桶水里，吸满之后，它就再也吸不进更多水了。

It just comes from the analogy that if you put a sponge into a bucket of water, afterwards it's so full, it cannot absorb more water.

所以之后你再怎么往下按，它也不会多吸一滴。

And therefore, it doesn't matter how much you submerge it after the point.

我觉得变革管理最好的方式就是一次性把海绵吸满，把所有变化一次性到位。

So I think change management is best done as just saturate the sponge, load up all change in one go.

因为人当然会抵触，但抵触也超不过那个饱和点。

Because people will mind, but they can't mind more than the saturation point.

所以超过这个点之后，再加任何变化，他们就无所谓了。

So all other change up past this point is free.

所以干脆就一次性做完吧。

So might as well do it.

我觉得那种拖拖拉拉、长时间慢慢推进一大堆改变的做法，根本违背人的心理规律。

I think these long drawn out go and just do whole lot of stuff over a long period of time are incredibly incompatible with human psyche.

表面上看可能执行起来省事，但我认为这对人反而有害。

It might seem more convenient in implementation, but I think it's bad for us.

我想知道，在这件事上，艺术和科学是怎么融合的。

I'm curious how the art and the science blend together in this.

作为创始人，你当然一直主导着企业的艺术层面——最初的产品，以及你心目中世界该有的样子。

As the founder, obviously, you have directed the art of the business, the original product, how the world should be that it's not.

你一直在持续地做这件事。

You keep doing that on an ongoing basis.

但现在你已经拥有了一家庞大的企业。

But now you've got a huge business.

你身边显然有一支非常出色的管理团队，我尤其想了解你和首席财务官的互动，比如：我知道自己知道什么，知道方向可以往哪儿走，也清楚我们该考虑哪些事。

It seems like you've got a very talented executive team, and I'm maybe even especially interested in your engagements with your CFO and thinking about, I know all the things I know and the directions this could go and what I think we should consider.

那你会不会坐下来，和那些更擅长数据分析、科学测算的人一起合作，共同做决定？

Do you then sit down and work with someone that's maybe more on the science on the number side of the business to learn and make these decisions together?

我的CFO杰夫，九年前我们一起把公司上市的时候就共事过。

My CFO, Jeff, is someone I've worked with intensely nine years ago when we took a company public.

那时候他负责财务这边，现在我们每天都能一起工作，这真是太棒了。

He was on the mom's standing side, and now we get to work together every day, which is awesome.

你看，数字、科学——你这么叫的——它们就是事实。

And look, the numbers, the science, as you call it, they are the facts.

它们是趋势图上最清晰、最不容置疑的那些点。

They are the most bold faced points on the graph paper of trend lines.

因为我们真正确定的其实就这些，其他的一切都取决于模型和经验判断。

Because most we know for sure everything else is as good as the model and heuristics.

所以我们经常讨论这些问题。

So I think we talk a lot about these things.

当然，我们在调整物流网络的时候讨论得尤其多，因为得仔细考虑外界会怎么看待这些变化。

Obviously, we talked a lot around the times that we were making changes to the fulfillment network because there's such consideration about how is this perceived.

但归根结底，短期总会有点阵痛。

But I just think at the end of the day, short term pain.

如果我们知道这么做更好，那就干吧。

If we know it's better, let's go.

我不会过分纠结这些细节。

I don't over index on these things.

我只想弄清楚别人是怎么想的，好有针对性地回应他们的顾虑。

I just want to understand how people think about it so I can address the concerns.

我本人也坦白一下。

And then I personally admit this.

我并不总是能记住所有数字，哪怕是关键的那些。

I don't always have a full recall of all the numbers, even the top line numbers.

但我清楚整体的趋势。

But I know the trend lines.

所以有时候有人问我具体的财务问题，我会回到之前看过的数据点，重新推演一遍，结果通常都对得上。

So sometimes when someone asks me a very specific question about finances, I will go back to a checkpoint where I looked at it and will run it forward, and I'll be right about it.

但我一整天并不会一直盯着那些具体数字。

But I'm not in the factual numbers all day long.

因为很多情况下，我是靠机器学习模型的预测系统这些工具来获取更准确的趋势信息的。

Because a lot of it is just I get better predictive information from a lot of machine learning model forecast systems and so on.

这其实挺有意思的。

That's sort of an interesting thing.

我们有个高管团队。

We have an executive team.

我们每周一都会聚在一起，这一点非常重要。

We come together every Monday, and this is important.

在Shopify，数据和财务团队合作得非常紧密，这对我来说特别关键，因为我觉得很多CEO都陷入了一种割裂的状态——数据只管预测，财务只管GAAP。

Data and finance at Shopify work super closely together, and that was really important to me because I think many CEOs live in a split brain problem world where data is just forecasting and finance is just GAAP.

我觉得GAAP会计本质上就是给华尔街看的一个仪表盘，基于企业的实际运营数据。

And I think GAAP accounting is basically a dashboard for Wall Street on top of the facts of a business.

我希望这两者能真正紧密衔接，否则事情很容易出问题。

And I want those things to actually be extremely connected because otherwise things go very poorly.

你花最多时间相处的人，决定了你如何看待这家企业。

And then who do you spend more time with ends up being how you think about the business.

如果这两者不一致，问题就会接踵而至。

And if those things are not congruent, then bad things happen.

我觉得这一点在这家公司里做得特别好。

So I think that's something that's gone really, really well in this company.

把Shopify看作是经由你和早期团队孕育出来、如今独立成长、但你依然在掌舵的实体，挺有意思的。

It's fun to think about Shopify the business as this thing that came through you and your early team and has grown up on its own, exists independently, but you still steer and control.

就像骑手和大象的关系吧。

It's like the rider and the elephant or something.

如果回看两年前我们上一次对话时的情景——那时候谈的是履约网络之类的——再对比今天AI全面兴起、业务格局大变的样子，你觉得这个‘大象’的本质、它在做什么、它的使命、核心特征，到底发生了哪些根本性的变化？

I'm curious if you think back two and a half years to our last conversation, fulfillment network, etcetera, and then forward to today with AI and everything going on and the way the business looks, how you would describe the difference in fundamental nature of the elephant, of the thing itself, of what it does, of what it's meant to do, of its key characteristics, and how, if at all, that has changed in this two and a half year period?

我觉得现在这家公司自信多了。

I think it's a much more self confident company.

而且现在这家公司更有张力了。

It's a much more tension company.

事实上，从很多方面来看，现在的状态反而更像五年前。

And in fact, it's a lot more similar to five years ago in a lot of ways.

你可能还记得，我们上市得特别早，2015年估值就到了十五亿美元。

You might remember, we went public very early, billion and half valuation in 2015.

我记得第一次交易时估值是十七亿。

I think billion seven first trade.

从那时到现在，差距可太大了。

So that's a very far distance here.

即便那时候，我们从斯特林银行融到的钱也基本都用完了。

And even then, I think we basically had all the money that we raised from financing around Sterling Bank at that time.

Shopify 这家公司，每一分钱都要花在刀刃上。

Shopify is just a company that makes every dollar count.

就是要讲究运营效率，精打细算，合理使用资本。

It's like being operationally efficient, being efficient with money, being efficient with capital.

就像公司有一套筛选机制，专门剔除一切浪费。

It's like out of a fitness function of a company, things are tested for most waste.

这真的让人感觉特别痛苦，实实在在的痛。

It's like physically painful in a very real way.

我觉得零利率时期，让企业的这些特质反而成了负担。

I think the zero interest rates periods, really, they made all these characteristics of the business basically a liability.

因为你没法跟那些拿着免费资金大肆挥霍的人竞争。

Because you cannot compete with everyone respending on free money.

如果你一心要把每一分钱都花在刀刃上，很容易就被市场淘汰。

If you're trying to make every dollar count, you can be swamped out of the market.

所以我只好装作不在乎这些事，但回头一看，这其实并不明智。

So I had to laugh not caring about this stuff for a while, and I think that just was not great.

如果我能穿越时空，我一定会说：干脆别动，就让腾讯一直撑下去。

If I had a time machine, I would just, hey, let's keep Tencent through the time period.

但说实话，这种策略在那个时期根本行不通，当时所有人都被卷进去了。

But like, I don't think this was actually a valid play for this period, and this is how everyone got swapped up in this time.

而且我还跟别人说，我打算退出了。

Also, I just told people I was to expose.

说实话，我最近一直在想岛屿，特别是遗传上的孤岛，就像达尔文乘着小猎犬号航行时发现那些不一样的雀鸟，然后意识到：这些其实都是同一种鸟，从而提出了进化论。

Honestly, like I've been thinking a lot about islands, genetic islands, like Darwin and his Voyage of a Beagle finding finches which are different, and saying, hey, those are the same finches, and therefore coming up with a theory of evolution.

遗传孤岛真的特别重要。

Genetic islands are really important.

我现在只是从遗传学跳到了文化传播学上。

I'm just making the leap here from genetics to memetics.

当然，我不是第一个这么想的人。

Obviously, not the first person to do this.

文化传播的机制完全是一样的。

Memetics works exactly the same.

观念的传播速度，远比基因的传递快得多。

The exchange of idea just happens faster than the exchange of DNA.

现在世界上已经没剩下多少真正的孤岛了。

There are not many islands in the world anymore.

大陆实在太庞大了。

Mainland is really big.

互联网把我们都连在了一起。

The internet has connected us all.

但创新来自孤岛。

But innovation comes from islands.

差异也来自孤岛。

Difference comes from islands.

亲身体验日本和其他地方很不一样，因为它是个岛国。

Literally visiting Japan is different than other places because it's an island.

水和语言这些天然屏障反而成了保护。

Has enlightened barriers such as water and language.

所以，岛上的文化能保持独特，这在主流社会里几乎不可能做到。

And therefore, can maintain difference in a way that is very hard to do if you're part of a mainstream.

主流思维特别容易跟风。

Mainstream thinking is incredibly fashion oriented.

有时候是这种潮流，有时候是那种潮流。

Sometimes it's fashion of this sort, sometimes fashion of this sort.

我觉得这些美学甚至影响了企业的打造方式。

And I think that these aesthetics even ended up impacting company building.

我认为我的体会是，Shopify 并没有靠语言或地理隔离，来做出与当下主流想法截然不同的决策。

And I think my takeaway is Shopify did not have language or water as enough to be able to make decisions that are significantly different from the ideas that are just floating around in the mainstream of this time.

我觉得专注力需要更多这样的孤岛。

I think focus depends on more islands.

我真的这么认为。

I really do.

Shopify 基于一种叫 Ruby 的编程语言，它源自日本。

Shopify is based on a programming language called Ruby, which hails from Japan.

我最近第一次有机会和 Ruby 的创造者待了一段时间。

And I recently got to spend a little bit of time with creator of Ruby for the first time.

这很了不起，因为这种语言和其他语言很不一样。

And it is remarkable because that language is different from other language.

它的设计目标完全不一样。

Optimized for totally different things.

Ruby 的设计是为了让程序员感到开心。

Ruby optimizes for programmer happiness.

它特意为语言的使用者考虑了很多细节，比如‘诗意模式’，让你可以省略括号和分号。

It implements the great pains to the implementers of a language, something called poetry mode, which allows you just, like, omit brackets here and semicolons.

真的，根本不需要那些符号。

Like, you just don't need them.

系统里很多设计，就是为了让工程师用得舒服。

The system does stuff just to make engineers happy.

这其实是一种审美选择。

That's an aesthetic.

这是三十一年前，那位先生刚开始设计这门语言时做出的决定，他这一生都在用这种方式塑造它。

That's a decision that mister made thirty one years ago when he started this language and has been spending his entire life affecting this language in his way.

这完全是他的风格。

It's his.

所有决定都由他来做。

He makes all decisions.

是的。

Yes.

虽然很多人帮过他，但就像所有优秀的开源软件一样，它更像是一个独自奉献、为所有人带来礼物的孤岛。

Lots of people were helping him, but he like all good open source software, it's an island that creates gifts for everyone.

它并不属于主流的主流。

It is not part of a main mainstream.

他从不强迫任何人使用它，但用过的人全都爱不释手。

He's not compelling anyone to use it, but people who are using it love it.

还有像鲁本·雷耶斯这样的人，他用这份礼物开发了一个网页框架，我就用过，也参与过一点。

And then there's, like, Ruben Reyes, which used that gift to make a web framework, which I've used and I've worked on a bit.

这同样是一份馈赠，而大卫·汉努曼·汉森掌控着一切决策。

That is also just a gift, and David Hanuman Hansen makes all the decisions.

别人当然可以基于开源再做个新版，但这个孤岛一直在源源不断地产出礼物。

Would make another version of it because it's open source, but that island is yielding gifts.

我也说不好。

And I don't know.

我觉得模仿的主流已经变得太强大了。

I think the mimetic mainland has gotten so powerful.

我觉得现在几乎没什么独立小岛了。

I don't think we have a lot of islands anymore.

二月有什么新音乐发布吗？

What new music has come out in the February?

音乐一直都有。

There's always music.

以前这边是电子舞曲，柏林那边是浪潮音乐，再加上国外的嘻哈。

EDM was over here, and the Berlin wave caves, and then you had hip hop from abroad.

当然，这些东西存在的时间更久，但它们都是已经成型的产品。

Obviously, things were around longer, but they were like fully formed products.

真正让它们变得出色的是理念的传播。

And then what makes them as good as is distribution of ideas.

哪怕在一家公司内部，与其变成一个擅长传播理念的庞然大物——说实话，这确实很有效——但你怎么才能变成一群独立的合唱团，各自做出有分量的作品，彼此交流理念，互相赠送礼物呢？

Or even inside of a company, instead of becoming this monolithic mainstream thing which is very good at distributing ideas, to be fair, how do you become more like an acappella of islands that all come up with products of merit and then trade ideas and give gifts to each other?

AI这东西其实是一把双刃剑，一方面，这些大型模型确实有很强的同质化倾向。

This seems like a double edged sword with AI, that in one sense, these large models have a homogenizing force to them.

只要跟足够多的输出打过交道，你就能感觉到那种味道，哪怕你换不同的提示词也一样。

And anyone that's interacted with enough of the outputs knows it has this feeling to it, and you can prompt it differently and whatever.

这正是我想表达的意思。

This is actually what I mean.

在这个比喻里，学术界原本是个孤岛，通过OpenAI这个相连的半岛，最终产出了一批成熟的产品，然后迅速传播到所有人那里。

Academia was an island here in this metaphor, and through a related peninsula, I suppose, of OpenAI, ended up creating fully formed GIFs that then were exported to everyone.

这些东西迅速进入主流，传播速度极快，堪称有史以来增长最快的产品之一。

This made it to mainstream, was distributed fast, incredibly fast, fast growing product of all times.

这其实正是主流——我们不妨称之为‘大陆’——一贯的做法。

Again, because that's what the mainstream, let's call it the main continent does.

这挺厉害的。

That's cool.

但幸运的是，我们还有Anduril，他们的模型风格完全不一样。

But luckily, we also have Anduril, and their models just have a different tone.

这很好。

That's good.

还有就是，我们真该感谢Meta，他们开源了这些模型，给了我们如此宝贵的礼物，完全符合开源的精神，让我们能自己训练、做各种尝试。

And then the incredible, and we should all be so thankful, Meta with its open source models and giving us incredible gifts in conformity to open source ideas here of models that we can train and can do different things.

现在，这些小岛都能各自形成，说：嘿，这边是我们负责的领域，这是我们自己的决策结构。

And now all these little islands can form that say, hey, over here, this is our job, and this is our leadership structure.

比如谁来做决定，我们做的东西，目标完全不一样。

Like this is who makes decisions, and we're doing something for a completely different purpose.

如果你真做出了有价值的东西，别人自然会跟着做。

Then again, if you come find something that is of value, other people will do it.

如果没人感兴趣，那也没关系，这很正常。

If not, no one cares, and that's fine too.

每个小岛上的参与者，都在得到他们真正想要的东西。

The participants of an island are getting exactly what we want.

他们并不需要所有人都来用。

They don't need everyone else to also use it.

我觉得这一点很重要。

I think that's important.

我可以就这个话题的两个方面问问你的看法吗？

Can I ask about maybe two dimensions of this and get your reaction to it?

我特别着迷于‘人生事业’这个概念。

So one is I'm obsessed with this concept of life's work.

我越来越发现，真正吸引我的人，是那些像你所说的，正在打造自己小天地的人。

And increasingly, I have realized that the thing that attracts me to people is those who are doing what you say, like building their own island.

每个人的经历都是独一无二的。

And everyone's got a unique experience.

也许我们可以聊聊这个。

Well, maybe we could talk about that.

不同人的经历确实各有不同，但这本身不是问题，因为每个人的经历本来就是独特的。

Like how different people's experiences are could be a problem here, but people do have unique experiences.

如果他们能找到一种方式，把自我表达融入到所做的事情里——不管是事业还是艺术，其他任何领域——真正的奇迹才会发生。

And if they find a way to self express into whatever it is that they do, a business, art, whatever, that's where real magic happens.

而这种很多都源于独处。

And that a lot of that comes from separation.

我一直很欣赏约瑟夫·坎贝尔的观点，他研究神话历史，说自己所有的发现都得益于独自进山五年，埋头读书，不与人交流，彻底独处。

I always love that Joseph Campbell idea who studied the history of mythology and that he credits all of his findings with going into the woods for five years and reading books by himself and talking to nobody and just being separated.

就像一座孤岛。

Being an island.

对。

Yes.

没错。

Yeah.

身处孤岛之中。

Being on an island.

所以我很好奇。

So I'm curious.

我想聊聊怎么才能让更多人拥有这样的孤岛，你有什么想法？

I wanna talk about how we can promote more islands in general, all the ideas you have for doing so.

我个人的想法是，把人生事业加上某种程度的隔离，这两者虽然不同，但都是实现这一目标的重要方式。

My own idea would be this concept of life's work plus maybe separation, which are different ideas, but really important can be ways of doing this.

因为我觉得很多听众听到这个想法会觉得很吸引人，心想‘我也想打造一个这样的东西’，却不知道该从何下手。

Because I think a lot of people listening will find the idea appealing and say, yeah, I wanna create one of those, but not know how to do so.

所以我想听听你对这个话题的深入看法。

So I'm curious for you to riff on that.

目前我觉得最有效的两个例子都来自编程领域。

The two ones I now work extremely well is in the programming world.

我们有开源项目，它始终在持续产出成果，我认为这其实是市场最纯粹的体现。

We have open source, which is always iron producing, and I think actually the purest implementation of a market.

顺便说一句，开源其实被严重误解了。

Open source is totally misunderstood, by the way.

人们总以为公共领域产出的东西会更好，但事实恰恰相反。

Like people always think about this as the commons produces something that's better, but literally it's the opposite.

任何人都可以 fork 项目，如果他们有更好的想法，就能从中贡献出来。

Everyone can fork the project if they have better ideas and send gifts from there.

如果这些捐赠出来的版本比之前的更好，那这就成了一个不以金钱为导向的市场。

And if those gifts end up being better than the previous version, then it's a marketplace that just doesn't run for money.

它纯粹依靠声望和实力来运转。

It just runs purely for legitimacy and merit.

每一个优秀的开源项目，背后都有一小群人，围绕着一位明确且极具公信力的领导者。

And every good open source project is led by a very small group of people surrounded by a clear and highly legitimate leader.

这让我们对人类组织的运作方式有了很多启发。

So it teaches us a lot about human organizational structures at work.

再说到公司。

And then companies.

Shopify 从一开始就是个孤岛，这也是我毕生的事业。

Look, Shopify is an island from the beginning, and it's my life work.

所以平时我谈的都是这本书。

So in my day, I'm talking about book here.

但我其实属于一片真正的大陆，一个实实在在的世界。

But I was part of a real main continent, real world, let's call it.

我看过一些现成的软件，但就是不想用。

I looked at a software that was available to me, and I just didn't want to use it.

所以我自己动手做了，因为我觉着别人做得不对。

I built my own because I didn't think people were doing this right.

我是为自己做的。

I built it for myself.

我做了一个我自己想找却找不到的软件。

I built a software I was looking for that I didn't find.

我想，算了，我自己搞一个吧，觉得别人也会觉得这有用。

I figured, man, I'll just build that because I think other people will find that useful.

后来我就邀请了一些人来用。

And then I invited people over.

我天天都能听到有人说：‘你们这个Shopify挺有意思，但这种东西在现实世界根本行不通。’

The amount of times I heard, hey, this Shopify thing, I like that you're doing something like this, but this will never work in the real world, is basically every day.

这种东西，根本不可能在真正的零售行业里站住脚。

Someone like this will never work within the real world for real retailers.

这种东西在真实商业环境中根本行不通。

This will never work in the real world for real businesses.

客户、企业，或者任何这类用户，都用不了。

This will never work with customers or enterprises or any of these.

这种话我听得太多了。

I've heard it all.

每次我都是这么回答的。

And here's my response every single time.

嗯，那挺好。

It's like, yeah, that's fine.

我不是为现实世界开发的。

I'm not building for real world.

我是在为自己的小天地打造。

I'm building for my own island.

我可以邀请你来体验。

And I'll invite you over.

如果你觉得我做的东西更好，那就用吧。

Like if you think what I have is better, use it.

我觉得这一点很重要。

So I think that's important.

这种分离非常关键。

This separation is important.

我要给自己打个B减到C加的分数，因为当初要是能撑过十年繁荣期，我本可以毫发无损。

And again, I'm gonna give myself a B minus to C plus here because again, when we went into I think I could have survived ten years of a boom cycle intact.

但到了第十一年、十二年、十三年，零利率持续了这么久，我终究还是被冲垮了。

But year 11, '12, 13 of zero interest rate phenomena appended to a ten year bus cycle, I got washed.

有人搭了座桥通向大陆，我却没留意。

Someone built a bridge to the mainland, and I didn't notice.

我被一些想法影响了，其实我根本不想这样。

I got infected by some ideas, which rather would not.

我对自己的这个决定很不满意。

I'm cross with myself about this.

所以我的防御机制还不够强，没法彻底避开这场风波，但我还是取得了一些成效，我觉得自己重新掌握了主动权。

So my defenses weren't good enough to be permanently outside of this, but I still have some semblance of success here, and I think I've reestablished sovereignty.

所以我们并不是在为现实世界做设计。

So again, we are not building for real world.

我们是基于对问题的根本性洞察来构建的。

We are building based on insights into the problems from first principles.

如果有人喜欢，自然就会用。

And then if people like it, they use it.

至于我们之前说的那些趋势线，杰夫会给我更新的数据点。

And then those trend lines we talk about, Jeff gives me the update points.

我负责把这些点连成趋势线。

I draw the trend lines between the points.

如果趋势朝着正确的方向走，那就再好不过了。

And if those go in the right direction, that's really good.

但问题是，我们公司、我作为第一个受影响的人，还有整个团队，都已经对这些特定问题深深着迷，投入了真感情。

But the consequence of making sound decisions for particular problems that we as a company, me as our patient zero, and then we as a company, have just fallen in love with and give a shit about.

说到底，我知道我讲的这些都挺抽象的。

Because at the end of the day, I know this is all very abstract that I'm saying.

可能听起来特别让人糊涂。

It's all probably terribly confusing.

所以不如说点更实在的：归根结底，产品好不好，关键看做它的人是不是真上心。

So just say something a lot more actionable because the place you arrive at at the end of all this philosophizing is products are good when the people who make them give a shit.

因为那些真正上心的人，会把这份用心灌进产品里，用户那边一定能感受到。

And because what they do is they fill up the products with giving a shit and everyone feels it on the other side.

这其实是个特别简单却深刻的领悟。

And that's just wonderfully simplifying realization at the end of the day.

我相信，通往创造有温度产品的路有成百上千条。

And I'm sure there's hundreds of paths into navigating a position where you can create products that give a shit.

而产品最妙的地方在于，它能凝聚人群，而人群又能自然形成某种边界，这正是真正持久差异化的根基。

And the beautiful thing about products is they are one of these things which causes community, and community is one of those things which bootstraps separation to some degree, and that is the substrate from which true lasting differentiation can be done.

再说一遍，我在Shopify已经干了二十年了。

And again, I'm year 20 now in Shopify.

所以能做成这样，真的很有成就感。

And so it's gratifying to have done so.

我向往Matt在Ruby领域三十年如一日的坚持，也希望自己能尽快把整个职业生涯都投入到这样的事里。

I aspire to what Matt's did with thirty one years of a difference in Ruby world, and I hope to spend my entire career soon.

有个岛，我们就先假设它存在吧。

So there's this island, but let's just presume its existence.

而大陆这边总在不断尝试修桥过去，想渗透进去。

And then there's constantly attempts from the mainland to build bridges to it and infect it.

作为一家大型上市公司，特别有意思的一点是，华尔街总有一大堆建议，告诉你该怎么做。

One of the things that's so fascinating to me as you're a big public company is that Wall Street always has lots of ideas for what you should do.

如果你去翻那些专家访谈记录，就能清楚看到大家常问的问题：为什么Shopify不更直接地从终端用户身上赚钱？

And one of those ideas, if you go read the expert transcript libraries, which give you a nice window into what people are asking about, is why does Shopify not go monetize its end customer more?

为什么你们始终这么专注在商家身上？

Why has it remained so focused on the merchant?

你们已经拥有这么庞大的网络了。

It has this massive network.

为什么没有一个类似 Shopify Prime 的服务？

Why is there not a Shopify prime equivalent?

你们为什么不利用自己独有的优势，想办法从消费者端获得更多收益，而不是一直盯着商家？

Why aren't you figuring out some way to take this thing that you uniquely have and drive more monetization from the consumer side rather than the merchant side?

这对我来说就像孤岛和桥梁，是个具体的例子，能让大家真正理解。

This is like island and bridge to me and the tangible example to make it real for people.

能具体说说华尔街给的压力是什么吗？

Walk us through that specific pressure from Wall Street.

我对这些观点并不完全反对。

I don't disagree with all those things.

我只是觉得，人们总是高估了一个想法的价值。

I just think people always made the value of an idea.

一个想法的价值，顶多值一瓶好威士忌。

An idea is worth one good bottle of scotch.

真正值钱的，是执行。

Everything else is in implementation.

关键是，执行才是关键。

And here's the thing, the implementation matters.

比如，做这件事其实很简单，但有一个被忽视的问题：当客户对一家公司来说，不再被当作客户，而是被当成可以收割的资源时，问题就来了。

For instance, it would be trivial to do this, but there's an understudied, under acknowledged thing that happens where your customers by a company stop being treated as a customer and are now treated as a crop to be harvested.

这种做法短期内或许有效，但根本不可能维持长久的关系。

That only works for a moment because this is not a sustainable long term relationship you can have.

在我看来，我们的客户，以及来我们平台的商家，都是在共同参与一项大工程的伙伴。

And I see our customers and people coming to our customers as all partners in a big project.

这并不意味着我们不赚钱。

That doesn't mean I don't monetize.

显然，Shopify 的年收入高达数十亿美元。

Clearly, Shopify makes billions of dollars.

但我们赚的每一分钱，都是基于价值和贡献得来的。

But we, again, earn money worthy of value and of merit.

很多时候，Shopify 是客户整个技术栈里最便宜的那款软件。

Very often, Shopify is the cheapest software people have in their entire stack they're offering.

人们为他们的客户关系管理系统花的钱，是它的十倍，而这个系统实际上支撑着整个业务，我觉得这简直太荒谬了，我相信迟早会改变的。

People pay 10 times more for their CRM, for the software that literally runs the entire business, which I think is hilarious, and I'm sure will change at some point.

所以再说一遍，有些情况下，这听起来可能太具体了。

So again, because in some of these cases, this might sound too much of a pointed particular thing.

我只是在做一个普遍性的评论。

I'm just making a general statement.

你可以谈谈指标监控工具，也可以谈客户关系管理系统。

So you can talk about metrics observability tools as well as CRM.

而且说实话，我自己在经营生意的时候也经历过这种情况。

And obviously, I've experienced this myself in a business at some point.

我以为我们是合作伙伴，一起在打造点什么。

I thought we were partners building something.

你们开发出优秀的软件，让我不用再专门请工程师来做监控，我可以专心做电商；你们做你们的，我付你们合理的价格，大家都好，可突然间，我就成了腐败的一方。

You build awesome software that means I don't have to put engineers on observability, and I get to focus on commerce, and you do this, and I pay you sensible amount of money, and that works for everyone, and suddenly I become corrupt.

这种情况一发生，其实特别明显。

And it's very obvious when this happens.

天哪，真的服了。

Just, holy crap, man.

我知道怎么替掉这些东西。

I know how to replace all this shit.

总之，这种情况太常见了，咱们别再为这种事浪费时间了。

Anyway, so this is an experience that happens a lot, and let's short for shit like this.

不如专心做能长期创造价值的事，做个聪明人。

Just go and build long term value stuff and be as smart people.

我们发现，只要你能想清楚并愿意分享注意力，这件事就值得优先去做。

We find if you figure out and can share the attention, it's a priority enough for doing so.

我们会找到办法，做出让人心甘情愿掏钱的产品——因为某种全新的可能出现了，这才是正确的盈利思路。

We'll figure out how to build something that people just love spending money on because something new just become possible, and that's the right way to think about monetization.

而长期来看，收入增长自然就水到渠成了。

And then revenue growth over a long period of time takes care of itself.

你能说说，作为创始人亲自掌舵、守护公司初心，这种模式怎么让营销比靠共识推出来的方案更容易吗？

Can you talk about the impact that being in founder mode, founder led, protecting the soul or the flame of a company makes marketing easier than trying to market a plan that's been built through consensus?

关于这个话题，我从卢卢·马苏里尔身上学到了很多，我知道你认识她。

I learned a lot from Lulu Masuril on this topic, who I know you know.

我特别在意一点：很多人没意识到，只要你按自己的方式去做，躲在自己的小天地里埋头干，推广反而会简单得多。

And I'm sort of obsessed with people not realizing that if you just do it how you want and build on an island, marketing will be way easier.

你能说清楚吗？首先，你同意这个观点吗？其次，为什么是这样？

Can you explain well, first of you agree, and then second, how?

这直接关系到‘孤岛’和‘主流大陆’之间的区别。

I think this goes straight into the island versus the main continent mainstream conversation.

听好了，主流市场要大得多。

Look, the mainstream is much bigger.

不是说上面，而是说规模。

Not up.

如果你希望快速增长，就得说服人们把注意力转向你这一边的主流叙事。

If you want to grow as fast as possible, you have to convince people to switch mainstream narrative in your direction.

如果你躲在孤岛上，有一套完全不同的价值体系，你的直接表达根本打动不了主流人群，因为没人这么跟主流说话。

If you are off an island and have a different value system, your direct message will not do the job here because that's not how you speak to mainstream.

你得真正喜欢主流的语言。

You have to love mainstream language.

顺便说一句，这种语言一直在变。

By the way, that's changing all the time.

也许你偶然间说对了话，但明天情况就不一样了。

So maybe you accidentally speak the right language in some instance, but that changes tomorrow.

那这到底意味着什么？

So what does this mean?

你得请一家懂主流语言的营销公司，用主流方式跟人沟通，最好还能稍微调整一下，让主流群体多留意你。

You hire a marketing agency which speaks mainstream and speak mainstream to people, and hopefully do it slightly more tweaked in such a way that mainstream pays attention.

不过，我说的可不是这个。

Again, that's not what I'm talking about, though.

我觉得我们告诉客户和商家的是：你的东西为什么存在？

I think what we tell our customers, our merchants, is, why does your thing exist?

是什么让你觉得这件事非做不可？

What happened to make you think that this needed to be done?

你的动力来自哪里？

What's your source of energy?

你到底在忙些什么？

What are you doing?

你看起来能量十足，但牛顿定律说，能量总得有个来源。

You are exothermic, but again, Newtonian laws say energy has to come from somewhere.

你把什么转化成了这种持续输出的能量？

What are you converting into this exothermic energy?

是那种死磕到底的劲头，非要把产品做出来不可？

Is it just some dogged desire to have a product exist?

是对现状的不满？

Is it anger at the status quo?

是因为被人轻视过，所以想证明给他们看？

Is it a counter have you been slighted by people and you want to prove them wrong?

其实这并不重要。

It doesn't actually matter.

人类的情绪只是为这些系统额外增添的能量。

Human emotions are only net adders of energy into these systems.

你利用了哪些情绪，把它们捕获起来，装上蒸汽涡轮，才推动了这一切的发生？

Which ones have you tapped and contained and put a steam turbine on top to cause building to happen now?

然后讲讲这段历程，说清楚这个道理。

And then explain the journey and say this thing.

这才是创业者该讲的故事。

That's a story for a founder.

但这种说法只对你的小圈子有效，没法打动大众。

But that's speaking to your island, not to the mainstream.

我从露露身上，还有一次次试错中学到了这些。

So I've learned from Lulu and through trials and error.

但说实话，我自己也没照着这建议去做，没试着把Shopify这些东西好好包装一下。

But honestly, I didn't take my own advice there and try to always like, hey, let's frame Shopify and whatever.

我们最近刚换了官网。

We replaced our website recently.

就在页面顶部放个视频吧，我让那些跟我们干了十年的内部摄像师和视频团队的人讲一讲：我们总在说的那个故事——Shopify为什么存在。

Just put a video on top there, Basically asked our internal videographer, video team, people who have been with us for a decade, to say, hey, this story we always talk about, about why Shopify actually exists.

你能从这家公司里把这东西提炼出来吗？

Can you just pull this out of this company?

发挥你们的本事，就做成这样，放到shopify.com上，用我们一直教别人解释自己产品为什么必要的方式，原原本本地讲出来。

Do your magic and just do that, let's put it on shopify.com and just explain this exactly the same way we tell everyone to explain why their products needed to exist.

说来有点奇怪，我们居然拖了这么久才做，但总算做了。

It's a little weird that that took us long to do, and we did.

我觉得这样讲才更合适。

I think that's a better way to talk about it.

再说一遍，我们根本不想说服大众，让他们都觉得非得用Shopify不可。

Again, because we do not want to convince the mainstream that everyone should be on Shopify.

我们只是想让人知道，我们在研发这边的生活其实挺棒的。

We just want to tell people that life in our R and D is really good.

那些我们引以为傲的、产品里真正管用的功能，就是我们庆祝的东西。

Things in the fitness functions are that we celebrate.

人们都在追求独立，做着艰难却了不起的事——克服挑战、打造产品、创造价值，送出有意义的礼物，用产品换取金钱回报。

People are reaching for independence, doing awesome stuff that's hard, that's overcoming adversary, building products, adding value, creating gifts that descend, and there's an exchange of product for value in a sense of money.

顺便说一句，这些我们都已经提前准备好了。

And by the way, we have pre tooled it all.

在这个特定的领域里，我们自己搭建了完善的基础设施。

We have a lot of infrastructure of our own on this particular island.

欢迎加入我们。

Come join us.

我不希望每个人都去用 Shopify。

I don't want to convince everyone to use Shopify.

事实上，我想做的恰恰相反。

In fact, I literally want to do the opposite.

如果 Shopify 不适合你，我反而不希望你用它。

I actually don't want people to do it, to use Shopify if it's not the right thing for them.

但那些真心想创业的人，自然会找到这条路。

But the people who want to pursue entrepreneurship will figure this out.

我觉得人们最终都会认清自己，对他们来说，需要像神秘玩具岛这样的地方，或者类似的去处。

I think people do figure this out about themselves, and for them, there needs to be a place like the island of Mystic Toys or otherwise.

我对这件事充满热情。

I am passionate about this.

我真希望更多人能来思考这个问题。

I would love to actually invite more people to think about this.

要想与众不同，就得真的不一样。

To be different, you have to be different.

这句话是毋庸置疑的。

This is an axiomatically correct statement.

阿基米德现在大概都会为我点赞。

Archimedes would be proud of me right now.

但不一样，并不等于更好。

But difference doesn't mean better.

不一样，就是不一样。

Difference just means different.

但岛屿的妙处就在于这儿。

But that's the cool thing over islands.

你可以有很多个。

You can have lots.

如果某个地方不对劲，换个岛就行了。

And if something isn't working, you just go to a different one.

只要没有强迫，思想市场就会变得丰富多元，人人都能把自己的点子带进来。

As long as there's no coercion there, you'll end up in a much more rich marketplace of ideas where lots of people can just bring ideas into the manifold.

别人可以评价这些点子。

People can judge them.

别人也可以加入进来。

People can join them.

有人会采纳它们，甚至把它们带进主流。

People can adopt them and may pull them into the mainstream.

只要主流里的东西是从那些保持边界隔离的岛屿里传出来的，创新就会源源不断地涌现。

But as long as something in mainstream is exported from an island that maintains its membrane separation, you will gain more and more and more innovation being sent.

如果完全整合在一起，桥梁、高速公路这些连接就没了，差异也就消失了。

If it's integrated fully, the bridges, the highways, the differentiation is broken.

我觉得最后得到的，只是一种只能微调、一点点改进的东西，远达不到人们原本期待的那种丰富性。

And I think what you end up with is something that can only be changed marginally, maybe slightly incrementally, but not in the richness that people have hoped for.

你能谈谈创业的那份光辉吗？——我用个大词，叫‘光辉’。

Can you talk about the, I'll use a big word, the glory of entrepreneurship?

归根结底，你服务的是那些自己也在创业、努力打造独特东西的人。

Because ultimately, you are serving people who themselves are entrepreneurs and building something hopefully unique.

他们或许一开始只是个小岛，上面有几间小屋，但有时候能发展得特别大。

Hopefully, their own little mini tiny island with a couple of hots on it to start and can get very big sometimes.

谈谈这份光辉吧，因为这似乎正是你真正在乎的核心，而且这股能量是取之不尽的。

Talk about that glory because that does seem to be the through line for why you give a shit, and that's like a renewable resource.

据我了解你这么长时间，感觉你从来不会耗尽这种动力。

You don't run out of that energy, it seems, at least in the time I've known you.

所以，说说这个吧。

So talk about that.

没错。

Exactly.

这太重要了。

This is so important.

我喜欢用‘荣耀’这个词来形容，因为这确实是一段值得骄傲的旅程。

I love the term glory for this because it is a glorious pursuit.

这需要勇气。

It requires courage.

这是一段漫长的路。

It's a journey.

我会翻遍Netflix上所有内容，有时候也会看一部。

To me, I scroll through everything Netflix has to offer, and sometimes I watch something.

但我觉得，那些故事远不如我跟客户聊天时听到的精彩。

I don't think the stories are as good as the ones that I hear when I talk to my own customers.

这正是Shopify最疯狂也最了不起的地方，现在我甚至在别人考虑加入公司时，都会经常提到这一点。

This is the craziest and most awesome thing about Shopify, and something I do bring up more frequently now even when people are considering joining the company.

你知道为一群了不起的人开发软件有多棒吗。

You know how awesome it is to build software for awesome people.

如果你的客户都在激励你，那同样也是一种外在的驱动力。

If all your customers are inspiring you, again, that's exopharmic as well.

坦白说，他们就是一群充满外在驱动力的人。

And frankly, they are exopharmic people.

他们追求的是改变。

They are people who reach for a difference.

他们想要创造出一些东西。

They are trying to make something.

我真是兴奋得不得了。

I'm so unreasonably excited.

我可以翻看我的Shopify应用订单列表。

I can scroll through my shop apps order list.

昨晚我找到一家Shopify店铺，专门做海盗船宝藏箱主题的扑克牌套装。

Last night, I found a Shopify store that's 100% specialized on making pirate ship treasure chest themed poker sets.

我特别喜欢有这种东西存在，简直太棒了。

I love that this exists because that's awesome.

我要带家人去加勒比海。

I'm taking family to The Caribbean.

以前我们根本没想到，但每次和孩子还有家人玩扑克，少了海盗主题真是缺了点什么，因为这实在太酷了。

Clearly, we'd never knew it, but every poker game I've ever had with my kids and my family has been impoverished by it not being pirate themed because that's totally awesome.

有人意识到，这个世界对我而言还不完整——也许我是唯一这样的顾客，也许我早就被精准锁定，只是这种东西还没出现。但有人看到了，把它做出来了，克服了无数困难，把产品做成了，我真心喜欢。

Someone realized that the world was not complete, at least for me, maybe I'm the only customer here, maybe I've been micro targeted without this existing, but someone saw it through and made it exist and went through all the trials and tribulations of creating these products, and I love it.

我觉得这太了不起了，更了不起的是，居然有人能做成这样的事。

So I think that's just glorious, and it's glorious that people can do it.

我希望他们生意兴隆，也希望他们能创造大量就业，带动整个供应链上的配套岗位。

I hope they are doing excellent, and I hope they create lots of employment and lots of secondary employment in the supply chain.

这纯粹是在创造价值。

It's just net value creation.

价值就是这样来到这个世界的。

This is how value comes into the planet.

这一点永远不会减弱。

Again, it never gets lessened.

这里没有任何负面或缺点。

There's no downer or no downsides there.

我甚至有点被震撼了，意识到它对整个经济和我们生活标准的影响有多么重大。

I'm actually almost humbled by realizing just how lot bearing this is for all of economics and all of our standards of lives.

每次我觉得自己已经完全理解了，却又发现它其实更重要，有时还更脆弱。

Every time I think I've wrapped my mind around it, I realize it's actually more important than that, and somewhat more fragile as well at times.

我希望通过这个生态瓶，我能发现一种方式，让更多人能组建起自己需要的专家团队——不管是人类还是AI，来帮助他们、启发他们、成为思维伙伴，不加评判地陪伴他们，或者只是帮他们设计出出色的logo，又或者教他们怎么在任何地方注册域名、成立公司。

So I hope that one of the things that I've discovered with this terrarium, which I use as an inspiration for like making my own decisions about how how products should evolve in the future, will be that way more people can go and put a team together of experts that they need, some humans, some not, to help them along, inspire them, be thought partners, be non judgmental, sparing partners if that's what people need, or just deeply competent logo designers if that's what you reach for, or just explain how to actually set up a domain and how to incorporate business wherever you are.

人们在追求梦想的路上会得到更多支持，因此会有更多人敢于去尝试，因为还有大片空白等待填补。

People will get so much more support on their journeys that just more people can reach for it because there's a lot of white space.

其实还有很多海盗主题的扑克牌套装等着被做出来，就在各种精彩事物的交叉点上。

There's a lot of pirate themed poker sets to be done in basically every other intersection of multiple awesome things that can be put together.

我对这个AI时代最充满希望的信念是：很多尚未出现的产品、许多未被计入全球GDP的价值，之所以缺失，是因为存在摩擦、困惑、信息获取困难，以及太多人否定独立创业的价值，认为这不该是职业发展的方向。

And I think my most hopeful belief here about this AI age is that a lot of the products, lots of the things that don't exist, a lot of value that wasn't added to a global GDP happens because friction, confusion, lack of access to information, and too much difference in naysayers who say reaching for independence is not the thing to do with a career.

我觉得未来几年这种状况还会继续改变。

And I think that'll change over the next years.

其实过去十年已经发生了很大变化。

And it's already changed in the last ten years.

我觉得这太棒了。

I think that's awesome.

你能再讲讲你的产品理念吗？

Can you rearticulate your product philosophy?

在Core Web，我们的理念是：人类本身非常了不起，而计算机是我们打造的极其强大的网络系统，还有我们构建的全球网络。

At Core Web, philosophy is humans are absolutely awesome and computers are absolutely incredible networks we built and the international network we've built.

人类创造的基础设施已经非常出色，我想把这些工具整合起来，让尽可能多的人获得这些强大的能力，然后放手让他们去尝试。

The infrastructure that humans have built is awesome, and I want to put this stuff together in such a way that you give those awesome powers to as many people as possible, and then let them have a go at it.

换个角度，就像分形一样，我们的理念是：把重要的事变得极其简单，其他所有事则确保可能实现。

At a different Zoom level of a fractal, we follow a philosophy of make the important stuff super easy and make everything else possible.

所以你才能在一分钟内搭建起一个能支撑你事业或生活的网店。

That's why you can get a store in a minute that could power your business or life.

你可以深入研究模板语言的细节，或者为 Shopify 编译一个 WebAssembly 扩展，就是为了能同时做这两件事。

You can dive into the miniature of a template language or compile a WebAssembly extension for Shopify to customize it just so you can do both things.

这一点很重要。

So that's important.

但从一开始，Shopify 最厉害的地方就在于，它把复杂的底层功能藏在一个特别容易上手的界面后面，哪怕没什么经验的人也能用，而且通常只有当用户真的遇到相应问题时，系统强大的功能才会自然浮现出来。

But all of it, I think from day one, the killer feature of Shopify has been that it's retained complexity into super approachable user interface that can be used by people with minimal training, and hopefully, in most cases, the significant power of the system only reveals itself to people in the moment that they actually have such problems.

要开发出像我们这样能扩展得这么广的软件，真的很难。

And it's very hard to build software that scales as far as we can.

我说的不是技术层面的扩展。

And I'm not talking about technical scaling.

技术扩展也很难，但特别有意思。

That's also hard but super fun.

那些又难又有趣的事，我们从不担心。

And never worried about the stuff that's hard and fun.

真正难的是那些既困难又不被当成有趣的事，因为这些地方需要持续投入巨大的能量。

The stuff that's hard and not seen as significant fun is much harder to do because that's where the exothermic energy needs to come in.

你知道什么最让人提不起劲吗？

You know what unfun causes?

停滞不前。

Freezing.

到了某个点，你卡在零，之后就再也没动静了。

At some point, you're at zero, and then nothing ever happens anymore.

有时候特别没劲的，就是得去驯服这种复杂性——做的软件既要让想在午休时间搞点独立事业的小人物用得顺手，又要能撑得起几十亿美金的大公司。

So one thing that's unfun sometimes is this taming of complexity, which is building software that actually works for people that try to reach independence and glory in their lunch break, and still the same software works for multibillion dollar businesses.

大家都说：天啊，显然是那些在高端市场的人赚得最多。

Everyone's like, Man, that is clearly the people up here in the market make all the money.

他们有钱。

They have money.

他们有品位。

Have sophistication.

他们有专门的团队。

They have dedicated staff.

他们有系统的培训计划。

They have training programs.

我们为什么不直接为他们开发，而不是照顾所有人呢？

Why don't we just build for them instead of everyone?

那样做要简单多了。

That would be much easier to do.

而这个问题的答案，百分之百是肯定的。

And yeah, the answer to that is 100%.

顺便说一句，对于不是创始人主导的公司——比如那种由管理层运营的公司——要制定一个能让大家一致同意的计划，说‘咱们就为那些在午休时间搞开发的人做软件’，这几乎不可能。

And by the way, it would be very hard for a not Founder mode company, like a managerial run company, or someone to create a plan that the consensus will sign off on that says, hey, let's build software for people in the lunch break.

同时还能支撑起十亿美元级别的企业。

That can also power billion dollar businesses.

这种做法听起来根本不合理。

That's not a sensible thing to do.

但恰恰相反，这才是正确的方向，因为这个方程式里漏掉的关键是：如果你这么做，就能帮人快速成长为十亿美元级别的企业。

Yet it's exactly the right thing to do because what is missing in this equation is, well, if you do that, you can help people become the billion dollar businesses fast.

现在，那些在Shopify上诞生的十亿美元企业，就是从Shopify开始的。

The billion dollar business on Shopify started on Shopify now.

它们已经存在足够长的时间，见证了当年还只是希望的东西，如今变成了现实。

They've been around long enough to see the other side of something that was only a hope at some point.

所以我们现在可以更积极地参与其中。

So we can now take a very active role.

如果一家企业有可能成长为多家百万美元级别的公司，那软件就应该帮助人们比他们自己想象的更快达到那个目标。

If a business could be many million dollar businesses, I think the software can just push people to get there faster than they thought was possible.

我们可以简化整个过程，而且说实话，随着即将到来的AI技术，我们将极大程度地简化这个过程。

And we can reduce the complexity of the entire journey, and frankly, we are going to reduce the complexity of that journey absolutely tremendously for all the AI stuff that's coming.

所以我认为，我们可以消除这么多障碍，让企业最终能够飞速成长。

So I think we can remove so much friction that at some point, business can just grow very, very, very fast.

我觉得这太棒了。

I think that's awesome.

我的真实人生理念就是：打造最棒的软件，让每一个想做这件事的人，都能找到它。

So my real life philosophy is like build the best possible software that anyone could possibly go find for who wants to do this thing.

这正是我们的使命所在。

That is what our mission is about.

然后在现有技术条件下做到极致，再把它做出来。

And then compromise to the point of currently technological possible and then build that.

但你得清楚什么叫真正惊艳。

But know what insanely great looks like.

再把技术发展的趋势，跟我们真正想要的东西做个对比。

And then compare the changing landscape of technology capabilities to what we actually really, really want.

理想的 Shopify 产品体验是：你简单聊一聊或者发封邮件，告诉我们你有什么产品想卖。

The ideal Shopify version of product is you have a quick conversation or email tell us about products that you have and want to sell.

接着，一个完美的网站就自动为你运行起来，服务所有人。

And then there's a beautiful website doing it perfectly for everyone.

也许它还能根据每个访客个性化定制，或者通过 AI 作为顾问，跟其他 AI 讨论为什么你还需要海盗主题的扑克牌套装。

Maybe it's customized to every individual person visiting it, or is talking through AI as an advisor to other AIs to tell them why you also need pirate themed poker sets.

然后只要有人下单，我们就直接把货送到他们手上。

And then if someone orders it, we teleport it to people.

我们还没达到理想状态。

We're outside the ideal state.

就像所有东西都完美运转一样。

Like this is everything working perfectly.

但咱们得妥协，毕竟传送技术还没突破物理限制。

But let's compromise because we haven't beaten physics on the teleportation.

不过现在AI确实进步了不少。

But boy, have we gotten a lot of AI now.

正因如此，我才觉得这事有意思——我的产品理念就是，尽可能利用全球最顶尖的计算机科学、物流和网络专家的成果，帮更多人走上创业之路。

So this is what keeps it fun, my product principles is pull as much value out of what the smartest people in the world of computer science and logistics and computer networks have figured out to be helpful on our entrepreneurial journey so more millions of people can do it.

我特别喜欢这种产品理念：把想用工具的人，和科技能带来的最神奇体验连接起来。

I love the product philosophy of connecting people that wanna use the tools to the most magical elements of what technology enables.

面对AI，我很好奇，我们跟电脑互动的方式会不会发生根本性的变化。

I'm curious in the face of AI, how you think the way we interact with computers in the first place might radically change.

最近有人跟我聊过一个‘应用之后’的世界。

Someone talked to me recently about a world post applications.

如果跟电脑的交互方式变得特别自然流畅，不再分一个个窗口或应用，而更像是在聊天，会怎么样？

What if the way we interface with computers is incredibly fluid and not in separate panes, not in separate windows or applications, and that it just starts to feel more like a conversation.

我想知道，这种变化会不会也影响到商家、购物方式，甚至更广义上，我们跟机器互动的方式？你怎么看这个问题？

I'm curious if you think that will come to merchants, to the way that we shop, and bigger picture, just the way we interact with machines and how you deal with that.

我完全同意，未来就是这样。

I a 100% agree that this is what's in store.

现在你不再需要在不同东西之间来回切换了。

Now you're not moving from one thing to another.

比如我们这些搞技术的，尤其是程序员，都经历过好多次这样的转变。

For instance, all of us technologists, especially programmers, have lived through many such changes.

我们现在用的都是高分辨率的屏幕，体验挺不错的。

We are all using a paradigm of hopefully nice high DPI screen.

屏幕上开着多个窗口。

It has Windows on it.

大多数程序员都会开一个终端窗口。

Most computer programmers will have somewhere terminal window.

而且这种交互方式会延伸到命令行。

And that reaches into the command line.

那就是老式的 Unix 系统。

That's the old Unix.

Unix 依然活着。

The Unix is still alive.

它仍然深藏在所有这些技术之下。

It still sits below all this stuff.

那些懂得把命令行当作精密而强大的工具来使用的人，能透过 Windows 深入到 Unix 系统内部，它一直都在。

And the people who know how to wield it like an intricate, incredibly powerful instrument reach through the Windows back into the Unix system, so it's there.

我觉得我们在电脑上做的很多事情，未来也会走向类似的方向。

I think a lot of what we are doing on computers is going to take a similar form.

就像程序员会直接调用 Unix 命令行一样。

It's just like programmers reach to the Unix command line.

我们这一代的电脑用户，依然会依赖 Windows 和各种应用程序。

Our generations of computer users will appreciate Windows and applications.

很多这类应用可能只存在于我们的电脑里，因为它们是AI专门为我们的需求量身打造的。

Many of these applications might exist only on our computer because it was bespoke, created by an AI for us for our purposes.

但我认为这种风格真的很合适。

But I think it's an aesthetic that works.

我们离开办公桌后，Meta Orion眼镜会把我们想要的内容叠加到现实世界中，整个过程特别自然，我们还能边走边聊天。

We also then leave our desk, and our Meta Orion glasses are going to superimpose whatever we want onto the world, and it just seems extremely natural, and we will conversations.

我现在就已经在和我的Meta Ray-Ban眼镜聊天了。

I have conversations with my meta Ray bans right now.

所以我觉得，只要你愿意尝试，现在就能活在这样的未来里。

So I think you can already live in basically this future if you try it.

我把这些体验看作是去未来度假。

I think about these things as vacationing in the future.

比如给自己定个目标：这一周，我就只用这种方式工作，完全按照吉布森笔下那种‘未来已经到来’的方式。

Like set myself, okay, for this week, I'm only going to work in this way that is more representative of this Gibson idea of the future is already here.

只是现在还没普及而已。

It's just not evenly distributed yet.

我是个工具开发者。

I'm a tool builder.

所以我得活在每个人的未来里，用上最前沿的版本。

So therefore, I need to live in everyone else's relative future, the very latest version of it.

其实这些事你现在就能做到。

So you can do all these things already.

我觉得这会带来巨大的改变。

And I think it's going to be a huge end.

你也会做所有这些事。

You are going to do all these things.

你一边打电话谈生意，对方随即行动；接着你又和AI讨论下一个营销活动的设计，等你到家时，AI已经把初稿发到你电脑的窗口上——可能是邮件，也可能是别的，甚至你还会在手机上审阅，而手机那时候也还在用。

And you're going to have a conversation about your business on the phone with a person who's then going to do things, and then you're to have about the design for the next campaign that you just planned with AI that's going to send proofs to a window on your computer by the time you're at home, maybe for an email, maybe for whatever else, maybe it's like something you're going to review on your phone, which is also still going to be around.

所有这些都会融为一体。

It's going to be all of it.

这就是未来的发展方向。

So this is the direction it's going to go.

购物的话，完全看你做什么，就像我现在可以网购，也可以去纽约第五大道，有这么多选择，未来还会出现另外十几种同样有价值的发现方式。

For shopping, depends entirely on what you're doing, in the same way how I can right now do e commerce or go to New York 5th Avenue, and I have these possibilities, and there's going to be 15 other ways you're to discover that are also valuable.

在不远的将来，我会有一个特别喜欢的AI，它现在就已经连着我的系统，知道我们即将去加勒比海。

In the future that's not very far away, I will have a favorite AI, but either through just being connected to my systems now is that we are going to the Caribbean.

它知道家人要来，因为能看我的日程，也知道我常和孩子玩扑克，还一起玩《海洋传说》。

Knows that the family is coming, again, because it's presumably my calendars, knows that I play poker with my kids, knows that I play Sea of Thieves with my kids.

所以，当我们快到加勒比海度假时，它会问：‘这个东西会不会让你特别兴奋？’

And therefore, as we are getting closer to the Caribbean trip, says, any chance this is the thing you would be excited about?

因为它太了解我了。

Because it knows me well.

它之所以能做到这些，是因为它掌握了很多关于我的数据，而我信任它。

Now, it does this because it has a lot of data on me and I trust it.

我觉得AI之间协同合作，各自承担不同任务，同时代表双方，这才是人们说的‘能量流动’真正想表达的意思，至少是我从这些关于未来畅想里看到的实际影响。

I think AI is working together, doing different jobs, representing both sides, is really what I think people mean with energetic flows, or at least I think the user observable consequence of all the talk about energetic future.

我完全支持这种方向。

And I'm here for it.

这听起来太有意思了。

This sounds so much fun.

从反事实的角度来说，我现在听你的播客，居然听到有人在讲我刚才说的话。

In a counter factual virtue, I'm listening to your podcast and hear someone talk about what I just said.

如果真能活在一个有‘之前’和‘之后’的世界里，我会兴奋得难以置信——因为这简直太有价值了。

I'd be so unbelievably, unreasonably excited to live in a world where there's a before and after on that because that sounds fucking valuable.

我真的希望这一切成真。

And I want that to be true.

这听起来很酷，因为我喜欢电脑，喜欢探索，喜欢这一切。

It sounds cool because I love computers, and I love discovery, and all these things.

所以我希望生活在一个这一切都能实现的世界里，让这个时代的设计者们正在为未来而建造。

So I want to be in a world where this all works and the builders of our times are building to a future.

我能亲自参与其中，连我自己都觉得不可思议，我真的很感激。

The fact that I get to actually play an active role in this is so crazy unlikely to myself even, and I'm so grateful for.

在这个行业里，能过得开心，简直太微不足道了。

It just feels trivial to have a good time right now in this industry.

那我们开始吧。

So let's go.

我的朋友扎克·弗兰克尔有个有趣的观点，认为通用人工智能其实已经出现了。

My friend Zach Frankel has this interesting idea that AGI is already here.

这些系统已经比绝大多数人更聪明、能力更强，问题只在于怎么用它们，以及怎么把它们和现实世界连接起来。

These things are already smarter and way more capable than the vast majority of humans out there, and that the problem is just figuring out what to do with it and how to connect it to the real world.

我特别好奇，因为你经营的公司正是最贴近最后一公里的典型。

And I'm really curious because you run a company that is so incredibly last mile connected.

这正是你们业务的核心——为无数商家和他们的客户搭建连接。

That's literally what the business does for all these different merchants and your customers.

不管你觉得消化这些新东西需要多长时间，我们都无法加快把这项技术接入现实世界的节奏。

And whether or not you feel as though it just takes time to digest this stuff, we can't speed up the rate at which we connect this new thing to just the real world itself.

世界每年能承受的变革是有限的，也许我们现在已经落在后面了，而通用人工智能其实早就存在了，现在只是进入部署阶段。

The world can only accommodate so much change in a given year or something, and that we're already maybe in catch up mode, and that we do already have AGI, it's just the process of deploying it now.

你觉得有道理吗？

Does that resonate with you?

你怎么看这个说法？

What do you think about that?

对。

Yeah.

关于AGI这个概念，你确实可以定义它。

I think the AGI thing you can get in with definition.

但我并不觉得这个定义有什么问题。

I just don't think I have anything contra with definition.

我对这件事更倾向于一种宿命论的看法。

I'm much more like fatalistic about this.

它到底能带来什么实际价值？

What's the utility that can be pulled out of it?

还有，GPT-4究竟能产生多大的潜在价值？我们到现在为止又利用了多少？

Also, what is the total potential utility they can pull out of g p d four and what's percentage that we have pulled out so far?

我觉得目前的利用率还不到一位数。

And I think I would put that at single digit.