AI spending faces reality check as tech earnings roll in

大家好。

Hi, everybody.

可能有些人不知道，我一直在YouTube上和Steve Kress一起做早间节目。

For those of you that may not know, I have been doing morning episodes on YouTube with Steve Kress.

节目在Kress Top Stocks频道。

It's at Kress Top Stocks.

我们一直在讨论当天市场的推动因素，也就是那些影响市场的股票。

We've been going over that morning's market movers, the stocks that are moving the markets.

我们从量化分析的角度来审视它们。

We're taking a look at them from a quant perspective.

Steve这周休假，所以我和Chris Ciaccia一起主持节目，他是Seeking Alpha新闻团队的技术编辑。

Steve is off this week, so I have been doing the shows with Chris Ciaccia, who is our tech editor on Seeking Alpha's news team.

我想和大家分享今天的节目。

And I wanted to share today's episode.

我觉得这期节目非常有价值，虽然时间不长。

I thought it extremely valuable even though brief.

大家可以去YouTube上看看我们。

And check us out on YouTube.

我们和Chris、特别是和Steve一起做的那些视频，反响真的很好。

The videos that we've been doing with Chris, with Steve especially, have been really making their move.

我们也有TikTok账号。

We're also on TikTok.

我们也在X，也就是Twitter上。

We are also on x slash Twitter.

很想知道你们的想法。

Would love to hear from you what you think.

请在评论区告诉我们。

Let us know in the comments.

与此同时，好好享受这期节目吧。

In the meantime, enjoy the episode.

欢迎大家回来。

Welcome back, everybody.

今天是10月22日，星期四。

It is Thursday, October 22.

我这周又回来了，和Seeking Alpha新闻团队的技术编辑Chris Ciaccia一起。

I am back once again for this week with Chris Ciaccia, our tech editor on Seeking Alpha's news team.

Chris，今天早上市场有些损失。

Chris, there's been some casualties of the market this morning.

Rena，今天很多股票都是红的，而且昨晚的财报结果好坏参半。

There's a lot of red, Rena, and we had some mixed results when it comes to earnings last night.

IBM的财报比预期稍好，但在电话会议上，CEO表示公司开始对AI支出有所审视。

IBM results were a little bit better than expected, but on the conference call, the CEO came out and said that companies are starting to scrutinize AI spending a little bit.

他们在考虑是否获得了投资回报。

They're wondering whether they get the return on investment.

现在你可以拿Facebook，或者说Meta来对比。

Now you can counter that with Facebook or Meta rather.

他们的财报比预期要强。

Their results were stronger than expected.

他们在AI支出上没有放缓的迹象，但今早股价略有下跌，因为他们引入了一种新的股票类别来帮助筹集资金。

They have no signs of slowing down on AI spending, but the stock is down a little bit this morning because they introduced a new share class to help with fundraising.

他们明年可能会筹集至少1000亿美元或更多，来支付AI的开销。

They're probably gonna wind up raising at least a $100,000,000,000 or more next year to help pay for the AI spend out.

但你可以从Muse上看到这些好处，它的下载量已经超过100亿次，人们用它来购物和进行其他个人活动，Meta也从中赚钱。

But you're seeing the benefits of that with Muse, which has been downloaded more than 10,000,000,000 times and people are using it for shopping and for other personal activities and Meta is making money off of it.

所以，这就是我们一直在讨论的那种问题。

So, it's this kind of question pull that we've been talking about.

有些公司看到了AI的好处，有些公司还没看到，还有一些公司开始质疑。

Some companies are seeing the benefit of AI, some companies aren't seeing it just yet, and some are starting to question it.

你在抛售。

You're selling off.

我们又回到了几天前的水平，就指数而言。

We're back to where we were a couple of days ago in terms of the levels on the indexes.

我预计这种情况可能会在接下来的财报季中持续，因为投资者会严格审查一切。

And I expect that to probably continue throughout the rest of earnings season as things are going be heavily scrutinized by investors.

如果公司在电话会议上稍有失误，或者某些事情没有恰到好处地呈现，考虑到目前的水平和估值，投资者就会惩罚这些股票。

And if there's any slight misstep by a company either on the conference call or something that doesn't register just right, given where levels are and where valuations are, investors are gonna punish the stocks.

我们昨天谈到特斯拉和SpaceX的合并对市场波动的影响有多大。

We were talking yesterday about how much the Tesla SpaceX merger had affected the movements in the market.

今天有什么最新进展吗？

What are the updates for today?

关于这个，特斯拉昨晚发布了财报。

So in terms of that, we had Tesla report last night.

他们稍微调整了今年剩余时间的资本支出，因为所谓的效率提升，他们降低了一点。

They kinda tweaked their capex spending for the rest of the year, and they lowered it a little bit because of what they call efficiencies now.

这显然引起了一些担忧，但问题是这件事是否真的会发生，以及什么时候发生。

That's obviously impacting some concerns today, but then there's also the question of whether this actually happens and when it happens.

看起来埃隆·马斯克希望在特朗普政府任期结束前实现，甚至可能在明年，因为政治上的顾虑。

Seems like Elon Musk wants it to happen before the end of the Trump administration, potentially even next year, because of political concerns.

如果民主党在国会掌权，他们可能不会像特朗普政府那样对SpaceX和特斯拉的合并那么友好。

If the Democrats were to go into power in congress, they may not be as friendly towards a SpaceX Tesla merger as the Trump administration might be.

所以有一个争分夺秒的过程，如果真能实现的话。而且特斯拉和SpaceX合并对AI支出、指数和ETF都会产生很多影响。

So there's a race to get this done if it gets done, and there's a whole lot of implications for what a Tesla SpaceX merger means as it relates to AI spending, as it relates to indexes and ETFs.

这里头有太多事情在同时发生。

There's a there's a lot going on here.

我们聊的是新闻，但你有没有感觉到投资界，那些资深投资者，对特斯拉、对SpaceX股票，以及对未来几个季度、几个月科技板块可能发生的情况有什么看法？

We're talking news, but do you have any sense of what you're hearing from the investing community, from the sophisticated investing community vis a vis Tesla and the stock and SpaceX and what may happen in the coming quarters, coming months for the tech space in particular?

我觉得现在基本上就是按部就班，稳步推进。

I think right now, it's just kinda steady as she goes.

我觉得在接下来的六个月到九个月里，我们不太会看到关于合并的重大声明。

I don't think we're gonna see any kind of major announcements on the merger in the next six months or nine months.

这事可能要到明年下半年才会有动静。

It's probably something that's gonna happen in the latter part of next year.

但是，埃隆·马斯克就喜欢抛出一个时间表，然后又不能兑现。

But, mean, Elon Musk loves to throw out timelines and then miss them.

所以就算拖到2028年才发生，我也不会觉得意外。

So it wouldn't be a surprise to me if it doesn't happen until 2028.

还有，SpaceX和特斯拉与其他公司的关系，也有更广泛的影响。

And then there's broader implications as to what SpaceX and Tesla's relationship is with the other companies.

SpaceX和谷歌有一笔大的云计算交易，但谷歌也是SpaceX的投资者。

SpaceX has a big cloud computing deal with Google, but Google is also an investor in SpaceX.

现在有人担心，如果合并发生，谷歌可能会卖掉它在SpaceX的股份。

Now there are some concerns that if this merger happens, maybe Google sells off its stake in SpaceX.

我不太确定这事真的会发生，因为谷歌的投资和它的运营决策是分开的，所以那会是谷歌的风险投资部门做的投资决定，这和谷歌日常经营完全是两码事，但这确实给谷歌的股价和SpaceX的市场情绪带来了压力。

Now I'm not sure that actually happens because Google's investment is separate from its operating decision, so it would be an investment decision that Google's venture capital firm would make, and that's completely different than how Google runs its business, but that is weighing on some shares of Google and weighing on shares of sentiment on SpaceX as well.

今天的话题有什么要补充的吗？

Anything pertinent to add to today's conversation?

我觉得你需要看到更多证据表明，支出方面的担忧正在消退。

I think you need to see more reaffirmation of spending concerns going by the wayside.

有一个我想特别提一下，真的很有帮助……

One thing that I'll call out that really help...

我们之前没太关注的是泛林集团。

We haven't given much attention to just yet is Lam Research.

Lam Research是大型芯片设备制造商。

Lam Research is a big chip equipment maker.

他们昨晚公布了业绩和展望，都比预期好，但展望比一些人的预期稍弱，这主要是因为瓶颈问题。

They reported results and guidance last night, both better than expected, but the guidance was a little bit weaker than some had anticipated, and that's largely due because of bottlenecks.

这已经超出了Lam Research的控制范围。

Now it's out of Lam Research's hands when it comes to that.

他们正在满足所有需求，甚至超出了需求，但如果这些已经持续了几个季度的瓶颈问题得不到解决，就会影响股价相对于预期的表现，因为买方有些人对这些公司的期望过高，远远超过了实际水平。

They're fulfilling all the demand and then some, but if these bottlenecks, which have gone on for several quarters now, don't get resolved, that hits the stock relative to expectations because some people on the buy side have these super high elevated expectations as to where these companies should be as opposed to where they actually are.

最后再给投资者和观察者一个提醒，今天早上我们在收益率和油价上看到了拉锯战。

Just to leave investors and watchers with one more note, we're seeing a push and pull on yields and oil this morning.

收益率大幅下跌。

Yields are down sharply.

这对风险资产是个好兆头，但现在油价又回到了接近100美元的水平。昨晚《纽约时报》有报道说，特朗普政府和以色列可能会在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的打击，这会推高油价。

That's a good sign for risk assets, but now we've got oil back up near $100 There was a report in The New York Times last night that the Trump administration and Israel could renew strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, and that's going to hurt oil prices.

这会推高油价，同时打击全球的风险情绪。

That's going to help oil prices and hurt risk sentiment around the world.

然后今晚我们还有几家大公司的财报要公布，比如西部数据和其他一些芯片公司。

And then we've got more earnings tonight from a couple big names like Western Digital and some other chip companies.

所以收盘后还会有更多日常消息，投资者们也有更多东西要消化。

So it's just more day to daily luge coming up after the bell and more stuff for investors to parse through.

谢谢你，克里斯。

Thank you, Chris.

我们周五再和大家聊。

We'll talk to everybody Friday.

非常感谢，瑞娜。

Thanks so much, Rena.

提醒一下，你在本播客中听到的任何内容都不应被视为投资建议。

Just a reminder, anything you hear on this podcast should not be considered investment advice.

这仅供娱乐参考，投资前应咨询持证专业人士的意见。

This is for entertainment purposes only, and you should seek advice from a licensed professional before investing.

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