Hedging exposure in this volatile market

非常高兴再次欢迎迈克尔·克莱默，他以Mott Capital Management的名义写作，并在Seeking Alpha上运营名为Reading The Markets的投资小组。他在这个平台上已经很久了，我们一直很喜欢和他交流，听取他的见解。

Very happy to welcome back Michael Kramer, who writes under Mott Capital Management and runs the investing group on Seeking Alpha called Reading The Markets, has been on the platform for a very long time, and we always enjoy talking to him and hearing his insight.

迈克尔，欢迎再次来到我们的节目。

Michael, welcome back to the show.

是的，谢谢你们的邀请。

Yeah, thank you for having me.

这太棒了。

It's amazing.

我记得我是2014年开始在Seeking Alpha上写作的，所以确实是很长时间了。

I think I started writing on Seeking Alpha in 2014, so it's been a very long time.

确实是很长时间了。

It's been a very long time.

光是今年一年，我们就经历了不少事情。

Even just this year alone, we could say we've seen some things.

所以想想从2014年到现在，我们经历了多少。

So imagine what we've seen since 2014.

有时候真的很难解读这些信号，但偶尔也会开始变得有道理。

It's very what's the word I'm looking for hard to parse the sign sometimes, but it sometimes starts to make sense.

最近市场涨涨跌跌，股票也是起起伏伏，有的表现好，有的看起来还有上涨空间，尽管似乎已经完全达到了估值上限。你也有这种感觉吗？

Are you feeling that way at all these days as the market is up and down and stocks are up and down and this one's doing well and this one does have more legs, even though it seemingly completely reached its valuation threshold.

对。

Right.

你怎么看？

What would you say?

你学到了哪些教训，现在又在学些什么？

What lessons have you learned and what are you learning right now?

嗯，市场的关键在于不断学习新东西，努力跟上学习的曲线，因为市场总是在变化。

Well, I mean, the key to the market is to always be trying to learn new things and trying to stay up on the learning curve because the market is always changing around you.

过去有效的方法，现在不一定管用。

And what what what's worked in the past doesn't always work in the present.

这是比较难的一点，尤其是对我这样更依赖数据的人来说，在判断市场走向时，我往往会参考很多历史因素。

And that's one of the harder things, especially for someone like me who's more data driven when it comes to looking at where the markets may be going, I tend to look at a lot of historical factors.

你知道吗？

You know?

而且有时候这些方法就是突然不灵了，也没什么合理的解释。

And and sometimes those things, they just stop working, they don't always have a good explanation.

但我觉得作为投资者，这时候你也有责任去搞清楚什么方法是有效的，理解这些动态是怎么推动价格走势的。

But I think as an investor, it's kind of also your responsibility at that point to then go out and figure out what is working and understand how those dynamics are driving price action.

而且我觉得过去这几年和之前十年相比，情况已经大不一样了。

And I think the last couple of years have been significantly different than the previous decade.

疫情之后，好像很多事情都变了。

It seems like a lot of things changed after the pandemic.

我觉得不只是市场，整个世界都变了很多。但市场在过去四五年里，和我2014年刚开始在Seeking Alpha写文章的时候相比，变化真的很大。

I think a lot of those things not only just not just in the market, but I think in the world, But the market has changed quite a bit over the last four or five years from what it was maybe when I started writing on Seeking Alpha in 2014.

你觉得现在哪些方法比较有效？

What would you say are the things that are working right now?

至少对我来说，现在要判断市场方向，关键是要理解隐含波动率，知道它现在在哪里，可能往哪走，以及隐含波动率每天是怎么机械地影响市场的，还有理解隐含波动率未来的走势可能也会影响市场未来的动向。

The things that work right now for me, at least, when it comes to understanding market direction is understanding implied volatility, understanding where that is and where it could be going, how mechanically implied volatility moves the market on a daily basis, how understanding where implied volatility is going to be may also move the market in the future.

有趣的是，事件风险会带来更高的隐含波动率，而事件过去后，隐含波动率就会下降。

And the interesting thing is that, you know, event risk brings out more implied volatility, and when the event passes, implied volatility declines.

所以当这些变化发生时，就会有一个机械性的过程在起作用。

So there's just a mechanical function that goes on when there's those changes.

现在期权市场的持仓情况比五年前对市场的影响要大得多。

Option positioning today is much more dominant in the marketplace than it was five years ago.

了解期权市场中那些关键价位在哪里，确实对判断市场当前位置和未来走向起着重要作用。

Understanding where those key market levels are in the options market really do play a heavy hand in terms of where the market is and where it's likely to go.

我觉得现在很多技术分析其实只是期权市场持仓情况的一种反映。

I think a lot of technical analysis now is really just a representation of option market positioning.

对于了解期权如何运作、熟悉伽马水平和德尔塔持仓的人来说，很多时候我在做分析时，会发现标普500的一个关键伽马位，比如说，是7500点。

For anyone that understands how options are sort of playing in and you understand the term gamma and gamma levels and delta positioning, a lot of times when I'm doing my work, I'll see that a key gamma level in the S and P 500, let's say, is 7,500.

然后你再看技术图表，果然，那个位置一直充当着关键支撑位。

And lo and behold, you'll look at the technical chart, and that's been serving as a key level of support, let's say.

我觉得这绝不是巧合。

And, I don't think that's a coincidence.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得这是两者相互反映的结果。

I think that's a function of one reflecting the other.

所以我认为，这两块是我过去四五年里最努力去理解的部分，也是我真正开始更多融入宏观分析流程中的东西。

And so I think that those two pieces are are the two that I've worked the hardest on in understanding better over the last four or five years that I've really started to incorporate more into my macro workflow.

事实上，如果你是我三四年前或五年前的会员，现在再回来看看，会发现我的方法和当时完全不同了。

In fact, anyone that was a member of my service three or four years ago or five years ago, if they were to come back today, they would see a very different approach to what I did then.

我觉得现在流动性流动比疫情前重要得多。

I think liquidity flows matter a lot more today than they did before the pandemic, let's say.

现在国债发行，我觉得对市场影响很大。

Issuance bill issuance today, I think, has a significant impact on markets.

美联储现在有点像退居二线了，国债市场的影响更大，因为结算日期的波动和财政部定期发行的金额，这些都在影响市场。你知道，政府创造的货币量对市场是有影响的。

The Fed has sort of taken a back seat to the treasury market, where the treasury is just having a lot more impact on fluctuations you're seeing in the market because of those ebbs and flows of settlement dates and the amount of money the treasury is issuing on a on a regular basis, like, you know, the the amount of money the the government is creating is having an impact on markets.

我的意思是，这三个是我认为现在最重要的驱动因素。

I mean, are the three drivers I think that matter the most today.

而且像经济数据这种东西，以前非常重要，但在期权流动和流动性流动占主导的世界里，似乎不太重要了，因为你知道，多少次，比如就业报告疲软之后，市场反而上涨了？

And things like economic data, which are used to be very important, seem to not matter very much in a world where options flows are really dominant and liquidity flows are really dominant because, you know, it's like how many times, like, after a a job report that was weak, have we seen the market rally?

然后你看到电视上的人试图解释这种上涨。

And you see people on TV trying to explain that rally.

他们会说，哦，就业报告不好，所以那一定是好事，因为美联储要降息了。

It's like, oh, well, the job report was bad, and so that must mean that that's good because the Fed is gonna cut rates.

其实不是。

Well, no.

很多时候，是因为像VIX这样的指标，在就业报告公布前一天，隐含波动率是20，因为大家都非常紧张。

A lot of times, it's because implied volatility on measures like the VIX one day were at 20 going into the job report because everyone was super nervous about it.

大家都在报告前做了对冲。

Everyone put hedges on ahead of it.

然后一旦就业数据公布，这些对冲就解除了。

And then once that job data came in, those hedges came off.

所以大家都得买回对冲，隐含波动率下降，市场就上涨了。

And so everyone had to buy back the hedges, implied volatility went down, and the market went up.

所以，如果你想在这个世界里生存，理解这个概念真的很重要。

And so that's a really important concept to understand when you're trying to to live in this world.

这和CPI报告是一样的道理。

It's the same thing like the CPI report.

哦，CPI报告数据偏高，然后大家都说，哦，市场在涨，因为市场喜欢高通胀。

Oh, the CPI report came in hot, and everyone's like, oh, and the market's rallying because the market loves hot inflation.

你懂吗？

You know?

这听起来挺傻的。

It's like silly stuff.

但我觉得，理解这些机制对市场方向以及理解正在发生的事情起着非常重要的作用。

But understanding those mechanics, I think, play a really important role in in market direction and understanding what's happening.

我觉得，这就是我现在试图生活的世界，因为我认为这是很多事情的驱动力。

And I think, like, that's sort of the world that I'm trying to live in right now because I think that's the driving force in a lot of things.

而且即使是财报，你知道，公司会报告，比如，这里有个很好的例子。

And even with earnings, you know, companies will report like, here's a great example.

英伟达这周公布财报，你知道的。

NVIDIA reports earnings, you know, this week.

而且，我们见过多少次英伟达业绩超预期，但股价反而下跌的情况？

And, you know, how many times have we seen NVIDIA crush numbers in the past and the stock goes down?

然后大家就说，嗯，业绩不够好。

And it's like everyone's like, well, they're not good enough.

其实不是，因为大家都在押注股价会涨，那些看涨期权溢价很高，隐含波动率也很高，但现在已经全部衰减了，因为大家都知道英伟达的财报会是什么样。

Well, no, because everyone was betting on it going higher and all those call premiums that people were paying a lot of money for were paying really high implied volatility level that were had really high implied volatility levels have all now decayed because everyone knows what NVIDIA's earnings are gonna be.

所以那些押注上涨的看涨期权现在价值大跌，导致大家卖出，进而引发对冲资金平仓，把股价往下压。

So all of those calls that were betting on upside are now losing tremendous value, which is now resulting in them selling it, which is causing hedging flows to unwind, which is pushing the stock down.

所以，我们经常看到这种情况。

So, I mean, we see this stuff all the time.

而且我觉得，现在这些机制的重要性，大家普遍没有以前那么重视了。

And and there's like a general, I think, misunderstanding of how important the mechanics are today versus when they've ever been before.

那这实际上怎么指导你在市场上的操作，或者你投资什么、不投资什么？比如你之前提到的那些大盘，不受这些经济报告推动的市场。

And how does that practically or actionably inform how you're moving in the markets or what you're invested in or what you're not invested in, like in terms of the broad markets that you that you spoke about in terms of not being catalyzed by these economic reports?

那这怎么影响你在市场上的操作呢？

How does that inform how you're in the market?

比如像英伟达这种情况，是不是意味着你不碰英伟达，因为你清楚预期和现实之间有差距？

And like an Nvidia story, does that mean you're not in Nvidia because you know that the promise there's a gap between what's coming and what the promise is?

我可以跟你讲讲我个人是怎么做的，因为我是注册投资顾问，所以不能给具体建议什么的。

So I can tell you personally, like how I've done this because, again, I'm a registered investment adviser, so I can't make recommendations or anything like that.

但我可以告诉你我自己做了什么。

I can tell you what I've done, though.

当然。

Sure.

我们在节目里不给建议。

We do not make recommendations on the show.

纯粹是为了好玩。

This is just for our joy.

对。

Right.

所以我可以告诉你，就我自己投资组合的做法来说。

And so I can tell you, like, from what I've done for my own portfolio.

你知道，我一直在关注的一件事，我想上次我们做这个节目可能是一年前，我当时提到过，也许要关注‘七巨头’之后的市场。

So, you know, one of the things that I was focusing on, I think the last time maybe we did this show a year ago, I was suggesting that maybe like life after the Mag seven.

不知道你还记不记得。

I don't know if you remember that.

那时候我主要想多关注医疗保健。

And I was trying to focus more on health care at the time.

我现在还是重点放在医疗保健上，持有一些股票，比如Illumina，我是在2024年或者2023年买的，可能更早，现在我还持有，对吧？

And I'm still health focused on health care and owning some of the and and owning a lot of the stocks like Illumina, which I bought, you know, again in 2024, 2023 maybe even, and I still own it today, right?

因为终于开始见效了。

Because it's largely been working for me finally.

而且我觉得医疗保健真的是被忽视的板块之一。

And also because I believe that healthcare has really been sort of one of the sectors that has been left behind.

我认为它未来潜力很大，尤其是在人工智能的推动下。

And I think it owns, holds a lot of promise in the future, especially with AI.

不过最近我注意到，半导体板块的上涨其实主要是期权市场在推动，更像是期权市场在追高价格。

More recently though, I've noticed that the semiconductor rally was really about option markets and it was more about option market chasing prices higher.

而且我后来发现，每次半导体股票上涨，软件股就会下跌。

And I noticed eventually that what was happening was that every I noticed that every time semiconductor stocks went up, software stocks went down.

我越来越清楚地感觉到，现在的交易策略就是做多半导体、做空软件。

And it became very apparent to me that that the trade has been own semis short software.

所以我开始关注软件股，发现有些股票真的便宜得离谱。

So I was looking around at the software stocks and I realized like some of these things are incredibly cheap.

从基本面来看，因为归根结底，基本面还是很重要的，但当它们便宜到一定程度，或者贵到一定程度时，你就不能忽视了。

Like when you look at them from a fundamental standpoint, because at the end of the day, fundamentals still matter, but they matter when they matter and they matter when they're so cheap that are so expensive, you can't ignore it anymore.

我觉得有些软件股特别便宜，而它们之所以这么便宜，就是因为市场上这种交易策略在起作用。

And so some of these names I thought were extremely cheap, and I thought the reason why they were so cheap was because of the trade that was taking place.

而且，我越是使用AI和软件公司提供的AI工具，就越发现，你确实可以在平台上用AI。

And also the more I've used AI and tools that AI that software companies offer, the more I find that, yes, you can use AI on a a platform.

是的，未来可能需要的席位会减少，但我也注意到，现在他们把AI集成到平台里，收费也更高了。

And yes, it makes it maybe that there may be less seats in the future, but I also noticed that they're now charging you more also to integrate AI into that platform.

所以现在不只是订阅QuickBooks要付费，如果你想用QuickBooks上的某些AI功能，比如，可能还得额外付钱。

So now there's not only a subscription fee to owning like QuickBooks, but if you wanna use certain AI features on QuickBooks, for example, you might have to pay an extra fee to do that.

顺便说一句，过去几个月里，我的QuickBooks订阅费已经涨了两三次了。

And by the way, they've raised my price of my QuickBooks subscription like two or three times now in the last several months.

那我该怎么办呢？

And what am I going to do?

我难道要把过去十五年在QuickBooks上积累的业务全部搬走吗？

Am I going to like uproot all of the last fifteen years of business that I've been acquiring on QuickBooks?

不可能。

No.

所以我就去查了一下。

So I went out and I looked it into it.

我就想，哇，这股票真便宜。

I'm like, Oh, wow, this stock is really cheap.

而且它的估值几乎是几十年来都没见过的低，真的很久没这么低了。

And it's like trading at valuations that it hasn't seen in decades almost, like a really long time.

它的交易价格已经跌到了2022年以来的最低点。

It was trading at a price that hadn't been at it since 2022.

然后我就想，如果这个AI的事情，如果我对半导体和他们与软件之间的短期关系判断正确的话，那么Intuit可能是一个非常好的机会。

And I'm like, you know, if this AI thing, if this if I'm right about semiconductors and the short relationship that they have with software, then Intuit could be a really great opportunity.

所以我就对Intuit和ServiceNow都这么做了，而且我把它们都买进了自己的投资组合。

So I did that with Intuit and ServiceNow, both and I bought both of them for my own portfolio.

它们目前还没有真正带来回报，但我觉得如果整个半导体行业崩盘——我认为这种情况很有可能在某个时候发生——那么软件股会重新上涨。

They haven't really paid off yet, but I'm thinking that if this whole semiconductor thing implodes, which I think there's a good chance that that probably happens at some point, that software will go back up.

当这种情况发生时，我认为软件领域的一些公司目前确实被低估了。

And when that happens, I think that some of these companies in the software space specifically are fairly undervalued at this point.

所以我就是在直接押注这一点。

And so I'm making a direct play on that.

而且我把所有这些都告诉了我的订阅者，所以他们完全清楚我在做什么。

And I disclose all of this stuff to my subscribers so they're all fully aware of what I'm doing.

如果期权市场未来真的会占据主导地位，那么拥有那些期权交易的公司股票就很有道理，对吧？

If the options market is going to be really dominant in the future, it's like, well, it makes sense to own where those options are trading, right?

所以最近CBOE跌了不少，因为市场担心一些博彩市场推出的永续合约之类的东西。

So like recently the CBOE fell quite a bit because the market was like worried about these perpetual future things that are coming out on some of these betting markets.

比如，过去三年里我大概错过了这只股票五次。

Like, I've missed this stock probably five times over the last three years.

每次有机会买的时候，我都没买，因为我总觉得，哦，可能还会更低。

Every opportunity I've had to buy it, I never bought it because I always saw, oh, maybe it can go lower.

所以这次它跌下来，估值看起来还算有吸引力。

So this time it came down and the valuation numbers looked somewhat attractive to me.

所以我就想，如果我打不过期权，那我就干脆拥有它们，而拥有它们的方式就是拥有交易所。

So I'm like, Ah, if I can't beat options, then I'm going to own them, and I'm going to own them by owning the exchange.

所以这也是我最近为自己买入的另一只股票。

And so that's another stock that I recently bought for myself.

所以我确实会把我在市场上看到的很多东西，融入到自己的投资理念里。

So I do incorporate a lot of the things that I see in the market into, you know, sort of my own investing philosophy.

你知道，如果我看到，比如，我在很多科技巨头股票上都有核心仓位。

You know, if I see like you know, I own like core positions in a lot of the Mag seven names.

所以如果我看到，比如说，苹果上涨是因为期权市场的一些动静，而这种动静可能在财报后就会消退，然后如果苹果在我的投资组合里占比太重，我可能会减持一些苹果。

And so like if I saw that, you know, the reason why Apple's been rising because of, you know, something happening in the options market, which is really something that would fade perhaps after earnings, then, you know, and and if Apple's becoming too heavy in my portfolio, I might trim some apple.

为什么不呢？

Why not?

你知道，如果期权市场愿意白送钱，基本上靠噪音把股票推上去，那我就会把一部分利润落袋为安，也许我会找个正在亏钱的投资，用这个收益来抵消亏损。

You know, if the options market's gonna give me money for free and and trade a stock up on noise basically, then I'll I'll take some of that profit off the table and maybe I'll find something I'm losing money in and and offset the gain.

不过，是的，我觉得现在的市场分化太严重了。

But, yeah, so I I I think I I think that the market today is it it it it's so it's so bifurcated.

有赢家也有输家，中间地带几乎不存在。

You have winners and you have losers and there's really nothing in between.

但有趣的是，指数已经不能反映整个市场了。

But what's interesting is that the index is not reflective of the entire market anymore.

至少在我看来，标普500已经不能了。

At least the S and P 500 isn't in my view.

现在它反映的差不多就是10只股票。

It's reflective of like 10 stocks now.

而且我觉得有很多股票已经被抛在后面了。

And I think there's a lot of stocks that have gotten left behind.

比如说软件板块，就是市场里被打击得很惨的一个部分。

And software is one part of the market, for example, that's been totally decimated.

那里有机会，我觉得如果你有选择性地去挑，未来应该会表现不错。

And there's opportunities there that I think if you're selective with that probably work out just fine in the future.

所以我会利用这些机会。

And so like I take advantage of those opportunities.

你知道，去年年底没人想要能源股，但在我看来这完全说不通。

Know, nobody wanted energy stocks at the end of last year, you know, but it looked to me it made no sense.

那黄金和白银怎么会涨呢？

Well, how can gold and silver be going higher?

每个人都在担心地下室和通货膨胀。

And everyone's worried about the basement and inflation.

但石油是世界上最重要的商品，它却没有涨。

But oil is like the most important commodity in the world, and that's not going up.

这对我来说完全说不通，如果像那些只买黄金和白银的人说的那样，美元要归零，那石油未来也应该值更多钱才对。

Like it makes no sense to me like if the dollar is going to zero like people were who were only gold and silver were claiming, then oil should be worth a lot more in the future as well.

它和美元的关系跟其他那些是一样的，交易方式完全一样。

It trades exactly the same way in terms of the dollar, you know, the dollar relationship as the other ones.

所以我就想，如果他们打算白送石油，那我也去买点西方石油公司吧。

So I'm like, Well, if they're just going to give away oil and they're you know, so I went out and bought Occidental Petroleum.

我是说，如果沃伦·巴菲特都觉得好，那对我来说也够好了。

I mean, you know, if it's good enough for Warren Buffett, then it's good enough for me.

尤其是当我想在那个领域找点东西的时候。

And if especially when I'm trying to look for something in that space.

所以，你看，我也做过很多糟糕的决定。

So, I mean, look, I've made a lot of terrible choices too.

我买波士顿科学的时候价格很糟糕，卖的时候价格更糟糕。

I bought Boston Scientific at a horrible price and I sold it at even worse price.

我在硕腾上也是同样的操作。

I did the same thing with Zoetis.

我是说，你不可能每次都看准，但如果你能大部分看对，希望最后赚的比亏的多。

I mean, you're not going to get them all, but you know, if you can get most of them right, you know, hopefully you make more money than you lose in the end.

你觉得从波士顿科学和硕腾这些经历中学到了什么教训吗？

Would you say there are lessons that you learned with the that those Boston Scientific and Zoetis?

我做的事情是创建一个观察列表，然后有时候会观察股票一两年甚至更久，了解它的故事，了解股票如何反应，了解它在做什么，了解驱动因素，然后寻找那个真正的好机会，所有因素都汇聚在一起的时候。

What I do is I create like a watch list, and I just watch stocks for sometimes a year or two even, understanding the story, understanding how the stock reacts, understanding what it's doing, understanding the drivers, and looking for that moment where there's a really good opportunity where everything just comes together.

比如波士顿科学，我观察了两年，它一直在涨。

So like Boston Scientific, I had watched it for two years go nothing but up.

看起来它已经横盘整理了一年。

And it looked like it had been consolidating for a year.

从技术面上看，它似乎准备好要大幅波动了。

It looked like technically it was getting ready for a big move.

不幸的是，它确实大幅波动了，但方向出乎我的意料。

Unfortunately, it moved big, but it moved big into the direction that I didn't expect.

所以，我判断对了时机，但方向判断错了。

So so I got that part right, but the direction wrong.

但从基本面来看，这是合理的。

But fundamentally, it made sense.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，基本面看起来还行。

I mean, the the the fundamentals seemed okay.

故事逻辑也没变。

The story was intact.

然后他们突然公布财报，结果让所有人都措手不及。

And then they come out and they report, you know, earnings that caught everyone off guard.

你知道吗？

You know?

没人预料到他们业务中的某一部分会让人失望。

No one expected one part of their business to disappoint.

结果真的让人失望了。

It did.

而且，你知道，我喜欢连续两个季度给一些股票机会，来证明市场是错的。

And, you know, I like to try to give things two quarters in a row to prove the market wrong.

所以波士顿科学公司发布了财报。

So Boston Scientific came out.

我记得我是在九十年代买的，结果它公布了一个非常糟糕的季度。

I think I bought it in the nineties, and it came out reported a really bad quarter.

股价跌了很多。

It went down a lot.

我拿着没卖，因为我想，这可能只是单个季度的问题。

I held on to it because I'm like, you know, this could just be a one quarter thing.

我也不确定。

Like, I don't know.

但市场变化太快了，根本不给机会去等它自己调整过来。

But the market moves so quickly, it doesn't really give someone the opportunity to try to, you know, give it time to work itself out.

所以，你知道，股价跌了20%到30%。

So, you know, the stock went down 20 or 30%.

我坚持持有了。

I held on to it.

下一个季度来了。

Next quarter comes.

结果又不好。

It's bad again.

股价又跌了。

The stock goes down again.

我受够了。

I'm done.

我退出了。

I'm out.

就这样。

That's it.

你知道，连续两个季度，我已经亏了40%。

You know, two quarters in a row, I lost 40% now.

我就继续往前看了。

I'm just moving on.

但话说回来，公平地讲，万一那个季度表现好呢？

But, you know, in fairness, what if the quarter had been good?

对吧？

Right?

股价可能就回到我最初买入时的位置了。

The stock could have been right back to where it was when I originally bought it.

所以这就是为什么我总是试着给股票两个季度的时间。

So that's why I I always try to give things like two quarters in a row.

Zoetis也是一样的情况。

And the same thing with Zoetis.

它已经连续两个季度业绩不好了。

It had reported, you know, two bad quarters in a row.

我在那上面亏了钱。

I lost was losing money in it.

那时候快到年底了。

It was coming to the end of the year.

我有资本利得。

I had capital gains.

所以，再见了，Zoetis。

So goodbye, Zoetis.

你知道吗，你没让我赚到钱。

You know, you didn't make me money.

我现在还在亏钱。

I'm losing money now.

我需要卖掉一些来抵消收益，所以我就卖了。

I need something to write some of the gains off, and I just sold it.

但是，你知道，有时候我买的东西也会跌。

And but, you know, there's been times, like, where I bought things and they've gone down.

比如，Intuit，我最近买了Intuit，它公布了一个季度的业绩。

Like, Intuit reported I bought Intuit recently, and it reported a quarter.

市场对这份财报不满意。

The market didn't like the quarter.

他们对TurboTax的数字不满意。

They didn't like the the the the TurboTax numbers.

股价跌了20%。

Stock goes down 20%.

又跌了30%。

It goes down 30%.

我看了看期权市场。

I looked at the option market.

我就想，哦，他们在2.60美元设了阻力位。

I was like, oh, they put walls at $2.60.

我就想，我要拿着。

I'm like, I'm gonna hold it.

如果跌破2.60美元，那我就得考虑，你知道，可能卖掉它，承认自己看错了。

If it breaks $2.60, then I'm gonna have to think about, you know, maybe unloading it and just saying I was wrong.

期权到期日过去了，2.60美元这个价位守住了。

Option expiration comes and goes two sixty holds.

现在股价几乎回到了我买入时的位置。

Now the stock is right back almost to where I bought it.

我在这只股票上还亏着大约10%。

I'm still down like 10% in it.

但我的想法是，谁知道呢？

But the idea being is that it who knows?

我也不清楚。

I I don't know.

我只是尽量利用身边所有的工具来做这些判断。

I just try to use all the tools I have around me to try to make these assessments.

就目前来看，这个策略还挺管用的，我的处境比六月中旬那会儿好多了。

And in that case, it's so far it's worked out, and I'm back to a much better spot than I was maybe in the middle of June.

除了这些故事和市场走势之外，你还有哪些其他指标或数据点来评估这些股票和大盘呢？

So aside from the narratives and aside from looking at how the market has evolved is evolving, what are the other metrics or data points that you're using to assess these stocks and the market in general?

我用的是一些基本工具，比如市盈率、销售增长、市销率这些。

I mean, I use some of the basic tools, you know, PE ratios, sales growth, price of sales.

我会看自由现金流、经营现金流，这些对我来说非常重要。

I look at things like free cash flow, operating cash flow, very important to me.

很多这些基础指标我都会看。

I look at a lot of those basics.

我也会看宏观经济的风向。

I look at, you know, which way the macro winds blowing as well.

你懂吧？

You know?

我也会试着去理解美联储可能会怎么做，利率会往哪个方向走，整体经济哪里强，但这些因素目前影响不大。

And and I try to understand, you know, what the Fed is likely to do and which way interest rates are likely to go and where's the economic strength overall, but those things have just mattered less.

虽然我也会把这些纳入分析，因为我知道最终可能还是会回到这些因素上。

And while I try to factor into my into my analysis just because I know that at the end of the day, it's probably gonna come back to that at some point.

我敢肯定，如果出现衰退，这些宏观因素又会变得很重要，但现在确实还没体现出来。

I'm sure if we have a recession, it's all this macro stuff is gonna really matter again, but for right now, it just hasn't.

我觉得美联储领导层的变动也在改变一些事情。

I think the transition in the Fed leadership also is changing things a little bit.

你知道，杰伊·鲍威尔是个真的不能容忍失业率上升的人。

You know, Jay Powell was someone that really wouldn't tolerate a higher unemployment rate.

他喜欢掌控市场。

He liked having control over the market.

他喜欢主导市场的方向。

He liked dictating the direction of it.

凯文·沃什看起来是另一种风格，他更愿意让市场自己走。

Kevin Warsh seems to be a different animal, where he's more willing to let the market do what it wants to do.

那是一种更老派的做法，我觉得很多人可能都没经历过。

And that's more of an older school approach that I think a lot of people probably haven't experienced.

我记得以前，在伯南克之前，格林斯潘时代，你根本不知道美联储在利率决策前会做什么。

I mean, I remember there was a time, you know, before Ben Bernanke with Alan Greenspan, you had no idea what the Fed was gonna do going into an interest rate decision.

你唯一能知道的就是根据联邦基金期货的走势来判断。

The only thing you knew was based off of what Fed fund futures were telling you.

他们以前在电视上开玩笑。

And they used to joke on TV.

他们管这叫公文包指标。

They used to call it the briefcase indicator.

如果艾伦·格林斯潘带的公文包特别厚，那就意味着加息的可能性很大。

If the briefcase Alan Greenspan was carrying was really thick, it meant there was a good chance they were gonna hike.

如果公文包特别薄，那就说明他进去后可能什么都不会发生。

If the briefcase was really thin, then it was going in and there probably nothing was gonna happen.

这虽然是个玩笑，但偶尔还真会应验。

I mean, it was a joke, but there was some you know, every once in a while, it might actually work out that way.

但跟杰伊·鲍威尔打交道时，每次会议前你都知道他会怎么做，因为市场早就猜到了。

But with JPal, you knew every single time what he was gonna do before the meeting ever took place because the market had already figured it out.

以前感觉美联储领导层的人一天要出来说好几次话，现在这些都消停了一些。

There were people talking literally multiple times a day, it felt like, you know, from the Fed leadership and all that stuff has died down a little bit.

所以现在你开始看到市场更多地自行波动了。

So now you are starting to see the market move a little bit more on its own.

我觉得这需要一段适应期才能真正显现出来。

And I think it's gonna take a little bit of an adjustment period for that to really kind of play out.

我觉得现在主要是在债券市场上看到这种情况。

I think you're seeing it mostly in bonds right now.

也许某个时候，股市也会这样。

At some point, maybe equities do too.

但现在，我觉得大部分宏观因素，尽管它们很重要，但基本面和大环境在我最开始提到的那些事情面前，还是得靠边站。

But right now, like, I think for the most part that the macro stuff, as much as it matters, I think the fundamentals and the macro take sort of a backseat to the other things that I talked about at the very beginning.

关于债券，你还有什么想说的吗？

Anything further you want to say about bonds?

其实，我对债券已经看跌四年了。

I mean, I've been bearish on bonds for four years now.

我早就觉得利率应该更高了。

I thought that rates should have been higher a long time ago.

我现在仍然认为利率应该大幅提高。

I still think they should be significantly higher.

我说的不是联邦基金利率。

And I'm not talking about the Fed funds rate.

我说的是十年期和三十年期国债。

I'm talking about the ten year and the thirty year.

我觉得三十年期可能会到6%。

I think the thirty year could be 6%.

十年期很容易超过5%。

I think the ten year could easily be over five.

因为如果你看收益率曲线的陡峭程度，从历史角度看，它其实挺平的。

Just because if you look at the steepness of the yield curve, it's fairly on a historical basis.

再说，这里就有点复杂了，因为从历史角度看，收益率曲线的陡峭程度，相对而言是比较平的。通常十年期比两年期高大约300个基点，但今天我都不知道收益率是多少。

Again, this is where you get, you know, it can be really tricky because on a historical basis, you look at the steepness of the yield curve, it's kind of flat, you know, compare comparatively speaking, when the ten year typically tops out around 300 basis points above the two, I mean, I don't even know what the yield is today.

我觉得大概就40个基点左右吧。

I think it's 40 basis points or something.

所以从那个角度看，收益率曲线在我看来是非常平的。

So the yield curve is very flat in my opinion from that standpoint.

所以，我的意思是，突然间，你谈论的是十年期国债收益率远超过6%，如果是那样的话。

So, I mean, all of a sudden, you're talking about a ten year that's up well beyond 6% if that were the case.

而且我仍然认为这是可能的。

And I I still think that's possible.

我不认为经济很强劲。

I don't think that I think the economy is strong.

我认为杰伊·鲍威尔领导的美联储并没有真正采取足够措施将通胀拉回目标水平，而且我觉得他们有点害怕真正全力以赴，因为担心可能对经济和就业方面造成痛苦。

I think the j pal fed didn't really do enough to bring inflation back to target, and I think that they were sort of afraid to really go all the way because of the pain it might cause on the economic and employment side of things.

然后我认为在他任期的最后六个月里，他基本上已经不再采取行动了，因为他不想让任何东西出问题。

And then I think by the last six months of his term, he was pretty much done doing stuff because he didn't want anything to break.

而且我认为现在凯文·沃什处于一个棘手的境地。

And I think now Kevin Walsh is kinda left in a difficult position.

如果你看看他的历史，我肯定会觉得他听起来和看起来比杰伊·鲍威尔领导的美联储更鹰派。

And if you kinda look at his history, I mean, I would certainly think he sounds and seems more hawkish than than the elite than than than the J PAL Fed.

那么你对未来几周、未来几个月的市场有什么看法？

And what would you say about the coming months, the coming weeks, coming months in the market?

你怎么看？

What would you say?

我看到一篇不错的《市场观察》文章，提到进入九月时要谨慎一些。

I saw a nice Market Watch article that quoted kind of being cautious going into September.

那你还会建议投资者关注哪些方面呢？

But what else would you what else would you encourage investors to be thinking about?

我觉得，你知道，整体指数本身其实是有误导性的。

I would say that, you know, the overall index itself is misleading, I think.

就像我之前说的，现在它只代表少数几只股票。

I think it's only really like I said earlier, I think it's representative of only a handful of names right now.

比如，沃尔玛今天公布了财报。

I mean, Walmart reported results today.

对吧？

Right?

然后我感觉，股价大概跌了9%左右。

And I feel like, you know, stock is down something like 9%.

我觉得这在2020年之前会是个更大的新闻。

I feel like that would have been a much bigger story, you know, before 2020.

那时候沃尔玛在标普500里的权重可能也更大。

Walmart probably also would have had a bigger stake in the S and P five hundred at that point.

说实话，前几天有人跟我说，你还有零售商的财报要关注呢。

Literally, someone said to me the other day, well, you still have the retailers to report.

我就想，谁在乎呢？

And I'm like, who cares?

他们不会影响市场的。

They're not gonna move anything.

他们现在都不重要了。

They're not even important anymore.

比如，沃尔玛会没事的。

Like, you know, Walmart's gonna okay.

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

你知道吗？

You know?

就是感觉无所谓了。

It's like it doesn't matter.

而且你可以看到标普指数跌了，大概60个基点左右。

And and you could see the S and P was down, well, like 60 basis points or something.

这根本无关紧要。

It doesn't even matter.

对吧？

Right?

但我觉得市场上有很多股票，在我看来，被忽视了，而且价格相对合理，这意味着有机会。

But I think there's a lot of stocks out there that are, in my opinion, have been left behind and are are relatively, you know, nicely priced, which means that there's opportunities.

如果指数下跌10%，并不意味着指数里的每只股票都会下跌。

And if the index goes down 10%, it doesn't mean that every stock in the index is gonna go down.

可能有些股票，大家都做空了，所以当市场真的下跌时，他们会被迫回补空头，这意味着这些股票会上涨。

There could be positions out there where everyone's been short this stuff, and so when the market actually goes down, they're gonna be forced to cover their shorts, which means they'll go up.

所以我觉得你得注意一点，市场并不等于市场本身。

And so I think you have to be sort of mindful of the idea that the market is not the market.

我认为指数整体可能会下跌。

The index, I think could go down as a whole.

但我觉得指数里面的那些个股，有很多其实可能会从中受益。

But I think that the underlying names within the index, there's lots of them that could actually benefit from that.

其中几只我已经告诉过你了。

And a few of them I've already told you.

我正想说，也许我可以稍微分析一下像Illumina这样的股票，你之前说过你为什么喜欢它。

I was going to say maybe if I can pick apart a little bit at the stock like Illumina, you were saying why you liked it.

如果你去Seeking Alpha的行情页面看，你会发现它在最近的历史上，估值和增长方面的评分一直很低。

If you go on the quote page on Seeking Alpha, you can see that it has had for in recent history consistently low grades on valuation and growth.

也许可以谈谈你在那只股票上更关注的指标，以及这些指标如何让你保持看涨。

Maybe talk about the metrics that you're paying more attention to in that stock and how they're helping you stay bullish.

所以我觉得那只股票其实很简单。

So I think like in that stock, it's really very simple.

我告诉你我是怎么开始关注Illumina的。

I'll tell you exactly how I got into Illumina.

Illumina之前收购了一家公司叫Grail，Grail是一家做癌症检测的公司。

So Illumina owned a company called Grail, and Grail is a multi it's a it's a cancer detection company.

他们取一份血样，然后通过血样检测你血液中可能来自癌症的蛋白质，这些蛋白质可能是癌细胞脱落的。

They take a blood sample, and then with that blood sample, they look for proteins in your bloodstream that could could be coming from cancer, which is shedding it.

对吧？

Right?

所以我买Illumina是因为我想参与癌症检测这个领域。

And so I bought Illumina because I wanted to play that cancer detection story.

然后发生的是，当我买入Illumina时，欧盟要求他们剥离Grail，这家公司他们刚收购不久。

And so what happened was when I bought Illumina, they were told by the EU they had to divest Grail, which they had recently bought.

他们说这构成了反竞争，是一种反竞争的行为。

And they said it was creating anti competitive it was like an anti competitive thing.

与此同时，这笔交易已经完成了。

Meanwhile, the transaction had already gone through.

Grail 已经是 Illumina 的一部分了。

Grail was already part of Illumina.

所以我喜欢 Grail，因为我觉得，哇，这太厉害了。

And so I liked Grail because it kinda I thought to myself like, wow.

你想啊，他们做的很多事情，都是在 AI 真正火起来之前就开始的。

Like, you know, imagine, like, they're doing a lot of this stuff without you know, before really AI really took on.

我就想，你能想象他们能检测出什么吗？

I'm like, could you imagine, like, the things they can detect?

比如他们取你的血样，然后用 AI 算法分析，这个算法能告诉你，很多人都有某种特征，而这些有特征的人往往容易得前列腺癌之类的。

Like if they take a sample of your blood and run it through like an AI algorithm and that AI algorithm can tell you like, you know, so many people have had this certain thing and of those people that have it, they tend to have, you know, prostate cancer or something like that.

所以我就觉得，这听起来太不可思议了。

So I was like, that sounds incredible.

现在想象一下，如果能用这种方法检测各种不同的疾病。

Now imagine if you could start doing it with that with like all sorts of different diseases.

所以，这真的是吸引我投资 Illumina 的原因。

So that really is what drew me to Illumina.

而且，你知道，这只股票之前跌得很惨。

And, you know, the stock had had a terrible decline.

基本上，后来幸运的是，Grail从Illumina分拆出来了，Illumina的股东都拿到了Grail的股份。

And essentially, like I and I and so then eventually, luckily for me, I got Grail was spun out of Illumina, and shareholders of Illumina got shares of Grail.

虽然不多，但我们确实拿到了一些。

Not very many, but we got some.

所以Grail上市后，我又买了一些，而且我也买得起。

And so I ended up buying more Grail once it came public, and I was able to.

这样我在Grail和Illumina上的仓位就一样了。

So I had an equal position in both Grail and Illumina.

这两家公司其实都是同一个思路，同一个赌注，就是我押注所有做这类诊断测试的公司都会从AI医疗技术中大大受益。

And so they're both sort of the same idea, the same play, which is that I'm making a bet that all these companies that do these sort of diagnostic tests are going to see a big benefit from AI technologies in medicine.

我在Illumina关注的事情很简单。

And the things that I'm looking at at Illumina are very simple.

就是公司是否还在持续增长收入，以及是否在证明盈利能力。

Is the company continuing to grow revenue and is it proving earnings?

我现在真的不太关心其他事情，因为如果事情按照我想的那样发展，最终很多这类公司，还有这个领域的其他公司，我觉得Guardant Health也是一个。

I really don't care about much else right now because if it ends up playing out the way that I think it plays out, which is ultimately that a lot of these companies and there's others too in the space, I think Guardian Health is another name.

我没买那家，但我一直在关注。

I don't own that one, but that's one I've been following.

这几乎和Illumina、Grail是同一个领域。

This is almost like in that same space with Illumina and Grail.

它们都涨了很多。

They've all had tremendous runs.

因为我觉得它们都在走同一条路，就是把AI用在疾病和癌症检测上。

And because I think they're all kind of going down that same road, which is incorporating the usage of AI into detecting disease and cancer.

我觉得这些公司才是AI和AI投入的真正受益者。

And I think that those are going to be things that, I think those are going to be the real beneficiaries from all this AI and AI spending.

所以对我来说，只要Illumina没什么大问题，比如股价没有大跌，收入继续增长，符合分析师的预期，盈利也还行。

And so to me, as long as Illumina isn't doing anything bad, meaning like as long as the stock isn't going down a lot, as long as the revenue numbers continue to kind of grow and come in and meet analyst expectations and earnings are okay.

我现在就关心这些，因为如果我对的话，真正的大戏还没开始呢。

Like that's all I care about right now because I don't think the real story's really kind of hit yet, if I'm right.

而且Grail甚至还没有，Grail有那个Galleria测试，他们其实还没怎么产生收入，你知道的，但他们展示的数据一直非常好，非常积极。

And Grail doesn't even Grail has that Galleria test and they're not really even producing revenue yet, you know, but the data they've shown has been very good and very positive.

所以他们九月底会有一个AdCom会议，如果进展顺利，最终这个测试能获得FDA批准，那很可能Medicare就会覆盖它。

And so they're going to have an AdCom at the end of September, which if that goes well and ultimately they get an FDA approval for this test, that will probably lead to Medicare picking it up.

一旦Medicare覆盖了，就意味着这个测试基本上对50岁以上的人都能普及，你知道，这对他们来说是个巨大的机会。

And then once Medicare picks it up, it means that it will become largely a test largely accessible to everyone who's over 50, which, you know, is a huge opportunity for them.

谁不想知道自己有没有癌症呢？如果能在三期就检测出来，而不是等到四期症状出现才发现。

Who wouldn't want to know if they had cancer, if that could be detected in stage three, then find out that you had it in stage four when the symptoms are present?

我觉得很多人都会希望在还能治疗的时候知道。

I think a lot of people would want to know that when it's treatable.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

Michael，你觉得还有什么应该在这个讨论里提到？

Michael, what else would you say belongs in this conversation?