Predicting S&P 500 at 6,300 - 6,500 by year end

非常高兴欢迎桑吉夫·夏尔马重返《投资专家》节目。

Very happy to welcome back Sanjeev Sharma to Investing Experts.

桑吉夫作为 Seeking Alpha 的分析师，差不多和我在这里的时间一样长了，都快二十年了。

Sanjeev has been a Seeking Alpha analyst contributor for just about the same time as I've been at Seeking Alpha almost, two decades now Sanjeev.

很高兴你今天能来。

So great to have you on.

你对市场的分析本身就说明了一切。

Your your work speaks for you in terms of how you've been looking at the markets.

上次你来的时候，还给我们预测了标普500的走势。

Last time you were on, you were giving us your prediction about the S and P 500.

现在你对市场有什么看法？

What would you say about the markets these days?

雷娜，谢谢你邀请我。

Rena, thanks for having me.

再次见到你真好。

It's good to see you again.

我觉得，去年我们聊过市场下跌的时候，你还记得吗？

I would say, I mean, we discussed previous year about, you know, when the market was down.

上一次播客里，我说过2025年市场下跌的事，当时我期待着同样的情况再次出现，但今年市场虽然上涨，我却看不出这种趋势。

If you remember last year, in our last podcast, when the market was down in 2025, I said the market will go I was hoping I can see the same thing because the market is up this year, but it does not look like that for me.

这基于我开发并发布在Seeking Alpha上的方法，也就是可支配收入分析法。

And it's based on the formula or methodology that I have developed and published on Seeking Alpha, which is the disposable income based methodology.

我关注的是影响普通人可支配收入的五个关键因素：工资变化、通胀率（CPI）、油价、房价和利率。

So I look at key factors which impact the common man's disposable income, which is the change in his wages, the change his the change in the inflation, which is the CPI number, the change in the gas prices, the change in the home prices, and also the interest rates.

我只看这五个指标。

I only look at these five factors.

如果我跟你一一分析这些因素，你会发现，今年工资并没有大幅上涨。

So if I if I discuss, you know, these factors with you, like, if I compare these factors, you see the wages, they are not going up dramatically this year.

工资确实在涨，但目前全年增幅大概只有3.5%左右。

They are going up, but they are, like, around 3.5% so far, a one year increase.

不过今年第二季度，因为政府发了额外的退税，确实给不少人带来了帮助。

But this year, the second quarter, because of the additional tax refunds which people got, I would say, you know, it was helpful for people.

所以如果把这笔钱算上，普通人平均多拿到了至少一千美元的退税，相比去年多了不少。

So if I add that amount, because people on an average got at least a thousand dollars, you can say around a thousand dollars more, you know, tax refund when they filed for taxes compared to previous year.

到目前为止，这确实帮了大家一把。

So this has been helpful so far.

我把3.5%的工资增长加上退税带来的1.5%，加起来工资实际增长超过5%了。

So if I add the 3.5, you know, the tax refund which comes to around 1.5, it's it's around more than 5% is the wage growth.

但今年通胀压力很大，主要是油价上涨，而油价上涨又跟伊朗的战争有关。

But inflation wise, you can see the inflation has been very high this year, primarily due to the oil prices and that primarily due to the war in Iran.

我们本来以为通胀会回落，可战争又重新爆发了。

So, the inflation has been high, and now we were hoping that the inflation will go down, but the war has again started.

这确实让人担心。

So that's a concern.

今年的CPI数据比去年高了大约3.5%。

Basically, the CPI numbers are around 3.5% higher this year.

接下来是汽油价格。

And the next one is the gas prices.

我总是关注前四个月的油价，因为那段时间的油价会对全年产生很大影响。

I always look at the gas prices in the initial four months because the first four months of gas prices impact, you know, a large part of the rest of the year.

如果前四个月油价或汽油价格很高，这种影响不只限于那几个月，还会持续更久，带来通胀或通缩的压力。

Because if, let's say, the prices are high, oil prices are high, or the gas prices are high in the first four months, the impact of it is going to create inflationary or deflationary impact, not just in the first four months, but much later.

毕竟汽油用在运输和各种能源需求上，所以你看年初的时候，加油站的平均油价大概每加仑2.7美元左右。

Because it is used in transportation and so many energy, you know, requirements are So if you look at the gas prices there, you know, when the year started, average gas at the pump was around $2.7 per gallon.

战争最激烈的时候，油价涨到了4美元以上，有些地方甚至到了4.5美元。

And when the war was at peak, it was more than $4 you know, in fact, for some places, 4.50.

如果你在加州，那价格轻松就超过6美元了，对吧？

If you are in California, then easily more than $6 right?

所以前四个月的油价涨得特别厉害，可能比平时高了四到五成。

So, the gas prices have been phenomenally high, maybe 40% to 50% higher in the first four months.

这可不是什么好事。

That's not helping.

然后是利率，因为十年期国债收益率一直在反映当前的通胀情况。

And then interest rates, because the ten year yield looking at the inflation, so far.

所以今年利率也没降下来。

So the interest rates have also not gone down this year.

你看十年期国债收益率，年初的时候大概在4.1到4.15左右。

So if you look at the ten year yield, it started from around 4.1 or 4.15, like around that in the beginning of the year.

现在再看，十年期收益率已经到了4.6左右。

And if you look at now, the ten year yield is around 4.6.

也就是说，收益率差不多涨了40个基点。

So almost, you know, 40 basis points, the yield is up.

这同样也不是什么好事。

So that's not helping also.

至于房价，我本来以为至少会跌一跌，现在看房子，确实感觉价格在往下走。

Now the home prices, I was expecting at least the home prices will go down, and it looks like the home prices are going down when I look at homes.

我上网找房的时候，发现房东们已经开始降价了。

When I search online to try to find a home, I see that people have started reducing the price of the homes.

找买家不容易，尤其是现在移民人数很少。

It's not easy to find buyers, especially because immigration is low.

现在的移民情况跟几年前完全不一样了。

Immigration is not the same as it used to be, you know, a few years back.

很多靠临时签证在这里工作的人，因为政策变化，对将来能不能拿到永久居留权或公民身份都没什么把握。

And a lot of people who are, you know, working here on temporary visas, they they are because of the policies, they are not necessarily very, you know, confident that that they'll get their permanent residence or they'll become citizens later on in in after a few years.

所以他们也挺犹豫的，不敢在房产市场里花钱。

So they are also a little bit worried, and they are not investing money in the housing market.

再加上移民数量少，人口增长乏力，这也压低了房价。

Plus, with low immigration and low and the population is not growing much, you know, so that that's also impacting the home prices.

所以综合来看这些因素，我觉得今年房价不太可能大幅上涨。

So when I look at all those sectors, I think the market is not going to go up dramatically this year.

尽管今年到目前为止，市场看起来还比较高。

Even though the market is high this year, so far.

但到了年底，当我把这些因素都放进我的评估模型里时，过去唯一能撑住局面的静态因子是20。

But by the end of the year, when I put all of these things into my formula, and the only saving grace used to be the static factor because the static factor was 20.

但去年我们已经把它下调了，现在静态因子大概降到9.5左右，因为我觉得这个因子本身已经不像以前那么有支撑力了。

But last year, we saw, and have reduced the static factor now to around 9.5 or nine, around that much because I don't think the static factor is you you may be wondering what is the static factor essentially.

静态因子的作用是，假设这五个因素都没有任何变化。

What the static factor does is it says, let us say there is no change in any of these factors, any of these five factors.

比如说，工资没有变动。

Let's say there is no change in wages.

比如说，通胀没有变动。

Let's say there is no change in inflation.

比如说，油价没有变动。

Let's say there is no change in gas prices.

比如说，房价没变，利率也没变，那股市会怎么样？

Let's say there is no change in home prices, let's say there is no change in in in in interest rates, what will the stock market do?

对吧？

Right?

所以，静态因子的意思是，传统上，如果其他所有因素都不变，股市还是会涨20%。

So, basically, the static sector says, traditionally, if everything else was no change, still the stock market will go up by 20%.

之所以这样，是我的理论或假设：第一，人口在增长，对商品和服务的需求也就随之上升。

And the reason for that is, which is my theory or my assumption is that number one, population increases, so the demand for goods and services increases.

同样的基础设施条件下，企业现在能卖出更多产品，这帮了他们大忙。

So with the same, you know, setup of infrastructure, companies are able to sell more goods that's helping them.

其次，每年都有新技术加入，企业能让流程更高效，从而提升利润。

And secondly, with additional technology every year, companies are able to make their processes more efficient and increase their earnings.

即使其他因素都没变，每股收益也会增长，公司自然会想办法让利润往上走。

Because earnings per share is going to increase, even if all those sectors are not changing, companies will make sure their earnings are going up, you know.

主要原因还是通货膨胀和人口增长，再加上技术的应用。

Primarily due to inflation, primarily due to population, as well as, you know, use of technology.

今年的人口增长，跟几年前那种势头比，已经没那么明显了。

So this year, the population is not necessarily growing the same way we used to see in the previous years, like a few years back.

我觉得这个静态因子不会再是20%，可能在9%左右，我去年算过，大概是九到十之间。

I think this static factor is not going to be 20, but it will be somewhere like nine, which I calculated last year, nine or 10.

当我把这些因素都放进我的公式里，发现市场不太可能像现在这么高。

So, when I put all those sectors into my formula, doesn't look like the market will be high as it is now.

在我看来，市场也不会像有些人说的那样暴跌。

It looks to me that market will be not like some people will tell you that the market will go dramatically low.

对吧？

Right?

你常听说有人讲，某些帕尔马啤酒公司预测市场会暴跌百分之五十甚至七十。

You hear stories about where there are some Parma beers who will tell you the market will go 50% down 70%.

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

市场不会骤然大跌。

It will not go dramatically low.

根据我的公式，市场只会比起点稍微低一点。

What my formula tells me, it will go slightly lower than where we started.

大概会比起点低百分之三到五。

It will go maybe three to 5% below where it started.

也就是说，起点大概是六千八百多，对吧？

That means it started at around 6,800 something, right?

所以到2026年，标普500指数可能会落在六千五百到六千三百左右，这就是我的计算结果。

So will be around the market will be $6,500 $6,300 That's what my numbers are telling me for S and P $500 for 2026.

你之前提到过一些没料到的因素，关于这些。

In terms of, you know, you discussed factors that you weren't expecting.

如果今年剩下的时间里，这些意外情况越来越多，你的模型有没有考虑过应对这类突发状况？就算我现在也说不清到底会有什么黑天鹅事件，但像一些重大新闻头条，会不会影响年底市场的最终数字？

In terms of how the rest of the year plays out if unexpected things continue to happen increasingly happen is this is your model predicated around solving for even those surprises or would something like a black swan type of event even though I'm not sure what the black swan events would be at this point but what kind of headline driven news might affect the number in terms of what what the market might hit by year's end?

是的。

Yes.

这个模型确实没法预测黑天鹅事件。

So this model is not able to, you know, consider black swan events.

它只基于普通人的消费能力。

It is only based on the average man's consumption power.

简单说，就是美国人支付完住房、油费、食物这些基本开销后，还能剩下多少钱来花。

Basically, how much the average man in America can consume based on all these factors after paying for the basic necessities of life like home, like gas, right, like food.

一旦基本生活需求满足了，剩下的钱他们打算怎么花，这就是模型的依据。

Basic necessities once he does once he's able to spend what is the remaining dollars he has in his pocket.

基于这些，我才推导出了这套公式和方法。

Based on that, I am you know, I've created his formula and methodology.

过去将近二十年，这套方法一直运行得不错，这一点是看得出来的。

So far, it has been working fine for almost twenty years, can see.

对此我感到很满意。

And I am happy for that.

不过确实，可能会出现一些我无法预知的黑天鹅事件。

But there is yes, there could be black swan events, which I cannot predict what those.

但到目前为止，它一直有效。

But so far, it has worked.

我的意思是，可能发生的情况太多了。

I mean, there could be many things which can happen.

战争肯定是大家目前最担心的事情。

The war is definitely something which we are all worried about.

那您对科技行业怎么看？

And what would you say about the tech sector?

我知道您对大语言模型，也就是AI方面，有自己的看法。

I know you have thoughts on the LLMs when we're talking about AI.

对于关注这个领域的投资者，你会怎么说？

What would you say to investors looking at that space?

总的来说，你对科技行业有什么看法？

Or what would you say in general about the tech sector?

确实如此。

Yeah.

现在大家对大型语言模型特别兴奋，比如Anthropic、OpenAI，还有XAI这些公司，数不胜数。

So there is a lot of excitement about the large language model like Anthropic, OpenAI, so many of, you know, XAI, so many of these.

这其实不合逻辑，因为这些技术看起来前景非常光明，任何用过的人也都被深深打动。

And it is illogical because these these look very promising, and whoever has used these are very impressed.

对吧？

Right?

但我要告诉你，如果回溯三十年，当年互联网泡沫兴起时，我们也经历过类似的狂热。

And but what but let me tell you, if you go back if you go back, you know, thirty years, we had the same type of excitement when the dot coms came.

那时候人们发现，几秒钟就能免费发邮件，不用花一分钱，就能跟地球另一端的人连上。

When people saw they could send emails, you know, in a few seconds without paying anything, They could connect to somebody in in the opposite side of the world without doing anything or paying anything.

那时候的一切也同样令人兴奋，甚至更让人激动。

So all that was also equally exciting and probably more exciting.

但到了1999年底、2000年初，互联网泡沫破灭了。

But what happened in '19 at the end of nineteen ninety or beginning of two thousand, you you know the .com bubble burst.

至于大语言模型，我想说，我们其实早就用神经网络了，但真正关键的是2017年谷歌大脑发表的一篇论文，题目叫《注意力就是你所需的一切》。

As for the large language model, I would say that we have been using neural networks for a long time, but the key to this, you know, large language model models was a paper written in 2017 by Google Brain, and it was the name of the paper was Attention is All You Need.

基于这篇论文，第二年，也就是2018年，出现了两个Transformer模型。

And based on that paper, you know, next year, in 2018, you had two transformer models.

它们被称为迁移学习模型，或者叫Transformer模型。

They're called transfer learning or transformer models, which came up.

一个是BERT，另一个是GPT。

One was the BERT and the other was the GPT.

现在，这些同样的模型，已经有二十个专有版本可以使用了。

And now those same models, proprietary models, 20 of those proprietary models are available.

此外，大约五百个开源模型也已经公开可用。

Around 500 of those open source models are also available.

这些开源模型再经过特定数据集的微调，针对具体问题做优化，又衍生出大约七十万个模型，都是基于特定行业或任务，用专门的数据训练出来的。

And then the derivation of these open source models, you know, using specific data setters, trying to solve a specific problem, you have models around 700,000 models further available, which are, you know, based on solving a specific industry or problem or, you know, basically training the data on training the model on a specific set of data.

所以现在用户的选择真的多得惊人。

So you can see the amount of choice people have now.

加起来就是五百个开源模型、二十个专有模型，再加上七十万个衍生模型。

That means 500 open source, 20, you know, proprietary models, plus 700,000, you know, basically derived work.

面对这么庞大的选择，问题就来了：为什么消费者还要付高价？

So if you look at this kind of a huge choice, the problem is that why should the consumers pay a high amount?

再看看像Anthropic、OpenAI或者XAI这样的头部公司，当用户有这么多选择时，它们还能维持定价能力吗？

Or what is, I would say, looking at the the top companies like Anthropic or OpenAI or XAI, I mean, will these companies maintain pricing power when there is so much choice the consumer or the client has?

这才是我真正担心的。

That is what worries me.

与其说让我担心，不如说这会直接影响这些公司的声誉。

And because of that, I won't say it worries me, but that is going to impact the image of all these companies.

因为一旦失去定价权，任何公司都建不起真正的护城河。

Because if the company doesn't have pricing power, there is no solid moat around any company.

是的，目前有些公司确实更领先，比如Anthropic就比不少竞争对手强得多。

Yes, some companies are definitely more advanced right now compared to others like Anthropic is definitely quite good compared to some of its competitors.

但其他公司也会努力追赶，迟早会跟上来。

But others will try to catch up and will catch up probably at some point.

就算追不上，只要价格差距明显，消费者可能就不选Anthropic，转而选择更便宜甚至免费的替代品。

Even if they don't catch up, the question is when the pricing difference is there, consumers might not choose Anthropic and could go with something much cheaper or free.

所以这是个问题：AI技术很棒，但AI公司真能赚钱吗？

So that is one concern that AI is great, but will the AI companies make money?

这很难说。

That is doubtful.

尤其是因为每笔服务的边际成本很高。

Especially because the marginal cost is high.

每当用户向AI公司发起一次新请求，生成响应的代价并不是免费的。

When somebody sends a new request to an AI company, the marginal cost to derive an output is not free.

这背后需要消耗大量的电力。

It's like it requires power.

这需要一定的计算资源。

It requires some computation.

如果你没法从中赚到足够的钱，就很难保持盈利。

And then unless you can make enough money for that, you may not be able to basically be remain profitable.

我对这些半导体公司印象非常深。

I'm very impressed by these semiconductor companies.

事实上，今年我投资了一些半导体公司，但主要是因为这个原因，我今年手头持有了大量现金。

And in fact, this year, I have invested in semiconductor companies, but mostly, I am you know, I have a large amount of cash this year because of this same reason.

因为我的分析模型并没有预测市场会上涨，尽管目前市场确实在涨。

Because I my formula doesn't tell me the market will go up, though the market has been going up right now.

你看，标普500今年整体涨了大约10%。

I mean, if you see the S and P 500 is around 10% up for the year.

但如果剔除科技公司，标普500今年只涨了大约5%。

But S and P 500 without the technology companies only around 5% up this year.

所以我觉得，一旦投资者——包括普通散户和经验丰富的老手——都意识到这些公司的盈利前景其实很艰难，情况就会发生变化。

So because of this, I feel once investors realize, once this message goes deeper to, you know, average investors also, the, you know, seasoned investors, that profitability for these companies is difficult.

市场可能会做出反应，价格也可能下跌。

Market could react and the prices could fall.

谢谢你的分享。

Thank you for those thoughts.

我还有一些后续问题，不过你能不能先跟观众简单介绍一下你的背景？

I have some follow-up questions, but I'm interested if you could remind our audience what your background is in.

这样也有助于大家更好地理解你的想法和策略。

I think that would be helpful also in understanding kind of your thoughts and strategies here.

当然。

Yes.

我毕业于哥伦比亚商学院，拿了MBA。

Basically, I have an MBA from Columbia Business School.

我做过各种不同的工作。

I've done many different type of work.

我一直在商学院教商业创新和金融课程。

So I've taught business innovation and finance in business schools.

我一直在为多家银行做监管项目的咨询工作。

I've been doing consulting in different banks for regulatory projects.

另外，如你所知，我为《Seeking Alpha》担任撰稿分析师已经将近二十年了。

Plus, I'm a contributing analyst at Seeking Alpha, as you know, for almost twenty years.

谢谢你的分享。

I appreciate that.

说到互联网泡沫，现在很多人喜欢拿现在的情况和当年做对比。

In terms of the .com and drawing parallels between what's happening now and a lot of parallels drawn.

我明白这种类比的逻辑。

I understand the reasoning.

很多人其实都理解为什么要把现在和当年相提并论。

I think a lot of people understand the reasoning behind drawing those parallels.

有人会说，当年互联网泡沫破灭后，其实也诞生了不少赢家，现在同样有机会找到这样的赢家。

Some of the answer to that some people would say some people would counter that there were winners to be had from the .com bust from the .com era that there are winners to be found.

第一，你认同现在也能找到这样的赢家吗？

A, would you agree that there are winners to be found?

这真的很难做到。

It's just very difficult to do that.

那些看起来会赢的，未必能坚持到最后。

And the winners that seem like they're going to be winners may not be the long term winners.

A。

A.

B，那咱们就先说到这儿吧。

And B, what would you well, let's leave it there.

你先同意这个说法吗？

Would you agree with that statement first?

是的。

Yes.

肯定会有赢家出现。

There will definitely be some winners.

比如Anthropic，我现在就能看出来，它比竞争对手强得多，尤其是在编程领域。

One of them, for example, Anthropic, I can see right now is much better compared to competitors, especially for coding area.

你可以完全不写代码，就做出一个完整的产品。

You can build an entire product with no by just no coding required for that.

所以我对Anthropic的Claude印象非常深。

So I I see I am very impressed by Anthropic, the Claude, basically.

我觉得这些公司里肯定会有胜出者。

So, I think some of these will definitely be winners.

但现实是，竞争这么激烈，价格一降，整个市场都会萎缩。

But the fact is, if there is so much competition and the prices go down, the market will go down.

市场一萎缩，所有人都会受影响，不可能只有一家公司能挺住，而其他全倒下。

When the market goes down, everybody goes It's not that one company will keep standing when the entire market goes down.

市场下滑的时候，哪怕是最顶尖的公司也会受挫。

When the market goes down, even the best companies go down.

等市场洗牌之后，才会看清楚哪些公司真正站稳了脚跟，哪些就彻底消失了。

And then, after the shakeout, will see that some companies will emerge as winners are stronger, others will just be vanishing.

很多公司都会消失。

Many companies will vanish.

而冠军公司可能需要很长时间才能显现出来。

And it can take a long time for the winner to emerge.

如果我请史蒂夫·克雷斯来做客，他肯定会说，他非常看好逢低买入，认为投资者就应该趁跌入手。

If I had somebody like Steve Kress on the show, he would say that he's a big fan of buying the dip, that investors should be buying the dip.

那你对这种说法怎么看？

What what would you say about that?

另外，你目前持有很多现金，这种策略算不算保守呢？

I guess, also, would you call your approach in terms of being very cash heavy right now, would you call that approach a conservative approach?

是的，今年我特别保守，因为我搞不懂市场为什么在涨。

Yeah, I'm very conservative this year because I don't know why it's going up.

就算它还在涨，我也觉得迟早会跌。

Even if it is going up, I have a feeling it will go down.

所以今年我态度非常谨慎。

So I'm very conservative this year.

等到真的跌下来，我就会考虑进场买入。

And yes, when the dip happens, I'll be interested to buy.

比如说SpaceX这家公司。

Like, for example, the SpaceX.

你看SpaceX股价涨了多少，现在又跌到什么位置。

SpaceX, you can see how much it it went up and where it is right now.

上市之后股价一度飙升，但现在从那高点大幅回落了。

The stock went up dramatically, you know, after the IPO, and now it's dramatically down from that.

我觉得这还只是刚开始。

And I feel it is just the beginning.

至少接下来几个月，股价还会继续下跌。

It will continue to go down at least for a few more months.

到时候可能会有买入的机会，我觉得是这样。

And then, yeah, there may be an opportunity to buy at that time, I would say.

我猜你对SpaceX的下跌并不意外。

And I'm guessing you're not surprised by that decline in SpaceX.

我感觉你早就料到会这样。

I'm sensing that you saw that coming.

没有，没有。

No, no.

我早就有这个预期。

I was expecting it.

我早就有这个预期。

I was expecting it.

这完全在预料之中。

No, it was totally expected.

我另一个问题是，我们之前在播客里聊过这个AI价值链，觉得可能连像Anthropic这样明显的玩家都还没冒出来。

My other question would be we've been having this conversation a bit on the podcast about this AI value chain and how there are maybe not even a player as obvious as anthropic.

上周末我好像跟克莱姆·钱伯斯聊过这个。

I was talking, I believe it was with Clem Chambers last weekend.

他说高盛现在其实是个挺有意思的AI投资标的，因为未来谁来为这个领域买单，很可能就是高盛这样的机构。

He was talking about Goldman Sachs is an interesting AI play at this point because who's gonna be funding this business going forward is somebody like Goldman Sachs.

你怎么看？另外也有人在讨论AI价值链上不同环节的未来机会，不是讲眼下正在发生的事，而是看接下来会怎么发展。

What would you and then there's also people that talk about different parts of the AI value chain, you know, in terms of what's coming, not necessarily what's happening right now.

说到人工智能的产业链，你觉得未来哪些领域或股票更有潜力呢？

What would you say in terms of speaking to the the AI value chain and and what may be coming or what stocks or sectors may be more promising than others?

对。

Yeah.

我之前分析过一些这类公司。

So I did some analysis on some of these companies.

比如谷歌、微软这些公司。

For example, you know, Google, Microsoft.

现在谁不是在搞人工智能呢？

Everybody's in AI now, right?

我重点看了谷歌、英伟达和美光这些头部企业。

So I looked at Google AI, NVIDIA, Micron, of these top companies.

我发现这些半导体公司的自由现金流普遍都很高。

And I noticed that the free cash flow is basically high with these semiconductor companies.

但像甲骨文、微软、谷歌这些公司，如果看它们的现金流，有的是负的，有的自由现金流也非常低。

Whereas other companies like Oracle, Microsoft, Google, if you look at their cash flow, some of them have negative cash flow and some of them have very low cash flow, free cash flow.

所以综合来看，我觉得半导体是我们最好的选择。

So therefore, I feel, looking at it, semiconductors are our best choice.

如果非得投钱在半导体上，那它们确实是最佳选项。

If you have to invest the money in the semiconductor, they're best.

你更看好哪些半导体公司？

What semiconductors do you like more than others?

有没有特别推荐的公司，或者具体关注哪些领域或方向？

Are there specific names that you would mention or specific kind of areas or points of focus?

是的。

Yeah.

我投资了英伟达、美光、辛杰夫，还有英特尔。

I've invested in NVIDIA, I've invested in Micron, Sanjeev, Intel.

这些就是我投资过的公司。

So those are some of the companies I've invested.

那你怎么判断什么时候该退出呢？

And then, how do you know how to get out of them?

这是个好问题，因为目前我觉得需求至少还会再持续几个月。

That's a good question because right now, I think the demand is still going to be there for a few more months at least.

但一旦出现下滑，所有东西都会跟着跌。

But when the dip happens, everything will go down.

所以我一直在想是不是该退出，但事实上，我已经赚了一部分利润了。

So I keep thinking about getting out of them, but the fact is that I've already taken out some profits.

所以我不太担心，毕竟我已经从这些股票里拿回了一部分收益。

So I'm not that worried because I already took some profits from them.

不过我觉得，再过几个月，我应该还是得退出，我觉得是这样。

But I think I should get out of them after some, you know, in the next few months, I think so.

那什么样的信号会表明该出手了呢？

What's going to be like a telltale sign that

这很难说。

It's difficult.

确切的时机很难预测，因为我觉得半导体的需求还会持续，而且它们的自由现金流也不错。

The exact time is very difficult to predict because the demand for semiconductors, I feel, will continue, then their free their free cash flow is good.

谁赢谁输其实都没关系。

And it doesn't matter who is the winner.

你终究需要这些基础设施。

You will you will need the infrastructure.

你得有GPU。

You will need the GPUs.

你得有内存。

You will need the memory.

这就是我的看法。

So that's what I think.

不过，比如美光这家公司。

But, yes, for example, micron.

你看看美光的远期市盈率，才六倍。

If you look at the forward b micron, it's six.

像这样的公司，我有什么好担心的呢？

So, I mean, why should I be worried about a company like that?

即使股价下跌，这家公司的前瞻市盈率也只有六。

Even if it goes down, then the forward PE of a company is six.

简直太便宜了。

It's damn cheap.

桑吉夫，我最近在谈话快结束时总会问别人，他们在投资或生活中有没有什么座右铭。

Sanjeev, I've been asking people towards the end of conversations if they have a motto when it comes to investing or life.

你有没有什么一直坚持的投资或生活准则？

Do you have a motto that you live or invest by?

有。

Yeah.

主要是看整体市场，因为以前我只做价值投资，但后来我发现，一旦市场下跌，不管是价值股还是其他股票，全都跟着跌。

Mainly, I think, overall market because, you know, I used to be a value investor earlier, only doing value investing, but I realized when the market goes down, it doesn't matter whether it is value stock or broad stock, everything goes down.

所以现在，我基本上算是个宏观投资者。

So right now, I think I am basically a macro person.

先分析宏观形势，再决定要不要继续投资。

Looking at the macro and then deciding whether to stay invested or not.

如果你很确定的话，去年你还记得吧，我们聊过，我觉得是四月份，那时候市场跌得很惨。

If you are sure, like last year, if you remember, we talked, I think it was in April, talked, market was way down at that time.

我当时就说，市场会涨起来。

And I said, market will go up.

所以我早就知道市场会反弹。

So I knew market will go up.

于是我就买了好多看涨期权。

So I just bought a lot of call options.

那段时间它们给我带来了不错的回报。

They did well for me at that time.

从宏观或市场角度，你还有什么想说的吗？

Anything else you would say macro wise or market wise?

从这次对话中，你还有什么想留给投资者的建议吗？

Anything else that you would leave investors with from this conversation?

有。

Yeah.

我觉得吧，现在大家都盯着每股收益。

I would say, see, everybody is focused on earnings per share.

公司能提升每股收益，是因为能裁员，还能用人工智能，提高效率，对吧。

Companies are able to increase their earnings per share because they can cut down people, they can use AI, right, improve efficiency.

但归根结底，任何经济的驱动力都是消费者。

But ultimately, the driver in any economy is the consumer.

目前来看，消费者的状况并不好。

Right now, the consumer is in a bad shape.

其实所谓的AI，换个说法，就是反福特主义。

This basically the AI is nothing but you can also call it anti Fordism.

你知道，现代经济的核心动力，其实是亨利·福特发明的流水线。

You know, the central driver of this modern economy is basically what Henry Ford invented, is basically the assembly line.

对吧？

Right?

我们现在做的，是把每个任务——不管是制造、服务、银行还是任何办公室的工作——都拆解出来。

What we have done is every task, it doesn't matter whether it is manufacturing or it is services or it is a bank or it is any office, what we have done is we have taken a task.

我们把整个流程拆成很多小任务，让每个人专攻其中一项。

We taken a process, divided it into multiple tasks, small, small tasks, and asked people to specialize in those tasks.

然后给的工资也够高，哪怕不是最聪明的人，也能很快学会，天天干，拿不错的薪水，把账都还了。

And we paid them well enough so that anybody, even if he's not the brightest person, he can learn the task very well and then basically do the job on a regular basis, get a good salary, and then pay off his bills.

现代经济就是靠这个撑起来的。

That's what this modern economy is based on.

对吧？

Right?

现在，人工智能正好打在了这个关键点上。

Now, AI is basically hitting at that exact point.

所以人工智能说白了就是反福特主义。

So AI is nothing but anti Fordism.

对吧？

Right?

所以我觉得，正因如此，这其实是个很大的风险。

So I I feel because of that, it is a serious risk.

大家都明白这是个严重的问题。

Everybody knows it's a serious risk.

我讲的不是什么新东西。

I'm not saying something new.

但AI已经影响到普通消费者了，现在通胀高企，工资没怎么涨，就业岗位也没快速增加。

But it it has already started impacting an average consumer because their inflation is high right now and wages are not growing, jobs are not growing that fast.

所以今年内，肯定会对市场造成影响，可能就在年初。

So it will definitely impact the market sometime this year or sometime early this year.

但我感觉，今年就会发生。

But I have a feeling it will be this year.

桑吉夫，感谢你抽出时间。

Sanjeev, thank you for your time.

很高兴你再次回来，跟我们分享你的见解。

Appreciate you coming back on, sharing your insights with us.

我知道很多投资者都觉得很有帮助。

I I think many I I know many investors find it helpful.

谢谢您抽出时间。

So thanks for taking the time.

大家想联系您，最好的方式是通过 Seeking Alpha 吗？

Is the best way for people to get in touch with you via Seeking Alpha?

是的。

Yes.

也可以通过我的领英账号找到我的信息，Seeking Alpha 上也提供了我的邮箱。

Or or my LinkedIn also, you will find my details, and the email is also available on Seeking Alpha.

非常感谢，雷娜。

Thanks a lot, Rena.

提醒一下，本播客中的所有内容均不构成投资建议。

Just a reminder, anything you hear on this podcast should not be considered investment advice.

仅供娱乐参考，投资前请咨询持证专业人士。

This is for entertainment purposes only, and you should seek advice from a licensed professional before investing.

如果您喜欢本期节目，请在您常用的播客平台留下评分或评论，我们下期再见。

If you enjoyed the episode, leave a rating or review on your favorite podcasting app, and we'll see you soon with a new episode.