SpaceX, telecom sell-off, Micron's A grades, Steve Cress origin story

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

希望大家喜欢今天这期节目，嘉宾是史蒂文·克雷斯。

Hope you enjoy today's episode with mister Steven Cress.

我想告诉大家，这期节目有点特别，算是组合型的一期。

I wanted to let you know that this is a combination episode of sorts.

这是我和他最近做的一次访谈，我们在美光发布财报那天，把其中一段放到了我们的《华尔街午餐》播客里，这样《华尔街早餐》和史蒂文·克雷斯的粉丝们就能听到他对美光的看法，无论是财报前还是财报后的预期。

It's an interview I did with him recently that we included an excerpt of on our Wall Street lunch podcast, the day of Micron earnings, to give followers of Wall Street Breakfast and Stephen Cress a chance to hear his thoughts on Micron, both pre and post earnings or his thoughts on what that might look like.

另外，史蒂夫和我还一起做了一个晨间节目，完整版发在YouTube上，部分内容发在TikTok和X（也就是以前的推特）上。

We have also, Steve and I, been doing a morning show that we've been releasing on YouTube in full and on TikTok and x slash Twitter in part.

我们一直在分享史蒂夫从量化角度对当天股票异动、市场新闻以及市场动态的见解。

And we have been sharing Steve's insights from a quant perspective on that day's stock movers, on that day's market news, and what's happening in the markets from Steve and his quant perspective.

所以大家可以在YouTube、X或TikTok上关注我们，账号是CressTopStocks。

So you can follow us at CressTopStocks on YouTube, x, or TikTok.

希望大家会关注。

We hope you will.

告诉我们你想听什么内容。

And let us know what you wanna hear about.

告诉我们你想多听些什么。

Let us know what you wanna hear more of.

告诉我们你想少听些什么。

Let us know what you wanna hear less of.

希望你喜欢我们今天聊到的史蒂夫的成长故事。

I hope you enjoy Steve's origin story also that we get into today.

我自己第一次听史蒂夫讲的时候，就觉得特别有意思，所以我就请他在这里跟大家分享一下。

I, for one, found it very interesting when I heard it myself from Steve, and so I asked him to share it here for all of you.

希望你喜欢这一期节目。

Hope you enjoy this episode.

欢迎回到《投资专家》的又一期节目。

Welcome back everybody to another episode of Investing Experts.

今天，我很高兴请到了史蒂夫·克雷斯，相信大家也都很高兴能听到他的分享。

Today, I am happy to have on Steve Cress, as I'm sure you are all happy to hear from him.

美光马上就要发财报了。

Micron is about to report.

这家公司史蒂夫之前提过。

It's a company that Steve has talked about.

它一直是Alpha精选股，我们在YouTube上的《华尔街早餐》节目里和史蒂夫·克雷斯一起讨论过。

It's been an Alpha picks for quite some time as we discuss on YouTube's very own Wall Street Breakfast with Steve CressTopStocks.

史蒂夫，你看财报的时候主要关注什么？

Steve, what are you looking at when you're looking at earnings?

首先，谢谢你今天邀请我。

Well, first, thanks for having me today.

很感谢。

Appreciate it.

没错，美光是投资者关注的最大股票之一，今天他们要公布业绩。

Absolutely, Micron is amongst one of the largest stocks that investors are focusing on, and today they report results.

所以美光很快就要发布财报，而且这是一只量化选股标的。

So Micron will be reporting shortly and it is a quant name.

我们长期以来一直对它持强烈买入评级，市场对它也抱有很高的期望。

We've had a strong buy on it for a long time, and the market is expecting good things out of it.

幸运的是，美光上次在标准化和GAAP基础上都表现非常好。

Fortunately, Micron had a really good beat last time on both the normalized and GAAP basis.

有八次超出预期，零次未达预期。

There were eight beats and zero misses.

所以对于即将到来的季度，按标准化每股收益计算，我们预计是31.82美元，这是市场共识。

So for the upcoming quarter on a normalized EPS basis, we're looking for $31.82, that's consensus.

而共识差距是31.94美元，简直是百分之千的增长。

And consensus gap, it's $31.94, literally thousand percent growth.

我们也会点击美光的页面，然后直接进入收益页面，这里会显示9月30日的共识，正如我之前提到的，标准化和GAAP都是31.82美元。

So we're also gonna click on the Micron page, then we're gonna go right to the earnings page here and it will show you for September 30 consensus is, as I mentioned before, it's $31.82 on normalized and GAAP.

你还可以看到，在过去的九十天里，有12位分析师上调了他们的预测，只有两位下调了。

You can also see that in the last ninety days coming to this quarter, 12 analysts revised their estimates up and two revised it down.

对于整个财年，有13位分析师上调了预测，只有一位下调了。

For the full year, for the fiscal year, 13 analysts revised their estimates up and only one revised it down.

而且如果你看它右边，可以看到那是C+的评级，所以你会觉得13个上调、1个下调应该比C+要好。

And if you look to the right of it, can see that's a C plus grade, so you would think 13 up, one down is better than a C plus.

它其实会显示行业的中位数，所以86%的...

It actually shows you what the sector median is, so 86% are...

分析师们预期这个行业会有不错的业绩超预期。

Analysts are expecting that the sector has good beats.

美光科技是92%，所以这个数字大约高出7.84%。

Micron, it's 92%, so that number is higher by about 7.84%.

所以对我来说，整体上这是相当积极的，之所以只是C+，是因为还有其他公司有20位分析师上调了预期，而没有人下调。

So that to me is pretty positive overall, that's only C plus because there are other companies where you have 20 analysts that have revised their estimates up and zero have revised it down.

但13比1在我看来仍然是非常好的。

But 13 to one is still really good in my book.

如果你再往下滚动一点，你可以找到2026年8月和2027年8月的年度每股收益预估，以及营收。

If you scroll down a little bit more, you could find annual EPS estimates for August 2026 and August 2027, as well as revenue.

你也可以看看各个季度，看看他们有多少次超出预期。

And you could just take a look at the quarters too and look how many times they've beat.

从2023年第三季度开始，他们每次都超过了预期。

They've beaten every time since the third quarter of twenty twenty three.

所以他们的业务表现非常出色。

So their business is just doing fantastic.

你可以看到每次超出的幅度都在变大，最近更是远远超过了预期。

You can see how much every time the beat gets a little bit better and recently it's just been blown out of the water.

我的意思是，一年前的第三季度，他们每股收益是32美分，然后你看一年前的第二季度，是1美元56美分，超出了14美分。

I mean, third quarter a year ago, they came in at 32¢ and then you could see if you look at the second quarter from a year ago, it came in at a dollar 56, the beat was by 14¢.

所以看今年的第二季度，从1美元56美分涨到了12美元20美分。

So looking at the second quarter of this year, it went from a dollar 56 to $12.20.

所以他们的每股收益增长速度真是惊人。

So this is just extreme in terms of how fast their EPS it's growing.

那么今天我会期待什么呢？

So what would I expect today?

我们有量化模型给出强力买入评级，所有我们关注的关键投资特征——估值、增长、盈利能力和动能——都是A+。

We have the quant with a strong buy, all the key investment characteristics that we look at, valuation growth, profitability, and momentum, all A pluses.

唯一稍微低一点的是分析师修正，但就像我说的，那是13个上调，1个下调。

The only one that's a little bit lower is the analyst revisions, but as I said, that's 13 up, one down.

这个结果我随时都接受。

I'll take that any day.

所以从基本面来看，这只股票看起来仍然非常好。

So the stocks still looks really great from a fundamental perspective.

不过我要说，它仍然远低于52周高点。

I will say it is still significantly off its fifty two week high.

目前交易价格是1069美元，我们能看到6月份时股价大约在1200美元左右，所以52周区间很宽，最低1.65美元，最高1255美元。

So currently trading at $1,069, we could see that back in June, the stock was trading at around, looks like it's closer to about $1,200, So that fifty two week range is very wide, had a low of $1.65 and a high of 1,255.

所以它仍然接近高位，但还是明显低于6月的高点。

So it's still closer to the high side, but still significantly off its June highs.

而且无论如何，你又会迎来一个创纪录的营收和盈利季度。

And for all intents and purposes, you're gonna have another quarter of record revenue and record earnings.

上次你来的时候，你谈到了...

So last time you were on, you were talking about...

你上次来的时候，你主张逢低买入，特别是Credo，还有其他一些股票。

You were making the case for buying the dip notably with Credo, but some other stocks as well.

那期节目下面有人留了条评论。

And a comment was left on that episode.

史蒂文，我是你的忠实订阅者。

Steven, I am a faithful subscriber.

不过，我希望那些强烈推荐的买入建议能考虑一下入场价格。

However, I wish the strong buy recommendations would take the entry price into consideration.

逢低买入是个好建议，但推荐在股票处于历史高位时买入可能会带来不必要的风险，尤其是对新投资者来说。

Buying on a dip is great advice, but recommending a purchase when a stock is at an all time high can create unnecessary risk, especially for new investors.

最近的市场变化已经凸显了追高的风险。

The recent market changes have highlighted some of the risks of buying at the top.

我理解史蒂文可能不相信择时，但低买高卖能让你的粉丝受益匪浅。

I understand that Steven may not believe in timing the market, but buying low and selling high could greatly benefit your followers.

关于那条评论，有个回复，我想读一下。

There was an answer to that that I just wanna read.

人们总是会有这种争论。

People have this kind of argument all the time.

我理解，但这是投资者必须克服的心理障碍。

I get it, but this is the mental barrier an investor has to get over with.

在历史高点买入确实很难，但你要知道，错过上涨和抓住回调，风险是一样的。

Buying at all time highs is so hard, but yes, you're just as equally missing on the train as actually getting the dip.

所以，等待回调只是让你心里舒服，并不会给你带来数学上的优势。

So trying to wait for a pullback just satisfies your mind, not giving you a mathematical advantage.

哇。

Wow.

这个回应真不错。

What a good response.

比我说得好多了。

That's much better than I could have said it.

我就知道你会喜欢。

I thought you might like it.

真的，说得太好了。

Really, really good response.

你有什么要补充的吗？

Any 2¢ you would add to that?

说实话，没人真正知道哪只股票的高点会在哪里，尤其是当它表现特别好的时候。

Mean, I nobody frankly knows what a high is gonna be with any stock especially when that's doing particularly well.

你完全可以说，在2000年或1999年，亚马逊已经到了高点，或者Facebook已经到了高点。

You clearly could have said in the year 2000 or 1999 that you know, Amazon was at a high or Facebook was at a high.

或者你也可以说英伟达已经到了高点。

So, or you could have said Nvidia was at a high.

所以真的几乎不可能判断一只股票什么时候会到高点。

So it's really almost impossible to tell when a stock will be at a high.

不过，如果我们建议在高点卖出，那并不是因为股价创了52周新高，而是因为估值框架、增长框架或者盈利能力发生了变化。

However, if we recommend selling when the stock is at a high, It's not being sold because the stock is at a 52 week high, it's being sold because the valuation framework has changed or the growth framework or the profitability.

所以我们展示的因子评级，你可以看到美光在所有的修正上调中都是A+，而那是C+。

So the factor grades that we show, you could see it's A plus for Micron for all the mix up revisions, which is a C plus.

这就是我们做决策的依据。

And that is the basis of which our decision is made on.

当我们看这些关键投资特征时，我们会有这些评级。

When we look at these key investment characteristics, we have those grades.

这些都是基于行业相对比较的。

It's all on a sector relative basis.

所以你看估值的时候，就知道它相对于行业其他公司来说是便宜的。

So when you look at valuation, you know that it is cheap compared to the rest of the sector.

看增长的时候，你知道增长远强于行业平均水平。

If you look at growth, you know the growth is far stronger than the sector.

所以如果我们给出卖出建议，比如，可能是因为估值评级是F，或者增长率是D，或者盈利能力评级是D，或者修正评级是D。

So if we have a sell, by example, it could be because that valuation grade is an F or the growth rate is a D or the profitability grade is a D or the revisions grade is a D.

这就是我们考虑强力买入、买入、持有、卖出和强力卖出决策的因素。

And that's what we factor into our strong buy, buy, hold, sell, and strong sell decisions.

而不是因为股票创了52周新高。

And it's not on the basis that the stock has set a fifty two week high.

非常感谢。

Much appreciated.

您愿意谈谈您认为该行业会如何随着美光科技而变动吗？

Care to weigh in on what you imagine how the sector may move in conjunction with Micron?

再说一次，没有人有水晶球，即使您也没有，但基于您在市场上的丰富经验。

Again, nobody has a crystal ball, even you, but based on your rich history in the markets.

美光今天发布财报，他们可能有创纪录的收入或盈利，但股价仍然可能下跌。

Micron reports today, they could have record revenue or record earnings, and it's quite possible the stock can still come down.

举个例子，当英伟达发布财报时，他们有创纪录的收入和盈利，超出预期，但当天股价还是下跌了。

Case in point, when NVIDIA reported, they had record revenue, record earnings, beat expectations, and the stock still came down that day.

所以我们显然处于一个市场情绪比基本面更重要的时期，情绪是负面的，或者焦虑很高，即使是因为地缘政治事件或利率变动、十年期国债或三十年国债或经济数据点，所有这些都可能影响市场，明天可能还会有经济数据点影响市场。

So we're clearly in a market where sentiment gets a heavier weight than fundamentals, and sentiment is negative or anxiety is high even on a day because of perhaps geopolitical events or movements in interest rates, the ten year treasury or the thirty year treasury or economic data points that can come out, all we could impact and there'll probably be economic data points tomorrow that could impact the market.

但现在，我们看到黄金略高，如果看国债，十年期国债也略高。

But right now, we're looking at gold a little bit higher, and if we look at treasuries, we could see the ten year treasury is a little bit higher too.

所以市场可能对明天的情况感到不安，它会关注美光科技的财报表现。

So the market may not feel comfortable with that going into tomorrow, It will look to Micron Technology to see what earnings are like.

我猜，现在十年期国债收益率稍微上升，布伦特原油也涨了2%，但市场今天其实还小幅上涨。我就看看今天的情况，从今天的表现来看，科技板块是表现最好的，通信服务紧随其后。

My guess is with the ten year treasury up a little bit now and with Brent up 2% now, the market is actually up slightly on the day, and I'm just gonna look at today and sort of by today's performance, you can actually see technology is the best performing sector with communication services right behind it.

表现较差的是必需消费品和医疗保健，这些传统上都是避险板块。

Then the underperformers are consumer staples and health care, which traditionally are really safe haven sectors.

所以今天避险板块表现不错，但市场更关注风险偏好较高的板块。

So the safe haven sectors are trading well today, a little bit more focused on the risk on sectors.

话虽如此，在风险偏好较高的板块内部，情况可能更细致一些。

Having said that, within the risk on sectors, it could be a little bit granular.

所以我要看看主题和子板块，我会深入科技板块，看看今天科技板块的表现如何。

So what I'm gonna do is look at themes and sub sectors, and I'm gonna go down to technology so I could see how technology is playing out today.

总体来看，科技板块是表现最好的，其中网络安全和半导体表现尤为突出。

So overall technology is best performing sector, and within it, we see cybersecurity and semiconductors are outperforming within technology.

表现较差的是区块链、智能手机和社交媒体。

The underperformers are blockchain, smartphones, and social media.

不过这只是今天的情况。

Now that's just on the day.

所以我觉得现在市场对半导体板块相当乐观，也许如果我们明天没有吓人的经济数据，而且美光财报不错的话，我们就能处于有利位置。距离收盘还有不到半小时，美光股价略有上涨。

So I'd say the market is fairly positive right now on the semiconductors so perhaps if we do have a good number and we don't have an economic data point tomorrow that scares everybody, we could be in good shape of Micron beats today and going into the closing hours with less than a half hour ago, we can see Micron's up slightly.

我觉得大多数人都在预期财报会超预期，所以我认为要推动股价上涨，必须得是一个相当好的超预期才行。

I think most people are expecting a beat, so it's gonna have to be a pretty good beat I think in order to move the needle.

我提到过你在市场上的丰富经历，我觉得自己很幸运能经常和你交流。最近我从史蒂夫那里听到一个故事，我觉得非常适合做一期播客，而且他以前从未分享过。

So I alluded to your rich history in the markets and I consider myself very fortunate to get to speak with you fairly often And I recently heard a story from Steve that I thought was a perfect fit for a podcast episode, and he has never shared it before.

我请他分享的。

And I asked him to.

我觉得了解你在量化系统之前、在加入Seeking Alpha之前、在开启职业生涯新篇章之前是什么样的人，非常有意思。

I find it very interesting to get a sense of who you were before the quant system, before you came to Seeking Alpha, before you started your next chapter of your career.

史蒂夫，如果你不介意的话，分享一下你的起源故事吧，考虑到你现在的位置，你愿意分享吗？

If you wouldn't mind, Steve, sharing your, I would consider your origin story considering where you're sitting today, if you wouldn't mind sharing that.

是的，当然可以。

Yeah, absolutely.

我职业生涯的大部分时间都在摩根士丹利，在那里待了十三年，其中大部分时间我负责量化策略的自营交易台。

So I spent the bulk of my career at Morgan Stanley, was there for thirteen years, for good course of that time, I ran a prop trading desk in quantitative strategies.

不过在那之前，我其实做的是机构销售。

However, before that, I actually used to be in institutional sales.

从机构销售转到交易的人其实挺少见的。

And it's pretty rare that you have somebody move over from institutional sales into trading.

这个转变的契机正好是在TMT泡沫破裂的时候。

And the way that developed was really at the back of the TMT bubble and the explosion in that bubble.

所以，你会发现如果我……

So, you'll notice if I...

我最近写的几篇文章也关注了当前AI基础设施的建设，以及很多大公司现在在提供融资。

A couple of my recent articles are also focusing sort of in the current AI infrastructure build out and many larger companies that are now providing financing.

这让人想起TMT泡沫那会儿。

It is reminiscent of the TMT bubble.

所以我强烈推荐大家去看看那些文章，但我不想把故事扯得太远。

So I would definitely recommend looking at those articles, but I don't wanna get off the point of the story too much.

我做机构销售那会儿，手上有公司最大的几个客户。

When I was in institutional sales, I had some of the firm's largest accounts.

泡沫破裂之后，那些客户对摩根士丹利非常不满。

On the backside of the bubble bursting, the accounts were not happy with Morgan Stanley.

我们之前给这些机构安排了很多科技交易，大部分都亏得一塌糊涂，而摩根士丹利当时是很多科技项目的主要承销商，行情好的时候，这些公司……

We had placed a lot of tech deals with these institutions, most of which had blown up and Morgan Stanley at the time was a lead banker in a lot of technology deals and when the going was good and many of these companies were...

它们的股价疯涨，尤其是在几乎没有收入或盈利的情况下，那会儿就是那个时代，但泡沫一破，客户几乎都不想理我了。

Their stock prices were going crazy, especially on the back of real no revenue or earnings, it was sort of the the era that we were in, but when that bubble burst, the accounts barely wanted to talk to me.

我大概有十二个客户，就像我说的，其中一些是机构那边最大的客户。

And I had about a dozen accounts, as I said, there were some of the largest ones on the institutional side.

于是我决定改变一下我每天的工作方式。

And I decided to sort of switch up the way I work on a daily basis.

按照传统做法，早上会有研究会议，分析师会给出升级、降级或更新报告，然后你把这些消息传达给客户。

Conventionally or traditionally what you would do is you would have a research meeting in the morning, research analysts would come out with upgrades or downgrades or updates, and you would communicate those stories to your clients.

但客户变得越来越不买账。

And the clients just really became less and less receptive.

所以我试着把业务重点放在客户的具体需求上，我开始开发筛选工具，在筛选工具里，我会根据每个客户特定的基金主题，为他们制定关注重点。

So I tried to get my business to focus specifically on the client's needs and I started developing screens and within the screens, I would try to create a focus for each of my clients in terms of what their particular fund theme was.

所以如果客户是价值型的，我就做价值筛选；如果是成长型基金，我就做成长筛选；如果是GARP型的，我就做GARP筛选。

So if a client had value, I had value screens, if a client had a growth fund, I would create growth screens, If they had a GARP, I would create a GARP screen.

在这些筛选里，我们会按这些指标排序，然后给公司排名。

And within those screens, we would sort by those metrics and we could rank the companies.

而且在这个筛选工具里，我做了个当时挺有创意的东西——你可以直接点击股票名称，然后就会弹出摩根士丹利的研究报告，那时候大概是2000年、2001年、2002年吧。

And part of that screen, I created something which was fairly innovative at the time, they have the ability to click on the name of the stock and it would actually bring up a Morgan Stanley research report that we're talking about like the year 2000, 2001, 2002.

所以当时做出那个技术，其实是个挺独特的功能。

So creating that technology at the time was actually kind of a unique feature.

我开始把这个发给客户，他们真的很喜欢。

Started sending that out to my clients and they really liked it.

我用这些筛选工具帮他们做了很多工作，而且他们还能看到摩根士丹利的独立研究，当屏幕上出现某只股票时，就能直接看到相关报告。

I did a lot of their work for them with these screens and then also given the ability to get that independent research from Morgan Stanley when they saw a stock come up on the screen, that screen well.

当然，这不代表摩根士丹利一定会给出买入或强烈买入的评级，但我们是以数据为基础的。

Now that doesn't mean that Morgan Stanley necessarily would have had a buy or strong buy at it, but we write it on a data driven basis.

所以这个工具变得很受欢迎，不过不一定受我上级的欢迎。

So it became very popular, not necessarily popular with the people that I reported to.

我的一些经理质疑我在做什么，他们说，记住你的工作重点基本上就是推广摩根士丹利的研究报告和安排交易，这在当时几乎是不可能的，因为客户都非常不满。

Some of my managers like were questioning what I was doing and they're like, remember the focus of your job is basically pumping up Morgan Stanley's research and placing deals, which virtually was impossible at that time because the clients were so upset.

我们和他们做的很多交易都下跌了30%、40%、50%。

Many of the deals that we had placed with them had gone down by 30, 40, 50%.

当我为他们运行这些筛选时，客户实际上很喜欢，而且它变得更受欢迎。

When I was running these screens for them, the clients actually liked it and it became more popular.

在我做这件事的过程中，我逐渐形成了自己的筛选方法，我开发的第一个筛选方法之一，是想找出近年来表现良好、没有暴跌20%、30%、40%或50%的公司，并找出当时有效的指标。

And as I was doing it, I kind of came up with my own screens and one of the first screens I developed, I wanted to uncover companies that had done well in recent years that did not explode and decline by 20, 30 or 40 or 50% and identified metrics that worked at that time.

在那个时期，我最早的模型之一就是结合每股股息增长和净资产收益率增长。

And at that periods, really one of my first models was using dividend per share growth and ROE growth combined.

我能够发现，当整个市场大部分都在崩溃时，工业股和金属矿业股却表现异常出色。

And I was able to uncover that there were industrial stocks and metal and mining stocks that were doing incredibly well when the entire market for the most part was going to hell in a handbasket.

我创建了这些筛选，客户们确实非常关注。

And I created these screens and the clients really paid attention to it.

而且，我和一个衍生品部门合作，虽然那个部门和我的部门完全无关——我是在一个纯粹的股票研究部门——我们一起创建了互换产品。

And with a derivative desk, which was not related to my desk at all, I was in a straightforward equity research desk, I worked with a derivative desk to create swaps.

所以我可以向客户推荐一篮子股票，可能有二三十只，但通过互换，他们只需买入一种证券，就像买ETF一样。

So I could recommend a basket of socks to a client that could be 20 or 30 socks, but with a swap, they were able to buy just one security similar to what you do with an ETF.

我的经理们不太高兴，因为我花了不少时间在这上面，但最终我成功完成了两笔互换交易。

My managers were not happy as I was taking a fair amount of my time, but eventually I was actually able to place two of the swaps.

这些互换表现非常好，实际上为摩根士丹利赚了不少佣金。

The swaps performed incredibly well and they actually generated a good commission for Morgan Stanley.

然后我的经理们态度转变了，从“你在干什么？”变成了“你在干什么？”

So then my managers tuned and switched from like, what are you doing?

变成了“你在干什么？”

To like, what are you doing?

带着兴趣。

With interest.

做了几个月之后，交易主管注意到了我在做的事情，而且消息传开了，说这些篮子的表现非常强劲。

And after doing that for a couple months, the head of trading caught on to what I was doing and word was getting around that the performance of these baskets were really strong.

就在那时，我从机构销售转到了自营交易，并管理一个基于量化策略的部门。

And that's when I made the switch from being an institutional sales to prop trading and running a desk that was based on quantitative strategies.

所以这真的是在TMTR动荡中诞生的努力，我的量化生涯就是这样开始的。

So it was really an effort born out of the turmoil of the TMTR, and that's how my quant career started.

非常感谢你的分享。

I appreciate that very much.

那是什么……

What was...

从那时到CressTop被Seeking Alpha收购，中间的时间线是怎样的？

What's the timeline between that and getting CressTop purchased by Seeking Alpha?

自营交易部门大概在2003年左右开始运作，运行筛选程序也是在2003年左右。

So the prop desk efforts started roughly around 2003, running running the screens right around 2003.

然后2007年发生了金融危机，第二年出台了一部法律，当时被称为沃尔克法或沃尔克规则，它禁止投资银行拿客户资金冒险，或者动用过多自有资金，以免危及商业银行业务。

And then we had the financial crisis occur in 2007 and the following year, there was a law that came out which was known at the time as the Volcker Law or the Volcker Rule, which prohibited investment banks from risking client capital or enough of the bank's own capital that it could put the commercial side of the business at risk.

所以基本上，这终结了大型一级金融机构的自营交易时代。

So basically it ended the era of prop trading for the large tier one firms.

那个时代结束了。

That ended.

从那里开始，我最终搬到了北方信托，在那里我负责国际业务，资产管理部门的业务发展，那段时间其实进展得挺顺利的，而且那也是在金融危机的高峰期，但我积累了很多资产管理经验。之后，我创办了自己的对冲基金，运营了几年。同时，在我运营对冲基金的时候，我还推出了一家金融科技公司，就是CressTop投资研究，那家公司后来变得非常有意思。

And from there, I moved to Northern Trust eventually, where I was ahead of international, the asset management division for business development and that really went fairly well and that was during, you know, a peak period for the financial crisis as well, but I got a lot of asset management experience and from that, I started my own hedge fund that I ran for a couple of years and simultaneously when I was running my own hedge fund, I launched a FinTech company which was CressTop Investment Research, and that is a business that became really interesting.

我们主要创造的东西，当时没人真的把它叫做AI，但我们把我为对冲基金开发的系统化模型，还有我在摩根士丹利运行的那些东西，基本上都是这些量化策略的系统化流程。

Largely what we created, mean, nobody really referred to it as AI at the time, but we took the systematic models that I had developed for my hedge fund and largely, you know, what I ran for Morgan Stanley as well, it was a systematic process for these quantitative strategies.

所以它变得非常自动化，我还把它和自然语言处理结合了起来。

So it became very autonomous and I combined that with natural language processing.

所以，任何你能看到的公司，你只要输入公司名称或股票代码，它就会利用当天的数据，当场生成一份自动化的投资研究报告。

So every company that you could look at, you'd literally type in the name of the company or ticker symbol, and it would generate an autonomous investment research on the spot using data from that day.

当我在2016年、2017年做这件事的时候，信不信由你，人们很难理解电脑能生成投资研究报告。

When I did this in like 2016, 2017, believe it or not, people had a hard time getting their head around that a computer could generate an investment research report.

我知道在今天这个AI时代，我们经常从AI那里得到股票推荐，而且有很多很多网站和平台使用系统化的数据驱动流程。

I know today in this day and age of AI, where we get stock recommendations all the time from AI and there's many many sites and platforms that use systematic data driven processes.

但在当时，其实也没过多久，机构投资者和个人投资者都习惯了由个人撰写研究报告。

Back then, and it wasn't even that long ago, institutional investors and individual investors were so accustomed to having research reports written by an individual.

所以那在当时真的是一个前沿的举动，Seeking Alpha看到了我在做的事情，他们很喜欢。顺便说一下背景，大卫·杰克逊和我，大卫是Seeking Alpha的创始人，我们实际上在摩根士丹利的时候曾经一起工作过。

So it was really sort of a leading edge movement at the time and Seeking Alpha saw what I was doing and they liked it, and by way of background, David Jackson and I, David is the founder of Seeking Alpha, we actually used to work with each other at the same time at Morgan Stanley.

所以我们在Seeking Alpha重新联系上了，他们有一个新闻和众包研究的平台，主要是定性投资研究。

So we reconnected at Seeking Alpha, they had a platform of news and crowdsourced research, which is qualitative investment research.

我这边有定量分析的部分，所以这真的是一个很好的互补，既能从Seeking Alpha的贡献者那里得到定性分析，又能有每天更新的定量分析。

I had the quantitative aspect to it, so it added a really nice complement to be able to have the qualitative analysis from the contributors at Seeking Alpha and then have the quant analysis which updated every single day.

定量分析提供最新的数据，而且定量分析真正做的事情是，如果你去很多其他系统化网站或者像彭博、路透这样的供应商，我们在Seeking Alpha做的是真正为人们解读数据，而不是仅仅给出原始数据并基于原始数据进行排名，这种解读是通过因子评级来实现的。

And the quant provides fresh numbers and really what the quant does, which like if you went to many other systematic sites or just even vendors like Bloomberg or Reuters, what we do at Seeking Alpha is we actually interpret the data for people instead of just giving them the absolute data and ranking on absolute data and that interpretation are through the factor grades.

这些因子评级让你一眼就能看出一家公司在价值、成长或盈利能力方面相对于同行业的表现。

Those factor grades give you an instant characterization of how a company looks on value, growth, or profitability compared to the sector.

我得告诉你，如果你整天盯着大量数据，或者用流行的话说，我们称之为z分数，那么看看那个学术字母评级，就能立刻了解该公司指标相对于行业的情况，这要容易得多。

And I have to tell you, if you're looking just at a lot of data all day long or in the pop world, we refer to it as z scores, it's so much easier to take a look at that academic letter grade and get that instant characterization of that company's metric compared to the sector.

这真的能帮你节省很多时间，而且更容易消化。

It just saves you a lot of time and it's much easier to absorb.

所以这就是我用CressTop投资研究创建的过程的一部分，它和Seeking Alpha非常契合。

So that was part of the process that I had created with CressTop Investment Research, and it really dovetailed very nicely to Seeking Alpha.

所以我们在2019年初走到了一起，之后的事情大家都知道了。

So we came together in the beginning of twenty nineteen, and the rest is history.

我们开发了量化评级，为ETF开发了评级，还开发了股息评级，也就是一家公司相对于其所在行业的股息安全性和股息增长情况。

We've developed the quant grades, we developed grades for ETFs, we developed dividend grades, the dividend safety and dividend growth of a company relative to its sector.

这些股息安全评级非常棒，因为你在其他任何网站上都找不到。如果你依赖股票产生的收入，你真的需要知道股息是否安全。所以当你点击它时，你可以看到构成该股息安全评级的基础指标。我很高兴地说，如果你持有一只股息安全评级在B-到A+之间的股票，从2010年至今，你有98%的概率避免了股息被削减。

And these dividend safety grades are great because you really can't get them on any other site, and if you are dependent on income generation from stocks, you really wanna know that dividend is safe, So when you click on it, you could see the underlying metrics that make up that dividend safety grade and I'm really pleased to say that if you own a stock that has that dividend safety grade of B minus to an A plus, historically, back to 2010, you would have avoided a dividend cut 98% of the time.

所以我对这个数据点以及我们为此整理的指标感到非常自豪。

So I'm really proud of that data point and the metrics that we put together for that.

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

我喜欢听起源故事。

I love an origin story.

我认为它为我们一直在听并在很多情况下使用的策略提供了信息。

I think it informs the strategy that we've been listening to and using in many cases.

史蒂夫，对我们投资社区有什么最后的鼓励或想法吗？

Steve, any final words of encouragement or thoughtfulness for our investing community?

我想在此基础上补充一点，过去五年里，我们所有的量化强力买入……

I guess I would add on the back of that over the last five years, this is taking all our quant strong buys.

每天大概会有三百五到四百只量化强力买入的股票，我们每天都会对这些强力买入的股票进行组合调整。

On any given day, this could be like three fifty to 400 quant strong buys and we rebalance the portfolio of those strong buys every day.

你可以看到，在过去五年里，Seeking Alpha的量化强力买入股票上涨了166%，而华尔街上涨了约17%，标普500上涨了49%。

And you can see over the last five years that the Seeking Alpha quant strong buys are up a 166% compared to Wall Street up about 17% and the S and P 500 up 49%.

这是过去五年模拟交易的结果。

And that's the last five years of the simulated trades.

模拟交易大约从2019年开始。

The simulated trades started really around 2019.

我们的回测可以追溯到2010年，如果看从2010年到现在这段时间，量化强力买入的股票上涨了5000%，而华尔街强力买入的股票上涨了124%，标普500上涨了585%。

Our back test goes back to 2010 and if you took that number for that period from 2010 to date, the quant strong buys are 5,000 compared to Wall Street straw buys up 124%, and the S and P 500 up 585%.

所以这真的归结为我们使用的这套流程，当你看到像美光这样的股票，它有量化强力买入的评级，基于这五个核心投资特征。

So it really comes down to this process that we utilize when you look at stocks like Micron that have a quant strong buy that are based on these five core investment characteristics.

我们相信多元化，所以我们关注价值、成长、盈利能力和动量修正。

We believe in diversification, so that's why we're looking at value, growth, profitability and momentum revisions.

很多量化系统可能只看动量，很多只看成长，但我们真的很喜欢我们流程的多元化，而且历史记录表明效果相当不错。

Many quant systems might just look at momentum, many will just look at growth, but we really like the diversification of our process and the track record has shown that it's worked out quite well.

所以我绝对是非常支持的。

So I'm definitely a big proponent.

最后我想说，你可以打开美光科技，看看任何一份研究报告，也可以关注我。如果你对我们基于量化系统推出的产品感兴趣，比如Alpha Pix、Pro Quant投资组合，或者Quant Growth and Income，它们都是我们量化系统的衍生品，而且表现也都很强劲。

And my final words, please, you pull up Micron, take a look at any of the research reports, you could follow me, or if you're interested specifically in the products that we created on the back of our quant system such as Alpha Pix or the Pro Quant Portfolio or the Quant Growth and Income, they are all derivatives our quant system, and they all have very strong performance as well.

希望你喜欢我们这期在YouTube、TikTok和X上发布的节目。

Hope you enjoy this episode that we've been releasing on YouTube and on TikTok and X.

请关注我们的CressTopStocks账号。

Follow us on at CressTopStocks.

大家早上好。

Good morning, everyone.

今天是10月9日，星期五。

It is Friday, October 9.

我们请回了Steve Cress。

We are back with Steve Cress.

在因AI收入担忧引发科技股抛售之后，股指期货已经上涨。

Stock index futures have advanced after a tech sell off on AI revenue concerns.

另外，星链那边也有些消息，还有一些电信股下跌的消息。

We also had some news out of Starlink and some telecom stock sell off news as well.

史蒂夫，关于今天的市场，你有什么想和观众分享的？

Steve, what would you share with our audience about today's market?

我觉得今天开盘比昨天稍微积极一些。

Well, I'd say today's start is a little bit more positive than yesterday.

你还记得昨天开盘前，大家担心伊朗局势升级，油价大幅上涨。

If you recall yesterday going into the open, there were fears about increased escalations with Iran, and we had oil move up fairly significantly.

今天油价有所回落。

Today, a moderate pullback in oil.

你看，原油价格跌幅还不到1%。

You can see it's not even a 1% pullback when we look at crude oil here.

目前油价在90美元左右，但市场对此反应积极。

Currently priced at about 90, but the market is reacting positive to that.

所以纳斯达克指数上涨了将近0.75%。

So we find the Nasdaq is up almost three quarters of a percent.

标普500上涨了0.3%，道琼斯指数基本持平。

S and P five hundred up point 3%, and the Dow is fairly flat.

总的来说，我觉得昨天抛售的很多AI相关科技股，今天早上开盘前都在反弹。

For the most part, I think a lot of the technology stocks that sold off yesterday that are AI related are bouncing back this morning right before the open.

我觉得最有趣的新闻，显然是SpaceX收购Spectrum，以及现有电信服务提供商对此的反应。

I think the most interesting news, obviously, is what we're seeing out there with SpaceX acquiring Spectrum and the reaction from the current providers for telecom services.

这确实很有意思，也反映了世界正在变化的方式，但实际的影响或后果还不那么明朗。

It is something that is very interesting and I think indicative of the ways that the world is changing, but also it's not so clear the actual fallout or the actual consequences.

我觉得有一些有趣的要点值得强调，我相信史蒂夫马上也会提到，但我想先为那些可能不知道或没听今天《华尔街早餐》播客的人介绍一下这笔交易：SpaceX以80亿美元收购全国性的低频段频谱组合，引发了主要电信股的大幅抛售。

And I think that there are, interesting notes to highlight as I'm sure Steve will do in a second, but just wanted to highlight the actual deal for those that may not know or that may not have listened to today's Wall Street Breakfast podcast, SpaceX's $8,000,000,000 deal to buy a nationwide low band spectrum portfolio sparked a sudden sell off in major telecom stocks.

Grain Management在一份声明中表示，SpaceX将收购Grain全国频谱组合的100%。

Grain Management said in a statement that SpaceX will acquire 100% of Grain's nationwide spectrum portfolio.

因此，电信股在盘前交易中下跌……

And consequently, telecom shares dipped in pre mark...

盘前交易情况。

Premarket action.

T-Mobile、Verizon、AT&T都跌了大约6%。

T Mobile, Verizon, AT and T were all down roughly 6%.

Steve，关于这个故事你还有什么要补充的吗？

Steve, what else would you add to that story?

SpaceX在盘前交易中上涨了大约3%。

SpaceX is trading up in the pre market about 3%.

昨天跌了大约4%，所以这个消息让股价收复了相当一部分跌幅。

Yesterday was down about 4%, so recapturing a fair amount of that loss on the news.

如果看看T-Mobile，你会发现今天早上它真的遭受重创，盘前下跌了8.3%。

If we were to look at T Mobile, you could see this is really taking on the nose this morning and the pre market is down 8.3%.

所以这个公告确实让很多投资现有移动公司的投资者感到紧张。

So this announcement really has many investors on edge that are in the incumbent mobile companies.

威胁在于，Starlink提供的频谱易于接入，并且与许多手机兼容，人们可能会转而使用这项服务。

The threat being that Starlink can provide spectrum that's easily accessible and it is compatible with many phones, that people will switch to that service.

所以这大致是第一个普遍的担忧。

So that is sort of the overall first generic fear.

我不确定这种担忧是否真的有道理，所以我们可能会发现这里有买入机会。

I'm not sure that anxiety is actually justified, so we might find there could be buying opportunities here.

T-Mobile 盘前现在下跌了9%。

T Mobile pre market now down 9%.

我接下来看看 Verizon。

I'm gonna go over to Verizon.

Verizon 下跌了6.3%，目前评级是持有。

Verizon down 6.3%, currently a hold rating there.

AT&T 和 T-Mobile 都下跌了大约9%，所以 AT&T 和 T-Mobile 受这个消息影响很大。

AT and T, Tigersville T is down about 9% as well, so AT and T and T Mobile taking it very hard on this news.

所以我觉得有趣的是，当你想要评估这种情况，并且有恐惧或焦虑时，我认为最好的办法就是把那个恐惧或问题或焦虑直接输入到 Seeking Alpha 里，看看我们是怎么评论的。

So I think what's interesting is when you want to assess this situation and you have a fear or anxiety, I kind of think the best thing is just to put that fear or that question or anxiety right into Seeking Alpha and see how we comment on it.

所以如果你在 Seeking Alpha 的仪表盘上，你会看到有一个搜索引擎，你可以输入

So if you are in Seeking Alpha on the dashboard, you'll see that there's a search engine, you can put

一个问题进去。

a question into it.

所以我就是简单地把

So I simply put

这个问题输进去，SpaceX有没有计划造手机，能用星链和他们的新频谱来运行？

it in here, does SpaceX have plans to build mobile phones that can operate off of Starlink and their new spectrum?

这就是大家基本的担忧和焦虑，也是为什么这些老牌公司股价跌得这么厉害。

So that's the basic fear and anxiety that people have and why the incumbents are coming off so sharply.

而Seeking Alpha的回应是，简单来说，目前公开的资料里没有明确的造手机计划。

And Seeking Alpha's response is short answer is no handset building plan is defined in the available coverage.

SpaceX似乎是在推进一个星链移动网络，让现有的兼容智能手机能连上，而不是去造一个专门的星链手机。

SpaceX appears to be pursuing a Starlink mobile network that connects to existing compatible smartphones rather than manufacturing a dedicated Starphone link.

所以很多猜测其实都不对。

So a lot of the speculation is not even correct.

当然，通过买频谱，他们确实提供了一种方式让现有手机能连上，但只限于兼容的4G智能手机和普通SIM卡。

It does offer obviously by buying the spectrum a way to connect existing phones, but only through compatible four gs smartphones and regular SIM cards.

所以现在很多人其实已经用上5G了，而且都在展望5G之后的未来了。

So many individuals actually are onto five gs at this point and are looking towards the future beyond five g.

还有一个重要的方面值得关注，你可能会本能地说，好吧，这些信息出来之后，T-Mobile、Verizon和AT&T会怎么应对呢？

There's another important aspect to look at, and you might instinctively say, okay, with this information coming out, how will T Mobile and Verizon and AT

T会怎么竞争呢？

and T compete?

所以我就直接输入了

So I simply just put in the

这个问题，T-Mobile会怎么竞争？

question, how will T Mobile compete?

然后它说，从竞争的角度来看，T-Mobile对抗SpaceX和Starlink Global的防御策略是基于网络替代经济学。

And it says competitive bottom line, T Mobile's defense against SpaceX, Starlight Global is based on a network substitution economics.

T-Mobile认为，卫星直连手机主要是一种边缘服务，而它的地面5G网络在日常使用和室内覆盖方面仍然是更优的选择。

T Mobile argues that satellite to phone connectivity is primarily an edge service while its terrestrial five g network remains a superior option for routine mobile usage, indoor coverage.

这一点非常重要。

This is really important.

我不确定你有没有试过在室内用Starlink连接手机，那根本不行。

I'm not sure if you've tried to use a phone with Starlink before indoors, it doesn't work.

就算你在飞机上，在飞机里面也是不行的。

Even if you're on an airplane, inside the airplane it does not work.

所以这绝对是特斯拉要通过星链克服的一个大障碍，才能让室内也能用上服务。

So that is definitely a big barrier that Tesla would have to overcome with Starlink in order to get service indoors.

所以我觉得我们今天看的这些股票，它们是在本能反应，这种焦虑确实吓跑了很多投资者。

So I think the stocks that we're looking at today, they're having a knee jerk reaction, and that anxiety is definitely scaring off a lot of investors.

但再说一次，我们可能真的会发现这更像是一个买入机会，直到SpaceX真正把网络建起来。

But again, we might actually find this to be more of a buying opportunity until SpaceX can actually build out a network.

它可能只适合紧急情况下的手机使用，这当然很好，但它不会提供和5G手机一样的服务。

It might just be for emergency phone usage, which is great, but it is not gonna provide the same services as a five g phone.

我觉得这正是T-Mobile和Verizon的管理层现在在告诉大家的。

And I think that's what T Mobile and Verizon management are telling people right now.

希望这能解答一些关于担忧的问题，以及为什么这些股票今天跌这么多。

Hopefully that kind of answers questions on fears and why these stocks are coming down so much today.

非常关键的一点是，不要把你的投资甚至交易决策建立在头条新闻上，而是花点时间深入挖掘，因为快速的头条新闻并不总是像承诺的那样。

The very salient point to not base your investment or even your trading decisions on headlines, but take the time to dig a bit deeper because not all is as promised on quick sound bite headlines.

我，我……

I I...

你知道，这个消息确实出来了，但很多活跃的投资者和华尔街分析师对这条路线其实挺熟悉的。

You know, certainly, this news is coming out, but, you know, many, engaged investors, many Wall Street analysts are, you know, fairly familiar with this route.

我觉得这挺有意思的。

I think it's interesting.

我们看看T-Mobile，目前它的量化评级是买入。

We take a look at T Mobile, which currently has a quant buy.

如果看分析师修正的评分，会发现它已经从六个月前的D+提升到了A-。

If we look at the analyst revisions grade, we could see it's improved to A minus from just six months ago where it was a D plus.

所以当我点击修正时，可以看到在过去90天里，有18位分析师上调了他们的预测，而有3位下调了。

So when I click on revisions, I can see that in the last ninety days, 18 adults have actually revised their estimates up and three have revised it down.

所以对于本财年，分析师们相当乐观，他们认为之前的预测太低了。

So for the fiscal year, adults are pretty positive and they believe their estimates have been too low.

对于即将到来的季度，我觉得情况就有点复杂了。

Upcoming quarter, I think is a little bit more mixed.

在10月22日的报告期内，有七个上调，九个下调。

There were seven up, nine down for the October 22 reporting period.

所以情况有点复杂，也许这就是股价一直有点疲软的原因。

So that's a little bit more mixed and perhaps why the stock has been a bit weak.

但就全年而言，我们的看法其实相当乐观。

But for the full year, our notes are actually fairly positive.

今天股价下跌了大约10%。

Stock coming off about 10% today.

这是一个量化买入评级，所以这可以被视为一个折扣机会。

It is a quant buy, so this could be viewed as a discount.

我们的第二条新闻是，Meta Platforms已禁止TikTok母公司字节跳动在其美国及其他六个国家的平台上投放广告。

So our second piece of news is that Meta Platforms has banned advertisements from TikTok parent company ByteDance across its platforms in The US and six other countries.

这是公司发言人周四向路透社透露的。

So said a company spokesperson to Reuters on Thursday.

你对Meta有什么看法？

What do you gotta say about Meta?

我觉得他们是在说，我们不会让广告商……

I think they're saying we're not gonna let advertisers...

竞争对手在我们的平台上打广告，这我当然能理解。

Competitors advertise on our platform, which I can certainly understand.

作为这么大一家公司的CEO，我也会很不愿意让竞争对手在我们的平台上打广告。

And I will be very reluctant as a CEO of a company of that size to just let our competitors advertise on the platform.

他们确实想要广告，但不是来自竞争对手的，尤其是那些产品更快、更好、更便宜的竞争对手。

They they definitely want advertising, but not from the competitors, especially the competitors have a faster, better, cheaper product.

所以这个决定我完全能理解。

So I can certainly understand the decision.

我觉得投资者可能会同意这个做法。

I think investors may agree with it.

虽然市场小幅上涨，涨了大约0.3%，但今天市场整体并不是上涨的。

Although the market is up marginally, it's up about point 3%, and this isn't a market that is up today.

现在涨了半个百分点。

Now half a percent.

我们来看看标普指数现在交易在什么位置。

Let's see where the S and P is trading.

开盘时它正好与标普500持平，上涨约0.4%。

It is trading exactly in line with the S and P 500 on the open, up about 0.4%.

所以Meta的交易情况与大盘一致，我觉得投资者并没有对这条消息做出明显反应。

So Meta Trading in line, I don't think investors are reacting to the news one way or the other.

另外，还有关于苹果的报道。

Also, report on Apple.

今天有报道说，苹果已经通知一些供应商削减其新推出的iPhone 18 Pro和iPhone 18 Pro Max的零部件产量。

It was reported today that Apple has told some of its suppliers to cut production of components for its newly launched iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max.

苹果，又一个科技巨头。

Apple, another tech behemoth.

是的。

Yes.

而且我觉得，如果这条消息有影响的话，那影响是负面的。

And I'd say if this news is having an impact, it's a negative impact.

开盘时股价目前下跌了大约百分之二点五。

The stock is currently down about two and a half percent on the open.

我们对苹果持有量化持有评级。

We have a quant hold on Apple.

今年迄今为止，该股表现相当不错。

The shares have traded fairly well year to date.

你会看到它上涨了22%，所以它跑赢了标普500指数。

You'd see it's up 22%, so it has beat the S and P 500.

不过，我要说的是，我们给出量化持有评级的原因是，我们认为该股估值过高，增长有限。

However, I will say the reason for that quant hold is we view the stock as very expensive with limited growth.

所以如果我们点击估值等级，是的，对于市盈率（按GAAP计算）来说，有很多红色标记，它的市盈率是38倍，而行业平均是22倍。

So if we click in the valuation grade, yeah, a fair amount of red for this for PE on a gap basis, It's trading at 38 times versus the sector at 22 times.

所以市盈率比行业高出68%。

So the PE is at a 68% premium to the sector.

这表明，投资者需要支付相当高的估值。

So that indicates that's a pretty rich valuation for people to pay.

重要的是，我们看一下PEG，PEG是1.2，而行业是0.65。

Importantly, if we take a look at the peg, PEG is 1.2 versus the sector at 0.65.

PEG是把市盈率和增长结合起来看的指标，在这个估值指标上，它比市场溢价83%，仍然非常昂贵。

PEG is when you actually combine PE and growth together, and on this valuation metric, it is an 83% premium to the market, which is still extraordinarily expensive.

所以这就是为什么整体评级是F，它就是个非常贵的股票。

So hence that overall f grade, it's just a very expensive stock.

但让我看看，增长是否值得这个价格。

But let me see, you know, if the growth makes it worth it.

我点开增长指标。

I'm clicking on growth.

我看到未来收入增长是10%，而行业是12%。

I'm looking at forward revenue growth that's 10% versus a sector of 12%.

所以实际上它的增长...

So it's actually grow...

增长比行业慢很多，营收比行业低15%。

Growing, you know, lot slower than the sector, like 15% lower than the sector, its top line.

如果看每股收益的底线，它得了C级，所以说明没什么特别的。

If I look at the bottom line for EPS, it has a c grade, so that says it's nothing special.

而且，根据华尔街的共识，增长率是16.37%，而行业平均水平是18.91%。

And certainly, the growth rate is 16.37% by using Wall Street consensus compared to the sector at 18.91%.

所以底线增长比行业低了大约13%。

So growth on the bottom line is about 13% lower than the sector.

所以我觉得这看起来相当不利，也许可以看看专家们怎么说。

So I'd say this looks pretty unfavorable, just to perhaps take a look at what the adults are saying.

专家们稍微乐观一些，但也不是所有人都这样。

Adults are a little bit more positive, and not all of them, though.

有24位分析师上调了盈利预期。

We've had 24 analysts take their earnings estimates up.

听起来挺多，但也有10位下调了盈利预期。

That sounds like a lot, but we've also had 10 revise their earnings estimate down.

更重要的是，对于即将到来的季度，11月2日，只有7位分析师上调了盈利预期，而有高达14位分析师下调了该季度的预期。

More importantly, for the upcoming quarter, November 2, only seven analysts have revised their earnings estimates up, and a whopping 14 analysts have revised their estimates down for the quarter.

所以这意味着有14位分析师认为他们的预估过高，因此下调了预估。

So that means that there are 14 analysts that believe their estimates were too high, so they lowered it.

我觉得这只股票确实应该维持持有评级，而且今天消息出来后股价下跌了2.4%。

I'd say the stock certainly deserves its hold recommendation here, and it's down 2.4% on top of the news today.

过去五天，股价下跌了大约1%，但今天显然跌幅相当大。

Last five days, it's down about a percent, but you could see today, obviously, it looks like it's dropping quite significantly.

所以我会建议持有这些股票。

So I would say hold the shares.

我不会建议现在增持苹果。

I would not be in an accumulation phase for Apple.

这个持有评级并不是特别积极。

Not an especially positive hold.

我今天早上还看到一条新闻，说苹果预计将在本月晚些时候推出触屏MacBook和更新的iPad mini。

I also saw a news story this morning that reportedly Apple is set to unveil a touchscreen MacBook and an updated iPad mini later this month.

这是苹果首款触屏MacBook，苹果粉丝都知道这并非最初的计划，但现在确实如此。

It's its first ever touchscreen MacBook, and Apple fans know that that wasn't always the plan, but it is now.