SpaceX、特斯拉与人工智能贸易的新阶段

大家好。

Hi, everybody.

想跟大家说一下今天的节目，可能有些人还不知道，今天的内容有点不一样。

Wanted to let you know about today's episode, something a little bit different for those of you that may not know.

我一直在YouTube上和Steve Kress一起做早间节目，他是Seeking Alpha的量化研究主管，多次做客投资专家节目，也多次分享过他的选股和选股背后的逻辑。

I have been doing morning episodes on YouTube with Steve Kress, our head of quant at Seeking Alpha, who has been on investing experts many times, who has shared his stock picks and rationale behind those picks many times.

我们一直在YouTube上做早间节目。

And we have been doing morning shows on YouTube.

节目叫Kress Top Stocks。

It's at Kress Top Stocks.

我们一直在回顾当天早间的市场动态，看看市场发生了什么，哪些股票在影响市场。

We've been going over that morning's market movers, what's happening in the market, the stocks that are moving the markets.

我们是从量化分析的角度来看这些的。

We're taking a look at them from a quant perspective.

Steve这周休假，所以我就和Chris Ciaccia一起做节目，他是Seeking Alpha新闻团队的技术编辑。

Steve is off this week, so I have been doing the shows with Chris Ciaccia, who is our tech editor on Seeking Alpha's news team.

我想分享一下今天的节目。

And I wanted to share today's episode.

我觉得这期节目虽然简短，但非常有价值。

I thought it extremely valuable even though brief.

今天早上关于SpaceX的盈利有很多讨论。

Much ado this morning about SpaceX earnings.

他们会和特斯拉合并吗？

Will they merge with Tesla?

埃隆·马斯克会统治世界吗？

Will Elon Musk take over the world?

不会。

No.

我们不谈这个，但我们确实讨论了星链限制对乌克兰和俄罗斯的影响。

We don't talk about that, but we do talk about the implications of Starlink restrictions vis a vis Ukraine and Russia.

我们聊了微软，一些新的Xbox消息，微软的财报也将在下周公布。

We talk Microsoft, some new Xbox news, Microsoft earnings also coming up next week.

我们会聊到这些。

We get into that.

人工智能的未来，科技的未来，都在十分钟之内讲完。

The future of AI, the future of tech, all in under ten minutes.

总之，希望你喜欢这期节目，也欢迎去YouTube看看我们。

Anyways, hope you enjoy this episode, and check us out on YouTube.

我们和Chris、特别是和Steve一起做的那些视频，真的越来越受欢迎了。

The videos that we've been doing with Chris, with Steve especially, have been really making their move.

我们也在TikTok上。

We're also on TikTok.

我们也在X，也就是推特上。

We are also on x slash Twitter.

很想知道你们的看法。

Would love to hear from you what you think.

在评论区告诉我们吧。

Let us know in the comments.

与此同时，请享受这一集。

In the meantime, enjoy the episode.

大家早上好。

Good morning, everybody.

今天是10月21日，星期三。

It is Wednesday, October 21.

这周我再次和我们的科技编辑Chris Ciaccia一起，他是我们新闻团队中的一员。

I am here once again for this week with Chris Ciaccia, our tech editor on our vaunted news team.

Chris，你怎么看？

Chris, what would you say?

美国股市在SpaceX因盈利超预期而上涨后走高。

US stocks have risen after SpaceX jumped on an earnings beat.

SpaceX的盈利，这可是新鲜事。

SpaceX earnings, that's a new thing.

关于今早的市场，你有什么想分享的？

What would you share about this morning's market?

所以我觉得SpaceX，就像你提到的，是这里的主要推动力。

So I think SpaceX, like you've mentioned, is the is the big driver here.

埃隆·马斯克昨晚透露了一点消息，或者可能不止一点，可能是个重磅炸弹，他说特斯拉和SpaceX的董事会已经成立了委员会，来研究合并是否可行，以及是否是个好主意。

Elon Musk kind of dropped a hint or maybe a little bit more than a hint, maybe a little bit of a bomb last night when he said that the boards of Tesla and SpaceX have formed committees to see whether a merger is feasible and whether it'd be a good idea.

他公开表示他认为这是个好主意。

He's come out and said that he thinks it's a good idea.

大多数投资者都预料到这事迟早会发生，但时间点才是新的变化。

Most investors kind of anticipated that this was gonna happen at some point, but the timing is what's new here.

如果SpaceX和特斯拉真的合并，那只会让他们在人工智能领域成为更强大的竞争对手，对抗微软、谷歌、亚马逊这些公司。

And if SpaceX and Tesla do merge, it just makes them an even more formidable competitor in AI against companies like Microsoft and Google and Amazon and those guys.

所以现在真正推动市场的就是这种情绪。

So that's really kind of what's driving the market right now is that sentiment.

然后我们还有一些来自Star...的超出预期的结果。

And then we had some better than expected results from Star...

或者说是来自SpaceX的，我觉得投资者对此感到惊喜。

Or from SpaceX, which I think were investors pleasantly surprised with.

所以这基本上就是目前情绪的真正驱动力。

So that's kinda really what's driving the the sentiment right now.

如果SpaceX真的和特斯拉合并，你觉得科技领域还会有哪些影响？

What else would you share about what would happen in the tech landscape if SpaceX did merge with Tesla?

嗯，正如我所说，这让他们在获取芯片方面更有竞争力。

Well, like I said, I think it makes them a more formidable competitor to, you know, get access to chips.

马斯克已经公开表示，他们和英伟达关系很好。

Elon Musk has come out and said that they have a great relationship with NVIDIA.

而且我觉得，一旦这家公司可能价值约3.5万亿美元，那在规模和量级上就和微软、谷歌、Meta还有亚马逊平起平坐了。

And I think when you get the fact that now that that company could potentially be worth $3,500,000,000,000 or so, that puts them in the landscape with Microsoft and Google and Meta and Amazon in terms of size and scale.

这样他们在获取英伟达芯片时就能坐在桌前，而不是像二流玩家那样。

So it puts them at the front of the table when they need to get access to NVIDIA's chips as opposed to being, like, a second rung player there.

另外，我们还有关于马斯克和星链的新闻，他下令限制SpaceX的星链服务，这影响了乌克兰的军事行动。

We also had news from Elon Musk vis a vis Starlink that he had ordered restrictions on SpaceX's Starlink that disrupted Ukrainian military operations.

对这条新闻你怎么看？

Thoughts about that piece of news?

我觉得这件事大家一直争论不休。

I think there's been a lot of back and forth on this.

前几天有记者问特朗普总统，是不是他干的。

Reporters asked president Trump the other day whether he was responsible for it.

他站出来说不是。

He came out and said no.

马斯克说自己没做，如果说卫星有任何性能下降，那也是特朗普政府造成的。

Elon Musk said he didn't do it and if there was any kind of degradation to the satellites that it would come from the Trump administration.

所以现在就是乌克兰总统泽连斯基、特朗普和马斯克各说各的，谁也说不清楚。

So it's kind of a he said, she said kinda thing here with Ukraine president Zelensky, Trump, and Musk.

目前这件事我们确实没有明确答案，但大家知道的是，乌克兰对抗俄罗斯的军事行动非常依赖星链卫星。

So we don't really have a clear answer on this right now, but all we know is that Ukraine's operations, the war against Russia, are heavily reliant on Starlink satellites.

所以他们的处境很不利，他们需要尽快以某种方式解决这个问题。

So they're at a disadvantage here, and they need to get the situation resolved one way or another.

我们今天的第三条新闻跟微软有关。据《财富》杂志报道，微软计划在2027年假日季和2028年假日季推出一款下一代Xbox掌上设备。

Our third piece of news today relates to Microsoft, which is reportedly planning to launch a next gen Xbox handheld device for the 2027 holiday season and for the 2028 holiday season according to Fortune.

对那些幸运的人来说，价格会在12到1800美元之间，除非有补贴出现。

And for those lucky few, it will cost between 12 and $1,800 unless some subsidies arise.

对这条新闻有什么看法？

Thoughts about this piece of news?

嗯，一般来说，当公司……

Well, generally, happens is when you...

当公司推出新产品时，他们往往会亏本销售，所以至少初期会有补贴，因为开发成本太高了。

When companies come out with councils, they tend to sell them at a loss, so they do subsidize them, at least initially, because they are so expensive to create.

微软和索尼之前都这么干过。

We've seen that with Microsoft and Sony.

任天堂没怎么这么做，尤其是现在Switch 2定价大概500美元。

Nintendo hasn't really done that a lot, especially now with the Switch two, which is priced at about $500.

他们每卖出一台Switch 2主机都能赚钱。

They're still making a profit on every Switch two console that they sell.

不过过去微软和索尼都是先亏本卖，等供应链成本降下来再调整。

But in the past, Microsoft and Sony have done that while they work down to bring down costs in the supply chain.

但12到1800美元的价格还是很高，这是一款昂贵的游戏机。

But 12 to $1,800 is still up, a a expensive console.

这比一些电脑、一些笔记本电脑还要贵。

That's more expensive than some computers, some laptops.

所以，如果微软继续努力降低成本，或者把机器做得稍微不那么强大，我也不会感到惊讶，因为即使对微软这样财力雄厚的公司来说，这也是一笔不小的开销。

So I would not be surprised to see if Microsoft works to continue to get the costs down or makes it a little bit less of a powerful machine or machines because that's a big pill to swallow even for a company with Microsoft's balance sheet.

有什么值得注意的吗？

Anything to note?

他们下周发布财报。

Their earnings come out next week.

在财报发布前，有什么值得关注的吗？

Anything to note ahead of earnings there?

在游戏领域，我认为投资者想看看动视和Xbox是否会出现转机。

In the gaming space, I think investors wanna see if there's any kind of turnaround with Activision and with with Xbox.

过去几个季度，这拖累了微软的业绩。

That's been kind of a drag for Microsoft over the past few quarters.

还有一件事投资者特别关注，那就是他们的 Azure 云业务。

And then the big thing that investors really pay attention to is their Azure cloud unit.

考虑到目前的股价，如果增长率低于 45% 左右，很可能会对股价造成压力。

Anything less than mid forties growth, given where the stock is right now, is probably gonna hit the stock.

如果微软能展示出 Azure 45% 左右的增长率，那我认为股价还会继续上涨。

And if Microsoft is able to show mid forties growth for Azure, then I think you see the shares continue to rise.

另外我还想提一个点，那就是 Microsoft 365 和 Copilot。

And the other issue that I would call out too is Microsoft three sixty five and Copilot.

我们需要看到这些业务在变现方面有所提升。

We need to see some sort of increase in monetization there.

微软已经开始有点扭转局面了，但还远远比不上谷歌的 Gemini、ChatGPT 或者 Anthropic 的 Claude 这些竞争对手。

Microsoft started to turn that ship around a little bit, but not nearly to the point where competitors like Google with Gemini or ChatGPT or Antthropic with Claude are doing.

所以我们还需要看到一些进展。

So we need to see some of that.

否则，财报发布后可能会出现抛售。

Otherwise, you could see some sell off after the print.

还有什么最后的想法或者想说的吗？

Any final thoughts or points to make?

其实就是我们刚才聊的那些。

Just kind of what we talked about before.

SpaceX让AI交易又有点回暖了，接下来几天会有特斯拉、Meta、西部数据和希捷的财报。

With SpaceX kind of bringing back a little bit of euphoria to the AI trade, we've got some earnings over the next couple days with Tesla, Meta, Western Digital, Seagate.

我们需要看到这些公司继续保持强劲表现，否则又回到原点。

We need to see continued strength there or we're back to square one with that.

不管什么原因，收益率开始有点下降了。

We're starting to see yields come down a little bit for whatever reason.

可能是交易被拉长了，但收益率确实是下降了。

Maybe the trade got extended, but yields have come down.

油价现在又回到接近100美元了。

Oil's back now near a $100.

所以这就是多空之间的拉锯。

So that's kind of the push and pull there.

但就AI交易而言，Meta、特斯拉以及其他本周公布财报的大公司的这些业绩，对投资者来说至关重要，能重新点燃他们对今年剩余时间的希望和乐观情绪。

But in terms of the AI trade, these results from Meta, Tesla, Tesla, and the other big companies that report this week are paramount for investors to kind of bring back that hope and optimism going into the rest of the year.

谢谢你，Chris。

Thank you, Chris.

我们明天再聊。

We'll talk to

明天见。

you tomorrow.

非常感谢。

Appreciate it.

谢谢，Rena。

Thanks, Rena.

提醒一下，你在本播客中听到的任何内容都不应被视为投资建议。

Just a reminder, anything you hear on this podcast should not be considered investment advice.

这仅供娱乐参考，投资前应咨询持牌专业人士的意见。

This is for entertainment purposes only, and you should seek advice from a licensed professional before investing.

如果你喜欢这期节目，请在您最喜欢的播客应用上留下评分或评论，我们很快会带着新一期节目与您见面。

If you enjoyed the episode, leave a rating or review on your favorite podcasting app, and we'll see you soon with a new episode.