Steven Cress picks Lockheed Martin + Sandisk for balance and diversification, growth and income

你认识他。

You know him.

你爱他。

You love him.

你尊重他的选择。

You respect his picks.

他就是史蒂夫·克雷斯。

It's Steve Cress.

欢迎回到《投资专家》节目。

Welcome back to Investing Experts.

能和你聊聊总是很开心。

Always great to talk to you.

能来这里总是很开心。

Always great to be here.

能来这里总是很开心。

It is always great to be here.

而且很高兴能和你聊聊，因为我觉得投资者们确实需要一些清晰的指引，来应对当前这个市场。

And it's nice to talk to you because I feel like investors need some clarity once again in terms of how to navigate this market.

我们开录之前就在聊，现在市场一会儿是风险偏好，一会儿是风险规避，变化非常快。

We were discussing before we hit record, it's a risk on market, it's a risk off market, it is constantly changing.

市场上涨，创下历史新高，然后又下跌。

The market is up, it's hitting record highs, it's down.

为什么跌？

Why is it down?

为什么涨？

Why is it up?

为什么没有跟着这条头条新闻走？

Why isn't it piggybacking off of this headline?

为什么又跟着这条头条新闻走了？

Why is it piggybacking off of this headline?

那你会怎么给大家理清思路？

So how would you clarify?

你会怎么鼓励投资者在现在这个市场环境下考虑投资呢？

How would you encourage investors to think about investing, at this market right now?

平衡和分散投资。

Balance and diversification.

持续投资。

Keep investing.

你永远不知道市场会涨还是会跌。

You never know when the market's gonna be up or down.

而且今年确实是非常奇怪的一年。

And it's definitely been a very strange year.

你知道，现在已经是八月了，标普500指数触及历史新高，但某种程度上你几乎感觉不到，尤其是如果你重仓科技股的话。

You know, here we are in August, and the market, the S and P 500, is touching all time highs, but in a way you almost would not know, especially if you are overweight technology.

正如你提到的，今年有很多风险偏好和风险规避的时期，真的很难判断该往哪里走。

There have been so many episodes of risk con, risk cop as you've mentioned this year, it's kinda hard to tell where to be.

所以在今年某个时候，科技板块跑赢了所有其他板块。

So at one point in the year, technology was outperforming all sectors.

而在今年另一个时间点，能源板块表现最好。

At another point in the year, energy was outperforming all sectors.

你知道，在今年的另一个时间点，你会看到医疗保健、必需消费品和公用事业类股票集中上涨，然后又回到AI股票。

You know, at another point in the year, you could see there was a clustering of, like, healthcare and consumer staples and utilities, and then it goes back to AI stocks.

从六月初开始，AI交易和风险偏好基本退潮，我们看到一些股票开始反弹，资金轮动到了避险板块。

The AI trade and risk went off the table pretty much starting in the beginning of June, and we've seen some of those stocks start to rally back, and the rotation went into, like, the safe haven sectors.

这确实是今年第二次或第三次出现这种轮动，但标普500指数继续创出新高。

This is really, you know, the second or third time this year we've seen this kind of rotation occur, but the S and P continues to move forward to new highs.

所以在这样的市场里，你需要广泛布局。

So in this kind of market, you want broad exposure.

你需要分散投资。

You want diversification.

而且考虑到地缘政治风险，还有中期选举临近带来的季节性风险。

And being that there are geopolitical risks, there's seasonality risk with midterm elections coming up.

当然还有通胀风险。

There's obviously inflation risk.

同比数据仍然相当高。

Year over year numbers were still quite high.

尽管核心数据看起来更好，但你不能忽视这一点。

Even though the core numbers look better, you can't ignore it.

你知道，能源价格远高于以往，所以这影响了CPI，而且地缘政治事件会带来什么影响，谁也说不准。

You know, energy prices are far higher than they have been, so that's impacting CPI, and there's no telling with the geopolitical events which way that's gonna lead.

所以我们会提高利率。

So we'll bring interest rates up.

利率会保持不变。

We'll interest rates stay unchanged.

那里有很多不确定性。

There's a lot of uncertainty there.

所以我的建议是继续投资，但要追求多元化，我们特别喜欢所谓的杠铃策略，就是把收益型股票和机会主义结合起来，买入那些基本面良好但价格已经回落的优质股票，过去一个半月我们确实看到了这种情况。

So my guidance is keep investing, but go for diversification, and we particularly like what I call barbell approach is where we combine income oriented stocks with being opportunistic and buying, you know, great stocks with good fundamentals that have come off at a price, and we have definitely witnessed that over the last month and a half.

基本上是一种对冲两面风险的方式。

Basically a way to hedge both sides of the coin.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

我以前管理过一只对冲基金，如果让我重来一次，我会采用这种方法。

I used to run a hedge fund that I think if I had to redo it, I would use this approach.

从技术上讲，对冲需要做空股票，但我其实挺喜欢持有那些基本面强劲的成长型股票作为对冲，而通常产生收入的股票并不是那种高风险类型的。

Technically, you're hedging, you need to be shorting stocks, but I actually kind of like the approach of being in, you know, growth oriented stocks that have strong fundamentals, but as my hedge, and typically the stocks that produce the income aren't those risk odd type of stocks.

它们不像IT股、非必需消费品股，或者一些高价的工业股。

They're not like the IT stocks or the consumer discretionary stocks or some of the high bid industrial names.

你通常会看到金融、医疗、公用事业和REITs这些产生收入的股票，它们和成长型股票形成了很好的互补。而且你应该坚持每月投资，但在像现在这样充满不确定性的市场里，我认为分散投资是关键。

You tend to find financials, healthcare stocks, utility stocks, REITs as the income generators, and it's a really nice offset to the growth perspective, and you want to continue to, you know, invest on a monthly basis, but when you hit markets like this, which still have so much uncertainty, that diversification I believe is key.

那你具体怎么操作呢？

So how do you approach it?

你用什么来追求增长？

What do you use for growth?

那你会用什么来获取收益呢？

What would you use for income?

你会关注某些特定的股票吗？

Are you looking at specific stocks?

你会关注某些特定的行业吗？

Are you looking at specific sectors?

我知道你上周写了一篇文章，也讨论了这个问题。

I know you had a article this past week that discussed this also.

你是怎么说的？

How do you discuss that?

你如何鼓励投资者去思考这种杠铃策略呢？

How do you encourage investors to think about this barbell approach?

对。

Yeah.

那篇文章，你可以点进去看看。

The article, feel free to click on it.

这篇文章叫《驾驭市场波动：平衡稳定与增长的六只顶级股票》。

It's called Navigating Market Turbulence, Six Top Stocks for Balancing Stability and Growth.

它是8月13号发布的，如果你点进去看的话，也请关注我，这样你还能看到我其他的文章。不过这篇文章确实反映了我们现在所处的市场环境。

It came out on August 13, and if you click on it, you know, please follow me so you can see some of my other articles as well, but it really speaks to the environment that we're in.

其实有很多方法可以筛选出这些股票。

There's any number of ways that you can identify these stocks.

你不一定非得听我的推荐。

You don't have to go on my recommendations.

Seeking Alpha有一个筛选工具，你可以用它来找出成长股或者分红股。

Seeking Alpha has a screening tool where you could identify growth stocks or you can identify dividend stocks.

所以这个工具是有的，不过具体来说，我确实喜欢的一只股票是洛克希德·马丁，它是一只带来收入的股票。

So it's available, but in particular, one stock that I do like is Lockheed Martin, which is an income generating stock.

它目前的收益率是2.3%，明显高于标普500，而且即使是2.3%，也比很多以收益为导向的ETF要高。

The yield on it currently, it's 2.3%, so it's significantly higher than the S and P 500, and even at 2.3%, it would be higher than many income oriented ETFs.

举个例子，先锋高收益指数ETF的收益率只有大约2%。

By example, the Vanguard high yield index ETF has a yield that's only about 2%.

所以洛克希德·马丁的远期收益率是2.3%，高于那个水平，但它是一家航空航天和国防领域的工业企业。

So Lockheed Martin coming in at 2.3% for its forward yield is above that, but it's an industrial company in the aerospace and defense.

它是该领域最大的公司，而且不幸的是，全球冲突不断，比如乌克兰和俄罗斯、中东、美国和伊朗之间的战争。

It's the largest out there, And being that, unfortunately, we've had so many wars throughout the world between Ukraine and Russia, The Middle East, The US and Iran.

全球各地的武器储备都相当低。

A lot of stockpiles worldwide are quite low.

这让洛克希德·马丁处于一个非常有利的位置。

So it puts Lockheed Martin in a very good position.

它的估值与工业板块一致，目前增长也与工业板块同步，但很多分析师正在上调对洛克希德·马丁的预期。

Their valuation is in line with the industrial sector, and right now the growth is in line with the industrial sector, but we have a lot of analysts revising their numbers up for Lockheed Martin.

所以我认为这会让它继续保持良好态势。

So I think that continues to put it in a good place.

是的，通常就是2.3%左右。

So, yes, that's usually about 2.3%.

所以这就是我的看法，而且每当我有一个收益导向的投资想法时，它通常也是一个强力买入的标的。

So that would be my and whenever I do have an income oriented idea, it typically is a strong buyer buy as well.

所以我看那个方向性评级，跟看股息收益率是不一样的。

So I look at that directional rating different than I do the dividend yield.

对于股息收益率，我们主要关心的是公司会不会维持那个股息。

For a dividend yield, our primary concern is that the companies will maintain that dividend.

所以我们用另一套因素，我称之为股息等级，包括股息安全等级和股息增长等级。

So we have another set of factors that we use, which I called dividend grades, and we have a dividend safety grade and a dividend growth grade.

所以当我要买股息股票时，我会确保那些股息等级至少是C+到B-的范围，这样我就比较有信心你的股息是安全的。

So when I do look to buy dividend stocks, I make sure in terms of those dividend grades that they're at minimum in the c plus, b minus range, and I feel fairly confident that your dividend should be safe with those.

然后我们有方向性推荐，就是强力买入、买入或持有，这意味着那只股票也应该有资本增值的潜力。

Then we have our directional recommendation, which is a strong buy, buy or hold, which means that stock should offer capital appreciation as well.

所以我们是在同时寻找资本增值和收入，洛克希德·马丁正好符合这个。

So we're kind of combining looking for capital appreciation and income at the same time, and Lockheed Martin fits right in that.

如果看增长方面，我现在很喜欢的一只股票是闪迪。

If I were to look on the growth side, one of the stocks that I like a lot now is Sandisk.

这是在IT行业，具体来说是技术硬件和存储领域。

This is in the IT sector, specifically in the technology hardware and storage sector.

闪迪这个名字其实非常有名，比如U盘。

Sandisk is a name that's actually really well known, like thumb drives.

那些红色的小U盘已经存在几十年了，上面写着闪迪。

These little red thumb drives have been around for decades that say Sandisk on it.

基本上大家都把它当作U盘公司，但就像我常说的，它已经不再是你父亲那个年代的闪迪U盘了。

That pretty much is known as the memory stick company, but as I often say, it's no longer your father's Sandisk memory stick.

他们深度参与数据中心和数据中心内存的业务，这对他们公司的增长意义重大。

They are heavily involved in data centers and memory for data centers, and this has meant a lot for their company in terms of growth.

在IT行业里，它是少数几个价格非常便宜的公司之一。

It's one of the few companies that in the IT sector is incredibly cheap.

所以在估值方面，我们给它A+评级，这个A+评级立刻表明它比行业其他公司便宜得多。

So in terms of valuation, we have an A plus grade on it, and that A plus grade gives you an instant characterization saying this is far cheaper than the rest of the sector.

我们使用的因子评级总是相对于行业而言的。

The factor grades that we use are always relative to the sector.

所以无论你看价值、增长还是盈利能力，看到一个A级或F级，就能立刻了解它在行业中的位置。

So whether you're looking at the value, growth, or profitability, and you see an a grade or an f grade, gives you that instant characterization of where it is versus a sector.

当你点击Sandisk的估值时，它的市盈率是……

And when you click on valuation for Sandisk, it's got a PE.

简直难以置信。

Like, this is incredible.

它的远期市盈率只有6.96倍，而行业平均水平是30倍。

Its Ford PE is only 6.96 times versus the sector at 30 times.

所以它比整个行业便宜得多。

So it's incredibly cheap versus the sector.

但如果你看公司的远期增长率，也就是现在的每股收益增长率，远期增长是345%。

But if you look at the company's forward growth rate, the EPS growth rate right now, forward growth, is 345%.

所以增长非常强劲。

So it is tremendous growth.

而且价格极其便宜。

It is incredibly cheap.

所以这是我们强烈推荐的顶级买入之一，我们把它放在我们的Alpha Picks投资组合里，也放在我们的PQP投资组合里，这两个组合都专注于增长。

So it's one of our our top strong buy recommendations, and we have this in our Alpha Picks portfolio as well as in our PQP portfolio, which are focused on growth.

我还想提一下，洛克希德·马丁在我们的量化增长与收益投资组合里，这个产品每两周重新平衡一次，可能一个月交易两到三次，但量化增长与收益投资组合里的所有股票都会分红。

And I should mention Lockheed Martin is in our Quant Growth and Income Portfolio, which is a product rebalances once every two weeks, maybe two to three trades a month, but all the stocks in the Quant Growth and Income Portfolio, they pay dividends.

而Alpha Picks和PQP就不要求这一点。

Where with Alpha Picks and PQP, that's not a criteria.

所以，对于个股或投资组合服务来说，有一个平衡的方法是很不错的。

So it's nice to have a balanced approach for the individual stocks or for portfolio services.

如果你两个都想要，你可以同时拥有量化增长与收益和像Alpha Picks这样的产品，这样你就能在资本增值和收益生成之间取得很好的平衡。

If you wanna have both, you can have the Quant Growth and Income and a product like Alpha Picks, so you get that nice balance of focusing on capital appreciation as well as income generation.

关于洛克希德·马丁我有几个问题，但既然你提到量化增长与收益投资组合，我们一两个月前有一集节目，你介绍了那个投资组合。

I have a couple questions about Lockheed Martin, but I also as long as you're talking about the Quant Growth and Income Portfolio, which we had an episode a month ago, a couple months ago with you introducing that portfolio.

为了向我们的听众更新那个投资组合的情况，史蒂夫，就像你的其他投资组合一样，它表现非常出色。

And just to kind of update our audience on that portfolio much like your other portfolios Steve, it's doing gangbusters.

所以我很希望你能和我们听众分享一下那个投资组合的最新情况。

So I would love it if you could share an update with our audience about that.

好的。

Yeah.

当然可以。

Absolutely.

实际上，从六月初开始，这个组合一直是表现最好的。

This has actually been since the beginning of June, it's been the best performing portfolio.

我们在6月3日推出，从那天起，它上涨了12.74%。

We launched it on June 3, and since June 3, it is up 12.74.

而基准，也就是先锋高收益指数ETF，只涨了4.4%。

And the benchmark, which is that Vanguard high yield index ETF, is up only 4.4%.

但你知道，即便如此，它也跑赢了很多不同的板块。

But, you know, at that, it's beating so many different sectors.

所以时机和位置都恰到好处。

So right place at the right time.

尽管标普500接近历史高点，这个组合里的股票在风险偏好切换和不确定性时期里获得了丰厚的回报。

Even though the S and P 500 is near an all time high, the stocks within this portfolio have heavily been rewarded during this risk on, risk off phase and a period of uncertainty.

所以里面有不少金融股、REITs，还有一些工业股和医疗股。

So it has a fair amount of financial stocks in there, REITs, some industrials, some health cares.

所以它真的是赶上了好时机，而且好消息是，对于这个投资组合，你绝不会想到一个专注于增长和收益的组合会有这么惊人的回报。

So it's really been in the right place at the right time, and the good news is, you know, with this portfolio, you would really never expect this from a portfolio that's focused on growth and income, but some of the returns have been amazing.

我们的量化增长和收益组合里有联邦农业抵押贷款公司。

So we have federal agriculture mortgage in Quant Growth and Income.

它上涨了32.5%。

It is up 32 and a half percent.

马拉松石油上涨了32%，瓦莱罗能源上涨了30%，雷神技术上涨了27%，菲利普斯上涨了25%，第一源上涨了21%。

We have Marathon Petroleum up 32%, Valero Energy up 30%, RTX Corporation up 27%, Phillips up 25%, FirstSource up 21%.

反过来，我也总是会坦诚地指出表现不佳的股票，最差的那只只下跌了4.6%，第二差的也只下跌了1.64%。

And conversely, pointing out the losers, which I always do to be transparent, the worst performing stock is only down 4.6%, and the second worst performing stock is only down 1.64.

所以你可以看到，我们组合里的赢家远远跑赢输家。

So you can see our winners are way, way, way outperforming the losers in the portfolio.

所以这绝对是一个非常好的产品，尤其是在我们现在所处的这种不确定时期，而且正如我所说，全球各地都有地缘政治问题。

So definitely a really good product for especially periods of uncertainty that we're in now, and as I said, there are geopolitical issues across the world.

中期选举即将到来，回顾1925年以来的25次中期选举，市场通常会在选举前出现回调。

We have the midterm elections coming up, going back to 1925 for the twenty five midterm elections, the market has usually pulled back ahead of that election.

选举后表现不错，但通常在那之前市场会比较疲软。

Does well after the election, but usually the markets are soft prior to that period.

QGNI投资组合似乎证明了在这种市场环境下，杠铃策略是有效的。

The QGNI portfolio seems to be proof that the barbell approach works, during these types of market environments.

确实如此。

It is.

这个组合既注重资本增值，也注重收入生成，但不像Alpha Picks或PQP那样偏向资本增值，那些产品里科技股更多。

And that is focused on both capital appreciation and income generation, but it's not quite as capital appreciation oriented as a product like Alpha Picks or PQP, which tends to have many more technology stocks in it.

但这就是为什么我喜欢这两种方法的原因，我想保持灵活。

But that's why, you know, what I like about both approaches is I wanna be opportunistic.

所以，真正买入这些股票的最佳时机是市场回调的时候。

So really, you know, the best time to get in these stocks is when the market pulls back.

你要找那些基本面强劲但已经从高点回落的公司，现在正是做这件事的好时机。

So you wanna identify companies that have strong fundamentals that have come off their highs, and we're in a perfect period to do that.

我这周早些时候就开始推荐美光科技和闪迪了，人们已经从中受益了。

And I really started pushing Micron Technology and Sandisk really earlier this week, and people have already been rewarded.

投资者开始重新回到一些AI股票，通常基本面好的股票反弹得最猛、最快。

Investors are starting to return to some of these AI stocks, And usually the ones with the good fundamentals come back the sharpest and the fastest.

你担心吗？

Are you worried at all?

我，我仍然对洛克希德·马丁有那些疑问，但你担心吗？

I I still have those questions about Lockheed Martin, but are you worried at all?

或者我猜，你什么时候开始担心像美光科技和闪迪这样的股票还能涨多少？

Or I guess when do you start to worry about how much further the run up has in stocks like Micron and Sandisk?

比如，有哪些迹象会让你退出这些股票？

Like, are the telltale signs that will make you step out of those names?

是的。

Yeah.

当量化评级变成卖出或强烈卖出的时候。

When the quant rating goes to a sell or a strong sell.

那会是什么催化剂导致的呢？

Which would be evidenced by like, what catalyst would cause that to happen?

所以我们会看到这些公司的增长大幅下滑，或者估值飙升，或者盈利能力急剧下降。

So we would see growth for the companies drop dramatically, or we would see the valuation skyrocket, or we would see profitability come off sharply.

我们会看到分析师的修正大幅下调。

We would see analyst revisions come off sharply.

我们也会看到动量大幅减弱。

We could see momentum come off sharply.

所以当我们识别股票时，我们看五个因素，尤其是在买入的时候。

So when we identify stocks, we're looking at five factors, especially when we're buying.

这些因素必须整体上都很强，包括价值、增长、盈利能力、附加项、修正和动量。反过来，当这些因素不奏效时，我们持有的强烈买入和强烈卖出一样多，买入和卖出也一样多。

They have to be collectively strong on those factors, which are value, growth, profitability, add ons, revisions, and momentum, and conversely, when those factors aren't working, And we have just as many strong buys as we have strong sells, and just as many buys as we have sells.

所以这在投资组合中真正达到了平衡，就像有正面的因素一样，也有负面的因素。

So it really equalizes in the portfolio, and just as you have factors that are positive, you have factors that are negative.

所以如果这些基本面良好的公司中任何一家，其因素开始走平或走坏，模型会捕捉到，评级就会下调到卖出或强烈卖出。

So if any of these companies which have these good fundamentals, the factors started to go sideways or south, the model would pick up to it, and the ratings would drop down to sell or straw to sell.

持有对我来说就是持有，我之前也提到过，即使在我们的Alpha Picks投资组合中，如果一只股票跌到持有评级，我们实际上会把它作为持有保留在组合中180天。

Hold as a hold in my book, and I've mentioned before even with our Alpha Picks portfolio, if a stock drops to hold, we actually keep it in the portfolio for one hundred and eighty days as a hold.

所以持有就是持有。

So hold does mean hold.

那么，一只股票从强力买入直接跌到强力卖出，这种情况常见吗？还是说通常是逐步下滑的？

And how typical is it if at all for a stock to go from a strong buy to a strong sell in one fell swoop or is it a gradual kind of decline?

更多是逐步下滑。

It's more of a gradual decline.

你通常不会看到那种情况，但偶尔也会发生，而且通常会对公司的业务产生某种影响。

You typically don't see that, but it does happen on occasion, and typically there'll be some type of impact for a company's business.

可能是各种原因，比如产品停产，或者你知道的，能想到的情况多了去了。

It could be any number of things, their products shut down, or you know, the imagination could go wild on the number of things that happen.

这种情况会发生，但不常见。

It happens, but not that often.

通常更多是渐进的，你知道，从强力买入到持有，然后过一段时间，通常是几个季度，股票会从持有跌到卖出。

It's usually more of a gradual, you know, strong buy to hold, and then after a certain period of time, usually a number of quarters, a stock will drop to from a hold to a sell.

那么关于股息评级，比如你看洛克希德·马丁，我们在Seeking Alpha上展示，三个月前是什么样，六个月前是什么样。

And in terms of the dividend grades, like, you look at Lockheed Martin, we show you on Seeking Alpha, like, three months ago, how it looks six months ago.

你可以看到，他们在股息支付方面一直相当稳定。

And you can see that it's been pretty consistent for them in terms of their dividend payments.

哦，那如果股息快要被削减了，你会看到什么迹象呢？

Oh, what would you see in terms of, like, let's say a dividend is about to be cut.

你会看到什么预兆，还是说你就看到一条新闻说股息被削减了，然后评级就从强力买入变成持有，比如说？

What would you see along the or or do you just see a headline, the dividend's cut, and then it'll go from, like, a strong buy to a hold, let's say?

这个问题问得真好。

That's a really good question.

我们设立股息评级的目的，就是帮助人们避免股息被削减。

And what we try to do with the dividend rates is help people avoid dividend cuts.

这其实是我们设立股息评级的最重要原因——我们不想推荐那些有风险的股票，尤其是对那些依赖股息收入的投资者来说。

That's really the most important fact of why we established the dividend rates is we did not wanna recommend stocks, especially for investors that depend on that income, to be in a risky situation.

所以我很高兴地说，我们回测了2010年以来的数据，发现我们设立的股息评级，尤其是股息安全评级，如果评级在A+到B-之间，那么98%的股息削减都能被避免。

So I am pleased to say that back testing this, going back to 2010, we found with the dividend grades that we put in place, especially for the dividend safety grade, that 98% of dividend cuts were averted if a dividend grade ranged from a plus to b minus.

所以你可以相当放心。

So you can feel fairly comfortable.

明白了吗？

Okay?

所以我们有这些经过回测的指标，只要公司符合这些指标，而且这些指标是相对行业来看的，所以我们才有这些评级。只要公司符合这些指标，从2010年到现在，98%的情况下，如果一只股票的评级在B-到A+之间，股息削减都被避免了。

So we have these metrics set in place that we back tested, and so long as a company meets those metrics, and these are sector relative, so that's why we have these grades, so long as they meet those metrics, in 98% of the instances going back to 2010, dividend cuts were averted if you had a stock that had a grade between b minus and a plus.

反过来，我们发现，所有削减股息的股票中，91.3%的股息评级在F到C+之间。

Conversely, we found that 91.3% of all stocks that cut their dividend had a dividend grade between f and c plus.

所以，如果你持有一只股票，你可以把它输入到投资组合工具里，或者直接在股票页面输入股票代码，然后你看到股息安全评级在F到C+之间，那绝对是一个警告信号。

So if you own a stock and you could put it into the portfolio tool or you just put it on the stock page and put the symbol in, and you see that that dividend grade ranges between that dividend safety grade ranges between f and c plus, that should definitely be a warning flag to you.

你实际上可以点击股息安全评级，它会显示我们关注的所有底层指标。

And you can actually click on the dividend safety grade, and it will show you all the underlying metrics that we look at.

股息安全评级有超过十几个指标，它会显示每个指标是A、B还是F。

And there's over a dozen metrics that we look at for the dividend safety grade, and it will show you with each metric which one has an a, which one has a b, which has an f.

所以这是我肯定会重点关注的东西，这也是一个明显的信号，这就引出了你的问题。

So that is something I would definitely focus on, and that's kind of the telltale, which leads into your question.

希望我们能通过股息安全评级知道一家公司是否有削减股息的风险。

Hopefully, we know by that dividend safety grade if a company is at risk of cutting a dividend.

如果这个评级起作用了，你看到股息安全评级是D，那对你来说就是一个信号：如果你依赖股息，你就不想持有这只股票。

And if it's doing its job and you see a dividend safety grade that's a d, that is an indicator to you, you don't wanna own this stock if you're depending on the dividend.

不过，会有很多情况是公司的股息安全评级是D，但股票却是强烈买入。

Now, will be many situations where companies could have a dividend safety grade of a D, but the stock is a strong buy.

在这种情况下，公司决定要增长盈利，而不是增加股息，所以股息可能会被削减，因为他们把现金流重新投入公司，这可能会让股票成为强烈买入。

And in situations like that, companies have decided that they want to grow their earnings, they don't want to grow their dividend, so the dividend could be susceptible to being cut because they're putting cash flow back into the company, which could make it a straw buy.

所以这是两回事。

So they're two different things.

股息评级只是用来衡量股息安全性、股息增长和股息一致性的。

The dividend grades are there just to really measure dividend safety and dividend growth and dividend consistency.

它们不是我们用来指示股票动量上升或下降的工具。

They are not the tool that we use to indicate the momentum of a stock up or down.

股票的动量会体现在四因子评级和方向性推荐中，你会看到强烈买入、买入或卖出的评级。

That momentum of the stock would be in the quad factor grades and that directional recommendation where you see the rating of strong buy, buy, or sell.

所以如果你依赖股息，即使这只股票是强烈买入，如果股息评级是C、C-、D或D+，你要知道股息存在潜在风险。

So if you are dependent on a dividend, even if this stock is a strong buy, if that dividend grade comes up as a c or c minus or a d or a d plus, know that there is potential risk to that dividend.

首先，这些数据真的很有意思，听起来我们好像已经解决了股息削减的问题。

First of all, that's some really interesting data because it sounds like we've solved for the dividend cut issue.

而且，关于股息评分不高但其他评分很好的情况，其实还有更多细微的差别。

And also, there's more nuance to what it means to have maybe not a great dividend score but great other scores.

所以你买入它可能是出于其他原因，而不是为了赚取收入。

And so you're getting into it for a different reason other than income generation.

对，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

很多很多股票可能股息安全评级或股息增长评级不高，但如果是强力买入，通常每股收益、现金流、营收、估值和盈利能力都表现良好，但代价是没有为股息预留资金。

And many, many, many of stocks can have a poor dividend safety grade or poor dividend growth grade, and it's usually, if it's a strong buy, typically earnings per share is doing well, cash flow is doing well, revenue is doing well, the valuation is good, profitability is good, but it's at the expense of not having money set aside for the dividend.

所以完全有可能，甚至很有可能，有些股票有很好的资本增值潜力，但你的股息可能面临风险。

So it's quite possible, very possible to have stocks that could have good capital appreciation potential, but your dividend could be at risk.

你能想到最近有哪只股票是这样的吗？或者有哪只股票在牺牲股息来追求增长，但后来纠正方向后又把资金重新投入到股息上？

Can you think of a stock in recent memory that was like that and or a stock that was looking to grow at at the risk of their dividend, but then kind of put their power back into the dividend when they did correct course?

你知道吗，我现在一时想不起具体的名字，但我可以告诉你，比如在疫情期间，很多公司因为当时的情况而停止支付股息、暂停股息或削减股息，其中有不少是高质量公司。

You know, I I can't remember predicting my name offhand right now, but I can tell you, like, during the pandemic, a lot of companies stopped paying their dividend or suspended the dividend or cut the dividend because of what was going on, and there were a number of high quality companies that did that.

你知道，通常你会发现科技股把更多的盈利投入到每股收益上，但其中一些会支付股息，不过派息率通常很低。

Know, and often you'll find technology stocks put more of their earnings into the earnings per share, but some of them pay dividends, but the payout ratios are typically low.

收益率相当低，因为更多的重点是为投资者创造股本回报率。

The yields are quite low because more of the focus is on generating a return on equity for the investors.

然后关于洛克希德·马丁，我剩下的问题之一就是围绕地缘政治事件。

And then with Lockheed Martin, one of my remaining questions is just around the geopolitical events.

比如，如果上天保佑，和平降临这个世界，不再有战争，那你对洛克希德·马丁的看法是什么呢？

Like, if, God willing, peace comes to this earth and there's no more fighting, like, what is your narrative about Lockheed Martin?

这是你一直在考虑的事情吗？

Is that something that you're looking at along the way?

他们还有其他优势吗？

Do they have other stuff going for them?

嗯，那将是一个非常正面的故事。

Well, that would be a very good narrative.

希望如此。

Fingers crossed that happens.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得洛克希德·马丁之所以值得持有，而且具有可持续性，其中一个原因就是很多不同类别的军事装备库存已经消耗得非常低，需要重新补充，所以他们未来很可能有相当充足的订单积压。

I think one of the reasons why Lockheed Martin is a good stock to own and the sustainability is that the stockpiles have been drawn so low in so many different military classes that need to be rebuilt that they probably have a pretty good backlog ahead of them.

即使所有这些地缘政治事件一夜之间达成协议，战斗停止，库存也真的非常非常低。

Even if all these geopolitical events overnight, treaties came up and fighting stopped, Stockpiles are really, really low.

石油行业也是一样的情况。

The same thing goes for oil as well.

你知道，如果我们和伊朗达成协议，明天霍尔木兹海峡就开放，你可能会看到油价从八十多美元跌回七十多美元，一些综合石油公司的股票也可能会下跌。

You know, if we had a treaty that occurred with Iran and the Strait Of Arms was open tomorrow, you probably see the price of oil tumble from the high eighties back into the seventies, and you might see some of the integrated oil stocks decline.

但对炼油商来说，这其实是好事。

But for the refiners, that's actually good.

在我们的量化增长和收益投资组合中，我们持有一些炼油商，所以它们实际上会从中受益。

And in our portfolio for the Quant Growth and Income, we have a number of refiners, so they would actually benefit by that.

所以这些股票已经表现不错，但如果和平到来，随着油价下跌，炼油商将继续表现良好。

So the stocks have already done well, but should there be peace, refiners will continue to do well as the price of oil drops.

这实际上提高了他们的利润率。

It actually improves their margins.

我想问一个在社交媒体上看到的问题，我觉得我们之前聊过，但我想对我们的听众再强调一下。

I wanted to ask a question that I saw come up on social media that I feel like we've talked about, but I just wanted to reiterate for our audience.

当你为这些股票做筛选时，你会做筛选，但之后你还会深入分析这些股票。

When you do the screeners for these stocks, you do the screener, but then you also go into the stocks.

你不是仅仅做一个筛选，然后就直接把列表列出来。

You're not just like doing a screener and like then spitting out the list.

你会逐一查看每只股票，确保它确实应该在这个列表里。

You're going into each stock and looking at it to make sure that it belongs in the list.

对吧？

Correct?

嗯，对于像Alpha Picks、QGNI和ProQar组合这样的产品，这确实是一个相当系统化的流程，但本质上，它是根据我设定的参数和标准来识别的。

Well, for stocks like for for products like Alpha Picks and QGNI and the ProQar portfolio, it is a pretty systematic process, but in essence, it's taking parameters and criteria that I have set to identify that.

我确实会逐一审核每一只股票，所以如果有什么让我觉得不对劲，我有——你知道的——一个默认机制，我会覆盖它，这种情况确实会发生。

I do oversee every one of them, So if something does strike me as off, I have a you know, there's a default where I override it, and that does happen.

当我做一月份和七月份的前十名选股时，那更多是手动过程，因为我想在里面加入一点分散投资。

When I do my stock picks for like January top 10 and for July top 10, that's much more of a manual process because I'm trying to add a little diversification in there.

我真的不希望那前十名选股中有40%都集中在同一个行业。

I don't really want 40% of those top 10 picks to be in one sector.

所以我在寻找一点分散性，这更多是手动挑选。

So I'm looking for a little diversification, and that is much more of a manual pick.

但对于其他的，我们有非常严格的标准和参数设定。

But with the other ones, we have very strict criteria and parameters set up.

所以它们大部分是系统化过程，但每周当我们选那些股票时，我都会亲自把关。

So they, for the most part, are systematic processes, but every single week, you know, when we do select those stocks, I am overlooking it.

有没有什么让你觉得特别突出，但因为你某个原因没选进去，然后你会想，哎呀，真希望我当时选了那个。

Anything that sticks out that you didn't include for a for a certain reason, and then you're like, ah, I wish I would have included that.

还是说大部分时候你对结果都挺满意的？

Or has it mostly been you're pretty copacetic with with the results?

说实话，你也应该满意。

As you should be, honestly.

我的天哪。

I mean, my god.

结果本身就说明了一切，但我很好奇有没有什么特别突出的。

They speak for themselves, but curious if there's anything that sticks out.

挺满意的。

Pretty copacetic.

我们的模型，对于QGNI来说，几乎是完美无缺的。

Our, you know, our our model, for QGNI, it's almost like seamless.

你知道，有时候对于Alpha Picks，我们确实有市值限制。

You know, sometimes with Alpha Picks, we do have market cap restrictions.

有时候一家公司可能符合限制条件，但盈利看起来可疑。

Sometimes a company could meet the restrictions, but the earnings could look suspect.

他们可能有负盈利，而且，你知道，对于Alpha Picks，我们想排除任何有负盈利的公司，所以我们希望公司有稳定的增长率。

They may have had negative earnings, and, you know, for Alpha Picks, we wanna exclude any companies that have had negative earnings, so we want a seamless growth rate for a company.

所以有时候我注意到这种情况，就会把那些股票剔除掉。

So there have been times where I've noticed that, and we've taken those stocks out.

PQP几乎没有任何规则，所以我们一般就让它自然发展。

PQP has almost no rules whatsoever, so we tend to, like, let that go.

但即使是PQP，如果公司市值太小，或者有负盈利，我可能就不会让那个选择通过。

But even with PQP of a company has a market cap that's too small, where there are negative earnings, I might not let that selection go through.

史蒂夫，感谢这次对话。

Steve, appreciate this conversation.

和往常一样，有很多金点子，希望大家能免费学到。

As always, there's a lot of golden nuggets I hope people are picking up for free.

这些都是免费的。

They're all for free.

我们免费分享这么多，真是不可思议。

It's crazy how much we're giving away.

史蒂夫，在我们放你走之前，有什么想对观众说的吗？

Steve, any final words for our audience before we let you go?

我想说的是，坚持平衡的方法，尤其是在这个不确定的时期。

I would say just stick without a balanced approach, especially in this period of uncertainty.

企业盈利看起来很不错。

Corporate earnings look great.

我觉得在QG和I里，大部分股票，28只已经公布了业绩，其中24只轻松超出了每股收益预期。

Most of the stocks, I think, in QG and I, 28 of the stocks have reported, 24 handily beat EPS expectations.

我们发现Alpha Picks和PQP的情况也是如此。

We're finding the same to be true for Alpha Picks and PQP.

大多数公司都超出了预期。

Most of the companies are beating expectations.

有些最近确实受到了打击，但所有投资组合年初至今都跑赢了基准。

Some of them have gotten hammered recently, but all the portfolios year to date are beating the benchmarks.

所以我想说，坚持这种多元化配置，如果你有机会看看这些投资组合产品，因为它们是很好的信息来源，也是能带来好收益的点子来源。

So I would say just stick with that diversification, And if you have the opportunity to take a look at these portfolio products, because it's a great source of information and a great source of ideas that do well.

提醒一下，你在本播客中听到的任何内容都不应被视为投资建议。

Just a reminder, anything you hear on this podcast should not be considered investment advice.

这仅供娱乐参考，投资前应咨询持牌专业人士的意见。

This is for entertainment purposes only, and you should seek advice from a licensed professional before investing.

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If you enjoyed the episode, leave a rating or review on your favorite podcasting app, and we'll see you soon with a new episode.