Trend following, technical analysis and why price means everything

欢迎TrendSpider的迈克·通尼-霍夫曼加入投资专家的对话。

Welcome Mike Toney- Hoffman from TrendSpider to Investing experts.

很高兴你能来，迈克。

Really great to have you, Mike.

谢谢你抽出时间。

Thanks for taking the time.

是的，当然。

Yeah, of course.

非常感谢邀请我参加。

Thank you so much for having me.

能来到这里真的很棒。

It's great to be here.

是的，希望你今天过得愉快。

Yeah, I hope you're having a great day.

最近市场表现非常出色，我想大家应该都挺开心的。

The market has been incredible lately, so I think everybody out there is hopefully happy.

确实如此。

It sure has.

很多人可能都想弄清楚，为什么市场最近一直这么强劲，或者至少有些人已经明白了——这算是我们接下来对话的一个小背景。

And I think a lot of people wanting to understand why it keeps looking so good or I guess at this point, some people understanding already as a brief preamble to this conversation.

对于一直收听加里·沃恩在《投资专家》中的访谈的听众来说，他多次提到自己如何利用TrendSpider和Seeking Alpha来做出精准的投资选择，以及他整体的投资策略。

For those of you that have been listening to Gary Vaughn's conversations Investing Experts, he's talked a lot about how he utilizes TrendSpider and Seeking Alpha to come up with his very prescient picks and how he uses his strategy in general.

所以我觉得，邀请TrendSpider的布道者迈克·托尼-霍夫曼来聊聊，真是再合适不过了。

So I thought it would be a great opportunity to get the evangelical Mike Toney-Hoffman.

他的一个角色就是TrendSpider的布道者。

One of his roles is evangelist at TrendSpider.

所以我觉得，最好的起点就是聊聊你的投资和交易历程：你是怎么接触到TrendSpider的？你平时用它来做什么？它又是如何影响和塑造你整体投资策略的？

So I thought a really good place to start would be your investing slash trading journey, how you arrived at TrendSpider, and what you use TrendSpider for, and also how that influences and affects your general investing strategy.

是的。

Yeah.

首先，我特别欣赏加里。

First of all, love Gary.

这人太棒了。

That guy is awesome.

我经常请他来参加TrendSpider的直播节目。

Have him I have him on my the TrendSpider live show all the time.

特别有意思的人。

Super fun guy.

至于我，一开始投资还挺正规的。

But for me, I started off investing well.

我上过大学，拿了商科金融学位。

So I went to school, got a business finance degree.

所以我一直更偏向基本面投资。

So I was always more so a fundamental investor.

我最初是做股息投资的。

Know, looking at I started as a dividend investor.

在上大学学金融之前，我就已经开始接触股市了，那时候就买些股息股票，还有一点ETF。

Before I even like kind of went to school for finance, I kind of got into the markets and just was like, you know, buying dividend stocks, even a little bit of ETFs back then.

我觉得这太合理了。

To me, it just made sense.

就是买下它，每隔几个月它就自动给你钱，你啥也不用干。

It was like, I just buy this thing and it pays me like every few months for not doing anything.

对我来说，这简直就是终极的被动收入妙招。

Like, to me, it just seemed like the ultimate passive, quote unquote, passive income hack.

你买了之后什么都不用做，公司就会把一部分利润分给你。

You buy it, you don't have to do anything and they just pay you small portion of the business's profits.

我觉得这简直太棒了。

I was like, that sounds incredible.

你不用去经营一家公司。

You don't have to run a business.

你只需要买入股份就行。

You just buy into it.

这跟租房不一样，不用到处找租客、收房租。

You know, it's not real estate where you're tracking down tenants and collecting rents.

就是觉得这事儿挺值得做的。

It's just it seemed like a good thing to do.

而这也正是我开始投资的契机。

And yeah, that's really how I got into investing.

从那以后，我就入手了。

But yeah, from there, got it.

我当年上学还真是专攻这个的。

I honestly went to school for it.

我学了很多关于人们如何给公司估值的东西，比如折现现金流分析之类的。

I learned a lot about how companies are valued by people, you know, like discounted cash flow analysis and stuff like that.

后来我开始转变思路，因为刚进金融圈的时候，我发现不是只要公司基本面好，股价就一定会涨。

And that's where I kind of started taking a turn because I was like, you know, because everything when you go in when I went into finance, was like, everything isn't like like, just because a company has good fundamentals doesn't mean the company is gonna go up.

在市场里，这一点你很快就能明白——人人都会踩坑。

And I learned that you learn that quickly in the markets, you know, like everyone makes bad investments.

于是我就慢慢转向了趋势跟踪策略。

And so from there, I kind of got into more like trend following.

那时候我偶尔也交易过期权。

I did trade options for a little bit when I was doing that.

比如卖一些备兑看涨期权，就是些基础的操作。

Like I would sell covered calls, basic stuff like that.

但后来我就意识到，价格才是关键。

But then I was like, you know, price means everything.

所以我转向趋势跟踪，因为如果价格不再上涨，哪怕公司给你分红，也未必有用了。

And that's why I got into trend following because if the price is not going up anymore, even if they're paying you a dividend, it doesn't necessarily matter.

我慢慢明白，价格常常领先于基本面，很多时候都是这样。

I learned, you know, sometimes price leads fundamentals like often more times than not it does.

就连最疯狂的基本面投资者，也会判断失误。

And even like the craziest fundamental investors, they they make bad calls.

事情从来都不是非黑即白的。

Like nothing is black and white.

所以对我来说，价格的逻辑更说得通。

And so to me, it just price made more sense.

一个月前，我们的一个标题还是‘基本面至上’。

I think a month ago, one of our headlines was fundamentals over everything.

当时是一位专注科技领域的分析师说的，毕竟这个板块最常陷入这种讨论——日常交易中，基本面似乎根本没那么重要。

And and that was a tech focused analyst talking about I mean, that is a sector that is, like, most adhering to this conversation in terms of fundamentals don't seem to matter that much in the day to day.

那你是怎么在价格和基本面之间做平衡的呢？

And how do you do that dance between price and fundamentals?

能不能给我们详细讲讲，你是怎么观察到价格逐渐超越基本面这个趋势的？

So maybe if you would give us, like, a little bit of a deeper dive on how you've seen that trajectory in terms of price over fundamentals?

对。

Yeah.

那我从头说起吧。

So I'll take it back.

我入行差不多十年了，这期间有好几次，我都因为太看重基本面而错失了巨大的机会。

There's been a few times in I mean, I've been in the markets for about a decade now, about ten years, and there's been several times in my past where I've missed some really big opportunities because of fundamentals.

我说的基本面，指的是那种传统价值投资的思路，比如像巴菲特那样，专挑市盈率低、公司稳健的股票。

And when I say fundamentals, I guess I'm more talking about like more traditional, like value investors, Warren Buffett type, like looking for a low PE ratio, like solid company, stuff like that.

我第一个想到的就是特斯拉。

And so the first one that comes to mind is Tesla.

2019年、2020年的时候，人人都看衰它。

You know, back in 2020, 2019, everybody hated this.

那些注重基本面的投资者都讨厌这只股票，因为那时候它一直在亏钱。

Our fundamentals fundamental investors hated this stock because, you know, they were burning money.

太投机了。

It was very speculative.

他们连基本的盈利都做不到，根本谈不上什么稳健。

You know, they weren't paying to do it like all that good stuff.

但结果呢？在2019到2020年那几年，它成了你所能做的最好的投资之一。当然，我不是说基本面完全不重要。

And it ended up being one of the best investments you could have possibly made for like several years back in like 2019, 2020, which, you know, and I wouldn't say fundamentals don't matter at all.

我觉得把基本面和技术面结合起来，才是关键。

I think a good combination of fundamentals and technicals is kind of the move, kind of what matters.

真正让特斯拉起飞的，是它的经营性现金流转正，同时技术图表上也出现了非常漂亮的走势。

Because when Tesla really started popping off is when their operating cash flow turned positive and it was aligning up very nicely on a chart.

我从读马克·米勒维尼和威廉·欧尼尔的书中学到了很多东西。

I've learned a lot of stuff from reading books from guys like Mark Minervini and William O'Neil.

这两个人都很注重技术分析，尤其是米勒维尼。

And those guys are very much technical focus, specifically Minervini.

但威廉·欧尼尔我也学了不少，因为他关注的是未来有潜力的公司。

But then William O'Neil, I learned a lot from him because he was looking at future potential companies.

不是看公司现在表现多好、分红多高、估值多便宜。

Like instead of a company is doing great right now, they're paying a good dividend, they're valued at a good price.

而是找那些未来三五个月、一年后会大涨的标的。

They're looking for the stuff that's going to be traded at a good price in like three months from now, a year from now.

我觉得市场从来都是往前看的。

And I think the market is very forward looking.

所以这一点一直印在我脑子里：当一家公司从‘可能明年会不错’变成‘现在真不错了’的时候。

So that kind of just stuck with me because the second a company goes from, you know, they might be good in a year to like, alright, now they're good.

行情早就走完了。

The move has already gone.

所以这就是为什么我觉得，价格是你唯一能预测未来走势的方式。

And so that's why I'm like, you know, price is the only way that you can possibly predict that.

而基本面呢，是在事情真正发生后才来验证这个趋势的。

And fundamentals kind of confirm the story when it actually happens.

那你能不能给我们详细讲讲，你主要关注哪些指标，怎么决定买入，又什么时候卖出？

So maybe walk us through the metrics that you are focusing on, and how you decide to buy something, and when you decide to get out of it.

当然可以。

Sure, sure.

首先，我每天都用 TrendSpider。

So, so for one, I use TrendSpider all the time.

我设了好几个扫描器，每天开盘前都会给我发邮件提醒。

So I have several scanners that are sending me emails pretty much every single morning before the market opens.

这些扫描器的参数直接来自马克·米涅尔文尼的策略，不是我们自己瞎编的。

These scanners are actually directly from Mark Minervini not like we built them based on these guys' strategies.

比如我们有个突破扫描器，对吧？

So we have a canceller scanner, right?

这个扫描器主要是找每股收益增长、年度盈利增长，重点关注行业龙头、机构持股和动量。

And this one is basically looking for, you know, EPS growth, annual earnings growth, basically just like focusing on leaders, institutional ownership and, momentum.

动量是我学到的最重要的因素之一。

Momentum is one of the biggest things that I've learned.

我在TrendSpider直播里请过不少投资界的顶尖人物。

Like, I've had a lot of people like investing champions on my, on the TrendSpider Live.

我请过发明随机RSI的那个人，还有其他几位高手，当然也包括马克·米涅尔尼。

I've had like, guy that made the stochastic RSI and all these guys and Mark Minervini too.

他们全都推崇《投资者商业日报》的理念，也就是威廉·欧尼尔的那一套。

They're all, and investor business investors business daily like William O'Neil's thing.

他们全都强调相对强度。

They're all focusing on relative strength.

如果非让我挑一个最重要的点，那就是相对强度和绝对强度。

And I think that's if anyone had to take one thing away from what I'm looking for, it's relative strength and absolute strength.

两者相似，但有区别。

Similar but different.

相对强度指的是某只股票与其所在板块或整个市场的表现对比。

Relative strength is how a stock is doing compared to its sector or to the overall market.

比如说，如果一只股票的相对表现指标在TrendSpider上显示为95，

So basically, if a stock has a relative performance, we have the indicator on TrendSpider, it's called relative performance of like 95.

而你拿它和标普500做比较，那就意味着它跑赢了标普500中95%的股票，或者你所选的任何股票组合。

And you're comparing it to like the S and P 500, it basically means it's outperforming 95% of the S and P 500 or whatever basket of stocks you're comparing it to.

能把市场上成千上万只股票筛选出那些表现最强、相对强度突出的少数几只，这可能是我最看重的一点。

And the ability to filter the entire thousands of stocks down from the market into just a basket of stocks that are outperforming everything that have strong relative strength is probably the most important thing that I look for.

这就是相对强度，对吧？

And so that's relative strength, right?

后来我从图沙尔·钱迪那里学到了绝对强度的概念。

And then I learned absolute strength a lot from Tushar Chandi.

他有个叫CHATS的指标。

He has this CHATS indicator.

这个叫钱迪绝对趋势强度指标。

This is Chandi absolute trend strength indicator.

不是把一只股票和指数或其他股票比较，而是把它和自己的历史表现对比。

And instead of looking at a stock compared to an index or other stocks, you're looking at a stock compared to itself.

所以我现在有自己的指标，都是我反复回测过的。

And I took so I have my own indicators now that I know I've back tested a lot.

我目前最看重的绝对强度指标有两个：一个是变化率，另一个是EMA的斜率，也就是现在EMA的值和X天前相比的变化情况。

And my favorite absolute strength metric that I look at right now is one, rate of change and then also an EMA slope, which is basically comparing where the EMA is now compared to it was X days ago.

变化率你要是不清楚，简单说就是股票相比X天前上涨了多少百分比。

And then rate of change, if you don't know, is basically what X percent a stock went up compared to what was X days ago.

所以我用的是整整一百天的变化率，而且希望至少达到30%。

And so I'm using specifically the one hundred day rate of change, and I want it to be at least 30%.

达到这个标准，我就觉得这只股票有内在动力。

And then from there, I'm like, all right, the stock has strength.

然后再看它的相对强度。

I look at the relative strength.

这样我就能把符合我标准的股票筛选出来。

And that's basically how I filter down stocks that meet my criteria.

这些全部都是通过TrendSpider跑出来的。

And this is literally all ran through TrendSpider.

每天早上我都会收到一封邮件，里面列着这些股票。

Like I get lists of these stocks sent to me every single morning in my email.

然后我会用我们的Sidekick AI给它们排序，顺便帮我做基本面分析，具体选哪只得看情况。

And then I used our Sidekick AI to rank them and basically do the fundamental research for I allocate so I pick it depends.

我一般会保持一个趋势跟踪型的投资组合。

So I generally have a portfolio in my trend falling portfolio.

我会有一个长期投资组合，一个波段交易组合，还有一个趋势跟踪组合。

You know, have like a long term investing portfolio and then like a swing trading and then my trend falling portfolio.

我规定任何时候最多只持有25只股票。

I have a max allocate or max number of stocks in there at any one time of 25 stocks.

具体选哪些，得看扫描结果出来什么，还有当天我对市场的感觉。

So it depends what's pulling up on my scanners, how I feel about the market that day.

基本流程就是跑一遍扫描，把所有结果过一遍，然后把我的持仓组合发给Sidekick，它现在能直接访问了，这是最近更新的功能。

But basically, run my scanner, I look at all the results, and I give Sidekick my portfolio, which it has access to now, it's a recent update.

我会跟Sidekick说：看看我目前的持仓，再看看这些扫描结果，帮我挑出最有潜力成为未来市场领头羊的股票，按EPS增长、收入增长这些指标排个序。技术面已经通过扫描筛选过了，没问题。

And I say, Sidekick, look at my current allocations and then look at these scan results and then tell me what you think are the best ones, rank them in order based on their potential to be future market leaders, their EPS growth, their revenue growth, everything already meets my technical criteria, thanks to the scan.

所以我主要靠Sidekick来确认基本面，然后给我排序。

So I'm mostly using Sidekick to confirm the fundamentals for me and then rank them in order.

之后我再手动逐个看走势图，挑出看着最顺眼的那几只。

And then I do the manual work of going through each chart and, you know, picking out which ones look best to me.

我就是用一些基础指标，比如9日EMA和21日EMA。

You know, I just use basic stuff like the nine EMA, the 21 EMA.

我一般不太喜欢追高买入。

I don't like to buy stuff too.

理想情况是，在支撑位附近，也就是9日和21日EMA那里进场。

Ideally, you buy it around the support, around the nine twenty one EMA.

然后我会给每只股票分配固定比例的仓位。

And then, yeah, I allocate basically a specific percent of my portfolio to each name.

最后设置追踪止损，这都集成在TrendSpider的指标里了。

And then I set a trailing stop, which is all built into my TrendSpider indicator.

我的指标里已经设置了动量过滤器。

I have my momentum filters both in my indicator.

当两个条件都满足时，蜡烛会显示为绿色；只满足一个时，就显示蓝色。

They literally just paint the candles green when it matches both of them or blue when it matches one of them.

一旦进场，我就用内置的追踪止损，设置的是20%，当然你可以调整，或者改用EMA来设定。

And then once I get in, I have a trailing stop built in, which is a 20% trailing stop, which you can modify, of course, or set it to whoever you want in EMA.

通常我遵守规则的话，就让价格回调，直到触及追踪止损点。

And then generally, when I follow my rules, I let it come back down and hit that trailing stop.

我退出的唯一时机，就是趋势真正反转的时候。

And that's the only time I exit is when the trend breaks, essentially.

在开始录之前，你提到昨天你打破了自己的一套策略。

Before we hit record, you were telling me that you broke your strategy yesterday.

我很喜欢听人讲自己什么时候打破了策略，因为这特别有教育意义，能帮我们这些投资者思考：为什么、在什么情况下会打破规则，从而更好地构建自己的策略。

And I love when people break their strategy because I think it's very educational for us to hear why and when you break your strategy, and I think helps us as investors formulate our own strategy in terms of, okay, we're smart.

我们确实想出了很棒的策略，但人不可能完美。

We've come up with this great strategy, but we're not perfect.

总得留点灵活调整的空间。

And there's always room for flexibility.

没错。

Absolutely.

当然。

Yeah.

我不确定这期节目播出的时候是什么时候，但我相信你们肯定已经听说了，或者很快就会听说。

So I don't know when this episode is coming out, but I'm sure you guys will hear about it or have heard about it.

毕竟，半导体板块的股票最近几乎全都涨得飞快。

But, like, you know, obviously, all semiconductor stocks mostly have been just absolutely flying.

Sidekick AI 一直提醒我买美满电子的股票。

And Sidekick AI was screaming for me to buy Marvell stock.

五月中旬的时候，它就发了警报，或者在扫描器里冒了出来。

It had an alert or like showed up in my scanner in mid May.

后来我的追踪止损点还是被触发了。

And I eventually had some trailing stops hit.

所以我给投资组合留了一些空余仓位。

So I added some open space in my portfolio.

于是我就入手了马威尔的股票。

And so I took a position in Marvell.

就在昨天或者前天，英伟达的CEO黄仁勋直接说它是下一个千亿美元级别的公司。

And then just like yesterday or two days ago, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang was basically calling it the next trillion dollar company.

我觉得现在它的市值大概在两千五百亿美元左右。

I think it's at about at 250,000,000,000 right now.

这带动了马威尔股价的上涨。

And that sends Marvell up.

前几天它的股价一天就涨了百分之四十四。

I think it was 44% in a single day just the other day.

通常情况下，我会再等等。

And normally, I would wait.

毕竟，我的追踪止损点也跟着上调了不少，这本来是好事。

Like, obviously, my trailing stop moved up X percent, which would be great.

但我现在就坐在这儿，盯着图表看。

But I'm just sitting here looking at the chart literally right now.

这简直太疯狂了。

It's just absolutely insane.

通常我会持有，等趋势破了再考虑回落。

Yes, like normally I like to hold things, let them break their trend before they come back down.

也许我会后悔在高位卖出。

And maybe I'll regret selling into strength.

但我还是卖了Marvell，毕竟一家两千五百亿美元的公司一天涨了百分之四十多，说到底，我们都是普通人。

But I did go ahead and sell into strength on Marvell because when a $250,000,000,000 company moves 40 plus percent in a single day, I think at some point, you know, we're all human.

我们得明白，回测再精确，也不可能面面俱到。

Like we have to kind of like understand the limitations of falling back tests like to a T.

我觉得，交易中有时候你看到某些情况，就会觉得不对劲。

And I don't know, I think it's just a part of trading where it's like you see some things and you're like, this just isn't right.

对我来说，不趁机离场的风险，比继续持有还要大。

And I feel like it's just the risk of not taking this off for me outweighs the risk of leaving it staying on.

但我并没有全卖完。

And I didn't sell it completely.

我卖掉了大概一半多一点的仓位，说实话，就是想留点仓位继续盯着。

I sold about a little bit over half my position, to be fair, just so I have something in there to continue that.

不过说实话，有时候我会画一下斐波那契回撤位。

But yeah, I mean, sometimes, you know, I drew like the fib retracements.

价格正好打到2.618的位置，然后被狠狠弹回来了。

It's hitting like the 2.618 and it rejected it to a T.

我是在盘后交易时段卖的。

I sold it in the overnight session.

我当时就想，算了。

I was like, you know what?

这事儿真让我心慌，因为我特别笃定，这些涨幅迟早要吐回去。

This is going to stress me out because I'm just like super confident it's going to give back a lot of those gains.

所以我就想，算了。

And so I was like, you know what?

我这时候就打破了自己的策略。

I'm breaking the strategy right here.

这也不是什么大不了的事。

It's not the end of the world.

你可以拿它跟自己的策略做个对比。

And, you know, you can compare it to like your strategy.

我可以回看我的回测数据，看看我的平均盈利大概是百分之多少，然后以此为依据。

Like I can go back to my backtest and see like, you know, my my average winner is like X percent, and kind of base it off that.

但不管怎样，有时候就是感觉某件事特别对劲。

But either way, it's just sometimes things just just seem right.

而且我们毕竟不是机器。

And yeah, we're not computers.

明白吗？

Know?

我们不是机器，就连计算机的模型也不是万无一失的。

We're not computers, and even the computer's PS are not infallible.

它们也一样会出错。

They too are fallible.

没错。

Exactly.

其实看看马尔文这家公司，我更明白为什么加里用TrendSpider和Seeking Alpha了。

Actually, looking at Marvel, it makes me understand more why Gary uses TrendSpider and Seeking Alpha.

因为听你讲动量如何影响你的策略，我也想到了我们那个量化系统。

Because looking at and also hearing you talk about momentum and how it figures into your strategy also made me think of our quant system.

所以我查了一下，现在是持有状态。

So I took a look, and it's on hold.

马尔文在各项指标上都是A+，只有估值这一项是不及格，所以最终评级是持有，不是买入。

And Marvell has A, A pluses on every metric except for valuation which is a failing grade which makes it a hold not a buy.

挺有意思的，能这么对比一下，我其实想问，我在Seeking Alpha都快二十年了，想想真疯狂。

So it's interesting to kind of like compare and contrast and see where you get I wanted to ask, you know, I've been at Seeking Alpha almost two decades, which is insanity.

但我记得刚进Seeking Alpha那会儿，技术分析根本没人懂。

But I remember when I first started at Seeking Alpha, technical analysis was definitely not widely understood.

当时确实被很多人不屑一顾。

It was definitely poo pooed by a lot of people.

这些年我看到这方面发生了很大的变化。

I've seen a really big change in that regard, you know, over the years.

现在更多人开始明白技术分析的优势了。

I I think a lot more people understand the advantage of using technical analysis.

你怎么看？

What would you say?

你觉得现在还有很多人不理解技术分析，或者依然看不起它吗？

Like, are people do you still find that people don't understand it enough or poo poo it?

你对我们的听众想说说技术分析这件事吗？

Or what would you say about technical analysis to our audience?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

不，我同意。

No, I agree.

说实话，我还挺年轻的，没在市场里待多久。

Well, mean, haven't been I'm still pretty young, so I haven't been around the markets as long as.

哦，那挺好。

Oh, that's nice.

不，不是那意思。

No, no, no.

我也还很年轻。

I'm still pretty young too,

我根本不是在说你。

I wasn't even talking about you.

我认识的一些人，早就投身市场了，总管我叫‘毛头小子’，一直这么叫。

Some of the guys I talked to have been into the markets, you know, like they're always just calling me the young buck, you know, like all my lives.

我有个朋友叫罗伯特。

Like I have this guy, Robert on.

他当金融顾问整整二十年了。

He was a financial adviser for, like, twenty years.

所以我特别喜欢跟这些前辈聊天，看看他们是怎么积累经验的。

So I always just love talking to these guys and seeing, like, their experience.

比如图沙尔·尚迪，他在九十年代就是做趋势跟踪的。

Like, Tushar Shandy, he was a trend follower in the nineties.

那时候我还没出生呢。

Like, I was like, was not even born.

所以我就想，没错，技术分析我确实认同。

And so I was like, yeah, but technical analysis, I agree.

说实话，图表真正普及开来，也不过是最近几年的事。

I mean, charts themselves didn't even really become fully commoditized until pretty recently.

我们在TrendSpider经常说，我们提供的东西很多，当然也有图表，但那不是核心。

Like, that's something we say at TrendSpider is like our We offer a lot of stuff and of course, we offer charts, but that's not like the main thing.

谁家不提供图表呢。

Like, everybody offers charts.

现在你去哪儿都能免费拿到图表了。

You can go to get charts for free anywhere now.

这其实也就是最近几年才变成这样的，你知道吧？

And that's been like a relatively recent thing, you know?

最早的那些技术分析高手，比如我记得有个叫达维斯的，就是尼古拉斯·达维斯。

The original, like, technical analysis guys, like some guy that comes to mind is like Darvice, at least as Nicholas Darvice.

还有杰西·利弗莫尔这些人。

He would literally and Jesse Livermore.

他们刚入市的时候，真的就靠报纸上的数字，或者 ticker tape 上蹦出来的数字来盯盘。

Like these guys, when they started trading, they were literally just looking at numbers on a like on a newspaper or, like, putting up numbers like ticker tapes or whatever.

他们完全是靠盯着数字，自己悟出了技术分析。

And they learned technical analysis just from, like, looking at numbers.

所以这变化真的太大了。

And so it's really changed a lot.

我们现在能用 AI 做自定义指标，还有现成的图表，简直不可思议。

And the fact that we have, you know, charts now we can code custom indicators with AI is insane.

但对于普通投资者来说，金融和交易这一行层次可多了。

But just to like the the average, I guess, investor, you know, there's there's a lot of levels to finance and trading and stuff.

不过我觉得，现在的普通投资者对技术分析多少都有些了解。

But I'd say like to the average investor, I think most people have a decent idea of technicals at this point.

我经常跟人聊天，不管是刚入门的新手，还是在市场里泡了几十年的老手。

From what I've seen, I talk to a lot of people all the time, like beginner traders, like people that have been in the markets forever.

大家至少都对技术分析的基本概念有个大概印象，但还没真正吃透。

I think everybody at least has a general idea of the basics of technicals, but not fully there.

很多人的理解其实并不深入。

Like you can tell like a lot of most people, they don't have like a deep understanding.

比如你会看到有人提到移动平均线交叉，这倒是挺好的。

Like they'll see, you'll see people like reference like moving average crossovers, which is great.

这种指标确实值得一看。

I mean, it's a great thing to look at.

我自己也一直在用。

It's something I still look at all the time.

但要是深入探讨技术分析，特别是我之前提到的相对强度和绝对强度，我觉得大多数人根本没怎么理解这些。

But getting down deep into technicals, specifically what I was talking about earlier as relative strength and absolute strength, I don't think people understand that nearly enough.

我认为这正是技术分析里最大的盲点——很多人只懂点皮毛。

And I think that's one of the biggest gaps that is in there in technical analysis is just a lot of people know the basics.

很多人一想到技术分析，就只会画趋势线之类的东西。

Like you draw like when a lot of people think about technical analysis, they think about trend lines and stuff like that.

但对我而言，那些根本算不上真正的技术分析，我压根不用趋势线。

But to me, that's like not really even like, I don't use trend lines at all.

我用的是水平支撑阻力位，至于趋势线，在我看来，那基本就是新手的标志，不过也没关系，谁都是从零开始的。

I use like horizontal levels, but trend lines, to me, like, that's just a telltale that somebody is, probably very new in technical analysis, which is not bad, you know, it's you got to learn.

我不是说趋势线策略本身有多差，但其实还有很多更扎实的量化方法可以做。

And I'm not saying it's a bad strategy per se, but, there's a lot more like actual numbers that you can do.

你可以用相对强度来做历史回测。

You can back test based on relative strength.

甚至用移动平均线交叉也可以做回测。

You can back test based on moving average crossovers even.

像趋势线这种东西，当年就是让我对技术分析望而却步的原因。

Stuff like trend lines, it's kind of just like that's where like why what deterred me away from learning technical analysis back in the day.

我当时就想，这到底是个啥？

Was like, what is it like?

这种东西根本没法回测，这说不通。

There's no way you can't back test this.

一开始我完全搞不明白。

And it just didn't make sense to me at first.

但一旦你真正开始研究技术分析，比如相对强度，还有真正去回测信号出现后价格的走势变化。

But once you really start studying technical analysis, like relative strength and actually back testing how things move after the signals come about.

那时候你才会明白，技术分析根本不是什么玄学、黑魔法，或者什么撒点魔法粉就能灵验的东西。

I think that's when, like, most people, like, realize, like, this isn't just like, what do they call technical analysis, like black magic or whatever it is, berry dust, you know.

你对技术分析的理解有没有深入到改变交易策略的程度？

Has your knowledge of technical analysis deepened to the point that you've altered your strategy?

比如，是因为用了TrendSpider才这样的吗？

Like, is it from using TrendSpider?

是因为在你的直播节目中和人交流吗？

Is it from talking to people on your live show?

你是怎么在这一段时间里慢慢提升的？

Like, how has it developed over the course of your of your time?

是啊，进步很大。

Oh, yeah.

非常多。

A ton.

说实话，要不是在TrendSpider的这段经历，我现在的交易水平绝对没这么高。

I mean, honestly, like, I wouldn't be half the trader I was now if it wasn't for my time here at TrendSpider.

首先，是这里的人。

Like, for one, it's the people here.

TrendSpider的每个人都对市场特别着迷。

Like, everybody that works at TrendSpider is, you know, super into the markets.

我们团队开会的时候，总是聊各自的交易，几乎一直在讨论市场动态。

Like, we can all have conversations about like, we have team meetings and we'll just all the time just talk about our trades and just like we're just constantly talking about the markets.

这些人都特别聪明。

And these guys are super smart.

他们都在开发交易机器人。

These guys are building trading bots.

有人做期货交易的机器人，还有各种不同的交易策略。

These guys are building bots for like futures and just trading all these different strategies.

我们这儿什么人都有。

You know, we got everybody.

有做投资的。

We got people that are investors.

有做均值回归的，专门抄底买入。

We got people that trade mean reversion like they're buying the dips.

也有像我这样做动量交易的。

We got people that trade momentum like me.

每天都能接触到团队里这么多不同背景的人。

We got people that is just being exposed to all these different kinds of people on the team every day.

当然，为平台开发指标来帮助大家理解，让我学到了非常多。

And of course, building indicators for the platform to like show people has taught me an insane amount.

另外，还有我的直播，也让我收获很大。

And then, yeah, and on top of that, my live streams.

我真的学到了很多东西。

I've learned so much.

就像我之前说的，图沙尔·桑迪斯对我而言是个特别棒的导师。

Like I was saying, Tushar SanDisk has been an excellent mentor for me.

他经常来我的直播里和大家交流。

Like he'll come on the live stream all the time.

我从他那里学到了很多关于他自研指标的知识。

And I've learned a ton about his custom indicators that he built.

我还请过马特·卡鲁索来过，他也在平台上分享了自己的指标，其实就是一个相对强弱指标。

I've had a Matt Caruso on who has one of his own custom indicators on the platform as well, which is basically just another relative strength indicator.

就是那个Cars指标。

It's like the the cars indicator.

这是一种自适应的相对强度，他会把一只股票和它的板块之类的做对比。

It's like adaptive relative strength where he compares, you know, a stock to its sector and stuff like that.

再加上这些因素，听播客、跟这些人在里面交流，真的让我开始回测，用平台来构建自己的交易策略。

And then, yeah, just just the combination of all that, listening to podcasts and with these guys in them really just brought me to start back testing, you know, using the platform to build my own strategies.

如果没有TrendSpider，没有在这里工作，没有做这些直播，我敢肯定，就算有Sidekick，我也早就坐在那儿，拿着Sidekick AI，一连几个小时用Karen方法拆解我的回测，直到最后跟自己说：‘迈克，你这样挺好的。’

And without TrendSpider, without working here, without doing these live shows, I can for sure say that I would be and even with Sidekick, like I've I've literally sat there with Sidekick AI, for hours at a time using the Karen method to pick apart my back test until it was like, you know what, Mike?

我觉得你做得不错。

I think you're doing fine.

我通常会在最后问这个问题，但我觉得现在问正合适。

I usually ask this at the end, but I feel like it's a good time to ask it.

我最近开始问别人，他们在投资或者生活上有没有什么座右铭。

I, I've started asking people if they have a motto when it comes to investing or life.

你有吗？

Do you have one?

座右铭。

A motto.

座右铭。

A motto.

座右铭。

A motto.

说实话，我不觉得自己有座右铭，但如果非要说的话，那就是不断学习。

Honestly, I wouldn't say I have a motto, but I guess my motto would be just keep learning.

你得明白，交易就是不断被市场打脸。

You got to I mean, trading is just constantly, being, proven wrong by the market.

我要对别人说的只有一句：保持谦逊，明白市场总会变，现在有效的策略将来未必还管用。

I guess my only thing I would have to say to people is just stay humble, understand that the market is going to change, that what's working now is not going to work.

我播客里曾经请过一位叫罗伯特的嘉宾，来自PiTrade。

Maybe I had some guy on my podcast name is Robert from PiTrade.

他说了什么来着？叫什么来着？

Believe but he was saying, what what do you call it?

可能结果的范围。

The the range of possible outcomes.

你得时刻留意任何可能影响你交易的状况，什么都不能忽视。

You always have to be looking for anything and anything to hap any anything and everything to happen to your trade.

没人料到市场会从低点一路暴涨到这种地步。

No one was expecting the market probably to go in this insane rally from the bottom.

过去六个月，SPY大概只有十天是下跌的，感觉就是这样。

Like, SPY has basically had like 10 red days in like the last six months, it feels like.

所以你必须做好应对一切情况的准备。

So you just gotta really be prepared for anything.

我想这就是我想说的。

I guess it would is what I would say.

唯一不变的就是变化本身。

The only constant is change.

对，完全没错。

Yeah, absolutely.

你会关注宏观层面的因素吗？

Do you look at all on the macro side of things?

我尽量避开那些不符合我策略的东西。

I try to stay away from a lot of things that don't fit my strategy.

说实话，我现在并不太关注宏观因素。

Like I'm I wouldn't say I focus a lot on macro now.

当然，我还是会留意世界上正在发生的事。

Like, obviously, I keep up with what is going on in the world.

但根据我的经验，对我个人来说，最好的方式就是忽略那些跟我的策略无关的信息，只关注我的策略是否有效、目前哪些股票表现好，其他的一概不管。

But from what I've seen, like it's for me personally, it's it suits me best to kind of ignore anything that doesn't specifically matter to my strategy and just focus on if my strategy is working, which stocks are performing right now and kind of ignore everything else.

所以坦白说，我当然还是会关注。

So honestly, know, of course, I follow it.

有时候助手会提醒我，哎，这事发生了。

A sidekick will always be like, Oh, this is happening.

这事发生了。

This is happening.

我会稍微留意一下，但大部分时候，其实不会。

And I take it into like kind of accounts, but for the most part, honestly, no.

我觉得吧，说不定你和一些听众也能理解这种感觉。

Like, I feel like, I don't know, I'm sure maybe you will get this and some of the people out there listening will get this.

我不敢说我的目标就是那样，但我一直想做到像马克·米涅尔尼在那次采访里那样——有人问他这家公司是做什么的，他当场就愣住了。

But I wouldn't say my goal is to be, but I strive to be like Mark Minervini on that one interview where people like, he was asked, like, what does this company do?

他当时直接卡壳了。

He's like, like, he kinda froze up.

我说真的，我也说不上来。

I like, I don't know.

你得有这样的专注度，才能真正做到这样。

It's like, I that's how locked into a strategy you have to be.

只要跟你的策略无关，我觉得就别去管它。

Like, if it doesn't matter to your strategy, like, you I I think you shouldn't pay attention to it.

对。

No.

我明白。

I hear that.

我觉得在播客里尤其显得让人意外，因为我们现在天天看短视频，都是切片、金句，非得这么精炼不可。

I I think especially on podcasts, it comes across as somewhat surprising because we're in a reality where we're looking at clips all the time and it's always like a sound bite and it's this and it always has to be.

所以当有人连这家公司是干嘛的都说不清楚时，你就会怀疑他其他话的真实性。

So when somebody's like I'm not actually sure what that company does like it makes you doubt the veracity of everything else that they're saying.

但其实恰恰相反。

But actually I would say it's the exact opposite.

只要你够自律，专注策略，能赚钱、能跑赢市场，那就没问题。

If you're disciplined enough to put on blinders and be profitable and make alpha, like, you're doing fine.

是的。

Yeah.

不对。

No.

对。

Yeah.

这正是我最爱的梗，原因就在这儿。

That is literally my favorite meme because of exactly that.

对我来说，这简直就是‘懂的自然懂’的定义。

Like, it's basically the definition to me of like, if you know, you know.

对啊。

Like Yeah.

那些人一味批评，其实是没明白，每个人在市场里都有自己的路子。

Everyone hating on that just doesn't understand, that everybody has their their own path in the market.

你明白我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

要是这事儿跟你没关系，那根本没必要在意。

Like like, if it doesn't matter to you, then it shouldn't matter.

你找股票，不就是看那些突破高位、相对强度高的上涨趋势吗？

Like, you're looking for stocks and nice uptrends breaking out high relative strength.

你知道的，你根本不用非得搞清楚公司是干嘛的，你看它收入在涨，盈利在涨，趋势向上，这就够了。

Like, you know, you can just look at the you don't have to, like, know exactly what the company like, you can see, like, their revenue is growing, their EPS is growing, they're trending.

它的相对强度非常出色。

They have great relative strength.

而且呢，你冒点小风险，就在这一个机会上赌一把，一周的事儿。

And, you know, you take the risk, you take a small little risk on this one bet in like a week.

你做了那么多笔交易，真有那么重要吗？

Like you end up taking so many trades where it's like, does it really matter?

这一笔交易，要么涨，要么跌，就这么简单。

Like this trade is either going to go up or it's going to go down.

价格才是唯一重要的东西。

The price is the only thing that matters.

我要么小亏止损，要么好好管理这笔交易，赚点钱。

And like, I'm either going to get stopped out for a small loss or I'm going to, you know, manage the trade and make some money.

我认识不少人，专门深耕某个领域。

Like I know a lot of people that definitely nail down into a specific sector.

我认识好多专家，就专攻半导体，那可是他们的主业。

Like, I know a lot of people that are specifically like semiconductor experts or like their that's like their bread and butter as a semiconductor sector.

说实话，这招挺管用的。

And honestly, that's paid off.