The Arms Race for AI Capital: How Anthropic, Goldman, and Private Equity Are Reshaping Investing

您可以通过广播、YouTube、investtalk.com直播，以及我们的播客订阅渠道收听。

On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers.

欢迎收听《投资对话》，独立思考，共享成功。

This is Invest Talk, independent thinking, shared success.

本节目由KPP金融公司赞助支持，这是一家为全美客户提供服务的注册投资顾问公司。

Invesco is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment adviser firm serving clients throughout The United States.

接下来为您介绍KPP金融的投资组合经理，卢克·格雷罗。

Here is KPP Financial portfolio manager, Luke Guerrero.

欢迎大家收听2026年5月8日星期五的《投资对话》节目。

Welcome everybody to the Friday, 05/08/2026 edition of Invest Talk.

我是您的主持人卢克·格雷罗，接下来大约五十分钟，我会陪大家梳理这一周的要点，为即将到来的周末做好准备，希望您能度过一个平静放松的假期。

I'm your host, Luke Guerrero, and I'll be with you over the next fifty or so minutes while we round out the week and send ourselves off into what hopefully is a calm and relaxing weekend.

和往常一样，今天我们准备了不少话题要聊。

As always, we got a bunch of stories to talk about today.

我们也准备了解答大家的许多问题。

We have plenty of questions to answer.

在开始之前，我想提醒大家，我们周三刚结束了最新的 Invest Talk 财富研讨会，主题是通货膨胀。

Before we get started with that, I do wanna remind you that we did wrap up our latest Invest Talk Wealth webinar on Wednesday where we talked all about inflation.

和往常一样，我们一半时间讲解了如何在通胀时期调整投资组合，另一半时间回答了观众提出的财务和投资问题。

As always, we did about a fifty fifty split between a presentation on how you can orient your portfolio in inflationary times, and then the other half answered finance and investment questions from our audience.

如果你错过了周三的研讨会，现在可能还没上线，但很快就会发布在我们的 YouTube 频道上。

If you missed the webinar, which was on Wednesday, it if it's not available yet, it should be available soon over on our YouTube channel.

去 YouTube 搜索一下 Invest Talk，注意是两个 t。

Just head over to YouTube and search Invest Talk with two t's.

稍后我们会聊聊今天的市场表现，逐项过一遍节目内容。

Now in just a bit, we'll talk about today's market performance and run down those show topics.

不过在那之前，咱们先来回答一个新来的听众问题吧？

But why don't we start off the show by answering a fresh collar question?

我打电话是想问问 CVS 这家公司。

I'm calling in about CVS.

我之前

I've

买了

bought

买了一点，想知道你们觉得是该全仓进场，还是继续分批慢慢买，等价格继续跌？

a little bit here wanting to know what you guys think about kinda going all in or keep buying little by little as it keeps coming down?

你们觉得关键的支撑位在哪里？

Where do you see obviously your major support levels?

如果能分享一下你们对入手这个股票的看法，我会非常感激。

Any information on what you think about buying in on it would be appreciated.

谢谢。

Thanks.

CVS就是大型的CVS健康公司。

CVS is, of course, the behemoth CVS Health Corporation.

它是一家整合型医疗巨头。

It is an integrated health care giant.

业务分为三大板块：医疗福利，比如Aetna保险和联邦医疗保险优势计划；医疗服务，比如Caremark的处方药服务；还有零售药房和消费者健康板块，全球共有近一万家门店。

They operate under three segments, their health care benefits, so Aetna insurance, as well as Medicare Advantage, their health services, so think Caremark, their prescriptions, and their pharmacy and consumer wellness, that there are 9,900 retail pharmacies globally.

他们是唯一一家同时位列美国前三大的保险公司、前三大的药品福利管理公司，以及最大的连锁药房的企业。

They are the only company that is actually simultaneously a top three insurer, a top three PBM, and the largest pharmacy chain in America.

这是一家规模相当大的公司，市值高达1110亿美元，总负债约1857亿美元。

So it's pretty large company, $111,000,000,000 market cap company, about 185.7 in total liabilities.

他们最近在5月6日发布了财报，也就是两天前，营收和每股收益都远超预期，还上调了全年指引。

Now they recently reported earnings on May 6, which was two days ago, where they had a massive beat on both revenue and earnings per share as well as raising full year guidance.

但即便如此，股价在财报当天还是下跌了1.6%。

But in spite of that, stock still fell 1.6% in earnings day.

而今天，股价又涨了3.65%。

Then today, was up 3.65%.

不过总的来说，从去年四月以来，股价已经从大约每股73美元涨到了90.55美元，今年至今累计上涨了14%。

But regardless, in the past month or so, since the April, price has risen from about $73 per share to about $90.55, and year to date it's up 14%.

相比之下，整个医疗行业其他公司的表现就没这么好了。

Now compare that to the rest of the healthcare industry, not doing too hot.

除了指引上调，他们的医疗福利业务全年调整后运营利润预计达到40亿到43亿美元，比上一次预测高出4.2亿美元。

Now along with that guide, they also saw healthcare benefits full year adjusted operating income to about 4 to 4,300,000,000, that's up $420,000,000 from their most recent guide.

这可以说是2026年医疗行业里最引人注目的大盘股反弹故事了。

It's really been, I would say the most dramatic large cap healthcare recovery story of 2026.

股价从52周低点涨了55%，最近的财报清楚地显示，这种转变已经带来了实实在在的成果。

It's up 55% from its fifty two week low, and the turnaround has really shown, as we can see in this most recent print, it's been showing tangible results.

尽管医保计划的报销压力和医疗成本趋势依然存在，但这些因素市场还没完全抛开。

And that's in spite of reimbursement pressure from their pharmacy for Medicare Advantage medical cost trends, Because that really does remain the persistent structural overhang that the market hasn't fully dismissed.

对吧？

Right?

2024年和2025年的大部分时间里，股价都没什么大动静。

You're not seeing crazy movement here for most of 2024 and 2025.

一直在一个区间里震荡。

It was range bound.

我说啊，每股收益超预期16%以上，再加上上调指引，这可不是虚的。

I would say I mean, the 16 plus percent earnings per share beat in the guidance raise, that's real.

当前股价对应的运营现金流收益率超过95亿美元，这可是实打实的。

The 9,500,000,000 plus operating cash flow yield at current prices, that's that's real.

但这么大的业绩超预期，股价反而跌了1.6%，这说明市场在说：你得在第二季度再证明一次，尤其是Aetna的利润率，这恰恰是我们在等待他们七月财报前，最该关注的问题。

But the 1.6% drop on this massive beat is the market essentially saying prove it again in q two, especially the Aetna margins that you had, and that's exactly the right challenge to frame your state of mind as we approach their next quarter's earnings in July.

目前股价对应未来盈利的市盈率大约是11倍。

And so right now, it's trading about 11 times price to forward looking earnings.

已经接近它近期区间的高点。

It is near the high of its range.

股息收益率大概在3.4%左右。

It's got a dividend yield about 3.4%.

尽管有这些因素，我依然非常看好CVS。

In spite of all that, I really do like CVS.

我可能会考虑先建一半的仓位。

I'd probably think to open a half position here.

你可不希望看到成本压力在第二季度压垮股价，结果自己站错了边。

You know, you don't wanna see those cost pressures really beat it down in the second quarter and find yourself on the offsides on this trade.

所以如果股价回落到80.85美元附近，我可能会考虑建一半的仓位。

So we came back down to the $80.85 level, I'd probably think of opening a half position.

等二季度的数据出来之后，你就能做出完整的判断了。

And then once it shows you, whatever it shows you in q two, you can make a full decision there.

这就是CVS健康公司。

That is CVS Health Corporation.

谢谢你的来电。

Thanks for the call.

接下来的四十五分钟左右，我们要聊的内容很多，首先是我最关注的——人工智能资本的军备竞赛。

Now we got a lot of ground to cover in the next forty five minutes or so, and it all starts off with my main focus point about the arms race for AI capital.

我们会讨论Anthropic、高盛和私募股权如何重塑投资格局，以及这些机构如何瞄准私募股权旗下的企业，这表明人工智能的变现正坚定地走出硅谷，进入主流企业的财务领域。

We'll talk about how Anthropic, Goldman, and private equity are reshaping investment, and how all these ventures are targeting private equity owned companies, signaling that AI monetization is moving decisively beyond Silicon Valley and into main street corporate finance.

这不仅仅是件小事，而是理解真正的人工智能资金流向的关键时刻。

This is, more than anything, a landmark moment for understanding where the real AI money is going to be flowing.

我们还会简单回顾一下昨天没来得及讲的两个话题。

We'll also touch on two stories that we didn't quite get to yesterday.

一个是航油价格上涨，航空公司是怎么应对的；另一个是内存领域，它在科技板块里一直是个异常火热的细分赛道。

One, on the rising cost of jet fuel and how airlines are dealing with that, and another on memory and how that has been a hot, hot, hot subsector within the tech space.

我们还准备了一些语音银行的来电，包括达美乐披萨，股票代码DPZ，我最喜欢的‘ closet 餐饮链’——其实它是一家科技公司，还有价值股，以及来自Invesco SCA YouTube频道评论区的一些观众提问。

We also have some voice bank calls ready to play, including Domino's Pizza, ticker DPZ, my favorite closet food chain that's actually a tech company, and value stocks, as well as some questions that came in from the comment section of the Invesco SCA YouTube channel.

当然，现在或者节目任何时段，都欢迎你提出任何关于金融和投资的问题。

And, of course, I welcome your finance and investment questions now or anytime throughout the show.

我们马上进入一个短暂的休息。

We are going into a quick break.

别忘了，随时都可以拨打Invest Talk语音银行留下你的问题。

Please remember you can call anytime and leave your questions on the Invest Talk Voice Bank.

如果你是通过直播收听，或者在湾区AM 12:20频率收听，现在就拨打88899 chart跟我联系。

If you're listening via our livestream or on AM 12:20 in the Bay Area, call me now at 88899 chart.

接下来，我们聊聊今天的市场动态。

Up next, we'll talk about today's market activity.

当你向朋友推荐Invest Talk，他们问你为什么听，你可以告诉他们理由很多，其中一个就是‘平行投资’。

When you tell your friends about Invest Talk and they ask you why you listen, let them know there are many reasons, and one is parallel investing.

来自KPP Financial和Invesco S。

From KPP Financial and Invesco S.

贾斯汀·克莱因。

Justin Klein.

平行投资的意思是，贾斯汀会跟KPP金融的客户同步操作。

Parallel investing means Justin invests right alongside KPP Financial clients.

他每天都会和KPP客户在同一时间、以相同价格、相同比例进行同样的交易。

He makes the same trade for KPP Financial on the same day, at the same price, and the same percentages as KPP clients.

没有抢先交易，也没有特殊待遇。

There's no front running and no special treatment.

这样一来，贾斯汀和KPP金融就跟客户承担同样的风险，也分享同样的收益机会。

In this way, Justin and KPP Financial share the same risks and the same potential for success.

平行投资让贾斯汀和KPP金融的利益与客户完全一致。

Parallel investing aligns the interests of Justin and KPP Financial with those of his clients.

贾斯汀·克莱因和卢克·格雷罗现在准备回答大家关于平行投资的问题。

Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero are ready to answer your questions about parallel investing.

更多详情随时可以访问investtalk.com。

And you can learn more anytime at investtalk.com.

这些电话是免费的。

The calls are free.

客观的回答也是免费的。

The unbiased answers are free.

那你还等什么？

So what are you waiting for?

拨打Invest Talk吧。

Call Invest Talk.

8809

8809

今天美国股市收涨，标普和纳斯达克双双创下新高，原因你猜到了——又是半导体引领的科技股上涨。

US stocks closing higher today with the S and P and Nasdaq setting fresh record closes on the back of, you guessed it, another semi led tech rally.

纳斯达克当天上涨了1.7%。

The Nasdaq surged 1.7% on the day.

标普上涨了80个基点。

The S and P gained 80 basis points.

罗素2000指数上涨了75个基点。

Russell two thousand added 75 basis points.

而道指就不妙了，基本没动。

And the Dow, unfortunately for the Dow, flat.

平等权重的标普指数却讲了另一个故事。

Breath told a overall different story.

平等权重的标普比市值加权的指数低了大约50个基点，再次凸显了市场对集中度的严重担忧——这种担忧其实早就积攒很久了。

The equal weight S and P lagged the cap weighted by about 50 basis points, underscoring once again, are serious concerns about concentration, and those concerns have been building over time.

现在半导体和存储芯片的表现非常强劲。

Now semis and memory had a very strong session.

它们延续了AI算力和资本开支需求这一主线，这已经是过去六周以来最主导的市场主题了。

They extended the AI compute and CapEx demand themes that's really been the dominant market story for at least the past six weeks.

机械动力板块依然提供支撑，但那种过度炒作和泡沫的担忧并没有真正消退。

Mechanical Dynamics continue to provide support, though the ramp in superlatives and froth concerns hasn't really gone away.

特斯拉、英伟达和苹果领涨科技七巨头，网络、医疗管理、炼油和油气服务板块当天也表现突出。

Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple led the Mag seven networking managed care refiners, and oil services also outperformed on the day.

能源巨头和保险公司周四表现强劲。

There's a strength while integrated energy large caps and and, insurers showed that strength on Thursday.

有点反转的意思。

Bit of a reversal.

对吧？

Right?

今天这些股票就落后了。

You saw those names lagging today.

就业报告整体不错。

The jobs report was overall positive.

四月非农就业人数增加了11.5万，几乎是市场预期6.2万的两倍，而且三月的数据还被上修到了18.5万。

April nonfarm payrolls came in at a 115,000, nearly double the 62,000 consensus, and March was actually revised up to a 185,000.

同时，失业率维持在4.3%，平均时薪增长略弱，这其实是个刚刚好的组合。

The unemployment rate at the same time held at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings came in a bit softer, which is really a Goldilocks combination.

分析师初步看法认为，这对利率预期影响不大，美联储大概率会按兵不动。

Early analyst takes suggest a little impact on the rate narrative the Fed seen remaining on a holding pattern.

与人工智能相关的裁员仍在持续，时不时就上新闻头条。

AI related job cuts, they do continue to show and generate headlines over time.

但整体来看，劳动力市场依然稳固。

But, I mean, the broader labor market, it's still holding up.

至于消费者情绪，情况就不太一样了。

Now consumer sentiment, that was a different story.

五月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值跌至48.2，创下1952年以来的新低。

Preliminary May Michigan sentiment dropped to 48.2, a fresh low in data stretching back to 1952.

主要拖累来自当前状况，报告指出，人们对物价高企和大额消费的购买环境担忧加剧。

Current conditions being the big drag here, with the release noting a surge in concerns about high prices and buying conditions for major purchases.

在通胀方面，未来一年的预期通胀率从4.7%微降至4.5%，五年期预期也有所回落。

Now on the inflation front, year ahead expectations actually ticked down to 4.5 from 4.7, and the five year measure dipped as well.

这算是阴霾中的一点小亮色。

It's a small positive in what was an otherwise gloomy consumer read.

地缘政治方面，美伊最新紧张局势仍被市场视为噪音而非实质性消息，美国坚持停火协议依然有效，对外交解决的预期也仍维持在较高水平。

Now on the geopolitical front, The latest US Iran flare ups continue to be treated as more noise than news with The US insisting the ceasefire remains intact and expectations for a diplomatic solution still a bit elevated.

不过，一些疑虑依然存在。

Now pockets of skepticism, they do persist.

由于核问题和霍尔木兹海峡的关键分歧，即便有外交进展，也难以缓解实际的供应中断。

Given key nuclear and Strait Of Hormuz sticking points and reported diplomatic traction doesn't really alleviate the physical supply disruption.

因此，原油价格小幅收涨，但全周仍下跌了超过6%。

Because of this, crude oil settled up marginally but was down more than 6% for the week.

财报方面，标普500指数中已有超过89%的公司公布了第一季度业绩。

Now in earnings, more than 89% of the S and P 500 has now reported for q one.

89%。

89%.

其中很多公司都超出了预期，还上调了指引。

And a lot of those beat and guidance raises.

国债收益率小幅下行，下降了两到三个基点。

Treasury's a bit firmer with yields down two to three basis points.

美元微跌0.2%，黄金和白银也都略有上涨。

The dollar slipped two tenths of a percent, and gold and silver both edged a bit higher.

下周财报日程会稍微缓一缓，但宏观方面依然很忙，尤其是美国通胀数据和特朗普峰会。

Now next week, the earnings calendar gets a breather, but macro stays pretty busy with The US inflation data and Trump g summit.

后者因为伊朗局势变得更加复杂，不过市场还是会密切关注是否有任何关于稀土、芯片、大豆，或者人民币的贸易协议迹象。

The latter has been complicated, to say the least, by the Iran Conflict, but the market will be watching closely for any signs of a trade deal around rare earths, around chips, soybeans, or discussions around the renminbi.

好的。

Alright.

我们再回到Invesco S的话题。

Let's pivot back to the Invesco S.

另一个听众的问题。

Another listener question.

嗨，各位。

Hey, guys.

我想问问达美乐披萨，也就是DPZ这家公司。

I am inquiring about Domino's, DPZ.

疫情后他们一度冲到历史高点，后来跌了，现在又反弹回来，想再次挑战历史高点。

They were at all time high post COVID, and then they went down, came back up again, trying to retest the all time high.

但从那以后，股价就一路下滑了。

But then since then, it's been going downhill.

这到底是怎么回事？

What is going on with this?

你们怎么看？

What do you guys think?

另外，我看了下他们的财务数据。

And, also, I was looking at some of their financials.

他们的市净率根本不存在。

It doesn't have a price to book ratio.

有分析工具显示，每股净资产是负数。

Or one of the application has said that the price to book value per share is negative.

这到底意味着什么？是负债太高了，还是我哪里理解错了？

What does it really mean in terms of does it have a lot of liability, or, I'm not understanding something right?

我是在播客里听到这个说法的。

I will be hearing that in podcast.

再次感谢大家提供这么多信息。

Thank you guys again for all the information.

再见。

Bye.

比萨店是全球最大的比萨连锁品牌。

Pizza is the world's largest pizza chain.

他们在90多个市场拥有超过两万两千家门店，其中99%都是特许经营。

They have over 22,000 stores across 90 plus markets, and 99% of them are franchised.

美国门店的销售额只占他们总收入的大约三分之一。

US store sales only makes up about 33% of their revenue.

国际特许经营占7%左右，他们的轻资产模式每年在全球系统销售额达到200亿美元。

They're international franchises, about 7%, and they really have an asset light model of about 20,000,000,000 in annual global system sales.

他们昨天刚创下52周新低，股价为322.17美元，自4月27日财报发布以来，股价一直在明显下跌。

Now they recently hit a fresh fifty two week low of $322.17 yesterday, and the stock is in a pretty active decline from earnings on April 27.

他们的营收比预期低了大约2%。

They missed on revenue by about 2%.

每股收益比预期低了大约百分之三点五到四，净利润同比下滑了百分之六。

Earnings per share missed by about three and a half to 4%, and net income declined 6% year over year.

这家股票在疫情前可是香饽饽。

Now this stock was a darling pre pandemic.

对吧？

Right?

以前大家都说，这根本不是一家披萨公司，而是披着披萨外衣的科技公司。

This was a company that people said was a pizza company masquer sorry, a tech company masquerading as a pizza company.

为什么这么说？

Why?

因为他们比同行更早地把技术融入了整个供应链。

Because they integrated technology early relative to other businesses in their supply chain.

顾客在线下单，订单自动流转，全程在线完成。

People would order online, orders would be routed online, it would be fulfilled online.

像星巴克这样的公司常面临一个问题：需求太大，服务跟不上去，而这家公司很大程度上解决了这个问题。

One of the biggest problems that some companies like Starbucks, for example, face is that they have so much demand without being able to efficiently service customers, this company in a lot of ways solve that problem.

但我想说的是，现在的估值是这几年来最低的。

But one thing I would say here is that it's at its cheapest valuation in years.

这股票以前可是卖到37倍的预期市盈率。

Mean, this thing used to trade at 37 times price to forward looking earnings.

虽然公司正在以52周低点进行回购，但我认为，除非美国同店销售额有明显改善，否则我不会考虑进场。

It has a buyback running at fifty two week lows, but I think that The US same store sales trajectory needs to improve materially before I would look to enter here.

业绩差的时候，可别急着买这只股票。

You don't wanna buy this coming off of bad earnings.

至于你问的价格与账面价值比，这里根本没有，因为股东权益的账面价值是负的。

Now to quickly answer your question, there is no price to book on this because the book value of equity is negative here.

也就是说，总资产减去总负债之后是负数。

That's when your total assets minus your total liabilities is negative.

公司欠的钱比它账面上所有资产加起来还多，这主要是因为它的轻资产模式。

The company owes more than everything it owns on paper, and that's because it's an asset light model.

但这并不一定就是坏事。

It's not necessarily a bad thing.

这其实只是关于企业资产的会计处理方式。

It's just about the accounting of what the business owns.

我们即将迎来一个新的突破。

We're headed to a new break.

接下来我主要关注的点就要来了，当然，也还会继续回答大家关于金融和投资的问题，欢迎收听《Invest Talk》。

My main focus point is coming up and, of course, more answers to your finance and investment questions here on Invest Talk.

早期的Invest是由杰里·克莱因和史蒂夫·皮斯利共同创办的。

In the early days, Invest was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

现在接力棒已经交到新一代主持人手中，那就是贾斯汀·克莱因和卢克·格雷罗。

Now the torch has been passed, and a new generation of hosts is on the job, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

所以当你有金融或投资方面的问题时，别忘了拨打Invest Talk的热线，88899。

So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call Invest Talk, 88899

上星期一，开发Claude AI模型的公司Anthropic宣布与黑石、海曼和弗里德曼以及高盛达成一项15亿美元的合资项目。

So on Monday, Anthropic, the company behind the Plaud AI model, announced a $1,500,000,000 joint venture with Blackstone, Hellman and Friedman, and Goldman Sachs.

阿波罗、泛大西洋资本、伦纳德·格林、GIC和红杉资本也参与了这项投资。

Apollo, General Atlantic, Leonard Green, GIC, and Sequoia Capital are also backing the effort.

Anthropic、黑石和海曼与弗里德曼各自出资大约三亿美元。

Anthropic, Blackstone, and Hellman and Friedman are each contributing roughly 300,000,000.

高盛再投十五亿，其余资金来自这个更广泛的财团。

Goldman's in for another 150,000,000, and the rest comes from that broader consortium.

这可不是一个基金。

Now this isn't a fund.

也不是一份咨询合同。

It isn't a consulting contract.

而是一家独立公司，会把Anthropic的工程师直接派驻到中型企业，主要是私募股权旗下的公司，帮助它们用AI重塑运营流程。

It is a stand alone company that will embed Anthropic engineers directly inside mid sized businesses, primarily private equity portfolio companies in order to redesign their operations around AI.

这家公司会把Claude整合进医疗、制造、金融、物流和零售等核心业务流程中。

Now the firm will deploy Claud into core workflows across health care, across manufacturing and financial services and logistics and retail.

单是黑石就有数百家被投企业，再加上高盛、阿波罗和泛大西洋的投资组合。

Blackstone alone has hundreds of portfolio companies and Goldman's, Apollo, and General Atlantic's portfolio.

这等于直接打通了数千家企业的客户渠道。

You're looking at a built in client pipeline spanning thousands of businesses.

这标志着我们终于看清了AI商业化的发展方向，也清楚地表明这项技术已经进入了哪个成熟阶段。

This is a landmark moment for understanding where AI monetization is heading, and it tells you something very specific about where we are in the technology's maturity cycle.

过去三年，AI的收入几乎全集中在基础设施领域。

For the past three years, AI revenue has been overwhelmingly concentrated in infrastructure.

比如英伟达卖显卡、云服务商卖算力、数据中心运营商扩建机房。

Think NVIDIA selling GPUs, cloud providers selling compute, and data center operators building capacity.

模型提供方，像Anthropic、OpenAI这些公司，主要靠API调用和订阅产品赚钱。

The model providers themselves, your Anthropics, your OpenAI, they generated revenue through API access and subscription prod products.

但真正的机会一直在于企业转型——把AI模型真正融入公司的日常运营中。

But the real prize has always been enterprise transformation, taking AI models and embedding them into how companies actually operate.

问题一直在于人才严重短缺。

The problem has been a massive talent bottleneck.

能同时理解前沿AI技术和实际商业运作的工程师实在太少了，根本没法大规模落地。

There simply aren't enough engineers who understand both frontier AI and real world business operations to deploy the technology at scale.

光有模型是没用的，它不会自动改变你的工作流程，你真正需要的是那些能把技术跟业务实际需求结合起来的人。

Having the model alone doesn't change your workflows or how you operate, you actually need the people who can combine the technology with what's actually happening in the business.

现在，这个项目正是Anthropic对这一瓶颈的回应。

Now this venture is Anthropic's answer to that bottleneck.

与其等着企业自己摸索AI的落地，或者依赖麦肯锡、埃森哲这类传统咨询公司，Anthropic直接组建了自己的部署团队，拥有自有资金和稳定的客户群。

Rather than waiting for companies to figure out AI adoption on their own or relying on traditional consulting firms like McKinsey or Accenture to do it, Anthropic is essentially building its own deployment arm with captive capital and a captive customer base.

《财富》杂志将此视为Anthropic直接向咨询行业发起挑战。

Fortune framed it as Anthropic taking a shot at the consulting industry itself.

而从经济角度看，这种说法确实站得住脚。

And the economics support that framing.

企业每花一美元在软件上，就会花大约六美元在服务上。

For every dollar companies spend on software, they spend roughly 6 on services.

咨询和系统集成市场的规模高达万亿美元级别。

The consulting and systems integration market is measured in trillions.

如果AI原生企业能拿下其中哪怕一小部分服务支出，带来的收入潜力将是巨大的。

If AI native firms can capture even a fraction of that service spend, the revenue implications are huge.

如今，AI公司与传统企业软件之间的竞争格局，正在发生转变。

Now the competitive landscape between AI companies and traditional enterprise software, it's shifting.

据报道，OpenAI 正在与 TPG 和 Bain 推行一个几乎完全相同的模式，这意味着两大顶尖 AI 实验室现在都在打造由私募股权支持的落地引擎。

A OpenAI is reportedly pursuing a near identical structure with TPG and Bain, so both leading AI labs are now building PE backed deployment engines.

这意味着 AI 模型之间的竞争，不再只是看谁的性能指标更优，而是看谁能更广泛地渗透到企业中。

This means AI models aren't just competing against each other on capability benchmarks, they're competing on distribution.

谁的模型能更深地嵌入到更多公司里，谁就能胜出——因为一旦企业的流程围绕你的模型重新设计过，换别的模型的成本就高得吓人。

The lab that gets embedded inside the most companies is gonna win because once you've redesigned a company's workflow around your specific model, switching costs become very high.

这跟 Salesforce、Oracle 和 SAP 如何成为行业霸主的套路一模一样：不是靠软件本身最厉害，而是成了企业离不开的底层操作系统。

It's the same playbook that made Salesforce, Oracle, and s a p SAP dominant, not by being the best software, but by becoming the operating system that businesses can't remove.

而对私募股权来说，这笔交易揭示了一种全新的价值创造逻辑。

Now for private equity specifically, this deal reveals a new value creation thesis.

过去，私募基金总是通过裁员、优化流程或提升管理来改善被收购公司的运营，但 AI 给了他们一个强大得多的工具箱。

PE firms have always tried to improve the operations of companies they acquire by cutting costs or optimizing processes or professionalizing management, but AI gives them a dramatically more powerful toolkit for that work.

如果黑石能把 Claud 部署到旗下公司，既能砍掉 20% 的人力，又能提升产出，那这笔投资的回报立刻就能看得见、算得清。

If Blackstone can deploy Claud across a portfolio company and reduce headcount by 20% while improving output, the return on that investment is immediate and measurable.

AI 到底是真能创造价值，还是只是泡沫，这笔交易给出了一个清晰的答案。

The question of whether AI is a genuine value creation tool or still largely hype gets a clear answer from this deal.

当黑石、高盛和阿波罗这样的公司 collectively 投入十五亿美元，把某个特定模型嵌入真实运营的企业时，我猜他们早就做过充分调研了。

When companies like Blackstone and Goldman and Apollo collectively commit 1,500,000,000 to deploy a specific model inside real operating businesses, They've, I presume, done the diligence.

这些公司衡量回报的单位是基点。

These are firms that measure returns in basis points.

他们不会为了炒作就开出三亿美元的支票。

They don't write $300,000,000 checks for hype.

Venture 被设计成一家独立的服务公司，而不是研究实验室或基金，这说明它的重点在于落地执行和可衡量的结果，而不是理论上的潜力。

The fact that Venture is structured as a standalone services company, not a research lab, not a fund, tells you the focus is on implementation and measurable outcomes, not theoretical potential.

对于散户投资者来说，要参与 AI 在金融服务领域的应用，就得跳出那些显而易见的名字来思考。

For retail investors, getting exposure to AI's financial services application requires thinking beyond the obvious names.

Anthropic 并不是一家上市公司，尽管传闻它曾洽谈融资，估值可能高达九千亿美元。

Anthropic is not a publicly traded company that was reportedly in talks for financing that could value it at $900,000,000,000.

OpenAI 也不是。

Neither is OpenAI.

首先，你可以看看这些私募股权公司本身。

First, you might wanna look at the PE firms themselves.

这些公司让你间接参与到这家风投所推动的价值创造中。

Those companies give you indirect exposure to value creation this venture is designed to produce.

其次，是基础设施提供商。

Second, the infrastructure providers.

Anthropic 的模型运行在云基础设施上，主要是 AWS，而 AWS 也是 Anthropic 的主要投资人之一。

Anthropic's models run on cloud infrastructure, primarily AWS, which is also a major Anthropic investor.

内存芯片制造商同样受益于算力需求的增长。

The memory chipmakers, they benefit from the compute demands as well.

第三，那些作为合作伙伴或目标客户的企业的软件公司。

Third, the enterprise software companies that are either partners or targets.

Anthropic 在推出这项风投计划的同时，宣布了与 Microsoft 365 的全面整合，这意味着 Claud 现在可以直接嵌入 Excel、Word 和 Outlook 里使用。

Anthropic announced a full Microsoft three sixty five integration alongside the venture, meaning Claud now operates inside Excel, Word, and Outlook.

像 Palantir 这样的公司，最早推行了这种派驻工程师的模式，而这次风投正是复制了这一模式；还有 Salesforce，它正在开发自己的 AI 代理。这些公司是赢家还是输家，取决于他们是合作伙伴还是竞争对手。

Companies like Palantir, which pioneered the forward deployed engineer model that this venture replicates, and Salesforce, which is building its own AI agents, are both potential winners and potential losers depending on whether they're partners or competitors.

归根结底，AI 领域的资本军备竞赛已经进入了一个新阶段。

Now the bottom line here is the AI capital arms race has entered a new phase.

资金正从基础设施转向实际应用。

The money is moving from infrastructure to implementation.

赢得企业部署竞赛的实验室，而不是只比基准测试的，才能创造最持久的收入。

The lab that wins, the enterprise deployment race, not just the benchmark race, will generate the most durable revenue.

全球最顶尖的金融机构纷纷投入数十亿美元支持落地应用，这最有力地表明，人工智能已经从理论潜力转变为实实在在的商业价值。

And the fact that the world's most sophisticated financial firms are backing the deployment with billions of dollars of their own is the strongest signal yet that AI has crossed from theoretical potential to measurable business value.

下一期《景顺谈话》，我们会深入探讨这个故事。

On the next Invesco Talk, we'll look into this story.

市场很热，但正是在这里，投资者最容易受伤。

The market is hot, but there but this is where investors get hurt.

股价不断创新高，但通胀、油价、利率和房地产都在发出警报。

Stocks are pushing highs, but inflation, oil, rates, and housing, they're all flashing.

保持纪律。

Stay disciplined.

这是周一。

That's Monday.

目前我是卢克·格雷罗，随时欢迎拨打88899 chart 和我联系。

For now, I'm Luke Guerrero, ready to take your calls anytime at 88899 chart.

你有没有发现，有些日子打开衣橱挑衣服时，怎么都找不到一件让你觉得‘就是它了’的？

Have you ever noticed that on some days when you open your closet to select what you want to wear, you may not see clothing that makes you think, okay, this is perfect.

以前我天天经历这种情况，但现在不会了，因为我开始用Quince了。

Well, that experience used to be my experience, but no longer because I'm using Quince.

如果你希望每天穿衣更用心，想选一些穿着舒服、自然，又不失得体的单品，

If your instinct is to be more intentional about what you wear day to day and you wanna lean into pieces that feel easy and comfortable, yet still look put together and balanced.

那Quince就是你的不二之选。

Quince should be your go to.

面料质感高级，剪裁简洁利落，每件衣服都刚刚好，根本不用费劲搭配。

The fabrics feel elevated, the fits are clean, and everything just works without needing to overthink it.

Quince让每天穿衣服变得更简单。

Quince makes getting dressed simpler.

Quince为春季准备了所有必备的基础款。

Quince has all the wardrobe staples for spring.

100%欧洲亚麻短裤和衬衫，价格从34美元起。

Think 100 European linen shorts and shirts from $34.

轻盈、透气，穿着特别舒服。

Lightweight, breathable, and comfortable.

还有100%皮马棉T恤，柔软度得亲身体会才懂。

And clean 100% Pima cotton tees with a softness that's gotta be felt.

他们的裤子剪裁也很到位，宽松舒适，但又足够得体，去哪儿都能穿。

Their pants also hit a good balance, relaxed and comfortable, but still polished enough to wear pretty much anywhere.

Quince的所有产品价格比同类品牌低50%到80%。

Everything from Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than what you'd find at similar brands.

Quince直接合作道德工厂，去掉中间环节，让你以实惠价格买到高品质面料。

Quince works directly with Ethical Factories and cuts out the middleman, so you're getting premium materials without the markup.

这是我衣橱里的一件例子。

Here's an example from my wardrobe.

我最近买了他们家的牛仔夹克，穿起来既好看又舒服，我都忍不住反复穿。

I picked up one of their denim jackets recently, and it looks and feels so nice that I keep going back to it.

用真正会穿的奢侈品，焕新你的日常穿搭。

Refresh your everyday with luxury you'll actually use.

前往 quince.com/invest，享受免运费服务，还有365天无理由退换。

Head to quince.com/invest for free shipping on your order and three hundred and sixty five day returns.

访问 quince.com/invest，免运费加365天退换保障。

That's quince.com/invest for free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns.

quince.com/invest。

Quince.com/invest.

现在加拿大也能下单了。

Now available in Canada too.

没人告诉你全球招聘时，费用有多难捉摸。

One thing no one tells you about hiring globally is how unclear the costs can be.

一开始看着挺简单，结果各种费用接二连三冒出来。

It looks simple at first, and then the fees start stacking up.

但我可以明确告诉你这一点。

But I can tell you this.

Pebl 通过透明的一站式招聘成本，帮你轻松雇佣全球人才。

Pebl brings clarity with upfront all in hiring costs and enables you to hire the world.

没错。

That's right.

Pebl 是一个由人工智能驱动的全球人力资源平台，专为创始人、人力资源负责人和运营者打造，助你招聘并支持世界各地的团队。

Pebl is an AI powered global human resources platform built for founders, HR leaders, and operators who are hiring and supporting teams around the world.

Pebl 能让你在 185 个国家招聘、发薪和管理员工，入职流程几分钟就能搞定。

Pebl helps you hire, pay, and manage talent in over a 185 countries with fast onboarding that can be done in minutes.

不用再分别处理合同、薪资、福利和合规这些不同工具，Pebl 把所有功能整合在一起，还内置了专业指导和本地化支持。

Instead of juggling separate tools for contracts, payroll, benefits, and compliance, Pebl brings everything together with built in guidance and local expertise to support you.

如果你正在管理跨国团队，或者打算拓展海外业务，这一点尤其有用。

This is especially helpful if you're managing teams internationally or planning to grow.

全球增长最快的公司都在用 Pebl 来保持有序、降低风险。

The fastest growing companies in the world use Pebl to stay organized and reduce risk.

创始人用它来快速扩张，而不用逼自己变成 HR 或合规专家。

And founders use it to scale faster without feeling like they need to become HR or compliance experts.

简单来说。

Here's the bottom line.

Pebl 让全球人力资源管理变得简单，让你能腾出更多时间专注业务增长和团队支持。

Pebl simplifies global people operations so you can spend more time growing the business and supporting your team.

他们新推出的优惠定价，每人每月仅 399 美元，帮你有效控制成本。

Their new standard discounted pricing at $399 USD per month per employee helps you contain costs.

访问 highpebble.ai 获取免费估算。

Go to highpebble.ai to get a free estimate.

就是 highpebl.ai，免费估算等你来拿。

That's highpebl.ai for a free estimate.

周末到了，或者快到了，但你还有财务和投资方面的问题。

The weekend is here or almost here, but you've got finance and investment questions.

那就赶紧打进来吧。

So step up and call in.

Invest Talk，号码是 88899。

Invest Talk, 88899 chart.

我七十岁了，已经退休。

I'm 70 year old, retired.

我大概有百分之二十五到三十的资金放在现金和债券里。

I have about 25 to 30% in cash and bonds.

考虑到现在的经济形势，是不是该考虑把债券撤出来，多投一些价值型股票呢？

And considering the current state in the economy, is it worth considering getting out of bonds and going into value stocks, more into value stocks?

感谢你所做的所有工作。

Thanks for all you do.

再见。

Bye bye.

这是个很好的问题，尤其是对你这样正处于开始动用积蓄、依靠投资收益生活的阶段的人来说。

That's a great question, especially for somebody who is in the phase of their life where they're starting to draw down and rely on income generated from the portfolio or divesting from some of those assets to create their own income stream.

过去传统上，特别是在2010年代，靠债券来满足这种需求是完全没问题的。

Now traditionally speaking, and certainly this was true in the twenty tens, you could do a lot better by, you know, you could you could fulfill that need by relying on bonds.

但最近几年，看看2022年之后发生了什么。

But in the past couple years, look what happened coming out of 2022.

很多人靠债券收益生活，但他们投资的通常是债券型ETF，而不是直接持有单只债券，所以到期时拿不回本金。

People who relied on bond income and most people invest in bond ETFs, not the individual bonds themselves, which means they're not getting the value back at maturity.

看看GLT发生了什么，那是历史上一次巨大的财富缩水。

Just look what happened to GLT, a historic level of wealth destruction.

在当前这种可能推高利率的通胀环境下，持有现金和债券反而可能吃亏，因为你在这个人生阶段最关心的不是财富增长。

And so in this inflationary environment that may lead to higher rates, holding cash and holding bonds can hurt because the thing you're concerned about in this phase of your life isn't about wealth generation or growth.

而是你的资产能否跟上生活成本的上涨。

It's about your assets keeping up with the costs of living.

所以在通胀时期，适当转向价值型股票是个不错的选择，因为这类股票在高通胀时通常表现更好。

And so certainly in an inflationary environment, diversifying away into value stocks, which tend to do better in times of high inflation.

我不是说要把全部资产都投进股票，但相比中性环境，适当增加股票的配置比例，在当前通胀时期是有利的。

And I'm not saying put your portfolio a 100% in stocks, but having a larger slice than you otherwise might in a neutral environment, I think, is beneficial in these inflationary times.

谢谢你的来电。

Thanks for the call.

接下来我们播放一条来自8899 Chart的语音留言。

We're gonna do a voicemail next from eighty eight ninety nine Chart.

你好。

Hey.

我是来自北加州的杰克。

This is Jake from Northern California.

我打电话是想问问关于PSCE，也就是Invesco小盘能源基金的事。

I'm calling to ask about PSCE, the Invesco SmallCap Energy Fund.

我现在持有这只基金。

I currently own it.

它占了我的退休账户总资产的大约6%。

It is, about 6% of my overall portfolio in a retirement account.

我对能源板块挺看好的。

I like energy.

我主要是想听听你们对这只小盘基金的看法。

I'm really just calling to see what you guys think of this SmallCap fund.

如果你们觉得我该退出，那再好不过了。

But if you guys think this is something I should get out of, that'd be great.

非常感谢。

Appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

PSCE是先锋标普小盘能源ETF。

PSCE is the Invesco S and P SmallCap Energy ETF.

不过大多数人不像我这么痴迷指数。

Now most people are not index nerds like I am.

你看到‘标普小盘600’，就会以为这是个纯粹的小盘股指数。

And so you see the S and P SmallCap six hundred and you think this is a small cap index.

但标普指数不是像罗素那样靠明确规则选股的，它是靠委员会决定的。

But the S and P is not a rules based index like the Russell is where they just do a name count approach.

所以标普600里很多成分股其实根本不是小盘股。

The S and P six hundred is constituted by committee, meaning oftentimes the names in there aren't small caps.

实际上，这个基金里87%是中盘股，只有大约12%是小盘股。

In fact, 87% of this portfolio is mid caps, only about 12% of the portfolio is small caps.

这其实没什么问题。

And so there's nothing wrong with that.

对吧？

Right?

持有跟踪中型股的ETF本身并没有错。

There's no nothing wrong with holding a mid cap ETF, mid cap tracking ETF.

但我认为最重要的一条原则是，你要清楚自己买的是什么。

But I think the number one rule is understanding what you own.

所以当你持有这只基金时，你实际上并不是在投资能源类小盘股指数，而是在投资能源类中盘股指数。

So when you're owning this, you're not really holding a energy small cap index, you're holding an energy a mid cap index.

今年到目前为止，这只基金表现非常出色。

Now year to date, this thing is has gone gangbusters.

涨幅达到了41.2%。

It is up 41.2%.

今年截至目前，涨了41.2%。

41.2% year to date.

它的前几大重仓股在中盘股里都很有名，比如Archrock、SM能源公司和Noble公司。

Its largest names are familiar in the mid cap space, Archrock SM Energy Company, Noble Corporation.

它表现这么好，主要是因为能源板块整体涨得不错。

And it has just done well because energy has done well.

它过去一年的回报率也非常亮眼。

Its one year return is also stellar.

一年回报率达到73.25%。

One year return of 73.25%.

既然是中盘股指数，我本来以为它的管理费会高一点。

Given that it is a mid cap index, I would expect it to have a little bit higher expense ratio.

对吧？

Right?

目前费率大概在29个基点左右。

It's in about 29 basis points.

它还设了上限，确保任何一只个股的权重都不超过投资组合的4.5%。

It also has a cap to make sure that no individual securities over four and a half percent of the portfolios.

这里确实有一点主动管理和重新配置，这也多少解释了为什么费用比率略高一些。

There is a little bit of active management and reallocation here that kind of does justify that slightly higher expense ratio.

不过这只基金规模不大，只有1.23亿美元，尽管它已经运作了十五年多。

Now it is a smaller fund, only a $123,000,000 in spite of it being around for, oh, just over fifteen years.

所以这里的核心观点是：中小盘能源板块，或者说这里的中盘能源板块，是押注油价最敏感的投资方式。

And so the bold case here is SmallCap Energy, or in this case, MidCap Energy, it's the highest beta way to play oil prices.

确实如此。

Absolutely is.

但贝塔值是一把双刃剑。

But beta works both ways.

波动性也是双面的。

Volatility works both ways.

所以如果油价大幅下跌，这只基金也会像石头一样坠落，跌得比整个能源板块还要剧烈。

And so should you have a steep drop off, this thing is gonna fall like a rock as well, even more accentuated than the rest of the energy market.

这些公司的运营杠杆通常最高，油价每上涨一美元，利润几乎能直接反映在财报底部。

These companies tend to have the most operating leverage, so every dollar in increase in oil goes almost straight to the bottom line.

所以我觉得，从长期业绩来看，表现并不怎么样。

And so I will say the long term track record, not great.

如果你十年前就投资了这只基金，年化回报率是负1.345%。

If you invested in this thing ten years ago, the price return is negative 1.34 5% annualized.

如果你现在赚了不少，哪怕只是稍微赚了点——毕竟过去一年持有的话肯定有收益——我建议你开始逐步减仓。

And so I think if you're up a lot on this thing, if you're up at all on this thing, because if you've been holding it for the past year, you certainly would be, I would start to trim that down.

在中盘能源板块上配置6%，我觉得比例有点偏高了。

6% on mid cap energy, I think, is a pretty high weight.

一旦油价下跌，这只基金也会跟着大幅下挫。

And should oil prices fall, this thing is going to fall accordingly and dramatically.

这就是PSCE，Invesco标普小盘能源ETF，其实更接近中盘。

That is PSCE, the Invesco S and P SmallCap, it's really midcap, Energy ETF.

谢谢你的来电。

Thanks for the call.

到了周五，我们通常会留点时间梳理一下关键的基准数据。

That's Friday, on Friday, we tend to make a little bit of time to run down key benchmark numbers.